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Caleb Cotham “Clear Frontrunner” To Be Next Phillies Pitching Coach

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NOVEMBER 15: The Phillies are indeed hoping to finalize a deal with Cotham in the next week, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

NOVEMBER 14: Reds’ assistant pitching coach and director of pitching Caleb Cotham is the leading candidate to take over as the next pitching coach of the Philadelphia Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury names Cotham as the “clear frontrunner.”

Cotham, 33, pitched for two seasons at the major-league level, making his debut for manager Joe Girardi and the New York Yankees in 2015. Girardi likely has significant sway in this hiring decision as the manager of the Phillies, especially since they continue to search for a new head of baseball ops. The Phillies, however, aren’t the only team that Cotham has spoken with this offseason.

Speculatively speaking, Cotham’s experience with Driveline Baseball could be a selling point for data-interested hurlers, as well as the organization on the whole. One such hurler happens to be the top starting pitcher on the free agent market. It’s easy to connect the dots between a potential Cotham hire and NL Cy Young Trevor Bauer – just as we do between Cotham and Girardi – but that’s two steps down the line. If a connection is all it takes to sign Bauer, after all, the Reds would still be in pole position. The Phillies have, however, shown a willingness to spend for starting pitching on the open market in recent years with the additions of Jake Arrieta and Zack Wheeler. Still, if Cotham does indeed turn out to be their hire, it will be on his own merit.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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After the Reds earned their first playoff berth since 2013, their offseason began with the surprise resignation of president of baseball operations Dick Williams. General manager Nick Krall, who previously worked under Williams, is now at the helm. Krall already has a lot on his plate with the possible departure of right-handed ace Trevor Bauer, who’s now the preeminent free agent on the market after a Cy Young-winning season.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

It didn’t look as if the Reds-Bauer union was going to work out after they acquired him from the Indians leading up to the 2019 trade deadline. Bauer had an immense amount of difficulty keeping runs off the board in the wake of the deal, evidenced by the bloated 6.39 ERA he put up in his 56 1/3-inning Reds debut.

While Bauer didn’t make an ideal first impression on the Reds, there was a 180-degree turnaround in 2020, in which the 29-year-old recorded a 1.73 ERA/2.88 FIP with 12.33 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 73 frames. His pitching was instrumental in getting the Reds back to the playoffs, but the problem is that excellence could lead him out of Cincinnati. Williams said before he stepped down that the team would do all it could to keep Bauer, but he also stated that he’s unsure how the Reds’ payroll will shape up in 2021 in as a result of the pandemic. Krall said Friday the team and Bauer haven’t had “substantial” contract talks.

If it’s any consolation for the Reds, they’ll at least get some compensation if Bauer does leave. They made the no-brainer decision to issue him an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he summarily rejected.

The good news for the Reds is that a rotation devoid of Bauer and fellow free agent Anthony DeSclafani would not be a lost cause. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle should once again comprise 60 percent of the group. Wade Miley had a rough, injury-shortened season, but he’s under contract for another year and should get a chance to rebound. It’s unclear how the Reds will fill the other spot in their rotation, though reliever Michael Lorenzen seems poised to get the opportunity to win the job. Tejay Antone could join Lorenzen in competing. Otherwise, free agency is pretty stacked with established arms (Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Adam Wainwright are some of them). The trade market should be led by the Rangers’ Lance Lynn and the Pirates’ Joe Musgrove.

Bauer’s situation aside, the main question the Reds have to answer this offseason may be at shortstop. Indeed, Krall admitted Friday that the position “would be something you’d like to address.”

Freddy Galvis was a useful piece for the club from 2019-20, but he’s now a free agent. That leaves Jose Garcia, 22, as the Reds’ No. 1 at the position. Garcia is a promising prospect, but he never played above High-A before this year. It showed during a major league debut in which Garcia hit a woeful .194/.206/.194 line with no home runs and a wRC+ of 3 across 68 plate appearances. He seems to need more seasoning below the majors before the Reds hand him the reins. That could point the team to free agency, where ex-Red Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons lead the way. The KBO’s Ha-Seong Kim should soon join them. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor and the Rockies’ Trevor Story could be available via trade, but it’ll be a challenge for the Reds to win a sweepstakes for either of those stars.

Besides shortstop, the Reds’ offense probably won’t face many changes over the winter. As seen above, their position player corps features a handful of guaranteed contracts that they won’t be willing or able to jettison. First baseman Joey Votto, second baseman Mike Moustakas, third baseman Eugenio Suarez and right fielder Nick Castellanos are etched in stone. The Reds also seem likely to continue with Tucker Barnhart at catcher, though they could non-tender backup Curt Casali and give his role to Tyler Stephenson. Meanwhile, they’ll have to find playing time in the outfield for the mix of Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel (unless they use him as a trade chip), Aristides Aquino and Brian Goodwin. Granted, the Reds are probably going to non-tender Goodwin.

The Reds’ bullpen should also return largely the same bunch in 2021. As mentioned before, there’s a question whether Lorenzen or Antone will earn a rotation spot instead of a bullpen job. That aside, the club’s not in danger of losing anyone of great importance. Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims and Archie Bradley will all be back. Lorenzen, Antone or both will rejoin that group. That’s a nice core, but the Reds could still add at least one veteran free agent to supplement it.  Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Brad Hand, Blake Treinen and Trevor Rosenthal are the leading relievers looking for work. If they’re out of the Reds’ price range, the likes of Mark Melancon, Jake McGee, Brandon Kintzler and Shane Greene are a few of many who could make for sensible targets.

2020 didn’t include a postseason victory for the Reds, whom the Braves swept in the wild-card round, and it’s now probable that Cincy will see the head of its starting staff depart. Even without Bauer, though, this is still a respectable-looking team and one that could make a return to the playoffs next year if Krall finds a way to address the few glaring holes on the roster.

Reds GM Nick Krall Discusses Offseason Plans

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Reds general manager Nick Krall spoke with reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic and Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) this afternoon about the club’s winter plans. Unsurprisingly, the Cincinnati front office will be on the lookout for shortstop help in the coming months.

“We lost Freddy Galvis. Shortstop would be something you’d like to address,” Krall replied when asked about the roster’s biggest need. Galvis, who led the Reds with 31 starts at the position last season, is now a free agent. He’d figure to come cheap if Cincinnati wanted to bring him back, but it’s arguable the now-contending Reds should pursue an upgrade at the position regardless.

Krall noted the organization remains high on touted prospect José García, but the 22-year-old slumped to a brutal .194/.206/.194 line over his first 68 MLB plate appearances. Krall didn’t rule out the possibility of García competing for a big league job next spring, but further minor-league seasoning seems likely considering García looked overmatched after making the jump from High-A to the majors this past season.

The top of the free agent shortstop market includes Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons, as well as KBO star Ha-Seong Kim. Cincinnati also makes sense as a potential Francisco Lindor suitor. It’d be a bit surprising to see the Indians trade the face of their franchise to an in-state rival, but the teams did line up on the three-team Trevor Bauer deal last summer.

Speaking of Bauer, he’s now the only ace-caliber pitcher available in free agency. Krall said the Reds have had preliminary, “not substantial” contact with Bauer’s camp to this point. Surely, the Reds would love to keep the reigning NL Cy Young winner in the fold, but they’ll face plenty of competition for his services. Even if Bauer departs, a 2021 rotation led by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle would be an enviable group.

One other candidate for the rotation is Michael Lorenzen. The 28-year-old, primarily a reliever in recent seasons, hopes to earn a rotation spot in spring training. That’s a possibility, Krall confirmed, but the rest of the Reds’ offseason moves will shape Lorenzen’s ultimate role. Cincinnati has a few high-end bullpen pieces beyond Lorenzen, but the GM noted the organization is looking to lengthen the relief corps, preferably by adding hurlers with minor-league option years remaining. Optionable players are more likely to be found in trade, on waivers, or via minor-league free agency than by shopping at the top of the free agent market. To that end, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Reds make a low-cost bullpen addition or two this winter.

NL East Notes: Ozuna, Braves, Mets, La Russa, Nationals, Phillies

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Marcell Ozuna is unsurprisingly drawing a lot of early attention in free agency, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that the Braves and at least nine other teams have already shown interest in the slugger.  The list of suitors includes teams from both the National and American League, despite uncertainty about whether or not the DH will be available to NL teams next season.  Of course, Ozuna isn’t yet a full-time designated hitter at this point in his career, as he played 21 of his 60 games as a corner outfielder in 2020, but teams would undoubtedly prefer the security blanket of a DH spot for Ozuna over the course of a multi-year deal.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has mostly preferred to invest in pricey one-year contracts for veteran players (including Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Ozuna himself) in free agency, though Atlanta signed Will Smith to a three-year, $39MM deal last offseason.  Ozuna’s next deal might be worth almost twice as much as it took to land Smith, but considering how Atlanta expects to be contending for the World Series, making the big investment to re-sign Ozuna might be deemed as worthwhile from the Braves’ perspective.

Some more from around the NL East…

  • The White Sox hiring Tony La Russa as their next manager was a controversial hire for many reasons, including the fact that La Russa hasn’t managed a big league game since 2011.  However, La Russa did receive consideration for a managerial opening just last winter, as Jon Heyman (in a radio interview on WFAN’s Moose and Maggie show) said the Mets interviewed La Russa about potentially replacing Mickey Callaway.  “Nothing came of” the talks and La Russa wasn’t extended an offer, as the Mets went to hire Carlos Beltran.
  • The Nationals seem likely to take a “middle of the pack” approach to spending this winter, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli opines, operating as neither “big spenders or big savers” in the wake of revenue losses from the 2020 season.  Washington has over $161MM in projected payroll for the 2021 campaign, and though a lot of that is scheduled to come off the books next winter (most notably Max Scherzer’s salary), one would imagine the Nats might want to earmark some of those savings for possible extensions for Trea Turner and Juan Soto.  Ghiroli feels the Nationals will be active in free agency to some degree but doesn’t expect any splashy signings.
  • The Phillies are in their second round of interviews as they search for a new pitching coach, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes.  There isn’t much known about the Phils’ search thus far, though Salisbury lists three of the candidates who were interviewed in the first round — two internal names in assistant pitching coach Dave Lundquist and minor league pitching coordinator Rafael Chaves, plus one name from outside the organization in Reds assistant pitching coach and director of pitching Caleb Cotham.  It isn’t known if any of Lundquist, Chaves, or Cotham advanced to the second-interview stage.  [UPDATE: Cotham has interviewed with two different teams, Reds GM Nick Krall told C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.)

Trevor Bauer Wins NL Cy Young Award

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Trevor Bauer of the Cincinnati Reds was awarded the Cy Young in the National League by the BBWAA tonight. Amazingly, Bauer becomes the first Cy Young award winner in Reds’ history.

Bauer made the most of his free agent season with a league-leading 1.73 ERA over 73 innings, including 2 complete game shutouts. Bauer showed up in the postseason for the Reds as well, going 7 2/3 innings allowing just 2 hits while striking out 12 and walking none. During the regular season, opponents hit just .159 against him, the best mark in the league.

That represents quite the platform for a freshly minted free agent. Teams will also have to consider Bauer’s frustrating 2019 campaign, though he was dealing with injuries for much of the year and his comeback left little to be desired. Bauer is one of the most entertaining, enigmatic, and opinionated personalities in the game, and now he’s heading into the open market as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.

As close as the race seemed leading up to the event, Bauer ran away with it, taking 27 first-place votes and 201 total points. Yu Darvish finished 2nd with 3 first-place votes and 123 total point, and Jacob deGrom finished 3rd with 89 points. 12 different pitchers received at least one vote for the award.

Lorenzen Expects To Pitch Out Of Reds’ Rotation In 2021

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Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson suggested in late September that right-hander Michael Lorenzen had “put himself in the conversation” for a rotation job in 2021. Lorenzen echoed that idea and perhaps took things a step further today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, telling hosts Jim Duquette and Jon Morosi that plans to report to Spring Training as a starting pitcher (Twitter link, with audio).

“My expectation is to show up as a starter and to finish the season as a starter,” said Lorenzen. “That’s where my mind is at, and I’m excited for it.”

The 28-year-old Lorenzen (29 in January) isn’t exactly a stranger to the starting rotation, having started 21 games as a rookie back in 2015. He made a pair of September starts for the Reds in 2020 as well, although he spent the entirety of the 2016-19 seasons working in relief as one of the team’s top setup men.

Lorenzen is a hyperathletic player who has been utilized in two-way fashion by the Reds. He’s an oft-used pinch-hitter and pinch-runner who carries a career .235/.284/.432 batting line and seven home runs through 146 plate appearances. Lorenzen is also 5-for-7 in career stolen base attempts and has graded out as an above-average defensive outfielder. The Reds think highly enough of his glove and bat that they started him as their center fielder six times in 2019,

Things haven’t panned out for Lorenzen in the rotation to this point in his career, though his only real chance came back in that 2015 rookie effort. His two starts in 2020 netted positive results: three runs on seven hits and two walks with 14 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings against the Pirates and White Sox.

That Lorenzen will be given this opportunity is also notable given the potential greater implications for the Reds. Cincinnati could see both Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani depart via free agency, and plugging Lorenzen into one of those spots would make for an affordable alternative solution. He’s arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter and projected to earn a modest bump to a $4MM salary. A successful move to the rotation would certainly bode well for the right-hander’s earning power next winter, too.

The Reds have suggested that they’ll do everything in their power to retain Bauer, the clear-cut top arm on the free-agent market this winter, but it’s widely expected that he’ll land a more lucrative deal elsewhere. If that indeed proves to be the case, the Reds will head into 2021 with a still-strong group of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Wade Miley atop their starting staff.

Lorenzen won’t simply be penciled into the starting mix, but he joins Tyler Mahle and Tejay Antone (among others) as potential in-house options to round out the group. It still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Reds pick up a veteran starter this winter — particularly if Bauer departs — but a role change for Lorenzen could play a role both the club’s rotation and bullpen pursuits this winter.

Trevor Bauer Rejects Qualifying Offer

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In a move that will surprise no one, Trevor Bauer will reject the Reds’ qualifying offer, agent Rachel Luba announced on Twitter. There was never any doubt that Bauer, a Cy Young finalist in the National League, would turn down the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. By rejecting it, he’ll now be tied to draft pick compensation this winter, although that seems unlikely to stand in the way of him securing a considerably more lucrative contract.

Bauer, 30 in January, led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79), and he paced all of Major League Baseball with two shutouts and a paltry 5.1 hits per nine innings pitched. The former No. 3 overall draft pick was every bit the ace that Cincinnati hoped he’d be when acquiring him prior to the 2019 trade deadline, largely putting his rough two-month showing with the 2019 Reds in the rearview mirror.

It was the second Cy Young-caliber season for Bauer in three years, as he also turned in 175 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with the 2018 Indians. Over the past three seasons combined, Bauer has worked 461 1/3 innings with a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.38 FIP in addition to averages of 11.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Because Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, any club that signs him will now take a hit in next year’s draft. A team that paid the luxury tax (e.g. the Yankees) would surrender its second- and fifth-highest selections to sign Bauer. They’d also see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Clubs that receive revenue-sharing in a typical season and do not exceed the tax threshold are “only” required to sign their third-highest selection to sign a qualified free agent. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing and stay under the luxury barrier are penalized by forfeiting their second-highest pick and seeing their international pool reduced by $500K.

As for the Reds, they’ll be a very interested onlooker with regard to Bauer’s contract. The right-hander made it known for years that he did not ever plan to sign a multi-year deal, instead maxing out his earnings on a perpetual series of one-year pacts. The shortened nature of the term would, in theory, allow for greater earning potential so long as Bauer remained healthy and pitched well; teams are willing to pay a higher annual rate in order to avoid long-term risk. Recently, however, both Bauer and Luba have indicated that he’ll consider long-term deals in free agency as well.

That’s of particular importance for the Reds, as they’d receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft should Bauer sign elsewhere — but only if his total guarantee is greater than $50MM. If Bauer goes the one-year route, he’ll surely fall shy of that threshold, meaning the Reds would only be entitled to a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft. Essentially, it’s a difference of roughly 45 spots in the draft order, as well as the considerably greater slot value that is associated with the higher of the two selections.

Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers

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Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:

None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.

More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.

The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.

Nick Castellanos Doesn’t Opt Out Of Reds Contract

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Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos did not tell the team that he will be exercising the opt-out clause in his contract, according to multiple reporters.  As such, Castellanos will remain in Cincinnati for at least one more season, before facing another opt-out decision following the 2021 campaign.

Castellanos signed a four-year, $64MM deal with the Reds last winter, and his original $16MM salary for 2020 was prorated down to roughly $5.925MM as a result of the shortened season.  He is scheduled to make $14MM in 2021 and then $16MM in both 2022 and 2023, and the Reds have a $20MM mutual option on his services for the 2024 season that can be bought out for $2MM.

There wasn’t much doubt that Castellanos would pass on his opt-out opportunity, as the offseason marketplace figures to be a tight one for all but the uppermost tier of free agents.  It would have been very unlikely that Castellanos would have been able to top the three years and $48MM he has left in his Cincinnati contract, particularly because Castellanos produced average numbers (particularly by his standards) in 2020.

It was very much a tale of two seasons for the 28-year-old, as Castellanos hit a scorching .272/.352/.691 over his first 91 plate appearances in a Reds uniform, but then only .197/.265/.365 over his final 151 PA.  The end result was a 102 wRC+ and OPS+ for Castellanos, his lowest total in either metric in the last five seasons.

If Castellanos rebounds in 2021 and league-wide revenues are at least somewhat back to normal, he could explore using his opt-out clause in a year’s time.  2022 would be Castellanos’ age-30 season so time would still somewhat be on his side, and finding more than two years/$34MM could be feasible if he has another big offensive season under his belt.  Castellanos’ future market would also be helped if the National League has adopted the DH by then, as his right field defense continues to be below average.

Reds Outright Joel Kuhnel

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The Reds announced Monday that right-hander Joel Kuhnel has cleared waivers been assigned outright to Triple-A Louisville. Between Kuhnel’s outright and the Mets’ claim of Robel Garcia, the Reds have opened a pair of spots on the 40-man roster.

Kuhnel, 25, has pitched 12 2/3 innings with Cincinnati over the past two seasons, working to a combined 4.97 ERA with a 12-to-5 K/BB ratio and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in that limited sample. He averaged better than 96 mph on his heater in 2019 with a swinging-strike of 14.5 percent, though both those marks were down in 2020 — albeit in a minuscule sample of three innings (95.4 mph; 3.5 percent).

Kuhnel, an 11th-round pick by the Reds in 2016, obviously didn’t pitch much in a game setting this year thanks to the absence of a minor league season. His last extended minor league work came in 2019, when he notched a tidy 2.18 ERA with a 50-to-16 K/BB ratio in 53 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A.

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