MLBTR Poll: The NL East Favorite
The National League East is shaping up as one of baseball’s more competitive divisions in 2023. The defending champion Braves, Mets and Phillies have all made big moves to bolster their already strong rosters, while the Marlins will lean on a quality rotation to try and be competitive. The Nationals are, of course, in full rebuild mode and won’t be among the division’s best this year.
There’s still a chance of one or two significant moves to be made in this division. It’s been reported that Miami has made four of their starting pitchers available in trades, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ship out a starter to bring in an offensive upgrade, possibly an outfielder.
Nonetheless, let’s take a look at each team’s off-season to see how they stack up in this division heading into the new season (teams listed in last year’s standings order).
Atlanta Braves (101-61)
In: C Sean Murphy, LHP Lucas Luetge, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Eli White, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Joe Jimenez.
Out: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Darren O’Day, RHP Luke Jackson, OF Adam Duvall, C William Contreras, C Manny Pina.
The Braves big splash of the off-season was their trade for Murphy. In typical Braves fashion, they wasted little time in extending him as well, signing him to a six-year, $73MM pact to lock him in as their catcher of the future. The Braves weren’t struggling at catcher, but the arrival of Murphy is still an upgrade over Contreras and Pina, who were both shipped out in the deal. He’ll join a lineup that is largely the same as the one that won 101 games last season. The big hole remains at shortstop and in left field. Swanson departed for the Cubs in free agency, and the team could either rely on Orlando Arcia or rookie Vaughn Grissom to take over. Eddie Rosario was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2022, but the Braves are paying him $9MM this year and it seems likely he’ll be back as the starter in left. Luplow could get some opportunities to take the starting job on his new team, but he posted a wRC+ of just 78 last season.
In the rotation, Max Fried will be back to lead a starting corp that also features Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. A wretched run of Achilles injuries meant Mike Soroka has only made three starts in the past three seasons, but he’s back and if he can stay fit and return to his 2019 performance he gives the Braves a quality fifth option. The acquisitions of Luetge and Jimenez gives the Braves another couple of quality relief arms to cover the departure of Jansen in free agency.
All told it’s a quality roster that doesn’t appear to be weaker the 2022, but will it be enough to hold off other teams in the division?
New York Mets (101-61)
In: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Zach Greene, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kodai Senga, C Omar Narvaez, SS Danny Mendick, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham.
Out: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP, Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor May, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Mychal Givens, C James McCann.
The Mets effectively had to overhaul their rotation and bullpen this winter, after a series of major departures in both areas. In a fashion befitting the Steve Cohen-era Mets, they did so in expensive fashion. The Mets quickly offset the departures of deGrom, Bassitt and Walker by signing Verlander, Quintana and Senga to big deals and ensuring their rotation is at least as strong as last year. In the bullpen they re-signed Adam Ottavino, brought in David Robertson and made a series of smaller trades and waiver claims to rebuild their relief group.
Offensively, the Mets didn’t have too many moves to make. The big hole was in the outfield, but the team addressed that by bringing back Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year, $162MM deal. They came close to adding Carlos Correa, but that move broke down over the much-publicized medical concerns. Correa would’ve certainly been a boost to their offense, but they’re still in a good spot without him. They could probably still do with another outfielder, and it’s been reported that they’re interested in the remaining free agent options there (Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall etc).
The Mets led the East for the majority of 2022 and they’ll again be up there in ’23. Perhaps one more major move (like Correa) would’ve sealed them as division favorites, but they’re still in a very good spot as is.
Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)
In: LHP Gregory Soto, INF Kody Clemens, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Matt Strahm, SS Trea Turner, OF Jake Cave,
Out: OF Matt Vierling, INF Phil Maton, C Donny Sands, INF Jean Segura, RHP Noah Syndergaard, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP David Robertson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP Corey Knebel.
The Phillies went all the way to the World Series in 2022, but they still finished 14 games back of the Braves and Mets in the division so had a bit of work to do to try and close that gap going into this season. The addition of Turner gives them a superstar at the top of their lineup alongside Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and co. If youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can take a step forward at the plate this year they’ll have a much deeper lineup. They’ll hope they can do enough to stick with the Braves and Mets in the first half of the season, before welcoming back star Bryce Harper from injury at some stage mid-season.
On the pitching side of things, Walker slots in as a quality third option behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The bullpen lost a number of players this winter, but the additions of Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel to a group that already has Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado and Andrew Bellatti should make that area of the team a strength in season.
All told, the Phillies do look a better unit than they were to start 2022, but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll be enough to make up 14 games on the Braves and Mets – who certainly haven’t taken a step backwards themselves this winter.
Miami Marlins (69-93)
In: INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jean Segura, OF Jake Mangum, RHP JT Chargois, SS Xavier Edwards, RHP Johnny Cueto.
Out: SS Miguel Rojas, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham, 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Nick Neidert.
The Marlins have had a quiet off-season, but they could be one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, let alone the NL East, between now and the start of the season. That’s because they’ve reportedly made four of their starters – Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo – available in trades. That speculation has only intensified in the wake of them agreeing to a deal with veteran starter Johnny Cueto.
As such, it makes sense to start with a look at their rotation as things stand. Sandy Alcantara isn’t going anywhere and he’ll be back to lead the rotation after winning the Cy Young award in 2022. Beyond Alcantara will be Cueto and then some combination of the four previously mentioned starters. The fact team also has Sixto Sanchez returning as well as Braxton Garrett available shows how deep their rotation options are, but also that they could feasibly deal two starters and still be in a good position in the rotation. In any event, pitching should be a strength for the Marlins in 2023.
Presumably any trade of a starter would be to add a bat to their lineup. The signing of Segura likely filled out their infield, but the team could certainly do with an outfield upgrade. Bryan Reynolds is the highest profile option there, but other options on the could include Max Kepler or a free agent addition such as Pham or Duvall.
The Marlins do look capable of topping last year’s 69-win total as is, but it’d be interesting to see how they’d go with a deeper lineup, and whether or not a swing-for-the-fences-type move such as trading for Reynolds would propel them into the Wildcard conversation.
Washington Nationals (55-107)
In: OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Jeter Downs, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Stone Garrett, 3B Jeimer Candelario.
Out: 1B/DH Luke Voit, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Will Harris, 2B Cesar Hernandez, RHP Joe Ross, DH Nelson Cruz, LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Tommy Romero, RHP A.J. Alexy.
After eight-straight winning seasons between 2012-19 culminated in a championship in 2019, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode. They lost 107 games in 2022, and wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose a similar amount in 2023. While the new schedule calls for fewer divisional matchups, the Nats certainly won’t be helped by regularly playing in a division with a number of quality teams.
Offensively, the Nationals will look for contributions from youngsters CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz – two players they’ll hope to build their next playoff roster around. They’ve also brought in a couple of cheaper bounceback candidates in Smith and Candelario, and both could turn themselves into trade chips at the deadline. It’s a similar story on the pitching side, where they’ll hope Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli can show they can be long-term rotation pieces for the team.
While the Nationals are the clear favorite to prop up the group, it should be an interesting battle in the NL East, particularly with the Braves, Mets and Phillies. What do you think? Who will finish top of the East? Have your say in the poll below.
Who Will Win The NL East In 2023?
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Atlanta Braves 49% (6,766)
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New York Mets 29% (3,968)
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Philadelphia Phillies 18% (2,454)
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Washington Nationals 3% (361)
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Miami Marlins 2% (215)
Total votes: 13,764
Braves Sign Ty Tice To Minor League Deal
The Braves have signed right-hander Ty Tice to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com and Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. The righty will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Tice, 26, was a 16th round selection of the Blue Jays in the 2017 draft. The reliever worked his way up the minor league ladder quickly, spending 2019 in Double-A and Triple-A. He tossed 57 2/3 innings between the two levels with a 2.34 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate. His 11.6% walk rate was certainly concerning but he still posted good results overall.
There were no minor leagues in 2020 due to the pandemic but Tice was added to the Jays’ roster in November of that year to protect him from Rule 5 selection. He ended up donning many uniforms in 2021, as he shuffled between the majors and minors for the Jays, Braves and Diamondbacks, going to the latter two clubs on waiver claims. He posted a 4.50 ERA in five major league appearances but an unsightly 9.14 earned run mark in the minors. The D-Backs outrighted him off their roster late in 2021 and he spent 2022 with their Double-A team, posting a 6.45 ERA over 22 1/3 innings, striking out 24.3% of batters faced but walking 10.3% of them.
It’s been a rough couple of years but Tice is still young and will try to get back on track to provide the Braves with some non-roster depth. If he can earn a 40-man spot again, he still has a couple of option years and less than a year of MLB service time.
Braves Sign Ryder Jones To Minor League Deal
2:45pm: Jones will be attempting a move to the mound, a switch he recently announced on Instagram. Hat tip to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Jones has just a single inning pitched in affiliated ball but was a two-way player in high school.
1:34pm: The Braves have signed infielder Ryder Jones to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Jones will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training, though no official announcement has been made.
Jones, 29 in June, has 58 games of major league experience, all with the Giants. 53 of those were in 2017 and then five more the following year, but a dislocated knee ended that latter season. He hit just .184/.250/.316 in those seasons, was outrighted in 2019 and hasn’t been able to make it back to the big leagues since.
Ryder has previously had strong Triple-A results but struggled in 2022. After signing a minor league deal with the White Sox, he got into 67 games for the Charlotte Knights but produced a batting line of .196/.269/.318 while striking out in 32.6% of his plate appearances.
Jones will look to get back on track with his new club. If he does so, he can provide some infield depth, primarily at the corners. He did play three innings at second base last year and pitched an inning of mop-up duty, but otherwise lined up mostly at first and third base. Atlanta has Matt Olson and Austin Riley firmly cemented in those positions at the big league level but they don’t have many depth infielders on the 40-man. Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia could be battling for the shortstop job, with Braden Shewmake also on hand as another middle infielder. Jones gives them an option for the corners that has struggled in recent years but at least has big league experience. If he earns his way back onto the roster, he still has an option and less than one year of MLB service time.
MLB Lifts Ban On Former Braves GM John Coppolella
Major League Baseball has lifted its previous “lifetime” ban on former Braves general manager John Coppolella, reports Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Coppolella has spent the past five years on the league’s ineligible list in the wake of heavy sanctions for violating rules regarding both international free agency and the annual amateur draft. A league spokesperson tells Stark that Coppolella was reinstated “given the more than five years he spent on the ineligible list, the contrition he expressed and the other steps he took in response to this matter.”
Coppolella released his own statement:
“I want to thank Commissioner Manfred for granting my application for removal from the Ineligible List. I am deeply appreciative of so many people who have been involved in this process, including (executive vice president of legal and operations) Bryan Seeley and (senior vice president of investigations and deputy general counsel) Moira Weinberg at Major League Baseball. I deeply regret and accept accountability for my actions. I want to again apologize to the Atlanta Braves organization, Major League Baseball, its fans, and especially my family and friends. I am grateful for this decision and will strive each day to honor this opportunity.”
At the time of Coppolella’s original ban, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred announced that his investigation into the Braves’ dealings revealed the team underreported bonuses for five amateurs who were subject to international bonus pool restrictions. The Braves then overreported their bonus to an older, pool-exempt player and used that inflated bonus as a means of funneling additional money to the five amateurs in question.
Had the Braves reported the actual bonuses of the five amateurs in question, it’d have restricted them from signing an international amateur for more than $300K during either of the following two signing periods. Instead, the Braves were able to sign two of the top names on the international market a year later. The Braves also agreed to inflated signing bonuses with six amateurs represented by the agent for now-Athletics prospect Robert Puason, with the understanding that Puason would sign in Atlanta several years down the road. Atlanta also offered “extra-contractual compensation” to infielder Ji Hwan Bae (now with the Pirates) and “impermissible benefits” to an amateur draftee not named in Manfred’s statement but reported to be outfielder Drew Waters. You can read Manfred’s full statement on the matter here.
Ultimately, the Braves were stripped of 12 prospects, each of whom was immediately declared a free agent. Their deal with Bae, which had not been finalized at the time of the findings, was voided. The Braves also forfeited their third-round pick the in the subsequent amateur draft, were barred from signing an international amateur for more than $10K in the 2019-20 period, and were barred from signing the aforementioned Puason once he actually became a free agent.
It’s not clear at this time whether Coppolella will actually pursue a return to working in baseball, nor is it clear how many teams would be interested. The now-44-year-old Coppolella’s fingerprints are still on the Braves organization to this day, but there’d also surely be some PR implications for any team adding him to its baseball operations staff.
NL East Notes: Marlins, Escobar, Phillies, Soto, Braves Extensions
Jean Segura is the Marlins‘ biggest addition of the offseason, even though Miami is known to have looked into several other options before inking Segura to a two-year, $17MM contract. Some of those other free agent and trade targets are already off the board, and it appears as though signing Segura ends any chance of an Eduardo Escobar trade, as Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins had some talks with the Mets about a possible swap.
Timing is everything in trade negotiations, and it seems as though the Marlins checked in on Escobar after the Mets reached their 12-year, $315M agreement with Carlos Correa. Had the Correa deal been finalized fairly quickly, there would’ve been a greater chance of Escobar being moved, as the veteran infielder suddenly would’ve been out of a starting job in New York’s infield. However, the Mets’ issues with Correa’s physical have led to stalled negotiations in finalizing or perhaps even reworking the deal, to the point that other teams have reportedly re-entered the picture. As such, it isn’t surprising that the Mets have opted to hang onto Escobar, leaving the Marlins looking elsewhere for a more immediate lineup fix.
More from around the NL East…
- Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke with reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) about his club’s trade with the Tigers today. Moving three players was “not easy for us,” Dombrowski said, but the Phillies were tempted by the chance to add a quality, controllable reliever like Gregory Soto. The Phillies first talked Soto with the Tigers during the Winter Meetings, but negotiations seemed to cool until this past Thursday, when Dombrowski said that Detroit PBO Scott Harris called to revisit a Soto deal. In regards to the other players involved, Kody Clemens figures to take over one of the bench spots left by Nick Maton or Matt Vierling, and Dombrowski said the other spot could be filled by a future smaller acquisition, or perhaps by a player already in Philadelphia’s system.
- Sean Murphy‘s six-year, $73MM extension with the Braves made him the latest Atlanta player to sign a long-term deal within the last year, giving the Braves yet another key player locked up for the majority of the decade. It is a strategy that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has pursued “for the parameters that we have, for the market we have, for what we have to work with,” and also because of the players’ own buy-in. “These guys are choosing to stay here, and they don’t have to. I think that’s important, and it’s a credit to Atlanta and the organization across the board,” Anthopoulos told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano and other reporters earlier this week. “There’s risk to this, no doubt about it, when you lock yourself into this…But we do like the fact that guys can just worry about going out and playing. They don’t have to worry about making a certain salary, getting certain statistics and so on, and they know they’re going to be here.”
Braves Sign Yacksel Rios To Minor League Deal
The Braves have added right-hander Yacksel Rios on a minor league deal, according to his agent Gavin Kahn of Enter Sports Management. The deal includes an invite to big league spring training.
Rios, 29, spent the past year at Triple-A with the White Sox, but failed to make a big league appearance. At the top level of the minors he tossed 33 innings of 4.91 ERA ball, combining a 24.2% strikeout clip to an 18.4% walk rate.
Originally drafted in the 12the round in 2011 by the Phillies, Rios made his big league debut in 2017 and has seen a decent amount of time in the majors since, appearing in games for the Phillies, Pirates, Mariners and Red Sox. Over that time he’s compiled a 5.77 ERA over 96 2/3 innings. The control issues that plagued him in 2022 have generally been an issue throughout his career, and his 11.5% walk rate in the bigs is well above the league average of 8.6%. He’s generally fared better in the strikeout department, owning a career 21% punch-out clip, just a tick below the league average.
Rios throws a 97mph fastball, and combines that with a slider and splitter. He’ll join the Braves and provide them with a bit of relief pitching depth heading into the new season.
Braves Outright Hoy Park
The Braves announced that infielder Hoy Park has been outrighted to Triple-A Gwinnett. He had been designated for assignment last week.
Park, 27 in April, has been bouncing around the league over the past couple of seasons. Originally a Yankee farmhand, he got out to a blistering start in 2021. In 48 Triple-A games, he hit .327/.475/.567 for a wRC+ of 180. On the heels of that torrid stretch, he went to Pittsburgh in the deal that sent Clay Holmes to the Yankees.
Unfortunately, his performance since that deal has made that hot streak look like a mirage. He hit .195/.297/.336 in 45 games for the Pirates after the deal in 2021. In 2022, he spent most of his time in Triple-A, getting into 89 games and hitting just .225/.332/.354 for a wRC+ of 86. He also got into 23 big league games but slashed a meager .216/.276/.373, 79 wRC+.
The Pirates designated him for assignment in November and then flipped him to the Red Sox for prospect Inmer Lobo, only for Boston to send Park back into DFA limbo again a few weeks later. The Sox then flipped him to Atlanta for a player to be named later or cash considerations. Atlanta then designated him for assignment again, with Park having now cleared waivers.
Despite the tepid offense over the past season and a half, Park continues to get interest due to his defensive versatility and speed. He regularly posts double-digit steal totals and can play all three outfield slots as well as the three positions left of first base. If his bat can even take a little step forward to be average-ish, he could be a valuable contributor.
Orioles Claim Lewin Diaz, Designate Ryan O’Hearn For Assignment
The Orioles have claimed Lewin Diaz off waivers from the Braves and designated first baseman Ryan O’Hearn for assignment in a corresponding move, according to a team announcement.
It’s the second time this offseason that the O’s have claimed Diaz off waivers. It’s a bit surprising to see them designate O’Hearn as the corresponding move, given that he was only acquired from the Royals a couple days ago, though the O’s also surely expect that O’Hearn would accept an outright assignment if they can pass him through waivers, as rejecting it in favor of free agency would mean forfeiting his $1.4MM salary. That salary could even help the O’s get O’Hearn through waivers, at which point they’d be able to have both lefty-hitting first basemen in the organization as depth options.
To call this a tumultuous offseason for Diaz would be an understatement. He’s been designated for assignment by four different clubs and claimed off waivers four times — twice by the Orioles now. Although he’s just a .181/.227/.340 hitter in 343 Major League plate appearances, Diaz is a 26-year-old former top prospect with above-average power who is also arguably the best defensive first baseman in the Majors. It’s led teams to continue to pluck him off waivers — the O’s, Pirates and Braves have all done so — though the general hope by the claiming team seems to be that it can succeed at passing him through waivers and retaining him as a depth piece without committing a 40-man spot.
To this point, that hasn’t happened yet, which surely makes for a frustrating situation for the player. Diaz surely would prefer to know where he’ll be reporting to Spring Training and where he might call home next season, but the offseason carousel hasn’t allowed that to happen. Given that the O’s are still looking to make some additions to their 40-man roster, it’s eminently plausible that a subsequent move — be it the signing of a veteran pitcher or another waiver claim in the coming weeks — will again push Diaz into DFA limbo. Even if he makes it to Spring Training, Diaz is out of minor league options, so the Orioles will need to carry him on the Opening Day roster or once again attempt to pass him through waivers.
As for O’Hearn, he was traded from Kansas City to Baltimore following his first DFA, so he’s yet to even hit the waiver wire once. The 29-year-old turned heads as a rookie in 2018 when he debuted with a thunderous .262/.333/.597 batting line and a dozen homers in 170 plate appearances, but he’s never come close to those levels again. Over the past four seasons, O’Hearn is a .211/.282/.351 hitter who’s fanned in 26.9% of his plate appearances. His struggles are particularly pronounced against left-handed pitching, but he’s been sub-par against righties as well.
The Orioles’ hope in acquiring O’Hearn could simply be that a change of scenery and the league’s new limitations on infield shifts will help O’Hearn get more out of his pull-happy approach at the plate. He consistently rates among the league’s best in terms of exit velocity and hard contact — never more so than in 2022. This past season, even while posting an ugly .239/.290/.321 slash, O’Hearn averaged 92.1 mph off the bat and launched 48% of his batted balls at a velocity of at least 95 mph.
Baltimore has been seeking lefty hitters who can help out at first base throughout the offseason, and at least for the time being, they’ve snagged a pair of them — likely with the ultimate hope of stashing both in Triple-A without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to either.
Did The Astros Fix Will Smith?
Back on Aug. 1, when the Astros and Braves agreed to a swap of veteran pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith, the move was met with some confusion by Astros fans. Odorizzi hadn’t endeared himself with a rocky start to his tenure in Houston, nor his public gripes about the team’s usage of him (specifically, a quick hook even on effective days), but he’d vastly outperformed Smith to that point in the season.
At the time of the trade, Odorizzi had a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings, and while it was accompanied by a lackluster strikeout rate, that was partially offset by a strong walk rate. Odorizzi wasn’t a star by any means but had been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. Houston, however, had six options ahead of him on the depth chart and felt a need for some left-handed help in the ‘pen. Some ‘Stros fans took issue with the return of Smith, in particular, though — and understandably so. He’d posted a tepid 4.38 ERA to that point in the season, and the under-the-hood numbers were actually worse. Smith’s 24% strikeout rate was his lowest since moving the to the bullpen, and his 12.3% walk rate was a career-worst. He was averaging 1.70 homers per nine innings pitched, and metrics like FIP (5.22) and xFIP (4.76) didn’t view him favorably.
Part of the swap was surely the similarities in their 2022 contracts. Smith was owed the balance of a $13MM salary and had a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Odorizzi was earning just $5MM but had another $2.5MM of easily attainable incentives, plus a weighty $3.25MM buyout on a 2023 option. More at the heart of the issue, however, it seems the Astros viewed Smith as someone they could revitalize with some tweaks.
That’s indeed how things played out, though the changes were more subtle than glaring. Smith largely scrapped his curveball in Houston, dropping from an 11.9% usage rate to just 3.6%. He threw slightly fewer fastballs (41.8% in Atlanta, 39.1% with Houston) and upped the usage on his slider, throwing it at a career-high 52.1% of the time. With the ‘Stros, Smith also dropped both his vertical and horizontal release points, although not dramatically.
There was no major spike in spin rate — the spin on his four-seamer actually dipped slightly following the trade — and Smith didn’t begin throwing harder or unveil a new pitch that changed his fortunes. Rather, the subtle tweaks to his mechanics and a more acute focus on two pitches seemed to turn his fortunes. He located his slider more effectively (pre-trade, post-trade) and, crucially, avoided the heart of the plate far more often with his four-seamer (pre-trade, post-trade). Smith operated far more regularly and more effectively in the top-third of the strike zone — and just above it.
Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike rate jumped from an already-sharp 13.6% in Atlanta to a massive 17.3% with Houston. He was able to spot both pitches more effectively both on the fringes of the zone and within the zone; his first-pitch strike rate spiked from 63.2% with the Braves to 72.2% with the Astros. His walk rate plummeted from 12.3% to 4.4%.
Smith’s time with the Astros proved brief, but in two months with Houston he tossed 22 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 4.4% walk rate. After averaging 1.7 homers per nine frames with Atlanta, he allowed just two in 22 innings with Houston (0.82 HR/9). If anything, Smith was bizarrely unlucky on balls in play as an Astro; he yielded a sky-high .350 average on balls in play. Smith wasn’t on the Astros’ ALDS or ALCS roster — perhaps in part due to a heavily right-handed Yankees lineup — but was added to the World Series roster. He did not, however, pitch in a game. Houston declined his option at season’s end, favoring a $1MM buyout over a $13MM salary next season.
That outcome seemed obvious, but it’s hard to ignore the high note on which Smith ended the regular season. The lefty overwhelming improved his command, missed more bats, issued fewer walks and yielded fewer home runs. He still wasn’t used in many high-leverage spots by the Astros, but that’s in part due to their generally strong bullpen. Over his final 17 outings of the season, Smith pitched to a 2.35 ERA with an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in 15 1/3 innings.
However, because Smith was generally used in lower-leverage spots and because he didn’t pitch in the postseason, his turnaround in Houston flew largely under the radar. On the one hand, it’s arguably a damning reality that he was passed over in leverage situations and omitted from two of the Astros’ three postseason rosters. On the other hand, the results when he did pitch were excellent, and Houston had four other relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA (and five others with a FIP of 3.02 or better). Smith was a luxury but not someone they necessarily needed to acquire to plug into those leverage positions for lack of better options.
As was the case in the Houston bullpen, Smith is again somewhat lost in the shuffle of the offseason’s free-agent class. MLBTR ranked Taylor Rogers as the top lefty in this year’s class, and he indeed secured a three-year deal. Smith was never going to get another contract along those lines, but he’s perhaps closer to the next tier of lefties than one might expect when looking at his season-long numbers. Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore both had better seasons, and Chafin in particular seems like he should command a strong contract after his past couple years of performance. Smith’s end to the season, however, was quite strong, and if his next team gets more of the Houston version than the Atlanta version, he’ll likely be a bargain.
Braves Sign Joshua Fuentes To Minor League Deal
The Braves have added infielder Joshua Fuentes on a minor league deal, according to the MLB.com transactions log.
Fuentes, 30 in February, was signed by the Rockies as an amateur free agent back in 2014. He had a slow rise through the minor leagues, but showed a fair bit of promise in Triple-A, slashing .327/.354/.517 with 14 home runs. He was rewarded with a first big league call up the following year, hitting .218/.232/.400 across 56 plate appearances in 2019.
Over the next few seasons Fuentes would get a fair bit of exposure in the big leagues, putting together a combined .243/.269/.377 line with 12 home runs over 443 plate appearances between 2019-21. Fuentes would log most of his time at first and third base, but did see a little bit of time in the corner outfield spots as well. In a combined 472 1/3 innings at third he was worth 10 Defensive Runs Saved, while in 417 1/3 innings at first he was worth 9 DRS.
Fuentes elected free agency after the Rockies outrighted him at the end of the 2021 season. He latched on with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal for 2022, but after hitting just .165/.205/.200 in 112 plate appearances at Triple-A he was released. He signed on to play with Yucatan in Mexico for the rest of the year, and hit .299/.364/.576 with ten home runs in 162 plate appearances.
Fuentes will provide the Braves with a bit of corner infield depth in 2023. He has one minor league option remaining.