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Orioles Sign Pedro Alvarez

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The Orioles have added some more punch to an already powerful lineup, as they formally announced a one-year contract with first baseman Pedro Alvarez on Thursday. Alvarez, a client of Scott Boras, will reportedly be guaranteed $5.75MM and can earn another $1.25MM in incentives tied to plate appearances. Specifically, he’ll receive a $200K bonus upon reaching 350, 400, 450, 500, and 550 turns at bat, plus an additional $250K if he gets to 600 plate appearances.

Oct 4, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman <a rel=

Alvarez, 29, just wrapped up a six-year run with the Pirates — the organization that chose him second overall in the 2008 draft — when he was non-tendered earlier in the offseason. He had moved across the diamond from third after his defensive struggles increased, but continued to receive poor reviews with the glove.

On the other hand, Alvarez’s power at the plate has never been in question. He swatted 27 home runs last year in 491 plate appearances, and has twice topped thirty bombs in a single season. Though he’s not much of an on-base threat, Alvarez’s overall batting line of .243/.318/.469 landed well above league-average in overall output.

That production is fairly typical for Alvarez, who strikes out quite a bit and doesn’t walk quite enough to make up for a low batting average. His left-handed bat should play quite well at Camden Yards, though, and he’ll join an impressive group of sluggers in the middle of the Baltimore order.

Presumably, Baltimore won’t utilize Alvarez much in the field, as Chris Davis and Manny Machado  are entrenched at the corners. He’ll join fellow power hitter Mark Trumbo (a right-handed bat) as a DH option — both carry traditional platoon splits — though Trumbo will likely also see quite a bit of action in the corner outfield. Alternatively, Davis did see some time in the outfield last year, and it’s at least possible that the O’s will deploy him there and Trumbo at first base.

Orioles fans can expect to be treated to quite a show when the offense is clicking. Alvarez is one of six players on the roster who have cracked 30 homers in a single season, along with Davis, Machado, Trumbo, Adam Jones, and J.J. Hardy. Likewise, catcher Matt Wieters and second baseman Jonathan Schoop have shown plenty of pop for their respective positions. Rounding things out, new left fielder Hyun Soo Kim may not quite see his KBO production translate fully to the majors, but he delivered 28 long balls last season in Korea.

The O’s have long been said to be pursuing another bat, with Reds outfielder Jay Bruce a possible trade piece. While Alvarez won’t factor as an option in the grass, his addition likely brings that dalliance to an end by pushing Trumbo back into the field (at least against right-handed pitching).

It’s been an eventful winter in Baltimore, to say the least. Wieters’ decision to accept his $15.8MM qualifying offer may have set the course, as that one-year deal (and the loss of a chance at draft compensation) helped nudge the club towards its later investments. The Orioles also brought back reliever Darren O’Day (four years, $31MM) and re-signed Davis to a huge contract (seven years, $161MM), punted a pick to ink Yovani Gallardo (two years, $22MM), also added Kim (two years, $7MM) and Alvarez via free agency, and acquired Trumbo via trade. The aggregate outlay tops $250MM in new salary commitments (including Trumbo’s arb payday) and ultimately required the team to pass up or part with three selections in this summer’s amateur draft (including the one that Wieters might have delivered had he rejected the QO).

Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported the signing on Twitter. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had the term (on Twitter), Joel Sherman of the New York Post the guarantee (in a tweet), Jon Heyman of MLB Network the total incentives (via Twitter), and Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com the incentives breakdown (in his own tweet).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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This is the fourth entry in the Offseason In Review series.  You can also read our Reds, Rockies and White Sox entries. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Indians saw longtime execs Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins depart to head up the Blue Jays’ baseball operations department, leaving the subsequently promoted president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff to fill out the roster around one of baseball’s best pitching staffs.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades

  • Acquired OF Collin Cowgill from Angels in exchange for cash considerations
  • Acquired RHP Dan Otero from Phillies in exchange for cash considerations

Waiver Claims

Extensions

  • Josh Tomlin, SP: Two years, $5.5MM plus $3MM club option ($750K buyout)

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Unlike most clubs entering the offseason, Cleveland didn’t feel an overwhelming need to search for pitching, as the club has three top-tier starters under control for the foreseeable future in the form of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar (to say nothing of a high-ceiling fourth starter in Trevor Bauer and a pair of quality options for the fifth spot in Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson). Rather, the question was whether the club would deal from its potential pitching surplus to address other needs around the diamond. With room for upgrades at both infield corners and a pair of outfield spots, there were a number of routes that the Tribe could take to improve an offense that finished 11th in the American League in runs scored.

Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli was brought in to serve as an upgrade at first base, and he’ll provide the club with a strong glove there, pushing Carlos Santana to DH duty. Napoli didn’t hit much in Boston last season, but he batted .295/.396/.513 upon being acquired by the Rangers late in the year. The catcher-turned-first-baseman still crushed left-handed pitching last season, but at $7MM — a fairly notable sum that represents nearly 40 percent of the free-agent spending by the Indians — they’ll be expecting him to produce even against same-handed pitching.

The need across the diamond at third base was certainly more palpable than the need at first, and while the Indians waited awhile to address the position, the club’s late signing of Juan Uribe should serve as an upgrade. Though he’ll turn 37 later this month, Uribe continues to grade out well defensively at third base. While he might not yield the level of defensive value that a platoon of Jose Ramirez and Giovanny Urshela could have produced, Uribe should be average or better with the glove with a markedly superior bat. This past season, Uribe slashed .253/.320/.417 with 14 home runs in 397 plate appearances, thereby continuing a resurgence that began in 2013 with his age-34 campaign. Uribe almost certainly won’t return to his ways as a 20- to 25-homer threat, but a collective .281/.329/.432 batting line across three prior seasons suggests that there’s still life in his bat, and his personality should be a boon to the clubhouse.

Left-handed relief was perhaps the one area in which the Indians have some uncertainty on the pitching staff, and the front office added a number of veteran arms on minor league deals in the hopes of parlaying one or two into solid production. Lefties Joe Thatcher, Ross Detwiler and Tom Gorzelanny have all had success in the Majors within the past two seasons, and any could emerge as a complement to incumbent options like Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto. Alternatively, upper-level minor leaguers Shawn Morimando and Ryan Merritt could emerge as lefty relief candidates, and former fifth starter T.J. House remains on the 40-man roster (though he missed most of 2015 with shoulder injuries and struggled in a return to action in last year’s Arizona Fall League).

Questions Remaining

The outfield was already the Indians’ largest question mark heading into the offseason, and that uncertainty only became more pronounced with the news that Michael Brantley would require surgery to repair his ailing shoulder. However, despite a glaring need, the club’s only big league acquisition was veteran speedster Rajai Davis. While the fleet-footed Davis remained a productive player throughout his two most recent seasons with the division-rival Tigers, he’s a right-handed hitter that comes with a notable platoon split, making him best-suited for part-time work.

Losing Brantley was a sizable enough blow to the team, but the club lost projected center fielder Abraham Almonte to an 80-game PED suspension in the first week of Spring Training. That Cleveland was relying on the journeyman Almonte, a career .244/.297/.378 hitter that batted an improved .264/.321/.455 in 196 PAs with the Indians last year, was a questionable decision in the first place, as I noted in previewing the team’s offseason back in early October.

With Almonte and Brantley out of action, Cleveland will look to some combination of Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Collin Cowgill, Joey Butler and minor league signees like Will Venable and Robbie Grossman in the outfield. Prospect Tyler Naquin, too, could factor into the mix with a strong spring after a solid minor league showing in 2015. None of those options come with much certainty, though a few patchwork platoons could be forged. Davis has long handled left-handed pitching quite well, so he could be paired with newly converted outfielder Chisenhall (who posted brilliant defensive marks in a small sample last year) in right field or with Venable in center field. However, Venable has suffered through two dismal seasons, and at 33 years of age, it’s fair to wonder if there’s been some deterioration of his skills.

Cowgill and Butler are, like Davis, right-handed bats best-suited for part-time work; Cowgill comes with a more defensive-minded approach, whereas Butler provides more with the bat but less with the glove.

It should be pointed out that Austin Jackson remained available on the free agent market even after the Almonte suspension, but the Indians watched him sign a one-year, $5MM deal with the division-rival White Sox instead of bringing him into the fold. Cleveland reportedly showed interest in Jackson, but the payroll was long said to be tapped out. This is, of course, speaking with the glaring benefit of hindsight, but given the need in the outfield, the $7MM allocated to Napoli with the hopes that he can still hit right-handed pitching (which he failed to do in 2015) could arguably have been better spent helping to bolster Cleveland’s offer to Jackson. When Napoli signed, no one knew that Jackson would languish in free agency for this long, nor that Almonte would be suspended. But relying on Almonte was always a risk, and given the number of first base/DH types that signed late (or, in Justin Morneau’s case, have yet to sign), there’s a good case to be made that prioritizing the outfield and pursuing a cheaper first base/DH option should have been Plan A all along.

All of this outfield uncertainty raises the question of whether the Indians should’ve dealt from their stockpile of controllable arms to add a bat into the mix. Top prospects Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier are both rising through the minor league ranks, so it’s understandable if the club feels that reinforcements are on the way. That, however, does little to improve the short-term outlook for a club that is otherwise well-positioned to contend within its division. The Indians were oft-connected to Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, and we saw the Rockies part with a controllable corner option in Corey Dickerson without even securing a Major League ready starting pitcher. The D-backs, too, saw fit to part with five years of Ender Inciarte (and another pair of highly touted prospects) to add Shelby Miller to their rotation, and it can be argued that Cleveland has multiple arms that are superior to Miller. Other financially affordable names like Charlie Blackmon were said to be on the market, and there was even talk of the Astros being willing to entertain the thought of moving George Springer for a sizable enough return.

Cleveland boasts a rotation that would still look appealing even with one member subtracted, a solid bullpen and quality bench pieces in Jose Ramirez and Roberto Perez. (Any of the previously listed Butler, Cowgill or Venable would also make for a quality big league bench piece.) Relying on this outfield mix while also banking on returns to form from Napoli and Yan Gomes could very well create difficulty when it comes to scoring runs.

Deal of Note

Tomlin’s extension, while not the biggest headline-grabber, was one of the more peculiar multi-year deals in recent memory. Tomlin had already agreed to a one-year, $2.25MM contract to avoid arbitration, and he received the added perk of the Indians making that sum fully guaranteed (which is not the norm for arb salaries). His contract, however, guarantees him $5.5MM in total, including the upcoming season, meaning that Tomlin surrendered what would have been his first free-agent season for a total of $3.25MM. Beyond that, he gave the Indians control of his second free-agent season by virtue of a club option valued at $3MM (with a $750K buyout). If the option is picked up, Tomlin will receive $5.5MM for his first two free-agent years.

While he doesn’t come with a huge track record in the Majors, Tomlin showed promising gains in the strikeout department across the past two seasons, and we’ve seen teams throw around $5.5MM and more on one-year gambles (e.g. Rich Hill) with based on very small samples of success. The flipside, of course, is that he’s guaranteed himself some meaningful salary — something that was clearly important to Tomlin, as evidenced by the fact that his agents pushed for a fully guaranteed arb agreement. Still, if Tomlin enjoys even a reasonably healthy, successful season, his earning power would have vastly outpaced the extension’s modest guarantee.

Overview

At the outset of free agency, I wouldn’t have disagreed with the notion that the Indians didn’t need to do much to contend for the AL Central in 2016. I doubt, however, that I’d have anticipated such a strict adherence to that line of thinking on the team’s behalf. The Indians will once again have one of baseball’s best pitching staffs, but they’ll need plenty to go right in order to score enough runs to support those arms. An accelerated return for Brantley — which is the direction he’s reportedly heading — and contributions from a prospect such as Naquin or even Zimmer would go a long ways toward improving the team’s chances. That’s quite a bit to bank on, though, especially considering the other rebounds that will be hoped for around the rest of the roster (Napoli, Gomes, possibly Venable).

Questions aside, I’ll be surprised if the Indians aren’t in the mix in the AL Central this season. Beyond the team’s pitching depth, the pairing of Francisco Lindor (whom I felt should’ve landed Rookie of the Year honors over the also-excellent Carlos Correa) and Jason Kipnis creates one of baseball’s best double-play tandems, and a healthy Brantley is among baseball’s best outfielders. Nevertheless, many of the same offense-oriented questions that surrounded the team in 2015 figure to recur in 2016, and it’s not hard to envision them seeking a bat or two come July.

MLBTR readers that want to give their own take on the Indians’ offseason can weigh in with their grade in the following poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Naquin, Royals, White Sox, Quentin

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Indians prospect Tyler Naquin, a former first-round pick, is positioning himself to contend for the Opening Day center field job in the wake of Michael Brantley’s injury and Abraham Almonte’s suspension, writes Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. Manager Terry Francona explained that Naquin has caught his eye early on, though he still has plenty of work to do before he’s earned a roster spot. “The fist week, he’s been very impressive, and that’s good because you’re looking for that,” said Francona. “But I don’t think you just make your team out the first week of camp, either.” Lewis notes that while Naquin might not be as highly regarded as top organizational prospects Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier (both outfielders by trade, as well), that could actually play into Naquin’s favor in a strange way, as the team might not have the same service time reservations with him that it would have with No. 1 and 2 prospects. Naquin, 24, split the 2015 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A, batting a combined .300/.381/.446 in 378 plate appearances.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • While the Pirates have a reputation for making good on reclamation projects on which the club buys low, the Associated Press notes that the Royals have experienced some similar succes in recent years, pointing to signings like Chris Young, Ryan Madson and Joe Blanton as outstanding bargains. “[General manager Dayton Moore] really shows you that he wants you here and he’s going to give you every chance to prove that you still have something left,” non-roster invitee Peter Moylan told the AP. “For me, that was a big reason why I came here.” While Moore certainly deserves some credit for the outstanding value pickups, the GM praised his manager and coaching staff for their success as well. “[Manager Ned Yost] and the coaching staff embrace the players we bring into the organization,” Moore said. “They trust in the opinions of our scouts, and then the (current) players’ attitudes and mindset is everyone is in this together, so they bring guys in.” Other reclamation projects in camp with the Royals this season include right-hander Dillon Gee, outfielder Travis Snider and veteran infielder Clint Barmes.
  • The White Sox and Reds haven’t had any recent talks about Jay Bruce now that Chicago has added Austin Jackson on a one-year deal, tweets Jon Heyman. Following the addition of Jackson, the Sox are done with their pursuit of starting-caliber outfielders, Heyman notes. That would eliminate yet another suitor for Bruce, who looks increasingly likely to begin the year with the Reds now that Jackson is in Chicago and the Orioles have reportedly agreed to add Pedro Alvarez on a one-year deal (thus pushing Mark Trumbo or Chris Davis to the outfield). Earlier today, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked at the Jackson signing as part of his review of the White Sox’ offseason.
  • Carlos Quentin genuinely believed that his playing days were over when he announced that he planned to retire last May, he explained to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. However, Quentin said he was surprised by how quickly his body began to feel better in his absence from playing. His knees and shoulder, both problematic in the past, returned to normal, and his agent spread the word that Quentin could seek a comeback in 2016. Interestingly, Quentin said that he received non-roster invitations based solely on his track record, but while he was flattered, he didn’t want to sign with a team until the club had seen him and he had earned the invite. “You don’t want to waste anyone’s time,” he said. The Twins offered that chance, sending a scout to watch him near his San Diego home. Hitting coach and former big leaguer Tom Brunansky, who lived nearby, also attended the workout and was impressed by Quentin’s bat speed. “They said they’re looking for a veteran presence, someone to come off the bench and give a good at-bat,” said Quentin of the Twins. “…They were honest, and I appreciate them giving me a fair shake. I said I’ll come and give it my best effort.”

Braves Have High Asking Price On Erick Aybar

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In the wake of a thumb injury that could cost Cardinals shortstop Jhonny Peralta up to three months, Erick Aybar’s name quickly surfaced as a speculative trade target to replace Peralta in the short-term. Aybar is, after all, an affordable veteran that is one season away from free agency and is playing on a rebuilding Braves club. However, Atlanta GM John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the club isn’t keen on trading Aybar.

“Erick Aybar was a big part of the Andrelton Simmons trade,” said Coppolella of the trade in which the Braves landed Aybar, lefty Sean Newcomb and right-hander Chris Ellis in exchange for their franchise shortstop. “We don’t want to trade Erick Aybar; he’s a great, winning player. We need to win more games this year, and he’s going to be a big part of that. So we’re very happy to hold onto Erick Aybar.”

Of course, none of that is a firm statement expressing that Aybar will not be traded; the Braves, after all, offered similar sentiments about Craig Kimbrel last offseason but still traded him to the Padres in a blockbuster deal on the eve of Opening Day. The comments about Aybar, while indicating that the club does indeed value him highly, also are not quite as firm as the adamant stance that Coppolella took against trading first baseman Freddie Freeman. With Freeman’s name swirling in rumors, Coppolella took to the media to publicly state: “I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening.”

On paper, Aybar would seem to be a prime trade candidate for the Braves. He’s earning $8.5MM this season in the final year of his contract, and the Braves don’t expect to contend this season, as the bulk of the highly touted minor leaguers they’ve acquired recently won’t be ready for the big leagues until 2017 or, at the earliest, mid-to-late 2016. Then again, Aybar is coming off something of a down season, having followed up a solid four-year stretch from 2011-14 that saw him bat .279/.317/.399 with a meek .270/.301/.338 slash in his age-31 season. O’Brien notes that it’s possible that the Braves could net more for Aybar in a summer trade, and that’s certainly true if he gets off to a good start to the season. In addition to being able to rebuild some of his stock over the season’s first three months, it stands to reason that there will be a greater number of potential suitors looking for a shortstop upgrade.

As O’Brien writes, Coppolella and the Braves feel that the trade in which the club landed Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair in exchange for Shelby Miller accelerated the club’s timeline to contend, thereby shifting their focus to trades that will help them improve in both the immediate future and in the long term. If that is indeed the case, then it does seem unlikely that Atlanta would be able to receive immediate benefit from moving Aybar. Both Swanson and top prospect Ozhaino Albies are a ways from the Majors, and even a mid-2016 projection for either would be an aggressive timeline in forecasting their arrival in the Major Leagues.

Adrian Beltre Seeks Three-Year Deal From Rangers

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Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre is looking for a three-year deal in extension talks with the club, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He’s also hoping to out-earn Pablo Sandoval on an annual basis, per the report, which would suggest a deal with an average annual value in excess of $19MM. Presumably, that contract would kick in following the 2016 campaign, as Beltre is already guaranteed $18MM for the upcoming season.

As things stand, unsurprisingly, there’s said to be a “significant gap” between the sides. If nothing else, it seems that there’s quite a bit of negotiating left to do to find agreement. We have heard recently about mutual interest in a deal, however, as Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reported.

Beltre will soon turn 37 and dealt with a significant injury to his thumb last year. But he was still a productive hitter in 2015, with a .287/.334/.453 slash, and was arguably the game’s very best defensive third baseman. It also shouldn’t be forgotten that he was coming off of a five-year run in which he averaged a remarkable .316/.364/.535 batting line and 6.7 rWAR annually.

It’s obvious to see why Texas would have interest in keeping the veteran around, but there’s also good reason to think the organization will be cautious about promising him that kind of money through his age-40 season. In addition to age and injury risks, the Rangers have some promising options in their system, including former top prospect Jurickson Profar and power hitting youngster Joey Gallo.

Finding a middle ground could be a challenge, but still seems a plausible result. In his recent appearance on the MLBTR Podcast, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News opined that it could make sense to see a two-year contract in the range of Beltre’s current earnings — i.e., somewhere in the range of $16MM per year. However, Heyman hints that there’s a sense in Beltre’s camp that he outperformed his prior deal (which is undeniably true), and that could have an effect on his stance in future talks.

As Steve Adams of MLBTR posited in a recent MLBTR chat, it’s not surprising to see a three-year request out of the gates from Beltre. For one thing, Beltre’s reported position is only a starting point: it’s worth noting that, as Grant stated on the podcast, talks haven’t yet progressed much given the team’s other prerogatives. And advanced age doesn’t always preclude that length of contract in free agency. Carlos Beltran landed three years and $45MM from the Yankees for his age-37 through age-39 campaigns, and he wasn’t really even close to Beltre in terms of overall on-field value given his increasingly apparent defensive limitations in the corner outfield.

As things stand, Beltre is set to be one of the few premium players set to hit the open market next winter. He profiles as a future Hall-of-Famer and ranks fourth in total fWAR dating back to 2011, so he presents something of a unique player. Jose Bautista, who is about two years younger, is said to be seeking a $30MM (or greater) AAV over a five- or six-year term, and there’s certainly an argument to be made that Beltre represents a more appealing investment at his reported asking price.

Truth be told, there aren’t many straightforward comparables for a Beltre extension, in large part because it’s unusual to find players who have performed at such a high level — at a difficult defensive position, no less — at this stage of their careers. Entering his age-38 season with free agency beckoning, Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz got another season and $16MM guaranteed from the Red Sox, with a vesting option and second option year at floating prices depending on the prior years’ plate appearances. At the end of a productive 2013 season, the slightly younger Chase Utley signed on for two more guaranteed years at $27MM with a series of vesting options (in an even more complicated deal with the Phillies). Utley, however, had a spottier recent track record due to a series of knee injuries that understandably gave the Phillies pause.

While those agreements fall shy of what Beltre is seeking, it’s fair to note that some huge extensions have promised premium salaries up to or through players’ age-40 campaigns. That was the case for players like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez, though of course all of those deals also covered more youthful campaigns. But, in some sense, every time a monster contract pushes control towards or past a player’s 40th birthday, the hope is that the player profiles as well as Beltre does now when the end of the deal approaches.

In the end, those contracts don’t really tell us much about Beltre’s own late-career earning power, as the late-30s years that were guaranteed in each of those deals was the cost of locking up the remaining prime seasons of each of those stars. Few players have maintained this level of productivity into the late stages of their career with the prospect of another bite at free agency looming, so any contract he signs will ultimately be deemed as something of a precedent-setter for aging-but-elite players that still hold open-market aspirations.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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This is the third entry in the Offseason In Review series.  You can also read our Reds and Rockies entries.

The White Sox addressed many different offseason needs without making big sacrifices to the team’s future.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • Nate Jones, RP: three years, $8MM.  Includes $4.65MM club option for 2019, $5.15MM club option for 2020, and $6MM mutual option for 2021, assuming Jones does not require right elbow surgery by end of 2018 season

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

As explained in our October Offseason Outlook for the White Sox, the team had rampant needs this winter.  Let’s begin by examining how GM Rick Hahn upgraded baseball’s worst collection of position players.

Given all the work the White Sox had to do around the diamond, I didn’t feel the team had to make a change at catcher.  Hahn disagreed, and proceeded to sign Alex Avila, non-tender incumbent Tyler Flowers, and sign Dioner Navarro.  Is the new Avila-Navarro tandem better than Flowers and Geovany Soto?  White Sox catchers hit .230/.293/.376 last year, and Avila and Navarro should provide an offensive upgrade.  It seems likely that Flowers and Soto are better at pitch framing, however.  This change mostly looks like a wash.  The Sox also have out of options catcher Rob Brantly on the 40-man; he could wind up with another team.

Feb 27, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox shortstop <a rel=Alexei Ramirez served as Chicago’s starting shortstop for seven years.  That era ended when the White Sox declined his club option.  Tyler Saladino may still act as the bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, but the White Sox smartly added veteran Jimmy Rollins on a minor league deal as insurance.  The Sox acquired Brett Lawrie from Oakland to play second base, giving up a pair of arms ranked 18th and 23rd in their farm system by Baseball America.  The price was relatively meager, but it also reflects Lawrie’s failure to live up to expectations thus far in his Major League career.  The 26-year-old finally stayed healthy in 2015, but was barely above replacement level.  If Lawrie is able to bounce back defensively and remain healthy, I think there’s a 2-3 win player in there.  It was a reasonable gamble for Hahn, and Lawrie is under team control for 2017.

For the team’s third base vacancy, the White Sox landed the best available option in Todd Frazier.  I was surprised the Hahn was able to acquire two years of Frazier for Montas, Thompson, and Johnson.  Each of those young players has promise, of course, but the Sox didn’t have to surrender a blue-chip prospect or anyone they’d miss in 2016.  Over the last two years, Frazier has been one of the five best third basemen in the game.  He fits well with the team’s core of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Jose Abreu, and Eaton.

I felt that the White Sox should acquire two starting outfielders, pushing Melky Cabrera to the DH spot and Adam LaRoche and Avisail Garcia potentially off the roster.  The Sox showed December interest in Alex Gordon and Yoenis Cespedes, but they reportedly did not want to exceed a three-year deal.  Cespedes ultimately did sign for three years, but at a hefty $25MM average annual value.  The Sox reportedly had interest in Justin Upton and Dexter Fowler once the calendar turned to 2016, offering Fowler a two-year deal worth more than $17MM.  In the end, Austin Jackson was signed just this week on an affordable one-year deal.  The Jackson signing wasn’t an exciting way to address the team’s outfield, but it does protect against the possible effects of Adam Eaton’s offseason shoulder surgery.  Eaton is not yet ready to play in the field, and has an injury history that suggests relying on him for 153 games again would be unwise.  The team also weakened its outfield depth by including Trayce Thompson in the Todd Frazier deal, so Jackson was sorely needed.  If Eaton, Adam LaRoche, Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, and Jackson are healthy at the same time, it seems that Avisail Garcia will lose the most playing time, and that makes the team better.

As expected, the Sox let Jeff Samardzija leave via free agency, collecting a draft pick in the process.  In getting Mat Latos for just $3MM, Hahn signed the winter’s best pitching reclamation project at a small fraction of the projected cost.  The 28-year-old Latos was brilliant from 2010-13, and with good health he could return to form under pitching coach Don Cooper.

The Sox will return a similar bullpen for 2016, having re-signed Albers.  The bullpen will again by led by veterans David Robertson and Zach Duke, but will benefit from a full season from the newly-extended Nate Jones.  Turner was claimed off waivers in October, non-tendered in December, and re-signed a few days later.  Turner and Dan Jennings are out of minor league options, so they’ll either make the 25-man roster out of camp or be off the 40-man somehow.  Maybe the White Sox were simply content with their bullpen, or maybe their hands were tied financially given the $16MM they’ll be paying Robertson and Duke this year.

Questions Remaining

The outfield/designated hitter situation is the biggest remaining question for the White Sox.  The addition of Jackson is balanced by the loss of Thompson, so nothing was really done to address a group of players that provided very little value in 2015.  Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Avisail Garcia were each below replacement level last year, and the team still needs to give a lot of playing time to at least two of them.  One more significant outfield addition would have gone a long way.

Latos helps the team’s rotation depth, but it’s difficult to guess how many good innings he’ll provide.  The White Sox have John Danks, Erik Johnson, and Jacob Turner as starters five through seven, all of whom project for ERAs around 5.00.  It’s unclear when top pitching prospect Carson Fulmer will be ready.  Further down the depth chart it might be Chris Beck and Scott Carroll.  Most teams aren’t thrilled about their eighth starter, but the Sox are thin after Sale, Quintana, and Rodon.

In general, a cautious yet active offseason will draw praise.  However, the flip side to bargain shopping is that you get less reliable players.  Yes, the White Sox addressed their middle infield situation, but Rollins and Lawrie were actually pretty bad in 2015.  Ian Desmond would have been a safer bet than Rollins.  Avila, Latos, and Lawrie can’t be replied upon to stay healthy; that’s part of the reason they came cheap.

Latos and Lawrie may have come cheap for another reason: both have had questions raised about their attitudes.  The White Sox have a long history of success bringing in some of the game’s bad boys, a point referenced by Hahn when MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince asked about Latos.  Still, Robin Ventura’s clubhouse this year will be worth monitoring.

Deal Of Note

In early November, I pegged Austin Jackson for a one-year, $12MM deal.  Maybe I was just wrong from the start, but signing him for less than half of that amount is an excellent deal for the team.  Jackson hasn’t been an above average hitter since 2013, but he played a capable center field last year and could certainly be worth two wins again.  That’s easily worth $5MM.  Jackson will be in center field when he starts, pushing Adam Eaton to a corner spot and improving Chicago’s defense.  As an added bonus, the signing kept Jackson away from the division-rival Indians, who still lack outfield depth.  I don’t think the White Sox entered the offseason planning to wait until March for an outfield bargain, given their interest in other free agents and trade targets.  Staying disciplined on free agents is risky in its own way as the supply dries up.  If another team had signed Jackson this month, the White Sox outfield would be in a really bad place.

Overview

Rick Hahn must be applauded for his offseason, as he did so much without transferring a burden onto the team’s long-term future.  It’s fair to say Hahn helped get the White Sox into this mess through some of last winter’s free agent spending, but he has positioned them to be within spitting distance of a playoff spot for 2016.  With players like Lawrie, Rollins, Jackson, Cabrera, LaRoche, and Latos, you might think a lot of things need to go right for the White Sox to contend.  I don’t think that’s true, however.  Hahn’s veteran acquisitions raised the team’s floor considerably, and they shouldn’t have the dead roster spots they did last year.  Hopefully, the White Sox will take an aggressive approach toward the trade deadline, as the team could well be one player away.

Now, it’s your turn to grade the team’s offseason (click here if you’re using our app):

AL Notes: Bautista, Desmond, Hultzen, Rondon

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Star Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista is looking for a contract that will keep him in Toronto into his forties at a $30MM+ AAV, says Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links), but the 35-year-old is perhaps more willing to negotiate than some of his prior comments would suggest. Previous reports of Bautista’s contract requests have reflected just that kind of asking price while sometimes portraying his stance as being more firm. Jays GM Ross Atkins made clear recently that talks have been amicable, and Heyman adds that Bautista does hope to continue on in Toronto, so it appears there is still some hope that the sides can come together on a new contract for the pending free agent.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • Twins righty Ricky Nolasco believes he should remain in the club’s rotation, agent Matt Sosnick tells Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link). Referencing last year’s disappointing, injury-filled campaign, Sosnick suggests that his client “deserves to show the Twins what he looks like without trying to pitch through pain.” If Nolasco is pushed to the pen, says Sosnick, he’d approach the front office to “directly address his feelings of disappointment” and “ask the team about his other options.”
  • The initial returns on Ian Desmond in left field appear to be positive for the Rangers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. He also notes that the Giants had some interest in Desmond earlier in the winter as a super-utility option that would primarily play in the corner outfield, while the Orioles were involved later.
  • Mariners lefty Danny Hultzen has suffered a setback in his bid to get back on the bump in a relief role, Shannon Drayer of Seattle’s 710AM ESPN was among those to report on Twitter. He’ll seemingly rest a while as he deals with shoulder stiffness, which hopefully will clear up on its own. It has been a long and difficult road for the 26-year-old, who has dealt with a series of arm issues since he was chosen second overall in the 2011 draft.
  • Tigers reliever Bruce Rondon touched 100 mph yesterday and continues to show good form in camp, as Aaron McMann of MLive.com reports. After a disappointing end to the 2015 season, in which he was asked to leave the organization due to his lack of effort, Rondon has drawn positive reviews so far this spring. “He’s been good,” said skipper Brad Ausmus. “He’s done his work, he’s taken his non-pitching fundamentals seriously. He’s put in the effort and he’s looked strong so far on the mound.”

Skip Schumaker To Retire

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Utilityman Skip Schumaker has departed Padres camp and appears to be wrapping up his MLB career, manager Andy Green told reporters including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Though he’s not referring to the decision as a formal retirement, the veteran made clear he is moving on from his playing days to spend more time with his family.

Schumaker, 36, signed a minor league deal with San Diego a month ago, and had made a strong impression in camp on the field staff and younger players in the organization. Earlier in the winter, the Reds declined an option to put him onto the open market.

Schumaker has spent parts of eleven seasons in the majors. Most recently, he logged two disappointing seasons in Cincinnati, putting up a meager .238/.297/.322 batting line over 539 turns at bat.

He’ll be remembered most for his time with the Cardinals, where he was a strong contributor for eight campaigns. Schumaker was a regular contributor over 2008 through 2012, and ultimately provided St. Louis with over 2,500 plate appearances with a .288/.345/.377 slash line while splitting his time between second base and the outfield. Schumaker also played for one season with the Dodgers.

With the move, the Padres seem positioned to infuse some additional youth onto the active roster, as players such as Jose Pirela and Jabari Blash now have a clearer path to cracking the club. The competition is also thinned for other potential utility/bench/platoon options in camp, including Alexi Amarista, Brett Wallace, Adam Rosales, Nick Noonan, Jemile Weeks, and Alex Dickerson.

MLBTR wishes Schumaker the best in his future pursuits.

NL East Notes: Harvey, Fernandez, Hernandez, Braves, Rivero

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While the Mets have made clear they don’t have any ongoing extension talks with their starters, and there isn’t a ton of pressure given their extended existing control, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests that it may be worth at least exploring some chatter with Matt Harvey. Both the prized righty and his agent, Scott Boras, have suggested they’d be willing to engage in dialogue. Harvey, 26, is earning $4.33MM in his first of three seasons of arbitration eligibility. Sherman suggests that buying the remaining two arb years at about $29MM and adding three free agent seasons at $30MM a pop might be a fair valuation. While that seems to be a pretty fair suggestion for an outstanding 3+ starter, even in spite of his recent Tommy John surgery, from my perspective it’s somewhat difficult to imagine Harvey and Boras jumping at $119MM over five years. Such a deal would take Harvey though his age-32 season, meaning he’d hit the market at about the same stage as James Shields did last winter. It’s also far from clear that New York would be interested in such a scenario, of course, and Sherman makes very clear that any such concept is something of a longshot.

Here’s more from the NL East:

  • Marlins ace Jose Fernandez, who is currently on track to hit the market with Harvey and a host of other premium players, is working on decreasing his reliance on his big fastball, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. The hope is that Fernandez will not only be able to improve — a scary proposition for opponents — but will reduce the load on his recently-repaired elbow. “We want to see him continue to pitch and continue to develop his weapons, where he’s not having to have the mentality that I’ve got to strike everybody out,” explained new manager Don Mattingly. “There’s nothing wrong with having guy hit a ground ball early in the count. … We think pitching that way keeps him healthy for a long time. It’s good for him. It’s good for us. It’s good for everybody.”
  • Interestingly, the recent Tommy John research of MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum showed that the volume of what he classifies as “hard pitches” can have significant predictive power of future UCL replacements. Fernandez is the biggest name to land among the ten pitchers with the highest statistical TJ risk this year, per Woodrum’s research, which certainly suggests that thoughtful handling is warranted.
  • Presumed Phillies closer David Hernandez is dealing with some “issues” with his right elbow, manager Pete Mackanin told reporters including Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The skipper himself didn’t seem entirely sure of what difficulties Hernandez was having. Meanwhile, the righty says he isn’t injured and is simply trying not to overburden himself having missed a lot of camp time in recent springs, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweets.
  • In Braves camp, Cuban veteran Hector Olivera is still working to refine his hitting mechanics, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with the team seeing signs of improvement. The first impressions of youngster Ozzie Albies have been universally positive, O’Brien adds, who may be pushing up his big league timeline (although not all the way to Opening Day this year) with his performance. Meanwhile, Atlanta may seek to utilize Jace Peterson in more of a utility role this season, O’Brien adds.
  • James Wagner of the Washington Post has an interesting feature on Nationals lefty Felipe Rivero, who came over as one of two minor leaguers to accompany Jose Lobaton in the deal that sent Nate Karns to the Rays. The fireballing southpaw has focused on strengthening his arm, and hopes that touching 100 mph last year will become a more common occurrence. While he says he “was thinking too much before” in a starter’s role, Rivero now feels settled in as a pen man. “Last season,” he said, “I’d imagine that, even if I was facing Barry Bonds, I’d get him out. Or when I threw against the league’s best batters, I didn’t think about the Mets or whoever. It’s me versus you. If I strike you out, I strike you out. If you make contact, you make contact. That’s it.” Wagner notes that Rivero could factor into the team’s future closer considerations, and the 24-year-old says he’d welcome such an opportunity.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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Last summer’s Troy Tulowitzki deal seemed to promise the launch of a rebuilding effort, but the Rockies didn’t act as a seller this winter.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

GM Jeff Bridich and his front office surely feel they’ve significantly upgraded the team’s bullpen with a series of veteran additions. Jason Motte and Chad Qualls — whose signings were announced in tandem — were added to bolster the back of the pen from the right side, while Jake McGee delivers premium K:BB rates from the left. They are the key new arms that will help to gobble up relief frames, hopefully in a more productive fashion than many of the outgoing arms. While last year’s overall unit was probably more below-average than terrible, Colorado bid adieu this winter to John Axford (55 2/3 innings in 2015), Christian Friedrich (58 1/3), Rafael Betancourt (39 1/3), Tommy Kahnle (33 1/3), Brooks Brown (33), and LaTroy Hawkins (22 1/3 before his summer trade and eventual retirement).

With righty Justin Miller and lefty Boone Logan also providing late-inning options, there’s certainly hope for improvement — though it doesn’t help that the club just lost Jairo Diaz, a fairly interesting power arm, to Tommy John surgery. The question, though, is whether the price was right. Spending $16MM in total for two years apiece of Motte and Qualls isn’t a huge investment, at least for most of the league, but both come with real questions (including age) and neither deal seems to represent a screaming value. The real eye-opener was McGee, who is a legitimately excellent reliever but who comes with some injury questions and required the sacrifice of four years of Corey Dickerson and his rather impressive bat.

Feb 29, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder <a rel=Of course, Dickerson was only shipped out after the Rox added Gerardo Parra. He unquestionably represents an upgrade defensively, though he doesn’t seem to possess near the offensive upside of the younger and cheaper player he’s replacing. The everyday outfield alignment — also including Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, either one of whom could also have been traded — is entirely left-handed, which obviously creates some questions. But Colorado tendered Brandon Barnes and added Ryan Raburn on a minors deal, so there will be some options against opposing southpaws.

The only other significant major league acquisition was slugger Mark Reynolds, whose power will be a sight to behold in Coors Field even if his on-base percentage isn’t. He’s a low-cost add who figures to split time with the southpaw-swinging Ben Paulsen at first while contributing some pop off of the bench. That pairing will step in for Justin Morneau, who missed much of last season and received a $750K buyout when the club declined its end of a $9MM mutual option.

Questions Remaining

The questions in Colorado always seem to begin with the rotation, and at first glance it’s hard to fathom that the organization did not add any MLB-level starters over the winter. After all, last year’s revolving-door staff threw less innings than any other and produced at a level rivaled only by the Phillies.

To be fair, though, the Rockies figure to welcome back several pitchers who missed all or most of 2015, and as I posited at the offseason’s outset, it never made much sense to plow money into marginal free agent hurlers to convince them to come to Coors. Injury rehabbers Jordan Lyles and Tyler Chatwood figure to slot directly into a rotation led by last year’s two best performers: veteran lefty Jorge De La Rosa and surprisingly productive righty Chad Bettis. There’s ample uncertainty not only within, but also behind that foursome, but there are plenty of options floating around. Certainly, Colorado will hope that at least one of its advanced younger arms — among them, Jon Gray, Eddie Butler, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, and Tyler Matzek (if he can overcome his anxiety issues) — will make some real strides in 2016.

While the pen has been bolstered with the three aforementioned additions, that doesn’t mean it’s an unquestioned strength. There are plenty of arms in camp, but not many of the depth pieces have demonstrated MLB track records. Beyond the core five noted above, the most experienced pitchers on hand are righties Christian Bergman and Gonzalez Germen and southpaw Chris Rusin (who has mostly worked as a starter). Scott Oberg threw nearly sixty frames in the majors last year, though the results were not promising, and Miguel Castro — a big part of the Tulo deal — could force his way into the picture. Of course, the club will be looking forward to the return of quality righty Adam Ottavino, who signed a multi-year pact while rehabbing from a UCL replacement and could make his way back by the middle of the year.

The biggest single uncertainty in the Colorado organization, though, may be shortstop Jose Reyes, who is set to stand trial after being charged with assaulting his wife over the offseason. There’s a real prospect of jail time, if not also immigration consequences, not to mention the near-certainty of a significant suspension. (Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman just took a thirty-game ban for an incident in which he was neither arrested nor charged.) Reyes has already been placed on administrative leave by commissioner Rob Manfred.

While the matter obviously carries far broader import than a typical player-contract issue, it has also created something of an odd situation from the team’s perspective. It’s an unquestioned loss on the field, as the 32-year-old had been a solid 3-WAR type of player in recent years before a tough 2015. Certainly, Reyes is much more established than potential replacements Cristhian Adames and Trevor Story, and if nothing else could in theory have generated some trade value. But from a broader perspective, it could well be that an extended absence will actually be a net positive for the Rockies. After all, he’s still owed $48MM — for the next two seasons and a buyout on his option — and the club will pocket any amount that he doesn’t earn due to his reprehensible alleged crimes.

Players like Adames and Story — and the above-mentioned Paulsen — are among the newer names that are likely to receive at least a look at some point in 2016. Behind the dish, relative newcomers like Dustin Garneau and Tom Murphy will fight for opportunities to back up (and, perhaps, eventually supplant) veteran Nick Hundley. But the real excitement on the young position player front — represented by outfielders David Dahl and Raimel Tapia, as well as third baseman Ryan McMahon — may be another year or so away.

Deal Of Note

Dealing away hitters for arms has long seemed an intriguing strategy for an organization that has had trouble not only in attracting free agent pitching, but in developing its own. (Indeed, Bridich discussed just that in his appearance on the MLBTR Podcast.) In that sense, then, the decision to sign Parra and ship out an incumbent option (Dickerson) for a pitcher (McGee) holds immediate interest.

Dickerson represents an intriguing but hardly flawless asset as a player. He’s a lightly-regarded fielder and was limited to just 65 games last season due to plantar fasciitis. There’s no question his value is lower than his batting line would suggest due to those considerations. That being said, the 26-year-old has done nothing but hit since cracking the bigs. Over 925 plate appearances, he owns a .299/.345/.534 slash with 39 home runs. While that obviously must be adjusted to account for Coors, it still works out to an excellent 125 OPS+ and 124 wRC+. The Rays will get four years of control over Dickerson, including one at the league minimum.

To be sure, the 29-year-old McGee is a top-tier reliever who has consistently turned in premium results. Since his first full season in 2012, he has provided 226 2/3 innings of 2.58 ERA pitching with an outstanding 11.4 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Like Dickerson, he has some limitations — most notably, the simple fact that he works from the pen rather than the rotation. McGee is controlled for just two more seasons — not at super-cheap rates (beginning with $4.8MM this year) — and carries a somewhat risky Tommy John profile given his time missed last year (and other factors).

Ultimately, perhaps, the main concern with the deal isn’t so much the overall value proposition as it is the side of the equation taken by the Rockies. McGee is one of the best pen southpaws in the game, but it’s unclear how many winnable games he’ll be handed by an underwhelming Colorado starting staff. And while he could certainly be flipped for even greater value than the Rox gave up to get him — assuming the team will be willing to entertain a mid-year sell-off — a half season at Coors Field probably isn’t an optimal platform for a trade.

All that being said, the decision on Dickerson can’t be understood in isolation. In a perfect world, a Colorado bat-for-arms scenario would probably involve sending out a few relatively expensive years of a hitter in exchange for a controllable starter. The 30-year-old Gonzalez (who is owed $37MM for two more seasons) represented a plausible centerpiece in such a swap, particularly after he finished with a huge second half. His uneven recent performance and concerning injury history make him a fairly risky asset for a club like the Rockies, despite his evident ability, and there seemed to be a decent bit of plausible demand.

But the club decided to hold onto CarGo rather than pursuing a strategy like that taken with regard to Tulowitzki. Of course, adding a strong young rotation piece for the veteran may or may not have been an achievable goal this winter, but in many respects his non-trade is an even more notable event than was the move to get McGee for Dickerson.

Overview

It’s certainly still possible that Gonzalez could change hands at the trade deadline, and he will be a closely-watched name if Colorado isn’t keeping up in the NL West come July. (The same holds true of McGee.) CarGo’s health will go a long way toward determining the club’s competitiveness as well as his trade value, of course, but the overall complexion of this offseason could change if there’s a future fallback plan in place.

The overall situation poses a difficult and ongoing balancing act for Bridich, who is trying to build for the future while maintaining some near-term competitiveness with a bottom-third payroll. It is ultimately difficult to criticize the Rockies too harshly for trying to put some pieces around players like Gonzalez and rising superstar Nolan Arenado, who along with solid regulars such as D.J. LeMahieu and Charlie Blackmon make for a nice core on the position-player side of the equation. Of course, the same rationale could have led the organization to hold onto Tulowitzki, who was instead cashed in for prospects and cost savings. And it’s fair to wonder if Colorado would have been better off taking bolder action this winter in one direction or the other after parting with its homegrown star.

At the end of the day, the bottom line seems the same as ever: unless and until the organization can entrench some quality starters at the major league level — whether or not a fully-committed rebuild is undertaken to make that possible — it may continue to confront the same kinds of hard-to-win dilemmas with regard to its best players.

With all of this said, we’ll open up critique of the club’s offseason to readers via poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…

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