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Red Sox Notes: Whitlock, Matz, Arroyo

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The Red Sox are making an effort to retain free agent starter Eduardo Rodríguez, but the club has myriad avenues to potentially address their rotation. Right-hander Garrett Whitlock could be an option, as chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) the team is open to the possibility of stretching him out as a starter in 2022.

The 25-year-old Whitlock spent essentially his entire career in the Yankees’ system as a starter, topping out with 120 2/3 innings across three levels in 2018. After plucking him away from their archrival in the Rule 5 draft, the Sox moved him into a bullpen role. That’s typical for a Rule 5 draftee, since teams often prefer to break those unproven players in with lower-leverage innings. But Whitlock proved to be one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, earning himself a role of higher import as he continued to thrive. Ultimately, Whitlock tossed 73 1/3 innings across 46 relief outings (with another 8 1/3 frames in five postseason appearances). He posted a 1.96 ERA with a strong 27.2% strikeout percentage and a tiny 5.7% walk rate.

Moving Whitlock out of the relief role in which he’s been so effective isn’t without risk, but public scouting reports have long suggested he might be a viable starter. His debut campaign offered support for that idea, as Whitlock worked with a three-pitch mix and demonstrated plus control. He did have pronounced platoon splits — lefties hit .293/.349/.475 off him, while righties managed just a .199/.243/.278 mark — that could suggest he’s better deployed situationally, but it’s sensible for the front office to keep the rotation possibility open.

Looking outside the organization, the Sox are also among the teams with early interest in free agent starter Steven Matz, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Boston is certainly one of many clubs in contact with the southpaw’s representatives at Icon Sports Management, and Sherman adds the Tigers and Angels as other potential suitors, in addition to the incumbent Blue Jays.

Matz is coming off his third solid season in the past four years, having worked to a 3.82 ERA/4.12 SIERA across 150 2/3 frames with Toronto. The Jays didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so signing Matz wouldn’t cost a team draft pick compensation. Entering his age-31 campaign, he looks to have a strong case to land a three-year deal.

While the Sox have seemingly focused primarily on the rotation during the first couple days of the offseason, Bloom tells Speier (separate post) that Boston could look into options at second base as well. It doesn’t seem bolstering the keystone is an absolute must, though, as Bloom went on to express faith in Christian Arroyo’s ability to handle the position. The 26-year-old was limited to just 181 plate appearances this past season because of injuries, but he hit at a slightly above-average level (.262/.324/.445) in that limited time. Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison and César Hernández are among a few of the lower-cost free agent options available.

Red Sox Have Made Multi-Year Offer To Eduardo Rodriguez

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In addition to their one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Eduardo Rodriguez, the Red Sox have also made a multi-year contract offer to the free-agent lefty, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said earlier this week that there was mutual interest in a longer-term deal between the two parties (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).

Proposed terms aren’t clear at this point, but the fact that the Sox are trying to retain Rodriguez on a multi-year pact is nevertheless of some note. We’ve seen players accept a qualifying offer and still work out a subsequent extension in the past — Jose Abreu and the White Sox, for instance — but interest in Rodriguez figures to be robust. The fact that the Sox are looking at multi-year arrangements is at least a sign of a healthy market. Rodriguez has already been loosely linked to the Angels, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets this morning that the Tigers have showed some “early interest” as well.

The 28-year-old Rodriguez was viewed by some as a surprise recipient of the qualifying offer on the heels of a 4.74 ERA this season. Beyond that mark, however, everything in the lefty’s profile looks quite appealing. Rodrgiuez posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (27.4%) and walk rate (7.0%) while effectively tying career-best marks in swinging-strike rate (11.7%), called-strike rate (16.4%) and opponents’ chase rate (33.7%).

Rodriguez was also among the very best in baseball in terms of limiting hard contact (90th percentile average exit velocity, 87th percentile hard-hit rate) and finished the season on a rather strong note. The lefty posted a 3.71 ERA and 2.89 FIP following the All-Star break, including a 2.11 ERA in his final four starts of the season. Rodriguez was pulled early in his Game 1 ALDS date with the Rays after allowing a pair of runs in 1 2/3 innings, but he came back strong in his next two starts, allowing just eight hits and punching out 13 with no walks over the course of 11 innings. In all, over Rodriguez’s past three healthy regular seasons, he carries a 4.11 ERA, 3.63 FIP and 3.95 SIERA in just shy of 500 innings.

“Healthy” seasons is a key distinction, of course. The 2020 season was completely lost for Rodriguez when he developed myocarditis in the wake of a positive Covid-19 diagnosis. Rodriguez detailed the ordeal to James Wagner of the New York Times back in May, explaining that he couldn’t even get through 10 pitches in a bullpen session at one point before debilitating exhaustion overtook him. He was eventually barred from virtually any physical activity for three months, with even minor tasks like walking his dog and going to the supermarket off the table.

Given that context, it’s somewhat remarkable that Rodriguez was able to make it back for a full slate of 32 games in 2021 (including a lone, one-inning relief stint late in his final appearance). He tallied 157 2/3 innings during the regular season and tacked on another 12 2/3 in the postseason for a total of 35 games pitched. The Sox were seemingly mindful of his per-start workload, as he averaged just north of five frames per outing — a far cry from the six innings he averaged in 2019. Still, the overall workload is quite encouraging, given where Rodriguez was a year ago at this time.

All of that will be weighed by teams as they determine how aggressively to pursue Rodriguez, as will the fact that he’s tied to draft compensation by virtue of that aforementioned qualifying offer. Rodriguez has until Nov. 17 to determine whether to accept or reject that one-year, $18.4MM offer.

NPB Notes: Cardinals, Martinez, Suarez, Red Sox, Suzuki

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The Cardinals are among the teams with interest in right-hander Nick Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). Martinez, who will reach free agency at the start of December, is coming off a dominant showing with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Over 140 2/3 innings, the 31-year-old worked to a 1.60 ERA, striking out a quarter of the batters he faced in the process. After a four-season run in Japan, that strong 2021 campaign could earn Martinez another MLB look this offseason. Heyman suggests upwards of a third of MLB teams could join St. Louis in having interest in giving Martinez another opportunity stateside, although it stands to reason the Hawks would like to re-sign their star hurler as well.

A couple more notes on players currently in Japan’s top league:

  • Robert Suárez is on the radar of multiple major league teams, according to a Japanese-language report from Yahoo! Japan (h/t to Sung Min Kim). The 30-year-old has posted incredible numbers serving as the Hanshin Tigers’ closer over the past two seasons. After working to a 2.24 ERA in 52 1/3 innings in 2020, Suárez dominated to the tune of a 1.16 mark across 62 1/3 frames this past season. His peripherals were equally impressive, as the righty struck out 25.3% of opposing hitters against a minuscule 3.5% walk percentage. Suárez has never pitched in the majors but reportedly also caught the attention of big league clubs last winter.
  • The Red Sox are among the teams to have scouted NPB star Seiya Suzuki, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. They’re certainly not alone in that regard, as the Hiroshima Carp outfielder has long been regarded as one of the top talents in Japan. The Carp will make Suzuki available to major league clubs this winter via the posting system, coming off a season in which the 27-year-old mashed at a .319/.436/.644 clip with 38 homers in 530 plate appearances. Between his youth, huge numbers in NPB, and scouting reports that suggest he could immediately step in as an above-average major league right fielder, Suzuki should be one of the winter’s most in-demand free agents. MLBTR projects he’ll land a five-year, $55MM contract — an investment that would cost an MLB team $65.125MM after accounting for the posting fee that would be owed to the Carp were Suzuki to land a $55MM guarantee.

Verlander Showcase Draws Scouts From 15-20 Teams

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Two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who has pitched just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season due to 2020 Tommy John surgery, held a free-agent showcase this week. Representatives from as many as 15 to 20 teams this week, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, adding that Verlander’s fastball was clocked from 94 to 97 mph. He’s presently about 13 and a half months out from the surgery and will be 17 months removed from the procedure by the time Spring Training is set to begin.

As one would expect, the list of known teams in attendance at the showcase includes a blend of big-market contenders and a few rebuilding clubs looking to turn the corner and get back into competitive ball. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that the Yankees, Rangers and Tigers were in attendance. Sherman notes that the Mets had two scouts present for Verlander’s workout. TSN’s Scott Mitchell adds the Blue Jays to the pile, and the Post’s Ken Davidoff lists the Giants as another suitor. Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that the Halos had someone present to watch Verlander as well (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum).

Of course, given the stage of the offseason we’re at, it’s safe to assume that virtually any team with a modicum of 2022 postseason hope and/or any actual money to spent this offseason was at least present to gauge Verlander’s readiness. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom asked rhetorically when confirming his club’s presence at the showcase (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe): “Age might affect the term you consider, but if the present ability is there, why wouldn’t you be interested?”

By all accounts, the showcase went quite well. Beyond the multiple reports pegging Verlander’s velocity in the mid- to upper-90s, Sherman indicates that Verlander was able to throw all of his pitches and looked sharp across the board. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that one scout offered a simple, two-word assessment of Verlander after watching his open audition: “He’s ready.”

It’s certainly worth noting that the showcase was held at the Cressey Performance Center — a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber held his own showcase there last year and ultimately signed with the Yankees, but the mere location of Verlander’s workout doesn’t make a deal with the Yankees a foregone conclusion.

The Astros made a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Verlander over the weekend, but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject that in search of a multi-year offer. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that Verlander would likely be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, heavily implying at least a two-year term. Furthermore, hosting a showcase for two-thirds of the league is an obvious indicator that Verlander is interested in seeing what the market has to bear.

Verlander, 39 in February, didn’t pitch in 2021 and threw just six innings in 2020. Of course, in his last healthy season, he won the 2019 American League Cy Young Award after posting a 2.58 ERA in an MLB-best 223 innings with a huge 35.4% strikeout rate against a 5.0% walk rate. Verlander has said on multiple occasions in the past that he hopes to pitch well into his 40s.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Free Agent Notes: Verlander, Schwarber, Heaney

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Justin Verlander will hold a showcase for scouts and evaluators tomorrow, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (Twitter links).  This is the first time Verlander will throw in front of evaluators from other teams since his Tommy John surgery in September 2020.  Multiple teams are expected to have personnel on hand, if just as a matter of simple due diligence rather than a clear interest in signing Verlander on the free agent market.  As WFAN’s Sweeny Murti observes, it probably safe to assume the Yankees will have personnel on hand — Verlander is throwing at a Cressey Sports Performance facility, and Eric Cressey is the Yankees’ director of player health and performance.

It stands to reason that Verlander will probably hold multiple showcases in order to prove that his arm has recovered from the TJ procedure, and that he’ll be ready to roll when Spring Training camps open.  The timing of a second showcase could be particularly important, however, since Verlander has until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the qualifying offer extended by the Astros today.  If Verlander throws well and gets some good buzz coming out of Monday’s session, it could make him lean against taking the one-year, $18.4MM offer to return to Houston, if he gets an indication that at least one other club is interested in making him a more lucrative multi-year deal on the open market.

More from the free agent market….

  • J.D. Martinez’s decision to pass on his opt-out clause will keep the veteran slugger in Boston for another season, though it doesn’t mean that free agent Kyle Schwarber is necessarily roadblocked from a return to the Red Sox.  Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier) that the Sox have already been in touch with Schwarber and will continue to monitor his market throughout the winter.  Martinez’s role as the regular DH and a fill-in outfielder might be the ideal spot for Schwarber, as while Schwarber did okay at first base for someone who had never played the position before, he probably isn’t a viable solution at first over the longer term (plus, the Sox have Bobby Dalbec and prospect Triston Casas ready for more first base time).  However, Schwarber hit so well during his two-plus months in Boston that it isn’t surprising that the club will look to get creative in trying to find a fit for him in the lineup.  For his part, Schwarber said after the ALCS that he would be interested in a return to the Sox.
  • Despite Andrew Heaney’s very rough 2021 season, several teams are eyeing the left-hander as a possible bounce-back candidate.  The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) lists the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Nationals as some of the teams interested in the free agent hurler.  Heaney still had above-average strikeout and walk rates last year, as most of his problems stemmed from an inability to avoid home runs — Heaney allowed a whopping 29 homers over his 129 2/3 innings with the Angels and Yankees.

Red Sox Exercise Club Option On Christian Vazquez

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The Red Sox have picked up their club option on catcher Christian Vazquez for the 2022 season.  Under the terms of Vazquez’s original three-year, $13.55MM extension with the Sox, he will receive $7MM next year, and 2022 is now his last year under team control.  The club option included a $250K buyout, making it a $6.75MM decision for the Red Sox.

There wasn’t much doubt that the veteran would be back for his eighth year in Boston, as the Red Sox highly value Vazquez’s veteran leadership, his ability to work with pitchers and his overall glovework.  Vazquez’s bat has been much more inconsistent, as while he has had some strong seasons (most notably his 2019-20 campaigns), he has also been a below-average hitter on multiple occasions.  After batting .278/.327/.472 with 30 homers over 710 plate appearances in 2019-20, for example, Vazquez’s offense fell off sharply this season, as he hit only .258/.308/.352 with six homers in 498 PA.

Given how the catcher has rebounded from subpar performances in the past, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Vazquez rebound in 2022.  Even if he hits only a little better next year, Boston probably wouldn’t mind as long as Vazquez continues his good work behind the plate.  Vazquez’s extension (signed in March 2018) has proven to be a very nice investment for the Red Sox, and at the cost of $7MM, Vazquez is still a very solid value for one season.  Kevin Plawecki hit decently well in backup duty last year, and he will also return to potentially add a little more pop at the catching position in 2022.

It wouldn’t even be a surprise to see the Red Sox discuss another extension with Vazquez come Spring Training, though the team does have some future options in the pipeline.  Connor Wong made his MLB debut this past season and Ronaldo Hernandez is expected to debut in 2022, so the Red Sox could wish to give either of those younger backstops a longer look next year.  Or, if the Sox did look to extend Vazquez, one of these catching prospects (or 2021 fifth-rounder Nathan Hickey) could be plausible trade chips.

Red Sox Extend Qualifying Offer To Eduardo Rodriguez

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The Red Sox have issued a qualifying offer to left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Rodriguez has 10 days to decide whether or not to accept the one-year, $18.4MM contract.  If he rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get draft pick compensation in return, and E-Rod’s new team will have to surrender at least one pick.

Rodriguez’s 4.74 ERA wouldn’t make him an obvious qualifying offer candidate at first glance, yet it isn’t surprising that Boston would issue the QO once you look at the underlying statistics.  Rodriguez posted above-average strikeout, walk, and hard-hit ball rates, and his .289 xwOBA fell far under his .330 wOBA.  The southpaw’s .363 BABIP was also pretty telling, as Rodriguez didn’t receive much luck on batted balls or help from Boston’s defense.  Other ERA estimators (3.32 FIP/3.43/xFIP/3.64 SIERA) painted a much more appealing picture of Rodriguez’s 2021 performance.

Most importantly, Rodriguez was healthy and capable of tossing 157 2/3 innings in 2021 — a welcome sight considering that he missed all of 2020 recovering from myocarditis, caused by a case of COVID-19.  Apart from a brief bout of elbow inflammation that caused him to miss the first week of the season, E-Rod looked much like his normal self in 2021.

With of all these factors in mind plus the fact that Rodriguez doesn’t turn 29 until April, there is little doubt he’ll receive plenty of attention in free agency this winter.  There may be a slim chance Rodriguez accepts the qualifying offer, but he should still be able to land a healthy multi-year deal, given all of the advanced metrics that teams will pay heed to moreso than the 4.74 ERA.

The QO probably shouldn’t have too much of an adverse impact on his market, and the Sox have now put themselves in line to capitalize via the compensation route if Rodriguez does sign with another team.  That said, the Red Sox have also expressed interest in re-signing the left-hander, and the two sides have discussed contract extensions as recently as this past Spring Training.

J.D. Martinez Does Not Opt Out Of Contract With Red Sox

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J.D. Martinez has declined to exercise the opt-out provision in his contract and will therefore remain with the Red Sox for 2022, as reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network. His original five-year deal with the club prior to the 2018 season contained three opt-outs: after the second, third and fourth years of the deal. Martinez has now declined to opt out for a third consecutive year and will play out the final season of the contract on a salary of $19.35MM.

This was a decision that really could have gone either way, as Martinez himself admitted in September that he was “right in the middle” about it. On the one hand, Martinez bounced back from an awful showing in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with a solid performance in 2021. His slash line this year was .286/.349/.518, good enough for a wRC+ 128 and 2.9 fWAR. There is also the fact that a universal DH is widely expected to be implemented for next year, which would open up the slugger’s market considerably, since he’s primarily a DH and only suited to occasional outfield duty. (He played 148 games this season but only took the field in 38 of them.)

But on the other hand, the Collective Bargaining Agreement is expiring December 1st, creating an offseason with a high degree of uncertainty and the potential for a labour stoppage or transaction freeze. Furthermore, if Martinez opted out of his $19.35MM guarantee, he would certainly be offered an $18.4MM qualifying offer by the Red Sox, meaning the 34-year-old would be wading into that uncertain market with draft pick forfeiture attached to him, thus dampening his earning potential.

Martinez will now stick around Boston for one more year as the Red Sox try to repeat their surprising 92-win campaign that carried them all the way to the ALCS. He figures to be the regular DH and occasionally manning the field to give a breather to regulars Enrique Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe and Alex Verdugo. If he has another strong year at the plate, he would certainly be a candidate to receive a qualifying offer a year from now, assuming that system survives the upcoming CBA negotiations in tact.

Red Sox Decline Options On Martin Perez, Garrett Richards

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The Red Sox have declined their $6MM club option on left-hander Martin Perez, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. He will instead receive a $500K buyout and head into free agency. Right-hander Garrett Richards will also have his $10MM option declined, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He gets a $1.5MM buyout on his way into the free agent pool.

The decision on Perez is largely unsurprising, given how things went for him in 2021. He posted mediocre results over the first few months of the season and was eventually bumped to a bullpen role for the playoff stretch. In 22 starts, the last of which was August 5th, he threw 100 innings with an ERA of 4.77, 19.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. After moving to the bullpen, he logged 14 innings in 14 games with similar results, as he had an ERA of 4.50, strikeout rate of 18.8% and 4.7% walk rate. Perez also pitched three postseason innings for the Red Sox, but they didn’t go well, as he allowed six hits, four walks and four earned runs, without tallying a strikeout.

Despite that meager showing, Perez could garner some interest for a job at the back of a rotation or a swing role. Although he has a lengthy track record, he’s still relatively young, turning 31 in April. The lack of strikeouts have always been a part of his numbers and that hasn’t stopped him from having productive seasons in the past. He could help a team soak up some innings without a huge financial commitment.

As for Richards, he also made 22 starts but eventually got bumped into a bullpen role, just like Perez. His last start was August 8th, just a few days after his teammate’s. In those starts, he logged 110 1/3 innings with an ERA of 5.22, strikeout rate of 17.2% and 9.5% walk rate. After moving into a relief role, things seemed to greatly improve for him, as explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in September. At that time, Richards had thrown 20 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with an ERA of 0.87, a 29.4 percent strikeout rate, a 9.4 percent walk rate and a 48.1 percent ground-ball rate. However, his final few appearances weren’t great and his ERA as a reliever shot up to 3.42. Richards made one postseason appearance but was removed from the ALDS roster with a hamstring strain that ultimately ended his season.

He will make for an interesting wildcard option on the free agent market this year. He’s now far removed from his best stretch as a starter, which came in 2013-2015, but he showed flashes of potentially being an effective reliever, albeit in a fairly small sample size. He’ll turn 34 in May and seems to be in line for a short-term deal, whether it’s as a starter or reliever.

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