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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026

By Steve Adams | October 6, 2025 at 4:23pm CDT

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, our agency database and our GM tracker.

The projections:

Angels (10)

  • Taylor Ward (5.164): $13.7MM
  • Brock Burke (5.045): $2MM
  • Connor Brogdon (4.090): $1MM
  • Jo Adell (4.085): $5.5MM
  • Carson Fulmer (4.018): $1.2MM
  • Reid Detmers (3.159): $2.6MM
  • Jose Soriano (3.121): $3.2MM
  • Carter Kieboom (3.009): $800K
  • Logan O’Hoppe (3.008): $2.9MM
  • Zach Neto (2.170): $4.1MM

Astros (16)

  • Mauricio Dubon (5.162): $5.8MM
  • Steven Okert (5.089): $2MM
  • Luis Garcia (5.083): $2.2MM
  • Ramon Urias (5.025): $4.4MM
  • Bryan Abreu (5.022): $5.9MM
  • Enyel De Los Santos (5.015): $2.1MM
  • Chas McCormick (4.161): $3.4MM
  • Isaac Paredes (4.160): $9.3MM
  • Jesus Sanchez (4.118): $6.5MM
  • Jake Meyers (4.044): $3.5MM
  • Jeremy Pena (4.000): $7.9MM
  • Hunter Brown (3.035): $5.7MM
  • Yainer Diaz (3.035): $4.5MM
  • Hayden Wesneski (2.170): $1.5MM
  • Bennett Sousa (2.156): $1.1MM
  • Taylor Trammell (2.144): $900K

Athletics (5)

  • Austin Wynns (5.017): $1.8MM
  • Shea Langeliers (3.051): $5.1MM
  • JJ Bleday (3.029): $2.2MM
  • Ken Waldichuk (2.150): $900K
  • Luis Medina (2.149): $900K

Blue Jays (7)

  • Daulton Varsho (5.128): $9.7MM
  • Eric Lauer (5.091): $4.4MM
  • Dillon Tate (5.018): $1.7MM
  • Nick Sandlin (4.157): $2MM
  • Ernie Clement (3.168): $4.3MM
  • Ryan Burr (3.109): $800K
  • Tyler Heineman (3.066): $1MM

Braves (8)

  • Jake Fraley (5.097): $3.6MM
  • Jose Suarez (4.064): $1.5MM
  • Alek Manoah (4.063): $2.2MM
  • Dylan Lee (3.150): $1.9MM
  • Eli White (3.140): $1.2MM
  • Vidal Brujan (3.014): $800K
  • Joey Wentz (2.166): $1.1MM
  • Nick Allen (2.164): $1.5MM

Brewers (7)

  • Jake Bauers (5.084): $2MM
  • Andrew Vaughn (4.142): $7.8MM
  • William Contreras (4.112): $11.1MM (Brewers hold a $12MM club option with a $100K buyout)
  • Nick Mears (4.022): $1.6MM
  • Trevor Megill (4.002): $4.2MM
  • Garrett Mitchell (3.040): $1MM
  • Brice Turang (2.165): $4.4MM

Cardinals (9)

  • Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
  • JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
  • John King (4.148): $2.1MM
  • Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
  • Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
  • Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
  • Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
  • Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
  • Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MM

Cubs (4)

  • Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
  • Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
  • Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
  • Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM

Diamondbacks (11)

  • Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM
  • A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
  • Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
  • Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
  • John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
  • Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM
  • Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM
  • Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
  • Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM
  • Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM
  • Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM

Dodgers (9)

  • Brusdar Graterol (5.167): $2.8MM
  • Tony Gonsolin (5.152): $5.4MM
  • Evan Phillips (5.136): $6.1MM
  • Alex Vesia (5.078): $4.1MM (Dodgers hold a $3.55MM club option with a $50K buyout)
  • Anthony Banda (4.135): $1.7MM
  • Brock Stewart (4.093): $1.4MM
  • Ben Rortvedt (3.135): $1.3MM
  • Michael Grove (3.031): $800K
  • Alex Call (2.161): $1.5MM

Giants (5)

  • JT Brubaker (5.162): $2.1MM
  • Andrew Knizner (5.090): $1.3MM
  • Joey Lucchesi (5.047): $2MM
  • Ryan Walker (2.136): $2.5MM
  • Patrick Bailey (2.136): $2.2MM

Guardians (8)

  • Kolby Allard (5.004): $1.9MM
  • Sam Hentges (4.157): $1.3375MM
  • Steven Kwan (4.000): $8.8MM
  • Ben Lively (3.133): $2.7MM
  • Nolan Jones (3.007): $2MM
  • Will Brennan (2.155): $900K
  • David Fry (2.154): $1.2MM
  • Matt Festa (2.153): $1MM

Marlins (7)

  • Anthony Bender (4.153): $2.3MM
  • Braxton Garrett (3.168): $1.53MM
  • Edward Cabrera (3.147): $3.7MM
  • Ryan Weathers (3.066): $1.5MM
  • Andrew Nardi (3.053): $800K
  • Max Meyer (2.166): $1.3MM
  • Calvin Faucher (2.156): $1.9MM

Mariners (10)

  • Trent Thornton (5.148): $2.5MM
  • Randy Arozarena (5.129): $18.2MM
  • Logan Gilbert (4.144): $10MM
  • Gabe Speier (4.000): $1.7MM
  • George Kirby (3.151): $5.4MM
  • Tayler Saucedo (3.146): $1.1MM
  • Matt Brash (3.121): $1.8MM
  • Luke Raley (3.106): $1.8MM
  • Gregory Santos (3.055): $800K
  • Bryce Miller (2.153): $2.4MM

Mets (9)

  • Luis Torrens (5.105): $2.2MM
  • Tyrone Taylor (5.093): $3.6MM
  • David Peterson (5.089): $7.6MM
  • Nick Madrigal (5.087): $1.35MM
  • Tylor Megill (4.031): $2.6MM
  • Max Kranick (3.011): $1MM
  • Huascar Brazoban (2.170): $1.3MM
  • Francisco Alvarez (2.164): $2.4MM
  • Reed Garrett (2.143): $1.4MM

Nationals (9)

  • Jorge Alfaro (5.160): $1MM
  • Luis Garcia Jr. (4.142): $7MM
  • Josiah Gray (4.075): $1.35MM
  • Mason Thompson (4.022): $1MM
  • MacKenzie Gore (4.000): $4.7MM
  • Riley Adams (3.171): $1.5MM
  • CJ Abrams (3.130): $5.6MM
  • Jake Irvin (2.152): $3.3MM
  • Cade Cavalli (2.141): $1.3MM

Orioles (14)

  • Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM
  • Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM
  • Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM
  • Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM
  • Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM
  • Jose Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM
  • Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM
  • Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM
  • Felix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM
  • Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM
  • Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM
  • Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM
  • Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM
  • Albert Suarez (3.019): $900K

Padres (7)

  • Adrian Morejon (5.140): $3.6MM
  • Jason Adam (5.132): $6.8MM
  • Gavin Sheets (4.076): $4.3MM
  • JP Sears (3.065): $3.5MM
  • Luis Campusano (3.003): $1MM
  • Mason Miller (2.166): $3.4MM
  • Freddy Fermin (2.165: $1.8MM

Phillies (9)

  • Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
  • Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
  • Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
  • Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
  • Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
  • Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
  • Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
  • Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
  • Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM

Pirates (9)

  • Dennis Santana (5.126): $3.4MM
  • Johan Oviedo (4.078): $2MM
  • Joey Bart (4.020): $2.7MM
  • Justin Lawrence (3.167): $1.2MM
  • Yohan Ramirez (3.135): $1.2MM
  • Colin Holderman (3.120): $1.7MM
  • Oneil Cruz (3.110): $3.6MM
  • Dauri Moreta (3.056): $800K
  • Jack Suwinski (2.170): $1.7MM

Rangers (9)

  • Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
  • Adolis Garcia (5.095): $12.1MM
  • Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
  • Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
  • Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
  • Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
  • Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
  • Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
  • Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM

Rays (16)

  • Shane McClanahan (4.158): $3.6MM
  • Cole Sulser (4.096): $1.2MM
  • Taylor Walls (4.092): $2MM (Rays hold a $2.45MM club option with a $50K buyout)
  • Griffin Jax (4.091): $3.6MM
  • Garrett Cleavinger (4.060): $2.1MM
  • Shane Baz (3.158): $3.1MM
  • Nick Fortes (3.149): $2.4MM
  • Christopher Morel (3.117): $2.6MM
  • Stuart Fairchild (3.114): $900K
  • Josh Lowe (3.093): $2.9MM
  • Bryan Baker (3.049): $1.5MM
  • Ryan Pepiot (3.005): $3.7MM
  • Alex Faedo (2.169): $800K
  • Kevin Kelly (2.156): $1MM
  • Richie Palacios (2.156): $1MM
  • Edwin Uceta (2.150): $1.4MM

Red Sox (9)

  • Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5MM
  • Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95MM
  • Jarren Duran (3.155): $8.4MM (Red Sox hold an $8MM club option with a $50K buyout)
  • Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75MM
  • Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8MM
  • Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6MM
  • Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7MM
  • Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K
  • Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1MM

Reds (13)

  • Brady Singer (5.156): $11.9MM
  • Santiago Espinal (5.149): $2.9MM
  • Gavin Lux (5.114): $5MM
  • Tyler Stephenson (5.056): $6.4MM
  • Ian Gibaut (4.077): $1.5MM
  • Sam Moll (4.023): $1.2MM
  • Nick Lodolo (4.000): $4.3MM
  • Graham Ashcraft (3.130): $1.4MM
  • TJ Friedl (3.112): $4.9MM
  • Tony Santillan (3.099): $2.4MM
  • Spencer Steer (3.035): $4.5MM
  • Will Benson (3.003): $1.7MM
  • Matt McLain (2.140): $2.6MM

Rockies (7)

  • Thairo Estrada (5.153): $3.8MM (Estrada’s contract contains a $7MM mutual option with a $750K buyout)
  • Jimmy Herget (4.069): $1.5MM
  • Mickey Moniak (4.027): $4.2MM
  • Lucas Gilbreath (3.150): $900K
  • Ryan Feltner (3.071): $2.3MM
  • Tyler Freeman (3.046): $1.8MM
  • Brenton Doyle (2.161): $3.2MM

Royals (15)

  • Taylor Clarke (5.148): $1.9MM
  • Kris Bubic (5.135): $6MM
  • John Schreiber (5.027): $3.8MM
  • Jonathan India (5.000): $7.4MM
  • Kyle Wright (4.151): $1.8MM
  • Kyle Isbel (4.043): $2.7MM
  • Bailey Falter (3.138): $3.3MM
  • Daniel Lynch IV (3.136): $1.3MM
  • Sam Long (3.121): $950K
  • Vinnie Pasquantino (3.101): $5.4MM
  • Angel Zerpa (3.082): $1.2MM
  • Michael Massey (3.068): $2MM
  • MJ Melendez (3.016): $2.65MM
  • Maikel Garcia (2.168): $4.8MM
  • James McArthur (2.150): $800K

Tigers (14)

  • Tarik Skubal (5.114): $17.8MM
  • Casey Mize (5.111): $5.4MM
  • Jake Rogers (5.040): $2.9MM
  • Will Vest (4.100): $3.3MM
  • Zach McKinstry (4.099): $3.5MM
  • Matt Vierling (4.026): $3.1MM
  • Jason Foley (3.150): $3.15MM
  • Alex Lange (3.145): $900K
  • Andy Ibanez (3.133): $1.8MM
  • Riley Greene (3.110): $6.6MM
  • Spencer Torkelson (3.076): $5.1MM
  • Kerry Carpenter (3.057): $3.5MM
  • Beau Brieske (3.056): $1.3MM
  • Tyler Holton (3.047): $1.7MM

Twins (10)

  • Genesis Cabrera (5.149): $1.4MM
  • Ryan Jeffers (5.089): $6.6MM
  • Justin Topa (5.044): $1.7MM (Twins hold a $2MM club option with a $225K buyout)
  • Michael Tonkin (5.044): $1.4MM
  • Bailey Ober (4.093): $4.6MM
  • Joe Ryan (4.033): $5.8MM
  • Trevor Larnach (4.014): $4.7MM
  • Royce Lewis (3.142): $3MM
  • Anthony Misiewicz (3.082): $1.1MM
  • Cole Sands (3.017): $1.3MM

White Sox (2)

  • Mike Tauchman (5.143): $3.4MM
  • Steven Wilson (3.166): $1.5MM

Yankees (14)

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. (5.075): $10.2MM
  • David Bednar (5.073): $9MM
  • Mark Leiter Jr. (5.031): $3MM
  • Clarke Schmidt (4.148): $4.9MM
  • Camilo Doval (4.071): $6.6MM
  • Jake Cousins (3.091): $841K
  • Ian Hamilton (3.081): $941K
  • Luis Gil (3.073): $2.1MM
  • Scott Effross (3.063): $800K
  • Jake Bird (3.051): $1MM
  • Oswaldo Cabrera (3.050): $1.2MM
  • Fernando Cruz (3.035): $1.3MM
  • Anthony Volpe (3.000): $3.9MM
  • Jose Caballero (2.170): $1.9MM
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Arbitration Projection Model MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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Dodgers Notes: Smith, Ohtani, Glasnow

By Darragh McDonald | October 6, 2025 at 3:38pm CDT

The Dodgers took the first game of their NLDS matchup against the Phillies. As they gear up for the second contest, manager Dave Roberts revealed some notes about the roster. Notably, Roberts said that Will Smith could start behind the plate in Game Three, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.

The club has largely been without Smith for about a month. He took a foul ball off his throwing hand in early September, suffering a hairline fracture, and hasn’t played much since. He has been on the club’s postseason roster but hasn’t started a game yet. He did enter the first game against Philly as a pinch hitter, striking out twice and getting hit by a pitch. Ben Rortvedt has taken up the lion’s share of playing time with Smith out and is in the starting lineup again tonight but it seems possible Smith is trending towards retaking that playing time.

That’s potentially a huge boost for the Dodgers. Smith had a massive .296/.404/.497 line and 153 wRC+ this year. Rortvedt has managed a massive .500/.571/.667 line in the playoffs this year, but in a tiny sample of just three games. He’s obviously not going to maintain that production, especially when considering his .190/.279/.270 line in his regular season career. Even though Smith is getting healthier, he may not be immediately available to resume his previous level of production, so his condition could be an ongoing storyline as long as the Dodgers stay alive.

Roberts also confirmed the club’s rotation plans. Game one starter Shohei Ohtani will take the ball in game five, if necessary, and won’t be available out of the bullpen before then. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register was among the reporters to pass that along.

It’s quite common for starting pitchers to be available in the bullpen during the playoffs. More off-days allow clubs to shrink their rotations, which leads to some guys getting nudged out. Also, the “all hands on deck” nature of playoff baseball makes teams and players push things beyond normal comfort levels.

The idea of Ohtani making relief appearances has been kicked around but it’s understandable why the Dodgers would lean against it. For one thing, his workload is already double that of the normal player, given his status as a two-way player. Adding in some extra relief work would only tax him further.

There’s also the in-game strategy component of it. MLB implemented a rule in 2022 that would allow a starting pitcher to be removed from his pitching duties but stay in the game as the designated hitter. This basically only applies to Ohtani, so it’s often referred to as the “Shohei Ohtani rule”. But if Ohtani is not the starting pitcher and enters as a reliever, then is removed, he would have to either come out of the game or play a defensive position.

Taking all that into consideration, it’s understandable that the Dodgers are keeping things simple. Blake Snell is starting game two tonight with Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking the ball in game three. It seems likely that Tyler Glasnow will start game four, though he did make a relief appearance on Saturday. He came in after Ohtani and logged an inning and two thirds, throwing 34 pitches in the process. Despite that relief outing, Roberts said yesterday that Glasnow was in line to start Game Four, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Ohtani would then start Game Five, though Snell would also be on normal rest by then and could be a factor.

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

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Los Angeles Dodgers Notes Shohei Ohtani Tyler Glasnow Will Smith (Catcher)

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Carlos Narvaez To Undergo Knee Surgery

By Steve Adams | October 6, 2025 at 3:22pm CDT

Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez will undergo a “cleanup” procedure on the meniscus in his left knee, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow announced Monday at his end-of-season press conference (link via Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald). He’s expected to be ready for spring training.

Narvaez played through much of the second half with pain in his knee. He missed four straight games in early August due to the injury. Narvaez’s splits from the season generally reflect that the catcher was playing at less than 100 percent down the stretch. From Opening Day through July 9, he slashed .280/.354/.453 in 274 turns at the plate. From that point through season’s end, Narvaez turned in a lowly .181/.229/.369 batting line. His strikeout rate climbed in each of the season’s final three months and reached a boiling point by mid-September; Narvaez fanned in a bit more than 23% of his plate appearances through the season’s first three months but went down on strikes in 13 of his final 44 plate appearances (29.5%).

Even with the ugly finish to the season, Narvaez’s overall 2025 campaign was a roaring success. Acquired from the archrival Yankees in exchange for pitching prospect Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Narvaez broke camp as the backup in Boston but quickly laid claim to the starting catching job. He finished out the year with a roughly league-average batting line of .241/.306/.419 (97 wRC+) and swatted 15 home runs in his first big league season. Narvaez also graded out as a plus defender, thwarting 28% of stolen-base attempts against him while delivering above-average grades for pitch framing and blocking balls in the dirt (via Statcast).

Narvaez’s ascension dovetailed with regression from former starter Connor Wong. Assuming all goes well with Narvaez’s knee procedure, he’s the favorite to head into spring training as the Red Sox’ starting catcher next season. Boston has an additional five full seasons of club control remaining, and Narvaez won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2027 season.

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Boston Red Sox Carlos Narvaez Connor Wong

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today 2pm CT

By Steve Adams | October 6, 2025 at 1:59pm CDT

Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time. Looking forward to it!
  • Let's begin!

Dave

  • Instead of signing K Tucker to $450 million and 10 years should the Dodgers reunite with Cody Bellinger for $150 million and 5 years?   Thanks

Steve Adams

  • I think that's a bit heavier than what both would get. I don't really expect the Dodgers to be prime players for Tucker, as I've said. Obviously they can afford to, but they've really only gone to the absolute top of the market/long-term for Yamamoto (25 years old), Ohtani (unicorn for obvious reasons) and, to a lesser extent, Betts (who was a year younger than Tucker and was an extension at a price that didn't break the bank as some might've expected).Adding Tucker (or Bellinger, for that matter) when they already have Pages and Teoscar (through 2027) just seems to further take potential ABs away from Dalton Rushing and prospects like Josue De Paula and Zyhir Hope.

    Maybe they just love Tucker and don't care about blocking all those guys -- they could all be traded, I suppose -- but I'm just not big on the idea of the Dodgers shelling out nine figures for any outfielder this winter. (Others on the MLBTR staff are more open to the idea than I am, for what it's worth)

ArchTiger

  • Can a HR-driven team win in the playoffs?

Steve Adams

  • You'd have to go back to the 2019 Nationals to find the most recent time a team outside the top four in terms of home run output won the World Series. I assume you're talking more about teams that are dependent solely on home runs to score, but even that's a little different in the playoffs versus the postseason. You're just not going to face a team's fifth starter or sixth-best reliever in the playoffs unless the game's already out of hand. Every club is a little more homer-dependent in the postseason, because they're facing better pitchers who make fewer mistakes, so the difference will often come down to who can capitalize most often on the relatively fewer number of mistake pitches they see.

Ned Colletti’s Toupee

  • Does Munetaka Murakami’s value take a hit because he’s limited to a corner outfield or first base?  I know he will get paid but I don’t see him getting Yamamoto money.

Steve Adams

  • Murakami's value takes a hit because he strikes out too much in Japan, even against lesser pitching, has struggled in the past against above-average velocity (I don't have his '25 numbers against MLB-caliber fastballs handy, but the average NPB heater is like 91-92 mph), and yes, because he's a poor defender who's best suited at 1B in all likelihood.
  • I imagine there might be clubs willing to play him at 3B briefly early in his MLB run.
  • He's probably a 1B long term, but I don't think 325MM like Yamamoto has ever been plausible since his numbers dipped a bit after the back-to-back MVP wins in 2021-22. He's still going to cash in on something worth more than $100MM in all likelihood, but to your point, I wouldn't be surprised if he signed for less than half of what Yamamoto got

Steve from the Cleve

  • Cleveland needs an OF bat that can hit LHP. Robert Jr can't be had since he's on the White Sox and expensive. Tyrone Taylor was Tim Dierkes suggestion, but you might as well play Petey Halpin instead since he's a great fielder, runner and had a .734 OPS in AAA. Seems like there aren't any good options who are younger than 33

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Nick Hundley Interviews For Giants’ Managerial Opening

By Nick Deeds | October 6, 2025 at 1:10pm CDT

October 6th: Hundley has now been interviewed by the Giants, reports Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle.

October 5th: As the Giants get their managerial search underway following Bob Melvin’s recent dismissal, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that catcher Nick Hundley is “strongly in the mix” for the job. It’s unclear whether Hundley has interviewed for the position at this point, but the fact that his name has come up so clearly is nonetheless notable.

Hundley, 42, was a big league catcher for parts of 12 seasons and served as the Giants’ primary backup to Buster Posey for the 2017 and ’18 seasons. After serving under Posey as part of the team’s catching tandem, it now appears Posey has interest in bringing Hundley in to serve as his manager now that he’s become San Francisco’s president of baseball operations. Hundley immediately jumped into an off-the-field role with the league upon announcing his retirement in 2020, as he became a senior director of baseball operations with the commissioner’s office.

He spent two years in that role before departing the league office to take up a job in the Rangers organization, where he serves as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Chris Young. Hundley won a World Series in the organization in 2023, and during that playoff run was actually a candidate to manage the Giants when then-president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was looking to replace Gabe Kapler in the dugout. At the time, it was reported that Hundley had withdrawn himself from consideration before receiving an interview due to family considerations. He had talked to both Zaidi and Posey himself about the role before making that decision, however, indicating that he had at least some level of interest.

With no interview confirmed to have taken place, it’s not necessarily a lock that Hundley would accept the opportunity to interview if offered given his past decision to decline that invitation. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that whatever concerns Hundley had about jumping back into the grind and travel involved with a managerial role have resolved themselves in the past two years, or even that the idea of reporting directly to a former teammate like Posey holds enough appeal to get him involved in the process again. It’s also worth noting that Heyman made clear Hundley has “no guarantees” of landing the position, even in the event he has changed his mind about his desire to manage.

Whatever the case may be regarding Hundley’s candidacy, he’s far from the only person the Giants will talk to about their managerial gig. Former All-Star and longtime Oakland A’s catcher Kurt Suzuki is known to have interviewed for the position. Former Giants bullpen coach Craig Albernaz, now in Cleveland as Stephen Vogt’s bench coach and associate manager, is “expected to get a look” for the job as well. It’s worth noting that all three of Hundley, Suzuki, and Albernaz have connections to the Bay Area, though that may not necessarily be something Posey is looking for specifically in his next manager. Whoever next sits in the manager’s chair for the Giants will be an external hire, as Posey is not expected to interview any members of the current coaching staff for the job.

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NPB’s Takahiro Norimoto Mulling Potential Move To MLB

By Steve Adams | October 6, 2025 at 11:51am CDT

Right-hander Takahiro Norimoto of the Rakuten Eagles in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is planning to exercise his international free agent rights and gauge interest from both MLB and NPB teams this winter, per a report from Yahoo Japan (hat tip to Yakyu Cosmopolitan). He’s hired the Wasserman agency to represent him in talks with major league teams, per the report. The now-34-year-old righty moved to the bullpen in 2024 after a lengthy and successful run as a starting pitcher. He’s spent the past two seasons as the Eagles’ closer.

Norimoto is older than most players making the transition from NPB to MLB. He’ll turn 35 in December. The right-hander is coming off a nice year with the Eagles, having pitched to a 3.02 ERA with 16 saves, four holds and only two blown saves. His 17.2% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate don’t exactly stand out, though Norimoto has still shown the ability to run his heater up in the 97 mph range since moving to the bullpen last season. He kept nearly 50% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground this past season as well.

Norimoto hasn’t had issues missing bats in the past. He led NPB in strikeouts for five straight years, from 2014-18, while working out of the Eagles’ rotation. He’s pitched 1838 career innings in NPB and recorded a 3.12 ERA while winning 120 games, saving another 48 and punching out nearly 24% of his opponents (against a 6.3% walk rate).

Due to the fact that Norimoto is at least 25 and has at least six full seasons of professional experience, he’s exempt from Major League Baseball’s international bonus pool structure. The fact that he has more than nine seasons of service in NPB means he is also exempt from the posting system. If he indeed exercises those international free agent rights, he’d be free to sign with any club on a big league or minor league deal — provided MLB teams have sufficient interest in the former Pacific League Rookie of the Year and six-time NPB All-Star.

While we don’t see too many players jump to MLB in their mid-30s, Orioles right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano did just that in 2025. This past year was Sugano’s rookie season in MLB and came in his own age-35 campaign. Sugano, of course, did so as a starter. Former Red Sox righty Hirokazu Sawamura and former D-backs/Mariners righty Yoshihisa Hirano are more recent examples of relievers making relatively successful moves to MLB in their mid-30s; the former signed with Boston ahead of his age-33 season in 2022, while the latter signed with Arizona ahead of the 2018 campaign, his age-34 season.

Big league clubs are always on the lookout for affordable bullpen help, so there could still be interest in Norimoto even if he’s not as coveted at 35 as he might’ve been in his physical peak. As a rotation-mate of former Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka for Tanaka’s first three seasons back in Japan after his run in the Bronx, Norimoto has surely picked the former MLB All-Star’s brain about moving to the majors in the past. It’s not entirely certain he’ll be pitching in North America next year, but he’s an interesting wild card entrant into the offseason bullpen market.

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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

By Darragh McDonald | October 6, 2025 at 10:14am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2025 regular season is now over and the playoffs are in full swing. Do you have a question about the season which just ended? The postseason? The upcoming offseason? If you have a question on those topics or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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The Opener: NLDS, Yankees, Managerial Searches

By Nick Deeds | October 6, 2025 at 8:58am CDT

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. NLDS Game 2:

While the ALDS had its second game of the series yesterday, the NL had a day off. The NLDS will resume today with games in Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Phillies will be looking to avoid dropping a second consecutive home game to the Dodgers after Teoscar Hernandez’s three-run homer gave Los Angeles a 5-3 lead they would not relinquish. At 6:08pm local time this evening, a duel between opposing lefties will begin as two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell steps up for the Dodgers to face off against Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo. Three hours later (8:08pm local time), the Brewers will take the field and try to put the Cubs on the brink of elimination while Chicago will try to put Saturday’s 9-3 drubbing in the past and send a tied series to Wrigley Field. Lefty Shota Imanaga will be on the mound for the Cubs today. The Brewers will use fellow southpaw Aaron Ashby as an opener with right-hander Quinn Priester likely to handle bulk innings.

2. Yankees on the brink:

The Yankees managed to win back-to-back elimination games against the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Series last week, but now they’ll need to win three consecutive elimination games if they hope to stay alive and advance to the ALCS after they were no-hit by Blue Jays rookie Trey Yesavage through 5 1/3 innings while the Jays’ offense piled on 13 runs by the end of the sixth inning. While New York rallied a bit against the Toronto bullpen, it wasn’t enough to stop the Bombers from entering today’s off-day staring down the possibility of getting swept in front of their home crowd on Tuesday.

3. Managerial searches continue:

While the playoffs continue, a number of teams eliminated from the postseason are on the hunt for a new manager. Skip Schumaker has already been hired in Texas to replace Bruce Bochy, but that still leaves vacancies in Colorado, Baltimore, San Francisco, Minnesota, Atlanta, Anaheim, and Washington D.C. New candidates emerged for the Giants and Angels yesterday, but other potential candidates like Mets executive Andy Green have passed on the opportunity to be considered for a managerial gig. With so many vacancies yet to be filled, plenty of intriguing candidates will emerge over the next few weeks as teams conduct interviews and ask rival organizations for permission to speak with their employees.

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Brett Phillips Retires

By Mark Polishuk | October 5, 2025 at 10:43pm CDT

Outfielder Brett Phillips has announced his retirement after seven Major League seasons.  In an Instagram reel released today, Phillips credited his career to his family, his faith, and to many people in and out of baseball that helped him achieve his success.  Beyond those named in his speech, the 31-year-old Phillips also had a whiteboard full of names of many former teammates and executives who played key roles in his career.

Phillips hit .187/.272/.347 with 31 homers over 971 plate appearances and 393 games during his MLB career, while playing for five different clubs at the big league level.  Phillips’ speed was his chief offensive weapon, as he stole 39 bases on 45 career attempts.  That speed also helped him deliver outstanding defense at all three outfield positions — over his 2321 1/3 innings as a big league outfielder, Phillips amassed +41 Defensive Runs Saved, +31 Outs Above Average, and a +13.0 UZR/150.

The Astros made Phillips a sixth-round pick in the 2012 draft, though before he could make his debut in the Show, Houston dealt Phillips as part of the huge trade at the 2015 deadline that brought Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers from Milwaukee.  Phillips was one of four pieces of the very prominent trade package acquired by the Brew Crew, as Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, and Domingo Santana were the other members of the haul.  Not to be overshadowed at the time of the trade, Phillips was drawing top-100 prospect attention heading into the 2016 season and for a couple of years afterwards.

Phillips got his first taste of the majors in 2017, and he appeared in 52 games for the Brewers over the next two seasons before the outfielder was moved to the Royals in another notable deadline deal that saw Mike Moustakas shipped from K.C. to Milwaukee.  This tenure in Kansas City stretched over parts of three seasons before Phillips was dealt again to the Rays partway through the abbreviated 2020 season, which set the stage for the most memorable moments of Phillips’ career.

Tampa Bay won the AL pennant that year, with Phillips chipping in as a defensive specialist during the rest of the regular season and then as a defensive sub and pinch-runner throughout the playoffs.  He had just three plate appearances during the postseason, and his one hit during that stretch couldn’t have been bigger.  With the Dodgers holding a 7-6 lead over the Rays with two outs in the bottom of the ninth of Game 4, Phillips lined a single that tied the game, and ended up as the walkoff hit when Randy Arozarena also scored on the play due to a Will Smith catching error.  Beyond the hit itself, Rays fans will always remember the image of Phillips’ celebratory airplane-style sprint around the outfield.

The following season saw Phillips deliver his best year at the plate, as he hit .206/.300/.427 with 13 homers and 14 steals (out of 17 attempts) in 292 PA while playing in a part-time outfield role in Tampa Bay.  His numbers dropped off sharply in 2022, however, and the Rays designated him for assignment and then dealt Phillips to the Orioles.

Phillips moved on to play 39 games with the 2023 Angels in what proved to be his last MLB campaign, as subsequent minor league deals with the White Sox and Yankees didn’t result in any more calls to the Show.  His stint with the Yankees saw the start of a new career path for Phillips, as he attempted to convert to pitching.  Phillips’ final stop of his career came with Kane County of the independent American Association this year.

Beyond his energy and contributions on the field, Phillips became a fan favorite and social media darling due to his outgoing personality.  “Baseball Is Fun” became Phillips’ unofficial catchphrase, and he finished his retirement announcement by repeating his mantra one more time.  We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Phillips on a fine career and we wish him plenty of more fun in his post-playing endeavors.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | October 5, 2025 at 9:41pm CDT

Mark P

  • The Weekend Chat (postseason edition) is here! We’ll take a minute for some questions to stack up, and then pitter patter, let’s get at ’er

Phillie Phanatic

  • If Phils lose does Thomson get fired?

Mark P

  • I’m not sure there’s anything that be pointed at as Thomson’s fault, in relation to why the Phillies aren’t able to get over the hump and win a title.  But, with relatively little roster flexibility, it’s possible a managerial change might be viewed as a step that can be taken to try and shake things up.

    If Thomson wanted to continue managing, I suspect he might find another job as early as this offseason, given his track record and how many teams are looking for new dugout bosses

Ca$hman

  • Did Devin Williams late season resurgence get him into qualifying offer territory and if so does he accept it?

Mark P

  • He would absolutely accept it, but there’s no chance the Yankees would float $22MM to a reliever coming off such an inconsistent season.

Joe

  • Do the Reds trade for a middle of the order bat or sign one? What would they have to trade?

Mark P

  • Given their payroll limitations, a trade seems more likely, though the Reds should or could be able to find a decent hitter at a reasonable price.  Martinez and Pagan both coming off the books frees up a big chunk of payroll space that Cincinnati can re-invest towards a big bat.

    On the trade front, the Reds technically have a pitching surplus.  But, like I say about any team that seemingly has “too much” pitching, trading one arm and then running into an injury or two can very quickly put a team into a rotation hole.  So, if the Reds go this route, they’ll have to be very careful about who they’d trade.

Boomington

  • Christian Walker a good fit for Reds?

Mark P

  • If the Reds are going to trade for someone, probably not the guy entering his age-35 season, who is owed $40MM over the next two seasons, and is coming off a 99 wRC+ year

Read more

Jim

  • When do the Arb projections drop?

Mark P

  • I believe they’re coming this week, and possibly as early as tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Mariners

  • I’m both nervous and confident…. which one wins out versus the tigers?

Mark P

  • Losing Game 1 was a real blow to the Mariners with Skubal going tonight.  If the Tigers are up 2-0 with the series going back to Detroit and Skubal on tap again for a hypothetical Game 5, the M’s are in major hot water.

Ang T

  • Is it a given that Vientos replaces Alonso if Pete leaves in free agency?

Mark P

  • In my Mets offseason outlook from the other day (self-promotion, woo hoo!), I suggested that the Mets could sign a veteran left-handed bat to platoon with Vientos.  Someone like a Cody Bellinger who can play both 1B and the outfielder would be ideal, though Bellinger is a nice fit on a lot of teams.

    Vientos’ offense was so lackluster in 2025 that if you’re the Mets, I’m not sure how confident you can be in just handing him the first base job outright.

Dylan beavers

  • Do I get extended this off-season

Mark P

  • /checks MLBTR Agency Database
    /sees Beavers is repped by someone other than Scott Boras

    Yes, it’s possibility!  Now that Basallo has been extended, you wonder if that breaks the seal on the Orioles locking up more players from this second wave of the young core.  Beavers is repped by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, who has negotiated other early-career extensions for the likes of Jackson Chourio and Kristian Campbell

Mets fan

  • Should I expect the mets to have the same coaching staff layout with a pitching and hitting coach with an asst for each or is it possible we get an associate manager, offensive coordinator, field coordinator, etc?

Mets shakeup

  • Were you surprised to see to the Mets fire so many coaches? Hefner had a pretty good reputation as a pitching coach before this year and Stearns didn’t do a good job of giving him much to work with this year.

Mark P

  • Speaking of people who won’t be unemployed for long, I expect Hefner to quickly land on another MLB staff for 2026.  I agree with the assessment that the Mets’ pitching struggles were more due to personnel and a flawed approach to the rotation more than anything Hefner did.  (That said, there’s also the caveat that I don’t know what was happening within the Mets clubhouse.)

    As to the team’s coaching titles, it’s possible they might switch up some titles and responsibilities, perhaps to more directly specify coaches into specific duties.  Probably depends on who they end up hiring.

Bobby Cox

  • I thought Skip S would have been a good choice for us. I dont want Ross, maybe DeRo or eddie p. How about you?

Mark P

  • A few months ago, I predicted that John Gibbons would be the Braves’ next manager.  I’ll continue to stand by that call in the wake of the news that Gibbons is leaving the Mets’ bench coach job.

Kwan

  • As rough as the outfield situation had been in Cleveland, it feels like they hang on to me for this next season.

Mark P

  • Kwan is arb-controlled through 2027, and the Guardians traditionally wait to deal a player prior to his final year before free agency. So unless the Guards are out of the race at the deadline (like this year!….wait….), Kwan will probably get traded next winter

Guardians of the Galaxy

  • Given the absolutely abysmal offense displayed by the Guardians this season, do you see ownership finally opening their wallets at least a little to acquire some reliable offense (OF/INF) or should we expect another year of bottom-dwelling offense while we waste quality pitching and JRam’s prime?

Mark P

  • You’re preaching to the choir on this.  Moving Gimenez’s contract and most of Straw’s contract opened up a lot of extra money for the Guardians, plus Emmanuel Clase’s contract might well be wiped off the books by a suspension.

    This is a team with only $37.2MM committed to next year’s payroll even with Clase’s money still considered.  Even with a gigantic arb class pushing that number up, you’d think there would be some urgency to bring in some kind of proven bat.

Rodney

  • The Jays fired on all cylinders the first two games against the Yanks, but baseball fortunes can turn on a dime. Where does your biggest fear lie with the team?

Mark P

  • As we saw today, Toronto’s relief corps is very shaky.  That doesn’t bode well for the bullpen game the Jays have lined up for Game 4, if the Yankees can win Game 3.

    Speaking as a Jays fan, I’m obviously very happy with the series thus far, but I’m absolutely not counting my chickens yet

Stevie Wonder

  • Do the Royals resign Jonathan India?

Mark P

  • I’d think pretty hard about non-tendering him.  It would be a tough pill to swallow just a year after trading away Singer for him, but India had a sub-replacement season. The money KC can save with a non-tender can be spent on a better replacement for 2B, or for outfield help

Tigers Rock!

  • Favorite Detroit rockers?  Funkadelic, the Stooges, MC5, or Alice Cooper?

Mark P

  • I assume that by “rockers” you’re not counting umpteen incredible Motown artists (like Stevie Wonder, who just asked that Royals question).  If so, my answer is the White Stripes.

Mark

  • Would the Rangers move Langford? What do you think they would ask for from the Red Sox? I think his bat would be special in Fenway.

Mark P

  • Firstly, Langford is maybe the last person the Rangers would trade.  Secondly, the Red Sox have an outfield surplus already.

Angels fan

  • What are the playoffs that this chat is speaking of?

Mark P

  • Cast your mind back to the magical 2002 season…

Blake

  • With the Texas Rangers seemingly heading toward austerity, do you think they will try to move any surprising names this off-season?

Mark P

  • Loosely translated, this means “which of the big four contracts do you think is most movable”?

    Semien is least-tradable, Seager is next, and the Rangers would get a lot of interest if they shopped deGrom or Eovaldi.  Frontline pitching is always valuable, even for two veterans with injury histories making significant money.

    DeGrom getting through 2025 healthy is a big plus for his market, and Eovaldi was incredible when healthy this year.  One wrinkle for Eovaldi’s trade market is the possibility of a sports hernia surgery, so teams may be unsure about how his offseason routine will be disrupted

Angry Fan

  • Have you ever witnessed a fanbase as mad as Pittsburgh Pirates fans currently are?

Mark P

  • I’m not even sure if the Pirates are the angriest current fanbase.  Angels, Rockies, Twins, White Sox, etc.

Brewers Fan

  • I’m not sure who you had going into it, but if Chourio missed the rest of it, does that change your view of the series?

Mark P

  • I still think Milwaukee wins with or without Chourio, but obviously losing him would be a blow

Verlander

  • Do the giants resign me?

Mark P

  • They need pitching and JV did well enough in 2025 that you’d assume the Giants would welcome a reunion.  The ball might be in Verlander’s court about whether he’d like to return to a familiar spot, or perhaps seek out a team better positioned to contend

Don Zimmer

  • PCA has peaked, and his career year is over. He hits 230 vs LHP and is an easy out vs same. What can we get if we trade him in Dec?

Mark P

  • The Cubs would get an absolute haul for a pre-arb player who’s turning 24, and who (at minimum) is a speed demon with Gold Glove-level defense in CF

    As much as PCA tailed off in the second half, there is absolutely zero chance the Cubs move him.

Frank Drebin Jr

  • Have you changed your World Series prediction yet or are you still confident?

Mark P

  • My preseason pick was Dodgers/Royals.  I won’t lie, I don’t love KC’s chances of reaching the Series.  Not being in the playoffs is a real setback.

David

  • Wells or Rice as the Yankees’ primary catcher next year?

Mark P

  • Wells, with Rice moving in as the primary first baseman and occasional backstop

Rockies Front Office

  • Who do you feel will be the front runners for the Rockies front office role?

Rockies FO

  • Any rumblings on the person to replace Bill?

Mark P

  • This will be one of the more interesting GM searches in a while, just because it’s so unlike the Rockies to go outside the organization for a hire.  Who knows what their criteria might be, or how they’re approaching this process.

    I tend to agree with the idea that they’ll turn to someone who has worked with the Rox in the past.  For all the Thad Levine buzz, his tenure in Colorado only slightly overlaps with the Monforts’ purchase of the team, so I’m not sure he’s exactly the known quantity to the Monforts that people think.

Bobby Cox

  • I could see Sox signing ozuna to a 1 year deal. They could use him

Mark P

  • The Red Sox?  They probably need to keep the DH spot open, either for Yoshida or to cycle multiple guys through.

    The White Sox?  Hey, why not, as a veteran bat who can probably then become trade bait at the deadline.  Even for Chicago, however, they might prefer to keep their DH spot free for getting Quero and Teel both into the lineup as much as possible

Torii Hunter

  • Should I add wash to my staff if I am the manager?

Mark P

  • Speculative on my part, but my guess is that Washington wouldn’t want to return to a team that just fired him as manager.

    Wash’s most probable landing spot might be back in Atlanta as a coach on the new manager’s staff.  As for the Angels, I do think that if the new skipper is a first-timer like Hunter or Pujols, hiring an experienced bench coach is a must.

Guest

  • Don’t get Cardinals thinking are the going to youth or not

Mark P

  • They certainly are this time around.  Given how the veterans with no-trade clauses are all at least “thinking about” waiving their protection, the writing is on the wall about the rebuild.

Phil

  • Which MLB veteran do you see having the most difficult time finding a Major League contract next season, similar to the way that JD Martinez and Anthony Rizzo did?

Mark P

  • We just mentioned Ozuna in a recent question, and he might fit the bill.  His numbers were okay (21 homers, 114 wRC+) but way down from his previous two seasons.  Ozuna turns 35 next month, he’s a DH-only player, and his past off-the-field issues make him a no-go for some teams automatically.

Ang T

  • Which route will the Mets go to acquire a staff Ace?

Mark P

  • Valdez might be the closest thing to a clear-cut ace in this year’s free agent market, given the questions about Cease and Gallen.  (And Tatsuya Imai, who is an unknown against North American hitting.)  So based on scarcity alone, the Mets are likelier to go the trade route for frontline pitching.

Joe

  • Are the Rangers able to move any of their big contracts before next season?  If so will the return be worth it?

Mark P

  • I think there’s some logic in selling high on DeGrom or Eovaldi, because as great as they looked in 2025, the injury risk won’t just go away.

    The problem is that if you deal one of those two, that opens up yet another hole in a rotation that may lose all of Mahle, Kelly, and Corbin to free agency.

Ebenezer_Batflip

  • Seems like everyone said Story would almost never opt-out, but his season has substantially exceeded expectations and he only has 2 years left on his deal, which would end during a potential CBA lockout. Feels like he’s the kind of guy who would prioritize getting a 3rd of 4th year over AAV money. What do you think? Story opts out or stays in Boston?

Mark P

  • Story is owed $25MM in both 2026 and 2027, plus he’ll get another $5MM on his buyout of a $25MM club option for 2028.  So that’s $55MM left on the table if he does opt out, and his contract does last through the end of the CBA following the 2026 season.

    Story turns 33 next month, and he’s coming of a 101 wRC+ season.  The counting numbers look better than the overall offensive impact for Story, and his defense really dropped off significantly, to boot.  All in all, I suspect he stays in his contract, since his market might not be all that robust.  Besides, why not stick around in Boston on a very promising young team?

  • Worth noting that if he did opt out, the Red Sox could override his decision by guaranteeing Story’s 2028 salary.  But, I think we can rule that scenario out.

Felix

  • Did Shane Bieber show enough in his abbreviated 2025 to get a multi-year pact?

Mark P

  • 40 1/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball, with pretty good peripherals (especially a great walk rate) but a lot of homers allowed.  A lot of teams would happily give Bieber multiple years off that production.

Hits Like Rays

  • Chances that the Rays keep Christopher Morel around next year for only about $800k?

Mark P

  • Morel’s arb-eligible salary won’t be much, but he also hasn’t shown much since arriving in Tampa Bay.  The Rays have their usual gigantic arbitration class that I have yet to entirely sift through, but between their usual slate of trades and non-tenders, I’d lean towards Morel being elsewhere in 2026

Marlins

  • Willson conteras as our trade. His contract is underwater, but he supplies defense and offense at first, send lottery ticket for STL to pay half the contract. Sign a good RP and we are a wildcard team

Mark P

  • I don’t even think I’d call his contract underwater, considering that Contreras has been quite steady over his three years in STL.

    Miami is an interesting team to watch this winter since they “might” pivot to a bigger move or two if they feel they can legitimately contend.  I do kinda think they’re more prone to play it more conservative, but since we don’t know how Bendix will operate once he gets the green light to build a competitive team (or spend), it’s a bit of a question mark

  • Plus, don’t forget that Contreras has a no-trade clause.  So he’d have to be convinced that the Marlins will be pushing to contend before he signs off on such a trade.

Cry young

  • Crochet vs skubal but what about Chapman or freid?

Mark P

  • Both have good cases for top-five finishes, even if I think most voters will favor starters over Chapman.

Larry

  • Is AJ Preller’s job safe? Seems like it is too late to move on after letting him gut the farm .

Mark P

  • Preller’s contract is up after the 2026 season, so ownership will be making a decision on his future sooner rather than later.  My guess is that he’ll get another extension since the Padres keep winning, even if they haven’t broken through for consistent playoff success

Ohtani

  • MVP again as this king deserves or some other mortal?

Mark P

  • Going forward, we should be thinking about what it’ll take for Ohtani to “not” win MVP, assuming he stays healthy.  If it wasn’t for Judge having one of the best hitting seasons of all time, Ohtani would have four MVPs in a row and be rolling towards a fifth.

Mariners

  • Polanco seems to have skubals number

Mark P

  • In these chats last winter and spring, I vaguely recall naming Polanco re-signing with the Mariners as perhaps the offseason’s most baffling move.

    Whoops!

Trip

  • Edwin Diaz to the Braves possible?

Mark P

  • The Braves generally don’t go quite that big in free agency, and Diaz will be looking for a deal at least matching his current contract.  I don’t see a fit, and if I had to pick Diaz’s 2026 team, my guess is a reunion with the Mets

Tiny Tigs

  • Any chance ownership and the front office stop sitting on their hands and sign some real vets to compliment the young players on the team? Sick of 1 year deals, expecting to make a legit push when it matters

Mark P

  • In fairness, Detroit did try to sign Bregman, so they at least attempted to make a splashier long-term signing.  Wouldn’t shock me if Bregman is on their radar again this winter, as well some other bigger names.

    A full season of competitive baseball and the September scare should probably convince ownership to spend a little more, though we should wait until the Tigers’ season is actually, y’know, over.  If they make the ALCS or better, our takes on Detroit’s strategy will look a lot different.

Squatter Talk

  • Was Shea Langeliers’ season under appreciated?

Mark P

  • Absolutely, in part because the A’s generally fly under a lot of fans’ radar

CT

  • Do you think Shane McClanahan could be traded if he pitches well next season?

Mark P

  • McClanahan is arb-eligible for the third of four trips this winter, and will get just a minimum raise since he didn’t pitch this year.  All his injuries have pushed his salaries down enough that he likely won’t get expensive enough for the Rays to pursue trading.
  • Say he returns to have a full and healthy 2026 with ace-level numbers.  That bumps his 2027 salary up to perhaps $8MM or $8.5MM, which even by Rays standards is something they an afford for a frontline arm.

Andy

  • Is Muncy an automatic to have his option picked up by the Dodgers?

Mark P

  • Yep

Jay

  • So Trey Day is pretty fun – wouldn’t you say?

Mark P

  • Just an unreal start.  A kid with all of 14 MLB innings to his name just dominates the Yankees to that extent…you can’t make this up.

Slick Ric

  • I think you are short changing how angry Pirates fans are.

Mark P

  • While there’s undoubtedly a lot of (deserved) frustration in Pittsburgh, there are unfortunately a lot of fanbases that are irate at their teams right now.

Kyle

  • Do the Red Sox go into 2026 with Casas penciled in at 1B or do they look for an external option?

Mark P

  • Casas will probably get one last chance for next year.  He might be a trade candidate this winter, except the Sox would be selling low since Casas barely played last year.

Ray

  • In addition to Tucker, who else isn’t with the Cubs next season, Alcantara, Ballesteros or Caissie, or more than 1 of the latter?

Mark P

  • As in, you’re assuming the Cubs make another big trade of a prospect (or two?) in exchange for a star veteran?  It’s a possibility, except with Happ/Seiya both just a year away from free agency now, the Cubs are going to be less keen on moving an outfield prospect

Bucco Fan

  • Which teams do you consider to be the best trade match for a Pirates team with SP depth?

Mark P

  • Mariners, Red Sox, Mets….basically any club that has a distinct need in the rotation, and has a prospect pool that is generally deeper in top bats than top arms.

    Cardinals or Cubs maybe fit here except they’re division rivals.  Dodgers technically fit except their best position-player prospects are a few years away, and the Pirates need help now.

  • We’re over two hours now, so it’s time to wrap this one up.  Thanks so much for all your questions, and more chatting should be taking place next weekend!
  • If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-10-05-25

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