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Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

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The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

Marlins Have Shown Interest In Aroldis Chapman

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The Marlins are among the teams with interest in Aroldis Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Miami becomes the first team known to have checked in on the seven-time All-Star reliever this offseason, though Heyman suggests there are multiple clubs in the mix.

While the Fish are apparently keeping an eye on Chapman, it’s not clear how strong their interest is. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported this afternoon the Marlins hadn’t put forth a formal offer. According to the Herald, Chapman is hoping to sign with a team in the relatively near future and has been working out in the Miami area, where he lives.

One of the sport’s best relievers for more than a decade, Chapman remained a valuable late-game arm as recently as 2021. He secured an All-Star nod that season and provided the Yankees with a 3.36 ERA through 56 1/3 innings. His walk and home run numbers were a bit alarming but the overall results were solid. New York trusted him enough to give him the ninth inning, where he saved 30 games in 34 attempts.

Had Chapman hit free agency coming off that season, he’d likely have been in line for a solid multi-year pact. The big southpaw had easily the worst season of his career in 2022, sending him to the open market with his value at a low ebb. Chapman posted a 4.46 ERA across 36 1/3 innings, the first year in which he’d allowed more than four earned runs per nine. He walked 17.5% of opposing hitters, the second-highest rate of his career and the loftiest clip of any reliever with 30+ innings pitched last year.

Chapman paired the abundance of free passes with the lowest strikeout percentage of his career. He fanned 26.9% of batters faced, the first time he’d punched out fewer than 30% of opponents. Even that diminished mark for Chapman was still firmly better than average, however. That’s also true of his fastball velocity. His heater sat at 97.5 MPH, a lower figure compared to his peak when he routinely averaged north of 100 MPH. Yet even that version of Chapman was among the sport’s hardest-throwing southpaws. New Philadelphia teammates Gregory Soto and José Alvarado were the game’s only lefties who topped Chapman in average fastball speed.

Given the quality of even the “lesser” stuff he’s brandishing, Chapman could certainly right the ship and reemerge as a quality high-leverage piece. His 2022 issues weren’t limited to his on-field inconsistency though. The 34-year-old (35 next month) had a pair of stints on the injured list. He missed time early in the year to Achilles tendinitis before a late-season injured list stint that arose when a tattoo got infected. That led to some frustration from Yankees brass, and New York left Chapman off their playoff rosters entirely after he didn’t report to a team workout shortly before the start of the postseason.

That certainly seemed to bring an unceremonious end to Chapman’s generally productive seven-year tenure in the Bronx. There was never much doubt he’d catch on elsewhere. Part of a left-handed relief class that has bizarrely lagged the rest of the free agent market, Chapman lingers in free agency alongside the likes of Andrew Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore and Brad Hand.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins are broadly surveying the market for potential relief help. The Herald reiterates the team’s previously-reported interest in former Cardinals closer Alex Reyes, who continues to work his way back from last May’s shoulder surgery. Jackson and Mish write that Reyes is hopeful of signing with Miami. He’d also be a high-risk upside flier considering his recent health history, though Reyes is far younger than Chapman and throws right-handed. The Fish already have a trio of southpaws — Tanner Scott, Steven Okert and Richard Bleier — locked into their bullpen, so they don’t necessarily have to narrow down targets based on handedness.

Marlins Have Been In Contact With Yuli Gurriel

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The Marlins have been in contact with free agent first baseman Yuli Gurriel, according to Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald and Alejandro Villegas of 5 Reasons Sports.

Gurriel, 39 in June, has spent his entire MLB career with the Astros thus far. He signed with them out of Cuba in 2016, a five-year deal that covered the 2016-2020 period. After a brief showing in the first year of that deal, Gurriel established himself as an above-average regular in the three subsequent seasons. From 2017 through 2019, he walked in just 4.7% of his trips to the plate but he also only struck out 10.9% of the time. He hit 62 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .296/.333/.486. His 119 wRC+ in that time indicates he was 19% better than league average.

The past three years have been far less consistent, however. Gurriel slumped badly in the shortened 2020 season, hitting just .232/.274/.384 for a wRC+ of 76. Nonetheless, the Astros had enough faith in him that they gave him a one-year extension with a club option for 2022. He bounced back in a huge way, winning the American League batting title in 2021 by hitting .319 and producing a 132 wRC+. The club triggered their club option for 2022 but saw Gurriel slump again, hitting .242/.288/.360, 86 wRC+, though he did catch fire in the postseason and hit .347/.360/.490. His market has been quiet so far this offseason, with the only reported interest coming from the Astros, though that was before they signed José Abreu.

The Fish don’t strictly need to add a first baseman since they already have Garrett Cooper lined up for that position. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of the past four seasons but is frequently injured, having yet to reach 120 games in any season of his career. Acquiring Gurriel would give them some extra cover or allow the club to monitor the workloads of the two players. Both players are right-handed but Cooper has reverse splits, meaning some platooning is possible. He has a 119 wRC+ against righties for his career but a 113 against lefties. It was even more pronounced in 2022, with a 79 against southpaws and a 125 otherwise.

There’s also the possibility of the duo taking some time at designated hitter, though that it somewhat complicated by the presence of Jorge Soler. The outfielder missed significant time in 2022 due to back spasms and reports have indicated he’ll likely get the bulk of his playing time in the DH slot next year.

All this makes Gurriel a slightly awkward fit on the roster but his inconsistent track record in recent years and advancing age probably mean he won’t cost much. That surely makes him appealing to a fairly low-spending Marlins club. The payroll is currently around $103MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That’s fairly modest by MLB standards but the club has only once gone higher than that, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which was back in 2017 under the previous ownership group. Last year, they opened the season with just $79MM on the books.

Whatever the cost, adding Gurriel would be another attempt for the club to add some more offense to its tepid lineup, which produced a wRC+ of 88 last year, placing them 25th out of the 30 teams in the league. They’ve already signed Jean Segura as part of that effort and have also been trying to trade from their rotation surplus for quite some time, though a deal still hasn’t come together.

Cardinals Among Teams To Inquire On Marlins’ Starters

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The Cardinals and Marlins have held “at least preliminary” discussions regarding Miami’s bevy of young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal suggests that St. Louis is a nice fit for Pablo Lopez, although on paper, it’s easy enough to make a case for just about any of the Marlins’ available starters as a fit in St. Louis. Each of Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera has seen his name surface in trade chatter recently. Miami, however, doesn’t seem to have any plans to deal ace Sandy Alcantara, whom the Cardinals actually traded to the Fish alongside Zac Gallen in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna from Miami to St. Louis.

The Cardinals have a solid-looking rotation on the surface, with each of Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty likely to slot into the starting five. Depth options behind the group include Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante, although the latter two did well in a bullpen setting in 2022. Further down the line are prospects Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence, although none of that group is on the 40-man roster just yet.

All that said, however, the Cards could lose nearly their entire rotation after the season. Wainwright is set to retire, while each of Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents next winter. Only Matz, whose four-year contract covers the 2022-25 seasons, is signed or controlled beyond the current season.

In that sense, there’s good reason for the Cards to pursue a starter who can be controlled through at least the 2024 season. There’s surely some internal hope that someone like Liberatore, Graceffo or McGreevy can step up and seize a rotation spot when an opportunity inevitably presents itself this season, but that’s a lot to bank on. And, even if that happens, the Cards would still be looking at multiple rotation spots they need to fill next offseason — perhaps as many as three.

Lopez, 27 in March, has a 3.52 ERA over his past 340 big league innings and is arbitration-eligible through the 2024 campaign. Luzardo, even younger at 25, enjoyed a nice bounceback year in 2022 when he notched a 3.32 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, but a forearm injury limited him to just 100 1/3 innings. He’s under team control through 2026. That’s the same amount of club control as the 25-year-old Rogers, a 2021 Rookie of the Year finalist who stumbled to a 5.47 ERA in 107 frames in 2022, his second full MLB campaign. The 24-year-old Cabrera, meanwhile, has six full years of club control remaining and notched a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings in 2022.

None of that bunch is expensive, with Lopez’s $5.45MM salary leading the way. Finances shouldn’t play a major consideration for the Cardinals anyhow; they’re on pace to roughly match last year’s $163MM payroll, and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak had previously indicated the ability to increase payroll. From Miami’s vantage point, their projected $103MM payroll would be the second-highest mark in club history.

The Marlins are known to be seeking improvements to their lineup and have been prioritizing center field and catcher dating back to last offseason. Miami swung a trade for Pittsburgh catcher Jacob Stallings prior to the 2022 season but saw the former Gold Glove winner turn in a disappointing .233/.292/.292 batting line while his typically high-end defensive grades also cratered. Center field remains an unaddressed need, and Miami again appears likely to take someone better suited for a corner (Bryan De La Cruz) and hope for the best this season.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are deep in outfielders with Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar likely lined up left-to-right at the MLB level. (Rosenthal suggests that of the bunch, Nootbaar is the least likely to change hands.) Top prospect Jordan Walker, who’s likely all but off limits in trade talks, looms behind that group. Alec Burleson, meanwhile, has already gotten some MLB experience, and fellow outfielder Moises Gomez posted big numbers in the upper minors. Behind the plate, the Cards have well-regarded catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who doesn’t exactly have a clear path to a regular role now that Willson Contreras has been signed to a five-year deal.

Certainly, the Cards and Marlins seem to have aligning needs that could lead to a trade, but there’s also no indication that talks are particularly heated. Miami has likely discussed its available starters with more than half the league, given the dearth of viable big league options elsewhere on the trade market. Even the Cards and Marlins themselves don’t know whether a deal will ultimately come together at this juncture, but it’s nevertheless of some note that the two parties have at least held some surface-level talks.

MLBTR Poll: The NL East Favorite

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The National League East is shaping up as one of baseball’s more competitive divisions in 2023. The defending champion Braves, Mets and Phillies have all made big moves to bolster their already strong rosters, while the Marlins will lean on a quality rotation to try and be competitive. The Nationals are, of course, in full rebuild mode and won’t be among the division’s best this year.

There’s still a chance of one or two significant moves to be made in this division. It’s been reported that Miami has made four of their starting pitchers available in trades, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ship out a starter to bring in an offensive upgrade, possibly an outfielder.

Nonetheless, let’s take a look at each team’s off-season to see how they stack up in this division heading into the new season (teams listed in last year’s standings order).

Atlanta Braves (101-61)

In: C Sean Murphy, LHP Lucas Luetge, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Eli White, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Joe Jimenez.

Out: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Darren O’Day, RHP Luke Jackson, OF Adam Duvall, C William Contreras, C Manny Pina.

The Braves big splash of the off-season was their trade for Murphy. In typical Braves fashion, they wasted little time in extending him as well, signing him to a six-year, $73MM pact to lock him in as their catcher of the future. The Braves weren’t struggling at catcher, but the arrival of Murphy is still an upgrade over Contreras and Pina, who were both shipped out in the deal. He’ll join a lineup that is largely the same as the one that won 101 games last season. The big hole remains at shortstop and in left field. Swanson departed for the Cubs in free agency, and the team could either rely on Orlando Arcia or rookie Vaughn Grissom to take over. Eddie Rosario was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2022, but the Braves are paying him $9MM this year and it seems likely he’ll be back as the starter in left. Luplow could get some opportunities to take the starting job on his new team, but he posted a wRC+ of just 78 last season.

In the rotation, Max Fried will be back to lead a starting corp that also features Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. A wretched run of Achilles injuries meant Mike Soroka has only made three starts in the past three seasons, but he’s back and if he can stay fit and return to his 2019 performance he gives the Braves a quality fifth option. The acquisitions of Luetge and Jimenez gives the Braves another couple of quality relief arms to cover the departure of Jansen in free agency.

All told it’s a quality roster that doesn’t appear to be weaker the 2022, but will it be enough to hold off other teams in the division?

New York Mets (101-61)

In: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Zach Greene, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kodai Senga, C Omar Narvaez, SS Danny Mendick, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham.

Out: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP, Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor May, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Mychal Givens, C James McCann.

The Mets effectively had to overhaul their rotation and bullpen this winter, after a series of major departures in both areas. In a fashion befitting the Steve Cohen-era Mets, they did so in expensive fashion. The Mets quickly offset the departures of deGrom, Bassitt and Walker by signing Verlander, Quintana and Senga to big deals and ensuring their rotation is at least as strong as last year. In the bullpen they re-signed Adam Ottavino, brought in David Robertson and made a series of smaller trades and waiver claims to rebuild their relief group.

Offensively, the Mets didn’t have too many moves to make. The big hole was in the outfield, but the team addressed that by bringing back Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year, $162MM deal. They came close to adding Carlos Correa, but that move broke down over the much-publicized medical concerns. Correa would’ve certainly been a boost to their offense, but they’re still in a good spot without him. They could probably still do with another outfielder, and it’s been reported that they’re interested in the remaining free agent options there (Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall etc).

The Mets led the East for the majority of 2022 and they’ll again be up there in ’23. Perhaps one more major move (like Correa) would’ve sealed them as division favorites, but they’re still in a very good spot as is.

Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)

In: LHP Gregory Soto, INF Kody Clemens, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Matt Strahm, SS Trea Turner, OF Jake Cave,

Out: OF Matt Vierling, INF Phil Maton, C Donny Sands, INF Jean Segura, RHP Noah Syndergaard, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP David Robertson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP Corey Knebel.

The Phillies went all the way to the World Series in 2022, but they still finished 14 games back of the Braves and Mets in the division so had a bit of work to do to try and close that gap going into this season. The addition of Turner gives them a superstar at the top of their lineup alongside Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and co. If youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can take a step forward at the plate this year they’ll have a much deeper lineup. They’ll hope they can do enough to stick with the Braves and Mets in the first half of the season, before welcoming back star Bryce Harper from injury at some stage mid-season.

On the pitching side of things, Walker slots in as a quality third option behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The bullpen lost a number of players this winter, but the additions of Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel to a group that already has Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado and Andrew Bellatti should make that area of the team a strength in season.

All told, the Phillies do look a better unit than they were to start 2022, but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll be enough to make up 14 games on the Braves and Mets – who certainly haven’t taken a step backwards themselves this winter.

Miami Marlins (69-93)

In: INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jean Segura, OF Jake Mangum, RHP JT Chargois, SS Xavier Edwards, RHP Johnny Cueto.

Out: SS Miguel Rojas, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham, 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Nick Neidert.

The Marlins have had a quiet off-season, but they could be one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, let alone the NL East, between now and the start of the season. That’s because they’ve reportedly made four of their starters – Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo – available in trades. That speculation has only intensified in the wake of them agreeing to a deal with veteran starter Johnny Cueto.

As such, it makes sense to start with a look at their rotation as things stand. Sandy Alcantara isn’t going anywhere and he’ll be back to lead the rotation after winning the Cy Young award in 2022. Beyond Alcantara will be Cueto and then some combination of the four previously mentioned starters. The fact team also has Sixto Sanchez returning as well as Braxton Garrett available shows how deep their rotation options are, but also that they could feasibly deal two starters and still be in a good position in the rotation. In any event, pitching should be a strength for the Marlins in 2023.

Presumably any trade of a starter would be to add a bat to their lineup. The signing of Segura likely filled out their infield, but the team could certainly do with an outfield upgrade. Bryan Reynolds is the highest profile option there, but other options on the could include Max Kepler or a free agent addition such as Pham or Duvall.

The Marlins do look capable of topping last year’s 69-win total as is, but it’d be interesting to see how they’d go with a deeper lineup, and whether or not a swing-for-the-fences-type move such as trading for Reynolds would propel them into the Wildcard conversation.

Washington Nationals (55-107)

In: OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Jeter Downs, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Stone Garrett, 3B Jeimer Candelario.

Out: 1B/DH Luke Voit, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Will Harris, 2B Cesar Hernandez, RHP Joe Ross, DH Nelson Cruz, LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Tommy Romero, RHP A.J. Alexy.

After eight-straight winning seasons between 2012-19 culminated in a championship in 2019, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode. They lost 107 games in 2022, and wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose a similar amount in 2023. While the new schedule calls for fewer divisional matchups, the Nats certainly won’t be helped by regularly playing in a division with a number of quality teams.

Offensively, the Nationals will look for contributions from youngsters CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz – two players they’ll hope to build their next playoff roster around. They’ve also brought in a couple of cheaper bounceback candidates in Smith and Candelario, and both could turn themselves into trade chips at the deadline. It’s a similar story on the pitching side, where they’ll hope Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli can show they can be long-term rotation pieces for the team.

While the Nationals are the clear favorite to prop up the group, it should be an interesting battle in the NL East, particularly with the Braves, Mets and Phillies. What do you think? Who will finish top of the East? Have your say in the poll below.

Marlins, Twins Have Discussed Trade Possibilities Involving Pablo Lopez, Max Kepler

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The Marlins and Twins have discussed trade scenarios involving Miami starter Pablo López, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Luis Arraez were among the names who’d come up in those discussions but adds the Twins aren’t interested in parting with Arraez.

Minnesota’s interest in López isn’t a new development. Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily first reported in mid-December the Twins were in touch with the Fish about López. Obviously, nothing has yet come together and Heyman’s report doesn’t suggest there’s anything particularly close between the two clubs.

López, 27 in March, has been a frequent target in trade rumors for well over a year. The right-hander has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

That kind of consistent mid-rotation production has piqued the interest of a number of contenders but Miami has held onto López so far. That’s in spite of a reported willingness to deal from their stable of quality starting pitchers to address a lackluster lineup. While the Venezuelan-born righty has been the most frequently mentioned trade candidate in the Miami rotation, the Fish are reportedly open to offers on any of Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo as well.

That latter trio of pitchers all come with longer windows of club control and high-octane stuff. None has the consistent multi-year track record López has established, though, making him an ideal fit for a team firmly in win-now mode and looking to upgrade its starting five. López is in his second season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $5.6MM salary next season; he’ll earn a raise on that during his final trip through the process before reaching free agency for the first time after 2024.

The Twins don’t strictly need a starter, though there’s enough uncertainty in their group they could accommodate another acquisition. That’s particularly true for a pitcher of López’s caliber, as he’d arguably step in as their best arm on staff. Minnesota is set to open the 2023 season with a top five of Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda. That group was hit hard by injuries last year, with Ryan leading the way at 147 innings. Mahle, Gray and Ober each had multiple injured list stints, including a two and a half month absence for Ober thanks to a groin strain. Maeda missed the whole season recovering from September 2021 Tommy John surgery.

There’s a decent amount of upside. Young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland and Josh Winder have potential as depth options and Chris Paddack could return in the season’s second half from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Yet it’s equally easy to see the risk associated with the group considering their collective injury histories. Bringing in another quality starter would be a nice boost to a Minnesota club looking to build off their surprising new agreement with Carlos Correa and could push one or two of the touted young arms into a bullpen that seems the roster’s biggest question mark.

Minnesota has plenty of high-level outfield depth from which they could deal to bolster the pitching. They’re particularly deep in left-handed hitters, with Kepler, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner all factoring into the mix around star center fielder Byron Buxton. Kepler is the only member of the group who isn’t still in his pre-arbitration seasons. That has made him the most frequently speculated upon trade candidate but also arguably the least desirable target of the group for other clubs.

Like López, Kepler comes with two remaining seasons of club control. He’ll make $8.5MM this year and is guaranteed at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2024. He turns 30 in February and is headed into his ninth big league season.

Kepler looked to have broken out in 2019, when he connected on 36 home runs and posted a .252/.336/.519 line through 596 trips to the plate. He’s always had quality contact skills and plate discipline, and the seeming power spike elevated his offensive profile enough he secured some down-ballot MVP votes that year. In retrospect, that season seems an anomaly at least partially attributable to the extremely lively ball the league used. Kepler has been fine but unspectacular in the three years since then, hitting .220/.314/.392 in over 1100 plate appearances.

That includes a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine homers last season. His walk and strikeout rates remained excellent but he posted the worst power numbers of his career. Kepler also consistently runs very low batting averages on balls in play. That’s in part thanks to a pull-happy, grounder-heavy offensive profile that has made him susceptible to overshifts. The forthcoming limitations on defensive positioning could lead to a few more base knocks but isn’t likely to help him rediscover his power stroke.

Even with middling offense, Kepler is a valuable player. He’s an elite defensive right fielder who has also held his own in more than 1100 career innings in center field. Buxton, arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder when healthy, relegates Kepler to the corner in Minnesota. Yet he’d be a viable candidate for everyday center field work on another club. That’s the case for Miami, where younger players like JJ Bleday, Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez rotated through center field work in 2022. Each of them is better suited for a corner and has a limited offensive track record at the MLB level. Miami hasn’t addressed center field this winter, currently leaving that trio as an imperfect solution to take up-the-middle reps alongside Avisaíl García and perhaps Jorge Soler in the corners.

Kepler is a sensible trade target for the Marlins, particularly given their reported preference for higher-contact bats. It’s clear, however, that he alone wouldn’t convince general manager Kim Ng and her staff to part with López. An upper mid-rotation starter is going to hold more appeal than an outfielder coming off three roughly average offensive seasons, even one as defensively gifted as Kepler. That’s true even before considering López is a few years younger and will make a bit less over the next two seasons than Kepler will. Including Kepler in a deal involving López could make sense for both sides, but the Twins would have to offer additional young talent to convince Miami to pull the trigger.

Arraez, however, is apparently a bridge too far for Minnesota’s liking. The reigning AL batting champion would certainly fit Miami’s desire for a high-contact hitter and he’s coming off a .316/.375/.420 line over 603 trips to the plate. He’s controllable for three more seasons and projected for a $5MM arbitration salary. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported last month the Twins had given some consideration to making Arraez available in a deal that brought back a “top-tier starting pitcher” who was controllable beyond next season.

One could argue whether López fits that description, but it doesn’t seem the Twins feel he’s at the level that’d inspire them to part with one of their best hitters. Arraez is presently penciled in as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, though he’ll also work as a designated hitter and spell Jorge Polanco and José Miranda at second and third base, respectively.

Miguel Rojas Expected To Undergo Additional Wrist Procedure

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After eight seasons with the Marlins, Miguel Rojas changed organizations this evening. Miami traded the infielder to the Dodgers in a one-for-one deal that sent infield prospect Jacob Amaya to South Florida.

Rojas is coming off a tough season in which he hit .237/.282/.324 through 504 trips to the plate. A right wrist issue seemed to play a role in that subpar offensive output, as the veteran underwent surgery in October to repair a torn triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC). Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported this evening that Rojas had another minor issue arise recently and is expected to undergo another procedure to address the matter (Twitter link).

There’s no indication this latest issue will affect Rojas’ readiness for Spring Training, much less the start of the regular season. It’s clearly not of much concern to the Dodgers, who were no doubt made aware of it during trade discussions. Rojas acknowledged this evening there’s “still a couple things I need to figure out with the wrist” but added he’d “be ready for Spring Training if everything goes well” (via Matthew Moreno of Dodger Blue).

Rojas, 34 next month, adds a glove-first utility option to the mix in L.A. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes the club plans to bounce the nine-year MLB veteran around the infield in a multi-positional capacity. That leaves open the possibility of Gavin Lux taking the primary shortstop job, with Max Muncy and Chris Taylor on hand to see time at second and third base (and for Taylor to continue logging plenty of outfield action). Top prospect Miguel Vargas is expected to get a chance at the hot corner as well.

As for Miami, they’ve subtracted some certainty from the short-term infield mix. Mish tweets that Joey Wendle is likely to serve as the club’s primary shortstop at the start of the season. He’d pair in the middle infield with young star Jazz Chisholm Jr., while offseason signee Jean Segura is ticketed for third base duty. Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote last week that Chisholm was interested in getting a chance to move back to shortstop at some point. It doesn’t seem that’ll be under consideration for now, though.

Amaya, a glove-first infielder, is already on the 40-man roster. He’s coming off a .259/.368/.381 showing in Triple-A and figures to get a chance for his big league debut at some point in 2023. Fellow rookies Jordan Groshans and Xavier Edwards are also on the 40-man, as is speedy utility player Jon Berti.

Marlins Outright Charles Leblanc

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Infielder Charles Leblanc has been passed through waivers by the Marlins and outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Leblanc was designated for assignment last week when the club signed Jean Segura.

Leblanc, 27 in June, was drafted by the Rangers in 2016 but was never added to their roster. In November of 2021, he was selected by the Marlins in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. He played well enough in Jacksonville to get selected to the big league roster in July. In 87 games for the Jumbo Shrimp, he hit .302/.381/.503 for a wRC+ of 134.

Once up in the big leagues, he got into 48 games and generally carried himself well. He hit .263/.320/.404 for a wRC+ of 107 while playing the three non-shortstop infield positions. Despite those strong points, there were also some concerning elements. His .374 batting average on balls in play was well beyond the .290 league average, suggesting there may have been some good fortune in his results. He also struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, well beyond the 22.4% MLB mean.

It seems those latter points were strong enough to keep any of the 29 other teams from putting in a claim. That allows the Marlins to hang onto him as a depth piece who isn’t taking up a spot on the 40-man.

Dodgers Acquire Miguel Rojas

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The Dodgers bolstered their infield depth Wednesday evening, announcing agreement with the Marlins on a deal that brings in veteran infielder Miguel Rojas. Miami receives infield prospect Jacob Amaya in a one-for-one swap.

Rojas, 34 in February, actually made his MLB debut for the Dodgers in 2014 but was one of the seven players involved in a trade that December that saw him head to Miami. He served in a utility role for a few years but gradually took over the everyday shortstop job for the Marlins.

He hasn’t hit much in the majors, having only gone over the fence 39 times in his nine seasons. However, he has proven tough to strike out, only going down on strikes in 12.6% of his career plate appearances. For reference, the league average last year was 22.4%, so Rojas has been punched out at a rate barely half of that. The overall result is a career batting line of .260/.314/.358 and a wRC+ of 85, indicating he’s been about 15% below league average.

What really makes Rojas appealing is his glove. Last year, he got strong marks from all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average. His 15 DRS was second among shortstops last year with only Jeremy Peña ahead of him. His 4.9 UZR was fourth-best in the league and his 10 OAA had him tied for fifth. He also finished second at the position in the Fielding Bible voting, trailing only Jorge Mateo. His sprint speed is only in the 29th percentile but he was still able to swipe 22 bags over the past two seasons. Despite the subpar batting, he’s been worth 1.2 wins above replacement or higher in each of the past six seasons, according to the calculations of FanGraphs.

Rojas had previously been connected to the Red Sox in the offseason but instead returns to Los Angeles. The Dodgers lost their incumbent shortstop when Trea Turner reached free agency and signed with the Phillies earlier this offseason. The club is expected to give Gavin Lux a chance to move from second to short and become the long-term solution there, but having Rojas on hand gives them a veteran fallback who can also potentially impart his veteran wisdom to the younger player.

Despite the attributes of Rojas, the Marlins have moved on. They’ve been known to be looking for more offense for quite some time given their struggles in that department. The team-wide batting line last year was .230/.294/.363 for a wRC+ of 88, placing them ahead of just five other teams in the league in that regard. The Fish tried to add a bit more pop to the lineup recently when they signed Jean Segura. It was speculated by some at that point that they would then move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to shortstop and install Segura at the keystone. Subsequent reports suggest the club actually planned to have Segura at third, while it appears Joey Wendle will get first crack at shortstop.

It’s possible the other player in this deal will be a factor at the shortstop position in Miami before long. Amaya, 24, was drafted by the Dodgers in 2017 and has been considered one of their more interesting prospects since then. Prospect evaluators have generally considered him to be an excellent defender but there are questions about his bat. In 2021, he spent the year in Double-A, getting into 113 games at that level. While he walked in 10.9% of his plate appearances, he hit just .216/.303/.343 for a wRC+ of 75. Despite that tepid showing, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of that year to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft.

Last year, seemed to get the hang of Double-A, hitting .264/.370/.500 for a wRC+ of 120 in 49 games. He was sent up to Triple-A but hit another speed bump. He walked in 14.9% of his trips to the plate but his .259/.368/.381 line was only good enough for a 94 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He still has a couple of option years remaining, which would allow the Marlins to keep him in the minors to continue developing as a hitter. But since he’s already played in 84 games at the Triple-A level, it doesn’t seem like a major league audition should be too far off.

It seems the win-now Dodgers have placed a higher value on the immediate impact of Rojas than the future value of Amaya. The Marlins, meanwhile, have a longer path towards contention and would appear to have a stronger interest in Amaya’s ability to help them for years to come.

The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Rojas’ $5MM contract for the 2023 season. They’re tacking on a matching number to their competitive balance tax calculation with Rojas in the final season of his two-year deal. That latter point is more important, since the payroll is well below the club’s spending over the past few years.

There has been some suggestion the Dodgers would like to get under the tax threshold this year in order to reset their status. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying it in consecutive seasons but the Dodgers could theoretically stay under the $233MM line this year and go into 2024 as “first-time” payors. They have been right around that border of late, at least per the unofficial calculations of Roster Resource. They’re now firmly over the line, projected around $237MM. If the club is indeed hoping to duck under the line, they would likely have to subtract another contract from their ledger between now and season’s end.

Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic was first to report the Dodgers were “deep in talks” with Miami about a Rojas deal. Craig Mish of SportsGrid was first to report the Marlins would receive Amaya in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed the sides were in agreement. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase was first to report Los Angeles was taking on Rojas’ entire $5MM salary.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins To Sign Johnny Cueto

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The Marlins are in agreement with free agent right-hander Johnny Cueto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Cueto, a client of Primo Sports Group, will be guaranteed $8.5MM on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2024 season, per Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link). That’ll be paid out in the form of a $6MM salary for the upcoming season, plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $10.5MM option for a second year. If the Fish pick up that option, Cueto would earn $16.5MM over the next two seasons.

Cueto, who’ll pitch next season at age 37, began his career with the Reds in 2008 and was among the best pitchers in baseball for them from 2011 to 2015, when he was dealt to the Royals midseason in exchange for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed. The highlight of Cueto’s tenure in Cincinnati was the 2014 season, when he led the NL in innings pitched (243 2/3) and strikeouts (242) while also posting a sterling 2.25 ERA (163 ERA+) en route to his first All-Star appearance and a second-place finish in Cy Young award voting.

Cueto went on to win a World Series with the Royals in 2015 before departing for free agency, where he eventually landed with the Giants on a six-year, $130MM deal. In the first year of his deal with San Francisco, Cueto was excellent. An ERA of 2.79 (144 ERA+) with a FIP of 2.95 over 219 2/3 innings led him to his second All-Star appearance and a fourth-place finish in Cy Young award voting as the Giants secured a spot in the Wild Card game, defeating the Mets in a one-game playoff before falling to the Cubs in the NLDS.

While the contract appeared to be a resounding success after the first year, things quickly took a turn as Cueto began to struggle to stay on the field. From 2017 until the end of his Giants tenure in 2021, Cueto posted a 4.38 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.47 FIP in just 394 1/3 innings while spending time on the injured list in each of those seasons except for the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Given his injury history and the fact that his numbers were closer to those of a back-end starter than the dominant ace he once was, Cueto settled for a minor-league deal with the White Sox in 2022 — albeit one with a notable base salary of $4.2MM (quite a bit higher than most minor league deals).

That deal worked out phenomenally for the White Sox, as Cueto posted a resurgent season in 2022 and looked like a bit more like his old self as he posted a 3.35 ERA (118 ERA+) and and 3.79 FIP across 24 starts and 158 1/3 innings. While Cueto no longer struck batters out at an above-average rate as he did in the prime of his career, he maintained his excellent control, posting a 5.1% walk rate that ranked in the 88th percentile of all MLB hurlers, per Statcast. Despite Cueto’s resurgent season, however, there’s reason to think regression could be on the way in 2023. Cueto’s homer-to-flyball rate dropped considerably from a 12% rate in 2021 to a 7.7% rate in 2022. While changes to the pitching environment could factor into this, Cueto’s mark in 2022 was below even his career 10.4% mark — even as he gave up barreled balls at his highest rate since 2019.

Despite these concerns, Cueto should still be a quality arm for the Marlins in 2023. He joins a Miami rotation already overflowing with options: ace Sandy Alcantara is followed by Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera, and Braxton Garrett in addition to Cueto.

That’s also not including young arms who could contribute in the future, such as Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez, Jake Eder and Max Meyer. Tommy John surgery has sidelined both Eder (Aug. 2021) and Meyer (July 2022) recently, and Sanchez has dealt with recurring shoulder troubles. Still, that trio are all fairly well regarded, while Perez is arguably the top pitching prospect in the sport at this point.

Rumors have swirled throughout the offseason of the Marlins dealing from their deep stable of rotation players, and signing Cueto provides them with additional depth in the rotation in order to more comfortably make those deals. Currently, the Marlins are reported to be listening to offers on four members of the rotation: Lopez, Rogers, Cabrera and Luzardo. With plenty of teams still looking to add to their rotation this offseason, including the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Padres, signing one of the best remaining starters on the free agent market has surely strengthened Miami’s position in trade talks.

With Cueto now in place, the Marlins’ projected payroll is up to about $106MM, per Roster Resource. That’d represent the team’s highest mark since trotting out a franchise-record $117MM Opening Day payroll back in 2017, though it’s of course still one of the smaller financial outlays of any team in the sport. It also bears mentioning that a trade from that stable of young starters could reduce the total expenditure; Lopez is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.6MM in 2023. Luzardo is projected to earn $2MM. Rogers and Cabrera are not yet arbitration-eligible.

The Padres and Reds are among the clubs that have shown interest in Cueto this winter previously. The starting options on the free agent market this offseason are quickly dwindling, but Michael Wacha and Zack Greinke still offer the ability to solidify a club’s rotation. Otherwise, rotation upgrades likely would need to come from the trade market, where the Marlins seem to hold the majority of the cards.

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