Vida Blue Passes Away
Former MVP left-hander Vida Blue passed away at the age of 73, per an announcement by the Athletics.
“There are few players with a more decorated career than Vida Blue.” the A’s said in a statement, “Vida will always be a franchise legend and a friend. We send our deepest condolences to his family and friends during this arduous time.”
A six-time All Star and three-time World Series champion, Blue played seventeen seasons in the major leagues, with fifteen of them being played in the Bay Area. Blue debuted as a 19-year-old for the Athletics in 1969, their second season in Oakland after moving there from Kansas City after the 1967 season. Blue pitched just 80 2/3 innings over his first two seasons in the majors, but upon shifting into a full time role as a 21-year-old during the 1971 season, Blue would turn in an incredible performance.
Blue pitched 312 innings for the A’s over 39 starts in 1971, posting a microscopic 1.82 ERA that was 83% better than league average by measure of ERA+ and a 2.20 FIP that largely backed up Blue’s dazzling run prevention numbers. Blue’s phenomenal season saw him lead the league with eight shutouts while also posting league-best marks in ERA, FIP, strikeout rate, WHIP. Naturally, Blue’s performance earned him not only the first All Star appearance of his career, but a Cy Young award and the AL MVP award as well.
Blue would go on to pitch six more seasons in Oakland, posting a 3.10 ERA and 3.25 FIP while averaging over 250 innings of work per season. He would make two more All Star appearances, finish top 7 in AL Cy Young award voting three times, and receive MVP votes twice during that time before moving on to San Francisco in 1978 at the age of 28. Most notably, Blue was integral to the A’s three consecutive World Series championships from 1972-1974.
Blue’s first season in San Francisco was another remarkable one, as he posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.68 FIP en route to a fourth All Star appearance, a top three finish in Cy Young award voting, and a 12th place finish in NL MVP voting. He would pitch in San Francisco for three more seasons, picking up another two All Star appearances along the way, before pitching for the Kansas City Royals for two seasons. Blue returned to San Francisco in 1985, posting a 3.82 ERA in 287 2/3 innings between the 1985 and 1986 seasons before retiring at the end of the 1986 campaign.
Overall, Blue finished his playing career with a 209 wins, a 3.27 ERA, and 2,175 strikeouts in 3,343 1/3 innings. Following his playing career, Blue remained a fixture of Bay Area baseball thanks to his charitable efforts and dedication to promoting the sport, both in the US and abroad. We at MLB Trade Rumors offer our condolences to Blue’s family, friends, and all those mourning him today.
Kyle Isbel To Miss Six Weeks With Grade 2 Hamstring Strain
The Royals announced some roster moves earlier today, with outfielder Kyle Isbel going on the 10-day injured list with a hamstring strain and left-hander Austin Cox optioned to Triple-A. Those roster spots were taken by infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton and right-hander Jonathan Heasley, both of them getting recalled from Omaha. Manager Matt Quatraro tells Anne Rogers of MLB.com that Isbel has a Grade 2 hamstring strain and will be sidelined for six weeks.
Isbel, 26, was a third round pick in the 2018 draft and has been considered one of the club’s top prospects in recent years. Baseball America had him in the top 10 among Royal farmhands for four years straight beginning in 2019. He reached the majors in 2021 and has had roughly a full season’s worth of playing time since then, getting into 160 games with 457 plate appearances.
He hasn’t been able to contribute much at the plate in that time, currently sporting a batting line of .222/.274/.359 for a wRC+ of 73. He’s struck out in 25.6% of his trips to the plate and walked in just 5.9% of them. He has been able to contribute in other ways, however. He’s played all three outfield positions and has accrued +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +14 Outs Above Average and a 9.1 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. When combined with his 13 stolen bases, he’s been worth 1.3 wins above replacement, even with that tepid offensive production. Any kind of step forward at the plate would make him a solid everyday player.
Unfortunately, he’ll now have to miss the next few weeks with this injury, which is unfortunate timing. Despite his lack of offense this year, he may have been able to continue getting regular playing time. The Royals traded Michael A. Taylor this winter, seemingly at least partially motivated as a way to clear a path for Drew Waters to get everyday playing time in center field. But Waters suffered an oblique strain in February and has been on the injured list all year. He was set to start a rehab assignment this week but it was recently reported that some lower back tightness has put those plans on pause. That could have allowed Isbel continued reps at the position but he’ll now have to join Waters on the IL instead.
The Royals will now have to figure out how to proceed up the middle without either of those two. Quatraro tells Rogers that Jackie Bradley Jr. and Nate Eaton will be the primary options with Maikel Garcia in the mix as well. Bradley is an excellent defender but has been one of the worst hitters in the majors in recent years, including a tepid .156/.255/.200 showing this season. Eaton is primarily an infielder but has some time on the grass, while Garcia has only played infield thus far in his career.
Royals Notes: Isbel, Waters, Melendez
Royals center fielder Kyle Isbel left yesterday’s game against the Orioles with a left hamstring strain, as noted by MLB.com’s Anne Rogers. The severity of Isbel’s strain isn’t currently known, but it seems likely he’ll miss at least some time with the injury.
Isbel, was a third round pick by the Royals in the 2018 draft. He made his debut in 2021 with a solid 28-game cup of coffee, slashing .276/.337/.434 in 83 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of 108. Paired with his excellent center field defense, that slash line left him poised to potentially be an above average regular for Kansas City going forward. Unfortunately, Isbel has yet to deliver on that promise, as his bat has taken a turn for the worse since the start of the 2022 season. Over the past two seasons, Isbel has slashed just .210/.260/.343 in 374 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of just 65.
Isbel’s hamstring injury may put any attempts to get things back on track on hold for the 26-year-old outfielder. Despite his meager offensive performance, however, the injury still figures to be a considerable blow to the Royals if Isbel misses time. His glove in center field is still among the best available, and the club is lacking in center field depth. Outfielder Drew Waters, who opened the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to an oblique strain, seemed to be nearing a return, but recently suffered a setback and has yet to head out for a rehab assignment, per Rogers. That likely leaves Jackie Bradley Jr. to draw starts in center in the event that Isbel misses time, though Bradley has been even worse on offense this year, clocking in at 70% worse than league average by measure of wRC+ in 51 plate appearances.
The 24-year-old Waters was a top prospect in the Braves organization for years after they selected him in the second round of the 2017 draft, but was traded to Kansas City midway through the 2022 season following the breakout of Braves center fielder Michael Harris II, which left Waters largely blocked in Atlanta. Waters ultimately got into 32 games for the Royals last year, and was impressive during that time, with a .240/.324/.479 slash line that was good for a 125 wRC+. Whenever Waters is ready to return, he seems likely to become a fixture of the club’s outfield mix, which currently includes Edward Olivares and Hunter Dozier in addition to Isbel and Bradley.
Also part of the outfield mix is MJ Melendez, the club’s second round pick in the 2017 draft and a former top prospect. Still just 24 years old, Melendez is primarily a catcher by trade, but has been blocked at the big league level by the presence of franchise catcher Salvador Perez. They split time behind the plate in 2022, with Melendez also seeing time in the outfield and both players often sliding into the DH slot to ensure both received sufficient playing time. That system worked fairly well last year, as Melendez ultimately got into 129 games for the Royals, slashing .217/.313/.393 for a roughly league average wRC+ of 99.
Melendez has caught just 68 2/3 innings so far this season, however, and manager Matt Quatraro has indicated that Melendez will be working exclusively in the outfield for the time being following the club’s decision to call up Freddy Fermin to act as the backup catcher. Per Quatraro, the decision was made to help Melendez focus on his offense, which has taken a turn for the worse so far in the 2023 campaign. In 118 plate appearances this season, Melendez has slashed just .200/.280/.371 with a well below average wRC+ of 76 and a concerning 33.9% strikeout rate. Melendez getting right at the plate would provide a huge boost to the Royals going forward, as the club ranks bottom five in the majors in terms of runs scored so far this season.
Matt Harvey Announces Retirement
Former All-Star right-hander Matt Harvey took to instagram this morning to announce his retirement. “I have to say this is my time to say thank you, and goodbye.” Harvey writes, “To the fans, and most importantly the NY Mets fans: you made a dream come true for me. A dream I could have never thought to come true. Who would have thought a kid from Mystic, CT would be able to play in the greatest city in the world, his hometown. You are forever embedded in my heart.”
The seventh overall pick in the 2010 draft, Harvey was selected by the Mets and made his debut during the 2012 campaign. During that ten start cup of coffee in 2012, Harvey pitched to a sterling 2.73 ERA (140 ERA+) with a 3.30 FIP, but that was just a taste of what was to come, as the following season ended up being the best of Harvey’s career by a wide margin.
In 178 1/3 innings of work in 2013, Harvey posted a phenomenal 2.27 ERA (157 ERA+) with a league-leading 2.01 FIP. He struck out 27.7% of batters he faced that season while walking just 4.5%. That performance not only earned him the lone All-Star appearance of his career, but a top four finish in Cy Young Award voting. Unfortunately, Harvey’s phenomenal year was cut short when he required Tommy John surgery, missing the end of the 2013 campaign and the entirety of 2014 while rehabbing.
He returned to the mound in 2015 with another strong season, posting a 2.71 ERA and 3.05 FIP over 189 1/3 innings of work in the regular season. Harvey went on to pitch for the Mets during the postseason, posting a 3.04 ERA in 26 2/3 innings of work as the Mets advanced past the Dodgers and the Cubs to face the Royals in the World Series.
Harvey’s injury woes would return in 2016, however, as Harvey struggled to an uncharacteristic 4.86 ERA in 92 2/3 innings of work before being shut down for the season in July to undergo surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Following the procedure, Harvey was never quite the same pitcher, as he struggled both in terms of results and to stay on the field. He posted a 6.15 ERA in 446 2/3 innings of work following his 2016 surgery.
Designated for assignment by the Mets early in the 2018 season, he would go on to pitch for the Reds, Angels, Royals, and Orioles before serving a 60-game suspension for “participating in the distribution of a prohibited Drug of Abuse in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.” The suspension came after Harvey testified in the trial of former communications director of the Angels Eric Kay, who was convicted of distributing fentanyl that resulted in the death of former pitcher Tyler Skaggs. During the trial, Harvey testified that he had provided Skaggs with Percocet pills.
Following his suspension, Harvey returned to the mound in the minor leagues, posting a 3.71 ERA in 70 1/3 innings. Harvey then pitched for Team Italy during the World Baseball Classic this spring, where he posted a 1.29 ERA in seven innings of work over two starts, leaving his baseball career on a high note.
All in all, Harvey ends his career with a 4.42 ERA in 966 1/3 innings with 50 wins and 867 strikeouts. MLBTR wishes Harvey the best as he transitions in whatever comes next following his playing career.
Royals Select Austin Cox
The Royals announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of left-hander Austin Cox from Triple-A Omaha. Righty Jose Cuas was optioned to Omaha to open a spot on the active roster, and southpaw Kris Bubic was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to clear space on the 40-man roster.
Cox, 26, was Kansas City’s fifth-round pick out of Mercer University back in 2018. He’s opened the season with 20 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball but a 22-to-11 K/BB ratio in Omaha. Cox is currently sporting a career-best 53.5% ground-ball rate in this year’s small sample of innings — a stark increase from the 37.5% mark he posted in 147 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball in 2022. Last season, Cox worked to a 4.21 ERA in Omaha, fanning just 16.2% of opponents but posting a strong 7.7% walk rate.
During the Royals’ most recent rebuilding effort, they spent a couple years putting an emphasis on college pitchers early in the draft, and Cox is a product of that strategy. It hasn’t panned out yet for Kansas City, however, as they’ve yet to produce a reliable big league starter from the experiment. Brady Singer certainly looked to be that during a breakout 2022 season, but he’s been torched for 28 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings this season. Other notable college draftees include Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Asa Lacy, Alec Marsh, Grant Gambrell and Jonathan Bowlan, among others, but the development on that group simply hasn’t gone as hoped, whether due to injury or poor performance.
The Royals didn’t announce Cox as a starter for any of their upcoming games, so he could well head to the bullpen for his initial MLB assignment. That said, Kansas City starting pitchers have combined for a ghastly 5.80 ERA on the season, so there ought to be ample opportunity for Cox to eventually break into the group. Brad Keller and the injured Bubic — who’ll miss the rest of the season following Tommy John surgery — are the only Royals starters with ERAs under 6.00. Zack Greinke (6.10), Jordan Lyles (6.11), Singer (8.49) and Ryan Yarbrough (7.40) have all struggled enormously to begin the year.
Royals To Promote Maikel Garcia, Place Nicky Lopez On Injured List
2:10pm: The Royals have now announced the Garcia and Lopez moves. Additionally, Franmil Reyes was optioned to Omaha while Freddy Fermin was recalled. Once a middle-of-the-order threat, Reyes has fallen on hard times in recent years. He’s slashing just .186/.231/.288 here in 2023.
11:14am: The Royals are set to recall infield prospect Maikel Garcia, one of the top minor leaguers in their system, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). He’ll take the roster spot of fellow infielder Nicky Lopez, who’s headed to the injured list due to appendicitis. That’s likely just a portion of a larger slate of roster moves for the Royals today, she adds.
Garcia made his big league debut as a 22-year-old last season but appeared in just nine games, batting .318/.348/.364 in a tiny sample of 23 plate appearances. He’s had a slow start to the season in Triple-A Omaha, where he’s turned in a .242/.348/.347 slash with a homer, seven doubles, four steals, a 14.3% walk rate and a 19.6% strikeout rate.
Widely regarded among the Royals’ top six prospects, Garcia lands third in their system at MLB.com, sixth at Baseball America and fifth on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic. He’s regarded as an above-average defender at shortstop with good bat-to-ball skills and solid plate discipline. Law opines that “if Garcia had even average power, he’d be a top-100 prospect” thanks to the strength of his other tools and his ability to handle multiple spots around the infield.
While Garcia has had a slow start in Omaha this year, he posted a more impressive .274/.341/.463 slash there in 186 plate appearances last year. He spent the rest of the season with Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and between the two levels he’s turned in a .285/.359/.427 with 11 homers, 34 doubles, a triple and a hearty 39 steals (in 47 tries).
Even absent an IL trip from Lopez, it’s not a surprise to see the Royals shuffling their infield mix. None of second baseman Michael Massey (.167/.173/.179, 81 plate appearances), third baseman Hunter Dozier (.161/.212/.226, 66 plate appearances) or shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.222/.266/.393, 124 plate appearances) has performed well at the plate so far in 2023. Garcia provides an option at any of those spots if the Royals want to make an early change. (Presumably, Witt has the longest leash given the high regard in which he’s held and a generally strong debut campaign in 2022.)
Like Massey, Dozier and Witt, the 28-year-old Lopez has also gotten out to a sluggish start in 2023. Through his first 67 plate appearances, the slick-fielding Lopez carries just a .200/.323/.291 batting line. The entire Kansas City offense has been anemic in 2023, with first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, outfielder Edward Olivares and catcher Salvador Perez as the only regulars turning in even average offensive output on the year. (First baseman Nick Pratto and utilityman Matt Duffy have hit well, too, albeit in much smaller samples. Given the struggles up and down the lineup, it stands to reason that if Garcia is able to produce at the plate, the Royals will find a way to work him into the mix moving forward.
Injury Notes: Skubal, Hendricks, Suarez, Lynch
The Tigers have been without left-hander Tarik Skubal since he underwent surgery to repair a flexor tear in his forearm last August. Detroit hasn’t provided a specific recovery timeline for the 26-year-old hurler, though he’s out until at least late May after starting the year on the 60-day injured list. Skubal is soon to hit a notable marker in his rehab process, as he’s in line to throw his first post-surgery bullpen session this week (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press).
Skubal will certainly need multiple ‘pen sessions and likely some live batting practice work before he’s ready to step into game action. Petzold notes the club is still without a firm timetable on when he might embark on a minor league rehab stint. That he’s throwing is obviously a plus and provides some hope he could return when or not long after he’s first eligible. Skubal developed into perhaps Detroit’s best pitcher before the injury, working to a 3.52 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout percentage through 21 starts last year.
Some updates on other injured pitchers around the league:
- Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa on Thursday, tweets Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. The right-hander is still working back from a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder suffered last August. He’s been throwing for the better part of six weeks but the club has understandably taken a cautious approach to building him up. Hendricks will require multiple rehab starts, with Levine suggesting the hope is he can return to the Wrigley Field mound in the middle of May. The 33-year-old worked to a career-worst 4.80 ERA over 84 1/3 innings last season. He’s headed into the final guaranteed year of his contract, with the Cubs deciding on a net $14.5MM decision for 2024 ($16MM option, $1.5MM buyout) at year’s end.
- The Phillies are also sending one of their starters on a rehab stint this week. Left-hander Ranger Suárez will pitch two innings with Double-A Reading on Thursday, relays Matt Gelb of the Athletic. According to Gelb, he’s expected to make three or four minor league appearances before making his MLB season debut in the middle of May. The southpaw was slowed by a bout of forearm inflammation in Spring Training, part of a tough exhibition season from a health perspective for Philadelphia. He threw a personal-high 155 1/3 innings with a 3.65 ERA and an excellent 55.4% ground-ball percentage in 29 starts last year.
- Royals left-hander Daniel Lynch threw a bullpen session this afternoon, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. He’s expected to log three innings in an extended Spring Training game on Thursday before beginning a rehab stint. That could position Lynch for his season debut in mid-May after a strain in his throwing shoulder shut him down at the end of Spring Training. One of the expected key starters for K.C. coming out of their rebuild, Lynch has had up-and-down results in his first two big league campaigns. He allowed a 5.13 ERA across 131 2/3 innings last season. With Kris Bubic lost for the season and Brady Singer struggling in the early going, a step forward from the 26-year-old Lynch takes on all the more importance for the Royals in the long term.
Kris Bubic To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Royals left-hander Kris Bubic will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. That will put him out of action for the remainder of 2023 and a portion of the 2024 season as well. The typical recovery timeline for Tommy John surgery is roughly 14-18 months. Bubic was placed on the 15-day injured list last week but the club will inevitably move him to the 60-day once they need a roster spot.
It’s a very unfortunate setback for Bubic, 25, who was showing some positive signs here in 2023. Coming into this year, he had a 4.89 ERA through 309 innings, a somewhat disappointing mark for a guy who was selected 40th overall in 2018 and had been a touted prospect in the years after that. But through his first three starts this year, he had a 3.94 ERA and possibly was even better than that number would indicate. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced and walked just 2.9%, big improvements over his 20% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate coming into the year. He also saw his ground ball rate jump to 52.1%, which was just 44.3% in prior seasons.
This is just three starts and small sample caveats certainly apply, but it’s also worth pointing out that Bubic had added a slider to his repertoire this year. Both Eno Sarris of The Athletic and Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs wrote pieces last week that highlighted Bubic’s improved arsenal in the early parts of the year, suggesting that his better results might have been for real and perhaps could have gotten better going forward. Though his 2023 ERA was about a full run better than his career mark, he had an even shinier 2.71 FIP and 3.45 SIERA. Again, it’s just three starts, but it was backed up by actual changes to his arsenal and might not have been just noise. Bubic and the Royals will now have to wait over a year to test those changes over a larger sample.
It’s obviously a blow for Bubic personally but also for the Royals, who have made some decisions that put their fortunes in the hands of young starters. They have used many of their early draft picks in recent years on pitchers, with not a lot of success. Between 2015 and 2018, Bubic, Brady Singer, Josh Staumont, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Jonathan Bowlan were all selected in the first 65 picks of their respective drafts. Up until last year, none of that group had found much major league success. Singer finally bucked the trend in 2022 by posting a 3.23 ERA in 153 1/3 innings and it seemed there was a chance that Bubic was following him. But now the latter is out for the remainder of the year and the former is struggling to a 8.14 ERA through his first four starts.
This loss will only compound the various struggles that the Royals are facing right now, as they have limped out to a 4-15 start, with their .211 winning percentage below all MLB teams except for the Athletics. Without Bubic, the Royals will proceed with four regular starters in Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brad Keller and Singer. Tonight, Taylor Clarke is serving as an opener in front of Ryan Yarbrough, who figures to get the bulk of the innings. Lynch is on the IL with a shoulder strain but could factor in whenever he’s healthy.
Bubic qualified for arbitration this past offseason as a Super Two player, meaning this is his first of four arb seasons. He and the club agreed to a $2.2MM salary for this year. Even though he’s going to miss the vast majority of the season, he’ll be in line for a similar salary next year, since the arb system is designed so that salaries almost never go down. He can then go through the arbitration system twice more after that before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.
Lack Of Offense Puts Royals In An Early-Season Hole
The Royals entered 2023 in a tricky spot. They’ve already rebuilt but haven’t progressed to the point where the organization and its fanbase had surely envisioned. While Kansas City went into last year as a dark horse pick to hang in the Wild Card mix, they stumbled to a 65-97 record that led to changes at the top of baseball operations and in the manager’s office.
Kansas City had a relatively quiet offseason. They added Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman while retaining Zack Greinke, looking for veteran stability on a pitching staff that hasn’t gotten expected contributions from a handful of highly-regarded young arms. The offseason attention on the pitching staff apparently left little room in the budget to attack an offense that ranked 24th in the majors in run scoring.
Franmil Reyes, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Matt Duffy — each of whom broke camp after signing minor league contracts — are the only new faces in the Royals’ position player group. (K.C. also shipped out center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the Twins.) While it’s still very early, the Royals are feeling the effects of that lack of offseason attention to the lineup.
Entering play Tuesday, the Royals sit 28th in the majors in runs scored (54). They’re dead last in all three triple slash stats with a .202/.264/.326 team batting line. Only the Giants have a higher strikeout rate than Kansas City’s 26.5% clip and they’re 25th in walk percentage. With that kind of offense, it’s not a surprise the Royals have been outscored by 32 runs and limped to a 4-13 start.
As one would expect given the extent of their struggles, the Royals aren’t getting much production virtually anywhere in the lineup. Duffy has been solid in a limited role. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino has been excellent and is somewhat quietly making a case for himself as one of the sport’s best young hitters. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has been adequate. Beyond that trio, the offense has been almost completely unproductive.
Ten of the 13 Kansas City hitters with 20+ plate appearances are off to below-average starts. The second base/third base duo of Michael Massey and Hunter Dozier hasn’t hit. Things have arguably been even more worrisome on the grass. Royals’ outfielders are hitting .178/.241/.256 over 195 combined trips to the dish. That’s the worst output in the league by a wide margin; the second-worst start by an outfield, by measure of wRC+, is the .207/.263/.337 production from the Diamondbacks’ group.
Outfield was a major question mark for K.C. heading into the year. It’s a group comprised mainly of players in their mid-20s who haven’t yet established themselves at the MLB level. Catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez has power but questions about his swing-and-miss and his best defensive fit. Edward Olivares has paired interesting physical tools with an aggressive approach resulting in a meager .302 career on-base percentage. It’s a similar story with Kyle Isbel, who has been productive in the upper minors but not yet translated that against big league pitching. Nate Eaton had a big 2022 season in Triple-A; he’s already 26 and was never an especially highly-regarded prospect though.
Drew Waters, who has been on the shelf all season with a left oblique strain, has power and an excellent defensive profile but concerns about his strikeout totals. Bradley and Reyes have been very good MLB players in the past but fallen on hard times offensively in the last couple seasons.
It’s too early in the season to write off any specific player, particularly the younger options who have gotten scattershot playing time over the past couple years. As a collective, however, it’s an unencouraging start. Even if someone like Melendez or Olivares takes a step forward, the overall outfield looks like a below-average group. Perhaps 2022 first-round pick Gavin Cross can solidify a spot in the long run, but the Virginia Tech product is still in High-A and looks unlikely to be an MLB factor this year.
The Royals’ offense assuredly won’t be this bad all season. Salvador Perez is going to snap out of an early-season rut. Witt should post a better line than his current .262/.314/.415 mark. There’s essentially nowhere for the outfield to go but up. Yet even with some amount of forthcoming positive regression, it’s hard to see the Royals climbing back towards competitiveness. They entered the season as a projected bottom five to ten team at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. They’ve promptly dug themselves a nine-game hole just to get back to .500. Despite playing in one of the game’s weaker divisions, the Royals are trending towards deadline sellers.
We’re not yet at that point. General manager J.J. Picollo and his front office are unlikely to consider any serious roster subtractions before late June at the earliest. Barring a dramatic reversal of fortunes in the next two months, though, there’s likely to be a fair amount of deadline chatter about possible trade candidates on the K.C. roster. Closer Scott Barlow is off to a rough start but would draw plenty of interest if he can rediscover his 2021-22 form, particularly with an extra season of arbitration control. The Chapman signing has looked good in the first couple weeks, as the fireballing lefty has punched out 12 of 22 opposing hitters. He’s an obvious midseason trade candidate as a one-year free agent pickup. Starter Brad Keller and lefty reliever Amir Garrett are impending free agents off to decent starts.
The coming months will determine how many of those players change uniforms midseason. The club’s lack of hitting through the year’s first three weeks has put them behind the eight ball if they’re to avoid trading veterans who are getting closer to the open market.
Royals Place Kris Bubic On 15-Day Injured List
The Royals placed left-hander Kris Bubic on the 15-day injured list due to a flexor strain in his left forearm. Left-hander Josh Taylor was called up to take Bubic’s spot on the active roster.
Bubic pitched well in his first two starts of the season, but was touched up for five runs on 10 hits and a walk over five innings in yesterday’s outing against the Braves. Bubic felt some forearm soreness in the aftermath and thought it might have been due to the game’s cooler temperatures, but unfortunately he’ll now face a larger problem in the form of a flexor strain. It isn’t yet known what kind of timeline Bubic is facing for a recovery, as Royals manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star) that Bubic was “getting further diagnostics” on the injury.
Even if Bubic is able to avoid serious injury, the IL stint is still an unwelcome setback for a pitcher hoping to break out in his fourth Major League season. Bubic was the 40th overall pick of the 2018 draft, and one of the young arms Kansas City was counting on as the linchpins of their rebuilding period. Of that group, however, only Brady Singer has really stepped up at the big league level — Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, and Bubic have all struggled to some degree, though Bubic has at least done enough to retain his spot in the K.C. rotation.
Bubic had a 4.89 ERA over 309 innings with the Royals from 2020-22, posting below-average walk and strikeout rates while struggling to limit hard contact. In the small sample size of his 2023 efforts, Bubic’s 23.5% strikeout rate is a bit above average, while his control (2.9% walk rate) has been excellent.
Taylor will give the Royals more depth in the bullpen, which might be helpful in filling Bubic’s rotation spot since Quatraro suggested that an opener is a possibility. However, due to an upcoming off-day, the Royals won’t need a fifth starter until April 25, giving the team some time to plan their next step. If a traditional starter is used, Kowar, Max Castillo, or Jonathan Heasley might be options at Triple-A.