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Nationals Expected To Activate Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

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In trading away much of their current roster before yesterday’s trade deadline, the Nationals prioritized talent that was close to Major League ready. The hope and expectation was that many of the players acquired over the past few days will soon join Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and company in DC to begin shaping the next Washington contender.

As such, it is expected that Mason Thompson — acquired from the Padres in the Daniel Hudson deal — will be activated and placed on the active roster later today, while Josiah Gray — a key piece in the Max Scherzer trade — will be activated to join the rotation later this weekend, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). They won’t need a corresponding roster move to add Thompson, as the Nats played with only a 25-man roster for yesterday’s game.

Gray immediately becomes the most interesting starter in the Nationals’ rotation — as well as the most important. There’s little reason to hold him in the minors for any length of time, except for the fact that the 24-year-old has very little pitching experience in the grand scheme of things and only 15 2/3 innings at Triple-A. Looking to maximize the three-year window following this season before Juan Soto hits free agency, the Nats have little time to waste in letting Gray try to establish himself as a pro-ready starter.

Besides, the Nationals have very few options in the upper minors, and they need to fill two rotation spots after trading Scherzer and Jon Lester. Gray will slot right into the rotation behind Patrick Corbin and Joe Ross, with Erick Fedde and Paolo Espino likely to hold down the other two spots.

The same is true in the bullpen, where the departures of Brad Hand and Hudson leave glaring holes. Kyle Finnegan has stepped in as the closer for now, but in the long-term, the rest of the bullpen is largely up for grabs. Tanner Rainey has been off all season, though they certainly hope he can find himself again before the year is out. Wander Suero has long been a middle reliever who sometimes plays up into a setup role for manager Dave Martinez. Will Harris should be a key man, but he can’t seem to stay healthy.

Thompson, 23, should have every opportunity to carve out a role for himself. Baseball America ranked him as the Padres’ 15th-ranked prospect in the midseason report — and he figures to be considerably higher in a talent-poor Nationals system. BA pegged him for middle or late relief, noting a 94-98 mph heater, 12-to-6 curve, and above-average change-up.

All in all, it’s prove yourself season in Washington, where Thompson, Gray, as well as Lane Thomas, Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia, and probably Keibert Ruiz should have the next two months to prove they are ready to be regular Major Leaguers.

Dodgers Acquire Max Scherzer And Trea Turner From Nationals For Four Prospects

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In a stunning deadline blockbuster, the Dodgers acquired stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. In exchange, Los Angeles sent back four prospects, including two of the top young talents in baseball. Catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handers Josiah Gray and Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey are go to Washington. Scherzer waived his no-trade rights to facilitate the deal.

It had become clear in recent days the Nationals were likely to trade Scherzer, but the saga took its share of twists and turns along the way. The division-rival Padres were reportedly close to landing the three-time Cy Young award winner earlier in the afternoon. Other teams — the Dodgers among them — lurked on the periphery, though, and Los Angeles jumped in as the Nationals’ talks with San Diego never got across the finish line. In the process, the Dodgers also add one of the game’s best position players as part of a jaw-dropping package deal.

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.

It’s the continuation of what was a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. That deal proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17 and was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. Perhaps most importantly, Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.

Scherzer now joins a rotation that already includes Walker Buehler and is expected to soon welcome back Clayton Kershaw from the injured list. That trio would make for an incredible top three in any postseason series, to say nothing of the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin as options for a fourth game and/or multi-inning work out of the bullpen. (Trevor Bauer remains on administrative leave after being accused of assault; it’s not clear if/when he’ll return to the team this season).

Of course, the Dodgers still need to solidify their chances of making a playoff series to unleash that three-headed monster in October. The Dodgers are almost certain to make the playoffs in some capacity, but the Giants somewhat surprisingly remain three games up on them in the NL West race. The competition at the top of the division from San Francisco and San Diego could leave the Dodgers staring down a one-game playoff. Acquiring Scherzer gives Los Angeles another ace to potentially take the ball in a Wild Card game, but it also increases their odds of winning the division and avoiding the contest altogether.

Incredibly, Scherzer is likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ haul. While Scherzer’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner is controllable through 2022 via arbitration and every bit as productive. Turner has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the 28-year-old is hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.

Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.

A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’ll continue to do so in Los Angeles, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.

Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could use Turner in a utility-type capacity for the remainder of this season and plug him in as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere.

Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player group that was already among the league’s best. Seager has missed two months after fracturing his hand, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this weekend. Turner, who landed on the injured list this week after testing positive for COVID-19 in what’ll apparently be his final game as a National, is out for at least the next week-plus.

Unsurprisingly, adding two of the sport’s best players will cost quite a bit — both financially and from a talent perspective. Scherzer is playing out the year on a $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Scherzer’s remaining salary for 2021 (which won’t actually be paid out for seven years). Presumably, the Nationals will remain on the hook for all the deferred payments for time he’s already spent in Washington.

Turner, meanwhile, is making $13MM in his penultimate year of arbitration, which the Dodgers will also assume. Around $4.5MM of that sum remains to be paid, and he’ll surely be in line for a sizable raise this winter during his final trip through the arb process.

In addition to those salaries, the Dodgers are set to take on rather significant expenditures in luxury tax payments. The remainder of Scherzer’s contract contains a luxury tax hit in the $10MM range, while Turner’s CBT number exactly matches that of his real salary. Altogether, the Dodgers are adding something in the realm of $14.5MM to their luxury tax ledger.

That’s significant but apparently not much of a deterrent. Even before today’s acquisitions, the Dodgers had a CBT number north of $260MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That places them in the highest tax bracket, with Los Angeles subject to a 62.5% tax on any dollar spent over that mark. By assuming the remainder of Scherzer’s and Turner’s deals, the Dodgers are agreeing to pay somewhere in the range of $9MM in penalties on top of the money they’ll owe to the players.

Ownership is apparently willing to do exactly that in service of constructing a potential super-team. The defending World Series champions were arguably the most talented club in the league already, and they’ve added Scherzer, Turner and Danny Duffy to that loaded roster the day before the trade deadline.

To make that happen, Los Angeles has parted with a couple of baseball’s most talented young players. Ruiz has seemingly been on top prospect lists forever, but he’s still just 23 years old. He’s only picked up 15 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’d likely have accrued far more playing time were he playing in most other organizations.

With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers’ current and long-term catcher, there simply hasn’t been much opportunity for Ruiz. That said, the switch-hitting backstop has earned a major league look. He’s performed well at basically every minor league stop, and that’s continued in 2021.

Ruiz is hitting a massive .311/.381/.631 with 16 home runs across 231 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America just ranked him the league’s #16 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update, lauding his elite bat-to-ball skills and suggesting he’s a solid enough defender to stick behind the plate. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ruiz to settle in as an above-average or All-Star caliber catcher given his rare offensive upside for the position.

Ruiz is already on the 40-man roster and would seem to be a big league caliber option for the Nats this season. He’s in his final minor league option year, so he’ll need to break camp with the Nationals in 2022.

Gray wasn’t too far behind Ruiz on BA’s top 100 list, checking in 56th overall and second in the Los Angeles system. The young starter draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and fantastic athleticism, which allows him to throw strikes at a strong rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Gray as the sport’s #29 prospect entering the season (he’s up to 21st following other players’ graduations), calling him a likely “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak.

The 23-year-old made his major league debut last week and has pitched in a pair of big league games. Gray spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, although an injured list stint caused him to miss a fair amount of time. He tossed 15 2/3 innings of 2.87 ERA ball before his promotion, his first crack at the minors’ top level.

Neither Ruiz nor Gray will accrue enough big league time to reach a full year of service in 2021. They won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season and aren’t likely to qualify for arbitration until the 2024-25 offseason. Both players have the opportunity to be long-term stalwarts in D.C., with many potential games featuring a Gray-Ruiz battery over the coming years. Gray still has all three options remaining.

Carrillo will also step directly onto Washington’s 40-man roster. His contract was selected last winter to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but Carrillo hasn’t yet appeared in the majors. He’s spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa, tossing 59 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. The 22-year-old has struck out a strong 26.2% of batters faced but walked an alarming 10.9% of opponents.

Both Baseball America and FanGraphs suggest that lack of control is likely to eventually push Carrillo to the bullpen, but his mid-90’s sinker and power breaking ball could suit him quite well in short stints. Longenhagen slots Carrillo tenth in the Nationals system assuming the trade is completed.

Casey will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The former 20th-round pick (2017) isn’t seen as a particularly strong prospect, but he’s having a quality season in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment. The 25-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.462 with 11 home runs across 334 plate appearances with Tulsa. Casey has seen action at all three outfield positions.

The blockbuster completely changes the National League outlook. The Dodgers add two of the game’s best players to a tight divisional race, seemingly acquiring Scherzer out of the Padres grasp. With a few high-profile targets (José Berríos, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant chief among them) still having a chance to wind up on the move, the Dodgers’ in-state division rivals figure to be active themselves as the deadline approaches.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Nationals and Dodgers were in serious discussions about a deal involving Scherzer and Turner. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported Ruiz’s and Casey’s involvement in the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Gray’s inclusion, while Jim Bowden of the Athletic was first to identify Carrillo as part of the deal. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report Scherzer’s willingness to waive his no-trade rights, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that the Dodgers would assume Scherzer’s and Turner’s remaining 2021 financial obligations.

Dodgers Promote Josiah Gray

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The Dodgers announced they’ve promoted top pitching prospect Josiah Gray. He’ll make his major league debut during tonight’s game with the rival Giants.

Selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2018 draft out of Division II Le Moyne College, Gray was traded to Los Angeles a few months later as part of the deal that sent Yasiel Puig to Cincinnati. The following season, he emerged as one of the game’s better pitching prospects. He dominated across three minor league levels in 2019, demonstrating a three-pitch mix and surprisingly advanced command for a player who didn’t convert to pitching full-time until his final season at Le Moyne.

Entering the year, Gray appeared on the top 100 prospect lists of each of Baseball America, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs and Keith Law of the Athletic. Longenhagen was the most bullish of that trio, slotting the 23-year-old as the #29 prospect leaguewide. In his scouting report, Longenhagen raved about Gray’s repertoire and strong fastball command, noting that he projects to be a “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak. BA and Law echoed those sentiments, pointing to Gray’s continued development of his secondary pitches and strong understanding of pitching as reasons for optimism he’ll continue to improve.

Gray has reached Triple-A Oklahoma City for the first time this year, but a shoulder injury sidelined him for two months. He’s only made four appearances because of that, but Gray’s shown no difficulty adapting to the minors’ highest level. He’s allowed just five runs across 15 2/3 innings, striking out 22 while issuing a pair of walks.

Adding rotation help before the July 30 trade deadline figures to be a priority for the Dodgers. Los Angeles trails the Giants by one game in a tightly-contested NL West. Gray pitching well right out of the gate would go a long way towards stabilizing the starting staff, although that’ll likely be a target area for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office regardless of Gray’s early performance.

Even if Gray is in the majors for good, he won’t reach free agency until the conclusion of the 2027 season. He’s not slated for arbitration eligibility until the 2024-25 offseason. Future optional assignments could push back that service time projection.

NL West Notes: Muncy, Bellinger, Seager, Gray, Dickerson, Ruf, Rockies, Weil

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The Dodgers are aiming to put much of their lineup back together in time for a big three-game series with the Padres beginning on Monday.  As of now, the hope is that Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger could both come off the injured list in time for at least part of that series, L.A. manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (all Twitter links) and other reporters.  Muncy (oblique strain) and Bellinger (hamstring tightness) both haven’t played since June 11 and are eligible to be activated off the 10-day IL on June 22.  The duo each took part in a simulated game at the Dodgers’ Spring Training facility today, Roberts said.  Corey Seager (fractured hand) might not be too far behind them, as he is tentatively to begin a rehab assignment next week after being sidelined since May 15 due to a fractured hand.

The news isn’t as positive for Dodgers pitching prospect Josiah Gray, as Roberts said Gray is “a ways down the road” in being ready to return from a shoulder impingement.  A consensus top-100 prospect in baseball, Gray made his Triple-A debut this season but pitched in only one game before getting injured.  The 23-year-old right-hander had been projected to make his Major League debut later this year assuming things went well at Triple-A, but Gray might not have too long to get healthy and then make a good impression on the mound if he is going to factor into the Dodgers’ September call-up plans.

More from the NL West…

  • Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) that Alex Dickerson and Darin Ruf are beginning minor league rehab assignments today.  Ruf was placed on the 10-day IL with a right hamstring strain on May 27, while an upper back strain sent Dickerson to the IL on June 9.  With so many members of the first-place Giants playing well, Slusser thinks the impending returns of Dickerson and Ruf could create a bit of a roster crunch.  Someone like Mike Tauchman, for instance, couldn’t be easily moved off the roster since he is out of minor league options, so the Giants would have to first expose him to waivers if they wanted to send him to Triple-A.
  • The Rockies parted ways with assistant GM Jon Weil earlier this week, with The Athletic’s Nick Groke adding some more details about the front office situation.  Weil was told that the team wouldn’t be renewing his contract, which ended Weil’s 16-year run in the organization.  Between Weil leaving and VP of scouting Bill Schmidt being promoted to the interim GM job, both Weil’s and Schmidt’s former roles haven’t been filled, as the team has instead moved their responsibilities around to other current employees.  In addition, the baseball operations department is being overseen by Rockies president of business operations Greg Feasel.  This doesn’t seem like an ideal situation for a Rockies club that looks to be approaching a critical trade deadline and potential rebuilding period, — as Groke puts it, “a potential trade of [Trevor] Story and [Jon] Gray will be left to a business-minded president with no baseball experience, an interim GM with only two remaining lieutenants, and no true research department.”

Los Angeles Notes: Ohtani, Watson, Gonsolin, Price, Gray, Morrow

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Shohei Ohtani’s scheduled start against the Rays on Monday is now up in the air after he was hit on the right elbow by a pitch during his first plate appearances in today’s 2-0 Angels loss to the Mariners.  Ohtani stayed in the lineup for the remainder of the game, and in fact stole two bases after being plunked.  Angels manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) that Ohtani “was sore, but he kept telling me he was feeling better game-in-progress.”

All options seem to be on the table for Monday, whether that means Ohtani is scratched from the lineup altogether, or perhaps only pitches or only acts as the designated hitter, or if he feels fine and fills both roles as originally planned.  Surely the Halos aren’t going to take any unnecessary risks with such an important player, particularly one enjoying as special of a season as Ohtani’s ongoing campaign.  He is hitting .263/.311/.606 with eight homers (and six steals from seven chances, to boot) over 106 plate appearances, while also posting a 3.29 ERA/4.52 SIERA and 37.1% strikeout rate, albeit with a very troubling 21% walk rate.

More from both the Angels and Dodgers….

  • Tony Watson was placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to April 29) due to a left calf strain, the Angels announced prior to today’s game.  Right-hander James Hoyt was called up from the alternate training site to take Watson’s roster spot.  After opting out of a minor league deal with the Phillies near the end of Spring Training, Watson inked a new minors deal with the Angels just prior to Opening Day, and the veteran has posted some excellent bottom-line results over 8 1/3 innings.  Watson has an 1.08 ERA, though with the help of a 100% strand rate and an .182 BABIP.  While some regression is inevitable, Watson still has a 2.57 SIERA, and he has often outperformed his advanced metrics during his 11-year career.
  • With Dustin May now the latest Dodgers pitcher to hit the injured list, the team is in the rare position of being somewhat short on pitching depth.  Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register) that the Dodgers are considering a four-man rotation, since a fifth starter won’t be required until May 18 thanks to three upcoming off-days on the schedule.  Tony Gonsolin is currently being stretched out to work as a starting pitcher when he returns from his own IL stint due to shoulder inflammation, and Roberts said Gonsolin is roughly three-to-four weeks away from being activated.
  • David Price hit the IL with a right hamstring strain on April 26, and Roberts estimated that the southpaw could beat (or at least be on the low end of) his projected four-to-six week recovery timeline.  Since Gonsolin is the pick as May’s replacement, Price will resume his previous bullpen role when he returns to action.  Roberts also noted that Josiah Gray, the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect, isn’t currently a candidate for a promotion to fill the rotation job.
  • Brandon Morrow stopped his throwing program due to arm problems, Roberts said, and the veteran right-hander’s comeback attempt looks uncertain.  “B-Mo just hasn’t responded to treatment,” Roberts said.  “It’s been a tough road for B-Mo and his family, so I don’t know if it’s even gonna be a play this year.  Obviously, I’m hopeful.”  Morrow signed a minors deal with the Dodgers in December, hoping to return to the majors for the first time since back and elbow injuries halted his career in 2018.

MLBTR Poll: Who Won The Dodgers/Reds Trade?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds recently agreed to a seven-player trade that shook up the National League and set the rumor mill afire. In case you missed it, the deal sent the quartet of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Kyle Farmer, plus $7MM cash to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and two prospects: Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, the Reds’ 13th and 8th ranked prospects, respectively, per Fangraphs. Reactions and analysis have landed on both sides of the ledger, though any subsequent transactions stemming from the payroll and roster changes on either side will give further cause for debate down the line.

The Reds have been vocal about upgrading no matter the cost this winter, especially for pitching, and while the additions were to presumably come via increased spending in free agency, here they explore a more creative means of adding talent. Having seen enough of Homer Bailey over the years, President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams put the $28MM owed Bailey to good use in acquiring three proven major league contributors. Under different circumstances, Williams might be praised for not handcuffing the team with future payroll obligations, but given that this deal feels in part driven by Cincinnati’s inability to attract major free agents, the one-year contracts of Puig, Kemp and Wood only highlights the lack of guaranteed long-term value in the return.

The primary critique here for the Reds is that they surrendered twelve total years of control in Downs and Gray, who slot in as the Dodgers’ new #7 and #16 ranked prospects, per MLB.com. The complete absence of guaranteed future value puts a lot of pressure on the team to capitalize in 2019, a real challenge coming off a 95-loss season. Should Puig, Kemp and Wood walk at the end of the year, they will have surrendered legitimate future talent for a trio that’s not likely to pull them from the depths of the NL Central. Even if the Reds do surprise this season and leapfrog the Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, they still could lose this trio to free agency and be worse off for the future than they were before their acquisition.

On the other hand, attendance has waned at Great American Ballpark. Puig’s power and personality both ought to play well there and give fans something to root for. Further, if for instance, they’ve been unable to get much traction on this year’s crop of lefty free agent starters, then having a one year head start with Wood might be the best way to sign him long-term in Cincinnati. Prospects are high-risk assets, and it could be the Reds don’t believe the future value of Downs and Gray is all that high. Or, they might be banking on getting better prospect value in return at the trade deadline should the Reds fall out of contention early. There’s a lot of speculation above, but the fact is the Reds front office found a way to turn Homey Bailey into two exciting, productive players/trade chips (plus Matt Kemp).

For the Dodgers, they jettisoned 6 fWAR from their 2018 pennant winning team for $28MM in dead money and a pair of prospects. If they don’t turn around and use the cost savings in free agency, that’s a lot of talent to send away just so their billionaire owners can avoid paying the luxury tax. For all Puig’s antics, he brought real fire to the club, and in his six seasons with the team, not only did he accumulate 16.8 fWAR, but they won the NL West in each of those six seasons. As for Wood, one could argue there’s a lot of uncertainty around the lefties remaining in the Dodger rotation: Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu have not been fully healthy, Rich Hill, 38, is a full decade older than Wood and Julio Urias, 22, may be ready to step into the rotation, but after missing almost all of 2018, he’s far from a sure thing. Wood has his own injury history, but he is a proven asset when healthy, which he has been of late, and he carries a career 3.29 ERA (3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). As the adage goes, you can never have enough pitching.

On the other hand, the Dodgers added two pretty decent prospects and slipped below the tax line (for now) while dealing from areas of depth. The outfield was log-jammed anyway with Kemp and Puig. Without them, there should be enough at bats to go around for Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger. Plus, top prospect Alex Verdugo, still only 22, may finally have the opportunity to shine at the big league level. As for the rotation, add Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda to the names above and the Dodgers have enough top-of-the-line starting pitching to enter 2019 even if they decide to pocket the savings from this deal. Kemp and Puig were fun, but they were volatile on-field assets who were going to siphon at bats from the younger, higher upside outfielders (namely, Bellinger and Verdugo) already on the roster.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Bryce Harper. Heads were immediately sent spinning with the possibility of this move being a precursor to the Dodgers signing Harper in free agency, and what’s worse – that makes a lot of sense. They cleared payroll space and positional opportunity, in doing so creating the market/payroll/need fit that previously didn’t seem to exist for Harper. The White Sox and Phillies are ready to spend, but they likely can’t compete with a fully armed Los Angeles payroll. The Cubs are said to be watching, the Nationals haven’t given up on him in theory, and nobody believes the Yankees when they say they aren’t interested, which is, in-and-of-itself, a testament to how classic a suitor they really are.

This blockbuster has the makings of a touchstone moment that will, in part, define this winter’s dealings, but it’s time to see where MLBTR readers land on judging the returns. Does the flexibility this deal affords the Dodgers make them the winners? Or did the Reds take advantage of the Dodgers desire to shed some payroll and walk away with the better return? Let us know your Dodgers grade, your Reds grade, and who you think “won the deal” in this poll.

Reaction & Analysis: The Dodgers/Reds Trade

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The Dodgers and Reds joined forces on a fascinating seven-player swap on Friday that saw Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, and $7MM in cash considerations go to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey and prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.  With so many financial and on-field components to this trade, it isn’t any surprise that has been a lot of analysis surrounding what this means for both the Reds and Dodgers both in terms of the pieces involved in this specific deal, and in future moves both this winter and beyond.  Here are some of the many takes on this noteworthy trade…

  • Immediately after news of the trade broke, the buzz was that the Dodgers’ latest round of “baseball money-laundering” (as one executive described it to ESPN’s Buster Olney) was a step towards a push for Bryce Harper.  It remains to be seen if the Dodgers would really be willing to offer the decade-long, record-breaking contract that agent Scott Boras is demanding for his client, as such a move isn’t characteristic of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.  A shorter-term deal with a record-setting average annual salary likely wouldn’t appeal to Boras, Olney notes, but Harper himself could be open to such a deal if he is truly as eager to join the Dodgers as some reports have claimed.
  • The Dodgers also could have been paring their payroll not for Harper, but for targets in the 2019-20 offseason, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.  With Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, David Freese, and Bailey’s salary all coming off the books, Los Angeles will have $64MM to spend on free agents and trade targets next winter.  Now that the team has finally gotten under the luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers might want to minimize their penalty by only taking a one-year hit next offseason rather than again surpass the threshold this winter (i.e. to sign Harper) and thus position themselves for a heftier repeater tax in a year’s time.
  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required) didn’t love the trade from the Reds’ perspective, writing that Cincinnati “got a little bit better, but perhaps not as much as they need to” in order to really contend for the postseason.  Puig and Wood represent upgrades on paper, though both players come with their share of question marks, and Law argues that the Reds would benefit using Kemp solely as a backup while Jesse Winker gets everyday action in left left.  Law provides some scouting info on Downs and Gray, and notes that the Reds got a lot of trade calls about Gray this offseason.
  • In contrast to Law, The Athletic’s Mo Egger (subscription required) calls the trade “a no-brainer” move for the Reds, arguing that the team benefits simply by gaining some productive MLB regulars for Bailey, who hasn’t been an effective pitcher for years due to injuries.  While this trade alone won’t make the Reds into contenders, Egger feels more is yet to come this offseason, as Cincinnati still hasn’t made any big free agent signings or begun spending its promised extra payroll dollars.
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