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MLBTR Podcast: Offseason Preview Megapod: Top Trade Candidates

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images

Reds Decline Options On Brent Suter, Scott Barlow, Austin Hays

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The Reds announced that they have turned down three contract options. Outfielder Austin Hays had a $12MM mutual option on his deal but the club has declined that in favor of giving him a $1MM buyout. Right-hander Scott Barlow receives a $1MM buyout instead of a $6.5MM club option. Left-hander Brent Suter gets a $250K buyout instead of a $3MM club option. All three players are now free agents.

None of the three decisions is a shock, though there did seem to be a chance of Suter being brought back. His earned run average jumped up to 4.52 this year and he’s now 36 years old but the price isn’t egregious. He also has a strong clubhouse reputation and local ties as a guy who played high school ball in Cincinnati.

It seems that wasn’t enough for the Reds to overlook the numbers. As mentioned, his age and ERA both crept up this year. He is still doing a good job limiting hard contact, so he should still be in line for a gig somewhere. Perhaps the Reds will circle back to him and try to bring him back at a lower price point.

Barlow, 33 in December, signed with the Reds last offseason. The one-year deal came with a $2.5MM guarantee in the form of a $1.5MM salary plus the aforementioned option buyout. His 4.21 ERA this year was fairly close to last year’s 4.25 but with concerning trends under the hood. His strikeout rate dropped from 28.2% last year to 24.8% this year, his walk rate climbed from 12.9% to 14.9% and his grounder rate dropped from 47.1% to 42.9%.

Though the ERA held fairly steady, given the direction of the other numbers, it’s understandable that the Reds didn’t want to give him a relatively hefty raise. The Reds aren’t a big spender and will have about the same payroll next year, so they are keeping some powder dry for now.

As for Hays, his option always seemed destined to be bought out. It’s been over a decade since a mutual option was triggered by both sides. They are usually added to contracts as a way for the team to delay paying part of the guarantee. The Reds signed Hays last winter to a one-year, $5MM deal, with a $4MM salary and then the $1MM buyout on the $12MM mutual option.

He had a decent season, slashing .266/.315/.453 for a 105 wRC+, but that wasn’t going to be enough for the Reds to double his salary. He’ll head out to the open market to look for his next opportunity. That will likely come from a club in need of help against southpaws. Hays swings right-handed and has been better against lefty pitchers in his career. That includes a .319/.400/.549 line and 155 wRC+ in 2025.

Photo courtesy of Aaron Doster, Imagn Images

Krall: Reds’ 2026 Payroll Will Be “Around The Same” As 2025 Levels

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The Reds enter the offseason likely to seek bullpen help and multiple upgrades within the lineup, but they won’t have an especially lofty budget for achieving those goals. President of baseball operations Nick Krall said Tuesday that 2026’s budget “will be around the same as our payroll from 2025” (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic).

Cincinnati opened the 2025 season with a roughly $112MM payroll and finished around $116MM, per Cot’s Contracts. RosterResource pegs their end-of-season number a bit higher, at about $119MM.

Regardless, running back the same payroll gives the Reds a bit of spending power but not all that much. They’re currently projected for a payroll around $91MM, per RosterResource. That’s before option decisions on relievers Scott Barlow and Brent Suter. Barlow’s $6.5MM option seems likely to be bought out. Suter is a bit more of a borderline call at $3MM but could still be cut loose (or re-signed to a restructured deal with lighter immediate payroll implications, as was the case for the Cincinnati native this time last year).

The 2025 Reds nabbed the final NL Wild Card spot and saw an attendance increase of about 147,000 over their 2024 levels. However, the 2025 payroll was up about $20MM over the prior season, so much of the increased attendance revenue was offset by a more expensive on-field product. Reds ownership has never trotted out an Opening Day payroll north of roughly $127MM — though their prorated $55.5MM Opening Day payroll in 2020 indicates they’d have set a new franchise-high were it not for that year’s shortened schedule.

Cincinnati currently has just three players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season. Ace Hunter Greene will earn $8MM, while third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is owed $7MM and catcher Jose Trevino is owed $5.25MM. Assuming the options on Barlow, Suter and outfielder Austin Hays (a $12MM mutual option) are bought out, their only other financial commitments will be in arbitration. The Reds already outrighted infielder Santiago Espinal and reliever Ian Gibaut, sparing themselves a projected $4.6MM in salary between the two of them.

The Reds still have 12 arbitration-eligible players even after that pair of outrights (effectively non-tenders), but the only players projected to earn more than $5MM are right-hander Brady Singer ($11.9MM) and catcher Tyler Stephenson ($6.4MM). Any of Gavin Lux ($5MM), Sam Moll ($1.2MM) or Will Benson ($1.7MM) could be non-tendered or traded to buy a little extra breathing room. Speculatively, the pitching-rich Reds could swap out Singer for a comparably priced veteran bat to plug into their outfield (e.g. Taylor Ward).

Krall has downplayed the possibility of trading a starter, but the quintet of Greene, Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and top prospect Chase Burns is strong as it is, and well-regarded young arms like Chase Petty and Rhett Lowder loom as rotation possibilities as well.

Adding to the bullpen also figures to be on Krall’s to-do list. Closer Emilio Pagan is a free agent. Holdovers Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips all showed well in 2025 (Phillips in a fairly small 25-inning sample), while young flamethrowers Luis Mey and Zach Maxwell provide some upside. Still, there’s not much end-of-the-game certainty among the group, making a few reasonably priced bullpen pickups seem likely.

Depending on further non-tenders and some potential trades, it seems the Reds probably have room for one big-ticket item. A major bat like Pete Alonso or Cincinnati native Kyle Schwarber would be highly out of character, but there’s probably enough payroll flexibility to make that type of splash if the other moves are minimally priced. The likelier outcome would be a handful of more measured, mid-range additions to the roster, likely with a bit of wiggle room left for in-season maneuverings like we saw with this summer’s acquisitions of Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar.

Reds Sign Keegan Thompson

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The Reds announced that they have signed Keegan Thompson to a one-year contract.  It is a Major League deal for the 30-year-old right-hander, and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer specifies the contract is a split deal that will pay Thompson $1.3MM for his time in the majors.  Another $100K in incentive bonuses is also available in the contract.

A career Cub since being drafted by Chicago in the third round of the 2017 draft, Thompson will now head elsewhere in the NL Central.  Thompson was a pretty decent reliever and even an occasional starter for the Cubs during the 2021-24 seasons, at least in terms of bottom line numbers.  The righty posted a 3.64 ERA over his 227 1/3 career innings in the majors, and his 3.94 SIERA wasn’t much higher.  Thompson had a respectable 23% strikeout rate but control was a bigger issue, as he had an 11.3% walk rate.

The Cubs seemed to fall out of favor with Thompson in the spring, as he was designated for assignment and then outrighted off the team’s 40-man roster.  The result was a 2025 season spent entirely in the minors, as Chicago didn’t select Thompson’s contract back to the active roster even when the team was hunting for bullpen reinforcements.  Thompson’s 4.50 ERA over 64 innings at Triple-A Iowa didn’t really help his case for a promotion, but he had a strong 29.5% strikeout rate and his walk rate was a more manageable 8.9%.

Thompson selected minor league free agency at season’s end.  He is out of minor league options, so that means the Reds will have to DFA and outright Thompson when and if they bring him to the active roster and then want to send him to the minors.  Now that Thompson has been outrighted, he has the right to elect free agency if he is ever outrighted again, though he would have to forfeit any guaranteed salary in that circumstance.

There’s not much risk for the Reds in bringing in Thompson as a low-cost depth option to at least check out during spring camp.  The split contract also gives the team a bit more flexibility in moving Thompson to the minors at least on the financial side, apart from the out-of-options hurdle.  Thompson is also arbitration-controlled through the 2027 season.

Reds Bench Coach Brad Mills Retires

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The Reds announced a handful of changes to Terry Francona’s staff. Most notably, bench coach Brad Mills has retired. Mills was one of two bench coaches this year, so the Reds could stick with Freddie Benavides (who also has the title of field coordinator) without making an outside hire.

Cincinnati has made three additions to the staff. Mike Napoli gets the title of assistant bench coach after spending this past season in a nebulous “staff assistant” role. The Reds have also promoted Willie Harris to third base coach and hired Bill Haselman as their catching coach.

Mills, 68, has enjoyed a longtime relationship with Francona. He worked on Francona’s staffs in Philadelphia, Boston and Cleveland going back to the 1990s. He spent most of that time as the bench coach. Mills got a two-plus year managerial run of his own with the Astros between 2010-12, though a rebuilding Houston team won only 38.4% of their games over his tenure. He had not been on an MLB staff for a few seasons before returning last offseason when Francona came out of retirement to take over in Cincinnati.

Harris spent this past season managing Cincinnati’s Low-A affiliate in Daytona. He’s back on a major league staff in the same position he held with the Cubs between 2020-24. Cincinnati’s previous third base coach, JR House, left to take the same position with the Diamondbacks last month. Haselman is a former MLB catcher whose coaching career began with Francona’s Red Sox in the mid-2000s. He has ample minor league managerial experience and was most recently on a big league staff with the Angels in 2023.

Rays Acquire Ryan Vilade From Reds

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The Rays are acquiring outfielder Ryan Vilade from the Reds, according to a team announcement. Tampa is sending cash considerations to Cincinnati in exchange for Vilade’s services.

Vilade, 27 in February, joins the Rays following a season where he split time between the Cardinals and Reds organizations. He signed a minor league deal with St. Louis all the way back in December, and began the year in the minor leagues. Vilade hit well enough to get called up to the big league roster in late May, though he appeared in just seven games before being designated for assignment by the Cards in the middle of June. He was plucked off waivers by the Reds shortly thereafter, though they optioned him to Triple-A and he spent the majority of the rest of the season with the club’s Louisville affiliate and made just one appearance in Cincinnati.

Overall, Vilade went just 1-for-13 with two walks and five strikeouts in his taste of big league action this year. That more or less tracks with his limited cameos as a member of the Tigers and Rockies over the years, and he’ll join the Rays with a career .141/.200/.188 slash line across 71 plate appearances in the big leagues. His Triple-A numbers do suggest there might be more to Vilade than meets the eye, however. Between Louisville and the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate in Memphis, Vilade slashed a robust .290/.378/.511 in 113 games this year. He hit 29 doubles, 4 triples, and 17 homers in that time with 11 steals in 13 attempts, and struck out just 19.3% of the time. It’s an impressive profile, though on some level that’s to be expected of a 27-year-old outfielder hitting at Triple-A.

Even so, a small market team like the Rays could certainly benefit from taking a flier on Vilade. Tampa is in clear need of outfield help after a disappointing 2025 season where they had the fifth-worst outfield in baseball by wRC+ with a figure of just 85. That’s 15% worse than league average, and if the Rays don’t have the budget to make adding a big bat to the outfield a priority this winter, then it’s possible they could simply look to take fliers on players like Vilade who have succeeded in the minors but not yet gotten significant run in the big leagues. That sort of player isn’t quite as valuable for the Reds, who have Gavin Lux, TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Will Benson as potential outfield contributors on the roster with both Friedl and Marte as likely average or better regulars next year.

Santiago Espinal Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: As expected, Espinal rejected the outright assignment and chose to become a free agent, the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.

OCTOBER 31: The Reds announced today that infielder Santiago Espinal has been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville. That indicates he cleared waivers in recent days. He has the right to elect free agency and will presumably do so in the coming days.

It’s common for clubs to clear roster space at this time of year. The offseason will begin in the coming days, which means the injured list goes away. Players on the 60-day IL will need to retake roster spots, though some players are also heading to free agency. The Reds don’t have a super tight roster crunch at the moment. RosterResource pegs them at 38 guys for the start of the winter, though picking up options on Brent Suter and Scott Barlow could have got them back up to 40. Espinal’s removal drops them to 37, not including Suter or Barlow.

Even if the Reds don’t strictly need a roster spot right now, there’s value in opening one. Perhaps some interesting players will be put on waivers by other clubs in the coming days. The Reds will also presumably want to add a few players to the roster to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Espinal wasn’t going to be long for the roster anyway. His performance has been declining for a while now. He could have been retained for the 2026 season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.9MM salary, but the Reds were going to non-tender him.

The infielder had some decent results with the Blue Jays a few years ago, even making the All-Star team in 2022, but he hasn’t done much since then. He has stepped to the plate 973 times in the past three years with a combined .245/.298/.325 line and 71 wRC+. That includes a .243/.292/.282 line and 58 wRC+ in 2025.

At his best, Espinal can play multiple positions while hitting lefties. As recently as last year, though his overall offense was poor, he slashed .289/.344/.491 for a 122 wRC+ against southpaws. He was still better against lefties in 2025 but hit only .265/.317/.342 for a wRC+ of 81.

Assuming he elects free agency, Espinal could get interest from clubs for a bench/utility role, either on a minor league pact or a modest big league deal. He has experience at all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images

Ian Gibaut Elects Free Agency

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October 31: As expected, Gibaut elected free agency on Friday, according to the MiLB.com transaction log.

October 28: Reds reliever Ian Gibaut has been activated from the 60-day injured list and sent outright to Triple-A Louisville, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. The right-hander had been on the IL with a right shoulder impingement. Gibaut has over three years of service time, so he can reject the outright assignment in favor of free agency.

The 31-year-old has pitched in parts of four seasons with the Reds from 2022-25. In 137 2/3 innings with Cincinnati, he has posted a 3.92 ERA with a roughly average 22.5% strikeout rate and a below-average 9.3% walk rate. The highlight of his tenure was Gibaut’s 2023 season, in which he had a 3.33 ERA in 75 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen and allowed hard hits at a rate of just 31.8%, well below the league average of 38.2% among qualified relievers that year. Unfortunately, Gibaut made only two appearances the following season as he underwent surgery for a nerve issue in his forearm. The Reds non-tendered him in November 2024, but re-signed him to a minor league contract in January 2025.

In 25 1/3 innings across 25 appearances this year, Gibaut had a 4.62 ERA but did not miss many bats, with a mere 13.2% strikeout rate. Some of that can be attributed to injury, as his season was interrupted by two separate trips to the IL, the first coming at the end of April. Gibaut also appeared to be working with diminished stuff, as his average fastball velocity declined from 95.2 mph in 2023 to 94.0 mph in 2025 (he only threw two innings in 2024). However, he still did well at limiting hard contact with a hard-hit rate of 33.7%. He also lowered his walk rate to 7.3%, which graded out better than league average.

The Case For The Reds To Sign A Big Bat

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The Reds’ immediate exit from the playoffs makes it easy to forget the successes of the regular season. Cincinnati snapped a four-year postseason drought in manager Terry Francona’s first season. They won 83 games for just the second time since 2013. This team has something to build on heading into 2026, and now is the time to make a splash in free agency.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in Cincinnati’s Offseason Outlook for Front Office subscribers, improving the offense will be key this offseason. The club did not have the depth or high-end talent to compete with the best of the National League. Cincinnati could make smaller moves around the margins, as they’ve done in recent seasons, but why not take a bigger swing?

Financially, the team is in a decent spot. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the Reds with an estimated payroll of around $94MM heading into next season. They were close to $120MM this past season, and have been above $130MM in each season from 2020 to 2022. The biggest current commitment for 2026 is the $13MM owed to Jeimer Candelario. While it stings to be shelling out that amount to a player no longer in the organization, Candelario is the only one on the books for eight figures right now, assuming the team declines Austin Hays’ $12MM mutual option. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has Brady Singer projected to earn $11.9MM in arbitration, but the righty will likely be the only significant commitment coming from the arbitration process.

Cincinnati’s largest free agent contract by total value is a tie between Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas at $64MM over four years in 2020, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The club will have to go well beyond a $16MM average annual value to entice Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso, but maybe combining the outlay on Castellanos and Moustakas would be enough to make an interesting offer.

Part of the reason for the offense being the offseason focus is that the pitching staff was excellent in 2025. Hunter Greene looked like an ace when healthy. Andrew Abbott delivered a breakout season. Singer and Nick Lodolo provided stable innings. Chase Burns posted electrifying strikeout numbers upon getting called up. Cincinnati ranked ninth in starting pitcher ERA. Only six other starting staffs had more strikeouts.

The success on the mound is made more impressive by Cincinnati’s home venue. Great American Ball Park ranks third in StatCast’s Park Factor metric. It’s the second-highest rated park for home runs. The strides made by the starting pitching unit make the shortcomings of the offense harder to swallow, especially given the favorable hitting environment.

Though they snuck into the playoffs after chasing down the Mets, the Reds finished third in the NL Central. They haven’t been better than third in the division since winning it in 2012. This might be the perfect time to buck that trend.

Pittsburgh and St. Louis are in rebuilding mode, making this a three-horse race heading into next season. Milwaukee and Chicago both won 90+ games in 2025, but could be facing significant losses. Kyle Tucker is a free agent. He would fit the bill as a significant splash for Cincinnati, though he’s likely out of their price range. The more likely impact is removing a key contributor from the middle of the Cubs’ lineup. Speaking of important losses, Milwaukee could be considering a Freddy Peralta trade. It would be a massive loss for a rotation without much proven depth and some health questions.

The Brewers and Cubs are still likely the favorites to win the NL Central next season, but the Reds can close the gap. Their finances make a big move possible, and their pitching staff deserves better support. Schwarber said it would be “cool” to suit up for his hometown team. The Reds might as well try to make that happen.

What Can The Reds Expect From Matt McLain In 2026?

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It was a good season for the Reds in 2025, on balance. Hunter Greene replicated his excellent 2024 and cemented himself as one of the game’s top young starters, Andrew Abbott enjoyed a career-year that saw him make his first trip to the All-Star game, and despite winning just 83 games the club managed to squeak into the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2013.

With all that being said, however, there are clear flaws with the team as presently constructed and it’s not at all hard to see where the team needs to improve if they hope to return to the playoffs next year for another bite at the apple. The Cincinnati offense disappointed across the board this season, with even star shortstop Elly De La Cruz hitting 11 fewer extra-base hits and swiping 30 fewer bases than last year despite similar on-base numbers.

In a season where virtually every piece of the club’s offensive nucleus fell short of expectations, it seems a bit unfair to single out any one player. Even so, the struggles second baseman Matt McLain faced stand out among the crowd. McLain was one of the most exciting young players in baseball as recently as 2023, when his sensational 89-game rookie season earned him a fifth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2024 season due to injuries and in some regards looked like a shell of his former self this season.

That’s not to say he regressed across the board. McLain’s 28.9% strikeout rate this season was a near perfect match for the 28.5% clip he struck out at back in 2023. His 9.5% walk rate was actually a substantial improvement over the 7.7% rate he posted in his rookie campaign. His defense was also phenomenal as he finished the year with +6 Fielding Run Value, a figure bested by just eight qualified middle infielders in baseball this year. That’s a substantial step up from the +1 FRV McLain offered in his rookie campaign.

Those are all positive (or, in the case of McLain’s strikeout rate, at least neutral) signs relative to 2023. It’s also where the good times come to an end, however. McLain’s power was down substantially by just about every metric this past year. After slugging 16 homers in 89 games as a rookie, he hit 15 across 147 games this year. His doubles also dropped from 23 to 18, while his triples actually dropped from four all the way down to zero. Hitting ten fewer extra-base hits in 174 more plate appearances is a drop in power output that’s nothing short of alarming, and McLain’s paltry .124 ISO put him in the bottom 20 among qualified hitters this year. His barrel rate dropped more than three points from 2023, and his hard-hit rate has dropped nearly two.

That falls short of even some notoriously contact-oriented hitters like Jung Hoo Lee and Jacob Wilson. While those players (not to mention hitters with even less power like Luis Arraez and Nico Hoerner) get away with that minimal power output thanks to elite bat-to-ball skills, but McLain’s lack of improvement in the strikeout department leaves him unable to emulate that brand of hitting. Barring a massive drop in strikeout rate next year, McLain will need to recapture some of that power if he’s going to improve over this year’s paltry 77 wRC+, much less approach the 129 wRC+ he posted in his rookie season.

Just how feasible is that? It’s hard to believe that he’ll get back to that level he flashed in 2023 entirely, because that was buoyed in no small part by a .385 BABIP. A BABIP of .350 is typically viewed as around the upper limit of the sustainable year-to-year range, and McLain’s .292 BABIP this year falls firmly into that more sustainable range. It’s possible it ticks back up in the future, but reversing that more than 90-point drop appears to be little more than a pipe dream. Getting back above league average, however, seems to be a far more reasonable ask, and one that could turn McLain into a key piece of Cincinnati’s core once again.

He’ll need to adjust his approach a bit if he’s going to get there. McLain’s hard-hit rate was only marginally lower than his rookie season in 2025, but he lost more than a quarter of his barrels on a rate basis this season. Some of that can surely be attributed to a stark drop in line drives. While McLain’s grounder rate stayed stagnant at 38.7% between this year and 2023, his line drive rate dropped from a 24.2% clip as a rookie to just 17.2% this year. To put those numbers in context, his line drive rate this year ranked 132nd among 145 qualified hitters, while his 2023 rate would’ve ranked eighth this year among that same group.

Getting back to a more line drive oriented approach could help McLain both recoup some of those lost extra-base hits, and it would also help with his steeply declining BABIP. McLain hit 44.2% of his batted balls in the air this year, a top-30 clip in the majors. That works well for hitters like Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber who have the power to slug 40+ homers on an annual basis, but it’s a much less effective recipe for success for someone with McLain’s profile. He pulled the ball less often than all but 23 of the league’s qualified hitters this year, leaving him with a lot of fly outs and pop ups but little production to show for it.

If McLain can lower his launch angle a bit next year, he could get back to hitting the sweet spot more often than he did this year. That was the secret ingredient that made McLain so effective in 2023, as his 39.6% sweet spot rate ranked in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters. That dropped to just 34.0% this year, which placed him in the 43rd percentile. The good news for McLain and the Reds is that a change in approach is far easier to correct than a step back in underlying skills, and McLain’s discipline, defense, speed and bat speed all seem to be either right where they were in his rookie year or even better. That makes it relatively easy to imagine him re-emerging as a core piece of a Reds lineup that will need to generate a lot more offense this year if they want to build on their cameo in the playoffs this season.

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