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Ender Inciarte Hopes To Stay With Braves

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Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte is facing an uncertain future as the trade deadline approaches, having struggled this season and lost his place as a regular in the club’s lineup. Despite his downturn in playing time, Inciarte told Jeff Schultz of The Athletic (subscription link) that he has no desire to leave the Braves.

“I haven’t heard if I’m going to get traded or not,” said Inciarte, who added: “If you ask me, would I rather be somewhere else, the answer is I’d rather not. I love Atlanta. There’s not any other uniform I’d like to wear.”

Rookie Austin Riley swiped Inciarte’s starting role after the veteran went to the injured list with a lumbar strain May 15. Inciarte returned a week ago after a two-month absence, but he has only collected 10 plate appearances since then. The Braves have typically deployed an outfield consisting of Riley in left, Ronald Acuna Jr. in center (Inciarte’s usual position) and Nick Markakis in right since Inciarte went down.

The Braves’ new outfield (mostly Acuna) has notched good production, though Riley’s numbers have tanked since a sizzling start. In the aggregate, though, Riley’s .246/.298/.504 line with 16 home runs in 242 PA far outpaces the .205/.293/.303 slash and two HRs Inciarte has put up across 150 PA. Moreover, the 28-year-old Inciarte owns the majors’ second-lowest average exit velocity (78.3 mph), per Statcast, which doesn’t show much of a gap between his paltry .262 weighted on-base average and his .271 expected wOBA. Needless to say, those numbers don’t bode well for a turnaround.

It’s true that Inciarte has never been an offensive force, but he was almost a league-average hitter with the Diamondbacks and Braves from 2014-18. Combining that with stellar defense and quality base running was enough to make Inciarte a solid starter prior to this season, and it helped convince the Braves to ink him to a five-year, $30.525MM extension in advance of the 2017 campaign. Thanks to that deal, Inciarte’s playing this year on a $5MM salary and will earn a combined $15MM over the next two seasons ($7MM in 2020, $8MM in ’21). Not long ago, those looked like bargain figures for Inciarte, but his disastrous 2019 – along with lessening his importance to the Braves  – has surely done a number on his trade value.

Has This Really Been A Slow Trade Deadline?

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YES. That wasn’t hard. We hear complaints most every summer about a lack of action, but this time they’re legit. But just what kind of a lull are we talking about? How slow has it been?

[RELATED: A Buyer’s Guide To Stashing Depth At The Trade Deadline]

Teams have been quite miserly with swaps in the run-up to the 2019 deadline — a fact that’s all the more notable given the lack of an August trade period. We have seen Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce move on from the Mariners — Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is doing his part, even if his peers are still napping — but otherwise the chief deals have involved Andrew Cashner, Homer Bailey, and Martin Maldonado. Each of those players obviously has had success in the majors, but it’s fair to say that none is at anything close to his peak value.

Well, if we aren’t getting any juicy new deals this year, then we’ll just re-live deadlines past. As shown below, we’ve seen some rather significant swaps in the run-ups to each trade deadline over the past five years. Only the 2015 trade period rivals this year’s for a lack of scenery at this stage of the proceedings. There were ultimately some huge trades that year, but virtually all of them occurred between the early period and deadline day itself, which was rather quiet apart from one notable swap that has ultimately had a massive impact on the Mets organization.

[To help you on your trip down memory lane, I’ve included some useful links. The relevant year includes our full database entries from the start of June through to July 25th in each season. If you click the names of the headlining veteran player(s), you’ll go straight to our post for the relevant swap. Trades are ordered from most recent to earliest. We’re looking specifically at deals involving players that were seen as significant pieces for contenders at the time they were swapped, not just interesting trades. Thus, no further discussion of Marco Gonzales, Chris Taylor, and others that happened to be dealt in a deadline run-up.]

2018

Nate Eovaldi; Zach Britton; Jeurys Familia; Brad Hand; Manny Machado; Kelvin Herrera

2017

Anthony Swarzak; Eduardo Nunez; Trevor Cahill; Jaime Garcia; Sergio Romo; David Phelps; David Robertson/Todd Frazier/Tommy Kahnle; J.D. Martinez; Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson; Jose Quintana

2016

Aroldis Chapman; Mike Montgomery; Drew Pomeranz; Brad Ziegler; Bud Norris; Kelly Johnson; James Shields

2015

Kelly Johnson/Juan Uribe; Steve Cishek; Scott Kazmir; Alejandro De Aza; Mark Trumbo

2014

Kendrys Morales; Joakim Soria; Chase Headley; Huston Street; Brandon McCarthy; Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel; Jason Grilli/Ernesto Frieri

Latest On Felix Hernandez

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A right shoulder issue has prevented former Mariners superstar Felix Hernandez from taking the ball in the majors since May 11. As a result, the 33-year-old pending free agent isn’t a sure bet to suit up for the Mariners again, though he’s still holding out hope for a 2019 return, Greg Johns of MLB.com relays. Hernandez threw a 22-pitch live batting practice session Thursday and could begin a rehab assignment Sunday, but manager Scott Servais isn’t sure if he has progressed to that point, according to Johns.

If Hernandez does make it back to Seattle this year, the 2010 AL Cy Young winner and six-time All-Star realizes he’ll be auditioning just to land a 2020 opportunity somewhere.

“I need it,” Hernandez told Johns. “If I want to play next year, I need to go out there and pitch. I have to go out and compete. I’ve been thinking about next year, for sure. That’s why I need to go out there and show them I can pitch.”

A lack of availability was never a problem earlier in the career of Hernandez, who fired 190-plus innings each year from 2006 – his first full season – through 2015. Hernandez exceeded the 200-frame mark eight times during that span (every season from 2008-15) and combined for a sterling 3.13 ERA/3.21 FIP with 8.53 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and 50.4 fWAR over 2,178 innings. Hernandez looked like a potential Hall of Famer then, which convinced the Mariners to sign him to a seven-year, $175MM extension shortly before the 2013 season began. Unfortunately for Seattle, it hasn’t gotten great overall value out of its massive commitment to the franchise icon, who has faced injuries and a significant drop in performance over the past few seasons.

Hernandez declined into something akin to a back-end starter from 2016-17, a span in which he totaled 239 2/3 innings, and has statistically been one of the least effective rotation pieces in baseball since last season. Dating back to then, Hernandez has tossed 194 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA/5.23 FIP ball. Although he has mustered playable strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.36 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 47.5 GB%), Hernandez ranks last in ERA and FIP among 102 starters who have accumulated 180 or more innings over the past year-plus.

Considering his recent, injury-aided fall from grace, Hernandez certainly isn’t on the brink of a lucrative trip to free agency (a guaranteed contract isn’t even a sure thing). However, it’s fair to say most baseball fans – especially those in Seattle – would like to see King Felix return this season and potentially end his tremendous Mariners tenure on a high note.

Twins Interested In Daniel Hudson

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The Twins have already been connected to Toronto closer and prime trade chip Ken Giles, but they’re also interested in one of the Blue Jays’ less exciting relievers. Right-hander Daniel Hudson is on the Twins’ radar, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. They’re one of multiple teams eyeing the hard-throwing Hudson.

Unlike Giles, who’s under control through 2020, Hudson would be a rental for an acquiring team. He joined the Blue Jays for a guaranteed $1.5MM right before the season began. The well-traveled 32-year-old has since pitched to an excellent 2.80 ERA in 45 innings, though his 4.31 FIP, 4.57 SIERA, 5.36 xFIP and 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate – his lowest since 2012 – don’t inspire close to as much confidence. Along with those numbers, Hudson has logged 8.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, a 40.7 percent groundball rate and a 12.3 percent infield fly rate. Hudson’s above-average ability to induce pop-ups has helped him limit home runs, as he has surrendered just one per nine innings.

Homers also haven’t been a major problem this year for Twins relievers, who have yielded 1.25 per nine (good for 12th in the league). However, despite the Twins’ AL Central-leading 61-40 record, their bullpen has been something of a sore spot this year. That’s evidenced in part by the fact that the club has moved on from four relievers – Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker – since last week. That quartet combined for just over 100 innings out of Minnesota’s bullpen this season.

As for the relievers the Twins have on hand right now, only Taylor Rogers and Ryne Harper have truly thrived over a full season of work. Trevor May and Tyler Duffey have struck out upward of 10 batters per nine apiece, but the former has battled control issues and the latter has been susceptible to homers.

Giants Less Likely To Trade Bumgarner, Could Be Deadline Buyers

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9:41pm: It “does not appear” the Giants are targeting Boyd, Feinsand tweets. The San Francisco scout who watched Boyd’s start was on hand to advance scout the Phillies, whom the Giants play seven times from July 30 to Aug. 11, per Feinsand.

6:37pm: Once seen as one of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the July 31 deadline, Madison Bumgarner may now stay put entirely since the Giants’ improbable 17-4 record over their last 21 games has put the club firmly back into the NL wild card race.

Conflicting reports on Bumgarner’s status come from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman.  Feinsand heard from a source earlier today that “it’s all but certain” the Giants would hang onto Bumgarner through the trade deadline, while Schulman heard from a source of his own that no firm decision has been made by the front office about Bumgarner’s status, and that reports stating otherwise are “inaccurate.”

Quite a bit still seems to be in flux in the Bay Area, as if nothing else, the Giants certainly don’t seem to be the full-fledged deadline sellers that they appeared to be just a few weeks.  In fact, Feinsand writes that the Giants could even look to start adding players if the team has a successful series against the Padres over the weekend.  To this end, San Francisco “had a high-level scout” watching the most recent start of Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets.

Bumgarner’s recent form has been a major factor in the Giants’ hot streak, as the southpaw has a 2.00 ERA and 41 strikeouts against just six walks over his last six starts (36 innings).  To be clear, the odds are still against San Francisco’s chances at reaching the postseason, and with Bumgarner’s value perhaps at a peak, there is a definite argument to be made that trading Bumgarner for a large haul of prospects is the wiser long-term move for a Giants team that is short on minor league depth.  On the other hand, trading Bumgarner now would also be a strongly unpopular move amongst both the players and the fanbase, who have all been understandably energized by this 21-game surge.

It’s not surprising that the Giants front office is trying to stay as flexible as possible in weighing deals of Bumgarner, Will Smith, Tony Watson, and other major trade chips.  There’s little point in declaring oneself as a deadline buyer now, when a four-game losing streak would put San Francisco right back into sell mode.  As Schulman noted in follow-up tweets, the Giants could also look to deal from their bullpen surplus for a player who could help them win now.  This is less likely to be a rental player, but perhaps someone like Boyd, who is controlled through the 2022 season.

Joey Gallo To Miss At Least Four Weeks After Hamate Bone Surgery

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9:16pm:  Gallo is “likely” to miss six weeks, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.

5:38PM: Gallo underwent the surgery today and is expected to be sidelined for at least four weeks, Rangers executive VP of communications John Blake tweets.  Willie Calhoun has been called up to replace Gallo on the 25-man roster.

2:07PM: Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo will undergo surgery to fix a broken hamate bone in his right hand, The Athletic’s Levi Weaver reports (Twitter link).  Reports yesterday suggested that Gallo would likely require an injured list stint to recover from a nagging wrist injury.

Judging from the timelines associated to most players who have undergone hamate procedures, Gallo should miss roughly four-to-six weeks of time, though there’s obviously quite a bit of variance involved given the nature of hand injuries.  If Gallo’s recovery time is on the longer end of that spectrum, the rest of his season could very well be in doubt, as the Rangers might ultimately opt to just shut Gallo down in September rather than bring him back for two or three weeks of what will likely be meaningless games.

Even if Gallo is able to return, his latest injury is the second major interruption in what began as a huge breakout season for the 25-year-old.  Gallo was hitting .276/.421/.653 with 17 homers over his first 214 plate appearances of the season before an oblique sent him to the IL on June 2.  After returning in late June, Gallo posted only a .197/.305/.465 slash line over his next 83 PA, as he had reportedly been battling wrist issues for several weeks in the leadup to his broken hamate diagnosis.

While always a big slugger in his two previous seasons, Gallo’s big steps forward as an all-around hitter (he had only a .203 career batting average and .317 career OBP prior to 2019) and his above-average defensive grades as a center fielder and left fielder have to make the Rangers feel like they’ve found a new face of the franchise.  Gallo’s huge numbers were a big part of the Rangers’ surprisingly competitive performance over the first few months, and it isn’t any shock that the team’s recent slump has coincided with Gallo’s lack of production.  With Gallo now on the IL, attention will turn to what names Texas is likely to deal away prior to the July 31 trade deadline.

Latest On Noah Syndergaard, Edwin Diaz

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Mets starter Noah Syndergaard and closer Edwin Diaz have come up as potential trade candidates in advance of the July 31 deadline, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen may have trouble dealing either. Van Wagenen’s difficulty wouldn’t necessarily stem from trying to find a trade partner, but from attempting to sell Mets ownership on a return for one or both right-handers. Van Wagenen doesn’t even want to present a possible Syndergaard or Diaz trade to owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon unless he’s confident they’ll sign off on it, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

While the Mets are reportedly “fully intent” on trading Syndergaard, talks haven’t grown so serious that Van Wagenen has gone to the Wilpons yet, per Sherman, who adds moving Syndergaard or Diaz wouldn’t signify the beginning of a rebuild. Instead, the Mets could part with one or both with the intention of immediately improving their roster – one that has stumbled to a 47-55 record in 2019.

As a rookie GM, Van Wagenen inherited Syndergaard – a member of the organization since 2013 – but he’s just a few months from swinging a blockbuster trade that brought Diaz to New York. The goal in acquiring Diaz and expensive second baseman Robinson Cano from the Mariners last offseason was to push the Mets toward contention this year. But the deal hasn’t worked out at all for the Mets, who’ve gotten disappointing contributions from Diaz and Cano and have watched Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn – the top two prospects they gave up – impress with their new organization. The Mets are leery of risking similar embarrassment now in selling Syndergaard or Diaz, Sherman suggests.

Diaz hasn’t been nearly the pitcher he was a year ago, when he turned in a 1.96 ERA with 15.22 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 and an eye-popping 57 saves in 73 1/3 innings, but he remains valuable. Although Diaz has recorded a 4.81 ERA over 39 1/3 innings, a 3.50 FIP with 13.96 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and 97 mph velocity accompany that bloated figure. He’s also young (25), on a near-minimum salary this season and under control via arbitration for the next three years. It’s understandable the Mets would need a huge return to move him, though their hope of acquiring a comparable or better package for Diaz than they originally gave up for him is likely a pipe dream.

Meantime, it could be an even bigger challenge for Van Wagenen to talk the Wilpons into giving their blessing to a Syndergaard deal. There’s skepticism Fred Wilpon, in particular, wouldn’t “appreciate the quality” of a return for Syndergaard, writes Sherman. He points to what the Rays received last summer for Chris Archer (whom the Pirates got for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz) as a possible comparable for Syndergaard. However, even a valuable package along those lines may not be enough to convince the Wilpons that it would be OK for Van Wagenen to move the coveted 26-year-old hurler.

Padres, White Sox Interested In Nomar Mazara

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Reports yesterday from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News indicated that Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara was drawing interest from rival teams.  Grant mentioned that Mazara was getting looks from teams who weren’t necessarily contenders this season but were looking to contend in 2020, and today Grant specified that the Padres and White Sox were two of the clubs scouting Mazara.

San Diego is something of an odd fit for Mazara on paper, as the Padres already have multiple corner outfield options on hand.  Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have both performed very well this season, the struggling Wil Myers isn’t likely to be going anywhere due to his contract, Travis Jankowski and Josh Naylor are the two primary options in the minor leagues, and Franchy Cordero could also rejoin the mix if he gets healthy.

Then again, Padres GM A.J. Preller was the Rangers’ director of international scouting when Mazara was first signed to a then-record $5MM bonus by the Rangers back in 2011.  It wouldn’t at all be surprising if Preller feels a move to a new environment could help Mazara become a consistently productive big league player.  It’s also possible the Padres could create some space in the outfield with some trades for pitching over the next week, as the club has been linked to a long list of starting arms over the last several months.

Chicago has Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert ticketed as their respective left and center fielders of the future, though while Leury Garcia has been a useful player, the White Sox could prefer to land a player with more upside like Mazara.  Garcia has been one of several Sox players who have generated some trade interest as we approach the deadline, though Chicago isn’t considered to be too interested in moving players, as the club has their eye on contending for the AL Central in 2020.  Between Jimenez’s debut, breakout performances from Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada, and other young talents who are on the verge of the big leagues, the Pale Hose seem to be on the verge of properly ending their rebuild.  (Of course, they almost did so last winter in their push to sign Manny Machado, before losing him to the Padres.)

Twins Acquire Jeremy Bleich

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The Twins have acquired left-hander Jeremy Bleich from the Red Sox in exchange for cash considerations, as tweeted by Nate Rowan, the director of communications for the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate in Rochester.  Bleich will be assigned to Rochester.

Bleich signed a minors deal with Boston in April, and has posted an 0.71 ERA in 12 2/3 innings at low-A ball along with a 5.59 ERA over 19 1/3 frames for Triple-A Pawtucket.  These represent the latest stops in an 11-year pro career for Bleich, who was originally selected 44th overall by the Yankees in the 2008 draft.  Minnesota will be the seventh different organization Bleich has called home, and his long resume includes a cup of coffee in the majors, appearing in two games (and pitching a total of one-third of an inning) for the Athletics just last season.

The 32-year-old Bleich has a 3.87 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 2.08 K/BB rate over 641 1/3 career innings in the minors.  He has started 72 of his 271 career games, though the lefty has worked largely out of the bullpen for the last five years.

Dodgers Option Austin Barnes To Triple-A, Will D. Smith To Be Recalled

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The Dodgers have optioned catcher Austin Barnes to Triple-A, as originally reported by MLB.com’s official transactions page.  Will D. Smith will be called up to take Barnes’ roster spot prior to Friday’s game, according to Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times.

After a big performance down the stretch in 2017 that included usurping Yasmani Grandal’s at-bats in the postseason, it seemed like Barnes was on his way to becoming the Dodgers’ catcher of the future.  That progress was stalled after Barnes had only a .619 OPS in 238 PA in 2018, and he has continued to struggle this year, hitting .196/.288/.328 through 233 plate appearances.

With veteran Russell Martin also not hitting well, Los Angeles hasn’t received much offense from the catcher’s spot this year — that is, apart from Smith’s first two brief stints on the Dodgers’ roster.  Smith’s first exposure to Major League pitching saw him hit .269/.345/.654 with three homers in only 29 PA over nine games.  As we saw with Barnes himself in 2017, the Dodgers aren’t afraid to turn to a young player late in the season, and if Smith continues to hit, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he earns himself regular catching duty come October.

Picked 32nd overall in the 2016 draft, Smith was a top-100 prospect in the eyes of both Baseball Prospectus (59th) and Baseball America (95th) prior to the 2019 season.  He is already thought to have solid defense, and Smith has also hit .232/.334/.497 with 21 homers over 366 Triple-A plate appearances.

Catcher is an interesting long-term position for the Dodgers, as both Smith and top prospect Keibert Ruiz would seem to be the club’s top choices for the future, though L.A. also did its due diligence in exploring J.T. Realmuto’s availability before the All-Star was traded to the Phillies last offseason.  Smith and Ruiz are undoubtedly popular targets for teams looking to make deals with the Dodgers, yet given that Barnes may be falling out of favor, it may behoove the Dodgers to see exactly what they have in both Smith or Ruiz before deciding on who will be their catcher of the future.

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