Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/22/18

By Mark Polishuk | November 22, 2018 at 4:52pm CDT

Rounding up some recent minor league transactions from around the baseball world….

The Marlins have signed outfielder Gabriel Guerrero to a minor league deal, as Guerrero announced on his personal Instagram page. The 24-year-old has bounced around the farm systems of the Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Reds during his eight-year pro career, finally cracking the big leagues in 2018 by appearing in 14 games for Cincinnati. He was outrighted off the Reds’ 40-man roster in October, paving the way for another trip to free agency. Guerrero has a .273/.314/.413 slash line and 80 home runs over 3612 PA in the minors, showing glimpses of potential but never really establishing himself as a top-tier prospect.
The White Sox re-signed first baseman Matt Skole to a minors deal, as per Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Originally a fifth-round pick for the Nationals in the 2011 draft and a noteworthy prospect in Washington’s farm system, injuries hampered Skole’s progress, and he didn’t make his MLB debut until last season. After joining Chicago’s organization as a minor league free agent last winter, Skole appeared in four games for the Sox and accumulated 13 plate appearances, before being outrighted following the season. The 29-year-old Skole has a career .250/.356/.441 slash line and 116 homers over 3284 career PA in the minors.
Also from Eddy, the Mariners signed infielder Orlando Calixte to a minors pact. Calixte spent all of 2018 at the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate before electing to become a free agent after the season. Calixte has been a shortstop for much of his nine-year professional career, though he has also seen significant time as a second and third baseman, and in all three outfield spots. This versatility helped him reach the majors in 2015 (two games with the Royals) and 2017 (29 games with the Giants) despite only hitting a modest .249/.303/.385 over 3628 PA in the minors.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

By Mark Polishuk | November 18, 2018 at 11:05pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Giants reassigned general manager and longtime front office fixture Bobby Evans in order to bring some fresh ideas into the mix after two straight disappointing seasons. Now, newly-hired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi faces a tall order in streamlining an expensive, veteran-heavy, underachieving roster and helping guide the Giants back to contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

Evan Longoria, 3B: $73.166MM through 2022 (includes $5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
Johnny Cueto, SP: $71MM through 2021 (includes $5MM buyout of $22M club option for 2022)
Buster Posey, C: $67.2MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
Brandon Belt, 1B: $48MM through 2021
Brandon Crawford, SS: $45MM through 2021
Jeff Samardzija, SP: $39MM through 2020
Mark Melancon, RP: $28MM through 2020 (didn’t exercise opt-out clause)
Madison Bumgarner, SP: $12MM in 2019 (Giants exercised club option)
Tony Watson, RP: $6MM through 2020 (Watson can exercise player option for a $500K buyout to opt out of contract after 2019 season)
Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $555K through 2019 (Giants exercised club option; Red Sox responsible for the rest of the remaining $22.445MM owed on Sandoval’s contract through 2019)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Sam Dyson (4.142) – $5.4MM
Joe Panik (4.100) – $4.2MM
Will Smith (5.155) – $4.1MM
Hunter Strickland (3.163) – $2.5MM
Gorkys Hernandez (3.013) – $1.6MM
Non-tender candidates: Panik, Hernandez

Free Agents

Hunter Pence, Derek Holland, Nick Hundley, Gregor Blanco

[San Francisco Giants Depth Chart | San Francisco Giants Payroll Information]

The top eight names in the “guaranteed contracts” section (everyone except Tony Watson and Pablo Sandoval) are slated to earn approximately $135.84MM in 2019, coming off a season in which the octet generated a combined 8.3 fWAR. That’s a lower total fWAR than Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Jacob deGrom produced as individuals in 2018, which is indicative of the troubling situation in which San Francisco finds itself heading into this new season. Between homegrown names that haven’t been producing and high-priced acquisitions that range from underwhelming to disastrous, the Giants simply don’t know what to expect going forward from most of the biggest names on their roster.

Into this situation comes Zaidi, who brings more of an analytically-minded approach to the Giants’ more traditionally “old-school” front office. Zaidi has experience finding efficiencies while working with payrolls both small (from his time in the Athletics’ front office) and large (as the Dodgers’ GM). Ideally, the Giants would love to see Zaidi replicate what he did in Los Angeles alongside president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman — cut tens of millions in salary while still reaching the postseason every year. The Dodgers went from touching the $300MM mark in payroll at the start of Zaidi’s tenure to getting under the luxury tax threshold this past season.

Unlike with the Dodgers, however, Zaidi inherits a Giants team that doesn’t have many polished prospects ready to step into regular roles. And, while the Dodgers had their share of underperforming big contracts, injury questions weren’t quite as prevalent as they are for the Giants’ priciest assets heading into 2019.

Johnny Cueto, for instance, almost surely won’t pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Hip surgery could keep Buster Posey from the Opening Day lineup. Brandon Belt battled knee problems down the stretch and has a lengthy injury history. Jeff Samardzija missed much of 2018 with shoulder issues, and Mark Melancon’s two years in San Francisco have been punctuated by multiple trips to the disabled list. Brandon Crawford dealt with nagging knee problems last year, though he also simply hasn’t hit as much over the last two years as he did from 2014-16.

Madison Bumgarner has had his own share of DL time over the past two seasons, which was certainly one reason why his numbers (3.29 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate over 240 2/3 IP) were a step back from his usual ace standards. That said, Bumgarner is still easily the most intriguing trade chip/extension candidate the Giants have, and what the team decides to do with the southpaw this offseason may quite possibly determine their approach for the rest of the winter.

If Bumgarner is re-signed to another extension, the Giants will add to their ledger of long-term deals and perhaps signal that they’re aiming to get back into contention right away. A Bumgarner trade, however, could lead one of two scenarios. First, the Giants could approach 2019 as a bit of a mini-rebuild, to add young talent and clear some money in order to make a renewed push for 2020. Secondly, the Giants could deal Bumgarner as part of a rebuild on the fly, adding some MLB-ready pieces that would help them fill some holes immediately.

This is complete speculation on my part, and admittedly dealing Bumgarner without getting at least one blue-chip prospect in return would be a bit of a waste. But, the Giants could explore moving Bumgarner along with either Belt or Evan Longoria in the same deal, accepting only a moderate return of either mid-range prospects, or perhaps a big league player who could help the Giants at another position (such as maybe a third baseman to replace Longoria). The Giants are reportedly looking to move Longoria, who struggled in his first season outside of Tampa Bay and is still owed over $73MM through 2022. As for Belt, he was the most productive of the Giants’ long-term assets, though dealing him would free up first base for some combination of other possibilities: giving a look to prospect Chris Shaw, Posey splitting time between first and catcher, or targeting a potentially underpriced asset in free agency or trade. Both Belt and Bumgarner have partial no-trade clauses that allow them to block deals to 10 and eight teams, respectively, so it could be a bit tricky finding a willing trade partner for this scenario who isn’t on either player’s no-trade list.

Such a deal would give San Francisco more flexibility with both roster construction and the payroll. After they (barely) ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold last season, the Giants reset their luxury penalization to zero, and they’ll pay only a first-timer minimum penalty should they surpass the $206MM payroll limit. So while the team doesn’t necessarily face any huge restraints in regards to spending, getting one big contract off the books is probably a logical step if the team is preparing to make another high-priced addition.

Signing Bryce Harper, of course, would be the biggest such move the Giants could make, though early reports have suggested the club isn’t going to be a major suitor for the 26-year-old free agent. San Francisco has the resources and the ownership track record to pursue just about any free agent, or to take on a big contract from another team in a trade, though it remains to seen if the Giants will be as aggressive in this regard under Zaidi as they were under the Brian Sabean/Bobby Evans regime.

If we’re mentioning Harper, it’s only fitting that we also at least throw Manny Machado’s name out there. While Zaidi just a few months removed from bringing Machado to the Dodgers in a trade, a Machado/Giants connection seems unlikely at best. To make room for Machado at third base or shortstop, San Francisco would have to move either Longoria or Crawford, and neither player has much in the way of immediate trade value thanks to their salaries and lackluster 2018 seasons (plus, Crawford’s contract grants him full no-trade protection). Eating money to facilitate a Longoria/Crawford trade and also paying $350MM+ for Machado doesn’t seem like a very realistic proposition.

The two corner outfield positions and second base are the most pressing areas of need around the diamond for the Giants. Barring trades, the other spots will be covered by Longoria at third base, Crawford at shortstop, Belt at first base, defensively-gifted youngster Steven Duggar in center field, and Posey receiving the bulk of playing time behind the plate (while also getting some rest games as a first baseman). A reunion with veteran backup catcher Nick Hundley has been mentioned as a likely possibility while Posey is on the mend, with youngster Aramis Garcia also in the mix.

Austin Slater, Mac Williamson, Gorkys Hernandez (if he isn’t non-tendered), utilityman Alen Hanson, and Shaw are in the mix for bench duty for perhaps a share of a platoon in left or right field. For at least one of the two outfield positions, however, the Giants will surely add an established everyday player, either on the trade front or in free agency. If a record-setting contract for Harper is too rich for the Giants’ blood, other free agent options include Michael Brantley or old friend Andrew McCutchen. A.J. Pollock is a center fielder by trade, though if he is willing to consider a position change, he and Duggar would be a great defensive pairing in AT&T Park’s expansive outfield (or Pollock could play center himself if Duggar isn’t ready for everyday action).

Marwin Gonzalez’s versatility makes him a good fit on most teams, though he’d be particularly useful to the Giants rotating between the corner outfield spots and second base. Joe Panik was a replacement-level player (0.1 fWAR) last season, and considering his lack of power, the downturn in his defensive metrics, and injury history — not to mention the glut of options on the second-base market — San Francisco could simply non-tender Panik and seek out a more reliable, cost-efficient, and/or controllable option. Jed Lowrie might be an interesting player to consider in this regard, as a familiar name to Zaidi from their time in Oakland and a quality player who wouldn’t require too lengthy a contract given his age (35 in April).

At a projected $4.2MM in arbitration, Panik isn’t a bank-breaker to retain, though the Giants could get themselves some extra cover at second base with a multi-position addition like Gonzalez. Not to say that the next Max Muncy or Chris Taylor is awaiting the Giants, but Zaidi’s Dodgers had a knack for finding those types of hidden-gem utility types. Looking elsewhere around the bench, Sandoval and Hanson line up as the utility options, and the Giants will have to sort through the aforementioned outfield candidates to figure out their backup situation. Williamson and Hernandez are both out of options, which could give them a leg up on the other possibilities.

San Francisco’s bullpen turned in a quietly solid year in 2018, headlined by Watson’s excellent year and Will Smith posting some strong numbers after returning from Tommy John surgery. Melancon also pitched well after making his season debut in June, and the Giants are hopeful that he can reclaim his old closer’s job and finally start to provide a quality return on that big contract. I’d guess the Giants might add another depth arm or two, though relief pitching doesn’t appear to be a major priority for the team this winter.

Losing Cueto is a big hit to the Giants’ rotation, though the team did find some unexpected starting help from rookies Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez last season. Those two 26-year-old arms are penciled into a starting five that features a lot of uncertainty, given Bumgarner’s trade situation, Samardzija’s health, and Chris Stratton’s inconsistency. Ty Blach and minor league righties Shaun Anderson and Tyler Beede could also fight for consideration in Spring Training, though Beede will have to strongly rebound from significant struggles at both Triple-A and in a brief big league cameo.

It would theoretically help the Giants quite a bit to add another front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher who could both contribute in 2019 and also anchor the starting staff in the future, should Bumgarner depart in free agency or be shipped out in a trade. Top free agents like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi could all fit the model as a long-term answer, or a shorter-term solution like J.A. Happ could also be considered. The Giants are one of several teams who have scouted Yusei Kikuchi and the organization’s interest in the Japanese left-hander dates back years, so San Francisco will certainly be a player if Kikuchi is posted as expected.

While the Giants could shop at the high end of the market, it’s worth noting that the team hasn’t had much luck on expensive pitching contracts in recent years, between the Cueto and Samardzija signings and Matt Cain’s extension. AT&T Park’s pitcher-friendly reputation make it a popular destination for relatively inexpensive veterans looking for a rebound year, so the Giants could pursue such arms in the hope of finding the next Derek Holland. The southpaw revived his career in San Francisco last season, posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.52 K/BB rate over 171 1/3 innings after signing a minor league contract that came with just a $1.5MM base salary. Holland is sure to land more in his latest trip through free agency, though his price tag won’t be too high for the Giants to consider a reunion.

There’s really no shortage of options facing Zaidi, who is open to any and all possibilities when it comes to getting the Giants on track as quickly as possible. A total rebuild doesn’t appear to be on the table this winter, nor does a major spending spree, but pretty much anything in between seems to be under consideration. The Giants could end up being as active and creative of any team this offseason, though it remains to be seen if enough can be done to get the club turned around in time to be a factor in what should be a competitive NL West in 2019.

AL East Notes: Sale, Swihart, Yankees, Chang, Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | November 18, 2018 at 9:05pm CDT

Some items from around the AL East…

Chris Sale is only under contract through the 2019 season, and his potential future in Boston “could be the key to the entire offseason” for the Red Sox, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. The Sox are sure to discuss an extension with Sale this winter, though if they don’t feel the southpaw will be staying beyond the coming season (or the team is wary of spending big money on Sale over the long term), then Mastrodonato believes landing another frontline pitcher will become an immediate priority. If the Red Sox are able to extend Sale or believe they’ll be able to re-sign him next offseason, starting pitching likely won’t be a pressing priority this winter. In my opinion, I’d guess the Red Sox would pursue some type of controllable starter regardless of what happens with Sale, given that Rick Porcello will also be a free agent next winter and Eduardo Rodriguez’s injury history makes him a bit of a question mark for 2019.
Also from Mastrodonato’s piece, he notes that the Red Sox will be bringing Blake Swihart to Spring Training as a catcher. With Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon ahead of Swihart on the catching depth chart, the team experimented with Swihart as a utility player last season in an attempt to get him into the lineup, with unremarkable results. While Swihart will continue to get some work at multiple positions, his trade value would be maximized if he could stick behind the plate. Swihart has been the focus of trade rumors for well over a year, and the Red Sox were known to have a very high asking price in talks with other teams as of last May. Those demands seemed high at the time, given Swihart’s struggles to break through as a Major League player, and he did little to raise his stock over the rest of the season.
The Yankees “pushed hard” to acquire infield prospect Yu Chang from the Indians when the two teams were discussing the Andrew Miller trade in the summer of 2016, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Chang has made steady progress since, with MLB.com currently ranking him as the sixth-best prospect in the Tribe’s system following a .256/.330/.411 performance over 518 PA at Triple-A last season. It isn’t known if New York still has Chang on its radar, though with the Yankees recently showing interest in trading for one of Cleveland’s top starters, Chang could become a target again if the two clubs expand talks into a multi-player trade. Pluto also notes that other teams have called the Indians about Chang in trade discussions.
Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Blue Jays are one of several teams that face losing at least one player, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. With newly-acquired Tyler Thornton requiring Rule 5 protection, Toronto currently has 36 players on its 40-man, with Davidi figuring that pitching prospects Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, and Yennsy Diaz will account for three of the four open spots. This leaves multiple Rule 5-eligible prospects vying for just one roster spot, though the Jays could also create more space with trades or releases before Tuesday’s deadline. Yangervis Solarte is a likely non-tender candidate, for instance, and there has been speculation has the Jays could part ways with former top prospect Dalton Pompey, who is out of options and seemingly buried on Toronto’s depth chart. Davidi’s piece also contains a broader overview of the challenges that teams face when they have a surplus of minor league talent at one or more positions, as a club can risk losing or overlooking someone simply due to lack of playing time, only to see that player blossom elsewhere.

International Transactions: 11/18/18

By Mark Polishuk | November 18, 2018 at 7:42pm CDT

Here’s the roundup of some familiar North American names heading to play ball overseas…

The KT Wiz of the Korean Baseball Organization has announced the signing of right-hander Raul Alcantara, according to San Kang of Sports Dong-A (hat tip to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz). The contract will pay Alcantara $650K for the coming KBO season. The righty was outrighted off the Athletics’ 40-man roster at the end of Spring Training, and then posted a 5.29 ERA, 5.7 K/9, and 3.79 K/BB rate over 83 1/3 innings for Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate, working as a starter in 10 of his 32 games. Over 46 1/3 IP for the A’s at the big league level in 2016-17, Alcantara managed just a 7.19 ERA, and he allowed a whopping 14 homers over that limited stretch.
In other news from the KBO, the Kia Tigers announced that they are working on a contract with outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker (hat tip to Dan Kurtz once again), though a deal is not yet official. Hazelbaker began the 2018 season as a member of the Diamondbacks organization before a pair of trades sent him to the Rays and then to the Twins, though he spend the entire season at the Triple-A level, hitting only .204/.298/.385 over 356 combined PA. The 31-year-old Hazelbaker posted a much better batting line in his brief exposure to Major League pitching in 2016-17, hitting .258/.327/.500 over 285 career plate appearances for the Cardinals and D’Backs. Originally a fourth-round pick for the Red Sox in 2009, Hazelbaker has bounced around six teams in his pro career and will now look for a change of scenery in South Korea.

MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | November 18, 2018 at 6:16pm CDT

Here’s the last week’s worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

A 10-9 win-loss record didn’t prevent Jacob deGrom from winning the NL Cy Young Award, though that record could impact what the Mets ace will earn in arbitration this winter. Matt Swartz, creator of MLBTR’s arbitration model, profiles deGrom’s unique situation in the first Arbitration Breakdown piece of the 2018-19 offseason, noting that deGrom could end up being an important precedent for other pitchers in future arbitration cases.
Speaking of arbitration, Tim Dierkes presents MLBTR’s annual list of potential non-tender candidates, listing 51 arb-eligible players whose teams could simply not tender them new contracts on the November 30th deadline. These players could also be candidates to be traded or released before November 30 — since Tim published his list, we’ve already seen one name (Justin Bour, formerly of the Phillies) hit the waiver wire.
Speaking of Phillies first basemen, Carlos Santana is rumored to be on the trade market less than a year after signing in Philadelphia, as the team is eager to end the Rhys Hoskins-as-an-outfielder experiment. Tim takes a look at some teams that could possibly fit as trade partners for the Phillies in finding a new spot for the veteran slugger.
Trading Santana is just one of many rumored moves in what is expected to be a very busy offseason for the Phillies. With the team linked to just about every big free agent and trade target on the market, the question has to be asked, how much do the Phillies have to spend on these acquisitions? In his first “Projecting Payrolls” piece for MLBTR, Rob Huff breaks down the Phillies’ projected payroll space for the coming offseason, based on such factors as their past spending habits, future commitments, team needs, and more.
Our preview of each team’s winter plans continued with seven new entries in the Offseason Outlook series. This week’s featured teams: the Mariners, Mets (both by Connor Byrne), Pirates, Nationals (both by Jeff Todd). Padres (by Jason Martinez), Yankees (by Steve Adams), and Red Sox (by Mark Polishuk).
Patrick Corbin is projected to land the biggest contract of any free agent starting pitcher, leading Ty Bradley to ask MLBTR’s readers which team will end up signing the star left-hander. The choice was clear, as over 55% of readers polled believe Corbin will return to his home state to sign with the Yankees.
We’ll wrap up this Phillies-centric week of original content with another poll, this one from Connor inquiring whether or not Philadelphia will wind up with Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper when the dust settles this winter. Interestingly, 32.67% of readers polled believe neither player will be a Phillie on Opening Day, with 27.34% predicting the Phillies will sign Harper and 25.77% calling a Machado signing.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 9:50pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

After celebrating their fourth World Series in 15 years, the Red Sox now have some significant holes to fill in the starting rotation and bullpen. They’ll also need to think about whether and how to keep their championship core together for the long term.

Guaranteed Contracts

David Price, SP: $127MM through 2022 (Price chose not to exercise his opt-out clause)
J.D. Martinez, DH/OF: $86.25MM through 2022 (Martinez can opt out after each of the next three seasons; Red Sox can potentially convert fourth and fifth seasons into mutual options)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $40MM through 2021
Rick Porcello, SP: $21MM through 2019
Chris Sale, SP: $15MM through 2019 (club option exercised)
Christian Vazquez, C: $13.55MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)
Mitch Moreland, 1B: $6.5MM through 2019
Eduardo Nunez, IF: $5MM through 2019 (exercised player option)

Obligations To Former Players

Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $23MM through 2019 (includes $5MM buyout of 2020 club option), minus prorated MLB minimum salary earned by Sandoval next season

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM
Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM
Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM
Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM
Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM
Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM
Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM
Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Thornburg

Free Agents

Craig Kimbrel, Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Kelly, Steve Pearce, Ian Kinsler, Drew Pomeranz, Brandon Phillips, Carson Smith

[Boston Red Sox offseason page][Boston Red Sox payroll information]

The Red Sox won 108 regular season games and then lost just three postseason contests en route to the Commissioner’s Trophy. The good news doesn’t end there for Boston fans, as the window is still wide open for another title. Potential AL MVP Mookie Betts and Hank Aaron Award-winning slugger J.D. Martinez are the cornerstones of a dynamic lineup that will also have Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. as Opening Day locks. Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello sit atop the rotation, with bullpen workhorses Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Ryan Brasier, and Hector Velazquez all returning.

That’s an awfully strong nucleus to start from, particularly for a team that can still account for less-stable positions with players already on the roster, and isn’t shy about making big trades or signings if external help is required. The Red Sox soared over the luxury tax threshold last season and are projected to be well over the line again in 2019, though they’ll get some help in that area by the fact that the luxury tax limit will rise from $197MM to $206MM. Hanley Ramirez’s salary is also now completely off the books; the $22MM he had earned annually will be needed to cover projected arbitration raises.

So, what will president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski do for an encore? His most immediate question is the bullpen, as closer Craig Kimbrel and setup man Joe Kelly are both headed for free agency. The hard-throwing Kelly has had his ups and downs in Boston, with a 4.33 ERA over 359 1/3 innings for the team and persistent control issues. When Kelly was on, however, he was hard to touch — over 11 1/3 IP during Boston’s World Series run, the right-hander allowed just one earned run while recording 13 strikeouts and no walks. It’s easy to see how a rival team could take a chance on Kelly as a closer or top setup option, and offer him a contract beyond what the Sox are willing to pay. Then again, there’s still a fit on paper in Boston, so it’s possible he’ll return.

Meanwhile, Boston may only have limited interest in bringing Kimbrel back.After Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen raised the bar on contracts for top closers, it could be that the Red Sox simply aren’t keen on spending the big money it will likely take to retain Kimbrel (MLBTR projects him for a four-year, $70MM contract). The Red Sox also stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer if Kimbrel signs elsewhere. Kimbral had another strong regular season — 2.74 ERA, 3.10 K/BB rate, 13.9 K/9 over 62 1/3 innings — yet didn’t quite hit elite levels, and he struggled mightily throughout the postseason.

If Kimbrel does leave, the Sox don’t have an obvious in-house saves candidate ready to step up to the unique pressure of Fenway Park in the ninth inning. Free agents like David Robertson, Zach Britton, or Andrew Miller could all be targets, or Boston could pursue trade options. This is assuming, of course, that the Red Sox will take a traditional approach to the closer role, as the club could prefer to add a versatile multi-inning arm (like a Miller) or two and then give manager Alex Cora a chance to mix and match his late-game options based on matchups.

Beyond the top three in the rotation, the combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, swingman Velazquez, and (health permitting) Steven Wright should be capable of accounting for at least one of the other rotation spots. This depth also comes in handy should Sale again run into any health issues, as Boston put a priority on keeping their ace as fit as possible for October. The Red Sox will likely add to this mix with at least one more starting arm. The team has the resources to check in on any of the top pitchers available on the free agent or trade markets, with a pursuit of Nathan Eovaldi standing out as a logical option. Eovaldi will still just be 29 on Opening Day, and looked as good during his two-plus months with the Red Sox as he has at any point in his career, both results-wise and in terms of his 97.2mph average fastball speed.

If not Eovaldi, Boston could look at other pitchers that could be longer-term answers for the rotation since both Sale and Porcello are entering the last year of their contracts. As good as the present looks for the Red Sox, Dombrowski will have to turn an eye to the future this offseason as several important players are approaching free agency. Sale, Porcello, and Bogaerts are all only controlled through 2019; Betts and Bradley will reach the open market after 2020; and Martinez can opt out of his contract after any of the next three seasons.

There have already been indications that Bogaerts and Martinez will test free agency, though the team will likely at least consider broaching extension talks with all of these parties. It will be interesting to see which players the Red Sox prioritize in negotiations, as it will provide significant information about their approach for the future. Bogaerts, Martinez, and Bradley are all represented by Scott Boras, whose clients tend to reach the open market rather than sign extensions. Sale has been nothing short of outstanding during his nine-year career, though with his lingering injury concerns, are the Red Sox prepared to make an expensive commitment to the southpaw as he enters his 30s? Could Boston also look to a different type of extension, and lock up a controllable player like Benintendi (scheduled for free agency after 2022) to a even longer-term deal?

Betts has preferred to take a year-to-year approach rather than sign an extension, a gamble that has thus far handsomely paid off for the superstar outfielder. Could his stance change if the Red Sox were to approach him with one of the biggest contracts in baseball history? The argument can certainly be made that Betts is deserving of such a pact based on what he has done through his age-25 season, and the Sox could get some obvious contact comps this winter in whatever record-breaking deals Bryce Harper and Manny Machado (both of whom are 26 themselves) find in the free agent market this winter.

The Sox are set in the outfield, DH, and shortstop, and we can pretty safely pencil Rafael Devers at third base and Mitch Moreland for a timeshare at first base next season. Despite below-average overall hitting numbers and a shaky glove in 2018, Devers is still only 22, and the former top prospect will certainly be given plenty of opportunity to break out. Moreland will continue to provide his solid defense and bat from the left side of the plate, though the Sox will need to find another right-handed first base as a platoon partner.

World Series MVP Steve Pearce filled that role in spectacular fashion after coming to Boston in midseason, and while his price tag may go up, the free agent market has been unfriendly enough to veteran first basemen in recent years that a re-signing is certainly feasible from Boston’s end. For Pearce, he may also welcome another crack at a ring rather than aim for a few extra dollars in free agency.

Could the Red Sox make a bigger splash at first base? That’s what we thought could be in store last winter before the team re-signed Moreland to a two-year contract, so Boston seems content for now to just stick with a platoon situation rather than deal Moreland and then pursue a bigger name in free agency or on the trade market. There’s also the possibility that the Sox might not want to block the position in the event that Devers needs to be moved to first base, as star prospect Michael Chavis is knocking on the door as a potential third baseman of the future. (Chavis himself has also seen some time at first base, plus young first baseman Sam Travis is still in the picture, albeit in need of a rebound from a lackluster Triple-A season.) All that said, there are some intriguing potential options and a move can’t be ruled out.

Catcher is another position where the team could theoretically stand pat with in-house options, as the duo of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon each posted outstanding framing numbers and were widely praised for their game-calling abilities. The Sox have enough big bats in the lineup that they could afford to devote one position entirely to defense, yet the near-total lack of offense generated by both Vazquez (42 wRC+) and Leon (33 wRC+) begs to be addressed in some fashion. Blake Swihart also contributed little at the plate while seeing some action at catcher as part of his super-utility duties.

The boldest move would be a trade for J.T. Realmuto, who will be targeted by every team in need of catching upgrades this winter. Vazquez or Swihart could go back to the Marlins as part of a trade package, though obviously Boston would need much more to pry Realmuto out of Miami. If the Red Sox aren’t willing or able to meet the Marlins’ price, they could aim lower by signing a free agent backstop like Kurt Suzuki or Robinson Chirinos or by taking over part of the contract of a pricey veteran such as Russell Martin. This would allow Vazquez to stay in the mix. The Sox have committed to him to some extent as their catcher of the future via their three-year contract extension, and Vazquez did post decent hitting numbers just in 2017. It remains to be seen exactly what the Sox will do with Swihart, who was kept despite a flurry of trade rumors last season, and whose stock has dropped even further after a forgettable 2018 season.

The experiment with Swihart as a utilityman led him to appear as one of the nine Red Sox players who played at least one game at second base last season, as the position became a revolving door thanks to Dustin Pedroia’s recurring knee problems. The longtime face of the Boston franchise was limited to just three games last season, leading the Sox to rotate several players through the keystone before Ian Kinsler was acquired at the deadline to solidify the position, though Kinsler didn’t play particularly well.

It’s an open question as to how much Pedroia will be able to contribute next season, especially since Dombrowski isn’t yet certain if the veteran infielder will be ready for Spring Training. Given Pedroia’s status within the organization (and the $40MM still owed to him through 2021), the Sox may have to hold off on any moves to address second base until they get more clarity on Pedroia’s health. If Pedroia isn’t an option, another in-season trade is likely, unless incumbent options Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, or maybe even longer-shot candidates like Chavis or even Swihart can all combine to handle the position.

A reasonably healthy and productive Pedroia, a step forward from Devers, and Vazquez returning to even his 2017 form would go a long way towards firming up three positions that were rather glaringly weak links last season. Even while receiving sub-replacement level production at second base, third base, and catcher all season, the 2018 Red Sox were still one of the best teams in recent baseball history. It’s a tribute to Cora’s work in the dugout and Dombrowski’s roster-building that Boston achieved what it did even with some notable flaws, and with another winter to address these areas and others, the possibility exists that next year’s Red Sox could be even better.

Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 3:32pm CDT

The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept. You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market. If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player. (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)

Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class. The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:

A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
Bryce Harper declined the Nationals’ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link). No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter). Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link). The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards. The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today. Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.

Hyun-Jin Ryu To Accept Dodgers’ Qualifying Offer

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 3:04pm CDT

3:04pm: Ryu will indeed accept the qualifying offer, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets.

12:01pm: Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is “most likely” going to accept the one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) hears from a source, though nothing has been finalized as of yet. The seven free agents who have qualifying offers pending have until 4pm CT today to accept or decline the one-year contracts.

Of those seven names, Ryu was the only one who seemed like a realistic candidate to accept the QO, given his significant injury history. Separate surgeries on Ryu’s shoulder and elbow cost him all of the 2015 season and limited him to just a single game in 2016, and a torn groin sidelined Ryu for almost three months of the 2018 campaign. The southpaw also had DL stints for more minor hip and foot issues in 2017.

These health concerns surely would’ve impacted Ryu’s stock on the free agent market, plus rejecting the qualifying offer would’ve meant that Ryu’s next team would’ve had to surrender draft picks and potentially international signing pool funds in order to sign him. The QO, Ryu’s health history, and his age (he turns 32 in March) all factored into a relatively modest placement for the left-hander on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list — Ryu was ranked 20th, with a projected three-year, $33MM contract (from the Dodgers).

If he does end up accepting the qualifying offer, Ryu would lock in a big payday for 2019 that is worth more than half of that $33MM projection. The $17.9MM salary, in fact, would represent just under half of Ryu’s entire Major League earnings to this point, as he originally signed a six-year, $36MM contract with Los Angeles for over the 2013-18 seasons. He’ll get another opportunity to prove that he can remain healthy over a full season, while doing so in a familiar environment of Dodger Stadium and playing for a contending team. Ryu is also ineligible to ever receive another qualifying offer in any future trips into the free agent market, and thus wouldn’t have any further draft pick/international money compensation attached to his services.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, committing $17.9MM to an oft-injured starter is something of a risk, considering that the team already has several rotation options in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda, and Alex Wood (not to mention youngsters like Brock Stewart or Caleb Ferguson). Starting pitching depth has been a centerpiece of the Dodgers’ success, however, as the team has dealt with injuries to virtually all of its starters over the last few years. Even in the unlikely event that all of these arms stay healthy, the Dodgers could still deploy the excess pitchers in the bullpen — Wood, Stripling, and Maeda all spent time as relievers down the stretch last season.

Furthermore, Ryu pitched so well in 2018 that the Dodgers felt a one-year, $17.9MM investment was worth seeing if the lefty could stay healthy and duplicate his performance. Ryu posted a 1.97 ERA, 5.93 K/BB rate, and 9.7 K/9 over 82 1/3 innings last season, with a 90.2 mph average fastball that was in line with his pre-surgery velocity. There also wasn’t much batted-ball luck baked into Ryu’s numbers, as his wOBA and xwOBA were a perfect match (.268).

Ryu would become the sixth free agent to ever accept a qualifying offer, of the 80 who have been issued the one-year deals since the QO system was introduced for the 2012-13 offseason. Ryu’s situation bears a lot of similarities to that of Brett Anderson, whose own lengthy injury history also factored into his decision to accept a qualifying offer from the Dodgers following the 2015 season rather than test free agency.

Quick Hits: Castellanos, Astros, deGrom, Riggleman, Free Agents

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 2:18pm CDT

The Astros made an offer to the Tigers for right fielder Nick Castellanos prior to last July’s trade deadline, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Houston was known to be aggressively pursuing a big outfield bat last summer, even to the point of almost completing a trade with the Nationals for Bryce Harper, and also inquiring about Tommy Pham (then with the Cardinals) and White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia. Fenech suggests that Castellanos could again be a target for the Astros this offseason, and he explores in a longer piece for the Detroit Free Press that it is becoming increasingly likely that the Tigers will trade Castellanos due to a lack of extension talks between the two sides.

Castellanos would help the Astros as either a corner outfielder or, perhaps more likely, as a DH given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and the fact that incumbent Houston designated hitter Evan Gattis is hitting free agency. Since Castellanos is only controlled through the 2019 season, he would give the Astros a short-term boost in their quest for another World Series while also not serving as a long-term block to youngsters Tyler White, Kyle Tucker, and J.D. Davis.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/12/18

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 1:11pm CDT

The latest minor league transactions from around baseball…

The Brewers announced (Twitter link) the signing of left-hander Angel Perdomo to a minor league deal with an invitation to their big league Spring Training camp. Baseball America ranked Perdomo as the 18th-best prospect in the Blue Jays’ minor league system prior to the 2017 season, though the southpaw hit something of a wall in high-A ball, spending the last two seasons at the level and posting a modest 3.67 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate, and 9.6 K/9 over 154 2/3 innings. The 24-year-old Perdomo did miss time to injuries in each of the last two years, however, so better health and a fresh start in Milwaukee’s organization could get his career back on track.

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