Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

Giants Claim Andrew Vasquez, Designate Steele Walker

By Mark Polishuk | August 17, 2022 at 1:34pm CDT

The Giants have claimed left-hander Andrew Vasquez off waivers from the Phillies. To create roster space, San Francisco has designated outfielder Steele Walker for assignment.

Vasquez was DFA’ed himself two days ago, and the southpaw will now be joining his third new organization since the start of August. The Blue Jays signed Vasquez just after the lockout ended, but he struggled to an 8.10 ERA in limited action (6 2/3 innings) in the big leagues, and Vasquez also missed over six weeks due to an ankle injury. Toronto designated Vasquez after the trade deadline and the Phillies put in a claim, and now Vasquez’s Philadelphia tenure will end after four appearances with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

The Giants have assigned Vasquez to their own Triple-A affiliate for now, and given San Francisco’s tendency to cycle through players on the back end of their roster, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vasquez either up in the majors soon or perhaps even back on the DFA treadmill in relatively short order. Vazquez has an 8.10 ERA over 13 1/3 career innings in the majors (21 total games with the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Twins from 2018-22) but he has some very solid numbers and a lot of strikeouts over his minor league career. His Triple-A resume consists of a 3.72 ERA over 87 innings, though with a high walk rate.

Walker made his MLB debut this season, appearing in five games with the Rangers before the Giants claimed him off waivers on August 7. The White Sox selected Walker in the second round of the 2018 draft, but he has a modest .257/.329/.416 over 1405 career PA in the minor leagues. Chicago dealt Walker to the Rangers for Nomar Mazara in 2019, and thus Walker (a native of Prospect, Texas) eventually got his first taste of the majors while playing for his hometown team.

Red Sox Activate Michael Wacha From 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 2:54pm CDT

2:54PM: The Sox officially reinstated Wacha from the IL. Left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.

9:05AM: The Red Sox will activate right-hander Michael Wacha from the 15-day injured list today, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe). Wacha will get the start for tonight’s game against the Yankees.

Right shoulder inflammation sent Wacha to the IL on July 5, so between this absence and a previous 15-day stint in May due to left intercostal irritation, Wacha has missed a good chunk of his first season with the Red Sox. When he has been able to pitch, the righty has been arguably Boston’s best hurler, with a 2.69 ERA over 70 1/3 innings.

This performance is tempered by a 4.56 SIERA, a .240 BABIP and a slate of unimpressive Statcast metrics, so some regression seems almost inevitable. However, in terms of pure bottom-line numbers, 2022 represents a very nice bounce-back for Wacha after he posted a 5.11 ERA in 285 1/3 innings in 2019-21. The Sox have already gotten a decent return on their one-year, $7MM investment in Wacha during the offseason, and if he can continue to defy the metrics, he could be a key arm for the Red Sox down the stretch.

The starting rotation has been a question mark for the Sox virtually all season, with injuries and/or inconsistency plaguing just about every pitcher on the roster. Chris Sale’s season-ending wrist surgery means that Boston won’t ever truly have its first-choice starting five all going at the same time, but Wacha’s return at least represents one more piece of the puzzle. Wacha joins Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Rich Hill, and Kutter Crawford in the rotation, with Josh Winckowski likely to return to bullpen work, and James Paxton tentatively set to make a September return after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2021.

GM Mike Elias: Orioles Will “Significantly Escalate The Payroll” During Offseason

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 1:59pm CDT

The Orioles have been one of the biggest stories of the 2022 season, emerging from years of rebuilding and mediocrity to post a 59-54 record and challenge for a wild card slot. Even if it looks like the O’s may have turned the corner already, the club definitely wants to make winning a habit going forward, and a payroll increase will come along with that planned return to contention.

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” GM Mike Elias said in an appearance on The Front Office Show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively. We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans. I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying. I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

In a sense, there was nowhere to go but up for Baltimore’s spending considering that the team’s Opening Day was just under $43.8MM. This was the lowest amount any team was spending on its active roster, marking the fourth straight season that the O’s have been at or near the very bottom of the payroll list. As Elias noted, several players (Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, Dillon Tate) are becoming arbitration-eligible for the first time, while Anthony Santander is due a raise for his third trip through the arb process.

Still, it counts as a positive for Baltimore fans that a rising arbitration price tag doesn’t automatically make a player into a trade candidate, given all of the cost-cutting that has gone on during Elias’ rebuild. And now, Elias seems poised to make some significant veteran additions for the first time in his three-plus seasons in charge of the front office.

At the end of the 2017 season, the Orioles carried a franchise record payroll of just under $167.5MM. It is probably safe to assume that the O’s won’t suddenly jump back to that number in a single offseason, so a Rangers-esque offseason splurge likely isn’t in the cards. There is also the lingering question of a reported dispute within the Orioles’ ownership group, and whatever impact that could potentially have over the franchise’s willingness to spend (or who is ultimately making any big-picture spending decisions).

If Elias’ past job in the Astros front office is any guide, the Orioles’ winter could be somewhat akin to what Houston did in the wake of the 2015 season. After six losing seasons and an extensive rebuild, the Astros won 86 games and the AL Wild Card game, catching many fans and pundits off-guard in the same way that the Orioles have surprised this year. However, the Astros had a busy offseason that still stopped short of any true blockbuster moves, perhaps owing to both a feeling that the 2015 club was a bit ahead of schedule, and because Houston still wanted to see what it really had in some highly-touted youngsters who had yet to break out or even arrive in the majors. (For instance, 2016 was Alex Bregman’s debut season.)

The same could be said of the current Orioles, considering that so many of their top prospects — Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser — haven’t made their MLB debuts, while the likes of DL Hall and Kyle Stowers have only been up for a cup of coffee. That leaves the O’s with some uncertainty over who will or won’t be cornerstone pieces, and yet the sheer depth of prospect talent definitely bodes well for the future. And of course, Adley Rutschman has hit the ground running in his rookie season and already looks like one of the sport’s best catchers.

As much as Elias is tied to Astros history as the team’s former assistant GM and scouting director, he also wasn’t calling the shots in that organization, whereas he is at the top of Baltimore’s front office pyramid. It will be interesting to see Elias’ approach now that he is building rather than rebuilding, and given this lack of history, we can’t rule out a pursuit of, say, a major free agent. Elias did already pass on one chance to add to the Orioles at the trade deadline, as even with the team in contention, the club still dealt Jorge Lopez to the Twins and Trey Mancini to the Astros.

Tigers Acquire Ricardo Sanchez From Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 12:40pm CDT

The Tigers and Phillies announced a minor league trade, with left-hander Ricardo Sanchez heading to Detroit in exchange for cash considerations. Because Sanchez has played the entire season on a minor league contract without spending any time on Philadelphia’s big league roster or big league injured list, he was eligible to be dealt after the August 2 trade deadline.

Sanchez has been assigned to Triple-A, but given how injuries have ravaged the Tigers’ pitching staff to an almost absurd extent, it might not be long before Sanchez gets his second crack in the big leagues. Sanchez made his MLB debut in 2020, throwing 5 1/3 innings over three games with the Cardinals. The southpaw remained in the St. Louis organization until this past March, when he was released and then quickly pivoted to a new minors deal with Philadelphia.

Injuries kept Sanchez off the mound entirely in 2021, but he returned to post a 4.79 ERA over 92 innings with the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate. Never a big strikeout pitcher during his eight seasons in the pros, Sanchez is inducing grounders roughly half the time, but a .337 BABIP hasn’t helped Sanchez keep runs off the board.

Originally signed as an international free agent by the Angels in 2013, Sanchez will now head to his sixth different Major League organization. Sanchez is only 25, so it’s perhaps inaccurate to say that the Tigers only view him as a shorter-term option, but Detroit is likely just looking for all of the depth it can find given the team’s lack of healthy arms.

Marlins Announce Six Roster Moves

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 11:47am CDT

The Marlins made a flurry of roster moves prior to today’s game, including the placement of right-hander Anthony Bender on the 15-day injured list due to a right elbow strain. Righty Tommy Nance was also optioned to Triple-A, right-hander A.J. Ladwig was designated for assignment, and right-hander Cole Sulser was moved to the 60-day IL. For new faces on Miami’s roster, the club selected the contracts of left-hander Andrew Nardi and right-hander Parker Bugg from Triple-A.

Something was clearly amiss with Bender yesterday, as he lasted only five pitches into a relief outing before having to leave the game. The severity of the elbow strain isn’t yet known, but given the timing on the baseball calendar, it is possible Bender’s season might be over even if he hasn’t suffered any notable structural damage to his elbow.

The righty already missed close to 10 weeks of the season due to a back problem, and was only just activated off the 60-day IL in early August. After a strong 2021 rookie season, Bender has still pitched well (3.26 ERA over 19 1/3 IP) this year, though his strikeouts are down and his health problems have cost him a lot of momentum. Tanner Scott has now emerged as the Marlins’ closer, but heading into the season, there was some thought that Bender could possibly assume the role, and he has the majority of save chances prior to his first injury.

Sulser was another closer candidate, except a right lat strain sent him to the IL in mid-June. The shift to the 60-man injured list is largely procedural, as the Marlins can now create 40-man roster space, and Sulser’s original timeline is still set from his initial June 13 placement date. Sulser has been rehabbing at Triple-A and might not be far away from a return.

Bugg and Nardi join the 40-man and 26-man rosters, and are now in line to make their Major League debuts. Bugg was a 27th-round pick for the Marlins in the 2016 draft, while Nardi was a 16th-round selection in 2019.

The 27-year-old Bugg has worked mostly as a reliever during his pro career, with a few opener-style starts. Now in his third season at Triple-A, Bugg is delivering good results with a 2.39 ERA in 37 2/3 innings, though his walk rate has been worryingly high. Over 131 2/3 innings at Triple-A, Bugg has a 13.64% walk rate.

Nardi is just a few days short of his 24th birthday, so this promotion counts as a very memorable early present. Control was also a problem for Nardi earlier in his career, but over the last two seasons has managed to both limit the walks and increase his strikeout totals. As a result, Nardi has now gone from A-ball in May 2021 all the way to the majors in just 15 months. MLB Pipeline ranks Nardi 30th on their list of Marlins prospects, giving 55 grades to his slider and his fastball (which usually sits in the 92-94mph range).

Since the Marlins are coming off a doubleheader with the Braves yesterday, the promotions of Bugg and Nardi give Miami a couple of fresh arms in the relief corps. This meant a quick departure for Ladwig, who was called up yesterday as the 27th man for the doubleheader. Ladwig’s brief stay did result in his first MLB appearance, as he tossed 3 1/3 innings against the World Series champs, allowing four runs. A longtime member of the Tigers organization, Ladwig signed with the Marlins in May after being released by Detroit.

Rangers Recall Yerry Rodriguez

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 11:26am CDT

The Rangers have called up right-hander Yerry Rodriguez to the majors for the first time. The 24-year-old will take the roster spot of left-hander Matt Moore, who was placed on the paternity list.

Even if it’s only for a cup of coffee in the majors while Moore is away, Rodriguez is now on pace to make his MLB debut. He has been a member of the Rangers’ 40-man roster since the 2020-21 offseason, and the former international signing is in his sixth season of pro ball.

MLB Pipeline ranks Rodriguez as the 24th-best prospect in the Texas farm system, citing his ” deceptive delivery with a flat approach angle and the athleticism to repeat it consistently.” His fastball and changeup both received 55 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale, though Pipeline’s scouting report notes that since Rodriguez moved to mostly full-time bullpen work this season, he has used his changeup less often than a slider, with shaky results.

Over 42 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year, Rodriguez has a 4.43 ERA and a 28.6% strikeout rate. The righty has been able to consistently generate strikeouts on his way up the minor league ladder, but his control has suddenly become an issue, with his walk rate spiking to 13.6% this year. That problem will surely have to be corrected if Rodriguez is going to be part of the conversation for a bullpen role in 2023, but the Texas coaching staff will get an opportunity for a first-hand look at the youngster in the coming days.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 10:15am CDT

Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter. Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact. Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation. So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future. It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons. In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play. Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates. However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency. Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York. It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain. Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings. Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market. Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers. San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy. Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past. When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern. There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team. Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings. A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact. Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract. For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances. Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved. The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

AL East Notes: Hall, Springer, Franco, Ramirez, Stanton

By Mark Polishuk | August 14, 2022 at 8:02am CDT

Orioles pitching prospect DL Hall made his Major League debut yesterday, allowing five runs over 3 2/3 innings in an 8-2 loss to the Rays. The outing will act as a cup of coffee for Hall for the time being, as the Orioles will send him back to Triple-A today and transition him to relief pitching. MASNSports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s view Hall as an intriguing bullpen option for this season, as a live arm with the potential to work multiple innings in a game.

The move also allows for the Orioles to limit Hall’s innings. With 81 1/3 total frames pitched in the majors and minors this season, Hall is already within sight of his career high of 94 1/3 innings pitched (in 2018 in A-ball). Given Hall’s injury history and the fact that he tossed only 31 2/3 IP last year, Baltimore is trying to both manage Hall’s health and capitalize on his short-term potential to help the Orioles’ surprising postseason bid.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

By Mark Polishuk | August 13, 2022 at 10:55pm CDT

The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter. When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft. If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class. As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players. Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM. Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization. For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range. (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.) While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract. If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected. Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign. Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals. However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27. Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout). Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again. Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career. Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary. But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again. Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April. He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer. However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal. On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal. From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances. That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season. Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well. Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021. With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer. Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31. Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range. Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

Astros Reinstate Lance McCullers Jr. From 60-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | August 13, 2022 at 2:17pm CDT

Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. has been activated from the 60-day injured list to start the Astros’ game against the Athletics today. In corresponding moves, outfielder Michael Brantley (who just underwent season-ending shoulder surgery) was moved to the 60-day IL, while right-hander Seth Martinez was optioned to Triple-A.

McCullers will be taking the hill for the first time since October 12, when he tossed four innings in Game 4 of the ALDS — a 10-2 win that clinched Houston’s series win over the White Sox. A flexor tendon forearm strain then sidelined McCullers for the remainder of the Astros’ postseason run and for much of this 2022 season, as a setback during the rehab process delayed the right-hander from making his debut until today.

A healthy McCullers represents a nice late-season boost to a rotation that is already arguably baseball’s best. McCullers’ impending return allowed Houston the luxury of moving Jake Odorizzi at the trade deadline, as the Astros can slot McCullers right into a six-man rotation that also includes Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier. That pitching depth also extends to the bullpen, as on most teams, Martinez’s 2.48 ERA in 32 2/3 innings would merit a larger role, not a demotion to the minors.

Even amidst all these other quality arms, McCullers can certainly factor into the Astros’ starting plans for this year’s postseason, as the Astros again look to make a deep October run. McCullers has a 3.35 ERA over his last 217 1/3 innings in the regular season, since returning from the Tommy John surgery that erased his entire 2019 campaign. In 2021, McCullers factored into Cy Young Award voting for the first time, finishing seventh on the ballot.

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