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Make Or Break Year

Make Or Break Year: How Are They Doing?

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Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency.

We checked in on the players at the quarter pole of the campaign and let's do it again now that we're midway through the season (all links go to the MLBTR posts):

  • Scott Kazmir - Kazmir spent time on the DL, made one appearance for the Angels and posted a 17.02 ERA with more walks than strikeouts at Triple-A before getting released. The former first rounder is now a free agent.
  • Nate McLouth - McLouth's .225/.345/.330 line is better than it was last year and features a respectable on-base percentage, but his offensive production has fallen off considerably since 2007-09. He spent time on the DL this June.
  • Grady Sizemore - Sizemore missed time with a knee injury, but he still has nine homers and a .231/.295/.448 line. However, he has a career-high 29.5% strikeout rate and a career-low 6.1% walk rate.
  • Ryan Doumit - The switch-hitter has spent most of the season on the disabled list, though he has a .269/.333/.441 line when healthy. 
  • Jonathan Broxton - Broxton is on the disabled list with a bruised right elbow and he has had another setback, so there's no timetable for his return. If he doesn't pitch well later this season, he will be overshadowed by this offseason's strong crop of free agent relief pitchers.
  • Joel Zumaya - Zumaya had elbow surgery in March and it's not clear if he'll ever return to the Tigers.
  • Casey Blake - Blake has returned from surgery for an elbow infection and has a .243/.346/.386 line as a third baseman, first baseman and left fielder. The 37-year-old isn't in the Dodgers' everyday lineup anymore.
  • Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez has a .298/.346/.497 line with 15 homers and could be en route to his best season since 2008.
  • Edwin Jackson - Jackson, a free agent this winter, has a 4.30 ERA (3.31 xFIP) with 7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 106 2/3 innings for the White Sox.
  • Bobby Abreu - Abreu, 37, has a .277/.394/.363 line this year. A year after hitting his usual 20 homers, Abreu's power is diminishing, but his on-base skills still exist.
  • Carlos Beltran - Beltran has a .285/.377/.503 line with 13 homers. There seems to be a good chance that he'll finish the season with another team, as he would agree to waive his no-trade clause under the right circumstances.
  • Matt Capps - Capps has 15 saves, but his strikeout rate has fallen from 7.3 K/9 to 4.9 K/9 and his average fastball velocity has fallen from 94 mph to 92.8 mph.
  • Jeff Francis - The 30-year-old left-hander appears to be headed for the second 200 inning season of his career. Francis, who battled shoulder injuries in 2009-10, has a 4.60 ERA with 4.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.

Make Or Break Year: How Are They Doing?

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Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency. Now that we're at the quarter pole for the 2011 season, let's check in on the lucky 13 players (all links go to the MLBTR posts):

  • Scott Kazmir - Kazmir, now on the DL, has appeared in one game this year and he allowed five runs, five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings. I'll be surprised if he signs a guaranteed contract this winter.
  • Nate McLouth – McLouth was coming off a poor 2010 season, but the results are much better in 2011. He has a .262/.355/.379 line, though UZR/150 suggests his defense in center field has been poor since 2009.
  • Grady Sizemore – After missing most of 2010 with a knee surgery that required microfracture surgery, Sizemore returned with a vengeance, only to hit the disabled list with an injury to his other knee. In 18 games before he got hurt, Sizemore posted a .282/.333/.641 line with six homers.
  • Ryan Doumit - Though he has only stepped to the plate 82 times, Doumit has a healthy .278/.358/.458 batting line. The switch-hitter has been available in trades for a while and it wouldn't be surprising to see him dealt this summer.
  • Jonathan Broxton – Broxton is on the disabled list with a bruised right elbow and there's no timetable for his return. If he doesn't pitch well later this season, he will be overshadowed by this offseason's strong crop of free agent relief pitchers.
  • Joel Zumaya - Zumaya had elbow surgery a week ago today and is now resting and rehabbing. It's not clear that he'll return to the Tigers this year.
  • Casey Blake – Blake required surgery for an elbow infection and could return to the Dodgers soon. Before he got hurt, the 37-year-old had a .956 OPS in 66 plate appearances.
  • Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez is off to a so-so .287/.347/.368 start, but his power can sneak up on people, as it did last year when he hit 19 homers after July 5th.
  • Edwin Jackson - Still just 27, Jackson has a 4.53 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 55 2/3 innings. His name appears multiple times on the leaderboard for free agent starters.
  • Bobby Abreu - The 37-year-old doesn't have much power at this stage in his career (.327 slugging, .072 isolated power), but you won't find many hitters capable of a .377 OBP.
  • Carlos Beltran - Beltran has rebounded in a big way this year. The way he's hitting (.286/.381/.564, 8 homers) he'll be among the most appealing free agents available after the season. I suggested this spring that he and agent Scott Boras could ask for a multiyear deal and that seems even more likely now.
  • Matt Capps - Capps hasn't walked anyone in 18 1/3 innings and he has five saves and a 3.93 ERA. The 27-year-old's value doesn't appear to have changed much this year.
  • Jeff Francis - Though Francis is 0-5 with a 4.83 ERA, he has averaged 6.0 innings per start for the Royals and has a respectable 27K/10BB ratio. The left-hander seems healthy after consecutive seasons with shoulder issues.

Make Or Break Year: Jeff Francis

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Jeff Francis seemed headed for stardom when, at the age of 26, he won 17 games and pitched in the World Series. This offseason, in his first appearance on the free agent market, he signed with the Royals for $2MM plus incentives. It's a modest guarantee for a pitcher who still has promise entering 2011.

Francis

Teams aren't going to commit aggressively to pitchers who post 5.00 ERAs, especially if they aren't far removed from serious shoulder issues. Francis' ERA sat precisely at 5.00 after 104 1/3 innings of work last year, in his return to the majors after missing the 2009 campaign with shoulder surgery. The former 9th overall pick wasn't in position to command much as a free agent, even after a successful return to the major leagues.

But things could be different next offseason. Francis, who just turned 30 in January, is still relatively young. And if he puts together a full season, he'll have an easier time convincing teams that his shoulder is no longer a concern.

Though Francis' 2010 ERA and 4-6 record don't look good, his peripheral stats do. He posted a robust 47% ground ball rate last year, striking out nearly three times as many hitters as he walked. What's more, his FIP and xFIP suggest he was more deserving of an ERA under 4.00. And while the American League has the DH, it doesn't have Coors Field, the only home park Francis has known as a big leaguer.

There are no guarantees for Francis or for his new team. If he encounters more shoulder problems or struggles to surpass last year's innings total, the market for him won't be strong after the season. But a healthy year and a little more luck could position Francis for the big free agent contract he didn't sign this past offseason. 

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Make Or Break Year: Matt Capps

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The winter of 2011 was a good time to be a reliever in search of a new contract. Beginning with Joaquin Benoit's three-year deal with the Tigers, the offseason saw a total of 17 relievers sign multiyear contracts, according to MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker. Of those 17 deals, ten were worth eight figures.

756100703088_MLB_Mets_at_Nationals While this is great news for next winter's class of free agent relievers, it doesn't necessarily guarantee a massive payday. As our list of potential free agents shows, competition for late-inning relief roles next year should be fierce, with a number of intriguing arms poised to hit the market. Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Rafael Soriano, and Jose Valverde are just a few of the pitchers who could be available after 2011.

Matt Capps figures to be among that group of free agent relievers after the season, and his will be one of the more interesting cases to monitor. The right-hander is coming off an exceptional 2010, in which he saved 42 games and recorded a 2.47 ERA between Washington and Minnesota. Capps was rewarded with a $7.15MM salary in his final arbitration season, but another raise next year is no sure thing.

Capps is just a year removed from a 2009 campaign so poor that the Pirates non-tendered him at season's end. After posting career-worst marks in ERA (5.80), BB/9 (2.8), and HR/9 (1.7), Capps righted the ship last season, making 2009 look like an anamoly. However, in what is essentially a contract year, the 27-year-old can't afford to regress again.

Capps' road to a lucrative multiyear deal is also made a little tougher by his probable role with the 2011 Twins. Joe Nathan, returning from Tommy John surgery, has been very effective this spring, and will likely get a chance to reclaim his closer's job as long as he's healthy. We saw plenty of setup men sign sizable contracts this past winter, but another season of 40+ saves would arguably set Capps up for a much bigger payday.

Even in a setup role and up against 2012's intimidating class of free agent relievers, Capps should have no problem earning himself an eight-figure contract if he continues to pitch like he did in 2010. There's not a whole lot of margin for error though. If Capps turns in a season closer to 2009's performance, teams will have no shortage of alternate options for their late-inning needs.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Make Or Break Year: Carlos Beltran

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This time the stakes are lower. When Carlos Beltran hit free agency after the 2004 season, he was in his prime, on the verge of a huge free agent deal. Beltran responded to the pressure with 38 regular season homers and eight more in the playoffs, tying Barry Bonds' postseason record and setting himself up for his current $119MM deal. 

Short of a Bonds-esque late-career breakthrough, Beltran won't come close to approaching his current contract when he hits free agency after the coming season. The market for 34-year-old corner outfielders with knee problems is not strong unless they're coming off of big seasons.

Beltran

2010 was not a big year for Beltran, who underwent a right knee operation in January and didn't return to the majors until July. He seemed healthy in September, when he posted a .967 OPS, but the sample size is small, so we can't be confident that Beltran can hit the way he did earlier in his career.

Despite his injuries, Beltran has hit .295/.384/.470 with 17 home runs in his last 612 plate appearances. If he stays healthy in 2011 and posts numbers like that, he and agent Scott Boras could ask for a multiyear deal next winter. Boras says Beltran can play center field or right, though clubs could be reluctant to put a 34-year-old with questionable knees in center, so it's not clear that Beltran's history as a Gold Glove center fielder will help him on the market.

If Beltran struggles again, he'll be in line for a one-year, incentive-based contract, which is nothing compared to his current deal. He can do better than a make-good contract if he puts together a big year in 2011, but it's hardly the same as in 2004, when his team's pennant hopes were on the line and the potential for a mega-deal existed.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Make Or Break Year: Bobby Abreu

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5061012196515_Athletics_at_Angels From 1998 through 2009, just nine players in baseball posted an on-base percentage of at least .400 (min. 6,000 PA), and only one did it with more than 100 total steals. That would be Bobby Abreu. From ages 24 through 35 ('98-'09), Abreu hit .301/.406/.497 with 253 homers and 341 steals for the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels. He wasn't quite a five-tool threat because his defense left a lot to be desired, but Abreu was an offensive force for more than a decade.

But in 2010, at age 36, the roof started to cave in. Abreu hit .255/.352/.435 overall, his lowest full season OPS ever. Although he still stole 24 bases, he was caught ten times for a 70.5% success rate, well below his 75.8% success rate from '98-'09. Abreu's first 40 double, 20 homer season since 2004 still resulted in the lowest full season slugging percentage of his career. 

Both the player and club are in a bind in 2011. Abreu's contract contains a $9MM vesting option for 2012 that will kick in with 433 plate appearances next year, a total he's reached every year since 1998. If the option vests, the Angels are on the hook for another year of Abreu's decline phase. If it doesn't, Abreu is a declining 37-year-old free agent that is best suited for designated hitter. Those guys aren't in high demand.

The Halos have the option of platooning Abreu in 2011, which would limit his plate appearances. He hit just .228/.296/.342 against southpaws in 2010, down from .267/.348/.386 in 2009 and .315/.370/.495 in 2008. The team doesn't appear to have an obvious right-handed platoon partner though, unless they try to really force the issue with someone like Brandon Wood or Bobby Wilson.

Abreu has long been a productive player in this league, one that should at least spark some Hall of Fame debate, but his best course of action in 2011 is to play well enough (and often enough) that his option kicks in. It's highly unlikely he'll find that kind of money on the open market after the season.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Make Or Break Year: Edwin Jackson

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If Edwin Jackson continues pitching the way he did after being traded last summer, he'll set himself up for tens of millions in free agency. If he pitches the way he did before being dealt from Arizona to Chicago, his free agent stock will tumble and agent Scott Boras will be looking to find Jackson a 'pillow contract.'

Though he threw a no-hitter for the D'Backs last summer, Jackson was mediocre in his brief stint in the desert. The 27-year-old posted a 5.16 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 134 1/3 innings in hitter-friendly Chase Field before moving back to the American League, where he thrived under the tutelage of pitching coach Don Cooper.

Edwin Jackson

Jackson dominated 11 starts for the White Sox after the trade, posting a 3.24 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 75 innings. Overall, Jackson posted a 49.4% ground ball rate and maintained an average fastball velocity of 94.4 mph (5th in MLB among qualified pitchers).

Like Jorge de la Rosa, who entered the 2010 season with comparable stats to the ones Jackson has now and a similarly inconsistent track record, Jackson could convince teams he's worthy of a multiyear contract by performing well in 2011, his contract year. De La Rosa, who has also been a member of five MLB organizations, missed time with a finger injury before putting together a strong season last year and he ended up with a $31.5MM contract.

If Jackson pitches reasonably well in 2010, he could ask for a contract like De La Rosa's. Jackson isn't left-handed, but he has more big league experience than De La Rosa despite being two years younger, since he first appeared in the majors as a teenager.

A poor season would limit interest in Jackson. His former teammate, Jeremy Bonderman, can attest to the fact that teams will shy away from starters if they don't have a strong walk year even if they're young and have a history of big league success (Bonderman's medical history is considerably spottier than Jackson's). But a strong season would set Jackson up as one of the top options in what will likely be a weak free agent class.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Make Or Break Year: Aramis Ramirez

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484083020100846A_Pirates_at_Cubs Despite posting outstanding numbers at the hot corner for one of baseball's best-known franchises, Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez always seemed to fly a little bit under the radar. Indeed, in a six-year span from 2004-09, Ramirez posted a studly triple-slash line of .303/.368/.551, but he never finished inside the top 10 of NL MVP voting. Durability was a bit of a concern during that time, as he averaged 131 games per season, but his injuries were typically of the nagging variety rather than debilitating.

In 2009, though, Ramirez suffered a dislocated shoulder midseason, missing most of May and all of June that year, but he returned in the second half and posted his usually solid offensive numbers. It all pointed toward Ramirez being his usual self in 2010, but it didn't happen that way.

A-Ram got off to a positively miserable start in April and May 2010, posting a .162/.227/.269 through those two months, and though he rebounded from there — going white-hot during July, in particular — his numbers at season's end still weren't pretty at .241/.294/.452, let alone up to his usually excellent career averages of .282/.340/.499.

Was it age catching up to the 32-year-old slugger? Injuries? A combination?

On the plus side for A-Ram, he bounced back markedly from his horrid April and May in 2010. On the down side, though, he is another year older, and he doesn't necessarily look like the most limber of athletes.

How Ramirez will contine to age is anyone's guess, but 2011 could go a long way toward projecting how he'll finish out his career. It's the last year of a five-year extension he signed with the Cubs prior to 2007, and it includes a $16MM club option for 2012 with a $2MM buyout.

Ramirez probably doesn't have much room for decline this season with respect to the chances of the Cubs picking up that pricey option, as it'd be hard to justify paying a third baseman that much money after two down years as he heads into his age-34 campaign. On the flip side, if he returns to his old form in 2011, the option could very well be exercised, and he'll again be facing a Make or Break Year in 2012.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Make Or Break Year: Casey Blake

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AQA10091411_Dodgers_at_Giants It's not quite as bad as Zambrano-for-Kazmir, but you have to think that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti would love to have a do-over on the trade that sent Carlos Santana and Jon Meloan to the Indians for Casey Blake and about $2MM in 2008. Two-and-a-half years later, Santana has developed into one of the two best young catchers in baseball while Blake finds himself at a career crossroads.

Following the trade, the now 37-year-old Blake hit .251/.313/.460 with ten homers in 233 plate appearances. The Dodgers re-signed him to a three-year, $17.5MM contract after the 2008 season, and Blake rewarded them in 2009. He hit .280/.363/.468 with 18 homers in 565 plate appearances, though he did battle nagging hamstring issues throughout the season.

Last season was a much different story. Blake came out of the gate well, hitting .273/.354/.482 in his first 39 games, but it all went downhill from there. His final 106 games featured a .238/.307/.378 batting line, and he struck out in 28 of his final 69 plate appearances of the season. The end result was a .248/.320/.407 line, a 99 OPS+ that was his worst in three years.

The Dodgers owe Blake a reasonable $5.25MM in 2011, then must decide whether to exercise his $6MM club option for 2012 or buy him out for $1.25MM. Given his declining performance and age, the latter looks more likely right now. The free agent market for players in their late-30's and relegated to the corner infield spots is not robust, so the best case scenario for Blake likely has him playing well enough that the team picks up that option. 

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Make Or Break Year: Joel Zumaya

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46520100620057_Dbacks_at_Tigers Long before Aroldis Chapman defected from Cuba, Joel Zumaya was the guy breaking all sorts of velocity records. During the 2006 ALDS, MLB Advanced Media's pitch tracking system clocked one of his fastballs at 104.8 mph, heights previously unreached. Zumaya, now 26, burst onto the scene that year with a 1.94 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 83 1/3 innings, holding opponents to a .187/.287/.270 batting line. The Tigers had their closer-in-waiting with Todd Jones nearing the end of his career, but injuries started to strike.

Since the start of the 2007 season, Zumaya has been on the 60-day disabled list five times, at least once per season. He had shoulder surgery to repair an AC joint separation in 2007, an injury he suffered helping his family move items in advance of California wildfires. Two years later he had another surgery on his shoulder, this time to correct a non-union stress fracture. Last year he suffered perhaps the ugliest injury of all, fracturing a bone in his elbow mid-pitch. 

That breakout 2006 season has been followed by four seasons with no more than 38 1/3 innings. Zumaya has been effective when he's been on the mound though, striking out 8.1 batters per nine and pitching to a 3.78 ERA over the last four years. He's not what he was that rookie season, but he's certainly been a quality relief arm, and quality relief arms have been rewarded with handsome multiyear contracts this winter.

Zumaya is now entering his final season of team control. He and the Tigers have already agreed to a $1.4MM salary for 2011, but that's a pittance compared to what he could make in the future with a strong and, most importantly, healthy season. Zumaya has already started throwing off a mound and is on track for Opening Day, but that's just step one of a season-long process.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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