The Blue Jays reached a new spending frontier, and reshaped a good chunk of their starting lineup.  Is it enough to bring the Jays some postseason success?

Major League Signings

• Chris Bassitt, SP: Three years, $63MM
• Brandon Belt, 1B/DH: One year, $9.3MM
• Kevin Kiermaier, OF: One year, $9MM
• Chad Green, RP: Two years, $8.5MM (Blue Jays have three-year, $27MM club option for 2024-26; if this option is declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both sides decline options, Blue Jays then have a two-year, $21MM club option for 2024-25)
• Jay Jackson, RP: One year, $1.5MM split contract (only if Jackson spends time at MLB level)

2023 spending: $41.55MM
Total spending: $89.8MM

Option Decisions

• Exercised $3MM club option on RP Anthony Bass
• Declined $12MM mutual option on OF Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8MM buyout paid by Red Sox)

Trades & Claims

• Acquired OF Daulton Varsho from Diamondbacks for C Gabriel Moreno and OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
• Acquired RP Erik Swanson and SP prospect Adam Macko from Mariners for OF Teoscar Hernandez
• Acquired SP/RP Zach Thompson from Pirates for OF prospect Chavez Young

Notable Minor League Signings

• Drew Hutchison, Paul Fry, Casey Lawrence, Rob Brantly, Luke Bard, Junior Fernandez, Wynton Bernard, Vinny Capra, Julian Fernandez

Extensions

• Bo Bichette, SS: Three years, $33.6MM

Notable Losses

• Gurriel, Hernandez, Bradley, Ross Stripling, Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, Anthony Kay, Julian Merryweather, Tayler Saucedo, Matt Gage, David Phelps (retired)

Teoscar Hernandez led the Blue Jays in plate appearances from 2018-22, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finished fourth on that list.  So when GM Ross Atkins said in October that the Jays were less likely to change the team’s core during the winter, that ended up not quite being the case, though it’s fair to argue that Atkins perhaps didn’t consider two outfielders slated for free agency in the 2023-24 offseason as true “core” pieces.

Phrasing quibbles aside, Toronto leaves the offseason with a lineup that has considerably more balance between left-handed and right-handed batters, more speed, and more defense than last year’s squad.  On paper, the Jays look better prepared for both the reconfigured outfield dimensions of their home ballpark, and for a 2023 season that will put a broader emphasis on speed and glovework due to the new rules.

The Jays got right to business in revamping their outfield mix, as Hernandez was dealt to the Mariners in one of the offseason’s most notable early moves.  The trade brought the Blue Jays a young arm for the future in Adam Macko, and the more immediate help that Erik Swanson can provide to the bullpen.  Swanson has pitched well for the last two seasons, particularly a 2022 campaign that saw him post a 1.88 ERA and mostly-elite secondary numbers across the board in 53 2/3 relief innings for Seattle.

With the aftershock of the Blue Jays’ bullpen collapse in Game 2 of the wild card series (against the Mariners, ironically) still lingering, it was hard to argue that Toronto didn’t need to bolster its relief corps in some fashion.  Swanson will bring some needed strikeouts to the bullpen, and the Jays figure to use him in many types of high-leverage situations, including some traditional set-up innings in front of closer Jordan Romano.

Hernandez’s departure set the table for the next big outfield move, which also saw the Blue Jays finally dip into their significant amount of catching depth.  It isn’t often that a club moves a consensus top prospect like Gabriel Moreno, yet since Toronto also had Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen lined up behind the plate, all three backstops have been prominently featured in trade rumors for the better part of a year.

The Jays were willing to wait a little longer to finally trade a catcher, as their swap with the Diamondbacks didn’t come together until Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez were already off the free-agent catching market, and after the A’s had moved another major catching trade chip in Sean Murphy.  Arizona was also a team with a notable trade surplus, as its group of left-handed hitting outfielders attracted many teams besides just Toronto.  But, with the D’Backs needing catching and the Jays needed left-handed hitting outfield help, the fit was perfect.  Gurriel’s inclusion along with Moreno finally got the Diamondbacks to budge on Varsho, which was an acceptable result for the Blue Jays since Gurriel was already looking like an expendable asset.

The 26-year-old Varsho is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season, giving the Blue Jays a long-term asset that they see as an outfield cornerstone.  Only 28 players in baseball had a higher fWAR in 2022 than Varsho’s 4.6 number, as he combined excellent defense with strong baserunning and above-average (106 wRC+) offensive production in the form of 27 home runs and .235/.302/.443 slash line in 592 plate appearances.

There is naturally still room for improvement in Varsho’s numbers, particularly when it comes to drawing walks and making contact (Varsho struck out 145 times in 2022).  The Blue Jays are hoping that last season might represent Varsho’s floor as an offensive player, and even if he does have a similar year at the plate, Toronto isn’t going to mind another all-around performance in the 4.6 fWAR range.

Before the trade with Arizona, the Jays had already improved their outfield defense by signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM free agent contract.  Kiermaier has been one of baseball’s best defensive players for the better part of the decade, and after being a frequent thorn in Toronto’s side as a member of the Rays, Kiermaier now moves elsewhere in the AL East after Tampa Bay declined their $13MM club option on his services for 2022.

Signing Kiermaier carries some obvious risk, considering that he has been an average offensive player at best during his career, and (most pressingly) a very frequent visitor to the injured list.  Last season was no different, as Kiermaier’s 2022 campaign ended in July when he had to undergo surgery to repair a torn hip labrum.  In theory, this surgery might finally correct what has long been a lingering issue for Kiermaier, yet it is also fair to wonder what Kiermaier has left in the tank as he enters his age-33 season and is coming off yet another substantial injury layoff.

Should Kiermaier again need to miss time, Toronto has a ready-made center field replacement in Varsho, or George Springer might even move back to his old position from his new right field spot.  Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio will figure into the corner outfield picture, with rookie Nathan Lukes also serving in a backup outfield capacity.

The result is a vastly superior defensive outfield, as the Varsho/Kiermaier/Springer alignment from left to right is streets ahead of the Gurriel/Springer/Hernandez trio that Toronto often used in 2022.  Even from a depth perspective, the Jays are in a better position than last year, when injuries to the starters meant a lot of playing time for such replacement-level outfielders as Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, or Jackie Bradley Jr.  Losing Hernandez’s bat may weaken the lineup, or maybe not if Varsho takes a step forward, or if Springer’s move to a less-strenuous outfield position helps him stay on the field more often.

With two left-handed bats in Varsho and Kiermaier added to the lineup, the Blue Jays added a third by signing longtime Giants first baseman Brandon Belt as the primary designated hitter.  Health is again a red flag here, as Belt has battled knee problems for years and underwent surgery on his right knee back in September.  Though those issues surely contributed to Belt’s subpar numbers in 2022, he was posting monster numbers when healthy in 2020-21, hitting .285/.393/.595 with 38 homers in 560 PA over those two seasons.

As with Kiermaier, the Jays have made preparations in case Belt has to miss more time, as any of Toronto’s right-handed bats could get a DH day whenever a left-handed starter is on the mound.  Belt said he felt reinvigorated in the aftermath of his knee surgery, so between good health, the move to a more hitter-friendly park (with more tempting dimensions for left-handed hitters), and less of a worry about defensive shifts, there is reason to think Belt can bounce back from his tough 2022 season.

These new faces will augment the team’s core group of Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and the now-solidified catching tandem of Kirk and Jansen.  Second base remains a bit of a question mark, but the Blue Jays seem confident that the combination of Merrifield, Biggio, and Santiago Espinal can be productive.  Toronto wasn’t really linked to many notable infield upgrades on the rumor mill this winter, with the exception of agent Scott Boras stating that the Jays “were really after” his client Xander Bogaerts before Bogaerts signed with the Padres.

Exploring big-name acquisitions has become routine for the Toronto front office in the last few years, with Atkins and company at least checking in on a wide array of players as a matter of due diligence.  The 2022-23 offseason was no exception, as the Blue Jays reportedly had varying degrees of interest in such players as Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Rodon, Cody Bellinger, Johnny Cueto, Michael Brantley, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Andrew Heaney, Masataka Yoshida, Kyle Gibson, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo, Robert Suarez, Alex Reyes, and their own most notable free agent in Ross Stripling.

Though some of those signings may have more realistic possibilities than others, the fact that the Blue Jays are able to consider basically any player speaks to the team’s greater financial flexibility.  After spending a club-record $171MM on payroll in 2022, the Jays have boosted that number even further with approximately $211.7MM committed to salaries this season.  This translates to a luxury tax number of roughly $250.5MM, putting the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time and quite close to the secondary Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $253MM.

Big-spending teams like the Yankees and Padres have slightly curbed their spending to stay under particular tiers of tax penalties, and it isn’t known if the Blue Jays might similarly see the second CBT line as an upper limit on their spending.  Still, given how aggressive the Jays have been, it is hard to imagine that the club wouldn’t be willing to surpass the $253MM line if it meant picking up a necessary addition at the trade deadline, for instance.  Exceeding the next tier ($273MM) might be a different story since the Jays would then see their top draft choice in 2023 knocked back ten places in the draft order.  But, the CBT’s impact on other non-financial penalties (such as the draft pick cost and compensation for free agents who reject qualifying offers) is the same for the Blue Jays if their tax figure is anywhere from $233MM to a dollar below the $273MM mark.

The Jays didn’t have any qualms about pursuing a QO free agent this offseason, as the team gave up $500K in international bonus pool money and its second-highest pick in the 2023 draft in order to make its biggest signing of the winter.  It wasn’t any surprise that most of the names on Toronto’s target list were pitchers, and the Blue Jays landed some necessary rotation help by signing Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal.

The Giants’ inclusion of an opt-out clause allowed San Francisco to entice Stripling away from a possible reunion with the Jays, meaning that Toronto had an even more marked need to find a replacement for Stripling’s quality production.  Bassitt was the answer, as he cashed in on the heels of a strong four-year run with the Athletics and Mets.  With a knack for inducing soft contact and limiting walks, Bassitt has been a thoroughly solid arm, and he’ll line up as the Blue Jays’ third starter behind Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

Even if the top three has been reinforced, however, an argument can certainly be made that the Jays might have done more at the back end of the rotation.  The Blue Jays are certainly hoping that Jose Berrios will be at worst a good fourth starter if he bounces back from his mediocre 2022 campaign, and fifth starter Yusei Kikuchi is also looking to rebound from a dismal season.

If Kikuchi falters again, the Blue Jays can turn to a group that includes Zach Thompson (acquired in a January trade with the Pirates), non-roster options like Drew Hutchison or Bowden Francis, or Mitch White when he is healthy.  Hyun-Jin Ryu might return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break, but it’s an open guess as to what Ryu can contribute after his long layoff.  If not Ryu, perhaps top prospects Ricky Tiedemann or Yosver Zulueta might become possibilities by the second half, but overall, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the Jays’ rotation might look by the end of the season.

The rotation questions only put more pressure on the bullpen, and in speaking of late-season additions, Chad Green was another notable winter signing, joining the Blue Jays on an option-heavy deal that could be as little as a two-year, $8.5MM deal, or as much as a four-year, $29.25MM pact.  Green had Tommy John surgery last May, so he might also be something of an unofficial “deadline acquisition” that is already in the organization.  If Green can make a quick return to anything close to his past form with the Yankees, he’ll be another nice fit for the relief corps.

It was an altogether interesting offseason in Toronto, as the club didn’t exactly overhaul things (not that such an extreme was needed after a 92-win season) but also did more than just add the proverbial finishing touches to the roster.  The Blue Jays will again face stiff competition to return to the playoffs, but just getting into the postseason wouldn’t be satisfactory for a team that clearly has designs on a championship.

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