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Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Red Sox made some long-term investments in core members of their World Series team, though saying goodbye (maybe?) to some important relievers has left uncertainty within the bullpen.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Chris Sale, SP: Five years, $145MM (Sale can opt out after the 2022 season; contract contains a vesting option for the 2025 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: Six years, $120MM (Bogaerts can opt out after the 2022 season; contract contains a vesting option for the 2026 season)

Notable Losses

[Red Sox organizational depth chart][Red Sox payroll information]

Needs Addressed

It didn’t take long for the Red Sox to bring back their World Series MVP, as Steve Pearce was re-signed to a one-year contract by mid-November.  Pearce began the season on the injured list due to a strained calf but isn’t expected to miss much time before resuming his duties as Mitch Moreland’s first base platoon partner and a late-game pinch-hit candidate.  His $6.25MM price tag is a bit steep compared to what other aging (Pearce turns 36 in mid-April) first base/DH types received on the open market, though it’s probably safe to assume that the team might have considered it an extra thank-you bonus for Pearce’s postseason exploits.  Plus, if he replicates the .901 OPS he posted over 165 PA with the Sox last season, Pearce may suddenly look like a bargain.

Speaking of Boston postseason heroes, Nathan Eovaldi posted a 1.61 ERA over 22 1/3 innings during the 2018 playoffs, including an instantly-legendary six-inning relief stint in the marathon that was Game 3 of the World Series.  That performance was the cherry on top of an outstanding comeback season for Eovaldi, who missed all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery before returning for a 3.81 ERA, 5.05 K/BB rate, and 8.2 K/9 over 111 regular season frames for the Rays and Red Sox.  Beyond just regaining his velocity post-surgery, Eovaldi’s 97.2mph average fastball actually represented a new career high for the right-hander.

Now re-established as a quality starter, Eovaldi drew a lot of attention in the free agent market, though the Sox were helped by the fact that Eovaldi reportedly only gave serious consideration to Boston and Houston (Eovaldi’s hometown club).  Boston ultimately re-signed Eovaldi on a four-year, $68MM contract.

There is no small amount of risk baked into that signing, as Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries under his belt and has averaged just 121 innings per year during his eight MLB seasons.  (The Phillies and perhaps at least one more of Eovaldi’s many suitors this winter apparently had interest in signing him to work as a reliever, which seems like it would’ve been a hard sell to a pitcher with so many rotation offers on the table.)  Despite the concerns, Eovaldi has never pitched as consistently well as he did during his three-plus months in a Red Sox uniform, so it could be that the team’s vaunted pitching braintrust may have unlocked something within Eovaldi to give the Sox faith that the righty can be a front-of-the-rotation arm going forward.

With some key players slated to reach free agency after the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Eovaldi’s deal also helped solidify the team’s core over a slightly longer term.  The Sox took another big step towards this end by extending Chris Sale, keeping the ace southpaw out of the 2019-20 free agent market by inking him to a five-year, $145MM deal.  We’ll address some of the concerns about the Sale contract in the next section, though in terms of pure performance, it’s hard to argue that Sale wasn’t deserving of such a financial commitment.  Sale has the best K/9 (10.9) and K/BB ratio (5.29) of any pitcher in the history of the sport with at least 1000 career innings, to go along with a 2.93 ERA.

Xander Bogaerts was the next 2019-20 free agent land a new contract, agreeing to remain in Boston for a guaranteed $120MM from 2020-25.  The shortstop has generated 17.6 fWAR from 2015-18 and is coming off a 2018 season that saw him post his best numbers yet (.288/.360/.522 in 580 PA).  A similar season could have pushed Bogaerts’ price tag close to the $200MM mark since he doesn’t turn 27 until October.  Instead, now the Sox know they have Bogaerts in the fold for a $20MM average annual value through at least 2025, and maybe 2026 depending on a vesting option.

Boston tried to shop its group of catchers all offseason long but never found a deal.  Instead, the Sox kept Sandy Leon in the organization after he cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A.  This might count as something of a minor victory for the club, since Leon is still on hand to provide defensive depth behind Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart.

Questions Remaining

It was a relatively quiet winter in Beantown, and there was certainly more than a bit of speculation surrounding what moves the Red Sox didn’t make, rather the ones they did.

With Joe Kelly gone to the Dodgers and a reunion with Craig Kimbrel looking unlikely, Boston’s bullpen is down its closer and one of its top setup men from 2018.  The Red Sox didn’t address these vacancies in any major way — rookie Colten Brewer made the Opening Day roster after being acquired from San Diego, while some experienced names like Erasmo Ramirez, Zach Putnam, Jenrry Mejia, and old friend Carson Smith were brought into the mix on minor league deals.

As it stands, Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier will share closing duties, leading a bullpen mix comprised mostly of returning pitchers now expected on take on a larger role.  Since Boston’s relief corps was pretty solid on the whole last year, it isn’t quite the nightmare scenario that many Boston fans are fearing.  The Sox seem to be taking the stance that since they’re such overwhelming favorites for a postseason spot already, they can take the first couple of months to evaluate their relief options and see if anyone emerges.  If not, Boston will likely pursue an established late-game reliever at the trade deadline (or they might do so even if Barnes and/or Brasier thrive, to add further depth).

Of course, this is something of a risky strategy with the Yankees (or maybe even the Rays) poised to battle for the AL East title.  Settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox in a division race that could easily come down to a game or two in the standings.  While the Sox might still have an advantage over the American League as a whole, they surely want to win the division rather than tempt fate in the Wild Card game.

Bogaerts’ extension came after the team’s self-imposed Opening Day deadline for extension talks, so we probably shouldn’t rule out any further deals.  Still, there was more buzz about a potential new Bogaerts contract than there was about a new pact for pending free agent Rick Porcello, as the Red Sox didn’t seem overly interested in a new contract even with Porcello offering something of a discount.

J.D. Martinez is another possible departure if he opts out of the final three years and $62.5MM left on his contract.  There also hasn’t been much traction between Martinez and the team in solidifying their future arrangement, though the Sox could be betting that Martinez chooses to stick with his contract rather than test a free agent market that has been increasingly hostile to defensively-limited players.  Even with another elite hitting season, would Martinez land more than $62.5MM for his age 32-34 seasons, as he becomes increasingly closer to being a DH-only player?  Martinez saw a limited market even last winter, and his situation might not improve now that he’d be two years older and with a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer (which the Sox would surely offer) hanging over his services.

The biggest unanswered question is what it will cost to keep Mookie Betts beyond the 2020 season.  Betts certainly doesn’t sound as if he’s considering signing an extension, so there might not have been much Boston could have done to get him to reconsider his stance on testing free agency (aside from a Mike Trout-esque offer).  With two years of team control remaining, there isn’t necessarily any urgency to lock Betts up immediately, though his price tag only seems to be rising.  Betts already rejected a $200MM extension offer prior to his MVP season in 2018, and retaining his services may take a $300MM+ commitment at this point.

Boston’s major investment in Sale also carries some red flags.  While Sale has been a durable arm over his career, his performance declined down the stretch in 2017, and he pitched just 17 regular-season innings after July 27 in 2018 due to shoulder issues (plus 15 1/3 innings over five postseason appearances).  If health problems are only starting to crop up now that Sale has celebrated his 30th birthday, it doesn’t auger well for him continuing to stay healthy for the life of that extension.  The Red Sox are also now averaging $75MM in salary to three rotation members in Sale, Eovaldi, and David Price through the 2022 season.  Price has also had some health issues over the last few years, while Eovaldi’s injury history is well-documented.

The question of money, of course, is at the heart of every transaction (or non-transaction) Boston made this winter.  The Red Sox soared over the luxury tax threshold last season, topping the highest penalty level ($237MM) and thus faced slightly under $12MM in tax payments and a ten-slot drop for their first round draft pick.  Even as the Competitive Balance Tax has risen to $206MM for 2019, Roster Resource has Boston’s projected luxury tax number at slightly more than $253.2MM, well over the $246MM threshold that would trigger another maximum penalty.  If the Sox spend more than $246MM, their 2020 first-round pick will again drop back ten spots.  They’ll also pay $14.4MM in taxes for their payroll up to that $246MM mark and an additional 75 percent tax on every dollar from that point forth.  If that $253.2MM projection proves accurate, the Sox would pay a total of $19.8MM in luxury taxes.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams detailed Boston’s payroll situation in a recent analysis of why the Sox were hesitant about re-signing Kimbrel, or making a lot of big splashes this winter.  Extending Sale increased his luxury tax number, thus sending the team over the $246MM threshold and into the max penalty danger zone once more.  With this in mind, the Red Sox were reportedly even open to trade offers for Bogaerts, Porcello, and Jackie Bradley Jr. this winter as the club looked to cut costs.

The counter-argument, as Steve noted, is that the big-market Red Sox could absorb that tax hit as a giant one-year expense in the name of fully reloading for another World Series run while their core group is still together.  Enough salary will come off the books after the season (Porcello, Pearce, Moreland, Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, and Boston’s remaining commitment to Pablo Sandoval) that the Sox might even have a shot at ducking under the $208MM luxury threshold for 2020 entirely, though it’ll be difficult considering the arbitration raises due to Betts, Bradley, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and maybe Barnes is his arbitration salary is boosted due to accumulating saves.  (Brasier could even reach arbitration as well, depending on where this year’s Super Two cutoff lands.)

Extensions to retain stars like Sale and Bogaerts, however, look to have been the only type of big splurge the club was willing to make to send it beyond the $246MM border this year.  Any further moves the Red Sox could make are likely to wait until midseason, when their deadline pickups will only have two-plus months of salary commitments remaining.  These pickups could include finding a reliever, maybe rotation depth, or possibly another second baseman in the vein of their acquisition of Ian Kinsler last summer.  It’s still unknown how much Dustin Pedroia will be able to contribute in 2019, leaving Boston with a combination of Holt and Nunez until Pedroia is ready, with Tzu-Wei Lin, an injured Marco Hernandez, and top prospect Michael Chavis as further potential options.

Second base is the biggest question mark around the diamond, as the Sox can be reasonably hopeful that Vazquez and Rafael Devers take steps forward from their mediocre 2018 showings to shore up the catcher and third base positions.  Without a ton of bench depth and a lack of money to spend on more upgrades, however, Boston will again be counting heavily on its superstars.

2019 Season Outlook

With all of these questions in mind, Fangraphs projected the Red Sox to take a big dropoff from their 108-win performance in 2018, as Boston is currently projected to win “only”…. 94 games.  Needless to say, the Sox still look like heavy favorites to again reach the postseason, though they’ll be neck-and-neck with the Yankees all year long for the AL East crown.

How would you grade what the Red Sox did this offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

How Would You Grade The Red Sox Offseason?
C 39.73% (1,477 votes)
B 28.21% (1,049 votes)
D 16.30% (606 votes)
F 8.20% (305 votes)
A 7.56% (281 votes)
Total Votes: 3,718

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NL West Notes: Marquez, Rays, Lamb, Padres

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As Ron Burgundy and the Channel 4 News Team race to the finish at Padres games, let’s take a look around the NL West…

  • As the Rockies make a rare visit to Tampa Bay this weekend, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looks back at the trade that sent German Marquez from the Rays to the Mile High City.  This deal may be known as “the German Marquez trade” in hindsight, though back in January 2016, Marquez was a little-known minor leaguer who had yet to even reach Double-A when he and Jake McGee were sent to Colorado in exchange for Corey Dickerson and infield prospect Kevin Padlo.  In 2017-18, however, Marquez developed into a stalwart member of the Rockies’ rotation, posting a 4.05 ERA, 9.5 K/9, and 3.56 K/BB rate over 358 innings.  Marquez’s “abilities and the ingredients were there to have this type of impact in time…so in that way [I’m] not surprised,” Rays GM Erik Neander said.  Dickerson was traded after the 2017 season and Padlo is still at high-A ball, though Neander said that Dickerson contributed some solid offensive production to help the Rays.  “To make trades at the volume and frequency at which we do you have to be very comfortable knowing you’re not going to get them all right,” Neander said.  “That’s something we understand and expect, and are willing to accept that because we think the total volume of the transactions we make are best for our organization…Without knowing exactly what winning a transaction even means because a lot of them are made with different goals at the time between the teams.”
  • In a bit of a reversal from a statement earlier this weekend, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and other reporters that Jake Lamb will still see some action at his old third base position.  Lovullo even considered using Lamb at the hot corner on Saturday to get some work in, as Lamb spent much of Spring Training learning on his new first base role, and also was briefly sidelined with a back problem.  While Lamb hasn’t been much of a defender at third, it can’t hurt to keep him sharp at the position for the sake of roster flexibility.
  • The Padres’ young rotation will be tested by an upcoming stretch of 11 straight games, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes.  There aren’t any offdays scheduled for the Padres between April 6-16, which could prove tricky for a team carrying two hurlers (Chris Paddack, Matt Strahm) on pitch limits, and southpaw Nick Margevicius, who had never pitched above A-ball before making his MLB debut on Saturday.  “All options are on the table, from bullpen days to openers to protecting certain starters by pushing guys back and having guys step in front of them in the rotation.  We’ll be creative,” manager Andy Green said.  Cassavell also isn’t ruling out the possibility of a spot start by another minor leaguer, or perhaps even a newly-acquired pitcher joining the rotation mix.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Kimbrel, Keuchel, Eloy, Pillar, Joyce

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There isn’t much indication that Craig Kimbrel or Dallas Keuchel are closing in on new contracts, though that hasn’t stopped teams from keeping in touch with the two free agents.  Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required) list the Mets and Brewers as two of the clubs checking in on both pitchers, though Milwaukee is more focused on Kimbrel as a potential add.  The Rays are also still maintaining contact with Kimbrel, after reports during Spring Training suggested Tampa Bay was at least considering signing the closer.  Rosenthal and Lin described the Mets’ interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel “as a matter of due diligence,” with MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and Newsday’s Tim Healey (both Twitter links) adding that it doesn’t seem likely that either pitcher will end up in a Mets uniform.

Here’s more from Rosenthal, via his most recent Full Count video for FOX Sports…

  • Eloy Jimenez’s career-opening extension with the White Sox included “an understanding” that Jimenez and his camp wouldn’t pursue a service-time grievance with the league and players’ union.  Jimenez’s agents expressed public displeasure last summer when their client wasn’t given a late-season promotion, and the young slugger had been ticketed to begin this season in Triple-A before he inked his extension, which opened the door for Jimenez to join Chicago’s Opening Day roster.  The evidence seems to pretty clearly suggest that the White Sox were aiming to extend their control over Jimenez for an extra year, though the Sox are far from the only team that deploys this strategy with top prospects.
  • The Giants are the only team known to be involved in the Kevin Pillar trade market, though Rosenthal notes that the Blue Jays have also talked with multiple other teams about the center fielder.  Pillar offers two years of team control and a center field glove that was elite from 2015-17, as per the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics.  Last season, however, Pillar’s glovework was rated closer to average overall, and he has yet to post even league-average run production over his six MLB seasons.  If a trade did take place, Pillar would join Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin, and Troy Tulowitzki as Jays veterans sent out of town as Toronto makes room for its younger players.
  • The Braves acquired Matt Joyce from the Giants last weekend, just three days after Joyce joined San Francisco on a minor league contract.  Rosenthal provides some details on the transaction, stating that while the Giants were prepared to part ways with Joyce regardless, Atlanta chose to send some cash to the Giants in a trade rather than simply sign Joyce when he became available.  Since league offices were closed last Saturday on the day of the trade, Joyce’s arrival in the Braves’ spring camp could have been further delayed had the two sides been required to wait for the contract to be officially approved.  With a trade, however, Joyce was able to get some time in Atlanta’s camp, which led to his placement on the club’s Opening Day roster (Joyce marked his first PA with his new team by swatting a pinch-hit homer).

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Apart from a late push in the Bryce Harper market, the Giants stuck to mostly low-profile signings and acquisitions in Farhan Zaidi’s first offseason as the club’s president of baseball operations.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Giants Organizational Depth Chart | Giants Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

Signed to a minor league deal last offseason, Derek Holland ended up being a major bargain for the Giants.  After four injury-riddled and ineffective years with the Rangers and White Sox, Holland got back on track by posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.88 K/9, and 2.52 K/9 rate over 171 1/3 innings for San Francisco in 2018.

The Reds, Rangers, and Mets were all linked to Holland over the course of the winter, though the southpaw ended up returning to the Giants on a one-year deal worth $7MM in guaranteed money, plus the club holds an option for 2020 that could result in Holland earning as much as $15MM over the course of the next two seasons.  There weren’t any big red flags in Holland’s peripherals from last season, so this new contract would also be well worth the Giants’ while if Holland remains healthy.

Drew PomeranzThere’s more of an injury concern in regards to new arrival Drew Pomeranz, who has had health issues over the course of his career and pitched only 74 innings last season due to a variety of arm problems.  At just a $1.5MM guaranteed salary, however, the Giants aren’t taking much of a financial risk on Pomeranz, and he is only a year removed from giving the Red Sox 173 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA pitching.  Pomeranz is penciled in as the fifth starter (behind Madison Bumgarner, Holland, Jeff Samardzija, and Dereck Rodriguez). San Francisco has the likes of Andrew Suarez, waiver claims Jose Lopez and Merandy Gonzalez (if they clear waivers and remain in the organization), and former first-rounder Tyler Beede as Triple-A depth options.

Hunter Strickland was somewhat surprisingly let go just prior to the non-tender deadline, though the Giants have been getting good results from many of their relievers this spring, leaving the club with a bit of a logjam for the Opening Day bullpen.  Rule 5 Draft pick Travis Bergen has to remain on the MLB roster all season or else be offered back to Toronto, though Bergen has pitched well enough to retain his position regardless.  Low-risk acquisitions Nick Vincent, Trevor Gott, Fernando Abad, or Pat Venditte could either provide depth if they remain in the organization, win jobs outright, or potentially move into roles left open should the Giants swing a late trade involving Will Smith or Tony Watson.

A change was made at backup catcher, as Nick Hundley will be replaced by pair of late-spring acquisitions.  After it seemed like rookie Aramis Garcia and minor league signings Rene Rivera and Stephen Vogt would vie for the job, San Francisco changed course by adding veterans Erik Kratz and Tom Murphy.  Rivera was cut loose, while Vogt and Garcia will provide additional depth in the minors.  It seems like enough of a logjam that a future move seems inevitable, though the Giants want to have plenty of catching on hand as Buster Posey recovers from hip surgery.  On the plus side, Posey seems to be making good progress and is on track to appear in the Opening Day lineup, though obviously the Giants will keep a close eye on their franchise player’s status.

Outfield was the Giants’ biggest need heading into the offseason, and the club ultimately brought in a number of new faces to supplement youngster Steven Duggar (who looks to play more or less every day in center field).  Former Rockies/Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra will make the Opening Day roster after signing a minor league contract.  The Giants essentially swapped one Rule 5 pick for another in trading for Connor Joe and letting Drew Ferguson return to the Astros.  Michael Reed, Mike Gerber, and Craig Gentry are also on hand, while incumbent Mac Williamson remains in the mix for at least part-time duty in left field.

Yangervis Solarte hasn’t appeared in a big league game as an outfielder since 2014, though the former Blue Jays utilityman has been working out in left field during Spring Training with an eye towards improving his versatility.  Between Solarte, Joe, and Alen Hanson, the Giants have several players with experience at multiple positions — potentially bumping Pablo Sandoval out of the mix.

Questions Remaining

Of course, the Giants could have made a much more newsworthy outfield upgrade had they landed Harper.  The team was something of an eleventh-hour entry into “Harper’s Bazaar,” though San Francisco ended up being Harper’s apparent second choice before the star free agent signed a (temporarily) record-setting 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies.  The Giants’ reported offer of 12 years and $310MM fell shy, though the team would’ve had to top the $350MM mark to truly outbid the Phillies due to California’s higher tax rate.

It goes without saying that signing Harper would’ve changed not only the trajectory of this Giants offseason, but also the team’s outlook for the next several years.  With Harper in the fold, the Giants would have indicated a full-fledged push towards contending while many of their highest-salaried players (Bumgarner through this season, Samardzija and Mark Melancon through 2020, and then Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, and Evan Longoria through 2021) are still with the team.  Along those same lines, the Giants also had interest in signing Yusei Kikuchi before the Japanese left-hander joined the Mariners.

Without Harper or Kikuchi, however, San Francisco left the offseason still straddling the middle ground between contending and fully rebuilding.  The club has to this point resisted overtures from rival teams and held on to Bumgarner, Watson, and Smith; yet the Giants also took a very modest approach to adding to their roster.  They weren’t going to deal any prospects from an already-thin farm system, and they settled for inexpensive free agent and trade additions after missing out on Kikuchi and Harper.

Joe Panik’s status is perhaps indicative of the Giants’ overall stance this offseason.  The team kept Panik in the fold rather than non-tendering him following an injury-shortened and replacement-level season, at a one-year, $3.8MM deal to avoid arbitration.  At the same time, however, San Francisco also looked into signing second baseman DJ LeMahieu while checking the trade market to see what could be obtained for Panik.  As it turned out, the Giants didn’t get that upgrade, and will instead go into the season with a known quantity in Panik who the club hopes will rebound.

A case can be made that Zaidi may be waiting to see how things shake out; come mid-season, he may have some new trade avenues or even the makings of a contending core.  After all, Posey, Belt, Bumgarner, Samardzija, Crawford, and Melancon were all limited by injuries in 2018 — better health from even a few of those names would likely make a difference in the standings.  A full teardown wasn’t really possible this winter anyway since so many of those same players have limited trade value, due to their down years, health histories, hefty contracts, no-trade clauses, or all of the above.

On the other hand, it’s also unrealistic to imagine that all of those veterans will enjoy bounce-back years.  With so many big contracts already verging on albatross territory for the team, one can’t entirely blame Zaidi for eschewing the type of expensive acquisitions that have backfired on the Giants in recent years.  Signing a Harper or a Kikuchi is one thing, though settling for a lower-tier free agent as a stopgap isn’t the type of move that would fuel a bigger jump up the standings.

If San Francisco isn’t contending by midseason, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club shift into a more definitive sell mode, at the very least on pending free agents like Bumgarner or Smith.  It also wouldn’t be a shock to see the Giants explore being both buyers and sellers at the deadline — moving some short-term assets while taking on an expensive longer-term asset that could help them in 2020 or beyond.  If the Giants were willing to spend $310MM on Harper, they’re clearly open to exceeding the luxury tax threshold again in order to land premium talent.

Should 2019 end up being the last hurrah for this group of Giants stars before a rebuild, it’s perhaps fitting longtime manager Bruce Bochy will retire when the year is out.  The three-time World Series champion will manage a 25th season before stepping out of the dugout and starting his inevitable path to Cooperstown.

2019 Season Outlook

Frankly, there’s still a few days for the roster to change, which could shift the outlook. Regardless, an awful lot would have to go right for the Giants to go from 89 losses in 2018 to a playoff contender in 2019.  In a very competitive National League, the Giants could themselves battling to stay out of last place in their division, rather than challenging the Dodgers for NL West supremacy.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Giants' Offseason?
D 38.13% (1,625 votes)
C 30.15% (1,285 votes)
F 21.47% (915 votes)
B 8.45% (360 votes)
A 1.81% (77 votes)
Total Votes: 4,262

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Blue Jays added some veteran stopgaps to their roster, while saying goodbye to some of the best-known members of their 2015-16 playoff teams.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Blue Jays Organizational Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The rotation was Toronto’s clearest area of need going into the offseason, and as expected, the Blue Jays added some inexpensive veteran arms to bolster a very young crop of starting pitchers.  Matt Shoemaker, Clayton Richard, and (eventually) Clay Buchholz will all take turns in the rotation, backing up the incumbent top two of Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez.

Matt Shoemaker

Naturally, there’s a lot of uncertainty baked into that mix given the lengthy injury histories of Shoemaker, Buchholz, Sanchez, and even Stroman and Richard last season.  There’s also the looming possibility that any of these pitchers could find themselves on new teams by the trade deadline.  As such, Ryan Borucki is expected to receive plenty of starts throughout the course of the year, though Borucki himself will miss some time to begin the season.  One of Sean Reid-Foley, Thomas Pannone, Sam Gaviglio, and the newly-acquired Trent Thornton will fill in while Borucki is out and until Buchholz gets game-ready, and these younger arms are likely to get their share of innings before 2019 is out.

Could Toronto’s rotation end up being a quiet strength for the team?  It would require a lot of bounceback years, though it isn’t out of the question, especially if Stroman is healthy after an injury-filled 2018 and Sanchez has finally gotten over the finger/blister problems that have plagued him over the last two years.  Shoemaker’s last two seasons have been marred by injuries, though when he did pitch last season, his peripheral numbers were much better than his 4.94 ERA over 31 innings for the Angels would indicate.  Buchholz delivered an eye-popping 2.01 ERA over 98 1/3 innings of work for Arizona last season before a flexor mass strain in September ended his year.

Beyond the rotation, the Jays made their now-annual additions of relievers who could very well become midseason trade chips.  In the tradition of such past names as Joe Smith, Seunghwan Oh, and John Axford, this winter’s crop of bullpen signings included David Phelps, Daniel Hudson, Bud Norris, and temporarily Axford again, though he was released in the wake of elbow problems that will sideline the Canadian right-hander for at least a month.  (It wouldn’t be surprising, though, to see the Jays re-sign Axford to a new contract in short order.)

It should be noted that Hudson is the only of this group who is entirely healthy.  Norris has been limited in Spring Training, while Phelps won’t be back until midseason due to his recovery from March 2018 Tommy John surgery.  This timeline likely means that Phelps may not be dealt at all; his contract contains a flexible club option for 2020, as both the Blue Jays and the right-hander are seemingly approaching this year as something of an extended recovery period.

As with the new starters, the new relievers also have some upside.  Norris was the Cardinals’ closer for much of 2018, and Phelps was a strong contributor for the Marlins and Mariners in 2016-17 before undergoing surgery.  The combination of Hudson, Norris, Ryan Tepera (if healthy, that is) and closer Ken Giles gives the Jays a pretty solid end-game mix, and a recovered Phelps will only improve that group.  Sergio Romo and Adam Warren were a couple of the other bullpen names considered by the Blue Jays this winter.

After Aledmys Diaz was traded to Houston for Thornton, and Troy Tulowitzki was given an outright release, the shortstop position was seemingly cleared for Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  Instead, however, it now looks like the Jays have an eye towards playing Gurriel all over the diamond since he might not be ready for the defensive challenge of being an everyday shortstop.  (Indeed, it looks like Gurriel will begin the year as a second baseman, since Devon Travis is again sidelined with knee problems.)

Minor league signing Eric Sogard could end up filling the utility infield void, and for the regular shortstop role, the Blue Jays turned to Freddy Galvis.  The former Phillies and Padres infielder is the picture of durability (he has played in every game in the last two seasons and averaged 158 games per year since 2015), and he brings more defensive stability up the middle.  How much stability is perhaps a question depending on which of Galvis’ strangely divergent defensive metrics you believe, as he went from a +3.2 UZR/150 and minus-5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2017 to minus-3.8 UZR.150 and +7 DRS last season.  Even just average glovework, however, represents an upgrade for a Jays team that was one of the league’s worst defensive clubs in 2018.

Questions Remaining

The Blue Jays moved squarely into rebuild mode last season, and this winter continued to be about setting the table for their future young talent.  To that end, the Jays bid adieu to some stalwart veterans — Marco Estrada departed in free agency, Tulowitzki was released, and Russell Martin was dealt to the Dodgers.

The latter two moves were more about roster clearance than financial flexibility, as the Jays are still on the hook for just under $54MM total owed in remaining contract obligations to Martin (through 2019) and Tulowitzki (through 2020).  Naturally, the team had little hope of finding a trade partner to eat even more of that figure given that Tulowitzki missed all of 2018, while Martin struggled to just a .194/.338/.325 slash line through 352 plate appearances.

Even accounting for these two big contracts and the $12MM remaining on Kendrys Morales’ contract, the Jays have very little in the way of future salary obligations; Gurriel is the only player owed money beyond the 2020 season.  This led to some speculation that Toronto could explore some of the bigger-name players available this winter, and the Jays did indeed raise some eyebrows when they were linked to some major Scott Boras clients (Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, Yusei Kikuchi) on the rumor mill.  While it seems like the Blue Jays made a legitimate bid for Kikuchi, the other talks were perhaps exploratory at best, and only Harper and Kikuchi would have fit as a true longer-term asset for a Jays club that doesn’t appear ready to contend until 2021.

Until then, the Jays will focus on determining which of their group of highly-touted young players will be part of this next core.  2019 will finally see the debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the Major League stage, as attention can finally turn to Guerrero’s prodigious on-field talents, rather than his status (perhaps shared with Kris Bryant) as the poster child for clubs keeping top prospects in the minors just long enough to gain an extra year of team control.  The situation became a moot point in Guerrero’s case, since his recovery from an oblique strain will keep him out until at least mid-April anyway.  Still, “oblique” might also be a good description of Jays executives’ increasingly far-flung arguments for why Guerrero wasn’t ticketed for the Opening Day roster, since obviously they couldn’t openly mention service time considerations.

The Jays’ plan is to deploy Brandon Drury at third base until Guerrero arrives, then move Drury to second base, perhaps in a timeshare with Gurriel or (if healthy) Travis.  Alternatively, Gurriel could split time between second base, shortstop, and left field, joining Teoscar Hernandez and Billy McKinney in the left field mix.  Outfielder Anthony Alford has enjoyed a big Spring Training, and he’ll get a longer look sometime this season if he proves capable of staying healthy and gets some more minor league seasoning.

As with the rotation, the Blue Jays’ position player mix is pretty fluid since at least some of the club’s veterans (Morales, Galvis, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar) are likely to be wearing different uniforms come September.  Smoak and Pillar each received a bit of trade buzz over the winter, with Smoak getting some attention from the Rockies and Pillar from the Giants, though no moves involving that group have ultimately been made. (A deal prior to Opening Day is still technically possible.)

Since Toronto faces a steep uphill battle in the AL East, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team start shopping its veterans relatively early, potentially to get the jump on other sellers.  Especially now that the August trade period is no more, one wonders if the Jays might be open to trading Smoak, Pillar, and to a somewhat lesser extent Grichuk or Galvis at any time this season, rather than waiting until the July 31 trade deadline.

The same could be said of Stroman, Sanchez, or Giles, who project as Toronto’s top potential trade chips.  The Jays were reportedly open to dealing Giles this winter, while Stroman and Sanchez each received attention.  Stroman in particular drew significant interest from such teams as the Reds and Padres.  Stroman has made it clear he wants to stay in Toronto and was displeased at the lack of contract extension talks as well as the fact that the team wasn’t making a bigger push to contend in 2019.

Since the Jays’ asking price for the two starters was, in the words of Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, found by some suitors to be “uncomfortably high,” it makes more sense for Toronto to keep Stroman and Sanchez for at least the opening portion of the season.  This allows the two right-handers to rebuild their value by proving that they’re both recovered from their rough 2018 seasons.  If the Blue Jays see Stroman and Sanchez as part of the rebuild process rather than rotation cornerstones of their next contending roster, the team surely wants to maximize its return in potential trades, particularly after receiving relatively little for Martin and Josh Donaldson.  With both Stroman and Sanchez controlled through 2020, a healthy version of either pitcher would draw widespread interest.

2019 Season Outlook

Another year in the 73-78 win range seems likely for the rebuilding Jays, as a very tough division schedule will make it hard for even an improved team to gain much traction in the AL Wild Card race.  If Guerrero comes close to matching his incredible projected numbers, however, it’ll be an exciting year for Toronto fans.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Blue Jays' Offseason?
C 40.87% (1,307 votes)
D 25.83% (826 votes)
B 17.04% (545 votes)
F 13.66% (437 votes)
A 2.60% (83 votes)
Total Votes: 3,198

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rays Broached Extension Talks To Willy Adames, Brent Honeywell

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The Rays have traditionally been pretty aggressive in locking up young players to early-career extensions, as evidenced by their recent deals with Blake Snell and Brandon Lowe.  Beyond that duo, Willy Adames and Brent Honeywell told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that they had also been approached about long-term deals.

Adames has been a consensus top-25 prospect in baseball in each of the last two seasons, and he now projects as Tampa’s everyday shortstop after hitting .278/.348/.406 during 323 plate appearances in his 2018 rookie season.  Adames didn’t specify when the Rays first brought up an extension, whether it was this offseason, during last season, or perhaps even before Adames made his big league debut altogether.

For speculation purposes, if a long-term deal was explored this past winter, recent extensions for Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong stand out as comparables for Adames.  Both shortstops also had less than a year of service time, and each landed six-year pacts with two club option years, with Anderson getting a guaranteed $25MM and DeJong (signed a year later) $26MM in guaranteed money.  It’s probably safe to assume Adames would’ve gotten a bit more, both due to his top-prospect status, and since those deals were almost topped in value by the extension Scott Kingery signed with the Phillies before he ever set foot on a Major League field.  (This is also basically the deal Lowe signed, except with one fewer club option year.)

While Evan Longoria and Matt Moore each had just a small bit of MLB service time when they inked their extensions with the club, the Rays have never extended a player who has never appeared in the Major Leagues.  A Honeywell extension would’ve therefore been a precedent-setting deal for both the team and for the league as a whole, as no pitcher has ever signed an extension before making his debut in the Show.  Moore came closest, as he had just 17 days of regular-season service time when he inked his five-year, $14MM extension (with three club option years) back in December 2011.

It’s hard to use a contract that’s over seven years old as a comparable, plus Honeywell’s health situation also adds another unique wrinkle to his case.  Honeywell said the Rays discussed the long-term deal after he underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2018.  While we can assume that the team’s offer reflected that injury risk, it still represents some courage on Honeywell’s part in betting on himself to recovery from the surgery, rather than getting at least one multi-million dollar payday out of his professional career before even throwing a pitch in the majors.

It’s worth noting that Honeywell received an $800K bonus when drafted, so he has already obtained some financial security.  Honeywell was a second-round pick (72nd overall) for the Rays in the 2014 draft, and he has been perhaps even more highly-touted than Adames, with three consecutive years as at least a top-30 prospect in the eyes of Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com and Baseball America.  The three publications had Honeywell respectively ranked 11th, 12th, and 14th on their top-100 lists prior to the 2018 season.  Honeywell has a 2.88 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 4.92 K/BB rate over 416 professional innings, and he was expected to make an impact in Tampa’s rotation last season before injury struck.

Most teams, of course, probably at least float the idea of early-career extensions to much of their young talent.  The Rays in particular have made a habit of this tactic, given the team’s financial limitations.  Tyler Glasnow and Daniel Robertson didn’t want to comment to Topkin whether or not they had been offered long-term deals or not, while Jose Alvarado said he’s be open to discussions with the club (which could hint that the Rays haven’t yet talked to Alvarado).

The front office, for its part, seems to be open for business.  GM Erik Neander said that the Rays “would love to keep the one-[extension]-a-day pace here if we could. We’re very high on the group of players that we have here. It’s a group we believe in. And when there are opportunities to find overlap between our players and our organization that increases the chances they can be here for a longer period of time, that’s something that we will continue to explore whenever those opportunities present themselves.”

NL West Notes: Holland, Kratz, Giants, Garcia, Shaw

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The latest from the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks will use Greg Holland as their closer, Torey Lovullo told reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro) today.  The veteran reliever didn’t exactly impress during Spring Training, posting a 12.27 ERA over 3 2/3 IP, yet Lovullo said the D’Backs made their decision based in part on Holland’s past closing experience.  Also, with Holland at closer, it frees Arizona to use Archie Bradley and Yoshihisa Hirano either as setup men or perhaps in other high-leverge situations earlier in games.  Holland is trying for a rebound year following a 2018 that saw him get off a rough start with the Cardinals, before somewhat righting the ship in the Nationals’ bullpen down the stretch.  He signed a one-year, $3.25MM contract with the D’Backs this winter, and Holland can more than double that total with $3.5MM available in incentives.
  • The newly-acquired Erik Kratz will be the Giants’ backup catcher, manager Bruce Bochy told NBC Sports’ Alex Pavlovic and other media.  This doesn’t necessarily mean that rookie Aramis Garcia will be sent down to Triple-A, as Bochy said the club is still thinking about carrying three catchers early in the year to account for Buster Posey’s recovery from hip surgery last summer.  As Pavlovic notes, however, keeping Garcia would create a bit of a roster crunch if the Giants stick with their plan of carrying 13 pitchers.
  • Bryan Shaw’s first season with the Rockies was a tough one, as the veteran reliever struggled to a 5.93 ERA over 54 2/3 innings.  This led to an offseason devoted to correcting Shaw’s mechanics, The Athletic’s Nick Groke writes (subscription required), which included discovering and correcting a flaw in the right-hander’s delivery, as well as a new strengthening program to keep Shaw’s shoulder in good condition.  While Shaw got off to a rough start in Spring Training as these changes took hold, he can begun to show better form in recent outings.  The Rockies are sorely in need of a bounce-back year from Shaw (not to mention Jake McGee and Mike Dunn) in order to reinforce a bullpen that lost Adam Ottavino to free agency.

AL Central Notes: Ramirez, Indians, Tigers, Jones, Eloy

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The Indians received a scare when Jose Ramirez fouled a ball off his left knee during the third inning of today’s game against the White Sox.  Ramirez had to be carted off the field, though it seems as though the worst was avoided, as x-rays came back negative on the injury.  (ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was among those to report the news.)  It isn’t clear if the knee contusion could still cause Ramirez to miss regular-season time or even require an IL stint — if the latter, it would another big blow to a Tribe infield that is already without Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis for the start of the season.  As per the team’s official Twitter feed, Ramirez will remain at the Tribe’s Spring Training camp for treatment, and his status is undecided for Opening Day.

Some more from the AL Central…

  • Hanley Ramirez is looking like a strong bet to break camp with the Indians, as manager Terry Francona told MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters that “if we stay put” with roster moves, Ramirez will make the team.  Today was the opt-out date in the veteran slugger’s minor league contract with Cleveland, though it looks as if a quality Spring Training performance (.844 OPS in 38 PA) has earned Ramirez the opportunity to appear in his 15th Major League season.  Ramirez is something of a limited resource on the 25-man roster, as the team intends to use him only as a designated hitter, though his presence allows Jake Bauers to be spelled against tough left-handed pitching.  Assuming Ramirez does officially make the roster, he’ll earn $1MM in guaranteed salary.
  • JaCoby Jones will start the season on the IL after suffering a left shoulder sprain while diving for a ball on Saturday.  Speaking with media (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News), Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire hinted at a rough 2-3 week timeline for Jones’ recovery, though Gardenhire’s estimate seemed speculative.  Jones and Mikie Mahtook were slated to share center field duties for the Tigers, though Niko Goodrum will now see some time in center with Jones out, plus outfielder Dustin Peterson could now factor into Detroit’s Opening Day plans.
  • Eloy Jimenez’s record-setting extension with the White Sox was almost completed last November at the GM Meetings, GM Rick Hahn told MLB.com’s Scott Merkin and other reporters, but the final details weren’t put into place until the two sides held face-to-face meetings over the last few days.  The result was a six-year, $43MM pact, the biggest extension ever given to a player who has yet to play a Major League game.  There has yet to be official word about whether or not Jimenez will be with the Sox on Opening Day, though there wouldn’t seem to be any service-time obstacles now that the White Sox control Jimenez for as many as his first eight big league seasons.

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