NL Notes: Cease, Braves, Nationals, Hampson, D’Backs
The Braves are known to have trade interest in Dylan Cease, and given the team’s penchant for signing players to long-term extensions, locking up a Georgia native like Cease would seem like a logical next step if a deal can be worked out to obtain the righty from the White Sox. However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal points out a possible obstacle — Cease is represented by Scott Boras, who traditionally advises his clients to test free agency rather than sign long-term extensions.
Enough high-profile Boras clients have signed extensions that this isn’t at all a hard-and-fast rule, since as Rosenthal notes, Boras will ultimately operate according to his client’s demands. But it is perhaps noteworthy for this particular scenario, since Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos rarely acquires Boras Corporations clients, even though both Anthopoulos and Boras have denied any lack of communication or lack of connection between the two sides. Trading for and extending Cease would be a way of putting this narrative to bed, though it remains to be seen if Atlanta will instead opt for another frontline pitcher besides Cease as the Braves continue to look for rotation help.
More from the National League…
- Not much has changed in the Lerner family’s attempts to sell the Nationals, as the search is now approaching two full years since news first broke of the Lerners’ explorations about a sale. The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes provides something of an update on the situation, though Ted Leonsis remains the top suitor but still seems unwilling to meet the Lerners’ desired price of around $2.4 billion. Leonsis’ last offer topped the $2 billion mark, but the Lerners don’t appear in any hurry to make a sale unless Leonsis or another bidder ups the ante. The seemingly neverending dispute with the Orioles about MASN broadcasting revenues also still remains a sticking point in any ownership discussions. In terms of how this translates to the on-field product, Janes notes that the Nationals’ low payroll has more to do with the team’s rebuild strategy than it does a concerted effort to cut costs in advance of a potential sale.
- The Diamondbacks had some interest in Garrett Hampson before the utilityman signed with the Royals earlier this week, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The versatile Hampton would’ve been a backup at several positions off the bench, and in particularly been a right-handed hitting complement to Alek Thomas or Geraldo Perdomo at center field or shortstop, respectively. Right-handed hitting is a priority for the D’Backs in general, and Piecoro suggests that J.D. Martinez might be a candidate for a return to Arizona, based off GM Mike Hazen’s recent comments about how the Diamondbacks could be open to a DH-centric player who swings from the right side. Arizona has already landed one notable right-handed bat this offseason in acquiring Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners.
- Sticking with the National League champs, the Diamondbacks named Shaun Larkin as their new director of player development earlier this week. Larkin has spent the last three seasons as the Dodgers‘ field coordinator as part of an eight-year tenure in L.A., and he previously had a long history as a minor league player, coach, and manager in Cleveland’s farm system. Larkin’s hiring is the latest move in a D’Backs offseason that has seen quite a bit of turnover in the front office and coaching ranks, though as Hazen told Piecoro, “we 100 percent expected it. This is what happens when you have a successful season….Bringing some outside perspectives into the organization in terms of what’s going on in scouting and player development around the game, I think is important.”
Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Pursuit Of Shohei Ohtani
Rumors about the state of Shohei Ohtani‘s market in free agency have been decidedly and deliberately scarce. Ohtani is said to prefer things to be kept quiet and close to the vest, and teams involved in the bidding surely don’t want to jeopardize their chances by being too forthcoming in terms of leaking information to the media. ESPN’s Jeff Passan pulls back the curtain a bit this morning, however, writing that at least three teams — the Rangers, Mets and Red Sox — have turned their attention to other players at this stage of the process. While each of the three were among Ohtani’s original group of suitors, it seems the trio has become pessimistic about their chances of closing a deal.
The Rangers’ ostensible exit from the Ohtani bidding dovetails with recent comments from general manager Chris Young, who just yesterday told reporters that he does not anticipate spending to the same extent he did in the past two offseasons. Texas dropped more than $500MM in the 2021-22 offseason when signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. The Rangers spent more than $200MM last winter when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Whether the expectation for lesser spending is because they feel they’re out of the Ohtani bidding or vice versa, the end result seems to be an expectation and concession that the two-time AL MVP and longtime Rangers division rival will sign elsewhere.
As for the Mets, there was never any question whether they have the funds to pay Ohtani a contract that’s widely expected to eclipse $500MM by a comfortable margin. Owner Steve Cohen is the sport’s wealthiest and most aggressive owner. But there have long been questions about Ohtani’s desire to play in the New York spotlight and deal with the inherent media frenzy associated with that market. It should come as no surprise that the Mets (and likely the Yankees) nevertheless tried, but Passan’s report suggests those efforts have come up short. To that end, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation help for the 2024 season, which doesn’t apply to Ohtani while he mends from elbow surgery. (Though he’d clearly be a factor in their 2025 rotation and beyond.) Prior reports have suggested that Boston’s focus, thus far, has been more on the trade market than on free agency. That doesn’t definitively mean that the Sox aren’t willing to spend lavishly on free agents this winter, but if their pursuit of immediate rotation help eventually leads them to free agency, it’d make for a particularly expensive offseason to pursue both Ohtani and one of the remaining top-end starters (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery).
While those three clubs are out of the mix, Ohtani’s market does still include the likes of the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels, per Passan. That’s not intended to be a comprehensive list of the remaining suitors, however. It stands to reason that other clubs could yet be in play. The Giants have long been linked to Ohtani, as have the Mariners — although Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported a couple weeks ago suggested that the Mariners were unlikely to ultimately land him.
Dodgers Have Interest In Lucas Giolito
The Dodgers are in need of multiple starting pitchers. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that L.A. has shown interest in free agent right-hander Lucas Giolito as part of that search.
It’s the first known link for Giolito, who is one of the more difficult evaluations in the class. It wasn’t that long ago that the longtime White Sox hurler looked on his way to a nine-figure deal. Giolito sported a 3.79 ERA with a strong 25.8% strikeout rate over 21 starts at the time of the trade deadline. He had turned 29 in July, making him one of the younger starters in the class. A midseason trade to the Angels rendered him ineligible for the qualifying offer, removing draft pick compensation as a factor.
His market has since been muddled by a dismal final couple months. Giolito was rocked for a 6.89 ERA in six starts as an Angel. The Halos plummeted from playoff contention and put him on waivers. The Guardians claimed him and gave him the ball six more times to close the year. Giolito had an even tougher run in Cleveland, posting a 7.04 ERA. In his final 12 appearances of the season, he was tagged for a 6.96 ERA and surrendered a staggering 21 home runs in 63 1/3 innings (just under three homers per nine).
Giolito concluded the year with a 4.88 ERA overall. That marked his second straight season allowing nearly five earned runs per nine innings. It’s a notable drop from the mid-3.00s marks he posted each year between 2019-21, although that’s mostly a reflection of the season’s last two months.
To his credit, the former All-Star took all 33 turns through the rotation. It marked his third straight season surpassing 30 starts and continued an exceptional run of durability over the last six years. Giolito is tied for fifth in starts and ranks eighth in innings pitched since the 2018 season. He isn’t missing bats as he had at his 2019-20 peak, but he has fanned more than a quarter of opponents over the last two years.
Giolito certainly won’t continue allowing home runs at the clip he had in Anaheim and Cleveland. Teams can anticipate some amount of positive regression in that regard, but it’s still hard to draw up a much worse finish to a pitcher’s platform year short of injury.
That leaves him in an interesting spot as a free agent. If he simply wanted to maximize his earning potential, he could still look for three or four years. Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker secured four years with an average salary in the $17-18MM range last winter despite some inconsistency in their career track records. Yet Giolito is also young enough to potentially prioritize a chance to get back to free agency within a season or two. MLBTR predicted he’d go the latter route, estimating a two-year, $44MM contract that allows him to opt out after the first season.
A shorter-term pact of that nature could be particularly appealing to the Dodgers. They have shied away from long-term investments in free agent starters. A pitcher-friendly home park could mitigate some of the homer concerns, while Giolito’s track record of absorbing innings would be welcome for a young staff. It’d be similarly easy to see the appeal from the player’s perspective. The Dodgers have a strong reputation for developing pitching. That Giolito is an L.A. native who attended Harvard-Westlake is an added bonus.
While there’s a sensible fit, Giolito may need to wait until some of the top starters come off the board. Harris notes that the Dodgers are essentially in a holding pattern as they await clarity on their chances of adding Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Los Angeles has an estimated $70MM available before even reaching the first luxury tax threshold, so they’ll surely add multiple players, but they’ll presumably have various offseason plans contingent on whether they land either of their top two targets.
MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Sonny Gray signing with the Cardinals (1:40)
- Kenta Maeda signing with the Tigers (11:45)
- Dodgers, Braves, Orioles and Reds missed on Aaron Nola (14:30)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
- The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
- Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
- What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason – listen here
- Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
- Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
Dodgers Showing Interest In Seth Lugo
The Dodgers are among numerous teams that have shown interest in free agent hurler Seth Lugo, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (on X). Alexander indicates that upwards of two-thirds of the league has checked in with Lugo’s camp, aligning with a recent report from FanSided’s Robert Murray that more than half the teams were involved.
Los Angeles is a suitable fit for every free agent starter. The Dodgers have less certainty in their rotation than they’ve had at any point in the past few seasons. Of the four pitchers who topped 100 innings, only Bobby Miller is going to open next year in the rotation. Julio Urías is unlikely to return after being arrested on domestic violence allegations. Tony Gonsolin will probably miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will be out of action into the 2024 campaign due to a postseason shoulder procedure.
Walker Buehler returns from his second Tommy John surgery to join Miller in the starting five. Los Angeles could bring in as many as three additional starters. Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone struggled to varying degrees. Dustin May won’t be ready for the start of the season as he works back from July flexor surgery. Ryan Pepiot only managed 42 MLB innings in a swing capacity this year thanks to an oblique strain sustained at the tail end of Spring Training. Ryan Yarbrough worked mostly in long relief upon being acquired from the Royals in a midseason trade.
There’s a clear need for both high-end talent and bulk innings. Lugo could provide some combination of the two. The Padres gave the right-hander his first extended rotation opportunity in six years. He responded with a 3.57 ERA across 26 starts. Lugo missed a month in the first half with a calf strain but otherwise stayed healthy and logged a personal-high 146 1/3 innings. He supported the solid run prevention with an above-average 23.2% strikeout percentage while only walking 6% of opponents.
That made it an easy call for Lugo to decline a $7.5MM player option. He’ll surely beat that salary and figures to secure a multi-year contract. Lugo turned 34 a couple weeks ago, so it won’t be a particularly long-term commitment. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported last week that Lugo was seeking three years.
MLBTR predicted Lugo to receive a three-year term at $14MM annually, ranking him 19th among free agents in expected earning power. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, a three-year term beginning in a starting pitcher’s age-34 campaign is rare but not unprecedented. There has been one such deal in each of the past two offseasons. Chris Bassitt secured a $63MM guarantee from the Blue Jays last winter; Sonny Gray landed $75MM from the Cardinals on Monday. Lugo doesn’t have the multi-year track record of starting as those pitchers do, but that could be reflected in a lesser annual salary.
The Dodgers have shied away from long-term pitching investments under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. L.A. signed Kenta Maeda to an eight-year pact when he came over from Japan, but that was an incentive-laden deal with a modest $25MM guarantee. Otherwise, they haven’t gone past three years for a free agent starting pitcher — doing so for Rich Hill ($48MM), Kershaw ($93MM) and Trevor Bauer ($102MM).
That could change this offseason, given both the pitcher-heavy nature of the free agent class and the roster’s rotation issues. The Dodgers should have plenty of payroll room to add multiple starters on the open market. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 luxury tax commitments in the $168MM range, around $69MM below next year’s base threshold.
Dodgers To Hire Nelson Cruz As Advisor
The Dodgers are hiring Nelson Cruz as an advisor, per a report from Tenchy Rodriguez of Z101. This was confirmed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, who adds that Cruz will be working for the organization in Latin America.
Cruz, 43, recently retired after spending almost two decades as one of the most potent sluggers in the league. From his debut in 2005 to his final season in 2023, he hit 464 home runs while playing for the Brewers, Rangers, Orioles, Mariners, Twins, Rays, Nationals and Padres. In addition to his work with MLB club, Cruz was also active in terms of international competition. He represented the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic in 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2023, also serving as the club’s general manager for the most recent of those tournaments. He’s also played winter ball in the Dominican Republic on numerous occasions.
It’s unclear exactly what his responsibilities will be, but Cruz has been around the game for a long time. By suiting up for so many different teams, both inside and outside MLB, he has surely made contact with hundreds of different players, coaches, scouts and other baseball personnel. The Dodgers will give him a chance to start the next phase of his career just a few weeks after retiring.
Dodgers To Re-Sign Jason Heyward
11:14am: It’s a one-year, $9MM deal for Heyward, McDaniel now adds. Terms have been agreed upon, but the arrangement is still pending the completion of a physical.
11:03am: The Dodgers are nearing a deal to re-sign free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. It’ll be a one-year for the Excel Sports client if and when it’s finalized.
After a largely underwhelming seven-year run with the Cubs, Heyward signed with the Dodgers and had a bounceback season at the plate, turning in a strong .269/.340/.473 batting line with 15 home runs and 23 doubles in 377 trips to the plate. Last years’ 17% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2018, while his 9% walk rate was his best mark since the shortened 2020 campaign. Some of those improvements stemmed from being shielded almost entirely from left-handed pitching — just 7.4% of his plate appearances came against lefties — but Heyward also showed dramatic improvement against right-handed pitching as well.
Beyond his strong year at the plate, Heyward continued to rate as an above-average defender in the outfield. Los Angeles gave him the vast majority of his work in right field, but Heyward also logged 120 innings in center field and the first 25 innings of his career in left field. On the whole, Defensive Runs Saved (+3) and Outs Above Average (+6) felt he was a strong defensive presence in his 769 frames of work.
That steady glovework from Heyward also freed the Dodgers to get creative with perennial MVP candidate Mookie Betts, who not only logged time at second base but also spent considerable time at the shortstop position for the first time in his career. Lack of experience notwithstanding, Betts proved an apt defender at both positions, giving manager Dave Roberts significant flexibility in filling out the lineup card without needing to sacrifice substantially on the defensive side of things.
Heyward’s return could once again free Betts to log significant time in the infield — particularly against right-handed pitching. Against southpaws, Betts can return to his more customary right field. Other names in L.A.’s outfield mix include center fielder James Outman, utilityman/left fielder Chris Taylor and top prospect Andy Pages, who might’ve debuted in 2023 had shoulder surgery not cut his season short. Pages is expected to be ready for spring training, the Dodgers announced at the time of his June surgery, but Heyward’s return takes some pressure off him as he ramps back up from that procedure. And, if Pages ultimately pushes his way onto the big league roster, his right-handed bat will give Roberts a natural complement to lefties like Heyward and Outman.
It’s possible the Dodgers will bring in additional outfield help — they’ve been tied to Teoscar Hernandez, most notably — but starting pitching has been the primary focus for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and the rest of the front office thus far. In addition to their widely expected pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers have been connected to free agents like Blake Snell and the now off-the-market Aaron Nola, in addition to trade candidate Dylan Cease.
From a payroll perspective, Heyward’s straight $9MM deal brings the Dodgers up to about $150MM in projected spending, per Roster Resource. They’re well shy of the $237MM luxury tax threshold at this point, sitting between $167-168MM (using MLBTR’s projected 2024 arbitration salaries). That could leave them with as much around $70MM before they reach luxury tax status — though paying the CBT has not historically been a concern for the deep-pocketed Dodgers.
With Heyward on a one-year commitment and other veterans such as Blake Treinen, Miguel Rojas and Austin Barnes potentially coming off the books at the end of the 2024 season, the Dodgers have under $100MM of luxury-tax obligations on the books beyond the 2024 campaign. Bringing back Heyward on this contract maintains much of that enormous long-term flexibility in an offseason where the market features several candidates for weighty long-term deals (Ohtani, Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among them).
Dodgers, Cubs, Angels Among Clubs Interested In Robert Stephenson
Free agent right-hander Robert Stephenson is proving to be quite popular this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. He is drawing interest from the Dodgers, Cubs and Angels, but other unnamed clubs as well.
Stephenson, 31 in February, was one of the lesser known names on MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents published earlier this month, where Stephenson was pegged for a four-year, $36MM deal. The righty had struggled with injuries and underperformance at various times in his career but had a well-timed breakout just before he hit the open market.
He was traded from the Pirates to the Rays in early June and then started throwing a cutter instead of a slider, with phenomenal results. He went on to make 42 appearances after heading to Tampa, posting an earned run average of just 2.35 in 38 1/3 innings. He struck out an incredible 42.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.7%. Among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in that time, that strikeout rate was fourth in the majors, trailing only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks. Stephenson had a lower walk rate than all three of those guys, making his 37.1% K-BB% ratio tops in the majors in that time frame.
That’s a fairly small sample of work, but Stephenson once had a strong prospect pedigree. He was a first-round pick of the Reds back in 2011 and was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight years from 2013 to 2016, getting as high as #19 in 2014. He reached the majors as a starter and posted fairly lackluster results, with an ERA of 5.47 at the end of 2018, having thrown 133 1/3 major league innings in that time.
A move to the bullpen seemed to help, as he made 57 appearances in 2019 with an ERA of 3.76. But in 2020, he missed roughly a month due to a mid-back strain and allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 innings he was able to pitch in the shortened season. He was traded to the Rockies prior to 2021 and managed to get back on track, despite making Coors Field his home, posting a 3.13 ERA in 49 appearances that year. But 2022 saw him struggle with a 6.04 ERA in 45 appearances for the Rockies before getting claimed off waivers by the Pirates in August.
The most recent season got off to a slow start, as he had some right arm discomfort in the spring and started the season on the injured list. He eventually made 18 appearances for the Pirates this year but showed some rust, walking 13.1% of opponents and allowing 5.14 earned runs per nine. But as mentioned, a midseason trade to the Rays preceded a tremendous step forward.
Now Stephenson seems positioned to cash in. Though his big breakout was just a few months of work, he was one of the best relievers in the league for that time. It didn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he had once been a highly-touted youngster and had a couple of seasons of decent relief work recently. Teams have made huge gambles on relievers based on small samples before, with Drew Pomeranz getting four years and $34MM, Robert Suarez five years and $46MM, while Rafael Montero got three years and $34.5MM. All three of those guys had fairly limited or inconsistent track records but some flashy underlying numbers that the signing club was betting on.
It would take a change in strategy for the Cubs to be seriously in on Stephenson. Since Jed Hoyer was promoted to president of baseball operations, they have stuck to one-year deals for relievers, signing guys like Mychal Givens, Michael Fulmer, David Robertson, Andrew Chafin, Brad Boxberger, Chris Martin, Ryan Tepera and others with mixed results. None of those guys got more than $5MM and getting Stephenson will surely take more than that on an annual basis and for multiple years. But the Cubs have been rebuilding for much of that time and may be willing to push a little farther after just missing the playoffs in 2023. The club’s relievers had a collective ERA of 3.85 in 2013, which placed them 13th in the league.
The Dodgers’ bullpen had a 3.42 ERA in 2023, which was third-best in the league, and most of their key relievers are still under club control for 2024. Adding another high-octane arm there would seemingly be more of a luxury buy than a necessity, especially when they have needs in the rotation and could potentially give a massive contract to Shohei Ohtani. But per Roster Resource, they are roughly $80MM below the competitive balance tax and well below previous franchise highs, so maybe they have enough powder dry to address everything on their to-do list and go after Stephenson.
The Angels have often struggled to put together a decent bullpen and that was again the case in 2023, with a collective ERA of 4.88 that was better than just five clubs. They tried to spend some money to address that issue a few years ago by signing Raisel Iglesias to a four-year deal but he was flipped to Atlanta after just a year and a half. The club has been struggling to get above .500 in recent years but has no plans of rebuilding this winter, even if Ohtani winds up going elsewhere.
Details On The Dodgers’ And Braves’ Pursuits Of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola‘s new deal with the Phillies is the winter’s biggest free agent headline to date, as Nola returned to Philadelphia for seven years and $172MM. Reports filtered in that the Braves also had significant interest in Nola, and that the right-hander turned down larger offers in order to remain with his longtime team, and the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber shed some light on those other suitors in a piece from earlier this week.
The Dodgers were another major bidder, Lauber writes, with the specific phrasing that Los Angeles “put a finger on the scale at $165MM.” It isn’t exactly clear from this wording whether or not the Dodgers perhaps just floated this figure or if they made a formal offer to Nola’s representatives, yet it is fair to assume the latter is true given the seemingly quick timeline of events, considering that the Phillies and Braves were both bidding hard and Nola wanted to decide sooner rather than later about his future.
As for other teams, Atlanta made a starting offer of $162MM over six years, and then made a final offer worth presumably more. Beyond the Braves and Dodgers, the Phillies thought more team were also involved in the Nola sweepstakes, “with at least one other club offering more” than Philadelphia’s $172MM.
Naturally it isn’t at all surprising that Nola drew such high-dollar interest, given his status as one of the top free agents available in this offseason’s market. MLBTR ranked Nola fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. He ended up getting more overall money than our projection, if less of an average annual value stretched out over a seventh year of a contract, yet the Phillies’ ability to just get close to comparable offers from other teams was enough to seal the deal. “Nola strongly preferred staying with the Phillies, and his agent Joe Longo let it be known that $172 million would get it done,” Lauber writes.
Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos typically likes to make most of his bigger moves earlier in the offseason, and that trend has continued. The bullpen has been a major early focus, as Reynaldo Lopez was just signed to a three-year deal worth at least $30MM in guaranteed money, and Atlanta retained Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before free agency officially opened. The Braves were also very aggressive in cutting down their list of arbitration-eligible players, with a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders that ultimately shaved a decent chunk of money off the payroll.
The exact size of that 2024 payroll and what Anthopoulos has to work with isn’t yet known, leading to quite a bit of speculation about what exactly the Braves are planning. Obviously landing Nola would have taken up a big portion (if not all) of whatever payroll space Atlanta has left, and the Braves are already on pace to top their team-record $203MM payroll from last year. The Braves are also set to surpass the luxury tax threshold for the second consecutive year, which adds another interesting wrinkle — signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like Nola would’ve cost the Braves two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus money as compensation.
Under Anthopoulos, the Braves have usually made measured strikes in the free agent market. Most of Anthopoulos’ biggest moves have been trades, with his free agent signings usually limited to veterans on one-year or two-year deals (if at a high average annual value). Marcell Ozuna‘s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 is far and away the biggest contract Anthopoulos has given to a free agent, and Nola’s contact would’ve drastically exceeded Ozuna’s number.
While the Dodgers are no stranger to big-money deals, it is worth noting that Nola at a $165MM price tag would’ve also represented the biggest free agent contract of Andrew Friedman’s tenure running the L.A. front office. Freddie Freeman‘s six-year, $162MM pact from the 2021-22 offseason is the current benchmark, and the fact that Los Angeles was willing to spend so much on Nola is an early sign of how aggressive the team plans to be this winter.
Signing the durable Nola would’ve been a huge help to a Dodgers rotation that is lacking in experience, as the team is expected to add two or three pitchers to the group via free agency and trades. This is alongside the Dodgers’ other big pursuit of the winter, as Los Angeles is seen as one of the favorites — if perhaps the favorite — to sign Shohei Ohtani to what will almost surely be the biggest guaranteed contract in baseball history. The Dodgers may be way under the luxury tax threshold for now, but with Ohtani’s situation, severe pitching needs, and some other roster holes to be addressed, L.A. doesn’t appear to have any reservations over surpassing the tax for the fourth straight year.
One team absent from Nola’s market was Boston, as the Red Sox “weren’t meaningfully involved in bidding,” according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. This tracks with reports from mid-November suggesting that while the Sox were interested in a top-tier starting pitching addition, Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were the team’s preferred options ahead of Nola and Blake Snell.
MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
- The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
- The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
- Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
- Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
- ..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
- Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
- Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
- Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here