Blue Jays Rumors

Pirates Acquire Isiah Kiner-Falefa

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2024 at 4:27pm CDT

The Pirates and Blue Jays have agreed to a trade that will send utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to Pittsburgh. The Bucs will also get some cash considerations as part of the deal, while the Jays will receive outfield prospect Charles McAdoo in return. The trade has been officially announced by both clubs. Toronto is reportedly paying down $1MM of the approximate $2.5MM remaining on Kiner-Falefa’s deal this season; they’ll also pick up roughly $1.22MM of the $7.5MM on his contract for next season.

Kiner-Falefa hasn’t played a big league game since June 30 due to a left knee sprain, but he is two games into a minor league rehab assignment and is expected to be activated within the next few days, assuming no setbacks. The 29-year-old now looks to be making his return in a new uniform, and joining a playoff race, with the Pirates two games back of an NL wild card slot.

Toronto signed Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15MM free agent deal this winter, and both the size of the contract and IKF’s landing spot surprised many pundits at the time. Kiner-Falefa has a history as a glove-first player and was coming off a rough year at the plate with the 2023 Yankees, and the Jays seemingly had little need for a utility infielder given their number of infield options already on hand. As it turned out, however, Kiner-Falefa ended up being an all-around bright spot in an otherwise disappointing Blue Jays season.

Over 281 plate appearances, Kiner-Falefa has hit .292/.338/.420 with seven home runs in a Jays uniform. His 116 wRC+ far outclasses the 81 wRC+ he posted in his first six MLB seasons, even if a fair amount of good fortune has been involved. Kiner-Falefa’s .331 wOBA is well above his .291 xwOBA, he has a .316 BABIP, and he ranks in the bottom tenth percentile of all hitters in walk rate, hard-hit ball rate, and barrel rate. While the hard contact hasn’t been there, Kiner-Falefa has made a lot of contact in general, with an excellent 13.2% strikeout rate.

This unexpected offense has been paired with IKF’s customary strong defense, as he has helped the Jays at second base, third base, and shortstop this year. Pittsburgh already has an elite defensive third baseman in Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz is locked into the shortstop role, so with Nick Gonzales now facing a lengthy stint on the 10-day IL, Kiner-Falefa figures to slide right into the Pirates’ second base role once he himself returns to good health.

After five straight losing seasons, the Pirates appear eager to mark the end of their rebuild with a postseason berth. Kiner-Falefa, Bryan De La Cruz, Jalen Beeks, and Josh Walker have all been added in trades in the last few days, and another deal or two might be squeezed in before the deadline. While none of these moves are exactly blockbusters, the sum total is a set of modest but needed upgrades to bolster some weaker links on the roster.

The financial element of the IKF deal shouldn’t be overlooked, as Kiner-Falefa is owed roughly $2.5MM for the rest of this season and then $7.5MM in 2025. The Jays included cash in a few of their deadline deals.

McAdoo ranked 12th in Baseball America’s most recent evaluation of the Pirates’ minor league system, and the 22-year-old has hit .315/.394/.538 with 14 home runs over 376 total PA at high-A and Double-A this season. A 13th-round pick out of San Jose State in the 2023 draft, McAdoo has done nothing but hit in his brief pro career, and has already shown a lot of polish in his approach at the plate. BA notes that McAdoo has shown elite bat speed and exit velocities to back up his impressive bottom-line numbers.

Defensively, McAdoo has played mostly third base in the minors, but with a good chunk of time at first base, second base, and in both corner outfield spots. BA hasn’t been wowed by his defense and feels the corner outfield might ultimately be his defensive home, though for now, McAdoo looks like the kind of versatile multi-position type the Blue Jays have prioritized in recent years.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link) was the first to report that IKF was headed to the Pirates, while MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote (via X) about McAdoo’s inclusion. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the specifics of the cash considerations.

Twins Acquire Trevor Richards

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2024 at 3:29pm CDT

The Twins have acquired right-hander Trevor Richards in a trade with the Blue Jays, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes (via X). Minor league infielder Jay Harry is heading to Toronto on the other end of the deal, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi report (X link).

A veteran of seven MLB seasons, Richards has now been traded four times in his career, and came to the Jays along with Bowden Francis in a July 2021 deal that saw Rowdy Tellez swapped to the Brewers. 2021 was also the year that saw Richards fully assume a bullpen role after working mostly as a starter earlier in his career, and Richards has been a long relief option (with the occasional start in a bullpen game) over his stint in Toronto.

Richards’ performance has been inconsistent, as he leaves the Jays with a 4.75 ERA over his 221 2/3 total innings with the team. This season, Richards has a 4.64 ERA in 52 1/3 innings with a subpar 11% walk rate and a 22.5% strikeout rate that is around league average. The latter number is way down from the 31.3K% Richards posted in 2021-23, though his barrel rate is much improved from the previous three seasons.

It should be noted that Richards had a 2.44 ERA as recently as July 3, but he has been torched for 15 runs over his last eight appearances. Richards might’ve had somewhat limited trade value anyway as a rental reliever who isn’t usually used in high-leverage situations, but this rough stretch in the last few weeks certainly didn’t help the Blue Jays’ efforts to move the 31-year-old.

Richards has about $710K remaining on his $2.1MM salary for the 2024 season, making him a pretty inexpensive addition to Minnesota’s relief corps. Recent reports indicated that the Twins don’t have much money to work with for deadline upgrades, as their estimated (as per RosterResource) $128.5MM payroll could represent something closer to the upper limits of what ownership is willing to spend. Concerns over broadcasting revenue have been a big story for the Twins over the last year, resulting in both a pretty quiet offseason and what had been a quiet deadline push — the Twins were the last team to swing a trade within the week.

These financial limitations add another layer of difficulty to the Twins’ plans to upgrade a team that is in possession of an AL wild card berth. For the Jays, their deadline semi-fire sale continues, as Richards joins Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Yimi Garcia, Danny Jansen, and Nate Pearson as players moved in the last couple of weeks.

Harry was a sixth-round pick for the Twins in the 2023 draft, and he just turned 22 years old within the last couple of weeks. The Penn State product has a .214/.306/.349 slash line over 340 plate appearances for high-A Cedar Rapids this season, playing primarily at shortstop and second base while also getting some time at third base and in all three outfield positions. This versatility might help Harry’s chances of climbing the minor league ladder as a super-utility man, though naturally he’ll need to show a bit more at the plate.

Astros Acquire Yusei Kikuchi

By Anthony Franco | July 30, 2024 at 1:59am CDT

The Astros are paying up to get one of the top pitchers on the market. Houston and Toronto announced a trade sending Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros for rookie righty Jake Bloss, outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido and minor league infielder Will Wagner. Toronto already had ample 40-man roster space to accommodate the move.

Kikuchi is behind Jack Flaherty as arguably the second-best rental starter on the market. Houston was tied to Flaherty as well as more controllable pitchers like Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde and Zach Eflin last week. There was never much doubt that the Astros would bring in a starter, as general manager Dana Brown hasn’t been shy about the team’s need for a mid-rotation arm. The asking price on Flaherty always seemed like it might be beyond Houston’s comfort zone, making Kikuchi a sensible fallback.

The 33-year-old Kikuchi has had mixed results this season and throughout his career more broadly. Over 115 2/3 innings this year, he carries a 4.75 ERA that’s right in line with his 4.72 mark in parts of six MLB campaigns. Kikuchi’s strikeout and walk profile is quite a bit more impressive than that run prevention figure suggests. He has punched out 26.2% of opposing hitters while walking only 6% of batters faced. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, Kikuchi ranks 19th in strikeout percentage and 16th in strikeout/walk rate differential. He’s getting swinging strikes at a 12.4% rate that places him among the top 30 in that group.

A .340 average on balls in play and modest 70.6% left on base rate have nevertheless pushed his ERA close to 5.00. Those marks were nearer to league average in 2023, when the Japanese southpaw turned in a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts with similar strikeout and walk rates as he’s posted this season. Houston is betting on positive regression in those sequencing and batted ball results.

Teams have long been intrigued by Kikuchi, who boasts some of the best raw stuff of any left-hander in baseball. His fastball sits north of 95 MPH and he has the ability to miss bats with all four of his offerings (four-seam, curveball, slider, changeup). Kikuchi has had a difficult time keeping the ball in the park throughout his MLB career, though. He’s allowing homers at an elevated 1.32 clip per nine this season and has given up more longballs than the average pitcher in every full season of his major league tenure. Right-handed batters have generally given him trouble, though he’s holding them a more manageable .280/.323/.441 slash in 409 plate appearances this year.

While Kikuchi isn’t without flaws, he’s a plug-and-play option for the middle of a Houston rotation that certainly needed one. The Astros have been hit hard by starting pitching injuries all year. They lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery. Depth starter J.P. France went down with a season-ending shoulder issue. Justin Verlander has had two injured list stints and has been shelved since the middle of June because of neck soreness. Lance McCullers Jr. has hit continued snags in his effort to return from a flexor tendon surgery. They had to slow down Luis Garcia in his work back from Tommy John surgery, though he’s again throwing bullpen sessions after being pulled off a minor league rehab stint earlier this month.

Framber Valdez is leading the rotation and has a 3.43 ERA over 18 starts. Hunter Brown has bounced back from a disastrous April and pitched like a top-of-the-rotation arm for the last three months. Ronel Blanco has been a godsend after injuries pushed him into the fifth starter role out of camp. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 119 frames.

While that’s a decent top three, the depth is questionable. Spencer Arrighetti has a 5.58 ERA over his first 19 MLB starts. Houston had pushed Bloss to the majors within a year of drafting him, largely reflecting their lack of alternatives in the upper minors. The Astros are hoping to get Verlander and Garcia (and potentially McCullers) back at some point, but they’ve also pushed Blanco to new workload heights. The 30-year-old righty had never thrown more than 88 innings in a major or minor league campaign before this year. He’s already 31 innings beyond that.

Kikuchi, who hasn’t missed a start in two years, has provided the kind of durability that the Astros have generally lacked. There’s injury risk with any pitcher, of course, but the Astros are no doubt thrilled to land a pitcher who is tied for fifth in MLB in starts going back to last year’s Opening Day.

Doing so comes at a cost. Bloss is arguably the top pitching prospect in a fairly thin Houston farm system. A third-round pick out of Georgetown last summer, the 6’3″ righty quickly pitched his way towards the top of the prospect pipeline. Baseball America recently ranked him the #2 prospect in the organization, while he’s in the overall Top 100 (and second in the organization) at FanGraphs.

BA suggests he’s likely to fit at the back of a rotation, while FanGraphs credits him with mid-rotation potential. Both outlets write that his mid-90s fastball plays especially well at the top of the strike zone because of its backspin and Bloss’ deceptively low release height. He has a pair of solid breaking pitches, while his changeup is a work in progress.

Opponents have hit him hard over his three big league starts. He has given up nine runs on 16 hits (including five homers) over 11 2/3 innings. Were it not for Houston’s injury woes, he probably wouldn’t have made his MLB debut yet. Bloss has pitched very well in the minors this season, working to a 1.64 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate across 66 innings. Yet he’d made all of eight starts at Double-A and one Triple-A appearance before being pushed to the big leagues out of necessity. A more typical development path would probably still have him at Double-A right now.

Bloss has all three options remaining. The 23-year-old is under control for at least six seasons beyond this one and could stick around even longer if the Jays send him to the minors for further development. Bloss could factor into next year’s rotation as the Jays try to quickly return to contention, maybe slotting into the rotation spot vacated by Kikuchi’s departure.

Getting Bloss alone would’ve been a strong return for a half-season of Kikuchi’s services. Loperfido, 25, ranked as Houston’s #5 prospect on BA’s latest update. A seventh-round selection out of Duke in 2021, he hit his way to the big leagues earlier this year. Loperfido combined for a .278/.370/.510 slash between three minor league levels last season. He was obliterating Triple-A pitching early this season and owns a .272/.365/.568 mark with 13 homers over 39 games in the Pacific Coast League this year.

Of course, the PCL is an extremely favorable environment for hitters. BA’s scouting report credits Loperfido with above-average but not elite power. He was striking out an elevated 28% clip against Triple-A pitching. The whiffs have carried over in his first look at MLB arms. Loperfido has fanned in 36.4% of his 118 MLB plate appearances to date. He’s hitting .236/.299/.358 in 38 games.

Loperfido isn’t a great athlete or defensive player. He was drafted as a second baseman but he’s moved off the position entirely this year. Houston has divided his time between the outfield and first base in Triple-A. They haven’t given him any major league starts at first base, which is a bit of a surprise considering the mediocre production they’ve gotten out of the position from Jon Singleton and the since-released José Abreu.

Wagner is the third piece in the deal, but he’s a prospect in his own right. The son of seven-time All-Star Billy Wagner, Will ranks 19th in the Houston system at Baseball America. A former 18th-round pick out of Liberty, Wagner has outperformed his draft stock and is posting huge numbers in Triple-A. He’s hitting .307/.424/.429 with a massive 16.2% walk percentage against a tiny 10.2% strikeout rate across 324 plate appearances.

The left-handed hitting Wagner is old for the level — today is his 26th birthday — but he has little more to prove in the minors. He has divided his time between first, second and third base this year. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if not selected onto the 40-man roster but could get a look in Toronto before the end of this season.

That’s three controllable players at or near the MLB level. The Astros were fine giving them up while they’re in a tight battle with the Mariners and Rangers for the AL West crown. Beyond the prospects, they’re adding salary to what is already a franchise-high payroll. The Astros had a competitive balance tax estimate around $256MM before the deal (as calculated by RosterResource). Unless there are cash considerations involved, they’ll take on roughly $3.33MM remaining on Kikuchi’s $10MM salary. That pushes them beyond the $257MM threshold that marks the second tier of luxury penalization. They’re taxed at a 32% rate on spending up to $277MM, so they’ll take on roughly $1MM in taxes on top of the money they owe Kikuchi.

Toronto sheds some money from its tax ledger — more than the Astros are taking on. Kikuchi’s three-year, $36MM free agent deal was frontloaded to pay him $16MM in the first season. Toronto’s competitive balance tax hit was nevertheless the contract’s $12MM average annual value, so Kikuchi had a higher CBT hit than actual salary this year.

When a player on a guaranteed contract is traded, the CBT ledger is recalculated based on the salary remaining at the time of the trade. The Astros assume the prorated amount of a $10MM salary while the Jays drop the prorated portion of the $12MM for which Kikuchi had counted against their books — approximately $4MM. That could aid them in trying to slip below the $237MM base threshold this year. Their exact CBT number is pending the reporting of the amount of cash they included in the Justin Turner trade with Seattle this afternoon.

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden first reported the Astros were nearing a deal for Kikuchi that would send Bloss to Toronto. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed a Kikuchi trade was in place. Ken Rosenthal, Kaitlyn McGrath and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the Jays were acquiring two other prospects. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Loperfido and Wagner were in the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NL West Notes: Walker, Duran, Dodgers, Padres, Kikuchi

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 10:49pm CDT

Christian Walker left tonight’s game with what the Diamondbacks described as left oblique tightness. It isn’t clear when the injury occurred, though Walker struck out swinging during a second-inning at-bat, and Kevin Newman then took over Walker’s spot at first base in the top of the fourth. More will be known about the severity of the injury once Walker undergoes tests, but any sort of oblique issue might hint at a trip to the injured list for the star first baseman.

Losing Walker for any stretch of time would deal a heavy blow to Arizona’s playoff hopes, given his all-around importance to the lineup. Walker is hitting .254/.338/.476 with 23 home runs over 461 plate appearances, and delivering his usual excellent glovework at first base. Beyond what an IL stay might do to the Diamondbacks’ chances in the pennant race, an extended absence also wouldn’t help Walker’s platform for a big free agent contract, as he is scheduled to hit the open market at season’s end. This sudden uncertainty over Walker’s status is an unwelcome wrinkle for the D’Backs in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline, as the team was planning to focus on pitching rather than any significant position-player adds.

11 Long Shot Trade Candidates

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2024 at 8:00pm CDT

We're less than 24 hours from the deadline. There has been a flurry of activity dating back to Thursday night, taking a few of the top names (e.g Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Carlos Estévez, Isaac Paredes) off the board. We've devoted ample attention to the likes of Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi.

Every deadline features some late surprises. Talks don't always get over the line, but we're likely to hear about discussions on marquee names who are less clear trade candidates than are the good players with limited contractual control on bad teams. None of the following players are likely to be traded. They've probably each got less than a 20% chance of changing uniforms. There's an argument for teams to listen on these players, though they're of varying ability and trade value.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal might be the best pitcher in baseball. If the Tigers trade him, it'd be the biggest transaction of the summer. He's probably the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young award behind a 2.35 earned run average with a 30% strikeout rate over 130 innings. Detroit is three games below .500 and 5.5 out in the Wild Card race. Last night's Carson Kelly trade shows they're willing to move rentals. Needless to say, a Skubal trade would be in another stratosphere of significance.

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Mariners Acquire Justin Turner

By Darragh McDonald | July 29, 2024 at 4:30pm CDT

The Mariners have acquired Justin Turner and cash considerations from the Blue Jays, per announcements from both clubs, with outfield prospect RJ Schreck going to the Blue Jays in return. Turner was playing for the Jays at the time the trade was reported but was removed from the game.

Turner has remarkably continued to be an above-average hitter as he approaches his 40th birthday, which is in November, though he has unsurprisingly tailed off a bit from his peak. With the Dodgers from 2014 to 2022, Turner hit .296/.375/.490 for a wRC+ of 137. He signed with the Red Sox last year and slashed .276/.345/.455 for a 114 wRC+, a noticeable drop-off from his work in Los Angeles but still 14% above average.

He signed with the Jays coming into 2024, a one-year deal with a $13MM guarantee plus bonuses based on plate appearances. His offense has taken another small dip but is still decent. He is drawing walks at an 11.2% clip this year while limiting his strikeouts to a 17.2% rate. His .253/.348/.370 batting line translates to a 109 wRC+.

The Mariners are 56-51 and battling the Astros and Rangers in the American League West. Their pitching has been great this year but the offense has been a disappointment. Collectively, they are hitting .218/.300/.368 for a wRC+ of 95, which places them in the bottom third of the league. Their 27.7% strikeout rate is easily the worst in the majors. On top of those season-long struggles, they recently lost Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford to the injured list.

The club has been actively trying to reconfigure the offense in recent days, acquiring Randy Arozarena from the Rays and now Turner from the Jays. Given the club’s punch-out problem, it’s perhaps not a coincidence that Turner has always been tough to strike out. He has a 15.4% strikeout rate in his career and has never been higher than 17.6% in a full season. For context, the major league average is 22.3% this year.

Turner has played all around the infield in his career but the expectations of his glovework have naturally diminished as he has pushed further into his late 30s. He has dabbled at second base in recent seasons but the Jays haven’t put him there this year. He’s still made some appearances at third base this season but only five starts, with his last regular playing time there coming in 2022. He only has 11 starts at first base this year but that might just be because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is there most days, as Turner got into 41 games there for the Sox last season. Divish relays on X that Seattle manager Scott Servais said Turner will likely play first in Seattle more than he did in Toronto.

The Mariners recently traded Ty France to the Reds, opening up their first base spot. They’ve been using Tyler Locklear and Jason Vosler there in recent days, but now Turner could jump into that mix. The club had initially planned for Mitch Garver to be something close to an everyday DH this year but his underwhelming season has nudged him into more of a traditional backup catcher role. That means there could also be DH at-bats to be shared between Turner, Vosler and Locklear.

The Jays have been in sell mode for a while, having already flipped Yimi García, Nate Pearson and Danny Jansen in recent days. Now they have flipped Turner for Schreck, a 24-year-old who the M’s selected in the ninth-round of last year’s draft. He started this year in High-A and performed very well at the plate. In his 344 plate appearances, he drew walks at a 16.6% rate while only striking out 13.7% of the time. He also hit 12 home runs, leading to a slash of .261/.401/.464 and a 148 wRC+. On top of that, he added seven steals while playing all three outfield slots.

He then got bumped to Double-A and has a brutal slash of .143/.294/.250 there, but in a tiny sample of eight games with a .190 batting average on balls in play that is surely not sustainable. The Jays will perhaps bring him over to their own Double-A club in the coming days and hope for better help from the baseball gods.

Beyond the prospect, the Jays are likely happy to unload some of of Turner’s contract. There’s about $4.3MM left to be paid out and some part of that amount will be subtracted from the competitive balance tax calculation. The Jays are reportedly paying down $2MM in the deal.

With the trades of Turner, Jansen, García and Pearson, the Jays have made significant progress towards ducking under the tax line this year. RosterResource estimates that they are currently just under $242MM, putting them less than $5MM away from the $237MM base threshold, though the cash going to Seattle in the Turner trade should alter that calculus.

Between now and tomorrow’s deadline, they could still move rentals Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Kiermaier and Trevor Richards. They could also consider deals for guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Chad Green or Chris Bassitt, who are each making notable salaries through 2025. If they manage to reset their CBT status this year, it would mean they could pay the tax in 2025 as a “first-time” payor instead of a “third-time” payor while also having lower penalties for signing free agents that rejected qualifying offers. MLBTR explored Toronto’s CBT situation a couple of weeks ago.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that Turner was going to the Mariners. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times first relayed that a prospect was involved that it was Schreck (X link one and two). Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the cash considerations.

Blue Jays Listening To Trade Offers On Isiah Kiner-Falefa

By Darragh McDonald | July 28, 2024 at 12:58pm CDT

Blue Jays infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been on the 10-day injured list since the start of July due to a a left knee sprain, but he started a rehab assignment yesterday and could perhaps be traded prior to Tuesday’s deadline. Even if he’s not reinstated by then, trades of players on the IL are allowed and the Jays are willing to listen to offers, per both Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet on X and Robert Murray of FanSided.

Kiner-Falefa, 29, has long been a glove-first utility man. In his career, he has received strong grades for his work at the three infield spots to the left of first base. He’s also played all three outfield slots with some passable marks out there. Through the end of 2023, he had hit just .261/.314/.346 for a wRC+ of 81 but had stolen 74 bases in 98 tries.

The Jays signed him in the offseason to a two-year deal that paid him $15MM plus $1MM in incentives and he was having the best offensive showing of his career prior to the knee injury. He had seven home runs in 83 games, which isn’t a massive total but a nice jump for IKF personally as his career high is eight. He was only drawing walks at a 4.6% clip but also limited strikeouts to a 13.2% rate. His current .292/.338/.420 batting line translates to a 116 wRC+ in this year’s offensive environment.

Kiner-Falefa has close to 3,000 innings at shortstop in his career with 27 Defensive Runs Saved in that time. Outs Above Average has him at -5, but most of that is due to a -6 tally back in 2021. In almost 1500 innings at third base, he has 24 DRS and 24 OAA. His second base track record is barely over 400 innings but has nonetheless translated to 8 DRS and 2 OAA, while his over 500 innings in the outfield have been just a bit below par.

The Blue Jays are clear sellers but have mostly been focused on moving rental players. They’ve already traded Yimi García to the Mariners, Danny Jansen to the Red Sox and could look to flip Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier and Trevor Richards in the coming days. While they are reportedly not trying to move core controllable guys like Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they are clearly at least willing to entertain moving some non-rental guys. They recently traded Nate Pearson to the Cubs despite Pearson having two extra seasons of control beyond this one.

Kiner-Falefa could perhaps garner interest due to the lack of other infielders that are available, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently examined in a piece of Front Office subscribers. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is already off the board after being acquired by the Yankees. Brandon Drury and Paul DeJong are having underwhelming seasons.

There are a few guys out there, such as Luis Rengifo of the Angels. The Rays have Amed Rosario and are probably open to offers on Brandon Lowe and Isaac Paredes, though the prices on the latter two should be pretty notable. The Reds might listen on Jonathan India but it’s unclear how available he really is. Ditto for Nico Hoerner of the Cubs.

Even after getting Chisholm, the Yankees are still looking for help at third base. Clubs like the Rangers, Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mariners, Atlanta and the Pirates could be looking for infield upgrades in the coming days. Perhaps the imbalance between supply and demand will lead to the Jays getting some interesting calls. They could always keep Kiner-Falefa for the second year of his deal but their infield mix has also changed since they signed him.

Ernie Clement has essentially been performing the role IKF was brought in for, providing quality defense at multiple spots with a contact-based approach at the plate. Spencer Horwitz moved from first base to second base due to Guerrero being locked in at first. Horwitz has been hitting well while seemingly performing capable enough at the keystone. Leo Jiménez is covering shortstop with Bichette on the injured list. Orelvis Martinez will be back in the mix after he serves his 80-game PED suspension. Guys like Addison Barger and Davis Schneider are also capable of playing some infield. On the outfield, even without Kiermaier next year, the Jays currently project to have George Springer and Daulton Varsho with Barger and Schneider in play, as well as Jonatan Clase, recently acquired in the Garcia trade.

Perhaps IKF is more useful to them at this point as a trade chip than as a part of their 2025 plans. IKF’s contract has a $7.5MM competitive balance tax hit for the year but an acquiring club would only be taking on about a third of that by trading for him now. It’s also possible the Jays could look to eat some of the money owed to him in order to facilitate a deal.

Red Sox Acquire Danny Jansen

By Anthony Franco | July 28, 2024 at 12:57am CDT

The Red Sox turned to a division rival to upgrade behind the plate. Boston announced the acquisition of Danny Jansen for a trio of prospects: infielders Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino and pitcher Gilberto Batista. Boston designated reliever Alex Speas for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Jansen is the second impending free agent traded by Toronto in as many days. They sent righty reliever Yimi García to Seattle yesterday.Yusei Kikuchi is a lock to move by next Tuesday, while Trevor Richards, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier could go as well. The Jays have thus far been resistant to trading key players whom they control beyond this season.

The 29-year-old Jansen is the top impending free agent catcher. He once seemed to be running away with that title and looked on track for a three- or four-year deal. That’s not the case anymore, as his bat has wilted over the past couple months. Jansen carried a robust .287/.371/.535 slash line into June. He’s hitting .134/.232/.196 in 112 plate appearances since that point. His walk and strikeout rates are right around average, but he only has one home run and four extra-base hits over the past two months.

Jansen’s overall .212/.303/.369 slash is seven percentage points below league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s fine output for a catcher but below Jansen’s typical level. He was an above-average hitter in all three seasons from 2021-23, combining for a .237/.317/.487 mark in 754 trips to the plate. At his best, Jansen blends a patient approach with good contact skills and double-digit homer power. He’s amidst one of the worst stretches of his career but clearly has the talent to perform better than he has over the past couple months.

Before his recent slump, the biggest knock on Jansen was his lack of availability. He has been on the injured list seven times over the past four seasons due to hamstring, oblique, groin, and hand injuries. Some of those were fluke occurrences suffered on a hit-by-pitch, including a season-opening IL stay this year due to a right wrist fracture sustained in Spring Training. Nevertheless, the injuries have dealt a hit to his value. Jansen has only once reached 90 games in a season. His career high sits at 107 games played and 384 plate appearances back in 2019.

The Red Sox have had one of the more productive catching groups in baseball. They entered play today with a .280/.349/.407 slash at the position. That’s almost entirely because of a breakout year from Connor Wong, who’s hitting .299/.362/.440 in 77 games. Backup Reese McGuire owns a .209/.280/.295 mark over 53 contests. McGuire is out of options and could eventually be squeezed off the roster. Boston will otherwise need to carry three catchers.

Jansen is a quality defender who could split time between catcher and designated hitter. He’s also a right-handed hitter, a stated goal for Boston chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, though he’s been more productive against same-handed pitchers than southpaws over the past few years. The Sox may still look for a more traditional lefty masher who could rotate through the outfield.

The Jays and Jansen agreed to a $5.2MM salary for his final arbitration season. Boston will take on roughly $1.8MM. RosterResource calculates their competitive balance tax number just shy of $220MM. Pushing near $222MM still leaves them with roughly $15MM before reaching the base threshold, so the front office should have plenty of financial margin for future pickups.

Toronto continues its look towards the future. Coffey, a right-handed hitting infielder, was a second-round pick out of high school two seasons ago. The 20-year-old has spent the entire year in High-A, where he owns a .238/.321/.463 slash line. Coffey has drilled 14 homers and 12 doubles in 61 games. He’s walking at a solid 10.3% clip against a slightly elevated 24% strikeout rate. He has played mostly third base with some action at both middle infield spots.

Paulino, 22, ranked 18th on Baseball America’s most recent update of Boston prospects. The native of the Dominican Republic is hitting .263/.349/.391 in 69 games at Double-A Portland. He only has three homers but has decent walk (10.4%) and strikeout (21.6%) numbers. Like Coffey, he has spent the majority of his time at third base and handled all three infield spots to the left of first. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason. Batista is a 19-year-old rookie ball pitcher who signed out of the Dominican Republic during the 2022-23 international period.

Speas has kicked around the waiver wire all season. Boston grabbed the hard-throwing righty from the Astros at the end of June. He has spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he’s allowing more than 11 earned runs per nine innings. A former second-round pick of the Rangers, Speas has four major league games under his belt. He runs his fastball into the triple digits but he’s walking more than a batter per inning in the minors. The Sox will likely try to sneak him through waivers in the next few days.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Jays and Red Sox were in serious discussion on a Jansen deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed a deal was in place and was first to report Coffey’s inclusion. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com added that the Jays were receiving three prospects in total.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena

By Mark Polishuk | July 27, 2024 at 2:51pm CDT

The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”

The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield. An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months. Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.

It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign. Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.

“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field. Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field. As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.

Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade. “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link). Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.

As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall. This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season. This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM. RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.

The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market. The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance. Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.

In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday. Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.

Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder. While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.

Astros Interested In Flaherty, Kikuchi

By Anthony Franco | July 27, 2024 at 1:46pm CDT

The Astros are one of the teams most aggressively seeking starting pitching. They’ve already been tied to Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde, and (before he was traded to Baltimore instead) Zach Eflin. Reporting yesterday also linked Houston to the top two rental starting pitchers on the market.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted last night that the Astros and Tigers have talked about righty Jack Flaherty. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome writes that Houston has interest in both Flaherty and Toronto southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Flaherty and Kikuchi are each expected to move before next Tuesday’s deadline. The left-hander told reporters after last night’s start — almost certainly his last in a Jays uniform — that Toronto GM Ross Atkins has already informed him that he’s likely to be traded (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). The Tigers haven’t made quite as strong a declaration on Flaherty, but they’re three games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the American League’s last Wild Card spot.

Flaherty is having the better season of the two. The 28-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He owns a 2.95 earned run average across 18 starts. He’s averaging nearly six innings per appearance and missing bats at an elite rate. Flaherty has punched out a personal-best 32% of opposing hitters. His walk rate is below 5% for the first time in his career. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Garrett Crochet has a bigger gap between his strikeout and walk percentages. Flaherty is fifth among that group in strikeout rate, 14th in ERA and seventh in swinging strike percentage (14.1%).

Kikuchi also has plus strikeout and walk numbers, though he’s not missing quite as many bats as Flaherty has. Kikuchi is 24th in swinging strike rate and ranks 18th with a 26.2% strikeout percentage. He has fired 115 2/3 innings across 22 starts. His 4.75 ERA isn’t all that impressive, yet that mark is inflated by a very high .340 average on balls in play and a modest 70.6% strand rate. Kikuchi’s BABIP and left on base numbers were closer to league average last season, when he worked to a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts.

Astros general manager Dana Brown discussed his rotation pursuit with reporters on Friday afternoon (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Brown said the team would be happy with a “a third starter or a fourth starter” who could slot behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and perhaps a healthy Justin Verlander in the rotation. (Ronel Blanco has also had an excellent season, but he’s in uncharted territory in terms of MLB workload.) Brown said it’d be “real difficult” to land someone who slots into the top two spots in the rotation, pointing to the lack of supply in high-end arms this summer.

One can debate whether Flaherty qualifies as a #1/#2 arm. He has certainly pitched at that level this year, but he’s one season removed from running a 4.99 ERA with middling strikeout and walk numbers. Kikuchi fits more clearly into the #3/4 starter bucket which Brown described, as home run issues have kept him from ever reaching a consistent top-of-the-rotation level.

While that could point to Kikuchi being the more likely target, the Astros seem engaged on a number of fronts. Houston has one of the weaker farm systems in the majors, but the limited control window on Flaherty and Kikuchi will cap the return to some extent. Brown noted that while he’d ideally land a pitcher who is controllable beyond this season, the Astros aren’t averse to acquiring a rental. He added that there’s no one in the minor league pipeline he’d consider categorically untouchable, though he indicated he preferred to avoid dealing directly off the MLB roster.

Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player who made Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect update. The Tigers could justifiably ask for him in a Flaherty deal. Detroit has the ability to make Flaherty a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him this summer. Assuming he signs for more than $50MM next winter, the Tigers would get a compensatory pick after the 2025 first round. They’d need to value any trade package more heavily than they do the pick (plus whatever small chance they have of making a playoff push this year). Jake Bloss, who is currently working out of the big league rotation, is the #2 player on BA’s most recent update of the Astros’ system. He’s followed by 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews and another current big leaguer, outfielder Joey Loperfido.

Flaherty is playing this season on a $14MM salary, while Kikuchi is making $10MM in the final season of a backloaded three-year deal. The former is due around $4.82M for the stretch run; the latter is still owed around $3.44MM. Any salary the Astros take on would count against their luxury tax ledger, which already sits at a franchise-high $256MM (calculated by RosterResource).

The Astros will be taxed at a 32% rate for salary they absorb when their payroll is between $257MM and $277MM. Brown broadly indicated the team was open to adding salary, saying that owner Jim Crane “understands that it’s important for us to get a starter … so I don’t think payroll is going to hold us back.”

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