Free Agent Power Rankings: The Next Five
MLBTR published our updated iteration of the Free Agent Power Rankings on Monday. That includes full breakdowns of our top 10 in the class. Darragh McDonald and Steve Adams also devoted much of this week's podcast to breaking down the process and debates about the back half of that list.
It's certainly the weakest class in recent memory. That's most acute at the top behind Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta. There might not be a third nine-figure player in the class. While that makes it a less exciting group overall, it also leaves the middle tiers more muddled. Some players in the 11-20 range right now could jump into the top five. Others who were arguably near the top of the class a couple months ago (e.g. Bo Bichette, Trevor Rogers) have dropped even more quickly.
As we did after our first version in April, we'll run through the next five players who weren't far off the list. They're ordered here alphabetically, but it also works out that the first name is the player who was our consensus #11.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays
Gausman will land among the top 10 in the class in terms of average annual value. There's an argument that he's the second-best player for 2027 alone behind Skubal. His numbers over the past three-plus seasons are at least quite comparable to Peralta's. The only hangup is age.
The two-time All-Star will play all of next season at 36. Max Scherzer is the only free agent starter 36 or older to sign for three years since 2017; Scherzer's $130MM deal with the Mets started at age 37. Nathan Eovaldi was entering his age-35 season when he re-signed with Texas for three years and $75MM. Merrill Kelly signed for two years and $40MM last offseason at 37.
Gausman hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. He carries a 3.60 ERA across 80 innings. He's averaging just under six innings per start and has managed a quality start in half of his outings. He has above-average strikeout and whiff rates while very rarely issuing free passes. He's no longer a Cy Young candidate like Scherzer and Justin Verlander were in their late 30s, but he's probably a tier above Kelly and Chris Bassitt.
The veteran righty should be in the $25-30MM range on an annual basis, which would put him in the Eovaldi bucket. If he gets to three years, he'll very likely wind up with one of the 10 largest contracts in the class. That'd be tough to accomplish on a two-year deal, even in a thin group. Gausman is ineligible for a qualifying offer after receiving one from the Giants in 2020, so he won't be attached to draft compensation.
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Kyle Isbel Diagnosed With Grade 3 Plantar Fascia Tear
The Royals placed center fielder Kyle Isbel on the 10-day injured list last night due to plantar fasciitis. Manager Matt Quatraro announced at the time that Isbel was undergoing an MRI to determine the severity of the issue. That imaging came back with unfavorable results, it seems. The Royals announced this morning that Isbel has a Grade 3 tear of a portion of the plantar fascia in his left foot. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that the team isn’t putting a formal timetable on his return but that it’ll be quite some time before he’s even able to resume baseball activity — let alone embark on a rehab assignment or return to the big league roster.
There’s better news on righty Seth Lugo, who exited last night’s game after taking a 106 mph comebacker to the head. Lugo rather incredibly quickly rose back to his feet, assuring distraught former Mets teammate Brandon Nimmo (who hit the ball in question) that he thought he was OK. Per the Royals, a CT scan was clean. Lugo will continue to be monitored, but for the time being, it seems he’s thankfully avoided any kind of significant injury.
Isbel, 29, has handled the vast majority of the Royals’ center field work this season. He’s long graded as a plus defender on the grass, though his grades in 2026 have dipped a bit. That’s not entirely surprising, given the full context of his season; Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star writes that Isbel has been playing through considerable pain in his left foot for quite some time. He finally reached a point where he couldn’t continue. Even with that ailing foot, Isbel drew a positive grade from Statcast’s Outs Above Average (4) and was only slightly below average in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (-2).
At the plate, Isbel has hit at his typical levels. He entered the season with a well below-average .235/.288/.365 batting line in his career (78 wRC+) and has turned in a .244/.298/.354 slash (80 wRC+) that closely mirrors his career marks.
With Isbel sidelined indefinitely, the Royals will piece together the center field mix via in-house options for the time being. Missouri native and Mizzou product Kameron Misner was recalled from Triple-A and is getting the start today. Lane Thomas has also logged some time in center this season and got the start in Isbel’s place last night. Utilityman Tyler Tolbert has four innings in center this season but logged 100 frames there last year. He probably won’t draw many starts in center but could slot in if he’s used as a pinch-runner (as was the case last night) or if the Royals make other defensive/lineup shuffles midgame during Isbel’s absence.
The veteran Thomas signed a one-year deal with Kansas City over the winter. He’s not hitting for any power whatsoever in 2026 but is sporting a career-best 15.8% walk rate in 152 plate appearances. He’s slashing .234/.362/.315 overall and, as is so often the case, has been a menace to left-handed opponents (.262/.395/.361). There’s a natural platoon to be formed between the righty-swinging Thomas and lefty-swinging Misner. Though Misner has batted just .203/.260/.325 in 231 MLB plate appearances with the Rays (and one with Kansas City last night), the former first-rounder has bludgeoned Triple-A pitching at a .276/.373/.547 pace in 252 plate appearances this year. He belted 13 homers and swiped 11 bags with the Storm Chasers prior to yesterday’s recall to the majors.
Red Sox CEO: No Consideration Of Moving On From Breslow
Last night’s loss to the Rays was the Red Sox’ fourth straight, dropping them to 27-39 — last in the American League East, second-worst in the American League as a whole, and fourth-worst in all of MLB. The Sox are one of the most disappointing teams in the game this year, if not the most, but that doesn’t seem to have given ownership any second thoughts about its baseball operations leadership. Just a couple days after Tim Healey of the Boston Globe reported that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow‘s job was secure, Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy removed any remaining shred of doubt by publicly confirming as much. Asked on WEEI’s Greg Hill show about Breslow’s status, Kennedy told the hosts that a change “is not even on the table” (as relayed by MassLive’s Christopher Smith).
Breslow, 46 in August, is in his third season as Boston’s chief baseball officer. The team never disclosed the precise length of his first contract as the team’s baseball operations head, nor has it been reported. There have been no indications that the 2026 season is the last on Breslow’s contract. Presumably, his deal runs through at least the 2027 season.
The Red Sox, of course, have already begun to show some signs of frustration. Manager Alex Cora and five members of his coaching staff were fired in late April after a 10-17 start. Triple-A manager Chad Tracy replaced him for the remainder of the season but is holding the title of “interim” manager. The Sox are 17-22 since the change — a nominal improvement but still well shy of expectations for a team that won 89 games last year and spent $130MM to sign Ranger Suarez this offseason while also acquiring Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Caleb Durbin and several others via trade.
Though the season is on the verge of spiraling past them, it seems the Sox aren’t bringing about any further sweeping changes in the organization — at least for now. They’ve reportedly been on the hunt for a right-handed bat on the trade market, though deals of any real magnitude are rare this time of year. Boston famously bucked that trend with last year’s mid-June blockbuster sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco, but it’s typically hard to find clubs willing to part with notable veteran talent at this juncture. That’s particularly true with a slightly later (Aug. 3) trade deadline this year.
The extent to which the Red Sox are able to climb out of this rut could well determine whether Breslow carries on following the season. Generally speaking, it’s common for teams to first make a change in the dugout and then, if the tide still doesn’t turn, look to the front office for further reshaping. For now, Kennedy’s comments signal that Breslow isn’t on the hot seat. That topic will probably be revisited in the offseason, but there are more than three months of games to influence his status in the meantime.
Tigers To Activate Tarik Skubal On Saturday; Casey Mize Likely To Return On Sunday
The Tigers’ rotation is getting a massive boost this weekend. Manager A.J. Hinch announced to the team’s beat this morning that two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will return to start Saturday’s game versus the Guardians in Cleveland (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Sunday could bring about another big return, as Hinch added that right-hander Casey Mize is likely to return Sunday, though he needs to complete one more bullpen session today before the team finalizes that decision.
That Skubal is set to return this quickly is remarkable. The Tigers announced in early May that their ace would require an arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow. That procedure took place not even five full weeks ago. Skubal has already made one rehab start, pitching five shutout frames with only two hits allowed and six strikeouts for Detroit’s High-A affiliate.
Skubal underwent an experimental new procedure — a “NanoNeedle” scope that figures to grow in popularity following Skubal’s incredibly swift return to a big league mound. (The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen detailed the manner in which the NanoNeedle differs from a traditional elbow scope back in mid-May, for those who are interested.) Blake Snell underwent the same procedure about a week and a half after Skubal and is on a similarly fast track; he started a throwing program last week, not even three weeks out from his procedure (via MLB.com’s Sonja Chen).
Prior to landing on the injured list, Skubal looked well on his way to a third straight Cy Young-caliber season. While he faces some steep competition this year — Yankees righty Cam Schlittler and White Sox righty Davis Martin have broken out with dominant performances — Skubal was sitting on a terrific 2.70 ERA with a strong 27.1% strikeout rate and a 3.6% walk rate that would be a career-best mark were he to sustain it. Metrics like FIP (2.11) and SIERA (2.88) support Skubal’s continued dominance.
While Skubal will draw the most headlines — understandably so — Mize’s return is also a major development. The former No. 1 overall pick had a career year in 2025 when he took the ball 28 times and turned in a 3.87 ERA with a career-best K-BB% (16.7) over 149 frames. He’s been even better this season, sprinting out of the gate with a 2.27 ERA in 47 2/3 innings over nine starts. Mize’s 26.5% strikeout rate and 12.8% swinging-strike rate are both career-highs by a wide margin. His 6.5% walk rate is an exact match for his career mark entering the season. Mize has largely moved away from his curveball and sinker to focus more heavily on a four-seamer/splitter/slider repertoire — and done so to great effect thus far.
If Mize indeed returns, he’d push rookie Troy Melton back to Monday, per Jason Beck of MLB.com. Melton has been far too good in his four starts with the big league club to consider removing from the rotation or sending to Triple-A Toledo. He’s pitched 25 2/3 innings with a 2.81 earned run average. That includes seven innings of one-run ball against the White Sox in Chicago and eight innings of two-run ball against the Rays in St. Petersburg. Melton’s 13.7% strikeout rate raises some skepticism about his ability to sustain this pace, but he’s fanned nearly 20% of his opponents over his past two starts — far closer to the 22% league average.
A six-man rotation for the Tigers looks like a logical step for the starting staff, Hinch noted. Skubal and Mize would join Melton, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Keider Montero in that scenario. The Tigers will face a decision when Justin Verlander returns from a hip injury later this month. Montero has pitched well in 12 starts. Flaherty has had a tough season but has improved over the past five weeks — and over his past three starts in particular. Valdez has a pedestrian 4.40 ERA overall, but a disproportionate amount of the damage against him has come in two meltdown starts earlier this season; he allowed 15 earned runs over eight innings between those two appearances but has a 2.97 ERA in his other 12 starts.
For an injury-ravaged Tigers club, tough decisions of that nature are good problems to have. Detroit’s season looked to be on the brink not long ago, but they’ve rattled off six wins in their past eight games. The Tigers are still a shocking 12 games under .500, but the lackluster competition in the American League leaves them only five and a half games back of a Wild Card spot. Detroit has a lot of work to do if there’s any hope of climbing back toward the top of the division, but the Tigers play three games in Cleveland this weekend and host the White Sox for three next week (with a series against a disappointing Astros club between those two); there’s a real opportunity for them to close some ground in the coming days, right as two key arms are ready to rejoin the fray.
The Opener: Giants, Callihan, Scherzer
Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. hit just his second home run of the season on Wednesday, but he made it count. Tatis belted a hanging slider from Chase Petty over the left-field wall to walk off the Reds.
1. Giants cap comeback with walk-off grand slam
The Giants seemed to be heading toward getting swept by the Nationals through seven innings on Wednesday. San Francisco entered the bottom of the eighth inning trailing 9-1. The Giants then put together a five-run inning with the help of solo homers from Rafael Devers and Matt Chapman. Washington scored once in the ninth inning to extend the lead back to four runs. The first three batters reached base against reliever Gus Varland in the bottom of the ninth inning, cutting the deficit to three. Jung Hoo Lee singled to load the bases, setting the stage for Bryce Eldridge. The rookie yanked a 2-0 slider from Mitchell Parker into the right field seats to finish the wild comeback.
2. Callihan gets on the board
Pirates outfielder Tyler Callihan joined the big-league club at the end of May. He’s played sparsely since being promoted, but put together a huge game against the Dodgers yesterday. Callihan took Shohei Ohtani deep in the fourth inning for the first homer of his career. He then erased a two-run deficit in the eighth inning with a three-run shot off Kyle Hurt. Pittsburgh entered the seventh inning down five runs, but scored eight times in their final two trips to the plate.
3. Scherzer climbs the strikeout list
Blue Jays righty Max Scherzer made his return to the mound on Wednesday against the Phillies. The veteran had been sidelined since late April with forearm and ankle injuries. Scherzer wasn’t at his best against Philadelphia, allowing five earned runs over 3 1/3 innings. He did pick up four strikeouts, bringing him to 3,503 for his career. Scherzer is the 11th pitcher to reach 3,500 punchouts. He needs just seven strikeouts to move past Walter Johnson and into the top 10 on the all-time leaderboard.
Photo courtesy of Kelley L Cox, Imagn Images
MLB Mailbag: Devers, Nationals, DFA Carousels, Guardians, Red Sox
I'm pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag! In this edition, we'll get into Rafael Devers' contract and trade value (or lack thereof), the Nationals' unexpectedly strong performance and how it could shape their deadline, the revolving door for "41st men" on 40-man rosters (e.g. Atlanta's Carlos Carrasco), the Guardians' deadline needs, the Red Sox' search for a right-handed bat and more.
Onto the questions...
Peter asks...
With Rafael Devers hitting again (and his defense at first base very good) how would you rate his value on the open market taking into account his remaining contract? What level of return would you expect the Giants might get for him and what teams do you think would be most interested in him? Would the Giants have to pay down any of his remaining contract?
Devers is indeed hitting better after an awful start to the season. Following a disastrous .207/.248/.289 slash and 31% strikeout rate through the end of April (129 plate appearances), he's rebounded with a .257/.321/.500 line over his 165 most recent trips to the plate. It's an encouraging turnaround, but there are some red flags worth mentioning.
First and foremost, that 31% strikeout rate that dogged Devers through his dreadful early slump hasn't abated. Over this stretch of 165 plate appearances, he's fanned at a 30.9% clip -- effectively the exact same rate. The biggest differences have been a modest bump in power (six homers in this stretch) and a huge spike in Devers' batting average on balls in play. His BABIP in that slump was a roughly league-average .288. During this turnaround, he's at .344.
That doesn't all come down to luck. Devers' exit velocity has jumped from an average of 89.8 mph during that cold snap to a huge 93.4 mph in his hot streak. His hard-hit rate has soared from a solid 41.5% to an elite 55.6%. Devers is making better contact, so it only stands to reason that more of his balls in play should be landing for hits.
Be that as it may, however, Devers still isn't walking much. His contact rate on pitches within the strike zone, even during his recent surge, is 75% -- well shy of the league-average 85.9%. And while Devers has been good during this span, he hasn't been his peak self. By measure of wRC+, Devers has been about 27% better than average since early May. That's very good, but it's not close to his best output. Back in 2021-22, for instance, Devers crushed 65 homers in 297 games and did so with rate stats that placed him about 36% better than average: .287/.355/.530. His strikeout rate over those two years was 20.1%. His contact rate on balls in the zone was still below average but was five percentage points higher than during this recent revival.
All of that is to say, Devers has been performing like an above-average but flawed hitter since the beginning of May. That's a nice development after he looked lost to begin the season -- and after he dealt with a disk injury in his lower back last summer -- but does it restore any semblance of trade value? I don't believe so.
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MLBTR Podcast: A Free Agent Power Rankings Update And The Yankees Without Aaron Judge
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The June update to MLBTR’s 2026-27 Free Agent Power Rankings (1:45)
- Brandon Lowe’s free agency (7:10)
- Casey Mize (13:55)
- Luis Arraez (18:30)
- Adrián Morejón (30:25)
- Ian Happ versus Kevin Gausman for the final spot (39:20)
- The Yankees losing Aaron Judge to the injured list for several weeks (52:10)
Check out our past episodes!
- The CBA Standoff Begins – listen here
- Gage Jump, Tigers Trade Speculation, And The Twins’ Roster Shuffle – listen here
- Colt Emerson Debuts, Blue Jays’ Rotation Issues, And What To Make Of The Mets And Astros – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
Dodgers To Place Will Smith On Injured List
The Dodgers will place Will Smith on the 10-day injured list tomorrow, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register). They’ll select Chuckie Robinson onto the active roster to back up Dalton Rushing. L.A. opened the necessary 40-man roster spot by releasing Tyler Fitzgerald this afternoon.
Smith has been nursing a stiff neck for the past few days. He hasn’t played since Friday. The Dodgers can backdate his IL placement for up to three days, so he’ll be down until at least next Wednesday. Roberts downplayed the level of concern.
It has been a relatively slow start to the season for Smith. He’s hitting .249/.338/.382 with six home runs in 201 plate appearances. His plate discipline and batted ball metrics are mostly in line with those of previous seasons, so the Dodgers surely aren’t worried. Smith remains on the short list of the best catchers in the sport even if the slight dip may keep him from a fourth straight All-Star appearance.
Rushing, who is hitting .275/.352/.532 on the season, would be the #1 catcher on most other teams. He’s more than capable of holding the primary job for what should be a short-term absence. Rushing has started four straight around Monday’s off day. The Dodgers don’t have another day off until next Thursday, so they needed to get a healthy catcher up at some point.
That’ll fall to the 31-year-old Robinson, an organizational depth type. He played one game for the Dodgers last September and has had brief MLB stints with the Reds and White Sox. The Dodgers re-signed him on a minor league deal over the offseason and have kept him at Triple-A Oklahoma City. Robinson missed the first month of the season but has come back with a solid .274/.338/.466 start over 20 games. He’s a career .131/.169/.192 hitter at the big league level.
Rockies Outright Keegan Thompson
The Rockies sent righty Keegan Thompson outright to Triple-A Albuquerque, per the MLB.com transaction log. Colorado designated him for assignment yesterday when they needed a 40-man roster spot for outfield prospect Cole Carrigg. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so they evidently began that on Monday’s off day before formally announcing the DFA.
It’s the second time this year the Rox have gotten Thompson through waivers. He was designated for assignment at the end of Spring Training after failing to break camp. Thompson is out of options and can’t be sent down without going through waivers. The Rox selected him back onto the roster when Victor Vodnik went on the injured list in late May.
Thompson only got into five games over his three weeks on the MLB roster. He worked in mop-up relief and allowed 11 runs through 12 innings. Thompson had a solid enough 11:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he allowed 19 hits and tossed three wild pitches. That was his first MLB work in two seasons. Thompson spent last year in Triple-A in the Cubs’ system.
The 31-year-old will likely return to Albuquerque. He has the right to elect free agency but would forfeit his split contract if he does so. Thompson is making $350K while in the minors and is paid at a prorated $1.3MM rate for any time on the big league roster. He presumably won’t walk away from that to pursue a minor league contract elsewhere. He has worked 32 1/3 innings in a swing role for the Isotopes, pitching to a 3.34 ERA despite a subpar 13.6% strikeout rate.
Astros Sign Trenton Brooks To Minor League Deal
The Astros signed outfielder Trenton Brooks to a minor league contract. Although the team never formally announced the move, Brooks is tonight’s lineup for their Triple-A affiliate in Sugar Land.
It’s another flier on a left-handed hitting outfielder for the Astros. They added LaMonte Wade Jr. on a big league deal last week, but he almost immediately went on the injured list with a hamstring strain. That moved Joey Loperfido back to the big league level. CJ Alexander and Zach Cole are on the Triple-A roster as lefty-hitting outfielders.
Brooks, 30, is back in affiliated ball after beginning this season in Korea. He signed with the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes on a $700K contract. Brooks didn’t perform as the team hoped, batting .217/.286/.259 over 41 games. KBO teams have a roster limit on foreign-born players, so they’re quick to move on from those who struggle. The Heroes waived him in mid-May to sign Keston Hiura.
A former 17th-round pick, Brooks has played 37 games at the major league level. He debuted with the Giants in 2024 and got some run with the Padres last year. Brooks has hit .136 with one home run and 19 strikeouts in 72 trips. As one would imagine, he has a much better track record against minor league arms. Brooks is a lifetime .279/.382/.472 slash line with nearly equal walk and strikeout rates in nearly 2000 career Triple-A plate appearances.