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Angels, Anthony Rendon Discussing Contract Buyout With Rendon Expected To Retire

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The Angels and third baseman Anthony Rendon are discussing a buyout plan with Rendon expected to retire, reports Alden González of ESPN. Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM deal still has one year and $38MM remaining.

Rendon’s deal has been a punchline for a long time now and will certainly go down as one of the biggest busts of this era, or perhaps even of all time. The Angels have gotten almost no return on their massive investment. Rendon was still a very good player in the first year of the pact, but that happened to be the 202o season, which was shortened to just 60 games on account of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, Rendon has been largely injured. Even when he has been able to take the field, he hasn’t been terribly useful.

More to come.

Marlins, Eury Pérez Had Extension Discussions In The Spring

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The Marlins and right-hander Eury Pérez discussed an extension earlier this year, according to reporting from Will Sammon, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic. However, they didn’t come close to getting something done. These talks occurred when the team approached the righty’s representatives in the spring and the two sides were about $15MM apart, according to Isaac Azout of Fish on First. Both Azout and Christina De Nicola of MLB.com say that the talks are expected to continue this offseason.

It’s the second time this week that reports have emerged of the Marlins trying to extend one of their young players. Earlier this week, it was reported that they recently had some talks with outfielder Kyle Stowers. The Fish were even farther from a deal with Stowers, with a reported $50MM gap in those talks.

The situations have a few things in common but are also wildly different. Both players have between two and three years of service time, meaning each is a year from qualifying for arbitration and four years from free agency. However, they are far apart in age. Stowers is going into his age-28 season and therefore won’t be a free agent until he’s going into his age-32 campaign. Pérez is only 22 years old right now, turning 23 in April. He is therefore slated for the open market after his age-26 campaign.

That’s a reflection of his quick rise to the majors. Pérez shot through the minors and was in the big leagues by his age-20 season. Despite his youth, he was immediately successful. He tossed 91 1/3 innings that year with a 3.15 earned run average. His 8.3% walk rate was around average while he punched out a strong 28.9% of batters faced.

He missed the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Since the Marlins approached him about an extension in the spring, he was still recovering at that time and had fewer than 100 innings under his belt. He was able to get back on the mound in June and finished the year with 95 1/3 innings, a 4.25 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.

Pérez is still fairly inexperienced, with under 200 big league innings to his name so far. However, he was confident enough to turn down extension overtures a year ago while still on the mend. Now he’s a year closer to free agency and has returned to health.

It’s quite rare for a player to be on track to hit free agency so young. When it does happen, teams have shown a strong willingness to pay for that youth. Back in the 2018-19 offseason, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado reached free agency ahead of their age-26 seasons, with each hitting the $300MM plateau on their free agent deals. More recently, Juan Soto hit free agency at the same age and blew those two out of the water. His $765MM deal was more than Harper and Machado combined. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was also able to get a $325MM guarantee ahead of his age-25 season, despite having no MLB experience. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a $500MM extension with the Blue Jays just a few months before he was about to become a free ahead ahead of his age-27 campaign. Rafael Devers got to $313.5MM under similar circumstances to Guerrero, two years earlier.

For players in their early 20s, teams have made massive commitments to position players. Players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr. all got at least $210MM guarantees in their pre-arbitration years. The same can’t be said for pitchers. Spencer Strider currently holds the record for a pre-arb pitcher with his six-year, $75MM deal. Like all players, getting closer to free agency will increase his earning power. Arms such as Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Garrett Crochet, José Berríos, Jacob deGrom, Luis Castillo and Homer Bailey have signed nine-figure deals in their arb years. Dozens of guys have been able to crack nine figures after reaching the open market.

If Pérez bets on himself, he could keep increasing his earning power, but that would also run the risk of him getting hurt or simply struggling to put up good numbers. Since he’s so young, perhaps there’s a nice middle ground where he can bank some early earnings while still having a good path to free agency. For example, he could sign away two years of club control and still become a free agent ahead of his age-29 season.

For the Marlins, they had an encouraging finish in 2025. They were 23-33 at the end of May but went 56-50 the rest of the way and narrowly missed the playoffs. They have almost no money on the books. Sandy Alcantara is signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027. That’s literally it for now, though they have tendered contracts to seven arb-eligible players. Even though the Marlins don’t have huge payrolls, they have lots of room for long-term deals if they want to lock up a few core players.

That will also help them with their reported desire to increase their competitive balance tax number in 2026. The idea would be to pre-emptively stave off drama when the collective bargaining agreement expires next offseason. If the Marlins spend a bit more next year, it could reduce the chances that the MLB Players Association or other owners take umbrage with how the Fish are using their revenue sharing money.

The Athletics were in a similar position last winter and ended up getting more aggressive than in previous years. They gave notable free agent deals to Luis Severino and José Leclerc and signed extensions with Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler. Extensions are quite good for bumping up the CBT since that number calculates contracts based on the average annual value of the whole deal. For instance, Alcantara’s $56MM extension over five years gave him an $11.2MM CBT hit for every season of that deal, even though he was paid far less than that in the first three years. He made $3.5MM in 2022, followed by $6MM and $9MM in the two subsequent seasons.

Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images

Orioles To Hire Mike Shildt In Player Development Role

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The Orioles are hiring former Cardinals and Padres manager Mike Shildt as their new coordinator of instruction in the upper levels of the minor league system, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Samuel Vega, who had been the Orioles’ Latin American coordinator of instruction, will now be the organization’s coordinator of instruction in the lower levels of the system.

The 57-year-old Shildt surprisingly stepped down as Padres manager following the season, despite the fact that he had two years remaining on his contract. The decision was Shildt’s and did not come from the organization. In the wake of his decision, Shildt explained to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that the daily grind of managing a 162-game season (plus playoff appearances) had “taken a severe toll mentally, physically and emotionally.” Subsequent reporting painted a somewhat strained relationship between Shildt and some members of the organization.

Shildt has publicly voiced a desire to remain involved in baseball — ideally in a less-demanding player development role. He’ll land just such an opportunity in Baltimore under president of baseball operations Mike Elias, with whom he overlapped during the pair’s early days as scouts (and, in Shildt’s case, a minor league coach) in the Cardinals organization.

Shildt’s ties to the Orioles organization run far deeper than that early overlap with the team’s front office leader now, however. As MLB.com’s Anne Rogers wrote back in 2020, Shildt grew up around the O’s. His mother worked for the team’s Double-A affiliate and frequently brought her son to the park. He eventually became a bat boy, scoreboard attendant and clubhouse attendant in the organization.

A 12-year-old Shildt was helping out in the Double-A clubhouse at the same time a top Orioles prospect named Cal Ripken Jr. made his way to that level, and a couple decades later Shildt was in attendance when Ripken both tied and broke the major league record for consecutive games played. Readers are highly encouraged to check out Rogers’ piece in full for a fascinating, detailed breakdown of Shildt essentially growing up in the Orioles’ system.

In many ways, the new role is a homecoming for Shildt — a return to the organization where he helped out during his formative years and a return to his player development roots. Specifics regarding his duties and his schedule aren’t yet clear, but he’ll play a notable role in helping to finish off the development of the next wave of O’s stars as they progress toward big league readiness in Triple-A (and presumably in Double-A as well).

The Best Fits For Bo Bichette

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Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. Steve Adams examined which clubs should be in the running for #1 free agent Kyle Tucker earlier this week.

We now move to the consensus #2 hitter in the class, Bo Bichette. The two-time All-Star is coming off a .311/.357/.483 showing with 18 homers across 628 regular season plate appearances. A sprained left knee ended his regular season and cost him the first few rounds of the playoffs. Bichette made it back for the World Series. Despite clearly being limited and having gone a month without the benefit of live at-bats, he came back to hit .348 in the Fall Classic. His towering three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 would have gone down as one of the biggest moments in Toronto sports history if not for the Dodgers' ninth-inning comeback.

Bichette is one of the younger free agents in the class. He'll turn 28 a few weeks before Opening Day. He's a middle infielder who has been a well above-average hitter in all but one season of his career. The lone exception (2024) was a year in which he had three stints on the injured list. He has otherwise posted an OPS above .800 in every season and owns a lifetime .294/.337/.469 slash line. He has twice led the American League in hits and would have done so again this year if not for the knee injury.

The lingering question is how long Bichette can stick at shortstop. He's a below-average runner with middling arm strength who rates as one of the weakest defensive shortstops in MLB. The glove was an issue even before the knee sprain, which could increase some teams' concerns about his lateral quickness even if it's expected to heal without surgery.

The Blue Jays used him at second base in the World Series to limit his defensive workload. Most or all 30 clubs would project him as a second baseman by the end of a long-term deal. There are some for whom he'd only fit as a second baseman already. Bichette hasn't tipped his hand publicly about whether he'd be open to a position change, but that'd create more opportunities that would drum up interest.

Bichette rejected a qualifying offer. A signing team would give up draft compensation and/or international signing bonus space to add him. That's not much of a factor for a free agent of this caliber. MLBTR predicted Bichette to command an eight-year, $208MM contract -- joining Tucker as the only players for whom we're predicting $200MM+ this winter.

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Phillies, Blue Jays Among Teams To Inquire On Ketel Marte’s Availability

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Ketel Marte’s name continues to pop up on the offseason rumor mill as teams check in with the D-backs on the star second baseman. Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen has already plainly indicated that a trade is “unlikely,” and reports out of Arizona generally suggest that the Snakes are loath to part with Marte but will at least hear interested parties out as a matter of due diligence. About one-quarter of the league had already inquired as of two weeks ago.

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, playing up the chances of a trade in a recent on-air segment, noted that the Phillies and Blue Jays are among the teams that have contacted the D-backs about Marte. That clearly doesn’t indicate anything is close, nor does it suggest that Marte specifically is a top target for either party. Nevertheless, it’s of modest note that they’ve at least gauged Marte’s availability and perhaps put out some feelers on the potential cost of acquisition.

The Phillies are largely set in the infield, with Bryce Harper at first base, Bryson Stott at second base, Trea Turner at shortstop and Alec Bohm at third base (though Bohm is once again an offseason trade candidate himself). Marte has plenty of experience in the outfield, which is a more prominent area of need for the Phils, but he graded poorly as a center fielder over 1292 innings there earlier in his career (-11 Defensive Runs Saved, -7 Outs Above Average).

It’s a stretch to think that Marte, whose average sprint speed has fallen to the 29th percentile of big leaguers, could handle a move back to center field ahead of his age-32 season. The Phils have little set in place in the outfield aside from Brandon Marsh, though, so perhaps they’d consider plugging Marte into left field. Right fielder Nick Castellanos is widely expected to be traded or released this winter.

The focus in adding Marte wouldn’t be on his glove anyhow, but rather on his bat. The switch-hitting, multi-time All-Star is perennially excellent at the dish, evidenced by a .279/.360/.498 batting line (133 wRC+) dating back to 2021. Marte has been particularly dominant in the batter’s box over the past two seasons, slashing a combined .288/.374/.549 with 64 home runs in 1139 plate appearances.

The fit with the Jays is even more interesting, due to their expected run at retaining franchise icon Bo Bichette. Toronto already moved Andres Gimenez to Bichette’s shortstop position during the playoffs, when Bichette was originally sidelined with a sprained PCL. Even when Bichette returned in the World Series, he did so as a second baseman. Gimenez is a vastly superior shortstop defender, so if the Jays do plan to re-sign Bichette, they could well do so with a permanent switch to second base in mind.

Marte is four years older than Bichette, but he’d also be markedly more affordable. He’s signed through 2031 for a total of $102.5MM, though the final season on his contract is an $11.5MM player option. Marte would be 37 for that 2031 season.

It bears emphasizing that the Jays doing a bit of groundwork on a potential second base alternative — one who may not even be truly “available” in trade talks, save for an overwhelming offer — in no way suggests a shift in priorities. Toronto brass has voiced a desire to keep Bichette, and the resources to do so would’ve been present even without a deep World Series run further filling the team’s coffers.

If the D-backs were to move Marte, the goal would surely be to acquire controllable, MLB-ready young pitching to plug into the rotation. That’s not exactly a core area of strength for either Philadelphia or Toronto.

The Phils, of course, have top prospect Andrew Painter on the cusp of MLB readiness, but they’ve been staunchly against trading him in any deal over the past few seasons, even while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Righty Moises Chace, another touted righty in the system, underwent Tommy John surgery last June. Mick Abel was traded to the Twins in July’s Jhoan Duran deal.

In Toronto, there’s even less high-end pitching near the majors. Trey Yesavage obviously isn’t going anywhere. Ricky Tiedemann missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Like the Phils, the Jays traded one of their next-best young arms, Kendry Rojas, to Minnesota as part of a win-now push at the deadline (netting Louis Varland). Another, Khal Stephen, went to the Guardians in the Shane Bieber trade.

There’s at least some modest intrigue in the fact that a pair of World Series hopefuls of this magnitude has looked into Marte, but to this point there’s little in the way of smoke suggesting a trade is actually plausible. Even if the D-backs become more serious about trading Marte, the Phillies and Jays would face steep competition in bidding to acquire him — presumably from contending clubs with more controllable pitching to spare. For now, it’s worth revisiting what Hazen said when prompted on Marte earlier in the month, telling the Burns & Gambo Show on 98.7 FM:

“It’s what happens. Everyone checks in on your better players. They’re coming after your better players. … [Marte is] one of our best players. We have some of the top position players in all of baseball on our roster and we need those players to be good next year.”

Hazen doubled down when asked on 98.7’s Wolf & Luke Show:

“Ketel is one of, if not our best player. He’s a superstar in this league. You win with superstars in this league. Yes, I do know it’s a team game and putting a team together to win baseball games is also equally important. That’s on us to figure out what the right mix of players is.”

KBO’s Kia Tigers Re-Sign James Naile

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The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced this week that they’ve re-signed righty James Naile to a one-year deal. The Sports One client will be guaranteed $1.8MM with an additional $200K available via incentives.

It’s one of the more lucrative one-year deals we’ve seen for a foreign player re-upping in the KBO, though it’s not hard to see why. The 32-year-old Naile (33 in February) has spent the past two seasons pitching for Kia in the KBO, working to a combined 2.38 ERA across 53 starts — a total of 313 2/3 innings. He’s fanned 22.2% of his opponents and only yielded a walk to 5.8% of the batters he’s faced — all with a ground-ball rate around 56%. Despite the hitter-friendly nature of the KBO, he’s surrendered only 17 home runs in his 313 2/3 frames (0.49 HR/9). Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency points out that Naile is the only qualified starter in the KBO with a sub-3.00 ERA across the past two seasons.

A former 20th-round pick by the Athletics, Naile appeared in parts of two major league seasons — both with the Cardinals. From 2022-23, he pitched a tiny sample of 24 1/3 MLB innings, during which he was tagged for 20 runs (7.40 ERA) on 35 hits and 11 walks with 12 punchouts. Though Naile never got much of a look in the majors, he’s a veteran of six Triple-A seasons. He pitched to a 4.15 ERA across 357 2/3 innings in that time and logged a 17.6% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in that time.

Naile is now up to $3.95MM in guaranteed earnings since signing overseas. He’s cleared $4MM when you factor in incentives on his prior contracts and could end up around $4.5MM in total over his first three seasons in the KBO with another strong performance in 2026. Readers curious about the lifestyle of an American player overseas may be interested in Naile’s 2024 vlog about his experience in Gwangju, where he and then-teammate Cam Alldred (a former Pirates farmhand who very briefly saw the majors in Pittsburgh) took some fans through their daily routine.

There’s certainly a chance that Naile could eventually look to return to North American ball, but he’ll be entering his age-34 campaign next offseason and has never been an especially hard thrower, sitting 91.7 mph with his sinker in his brief MLB looks. Both traits could give MLB clubs some pause. Regardless of whether Naile pursues a big league return, he ought to have plenty of opportunity to continue being paid handsomely to pitch in the top leagues in Asia for the next few seasons.

Tommy Pham Aiming To Play Several More Years

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Free agent outfielder Tommy Pham struggled early in 2025 with the Pirates before a torrid stretch over the season’s final few months. He’ll turn 38 next March, but Pham is fully intent on playing in 2026 and appears to be eyeing multiple more seasons in his big league career. The well-traveled outfielder tells Katie Woo, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that he hopes to cross both the 200-homer and 200-steal threshold before retiring. He’s currently 51 homers and 69 steals away from reaching those lofty goals.

Notably, Pham tells The Athletic that he has played through plantar fasciitis dating back to late in the 2023 season. That, Pham contends, has hindered him on the basepaths. He’s swiped just 12 bags total over the past two seasons but stole 22 times in 2023. He’s gone through stem cell treatment to address his plantar fasciitis and now feels confident he can get back to being more of a threat on the bases.

Overall, Pham’s 2025 season in Pittsburgh was pedestrian. He finished out the year with a tepid .245/.330/.370 batting line — about six percent worse than league-average offense, by measure of wRC+. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as a strong left fielder (+5), while Statcast’s Outs Above Average was more bearish and had him slightly worse than average (-2) in 925 innings.

It bears mentioning, however, that Pham’s modest batting line includes a middling stretch of two-plus months to begin the year. Over the final three months of the 2025 campaign, Pham came to the plate 273 times and turned in a hefty .278/.363/.468 slash (128 wRC+) with 10 home runs, 13 doubles, a triple, an 11.7% walk rate and just a 17% strikeout rate. He averaged 92.7 mph off the bat and turned in a huge 51.8% hard-hit rate in that time. Any team would love to have that type of output in its outfield mix.

If Pham can continue anywhere close to that pace, he’ll have a chance to get to the 200-homer threshold with another three seasons in the majors. Reaching 200 steals feels like a loftier goal, but Pham quipped that he’s “seeing all these guys that can’t run like me steal 30 and 40 bases now” and feels that with better health in his feet he can get back to running at higher levels. Both Josh Naylor and Juan Soto topped 30 steals in 2025 despite ranking in the second and 13th percentile of average sprint speed among big leaguers, per Statcast. Pham was in the 45th percentile even with his plantar fasciitis issues; back in 2023, he sat in the 61st percentile.

Working in Pham’s favor is that it’s a thin market for teams seeking outfield help in free agency this winter — particularly from the right side of the plate. Harrison Bader, Miguel Andujar and Austin Hays are all coming off productive seasons. There are a couple of notable rebound candidates in Lane Thomas and Adolis Garcia, the latter of whom was non-tendered by the Rangers last week. But most of the market’s top outfield options this offseason swing from the left side of the dish, and even in that regard, the supply of established veterans coming off healthy, productive seasons is limited. Clubs like the Guardians, Twins, Reds, Brewers, Marlins, A’s and Rockies all have fairly left-handed outfield groups and could look to balance things out with a righty, speculatively speaking.

There’s also one oddball record at least loosely in play for Pham, who in 2025 suited up for the tenth team of his major league career. He’s still four teams shy of the record 14 that’s jointly held by Rich Hill and Edwin Jackson, but Pham has added five teams to his list in the past three seasons alone. That’s probably not a consideration for the veteran corner bat, but those 200 milestones clearly are. “I don’t have an All-Star appearance or anything like that,” Pham tells The Athletic. “But getting to that number, I could look back at my career, and me, personally, I can be proud of myself.”

MLBTR Podcast: Some “Classic Baseball Trades,” Nimmo For Semien, And Ward For Rodriguez

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Offseason Preview Megapod: Top 50 Free Agents – listen here
  • Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta – listen here
  • Offseason Preview Megapod: Top Trade Candidates – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

The Opener: Cardinals, Red Sox, Pre-Thanksgiving Deals

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Cardinals’ rebuild in full swing:

The first shot of St. Louis’s rebuild was fired yesterday when the club traded right-hander Sonny Gray (and $20MM cash) to the Red Sox for right-hander Richard Fitts, left-hander Brandon Clarke, and a player to be named later or cash. The return restocks the club’s pitching coffers, which the Cardinals haven’t been shy about making a goal of this winter. There’s plenty of additional work for the club to do even with half of Gray’s money off the books, however. The team still hopes to trade Nolan Arenado, and a host of young left-handed bats (led by Brendan Donovan) are known to be available as well. Less clear is the status of Willson Contreras, who would certainly be a logical trade candidate but has indicated a preference to stay in St. Louis.

2. What’s next for the Red Sox?

Entering the offseason, the Red Sox made it clear that a top priority for the club was to add a front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Garrett Crochet and slot in ahead of Brayan Bello. They arguably did that with the Gray trade, as the veteran was a second-place Cy Young finisher as recently as 2023 in Minnesota. However, Gray hasn’t pitched at that same level in 2024-25, so it’s debatable whether he truly accomplishes this goal. Regardless, it seems that Boston will be turning its attention to bolstering the offense for the time being. That could come in a lot of different forms. Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and even Kyle Schwarber have been frequently linked to the Red Sox this offseason, and there’s been some reporting that they’re looking at J.T. Realmuto as well. Outside of free agency, the club has yet to trade from its glut of left-handed outfield talent, and Boston also has plenty of MLB-ready pitching to dangle (and even fewer innings for those young arms after adding Gray).

3. Will more pre-Thanksgiving deals shake loose?

While deals on Thanksgiving itself are somewhat rare, the days leading up to the holiday often create a bit of a rush of activity as players and teams look to push some deals across the finish line prior to holiday festivities. We’ve already seen some major trades between yesterday’s Gray deal and the weekend’s swap of Brandon Nimmo and Marcus Semien. Phil Maton and Jake Fraley have both wrapped up free-agent deals within the past couple days, with the former headed to the Cubs and the latter signing back with Tampa Bay just days after being non-tendered.

Last year, we saw both Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi sign within 48 hours of Thanksgiving (as you can see using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). The year prior, each of Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Reynaldo Lopez closed free agent deals in in the days leading up to the holiday. In 2022, the Hunter Renfroe trade between the Angels and Brewers came together the day prior to Thanksgiving. Another deal or two on either the trade or free agent market could come to fruition before tomorrow.

Cardinals Trade Sonny Gray To Red Sox

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The rebuild is underway in St. Louis. The Cardinals and Red Sox announced a trade sending right-hander Sonny Gray and cash considerations to Boston in exchange for righty Richard Fitts, left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Clarke and a player to be named later or cash. The Cardinals are reportedly including $20MM to help offset Gray’s salary.

Gray, who turned 36 earlier this month, opted not to waive his full no-trade clause last offseason when the Cardinals laid out their plan to take a step back and focus on player development rather than their typical win-now mantra. Following the team’s playoff miss in 2025, however, Gray publicly acknowledged that he would “definitely” consider trade scenarios as the Cardinals lean even further into a multi-year rebuilding effort. “I signed here two years ago with the expectation of winning and trying to win, and that hasn’t played out that way,” he said in September. “I want to win.”

He’ll get that opportunity to win in Boston, joining a Red Sox rotation headlined by Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet and an offense anchored by budding superstar Roman Anthony. Boston secured a Wild Card berth in the American League this past season, and though they fell to the Yankees two games to one in that series, they’re a clear win-now club with postseason aspirations. The same cannot be said for the Cardinals.

Gray was heading into the final guaranteed season of a three-year, $75MM contract originally signed in St. Louis, when he was coming off his own Cy Young runner-up performance with the 2023 Twins. It was a heavily backloaded contract, paying the right-hander $35MM in 2026 plus a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option for the 2027 season. The contract stipulated that even if the option was picked up, Gray could opt out and head back into free agency.

That deal has been slightly restructured. The new arrangement pays Gray $31MM in 2026 and includes a $10MM buyout on a $30MM mutual option for 2027. The amended deal reinforces the fact that Gray is a one-year rental — it’s been more than a decade since a mutual option was exercised by both parties in MLB — but it also comes with some perks for him.

Gray is now guaranteed an extra million dollars — likely a kicker for him to waive his no-trade protection — and he’ll now receive the full buyout on his 2027 option. Under the previous contract, if the Red Sox had picked up Gray’s option, he’d have forfeited the $5MM buyout by opting back into free agency. Now, he’ll receive a fully guaranteed $41MM for one year.

Because the Cardinals are kicking in $20MM, only $21MM of Gray’s $41MM guarantee will count against the Red Sox’ luxury tax total. Gray has already received a qualifying offer in the past (from the Twins in ’23), so he won’t be eligible to receive one from the Red Sox at season’s end.

Gray tossed 180 2/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball in 2025 and had a more encouraging 26.7% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate. Metrics like SIERA (3.29) and FIP (3.39) feel he was far better than his earned run average.

By today’s standards, Gray is a workhorse. With the exception of the shortened 2020 season (when he made 11 of 12 possible starts), the former first-round pick has started at least 24 games every year since 2019, averaging 29 starts per 162-game season in that time. Gray hasn’t gotten back to the level of performance he displayed in that second-place Cy Young finish with Minnesota, but he posted a 4.07 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 43.2% grounder rate in 347 innings across his two seasons in St. Louis.

Gray will join Crochet and Brayan Bello in the top three spots of manager Alex Cora’s rotation. The remaining two places will be sorted out either later this offseason or next spring. Rotation candidates include veteran Patrick Sandoval (who signed a two-year deal last offseason while rehabbing Tommy John surgery), righty Kutter Crawford (who didn’t pitch in ’25 owing to oblique and wrist injuries, the latter requiring surgery), Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison, Hunter Dobbins and Luis Perales.

The Sox have several other starting pitchers on their 40-man roster, including a few just-added names (David Sandlin, Tyler Uberstine, Shane Drohan) ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline. It’s a deep crop of arms that positions Boston well, both in terms of navigating inevitable injuries next year and in exploring the trade market for further roster upgrades.

Of course, the Red Sox don’t have to exclusively shop on the trade market for upgrades. Including Gray’s $21MM, the Sox are now projected for about $176.75MM in 2026 payroll, per RosterResource. That’s more than $30MM shy of last year’s spending, and it’s certainly feasible that ownership would push the envelope even further. Boston has trotted out Opening Day payrolls as high as $236MM in the past. The addition of Gray leaves them about $21MM shy of the first tier of luxury tax penalization. The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in two of the past four seasons, including 2025. Simply put, there’s ample room for additional spending.

For the Cardinals, the trade trims $20MM off the books and brings in a pair of promising arms. Fitts is big league ready and could step right into the St. Louis rotation. The 25-year-old (26 next month) made 11 appearances for the Red Sox in 2025, including 10 starts. He was tagged for a 5.00 ERA in that time due to an extreme susceptibility to home runs (11 homers, or 2.20 HR/9). However, Fitts posted a respectable 20.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate in the majors, and he was solid in the minors as well (3.60 ERA, 21.3 K%, 8.7 BB% in 30 innings).

Originally a sixth-round pick by the Yankees back in 2021, Fitts landed in Boston by way of the 2023 Alex Verdugo trade. (Though new Cardinals president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom formerly ran the front office in Boston, he’d already been replaced by Craig Breslow by the time of that trade, so there’s no prior connection between Fitts and Bloom.) Fitts ranked 11th among Red Sox farmhands in 2024 and 12th in 2025, per Baseball America, whose scouting report pegged him as a back-of-the-rotation starter or multi-inning reliever.

Fitts averaged a hearty 95.9 mph on his four-seamer in 2025 and complemented the pitch with a slider, curveball and newly implemented sinker. BA’s scouting report on the righty noted that he struggles to miss bats within the zone, and the numbers have thus far borne that out. Fitts missed bats off the plate with his sweeper/slider, but opponents made contact on 87.5% of his pitches within the strike zone — a couple percentage points higher than the 85.4% league average. The addition of that sinker/two-seamer looks to have helped Fitts bolster his ground-ball rate, as it enjoyed a nice bump both in Triple-A and the majors, now sitting at 43.6% — just north of the 41.8% league average.

Whether Fitts settles in as a fourth starter or moves into a bullpen role, he should pitch plenty of innings in St. Louis this season. He’s controllable for a full six seasons, as he finished the year eight days shy of one full year of major league service. Fitts also still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, which only gives the Cardinals more flexibility with him in the years ahead.

Clarke, 22, was Boston’s fifth-round pick in 2024. He sat fourth among Red Sox prospects (and 86th in the game overall) on the midseason rankings from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen. Clarke ranked fifth among Red Sox prosects on MLB.com’s midseason rankings. He was not included in Boston’s top 10 on yesterday’s latest prospect rankings from Baseball America.

Though he was drafted in ’24, Clarke didn’t make his pro debut until ’25. He split this past season between the Red Sox’ Low-A and High-A affiliates, working to a combined 4.03 ERA in 38 innings (14 starts). Clarke sits 97 mph with his heater and draws praise for a plus-plus (70-grade) slider. He currently lacks an average third pitch, however, and his command is clearly a work in progress. That velocity and slider combo blew hitters away in the low minors (34.5% strikeout rate), but Clarke also walked a whopping 15.5% of his opponents — including an 18.1% walk rate in High-A against more advanced hitters.

Listed at 6’4″ and 220 pounds, Clarke has a starter’s build and two potent weapons in his arsenal. The new Bloom-led Cardinals will be tasked with refining Clarke’s command and perhaps incorporating a third pitch to help him more capably combat right-handers, who drew a walk in nearly 18% of their plate appearances against Clarke. If Clarke can’t find a third pitch or hone his command any further, it’s easy to imagine that fastball/slider combo playing up in a late-inning relief role.

Overall, it’s a nice return for the Cardinals, who secure an MLB-ready arm and a high-risk but high-upside prospect — all while trimming $20MM off the books. Today’s trade only further cements that the Cardinals are shifting their focus to the future. Further trades are sure to follow, with Brendan Donovan, JoJo Romero, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar among the possibilities.

As for the Red Sox, they’ll pay a relatively steep price (both in terms of dollars and talent) to add a durable veteran starter with plus rate stats and a nice postseason résumé (3.26 ERA in 30 1/3 innings). Gray clearly makes them better, and the Boston front office seems comfortable paying a higher short-term price to maintain some long-term flexibility. Whether they pursue further upgrades in the rotation or now turn their attention to the infield corners, the bullpen or their oft-discussed outfield logjam, the Red Sox have payroll space and a nice stock of young pitching to give them plenty of options in further augmenting their 2026 roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Gray was being traded to Boston. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cardinals’ return. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported specifics surrounding the slight restructuring of Gray’s contract. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reported the specific amount of cash Boston was receiving from St. Louis.

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