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Ryan Yarbrough Hires Excel Sports Management

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Rays lefty Ryan Yarbrough has hired Excel Sports Management as his new representation, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. MLBTR’s Agency Database reflects the change.

The 28-year-old Yarbrough is likely on track to qualify for arbitration next season as a Super Two player. That would mean an early entry into the process and substantially enhanced career earning power.

Yarbrough could present a fascinating test case for an arbitration system that has twice (Josh Hader, Dellin Betances) recently reaffirmed the importance of saves even as teams reduce their reliance on old forms of pitching usage. In his case, Yarbrough has thrown nearly as many innings as a traditional starter — topping 140 in each of the past two seasons — but has often done so when taking the ball from an opener.

There’s no doubting that the 28-year-old hurler has been quite a useful player for the Tampa Bay organization. He carries a 4.02 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in his 289 career frames. It certainly ought to help his cause that he has racked up 27 wins despite formally making only twenty MLB starts to this point.

This Date In Transactions History: Odo On The Move

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It has been exactly two years since the Twins bolstered their roster with a trade that continues to benefit their rotation. On Feb. 17, 2018, the Twins acquired right-hander Jake Odorizzi from the Rays for shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios.

Jake Odorizzi | Ben Ludeman-USA TODAY Sports

Odorizzi had two years of control left at the time of the deal and was entering a season in which he’d earn a reasonable $6.3MM via arbitration. The trade brought an end to months of rumors centering on Odorizzi, who garnered interest from a variety of clubs leading up to the Twins’ acquisition. It was already the third trade in Odorizzi’s career, as the 2008 second-round pick of the Brewers previously went from the Brew Crew to the Royals in a 2010 blockbuster and from Kansas City to Tampa Bay in another headline-grabber two years later.

Then entering his age-28 season, Odorizziwas coming off a successful four-year run when he arrived in Minnesota. From his first full season in 2014 through 2017, he registered 120 starts and 668 1/3 innings (30 and 167 per year, respectively) of 3.81 ERA ball. ERA indicators such as FIP (4.23) and xFIP (4.33) weren’t as favorable, but they still painted him as a quality big league starter.

Odorizzi helped his cause by logging 8.31 K/9 against 2.96 BB/9 in his four full years as a Ray, but he generated groundballs at a meager 33.9 percent clip. He still managed to dodge home runs as a member of Tampa Bay, with which he gave them up on just over 11 percent of fly balls. But Odorizzi yielded long balls more than ever in 2017, when he surrendered them a career-worst 15.5 percent of the time. He also posted a relatively bloated walk rate (3.83 per nine, compared to 7.97 K/9) en route to a 4.14 ERA with a far worse 5.43 FIP/5.10 xFIP over 143 1/3 frames.

Although Odorizzi’s last season as a Ray was mediocre, he has rebounded as a Twin. Minnesota’s version has worked to a 3.78 ERA/3.88 FIP across 62 starts and 323 1/3 innings. He still isn’t inducing grounders that often, having done so at a 31.5 percent rate, yet has recorded sub-9 percent HR-to-FB marks in both seasons with the club. Odorizzi was especially effective in 2019, which went down as his first All-Star campaign. He amassed 159 innings of 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP ball to help the Twins rack up 101 wins and take home their first AL Central title since 2010. Along the way, Odorizzi set career highs in K/9 (10.08, against 3.00 BB/9) and swinging-strike percentage (12.7), thanks in part to a noticeable increase in velocity. His fastball sat in the 90-91 mph range in previous years, but the mean jumped to 92.9 last season.

Once his personal-best campaign ended, Odorizzi looked likely to parlay his success with the Twins into a lucrative multiyear deal. Instead, though, he decided to accept the Twins’ $17.8MM qualifying offer, setting him up to stay with the hopeful World Series contenders for at least one more season. The Twins, for their part, are now in line to get three years of an important rotation cog for the affordable sum of $33.6MM (including 2018-19; Odorizzi made $9.5MM last season).

On the other hand, the Rays haven’t made out as well in the trade. Owing in part to its innovative opener strategy, the team has carried on just fine without Odorizzi, having combined for 186 wins since parting with him. The Rays made the playoffs last year and look like strong bets to challenge for the postseason again in 2020. However, it’s highly questionable whether they’ll ever receive any contributions from Palacios.

Twenty-one years old at the time of the trade, Palacios ranked as one of the Twins’ 30 best prospects during his time with the franchise, though he simply hasn’t panned out in the minors with the Rays. Palacios has reached Double-A ball in each of his two seasons with the Tampa Bay organization, but he has combined for a meek .192/.255/.272 line with three homers in 320 plate appearances at that level.

Always willing to experiment, the Rays did dabble in using Palacios as a pitcher in the minors last season, and he did show encouraging velocity during that brief stint on the mound. Still, it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll make it to the majors in any capacity. Meanwhile, the Twins will go forward content with landing one of their most valuable starters for a prospect who hasn’t found his niche to this point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Notes: Montreal, Sternberg, Mets, Roster

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Conflicting reports have emerged about a potential sale within the Rays’ ownership group, as Montreal businessman Stephen Bronfman told Rejean Tremblay of Le Journal De Montreal (hat tip to Sportsnet.ca’s Ryan McKenna for the translation) that a Bronfman-led group of investors would buy a minority share of the Rays within a few months’ time.  This statement was denied by no less than Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg himself, who told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that “there’s nothing happening in months. No way.”

As Sternberg, Bronfman, and Major League Baseball continue to explore the possibility of the Rays splitting their home schedule between St. Petersburg and Montreal come the 2028 season, Sternberg said that Bronfman’s group “eventually, at a point, I would expect and believe they could and would become minority partners….I need some representation up there.”  A partial sale wouldn’t happen, however, until construction is actually in progress on a new stadium in Montreal, Sternberg stressed.  That ballpark is still very much in the conceptual stages, as land has yet to be secured and the city of Montreal has yet to approve any building.  Still, Bronfman and the Rays are hopeful of having their two-city idea green-lit by MLB by the end of the year.

Some more from Tampa…

  • Speaking of ownership, Topkin writes in a separate piece that neither Sternberg or Rays minority owner Randy Frankel were planning a bid to potentially buy the Mets.  After plans to sell the club to Steve Cohen fell through, the Wilpon and Katz families still intend to sell the Mets.  Frankel “was involved with a group that expressed interest in 2011” in purchasing the Mets, Topkin writes, while Sternberg is a Brooklyn native who was a Mets fan growing up.  Of course, a Sternberg bid for the Mets would also require him to sell the Rays to another buyer.
  • Assuming no major injuries, the Rays may only have three undecided roster spots to figure out by Opening Day, Topkin writes.  Michael Perez, Kevan Smith, and Chris Herrmann will be battling for the backup catcher position, one bullpen spot will be filled from a plethora of in-house arms, and it remains to be seen whether the Rays will use their 26th roster slot on another reliever or another infielder.  Yoshitomo Tsutsugo’s ability to handle third base could be a deciding factor, as if the newly-signed slugger is capable, the Rays could have enough extra infield depth between Tsutsugo and Joey Wendle to take on the extra reliever.  Whatever the team chooses to do with their 26-man Opening Day roster, of course, can be adjusted during the season — Topkin floats a scenario that would see the Rays start the season with the extra infielder, but then call up an pitcher for extra relief depth during a busy stretch of 30 games in 31 days between April 3 and May 3.

Latest On Brendan McKay's Role

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We’ll kick off the weekend with a few notes from the AL East:

  • The Blue Jays are likely to enter 2020 with Randal Grichuk as their top option in center field, GM Ross Atkins confirmed (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). That’s not terribly surprising, as the always-sparse free agent market for center fielders has been almost completely picked over. Grichuk is coming off a disappointing 2019, the first season of a five-year extension he inked last April. Despite a career-high 31 home runs, he managed only a .232/.280/.457 line (90 wRC+) over 628 plate appearances. That at least seemed to open the door for an outside addition for the Jays, who have made some improvements around the roster this offseason. Between Grichuk’s right-handed pop and favorable Statcast ratings defensively, it seems he’s earned another opportunity to improve upon his lackluster plate discipline.
  • Brendan McKay is entering 2020 with a slightly more aggressive pitching plan than he had previously, reports Juan Toribio of MLB.com. McKay will work every fifth day this spring in hopes of carrying that schedule into the regular season, Toribio notes. Last season, he was limited to mound work every six days as he worked up to a career-high 122.2 innings across three levels. A two-way star at the University of Louisville, McKay will continue to see some action at DH and perhaps at first base, Toribio notes, although that’ll be worked in judiciously around his pitching schedule to keep him fresh. From the outside, Tampa’s rotation looks to be spoken for by Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough. Teams can’t rely on the same five starters to take them through an entire season, of course. So while an initial bullpen role or demotion to Triple-A Durham is still on the table for McKay, Toribio notes, the southpaw seems a good bet to start for manager Kevin Cash at some point next season.
  • Orioles reliever Richard Bleier is at full strength entering spring training, reports Roch Kubatko of MASN. The 32-year-old was sidelined by shoulder soreness early in 2019, perhaps contributing to his career-worst 5.37 ERA in 53 appearances last year. Kubatko unsurprisingly characterizes the soft-tossing ground-ball specialist as an essential lock to make Baltimore’s Opening Day roster. If Bleier can regain the form that saw him post a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2017 and 2018 (albeit with less inspiring peripherals), he’d be a solid trade chip for the rebuilding club. Bleier is making just $915K this season and comes with two additional years of team control.

Rays Sign Brooks Pounders, Deck McGuire

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The Rays have reached minor-league agreements with righties Brooks Pounders and Deck McGuire, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was among those to report on Twitter. Both will enter MLB camp.

Pounders, 29, has some swing-and-miss ability but hasn’t yet translated that into results at the MLB level. He has allowed 43 earned runs and 14 long balls through 45 2/3 innings over the past four campaigns, though he also carries a much more promising 47:12 K/BB ratio. Pounders spent most of 2019 at Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.31 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 over 56 1/3 frames.

As for McGuire, he’s a former first-round pick who has appeared in the majors but has not reached his initially perceived ceiling. The 30-year-old owns a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 frames in the majors. He struggled last year with Korea’s Samsung Lions, managing only a 5.05 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9 in 21 starts before being cut loose.

Ben Zobrist Reportedly Not Planning To Play In 2020

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Veteran utilityman Ben Zobrist is not planning to play in the current season, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). While nothing seems to have been set in stone, it now appears unlikely that the 38-year-old will resume his career.

This is hardly a surprising outcome given the course of the 2019 season. Zobrist took time away from the Cubs to deal with family matters, sacrificing some of his salary in the final season of his $64MM deal. When he was available, Zobrist generally struggled.

The switch-hitting, do-it-all performer didn’t lose his impeccable plate discipline last year, as he drew 23 walks against 24 strikeouts in 176 plate appearances. But his power all but disappeared, as he managed only six extra-base hits and a .313 slugging percentage to go with his .358 OBP.

If indeed this is the end of the line, Zobrist will finish with a .266/.357/.426 lifetime triple-slash — which works out to a 116 wRC+. He added big value with his multi-positional defensive acumen and quality baserunning, leaving him with a tally of 44.4 fWAR and 45.2 rWAR over his 14 campaigns in the majors.

Along the way, Zobrist played a pivotal role in redefining the way teams build their rosters. He was an everyday player in Tampa Bay, appearing in 153 games annually between 2009 and 2014 with the Rays, but he moved all over the field. That helped the creative organization find more ways to utilize platoons and achieve small advantages, a strategy that has since expanded, dovetailed with other trends, and turned into a rather normal occurrence around the game.

Of course, few if any super-utility types have anything approaching Zobrist’s ability with the bat and glove. In his best season, 2009, Zobrist ran up a monster 152 wRC+ and 8.7 fWAR. That sort of ability made his early-career extension one of the game’s most valuable contracts for a stretch. He was a hotly pursued trade commodity in advance of his final of team control, when he moved to the Athletics and then on to the Royals for the K.C. World Series run. And Zobrist drew interest from many clubs in the ensuing winter, ultimately landing with the Cubs on a four-year deal — a remarkable pact given that he was heading into his age-35 season.

It seems the Chicago stint will prove a finishing act for Zobrist. He struggled in 2017 and 2019, but was an All-Star for the third time in 2016. Zobrist not only helped the Cubbies reach the World Series, but took home the MVP award for his big role in helping the club end the curse. He was again a strong performer in 2018, easily justifying the club’s overall investment.

If this is it for Zobrist, then MLBTR offers a tip of the cap for an excellent career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Charlie Morton Undecided On Pitching Beyond 2020

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Rays ace Charlie Morton enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2019, tossing 194 2/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball with career-bests in K/9 (11.1) and BB/9 (2.6). No qualified starting pitcher in all of Major League Baseball surrendered home runs at a lower rate than Morton’s 0.69 HR/9 clip.

Morton is set to earn $15MM in 2020 — the second season of a two-year, $30MM deal with the Rays — and the Tampa Bay organization holds an option for a third season as well. However, Morton tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he isn’t certain he’ll continue pitching beyond the upcoming season, which will be his 13th in the Majors.

“If I throw really well and I feel really good, it’s going to be a tough decision,” the two-time All-Star said. Struggling through a poor season or enduring notable injuries, it seems, would hasten the 36-year-old’s desire to walk away from the game and spend more time with his family.

This isn’t the first time that Morton has questioned his future in the game. When he initially signed a two-year, $14MM deal with the Astros that spanned the 2017-18 seasons, Morton openly wondered how long he’d continue after the completion of that deal. Looking back and candidly expressing his pessimistic nature to Topkin, Morton hints that he never expected to find the increasing levels of success he’s enjoyed in recent years, though.

The 2019 season saw Morton finish third in American League Cy Young voting and make the All-Star team for a second consecutive season … after going without an All-Star nod for the first 11 years of his career. He ranked sixth among starting pitchers in terms of fWAR (6.1), fourth in FIP (2.81), eighth in strikeout percentage (30.4%) and 10th in K-BB% (23.2%). Morton was very arguably worth the entire $30MM sum of his contract (and then some) in year one alone.

Morton’s 2021 option will be valued at $15MM so long as he spends fewer than 30 days on the injured list in 2020. He didn’t spend a single day on the IL in 2019. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario that sees Morton walk away from that type of salary on the heels of another excellent season, but it’ll surely be a family decision. Morton makes his home in nearby Bradenton and cited proximity to his family as a notable factor in opting to sign with Tampa Bay in the first place.

Rays Finalizing Deal With Aaron Loup

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5:07pm: There is a deal in place, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

10:15am: The Rays are finishing up a minor league contract with veteran left-handed reliever Aaron Loup, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. If and when the deal is completed, the Beverly Hills Sports Council client would head to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee.

Loup, 32, spent the 2019 season in the Padres organization but has spent the vast majority of his eight-year big league career with the Blue Jays. An elbow strain limited him to just 3 1/3 innings with San Diego last season, but Loup holds a lifetime 3.45 ERA with averages of 8.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 0.69 HR/9 to go along with a 54.3 percent ground-ball rate.

Loup has fared considerably better against left-handed opponents in his career, but unlike many traditional lefty specialists, he hasn’t been completely obliterated by hitters holding the platoon advantage. Lefties have managed only a .234/.303/.321 slash against him through 584 plate appearances in the Majors, while righty hitters have put together a .269/.338/.424 slash. It’s certainly more production than one would hope to allow, but Loup isn’t a liability who can only be trusted in left-on-left spots, either.

Tampa Bay isn’t exactly hurting for left-handed depth at the moment, but Loup further deepens what’s already any areas of strength. Ryan Yarbrough is likely to open the 2020 season in the Rays’ rotation, while Jose Alvarado and Colin Poche could be in the Opening Day ’pen. Elsewhere on the 40-man roster are Jalen Beeks, Anthony Banda and top prospect Brendan McKay, although that trio could begin the year as starters in the Triple-A and serve as rotation depth. Loup will join a list of non-roster lefties that also includes former big leaguers Sean Gilmartin and Ryan Sherriff.

Tyler Glasnow Tinkering With Arsenal

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While recovering from November wrist surgery, Tyler Glasnow is tinkering with his arsenal. The big right-hander plans on ditching his changeup and replacing it with a splitter, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio . Glasnow’s changeup has never been a primary feature of his arsenal, topping at a 10.3% usage rate in 2017. It also hasn’t been a particularly effective pitch, save for in 2019 when hitters managed to slug just .125 against it, albeit in very limited usage (3.5%). It’s certainly intriguing to dream on a splitter to compliment Glasnow’s two lockdown offerings, but the pitch will have to survive spring training before taking on much (if any) significance. On a night of high drama, let’s check in on a couple other pitchers…

  • Michael Wacha recognizes the starting depth he will be contending against in Mets camp this spring, but he’s undaunted, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. After all, as Healey points out, Wacha twice fought his way back into the Cardinals rotation last season after time in the bullpen. Of course, that might also be a sign that he’s the likeliest of the Mets’ six rotation candidates to start the year out of the money (both literally and figuratively, given the incentives in Wacha’s contract for games started). Wacha finished last season with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP across 126 2/3 innings, and he’s only twice crossed the 150 inning threshold. It’ll be an uphill climb for Wacha to make the rotation by opening day, but it’s not impossible. Given the injury rate, there’s a decent chance he finds his way into the rotation at some point in 2020 regardless.
  • Jack Flaherty isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season, which means he can’t test free agency until following 2023, but the Cardinals ought to do their due diligence in locking him up now, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Easier said than done of course, especially with a player who has already shown signs of understanding his tremendous value. Frederickson recounts Flaherty’s rejection of the Cardinals salary offer before last season, which cost him $10,000, though the penalty was worth it from Flaherty’s perspective. The statement he was able to make about the current system was of bigger importance to the Cardinals’ ace. That’s a good sign in terms of Flaherty’s character and competitive spirit, but perhaps less so for Cardinals fans hoping for news of an early extension. Flaherty’s displeasure with the arbitration system has little to do with the Cardinals, of course, but after a dominant 2019 in which he posted a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP, including a mind-boggling 0.91 ERA in the second half, it’s understandable for Flaherty to be at least a little displeased at making close to the league minimum.

Latest On Yasiel Puig

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TODAY: Negotiations between the Giants and Puig are “all but dead,” according to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.  Puig isn’t a priority for the team now that Pence and Billy Hamilton have been added to San Francisco’s outfield mix.

FEBRUARY 7: Yasiel Puig has been the top dog on the free agent market for over a week now. His market situation remains largely unclear, though a few new tidbits of information have emerged today.

Both the Rays and Giants have given some indication of interest in the 29-year-old outfielder, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) and Robert Murray (via Twitter). It’s not clear in either case just how extensive the interest is.

Trouble is, both teams face some rather clear limitations on paper. The San Francisco club made quite a bit more sense before they reportedly struck a deal today with Hunter Pence. It’s still possible to imagine a fit, but that’d mean crowding out some of the players to whom the team has seemingly wished to provide opportunities.

Down in Tampa Bay, chasing after Puig would presumably represent a value-driven proposition. After all, there’s no need from a roster perspective. The Rays already have two righty bats in their corner outfield mix in Hunter Renfroe and Jose Martinez. No doubt the budget-conscious club would only move on Puig if it gets a bargain and/or has other machinations in mind for making a late tweak to its roster mix.

As we covered in the above-linked post, there are some other conceivable fits on paper. But as yet we haven’t heard of keen interest from many of the teams that could possibly match. With only a week or so left until camps open, it’ll be interesting to see how this situation develops.

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