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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

MLB Announces All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2021 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place in Coors Field on Tuesday, July 13. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

National League

American League

*On the 60-day injured list

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Hopes To Play Third Base in 2021

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has every intention of playing third base in 2021, per Emily Sadler of Sportsnet.ca. Guerrero understands why the move was made, but the decision to move Vlad Jr. to first was in part to protect him from a knee injury that contributed to his struggles at the hot corner in 2018. With the injury behind him, Guerrero apparently has some newfound fervor to turn himself into a viable option at third. Vlad’s defensive marks at first in 2020 were similar to his DRS and UZR at third base in 2019, which is to say they weren’t great (-4 DRS, -13.8 UZR/150). To his credit, Vlad took responsibility for letting himself fall out of shape during the pandemic shutdown.

If Guerrero succeeds, the Blue Jays could broaden their free agent search to include a full-time first baseman or second baseman. Cavan Biggio could move to first base full-time, leaving Toronto to explore pacts with Kolten Wong, DJ LeMahieu, or Cesar Hernandez, suggests Shi Davidi of sportsnet.ca. Of course, that probably presumes not only that the Jays are comfortable with Vlad at third, but that they are comfortable committing to him there for a couple of seasons. They have the designated hitter to play with as well, and Biggio’s versatility serves as a safety net of sorts, but it’s still worth a consideration. Travis Shaw is the incumbent at third, but he’s not likely to return as the full-time starter (.239/.306/.411 in 2020).

Timing might be an even bigger factor than Guerrero’s progress at the third for Toronto, depending on how quickly the hot stove shapes up. There are a number of high-profile third baseman available via trade should the Jays choose to go that route. This year’s platinum glove winner Nolan Arenado could theoretically be available via trade from the Rockies, as is Kris Bryant of the Cubs. Bryant can move around the diamond a bit as well, so even a star acquisition at third doesn’t preclude manager Charlie Montoyo from utilizing Vlad at both infield corners. Beyond LeMahieu, World Series champ Justin Turner is probably the best option at third base, though we here at MLBTR predict Turner to return the Dodgers.

Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Shoemaker, Vlad

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Bo Bichette figures to be one of the centerpieces for the Blue Jays for the foreseeable future, but the budding superstar said on Sportsnet’s Good Show this week that a contract extension isn’t anything he’s thinking about at this time (audio clip).

“It’s been brought up and it’s definitely something I’m interested in, but at the same time I’m not going to sell myself short,” said Bichette. “We’ll see what happens. Right now, I’m not too worried about. I’ve still got a lot to prove in my career, and really the last thing on my mind is a contract extension.”

He’s only played in 75 games at the MLB level, but Bichette looks the part of an All-Star right now. The former top prospect has put together a .307/.347/549 slash with 16 home runs, 27 doubles, a triple and eight steals through his first 340 trips to the plate. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2022 season and is controlled all the way through 2025, however, so there’s ample time for the Jays to worry about financial matters down the road. Of course, the more Bichette established himself and the closer he inches to arbitration or free agency, the more the price tag on an extension will rise.

A couple more notes on the Jays…

  • Right-hander Matt Shoemaker also joined The Good Show this week to chat about his time with the organization and his upcoming venture into free agency. The 34-year-old was dominant in five starts with the Blue Jays in 2019 before suffering a torn ACL that ended his season. He returned in 2020 with lesser results, but Shoemaker’s overall body of work in Toronto was solid: 11 starts, 57 1/3 frames, 3.14 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, 50-to-18 K/BB, 49.7 percent ground-ball rate. Home runs were a huge issue in 2020, but Shoemaker could represent a reasonably affordable piece of rotation depth and made clear that he’d love to return. “I just want to go to a team that’s just hungry, right?” said Shoemaker. “And the Jays are hungry, man. Like, we’ve got this really young team who just love the game, fiery players, really talented.”
  • Toronto GM Ross Atkins said at season’s end that the Jays haven’t given up on the idea of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being able to play some third base, even if he’s not a primary option there. The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm makes a case against prioritizing versatility in this case and opines that Guerrero should simply be left to try to hone his craft at first base. Chisholm notes that defensive metrics and the eye test alike have panned Guerrero at both positions but likens Guerrero’s move across the diamond to the one made by Edwin Encarnacion several years ago — a move that eventually resulted in Encarnacion putting up some solid defensive marks at the less-demanding position. Guerrero still needs to develop better instincts at the spot, and getting regular reps at the spot should help.

AL Injury Notes: Osuna, Cruz, Mariners, Guerrero, Iglesias

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Some injury notes from around the American League:

  • Astros’ closer Roberto Osuna has progressed to throwing, per GM James Click (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Osuna was seemingly ticketed for a Tommy John surgery after going down with an elbow injury earlier, although the reliever instead elected to rehab and attempt to return this season. The likelihood of that happening isn’t clear, but it’s generally encouraging to hear that he’s throwing again.
  • Twins’ DH Nelson Cruz was scratched from today’s lineup against the Cubs. He’s dealing with right knee soreness, per various reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Eddie Rosario, who was initially slated to start in left field, got to DH instead, with LaMonte Wade, Jr. taking over in left. Cruz has again been among MLB’s best hitters, slashing .314/.403/.623 over 201 plate appearances.
  • A pair of Mariners are unsurprisingly out for the season, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter links). Catcher Tom Murphy has been shut down; he’ll miss the entire year due to a fractured metatarsal in his left foot. Outfielder Mitch Haniger continues to build up strength and endurance but hasn’t yet begun baseball activities, per Divish. Like Murphy, Haniger missed all of 2020.
  • The Blue Jays held Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. out of today’s lineup as a precaution, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (via Twitter). The young first baseman felt “a little dizzy” after being hit by a pitch in the helmet last night, per Nicholson-Smith. The Jays can afford to slow play things with Guerrero, as they sit four games up on Seattle for the final playoff spot in the American League.
  • Orioles’ shortstop José Iglesias left tonight’s game after getting hit on the left hand by a Charlie Morton pitch, relays Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Pat Valaika stepped in at short in his stead. The 30-year-old Iglesias, a longtime defensive stalwart, has been stellar when healthy for Baltimore, hitting .377/.406/.515 in 139 plate appearances. He has been diagnosed a left wrist contusion, per Roch Kubtako of MASNsports.com (Twitter link).

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Shifts To First Base

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We knew this moment would come. We just didn’t know it would happen this soon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will make first base his primary position moving forward, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (via Twitter).

After one full season at third base, the 21-year-old power phenom will focus his attentions on becoming a primary first baseman and designated hitter. Vlad committed 17 errors in 94 starts at the hot corner in 2019. The advanced metrics didn’t care much for his effort either (-9 DRS, -9.4 UZR). Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged Vlad last in the league (tied with the Twins’ Jorge Polanco) with -16 OAA.

Offensively, there’s little doubt that Vlad Jr. has one of the most prodigious power strokes in the game, even at such a young age, and this move allows him to focus on what he does best. Vlad Jr. stroked 15 home runs over 514 plate appearances while slashing .272/.339/.433 as a 20-year-old. The move across the diamond was an eventuality, and in some ways, it makes sense to make the move as soon as possible rather than spend development time at a position without a long-term future. It’s certainly possible Guerrero Jr. ends up as a primary designated hitter, but he’ll try his hand at first in 2020.

With Vlad Jr. shifting over to first, Travis Shaw expects to get most of the playing time at third, per Nicholson-Smith. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hasn’t played any third, but the infielder/outfielder could presumably pick it up, while second baseman Cavan Biggio played a little bit at the hot corner in Triple-A. Breyvic Valera is also capable of handling third.

Shaw, signed as a free agent, is coming off a bizarrely disappointing showing in 2019 as he hit just .157/.281/.270 across 270 plate appearances with the Brewers. That allowed the Blue Jays to snag him on the cheap, as they’ll hope he rebounds to something closer to his career line of .243/.327/.451.

Blue Jays Notes: Extension Talks, Pre-Arb Salaries, Yamaguchi

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Let’s check in on the latest regarding the Blue Jays, all coming via Sportsnet …

  • President Mark Shapiro covered a variety of matters in a recent chat with the Writers Bloc show (audio link). Of particular interest was his discussion of the team’s potential young extension targets. Shapiro obviously wasn’t willing to address specifics, but did indicate that the team is inclined to reach deals where possible. On the possibility of extensions, he said fans can “assume we’ve explored it or are exploring it with every one of our young players that we have a strong belief are going to be good players and here for a long time.” Actually getting a deal done is obviously a different story; there, Shapiro spoke of negotiations as “sharing risk” for the future.
  • Most of the team’s top potential extension targets have little MLB service time, so they’re in the class of players that have no effective control over their salaries. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports, the Jays were able to get agreement on 2020 earnings with all of their pre-arbitration players, rather than being forced to renew certain players who weren’t pleased with what was offered. (Contract renewals are a symbolic gesture but can impact a team’s relationship with a player. We discussed this in a recent MLBTR YouTube video.) While there has been some grumbling around the game, the Jays seem to have earned plaudits for enunciating and sharing a complete list of their salary offers with an explanation for the formula utilized in reaching them. You can find all of the specific Jays salaries in the above link. Budding stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio each landed in the $570K to $580k range. The MLB minimum for the coming season is $563,500.
  • Newly inked righty Shun Yamaguchi isn’t making things easy on his new club — in a good way. As Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes, the former Japanese star has worked through some difficulties to turn in a strong recent outing. As we explored recently, he’s one of many conceivable candidates for the fifth starter job. Nicholson-Smith writes that Trent Thornton remains the front-runner, but the Jays will surely be glad to maintain some competition and feel good about the status of their depth. Yamaguchi, 32, will slide into the pen if he doesn’t crack the rotation.

MLBTR Poll: Vlad Jr.’s Second Season

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Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. debuted in the major leagues to great fanfare in 2019. The son of a Hall of Famer, Guerrero earned his first promotion toward the end of April – only one month after his 20th birthday. He joined the Blue Jays despite limited experience in Triple-A Buffalo, where he garnered just 162 plate appearances from 2018-19. The sample size may have been small, but Guerrero nonetheless ran roughshod over the highest level of the minors, thereby convincing the Blue Jays he was ready for prime time.

Thanks in part to his stellar production at lower levels, Guerrero was considered an all-world prospect at the time of his promotion. Indeed, four different outlets (Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus) ranked him as the game’s premier farmhand at the time. Guerrero ultimately didn’t make an enormous impact as a rookie, hitting .272/.339/.433 with 15 home runs in 514 trips to the plate, but that production’s still nothing to scoff at for a first-year man who was among the youngest players in the league last season.

Set to turn 21 on March 16, Guerrero figures to be one of the sport’s most fascinating sophomores in 2020, and the revamped Jays are no doubt hoping he’ll help key a resurgence for the club. For what it’s worth, the big-bodied Guerrero has come to camp in better shape this spring, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet wrote last month. The slimmer Guerrero’s now aiming to increase his launch angle, Andrew Stoeten of The Athletic recently relayed.

Guerrero’s mean launch angle checked in at just 6.7 degrees last year, while his expected weighted on-base average (.330, compared to a .329 real wOBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage all hung around the league’s 50th percentile, per Statcast. However, heading into Year 2, projection systems are bullish. ZiPS, for instance, calls for a .285/.349/.497 line (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 571 trips to the plate. Those aren’t superstar-level numbers, but they would represent a nice step forward for such a young hitter.

All that said, let’s hear from you on how you expect Vlad Jr. to perform at the plate this season. Where will his OPS land? How many homers will he hit? (Poll links for app users)

Injury Notes: Paxton, Hale, Hicks, Vlad Jr.

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Yankees ace James Paxton exited his final start of the season on Friday after just one inning because of left glute tightness, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Paxton’s removal was a precautionary measure, and were it not for the looming postseason matchup with the Twins, Paxton likely could have pitched through what he described as “dull soreness.” The rotation is New York’s biggest question mark going into the playoffs, and Paxton is clearly a key piece. He’s 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA/3.87 FIP across 150 2/3 innings for the season, landing fairly close to career marks both in terms of efficiency and durability. Paxton’s status as the likely ALDS game one starter is not at present affected by his early departure on Friday, though he will certainly be monitored closely, and one would think it might affect the amount of leash given him in the ALDS opener. In other injury news heading into Saturday’s action…

  • The Yankees PR department announced David Hale’s reinstatement from the 60-day injured list. Hale, 32, had a strong start to the season going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA/3.30 FIP across 19 innings. He last pitched on July 26 against the Red Sox, finishing a strong month of July when he posted a 2.63 ERA. Hale has a part in two major storylines of the Yankees season, both as a resident of the overfull trainer’s room, and as one of the many unsung contributors to their 2019 success.  Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, was moved to the 60-day injured list. It’s been mostly a lost season for Hicks, who nonetheless contributed 1.2 bWAR in 59 games when healthy via a .235/.325/.443 line with 12 home runs.
  • Rookie fan favorite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was scratched from today’s lineup with right knee soreness, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. If Vlad Jr. misses both of the Blue Jays final games, he’ll finish his rookie season with a .272/.339/.433 line across 123 games while notching 15 home runs and 69 RBIs. His 105 wRC+ is not perhaps the world-breaking debut that many expected, but in effort and showmanship, Vlad Jr. more than held his own. His performance at the home run derby will go down as the defining moment of his rookie season, where he showed the national audience more than enough to justify the hype of the past few seasons.

AL East Notes: Moreland, Jays, Hays

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First baseman Mitch Moreland’s time with the Red Sox is on the verge of ending, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe suggests. The soon-to-be free agent is likely on his way out of Boston in favor of a “younger and cheaper” option, per Abraham, who lists Michael Chavis and prospect Bobby Dalbec as immediate possibilities. While Moreland’s position, age (34) and production won’t lead to a particularly lucrative trip to free agency, he’s not fretting about the open market right now. “It was bad the last two times I went into free agency and I came out of it with a job,” Moreland told Abraham. “I’m not really worried about it yet. I just want to enjoy this last week with these guys. It’s a great group. I’ll worry about the rest when I get there.” Moreland, who has earned $18.5MM on a pair of deals with the Red Sox since 2017, is finishing up an injury-limited year. He owns a .246/.325/.502 line with 18 home runs in 317 plate appearances thus far.

  • Blue Jays outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is out for the rest of the year with appendicitis, manager Charlie Montoyo told Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet and other reporters. While Gurriel struggled during a truncated second half (he just came back from a month-long absence because of a strained left quad), this will go down as an encouraging season for the 25-year-old. Gurriel slashed .277/.327/.541 line and swatted 20 homers in 343 PA, and he acquitted himself decently in his first experience as a major league outfielder (minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved, plus-0.3 Ultimate Zone Rating).
  • Third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., yet another young Blue Jays building block, surprised over the weekend when he suggested via an interpreter he has never lifted weights. It turns out that isn’t the case, though. Guerrero clarified his prior remarks on Monday, telling Alexis Brudnicki of MLB.com and other media through an interpreter: “They wrote that I never lifted weights before. That sounds like ’before’ — never even in the Dominican, the States, with the team, and that wasn’t what I was saying. I was very clear, and I said that I never lifted weights in the offseason in Dominican Republic. I did a lot of other things, conditioning things, but weights at the gym, never did it before” (Sportsnet’s Arash Madani, whom Guerrero made his comments to last week, has the full transcript of their original conversation). Guerrero went on to state that he’ll add a weight program to his regimen this offseason in order to better prepare for the grind of a 162-game schedule. The 20-year-old has played in a professional-high 133 games between the majors and minors this season, including 120 with Toronto.
  • After a couple injury-ravaged years, it appears outfield prospect Austin Hays is working his way into the Orioles’ season-opening plans for 2020. Hays has only played a couple weeks in the majors this year, but he has made the most of it, as Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com writes. Indeed, with a .314/.364/.627 line and four home runs in 55 PA since his Sept. 7 call-up, the 24-year-old is “making a really strong case that he can play here,” manager Brandon Hyde told Melewski. It’s not just Hays’ marvelous late-season offensive production that has turned heads, though, as Hyde noted “he’s shown us that he can play center field defense.”

AL Notes: Yankees, Miley, Vladito

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post had an interesting profile today of a Yankees pitching staff at a crossroads (link). After losing Domingo German and Dellin Betances to suspension and injury, respectively, over the past several days, the AL East-champion Bombers find themselves with a pitching picture very much in flux. “I don’t look at it as frustrating,” pitching coach Larry Rothschild told Sherman. “I look at it as a problem to solve. We have to figure out what we are going to do. You would love to have those two guys obviously. But we don’t, so we have to move forward.” As Sherman points out, German’s loss may be particularly impactful, as his multi-inning ability may force skipper Aaron Boone to opt for a 13-man pen in the playoffs instead of a 12-man pen.

While Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Aroldis Chapman, and Zack Britton are all ’locks’ for the postseason staff, the final spots are more of a toss-up after the team’s loss of German and Betances. Luis Cessa, Cory Gearrin, Tyler Lyons, Stephen Tarpley, Ben Heller, and Jonathan Loaisiga are names floated by Sherman as possibilities to round out Boone’s October pen corps.

More notes from around the AL this Saturday eve…

  • The Astros are facing what the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome deems a “full-fledged fourth starter crisis” after another uninspiring performance from the previously steady Wade Miley (link). In Saturday’s game against the Angels, Miley failed to complete more than one inning for the third time in four starts. The 32-year-old Miley had looked to be a coup for the Astros front office after signing a one-year/$4.5MM deal this offseason, with a 3.06 ERA through his first 156 innings this year. Unfortunately, the calendar’s turn to September has spelled doom for Miley, who has allowed 18 earned runs in 7 ⅓ September innings. Manager A.J. Hinch is voicing somewhat of a hedged belief in the experienced lefty: “We’re going to figure it out,” manager A.J. Hinch told Rome. “He’s going to be really effective for us. But given the time, it’s a difficult time to assess because he’s got one start left before we need to make some decisions.” Looking back, regression was probably coming for Miley all along, as those first 156 innings were undermined by a .263 BABIP and 4.36 FIP mark.
  • In a somewhat more humorous note to conclude tonight’s news, Sportsnet’s Arash Madani passes along an eyebrow-raising nugget concerning Blue Jays rookie Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero Jr., it seems, doesn’t owe his prodigious power to an intensive weight room regimen: “I’ve never worked out at the gym before,” Guerrero Jr. told Madani. “I’ve never lifted weights before.” While it’s roundly mystifying to consider that “Vladito” has achieved phenomenal athletic fame without ever committing himself to either a ’leg’ or ’upper body’ day, it still may be disconcerting to Jays fans taking a sidelong glance at the youngster’s to-this-point suspect defense. Vlad Jr. has logged a -4 DRS figure in 792 innings at third base this year, with 17 errors to his credit. Guerrero Jr. tells Madani that he will be newly committing himself to weight training this offseason with the intent of remaining at third base moving forward.
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