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MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans

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Episode 9 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Will the Giants impact the National League West race? (13:20)
  • What do the Padres do with Juan Soto if they fall out of the race? (16:20)
  • What will the Twins do before the trade deadline? (18:20)
  • What can the Angels do with their rotation? (22:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Nine Veterans With Upcoming Minor League Opt-Out Opportunities

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As part of last year’s collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day now receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not added to the majors.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. The second of those dates spurred some roster movement this year. Chris Devenski, Jeff Hoffman and Billy Hamilton were all called up to keep them from testing the market. Chase Anderson and Gary Sánchez found MLB opportunities with other organizations after leaving the Reds and Giants, respectively.

As that third opt-out date nears, it’s worth checking in on a few players with opt-outs under the CBA (as well as one player whose minor league contract contained a June 1 opt-out provision).

Alfaro is not an Article XX(B) free agent, as he hit the open market via non-tender from the Padres last fall. However, the minor league deal he signed with Boston reportedly afforded him opt-out chances on both June 1 and July 1.

There’s certainly an argument for the 29-year-old catcher to trigger that provision. Alfaro has had an excellent year with the Red Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester. Through 187 plate appearances, he’s hitting .320/.364/.523 and has connected on six home runs. His 4.8% walk rate is modest but he’s kept his strikeouts to a near-average 23% clip while hitting for power.

Alfaro has had an inconsistent big league career, flashing power potential and big arm strength but struggling with his plate discipline and receiving work. He’s a .256/.305/.396 hitter in over 1600 major league plate appearances.

The Red Sox have used Connor Wong and Reese McGuire as their catching tandem. They’ve combined for a decent .272/.309/.440 line, with Wong supplying some power while McGuire has done a serviceable job reaching base. Neither Wong nor McGuire stands as an obvious roadblock to an addition behind the plate but their cumulative production has been solid. Manager Alex Cora was noncommittal on bringing Alfaro up, telling reporters today the club is “very comfortable with Reese and Wong” (relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive). Cora expressed his hope that Alfaro would stick in the organization even if the Sox don’t call him up this week, though it remains to be seen if he’ll find a better immediate opportunity elsewhere.

Doolittle’s return stint in Washington last year was cut short by a UCL internal brace procedure. He returned on a minor league deal but has been behind schedule as he works back to game shape. The 36-year-old has been on the injured list all season. He began a rehab stint a few days ago and has thrown two innings between Low-A and High-A. It seems likely he’ll remain with Washington and make it back to Triple-A Rochester before much longer.

Duffy has spent the entire season on the injured list. He’s working back from forearm issues that have prevented him from throwing a major league pitch since July 2021. It’s unclear when he’ll be ready to return to game action.

Gamel has had a solid showing in Triple-A since signing a non-roster pact in Spring Training. The left-handed hitting corner outfielder has a .257/.387/.436 line over 124 plate appearances for the Rays’ top affiliate in Durham. He’s walking at a stellar 17.7% rate against a manageable 24.2% strikeout percentage. He spent a couple weeks on the injured list earlier this month but returned to the Bulls’ lineup a week ago.

Unfortunately for the veteran, he could find it hard to crack a quality Tampa Bay outfield. Randy Arozarena has left field secured and the lefty-swinging Josh Lowe has had a breakout year to claim most of the right field reps. Luke Raley and Manuel Margot — neither of whom can be optioned to the minor leagues — are also in the outfield mix; Raley, in particular, has played very well this season. Gamel passed on his CBA opt-out dates in March and May.

Naquin was an Article XX(B) free agent who didn’t break camp with the big league club. He split the 2022 campaign between the Reds and Mets, combining to hit .229/.282/.423 over 334 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitting outfielder has only played 13 games with Triple-A Nashville after signing with the Brewers, hitting .250/.294/.375 with a pair of homers. He’s been on the minor league injured list since April 28.

Rosenthal has had his last couple seasons washed away by injury. He lost 2021 to thoracic outlet syndrome and hip surgery, while his ’22 campaign was wiped out by hamstring and lat strains. The Tigers took a look at the one-time star closer in Spring Training and kept him in the organization with their highest affiliate in Toledo. Rosenthal pitched twice in the season’s first week before being placed on the minor league IL with a sprained throwing elbow.

Ross is recovering from last June’s Tommy John surgery and will spend most of the year on the injured list. He bypassed his first two opt-out chances and seems likely to do so again.

Sanchez served a depth role for Minnesota last season, logging 60 innings over 15 outings (ten starts). He was tagged for a 6.60 ERA at the MLB level but performed well enough in Triple-A the organization brought him back. The former ERA champ has started ten games with their top affiliate in St. Paul this year. He has a 4.17 ERA over 41 frames. His 49.2% ground-ball rate is solid but he’s walked nearly 16% of batters faced while punching hitters out at just an 18.8% clip. Even with injuries to Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, the Twins have had one of the game’s best rotations through two months.

Stammen suffered a capsule tear in his shoulder in Spring Training. The 39-year-old has spent the year on the injured list and has admitted the injury might unfortunately end his career.

Rays Place Pete Fairbanks On 15-Day Injured List

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The Rays placed right-hander Pete Fairbanks on the 15-day injured list prior to today’s game, with a retroactive placement date of May 28.  Fairbanks is dealing with left hip inflammation, which prevented his planned outing in yesterday’s game with the Dodgers.  Trevor Kelley was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move, as while Kelley was only just optioned to Durham yesterday, he is able to make a quick return to the majors due to the injury situation.

Fairbanks was warming up in the bullpen yesterday when “his hip locked up,” as manager Kevin Cash described the situation to reporters.  Speaking to the media again today, Cash said Fairbanks will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the problem.

Injuries have unfortunately been pretty common for Fairbanks throughout his pro career, two Tommy John surgeries before he even made his MLB debut in 2019.  He was limited to 71 appearances in 2021-22 due to shoulder problems and a lat strain, with the injuries cumulatively keeping on the IL for roughly five months.  Fairbanks also missed two weeks earlier this month due to a minor forearm strain, and his ongoing battle with Raynaud’s disease has sometimes caused him to miss a few games here and there due to numbness or a cold feeling in his fingers.

Despite this checkered health history, Tampa Bay still felt comfortable enough to sign Fairbanks to a three-year, $12MM contract extension this past winter because the righty has often looked like a frontline relief arm when healthy.  Over 105 innings since the start of the 2020 season, Fairbanks has a 2.57 ERA, 32.4% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate, as well as increasingly good soft-contact numbers.  A hard thrower who averaged 99mph on his fastball last season, Fairbanks’ velo was down a bit to 97.8mph this season, though his forearm problem might have had something to do with that minor drop.

Losing Fairbanks for at least 15 days won’t help a Tampa bullpen that has been pretty ordinary this season, despite the Rays’ overall success.  Injuries have somewhat thinned the Rays’ seemingly inexhaustible pitching depth at the Major and minor league levels, so Tampa Bay might be on the lookout for relief pitching heading into the trade deadline.

Pete Fairbanks Dealing With Hip Injury

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In the words of Rays manager Kevin Cash, Pete Fairbanks’ “hip locked up” while the reliever was getting ready to enter today’s game with the Dodgers.  Instead, Fairbanks halted his warm-up and went to the dugout once the inning was over.  Cash told Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters that according to the team trainer, Fairbanks’ “muscles look to be okay, but we saw him walk very gingerly from the bullpen and he was in some pain.”  More will be known after Fairbanks undergoes further examination.

Fairbanks already spent 15 days on the injured list due to forearm inflammation earlier this season, and missed a couple of other games due to his symptoms of Raynaud’s disease, which manifests in the form of finger numbness.  Injuries have been a frequent setback for Fairbanks during his pro career, but he has been a very effective reliever when healthy, as indicated by his 2.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings since joining the Rays during the 2019 season.  Tampa is 13 games into a stretch of 16 games in 16 games, and while Cash is hopeful that his bullpen can hold up until Thursday’s off-day, the club doesn’t have much room to maneuver if Fairbanks has to miss even a couple of days to recover.

Rays Select Joe LaSorsa

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May 28: The Rays announced the selection of LaSorsa. They’ve designated Chris Muller for assignment and optioned Trevor Kelley to Triple-A.

May 27: The Rays will select the contract of left-hander Joe LaSorsa prior to Sunday’s game with the Dodgers, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links).  LaSorsa was scratched from his scheduled start tonight with Triple-A Durham and now looks to be on the verge of his MLB debut.

Since LaSorsa isn’t on the 40-man roster, the Rays will have to make at least one corresponding move to fit the southpaw onto the active 26-man roster.  Topkin speculates that Trevor Kelley might be optioned to Triple-A after throwing two innings in today’s game with Los Angeles, so LaSorsa would represent a fresh arm for Tampa’s bullpen.

An 18th-round pick for the Rays in the 2019 draft, LaSorsa has a 2.87 ERA over 203 2/3 career innings in the minors.  That includes a 3.86 ERA over 21 innings with Durham this season, with LaSorsa starting three of his nine games in his first taste of Triple-A ball.  His 8.4% walk rate and especially his low 13.7% strikeout rate don’t stand out, and neither Baseball America or MLB Pipeline rank the left-hander amongst Tampa Bay’s top 30 prospects.

That said, LaSorsa has better peripheral numbers in past minor league seasons, and his ability to eat multiple innings and dominate left-handed batters has clearly caught the Rays’ attention.  As Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen put it in a preseason look at Tampa Bay’s farm system, LaSorsa’s fastball “only sits 84-86 but [he] commands the hell out of a plus slider and is nice LOOGY depth.”

The Rays have been rolling this season despite a relatively underwhelming performance from their bullpen, which sits in the bottom half of the league in several major statistical categories.  While LaSorsa may not be the absolute answer to the Rays’ bullpen needs, the team’s enviable amount of minor league pitching depth gives them plenty of options as they shuffle arms and try to find the right reliever mix.

Rays Activate Tyler Glasnow

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The Rays announced this morning that they’ve activated right-hander Tyler Glasnow from the injured list. In a corresponding move, right-hander Cooper Criswell was optioned to Triple-A. Glasnow will start this afternoon’s game against the Dodgers.

Today’s start will not only be Glasnow’s 2023 debut, but just his third regular season appearance since he underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the 2021 campaign. One of the most talented pitchers in the sport, the hulking 6’8” righty owns a phenomenal 2.75 ERA, 51% better than league average, with a 2.87 FIP since the start of the 2019 season with a phenomenal 36% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. Of course, that amazing production has come across just 212 2/3 innings of work in that four year span, as Glasnow has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. The 29-year-old has eclipsed 100 innings pitched in a season just once to this point in his career, when he threw 111 2/3 innings in 2018.

Despite the volume issues, it’s hard to overstate what a boost to the Rays a healthy Glasnow figures to be. While the club’s collective 3.67 ERA ranks fourth in baseball- even after a 20-1 drubbing by the Blue Jays that saw the club’s position players give up half of the total runs- the losses of Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs have left the club’s rotation largely operating with just three regular starters in Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin, and Taj Bradley. Glasnow’s return figures to not only solidify that group, but add bonafide ace-caliber production to the front of the rotation.

As for Criswell, the 26-year-old righty has pitched 15 1/3 innings for the Rays this season, though the results have left much to be desired as Criswell owns a 6.46 ERA and 5.37 FIP in that time. Though his 23.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate are both acceptable figures, and a .381 BABIP suggests there could be some flukiness to his results, three home runs allowed in his four appearances certainly leaves plenty of reason for concern. Criswell will attempt to get things back on track at Triple-A Durham, serving as depth for the club in the meantime.

Dodgers Claim Zack Burdi

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The Dodgers have claimed right-hander Zack Burdi off waivers from the Rays, per announcements from both clubs. Righty Tyler Cyr was transferred to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Burdi was twice designated for assignment by Tampa Bay this season, clearing waivers and accepting an outright the first time around. He’ll be claimed this time through, however, and be placed directly onto Los Angeles’ 40-man roster. The 28-year-old tossed three shutout innings during his first stint with the Rays but was rocked for five earned runs on five hits and a walk in just one inning when the Rays were blown out by the Blue Jays by a score of 20-1.

Burdi is a former first-rounder whose results have not yet aligned with his former top prospect status. That’s due largely to injury, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and then suffered a torn patellar tendon in his knee the following year. There were no minor leagues to return to in 2020, so Burdi jumped straight to the big leagues with the White Sox after pitching just 33 combined innings in 2018-19. The results weren’t good (nine runs in 7 1/3 innings) and Burdi has yet to find his footing. In 21 1/3 big league innings, he has an 8.44 ERA.

Cyr, 30, was selected to the big league roster just a week ago. The journeyman right-hander tossed 1 2/3 shutout innings with a pair of strikeouts in his brief stint with the Dodgers, but his shoulder barked following his second appearance, sending him to the 15-day injured list with what was diagnosed as an impingement. It seems that the injury is serious enough that it’ll require at least a two-month absence.

It’s a tough blow for Cyr, whose only prior MLB experience came in 2022 with the A’s and Phillies — a total of just 12 1/3 innings. He’d hoped his call to the Dodgers and a pair of scoreless outings might give him an opportunity to prove he can hold down a spot in a big league bullpen. Those hopes will be delayed indefinitely now as he battles this shoulder issue.

Cyr, who entered the season with just 34 days of MLB service time, will accrue service time and be paid at the prorated league minimum rate while he’s on the injured list. That’s a decent financial consolation prize after grinding through eight minor league seasons with scant salaries each year, but the loss of the opportunity to carve out a larger role on a big league club surely stings.

Rays Designate Zack Burdi For Assignment, Select Ben Heller

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The Rays announced Wednesday that they’ve designated right-hander Zack Burdi for assignment and selected the contract of fellow righty Ben Heller from Triple-A Durham. It’s the second time this season Burdi has been designated for assignment by Tampa Bay. He cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Durham the first time around.

Burdi tossed three shutout innings during his first stint with the Rays earlier this season but was mauled for six runs (five earned) on five hits and a walk — all in one inning — during yesterday’s 20-1 drubbing at the hands of the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay needed at least one fresh arm in the ’pen, and Burdi surely wasn’t going to be available after laboring through a six-run, 36-pitch frame.

The 28-year-old Burdi is a former first-rounder whose results have not yet aligned with his former top prospect status. That’s due largely to injury, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and then suffered a torn patellar tendon in his knee the following year. There were no minor leagues to return to in 2020, so Burdi jumped straight to the big leagues with the White Sox after pitching just 33 combined innings in 2018-19. The results weren’t good (nine runs in 7 1/3 innings) and Burdi has yet to find his footing. In 21 1/3 big league innings, he has an 8.44 ERA. The Rays will have a week to pass him through outright waivers, trade him or release him.

Heller, 31, has appeared in parts of four big league seasons. All of those came with the Yankees, who acquired him alongside Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield and J.P. Feyereisen in the trade sending Andrew Miller to Cleveland. Heller has been successful in limited opportunities, pitching to a 2.59 ERA in 31 1/3 MLB frames — albeit with worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates (21.7%, 10.9%).

Had it not been for 2018 Tommy John surgery, he might’ve had additional opportunities with the Yankees. Heller missed that entire season, was only healthy enough to throw 21 innings in 2019, and spent much of the shortened 2020 season on the injured list due to a nerve injury in his biceps.

Heller has spent the season in Durham’s bullpen, working in a multi-inning role and logging a 3.91 ERA in 23 frames spread across 16 outings. He’s fanned a strong 26.6% of his opponents against a sharp 6.4% walk rate and only allowed a pair of homers so far. Assuming he gets into a game with the Rays, it’ll be his first big league appearance since that injury-shortened 2020 campaign.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Rays Garnering Interest From Multiple Potential Buyers

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According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome, the Rays would have multiple potential buyers if the club decided to sell, as groups both local to the Tampa Bay area and outside buyers looking to relocate the franchise to one of the cities that could be a potential candidate for league expansion. Rosenthal and Rome note one specific suitor: Dan Doyle Jr., CEO of local company DEX Imaging. Despite the interest, the Rays are still primarily focused on a new ballpark in the Tampa Bay area, per the duo.

As Rosenthal and Rome note, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has previously indicated that expansion wouldn’t be considered until the A’s and Rays have resolved their ongoing stadium issues and that fees could end up well above $2 billion. Given these factors, it’s understandable why groups with interest in ownership of a hypothetical expansion team would also look into purchasing the Rays, which Rosenthal and Rome notes would be expected to sell for less than the expected expansion fee.

The interest gives Rays ownership plenty of options as they attempt to secure a ballpark in either Tampa or St. Petersburg prior to the expiration of their lease at Tropicana Field, which will occur following the 2027 season. If the Rays were to relocate out of Tampa, Rosenthal and Rome note that the locality would likely become an immediate contender for expansion.

Of course, the Rays currently seem to be making good progress on plans for a new ballpark in the area, including support from St. Petersburg mayor Ken Welch. While the progress in recent months is surely encouraging for Rays fans, Rosenthal and Rome still indicate that the Rays will keep their options open if they’re unable to securing funding for a ballpark in the Tampa Bay area, up to and including the possibility of a sale.

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