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Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, Bleday, Alvarez, Outman, Steer

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Pitchers and catchers report in 10 days, at which point we’ll have more to discuss in virtually every facet of the sport. Until then, let’s review more prospects tangentially connected to the news. Today’s episode coincidentally includes a number of left-handed hitters with holes in their swing.

Five BHPs In The News

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 626 PA, 19 HR, 18 SB, .278/.406/.469

In a recent radio spot, Orioles general manager Mike Elias indicated a belief Cowser will debut later this season. A recent review of the Baltimore farm system published by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen offers modest cause for concern. There are now questions about Cowser’s ability to perform against low-in-the-zone breaking balls and inside fastballs. Those are two very large holes for a big league hitter, indicating Cowser might require a carefully managed role once he is promoted. The lower-half stiffness noted by Longenhagen is a new issue and might relate to the workload Cowser shouldered last season. In order to improve and adjust, Cowser could require a long stint in Triple-A.

JJ Bleday, 25, OF, MIA (MLB)
(MLB) 238 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .167/.277/.309

The left-handed hitting slugger has two massive issues to overcome – a weakness against up-and-away fastballs and a pulled, fly-ball-oriented approach lacking in high-quality exit velocities. Both issues were on full display in Bleday’s first season, and he has used up his rookie eligibility. Bleday is currently expected to compete with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz for playing time in left field. Unless he improves upon both shortcomings, the former fourth-overall pick will be limited to heavily scripted usage against right-handed sinkerballers. Achieving such an adjustment will likely require a new swing and a return to Triple-A to digest the changes.

Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 411 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511

A burly backstop who frequently draws hitting comps to Salvador Perez, Alvarez will need to play his way onto an Opening Day roster that already includes catchers Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. While neither player is expected to block Alvarez, he also has a second pathway onto the roster – designated hitter. As we learned yesterday, the Mets are carrying a veteran tandem of Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham in part to leave a door open for Alvarez and Brett Baty (covered last week) to get at-bats as part of the revolving door at DH.

As a hitter, Alvarez appears primed for the Show. There is near-term concern about his rate of contact and occasional lapses into over-selectivity. Even so, these are small issues to polish rather than fatal flaws.

James Outman, 25, OF, LAD (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 559 PA, 31 HR, 13 SB, .294/.393/.586

Although the Dodgers have made peace with crossing the first luxury tax threshold, they’ve done little to fortify their left field mix. Outman will compete with the likes of Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward for a regular role this spring. Outman’s approach could serve as a roadmap for Bleday. The left-handed hitting Outman makes frequently pulled, fly ball contact, but he isn’t nearly as extreme as the similarly built Marlins outfielder. Outman also consistently delivers line drives which allows him to post above-average BABIPs. Toss in above-average plate discipline, and he has a chance to hit for average, OBP, and power despite expectations of a 30 percent strikeout rate.

Spencer Steer, 25, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 427 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515

Acquired as part of the return in the Tyler Mahle trade, Steer looks the part of a future second-division starter or frequently-used utility man. The Reds are in a year of transition with Steer eyeing a role as the regular third baseman. Long-term, he’ll need to contend with the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain – whichever among those doesn’t take over at shortstop. Steer is considered a well-rounded hitter with a feel for contact, above-average plate discipline, and an ability to pop mistakes. The cozy confines of Great American Ballpark should help his power production. One question he’ll need to answer relates to his consistency of contact quality. In a 108-plate appearance trial last season, Steer posted an 84.7-mph average and 104.4-mph max exit velocity, which were well below Major League average.

Three More

George Valera, CLE (22): After managing a league-average batting line at Triple-A last season, Valera is on pace to debut at some point in 2023. He won’t be making the Opening Day roster due to a recent hamate injury. Such injuries are hard to predict, as the recovery is speedy in some cases, but some players are left with lesser bat control for weeks or months after returning. Occasionally, as with Alex Kirilloff, a secondary issue can linger indefinitely.

Kyle Stowers, BAL (25): Currently in the outfield and designated hitter mix for Baltimore, Stowers has a brief window to cement a role as a righty-masher before a flood of high-ceiling prospects joins the roster. Stowers is patient, strikeout-prone, and powerful, rendering him a Three True Outcomes option. Such hitters are volatile as they’re heavily reliant on hitting home runs at just the right time.

Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (23): General manager Mike Elias reiterated his belief that Rodriguez will make the Opening Day rotation. There’s still the messy part of actually navigating Spring Training, especially since Rodriguez’s stuff had declined at last look, though he was returning from a lat injury at the time. Even the September version of Rodriguez looked like a future rotation mainstay.

Jesus Luzardo Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins

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Left-hander Jesus Luzardo has won his arbitration hearing against the Marlins, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  The arbiter’s ruling means that Luzardo will earn his desired $2.45MM salary in 2023, rather than the Marlins’ submitted figure of $2.1MM.

Luzardo becomes the second Miami player (and the second MVP Sports Group client) to win an arb hearing in as many days, after Luis Arraez was victorious Thursday in his bid to earn a larger salary.  Jon Berti is also slated for a hearing in the coming days, unless he and the Marlins agree ahead of time on a contract to avoid arbitration.

This is the first of four trips through the arb process for Luzardo, as a Super Two player.  The extra year of arbitration eligibility makes this hearing decision a particularly nice result for Luzardo, since the $2.45MM provides a higher starting platform for his future earnings.  Both figures from Luzardo and the Marlins were above the $2MM projection of Matt Swartz’s arbitration model.

One of baseball’s best pitching prospects during his time in the Athletics’ farm system, Luzardo made his MLB debut in 2019, and then finished eighth in AL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2020 when he posted a 4.12 ERA over 59 innings in the shortened season.  Just when it seemed like Luzardo was going to be Oakland’s next building block, however, he struggled badly at both the Major League and Triple-A levels in 2021, and also missed time with a fractured pinkie finger.

With the A’s vying for a playoff berth (and facing an imminent fire sale that offseason), Luzardo was dealt to the Marlins in a one-for-one trade for Starling Marte at the deadline.  As well as Marte played in his brief time in Oakland, it wasn’t enough to get the Athletics into the postseason, while the Marlins picked up a controllable and talented arm who already looks to have benefited from the change of scenery.

Luzardo didn’t pitch well for Miami during the remainder of the 2021 campaign, but then posted a 3.32 ERA and a strong 30% strikeout rate over 100 1/3 innings in his first full season as a Marlin.  The southpaw’s 2022 performance wasn’t without some hiccups, however, as his 8.8% walk rate was below average and he spent over two months on the 60-day injured list due to a forearm strain.  Fortunately, Luzardo returned from that worrisome injury in good form, posting a 3.03 ERA over his final 12 starts and 71 1/3 innings of the season.

Some more trade rumors swirled around Luzardo this winter, as the Marlins were openly looking to move one of their starters (except Sandy Alcantara or top prospect Eury Perez) in exchange for a hitting upgrade.  Luzardo was reportedly floated to the Mets in a possible offer involving Brett Baty, though ultimately, Pablo Lopez ended up being the starter on the move, as Miami sent Lopez to the Twins as part of the four-player trade that brought Arraez onto the roster.  With Lopez now gone, the Marlins are counting on Luzardo to take another step forward, and perhaps even establish himself as the rotation’s number two pitcher.

Latest On Pirates, Bryan Reynolds

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Perhaps the biggest offseason storyline in Pittsburgh has been the saga involving center fielder Bryan Reynolds. The All-Star outfielder requested a trade after extension talks between his camp and the Bucs fizzled out in December. Reports suggested the Pirates had offered more than the $70MM they guaranteed Ke’Bryan Hayes but the specific numbers under discussion had been unclear.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post now reports Pittsburgh had put forth a six-year offer that would’ve guaranteed $76MM. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported last month the sides had been roughly $50MM apart in negotiations, suggesting Reynolds’ camp was seeking somewhere around $126MM.

The 28-year-old Reynolds has between three and four years of big league service. He’s set to make $6.75MM for the upcoming season and will be eligible for arbitration twice more before qualifying for free agency after the 2025 campaign. Sean Murphy, who’s also 28 and in the same service bucket, inked a six-year, $73MM extension with the Braves in December. Pittsburgh’s offer was right in that range, making for an interesting comparison point.

It’s fair to debate which of Murphy or Reynolds is the better player. The Atlanta catcher is coming off a .250/.332/.426 line in a pitcher-friendly environment in Oakland. That brought his career line up to .236/.326/.429 in 1260 plate appearances, offense that’s 16 percentage points above league average as measured by wRC+. Reynolds is a better hitter, owning a career .281/.361/.481 line that rates as 26 points above average. He’s coming off a .262/.345/.461 showing in 2022.

That said, Murphy has the edge on the other side of the ball. He’s among the game’s top few defensive catchers, with two-way production at the position that’s among the best in the league. Reynolds also plays up the middle but rated as a below-average center fielder last season. He’s capable of playing center and likely would be a plus defender in the corner outfield, but that’s less valuable than elite defense behind the dish.

Given the terms of the Murphy extension, Pittsburgh’s reported offer to Reynolds is defensible. Yet Reynolds had an edge over Murphy in earning power during their arbitration seasons, with Murphy’s originally projected $3.5MM arb salary for 2023 more than $3MM below what Reynolds will make. That difference — attributable both to Reynolds’ gaudier offensive counting stats and qualification for early arbitration last offseason as a Super Two player — would’ve likely held or compounded over the next two years if both players had gone year-by-year through that process. That’s because a player’s arbitration salaries are generally designed to escalate relative to the prior year’s figure.

Freddie Freeman holds the record for the largest extension among players in the 3-4 year service bucket. The first baseman signed an eight-year, $135MM pact with the Braves nine years ago. Whether Reynolds’ camp was seeking to beat that number or merely approach it isn’t clear, though the reported gap in negotiations suggestions they were well closer to that figure than to the $76MM the Pirates had put on the table. While Reynolds’ camp could argue that’s a dated precedent, Freeman represented a safer long-term bet than Reynolds does. Freeman was nearly four years younger at the time of his deal and coming off a .319/.396/.501 showing in 2013 that rivals Reynolds’ career-best season (.302/.390/.522) from 2021.

Once Reynolds rejected the Bucs’ offer and registered his trade request, most public attention turned to the possibility of him changing teams. However, Heyman writes Pittsburgh continues to have interest in negotiating an extension. There’s no indication of any plans to reopen talks, nor is it known if Reynolds’ camp would even be open to doing so at this point, but the team’s continued desire for a long-term deal supports the numerous reports of an astronomical ask from other teams in trade discussions.

The Rangers, Marlins, Yankees, Rockies, Braves and Red Sox have all been at least loosely linked to Reynolds at points this offseason. All six of those clubs still has some level of uncertainty in its outfield. Heyman writes Miami, in particular, has been among the most aggressive suitors — the continuation of longstanding interest on the Fish’s part that dates back at least to last winter.

The Marlins are planning to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field after acquiring Luis Arraez to man second base. That could diminish any desire to meet Pittsburgh’s ask, though there’s still room to upgrade a left field mix likely to consist of some combination of Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday. A Reynolds trade this offseason still appears a long shot, however, with no indication the Pirates plan to lower their demands as the start of Spring Training approaches.

Luis Arraez Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins

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Newly acquired infielder Luis Arraez has won an arbitration hearing against the Marlins, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The MVP Sports Group client will be paid $6.1MM rather than the $5MM figure originally submitted by his now-former team, the Twins.

Miami acquired Arraez, 25, in the trade that sent right-hander Pablo Lopez, top prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio to Minnesota last month. His win in arb hearing comes on the heels of a .316/.375/.420 batting line that netted him an American League batting title in 2022. Arraez notched career-highs in games played (144), plate appearances (603), doubles (31) and homers (8) this past season.

All of that surely factored into his win over his new team, and he’ll now receive a 187% raise over last year’s $2.125MM salary. This was the infielder’s second trip through arbitration as a Super Two player, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible two more times before reaching free agency after the 2025 season.

The Marlins acquired Arraez in something of a high-risk gambit, hoping that his improved offense will offset the inherent defensive downgrade of swapping him in at second base and moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field. That’s not to suggest Chisholm can’t be a solid center field — he certainly has the tools and athleticism to handle the position — but he’s been a plus defender at second base in his career while Arraez has been below-average. And, Chisholm will now have to learn a new position on the fly. It’s a move that carries risk, but there’s no denying that Miami’s lineup looks deeper with Arraez hitting at or near the top than it did previously.

With Arraez’s salary now set, the Marlins project for a payroll in the roughly $103MM range, per Roster Resource. That still has a bit of room to change even without further additions, as the Fish still have two pending arbitration cases. Utilityman Jon Berti and left-hander Jesus Luzardo both exchanged figures with the club. Berti filed a $2.3MM figure to the team’s $1.9MM submission, while Luzardo came in at $2.45MM to the Marlins’ $2.1MM. Those are trivial sums to any team in the grand scheme of things, but as we’ve explored at MLBTR in the past, the battle over those sums is more about managing salaries years down the road — even for future classes of players, as arbitration is a precedent-based system — rather than present-day savings.

Red Sox, Marlins Swap Matt Barnes For Richard Bleier

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The Red Sox and Marlins swapped relievers Monday afternoon, with righty Matt Barnes dealt to Miami for southpaw Richard Bleier. Boston is also reportedly sending a little more than $5.5MM in cash in the deal to make the transaction nearly cash-neutral.

Barnes, 32, was designated for assignment by the Red Sox last week following the completion of a one-year, $7MM agreement with outfielder Adam Duvall. He served as Boston’s primary closer in 2021, earning a team-leading 24 saves. The 2021 campaign, however, was something of a tale of two seasons for Barnes. He dominated to the tune of a 2.25 ERA and a 42% strikeout rate through Aug. 4. Barnes was impressive enough that the Sox inked him to a two-year, $18.75MM extension in early July.

Over the final two months of the 2022 season, however, Barnes not only struggled but melted down in catastrophic fashion. He pitched just 10 2/3 innings from Aug. 5 onward, yielding a dozen runs on 17 hits and nine walks with 16 strikeouts along the way. It was a calamitous end to a what had begun as one of the best seasons among all Major League relievers.

Barnes hoped to right the ship in 2022 but promptly lost the closer’s job early in the year when he stumbled to a 7.94 ERA through the end of May.  The right-hander was always going to be much lower among the team’s high-leverage considerations in 2023, following the December additions of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin — a pair of moves that was in large part necessitated by Barnes’ struggles.

Nonetheless, it’s worth pointing out that Barnes finished on a high note that likely intrigued Miami and other clubs. He was on the injured list from early June through early August due to shoulder inflammation, and upon returning, he looked much more like the Barnes of old. Beginning on Aug. 4 — the same point at which he began to struggle a year prior — Barnes pitched 22 2/3 innings of 1.59 ERA ball and picked up four saves. His 21.1% strikeout rate was half that of his dominant 2021 form, but it was still an encouraging note on which to end the season.

Barnes might eventually get a fresh chance to carve out some save opportunities in Miami, though Dylan Floro is the current projected frontrunner for that gig. Floro worked to a 3.02 ERA across 53 2/3 innings with the Marlins in 2022, and he has successfully converted 25 save attempts over the last two years. Barnes tallied only eight saves in 2022 and finished with a 4.31 ERA in 39 2/3 frames. He’ll add quite a bit more bat-missing potential to a team that ranked 13th among MLB clubs with a 24% strikeout rate from its relief corps in 2022, though the downside is obvious.

Bleier, meanwhile, can fill the Sox’s need for left-handed bullpen help, even as he enters his age-36 season. The veteran southpaw has registered a 3.09 ERA in 125 1/3 innings since the beginning of 2020, and he’s held left-handed batters to a .225/.260/.313 slash line since he first reached the major leagues with the Yankees in 2016. Boston traded lefty Josh Taylor to the Royals in exchange for Adalberto Mondesi, sent veteran Jake Diekman (signed through 2023) to the White Sox at last year’s trade deadline and lost Darwinzon Hernandez to the Orioles via waivers earlier this offseason — all of which had thinned out the team’s left-handed depth in the ’pen.

They’ll get some quality left-handed innings out of Bleier, although despite his strong track record there are some red flags of note. The soft-tossing southpaw has never missed many bats, but last year’s 14.4% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2019. Bleier has, in the past, offset his lack of whiffs with enormous ground-ball rates. However, while last year’s 52.5% mark was strong relative to the league-average, it was nowhere close to the 63.5% career mark he carried into the 2022 season. Bleier has also regularly avoided hard contact, but last year’s 89.6 mph exit velocity and 40.8% hard-hit rate were both his worst showings since the aforementioned 2016 debut.

Barnes will make $7.5MM in 2023 and is due at least a $2.25MM buyout on a 2024 club option valued at $8MM. Bleier is due $3.25MM for the upcoming season and has a $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout for next year. Barnes is guaranteed $9.75MM from here on out while Bleier will make at least $3.75MM. The Sox are covering the bulk of that $6MM gap with the $5.5MM+ cash consideration.

The Sox will save a minuscule amount of money and bring in a middle reliever with a solid overall track record and some particularly encouraging numbers against fellow lefties — even if Bleier comes with some potential areas of concern. That he can be controlled through 2024 via that affordable $3.75MM option is icing on the cake.

As for the Marlins, they’ll add more late-inning upside to their bullpen with this swap at almost no additional cost. Fans may bristle at shipping out the reliever with better surface-level numbers for what amounts to a Barnes reclamation project, but the Fish are willing to gamble on the younger, harder-throwing Barnes in hopes of unlocking a high-leverage reliever who can be controlled affordably through the 2024 season via that $8MM option. And, if Barnes is indeed able to round back into form, he’ll give Miami an interesting arm to put on the market this summer if they’re decisively out of postseason contention.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were acquiring Barnes. Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported that Boston was acquiring Bleier in return. Jordan McPherson of the Herald was first to relay that Miami was receiving cash considerations, which Mish pegged in the $5MM range. Chris Coitllo of MassLive was first to report the cash involved was a little above $5.5MM.

Quick Hits: Stephenson, Meneses, Oakland

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Tyler Stephenson was one of the bright spots of a tepid Reds offense that contributed to them finishing 62-100 and securing their first 100-loss season since 1982. The trouble was the Reds only called upon Stephenson in 50 games last year, and getting a full season out of their young catcher will be a huge boost to their lineup in 2023 and beyond.

As Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports, the Reds are looking to utilize Stephenson in 140-150 games in 2023, but the majority of those appearances could come at designated hitter to try and protect his body from the rigors of catching. He did, after all, hit .319/.372/.482 with six home runs across 183 plate appearances so it’s no surprise that the Reds are trying to figure out the best way to get a full season’s worth of that offense.

The Reds have signed Curt Casali and Luke Maile to their roster and plan to carry three catchers throughout 2023, and Nightengale writes that the team could look to use Stephenson as a catcher twice a week, which would equate to 54 games over the course of the season, with Casali and Maile handling the rest.

Here’s some more bits and pieces from around baseball:

  • Joey Meneses was a revelation for the rebuilding Nationals in 2022, slashing .324/.367/.563 with 13 home runs over 240 plate appearances in his age-30 rookie campaign. As the Talk Nats podcast revealed, the Nats tried to sign Meneses after the 2019 season but he opted to go to Japan instead. At the time, Japan was likely a far more financially appealing option for Meneses given he would’ve been looking at another minor league deal had he stayed in the States.
  • The A’s are planning to use Jesus Aguilar at both first base and designated hitter in 2023, general manager David Forst told reporters, including Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Aguilar appeared in 63 games at first and 60 at DH last year for the Marlins and Orioles, and it seems likely he’ll have a similar split this year. The 32-year-old had a disappointing 2022, slashing just .235/.281/.379 with 16 home runs over 507 plate appearances. He’d been a productive hitter for a few years prior though, and that was enough for Oakland to give him a one-year, $3MM deal for 2023. The rebuilding A’s will surely be hoping for a rebound at the plate so Aguilar can turn himself into a valuable trade chip at the deadline.
  • Sticking with the A’s, and Forst says Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian have both progressed well in their rehab and should be ready for spring training. “I think it’s reasonable to expect both guys to be ready to go,” Forst said (Twitter link). Both players figure to be part of Oakland’s rotation this year. Blackburn, 29, pitched in 21 games last year and worked to a 4.28 ERA over 111 1/3 innings, striking out batters at a 19.1% clip against a 6.4% walk rate. He was a productive pitcher for the first three months of the season and earned his first All Star game callup. He was shelled for 21 runs over 14 1/3 innings while pitching through pain in his pitching hand before he ultimately went on the injured list. That pain ballooned out his ERA a bit and wound up ending his season, so it’ll be interesting to see if Blackburn can rediscover his early season form in 2023. He’ll earn $1.9MM in his first year of arbitration. Kaprielian threw 134 innings of 4.23 ERA ball in 2022, but underwent shoulder surgery in the off-season to repair his AC joint. His rotation spot is probably a little less secure than Blackburn’s, but the trade of Cole Irvin opens up another spot and if healthy he seems likely to at least start the year in the rotation alongside Blackburn, Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami.

Marlins Outright Daniel Castano

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Left-hander Daniel Castano went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, the team announced Thursday. Castano, who was designated for assignment to open a roster spot for Johnny Cueto, will be in spring training as a non-roster invitee.

Acquired alongside Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and Magneuris Sierra in the lopsided trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, the now-28-year-old Castano has appeared with the Marlins in each of the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.89 ERA over 85 2/3 innings of big league work. However, that ERA has been accompanied by a 12% strikeout rate that ranks as the lowest in MLB dating back to his debut (min. 80 innings pitched).

Castano has strong command, evidenced by a 7.5% walk rate, and he’s avoided hard contact nicely, yielding just an 87.6 mph average exit velocity, a 7% barrel rate and a 35.9% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Paired with a solid 44.7% ground-ball rate, he’s managed to find some success even in spite of his lack of punchouts — although fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.86) and SIERA (5.28) feel he’s had his share of good fortune to arrive at that much stronger earned run average.

The addition of Cueto bolstered the Marlins’ rotation depth, although their subsequent trade of Pablo Lopez to the Twins thinned it back out. As such, the Marlins are surely happy to keep Castano in the organization. If he doesn’t earn a spot on the big league roster this spring, he’ll head to Jacksonville and give the club some experienced depth to call on in the event of an injury. While in Triple-A, he can continue to hone the new cutter that he debuted in 2022 — a pitch that emerged as his primary offering this past season. Castano found good success with the pitch in the minors (26.4% strikeout rate), but those new missed bats didn’t carry over to the MLB level for him this past season (12.8% strikeout rate).

Marlins Sign Enrique Burgos To Minor League Deal

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The Marlins announced that reliever Enrique Burgos has signed a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation. The 32-year-old makes it back to the affiliated ranks for the first time since he was released by the Tigers in March 2018.

Burgos, a Panama native, has some previous MLB experience. He was a frequent middle relief option for the Diamondbacks from 2015-16, combining for 73 appearances. Through 68 1/3 innings, the righty posted a 5.27 ERA with a strong 27.4% strikeout rate offset by a 12.7% walk percentage. While Burgos averaged north of 96 MPH on his fastball and missed plenty of bats, his inconsistent control and an elevated .339 batting average on balls in play pushed him off the roster.

A brief stint in the Atlanta organization was spent entirely at Triple-A in 2017. After failing to crack the Detroit roster out of spring camp the following season, Burgos has worked mostly in the Mexican League and winter ball over the past few years (along with a brief stay in the Atlantic League). He struck out 17 against five walks through 15 innings in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, apparently piquing the interest of Marlins’ scouts in the process.

Miami has mostly stood pat with its bullpen this winter. Cole Sulser was lost on waivers to Arizona, while JT Chargois was brought in from the Rays. Rule 5 selection Nic Enright will have to hold a spot or be placed on waivers and subsequently sent back to the Guardians. Dylan Floro, Tanner Scott, Steven Okert and Richard Bleier should have season-opening spots secured. Tommy Nance, Andrew Nardi, Eli Villalobos and Huascar Brazobán could battle for middle relief spots.

Burgos joins Chi Chi González, Geoff Hartlieb and Bryan Hoeing as non-roster invitees with some big league time. Given his lack of recent affiliated experience, the 32-year-old Burgos figures to open the season at Triple-A Jacksonville and will try to earn an MLB call during the season.

Bruce Sherman: Sale Of Marlins Not Under Consideration

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Marlins owner Bruce Sherman released a statement this afternoon reaffirming his commitment to lasting ownership of the franchise.

“The Miami Marlins are not for sale, have not been for sale under my ownership, and will not be for sale in my lifetime. It is irresponsible to report otherwise,” Sherman said (via Jordan McPherson and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). “It is and will continue to be a privilege to own this great organization. I look forward to seeing our loyal fans at Opening Day on March 30.”

The announcement comes in response to a column from the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday morning. That report cited MLB sources suggesting the Miami organization could hit the market at some point soon. There’d been no previous indication of the Marlins potentially changing hands, and Sherman’s forceful pushback represents a firm declaration that won’t happen.

Sherman made similar sentiments in an interview with the Herald last September. “No, I have never considered selling the team,” he said at the time. “I am more deeply invested in the team’s success now than ever. I’m looking forward to reaching the playoffs, returning the World Series trophy to South Florida, and making this community proud of its hometown team.”

The Marlins are only a few years removed from an ownership change. Jeffrey Loria officially dealt the franchise to the Sherman/Derek Jeter group in October 2017. While Jeter was the higher-profile member of the group, Sherman has been majority owner for the entire time. Jeter departed the organization last offseason.

Upon taking over, the Sherman ownership group cut player payroll. Miami’s season-opening payroll had been at $115MM during the final year of Loria’s ownership, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Under Sherman’s ownership, the franchise hasn’t topped $100MM in player spending. That’s likely set to change this year, with Roster Resource projecting their spending around $103MM.

Marlins, Devin Smeltzer Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Marlins are in agreement with left-hander Devin Smeltzer on a minor league deal, reports Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (Twitter link). The deal, which contains a non-roster invitation to Spring Training, would pay the ISE Baseball client at a $1MM rate for any time spent in the majors.

Smeltzer has pitched in the majors in each of the past four seasons with the Twins. He’s started 19 of 34 career outings, tallying 140 innings of 3.99 ERA ball at the highest level. Roughly half of that experience came last year, when he was tabbed for 12 starts and a trio of relief appearances that totaled 70 1/3 frames. Smeltzer pitched to a solid 3.71 ERA but without many whiffs or ground balls.

The 27-year-old struck out 13.9% of opponents on a modest 7.4% swinging strike rate. The lack of missed bats isn’t all that surprising for a pitcher who averaged 89.5 MPH on his fastball. Smeltzer compensates for his subpar velocity with strong control. He walked only 6.6% of opposing hitters last season and has doled out free passes at just a 6.4% clip for his MLB career. It was a similar story with Triple-A St. Paul, where he posted a 6.9% walk percentage against a better but hardly overwhelming 20.3% strikeout rate.

Smeltzer’s solid run prevention at the MLB level would’ve been hard to replicate. He benefited from a .252 batting average on balls in play while stranding nearly 83% of the baserunners he allowed. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA both pegged his work more in the 5.00 range than the sub-4.00 territory he actually managed, and the Twins ran him through outright waivers at the end of the season. Upon clearing, he qualified for minor league free agency.

The former fifth-round pick adds an experienced control specialist to the upper levels of the Miami organization. He owns a 4.40 ERA through parts of five minor league campaigns, walking just 5.5% of opponents along the way. He has experience both starting and working multiple innings out of the bullpen and could factor into either role at some point in 2023. Miami has a deep rotation mix even after trading Pablo López last week, so it seems likely Smeltzer will open the season with Triple-A Jacksonville. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning the Marlins would have to keep him in the majors or offer him to other teams via trade or waivers if he earns an MLB call at any point.

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