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Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners added some recognizable veterans to a roster that will soon see some of baseball’s top prospects surface in the Majors. The “reimagining” phase appears to be nearing its conclusion.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Entering the offseason, the Mariners looked as though they had the potential to spend more than some rival clubs. Seattle carried a 2021 payroll projection of just over $70MM — a number that would dip all the way to $7.15MM in 2022. With many clubs around the league not expected to spend at all, an opportunistic approach seemed plausible.

As it turned out, the Mariners front office was also reportedly limited in its dealings by an ownership group reeling from last year’s lost revenues. The Mariners still spent some money, but the majority of their investments were on affordable one-year pacts. Exceptions included affordable two-year deals for KBO returnee Chris Flexen and Tommy John rehabber Ken Giles.

Flexen, guaranteed a total of $4.75MM on the deal, tossed 116 1/3 frames of 3.01 ERA/2.74 FIP ball in South Korea last year, notching impressive strikeout and walk percentages (28.1 and 6.4, respectively). Those 116 1/3 innings are 30 more than any big league pitcher threw in 2020’s shortened slate of games, so his workload will be less of a concern than that of the Mariners’ other starters. Giles, meanwhile, won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer, but he’ll be expected to hold down a key bullpen role in 2022.

The most notable addition to the pitching staff, of course, was James Paxton, who returns to Seattle after spending two years in the Bronx. Paxton will slot into the rotation alongside the pitcher he was traded for, lefty Justus Sheffield. The 32-year-old Paxton missed most of the 2020 season as he battled injuries — February back surgery and an August forearm strain. He pitched with greatly diminished velocity in 2020, but Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said after signing Paxton that “Big Maple” had recovered the lost zip on his heater by the time he threw for scouts over the winter.

A healthy Paxton is the Mariners’ best starter — probably one of the best 20 or so starters in the game. At a year and $8.5MM, he’s an affordable and sensible gamble for Seattle even after last year’s injuries. It seems that a return to the Mariners was always something of a best-case scenario for Paxton; he was reported at multiple points to be seeking more than the $11MM that fellow injured ace Corey Kluber received from the Yankees in free agency, but Dipoto said after the contract was completed that Paxton gave his club a “some form of hometown discount,” adding that he “wanted to be a Mariner” again.

With Paxton and Flexen now penciled in as part of what’s expected to again be a six-man rotation, the Mariners have a fairly interesting starting staff. Marco Gonzales has been nothing but solid over the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.85 ERA in 74 starts. Sheffield was knocked around early in 2020, but his final eight starts looked an awful lot like the solid starter he’s long been projected to become: 47 1/3 innings, 3.58 ERA/3.17 FIP, 50.6 percent grounder rate, 20.7 strikeout rate, 8.6 walk rate.

The 2021 season will be a critical one for 29-year-old southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, whose contract allows the Mariners to extend him for four years and $66MM at season’s end. If the team declines to do so, he can exercise a $13MM player option. Based on Kikuchi’s track record, it’s unlikely that the M’s would pick up their end of that deal, but the lefty showed some interesting signs in 2020. His average fastball spiked from 92.9 mph in 2019 to 95.2 mph in 2020, while his strikeout and ground-ball rates soared by eight percent apiece. Kikuchi’s walk rate rose from 6.9 percent to 10.3 percent, which is a notable red flag, but if he can get back to his previous control while maintaining some of the other positive gains, he could yet be a quality big league starter.

Right-hander Justin Dunn, meanwhile, outlasted Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome in the spring battle for the sixth starter’s role. While he’s yet to find much big league success, Dunn was a top 100 prospect when the Mariners acquired him from the Mets, and he’s still just 25 years old. He could very well just be keeping a spot warm for top prospect Logan Gilbert, but Dunn has at least one more chance to show he can stick in the rotation.

As is the case in the rotation, there are some new faces in the bullpen after Dipoto and his staff brought in a trio of inexpensive relievers. Former Mets top prospect Rafael Montero had a resurgence in the Rangers bullpen over the past two seasons, pitching to a 3.09 ERA with a strong 28.6 percent strikeout rate and a terrific 5.9 percent walk rate.

Montero went 8-for-8 in save attempts with Texas last year and will close games for the Mariners in 2021 following a trade that sent righty Jose Corniell to the Rangers. Corniell received the largest bonus given out by the Mariners in the 2019-20 international free agent class ($630K), but he’s yet to play a pro game. The Mariners will also send a PTBNL to Texas to complete this deal at some point in the coming months, but for two years of control over Montero, the price tag seems reasonable for now. Corniell currently ranks as the Rangers’ No. 30 prospect at Baseball America.

Seattle also re-signed righty Kendall Graveman to a one-year deal and will put him straight into the bullpen role in which he thrived last year. The Mariners initially tried out the former A’s starter in their rotation before he went down to an injury. When he returned in September, Graveman went to the ’pen and saw his average sinker velocity jump from a career 93.2 mph to 96.3 mph. He didn’t miss many bats but posted a sizable 55.2 percent grounder rate with strong control. For a $1.25MM base salary with incentives to take the deal to $3.5MM, the Mariners will see if he can sustain that output.

Hard-throwing righty Keynan Middleton gives the Mariners another former division rival to count among its setup corps. The Angels non-tendered Middleton despite having three years of control remaining and an arbitration projection around $1MM. The 27-year-old missed most of 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery early in the ’18 campaign, but when he was healthy he looked like a solid late-inning option in Anaheim. From 2017-18, he logged a 3.43 ERA and 3.73 SIERA while punching out a quarter of his opponents. There was some improvement needed, but for a young pitcher with a heater that averaged 97 mph, the results were encouraging. He was cut loose despite regaining that velocity in 2020, and the Mariners will now hope to benefit.

There won’t be many new faces in the Seattle batting order. The Mariners didn’t add any position players over the winter, due in no small part to the growing number of prospects they’re seeing rise to the big league ranks. Evan White struggled to make contact in 2020, but when he did he was among the league leaders in exit velocity. Strikeouts were never a major issue for him in the minors, either, and he won a Gold Glove at first base in his rookie season, so expect to see plenty more of him.

Kyle Seager returns across the diamond, and the Mariners had a second Gold Glover at short in J.P. Crawford, so he’s locked in there. Dylan Moore gets the first look at second base after a breakout 2020, but Shed Long Jr. will also be seeking a rebound after playing through a stress reaction in his tibia last year. Behind the plate, the Mariners will lean on Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens, both of whom have shown they can provide solid offense. Catching prospect Cal Raleigh will continue to rise through the upper minors as well. Ty France, acquired from the Padres alongside Torrens, figures to see plenty of work at DH and also fill around the diamond. He’s done nothing but rake in Triple-A, the big leagues, and Spring Training. The Mariners are aiming to get him 500-plus plate appearances between DH and spelling White, Seager and Moore.

Things get more interesting in the outfield. In right field, the Mariners are set to welcome back Mitch Haniger after an arduous two years of rehabbing a chain reaction of fluke injuries that began with a ruptured testicle after a woefully placed foul ball. Now 30 years old, the 2018 All-Star will look to round back into form after missing the past season and a half. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis opened the year on the IL, clearing a path for top prospect Taylor Trammell to make his debut in center. Lewis isn’t expected to be out long, so the Mariners could soon see an alignment of Trammell, Lewis and Haniger.

Of course, all eyes are on uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic, who was the subject of numerous headlines after now-former Mariners CEO Kevin Mather blatantly indicated the organization planned to hold him in the minors until late April. The words “service time” weren’t directly used, but the implication was clear, particularly given that Mather also revealed in that Q&A with his rotary club members that Kelenic rejected a contract extension prior to the 2020 season.

Kelenic and agent Brodie Scoffield told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in the aftermath of the interview that the organization made clear to him at multiple points that he would’ve made his MLB debut in 2020 had he signed the extension offer — a six-year pact with a trio of club options to buy out three free-agent seasons. While Scoffield told MLBTR at the time that Kelenic is still open to extension offers, a spotlight has been shined on the situation. Kelenic missed time this spring with a minor knee sprain, which made it easier for the Mariners to send him down to begin the year. But if he’s called up in late April just as Mather said he would be, the organization will have a hard time claiming that it was a strictly development-driven decision to send him out in the first place. Kelenic went 6-for-20 with two doubles, two homers, four walks and just one strikeout in 25 spring plate appearances.

To be clear, the majority of big league clubs play service time games. It’s not that the Mariners’ plan was necessarily nefarious or previously unheard of — far from it — but such matters simply aren’t discussed publicly, as teams don’t want to give players and their agents any fuel for possible grievance filings. Mather’s indication that late-April promotions were likely not only for Kelenic but the aforementioned Gilbert broke the norm of making such manipulation a poorly kept but still-unspoken “secret.”

Had Mather’s service-time comments been the only questionable moments in his Q&A, the fallout probably wouldn’t have been so great. But he also made disparaging comments about foreign players’ English skills (or lack thereof), lamented having to pay translators and rattled off various negative comments about established players on the big league roster. It wasn’t much of a surprise when Mather resigned from his post in the days after the interview, and chairman John Stanton revealed later that Mather also gave up the minority stake in the club he received when initially being elevated to CEO.

Turning back to the on-field product, the Mariners very much have the look of a team that is on the rise. It’s a matter of “when,” not “if” Kelenic makes his Major League debut in 2021. Fellow outfield wunderkind Julio Rodriguez isn’t too far behind him, and we’re already getting our first look at Trammell. Gilbert is the first in a growing line of high-end pitching prospects funneling through the system, with recent first-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock both on the horizon.

Each of those prospects could be in the big leagues before midseason 2022, and as previously noted, the Mariners’ long-term payroll is squeaky clean. They have just $15.45MM in guaranteed salary committed in 2022 (not including the $3.75MM they owe the Mets as part of the Robinson Cano deal).

Considering the Mariners had a franchise-record $158MM payroll in 2018 and averaged a hefty $150.25MM payroll from 2016-19, a spending spree during next year’s free agent mega-class seems eminently plausible. Contending in 2021 is long shot but not impossible with enough breaks from their young big leaguers. However, even if the Mariners extend a two-decade playoff drought this season, the future in Seattle is brighter than it’s been in quite some time.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The biggest free agent contract of the offseason (and the biggest contract in franchise history) was the highlight of a very busy winter for the Blue Jays.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

“The Blue Jays have shown interest in…” were the seven most popular words on MLB Trade Rumors over the last five months, as for the second straight offseason, the Jays at least checked in on seemingly every free agent or trade candidate on the market.  This aggression stood out in a winter marked by teams cutting payroll or trying to stand pat with their spending, as Toronto left no doubt that it was looking to augment its young core with some veteran upgrades.

This doesn’t mean the Jays went overboard, however.  Besides a quick re-signing of starter Robbie Ray soon after the free agent period opened, the Blue Jays didn’t start swinging any major moves until January.  The long wait could be attributed to some bigger-picture factors — all teams were being somewhat cautious until more information was available about the status of the pandemic and the 2021 season, and players and agents were being cautious about signing contracts until they had a full grasp of the potential market of suitors.

In the Blue Jays’ case, however, they faced a problem unique to MLB’s only Canadian team.  In essence, the Jays’ usual free agent pitch went from convincing players to play in Canada to convincing players to play in multiple minor league ballparks in the United States and (potentially) in Canada in 2021.  As manager Charlie Montoyo noted in December, “the No. 1 question is if we’re going to play in Toronto.  That’s rightly so.  Our answer is, ’Yeah, we’re hoping so.’ ”

As the 2021 season begins, the team’s answer is still TBD….as in, Toronto/Buffalo/Dunedin.  The Jays will play home games at their spring site in Dunedin through at least the end of May, with team president/CEO Mark Shapiro recently suggesting that the club will then shift games to Sahlen Field in Buffalo in June to avoid playing outdoors in the Florida summer.  Depending on the pandemic and the approval of Canadian government and health officials, the best-case scenario for the Jays would see them return to Rogers Centre at some point in July.

Amidst this uncertainty, the Jays’ willingness to spend ultimately allowed them to land a couple of major targets.  George Springer’s six-year, $150MM contract easily topped the list of free agent contracts in total dollars (well ahead of J.T. Realmuto’s five-year, $115.5MM pact with the Phillies) and ranked second in average annual value, behind Trevor Bauer’s three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers.  Marcus Semien wasn’t far behind on the AAV list, as his $18MM salary is just shy of the cost of the qualifying offer that the Athletics chose to not issue to their longtime shortstop.

The Mets were Toronto’s chief competition for Springer, as New York reportedly floated a six-year deal in the $120MM-$125MM range for the outfielder’s services before the Jays made the higher bid.  It was a price Toronto was willing to pay to land a proven performer in both the regular season and postseason.

There is undoubtedly risk in making a six-year commitment to a player who is already 31 years old, and Springer has already hit a minor setback in the form of a Grade 2 oblique injury that will require an IL trip.  Still, there isn’t much statistical evidence that Springer is slowing down as a top-level offensive performer, and his defensive numbers are still solid enough that the Blue Jays can count on him in center field for at least a few of those six years.  And, for the inevitable questions about Springer and the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, his career numbers on the road are actually better than his career numbers in Houston.

While multiple teams were interested in Semien, his market was more complicated.  Following a spectacular 2019 season, Semien’s numbers dropped off over 236 regular-season plate appearances in 2020, though he did start to heat up at the end of the season and through the Athletics’ postseason run.  The number of other star shortstops available as free agents and trade candidates both this offseason and next offseason also seemingly made teams wary of a big commitment to Semien, and multiple clubs explored moving him off of shortstop entirely.

As it turned out, Semien will indeed take a change of position, as he will be Toronto’s new regular at second base.  He hasn’t played the keystone since the 2014 season, though Semien is a solid enough defender at shortstop that there isn’t much doubt he can handle the new role.  With Semien at second base, the Blue Jays won’t interrupt Bo Bichette’s development as the everyday shortstop — an option the Jays at least considered, as they too looked at the broader picture of the shortstop market.

Semien’s $18MM price tag again represented an outbid of the market for the Jays, though it hardly counts as an onerous investment for a player who is undoubtedly motivated to bounce back from 2020 and prove himself worthy of a big multi-year contract.  If the qualifying offer system isn’t altered once the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in December, the Jays are eligible to issue a QO to Semien next offseason, putting Toronto in line for a compensatory draft pick if Semien rejects the offer and signs elsewhere.

The one-year deal for Semien also continued the Jays’ winter strategy of not quite going all-in on new acquisitions, as aggressive as the team was in pursuing talent.  Springer was the lone player signed to a multi-year deal, and he is one of only four Jays — along with Hyun Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — who are officially under contract beyond the 2021 season.  With so many intriguing young players in the pipeline or with only a bit of Major League experience, the Blue Jays are still something of a work in progress.

Giving a multi-year commitment to Semien or another prominent infielder like DJ LeMahieu, for example, would have closed off an infield spot for a team that already has Bichette, Rowdy Tellez, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the big league roster, and top-50 prospects Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans maybe a season away from the Show.  (There was room, though, for another minor league deal with Joe Panik, who will return as the club’s chief utility infielder.)

Likewise, the Blue Jays had some interest in Realmuto, but he was a luxury on a team that already had Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and multiple other promising catchers in the minors.  Springer was targeted in part because the outfield depth chart isn’t quite as crowded, though Grichuk, Gurriel, and Teoscar Hernandez are all on hand for at least the next two seasons (barring a trade) and both Martin and Biggio can also play the outfield.

A similar story applied to the pitching staff, as Ray (who will begin this year on the IL with an elbow bruise) was signed to a one-year deal, and trade acquisition Steven Matz is eligible for free agency next winter.  Younger arms like Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, Simeon Woods Richardson and Alek Manoah could start playing larger roles in the Toronto rotation as early as this season, so Ryu remains the only long-term veteran piece of the pitching staff.

The rotation, however, now looms as the Blue Jays’ biggest concern.  This is the flip side of the Jays’ active offseason — when a team is “in on everyone,” it becomes easy to second-guess the moves that they did make.  If Springer or Semien don’t produce, the argument will be made that the Jays should have instead traded for Francisco Lindor, or pushed to sign Realmuto, LeMahieu, Justin Turner, Ha-Seong Kim, or Michael Brantley (who Toronto had seemingly agreed to sign before Brantley decided at the last minute to rejoin the Astros).

One acquisition has unfortunately already backfired on the Jays, as Kirby Yates will miss the season due to Tommy John surgery.  Yates missed most of the 2020 campaign after undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow, and though Yates’ offseason physicals revealed more concerns about his elbow, the Blue Jays still took the risk of a one-year, $5.5MM deal on a reliever who posted elite numbers in 2018-19.

Whiffing on the Yates contract won’t make or break Toronto’s payroll by any means, and with so many other internal bullpen candidates on hand (to say nothing of possible contributions from veterans Tyler Chatwood or David Phelps), it’s possible the Jays might not even miss Yates.  Still, while every other team also decided against picking Brad Hand off the Indians’ waiver wire in October, the Jays’ pass stands out since they already knew they’d have some level of spending capability, and Hand would’ve also represented just a one-year commitment.

While Yates’ season-ending injury is by far the most serious problem, Nate Pearson will begin the season on the IL due to a groin injury, Thomas Hatch is out with elbow inflammation, and Ray will miss at least one start due to a bruised elbow.  The injuries further thin out a pitching mix that is already relying on a lot of youngsters to establish themselves, and a lot of veterans to bounce back.

In Ray, Matz, Tanner Roark, and Ross Stripling, the Jays are putting a significant amount of faith in four pitchers who simply weren’t very good in 2020, though Ray and Matz both impressed this spring in Grapefruit League play.  While walks and homers were always some type of an issue for Ray throughout his career, those issues became dire problems during the southpaw’s disastrous 2020 season, possibly due to an arm-slot change Ray made prior to the year.  For Matz, he stands out as a rebound candidate just by dint of being healthy and getting a change of scenery after over a decade in the Mets organization.

Ryu was excellent in 2020, but as a 34-year-old pitcher with a long injury history, he’ll have to be monitored over the course of a 162-game season.  Pearson is one of the sport’s top prospects, yet with only 18 MLB innings to his name, it may be a tall order to expect him to deliver on his potential this early in his career.  While the additions of Springer and Semien will help a lineup that was already pretty strong, a case can certainly be made that a more proven arm was necessary to bolster the rotation.

In fairness to the Blue Jays front office, it’s not as if they didn’t try.  Sticking to just the top names on the market, Toronto at least had some talks with Bauer, had interest in Jake Odorizzi throughout Odorizzi’s extended free agent stint, and made an offer to Tomoyuki Sugano before Sugano decided to remain in Japan.  Early in the offseason, the Jays’ entire winter could have been reshaped if Kevin Gausman had taken Toronto’s reported three-year in the $40MM range rather than stay with the Giants by accepting their qualifying offer.

The Blue Jays won’t have the luxury of three extra playoff spots to work with as they pursue more October baseball, but there is certainly enough talent here to make a viable run at a wild card berth or the AL East title itself.  And, given how GM Ross Atkins left no stone unturned this winter, it could be that some groundwork was laid for potential in-season moves if the Jays need a boost at the trade deadline.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Oakland A’s

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The reigning AL West champs watched their double-play duo, closer, and left fielder depart in free agency over the winter. The A’s, however, are no stranger to the challenges of retooling on the fly. Oakland may have trouble repeating its .600 win percentage from 2020, but that won’t necessarily preclude the team from repeating in the AL West.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Of all the players set for free agency after the 2020 season, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien was a particularly interesting case. The A’s somewhat surprisingly chose not to extend him a qualifying offer. In doing so, they signaled three things: 1.) They believed Semien might accept the $18.9MM qualifying offer; 2.) They were unwilling to pay him that sum; 3.) They were prepared to enter 2021 with a new shortstop. Ultimately, Semien signed a one-year deal below the QO value to play for the Toronto Blue Jays, and the A’s received nothing in return.

The very same day that Semien’s accord was announced, double-play partner Tommy La Stella signed a three-year deal with the Giants. La Stella’s time in Oakland was brief, but he was critical for the team down the stretch after coming over in a trade with the division-rival Angels. He slashed .289/.369/.423 in 27 regular-season games from the top of manager Bob Melvin’s order. Acquiring that performance came only at the cost of erstwhile top prospect Franklin Barreto. The goal is not to pay for past performance, however, nor for past value, so the A’s said their thank-yous and let La Stella move across the Bay at the reasonable AAV of $6.25MM per season.

At that point in late January, Liam Hendriks had already inked his new deal with the White Sox. Even Robbie Grossman had long since found his new home in Detroit. In Oakland, however, the winter was (again) in danger of being defined by the players lost in free agency. Executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst are as cold-blooded as they come, however. They were no doubt aware that something like, say, not having a middle infield would temporarily leave them in ill-favor with the public, but the end goal was not to have a middle infield in January. The A’s are generally at a disadvantage when it comes to resources, but they had as much time at their disposal as the other 29 teams, and they used it to enact a coherent offseason strategy.

On Feb. 6, the A’s offseason began in earnest. They and another division rival, the Rangers, completed an outside-the-box five-player swap centered on two out-of-favor veterans on hefty contracts. In its most basic form, the trade sent Khris Davis, Jonah Heim, and Dane Acker from the A’s to the Rangers for Elvis Andrus and Aramis Garcia.

For the A’s, this deal enabled them to shift money around. Oakland fell in love with Davis’ light-tower power, but he slumped to an 82 wRC+ over the past two seasons. Davis started only 14 games in the field going back to 2018, so if he doesn’t create value with his bat, he doesn’t create value. And yet, in the second year of a two-year extension signed prior to 2019, Davis would account for almost 20 percent of a payroll that was already without much margin for error. Turning that dead money into two years of a serviceable shortstop may end up as a decent sleight of hand on the A’s part.

Of course, Oakland had to give up more than just Davis. Heim has promise – Fangraphs gives him a 40+ future value score- but he’s also a 25-year-old backup at a position of organizational depth. If Garcia can’t step directly into Heim’s shoes as Sean Murphy’s backup, then Austin Allen can. Allen, though 27 years old, was actually ranked a spot above Heim in Fangraphs’ organizational prospect rankings entering 2020. The A’s are taking on some risk here, as Garcia and Allen profile similarly as bat-first backstops; furthermore, if Murphy goes down for any extended period of time, they might have preferred Heim’s defensive skill set as a long-term stand-in. But if all goes according to plan, Murphy will shoulder the load. In that case, either Garcia or Allen ought to suffice as a backup.

Acker is the true cost of doing business. He’s a durable college arm with a repeatable, clean delivery and a decent chance of making it to the Majors. He’s also a 2020 draft pick who has yet to make his professional debut. The A’s essentially had to tack on a fourth-round pick to make this deal work. All things considered, that’s hardly a backbreaking tax to burden when slashing $9.5MM off the payroll.

The crux of this deal comes down to whether or not you believe in Andrus as a two-year stopgap. His defensive metrics are all over the place, though it won’t hurt to play alongside Matt Chapman. Offensively, Andrus was a 76 wRC+ hitter in both 2018 and 2019. He admits to being slow to adapt to modern analytics at the plate. That makes him an interesting fit in Oakland. If he’s ready to change his approach, maybe the A’s feel they can unlock something for him, though the Coliseum is notoriously tough on right-handed hitters. With a lifetime .098 career ISO and groundball-heavy approach at the plate, he may have trouble hitting any of these new baseballs out of that yard.

For what it’s worth, ZiPS projects Andrus to re-spawn as a 1.2 fWAR player, which is roughly his production in each of 2018 and 2019. It’s probably safest to assume he can be a 1-2 WAR player, which makes his dollar count about right. Whether or not he can sufficiently replace Semien depends on which version of Semien you’re imagining. If it’s the 2019 version that notched 8.9 bWAR/7.6 fWAR, you can forget about it. But if you’re thinking about the 2020 guy who put up numbers that extrapolate over a full season to 1.35 bWAR/3.24 fWAR, well, now we’re getting somewhere. Andrus is not the ideal shortstop, but at $7.25MM per season for two years, he’s a better use of the money than Davis would have been. That’s the calculus that makes this deal work – if it works.

With the money saved, Beane and Forst went on a mini spending spree of their own. They brought back Mike Fiers just hours after the Andrus trade. They essentially replaced Joakim Soria with Sergio Romo on Valentine’s Day, re-signed Yusmeiro Petit five days after that, and capped their bullpen revamp with a big-ish fish in Trevor Rosenthal, whom they signed to a much-deferred one-year, $11MM pact.

Romo provides insurance for the bullpen, as does Fiers for the rotation. Neither hurler is a place to be a bell-cow arm, but they are trustworthy enough to hold the line. On the whole, the A’s free agent class would have been a real get after 2013. Present day, it’s not as splashy as, say, the White Sox, who signed Hendriks, but it could nonetheless be impactful. Rosenthal seemed to put himself back together in 2020 with 11 saves and a 1.90 ERA/2.22 FIP across 23 2/3 innings. He stuff is electric, and his walk rate returned to a palatable 8.8 percent. His 2019 wildness is looking less like decline and more like re-calibration after Tommy John surgery.

Of course, where in most cases we’re willing to throw out 2020’s numbers because of the pandemic, it’s a little convenient to take Rosenthal’s performance as proof of concept. Admittedly, then, there’s risk. Still, Rosenthal has 92 more career saves than Hendriks, he’s less prone to giving up home runs (6.4 percent HR/FB for Rosenthal to 10.2 percent HR/FB for Hendriks), and Rosenthal has a lower career ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. Hendriks outdoes Rosenthal in terms of control, and he does have two insane seasons out of the last two compared to one for Rosenthal.

Put aside all the noise of career numbers and Rosenthal’s messy 2019, and give in to last season’s numbers as the real McCoy just for a second. Rosenthal put up 1.1 bWAR to Hendriks’ 1.3 bWAR. Rosenthal had a 35.2 percent CSW (called strike plus whiff rate) compared to 31.0 percent for Hendriks. Rosenthal finished in the 99th percentile for fastball velocity, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and xwOBA. You barely even have to squint to consider Rosenthal a lateral move at worst (without the long-term financial commitment).

The A’s largely stuck with their internal options to replace La Stella at the keystone. Tony Kemp and Chad Pinder splitting time in a straight platoon is one potential eventuality. To open the season, however, it’s looking like old friend Jed Lowrie will share the middle infield with Andrus in his third tour of duty with the A’s.

The only Major League contract they gave out to a hitter this winter went to Mitch Moreland. The 35-year-old has only once produced more than 1.0 fWAR in a season, which is fairly stunning given that he’s now been in the bigs for 11 years. But he’s trending up over the last three seasons, especially in his specialty department (vs. RHP): 106 to 125 to 146 wRC+ from 2018 to 2020. He has enough glove to insure Matt Olsen at first, but given Olsen’s own glovework, Moreland’s only real job is to rake. In 2020, that’s exactly what Moreland did: .265/.342/.551, 135 wRC+, 10 home runs, a solid 21.1 percent strikeout rate, 9.9 percent walk rate, and .287 ISO.

Cot’s contracts pegs the A’s payroll to be $83.5MM by raw dollars, $100MM on the dot as far as the luxry tax is concerned. They’ll pay out even less than that because Rosenthal will receive just $3MM in 2021. Regardless, the A’s payroll is closer to zero than it is to the first tax threshold of $210MM. They’re about $11MM under their full-scale payroll from 2020, and if they remain at this current level, it’ll be their lowest payroll since 2018. They have occasionally taken on in-season money in the $10MM range, but they’re more likely to add $1MM-3MM, or even further diminish the payroll should things go sour. Oakland excels at identifying its weaknesses and finding reinforcements throughout the season in this way. Jake Lamb, Mike Minor and La Stella were the guys last year, and the A’s will probably look at that class of player again.

To accomplish that slimming of the payroll, Beane and Forst helped themselves with some low-cost additions to fill out the roster. Ka’ai Tom was a Rule 5 Draft selection from the Indians, and he’ll enter the season as their fourth outfielder. Pinder and Kemp are also capable of defending the grass, but Tom does provide left-handed balance to the A’s trio of right-handed starters: Ramon Laureano, Stephen Piscotty, and Mark Canha.

Skeptics might wonder why Tom would be left unprotected by a Cleveland organization that’s perpetually in desperate need of outfielders, and that’s a fair question. He’s undersized at 5’9″, almost 27, and only once ranked in Baseball America’s top 40 Indians’ prospects (No. 31 in 2016). His physical skills in terms of speed and power aren’t immense, but he’s succeeded at every level thus far, including a .298/.370/.564 line (132 wRC+) in 211 plate appearances at Triple-A in 2019.

If Tom is the “overlooked” brand of undervalued asset, former Ray and Dodger Adam Kolarek qualifies as the “specialist.” The southpaw is cost-efficient with four years of control remaining, he limits free passes (6.0 percent walk rate for his career), he gets the ball on the ground at a 62.7 percent clip, and he’s death to lefties, who hit just .176/.217/.248 off him.

The A’s biggest need this offseason might have been health, particularly in the rotation. Oakland’s starting staff can be the backbone of a contender. If Chris Bassitt and Fiers can excel in the Coliseum, so should Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk, Frankie Montas, and Sean Manaea. But health has been an issue, and the A’s will continue to manage the workloads of their young arms as they try to readjust to the slog of a 162-game season.

If you’re of the camp that thinks the A’s took a step back during the winter, it’s not hard to understand why. But the Astros took a step back too, the Angels face many of the same roster questions as usual, and the Mariners and Rangers have a ways to go before closing the gap. There’s reason to hope for a fourth consecutive playoff appearance out of Oakland. If it happens, it will be driven by Melvin’s ability to mix and match and get the most out of an imperfect roster. A return to health for Chapman and breakout seasons on the mound from Luzardo, Montas, and/or Puk wouldn’t hurt either. But those aren’t things you can secure in the offseason.

How would you grade the A’s offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

 

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants revamped their pitching staff with short-term contracts, and while they did a lot of roster-shuffling heading into the 2021 season, they generally stood pat in the big picture to position themselves for the winter of 2021-22.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

San Francisco was one of baseball’s busiest teams this offseason, both in terms of sheer volume of signings, and even in total dollars considering the relative lack of league-wide free agent spending.  Yet once the 2021 season ends, it’s possible that Tommy La Stella and Jake McGee will be the only players remaining from this (modest) spending spree, as the Giants stuck primarily to one-year commitments.

A few of these deals carry some extra term, like Jose Alvarez’s club option or at least one year of additional arbitration control over Matt Wisler, Curt Casali, and John Brebbia.  For the most part, however, the Giants left themselves with the “flexibility” that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi looks for when considering player additions and team payroll.

As it turned out, the Giants’ biggest expenditure of the offseason was one of their very first moves, as Kevin Gausman decided to accept the club’s one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer and remain in the Bay Area.  Gausman received some multi-year offers from the Blue Jays and other teams during his QO consideration period, and also discussed a multi-year arrangement with the Giants before ultimately just accepting the qualifying offer.  If these talks provided any sort of foundation, it wouldn’t be a shock if Gausman and the Giants found common ground on an extension over the next few days or weeks.

After struggling in 2019, Gausman rebounded nicely with a strong 3.62 ERA/3.24 SIERA over 59 2/3 innings and an outstanding 32.2% strikeout rate and 25.7 K-BB%.  Albeit in a shortened season, these were easily career highs for Gausman, giving him an interesting decision in regards to the qualifying offer.  Toronto reportedly had a three-year, $40MM offer on the table, and only seven free agents (and only one pitcher in Trevor Bauer) landed more than $40MM in guaranteed money all winter.  However, Gausman chose to bet on himself by locking in that $18.9MM single-season payday and giving himself the opportunity for a richer multi-year deal next winter, when more teams might be more open to spending.

The rotation was a clear priority for a Giants team that had several arms slated for free agency.  Of the seven pitchers who made multiple starts for San Francisco in 2020, only three will return — Gausman, veteran Johnny Cueto, and 24-year-old Logan Webb.  Filling the next two spots will be some combination of Anthony DeSclafani, Aaron Sanchez, and Alex Wood, though Wood’s status is uncertain for Opening Day following an ablation procedure on his spine.

As ominous as this injury sounds, Wood may not end up missing much (if any) time, giving the Giants some depth in figuring out their rotation.  Aside from Gausman, none of the other starters pitched particularly well in 2020, and Sanchez didn’t pitch at all following shoulder surgery after the 2019 campaign.  Having Webb step forward as a big league regular would be a nice building block for the Giants’ future plans, and Cueto rediscovering any of his old form would be a good way to salvage from value from the last guaranteed season of his six-year, $130MM contract.  As for the others, the Giants are simply hoping that they’ve found at least one “next Gausman” among the group.

The bullpen remains a fallback option for any of the pitchers, and Wood pitched well enough as a reliever for the Dodgers last season that the relief corps could be his ultimate landing spot if he can’t stay healthy enough to stick as a starter.  There isn’t a ton of starting depth down on the farm, but Ashton Goudeau, Conner Menez, Anthony Banda, and Shun Yamaguchi all have at least a bit of MLB experience.  Veteran Scott Kazmir is also on hand after signing a minor league deal, though it remains to be seen if Kazmir will continue his comeback attempt in the wake of a rough Spring Training.

Nick Tropeano has made only one start in the last two seasons, but the righty might also factor into the rotation in a swingman capacity.  Tropeano’s minor league deal stands a good chance of being selected for the Opening Day roster, putting him in line to join a few other new faces in the San Francisco bullpen.

After an overall shaky four-year stint with the Rockies, McGee revived his career and picked up a World Series ring by posting a 2.66 ERA over 20 1/3 innings for the Dodgers last season.  McGee allowed a lot of hard contact, but countered that problem by missing a lot of bats, recording an eye-popping 33 strikeouts against just three walks.  The southpaw now moves to the other side of the Los Angeles/San Francisco rivalry and looks to be the favorite for the closer’s job, though manager Gabe Kapler has indicated that several pitchers could get save chances based on specific in-game situations.

Tyler Rogers, Reyes Moronta (back after missing all of 2020 due to shoulder surgery), or new arrivals Wisler or Alvarez could all be in the mix for those save opportunities.  Wisler’s slider-heavy arsenal netted him 35 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings for Minnesota last season, though the Twins still chose to non-tender the right-hander, perhaps due to Wisler’s lack of much real Major League success in five seasons prior to 2020.  Alvarez is something of the opposite, having posted solid numbers as a bullpen workhorse for the Angels and Phillies from 2015-19 before a groin injury sidelined him for much of 2020.

For the combined price of $2.3MM, there’s plenty of bargain potential with either Wisler or Alvarez.  Brebbia is more of a long-term play, since he is controlled through the 2023 season and might not pitch at all in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June.

While San Francisco didn’t break the bank on any of their winter moves, they did at least check in some bigger names.  On the pitching side, Jake Odorizzi and Tomoyuki Sugano were on the Giants’ radar, and they even did some due diligence on signing Bauer.  For position players, such names as Jackie Bradley Jr., Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, and Marcell Ozuna all received consideration.

Amidst all those outfield targets, however, the Giants’ top free agent splurge added to a seemingly crowded infield.  Tommy La Stella’s three-year, $18.75MM deal was a nice signing of a player who has been a solidly above-average hitter (albeit rarely in an everyday capacity) for much of his career, and his addition only further strengths the team’s depth.

Ideally, Brandon Belt will be the starting first baseman and Evan Longoria will get most of the playing time at third base.  However, Longoria is still bothered by plantar fasciitis, while Belt is recovering from a miserable offseason that included heel surgery, a case of COVID-19, and then a bout of mononucleosis.  While Belt got onto the field for the final week of Cactus League games and might yet be available for Opening Day, it’s understandable why the Giants looked to add corner infield help.

La Stella has played extensively at second base and third base throughout his career, Donovan Solano can handle the same two positions and also back up Brandon Crawford at shortstop, while lefty-masher Wilmer Flores can step in at first, second, or third base whenever a southpaw is on the mound.  Moreover, La Stella, Longoria, and (via a club option) Flores are the only infielders controlled beyond the 2021 season, so La Stella’s deal is part of a longer-term infield plan for San Francisco.

The long-term answer at catcher could end up being top prospect Joey Bart, but since Bart struggled in his first 111 MLB plate appearances, San Francisco needed a reliable veteran backstop for Buster Posey.  Curt Casali will fill that role in both 2021 and potentially 2022 (given his extra year of arbitration control) once the Giants have a better idea of their next step at catcher.  After undergoing hip surgery in 2018, Posey didn’t play well in 2019 and then opted out of the 2020 season, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him this year.  The Giants’ $22MM club option on Posey for 2022 doesn’t seem like it will be exercised, so barring another contractual arrangement, Posey could be another of the longtime Giants fixtures hitting the open market.

That upcoming Giants free agent class undoubtedly looms larger in Zaidi’s thinking.  Only three players are officially on the team’s books for 2022, totaling roughly $30.8MM in payroll expenditures, which hints at some potentially major spending in the future.  Much of that heavy lifting could come in next offseason’s free agent market, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if Zaidi and GM Scott Harris picked up a controllable contract at this year’s trade deadline regardless of whether or not the Giants are in the playoff race.

By holding off on spending now, the argument can be made that the Giants are playing for the second National League wild card spot at best, given how loaded the Dodgers and Padres look in the NL West alone.  While the Giants contended for a slot in the expanded playoff field last season, however, they were also still a sub-.500 team (29-31), and Zaidi/Harris may want more time to evaluate what they have in some players after the wholly unusual circumstances of the 2020 campaign.

In the outfield, for instance, Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson have been revelations since joining the Giants in 2019, but one more full season would likely cement them as building blocks even though both players turn 31 this season.  Mauricio Dubon might now be the Giants’ center fielder of the future rather than a middle infielder of the future, but with star prospect Heliot Ramos looming, Dubon’s position isn’t yet settled.  Signing a Marcell Ozuna or a Jackie Bradley might have solved a question that the Giants could already have an internal answer for, so the team chose to mostly stand pat in the outfield (aside from acquiring LaMonte Wade Jr. from the Twins) and stick with Austin Slater and Darin Ruf as depth options.

San Francisco fans may have been hoping for a bigger spending spree that would fully herald a return to contention, but the Giants have opted to keep building slowly.  The tough division may limit the Giants as a surprise team for 2021, yet finding a few more pieces of their next foundation would count as a win, particularly if construction will begin on that foundation in the relatively near future.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals have been near the bottom of the American League three years running. They took steps to correct that over the winter, adding a few veterans to deepen the roster. This spring, the Royals locked up a couple key contributors on long-term extensions, one via the largest deal in franchise history.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Royals’ run of consecutive losing seasons reached four in 2020, as they finished 26-34 in the abbreviated slate. That was at least an improvement over 2018-19, during which time Kansas City had the third-worst combined record in the league (better only than the Orioles and Tigers). The Royals view 2020 as a stepping stone, a sign the organization has put those horrible two seasons behind them. Entering the offseason, general manager Dayton Moore said he expected the team to be more competitive in 2021 than it had been in years past.

Moore was also rather forthright about what he saw as the team’s deficiencies. “We definitely need more on-base guys,” the GM told reporters last October. “We need more quality [at-bats] from probably two other spots in that lineup.” Not coincidentally, the Royals’ biggest free agent position player pickup ended up being Carlos Santana. The veteran first baseman is one of the game’s best at taking quality at-bats. Since breaking into the majors in 2010, Santana has reached base at a .366 clip, a mark that ranks 25th leaguewide (minimum 2000 plate appearances).

The Royals inked Santana to a two year, $17.5MM guarantee in December. It was a bit of a surprise to see him command a multi-year deal coming off a .199/.349/.350 line in Cleveland. Despite the mediocre bottom line numbers last year, Santana’s strike zone feel was strong as ever. The switch-hitter walked at an incredible 18.4% clip while punching out just 16.9% of the time, making him one of only seven qualified hitters with more free passes than strikeouts.

Santana was the Royals’ only major league free agent infield pickup, but the club made another important addition on a minor-league contract. Kansas City agreed to a non-roster deal with Hanser Alberto, who had been non-tendered by the Orioles. The 28-year-old seems likely to make the Opening Day roster and push incumbent second baseman Nicky Lopez for playing time. (Before signing Alberto, the Royals pursued Jurickson Profar in free agency, but the latter eventually returned to the Padres on a three-year deal).

Lopez won’t begin the year on the active roster, having been optioned to Triple-A. The Royals could turn to Whit Merrifield, who has bounced between second and the outfield in recent years, at the keystone. Alternatively, Kansas City could move Merrifield to right field on a regular basis and give the second base job to Alberto with Lopez in the minors. Alberto never walks but he makes a ton of contact, resulting in a productive .299/.322/.413 line (95 wRC+) over the past two seasons. Top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. impressed in Spring Training and could also be an option at some point this season. He’ll begin the year in the minors, perhaps at Double-A.

The left side of the infield will be filled internally. Adalberto Mondesi hasn’t consistently performed at the plate but he’s shown flashes of power, good defense and elite baserunning. The 25-year-old will get another shot at a breakout season at shortstop. After breaking in as a third baseman, Hunter Dozier moved to right field last year to accommodate the signing of Maikel Franco. Franco was reasonably productive in 2020, but the Royals non-tendered him rather than pay an arbitration salary projected in the $4.5MM – $8MM range. With Franco gone, Dozier moves back to the hot corner.

The outfield will look quite different than it has in the past. Franchise icon Alex Gordon retired at the end of last season. One of the faces of the Royals’ mid-2010’s playoff runs, Gordon walked away after an illustrious 14-year career in Kansas City. It’ll be difficult to replace his perennially elite left field defense, to say nothing of the unquantifiable impact he had in the locker room and in the community. But Gordon was a below-average hitter in each of his final five seasons, so there’s certainly room for more offense at the position.

The Royals hope that production comes from their top trade pickup of the offseason. In need of a new left fielder and on the hunt for a left-handed bat to better balance the lineup, Kansas City acquired Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox as part of a three-team deal. They’re buying low on the 26-year-old, who took a bit of a step back from his peak form in 2019 before suffering through a disastrous 2020.

The Royals sent outfielder Franchy Cordero, whose blend of power and speed continues to intrigue teams despite a lengthy injury history and swing-and-miss issues, back to the Red Sox, along with a pair of players to be named later. Outfield prospect Khalil Lee was moved to the Mets as part of the deal. Benintendi is controllable for a pair of seasons, and the Red Sox will pay $2.8MM of his $6.6MM salary in 2021.

In the other corner outfield spot, the Royals could turn to Merrifield regularly with Alberto and/or Lopez at second base. When Merrifield’s on the dirt, Edward Olivares, Nick Heath and prospect Kyle Isbel could work in right. Those players could all be options in center field, as well, but the bulk of time there seems likely to go to a pair of free agent signings. The Royals have long valued speed and range more than most teams, and their moves at the position reflect that. Kansas City signed each of Michael A. Taylor and Jarrod Dyson to low-cost, one-year deals. Neither player offers much at the plate, but they’re high-end defenders and Dyson, in particular, is an excellent baserunner.

Dyson’s addition is also emblematic of another organizational pattern: reacquiring former Royals. Last winter, Kansas City brought back former All-Star closer Greg Holland on a minor-league deal. That proved to be a masterstroke, as Holland tossed 28.1 innings of 1.91 ERA/3.20 SIERA ball, eventually reclaiming his old ninth inning role. The veteran righty is back again, having re-signed on a surprisingly modest $2.75MM contract this offseason.

Holland isn’t the only member of the Royals’ old fearsome bullpen to return. Wade Davis, arguably the best reliever in baseball from 2014-16, will be on the Opening Day roster after signing a minor-league deal over the winter. Davis’ stint with the Rockies was a disaster, and he’s now a couple years removed from being productive. But there’s little risk in bringing him back and hoping for a resurgence. That’s also true of former Oriole bullpen stalwart Brad Brach, a fellow minor-league signee.

The team’s biggest free agent pickup of the winter is another player who once had plenty of success in Kansas City. Mike Minor revived his career with a breakout 2017 season working out of the Royals’ bullpen. That earned him a three-year deal with the Rangers, where Minor stretched back out as a starter. The lefty had plenty of success over his first two years in Texas, earning an All-Star selection in 2019. Minor had a difficult 2020 season in terms of run prevention, pitching to a 5.56 ERA in 56.2 innings. He struck out a career-best 25.9% of opposing hitters, though, and pitched to a 4.20 SIERA that was actually better than in either of his previous two seasons.

The Royals’ front office clearly believes in Minor’s ability to bounce back, as they signed the 33-year-old to a two-year, $18MM guarantee with a 2023 club option. He joins Brad Keller and Danny Duffy as rotation locks. Brady Singer seems likely to open the year in the starting five as well. Jakob Junis and Kris Bubic will almost certainly factor into the rotation at some point (although Bubic will open the year in the minors). Prospects Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch are in camp as non-roster invitees, as is Ervin Santana, another former Royal brought back over the winter.

Many teams around the league scaled back payroll this offseason on the heels of last year’s revenue losses. The Royals are an exception, entering 2021 in the same range they were prepared to open 2020. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegs their projected Opening Day payroll at just under $88MM (not yet including Davis’ $1.25MM salary, which became guaranteed when he earned a spot on the active roster). The Royals opened last season just north of $89MM (before prorating salaries), Cot’s estimates.

Adding Davis to the ledger should put the Royals’ 2021 payroll at or a little above last year’s mark. (If Alberto makes the team, he’d lock in a $1.65MM base salary). That’s still one of the lower figures in the league and around $54MM shy of 2017’s franchise-record outlay of $143+MM. However, that the Royals didn’t dramatically cut costs this winter could bode well for their chances of increasing future spending as they put their rebuild behind them.

Indeed, the Royals have started to fill in the long-term books over the past few weeks. That began with an extension for Dozier that guarantees $25MM and keeps him under club control through 2025. It’s a bet on a bounce back for the 29-year-old, who performed well in 2019 before falling off a bit last year. Dozier had to work back from an early bout with COVID-19, so it’s not unreasonable to believe he can regain some of his lost power with a more normal offseason.

The Dozier extension was a precursor to a more meaningful pact. The Royals locked up Salvador Pérez, who had been scheduled to reach free agency after this season, on a four-year extension covering 2022-25 and including a club option for 2026. The deal guarantees the 30-year-old backstop $82MM and can max out at $93MM over five seasons, making it the largest investment in franchise history.

It was a bit surprising to see Pérez command that level of commitment, particularly a year in advance of free agency. Still, he’s clearly beloved within the organization and by the Kansas City fanbase and is coming off an incredible 2020 season. No one expects Pérez to repeat last year’s .333/.353/.633 slash line over a larger sample, but Pérez is one of the game’s preeminent workhorses behind the plate and has a long track record of outhitting others at the position.

It’s possible Moore and his front office look to hammer out another long-term deal or two in the next few days. They reportedly discussed an extension with Mondesi early in Spring Training. Talks apparently didn’t get very far, but they could revisit those negotiations. Mondesi is controllable through 2023 via arbitration.

There’s a bit more urgency if the front office wants to keep Jorge Soler off the open market. The 2019 AL home run champ is scheduled to be a free agent at year’s end. The Royals had interest in working out an extension with Soler last offseason. It isn’t clear if that’s still the case after he hit just .228/.326/.443 and battled an oblique injury in 2020.

It remains to be seen whether the Royals did enough to seriously contend for a playoff spot this season. Public projections still paint them as something of a longshot, but the fanbase has some reason for hope for the first time in a while. At the very least, the Royals should be more competitive in 2021 than they’ve been over the past few years.

How would you grade the Royals’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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It’s a season of change for the Indians, who said goodbye over the offseason to a star shortstop, a rotation cornerstone, and even their team name.  One thing Cleveland is hoping to replicate, however, is a return to the playoffs, as the club is still planning to contend.

Major League Signings

  • Eddie Rosario, OF: One year, $8MM
  • Cesar Hernandez, 2B: One year, $5MM (Cleveland holds $6MM club option for 2022, no buyout)
  • Total spend: $13MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The offseason began in rather inauspicious fashion for the Tribe, as the team didn’t just part ways with Brad Hand, but the unusual decision was made to place the closer on waivers.  The intent was to try and save $1MM, the cost of buying out Hand’s $10MM club option — had another team claimed Hand on waivers, the Indians would have been clear of any further financial responsibilities.

As odd as it was to see a team go to such lengths over a $1MM buyout, Hand went unclaimed on waivers, so Cleveland was far from alone in practicing austerity at the beginning of the offseason.  Declining the club option was itself a notable move, as the Tribe ended up letting a three-time All-Star go for nothing rather than at least exploring the market for a trade possibility.  For comparison’s sake, the Reds got an experienced reliever (Noe Ramirez) and a prospect back in exchange for trading closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels in December.

But, reducing spending was clearly top priority for a Cleveland team that will go into the 2021 season with somewhere in the neighborhood of roughly $49.1MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) to $52.7MM (as per Roster Resource) committed to player salaries.  Only the rebuilding Pirates are spending less on payroll than Cleveland, and beyond that, the Tribe doesn’t have a single dollar officially committed to a player for the 2022 season.

This being said, the Indians haven’t gone the way of the Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, or other teams who slashed payroll as part of a multi-year rebuild.  Cleveland intends to make another run at the AL Central this season, as evidenced by how the Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco blockbuster with the Mets continued the Tribe’s established strategy of trading established stars for a package of players that can contribute both now and in the future.

Both Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario have big league experience and could help Cleveland as early as Opening Day.  Indeed, it seems like Gimenez will be the Indians’ regular shortstop, while Rosario is being eyed for something of a super-utility role, probably ticketed to see more time on the outfield grass than on the infield dirt.

Both former top-100 prospects, Gimenez is seen as a better defensive fit than Rosario at shortstop, and Gimenez’s 2020 rookie season saw him earn more and more playing time in New York.  Gimenez’s .263/.333/.398 slash line over 132 plate appearances translated to roughly league-average (101 OPS+, 104 wRC+) offensive production, so the Tribe would likely be quite pleased if Gimenez can duplicate that over a full season while providing solid glovework.  Gimenez’s numbers in the minors weren’t far beyond his modest MLB stats and he has still never played any Triple-A ball, but if he does end up needing a bit more minor league seasoning, Rosario and backup infielder Yu Chang are on hand to fill in at shortstop.

Rosario is something of the opposite story, as he established himself with the bat at the Double-A and Triple-A levels but questions have persisted about his ability to stick at shortstop.  He has played almost exclusively at short throughout his career, with just seven games in the minors as a third baseman and one appearance with the Mets last season in left field, though there were reports both two years ago and this past winter that New York was considering using Rosario in the outfield.

Interestingly, the Reds and other teams inquired about Rosario’s availability after the Indians brought him over from the Mets, but Cleveland opted to see what it has in the 25-year-old.  Rosario hasn’t come close to living up to his former top-prospect status, though he did show some glimpses of consistent hitting talent during the 2019 season.  A change of scenery and a change of position could both help to unlock this potential, and Cleveland’s outfield has been such a weak link for so many years that the Indians would undoubtedly love to see Rosario (or anyone) present themselves as a reliable regular option on the grass.

While Gimenez and Rosario have potential, it will likely be a long time before Cleveland fans forget about Lindor or Carrasco.  There was never doubt that Lindor was finally being traded this winter, as he had only one year remaining on his contract and the Tribe wasn’t prepared to meet Lindor’s $300MM+ asking price on an extension.  Since that sole year of control perhaps limited Lindor’s trade market, the Indians sweetened the deal for the Mets by including Carrasco, a beloved team leader and still a solidly effective starting pitcher (though Carrasco will begin the season on the injured list).

As frustrating as it must be for Cleveland fans to constantly see star players shipped away from Progressive Field, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have now rather extensively refurbished this roster with promising young players, several of whom could be on the verge of a 2021 breakout.  It also doesn’t hurt that the Indians still have one of baseball’s best players in Jose Ramirez (who reportedly wasn’t a trade candidate this winter), one of the game’s best pitchers in AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, and an uncanny ability to keep developing quality starting pitching from its farm system.

To add to this core group, the Tribe did indeed spend some money.  Owner Paul Dolan reportedly had to okay the front office’s ability to give $8MM to Eddie Rosario, a familiar AL Central face who beat up on Cleveland pitching over his six seasons with the Twins.  Rosario was available due to some cost-cutting on Minnesota’s part, as the Twins chose to non-tender Rosario rather than pay him a projected arbitration salary in the range of $8.6MM to $12.9MM.  Rosario gives Cleveland a legitimate everyday outfielder who offers a solid left field glove and quite a bit of pop, even if his on-base numbers aren’t overly impressive.

While left field looks settled, there is uncertainty at the other outfield positions.  The Tribe’s hope is that Josh Naylor can take the leap from prospect to MLB regular in right field, but he does have only 383 big league plate appearances on his resume.  In center field, minor league signing Ben Gamel looks to get the bulk of playing time against right-handed pitching, with Amed Rosario and Jordan Luplow (who has only a handful of games as a center fielder in the majors) sharing the other side of the platoon.  Rosario or Luplow could also spell the left-handed hitting Naylor when a southpaw is on the mound.

Franmil Reyes might also get the occasional look in the outfield, but the slugger will spend much of his time as a designated hitter.  Nolan Jones could join the outfield mix as well, as the top prospect (expected to make his MLB debut in 2021) has been getting work as an outfielder and as a first baseman since Jose Ramirez has already locked down Jones’ usual third base position.  Elsewhere on the outfield depth chart, waiver claim Harold Ramirez joins Bradley Zimmer, prospect Daniel Johnson and, somewhat surprisingly, Oscar Mercado as the top options at Triple-A.  Mercado was optioned to the minors since he still hasn’t gotten his swing on track in the aftermath of a brutal 2020 season.

In the wake of the Mets trade, the initial thought was that both Gimenez and Amed Rosario would start in the middle infield, though that plan changed when Cleveland re-signed Cesar Hernandez to a $5MM deal with a club option for 2022.  Hernandez had an impressive all-around season with the Tribe, hitting .283/.355/.408 (106 OPS+, 110 wRC+) over 261 PA, and winning a Gold Glove for his slick work at second base.  Hernandez generated 1.9 fWAR over 58 games last season, a nice step up after he posted 1.8 fWAR in 2019 and 2.2 fWAR in 2018, both totals over 161-game seasons with the Phillies.

After declining the Tribe declined their club option on Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers will get another shot as the provisional starting first baseman.  This decision is probably more based on Bauers being out of minor league options than a testament to his performance, as Bauers has only a .691 OPS over 811 PA in the majors and he didn’t play at all in 2020.  Bobby Bradley has had a nice Spring Training and is waiting in the wings if Bauers struggles, though since Bradley and Naylor are the only other viable first base options on the roster, Cleveland will face a question if all of these younger bats aren’t quite ready for prime time.  Should this become an issue during the season, the Tribe could look to pick up a veteran free agent still on the market — speculatively, perhaps a reunion with Edwin Encarnacion?

The one club option that Cleveland did exercise last fall was to retain catcher Roberto Perez, who will earn a $5.5MM salary in 2021.  There was some thought that Austin Hedges could be non-tendered, but the Indians brought him back as well on an arbitration-avoiding $3.28MM salary.  The Perez/Hedges pairing definitely prioritizes glovework over hitting, though it adds to an overall sturdy defensive mix around the diamond.

Of course, Cleveland’s run-prevention efforts are helped by their strong pitching staff.  While replacing Carrasco is far from easy, the Tribe have Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, and Logan Allen competing for the rotation’s two open spots, with McKenzie looking like the favorite for the fourth starter role.  There isn’t much in the way of experienced depth at Triple-A, so injuries could create a problem…unless the Tribe call up yet another youngster who immediately looks like a big league-ready arm.  Keep an eye on left-handers Scott Moss and Sam Hentges as candidates to make their Major League debuts in 2021.

The Indians did add some veterans to their relief corps via minor league deals, signing Blake Parker and a couple of familiar Cleveland faces in Bryan Shaw and Oliver Perez.  Shaw has already been told he is making the Opening Day roster, and Perez also looks like a pretty safe bet considering that Cleveland doesn’t have any other southpaws in the bullpen.  James Karinchak and Nick Wittgren are the top choices to replace Hand at closer, and both pitchers could receive their share of saves rather than have just a single pitcher committed for ninth-inning work.

It remains to be seen if the Indians have enough to keep pace with the Twins or White Sox in the AL Central, or if the Tribe will be able to absorb the losses of Lindor and Carrasco as readily as they did losing Mike Clevinger, Corey Kluber, or Trevor Bauer in other trades within the last two years.  Cleveland isn’t leaving itself much margin for error payroll-wise, but another postseason appearance wouldn’t be a shock.

How would you grade the Indians’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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With the NL Central wide open, the Brewers made a pair of late free agent strikes to solidify their roster for another run at the playoffs.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Defense wasn’t a strength for the Brewers in 2020, as they posted lackluster finishes in such league-wide categories as Outs Above Average (ranking 16th of 30 teams), Defensive Runs Saved (22nd), and UZR/150 (24th).  These numbers were going to improve anyway with former Gold Glover Lorenzo Cain back in action, but glovework may now become a real plus now that Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr. are on the roster.

After eight seasons in St. Louis, Wong became a free agent after the Cardinals declined their $12.5MM club option on the second baseman for 2021.  Several teams had interest in Wong over the course of the winter, and he was able to parlay that interest into a two-year contract and at least $18MM in guaranteed money, moving from the Cards to a division rival that is very familiar with what Wong brings to the table.

If Wong comes close to his career .261/.333/.384 slash line (94 OPS+, 96 wRC+), the Brewers won’t mind such slightly below-average production as long as Wong keeps providing elite-level defense.  The signing may also have the secondary impact of helping Keston Hiura’s game, as the defensively-challenged former second baseman now moves from the keystone to first base.  Such a position switch will lessen Hiura’s defensive responsibility and possibly allow him to focus more on his hitting, as Hiura went through a sophomore slump after his big 2019 rookie season.

The Brew Crew had three established outfield starters in Cain, former NL MVP Christian Yelich, and Avisail Garcia, yet signing Bradley made a lot of sense.  It has been over two years since Cain has been a productive regular, as he struggled through an injury-riddled 2019 and then opted out of much of the 2020 season.  Garcia (signed to a two-year, $20MM deal last offseason) at least provided passable center field defense filling in for Cain but suffered through a rough year at the plate.  Even Yelich had a down year by his standards, never quite looking on track over 247 plate appearances while posting a .205/.356/.430 slash line with 12 homers.

Into this mix comes Bradley, who joined Wong as another defensive standout hitting the open market after eight seasons with his original team.  It seemed like there was at least some chance Bradley could end up back with the Red Sox considering how long he remained a free agent, though Boston made other moves to replace Bradley in the Fenway Park outfield.  As the winter wore on, many of the other teams linked to Bradley also addressed their outfield needs with other players, perhaps just because clubs preferred these other options, or maybe because Bradley’s rather hefty contract demands might have immediately lost the interest of some suitors.

Bradley will earn $13MM of his $24MM guarantee in 2021, and the outfielder then has an $11MM player option to either rejoin the Brew Crew in 2022 or re-enter free agency.  The contract seems pretty palatable for both sides — Bradley gets an extra year of security, and even if he does struggle in 2021 and end up exercising his option out of necessity, $24MM isn’t so big a sum that it would significantly hamper even a smaller-market team like Milwaukee.

That said, the Brewers didn’t necessarily act like most other smaller-market franchises operated in the wake of 2020’s revenue losses.  The team was originally slated for a payroll of roughly $102.5MM in 2020 prior to the pandemic and the league shutdown, and as we approach Opening Day 2021, the Brewers have (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts) approximately $96.9MM committed to this season’s payroll.  There are some sizeable deferrals within the 2021 salaries for both Bradley and Wong, but in terms of money on the books, the Brew Crew could certainly match or surpass their projected 2020 payroll figure depending on any in-season additions.

Since the Brewers didn’t do much of anything transaction-wise until February, president of baseball operations David Stearns might not have known exactly how much of a budget he had to work with for much of the offseason, or it was perhaps something of a tactical move to wait out the market in search of potential bargains.  Even after signing Wong, Milwaukee still made a strong attempt to sign Justin Turner before the longtime Dodger third baseman ended up re-signing with his old team.

Turner wasn’t the only bigger free agent bat under consideration, as the Brewers reportedly looked into Marcell Ozuna, Marcus Semien, and Eddie Rosario during the winter.  Whether the team was doing due diligence on available free agents or had a more serious interest in any of these other names isn’t known, but it does represent an interesting alternate picture of Milwaukee’s offseason.  The Brewers, after all, didn’t produce much offense last season, but their two biggest additions were defensive stars with middling offensive track records, whereas the likes of Ozuna or Rosario would have been clear bat-first additions.

Had Turner been signed instead of Bradley, it’s fair to assume Milwaukee looks to add a veteran outfielder on a minors contract or a low-cost MLB contract to fill that void in the outfield.  However, with Turner back in Los Angeles, that left third base as the position in need of some veteran reinforcement.

Milwaukee brought back an old friend in Travis Shaw, whose minor league deal has already been guaranteed by the team. The Brewers parted ways with Shaw after he struggled through a miserable 2019 season, but he did rebound to some modest extent in hitting .239/.306/.411 over 180 PA with the Blue Jays last year.  If Shaw can at least get back to producing against right-handed pitching, the Brewers can deploy a third base timeshare of Shaw and right-handed hitters Daniel Robertson and Orlando Arcia.

That duo could also factor into the shortstop picture if Luis Urias isn’t get ready for regular big league work.  Arcia was seen as a possible non-tender candidate heading into the offseason, but the Brewers chose to retain him as insurance in the wake of Urias’ forgettable 2019 season, which was hampered by both a wrist injury and a case of COVID-19.  Robertson was signed to a one-year, $900K deal as further utility depth, as the former Tampa Bay Ray first-round pick can play any infield position and has some experience at a corner outfielder.

Tim Lopes and Jace Peterson were also signed as utility candidates, yet the Brewers went another direction in tendering a contract to Dan Vogelbach.  This decision was made before Hiura was moved to first base, and before it became apparent that the National League wasn’t going to adopt the DH again for the 2021 season.  Vogelbach is out of minor league options and without a real position on the roster, so he stands out as a potential trade candidate in the final days of Spring Training.  Conversely, the Brewers could simply cut him before Opening Day and only owe him around $339K of his $1.4MM salary for the 2021 campaign.

The lack of a universal DH might have also closed the book on Ryan Braun’s career, as the longtime Brewers fixture recently said he hasn’t been doing any offseason training and is “strongly leaning” towards hanging up his glove.  Since nothing is yet official, Milwaukee fans can still hold out hope for a storybook late-season comeback scenario, but in all likelihood, the Brewers are already in the post-Braun era.

Rich Hill and Trevor Rosenthal were two of the Brewers’ targets for the rotation and bullpen this winter, but with neither hurler signed, Milwaukee’s pitching mix will look pretty similar to its collection of arms from the 2020 season.  Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Adrian Houser join the re-signed Brett Anderson atop the rotation.  While it sounds odd to refer to the oft-injured Anderson as an innings-eater, the grounder specialist has been mostly healthy for the last two seasons and will provide some veteran experience at the back of the rotation.

Freddy Peralta won the fifth starter’s job over Josh Lindblom, but in a season that will require as many pitchers on hand as possible, the Brewers will likely be even more flexible than usual with its pitching plans.  A six-man rotation, piggybacked starters, openers — nothing seems off the table in 2021.  With this in mind, veteran minor league signings like Jordan Zimmermann, Zack Godley, Brad Boxberger or Blaine Hardy could perhaps stick around (and not exercise any opt-out clauses) even if they don’t crack the Opening Day roster, since there should be plenty of opportunity for big league action throughout the season.

And, it probably bears mentioning that Josh Hader is still a Brewer.  Despite some rumors during the winter, it didn’t appear as though the Brewers ever strongly considered moving their relief ace (or maybe co-ace, considering Devin Williams’ emergence).  Hader is earning $6.675MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility and he is still under control through the 2023 season, so while a trade might eventually happen down the line, it doesn’t appear the southpaw is going anywhere in the near future.

While much of the offseason chatter in the NL Central focused on the players the Cubs, Reds, and (prior to the Nolan Arenado trade) Cardinals were letting go, the Brew Crew somewhat quietly flew under the radar and didn’t part ways with any major pieces.  As flawed as the 2020 team was, it was still able to squeak into the expanded playoff bracket, and now the Brewers will return with Bradley, Wong, Cain, and what they hope are several bounce-back candidates in the lineup.

How would you grade the Brewers’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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Coming off an American League-worst 22-38 record, the Rangers are in for a transition year in 2021. Their new general manager will help shepherd the process.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

After somewhat surprisingly staying on the fringes of contention for most of 2019, the Rangers looked to have an opportunity to compete for a spot in the expanded postseason in 2020. Instead, the team fell flat, leading president of baseball operations Jon Daniels to sell at the trade deadline. At the time, Daniels noted the organization viewed 2022 as “the more likely window” for a return to contention and suggested there’d be a drop in player payroll in the upcoming season.

That hinted at an offseason of change in Arlington, and the Rangers eventually saw the departures of a few of the franchise’s most recognizable faces. Ace Lance Lynn entered the offseason as one of the league’s most obvious trade candidates and indeed wound up on the move. Elvis Andrus, the lone remaining member of the franchise’s 2010-11 pennant winning teams, was shipped off to a division rival a few months later. Shin-Soo Choo, the team’s second-longest tenured player, hit free agency and eventually returned to his native South Korea.

Before any of that roster turnover, though, the Rangers made a key move in the front office. Former MLB pitcher Chris Young signed on to become the team’s new general manager in early December. Young’s experience as a player and in the league office, where he spent the past three years overseeing on-field operations, had also garnered him some GM consideration from the Mets. His ascent didn’t come out of nowhere, but it’s something of an outside-the-box hire to install a person with no MLB front office experience in such a significant role.

The Rangers will look to ease Young’s transition by pairing with him with Daniels, one of the longest-tenured executives in the league, who remains on hand as baseball ops president. The latter retains final say over the roster, although it seems Young is being groomed to assume a larger share of the responsibility as he gets more familiar with the ins and outs of front office work. The move is something of a modernization of the club’s front office, as the president – GM tandem has become commonplace throughout the league.

Just a few days after bringing Young aboard, the Rangers pulled off the long-awaited Lynn trade, sending him to the White Sox. In return, Texas picked up six years of team control over 26-year-old righty Dane Dunning (as well as low minors lefty Avery Weems). A former first-rounder and top 100 prospect, Dunning got to the majors last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He had some immediate success, tossing 34 innings of 3.97 ERA/4.33 SIERA ball in his first seven starts. That came against a weak slate of opposing lineups, but Dunning has long drawn praise for his secondary stuff and command. He’s not likely to be a future ace, but he’s a big league-ready arm to replace Lynn in the rotation. Dunning is expected to open the year working as a tandem starter to keep his innings in check, but the Rangers surely view him as a starting pitcher long-term.

Competent back-of-the-rotation production from Dunning would be of plenty of value to a Rangers’ rotation that, outside of Lynn, was downright awful in 2020. Corey Kluber, acquired from Cleveland during the 2019-20 offseason, got through just a single inning before going down with a shoulder injury. The Rangers predictably bought out his $18MM option at the start of the offseason. Also gone is Mike Minor, who was moved at last summer’s deadline amidst a down year.

The only other Rangers’ starters to throw at least 30 innings last season were Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Both were disappointments in the first season of respective multi-year contracts but will get an opportunity to bounce back. They’ll be joined in the rotation by Dunning and a pair of low-cost offseason signees, Kohei Arihara and Mike Foltynewicz.

Arihara received a two-year, $6.2MM contract to come over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (Texas also paid $1.24MM directly to his former team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, as a posting fee). Public scouting reports on Arihara generally paint him as a back-of-the-rotation type, with his low price tag suggesting teams viewed him in a similar light. The 28-year-old isn’t overpowering and never missed many bats in NPB, but he has a wide array of pitches and a history of throwing strikes. Perhaps just as importantly, Arihara threw 132.2 innings in 2020, far more than any pitcher managed in the United States last year. That should allow him to handle a fairly robust workload, no small matter with teams needing to build pitchers up dramatically to get through a 162-game season.

On the other end of the innings spectrum is Foltynewicz, who lasted just 3.1 MLB frames with the Braves before being designated for assignment. Foltynewicz spent the remainder of the season at the alternate training site after passing unclaimed through waivers, with no team willing to pick up the prorated portion of his $6.425MM salary. It was a rapid fall from grace in Atlanta, where Foltynewicz had tossed 183 innings of 2.85 ERA/3.77 SIERA ball two years prior. He was only OK in 2019, though, and the Braves moved on after he averaged 91.3 MPH on his fastball (down more than five MPH from his peak) during his only start in 2020.

At last year’s end, Foltynewicz unceremoniously qualified for minor league free agency as a player with more than three years of MLB service who had been outrighted off his team’s 40-man roster. He threw for prospective suitors in late January and the Rangers jumped in with an incentive-laden $2MM contract quickly thereafter.

It’s a straightforward, low-cost bet on a 29-year-old bounce back candidate. If Foltynewicz struggles again, Texas can cut bait at minimal cost. If he performs at something resembling his peak, the Rangers will have an interesting decision to make. As a player with between four and five years of MLB service, Foltynewicz remains controllable through 2022 via arbitration. If the Rangers truly believe they can contend by then, perhaps they hold onto Foltynewicz all year. Otherwise, they can turn to the midseason trade market and hope to acquire a mid-level prospect from a more immediate contender. (For what it’s worth, Foltynewicz’s velocity has reportedly been most of the way back to peak levels in Spring Training).

Each of Gibson, Dunning, Lyles, Arihara and Foltynewicz has had enough success in the past that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of them pitch well in isolation. But it’s highly unlikely all five perform at a high level, and the depth behind them is lackluster. Sixth starter Kolby Allard has a career 6.72 ERA in the big leagues. Kyle Cody had a shiny ERA (1.59) last year but had poor peripherals and didn’t work deep into his starts. That uncertainty attracted plenty of non-roster invitees with starting experience. Tyson Ross, Jharel Cotton, Sam Gaviglio and Drew Anderson are all in camp on minor league deals, as is former KBO starter Hyeon-jong Yang.

The bullpen is even more rife with opportunity. Former closer Rafael Montero is gone. Texas traded the right-hander to the Mariners in December for 17-year-old pitching prospect Jose Corniell and a player to be named later. Corniell’s a faraway developmental flier but looks like a fair return for two years of a good but unspectacular reliever.

Montero aside, the Rangers went into camp with most of their top relievers from last season. The past few weeks have been absolutely brutal, though. Jonathan Hernández and José Leclerc, perhaps Texas’ top two late-inning arms, are each facing extended absences due to elbow issues. Southpaws Joely Rodríguez and Brett Martin are also starting the season on the injured list, albeit with more minor maladies. Rodríguez, cheaply controllable via a club option through 2022, could be a midseason trade candidate if he returns to form early in the season.

Taylor Hearn and Wes Benjamin are locks for key roles in the season-opening bullpen, but the picture’s wide open beyond them. Josh Sborz, acquired from the Dodgers in a minor trade last month, will probably assume some sort of late-inning job. Brett de Geus, selected in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles, has to stick on the active roster (or MLB injured list) all season if the Rangers want to retain his rights. There’s plenty of space to stash him in lower-leverage innings if Texas is intrigued by his long-term upside.

That still leaves a lot of room for the Rangers’ non-roster invitees to earn bullpen jobs. Some of the depth options in the rotation could spill over as long relief or swing pieces. Right-handers Ian Kennedy, Nick Vincent, and Hunter Wood are all in camp and have been productive relievers in the not-too-distant past. Spencer Patton signed a minor-league deal on the heels of a solid run in NPB. Matt Bush, who signed a two-year minor-league contract in December 2019, is back from Tommy John surgery and seems to have pitched his way into consideration as well.

There’s a lot of uncertainty on the pitching staff, but things are a little more stable on the position player side. Joey Gallo is back and has the everyday right field job. The Rangers have listened to offers for the slugger since last summer’s trade deadline but seemingly never gotten close on a deal. Gallo remains controllable through 2022, so the Rangers still have some time to determine how they wish to proceed with him.

David Dahl will claim another outfield spot when healthy. The former All-Star signed with Texas for a modest $2.7MM in December, not long after being surprisingly non-tendered by the Rockies. Dahl has had myriad injuries in recent years and performed terribly in limited time in 2020, leading Colorado to move on. But he’s a former top prospect who has typically been an above-average hitter (even after adjusting for Coors Field) and is entering his age-27 season. Equally important given the Rangers’ competitive outlook, Dahl is controllable via arbitration through 2023. As with Foltynewicz and Gallo, Texas could decide to hold onto Dahl beyond this season if they hope to make a push in 2022.

Precisely where Dahl fits in the outfield remains to be seen. Leody Taveras made his MLB debut last season and held his own. Taveras seems likely to get continued run in center field, which would push Dahl to left. That’d work the latter into a corner outfield/DH mix that remains crowded, even after Choo’s departure.

That’s largely the product of two offseason trades. In December, the Rangers acquired Nate Lowe from the Rays in a deal that also swapped five prospects among the organizations. Lowe was consistently one of the best hitters in the minors during his climb through the Tampa Bay farm system. He slashed .330/.416/.568 across three levels as a 22-year-old in 2018, then followed it up with a .289/.421/.508 mark at Triple-A in 2019.

Despite that high minors productivity, Lowe only picked up 245 plate appearances at the highest level in Tampa. The Rangers should be in position to give him more regular major league work. Ronald Guzmán has hovered around replacement level over the past three seasons and might be a better fit off the bench. Lowe could also work in at designated hitter if the Rangers want to give Guzmán another opportunity at first, although it seems more likely Willie Calhoun will get the bulk of the DH time once he returns from a season-opening injured list stint.

There’s also the presence of former Athletic Khris Davis to consider. Davis was acquired in early February as part of the deal that sent Andrus to Oakland. The Rangers took on Davis’ $16.75MM salary in 2021 to spur the A’s to absorb just more than half of Andrus’ respective $14.25MM salaries over the next two seasons (as well as a potential 2023 vesting/player option). Swapping out Davis and Andrus puts more money on the Rangers’ books in 2021 but frees up some payroll space the following year, when Texas is more likely to contend.

Davis’ inclusion in the deal was financially driven, although he remains on the team and should get some DH at-bats once he recovers from a quad strain. From an on-field perspective, the more meaningful part of the Andrus return is catcher Jonah Heim. The 25-year-old has had a long climb up the minor-league ladder but had a very strong 2019 season in the high minors. Sean Murphy’s presence blocked his path to playing time in the Bay Area, but Heim could carve out a meaningful role with the Rangers this season. Jeff Mathis departed in free agency, leaving Heim, Jose Trevino and non-roster veteran Drew Butera as the favorites for playing time behind the dish in Arlington. (Well-regarded prospect Sam Huff popped three homers in 10 MLB games last year but has otherwise yet to play above High-A, so the Rangers would probably like to get him some more minor-league seasoning).

The infield is a little more set in stone. Even before trading Andrus, the Rangers were prepared to turn shortstop over to Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The 26-year-old is coming off a Gold Glove-winning campaign at third base and the Rangers will try their hand at pushing him up the defensive spectrum. Nick Solak rotated between second base and left field last season; the Dahl signing probably pushes Solak to the keystone regularly. That’d move Rougned Odor to third base, where he has gotten plenty of action this spring. Non-roster invitees Brock Holt (who will make the Opening Day roster) and Charlie Culberson have infield experience and could factor in at the hot corner if the Rangers are tired of Odor’s long-running struggles at the plate. Top prospect Josh Jung might’ve been an option in the early summer, but he was set back by a stress fracture in his foot that’ll sideline him for six-to-eight weeks.

It was a fairly active winter in Arlington, as the Rangers added some young players they hope can help them contend in 2022. They also achieved their previously-stated goal of dramatically cutting expenses after last year’s revenue losses. The Rangers opened the 2020 season with a $153.1MM payroll (prior to prorating), in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’re going into 2021 in the $88MM range. Selecting the contracts of a few of the many non-roster veterans in camp will likely push that figure over $90MM by Opening Day, but it remains a stark decline from Texas’ typical level of spending.

The team’s fans will surely hope ownership is more willing to splurge next winter after a season with gate revenues. The upcoming free agent class should include a handful of stars, and the Rangers have been speculated as a potential suitor for Dallas-Fort Worth natives Trevor Story and Clayton Kershaw. In the interim, the Rangers are likely in for another below-average season, but they should at least get some clarity about which of their young players could be part of the next contending team in Arlington.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

MLB Faith And Hope Report: 2021

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In Andrew Zimbalist’s 2006 book In The Best Interests Of Baseball?, he wrote:

“[Commissioner Bud] Selig had a pet phrase that makes considerable sense: the fans of each team need to have ’faith and hope’ that their team has a chance to win at the beginning of each season. Without this faith and hope, fans will eventually lose interest, and the game will suffer.”

After reading that in 2019, I was inspired to create an annual Faith And Hope Report here at MLB Trade Rumors, so we can put a number on how many teams are competitive and track it over time.  70% of teams had hope in 2019 by my estimate.  Given the strange nature of the 2020 season, I skipped that year.  To make this assessment for 2021, I’ll be combining FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds with my own common sense, and there is subjectivity involved on the borderline teams. I’ll elaborate on those later in this post.

Teams that enter the 2021 season with faith and hope: Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Mets, Astros, Braves, White Sox, Twins, Blue Jays, Brewers, Angels, Red Sox, Athletics, Cardinals, Rays, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, Indians, Phillies, Royals, Giants, Marlins

Teams that enter 2021 without faith and hope: Rangers, Pirates, Rockies, Orioles, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Mariners

Conclusion: 76.67% of MLB teams have faith and hope of contending in 2021.

Arguable teams:

  • The Royals have a 8.9% chance at making the playoffs, with a 78 win projection.  As a team that very clearly worked to get better in the offseason and could make further additions at the trade deadline, they belong in the contender category.
  • With a 5.2% chance at the playoffs and a 76 win projection, the Giants are a tough one.  With the Dodgers and Padres in their division, their playoff chances rest almost entirely on grabbing one of the NL’s two Wild Card spots.  Their offseason involved some decent veteran contracts, including an accepted qualifying offer for Kevin Gausman and almost $42MM in additional commitments.  I’d say there’s some faith and hope for their fanbase this year.
  • The Mariners have a projected 2.7% shot at the playoffs and a 74 win projection.  It wasn’t a particularly aggressive offseason, and one of their bigger acquisitions, Ken Giles, won’t pitch this year.  They did add James Paxton, Rafael Montero, and various smaller pickups.  This isn’t a playoff caliber team and I sense that they’ll truly go for it in 2022, so I am going to nudge them into the non-contender category.
  • The Diamondbacks have a 1.6% chance at the playoffs and a 72 win projection, and like the Giants they’re hurt by the division they’re in.  It’s a fairly veteran club, and Baseball Prospectus has them better than the Giants.  But with a significant payroll cut and a quiet offseason, this doesn’t seem like a team with playoff aspirations.  Arbitrary as it may be, I’m putting them in the non-contender category.
  • The Marlins have just a 1.3% chance at the playoffs, per FanGraphs, with a 71 win projection.  Baseball Prospectus says 70.  This club made the playoffs in 2020 with a season that extrapolated to about 84 wins.  They would have just missed the postseason if not for the expanded format.  The club’s quiet offseason doesn’t tip the scales much.  The Marlins did pick up Starling Marte’s option and didn’t lose anyone too significant.  This one could go either way, but based on last year I have to lean toward the contender category even if the projection systems call for major regression.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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After their first losing season since 2011, the Nationals made several short-term additions to reload the roster for another shot at contention.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

General manager Mike Rizzo is no stranger to generating winter headlines, but there were no true blockbuster additions to the Washington roster this offseason, as the Nats (like most teams around baseball) took a more measured approach to spending in response to the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.  This doesn’t mean Rizzo took it easy, however — the Nationals were one of the offseason’s busier teams, considering the sheer volume of familiar names added on both one-year MLB contracts and minor league deals.

The Nationals waited until late December to make a truly noteworthy transaction, picking up Josh Bell in a trade that sent young right-handers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean to the Pirates.  This was one of Washington’s few moves made with an eye beyond just 2021, as Bell has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he qualifies for free agency after the 2022 season.  Earning $6.3MM this coming, Bell will be a pretty cost-effective piece for D.C. even if he has a good enough season to merit a big arbitration raise next winter, and naturally the club wouldn’t mind such an expenditure if it meant Bell was back to his old self.

The switch-hitting slugger batted just .226/.305/.364 in 223 plate appearances last year, with Bell also posting the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rates of his five-year MLB career.  That performance surely lowered the Pirates’ asking price in trade talks, and the Nationals must feel they’ve bought low on a player who was an All-Star in 2019.  Crowe and Yean are prospects of some note, but not blue-chippers in a Washington farm system that is already pretty deep in pitching.

The Bell trade broke the seal on the Nats’ winter business to some extent, as the team soon thereafter moved on another power bat by bringing Kyle Schwarber to the District.  The Cubs (as part of their own payroll crunch) non-tendered Schwarber after he hit .188/.308/.393 with 11 homers in 224 PA, a big step backwards from the above-average production Schwarber delivered in his previous five years in Wrigleyville.

Adding Bell and Schwarber probably won’t do much to help a Nationals defense that struggled badly in 2020.  What the two sluggers can bring, the Nats hope, is suitable lineup protection hitting behind Trea Turner and Juan Soto.  There is some risk involved if either of the two new faces continue to hit at their 2020 levels, but at least the risk is minimized to just the 2021 season, since D.C. can walk away from either Bell or Schwarber next offseason if things don’t work out.

This type of strategy informed the Nationals’ entire winter, as the team is rolling the dice on a number of bounce-back candidates in hope of landing at least a few bargain scores.  While Washington has shown a willingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold (if only by a bit) in the past, the club would surely like to avoid another tax payment if possible, and the Nats are estimated to sit roughly $13.25MM below the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax limit.  It leaves the team with a bit of breathing room for midseason additions, though the Nationals’ number will escalate depending on how many of their minor league signings make the roster and lock in guaranteed salaries.

Washington could have saved itself $500K if the team had just claimed Brad Hand on waivers last October, as Hand’s $10MM club option (that was eventually declined by the Indians) was less than the $10.5MM deal that Hand signed with D.C. in January.  Still, the Nats weren’t alone in passing on Hand at that time, quite possibly because they and other clubs didn’t have their 2021 budgets planned at that point in the offseason.

An “extra” $500K also isn’t exactly a big price to pay for a former three-time All-Star.  Though Hand’s velocity and strikeout numbers dropped a bit in 2020, he still posted some very strong numbers as Cleveland’s closer.  Hand is an easy replacement for Sean Doolittle (who struggled last year and left for the Reds in free agency) and his addition could help stabilize a Nationals relief corps that has been a weak spot for years.

Unfortunately, as is often the case with the Washington bullpen, new problems emerge as quickly as old problems are corrected.  Will Harris’ status is in question due to a blood clot in his right arm, while Tanner Rainey has yet to pitch this spring due to a muscle strain near his collarbone.  This opens the door for one of many relievers in camp on minor league deals (such as Javy Guerra, T.J. McFarland, Luis Avilan, Aaron Barrett, and more) to win jobs, or the Nationals could fill at least one bullpen role with one of the pitchers who doesn’t win the fifth spot in the rotation.

Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth are all out of options, so the Nats will have to figure out a way to keep them on the big league roster unless they want to risk losing any of the hurlers on a waiver placement.  D.C. can ill-afford losing a starter-capable arm for nothing, both because innings will be harder to fill this season, and because there is a fair amount of injury risk within the veteran top four of Washington’s rotation.

Stephen Strasburg tops this list, as the right-hander has been slowed by a calf injury this spring after missing all but two starts of 2020 due to carpal tunnel syndrome.  Between Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin, the Nationals reinforced this experienced group with an even older pitcher in 37-year-old Jon Lester.  It has been some time since Lester was a true top-of-the-rotation force, and his 5.16 ERA in 2020 (albeit over only 61 innings) was the worst of his career.  While the Nats obviously think Lester can improve on that statistic in a more normal season, Lester’s primary function will be to act as a durable innings-eater.

Returning to the position-player side, the Nationals said goodbye to several regulars from their World Series team, as Adam Eaton (White Sox), Michael A. Taylor (Royals), Kurt Suzuki (Angels), and Asdrubal Cabrera (Diamondbacks) all left the District as free agents and Howie Kendrick decided to retire.  Some familiar faces were retained, however, as the Nats worked out a new contract with longtime franchise stalwart Ryan Zimmerman, and utilityman Josh Harrison was re-signed for a second season with the club.

Zimmerman will serve as Bell’s backup, while Harrison could end up in a more significant role given the unsettled state of the D.C. infield.  On paper, Harrison will play much everywhere on the diamond in a super-utility capacity.  In practice, however, Harrison might end up getting more regular work in the infield since Carter Kieboom has followed up a rough 2020 season with a lack of production in Spring Training.  (Kieboom was also mentioned in trade rumors over the winter.)  It is possible the Nationals could end up using Starlin Castro at third base and Luis Garcia as the regular second baseman, but since Garcia is also inexperienced, having a versatile veteran like Harrison on hand becomes even more important.

The Nationals did at least consider making a much bigger splash to their everyday lineup, as such free agents and trade targets as D.J. LeMahieu, J.T. Realmuto, Carlos Santana, Eugenio Suarez, and Kris Bryant were all reportedly considered at different points in the offseason.  While Harrison, Alex Avila or (“Baby Shark” sing-alongs notwithstanding) Gerardo Parra don’t have the same cache as those star names, it seems like Washington is opting to wait until next winter to start considering more big-ticket additions.

Only three players are on guaranteed contracts for the 2022 season, though the trio of Corbin, Harris, and Strasburg accounts for $67MM in payroll (roughly $11.5MM of Strasburg’s salary is deferred).  As well, the Nationals are surely hoping that some of their payroll space will be taken up by long-term extensions with Soto and Turner.  A Soto extension might well be the priciest contract in baseball history, while Turner is more of an immediately pressing concern, since Soto is controlled through the 2024 season and Turner only through 2022.  Scherzer is also entering his final year under contract, and it’s probably safe to assume the Nats will have some talks about another deal for their longtime ace.

It makes for an interesting dynamic heading into 2021, as the Nationals will challenge for a return to the playoffs, but they are also well-positioned to pivot into being deadline sellers should they fall out of contention.  The 2022 Nationals may look quite different, but there is still enough of the old championship core remaining this year for Washington to make a proper 162-game defense of the 2019 World Series title.

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