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Cubs Interested In Shota Imanaga, “Have An Eye On” Corbin Burnes

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“The Cubs would like to acquire a starter” to add to their rotation depth, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers writes, with the idea that a new arm would help make up for the departure of Marcus Stroman.  To this end, the Cubs are exploring options on both the free agent and trade fronts, including Japanese southpaw Shota Imanaga and Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes.  As has been previously reported, Chicago is also in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s market, and of course the Cubs are one of the teams known to be interested in Shohei Ohtani, though Ohtani’s UCL surgery will keep him off the mound in 2024.

The Red Sox are the only other team publicly linked to Imanaga’s market thus far, and technically, his market has yet to officially open.  The Yokonama DeNA Baystars haven’t yet posted Imanaga for Major League teams, though the move is expected any day now.  Once Imanaga is posted, he’ll have 45 days to reach a deal with an MLB club, or else he’ll return to the Baystars for the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball season.

Imanaga has a long track record of success in NPB and on the international stage, including a 3.18 ERA and 25% strikeout rate over 1002 2/3 innings with the Baystars, two NPB All-Star nods, and a World Baseball Classic gold medal as part of Japan’s championship team in 2023.  MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected a five-year, $85MM deal for the left-hander, with Anthony Franco even predicting that Imanaga would land with the Cubs.

While $85MM isn’t small change, it does represent significantly less than Ohtani or Yamamoto will receive, making Imanaga an interesting backup plan for the Cubs (and other teams) if they don’t land one of the bigger names on the pitching market.  Five years/$85MM happens to be exactly what Chicago gave to another notable Japanese player in Seiya Suzuki two offseasons ago.  Though the Cubs did sign Dansby Swanson for $177MM last winter, Rogers notes that “under [president of baseball operations Jed] Hoyer and owner Tom Ricketts, the Cubs have been measured in their dealings with free agents.  Setting Ohtani aside, the organization isn’t the type that gets into bidding wars.”

Burnes’ price tag would just cover the 2024 season, as the former NL Cy Young Award winner is set for free agency next winter and is projected for a $15.1MM salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Of course, Burnes would come at a different cost than just money, as Chicago would have to give up a significant trade package to obtain Burnes from the Brewers.  This might be more of a due diligence situation than a true pursuit, as Rogers writes that the Cubs just “have an eye” on Burnes should Milwaukee make him available in the first place.

A Burnes trade would also be contingent on many other factors, including the larger hurdle of whether or not the Brewers would specifically be open to trading Burnes within the NL Central.  As Rogers notes, Craig Counsell just surprisingly left the Brewers to become the new manager in Wrigleyville, only adding to the rivalry between the two clubs — and quite possibly the unlikelihood of the two sides coming together on any sort of trade, let alone a major swap.

Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon are the Cubs’ current top three starters, with youngsters Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Jordan Wicks competing for the other two spots and veteran Drew Smyly on hand as either further depth or as a bullpen option.  On paper, this is already a surplus of arms, even before factoring in top prospect Cade Horton likely making his MLB debut in 2024, or Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian as further Triple-A depth.  However, adding another frontline starter would certainly solidify things for a Cubs team that wants to contend in 2024.  Signing Imanaga, for instance, might also give Chicago some flexibility in dealing from that young depth to address other needs.

Brewers, Yonny Hernández Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers and infielder Yonny Hernández are in agreement on a minor league deal that includes an invitation to Spring Training, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.

Hernández, 26 in May, spent the 2023 season with the Dodgers but was mostly kept in the minors, only getting into 14 major league contests. In 93 games at the Triple-A level, he hit .252/.395/.342. He walked in 18.4% of his plate appearances and struck out just 19.9% of the time but hit just four home runs, with his overall production translating into a wRC+ of 93. He also stole 17 bases but was caught 12 times. Defensively, he lined up at shortstop, second base and third base.

The Dodgers outrighted Hernández off their 40-man roster in September and he was able to elect free agency at season’s end, allowing him to sign this deal with the Brewers. He will likely serve a similar contact-hitting depth role with his new club. He has generally had strong walk rates and low strikeout rates throughout his time in the minors but his four homers this year brought his career minor league tally to just nine.

The Milwaukee infield has plenty of question marks right now. Shortstop Willy Adames is the most surefire everyday player, but he is a speculative trade candidate since he’s going into his final arbitration season and has a projected salary of $12.4MM, with that figure courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. First baseman Rowdy Tellez is a non-tender candidate after a rough 2023 season. Players like Brice Turang, Andruw Monasterio, Owen Miller and Jahmai Jones all produced subpar offense in the majors this past season.

The club has been actively trying to improve the depth lately, having claimed Vinny Capra off waivers from the Pirates, acquiring Oliver Dunn from the Phillies and now bringing Hernández aboard in a non-roster capacity. If Hernández is selected to the roster next year, he still has an option remaining and less than a year of service time.

Giants Interested In Matt Chapman

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The Giants are interested in free agent Matt Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that the Blue Jays “are making a big push to keep” the third baseman.

Chapman, 31 in April, has been a speculative fit for the Giants this offseason for a few reasons. For one thing, the club’s new manager Bob Melvin was the skipper in Oakland while Chapman was there. Beyond that, it’s widely believed that the Giants are planning to add a star player or two this winter after just missing on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa a year ago.

The Giants have also had some question marks around their defense in recent years, which happens to be Chapman’s specialty. After winning 107 games in 2021, the club fell to .500 in 2022, with glovework seeming to play a role in that. The club was collectively graded as being worth -53 Defensive Runs Saved that year, the worst mark in the majors, while their tally of -33 Outs Above Average was third worst. In 2023, they got the OAA into the top 10 but their DRS was still in the bottom third, which perhaps helped contribute to another underwhelming season.

Chapman has been one of the best defensive third basemen in the league during his career, having current counts of 92 DRS and 53 OAA since his 2017 debut. The former number is tops in the majors during that time frame while the latter number is second only to Nolan Arenado.

His bat has been a bit less consistent, particularly in 2023. He finished the season with a batting line of .240/.330/.424 and a wRC+ of 110, though in fairly uneven fashion, having high highs and low lows throughout the year. Some have framed his year as a scorching hot April followed by five tepid months, but Chapman was also quite strong in July, hitting .247/.402/.506 that month for a wRC+ of 154.

On August 13, when Chapman hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he was slashing .255/.346/.449 on the year for a wRC+ of 121, which was fairly in line with his 118 wRC+ from the year before. He tried playing through the finger issue, even going on the injured list for a time, but hit just .163/.250/.302 the rest of the way, diminishing his full season production.

Blaming the injury might be a charitable way to look at things but it stands to reason that the club that signs Chapman is probably going to be one that looks on him favorably and is more willing to overlook the final weeks of the 2023 campaign. His 28.4% strikeout rate for the year gives some pause but optimists can look to his 10.7% walk rate and bloody Statcast metrics. MLBTR predicted Chapman to get a contract of six years and $150MM.

The Giants used J.D. Davis as their primary third baseman in 2023 and he can be retained for one more season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $6.8MM in 2024. He had a fine season, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .248/.325/.413 for a wRC+ of 104. Hitting has always been his forte, with his defense more questionable. DRS continued to frown on him in 2023, giving him a grade of -11 for the year, pushing his career mark to -38. OAA gave him a +5 on the year but his career tally is still just -7.

Davis is a perfectly serviceable player at the hot corner but Chapman would clearly be an upgrade. If the Giants were able to get a deal done with Chapman, Davis would still have a bit of trade value given his modest salary, perhaps allowing the Giants to put him on the market and bolster their roster elsewhere.

Fitting Chapman onto the Jays’ roster is perhaps an easier fit, since he could just slot back into his old spot. The Jays are known to be looking for multiple position players in order to upgrade their lineup this winter, which could include a Chapman reunion. The club already offered him an extension at some point, though Chapman turned it down. But they are also looking into Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and others. Candelario, in particular, would likely be a backup plan for the event that they don’t retain Chapman. Candelario is also a third baseman but doesn’t have the same track record as Chapman, thus leading to a lesser contract projection of four years and $70MM.

As mentioned, the Giants are clearly looking for a significant upgrade this winter, having been connected to big names like Ohtani, Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and others. Chapman is on the list as well but they figure to be competing with the Jays and other clubs for many of the same targets.

Both clubs seem to have some powder dry for such pursuits. Roster Resource currently pegs the Giants’ payroll at $147MM next year. They have been in the $200MM range in the past, giving them plenty of room to work with. If their desire for star player additions this winter is as strong as suspected, perhaps they are willing to push that and therefore have even more room. The Jays are at $205MM for next year, per RR, but with a larger arbitration class and a few non-tenders could give them some more breathing space. Their competitive balance tax calculation is currently estimated at $216MM, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM. The Jays were willing to pay the tax last year club president/CEO Mark Shapiro has suggested the payroll situation should be in roughly similar range to 2023.

Brewers Discussing Brandon Woodruff Trades

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The Brewers are discussing right-hander Brandon Woodruff in trades with multiple clubs, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. With the non-tender deadline coming up at 7 pm Central tonight, it’s possible the club is looking to make a move before committing to Woodruff for the 2024 season.

With the deadline looming, Woodruff is arguably the most fascinating player to watch today. He has been an excellent pitcher for Milwaukee in recent years, having made 103 starts from 2019 to the present with a 2.93 earned run average. He struck out 30% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at just a 6.3% clip. The 15.1 wins above replacement he produced in that stretch, per FanGraphs, was 15th among all major league pitchers.

He can be retained for one more season via arbitration but the situation is complicated by a shoulder injury. The righty missed part of the 2023 campaign due to a subscapular strain in his right shoulder, making just 11 starts, and wasn’t able to appear in the playoffs. Last month, the club announced that he would require surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder, which would keep him out of action for most or perhaps all of 2024. Woodruff himself later addressed the situation and put a bit more of an optimistic spin on it, suggesting it’s possible he’s back by midseason, but he’s a real wild card at the moment.

Woodruff had a salary of $10.8MM in 2023 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a raise to $11.6MM next year. Although Woodruff is incredibly talented, that could be a lot of money for a low-spending club like the Brewers to give out for a guy who is such an unknown right now. On the positive end of things, Woodruff could return for the second half and be his old self, helping the team for a postseason push. That would be a huge boost to a rotation that currently is fronted by Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta with plenty of question marks beyond that, and Burnes himself is a trade candidate given that he also has just one year of expensive arb control remaining. If that were to come to pass, Woodruff would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, thus netting the Brewers an extra draft pick.

But it’s also possible that the injury timeline goes beyond expectations and Woodruff doesn’t come back, or perhaps he does return but he’s not as effective as before. In that case, justifying a qualifying offer would be harder and he could perhaps depart for nothing.

Given that possible downside, it’s possible the club might have to consider a strict non-tender. The club has had payrolls around $120-130MM in recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so committing almost 10% of their budget to a guy who might not pitch at all next year would certainly be risky. Other clubs with more financial wiggle room might have a greater appetite for taking that bet so it’s understandable that the Brewers would try to get a sense of what other options are available.

The deadline doesn’t necessarily mean that a trade has to happen today. The Brewers could agree to tender Woodruff a contract and then trade him at a later date. But the talks should at least give them some perspective on whether that’s an advisable path to take or not. If they don’t find any offers that are particularly appealing, then maybe they simply decide to bite the bullet on a non-tender. That would result in Woodruff departing for nothing and becoming a free agent, but they could at least use the saved money on upgrading the roster with some other player or players. With the deadline now just a few hours away, the situation should have more clarity by the time today is done.

Mets To Move Eric Chávez Back To Hitting Coach Role

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The Mets are planning to move Eric Chávez back to a hitting coach role, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Current hitting coach Jeremy Barnes isn’t going anywhere, with Chavez set to serve as a co-hitting coach alongside him.

Chávez, 46 next month, played in the majors from 1998 to 2014. The Mets hired him to be their hitting coach prior to the 2022 campaign but he got moved to bench coach duties in 2023, with Barnes taking over his previous title. The club has made some shifts to their dugout staff in recent months, with manager Buck Showalter having been fired and replaced by Carlos Mendoza. Amid those changes, it seems Chávez will go back to focusing on the hitting side of things.

It’s clear that Chávez is quite respected around the game, having been connected to managerial openings throughout the league in recent years. Just a few weeks ago, he was considered for the Padres’ managerial vacancy. That job is still open but it doesn’t appear Chávez will be taking it, instead sticking with the Mets.

Evaluating the impact one individual coach can be difficult when teams consist of dozens of players of varying skill levels and multiple staffers of different kinds, but Martino suggests the players on the team will be pleased, adding a second post that says Chávez was viewed favorably by the club for his work in 2022.

Marlins Sign Tristan Gray To Minors Contract

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The Marlins signed infielder Tristan Gray to a minor league deal, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald (X link) reports.  The Rays placed Gray on outright waivers earlier this month, and he became a free agent after clearing the waiver wire.

Gray had been a member of Tampa’s organization since February 2018, when the Rays dealt the infielder and Daniel Hudson to the Pirates for Corey Dickerson.  Something of a flier prospect at the time, Gray worked his way up the minor league ladder to Triple-A Durham, where he played for almost all of the 2021-23 seasons.  The exception to that extended Triple-A stint came this past September, when Gray made his MLB debut by appearing in two games for the Rays and homered and singled over five plate appearances.

Like many Rays products, Gray can play at multiple positions, with a lot of experience at every spot on the infield except catcher.  Most of Gray’s playing time has come at shortstop and third base, making him an interesting candidate for a bench job in Miami.  Jake Burger and Jon Berti are both right-handed hitters, so the left-handed hitting Gray could be a complement at either position or perhaps even a platoon partner with Berti depending on how the Marlins address the shortstop role.

Of course, new Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix is very familiar with Gray’s work due to Bendix’s past role as Tampa’s general manager, so it isn’t surprising that Miami has snapped up a potentially useful player who was a little expendable to the Rays.  Gray is considered to be a decent but unspectacular fielder at his various positions, while the Rays are deep in infield talent.  As well, Gray has shown quite a bit of power in the minors, but is something of a one-dimensional bat.

Gray has hit 71 homers over his 1300 career PA at the Triple-A level, hitting the 30-homer threshold in each of the last two seasons.  However, Gray’s career slash line in Durham was a modest .233/.301/.474, as he posted 406 strikeouts and didn’t often walk.  Gray turns 28 in March so he isn’t exactly still an up-and-comer, yet his power potential indicates that he could still possibly be a late bloomer and a more productive overall hitter if he can just make more consistent contact.

Dodgers Sign Eduardo Salazar To Minors Deal

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The Dodgers have signed Eduardo Salazar to a minor league contract, according to the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  The Reds outrighted Salazar off their 40-man roster back in August, and he elected minor league free agency after the season.

A member of the Cincinnati organization since 2017, Salazar is now changing teams for the first time in his professional career.  His stint with the Reds saw Salazar post a 4.38 ERA over 468 1/3 minor league innings, which includes a rough 9.09 ERA over 32 2/3 career frames at the Triple-A level.

However, 2023 saw Salazar pitch well at Double-A and then over his first few career Triple-A outings, which earned him his first look at the Major League level.  The righty ended up posting an 8.03 ERA in 12 1/3 relief innings for the Reds, with an even number of walks and strikeouts (five apiece) over his eight appearances.  Salazar’s production started to go south in Triple-A after his struggles in the big leagues, leading Cincinnati to make that outright assignment.

The 25-year-old Salazar had worked mostly as a starter before becoming a full-time reliever in 2023, though his low-strikeout, grounder-heavy approach doesn’t fit the preferred model for bullpen work.  Nonetheless, there’s no risk for the Dodgers in bringing Salazar aboard on a minors contract to see if he can unlock any new level of performance.  At worst, Salazar is a long relief option at Triple-A, and perhaps even in the majors if L.A. needs a fresh arm on short notice.

Latest On Cody Bellinger’s Market

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As the clear #2 position player available in this year’s free agent market, Cody Bellinger is a sensible fit for a handful of teams. The Yankees and Giants were the most common speculated suitors going into the offseason, and that buzz has continued in the first couple weeks.

Bellinger is on the Yankees’ radar as they look for one or two lefty-hitting outfielders. Meanwhile, San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has made clear the team is looking to upgrade its outfield defense, calling center field a priority. Each of Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Jesse Rogers of ESPN wrote yesterday that Bellinger is indeed on San Francisco’s radar.

While the links to both franchises are expected, it’s unclear how aggressively Bellinger’s incumbent team plans to pursue him. Heyman lists the Cubs alongside the Yankees and Giants as early favorites to land the two-time All-Star, while Rogers is more pessimistic, writing that the Cubs are unlikely to engage in a bidding war for the 28-year-old outfielder. Rogers unsurprisingly suggests that Chicago will be involved in the Shohei Ohtani pursuit, noting that some believe the Cubs are likelier to land the two-way star than they are to re-sign Bellinger. Ohtani is obviously the more desirable player, but is also likely to sign for at least double (quite likely more) the amount of guaranteed money.

At the same time, it’d be logical in some sense for the Cubs to allow Bellinger to move on. Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is viewed as the organization’s center fielder of the future, and he reached the majors late in 2023 after hitting .283/.365/.511 between the top two minor league levels. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are on multi-year commitments in the corner outfield. While Bellinger can play first base, much of his value is tied to his ability to play strong defense at the outfield’s most demanding position.

The left-handed hitter had a strong season at Wrigley Field. After his dismal 2021-22 numbers led to a non-tender with the Dodgers, Bellinger inked a $17.5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases through 556 trips to the plate. Bellinger cut his strikeouts to a personal-low 15.6% clip, although his batted ball metrics figure to give some teams pause. His 31.4% hard contact percentage only ranked in the 10th percentile among qualified hitters.

Bellinger rejected a qualifying offer after declining his end of a mutual option for 2024. Were the Cubs to let him walk, they’d land a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall). A signing team would have to forfeit draft and potentially international bonus space to add him.

The Opener: Non-Tender Deadline, Trades, Ohtani’s Dog

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Three things to watch around the baseball world as we head towards the weekend….

1. Non-tender deadline day:

One of the busiest days of the offseason calendar, today at 7pm CT is the deadline for teams to issue contracts to their arbitration-eligible players.  Several dozen new free agents will be created today as clubs pass on retaining some of their arb-eligibles, and we’re in for a flurry of other related moves — trades to clear roster space, and at least a few contract agreements with players and teams avoiding a future arbitration hearing.

Matt Swartz’s annual projection model for MLB Trade Rumors gives some idea about what these arb-eligible players are set to earn next season, and naturally several of the names on that list have already reached agreements, been released, designated for assignment, or traded in the six weeks since Matt originally published his projections.  For an idea of which players might be a little nervous today, here is MLBTR’s list of potential non-tender candidates.

2. The Braves and White Sox swing a deal:

In case you missed it late last night, the Braves and White Sox got things rolling on non-tender day moves by announcing an intriguing five-for-one trade.  Aaron Bummer is now part of the Atlanta bullpen, while the Sox picked up five players — right-hander Michael Soroka, left-hander Jared Shuster, infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake and minor league right-hander Riley Gowens.  In one fell swoop, Chicago added some badly-needed depth to its rotation and middle infield, while moving a reliever who has a notable injury and who posted a 6.79 ERA over 58 1/3 innings in 2023.  That said, Bummer’s advanced metrics (such as a 3.72 SIERA) were far more favorable to the southpaw’s performance, and the Braves clearly wanted to do some roster-pruning in advance of today’s non-tender deadline.  Lopez (projected $3.9MM) and Soroka ($3MM) are both eligible for arbitration, so Atlanta managed to get some value for the two players rather than non-tendering them for nothing.

3. Ohtani’s adorable dog:

If Shohei Ohtani wasn’t enough of a viral sensation already, he gained even more buzz during last night’s announcement of the AL MVP Award.  Winning unanimous MVP honors for the second time in your career is one thing, but when you win the award with your best canine friend by your side for a high-five (high-paw?), the internet is going to take notice.  Somewhere, front office staffers are quickly googling lists of the best dog parks in their cities, searching for any sort of edge in Ohtani’s free agent sweepstakes.

Braves Acquire Aaron Bummer In Six-Player Deal

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The Braves announced the acquisition of reliever Aaron Bummer from the White Sox for a five-player package. Chicago acquires starters Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster, middle infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake and minor league righty Riley Gowens. All but Gowens occupy spots on their teams’ 40-man rosters.

Bummer, a 30-year-old southpaw, had spent his entire career with the ChiSox. He developed from an unheralded 19th-round selection into one of the game’s more quietly excellent setup men. Bummer broke through in 2019, when he turned in a 2.13 ERA over 67 2/3 innings on the back of an eye-popping 72.1% grounder percentage.

The following February, Chicago signed Bummer to a long-term extension. Various injuries impacted him between 2020-22, as he spent time on the shelf with biceps and lat issues in his throwing arm and a right knee strain. Bummer remained effective when healthy, turning in a 2.92 ERA over that stretch.

That strong run prevention mark collapsed this past season. Bummer was tagged for nearly seven earned runs per nine over 58 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 50+ frames, only 12 had a higher ERA than his 6.79 mark. While that’ll make this a head-scratching move for many Atlanta fans, it’s clear the front office is placing a lot more stock in Bummer’s promising underlying indicators.

Bummer struck out an above-average 29.2% of batters faced this year. He has fanned just under 27% of opponents over the course of his career. He averaged 94.5 MPH on his sinker (a solid mark for a left-hander) and missed bats against hitters of either handedness. While he’s no longer posting ground-ball numbers reminiscent of peak Zach Britton, he kept the ball on the ground at a lofty 58.2% clip. That’s the 10th-highest rate among relievers who logged at least 50 innings.

Certainly, Bummer isn’t a flawless pitcher. While he tends to keep the ball down, he gives up a fair amount of hard contact. He has well below-average control and walked over 13% of opposing hitters this past season. While an elevated batting average on balls in play was a big reason for his disappointing ’23 campaign, he didn’t do himself many favors by handing out so many free passes.

The Braves clearly feel Bummer’s results will more closely match those he managed before this year. He joins A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek as potential high-leverage options from the left side. Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez are mid-late inning righties to help bridge the gap to closer Raisel Iglesias.

If Bummer returns to form, he could be a longer-term bullpen piece. He’ll make $5.5MM next season in the final guaranteed year of the aforementioned extension. He is guaranteed a $1.25MM buyout on a $7.25MM club option for 2025, while the deal also contains a $7.5MM team option (with a $1.25MM buyout) for the ’26 season.

It’s a consolidation trade for a win-now Atlanta team that can afford to target specific players it considers finishing touches to a championship-caliber roster. The White Sox are in the opposite position. Fresh off a 101-loss season, first-year general manager Chris Getz has set out to add depth to a team that has become far too top-heavy.

Trading a reliever for five players — four of whom are MLB options — is one way of doing so. While none of the four big leaguers is near the peak of their trade value, it’s easy to envision any of them playing a role on the 2024 White Sox from day one.

Soroka may be the most recognizable name. A former first-round pick and top prospect, he earned an All-Star nod and runner-up finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting in 2019. Soroka had pitched to a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts in his age-21 season. He looked like one of the sport’s brightest young pitching talents before his career was sidetracked by horrible injury luck.

The right-hander sustained successive tears of his right Achilles tendon nine months apart in 2020 and ’21. The injuries cost him almost two full seasons. While he returned to the mound in 2023, he struggled to a 6.40 ERA over seven big league outings. Soroka had quite a bit more success in Triple-A. Over 17 starts with their top affiliate in Gwinnett, he pitched to a 3.41 ERA with an above-average 25.9% strikeout rate. Forearm inflammation ended his season in September but is not expected to require surgery.

Soroka accrued MLB service time throughout his injury rehab. As a result, he has over five years of service and will be a free agent next winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3MM salary in his final season of arbitration. That made him a non-tender candidate for Atlanta, particularly since he can no longer be optioned to the minors. The White Sox are apparently willing to commit something in that range to see if he can recapture mid-rotation or better form.

Chicago has almost nothing in the way of rotation locks beyond Dylan Cease. Soroka now seems likely to get that opportunity. He could be joined by Shuster, a former first-round pick out of Wake Forest. The left-hander secured an Opening Day rotation spot with Atlanta a season ago. He struggled in his first MLB look, allowing a 5.81 ERA with a well below-average 13% strikeout rate over 52 2/3 innings.

Shuster had similarly discouraging numbers in Gwinnett. He was tagged for a 5.01 ERA through 16 starts with the Stripers. He struck out only 17.9% of hitters in Triple-A while walking 12.6% of opponents. While there aren’t many positives in Shuster’s 2023 performance, he’s only a year removed from ranking as one of the top pitchers in the Atlanta system. He’d posted a 3.29 ERA with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate in the minors in 2022, drawing praise for a potential plus changeup along the way.

Still just 25, Shuster could battle for a spot at the back of the Chicago rotation in Spring Training. He still has two option years remaining and has less than one year of MLB service. The Sox will hope he can put his tough debut behind him and reach the back-of-the-rotation projection of many prospect evaluators.

In some ways, Shewmake is a position player analogue of Shuster’s. He’s also a former first-round college draftee who’d generated some fanfare in Atlanta as recently as last spring. The Texas A&M product had a big Spring Training that led to some speculation he could open the season as the Braves’ starting shortstop. Atlanta rolled with veteran Orlando Arcia instead, a move that turned out well.

Not only did Arcia put together an All-Star season, Shewmake had a rough year in the minors. He hit .234/.298/.407 over 526 plate appearances for Gwinnett. He connected on 16 homers but hit only .264 on balls in play, keeping his on-base percentage down.

Scouts have questioned how much offensive upside the lefty-hitting Shewmake brings to the table. He’s soon to turn 26 and has only played two MLB games. Yet he’s a plus runner who went 27 of 28 in stolen base attempts in Triple-A. Shewmake can play either middle infield spot and has a pair of minor league options.

Adding middle infield talent was a necessity for Getz and his staff. The Sox had almost nothing at second base, relying on Lenyn Sosa and Romy González there. After buying out Tim Anderson, they were even lighter at shortstop. Shewmake could battle for a job, while Lopez seems likely to step into an everyday role at one of those positions.

The Sox are plenty familiar with Lopez from his days with the Royals. The 28-year-old has received elite grades for his defense at both middle infield spots and in more limited time at third base. It’s an all-glove profile, as Lopez has bottom-of-the-scale power. He’s a .228/.297/.284 hitter in 742 plate appearances over the past two seasons.

Lopez has between four and five years of service and is projected for a $3.9MM arbitration salary. That felt like a luxury for an Atlanta team that relies on Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Arcia and Austin Riley almost every day. It’s a more palatable sum for a team that’ll use Lopez as a bottom-of-the-lineup regular — as the Sox now seem positioned to do.

Rounding out the return is Gowens, a 24-year-old righty who was selected in the ninth round of this past summer’s draft. He pitched to a 6.30 ERA but struck out almost 28% of opponents over 12 starts during his junior year at Illinois. Baseball America praised the life on his fastball in his draft report, suggesting he could project as a reliever in pro ball.

It’s an unexpected trade made possible by the discrepancy in the organizations’ depth. Atlanta could afford to package some players who had fallen towards the back of the roster for a reliever with upside but legitimate question marks. Chicago buys low on a handful of players at positions of need, hoping that one or two can click and provide more value than they would have received out of Bummer.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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