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Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration With Teoscar Hernandez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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The Blue Jays have settled on deals with their two most notable arbitration-eligible players. Corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández will receive $10.65MM, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link); first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in line for $7.9MM, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Hernández’s deal comes in narrowly above the $10MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. It’s a notable jump from last season’s $4.325MM salary, reflecting the excellent season the right-handed hitter just posted. Hernández hit .296/.346/.524 with 32 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 595 plate appearances last year. He’ll be arbitration-eligible one final time next winter before hitting free agency over the 2023-24 offseason.

Guerrero’s salary is an exact match for Swartz’s projection. It’s the 23-year-old’s first year of arbitration, and he lands his first significant payday after finishing as the AL MVP runner-up. Guerrero hit an incredible .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances this past season, emerging as the kind of impact hitter the Toronto fanbase had been hoping for when Guerrero was the sport’s top prospect. He owns a career .289/.367/.517 line and remains under control through 2025 after qualifying for arbitration early via the Super Two process.

Toronto also agreed to a two-year deal to buy out Matt Chapman’s final couple seasons of arbitration this afternoon. That brings the Jays’ projected payroll to around $171MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Blue Jays, Matt Chapman Agree To Two-Year Deal

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The Blue Jays and newly acquired third baseman Matt Chapman avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $25MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The deal will buy out Chapman’s final two arbitration seasons but does not extend Toronto’s club control over the two-time Platinum Glover. Chapman, a client of the Boras Corporation, will receive a $1MM signing bonus and consecutive salaries of $12MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Chapman to earn $9.5MM this coming season, and he would’ve earned one more raise in 2023 before reaching free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. Taking into account that $9.5MM projection, Chapman’s $25MM guarantee effectively puts a $14.5MM price on that third-time arbitration salary, which seems well within the realm of plausible outcomes.

The new contract doesn’t change much in terms of Chapman’s outlook, though it gives him some financial security in the event of a major injury or further downturn at the plate. The Jays, meanwhile, get some payroll certainty not only for this season but also in 2023 — and they also avoid a need to dedicate any time or resources to arbitration talks with Chapman next winter.

Acquired last week in a trade that sent prospects Gunnar Hoglund, Kevin Smith, Zach Logue and Kirby Snead to Oakland, Chapman heads to Toronto in search of a return to his 2018-19 MVP-caliber form at the plate. A hip injury in 2020 cut the season short for Chapman and ultimately required surgery. He returned to play a mostly full slate of 151 games in 2021, but while Chapman belted 27 home runs and played his usual brand of premium defense at the hot corner, his overall production at the plate dropped as his strikeout rate rose. It’s certainly possible that the 2019 All-Star simply wasn’t at 100% last season, and he’ll now set out to prove that was the case without needing to spend much time dwelling on his contractual status.

Chapman’s new $12MM salary bumps the Blue Jays’ projected payroll up to about $170MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and it gives them about $190MM worth of luxury-tax obligations. That’ll establish a new franchise-record mark in terms of actual payroll, though the Jays are still about $40MM shy of the new $230MM luxury-tax threshold.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 3/21/22

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Tomorrow afternoon is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures. Some players will go to hearings that will linger into the regular season, but many others will be motivated to settle on a contract before that point. A few early agreements have trickled in throughout the day. All projected salaries are from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

  • The Royals announced this evening they’ve agreed to terms with infielder Adalberto Mondesi. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports (via Twitter) he’ll make $3MM, a hair under his $3.2MM projection. Mondesi was limited to 35 games and 136 plate appearances by various injuries this past season. He posted a .230/.271/.452 line with six homers and 15 stolen bases — an encapsulation of both Mondesi’s enviable combination of power and speed, as well as his concerning plate discipline. Kansas City can control him through 2023.
  • The Guardians and shortstop/outfielder Amed Rosario are settling at $4.95MM, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (via Twitter). That’s right in line with his $5MM projection. Acquired from the Mets last offseason, the former top prospect hit .282/.321/.409 with 11 homers and 13 steals over 588 plate appearances. Rosario comes with one additional season of club control, as Cleveland can keep him around through 2023.
  • The Reds and utilityman Nick Senzel have settled at $1.25MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). That’s narrowly above his $1.1MM projection. Senzel, a former #2 overall pick and top prospect, has had trouble staying healthy in recent years. He’s taken 616 cumulative plate appearances in his first three big league seasons, including just 124 trips to the plate last year. The 26-year-old is a career .246/.308/.396 hitter and remains controllable through 2025 after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player this year.
  • The Reds also agreed to terms with outfielder Tyler Naquin, Murray reports (Twitter link). It’s a $4.025MM deal, a bit north of his $3.6MM projection. The lefty-hitting Naquin picked up a career-high 454 plate appearances last season, hitting a solid .270/.333/.477 with 19 home runs. Defensive metrics weren’t fond of his work, but Naquin still looks likely to see plenty of action at all three outfield spots this season. He’ll reach free agency at the end of the year.
  • Murray reports the Blue Jays and right-hander Ross Stripling have settled at $3.79MM, a few hundred thousand dollars under his $4.4MM projection. A successful starter early in his career with the Dodgers, Stripling has stumbled over the past couple seasons. He posted a 4.80 ERA in 101 1/3 innings this past season and looks as if he’ll begin this year in a swing role after Toronto’s offseason efforts to bolster the rotation. Stripling will hit the open market after the season.

Phillies To Sign Kyle Schwarber

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March 20: The Phillies have announced the signing, placing Kent Emanuel on the 60-day IL as a corresponding move. Emanuel went on the IL in June of last year with left elbow while with the Astros and never returned. Claimed by the Phillies in November, it seems he’s not close to being recovered, as the Phils announced that he has a left elbow impingement.

March 16, 11:06am: It’s a four-year, $79MM contract, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

8:54am: Schwarber and the Phillies have agreed to a four-year deal with an annual value just shy of $20MM, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic.

8:31am: The Phillies have reached an agreement with Schwarber, pending a physical, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

8:21am: The Phillies are “making progress” on a deal with free-agent slugger Kyle Schwarber, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Schwarber had recently been linked to the Blue Jays, but Shi Davidi and Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reported a few minutes ago that the team had become “pessimistic” about its chances of signing Schwarber, believing he was likely to sign elsewhere.

Kyle Schwarber | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Schwarber, 29, has been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market in the days since MLB’s lockout was lifted — thanks in no small part to the implementation of the universal designated hitter. The longtime Cubs left fielder was non-tendered by Chicago after the 2020 season but parlayed a one-year deal with the Nationals (and a subsequent trade to the Red Sox) into a surefire multi-year deal in his second foray into free agency.

While Schwarber got out to a lukewarm start with the Nats in 2021, he erupted with one of the most prodigious hot streaks in big league history in mid-June. From June 12-29, a span of just 18 games, Schwarber launched a staggering 16 home runs through just 77 plate appearances. That astonishing run was cut short by a hamstring strain that sidelined him for more than a month, but the Red Sox had no qualms about trading for Schwarber even while he was on the injured list.

The Boston front office was surely glad it did so, as Schwarber returned with that same thunder the moment he was activated from the injured list. In 168 plate appearances with the Red Sox down the stretch, he turned in a huge .291/.435/.522 slash with seven homers and 10 doubles as the Red Sox surged to an AL East division title. Schwarber clocked three more home runs during the postseason, including a now-iconic grand slam that keyed a Game 3 ALCS romp over the Astros, but his bat fell quiet thereafter, as he finished out the series in an 0-for-15 funk while the ’Stros came back to topple the Sox.

Slow start to the year notwithstanding, Schwarber hit .266/.374/.554 with a whopping 32 home runs in just 471 plate appearances during the regular season. Add in his postseason efforts, and Schwarber carries a .260/.365/.542 with 35 home runs in 520 plate appearances since the Cubs non-tendered him.

Signing with the Phillies will reunite Schwarber with former Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long, who left the Nats’ staff at season’s end and signed on for a reunion with manager Joe Girardi, under whom he’d previously coached with the Yankees. Long’s presence certainly couldn’t have hurt the Phillies’ efforts to sign Schwarber, and it’s of some note that he’ll now continue working with the same hitting coach who helped coax that career-altering run from him during the ’21 season.

Schwarber’s role with the Phillies depends, to an extent, on the remainder of the team’s moves. While he’ll probably spend some time in left field and at designated hitter regardless, the division of his workload between those two spots hinges on whether the Phils make another clear upgrade in the outfield. At the moment, the Phillies don’t have a clear, everyday option in left field. Bryce Harper is, of course, locked into right field, but the rest of the outfield remains in a state of flux. The Phils brought Odubel Herrera back on a one-year, $1.75MM deal, and he’s joined by Adam Haseley, Mickey Moniak and Luke Williams as outfield options on the roster. Suffice it to say, at least one more newly acquired bat seems likely to join Schwarber in the Opening Day lineup by the time all is said and done.

The scope of any further additions seems likely to be driven by the luxury tax. Phillies owner John Middleton has staunchly resisted exceeding the tax line in the past two seasons, and today’s addition of Schwarber will push the Phils to roughly $216-217MM in luxury obligations, depending on the specifics (hat tip to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That’ll leave the Phils with somewhere in the vicinity of $13-14MM of breathing room to add at least one more outfielder and any other supplemental pieces the front office desires. Teams generally want to leave at least a few million dollars for in-season dealings, so it could be that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is dealing with a bit less than that projected $13-14MM.

Of course, additional trades or a simple change of heart with regard to Middleton’s luxury-tax aversion could change the calculus. Dombrowski made clear early in the offseason that shortstop Didi Gregorius would have to earn a starting job after a dismal showing in 2021, and he’s been listed as a speculative candidate to be moved in a change-of-scenery swap. The Phils could also try to dump the contract of outrighted utilityman Scott Kingery on another club as well, which would free up another $4MM in luxury space.

Barring any such trades or philosophical changes in ownership thinking, Dombrowski will be working with some notable financial limitations from here on out. That might mean a shift to the trade market or pursuing some smaller-scale free agents in hopes of securing a bargain. Time will tell just how the front office will proceed, but the addition of Schwarber to a lineup that ranked 15th in the Majors in home runs and 13th in runs scored will provide a notable jolt in production.

Blue Jays Continue To Pursue Left-Handed Hitting

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The Blue Jays have one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups, though their projected starting nine tilts heavily to the right side.  Cavan Biggio is the only left-handed hitter set to receive everyday action in Toronto’s lineup, and even Santiago Espinal is expected to spell Biggio when southpaws are on the mound.  With this in mind, the Jays continue to look into left-handed hitters, with Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writing that the club has shown interest in Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, Brad Miller, and former Jay Corey Dickerson.

While Davidi reports that the Jays “had offers in” on the latter three names, Dickerson joined the Cardinals on a one-year/$5MM deal, Pederson went with the Giants’ one-year/$6MM offer, and Miller received $10MM over a two-year deal with the Rangers.  These players all projected for platoon or part-time duty, whereas Conforto would seemingly both be in line for more of an everyday role, and at a significantly higher cost.

Such clubs as the Rockies, Marlins, Yankees, and Padres have also been linked to Conforto’s market this winter, though Colorado could be off the board after signing Kris Bryant, while the Marlins have addressed their outfield needs with Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia.  Signing Conforto would cost a draft pick since he turned down the Mets’ qualifying offer, and it does remain to be seen exactly what kind of deal Conforto will land as Opening Day nears.  His market could improve as other outfielders get signed, though in the wake of Conforto’s average 2021 season, teams may still balk at committing significant money.

A multi-year contract with opt-out clauses could be an option, similar to the deal just signed by another Scott Boras client — new Twins shortstop Carlos Correa.  Or, the Jays could offer Conforto a straight one-year contract worth $18.4MM (the cost of the qualifying offer), in a move similar to how Toronto landed Marcus Semien last winter.  Like Semien, Conforto could see the one-year deal as a bridge to a bigger contract the following offseason, assuming that Conforto returns to his past form.

Signing Conforto would cost the Blue Jays $500K of international spending money and their second-highest pick in the 2022 draft, which would be their second-round selection.  However, since the Blue Jays will be getting two extra compensatory picks just prior to the third round (since Semien and Robbie Ray rejected QOs and signed elsewhere this winter), the Jays could feel they have the draft depth to rationalize signing Conforto.

The amount of interest Toronto has in Conforto isn’t known, as Davidi acknowledges that the Jays could just be making a routine check-in on a notable unsigned free agent.  Since the Jays don’t have a set DH, Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Conforto could all see regular work in the DH spot and the starting outfield spots, with Randal Grichuk getting fill-in duty as the situation warrants.

Of course, switch-hitting Guardians star Jose Ramirez continues to be a Blue Jays target, and would represent another left-handed option to balance out the lineup in a major fashion.  It remains to be seen if the Jays and Guardians can finally agree on a trade package or if Cleveland will even end up moving Ramirez whatsoever, though Davidi reports that a Guardians scout was recently seen taking video of Alejandro Kirk.  Since the Guards are thin at catcher now and don’t have a true catcher of the future lined up (depending on Bo Naylor’s future position), Kirk would be a logical candidate to be included as part of a potential Ramirez trade package.

Matt Chapman Rejected 10-Year, $150MM Offer After 2019 Season

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Before hip surgery knocked Matt Chapman out of the 2020 playoffs, the A’s had offered their superstar third baseman a 10-year extension worth $150MM, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. After the hip injury, rejecting that offer was a decision that caused some second-guessing on Chapman’s part. Some two years after Oakland attempted to extend Chapman, the offer exists only as a comparative tool.

Chapman will play out his remaining arbitration seasons in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform. The Jays maintain team control over Chapman for the 2022 and 2023 seasons, after which the Scott Boras client can head to free agency to test open waters. Rosenthal crunched the numbers and found that Chapman will need to essentially sign a six-year, $122MM deal when he reaches free agency to make his decision to reject the extension look like a wise one. That’s doable if he’s able to stay healthy.

On the field, Chapman was healthy again in 2021, and again a Gold Glove Award winner at the hot corner. He ranked tied for fourth among third baseman in defensive runs saved by The Fielding Bible awards in 2021.

His offense, however, didn’t quite return to its previous heights. With a .210/.314/.403 line across 622 plate appearances, Chapman’s 101 wRC+ was the lowest mark of his career, though certainly a respectable enough number when paired with first-rate glovework. Being another season away from hip surgery could help Chapman rebound further in 2022, and playing his home games away from the Coliseum won’t hurt either.

At least for the next two seasons, Toronto should have a productive regular on a short-term, relatively valuable deal. MLBTR’s projected arbitration figure for 2021 is $9.5MM, an exceedingly affordable price of admission to watch Chapman man the hot corner day-in-and-day-out.

He’ll essentially take over for Marcus Semien as the veteran superstar tasked with playing alongside young star Bo Bichette. Chapman’s addition has the additional effect of sliding Cavan Biggio back to the keystone. As good as Chapman has been in the past, he has big shoes to fill after Semien posted near-MVP numbers during his one year in Toronto.

And while Chapman’s personal narrative may, in part, be tied to the measure of team success this version of the Blue Jays is able to achieve, in reality, there are too many individual threads tied to this Toronto team to attribute much of their future success or failure to Chapman alone.

Chapman’s personal narrative – and his future contract negotiations – will tie much more directly to three factors: personal health, on-field performance, and, likely, the shape of the free agent landscape two offseasons from now. As of right now, it would appear likely that the Chapman-Toronto alliance will last for just two seasons before he hits free agency.

A long-term deal can’t be ruled out, of course, but odds are against it. For one, Boras prefers taking his clients to free agency. Second, the Blue Jays have other players (namely, Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) who are going to require long-term commitments that will add to a payroll already weighted down with a chunky deals for Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, and George Springer. Thirdly, top prospect Orelvis Martinez is quickly rising through the ranks, and he may be ready to take over sooner rather than later.

All that being said, if the feel-good Blue Jays continue to feel good, Chapman may like playing in Toronto. It’s worth wondering, as well, if Chapman’s injury and previous extension rejection will change his feelings about another such offer, should Toronto choose to make one. At worst, the Blue Jays and Chapman have two seasons to enjoy one another’s company. Then we can find out whether Chapman made the right financial decision in rejecting Oakland’s extension offer.

Blue Jays Have Discussed Jose Ramirez Trade With Guardians

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The Blue Jays have had discussions with the Guardians about trades involving Jose Ramirez, with the idea of using him as a second baseman, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. In a subsequent tweet, Rosenthal adds that it’s unclear if Toronto’s acquisition of Matt Chapman will alter these discussions, hypothesizing that the Jays don’t want to continue depleting their prospect stock with yet another huge deal.

The fact that the Jays are interested in Ramirez is not surprising for multiple reasons. The team’s president and general manager, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, were both with Cleveland from the time of Ramirez’s signing through his first few MLB seasons. There’s also the fact that Ramirez is incredibly talented and affordable. Over the past six seasons, he’s hit 155 home runs, stolen 134 bases and hit .286/.364/.531, for a wRC+ of 135 and 32.7 fWAR. He’ll make $11MM this season and has a $13MM club option for next season. He’s also a switch-hitter, which would benefit a Blue Jays lineup that skews heavily right-handed. Furthermore, it has been previously reported that the Jays unsuccessfully tried to acquire Ramirez at last year’s trade deadline.

While Ramirez would certainly be an offensive upgrade over the Cavan Biggio–Santiago Espinal pairing the Jays currently have projected at second base, the plan would come with some complications. For one, Ramirez’s experience at second base is limited. He played there sporadically in the first few years of his career until 2017, when he got into 71 games at the keystone. That dropped to 16 games in 2018 and he hasn’t played there since.

There’s also the fact that the Guardians don’t really have the financial motivation to move Ramirez. They’re currently projected for an Opening Day payroll of just $52MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Even for a typically low-spending team like them, that’s incredibly low, giving them little incentive to subtract the $11MM owed to Ramirez.

Also, there’s the question of whether Cleveland would want to do this from a public relations standpoint. The fanbase already had to endure a trade of a face-of-the-franchise player one year ago when Francisco Lindor was dealt to the Mets. That was followed up by the team abandoning the nickname they had used for over a century, a move that was clearly quite unpopular with certain sections of the club’s diehards. To turn around and trade the team’s best player yet again would only do further damage to the relationship between the franchise and their customers.

Finally, there’s also the fact that Cleveland can still compete in the AL Central. Despite a litany of injuries to their starting rotation last season, the team still finished 80-82. Even with marginally better luck on the health front, they should be able to push themselves back over .500 and into a playoff race, especially with an extra playoff spot being available this year. Given their incredibly low payroll commitments, they should be able to add to their roster rather than subtract, particularly in the outfield.

Athletics Trade Matt Chapman To Blue Jays

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Oakland’s rapid sell-off and the Blue Jays’ aggressive offseason both continued Wednesday, as the A’s announced that third baseman Matt Chapman has been traded to Toronto in exchange for right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-hander Zach Logue and left-hander Kirby Snead.

Matt Chapman | Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

The acquisition of Chapman will give the Blue Jays not only one of the best defensive third basemen in the game but one of the top defensive players in baseball at any position. Since Chapman’s 2017 Major League debut, his 88 Defensive Runs Saved and his 47.3 Ultimate Zone rating both trail only Mookie Betts and Andrelton Simmons among all big leaguers. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric largely agrees, ranking him tenth among all big league players, regardless of position, since 2017. Indeed, Chapman has twice been recognized as the league’s best all-around defender by being named the league’s Platinum Glove winner.

Of course, Chapman is far from a glove-only player. From 2018-19, he was a legitimate MVP candidate on the strength of his combined offensive and defensive prowess. The former No. 25 overall draft pick posted a .263/.348/.507 slash with 60 home runs while playing his home games at the cavernous Oakland Coliseum during those two seasons, finishing Top 7 in American League MVP voting on both occasions.

Chapman’s offensive production has fallen sharply over the past two seasons, due in no small part to a major hip injury in 2020 that he tried to play through before succumbing to surgery. That procedure both repaired a labrum tear and “cleaned up” the head of his right femur bone. Even as his production has dipped, Chapman has still hit for power (37 home runs, .216 ISO) and drawn plenty of walks (11.4%), but his strikeout rate has spiked from 22.8% in 2018-19 all the way to 33.1% in 2020-21. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted a combined .215/.206/.431 batting line.

The Jays are surely betting that Chapman will bounce back to an extent at the plate now that he’ll be 18 months removed from that September 2020 surgery. However, even if he doesn’t return to his MVP-caliber levels from 2018-19, the new three-true-outcomes version of Chapman was still worth 3.5 wins above replacement per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs last season. He’s a pronounced upgrade for a Jays team hoping to make a deep postseason run on the strength of a dominant offense and a rotation that has improved by leaps and bounds in recent seasons.

Chapman’s salary has not yet been settled, as he’s arbitration-eligible and did not settle on a price point with the A’s prior to the lockout. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM this coming season and will be owed one more raise for the 2023 campaign before reaching free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. While Jays fans may be looking to Matt Olson’s swift extension following a trade from Oakland to his hometown Braves, it should be pointed out that as a client of the Boras Corporation, Chapman seems less likely to follow that same trajectory. Still, he’ll be locked in as the Toronto third baseman for at least the next two seasons.

Adding Chapman firmly pushes Cavan Biggio to second base, where he’s better suited to play from a defensive standpoint. Chapman’s range will also play nicely alongside Bo Bichette, who has drawn mixed reviews for his glovework at shortstop. Statcast notes that Bichette is much stronger on balls hit to his left side than those hit to his right, so getting some extra range out of their third baseman will be particularly helpful.

It’s worth pointing out that Chapman isn’t an ideal fit for a Toronto lineup that skews almost entirely right-handed. He’d give them eight pure right-handed hitters in the starting lineup, with Biggio the lone lefty. That right-handed lean was part of the reason that a potential Freddie Freeman fit has seemed so tantalizing for the Jays. This acquisition technically doesn’t rule out a Freeman signing, but it does quash any speculation of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moving back to third base. That’s in the team’s best interest anyhow, as Guerrero was never a strong defensive option at the hot corner. A theoretical Freeman addition would push Guerrero into a primary designated hitter role earlier in his career than the Jays might’ve liked, but the sheer offensive firepower of that lineup would still make it worth considering. Toronto had been linked to Kyle Schwarber, but he’s now Philadelphia-bound after agreeing to a four-year deal with the Phillies.

Turning the Oakland’s return, they’ll acquire one high-end but far-off pitching prospect, Hoglund, and a trio of largely MLB-ready pieces in Smith, Logue and Snead. Hoglund was the No. 19 overall draft pick in 2021 and might well have gone in the Top 10 selections had he not required Tommy John surgery during last year’s NCAA season. The former Ole Miss ace was largely regarded as one of the top college arms in the draft after pitching to a 2.41 ERA with a sky-high 39% strikeout rate against a strong 6.1% walk rate.

Baseball America ranked him fifth among Toronto farmhands, while FanGraphs pegged him No. 3 in the Toronto system. Much of Hoglund’s future depends on how he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he’d been described as an advanced college arm with mid-rotation upside and a potential quick path to the big leagues.

Smith, 25, ought to step right into the Athletics’ Opening Day lineup. He went just 3-for-32 in a brief big league cup of coffee late in the 2021 season, but that’s overshadowed by a big .285/.370/.561 batting line in Triple-A last year. Smith, ranked seventh among Jays prospects at BA and 16th at FanGraphs, smacked 21 home runs, 27 doubles and four triples while also going 18-for-21 in stolen base attempts in that outstanding Triple-A campaign. BA ranked him as the game’s No. 91 prospect in the 2018-19 offseason, and while a poor first showing in Triple-A dropped his stock, last year’s excellent rebound restored a good bit of faith in his abilities.

Kevin Smith | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Jays played Smith primarily at shortstop during his time in Triple-A, but he also has 651 professional innings at third base and 161 innings of work at second base. Scouting reports peg him as a capable but not-elite defender at short. Given the presence of all-world defensive prospect Nick Allen in the upper tiers of the Oakland system, it seems quite possible that Smith’s eventual home with the A’s will be either third base or second base.

As for the two pitchers, Logue has a chance to be in the Oakland rotation before long. The 25-year-old (26 in April) was Toronto’s ninth-round pick in 2017 and has greatly elevated his status, thanks in part to a nice showing between Double-A and Triple-A this past season. In 125 innings between the two levels, Logue notched a 3.67 ERA with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate, an even better 5.3% walk rate and a 38% ground-ball rate. That he’s a fly-ball pitcher moving to Oakland as opposed to Toronto’s more hitter-friendly Rogers Centre can only help his chances of becoming a quality big league contributor.

Logue ranked 24th among Jays prospects at BA, where he was labeled one of the system’s “most improved” players in 2021 and touted as a potential back-end starter. FanGraphs tabbed him 10th in the Toronto system, praising his plus changeup, plus command and above-average cutter. Scouting reports generally don’t peg Logue as more than a fourth starter, but if he’s able to realize that potential, there’s quite a bit of value in six-plus seasons of a No. 4 starter.

Snead, 27, gives the A’s an MLB-ready bullpen piece who made his big league debut late in the ’21 season. Snead allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and a pair of walks with seven strikeouts through his first 7 2/3 big league innings last year. That marked the continuation of an excellent season in Triple-A, where he’d notched a 1.58 ERA with a huge 36.1% strikeout rate, a 10.1% walk rate and a massive 63.3% ground-ball rate.

Unlike many lefties, Snead has no issues containing right-handed opponents in 2021. While he was still better against left-handers, who posted an awful .141/.222/.203 against him (Majors and Triple-A combined), right-handers were similarly futile. Even when batters held the platoon advantage, they mustered only a .186/.278/.245 output against Snead. He’s been a pure reliever throughout his professional career, but that dominance against both righties and lefties mitigates any specialist concerns and gives him the chance to be a multi-inning option. Snead has pitched 236 1/3 innings through 186 minor league appearances, so he’s no stranger to working more than an inning at a time.

The trade of an All-Star third baseman to the Blue Jays for a four-player package consisting of three largely MLB-ready pieces and one further-off but high-upside prospect will do little to quell comparisons to the 2014 Josh Donaldson blockbuster. That trade, which brought Franklin Barreto, Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin to Oakland, didn’t pan out as the front office hoped, but today’s swap is a separate deal, eerie similarities notwithstanding. The A’s have added a notable influx of talent to their system, and the Chapman return in particular features the largest crop of MLB-ready talent they’ve picked up thus far in their offseason dealings.

The Chapman trade marks the latest step in the dismantling of a roster that was largely foreseeable but is nevertheless disheartening for the fanbase. Chapman follows fan favorites Olson and Chris Bassitt out the door, and it’s unlikely Oakland will stop its roster purge with those three. Lefty Sean Manaea, a free agent at season’s end, seems all but certain to be traded. Right-hander Frankie Montas, center fielder Ramon Laureano and reliever Lou Trivino all have multiple seasons of club control remaining but still could change hands. Montas, in particular, has been a target for pitching-hungry clubs. Looking ahead, it’s not really a question of whether any of those players will be traded — but rather one of who’ll be the next to go.

Former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga first reported on Instagram that a trade agreement was in place. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported Oakland’s return for Chapman (Twitter link).

Blue Jays “Making Push” For Kyle Schwarber

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The Blue Jays are “making a big push” for Kyle Schwarber, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Marly Rivera of ESPN reported (on Twitter) this evening the Jays had interest in the lefty-hitting outfielder. Heyman adds that multiple teams remain in the mix but puts Toronto among the frontrunners for his services.

Toronto has been tied to a few marquee bats, as reports suggest they’re at least on the periphery of the Freddie Freeman market. Presumably, a Schwarber deal would take the Jays out of the running for the 2020 NL MVP, but he’d be a notable boon to their offense himself.

Schwarber, who turned 29 last week, is coming off a career-best season. Non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, he signed a $10MM deal with the Nationals. The Indiana University product hit .253/.340/.570 with 25 home runs across 303 plate appearances with Washington. That included an unreal 16-homer month of June that had made Schwarber the league’s hottest hitter before he suffered a severe hamstring strain in early July.

He spent the next six weeks on the injured list, during which time the Nationals fell out of contention. The Red Sox acquired Schwarber in a deadline deal despite his injury, with plans to have him rotate between first base and left field for the stretch run. He returned in mid-July and picked up right where he’d left off pre-injury, popping seven homers with a .291/.435/.522 line in 41 games with Boston. (The midseason trade also made him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer).

Between the two clubs, Schwarber posted a .266/.374/.554 line with 32 homers over 471 plate appearances. That production was 45 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. As he has throughout his career, Schwarber was a bit prone to strikeouts (27%), but he also drew walks at an elite 13.6% clip and posted top-of-the-scale power production. He ranked in the 90th percentile or better in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact percentage. It was the kind of middle-of-the-order output many expected from Schwarber when he was drafted fourth overall and ranked as one of the sport’s top offensive prospects.

The corner outfield market is robust, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto all joining Schwarber in the ranks of the unsigned. Freeman and Anthony Rizzo are the top options at first base, leaving plenty of possibilities for clubs in search of an upgrade to the middle of the lineup.

In addition to their search for a big-ticket bat, the Jays have been looking for infield and bullpen help. Héctor Gómez of Z 101 reported over the weekend (on Twitter) that Toronto was looking into a reunion with versatile infielder Jonathan Villar. The switch-hitter played briefly with the Jays late in 2020 and struggled, but he bounced back with a decent .249/.322/.416 showing over 505 plate appearances for the Mets last season. The Jays could use some help at either of second or third base (with Cavan Biggio taking the other position), and Villar may be the top option remaining in free agency.

On the relief front, the Jays have checked in with closer Kenley Jansen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The market for the longtime Dodger has been fairly quiet to this point, but he’s arguably the best remaining late-game option. The typically excellent Jansen tossed 69 innings with a 2.22 ERA last season, punching out an elite 30.9% of opponents.

Freddie Freeman Rumors: Monday

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Freddie Freeman’s 12-year run with Atlanta came to a close Monday afternoon, as the Braves acquired slugging first baseman Matt Olson from the Athletics.  With the Yankees pessimistic on their chances of signing Freeman, here’s the latest…

  • The Blue Jays have conveyed serious interest in Freeman, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  On Friday Morosi suggested Freeman’s signing was imminent and said the Dodgers were making a strong push.
  • The Rays and Jays “have remained aggressive” on Freeman, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter thread) notes that rival clubs perceive the Jays as a threat to utilize some of their available payroll space to make a splash on the offense. He also suggests the Yankees could make sense as a Freeman suitor, but notes that it’s unclear if ownership wants to take on a long-term deal when they’re hoping to work out a long-term extension with Aaron Judge at some point down the line.
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