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Archives for December 2017

Free Agent Profile: Lance Lynn

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Lance Lynn, a right-handed starting pitcher who turns 31 in May, has spent his entire career with the Cardinals since being drafted in 2008.  He’s one of the four best starting pitchers on the free agent market, and he’ll continue seeking a multiyear deal in the new year.

MLB: San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals

Pros/Strengths

Though Lynn missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he otherwise carries a reputation of durability.  In each of the pitcher’s other five seasons, he’s made at least 29 starts.  Lynn was one of only 12 pitchers to make 33 regular season starts in 2017, a claim only Ricky Nolasco can make among fellow free agents.

Lynn has delivered results throughout his big league career.  He’s never posted an ERA above 4.00 in a season, and carries a 3.38 career mark that he basically matched this year.  While Lynn lacks supporting stats to back up this year’s 3.43 ERA, consider this from Eno Sarris of FanGraphs:

“But not only is there an existing fastball-mixing skill that’s not currently captured by projections in his current arsenal, there’s potential for an emerging new pitch [a changeup] in there as well. Lynn’s an intriguing watch, and signing, for a guy who mostly throws fastballs.”

Some teams may look at Lynn as a pitcher with a track record of success and durability, plus some upside given the right tweaks.

Cons/Weaknesses

In attempting to make a post-Tommy John assessment of Lynn’s abilities, we only have his 186 1/3 innings this year.  He posted career-worsts in three key categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate.  His walk rate was second-worst among all qualified starters.  Using SIERA, it was a blend of skills that suggested a 4.85 ERA, much worse than his actual 3.43 mark.  Lynn benefited from a .244 batting average on balls in play, which is not considered a repeatable mark.  To his benefit in the future, Lynn’s 14.2% home run per flyball rate probably won’t stay that high.  Still, it just wasn’t an intriguing mix of skills this year.  A team signing Lynn has to hope or expect to bring back his prior abilities.  His second half, with even worse strikeout and walk rates, did not qualify as progress.

While Lynn should be able to take the ball every fifth day, he’s not likely to save a team’s bullpen.  Of 58 starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Lynn ranked 42nd with an average of 5.64 innings per start.

Lynn rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November, so he’ll come with a draft pick cost attached.

Background

Lynn was drafted 39th overall by the Cardinals in 2008 out of the University of Mississippi.  He was a supplemental pick for the loss of free agent reliever Troy Percival, who had inked an $8MM deal with the Rays.  Among those born in Indiana with at least 900 career innings pitched, Lynn ranks sixth with a .605 career winning percentage, behind Art Nehf.

Market

The Rangers, Brewers, and Orioles have been linked to Lynn to some degree in reports this offseason.  Other theoretical fits could include the Angels, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs, Phillies, and Mets.  There seems to be little momentum for a return to the Cardinals.  Lynn must contend with fellow free agent Alex Cobb, who is in a similar tier.   Plus, if the price somehow drops far enough on Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, those pitchers could interfere with Lynn’s market.  In fact, they may be currently holding it up.

Expected Contract

Back in October, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote that Lynn would pursue a deal like the five-year, $110MM pact signed by Jordan Zimmermann signed two years ago.  We went with a four-year, $56MM projection, which I’ll upgrade to four years and $60MM.  Normally at this point in the offseason, we’d call for reduced contracts, but it’s unclear whether that will happen given the sheer volume of unsigned quality free agents.

East Notes: Machado, Adonis Garcia, Marlins, Braves

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The Orioles “continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who doesn’t believe the club has a firm deadline on trade talks for their star infielder.  As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com wrote six days ago, “These incremental updates are white noise.”  Unfortunately, that’s all we’ve got right now!  Connolly’s best guess at that time: Machado will be traded before Opening Day.  For now, we’ll continue to wait for the hot stove to light.

Miguel Sano Accused Of Assault

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2:15pm: The Twins issued the following statement:

“Today the Minnesota Twins were made aware of allegations involving Miguel Sano at an offsite appearance during the 2015 season.  The Twins, along with Major League Baseball, take these allegations very seriously.  Until more information is gathered, the Twins will have no further comment.”

A short while later, Sano issued the following statement:

“I unequivocally deny the allegation made against me today — it never happened.  I have the utmost respect for women, especially those working in professional sports, and I deeply sympathize with anyone who has experienced sexual harassment. There is no place for it in our society.”

12:53pm: Photographer Betsy Bissen has accused Twins third baseman Miguel Sano of assault, in a post on social media this morning.  Bissen, a photographer who has covered Twins games and events, describes an incident in 2015 with Sano at an autograph signing.  Bissen says Sano recognized her from Twins games she worked as a photographer.  In her account, she describes how Sano flirted without reciprocation during the signing, and later “grabbed my wrist and made me go” with him, his agent, and her employer to an Apple Store.  Bissen further describes the incident as follows:

“We spend around a half hour inside that store before it was time for him and his agent to leave.  Their car was pulled around to a back hallway door.  As we got outside, the athlete decided he needed to use the restroom.  I asked my boss where it was and pointed to the door we just walked thru.  Apparently I was too close, and the athlete took that as a signal that I wanted him to grab me and try to take me back thru that door.

I pulled back as he held onto my wrist.  It hurt, how badly he was grasping at my wrist, but he wouldn’t let go.  I wasn’t going to give up my fight though.  He then leaned down and tried to kiss me, more than once.  Every time he did, I said no and kept pulling back.  I was in a squatted position with my wrist throbbing.  I screamed, no one came to help me.  He finally gave up after a solid ten mins of fighting to pull me thru that door.  I don’t even want to think of what he may have done, had he got me thru that door.  No, he didn’t rape me, but he sure did assault me.  When I said no, it should have been the end of it.  He should have respected that and stopped.  Instead, he hurt me and kept going. 

The next day, my body was sore all over from having to fight off this athlete that thought he was entitled to take advantage of me against my will.”

MLB and the players’ union agreed to a domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy in August 2015.  It seems likely that MLB will investigate this incident, which could result in a suspension for Sano.  It appears the Twins may just be learning about this incident.  This year’s #metoo movement seems to have compelled Bissen to share her story publicly.  I asked Bissen in a Twitter message whether she would cooperate with MLB if they contact her, and she replied, “If they do, I will cooperate. I honestly don’t want anything from this other than to feel free from what happened to me.”

Poll: Who Will Sign Jake Arrieta?

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Jake Arrieta is one of four major free agent starting pitchers who seems destined to sign in the new year.  Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has a long history of waiting out the market.  Here’s a list of free agent contracts signed by Boras clients in the last decade in January, February, or March:

Keep in mind, however, that not all of these contracts met expectations.  We ranked Arrieta fourth on our list, with a prediction of four years, $100MM that I’m guessing Boras would have said was way low.  I think Arrieta can still get a contract in that range.  But from which team?

The Cubs seem more interested in Yu Darvish than in bringing Arrieta back, but it’s reasonable to keep them in the mix for Jake.  Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has linked the Nationals to Arrieta, and that’s certainly a team that was involved on many of the above-listed Boras free agents.  A source speaking to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post called the team’s interest in Arrieta “tepid.”  Heyman has also named the Phillies, though Inquirer beat writer Matt Gelb doesn’t see that as likely either.  The Astros, Blue Jays, Rockies, Rangers, Brewers, Twins, and Cardinals have been linked as well.  Keep in mind that teams that might have shied away from huge November/December demands for Arrieta could re-enter the picture if the price gets more realistic in the new year.  Another factor is draft pick compensation.  For more info on that, check out my post about which draft picks each team would lose by signing a qualified free agent like Arrieta.

With that, I throw it out to you:

(Poll link for app users)

Levine On Asking Prices For Arrieta, Cobb

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Yesterday morning, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score published a report with a few interesting notes on free agent pitchers.  So far, the biggest free agent pitching signing has been the Cubs’ surprising $38MM deal for Tyler Chatwood, while Mike Minor, Jhoulys Chacin, Miles Mikolas, C.C. Sabathia, Mike Fiers, Doug Fister, and Yovani Gallardo are also off the board.

  • Six years and $160MM was said to be the starting point for Jake Arrieta in November, sources tell Levine.  Even in making these predictions in late October, we went with four years and $100MM for Arrieta.  Levine says Arrieta and fellow free agent Yu Darvish are currently looking for at least five-year deals.  The pair of righties were born 163 days apart back in 1986, and the case can be made that Darvish doesn’t deserve more years than Arrieta based on age.  Including Japan and the MLB postseason, Darvish has tallied 2,337 innings in his career, and he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015.  Including college and the MLB postseason, Arrieta is at 1,910 2/3.  Does this difference of 426 1/3 innings, thrown under many different stress levels, actually matter in terms of injury risk?  I have no idea, but the respective agents will make a few claims.  In the end, though, it’s just a bidding war.  Teams bid on both pitchers until the agents decide they’re unlikely to do better, and then a deal is made.
  • “It appears a four or five-year deal is expected” for free agent righty Alex Cobb, writes Levine.  Cobb had Tommy John surgery in May of 2015, and has just over 700 innings in his pro career.  A week ago, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote that Cobb “likely sees Mike Leake ($80 million, five years) as a comp and is thought to have been asking for about $20 million a year.”  However, Levine wrote yesterday that “Dan Horwits, Cobb’s agent, has denied a report that the Cobb camp was asking for $20 million annually.”  Though we went with four years and $48MM in our early November predictions, I’d certainly take the over on the average annual value in light of the Chatwood contract.  At the time, I was looking at Brandon McCarthy’s four-year, $48MM deal with the Dodgers from three years ago, but it’s fair to say the market has moved since then on this type of pitcher.
  • Here on December 28th, the top four starting pitchers remain unsigned: Darvish (Wasserman), Arrieta (Boras), Cobb (Beverly Hills Sports Council), and Lance Lynn (Excel Sports Management).  As the process drags into January, it will be interesting to see if any of the four have to settle for a bargain deal.  The current free agency game of chicken between teams and agents has no recent precedent.

When Bad Teams Sign Big Free Agent Deals

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The Phillies recently beat the market for first baseman Carlos Santana with a three-year, $60MM deal.  This is a team that won 66 games in 2017, and despite also adding a pair of veteran relievers, doesn’t seem like they’re making a full push to contend in 2018.  The Santana signing got me thinking about other recent free agent deals given out by teams that had been in a clear rebuild.  Here’s a look at how five recent examples turned out.  Note that this excludes something like the Red Sox signing Pablo Sandoval, since the team wasn’t tanking prior to that contract.

  • Coming off a 73-win season, the Cubs signed pitcher Jon Lester to a six-year, $155MM deal, the second-largest of the 2014-15 offseason.  While the 2014 Cubs were clearly tanking, it was the third year of that effort under the Theo Epstein regime.  The Lester signing, which took some convincing on the Cubs’ part, was the signature move of an offseason that also included the additions of Joe Maddon, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero, and Jason Hammel.  The timing of the Lester signing made sense, and the 2015 Cubs won 97 games and made it to the NLCS.
  • Coming off a 51-win season, the Astros signed pitcher Scott Feldman to a three-year, $30MM deal, the 14th-largest of the 2013-14 offseason.  The Astros made this move despite having a year left in their tanking process.  This was the offseason in which the Astros also acquired Dexter Fowler and several veteran relievers. The Feldman signing was one of those “respectability” type deals for a team not quite yet ready to win.  While it may have been unnecessary, it’s also the smallest on this list and didn’t end up hampering the Astros.
  • Coming off a 61-win season, the Cubs signed pitcher Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52MM deal, the sixth-largest of the 2012-13 offseason.  The Cubs were entering the second year of their rebuild, and they settled for Jackson after missing out on Anibal Sanchez.  It didn’t take long for regret to set in on this one, as Jackson was terrible for the Cubs from the get-go.  The Cubs likely saw Jackson as a high-floor pitcher who could take the ball 30 times and bring stability to their rotation, but do clearly rebuilding teams need to spend good money on that?
  • Coming off a 69-win season, the Nationals signed right fielder Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126MM deal, the second-largest of the 2009-10 offseason.  The Nationals would win 72 games in 2010, but then jumped to 80 wins in 2011 and 98 in 2012.  The team made the playoffs in 2012, ’14, ’16, and ’17, and Werth was a big factor in the team’s success in ’14.  Werth was good for just 3.0 WAR from 2011-12, but performed as a star-caliber player from 2013-14 with 9.7 WAR.  The Werth contract was widely panned at the time it was signed.  Though Werth concentrated most of his value into two of the seven seasons, the Nats didn’t come out that poorly overall.
  • Coming off a 62-win season, the Royals signed pitcher Gil Meche to a five-year, $55MM deal, the sixth-largest of the 2006-07 offseason.  The Meche contract was a real eyebrow-raiser at the time, but the righty was actually quite good for the first two years of the deal before injuries became a problem.  Meche is now best known for his stunning decision to walk away from the final year of that deal, forfeiting $12MM.  Though the case can be made that Meche was “worth” the money in his two good years, the team never contended during his tenure.  Would it have mattered if the 2008 Royals won 68 games instead of 72?

With the Santana signing, the Phillies can at least make the argument that they have a shot at contention in 2018.  The club currently projects for about 78 wins, but with a few more moves they can push into the range of the second Wild Card.  Teams like the Rockies, Giants, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Mets aren’t too far ahead of them (this assumes the Cardinals are the favorite for the first Wild Card).  On the other hand, the Padres currently project for about 73 wins, which is why their flirtation with Eric Hosmer makes little sense.  The club would likely waste the first year of a Hosmer deal on a losing season, plus Hosmer simply isn’t as good as Werth was.  I think, for the most part, teams don’t need to sign large free agent deals until they’re actually ready to contend.

The 20 Largest Contracts Signed By Pitchers After Tommy John Surgery

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If you match up unsigned pitchers in our MLB free agent tracker with Jon Roegele’s excellent running list of those who had Tommy John surgery, it appears that 33 of the 92 hurlers on the market have that famous elbow procedure in their history:

Al Alburquerque
Brett Anderson
John Axford
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Jorge de la Rosa
Jumbo Diaz
Brian Duensing
Scott Feldman
Neftali Feliz
Jaime Garcia
Miguel Gonzalez
A.J. Griffin
Jason Grilli
David Hernandez
Greg Holland
Drew Hutchison
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Lance Lynn
Dustin McGowan
Jason Motte
Peter Moylan
Eric O’Flaherty
Seung-hwan Oh
Zach Putnam
Bruce Rondon
Trevor Rosenthal
Anibal Sanchez
Shae Simmons
Drew Storen
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez

Meanwhile, a look at the 51 pitchers who have signed free agent contracts shows that 11 of them are Tommy John surgery survivors.  Tyler Chatwood, Jake McGee, and Pat Neshek all signed healthy contracts, with their procedures many years in the rearview.  In addition, Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda, who both had the surgery last July, set a new precedent by signing $10MM deals.  Smyly and Pineda have basically been written off for 2018, but the Cubs and Twins found a $10MM guarantee to be a worthy gamble in the hopes of full, effective 2019 seasons.

Of the 27 pitchers on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, 10 have had Tommy John surgery.  That includes four of the top 11 free agents of any type: Darvish, Lynn, Holland, and Cobb.  Oddly enough, each member of that quartet had Tommy John in 2015 within an eight-month span.  MLBTR ranked Darvish as the best available free agent this winter, and he’s vying to land the largest free agent contract in MLB history for a pitcher who previously had Tommy John surgery.  Here’s my attempt at the all-time top 20 contracts pitchers received post-TJS:

1.  Stephen Strasburg – $175MM (extension with Nationals May 2016)
2.  Jordan Zimmermann – $110MM (free agent contract with Tigers Nov 2015)
3.  Adam Wainwright – $97.5MM (extension with Cardinals Mar 2013)
4.  A.J. Burnett – $82.5MM (free agent contract with Yankees Dec 2008)
T-5.  Anibal Sanchez – $80MM (free agent contract with Tigers Dec 2012)
T-5.  Wei-Yin Chen – $80MM (free agent contract with Marlins Jan 2016)
7.  C.J. Wilson – $77.5MM (free agent contract with Angels Dec 2011)
8.  Danny Duffy – $65MM (extension with Royals Jan 2017)
9.  Mark Melancon – $62MM (free agent contract with Giants Dec 2016)
10.  A.J. Burnett – $55MM (free agent contract with Blue Jays Dec 2005)
11.  Ryan Dempster – $52MM (free agent contract with the Cubs Nov 2008)
12.  Rich Hill – $48MM (free agent contract with Dodgers Dec 2016)
T-13.  Francisco Liriano – $39MM (free agent contract with Pirates Dec 2014)
T-13.  Josh Johnson – $39MM (extension with Marlins Jan 2010)
15.  Tyler Chatwood – $38MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2017)
16.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – $36MM (contract with Dodgers involving posting system Dec 2012)
17.  Rafael Soriano – $35M (free agent contract with Yankees Jan 2011)
18.  Kerry Wood – $32.5MM (extension with Cubs Jan 2004)
19.  John Lackey – $32MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2015)
T-20.  Scott Feldman – $30MM (free agent contract with Astros Jan 2014)
T-20. John Smoltz – $30MM (free agent contract with Braves Dec 2001)

If you notice any errors or omissions, please contact us.

Transaction Retrospective: The First Aroldis Chapman Swap

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Tomorrow is the two-year anniversary of the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees. While Chapman is currently ensconced as New York’s closer, just as he was in the wake of the swap, the intervening period has seen quite a few twists and turns.

Aroldis Chapman

Six years before the trade, the Reds had landed Chapman as a free agent, staking a hefty $30.25MM bet on the power pitcher from Cuba. He proved the team wise, providing 319 innings of 2.17 ERA pitching and racking up 146 saves.

Entering the 2015-16 offseason, though, it seemed clear that it was time for both sides to move on. Chapman had just one year of control remaining, after all, and the Reds were coming off of a 64-win season. While the team struggled, Chapman was his typically dominant self, and seemed positioned to draw a big return.

In early December, it seemed Chapman was destined to join Kenley Jansen to form a terrifying one-two punch in Los Angeles. Precise details of the proposed Dodgers swap were never clear, though reportedly the Reds would not have added then-top L.A. prospects Julio Urias, Corey Seager, or Jose De Leon.

Just when it seemed a deal was imminent, though, a stunning off-field development intervened, as reports emerged that Chapman had been arrested earlier in the offseason for a troubling domestic incident. With Chapman’s reputation tarnished and a possible suspension looming, the Dodgers backed away and the market dried up.

Thus it was that the Yankees stepped into the void and placed a somewhat controversial bet on the game’s most intimidating reliever. Despite already carrying a fantastic late-inning duo of Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, the Yanks saw an opportunity to create a three-headed bullpen monster. They shipped four prospects — third baseman Eric Jagielo, second baseman Tony Renda, and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham — to Cincinnati to acquire Chapman.

The risk, really, was never on the field or even in the course of the investigation: Chapman was one of the surest relievers in baseball and had he received a sufficiently lengthy suspension, he’d have been eligible for another season of arbitration. Rather, the Yanks were gambling that Chapman would be valuable enough to warrant absorbing a significant public relations hit.

While he was never arrested or charged with a crime, Chapman was rightly criticized and ultimately suspended for what commissioner Rob Manfred determined to be violent actions directed toward his girlfriend. He eventually acknowledged he “should have exercised better judgment” but insisted he “did not in any way harm [his] girlfriend that evening.”

At the same time, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the Yankees benefited greatly from taking him on. After returning from a thirty-game ban, Chapman picked up right where he left off, throwing 31 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA pitching leading into the trade deadline. With the Yanks in a less-than-promising postseason position, the organization decided to market Chapman in the summer trade market, finding interest far more robust than had existed just months earlier.

Thus it was that the Yankees ended up with a foursome of players immensely more valuable than that which it had shipped to Cincinnati. New York sold the rights to rent Chapman for the remainder of 2016 to the Cubs, who obviously saw him as the final piece needed on a World Series-caliber roster.

Infielder Gleyber Torres was the undeniable headliner; he’s now seen as one of the game’s very best prospects. Though Rashad Crawford has yet to show much since coming to New York, outfielder Billy McKinney is now fresh off of a promising season in which he restored some of his former prospect luster. And the Yanks even came away with right-hander Adam Warren, who has provided 87 2/3 productive relief innings since the swap and is still under team control via arbitration for one more season.

Then, of course, there’s the fact that Chapman ended up returning to the Bronx after his brief stint with the Cubs. In the first year of his record-setting $86MM contract, the now-29-year-old Chapman wasn’t quite as devastating as usual — his 3.22 ERA was the second-highest mark of his career, and he has never before ended a season with a lower strikeout rate than his 12.3 K/9 — but he still averaged a triple-digit heater. While there are some signs of concern, including a plummeting swinging-strike rate, Chapman generally figures to remain one of baseball’s better closers for some time.

As for the Reds? Only Davis and Jagielo remain in the organization. As for the former, there’s certainly hope he’ll be a MLB contributor. Davis did make it up to the majors in 2017, though he struggled quite a bit and was less than dominant at the highest level of the minors. Jagielo, 25, struggled in his first attempt at Triple-A in 2017 and does not rate among the organization’s top thirty prospects, per MLB.com.

It remains a major disappointment for the Reds that they were unable to fully capitalize on Chapman. While some argued that the organization was foolish not to have carried him into the 2016 season rather than accepting a discounted return, that action would have come with its own significant risks. If there’s a silver lining, perhaps it’s that the Reds have since come to realize another successful investment in a high-powered Cuban reliever. Raisel Iglesias has now established himself as one of the game’s best young closers. For the time being, at least, it seems he’s staying put as the anchor of the Cincinnati bullpen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Market For Josh Harrison

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In an update on the market for Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review writes that a “handful” of organizations have at least reached out to gauge the asking price. Indeed, there’s some indication that he’s the Bucs’ most heavily pursued trade candidate.

Among the teams to have reached out are the Yankees, Mets, and Blue Jays. The Yanks were tied recently, albeit somewhat speculatively, to Harrison in relation to a potentially larger move involving Gerrit Cole. Interest from the latter two was reported a few weeks back (see here and here), though it’s notable to hear they’re still in pursuit.

Though further pursuers haven’t yet been identified, it isn’t difficult to imagine quite a few other clubs having interest. Harrison, after all, can play all over the diamond and would fit quite comfortably on a number of rosters.

His contract rights are also rather appealing. The 30-year-old will earn a reasonable $10MM in 2018 and can be controlled by successive club options. At $10.5MM and $11.5MM apiece, they won’t exactly come at a bargain rate, but the flexibility is plenty desirable in its own right.

Harrison likely won’t replicate his excellent 2014 campaign, but was plenty productive in 2017. He ended the year with a solid .272/.339/.432 batting line and career-best 16 home runs to go with a dozen steals. As usual, Harrison rated as a quality defender and baserunner, making him an approximately 3-WAR player despite only carrying league-average production at the plate.

At this point, it does not seem that any team has emerged as a clear favorite to acquire Harrison — or even that the Pirates are more likely than not to move him. While the organization could fill in from within should it deal Harrison, there’s also little question that he improves the team’s outlook for 2018. Just how inclined the Pirates will be to move him may hinge on whether they end up dealing Cole and/or long-time franchise face Andrew McCutchen.

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