Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

By | at

For the first time since 1988, the Dodgers are World Series champions. Regardless of what they do this offseason, they’ll enter 2021 as favorites to win it all again, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club make significant moves in order to bolster its chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

There is very little to dislike about this Dodgers roster, though the team is facing some notable losses in free agency. It starts with third baseman Justin Turner, who has been an unexpected gem for the team since it signed him to a minor league contract before the 2014 campaign. The bearded Turner has since emerged as one of the faces of the Dodgers and one of their most productive players, but considering he’s 36 years old and there may not be a universal designated hitter in 2021, it’s possible the Dodgers will move on in the coming months.

If the Dodgers do let Turner walk, there are a few alternate routes they could take at the hot corner. Los Angeles could stay within and hand the position to Edwin Rios, who saw quite a bit of time at third in 2020, or shift shortstop Corey Seager there. Otherwise, Kris Bryant (Cubs), Nolan Arenado (Rockies) or even free-agent infielder DJ LeMahieu could end up as targets. An Arenado acquisition seems especially unlikely, though, in part because the Rockies and Dodgers are division rivals. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently reported there are “monumental” roadblocks standing in the way of a potential Arenado-Dodgers union.

Of course, one can’t rule out another major trade that would deliver a franchise shortstop to the Dodgers. They’re certainly in good hands at the position with Seager, but if they want to shift him to third, trading for the Indians’ Francisco Lindor would make sense. Lindor seems like a surefire bet to go in a trade this offseason because he’s projected to make anywhere from $17.5MM to $21MM in arbitration next year, and the Indians are a frugal franchise. The Dodgers have more than enough young talent to put together a package for Lindor, and as such a wealthy franchise, the four-time All-Star’s salary would not stand in their way. So, in short, the Dodgers are as logical a Lindor suitor as anyone.

Moving to the outfield, the Dodgers may wave goodbye to Joc Pederson, who has been part of the organization since it selected him in the 11th round in 2010. Pederson debuted in 2014 and has since delivered above-average offensive production, though the left-handed swinger has struggled versus same-handed pitchers. That doesn’t mean the Dodgers won’t bring Pederson back, but it doesn’t seem all that likely when considering the talent the team has in its outfield. Right fielder Mookie Betts obviously isn’t going anywhere. Cody Bellinger played the majority of the year in center, and he’s obviously there to stay. Pederson played 20 of 60 games in left, but that total fell short of AJ Pollock’s 22. The Dodgers also have Chris Taylor in the fold as someone who can play multiple outfield positions.

On the pitching side, the Dodgers are rife with quality arms, though they are dealing with some upheaval in their bullpen. The club made a notable trade last week when it acquired onetime All-Star closer Corey Knebel from the Brewers. Knebel was terrible over a small sample of work last season, but it doesn’t seem fair to write him off over what was his first action since undergoing March 2019 Tommy John surgery. As recently as 2018, Knebel was a terrific reliever; if healthy, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least re-emerge as a useful part of the Dodgers’ bullpen (especially considering their track record of getting the most out of veterans).

An effective Knebel would help the Dodgers replace Blake Treinen, Jake McGee and Pedro Baez, who are each free agents. Treinen was solid for the Dodgers after signing for $10MM last winter; McGee was even better on a per-inning basis after inking a low-risk deal in July; and Baez once again prevented numbers at a respectable clip. So how do the Dodgers replace those three? Well, they could re-sign any of them, but they’re otherwise looking at a free-agent market with a slew of familiar veteran relievers. And you can’t necessarily rule out another trade with the Brewers, who don’t seem to be closing the door on letting go of lights-out lefty Josh Hader. As with Lindor, the Dodgers have the talent to put together a deal for Hader.

The way the Dodgers assemble their bullpen will affect how they construct their starting staff (and vice versa). Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler have their spots locked down, and the same is probably true for David Price (if he returns next year after opting out in 2020). Beyond that group, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May – who combined for 28 starts last season – remain clear candidates for rotation spots. All three look more than qualified, but if the Dodgers would rather make a sizable splash (whether that means for another starter or a position player), at least one of them could fall out of contention or even be dealt elsewhere. The team has the money to sign the No. 1 free agent available, NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, and it’s worth noting president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was at the helm of Tampa Bay’s front office when the Rays drafted 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell in 2011. Snell could now be a trade candidate for the Rays, so it’s hard not to connect him to the Dodgers partly because of the Friedman connection. Barring the acquisition of a front-line starter, though, the Dodgers don’t look as if they really have to do much in their rotation. It’s a good-looking group as it is.

However this offseason goes, the Dodgers will enter 2021 as a well-oiled machine that should once again push for a World Series championship. But considering their financial prowess, their array of talent and many other teams hesitant to spend because of the COVID-19 pandemic, this winter could give the Dodgers a chance to become even better. That’s a scary thought for the rest of Major League Baseball.

MLB Arbitration And Non-Tender Tracker

By | at

With the MLB non-tender deadline set for 7pm central time tonight, we’ll continue to see players agreeing to early “pre-tender” arbitration contracts.  As the deadline nears, many others will not be tendered contracts by their teams, making them free agents.

This year I’ve decided to track all of this activity in this Google Sheet.  Feel free to use it to follow along and create your own temporary filters on it.  Long-term, I’m planning to revamp all of our trackers.

You can also check out our free agent list and tracker, where I’ll be adding non-tendered players as the news comes in.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By | at

After a ninth consecutive playoff miss, Phillies owner John Middleton opted to move on from general manager Matt Klentak. Now, two years after Middleton’s infamous “stupid money” comments, the Phillies seem to be putting out signals cautioning against a splashy winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $274MM through 2031
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: $96.25MM through 2024
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $31MM through 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
  • Jean Segura, INF: $29.5MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF: $23MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2022)
  • Scott Kingery, INF/OF: $19MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2024; contract also contains club options in 2025-26)
  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2.5MM buyout of 2022 club option; Herrera is no longer on the 40-man roster)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s been nearly two months since Matt Klentak stepped down as Phillies general manager and accepted a reassignment to another position within the organization, yet we still don’t have any clear indication as to who will take over the reins. President Andy MacPhail, a former general manager of the Twins and Orioles himself, held onto his title amid the team’s front office shuffling, and assistant GM Ned Rice stepped into the GM role on an interim basis.

That pair brings decades of baseball operations experience to the table, but it’s rather befuddling that the next steps remain so unclear. The Phils reportedly gauged interest from Theo Epstein but were rebuffed, as the now-former Cubs president instead prefers to take at least a year away from the game. Former D-backs and Padres GM Josh Byrnes has interviewed, but there’s no indication as to whether he’s being strongly considered by Middleton.

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb suggested in early October that the Phils might wait for MacPhail to retire at the end of the 2021 season before bringing in a hire, but that’s a puzzling approach in and of itself. If the end result of Klentak resigning is that he remains with the organization in a new role while his top lieutenant, Rice, continues to work alongside MacPhail — how much have things truly changed?

Klentak increasingly drew the ire of Phillies fans, with many voicing dissatisfaction regarding the team’s stalled extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now a free agent after rejecting a qualifying offer. That seems like misplaced frustration, frankly, as the final say on whether to pay Realmuto on a long-term arrangement lands with ownership, not the general manager. Over the past several months, most reports out of Philadelphia have suggested that the team is not optimistic about its chances to retain Realmuto.

If Realmuto walks, that seems like a Middleton-driven decision that would have happened regardless of who is in the GM’s chair. Yet at the press conference announcing the changing of the guard in the front office, Middleton almost seemed to endeavor to take credit for approving the Realmuto swap without taking blame for the failure to extend him. “…[M]y position was, I’d be willing to trade Sixto as long as you extend J.T.,” Middleton said at the time. “And if you don’t extend J.T., I wouldn’t trade Sixto.”

There’s a disconnect in those comments, plain and simple. Middleton implies that he held considerable influence over the acquisition of Realmuto but left the matter of an extension solely to his baseball operations outfit. That seems unlikely, and if it’s in fact accurate, that type of inconsistency with regard to autonomy is a failing in and of itself. It’s hard not to wonder if an experienced GM would look on from the outside and be turned off by an owner trying to take credit for the good and shirk responsibility for the bad.

None of this is to say that there weren’t plenty of misfires during Klentak’s time as general manager, of course. The Phillies’ catastrophic bullpen implosion over the past two seasons is glaring, and it seemed no matter what moves the front office made to rectify the situation, the outcome was poor. The signing of Carlos Santana that pushed Rhys Hoskins into an ill-suited left field role clearly did not pay dividends. Jake Arrieta’s three-year deal didn’t work out, either. At the end of the day, a five-year span of no playoff appearances in a big market will be enough to doom any baseball operations leader, as we saw not only in Philadelphia but in Anaheim this winter.

Front office composition aside, however, the bottom line for the Phillies this winter is that they’re not sure who will be catching games for them in 2021. They also have holes at shortstop and, to a lesser extent, in center field. On the pitching side of things, from the back of the rotation to the entirety of the relief corps, questions abound. The Phillies’ ability to strengthen these flaws are dependent on Middleton’s willingness to spend in the wake of 2020 revenue losses, and indications put forth thus far by both the owner and MacPhail have not been encouraging.

“At this time almost every club, honestly, it’s more about reduction of players than it is adding,” MacPhail said in late October (link via The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro). “…But the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even mid term is not very high.” There may be no better indication of the Phillies’ reluctance to spend than the fact that a team with a historically bad bullpen in 2020 allowed Brad Hand to pass through waivers unclaimed at $10MM. (Although, to be fair to the Phils, so did every other club in the game.)

To get a better handle on the Phillies’ outlook in the days and months to come, the payroll as a whole needs to be taken in. The Phils have seven players on guaranteed contracts in 2021 — counting Odubel Herrera, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster but is still owed this year’s salary. That group checks in at a weighty $108.5MM, and the remaining slate of arbitration-eligible players could push the Phils up to nearly $127MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Phillies’ payroll could top $135MM before they make a single addition.

Vince Velasquez and Hector Neris stand out as potential non-tender candidates. Cutting bait on that duo would bring the Phils back into the $125MM range but would also create more holes; Neris has served as the team’s closer in recent seasons, while Velasquez has been a fifth starter despite (at best) inconsistent results.

The Phillies were set to open the 2020 season with a payroll upwards of $186MM, so there’s certainly some breathing room between that mark and this year’s current levels. However, the expectation is that Middleton plans to reduce payroll. There’s no set number that’s been floated, but the assumption clearly should not be that the Phillies will return to those heights in 2021.

For that reason, retaining Realmuto could be a long shot. He’s spoken in the past about advancing the market for catchers, and while it’s nearly impossible to see him topping Joe Mauer’s record eight-year, $184MM contract, he could set his sights on besting Mauer’s average annual value of $23MM. If that’s the case, Realmuto would be an exceptionally steep add for the Phils at this time, even if there’s some backloading of the deal to offset the hit in the early years. Of course, backloading the deal would come with its own complications; the Phils are already paying Harper and Zack Wheeler a combined $49.5MM in 2024, and Middleton may not be keen on locking in upwards of $75MM in salary to three players a whole four years down the road.

Should Realmuto land elsewhere — he’s been connected to the Mets, Blue Jays and Nationals, among other clubs — the market does present alternatives. James McCann and Yadier Molina bring two starting-caliber options to the free-agent pool, and the trade market could feature several names, including manager Joe Girardi’s former Yankees backstop, Gary Sanchez. The Phils are already reported to like McCann as a fallback to Realmuto.

The Phillies’ other question marks on the position-player side of the roster lie up the middle as well. Rookie of the Year finalist Alec Bohm has third base locked down now, and Rhys Hoskins will be back at first base once he’s sufficiently recovered from Tommy John surgery. Less clear, however, is the shortstop situation now that Didi Gregorius is back on the open market in search of a multi-year deal. Such a contract could come from the Phils, of course, but that again is dependent on Middleton’s tolerance for spending this winter. Jean Segura and Scott Kingery are on hand as potential options at second base and shortstop, although Segura doesn’t profile as a strong defensive option at the position at this point.

If the Phillies do bring in a shortstop — be it Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons or another option — they could play Segura at second base and pair Kingery in center field with Adam Haseley. The versatile Kingery struggled immensely at the plate in 2020, although he had a strong 2019 campaign and may have been severely impacted by a pre-season bout with Covid-19.

Kingery declined to make excuses for his poor showing on multiple occasions early in the year but eventually acknowledged that his overall energy level was not back to normal (link via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber). As of mid-August, Kingery was still dealing with repeated shortness of breath and fatigue. It’s easy to imagine a healthier version of Kingery trending back toward 2019’s .258/.315/.474 output, and depending on the extent to which the Phillies plan to reduce payroll, a rebound from him could be one of the keys to their 2021 fate. Kingery was a league-average bat with plus baserunning and average or better glovework at three positions in 2019, after all. Being able to rely on him in center and/or at shortstop could prove pivotal.

If the Phils prefer Kingery/Segura in the middle infield and want to look outside the organization for some outfield help, there are affordable options to pair with Haseley’s lefty bat. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick and Cameron Maybin are all free agents. Enrique Hernandez has a strong track record against southpaws and could provide cover both in center field and around the infield, making him a nice fit (particularly if Bohm needs to spend time at first base early in the year while Hoskins finishes mending).

In the rotation, the Phillies’ need isn’t so dire. Aaron Nola and Wheeler are a formidable one-two punch, with Zach Eflin serving as a reliable source of innings in the third or fourth spot. Top prospect Spencer Howard struggled in 2020 but is still highly regarded. He’ll get another look next year.

That quartet has the makings of a competitive group, but the trade of Nick Pivetta, the possible non-tender of Velasquez and some struggles from prospects elsewhere in the organization all suggest that the Phils could benefit from a low-cost veteran to round out the group. The best course of action could simply be to see which veterans are left standing and willing to accept a low-base deal late in the winter. If they’re willing to spend more for some mid-rotation innings, names like Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Quintana are all available.

Looking at the Philadelphia bullpen, there’s little sign of immediate help for a group that in 2020 was one of the least-effective units in recent history. Several names are already gone — Brandon Workman, David Phelps, Jose Alvarez and Tommy Hunter are free agents. Heath Hembree was outrighted.

While the early market for free-agent starters has been strong, the relief market increasingly looks like an area where the “bloodbath” feared by many agents could manifest. Not only did Hand go unclaimed on waivers, but several seemingly reasonable club options on relievers were instead bought out. The expected glut of non-tenders could add another couple dozen relievers to the market.

For a Phillies club that doesn’t want to spend money but badly needs to add multiple arms to the relief corps, that could prove to be an ideal situation. The Phils could opt to spend big on one reliever and add several cost-effective names to round out the group, or more evenly distribute whatever resources they’re allotted to diversify risk and add several steady, competent arms to the bullpen.

The Phillies have underachieved for years now, and with several glaring holes on the roster and signals that they don’t plan to aggressively fill said needs, they could be in for more of the same. That said, this is still a group with a very talented core. The combination of Harper, Nola, Bohm, Hoskins and Wheeler is a strong start to any roster. If the Phils can shed some salary in creative ways or if Middleton changes course with a more aggressive financial approach, it’s possible to see this team contending.

Flawed as they may have been over the past three seasons, the Phillies have only narrowly missed the postseason each year. The NL East is more competitive than ever now that a young Marlins club is on the rise, but there’s enough talent in the Phillies’ core group to fuel a competitive unit next year if MacPhail/Rice or a new general manager push the right buttons.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

By | at

The Nationals never really got on track in 2020, perhaps because the shortened season didn’t allow them time for the type of turn-around that defined their 2019 championship run.  With a number of key members of that title team heading into free agency, the Nats will look to reload for a return to the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Washington took care of some early business in re-signing Josh Harrison before the free agent market even opened, bringing the veteran utilityman back on a one-year, $1MM deal.  Between retaining Harrison and also adding former Diamondback Yasmany Tomas on a minor league contract for the first base mix, the Nats have taken steps to address an infield that could potentially be quite similar or quite different to 2020’s collection of talent.

We know Trea Turner will be at shortstop, and that Starlin Castro will return from a broken wrist to assume another everyday role, likely at second base.  Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia will both continue to get looks at the MLB level, though Kieboom struggled badly in his first extended taste of Major League action and Garcia didn’t hit much better while filling for Castro at second base.  Harrison provides bench depth at multiple positions, Tomas or rookie Jake Noll could factor into first base, and it’s probably safe to assume that the Nats and longtime first baseman Ryan Zimmerman will explore another one-year pact after Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season.

There’s certainly some room for growth here, which is why the Nationals have reportedly checked in on two major names in DJ LeMahieu and Kris Bryant.  Both players have been Nats targets in the past, though LeMahieu has a much bigger price tag now than he did in his previous trip through free agency in the 2018-19 offseason, and landing Bryant could require some tricky negotiating with the Cubs.  With Bryant coming off a down year, only one year of club control remaining and an $18.6MM projected arbitration salary in that final year, Chicago’s asking price for Bryant has surely lowered since last offseason.  But, these same concerns could also lead the Nationals to prefer LeMahieu as a longer-term answer.

Of course, the x-factor is whether or not the Nats will spend on higher-priced talent, as recent reports suggest players like LeMahieu or Bryant might not be on the radar.  It isn’t yet known whether GM Mike Rizzo will have the financial resources to make any significant additions, or if the front office will just have to avoid the top shelf in offseason shopping endeavors.

All of Washington’s free agents account for over $40MM in salary coming off the books, and the Nats also save in pure 2021 dollars since so much of the salaries owed to Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are deferred.  That said, D.C. has a projected payroll of just under $170MM for 2021 with a luxury tax number roughly $163.9MM, so ownership may not want to stretch that significant budget much further.  One would imagine the Nationals also still want to set aside future payroll space for potential long-term extensions with Turner and Juan Soto, and the Nats will likely have some conversations with Scherzer about his future as he enters his final year under contract.

Until we get more of an idea about what the team is willing to spend, thoughts of acquiring LeMahieu, Bryant, or perhaps J.T. Realmuto may have to go on the backburner.  That said, the unsettled nature of Washington’s position player mix gives Rizzo some flexibility in looking for upgrades.

The Nats have the freedom to acquire a one-position type — hypothetically, let’s say Kolten Wong at second base — to lock down a single position and go from there, or they could give manager Dave Martinez even more options for late-game maneuvering by adding other multi-positional players.  While Harrison is already back in the fold, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Nationals looked to re-sign another of its veteran free agents (i.e. Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brock Holt) to further add depth.

The outfield also represents an area of need, as the Nats declined Adam Eaton’s option and opened up a hole in either left or right field.  Soto will probably remain in his customary left field spot, though the superstar has played some right field and could change positions if the Nats landed a solid left fielder.  Victor Robles remains the incumbent center fielder after a bout of COVID-19 led to a brutal year both offensively and defensively, and the Nationals can only hope that a healthy Robles can rediscover his 2019 form.

It might behoove the Nats to find an outfielder with center field capability just in case Robles struggles again, though Andrew Stevenson might be tabbed for a larger role after posting big numbers in limited at-bats in both 2019 and 2020.  Depending on how big D.C. was willing or able to go with adding outfield help, acquiring Michael Brantley, Jackie Bradley Jr., or Joc Pederson would make some sense (and give Washington another left-handed bat), or the club could opt for a part-timer to share playing time with Stevenson and Harrison.

The presence of a DH spot in National League lineups in 2021 would also help Washington in finding another hitter, allowing for even more time-sharing and position-shifting.  Someone like a Brantley (or a Marcell Ozuna, at the higher end of the market) would be even more of a fit for the District if the universal designated hitter was a sure thing, though a league decision on that front doesn’t appear to be imminent.

Let’s turn to the rotation, where the biggest question is how Strasburg will rebound.  The right-hander tossed only five innings in 2020 due to hand problems that eventually resulted in carpal tunnel syndrome surgery, thus getting his seven-year, $215MM contract off to an ominous start in its first year.  Scherzer and Patrick Corbin were also both more solid in 2020 than their usual excellent selves, and the Nationals surely hope that this dip in form was just temporary and not a sign of decline.

Since Anibal Sanchez’s option wasn’t exercised, Erick Fedde, Austin Voth, Joe Ross (who opted out of the 2020 season) and Wil Crowe are all in the mix for the fourth and fifth starter’s jobs.  Particularly since there might be some doubts about the top three starters, the Nationals will certainly look into adding a veteran pitcher to help deepen the rotation.  Trevor Bauer is probably too pricey a fit, but since Bauer might be the only free agent arm who could command a major multi-year deal, D.C. has its pick of several free agents that might require three years at the most.

Names like Masahiro Tanaka or Jake Odorizzi represent the upper tier of remaining available pitchers in the non-Bauer class, and this is another area that represents some fluidity for the Nationals.  If they don’t want to spend a ton of resources on pitching, they could try to find essentially the next Anibal Sanchez — a veteran coming off a good season and with perhaps a couple of red flags on the resume that the Nats don’t feel are a big concern (or can be overlooked).

The bullpen continued to be an issue for Washington, and after investing in Daniel Hudson and Will Harris last winter, the Nats might not want to make more big expenditures on relief pitching.  The team could opt to mostly stand pat and hope that Hudson pitches better as the preferred closing option, or perhaps look out for other closer-capable free agents, or perhaps elevate an internal candidate like Tanner Rainey into more high-leverage moments.  D.C. has already re-signed Aaron Barrett to a minors contract and added minor leaguer Sam Clay on an MLB deal, but some more tinkering (left-handed relief is a particular need) is sure to come as the Nationals try to finally fix their relief corps.

With all the early focus on the Braves’ free agent pitching signings, the Marlins’ hiring of Kim Ng as general manager, the Mets’ expected splurge under new owner Steve Cohen, and the Phillies’ front office machinations, the Nationals have largely flown under the radar this winter.  But, with so many needs around the diamond, the Nats could end up being one of the offseason’s busier teams.  Given Rizzo’s track record of success in both major and seemingly minor acquisitions, possibilities abound for the Nationals in the coming months.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

By | at

Even the game’s largest Covid-19 outbreak couldn’t derail the Marlins’ Cinderella season, as the Fish surprised the league with a 31-29 record and went on to topple the Cubs in the Wild Card round of this year’s expanded postseason format. With a slew of young talent bubbling up to the Majors, newly minted general manager Kim Ng will be aiming to bring the club back to October baseball in 2021.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Marlins’ surprising success in 2020 can be attributed to the team’s enviable collection of young pitching. Right-handers Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Sixto Sanchez each gave strong performances, with Alcantara and Lopez soaking up the most innings. Alcantara, Lopez and Hernandez are all locked into next year’s rotation, manager Don Mattingly said after the Marlins’ postseason run ended. Sanchez’s omission from the mix may surprise some, given his strong rookie effort, although he’ll surely have the opportunity to cement his spot in Spring Training.

Behind that quartet of righties is a mix of intriguing but still unproven arms. Righty Jordan Yamamoto had some success in 2019 but was clobbered in 2020. Prospects Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers all struggled in small samples of work as well. Veteran righty Jose Urena is out of the mix after yesterday’s DFA, although that’s hardly a surprise given that he stood out as one of the game’s likelier non-tender candidates. The Marlins have some intriguing yet-to-debut options (e.g. Edward Cabrera), but their pitching depth was thinned out a bit when they sent Caleb Smith and Humberto Mejia to the Diamondbacks in this August’s Starling Marte trade.

Beyond Alcantara and Lopez, Marlins starters have at best limited track records of MLB success. Even Hernandez, whom Mattingly proclaimed as a member of the rotation, pitched just 25 2/3 solid innings in 2020; in 2018-19, he posted an ERA north of 5.00. The youth and years of team control are obviously appealing, but the Marlins would still be well served to bring in a veteran both to help mentor the staff and to provide some stable innings. Names like Rick Porcello, Martin Perez and south Florida native Mike Fiers are all available if the team’s priority is dependable innings, and there are plenty of interesting names looking for bouncebacks from injured seasons (e.g. James Paxton, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber).

With Kintzler and Boxberger both returning to the market, the Marlins will have some work to do to round out their bullpen. Miami could’ve retained Kintzler at a seemingly reasonable $4MM price point, but there were quite a few solid reliever options declined this year. Perhaps the hope is that recently acquired righty Adam Cimber, another ground-ball specialist, can provide similar production at a fraction of the rate. Miami picked him up from the Indians in exchange for cash, and he’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration. Even with Cimber aboard, it’s likely that the Marlins will talk to Kintzler about coming back at a lower price than his option would have guaranteed.

More intriguing bullpen options will become available after the non-tender deadline. The Marlins seem likely to again look for affordable veteran help to complement their in-house options, particularly with an unsettled mix at the back of the ’pen. Two offseasons ago, the Marlins did quite well on a low-cost, one-year deal with Sergio Romo. Last winter, it was Kintzler. It seems reasonable to expect a similar approach this time around, even with a new GM at the helm.

Turning to the offense, the Marlins have plenty of intriguing youngsters on the cusp of Major League readiness, but struggles behind the plate could lead the club to look outside the organization for upgrades. Jorge Alfaro was a key piece of the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia — along with the aforementioned Sanchez — but he’s yet to solidify himself as the team’s long-term replacement for Realmuto. In two years as a Marlin, Alfaro has a .256/.306/.410 batting line, and both his offense and defense took marked steps back in 2020. By the time the playoffs rolled around, Miami was starting the light-hitting Chad Wallach over Alfaro.

Miami doesn’t figure to spend particularly aggressively in free agency. A Realmuto reunion is off the table, but any of the market’s second-tier options — James McCann and Yadier Molina headline the group — could seemingly fit into the budget for a team whose current payroll projection check in shy of $60MM now that Urena no longer factors into the mix. Additional trades or non-tenders could yet lower that mark.

The trade market could offer myriad other possibilities. Many Marlins decision-makers have Yankees roots and are familiar with Gary Sanchez. There’s bound to be speculation about the Cubs moving Willson Contreras as they look to cut costs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explored the reasons that San Diego might move Francisco Mejia. The Blue Jays have a glut of catchers on their 40-man roster.

Looking up and down the rest of the lineup, the needs aren’t as palpable. The outfield should be more or less set with Corey Dickerson’s contract locking him into left field and Starling Marte set to return as the primary center fielder. Garrett Cooper hit well in 2020, but if he falters in right field, the Marlins are rife with corner-outfield alternatives; any of Jon Berti, Monte Harrison, Harold Ramirez, Magneuris Sierra, Jesus Sanchez or Lewis Brinson could earn an increased role there.

If somehow that entire bunch struggles, the club could always consider moving third baseman Brian Anderson back to right field. Between Berti, Miguel Rojas, Isan Diaz and Jazz Chisholm, the Fish should be able to cover third base, shortstop and second base even if Anderson is needed in the outfield. It’s possible the Marlins still bring in a versatile veteran infielder, if only so they have the option of allowing both Diaz and Chisholm to continue to develop in Triple-A without compromising their bench mix.

Over at first base, the Marlins got a big rebound performance out of Jesus Aguilar and will surely tender him a contract after he raked at a .277/.352/.457 clip with eight long balls in 216 trips to the dish. Should he sustain an injury or see his 2019 struggles recur, the Marlins could turn things over to Cooper or dip into the farm and call on prospect Lewin Diaz to get an earnest look at first base.

Given the wealth of young options in both the infield and the outfield, a major addition at any position other than catcher seems unlikely. Minor league depth signings and a veteran bench piece to add to either the infield or outfield mix — possibly both, if the target is someone like old friend Enrique Hernandez — make plenty of sense for the Marlins. However, this is a club whose collection of position players simply needs some time to audition for the front office.

The pitching side of things presents a bit more of an opportunity for some veteran pickups, but again, there are several key young players in place and others who are ready for a chance to show they belong in the conversation as long-term building blocks.

Had there been a traditional season with expected revenue streams and ample time for said young players to get their feet wet in the Majors and upper minors, the Marlins’ outlook might be a bit different. They’d have a better sense of who is and who isn’t vital to their long-term competitiveness and would perhaps have a better idea of where they need to spend in the long run. Given that they remarkably don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books for the 2022 season, the Marlins might have been considered a dark horse to again splash around with some notable free-agent spending.

That doesn’t seem as likely now with a year of zero revenue and with so many young questions to be answered. Still, that blank slate on the 2022 payroll is worth bearing in mind both as the 2021 trade deadline approaches and as next offseason looms. If the organization’s younger options aren’t cutting it, this is a team with such a wide-open financial outlay that they could take on salary either via trade or (next winter) free agency. The Fish have reached the point where they’ll look to rise from NL East cellar dweller to a legitimate threat in what could be the game’s most competitive division race for several years to come.

Trade Candidate: Francisco Mejia

By | at

The Padres overhauled their catching mix at the August 31 trade deadline, acquiring Austin Nola and Jason Castro in separate trades with the Mariners and Angels, while Luis Torrens went to Seattle as part of the Nola trade and Austin Hedges was sent to the Indians as part of the trade return for Mike Clevinger.

The end result was that Francisco Mejia was the only catcher who entered and exited deadline season in a Padres uniform, though he wasn’t on the active roster.  Mejia was on the injured list due to a thumb contusion and, once activated, he played in only one more MLB game before being sent to the Padres’ alternate training site.  As we get deeper into the offseason, it’s fair to wonder whether that one September game (a pinch-hit appearance on Sept. 16) might also mark Mejia’s final outing as a Padre.

Nola is still the projected starter, but recent reports from Yadier Molina himself have connected San Diego to Molina’s free agent market.  Star catching prospect Luis Campusano also made his big league debut in 2020 and, perhaps tellingly, was included on the Padres’ postseason roster over Mejia as the third catcher.  However, Campusano’s status is currently up in the air following an October arrest for felony marijuana possession.

Given the uncertainty over Campusano and the chances that Molina could sign elsewhere, it’s quite possible that the Friars could simply hang onto Mejia and use him as Nola’s backup.  (If not Molina, another veteran catcher could be signed as further depth, perhaps to a minor league deal rather than the MLB contract Molina will demand.)  If the Padres did sign Molina or another noted veteran catcher, however, Mejia could suddenly be expendable.

It was back in July 2018 that Mejia was a much more prominent trade chip, as he was sent from the Indians to the Padres in exchange for both Brad Hand and Adam Cimber.  At the time, Mejia was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season.  Over an even 2200 career plate appearances at the minor league level, Mejia has hit .295/.349/.462 with 58 home runs and looked all the world like a player ready for the Show.

Even in 2019, Mejia performed well enough in his first extended taste of Major League action that he seemed to be living up to the prospect hype.  Despite two separate IL stints due to a knee sprain and an oblique strain, Mejia still hit a respectable .265/.316/.438 over 244 PA in 2019.  Unfortunately, Mejia couldn’t come close to this form last season, hitting just .077/.143/.179 in 42 PA — with Hedges posting equally dismal numbers, it isn’t surprising that San Diego chose to shake up their catching corps at the deadline.

Mejia only turned 25 last month and is still close enough to his blue-chip prospect days that he would certainly generate some interest on the trade market.  Any number of teams would like to upgrade their catching situation, ranging both from rebuilding clubs to would-be contenders.  The Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Brewers, Reds, Angels, or Cardinals are some of the names in the latter group, and the two New York teams, St. Louis, and Anaheim have also been linked to Molina.

While lots of teams need catching, one of the outstanding questions about Mejia is whether or not he’ll ultimately stick at catcher over the long term.  Mejia saw some action as a corner outfielder when he was in Cleveland’s farm system, and he also played four MLB games as a left fielder for the Padres in 2019.  Obviously Mejia’s bat carries more value at catcher than at any other position, though showing an ability to at least passably play on the grass might not hurt Mejia’s trade value all that much, given how multi-positional versatility is so prized by modern front offices.

The Padres’ interest in Molina shows that the club has at least some inclination to alter its catching mix yet again, so this might be the position to watch since San Diego is otherwise pretty set elsewhere around the diamond.  Rather than again deal from their deep farm system, the Padres could prefer to move an MLB-ready player like Mejia who might be in need of a change of scenery.

Transaction Retrospection: Tigers’ Jordan Zimmermann Signing

By | at

On this date five years ago, the Tigers agreed to terms with Jordan Zimmermann on a five-year, $110MM deal. The Wisconsin native expressed a preference to return to the Midwest after spending the first eight-plus years of his pro career in the Nationals’ organization.

At the time, Zimmermann looked a reliable bet to log #2 starter caliber production. Between 2013-15, the right-hander had tossed 614.2 innings of 3.19 ERA/3.27 FIP ball for Washington. He wasn’t overpowering, but Zimmermann threw a ton of strikes, avoided barrels, and punched out enough batters to become a high-end starter. If anything, the deal looked a bit team-friendly at the time of signing. Entering the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had projected Zimmermann to pull down $126MM over six years.

Unfortunately, things didn’t play out anywhere near as hoped. Zimmermann went on the injured list twice in 2016 and was limited to 105.1 innings of 4.87 ERA ball that first season. Things continued to trend down from there. Over the next three seasons, Zimmermann managed just a 5.80 ERA, with opposing hitters posting a .299/.339/.518 line against him. He missed almost all of this past season after being diagnosed with a forearm strain but finished the year healthy.

Zimmermann is now a free agent, and he’ll almost certainly have to work his way back onto a team’s roster via a minor-league deal. As of May, the 34-year-old said he had no interest in retiring any time soon.

2020 Non-Tender Candidates

By and | at

More than 200 MLB players are currently eligible for arbitration, meaning they are on a team’s 40-man roster and have enough service time to have their salaries determined through the longstanding backward-looking system.  At the low end, this includes players who qualify for Super Two status, the exact cutoff for which is not known yet for 2020.  The Super Two cutoff typically falls around two years and 130 days (written as 2.130) but has fallen as low as 2.115 last year.  The high end of service time would be anyone short of the six years needed to qualify for free agency, even one day shy like Kris Bryant.

Potentially arbitration eligible players have been getting pared from 40-man rosters since the offseason began, but those that remain will be subject to the non-tender deadline.  This deadline is at 8pm ET on Wednesday, December 2nd.  By that point, teams must inform arbitration-eligible players whether they will receive a non-guaranteed contract for the 2020 season, or else become free agents. Once a player is tendered a contract, the two sides will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings kick off in February. Non-tendered players immediately become free agents who can sign with another team for any amount.  Those will be added to our free agent list and tracker.

There is a general expectation among baseball writers that this year, arbitration eligible players will be cut loose in record numbers due to teams’ financial losses in 2020 and uncertainty for 2021.  Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs recently explored recent historical non-tender data, suggesting that the number of players being cut at the deadline already has been on the rise.  My guess is that we’ll see a handful of players cut that normally wouldn’t be, but nothing wildly abnormal.

As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially choose not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10 percent chance of a non-tender, but this year I’ve included some long shots who are probably less likely than that.

It should also be noted that some of these non-tender candidates will be traded prior to the December 2nd deadline rather than simply cut loose. Some could also be claimed by another team on waivers.  Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projected salary and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.  This is known as a pre-tender contract.  Multiyear extensions are another possibility.

Determining arbitration salaries will be especially difficult this offseason, which I’ve written about here.  That difficulty also applies to the arbitration salary projections Matt Swartz provides each year for MLBTR, which can be found here.  In this list, I’ve provided Matt’s “Method 3” arbitration projections.  On to our list of non-tender candidates:

Catchers

Curt Casali, Reds ($1.8MM)
Elias Diaz, Rockies ($850K)
Austin Hedges, Indians ($3.0MM)
Omar Narvaez, Brewers ($2.9MM)
Gary Sanchez, Yankees ($5.5MM)
Pedro Severino, Orioles ($1.4MM)
Tony Wolters, Rockies ($2.0MM)

First Basemen

Danny Santana, Rangers ($3.6MM)

Second Basemen

Hanser Alberto, Orioles ($2.6MM)
Johan Camargo, Braves ($1.9MM)
Greg Garcia, Padres ($1.6MM)

Shortstops

Orlando Arcia, Brewers ($2.8MM)
Erik Gonzalez, Pirates ($1.2MM)
Niko Goodrum, Tigers ($1.6MM)
Daniel Robertson, Giants ($1.1MM)
Pat Valaika, Orioles ($1.1MM)

Third Basemen

Kris Bryant, Cubs ($18.6MM)
Travis Shaw, Blue Jays ($4.5MM)

Left Fielders

Tommy Pham, Padres ($8.0MM)
Eddie Rosario, Twins ($9.6MM)
Kyle Schwarber, Cubs ($7.9MM)

Center Fielders

Albert Almora, Cubs ($1.575MM)
Delino DeShields, Indians ($2.1MM)
Brian Goodwin, Reds ($2.7MM)
Guillermo Heredia, Mets ($1.3MM)

Right Fielders

Ben Gamel, Brewers ($1.7MM)
Nomar Mazara, White Sox ($5.7MM)
Tyler Naquin, Indians ($1.8MM)
Jace Peterson, Brewers ($700K)

Designated Hitters

Jose Martinez, Cubs ($2.1MM)
Daniel Vogelbach, Brewers ($1.4MM)

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Anderson, Giants ($3.7MM)
Yonny Chirinos, Rays ($1.6MM)
Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies ($1.2MM)
Jon Gray, Rockies ($5.9MM)
Robert Gsellman, Mets ($1.3MM)
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox ($1.7MM)
Steven Matz, Mets ($5.1MM)
Carlos Rodon, White Sox ($4.5MM)
Jose Urena, Marlins ($3.9MM)
Vince Velasquez, Phillies ($4.0MM)

Right-Handed Relievers

Justin Anderson, Angels ($700K)
Matt Andriese, Angels ($1.9MM)
Shawn Armstrong, Orioles ($800K)
Matt Barnes, Red Sox ($4.1MM)
Ryan Brasier, Red Sox ($1.0MM)
John Brebbia, Cardinals ($800K)
Austin Brice, Red Sox ($700K)
Luis Cessa, Yankees ($1.1MM)
Adam Cimber, Indians ($800K) – designated for assignment
A.J. Cole, Blue Jays ($800K)
Jairo Diaz, Rockies ($800K)
Seranthony Dominguez, Phillies ($900K)
Carlos Estevez, Rockies ($1.5MM)
Michael Feliz, Pirates ($1.1MM)
Trevor Gott, Giants ($700K)
Ben Heller, Yankees ($700K)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees ($900K)
Corey Knebel, Brewers ($5.125MM)
Luke Jackson, Braves ($1.9MM)
Joe Jimenez, Tigers ($1.0MM)
Keynan Middleton, Angels ($900K)
Colin Rea, Cubs ($1.0MM)
Hansel Robles, Angels ($3.9MM)
Nick Tropeano, Mets ($700K)
Dan Winkler, Cubs ($900K)

Left-Handed Relievers

Scott Alexander, Dodgers ($1.0MM)
Alex Claudio, Brewers ($2.0MM)
Grant Dayton, Braves ($800K)
Wandy Peralta, Giants ($1.0MM)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs ($1.2MM)
Chasen Shreve ($800K)

Mel Rojas Jr. Drawing Interest After MVP-Caliber KBO Season

By | at

The MLB legacy of the Alou/Rojas family runs deep.  Felipe and Matty Alou made multiple All-Star teams in the 60s, with Jesus joining them on the 1963 Giants for the first all-brother outfield.  Felipe would further his reputation as the longtime manager of the Expos and Giants.  Moises would become an even better MLB player than his father Felipe, racking up six All-Star appearances and MVP votes in seven seasons.  And don’t forget Felipe’s other son, Luis, who was requested by MLB to use the surname on his birth certificate.  Luis Rojas now serves as manager of the Mets.

Moises’ cousin, Mel Rojas, pitched in the Majors in the 90s for the Expos and other clubs, racking up 126 saves in his big league career.  Mel Rojas Jr., however, hasn’t yet seen MLB success.  Mel Jr., 31 in May, was drafted by the Pirates in the third round in 2010 as a switch-hitting outfielder out of Wabash Valley College in Mount Caramel, Illinois.  At his MLB prospect peak, Rojas was ranked 23rd among Pirates prospects by Baseball America before the 2011 season.  BA wrote, “Some see him as having five-tool potential, though with no true plus tool, but others see him as a tweener who won’t be able to remain in center and may not hit enough for a corner.”

Rojas topped out at Triple-A in the Pirates organization, and was traded to the Braves in 2016 for cash considerations.  In 2017, he decided to reboot his career by signing with a KBO team, the KT Wiz.  After four strong years in Suwon, Rojas is back on the radar for MLB teams.  He appears on track for the KBO MVP award tomorrow after nearly winning the Triple Crown in 2020, boasting a .349/.417/.680 line with 47 home runs and 135 RBI in 628 plate appearances.  Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions recently provided a scouting report on Rojas.

Rojas is represented by his cousin Jay Alou, son of Jesus Alou.  Rojas fits best as a right fielder, and would require a Major League deal to return to the United States.  As Rojas said to Kyle Koster of The Big Lead back in July, “If I win the MVP, I’m for sure getting a big-league contract. It would mean everything to me, and I’m not just saying that.”  He earned $1.5MM in 2020, and is looking to top that amount.  The Wiz would like to retain him, but Rojas is also drawing interest from three MLB teams as well as three Japanese clubs.

The question is how Rojas’ KBO video game numbers would translate to MLB.  Rojas explained the difference in his interview with Koster: “Honestly, it’s harder to hit against Koreans than Americans sometimes. The average speed over here is 88-90 mph but it gets there quick and looks faster than it is. They’re very sneaky.”  Rojas hasn’t mashed at the level of Eric Thames, who peaked at a 216 wRC+ in KBO and landed a three-year, $16MM deal with the Brewers four years ago.  Thames has a 113 wRC+ in the Majors since returning, doing most of his damage against right-handed pitching.

When FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski translated Rojas’ 2019 KBO season to its MLB equivalency, his .322/.381/.530 line in KBO became .266/.314/.448 in MLB.  That’s pretty similar to the work of an Eric Hosmer or Renato Nunez the last couple of seasons, though Rojas upped his game in 2020.  Unlike someone like Thames, Rojas has the ability to play the corner outfield capably, and appears to have the arm for right field.  A low-level MLB deal does seem possible for Rojas, but he’d likely have to wait until after Wednesday’s non-tender deadline when teams will have a better picture of who’s available.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By | at

The reigning American League champions will deploy their usual strategy of tight payroll management and canny roster maneuvering as they look to take the final step of capturing a World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Blake Snell, SP: $39MM through 2023
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $26MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $21.5MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025; Rays also hold $11.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: $7MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s possible that in a normal 2020 season with fans in the stands and some extra postseason revenue in hand, the Rays might have taken the plunge in exercising Charlie Morton’s $15MM option.  Or, it’s just as possible that the Rays would have declined the option anyway, since trying to maximize value on any available payroll space is just how the team does business.  This includes even tough decisions like parting ways with Morton, who delivered nothing but good results over his two years in Tampa Bay.

Given the Rays’ 226-158 record over the last three seasons and the fact that they finished just two games shy of a World Series title, it’s hard to argue with the club’s methods.  It also makes their offseason moves both somewhat easy and somewhat difficult to predict.  Obviously we can rule out any big free agent signings or acquisitions of high-salaried stars (without another big contract going back in return), yet pretty much anything else besides a Wander Franco trade is conceivably on the table.

For instance, it isn’t surprising that the Rays are open to discussing Blake Snell in trade talks.  Should any future reports indicate that Tampa Bay is floating other guaranteed-salary players like Kevin Kiermaier, Yoshi Tsutsugo, or even Brandon Lowe in discussions with other teams, that also shouldn’t raise eyebrows.  It remains to be seen if Snell or any of this group will actually be dealt, but GM Erik Neander has shown he is willing to deal even premium players for less-heralded talents who are much less expensive but end up being comparably productive.

Let’s begin with the rotation, which is the most natural area of need with Morton gone.  The Rays had hopes of bringing Morton back on a lesser salary, but the veteran found another $15MM in the form of a one-year deal with the Braves.  That leaves Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Tyler Glasnow, and likely Josh Fleming as the projected top four starters, with a host of candidates for the fifth spot.  Prospects Shane McClanahan and Joe Ryan are on the cusp of big league action — McClanahan debuted in this year’s postseason — and the hope is that former top prospect Brent Honeywell Jr. might finally be healthy after three years lost to major injuries.  Brendan McKay isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery, but is penciled in to pitch at some point in 2021.

While the Rays have shown they’re comfortable putting young starters into high-leverage positions, it’s probably safe to assume the team will look to add at least one veteran to the mix.  We can likely rule out any eight-figure average annual salaries for that next veteran — Morton’s two-year, $30MM deal was a surprise — but several interesting names could emerge as candidates for lower-cost one-year deals.  These free agents could be attracted at the idea of pitching for a contender.

Tampa figures to look into acquiring a veteran to the relief corps as well, probably a left-hander since the club’s current bullpen mix tilts to the right.  Jose Alvarado is a potential non-tender and Aaron Loup is a free agent, so there would certainly be room for more southpaw help.  But, the Rays will likely continue to rely on their farm system and their ever-active shuttle of fresh Triple-A pitcher to fill out their pitching staff, whether it’s starters, relievers, or openers.

Trading from this minor league depth is a definite possibility, if perhaps a less of an option for the Rays this offseason than in past winters.  Between all of their pitching injuries last season and Morton’s departure, the Rays might prefer to keep most of their young arms in the fold rather than openly offer them as trade chips, though naturally that wouldn’t stop Neander and company from moving a pitching prospect if the right offer emerged.

In what has become almost an annual offseason tradition, the Rays will again be looking for catching help.  Mike Zunino’s option was declined, Michael Perez was claimed by the Pirates, and Kevan Smith elected free agency, leaving Tampa Bay without a single catcher who appeared in a game for them in 2020.  It’s possible Zunino could be re-signed at a lower cost than his $4.5MM option, though even if he is brought back, the Rays would be in some sense settling for a catcher who offers quality defense but whose offense has cratered over the last two seasons.  Prospect Ronaldo Hernandez could get a look but is more likely to be broken in as a backup rather than thrust into a regular role.

There aren’t many truly expensive options within the free agent catching market, so the Rays could make a signing and land another one-year stopgap behind the plate.  If Tampa Bay did decide to trade from its prospect depth, it could be argued that they should be using that trade capital to find a more longer-term catching option.  There aren’t many teams with a surplus of young catching, of course, but the Padres or Dodgers seem like speculative trade partners.  Since the Cubs seem open to trading any veteran making a significant salary, Willson Contreras would also seem like a trade target, though Contreras’ projected $5.6MM arbitration salary might give the Rays some pause.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Randy Arozarena’s status is up in the air given his recent detainment due to an alleged domestic incident.  Details are still scarce about the exact nature of the incident or what charges Arozarena may face, though legal issues aside, Arozarena may still face a possible suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

The outfield was probably already going to be a target area since Hunter Renfroe was let go, but if Arozarena could also miss time, the Rays would have a starting outfield of Manuel Margot, Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips as a potential fourth outfielder, and Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Mike Brosseau all getting some time in the corner spots.  (Prospect Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay’s first-round pick in 2016, could also make his MLB debut in 2021.)  A right-handed hitting outfielder would be a solid addition to that collection, and Arozarena’s situation could determine whether that outfielder is more of a part-timer, or a potential everyday type.

The Rays are pretty set around the infield, but it would fit Neander’s M.O. to trade any of these players if a (more) inexpensive upgrade could be found elsewhere.  Depending on how the Rays feel about Nate Lowe’s readiness as a regular, it’s possible Ji-Man Choi could be replaced as the primary left-handed first base option, though Choi’s $1.6MM projected arbitration number isn’t onerous even for Tampa.

With so many controllable infielders already on hand, the Rays might feel more comfortable about moving some infield prospects in trade talks.  Franco obviously isn’t going anywhere, but the likes of Vidal Brujan, Taylor Walls, or Xavier Edwards would definitely get the attention of other clubs.

Franco’s development looms over the Rays’ infield plans, and while he doesn’t even turn 20 years old until March and has yet to play above high-A ball, it wouldn’t be a shock if he made his big league debut before 2021 was over.  Rays coaches and staffers did get a chance to evaluate Franco against higher-level talent at the team’s alternate training site over the summer, and Tampa has been aggressive in promoting its top prospects in the past.  This all said, the smart money is on Willy Adames continuing to hold down the fort at shortstop while Franco gets another year of development under his belt.

Pre-pandemic, Tampa Bay had a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $72.5MM.  Counting guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and minimum salaries for pre-arb players, the Rays have approximately $63.68MM committed to their 2021 payroll.  Considering revenue losses, getting back up to even the $70MM threshold seems like a stretch, leaving Neander (as usual) without many extra funds on hand this winter.  The Rays front office’s ability to thrive within limited financial parameters will again be tested, but with much of a pennant-winning core already in place, Tampa could be just a piece or two away.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top