Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?
Just over a week ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no other division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East provides the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the only other division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projects to not include a 90-loss team. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this year figures to be even more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA projects both the Pirates and Reds to finish with a lower win total than any of the teams in the AL East, while Fangraphs projects the East as the only division in the majors without a sub-.500 club.
That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:
Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2
The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.
With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.
While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.
Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9
The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.
Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.
Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.
Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6
The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.
Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.
While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.
Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7
After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge‘s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.
That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.
Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.
Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2
It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.
The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.
Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.
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On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?
Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!
Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?
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Orioles 52% (6,078)
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Yankees 28% (3,344)
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Blue Jays 8% (908)
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Rays 6% (715)
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Red Sox 6% (689)
Total votes: 11,734
Giants Notes: Davis, Pederson, Ahmed
San Francisco’s reported agreement with third baseman Matt Chapman last night added an elite defender and quality hitter to a lineup that’s already added Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler this winter as the Giants look to bolster their offense after posting a 93 wRC+ as a team last year, which was a bottom-ten figure in the majors. With that being said, the deal seemingly leaves another veteran bat without a clear home in J.D. Davis.
Davis, 31 next month, is set to hit free agency after the 2024 campaign and seems unlikely to find a regular role in San Francisco this season with Soler at DH, Chapman at the hot corner, and LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores expected to handle first base. That reality could spur the Giants to make a trade in the near future, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The veteran infielder hit a roughly league average .248/.325/.413 in 144 games with the Giants last year, but had established himself as a well-above average bat in the four years prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing .276/.363/.457 with a 127 wRC+ during that time. That upside could make Davis an attractive target for a team lacking in certainty at the infield corners, such as the Cubs, Mariners, or Brewers, potentially allowing the club to shed his $6.9MM salary and free up additional payroll space for a possible pursuit of southpaw Blake Snell.
For Davis’s part, he told reporters (including Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle) that the club’s decision to sign Chapman was “definitely surprising,” adding that he hadn’t communicated with the front office regarding the decision of his future to this point before referencing the club’s handling of veteran shortstop Brandon Crawford during his final year with the club and free agency this winter.
“I didn’t get a phone call, Brandon Crawford didn’t get a phone call,” Davis said, as relayed by Rubin. “It is what it is. It’s part of the business. I know every management is different in how they handle things and that’s just one of the characteristics you just have to live with.”
More from around San Francisco…
- While Crawford recently expressed disappointment regarding how his tenure in San Francisco ended, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that no such acrimony exists between the club and slugger Joc Pederson, who departed the club to sign with the Diamondbacks earlier this winter. While Pederson told Slusser that he retains a strong relationship with both president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and that the Giants even made him an offer this winter, though he added that Arizona “expressed more interest” and presented him with a stronger offer. Pederson spent the past two seasons playing for San Francisco, slashing a strong .255/.351/.470 in 255 games with the club across the two campaigns.
- Shortstop Nick Ahmed recently spoke to reported, including The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, regarding his decision to sign with the Giants on a non-roster deal this spring. The two-time Gold Glove award winner had spent parts of ten seasons with the Diamondbacks prior to becoming a free agent for the first time in his career back in September, and the soon to be 34-year-old veteran indicated that while he had some conversations with the Cardinals this winter before they signed Crawford to a one-year deal last month. With that being said, Ahmed indicated that he was enticed to sign in San Francisco when Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin indicated to him that he would have the opportunity the everyday job at shortstop with the club this spring. A career .234/.288/.376 hitter, Ahmed has made up for a lack of offensive production throughout his career with elite defensive numbers and figures to battle with youngsters Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt for the shortstop job throughout the final month of Spring Training.
Brandon Crawford Discusses Departure From Giants
Veteran shortstop Brandon Crawford recently signed with the Cardinals on a one-year, $2MM deal, officially bringing to a close his 13-season tenure at shortstop for the Giants in the majors as well as his sixteen years as a member of the organization. Crawford recently spoke to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic regarding the first foray into free agency of his career and his departure from San Francisco. In doing so, he emphasized that returning to the Giants was a priority for him, but that the sentiment was not reciprocated by San Francisco brass.
“The bottom line is I was not wanted back by the one person whose (opinion) matters,” Crawford told Baggarly in reference to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Crawford went on to note that his camp gave the Giants an opportunity to counter after receiving the offer of a big league deal from the Cardinals last month, though San Francisco offered the veteran only a non-roster deal with an invitation to Spring Training.
2023 was a difficult season for the veteran, as he slashed just .194/.273/.314 in 320 trips to the plate while battling knee, hamstring, calf, and forearm issues throughout the season. Crawford’s defense, once universally regarded as elite, also began to slip somewhat last season. While Statcast‘s Outs Above Average placed him in the 90th percentile of qualified fielders with a +6 figure, Fielding Bible‘s Defensive Runs Saved considered him to be among the worst-fielding shortstops in the majors last year with -14 runs. All of Crawford’s numbers were a far cry from the elite production he posted during his 2021 campaign, when he slashed an excellent .298/.373/.522 at the plate while posting +16 OAA and +6 DRS in the field.
Even as Crawford’s production last year certainly left something to be desired, it’s still somewhat surprising that the Giants seemingly had minimal interest in retaining a face of the franchise with three All-Star appearances and two World Series titles with the club under his belt. After all, he’s just two seasons removed from that aforementioned dominant season that saw him earn his fourth career Gold Glove award while finishing fourth in NL MVP voting. While Crawford’s age-37 season is unlikely to see the veteran outproduce the club’s young, internal options at short such as Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt, the veteran indicated to Baggarly that he made clear in a meeting with Zaidi back in November that he would accept a bench role to remain in San Francisco while mentoring the aforementioned young players.
Zaidi also commented on the situation to Baggarly, noting that while Crawford has “been an important member of this team and a real leader in the clubhouse” and stated his willingness to accept a smaller role with the club in 2024, he had concerns that Crawford’s presence would put additional pressure on the club’s young players to perform and potentially hinder their development.
“Having the greatest shortstop in franchise history on the bench … it was just going to create a dynamic where it was going to be harder for our young players to play with a margin of error,” Zaidi told Baggarly.
In addition, Zaidi indicated that Crawford, who had never appeared in the majors at a position other than shortstop until working a single inning on the mound last year, may not have been able to provide the club with the positional versatility necessary to secure a spot on the club’s bench. While the club seemingly intended to move Crawford off shortstop last season should their now-infamous failed deal with Carlos Correa have been finalized, Zaidi suggested the club was hoping to fill out its bench with a player both capable of playing the infield and the outfield as well as a potential threat on the basepaths.
Crawford has never played the outfield at any professional level and has just 47 stolen bases for his career, with his only 10-steal season coming during his career season back in 2021. Given those limitations, it seems the Giants preferred to go with one of the club’s internal bench options rather than commit to Crawford on a big league deal. In conversation with Baggarly, Zaidi pointed to Tyler Fitzgerald as one player already in the organization who fits the versatile role the club is hoping to fill, with Otto Lopez and Brett Wisely among other speculative options already on the club’s 40-man roster.
The Opener: Free Agency, Bench Bats, Brash
As the calendar flips to March, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. When will the remaining free agents sign?
A whopping seven free agents in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 remain on the open market. That list includes not only three of the so-called “Boras Four” in Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman, but also a pair of quality DH candidates in J.D. Martinez and Brandon Belt along with a pair of solid #4 starters in Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen. By contrast, the only player in last offseason’s top 50 who remained on the open market into march was veteran outfielder Jurickson Profar. There’s other quality free agents who didn’t make our offseason Top 50 that remain on the market as well, such as veteran outfielders Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall. While it seemed as though outfielder Cody Bellinger accepting a short-term deal with the Cubs earlier this week could’ve signaled the dam breaking on remaining free agents, so far that hasn’t come to fruition. Will the remaining players available begin putting pen to paper with Opening Day now less than a month away?
2. Yankees, Red Sox in the market for bench bats?
With so many free agents still available, its no surprise that clubs are still looking to upgrade their rosters even with Spring Training in full swing. That appears to be true of both the Yankees and the Red Sox as things stand, with Boston reportedly interested in adding depth to their position player mix. The club appears to prefer adding a right-handed bat to complement their bevy of left-handed options for the lineup, as they’ve been linked to the likes of Garrett Cooper and Gio Urshela over the past week before they signed with the Cubs and Tigers, respectively.
In the Bronx, meanwhile, the Yankees were a finalist for utility man Enrique Hernandez according to Hernandez himself, suggesting the club is interested in finding a possible alternative to youngster Oswald Peraza on the club’s bench. That could leave the longtime rivals to compete over the remaining bench bats on the free agent market, particularly those with right-handed bats and experience on the infield dirt. The likes of Donovan Solano, Elvis Andrus, and Jean Segura remain on the market as players who check those boxes and could be plausible targets for either club.
3. Brash updated expected today:
The Mariners are reportedly concerned that right-hander Matt Brash could face an extended absence due to as-of-yet unspecified arm troubles. Clarity on Brash’s health and timetable for return could be on the horizon, however, as reporting yesterday indicated that the club hopes to have a formal update regarding the righty as soon as today. Brash, 26 in May, led the majors with 78 appearances last year and dominated in doing so, posting a 3.05 ERA and a sterling 2.26 FIP in 70 2/3 innings of work while striking out opponents and a fantastic 34.7% clip. A lengthy absence from Brash would remove one of the most promising arms from Seattle’s bullpen, though the club enjoys considerable depth in that area with the likes of Andres Munoz, Gregory Santos, and Greg Speier also available for late-inning duty.
The Opener: Skenes, Holliday, Muncy, Stanek
With the final day of February upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Skenes vs. Holliday:
Prospect lovers won’t want to miss today’s game between the Pirates and Orioles, where the first-overall picks of the past two seasons are set to clash. Right-hander Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick of the 2023 draft and a consensus top-10 prospect in the game, is poised to face shortstop Jackson Holliday, the top pick of the 2022 draft and the consensus top prospect in the entire sport. Fans interested in seeing the matchup won’t have to wait very long, as Holliday told reporters this morning (including MLB.com’s Jake Rill) that he’s set to open the top of the first inning today as Baltimore’s lead off hitter, leaving him to be the very first batter Skenes faces today. If that matchup isn’t enticing enough for you, Skenes will be taking the mound opposite newly-minted Orioles ace Corbin Burnes. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm CT this afternoon.
2. Muncy to undergo testing:
Dodgers infielder Max Muncy was struck in the hand by a pitch from Rangers left-hander Cody Bradford during yesterday’s game, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale relaying that the slugger has been diagnosed with a contusion, according to manager Dave Roberts. The Dodgers’ skipper added that Muncy is set to undergo “precautionary” x-rays today. A mainstay of the L.A. lineup since he broke out with the club during the 2018 season, Muncy has slashed .230/.356/.486 in 751 games while clubbing 175 homers in a Dodgers uniform. That includes last year’s .212/.333/.475 slash line, which was good for a wRC+ of 118. Should Muncy miss time due to the injury, the club would likely be left to turn to youngster Miguel Vargas at the hot corner to open the season.
3. Where will Stanek land?
While most discussion of the free agent market has been focused on the “Boras Four” in recent weeks, right-hander Ryne Stanek stands out as the clear best reliever remaining on the open market. While his 4.09 ERA and 4.60 FIP last year were both rather pedestrian, he’s just one season removed from dominating to a 1.15 ERA and 3.05 FIP in 54 2/3 innings of work and sports a strong 27.8% strikeout rate for his career. Those numbers would make him at least a solid middle reliever for any bullpen in the majors. The righty has been connected to the Cubs, Red Sox, and Mets so far this winter, though other clubs are surely also in the mix.
Stanek’s market has been quiet since the calendar flipped to February. Chicago has seemingly backed off its pursuit despite mutual interest, while the Mets added a different high-octane bullpen arm to their mix in Shintaro Fujinami. It’s possible that injuries around the game could spur a club to shore up their bullpen mix with Stanek as Spring Training continues; yesterday alone saw injury scares for the Guardians and Mariners (Trevor Stephan and Matt Brash, respectively). Will the veteran righty’s market begin to pick up as the calendar flips to March?
The Opener: Yamamoto Debut, Free Agents, Giants
As MLB Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Yamamoto to make stateside debut:
For the second day in a row, a newly-signed Dodgers superstar will make his first in-game appearance for the club this spring. Yesterday, Shohei Ohtani stepped up to the plate for the first time in a Dodgers uniform and crushed a home run later on in the game. Today, L.A. fans will hope to be similarly dazzled by right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed the largest free agent contract in MLB history for a pitcher back in December despite not having pitched in the majors previously. The 25-year-old pitched to a sterling 1.24 ERA in 23 starts for NPB’s Orix Buffaloes last season, his fourth season in the last five years where he posted a sub-2.00 ERA. In his first stateside matchup, Yamamoto will take on left-hander Cody Bradford and the reigning World Series champion Rangers at 2:05pm CT.
2. Could Snell or Chapman be the next marquee free agent to sign?
The quartet of top free agents attempting to wait out the market for a better contract shrunk to three over the weekend when Cody Bellinger and the Cubs reunited on an opt-out laden three-year deal. Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman all continue to linger in free agency with March just around the corner.
Snell has been most frequently connected to the Yankees throughout the winter, and reporting yesterday indicated that the sides have continued to discuss scenarios this week, even as a deal remains an extreme long shot. As of last night, the Giants are reportedly still in the mix for both Snell and Chapman, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle citing one source in saying there’s about a 50% chance the team lands one of the two. With spring training in full swing and Opening Day just one month away, the waiting game could finally draw to a close sooner than later.
3. Are the Giants down a starter?
One factor that might be impacting the Giants’ pursuit of Snell is the health of right-hander Tristan Beck, who left camp yesterday to undergo testing on his right-hand back in San Francisco. Beck, 27, pitched to a solid 3.92 ERA and 4.00 FIP with the club last year, though only three of his 33 appearances in the big leagues came as a starter. Despite that limited starting experience, Beck appeared slated to enter his sophomore season as the club’s fifth starter behind Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, and Keaton Winn.
With Sean Hjelle and Ethan Small among the next best options for the rotation should Beck miss time, an injury of any note could push San Francisco to attempt to add a starter before Opening Day. While there’s an obvious potential connection between Beck’s health and the Giants’ reported interest in Snell, the club wouldn’t necessarily have to turn to the top of the free agent market to replace or even improve upon Beck’s expected production. After all, other quality arms remain available on the open market such as right-handers Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen, the latter of whom MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored plausible fits for just yesterday.
Cubs Re-Sign Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger is back with the Cubs. Chicago officially announced his re-signing on a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has scheduled a press conference for Wednesday to welcome him back to the fold. Chicago cleared the necessary 40-man roster spot with this afternoon’s trade sending Bailey Horn back to the White Sox.
Bellinger, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $80MM. The deal pays him $30MM for the upcoming season. He’ll have a $30MM salary for 2025 and be paid $20MM if he remains on the contract in 2026. The deal contains an approximate $26.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes.
Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year deal with the club last winter and delivering an excellent platform campaign. In 556 trips to the plate, the 28-year-old slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases while splitting time between center field and first base for Chicago. That performance earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting and seemingly left him poised to cash in this winter with a major contract. MLBTR ranked Bellinger as the #2 free agent in this year’s class behind only two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, predicting a 12-year, $264MM deal for the outfielder in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.
As Bellinger’s offseason dragged on, it became apparent a $200MM+ commitment would not be in the cards. In his recent Wednesday mailbag, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $90MM deal with a pair of opt-outs. While Bellinger entered the winter with plenty of big market clubs seemingly in the running for his services including the Giants, Yankees, and Blue Jays, each pivoted in other directions throughout the month of December: San Francisco landed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to patrol center, Juan Soto was shipped to the Bronx to fill the left-handed void in their outfield mix, and the Blue Jays changed course after missing out on Shohei Ohtani to instead focus on smaller deals for players such as Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors outside of the incumbent Cubs, though his free agency continued into Spring Training as his camp held out for a long term deal while the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained steadfast in waiting out the market. Ultimately, Chicago was rewarded for its patience, as the club will retain Bellinger’s services for at least the 2024 campaign on a relatively low-cost deal similar to the three-year, $105MM deal fellow Boras Corporation client Carlos Correa signed with the Twins two offseasons ago.
A number of factors beyond his relatively small number of suitors likely contributed to Bellinger signing a short-term deal. Excellent as he was in 2023, the slugger struggled badly while contending with shoulder issues and a fractured fibula during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Though he managed to take the field for 900 plate appearances across the two seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 during that time, a far cry from the career .273/.364/.567 slash line he entered the 2021 season with that earned him Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.
While Bellinger’s 
strong and healthy 2023 campaign certainly helped to assuage the concerns brought on by his dismal campaigns in the prior two seasons, a look at his advanced metrics reveals some cause for concern that the 28-year-old’s 2023 campaign may not be entirely sustainable. While Bellinger’s career-best batting average last season was supported by a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, it was also propped up by a .319 BABIP that eclipsed his career .277 mark entering the 2023 season by more than 40 points.
That leap in good batted ball fortune came in spite of unusually low contact quality peripherals. Per Statcast, Bellinger’s average exit velocity, barrel rate, and Hard-Hit percentage were all well below average, landing in the 22nd, 27th, and 10th percentile respectively among qualified major leaguers. Taken together, those peripheral numbers left Bellinger with a roughly league average xwOBA of just .330 last year, 40 points below his excellent .370 wOBA. Between his pronounced struggles in recent seasons and the concerning peripherals underlying his 2023 return to form, it’s not a complete shock that Bellinger would land a short-term, opt-out heavy deal that preserves flexibility rather than a lengthy deal that maximizes guarantee.
Such a contract could set Bellinger up for a much more significant payday in the future. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in his recent look at the possibility of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually young for a free agent and, as such, may be uniquely suited for a short-term arrangement. If Bellinger can maintain a similar level of production to his 2023 rebound, he’ll be a near lock to opt out of the remaining two years and $50MM on his deal and return to free agency, where he would be marketing his age-29 campaign and be unimpeded by the Qualifying Offer, which the Cubs extended to Bellinger this winter. Next year’s free agent class is also likely to benefit from additional certainty regarding the ongoing Diamond Sports bankruptcy, which has impacted the TV deals of some contenders such as the Rangers and Twins. Those clubs were joined in mostly standing pat by big spending clubs such as the Padres and Mets that faced exorbitant luxury tax bills last year and took this offseason as an opportunity to reset.
In the meantime, Bellinger will return to Chicago, where he immediately improves the club’s lineup and odds of contention in a crowded NL Central dramatically. Bellinger’s 134 wRC+ and .525 slugging led all Cubs hitters with at least 100 trips to the plate last year, while he ranked fourth in terms of on-base percentage. The slugger also provides a much-needed lefty bat to a lineup who complements righty hitters in the lineup such as Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner. In addition to providing the club’s lineup with potentially impactful offense, Bellinger’s versatility offers the Cubs flexibility as they look to incorporate their bevy young hitters into the big league lineup on a regular basis.
Infielder Michael Busch is likely to enter the season as the club’s regular first baseman after the club acquired him from the Dodgers in a deal last month, leaving Bellinger to begin the season as the club’s everyday option in center field. With that being said, top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong lurks after making his big league debut last September and sports 80-grade defense in center field. The club’s reunion with Bellinger takes pressure off Crow-Armstrong, who went hitless in 19 plate appearances during his cup of coffee last fall, to immediately produce at the big league level and allows the Cubs to continue his development at Triple-A to open the year.
Should Crow-Armstrong prove himself ready to take on the everyday job in center sometime this season, Bellinger could shift to an outfield corner, first base, or even DH depending on the health and production of the rest of the lineup. One possibility for the Cubs would be either Busch or Morel establishing themselves as a capable defender at third base, allowing the other to handle DH duties. In that case, Bellinger would be able to move to first base and make room for Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in center, though that’s just one possible option for a Cubs team that could even see 2023 first-round Matt Shaw or top corner outfield prospect Owen Caissie debut sometime this year after strong performances in Double-A last season.
The reunion with Bellinger likely serves as a capstone for an offseason that saw Chicago also land left-hander Shota Imanaga and veteran relief arm Hector Neris in free agency. Club chairman Tom Ricketts recently indicated that the club was unlikely to exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold this winter, and RosterResource projects the club for a $234MM payroll in 2024 for CBT purposes, less than $3MM below the first $237MM threshold. That means a reversal of the stance would be nearly mandatory for the club to make further additions this winter, barring a trade that clears salary elsewhere on the roster.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cubs and Bellinger had agreed to a three-year, $80MM contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Opener: Ohtani Debut, Potential Cubs Trade, MLBTR Chat
As Spring Training continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:
1. Ohtani to make Dodgers debut:
The Dodgers had their first Cactus League game against the Padres last week in preparation for the Korea Series in Seoul next month, though superstar offseason addition Shohei Ohtani has not yet made his first spring appearance for the club. That’ll change today, as the Dodgers have announced that Ohtani will make his debut in today’s game against the White Sox. Left-hander Garrett Crochet will take the mound for the White Sox opposite Dodgers youngster Bobby Miller, with the game scheduled for 2:05pm CT. The two-way superstar will be limited to only hitting this year as he rehabs from elbow surgery, though he’ll be building off an incredible 2023 campaign that saw him slash a whopping .304/.412/.654 in 135 games while hitting an AL-best 44 home runs en route to his second MVP award in three years.
2. Cubs working on potential trade?
Center fielder Cody Bellinger‘s deal with the Cubs has not yet been made official, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic indicated yesterday that the Cubs are trying to work out a trade to clear space on the 40-man roster. Per Sharma, Chicago hopes to move a pitcher off its 40-man roster via trade in the coming days rather than risk losing a player for nothing on waivers. Speculatively speaking, that could mean the Cubs are shopping an arm towards the back of their bullpen depth chart such as Keegan Thompson, Jose Cuas, or Yency Almonte, or perhaps even a prospect such as Porter Hodge or Caleb Kilian. Sharma went on to suggest that if a trade cannot be worked out quickly, the Cubs could still designate a player for assignment in hopes that a trade of that player could be finalized over the seven-day window following the DFA.
3. MLBTR Chat today:
While teams around the league are already participating in Cactus and Grapefruit League games, a handful of the winter’s top free agents remain unsigned and plenty of offseason shopping lists around the league remain unfulfilled. Are you wondering if there’s more in store for your team as camps open in Arizona and Florida? If so, tune in this afternoon when MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosts a live chat with readers at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after its completed.
The Opener: Boras Four, Cubs, Hernandez
As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. The “Boras Four” is down to three:
The big news over the weekend was center fielder Cody Bellinger returning to the Cubs on a three-year deal worth $80MM with opt-outs after the 2024 and 2025 seasons. With free agency’s top remaining hitter now signed, the so-called “Boras Four” is now down to three, with southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as well as third baseman Matt Chapman still lingering on the market. Now that one of the quartet of high-profile Boras Corporation clients has agreed to a short-term deal, will any of the others follow suit?
Montgomery has been loosely connected to the Red Sox throughout the offseason, though the latest reporting has indicated Boston only has interest in the event that his price comes down. It’s a similar story for Snell, who reportedly had an offer on the table from the Yankees last week with negotiations seemingly at a standstill. Chapman’s market is somewhat murkier at this point. He had been connected to Chicago prior to the club’s reunion with Bellinger, but the Cubs have not indicated a willingness to surpass the luxury tax — which would likely preclude them from further significant additions. The Giants have also been connected to Chapman frequently throughout the winter, with some reporting indicating the third baseman is their “top target,” though it’s unclear where negotiations between the sides stand at this point.
2. Bellinger deal to be made official:
As noted by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Cubs and Bellinger have wasted no time in moving forward now that a deal is in place, with Bellinger having already arrived at camp to take his physical yesterday. Assuming the physical didn’t turn up anything unexpected, that could put the deal in position to be officially announced sometime today. The Cubs have a full 40-man roster as things stand, meaning they’ll need to make a corresponding move to make room for Bellinger.
Barring a surprise injury announcement, the club has no clear candidates for the 60-day injured list, meaning that they’ll likely need to designate a player towards the back of the 40-man for assignment. Another option would be to work out a trade that would clear roster space. Chicago benefited from that sort of trade earlier this winter when the club acquired infield prospect Michael Busch and right-hander Yency Almonte for non-40-man prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope in a deal that cleared two roster spots for the Dodgers.
3. Hernandez nearing decision?
Veteran utility player Enrique Hernandez was reportedly nearing a decision entering the weekend. While no deal ultimately came together, a list of four finalists for the 32-year-old’s services was reported that suggested he was choosing between the Giants, Padres, Twins, and Angels. Hernandez is among the most versatile players in the game with the glove. He’s spent more than a thousand innings in center field and at both middle infield spots in addition to hundreds of innings in the outfield corners, significant time at third base, and even occasional cameos at first. He touts a solid .257/.343/.458 slash line against lefties, though he’s typically posted below-average offense against righties, which limits his ceiling as an everyday player. Nonetheless, Hernandez figures to improve the depth of any club he signs with significantly. Which team will ultimately land the veteran?
Red Sox Notes: Crawford, Mata, Yoshida
While the Red Sox indicated early in the offseason that addressing the starting rotation would be a priority for the club this winter, it seems they’ll go into the 2024 season having only swapped out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito, at least barring a late bid for Jordan Montgomery. Should the club stick with its internal options for the rotation mix, Sean McAdam of MassLive relayed comments from manager Alex Cora regarding the state of the rotation yesterday. Per McAdam, Cora suggested that right-handers Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, and Nick Pivetta are all locked into the rotation to open the season. Meanwhile, McAdam adds that Cora indicated Kutter Crawford would have a “leg up” over each of Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Josh Winckowski in the battle for the final two rotation spots.
That Giolito and Bello are locked into rotation spots entering the season is hardly a surprise, given the pair are the only two hurlers on the club’s staff to make at least 25 starts last year. Likewise, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Whitlock, Houck, and Winckowski are under consideration for a role at the back of the club’s rotation. Each righty made at least one start for the club last year and the trio of young hurlers all figure to be key pieces of the club’s pitching plans this season, whether in starting roles or in relief.
That being said, it’s something of a surprise that Cora indicated Pivetta has a more firm grasp on a rotation spot than Crawford. The 31-year-old Pivetta was dominant for the Red Sox in a multi-inning relief last year with a 3.05 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work, while he pitched to a far more pedestrian 4.66 ERA in sixteen starts in 2023. Crawford, by contrast, Made 23 starts for the Red Sox last year and pitched to a 4.20 ERA with an excellent 3.64 FIP after joining the rotation full time in early June. Cora’s characterization of Crawford’s position in the rotation mix also represent a slight departure from comments chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made last month, where he suggested that Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, and Crawford all were set to enter camp as members of the rotation.
More from around Red Sox camp…
- Right-hander Bryan Mata has been shut down due to a pulled hamstring, Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) this morning. A timetable for Mata’s return is not yet clear. The 24-year-old right-hander has not yet made his big league debut but figured to enter Spring Training with a strong chance to earn a job in the club’s bullpen this spring. Mata does not have options remaining, meaning that he must be carried on the club’s active roster or else designated for assignment and exposed to waivers, running the risk that a rival club would claim him. If Mata’s absence proves to be a lengthy one, of course, he could open the season on the 15- or 60-day injured list, thereby delaying the need for Boston to make a decision regarding his future.
- WEEI’s Rob Bradford spoke to outfielder Masataka Yoshida today, and Yoshida revealed that he underwent surgery on his jaw shortly after the 2023 season. According to Yoshida, the issue didn’t “necessarily” impact him from a baseball perspective during the 2023 season, though he noted that the surgery alleviated discomfort that nagged him during everyday use of his jaw. Yoshida appeared in 140 games for Boston during his first MLB season last year, slashing a respectable .289/.338/.445 in the first year of his five-year, $90MM pact with the Red Sox. Yoshida figures to look to improve on his 2023 campaign this season after he slowed down a bit in the second half last year, slashing just .254/.278/.386 over his final 62 games after entering the All Star break with an excellent .316/.382/.492 slash line.