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Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

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After breaking down how last season’s five lowest-scoring offenses look now, we’ll do the same here with the five rotations that allowed the most earned runs in 2020…

Tigers (6.37 ERA/5.53 FIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.91 BB/9):

  • The Tigers received solid production from Spencer Turnbull and … nobody else last season. Matt Boyd, who was a coveted trade chip before the campaign, imploded; Michael Fulmer had a rough year in his return from Tommy John surgery; and high-end prospects Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize couldn’t keep runs off the board. Turnbull, Boyd and Fulmer are all coming back in 2021, while Skubal, Mize and fellow prospect Matt Manning should factor into the mix. Detroit also has a newcomer in former Marlins starter Jose Urena, whom the Tigers signed to a $3.25MM guarantee late last month. Urena was effective in Miami from 2017-18, but his numbers have gone off the rails since then.

Angels (5.52 ERA/4.78 FIP, 8.68 K/9, 3.52 BB/9):

  • Over two months into the offseason, Angels fans are surely awaiting the acquisition of a high-profile starter. The team hasn’t done anything to improve its rotation thus far, though the group isn’t devoid of potential as it is. Dylan Bundy enjoyed a long-awaited breakout in 2020 – his first year as an Angel – Andrew Heaney stayed healthy and performed pretty well, and Griffin Canning had a promising sophomore season. Those three are locks for starting jobs in 2021, but the rest is up in the air (will Shohei Ohtani finally regain his health as a pitcher? Will Jaime Barria stick in the rotation after a bounce-back season?). With that in mind, odds are the Angels will add a starter before next season, whether that means splurging on Trevor Bauer or shopping at lower tiers of the market.

Braves (5.51 ERA/4.98 FIP, 8.01 K/9, 4.04 BB/9):

  • The Braves’ status as a bottom-feeding rotation is deceiving because of the injury adversity they faced. They barely got anything from Mike Soroka, a 2019 ace who tore his Achilles early in the season, while Cole Hamels pitched once (on Sept. 16) because of nagging arm issues. Soroka will be back next season to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson as one of the best young trios in the game next season. Hamels is now on the open market and unlikely to return, but the Braves replaced him with veteran standout Charlie Morton in free agency. They also grabbed Drew Smyly on the market. While Smyly has gone through an up-and-down career, in part because of injuries, he was terrific as a Giant in 2020. The Braves are banking on Smyly continuing to roll in their uniform.

Nationals (5.38 ERA/5.17 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):

  • As was the case with the division-rival Braves, the Nationals’ rotation couldn’t get through 2020 without key injuries. There wasn’t a more notable victim than Stephen Strasburg, who threw all of five innings after winning 2019 World Series MVP honors and re-signing with the Nats on a seven-year, $245MM contract. The good news is that Strasburg is on track for next season after undergoing surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. If healthy, Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin should return to being an elite trio. There are some issues after those three, however. Joe Ross will come back after opting out last season, but he posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each year from 2017-19. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth were tattooed in similar fashion in 2020. General manager Mike Rizzo has spoken this winter of adding a No. 4/5 type of starter, which seems like a necessity.

Mets (5.37 ERA/4.21 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):

  • The Mets were yet another NL East team whose rotation battled health-related misfortune in 2020. Noah Syndergaard didn’t take the mound after undergoing TJ surgery in March, while the team also got zero contributions from Marcus Stroman because of an opt out. Things are looking better for 2021, though, with Syndergaard set to return at some point (perhaps in June) and Stroman coming back after accepting the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer. Stroman, all-world ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson are in line for starting spots at the opening of next season. The same could potentially be said of Steven Matz, whom the Mets elected against non-tendering, though he was terrible in 2020. Thanks in part to Matz’s struggles last year, it seems likely the Mets will pick up at least one established starter in the coming months. Bauer seems like a possibility when considering new owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, but even someone like Jake Odorizzi or Masahiro Tanaka could go a long way in bolstering New York’s rotation.

The Complexity Of Trading Kevin Kiermaier

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The Rays entered the offseason with just two players making more than $10MM per year, and in case you’ve been hiding in a cave far, far from the Internet, they already traded one of them this week. With Blake Snell now in San Diego, rumors immediately shifted to the team’s other most expensive player: center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that Kiermaier is “next on the trade block” for the Rays, although while the Rays may still hope to shed additional payroll, that’s too simplistic a characterization of what should be a more layered discussion.

First up in any discussion of the 30-year-old Kiermaier will always be his defensive wizardry. His penchant for highlight-reel dives and wall-scaling home run robberies is well known. Frequent diving catches don’t make someone a defensive master, necessarily; some players will need to dive on plays that shouldn’t be that difficult in order to compensate for a poorly run route or a bad read off the bat. That’s rarely the case with Kiermaier, though, who has ranked in the 89th percentile or better in each of the past four seasons by measure of Statcast’s “Outfield Jump” metric. Kiermaier has been in the 91st percentile or better in Statcast’s average sprint speed in each of those four years as well.

Kevin Kiermaier | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Dating back to 2017, Kiermaier ranks fourth among big league players, at any position, with 58 Defensive Runs Saved. Mookie Betts is the only outfielder who tops him. Matt Chapman and Andrelton Simmons, both infielders by trade, are the other two. That trio, on average, has played 815 more innings in the field during that stretch than Kiermaier, however. As such, there’s a very real argument that on a per-inning/per-game basis, Kiermaier is the most impactful defensive player in baseball. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric dates back to 2017, and as with DRS, Kiermaier is elite. He ranks fifth among 487 outfielders in that time despite more limited chances in the field.

Of course, those limited chances are part of the knock on Kiermaier. He’s played in just 364 games and taken 1427 plate appearances over the past four seasons combined. While his reckless abandon in the outfield surely dings him up from time to time and requires the occasional off day — particularly given his home park’s artificial surface — that hasn’t been his major issue. Kiermaier has sustained a fractured hip (2017) and a torn ligament in his thumb (2018) while sliding on the basepaths in recent years, both of which have cost him months of action.

It’s somewhat remarkable that the hip injury didn’t have a lasting impact on Kiermaier’s superlative glovework, but it’s certainly fair to wonder to what extent injuries have impacted him at the plate. Consider that from 2014-17, Kiermaier was not only a world-class defender but also an above-average hitter, posting a composite .262/.319/.431 batting line. From 2018-20, however, he’s managed just a .222/.286/.386 slash in 1006 plate appearances.

His 2017 production actually improved upon returning from the hip fracture, so perhaps that shouldn’t be viewed as a major contributor to his offensive decline. The torn ligament in his thumb, however, which occurred in April 2018, may have had a considerably more adverse impact on his output at the plate. Hand and wrist issues that impact a player’s grip can wreak havoc on their mechanics and their production. Perhaps it’s coincidental, but since 2018, Kiermaier’s strikeout rate has jumped five percent and his ground-ball rate has steadily risen.

An optimistic trade partner might think Kiermaier could still return to his ways as an average or better hitter. He walked at a career-best 12.6 percent clip in 2020’s shortened slate of games, which certainly bodes well. Even when accounting for the fact that Kiermaier walked just once in 57 postseason plate appearances, that’s 21 walks in 216 total trips to the plate in 2020 — a 9.7 percent clip that would match his career-high and easily top the 6.5 percent mark he carried into the season.

Kiermaier has also improved his hard-hit and barreled-ball rates over the past couple seasons despite not having much production to show for it. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) — a metric that reflects what a player’s overall offensive output should be, based on frequency and quality of contact — from 2019-20 is right in line with his 2015-17 levels.

Given that, there’s plenty of reason to consider Kiermaier a strong bounceback candidate. Even if he doesn’t rebound at the plate, any team would know it’s getting an elite defender with plus speed to contribute on the bases. The problem for interested parties, of course, is that Kiermaier is paid at a higher rate than a glove-first player of that nature would typically be compensated. He’s owed $26MM over the next two seasons: $11.5MM in 2021, $12.5MM in 2022 and at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM option for the 2023 season.

It’s not an overly burdensome contract, but at a time when teams throughout the league are scaling back on payroll, it’s a notable chunk of cash. That’s all the more true when Kiermaier’s skill set is similar to that of free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. — a player who may not command as much as the two years and $26MM still owed to Kiermaier. Bradley would cost only money for a team seeking a center field boost, and while he’s not a great offensive player, he does have a steadier and more productive track record.

Also problematic is that while Tampa Bay’s trade of Snell to the Padres brought a huge prospect haul, a trade of Kiermaier might resemble more of a salary dump in terms of its return. Some interested teams may even ask the Rays to kick in a bit of cash to cover a portion of the remaining money owed to the 2015 Platinum Glover. For a player of his status in the organization, a straight salary dump would be a tougher sell both to the fans and to the clubhouse.

Given all that context, it’s perhaps not surprising to see MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweet that despite Kiermaier’s availability on the trade market, the chances of a deal coming together “aren’t great.” The Rays have already weakened their 2021 roster by trading away Snell and declining Charlie Morton’s option, and jettisoning Kiermaier for nothing of immediate value (on the heels of a World Series run) would only further diminish their hope of a return postseason bid.

Granted, some of the dollars that had been earmarked for Kiermaier could be invested back into the free-agent pool, but it’s extremely difficult to find a player with Kiermaier’s upside on the open market with the limited resources they’d save in dealing him away. Kiermaier has still topped seven WAR over the past three seasons combined, even with his bat on the decline, and in that aforementioned 2014-17 peak, he checked in at 21 wins above replacement.

Not only is Kiermaier’s ceiling higher than any replacement the Rays would bring into the fold, but the possibility of trading him for pennies on the dollar, only to watch him rebound and send his value soaring, looms larger in this instance. It’s a very different situation than moving Snell when his value was much closer to (or arguably even at) its apex.

I’d expect plenty of rumors regarding the possibility of a Kiermaier trade between now and Opening Day, but for all these reasons (and likely quite a few more), it’s a complicated scenario that should by no means be considered a given. For debate’s sake, let’s tack a poll onto the end of this breakdown and open it for discussion in the comments (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):

Checking In On 2020’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses

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Three of the 2020 campaign’s five lowest-scoring offenses belonged to National League playoff teams, but that’s not an ideal outcome if you truly want to make noise in October. Indeed, all three of those clubs (St. Louis, Cincinnati and Milwaukee) failed to advance beyond the playoffs’ initial round during the fall. So what have they and the league’s other two bottom-feeding offenses done to improve themselves this offseason? Not much, as you’ll see below…

Pirates (219 runs scored, 73 wRC+):

  • The Pirates look even worse on paper than they did at the end of the season, having traded first baseman Josh Bell to the Nationals last week. While Bell had a horrid season in 2020, he was a star-caliber performer during the previous year, in which he slashed .277/.367/.569 with 37 home runs. The Bell-less Pirates haven’t done anything of significance to bolster their offense this winter, but the good news is that they should get a full 2021 (however many games that consists of) from third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who ran roughshod over the league during a scintillating 95-PA debut in 2020. There’s also nowhere to go but up for holdovers such as Gregory Polanco, Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier, who each posted awful numbers last season.

Rangers (224 runs, 67 wRC+):

  • The Rangers have a couple newcomers in outfielder David Dahl and first baseman Nate Lowe, who they hope will improve their attack in 2021. Otherwise, they’ll be counting on bounce-back efforts from the likes of Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, Nick Solak, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. It’s hard to imagine things will get any worse next year for that quintet, though Andrus and Odor have been trending in the wrong direction for years. The Rangers are down enough on Andrus these days that they’re planning on using him as a backup shortstop/utilityman behind Isiah Kiner-Falefa next season.

Cardinals (240 runs, 93 wRC+):

  • The Cardinals’ place in these rankings is deceiving because a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak cost them two full games. Their 93 wRC+ was closer to average than horrendous, but that isn’t to say they don’t have work to do offensively. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielder Harrison Bader, two of their best hitters in 2020, are returning. But Brad Miller, who was second on the team in wRC+ (121), is a free agent. Going by wRC+, those three were the only above-average offensive players on last season’s roster. The Cardinals haven’t done anything thus far to better their offense, even though they’re facing questions almost everywhere. Catcher Yadier Molina is a free agent, as is second baseman Kolten Wong, while most of their outfielders underwhelmed at the plate in 2020.

Reds (243 runs, 91 wRC+):

  • The Reds made a real effort to upgrade their offense last winter in signing Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama. Moustakas wound up having a typical season at the plate, but Castellanos and Akiyama fell short of expectations. Barring trades, no one from that group is going anywhere in 2021. Likewise, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Tucker Barnhart will hang around in key roles. Aside from Winker, who was fantastic in 2020, the Reds will need more from everyone listed in the previous sentence. They also need to upgrade at shortstop, where the largely untested Jose Garcia is their current starter, but it’s unclear whether the team will do so to a satisfactory extent during what has been a cost-cutting winter so far.

Brewers (247 runs, 89 wRC+):

  • We’ll cap things off with another NL Central team, Milwaukee, which has joined its division rivals this winter in doing virtually nothing to better its chances of success in 2021. The Brewers opted against retaining infielder Jedd Gyorko, among their most productive hitters last season, instead paying him a $1MM buyout in lieu of exercising his $4.5MM option. They also declined team icon Ryan Braun’s option, but that was an easy decision because the six-time All-Star would have otherwise earned a $15MM salary in 2021. Braun, to his credit, was roughly a league-average hitter last season, which is more than you can say for most Brewers regulars. Whether or not the Brewers bring in outside help, better years from former NL MVP Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez would go a long way in helping the team tack more runs on the board in 2021.

2021 MLB Arbitration Tracker Now Available

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Trying to keep track of all the arbitration settlements?  Our 2021 MLB Arbitration Tracker has you covered.  The tracker shows all arbitration eligible players, their service time, and their arbitration submission and settlement figures.  You can filter by team, signing status, service time, and more.  The next big date is January 15th, the deadline for teams and players to exchange salary figures.  You can access our 2021 MLB Arbitration Tracker here.

Which Teams Are The Best Fits For J.T. Realmuto?

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There’s a clear top pair of free agent position players available this winter: J.T. Realmuto and George Springer. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff projected five-year, $125MM terms for each, with only starter Trevor Bauer pegged for a higher guarantee. The Blue Jays and Mets are reportedly the strongest possibilities to land Springer, but Realmuto’s market has been less defined to this point. Which teams are in the best position to make a run at the catcher?

A nine-figure deal for Realmuto would be out of character for lower-payroll clubs like the Indians, Marlins, Brewers, Athletics, Pirates and Rays. We can fairly safely rule them out. The rebuilding Orioles aren’t going to make a win-now splash, and the Rangers are selling off pieces this winter.

There are a few more clubs that are generally expected or have already signaled a desire to reduce payroll this offseason. The Reds could stand to upgrade at catcher, but discussions about their offseason have been about subtracting expensive talent, not adding it. The same is true of the division-rival Cubs. There haven’t been many offseason rumblings about the Diamondbacks or Rockies. Both could make sense for Realmuto in theory but it would register as a real surprise if either put forth that kind of offer. The Cardinals are engaged in a contract stalemate with franchise icon Yadier Molina, who would come significantly cheaper. They’re not expected to pivot to Realmuto if talks with Molina fall through.

A handful of others have settled catching situations already. The Mets made sense at the start of the offseason but signed James McCann instead. The Royals and Giants aren’t going to sign Realmuto and displace their respective faces of the franchise. Yasmani Grandal is perhaps the only other catcher in the sport close to Realmuto’s level, so the White Sox are all set. Turning to the remaining thirteen teams:

  • Angels: The Angels have very little certainty behind the plate in Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom. There’s obvious room for an upgrade there, although the Angels are already projected by Roster Resource for a 2021 payroll just $15MM shy of last year’s figure. They still need to upgrade the pitching staff, so it’s possible they roll with a lower-cost group at catcher.
  • Astros: The Astros have bigger needs to address in the outfield and bullpen. They were ruled out as potential Realmuto suitors early in the offseason and are instead in advanced discussions with Jason Castro.
  • Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have seemingly been linked to every big ticket free agent and trade possibility (Realmuto included) this winter. They’re clearly looking to add high-end talent to help the team take a leap into permanent contention, but that might take the form of a Springer signing instead. Young catchers Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk have promise but might not have enough of a track record for a win-now team. They could be moved if Toronto added Realmuto.
  • Braves: This seems highly unlikely. Travis d’Arnaud was excellent in 2020 and GM Alex Anthopolous has shied away from long-term deals since taking over in Atlanta.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers have the flexibility to get into the mix for any elite player. But Will Smith looks like one of the game’s best young catchers. Theoretically, L.A. could sign Realmuto and trade Smith to upgrade other areas of the roster, but that’d be a real stretch.
  • Mariners: The Mariners could be an interesting dark horse to make a splash this offseason. There’s room on the books, particularly long-term, and the Seattle front office has spoken of a desire to compete in 2021 after a few seasons of rebuilding. Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens are a decent in-house tandem, so a Realmuto signing is a longshot. But the Mariners are in position to pounce on players they consider special talents and Realmuto certainly qualifies.
  • Nationals: The Nationals have been in contact with Realmuto’s camp this winter. He’d be a massive upgrade over the team’s current pairing of Yan Gomes and Tres Barrera. It’s uncertain at best, however, that ownership will give GM Mike Rizzo the financial leash to again dish out a market-setting contract for a top free agent.
  • Padres: San Diego acquired Austin Nola at last year’s deadline and seems more likely to look for starting pitching with Mike Clevinger out for 2021 due to a Tommy John surgery.
  • Phillies: Realmuto’s former team doesn’t have an obvious replacement if he departs. They tagged him with a qualifying offer and have reportedly made a contract proposal.
  • Red Sox: Boston is generally expected to prioritize pitching this winter. Christian Vázquez is one of the sport’s better catchers, so this would be a surprise. The Red Sox have the spending capacity to get into the Realmuto mix, but there’s no indication they have any intention of doing so.
  • Tigers: Detroit has no in-house certainty at catcher and the long-term books are pretty open. The Tigers aren’t immediate contenders, making this a weird fit, but the front office could at least explore adding one of the game’s best catchers to work with the prized young pitchers leading the rebuild.
  • Twins: As with the Dodgers and Red Sox, Minnesota could theoretically sign Realmuto and trade their quality in-house options (Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers, in this case) for help elsewhere on the roster. But again, it doesn’t seem especially likely.
  • Yankees: The Yankees have been focused on re-signing DJ LeMahieu to this point. If LeMahieu winds up signing elsewhere, a Realmuto pursuit would be plausible. The Yankees tendered a contract to Gary Sánchez but it’s anyone’s guess what kind of production they can expect after his dismal 2020 season.

The Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Phillies and Yankees seem like the strongest candidates to sign Realmuto, although there are a few long-shot scenarios that could land him in other cities. We’ll turn things over the readership to predict his ultimate destination.

 

(poll link for app users)

 

Transaction Retrospection: Teoscar Hernandez Trade

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Few players raised their stock more this past season than Teoscar Hernández. A competent but unspectacular hitter from 2018-19, Hernández had what looked like a breakout in 2020. Over 207 plate appearances, the Blue Jay outfielder hit .289/.340/.579 with 16 home runs. Along the way, he ranked in the 94th percentile or better in such Statcast metrics as average exit velocity, hard contact, expected weighted on-base average and barrel rate.

Hernández isn’t a flawless player. He’s a below-average defender. He has long had issues making contact, with a career 31.6% strikeout rate only marginally higher than last year’s 30.4%. Moving forward, the 28-year-old looks more like a solid regular than a star in the making. Regardless, Hernández is a valuable and important part of a Toronto roster coming off a berth in the expanded playoffs and looking on the verge of perennial postseason contention.

With that in mind, it’s worth looking back at the deal that landed Hernández with the Jays in the first place. Originally signed as an international amateur by the Astros, Hernández was flipped (alongside veteran outfielder Nori Aoki) to Toronto in advance of the 2017 trade deadline for left-hander Francisco Liriano. To that point, the veteran southpaw had posted just a 5.88 ERA as a starter for the Blue Jays. He had stifled opposing left-handed hitters, though, holding them to a .230/.254/.361 slash line.

The Houston front office thought a bullpen transition, where Liriano could be heavily leveraged against same-handed batters, could make him an asset. With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick all on hand (and Kyle Tucker rapidly climbing the minor-league ladder), the Astros felt they could part with an MLB-ready outfield prospect to acquire a relief weapon. Unfortunately, Liriano continued to scuffle down the stretch, pitching to a 4.40 ERA with an 11:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.1 relief innings as an Astro.

Despite mediocre production from Liriano, the Astros went on to win the World Series. However one feels about the legitimacy of that title after subsequent revelations of Houston’s sign-stealing operation, the team probably wouldn’t undo any specific transaction related to the roster in retrospect. But from a pure value perspective, there’s no question Toronto came out ahead in the swap. Aoki barely played for the team, but Hernández looks to have emerged as a capable everyday performer as the Jays’ new contention window opens. He remains under club control through 2023.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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Our new Free Agent Prediction Contest leaderboard is now available!  Over 4,000 MLBTR readers participated in our November prediction contest.  At this point eight of the top 50 free agents from our contest have signed.  Impressively, one person has correctly predicted the signing teams for five of them.  I’ll be updating this leaderboard as additional signings occur throughout the offseason.

The Rangers’ Joey Gallo Decision

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The Rangers are one of the league’s most obvious sellers this offseason. President of baseball operations Jon Daniels has been open about the organization’s intent to cut payroll and rework the roster in hopes of contending in 2022. They’ve put that into action already, trading Lance Lynn and Rafael Montero for longer-term assets.

Lynn was an obvious trade candidate, as he’s scheduled to hit free agency at the end of next season. Montero is controllable for an additional year, but as a 30-year-old reliever on a team not expecting to immediately contend, he was a sensible player to move. A tougher question for Texas is how to proceed with Joey Gallo.

The 27-year-old Gallo is under control for the next two seasons. He’s projected for a salary in the $5-7MM range this winter and will be eligible for arbitration once more after that. If the Rangers truly believe they can field a contender in 2022, they could elect to proceed year-by-year through arbitration.

There’s a case to be made, though, Texas should approach the Gallo situation more proactively. That could mean him following Lynn and Montero out the door. Texas has made Gallo available to other teams, although it may not be the best time to try to work out a deal. After all, he struggled to a .181/.301/.378 line in 226 plate appearances this past season. An unsustainably low .240 BABIP no doubt played a role in that, but his struggles can’t all be chalked up to bad luck.

Gallo’s already high average launch angle increased by more than four degrees between 2019 and 2020. For many players, that’d be a positive development. Gallo, though, already had an extremely uphill swing path. Hitting the ball higher in the air last season didn’t do him any favors. Gallo’s batting average on airborne contact (fly balls and line drives) dropped from .556 in 2019 to .350 last season. His slugging output had an even more precipitous fall. Making matters worse, Gallo’s average exit velocity fell more than three miles per hour from where it had been in 2018-19.

2020 struggles notwithstanding, the Rangers presumably anticipate Gallo to rebound. In August, Texas manager Chris Woodward called the slugger “by far the best player on the field” in every game he plays. There was a degree of hyperbole in that statement, to be sure, but Woodward’s affinity for Gallo has plenty of merit. Between 2017-19, Gallo hit .217/.336/.533 (120 wRC+) with 103 home runs over 1406 plate appearances. That’s solidly above-average offensive production. And Gallo has consistently rated as a quality outfielder (especially in the corners) and baserunner. Even with one of the league’s highest strikeout rates, Gallo has shown flashes of stardom.

Daniels and newly-minted GM Chris Young have a tough decision with their franchise player coming off a career-worst year. It’s not an ideal time to look for a trade, although there’ll surely be teams that see his off year as an anomaly. Gallo’s young enough that Texas could decide to explore an extension, even with the team taking a step back in 2021. Finding a price point agreeable to both the club and the Boras Corporation client on the heels of a down season might be difficult, though.

So, what course of action should the Texas front office pursue this winter with the 2019 All-Star?

(poll link for app users)

 

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets are off to a fast start under new owner Steve Cohen, but there’s more work to be done this offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

After years under the yoke of the much-maligned Wilpons, Mets fans were understandably thrilled when the duo sold the franchise to Cohen – who became the wealthiest owner in the majors as soon as he took over the club. Cohen continued to excite the fans at his introductory press conference, saying: “I’m not in this to be mediocre. I want something great.”

There was a lot of mediocrity during the Wilpon regime, evidenced in part by the Mets’ four-year playoff drought. The two most recent unsuccessful seasons came under general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, whom the team parted with once Cohen took the reins. Cohen brought back Sandy Alderson, Van Wagenen’s predecessor, as team president. Alderson subsequently hired former Diamondbacks executive Jared Porter as the GM.

Even before Porter entered the fray, the Mets got to work in upgrading their roster. They quickly made a significant free-agent addition in former Twins right-hander Trevor May – one of the most coveted relievers on the market – on a two-year, $15.5MM contract. He’ll join Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Brad Brach and Robert Gsellman as stone-cold locks for next year’s bullpen. While most of the unit is in place, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club further bolster it with at least one more high-profile pickup. The Mets have interest in the No. 1 free-agent reliever available, former Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, though he’s just one possibility. Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, Trevor Rosenthal, Alex Colome, Kirby Yates and Jake McGee represent other notable options in free agency. On paper, Hand or McGee would make sense for a Mets bullpen devoid of left-handers.

May and the rest of the Mets’ relievers will be throwing to newly acquired catcher James McCann – the first big-money position player signing of the Cohen era. McCann struggled earlier in his career with the Tigers, but the proverbial light bulb seemed to come on during the previous two years as a member of the White Sox. Thanks to his vast improvement in Chicago, McCann scored a four-year, $40.6MM guarantee. Maybe he wasn’t the catcher Mets fans were hoping for (J.T. Realmuto is the best backstop in the game and the top free agent at the position), but McCann makes for a nice consolation prize.

It’s fair to say the Mets aren’t going to stop upgrading their offense with McCann. In fact, it’s quite possible they’ll make a far bigger splash in an effort to better their group of position players. There has been no shortage of speculation connecting the team to free-agent outfielder and Connecticut native George Springer, who MLBTR predicts will land a five-year, $125MM contract this winter. The Mets already have a crowded outfield picture with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith, so it’s unclear what a Springer signing would mean for any of them. Regardless, Springer would presumably take over as the Mets’ starting center fielder – a role Nimmo held in 2020.

The infield has also been a source of rumors centering on the Mets, particularly in the wake of Robinson Cano’s season-long suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. That wiped Cano’s massive salary off the books, but it also took away a player who slashed an excellent .316/.352/.544 with 10 home runs in 182 plate appearances last season. That’s going to be a tough void to fill, though the Mets do have a capable in-house replacement in Jeff McNeil. Of course, that’s assuming the Mets don’t keep McNeil in a super-utility role or even use him in a trade. If he’s not their second baseman, they could steal free agent DJ LeMahieu from the Yankees. Other than LeMahieu, there don’t appear to be any second base upgrades over McNeil in free agency or on the trade front.

There is a bit less certainty on the left side of New York’s infield, but that’s not to say it’s in bad shape. Third baseman J.D. Davis continued to hit in 2020 (albeit not as well as he did the prior year), while Andres Gimenez stepped up as a rookie and outperformed Amed Rosario at short. The Mets could simply stick with Davis and Gimenez, but it’s worth noting both positions feature prominent free agents and trade possibilities. LeMahieu and former Met Justin Turner are available as potential third base choices, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons remain unsigned at short.

Trade speculation has pointed the Mets toward Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, who’s due a whopping $199MM over the next years. If acquiring him isn’t in the cards, the Mets could make a splash at short by landing the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story. Both players are under control for just one more season, but considering Cohen is flush with cash, the Mets could conceivably extend either player within the next year. Alderson did indicate earlier in the offseason that he’d prefer to keep his young talent in place, which points more to the free-agent route than a trade. However, he suggested earlier this week that the Mets will be involved in the trade market for high-priced players on long-term contracts (Arenado fits the bill) and players on expiring deals (Lindor and Story check that box).

A year ago at this time, it looked as if the Mets’ rotation would be a major strength in 2020. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were supposed to be among the premier trios in baseball, but that plan went up in smoke before the season even began. Ultimately, deGrom was the only member of the group who threw a single pitch in 2020. Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March, and Stroman opted out because of COVID-19. The Mets aren’t going to get Syndergaard back until sometime next summer, but Stroman will return after accepting their $18.9MM qualifying offer.

DeGrom, Stroman and David Peterson give the Mets three sure bets for their starting staff as they await Syndergaard’s comeback, but the unit still needs work in the meantime. It’s unclear, for instance, whether Seth Lugo will start or go back to the bullpen in 2021. And while the Mets did keep Steven Matz around on a $5.2MM salary, they’d be hard-pressed to count on him in the wake of his awful season.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding Lugo and Matz, expectations are that the Mets will acquire at least one proven starter in the coming months. The arrival of Cohen seems to make the team a realistic suitor for reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, the leading free agent available at any position. The rest of the free-agent starting class isn’t nearly as exciting, though longtime Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber, Adam Wainwright and James Paxton are among accomplished arms looking for jobs. The trade market lost an enticing starter when Lance Lynn went from the Rangers to the White Sox earlier this month, but former Cy Young winner Blake Snell (Rays) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) have the potential to move. Either of those two would help the Mets’ rotation.

Whatever the Mets do for the remainder of the offseason, the Cohen-led organization isn’t going to make moves that hamper their goal of building a perennial winner.

“You build champions, you don’t buy them,” Cohen stated during his introduction. “We’ve got a great core on this team, and we’re going to get better and I plan to make the investments we need to succeed. We want to win now, but we’re also building for the long term.”

Having already spent on May, McCann and Stroman, Cohen has so far lived up to his promise to invest in the roster. It’s anyone’s guess what the Mets will do next, but thanks to their new owner, they’re one of the truly intriguing teams to watch during what has been a slow winter in Major League Baseball.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia

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After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.

The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.

And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.

As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.

It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)

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