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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals hoped the 2025 season would represent a step forward in their rebuild, but the opposite took place. The results were discouraging enough that ownership fired not only manager Davey Martinez but longtime president/general manager Mike Rizzo, who'd run the team's baseball operations for nearly two decades. A new front office regime will try to turn things around for a club that won more games in 2024 (71) than in 2025 (66).

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Financial Commitments

Total 2026 commitments: $49MM
Total long-term commitments: $79MM through 2030

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

Non-tender candidates: Alfaro, Garcia, Thompson, Adams

Free Agents

The Nationals' summer ousting of Rizzo kicked off an executive search while longtime Rizzo lieutenant Mike DeBartolo ran baseball operations through the trade deadline and the end of the season. Washington spoke with executives from multiple clubs and ultimately settled on Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Toboni to head up the organization. Because he was in the running to be promoted to Red Sox general manager under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, Toboni was hired with the title president of baseball operations. The Nats could hire a GM to work underneath him at some point, but it wasn't framed as an immediate priority at Toboni's introductory press conference.

Changes in the front office have already begun. The Nats will retain DeBartolo in a yet-to-be-announced role, but assistant GMs Eddie Longosz and Mark Scialabba are set to depart the organization amid further changes in the scouting department. Even if Toboni doesn't immediately add a general manager, it seems likely that he'll bring on some new hires to take over some of the AGM and scouting responsibilities (particularly if DeBartolo is moved to a role other than assistant general manager).

The Nats will also need to hire a new skipper. Interim manager Miguel Cairo is a candidate in the team's ongoing search, Toboni indicated this week, but the Nationals are also in the process of interviewing candidates from outside the organization. Washington is one of an incredible seven teams looking for a new manager and one of an even more remarkable nine clubs that will have a different manager on Opening Day 2026 than on Opening Day 2025.

Of course, beyond the broader changes at the highest levels of the organization, fans are more concerned with what the offseason will look like under the new regime. Toboni naturally didn't delve into specifics at his introduction. He spoke in general terms, repeatedly mentioning the desire to build a "scouting and player development monster" that eventually stands as the envy of the industry.

Even more pressing, however, is what the future holds for some of the organization's key young players. While emerging outfielders like James Wood and Daylen Lile are controlled for another five-plus seasons, many of the team's other most important contributors are already halfway -- or more -- through their original level of club control. That'll put Toboni in an interesting spot this winter as he looks to determine whether some of his core players are building blocks or whether they're best used as trade currency to further stock a farm system that, even after picking No. 1 overall in July and trading several players at the 2025 deadline, ranked 21st in the majors at Baseball America and 23rd at MLB.com.

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Angels, Albert Pujols Discussing Managerial Deal

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6:22pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that the Angels have not yet made Pujols an official offer, though he confirms that the interview went well.

6:00pm: It seems the Angels have made up their mind about their next manager, though he still has to agree. According to a report from Sam Blum and Katie Woo of The Athletic, the job is going to go to Albert Pujols as long as he wants it. Per the report, Pujols met with general manager Perry Minasian last night and the meeting went well. Discussions on a deal are in the works but there’s not yet an agreement in place.

It was reported just over a week ago that Pujols would interview for the job and would be a frontrunner. That was just a few days after it was reported that neither Ron Washington nor Ray Montgomery would be back in the job. Washington opened the 2025 season as the skipper but was away for most of the year due to quadruple bypass surgery, with Montgomery covering for him on an interim basis. Torii Hunter has also been reported as a candidate but today’s reporting indicates that Hunter would only be a real consideration if things fall through with Pujols.

Per Blum and Woo, the Angels hope to make an official announcement before the World Series, though there are still some contractual things to work out. The report suggests that Pujols’s personal services contract could be a factor.

The ten-year, $240MM contract he signed with the Angels in 2011 included a ten-year, $10MM personal services contract for after his retirement as a player. He finished his playing career after the 2022 season. He had been released by the Angels and then spent some time with the Dodgers and Cardinals. In February of 2023, he rejoined the Angels as a special assistant to honor that personal services pact. Since he’s only three seasons into that deal, there are seven years left. It’s not clear how the existing contract would impact whatever is being negotiated for him to take the skipper job.

Pujols has previously expressed an interest in becoming a manager but has no experience in affiliated ball, either as a manager or as a coach. He managed Leones del Escogido, a Dominican winter ball team, last offseason. The Leones won the Serie Final over Tigres del Licey in seven games. Pujols is slated to manage the Dominican Republic national team in the upcoming World Baseball Classic but would presumably have to bow out of that gig if he signs with the Angels.

Assuming the sides are able to cross the T’s and dot the I’s, then Pujols will be in the Angels dugout yet again. It feels like a fait accompli at this point, as Blum and Woo report that the coaching staff negotiations are also already in motion. The report notes that former big leaguer Ramón Martínez, brother of Pedro Martínez, is Pujols’s top choice for pitching coach. Barry Enright has been the Halos’ pitching coach for the past two years but it’s fairly common for new managers to make some coaching changes.

The Halos haven’t had a winning season since 2015. Mike Scioscia had a long run as the club’s skipper, from 2000 to 2018. Since then, as the club has struggled, there has been a lot more turnover. Brad Ausmus, Joe Maddon, Phil Nevin, Washington and Montgomery have been at the helm in recent years. It seems Pujols will likely be the next guy to get a chance to turn the ship around.

Photo courtesy of Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images

2025-26 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is back, as we break down what all 30 teams could have in store for their roster machinations this winter.  Going forward, the Outlook series is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, and that link provides details on how to sign up for an annual membership.

This post will be updated as more Outlooks are published.

AL West

  • Houston Astros
  • Los Angeles Angels
  • The Athletics
  • Seattle Mariners
  • Texas Rangers

AL Central

AL East

  • Baltimore Orioles
  • Boston Red Sox
  • New York Yankees
  • Tampa Bay Rays
  • Toronto Blue Jays

NL West

  • Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Colorado Rockies
  • Los Angeles Dodgers
  • San Diego Padres
  • San Francisco Giants

NL Central

NL East

Poll: Will Ha-Seong Kim Opt Out?

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It wasn’t long ago that infielder Ha-Seong Kim looked like a strong bet to land a nine-figure deal in free agency. Last September, Kim was wrapping up a season in which he had hit .233/.330/.370, good for a league average wRC+ of 101. He combined that with strong defense at shortstop and 22 steals on the base paths, and it was actually the weakest of his last three seasons in the majors. Since the start of 2022, Kim had hit .250/.336/.385 with 72 steals, a 17.9% strikeout rate, and a walk rate of 11.0% with 13.0 bWAR and 10.5 fWAR accumulated.

A player who was consistently worth three to five wins per season entering his age-29 season looked like a slam dunk for a sizable deal, but that was derailed when he underwent shoulder surgery 364 days ago. He wound up signing a $29MM guarantee with the Rays that spanned the 2025 and ’26 seasons, though it gave him the opportunity to opt out of the final year and $16MM of that deal if he so chose. Kim’s campaign this year was not an especially robust one, as he appeared in just 48 games and hit .234/.304/.345 in 191 plate appearances. The Rays were concerned enough about the possibility of having Kim on payroll in 2026 that they exposed him to waivers last month, at which point he was claimed by the Braves.

On paper, that might make the decision to opt in and try to bounce back next year an easy one for Kim. It’s hard to say that a 191 plate appearance sample size where he posted an 82 wRC+ with middling defensive grades would improve his stock in free agency much, after all. With that being said, it may not be an entirely foregone conclusion. Kim did manage to look much more like his former self down the stretch with Atlanta, hitting .253/.316/.368 (91 wRC+) with a 16.3% strikeout rate and some of the strongest expected numbers of his career. His overall production remained below average due in part to a BABIP of just .271, but it suddenly became much easier to see Kim returning to the average to slightly above average bat he once was after his performance in the Braves organization.

Of course, that time in Atlanta represents just 98 plate appearances, which makes it difficult to draw any significant conclusions. The Braves themselves certainly appear satisfied with Kim’s progress, though, as president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has made no bones about his desire to keep the infielder in the fold for next season. With a relatively barren market for shortstop-caliber players outside of Bo Bichette, it’s not hard to imagine other teams seeing Kim’s upside and being willing to spend a good bit more than the $16MM guarantee Kim would be opting out of, even if that would come in the form of a similarly short-term, opt-out laden arrangement as the one he signed last winter.

There’s certainly risk in opting out of a guaranteed $16MM payday coming off an injury-marred season, and it would be entirely understandable if Kim preferred to simply stick with the Braves and hope to bounce back enough in 2026 that he puts himself in line for a lucrative contract next winter. With that being said, it must be considered that Kim is represented by the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras is known for preferring his clients to test free agency when possible. That’s not a hard-and-fast rule, however; Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Gerrit Cole both had the opportunity to test free agency via opt outs last winter and ultimately declined to do so, though Cole did initially opt out before mutually agreeing with the Yankees to remain in the organization on the terms of his original contract.

How do MLBTR readers expect Kim to handle his impending option? Will he test free agency and try to take advantage of a weak shortstop class, or is he more likely to stick with Atlanta on his current deal? Have your say in the poll below:

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon everyone, hope you're well! Looking forward to another of these, let's get going

NY Reds

  • Would Benge Or Jett Williams be enough to get Lodolo? Mets must be in on Zach Littel right?

Anthony Franco

  • I think Benge would at least get their attention. Doubt the Reds would be super keen on moving Lodolo for a prospect but unless they're way down on him because he had a bad few weeks in Triple-A, Benge seems like the kind of talent who'd get their attention. Not as convinced on Williams, whose offensive ceiling seems lower
  • Littell for the Mets? Sure. He's kind of boring though, that'd need to be their second of two rotation acquisitions

RJ

  • Do the Angels bring back Moncada to play 3rd next season? Or do they look elsewhere?

Anthony Franco

  • Moncada has to be like Plan F. If he's the only option available in February for $5M again, sure. They'll probably make a run at Geno, could trade for Alec Bohm or wait and see if the Phils non-tender him

Glenn inSeattle

  • How are the Mariners going to fill their openings at 1st and 3rd?

Anthony Franco

  • I buy that they're going to try to keep Naylor. If he ends up at four years in the low-mid 70s, I could see them doing that. If it gets to five years and closer to $100M, not so much. I'd probably put them on a Ryan O'Hearn type fallback at that point
  • Not sure they need to as big at third. Emerson's not far off, Williamson can handle the position defensively if nothing else. If they bring Polanco back to rotate between 2B/3B/DH and still have Bliss and Young in the mix at second, I feel like that's enough to at least bide their time to see if Emerson can take the job in the second half

Dan S.

  • When will the MLBTR Top 50 come out? One of my favorite bookmarks every off-season.

Anthony Franco

  • Five days after the end of the World Series
  • That's the cutoff point for teams/players to make option decisions and teams to decide whether to issue qualifying offers. There aren't many guys who'll make the Top 50 if the team declines a club option (Imanaga this year would be the main candidate) but player option/QO decisions have a big impact on the market, so we wait until those are in
  • Also planning to do a top offseason trade candidates list (probably not 50 but at least 20-30) that we expect to drop the morning after the World Series ends

Baseball been very, very good to me.

  • Who do you think matches up better with the Dodgers in a seven game series, Cubs or Brewers and why? Who do you think will win tomorrow nights game 5, assuming the starters are Imanaga and Misirowski? Obviously, the starters are sppeculative and both would be on super sjhort leashes.

Hope

  • Any teams that have a good shot of beating the Dodgers? I am so worried by how they are ruining baseball. They are gonna go back to back

Anthony Franco

  • I'll still take Milwaukee but predicting any single MLB postseason game is 55-45 at best
  • I do think the Brewers have a better shot at beating the Dodgers. I'd consider L.A. the favorite over either of them but it's not like they're unbeatable with that bullpen
  • Sasaki being a lights out reliever has been huge so far. Their actual relievers aside from Vesia are pretty bad

Cat_Herder

  • You're Toronto.  Would you rather Detroit or Seattle win tonight?

Anthony Franco

  • Detroit. I think Seattle's a deeper overall team and the Jays wouldn't see Skubal until Game 3
  • Non-zero chance that they'd only have to face him once in the series, especially if they take the first two at home

Stockholm, AZ

  • Hey Anthony! I know pitching is top priority, but who will play the outfield for the Diamondbacks next year? Hard to believe they won’t at least try to trade McCarthy or Thomas. And who will be on the infield corners? Lawlar has looked lost so far.

Anthony Franco

  • Yeah I'm coming increasingly around on the idea that they'll dangle Lawlar for pitching. Another team that'd probably need to be in on Bohm or Josh Jung if they do that. Blaze Alexander's a utility guy
  • Agree that they also need to add an outfielder, though I think it'll probably be a lower-cost platoon type given the expected payroll rollback and their pitching needs
  • Carroll, Thomas and an Austin Hays type. Hope for Lourdes to make it back around the All-Star Break and/or that Ryan Waldschmidt hits his way to the majors quickly

Duffy S Cliff

  • What are potential landing spots for Munetaka Murakami? Could my Red Sox go after him? What do you think his ceiling is in MLB?

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Munetaka Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason

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Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is going to be posted by the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It has long been expected that this would be the case, as it was reported three years ago that the plan was for Murakami to make the MLB move after 2025, but this report confirms that Murakami will be a key free agent to watch this winter.

The timing of the posting is not a coincidence. Under major league baseball’s international free agency rules, a player is considered an “amateur” if he is under the age of 25. These “amateur” players are subject to the international bonus pool system, wherein teams are hard-capped by annual budgets of roughly $4MM to $9MM. This was the case when Roki Sasaki was posted prior to his age-23 season. He eventually signed with the Dodgers and received a $6.5MM signing bonus, far less than he would have received with more open bidding. He is also treated like a minor leaguer, in that he will be making around the league minimum until he qualifies for arbitration and will be under club control until he accrues six years of big league service time.

Murakami won’t be in the same situation as Sasaki. He turned 25 in February will therefore be considered a professional under the current rules. Once he is officially posted, he will be free to negotiate with all 30 clubs for a period of 45 days and will have no restrictions on the kinds of offers he can receive. This situation is more analogous to that of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who also signed with the Dodgers. His 12-year, $325MM deal was in a far different stratosphere compared to Sasaki.

Sasaki was eager enough to come to Major League Baseball that he came young, despite the clearly lesser earning power with that path. Murakami has understandably waited until after his 25th birthday and should be in line for a nice payday.

What remains to be seen is exactly how strong his market will be. In his NPB career, he has shown massive power potential but also real strikeout concerns. He has generally been good for 30 to 40 homers per year, though he had a massive 56-homer season in 2022. This year, he missed a large chunk of the season due to an oblique injury and only got into 56 games, but he managed to launch 22 balls over the fence in that small sample.

He was also punched out 64 times in 224 plate appearances this year, a rate of 28.6%. He had that down to 20.6% during his amazing 2022 season but he’s been above 28% for three straight years now. Overall, he has hit .270/.394/.557 in his NPB career. Since MLB pitching features greater velocity and generally higher quality than NPB pitching, it’s possible his strikeout rate would increase with the move. For reference, the MLB average was 22.2% this year and there were only nine qualified hitters above 28%.

Murakami has primarily been a third baseman during his time with the Swallows. He has also dabbled at first base and even got a brief look in left field this year. Scouting reports have generally pegged him as a middling fielder who will likely end up at first base in the long run.

That will put more pressure on his bat but some clubs may be more comfortable with him playing third base for a few years. Teams will also have varying opinions about how he will be able to adapt to MLB pitching.

For players coming over from Japan, there have been all sorts of different results. As mentioned, Yamamoto had so much strong interest that he was able to secure a 12-year pact with opt-outs. Shota Imanaga got a creative four-year guarantee with a multi-year club option and player option structure after two seasons. Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida got straight five-year deals worth $85MM and $90MM respectively. Both of those hitters had better NPB batting averages than Murakami but without the same power ceiling.

Since the Dodgers have landed many Japanese stars, many fans expect that to be the outcome here. However, it’s not a perfect roster fit. The Dodgers have Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani in the designated hitter spot. They have an affordable $10MM club option to keep Max Muncy around as their third baseman next year. Signing Murakami can’t be totally ruled out but it may require them to move on from Muncy, who has been a cornerstone of the club for years and is still putting up good numbers, or perhaps try Murakami as an outfielder. Even if Muncy’s option is picked up, he’s slated for free agency after 2026, with Freeman only signed through 2027, so the long-term fit is better than in the short term.

The Red Sox would be a cleaner fit now, since Alex Bregman is likely to opt out of his deal and the club has questions at first base. The Mets have first base open with Pete Alonso set to opt out and they don’t have a clear answer at third base either. The Yankees could put him at first base, with Paul Goldschmidt becoming a free agent and Ben Rice capable of catching. The Cubs have Matt Shaw at third but almost signed Bregman last winter, so perhaps they are still willing to go after an external option there. The Tigers currently have Zach McKinstry at third but he’s capable of playing elsewhere. The Angels don’t have a long-term third base solution due to the ongoing injuries of Anthony Rendon. The Mariners are about to lose Eugenio Suárez to free agency. The Reds don’t have a definite answer at first base.

Over time, his market will become more clear. Whichever club signs him will also owe a posting fee to the Swallows. The posting fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending above $50MM.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

MLB Disciplines Jose Iglesias, Xander Bogaerts

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Major League Baseball has announced that infielder Jose Iglesias has received a one-game suspension and an undisclosed fine for his conduct towards umpires after Game Three of the Wild Card series against the Cubs last week. It does not say if Iglesias will appeal. If the suspension is either uncontested or upheld, Iglesias would serve the suspension next season. Fellow Padres infielder Xander Bogaerts has also received a fine for the same incident.

Bogaerts and the Padres were obviously upset by a strike call that was made as the club’s season was on the line. The best-of-three series was tied one game apiece and the Padres were trailing 3-0 going into the ninth inning. Jackson Merrill led off with a home run off Brad Keller to pull the Padres within two. Then Bogaerts worked a 3-2 count and took a pitch down and outside, as seen in this video from MLB.com. Had it been called ball four, Bogaerts would have drawn a walk, bringing the tying run to the plate for the Friars. Instead, home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn called it strike three.

The on-screen strike zone from the broadcast certainly made the pitch look like a ball. Some other pitch-tracking sources, such as Statcast, made it look like it clipped the bottom of the zone. Regardless, Bogaerts and the Padres certainly felt it was a ball. The Friars then got a couple of men on base via hit-by-pitches but fell 3-1, ending their season. Later, fan footage emerged of the umpires being berated as they left the field through the away dugout steps, per @padsfanatic.

With the Padres having been eliminated, Iglesias can’t serve his suspension now. He is an impending free agent. MLB’s announcement notes that, pending an appeal, he will serve his suspension “on his first day as an active player on a Major League roster during the 2026 regular season.”

It’s possible that becomes somewhat notable as Opening Day nears. Iglesias, 36 in January, has been a minor league deal guy for a while now. He’s had to settle for a minors pact in three straight winters. He didn’t get called up in 2023. Last year, he returned to the big leagues and had a phenomenal run with the Mets, hitting .337/.381/.448. Despite that excellent season, he still had to settle for a minor league deal with the Padres coming into 2025.

With the Friars this year, he wasn’t nearly as effective, finishing with a .229/.298/.294 line. He will likely be receiving minor league offers again this winter. If he is in the running for a job come March or at any point next year, the signing club would have to be willing to select his contract and play short-handed on Opening Day or whatever day they give him a 40-man spot.

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

Orioles’ Albert Suarez Expected To Avoid Surgery

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Orioles righty Albert Suarez’s season ended with an elbow injury, and the 36-year-old underwent an MRI earlier this week to determine whether there was any structural damage that would necessitate surgery. The team announced to its beat that Suarez has been diagnosed with a “mild” strain of the flexor tendon in his right forearm (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). The expectation is that he’ll be cleared to begin a throwing program within the next several weeks.

It’s a sigh of relief for both Orioles and Suarez, who seems like he’ll avoid surgery barring any notable setbacks once he begins that throwing progression. A shoulder strain limited him to just 11 2/3 innings this season, but Suarez was an out-of-the-blue key contributor for the 2024 Orioles, tossing 133 2/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA between the rotation and bullpen. That marked his first big league action since 2017; Suarez spent the 2019-23 seasons pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and in the Korea Baseball Organization — throwing quite well in each league.

Suarez’s success overseas piqued the Orioles’ interest enough to bring him aboard as a minor league signee at age 34 in the 2023-24 offseason. He’s since given the team a total of 145 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA, 19.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. The Orioles figure to be on the hunt for ways to bolster a rotation that right now includes Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer at the very least. Righty Tyler Wells looked sharp in four late starts this season after returning from Tommy John surgery. Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is in the mix, too, though he didn’t pitch in 2025 after undergoing an elbow debridement procedure. Right-hander Brandon Young and former top prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott could factor into the rotation as well.

The top trio of Bradish (who, like Wells, returned from Tommy John surgery this season), the steadily reliable Kremer and the revitalized Rogers makes for a solid top three. Between Wells, Rodriguez, Povich, McDermott, Young and Suarez, the O’s have some decent depth, but most of that group has had some recent health concerns and/or struggles in the majors.

Suarez is the only one of that bunch who doesn’t have minor league options remaining, however, making him a strong favorite to open the 2026 season in a swing capacity — health permitting. Baltimore controls him for another three seasons, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $900K salary for the right-hander.

Baltimore is expected to be active in both the free agent and trade markets this offseason. President of baseball operations Mike Elias told MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald in last week’s podcast appearance that the Orioles “don’t want to take that off the table, by any means” when asked about his club’s willingness to invest multiple years in a free agent starting pitcher.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds made the postseason in a 162-game schedule for the first time in 12 years. They looked overmatched against the Dodgers and were swept out of the Wild Card Series. This year was a nice stepping stone, but the Reds need to add a couple bats to pull alongside the true best teams in the National League.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $41MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: $36MM through 2029 (including buyout of '30 club option)
  • Jose Trevino, C: $11.25MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 club option)

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • Team, OF Austin Hays hold $12MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
  • Team holds $6.5MM option on RHP Scott Barlow ($1MM buyout)
  • Team holds $3MM option on LHP Brent Suter ($250K buyout)

2026 financial commitments: $37.5MM
Total future commitments: $105.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Lux, Espinal, Gibaut, Moll, Benson

Free Agents

The Reds ranked 14th in MLB with 4.42 runs per game. That's an underwhelming mark for a team that plays in one of the league's most favorable hitter's parks. They'll need to improve upon a .245/.315/.391 batting line. The offense should be the offseason priority, but their first couple decisions are in the bullpen.

Cincinnati holds options on relievers Scott Barlow and Brent Suter. It's an easy call to move on from Barlow, who'll receive a $1MM buyout. They'll probably also opt for a $250K buyout on Suter, as the Cincinnati native struggled to a 7.36 ERA after the All-Star Break. Closer Emilio Pagán hits the market following one of the best seasons of his career. Nick Martinez will again be a free agent after playing this year on a $21.05MM qualifying offer salary.

If Pagán walks, the Reds could be in the market for a closer. They're not going to spend at the level it'd take to bring in Edwin Díaz, nor does a splash for Robert Suarez seem advisable given their needs on offense. Old friend Raisel Iglesias will be available on a one or two-year deal at age 36, though he pitched well enough with Atlanta to command an eight-figure salary. Kenley Jansen will sign a decent one-year deal, while Ryan Helsley and Michael Kopech are probably looking for pillow contracts. Devin Williams, Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, Kyle Finnegan and Pagán himself should all be looking at multi-year contracts -- though it'd be a surprise if Pagán commands more than two guaranteed years entering his age-35 season.

Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips are Cincy's top returning leverage arms. Santillan has a little bit of closing experience, while Phillips has shown wipeout stuff with hit-or-miss command. If the Reds find the prices too high on free agent closers, perhaps they'll let Santillan and Phillips compete for the ninth inning while pursuing a setup type like Tyler Rogers or Phil Maton. In any case, they should bring in at least one back-end arm.

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The Opener: ALDS, NLDS, Phillies

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. ALDS to conclude:

The ALDS will wrap up tonight as the Tigers and Mariners head back to Seattle for a decisive Game 5. The game is scheduled for 5:08pm local time and will see the Tigers send ace Tarik Skubal (2.21 ERA) to the mound opposite righty George Kirby (4.21 ERA). Skubal is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and likely to win it again this season after another dominant campaign. That excellence has extended into the postseason, as he’s posted a 1.84 ERA with an eye-popping 41.8% strikeout rate in two starts so far.

Elite as Skubal has been, he’s not completely unbeatable. The Mariners themselves managed put together a win in Game 2 of the ALDS when Skubal threw seven innings of two-run ball thanks to a slip by the Tigers bullpen. Kirby, meanwhile, surrendered two runs in five innings while striking out eight when he faced Detroit in Game 1 of this series. The winner of tonight’s game will go on to face the Blue Jays in ALCS, which kicks off Sunday. Toronto would have home field advantage over either club for the series.

2. NLDS wrapping up in Milwaukee:

Though the Brewers jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the NLDS, the Cubs battled back and won two straight elimination games at Wrigley Field to take the series back to Milwaukee. The decisive Game 5 is scheduled for Saturday at 7:08pm local time. Neither team has announced their starter, though the Cubs would have southpaw Shota Imanaga (3.73 ERA) on regular rest while the Brewers figure to have both Jacob Misiorowski (4.36 ERA) and Quinn Priester (3.32 ERA) available for what’s sure to be an all-hands-on-deck game for both teams. The winner of the series will head into the NLCS, where they’ll face the Dodgers with Game 1 scheduled for Monday. The Brewers would hold home field advantage in the NLCS if they advance, while the Dodgers would have it over the Cubs.

3. Phillies head into the offseason:

The Phillies’ season ended last night on a heartbreaking walk-off error by Orion Kerkering, and with the end of the season comes the start of the club’s offseason. It would be a surprise to see the Phillies move on from the generally successful partnership of Rob Thomson and Dave Dombrowski, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t some real potential for change this winter. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Ranger Suarez are all ticketed for free agency. Reuniting with or replacing those players, and Schwarber in particular, figures to be the main storyline of Philadelphia’s offseason. Between Suarez’s free agency, Zack Wheeler’s thoracic outlet surgery and Aaron Nola’s 2025 struggles, the Philadelphia rotation is facing some uncharacteristic uncertainty this winter, too. Like most clubs, the Phillies should be expected to hold an end-of-season presser at some point in the coming days that could provide hints to their offseason plans.

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