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Pedro Strop On Cubs’ Interest In Free Agency

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This past offseason was not one to remember for the Cubs, a big-market, high-payroll team that spent a mere $3.5MM on free agents after failing to make the playoffs in 2019. The club also lost quite a few of its own notable free agents, including reliever Pedro Strop, even though the right-hander revealed Wednesday that Chicago had interest in retaining him.

“They did try hard to bring me back. It’s just money-wise, they couldn’t, because they weren’t allowed [with] all the salary cap stuff; they wanted to try to stay below,” Strop said (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times).

The 34-year-old Strop, a Cub from 2013-19, ended up with the National League Central rival Reds on a modest single-season pact worth $1.825MM. The Cubs weren’t even willing to go to those lengths for Strop, however, thanks in part to their desire to stay under the luxury tax (not the nonexistent salary cap) this year. They were one of three teams that had to pay the tax in 2019, when they were forced to fork over a $7.6MM bill. The threshold then was $206MM, but it has climbed to $208MM for 2020. Although they spent next to nothing over the winter, the Cubs project to start this season about $6MM over that mark, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs.

Should the tax really be a concern for the deep-pocketed Cubs? Arguably not. Regardless, there’s a case that the Cubs won’t get hurt by letting Strop walk, even though a divisional foe grabbed him for a relatively inexpensive guarantee. Strop was an excellent late-game option for a large portion of his tenure in Chicago, but he took noticeable steps backward last year. For example, Strop posted the worst full-season run prevention marks of his career (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP) and one of his highest walk rates (4.32 per nine) across 41 2/3 innings. Furthermore, after averaging more than 95 mph on his fastball in each of his prior seasons as a Cub, his mean velocity dropped to 93.7 in 2019. A Strop rebound remains possible, though, and the Cubs are left to hope he doesn’t return to his old form for a Reds team that bought low on him.

Reds' Tyler Mahle Okay Coming Out of Bullpen

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  • Tyler Mahle will be more than okay coming out of the bullpen for the Reds if that means staying in the big leagues, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In the rotation last year, Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA/4.66 FIP across 129 2/3 innings in 25 starts. According to Mahle, his biggest problem was the lack of an effective put away breaking ball, something he’s working on by adding a slider. There might be something to Mahle’s analysis, as his curveball induced a 26.6 whiff%. More to the point might be his 7.11 ERA against left-handed hitters, though it’s part and parcel of the same issue, likely.

Latest On Nick Senzel's Recovery

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Reds outfielder Nick Senzel could begin appearing in spring training games next week, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Senzel has been working back from the shoulder surgery he underwent last September, and though the Reds believe he’s versatile enough to handle all three outfield positions, they’re only going to play him in center until he’s fully healed, according to manager David Bell. “I know he could do it but allowing him to focus on one spot may be more important than any of our other outfielders just because they all have so much more experience out there than he does,” Bell said of Senzel, a former infield prospect who spent his rookie season in center. The 24-year-old’s one of several outfielders for the Reds, who also count Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Shogo Akiyama and Aristides Aquino among their options in the grass.

Trevor Bauer Discusses Future

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Always known for thinking outside the box, Reds right-hander Trevor Bauer has another unconventional idea: Wherever he signs as a free agent after this season, he wants to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

“It only seems crazy because no one is doing it right now,” Bauer said of his plan. “But I’m very convicted in the fact that, one, I can do it. Two, I would be better doing it. And three, it would be a benefit to my team.”

Along with that request, Bauer wants to play for a contender that respects him and values technology, Nightengale relays. That all seems reasonable enough, but whether anyone would sign him with the intention of starting him every fourth day is an open question. Regardless, it’s not the first time Bauer has expressed a willingness to pitch on short rest.

Back when he was a member of the Indians during the 2017 ALDS, Bauer made a start on three days’ rest, saying beforehand, “I consider this normal rest for me.” He added, “If I could draw it up personally, this is how I’d pitch every time.”

Bauer then went out and yielded four earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in a loss to the Yankees, though it wouldn’t be fair to pass judgment based on a one-game sample size.

Aside from offering his opinions on how much rest he prefers, Bauer has raised eyebrows in the past by expressing a desire to eschew long-term contracts and sign one-year deals for the rest of his career. While discussing that subject with Nightengale, the 29-year-old seemed less sure of how he’ll proceed.

“I mean, I don’t know how I’m going to react once free agency gets here,” Bauer stated. “I said what I said, but you can never know how it’s going to go until you actually get there.”

Bauer also noted that he’s not motivated by money at this point, having “made a lot of” it during his career. He earned just under $30MM in salaries from 2011-19, according to Baseball Reference, and will make another $17.5MM this season in his last year of arbitration control.

Bauer may be in for another big salary in 2021, but it’s fair to say that will depend in part on how he pitches this year. While he had a rough go of it with the Reds after they acquired him from the Indians last July, his combined production between the two teams was still decent. The hard-throwing Bauer wound up with a 4.48 ERA/4.34 FIP and 10.69 K/9 and 3.46 BB/9 in a career-best 213 innings (his fifth straight season with 175 or more frames), but those numbers pale in comparison to his all-world output from 2018.

NL Notes: Kershaw, Martinez, Freeman, Farmer

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Let’s take a look at the latest notes from the National League:

  • Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw was something of a surprise offseason Driveline Baseball student, Pedro Moura of The Athletic reports (subscription link). It’s by now common to hear of hurlers spending time at the renowned clinic, but the most accomplished pitcher of his generation? Kershaw says he was mostly intrigued by learning “how to create the most efficiency with your body, and how to create the most power with your body.” President of baseball ops Andrew Friedman calls it a testament to the superstar lefty’s curiosity. No doubt a devastating postseason exit played a role. It’ll be interesting to see how the effort translates as Kershaw attempts to continue to evolve as he ages. (Long-time division rival Mason Saunders prefers a somewhat different offseason regimen.)
  • The Cardinals seem hopeful that righty Carlos Martinez can return to being a quality rotation piece in 2020. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club still feels Martinez has exceptional talent. But it’s equally clear there’s still uncertainty. Manager Mike Shildt says Martinez is “out here giving himself a legitimate shot to compete” for a starting job, but notes that “what he does during the work and how he recovers between games that are going [to matter] as we start to ramp it up.” In other words, as Goold puts it, the organization believes Martinez must “embrace a more consistent between-start and pregame approach.” Whether Martinez can find his groove could make quite the difference in the Cards’ 2020 outlook, particularly with Miles Mikolas set to miss time.
  • We heard chatter about Freddie Freeman’s late-2019 elbow issues, but it seems the injury was a fair bit more debilitating than the Braves slugger let on. As Jeff Schultz of The Athletic reports (subscription link), Freeman dealt not only with pain, but with quite a lot of difficulties relating to his efforts to deal with the agonizing bone spurs in his joint. Schultz writes that the star first baseman relied heavily upon pain pills just to be able to play. But that came with other problems: “He had gotten into bad habits, cutting his swing short, because of the injury. The lack of sleep and accompanying stress made things worse.” The story speaks to Freeman’s determination, but it’s also a bit worrisome to read of his travails. Thankfully, it seems offseason surgery has eliminated the need for such drastic measures in 2020.
  • The Reds roster remains fun to watch even as Spring Training gets underway. The team placed some bat-first bets around the lineup but also installed Freddie Galvis at shortstop. He’s currently without a reserve complement, but the Reds are now looking to find one in a somewhat surprising place. As MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes, Kyle Farmer will be given a shot at adding reserve shortstop to his already lengthy list of responsibilities. The 29-year-old has plenty of amateur experience at the position and has spent a bit of time there as a pro, but he has primarily been tasked with playing behind the dish and at third base since being drafted. It seems the Reds are comfortable playing Farmer just about anywhere on the infield; he could be an interesting asset if he’s able to improve upon last year’s tepid offensive showing.

Health Notes: Suarez, Piscotty, Archer, Clase/Civale

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Fortunately, there hasn’t been much in the way of negative health news to this point of Spring Training. Let’s check in on a few issues that have arisen …

  • Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez is feeling both excitement and some trepidation as he nears readiness to test his recently tweaked shoulder, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Indication remains that Suarez could conceivably be ready to roll on Opening Day. He says he’s getting his timing down even as he avoids throwing or swinging full-bore. But there are also some nerves as he prepares to ramp up. “Just a little bit because I know I have something there,” Suarez said when asked whether he’s nervous. “I don’t want to get hurt again. I have to be careful. We’ll see what happens.”
  • After a disappointing 2019 season, the last thing Athletics outfielder Stephen Piscotty wants to deal with is another injury issue. Right now, the hope is that his oblique/rib cage problem isn’t going to represent a major limitation, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. But Piscotty might be down for another week and it’s beginning to look like Opening Day readiness could be in doubt. That’d be a disappointment, of course, but it’s surely better than rushing back and ending up with a bigger problem.
  • Neck tightness kept Pirates righty Chris Archer from making a scheduled outing today, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. There hasn’t been a substantial update just yet, but there’s no reason to believe that this is more than a minor blip.
  • It’s a similar situation in Indians’ camp, where righties Emmanuel Clase and Aaron Civale have been limited. As MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets, the former is dealing with lat discomfort and the latter a sore groin. While Clase is going to slow his build-up to let things calm down, Civale is preparing to throw a sim game.

Red Sox, Padres Reportedly Still Negotiating Wil Myers Swap

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FEBRUARY 19: The Pads are indeed interested in both Lindor and Senzel, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports (subscription link). It’s even possible that the Myers talks with the Red Sox could morph into a three-team arrangement involving the Reds, Lin adds.

FEBRUARY 18: Spring Training is now upon us. Prior talks failed to result in a deal. And yet the Red Sox are still holding talks with the Padres about a potential deal that would send first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers to Boston, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Details are about as firm as you could ever hope to see them in a rumor of a potential swap. As before, the Friars want the Sox to take over about half of Myers’s salary (total guarantee of $61MM) over the next three years. Young talent would go to Boston to sweeten the pot. Players that have been discussed include Cal Quantrill, Luis Campusano, and Gabriel Arias, though it’s not clear which would be included and the Sox wouldn’t be able to obtain all of them just to take on half of what’s owed Myers.

That leaves out one major component of the as-yet-uncompleted trade talks: what would come back from the Red Sox? The original chatter between these teams involved Mookie Betts, who is no longer in the Boston stable. There’s no real indication just yet as to what current Red Sox might pique the interest of Padres GM A.J. Preller.

Yet more intriguing? The real goal, per Acee, is to swing a blockbuster for a high-level talent. He notes Nick Senzel of the Reds and Francisco Lindor of the Indians as longstanding targets, but it’s not really clear whether either is realistically available at this point. There aren’t many other conceivable candidates to be acquired who’d meet the description of a “difference-making” performer.

It’s fair to hold some skepticism here, especially as to the possible second prong of this scenario. Then again, Preller once pulled off a trade for Craig Kimbrel just before the start of a season, so it’s tough to rule out any mid-spring fireworks.

MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?

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With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.

The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.

Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt’s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.

The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.

Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?

(Poll link for app users)

Nick Senzel Discusses Trade Rumors

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As of a few weeks ago, the Reds were reportedly “considering” trade scenarios centering on Nick Senzel. However, president of baseball operations Dick Williams then suggested the outfielder/second baseman isn’t going anywhere. That’s fine with Senzel, who said Monday (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer): “I’m happy to be here. I want to be here for my whole career. I want to play in Cincinnati for these fans and my teammates. Any time those talks come up or anything, there is literally nothing I can do about it. I have no control over it. The less I worry about it, the better.” Senzel then noted trade rumors are “part of the business, especially when top names are getting thrown around.” Indeed, it never seemed as if the Reds would move Senzel during the winter without getting back a star-caliber player in return.

Bell: Suarez Could Be Ready For Opening Day

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Despite undergoing shoulder surgery to remove some loose cartilage in late January, Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez could potentially be ready to go by Opening Day, manager David Bell told reporters Thursday (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

The injury was never expected to sideline Suarez for too much of the 2020 campaign; the Cincinnati organization announced at the time of the procedure that Suarez would be ready to play in games “near the beginning of the regular season.” That’s a relatively nebulous statement, but Bell suggests that recent tests/updates have encouraged the team.

Suarez’s injury status will be notable to follow for several reasons. Beyond the simple fact that he’s emerged as one of the National League’s better players and is on a club that enters the 2020 season more poised to contend that at any point in the past five years, Suarez’s status figures to have a ripple effect throughout the organization. Offseason signee Mike Moustakas was added with the idea that he’d move to second base on a full-time basis, but it’s conceivable that he could see action at third base early in the year should Suarez need some IL time. That could open the door for a non-roster player such as Derek Dietrich to again break camp with Cincinnati or for a younger player like Josh VanMeter to get some regular reps early in 2020.

The Reds surely want Suarez in the lineup as soon as possible, given that the 28-year-old broke out with a massive .271/.358/.572 slash and 49 home runs this past season. At the same time, the club also has to resist the temptation to rush him back into the fold, as a healthy Suarez figures to be a key anchor in a lineup that was bolstered by the offseason additions of Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama.

The 2019-20 offseason saw the Pirates take a step back, the Brewers scale back payroll (while still making numerous low-cost moves), the Cardinals make only minimal additions and the Cubs barely even try to improve at all. The Reds look to be the most improved club in the division, and the extent to which Suarez is able to contribute should be an important factor in their chances of returning to contention in 2020.

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