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Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By | at April 5, 2022 12:01pm CDT

The Cubs made two big signings and added a ton of veterans on short-term deals as they attempt to move past their 2016 championship core.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs’ first order of business during the 2021-22 offseason was hiring a general manager, after leaving the position under president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer open for nearly a year.  Hawkins had spent 14 years in Cleveland, regarding which Hoyer noted, “certainly their ability to develop pitching has been remarkable.”  Finding pitching late in the draft or cheaply in the marketplace and getting good Major League results had not been a strong suit of the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime.

In addition to improving the pipeline, the Cubs needed pitching to get through the 2022 season, which Hoyer called his “top priority” in early October.  Hoyer spoke about being “active” in free agency, a word echoed by owner Tom Ricketts in a letter to fans.  Hoyer and Ricketts made sure to couch their comments with words like “intelligent” and “thoughtful,” which I took to mean the Cubs would be out on the top dozen or so free agents given a desire to avoid long-term commitments.

After following the Hawkins hire with the additions of Ehsan Bokhari as assistant GM and Greg Brown as hitting coach, the Cubs kicked off their active offseason by claiming veteran lefty Wade Miley off waivers from the cost-cutting Reds.  Given the Cubs’ extremely thin starting rotation at the time behind Kyle Hendricks, snagging Miley off a 3.37 ERA/163 inning campaign without giving up any players was an easy win – even if he doesn’t meet the desire for someone with strikeout ability.  It was the equivalent of an early free agent signing, at a commitment probably a bit lower than what the market would have required.  An injury development has dampened enthusiasm for the Miley claim, as the 35-year-old southpaw is experiencing elbow inflammation that will keep him out until at least late April.

As the lockout approached in late November, the Cubs reportedly made an offer to free agent lefty Steven Matz.  According to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, “The Cubs were heavily involved with Matz, but were unwilling to go to four years,” as the Cardinals ultimately did.  Instead, the Cubs were able to lure Marcus Stroman with a three-year, $71MM offer that was very different from MLBTR’s projected five years and $110MM.  Apparently the pre-lockout market wasn’t offering Stroman four or five years at an AAV he liked, and the Cubs pounced.

The Stroman signing marked the Cubs’ biggest free agent expenditure since they signed Yu Darvish nearly four years earlier.  Like Miley, Stroman still didn’t match Hoyer’s goal of adding strikeout pitchers to the rotation, as Stroman’s success has been built on groundballs and good control.  It was another case of the Cubs adapting to what the market gave them while avoiding long-term commitments, and Stroman should give the team much-needed above-average innings.  They didn’t have to commit to his age 34 and 35 seasons, as the Blue Jays did with Kevin Gausman, or forfeit their second-highest draft pick as they would have with Robbie Ray.

The Cubs also added a pair of position players prior to the lockout, signing catcher Yan Gomes and corner outfielder Clint Frazier.  Gomes, perhaps the best catcher in a weak free agent market at the position, will serve as Willson Contreras insurance in multiple ways.  For as long as the two are together, Gomes will lighten the load on Contreras, who caught two-thirds of the Cubs’ innings behind the plate in 2021 despite missing more than three weeks with a knee sprain.  Gomes also ensures the Cubs will have a capable backstop in the event they trade Contreras between now and the August 2nd deadline.

The Cubs seem to have little desire in extending Contreras, one of the last remaining links to the 2016 championship club.  Thus far, they haven’t even been able to agree on his 2022 salary, and they’re headed toward a midseason hearing over the $1.25MM gap.  Contreras’ free agency will begin with his age-31 season, and he figures to seek at least a four-year deal.  The Cubs have one well-regarded catching prospect in Miguel Amaya.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in November after playing only 23 games in 2021, so Gomes is necessary to bridge the gap.

Frazier is a lottery ticket that makes tons of sense for the Cubs.  The 27-year-old former fifth overall pick cost just $1.5MM, and if he has any measure of success the Cubs can control him through 2024 as an arbitration eligible player.  Frazier hit well in the brief 2020 season, but he’s also dealt with the effects of multiple concussions.  The Cubs’ outfield should offer ample opportunity for Frazier to re-establish himself.

The Cubs’ first post-lockout move was a contract extension for manager David Ross.  After that, it was back to the free agent market.  While fans had visions of Carlos Correa, to whom the Cubs were at least loosely connected, they instead signed Andrelton Simmons to a modest one-year deal.  The 32-year-old defensive wizard will start the season on the IL due to a sore shoulder, putting Nico Hoerner into the starting role.

As for Correa?  His three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins, which includes opt-outs after each season, reportedly came together with the Twins in the span of 14 hours, initiated by agent Scott Boras.  Boras certainly spoke to other clubs during that frenzied late-March period.  Aside from the draft pick forfeiture, Correa’s contract generally fit with the Cubs’ new m.o., but it’s unknown whether they were in the mix late.  As of now, shortstop is an unsettled position for the Cubs for the next several years.

I had mentioned in November that free agent right fielder Seiya Suzuki, one of the best players in Japan and only 27 years old, made sense for the Cubs.  Hoyer agreed, winning the bidding with an aggressive five-year, $85MM contract plus a $14.625MM posting fee.  According to MLBTR’s Steve Adams, “The most bullish opinions we’ve gotten peg Suzuki as an everyday Major League right fielder — a solid defensive player with a strong arm and enough power to hit in the middle of a big league lineup.”  This is the type of player the Cubs were sorely lacking, and if Suzuki’s power translates, fans will start to replace those Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant jerseys with Suzuki ones.

Beyond the big splashes in Stroman and Suzuki, the Cubs lived up to their word about being active in free agency.  I can’t remember another time a team brought in a dozen free agents on Major League contracts, and the number grows to 14 once you add Miley and Jesse Chavez, whose contract has already been selected.  It’s a crazy number of players to add to the Major League roster in one offseason, and it speaks to the lack of MLB-ready talent the Cubs had after trading away every decent veteran last summer.

The Cubs’ approach to building a bullpen is as good as any, given the volatility of relievers and how often the larger free agent contracts go bust.  With basically no established bullpen to speak of, especially after Codi Heuer went down for Tommy John surgery, Hoyer added five free agents on one-year deals for a total of $14MM: Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, Daniel Norris, and Jesse Chavez.  It’s difficult to say which of these five new relievers will succeed in Chicago, but the Cubs were likely emboldened by getting excellent work out of Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin after signing them for a total of $3.55MM last winter.  The pair signed two-year deals for $14MM and $13MM with the Angels and Tigers, respectively, this offseason.

We thought Jonathan Villar might require a two-year deal, so the Cubs did well to grab him for one year and $6MM.  He’ll likely see time mainly at third and second base, but could also serve as the Cubs’ third-string shortstop.  Villar is a switch-hitter without much of a platoon split, and he’ll spell Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, and Hoerner.

Drew Smyly has had interesting free agent experiences in his career.  The 32-year-old southpaw has just one 2-WAR season on his resume, back in 2014.  He signed a two-year, $10MM deal with the Cubs with an eye on his 2019 season, as he spent 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery.  The Cubs instead shipped him to Texas to save money before realizing that plan.  Smyly struggled in ’19 but still found $4MM the following offseason as one of the Giants’ pitching projects.  That went well enough that the Braves gave Smyly $11MM on the strength of 26 1/3 innings in 2020.

After middling results for Atlanta, Smyly received another $5.25MM from the Cubs and will open the season in a rotation that’s missing both Miley and Adbert Alzolay due to injuries.  The Cubs also added some rotation depth with Steven Brault, who continues to battle injuries.  The Cubs’ season-opening rotation is shaky behind Hendricks and Stroman, with Smyly, Justin Steele, and Alec Mills penciled in.  As aggressive as Hoyer was in free agency, the Cubs are still running a competitive balance tax payroll more than $60MM below the $230MM threshold, and it seems like they could have piled up more rotation depth.

The 2022 Cubs figure to be, if nothing else, a watchable club with the additions of Suzuki and Stroman and the likely summer promotion of top prospect Brennen Davis.  FanGraphs projects them for about 75 wins.  Given a 12-team playoff field, the Cubs should at least be able to hang around the periphery in a division where the Pirates are rebuilding and only the Brewers stand out.

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2021-22 Offseason In Review Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals

Out Of Options 2022

By | at April 4, 2022 2:48pm CDT

Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and, thusly, cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day, given that a lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance (or, as with yesterday’s Blue Jays/White Sox trade, can be a contributing factor in a trade).

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

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MLBTR Originals Newsstand Out Of Options 2022

31 Players On Track For Arbitration Hearings

By | at March 24, 2022 3:05pm CDT

201 arbitration eligible players have reached agreements with their teams on a 2022 salary, most of which occurred just prior to Tuesday’s filing deadline.

According to Jake Seiner of The Associated Press, 31 arbitration eligible players remain unsigned and are on track for hearings.  Due to the lockout, the hearings are expected to take place during the season if agreements are not reached.  The full list of unsigned players, which includes Aaron Judge, Willson Contreras, and Dansby Swanson, can be found in our tracker.  Judge, having submitted a $21MM figure against the Yankees’ $17MM submission, represents the largest gap at $4MM.

All the other gaps are less than $2MM, and the smallest is the $200K separating Lucas Giolito and the White Sox.  Yesterday, Giolito told reporters that the sides were only $50K apart prior to filing, which the righty described as “very unfortunate, disheartening.”

The Braves have five of the 31 cases, with Swanson, Adam Duvall, Luke Jackson, Max Fried, and Austin Riley.  Six of the 31 players were traded this offseason: Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Chris Bassitt, and Jacob Stallings.

A look at the number of hearings by year in the last decade:

  • 2021: 8
  • 2020: 12
  • 2019: 10
  • 2018: 22
    2017: 15
  • 2016: 4
  • 2015: 14
  • 2014: 3
  • 2013: 0
  • 2012: 7

Multiyear deals are always an option, and we record those in our extension tracker.

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MLB Owners Ratify CBA; Transactions Officially Unfrozen

By | at March 10, 2022 5:28pm CDT

5:28pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that the owners unanimously voted to ratify the new CBA. After 99 days, the lockout and accompanying transactions freeze have officially been lifted.

3:47pm: MLB owners are expected to ratify the new collective bargaining agreement at 6:00pm eastern/5:00pm central time tonight, according to Andy Martino of SNY.  Transactions are set to unfreeze immediately thereafter, meaning teams will again be able to sign free agents and make trades.  Upon locking out the players on December 2, MLB also instituted a transaction freeze, which ended up lasting 99 excruciating days.

We’re expecting an unprecedented level of MLB hot stove action crammed into a 28-day period, with Opening Day set for April 7.  Hundreds of free agents are still without jobs, including 20 of MLBTR’s top 50 of the offseason.  Click here to review the best remaining free agents, led by Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, and Seiya Suzuki.  Check out the full free agent list here.  To review which free agents signed prior to the lockout, click here.  My ballpark estimate is that around 60 free agents will sign MLB deals between now and Opening Day.  Old qualifying offer rules remain in place for this group of free agents, meaning that if new teams sign Correa, Freeman, Story, Castellanos, and Conforto, they’ll be subject to draft pick forfeiture.

Several factors will affect exactly how aggressive teams are in pursuing free agents.  One is how many executives bent the rules and communicated with agents during the lockout, potentially laying groundwork for instant agreements.

Another is the new competitive balance tax thresholds.  The base tax threshold will rise from $210MM in 2021 to $230MM this year, a 9.5% increase.  By 2026, the base tax threshold will reach $244MM.  There are three additional tax tiers beyond the base threshold at $20MM increments, the last of which is a new addition with this CBA.  In 2021, only the Dodgers and Padres exceeded the base tax threshold, but five other teams came within $3.4MM of it.  The teams that prefer to treat the base tax threshold as a soft salary cap now have an additional $20MM to play with in 2022.

It’s also worth considering the new anti-tanking measures agreed to by MLB and the players.  They’ll be instituting a draft lottery for the first six picks, and also penalties for landing near the bottom of the standings multiple years in a row (we’ll explore that fully later).  In theory, rebuilding clubs could become a little more active in the market.

An additional major CBA change that may affect free agency is the move from 10 to 12-team playoffs.  The bar for entry into the playoffs has been lowered.  That could push a fringe contender to acquire players.  On the flip side, a team projecting itself for 90+ wins may feel certain additions are now unnecessary with fewer wins required to make the playoffs.

The universal DH is also part of the mix, with bat-first free agents like Nick Castellanos, Nelson Cruz, and Jorge Soler now becoming more palatable for National League teams.

Trading was minimal prior to the lockout, so expect a burst of activity in that area as well.  MLBTR covered the 14 likeliest trade candidates, impact players with a chance to move, and 27 more regulars with a plausible chance of being traded.  The Athletics, Reds, and Mets figure to be in the thick of many trade discussions.  Again, it’s possible executives were conducting covert trade talks during the lockout, but we don’t know for sure.  What we do know: we’re excited to switch from lockout coverage to free agency and trades.  Thanks for hanging in there with us.

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Canceled Regular Season Games Raise The Possibility For A Dispute Regarding Service Time

By | at March 3, 2022 6:02pm CDT

Major League service time is awarded not based on games spent on a big league roster but rather by total days spent on the Major League roster (or injured list). The Major League Baseball season is 186 days long and a “full year” of service time is defined as 172 days.

A full year of service can be accrued over multiple seasons, of course. A player called up with 72 days left in the regular season, for instance, would accrue 72 days of service time in the current season and need 100 the following year to get across that one-year threshold. Assuming said player spent that entire second season on the roster, he’d have a year and 72 days of service time. For written purposes, service time is displayed as: [years].[days]. So, the player in this example would have 1.072 years of service following that second season. Two more full years of service, and he’s at 3.072 and into arbitration by virtue of crossing three years. Three more years on top of that, and he’s at 6.072 and eligible for free agency by virtue of accruing more than six years of service time.

With that quick and admittedly rudimentary crash course for the uninitiated out of the way, I thought it would be pertinent to take a look at how the recent cancellation of Opening Day by commissioner Rob Manfred could potentially impact players from a service-time vantage point — specifically those who could, at least in theory, stand to see their free agency delayed by a season.

At present, the league has only canceled the season’s first two series. Theoretically, if MLB and the MLBPA were to agree to a new deal this weekend and Opening Day were pushed back only a week — a pipe dream, I realize, but humor me for the purposes of this example — the season could technically still contain 179 days. Players could, then, receive a full year of service even in the absence of a week’s worth of games being wiped from existence.

What if, however, we reach the point where anything more than two weeks of games are canceled? The moment 15 or more days are nixed, there are 171 days on the schedule — which is technically not enough for any player to accrue a full year of service in 2022 alone. For players like the hypothetical one I described in the first couple sentences, that might not be a huge deal. My 1.072 player would only need 100 days of service this season, and so long as he got those 100 days, he’d cross into the two-plus service bracket and his timeline to free agency would remain unchanged. However, a player entering the season with exactly three years of service time (or two years, one year, etc.) would suddenly be looking at a calendar that literally doesn’t have enough days on it to keep their free-agent trajectories on track. Since arbitration is also based off service time, there’d be major implications on that front as well.

It’s for this reason that the union is widely expected to fight tooth-and-nail for full service time to be awarded even in spite of missed games/missed calendar days. The MLBPA will argue that it was the league who implemented the lockout and the league who canceled games early in the season. An attempt to withhold service time would quite likely be perceived by the players as something so damaging that they’d be willing to sit out indefinitely. That service time is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the players.

The union is also expected to push for full pay rather than prorated salaries on the season, although it’s quite arguably the service time that’s more valuable, given its future implications. The two sides will butt heads over these issues, to be sure. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes tweets that he expects the eventual compromise to be one that sees the players still receive full service time but not be paid for any missed days. As Tim points out, there’s precedent for both of these in the past.

At the moment, there’s a fair bit of talk about the possibility that all of April is lost to the current lockout. Much of that stems from Ken Rosenthal’s recent report at The Athletic, wherein he revealed that most television contracts don’t call for teams to issue rebates to their broadcast partners until “around 25 games” are missed. This has led to several players, Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward among them, accusing the league of deliberately seeking a reason to wipe April games from the schedule. April attendance is generally poor relative to the rest of the season, and the allegations put forth by the players accuse ownership of effectively only taking on the operating costs of five-sixths of a season while still receiving a full season’s worth of television revenue.

Feel free to discuss that theory all you like in the comments, but I’m setting it aside because the specifics of why we might miss the month of April are irrelevant for the purposes of this exercise. What matters here is which players would be most harmed by the possibility of April being wiped from the schedule and MLB subsequently trying to withhold their service. It’s quite unlikely that the league would succeed in these efforts, to be clear, but the hypothetical is still worth investigating.

Opening Day had been slated for March 31 (one day of service), and there are another 30 in April, of course. Striking April from the record would drop the season to 155 calendar days. Any player with even 17 extra days of service toward another year (i.e. 1.o17, 2.017, etc.) would be able to move their service time up a year. Any player with 16 or fewer toward another year (i.e. 1.016, 2.016, etc.) would be out of luck. MLBTR has obtained a full record of official service time for every current Major Leaguer, which is the source for the service-time data used in this exercise.

First, a few caveats. As this pertains mostly to players who have not yet accumulated six total years of service (i.e. reached free agency) or signed a long-term contract that renders such service time considerations largely moot (e.g. Fernando Tatis Jr.), I’ve excluded those players. I’ve also, admittedly subjectively, chosen players who have a decent chance to last the whole season on a big league roster.

All that said, let’s take a look at each service bracket and who’d technically come up short. As you might expect, there are some rather notable names:

Five-plus years of service time: Trey Mancini, Manuel Margot, Grant Dayton
Four-plus: Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty, Ryan McMahon, Reynaldo Lopez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jordan Hicks, Brad Keller, Shohei Ohtani
Three-plus: Lucas Luetge, Austin Adams, Lucas Sims, Tyler Kinley, Brett Phillips, Adrian Houser, John Means, Kyle Higashioka, Josh James, Rowdy Tellez, Dylan Moore, Chris Paddack, Nick Anderson, Pete Alonso
Two-plus: Jorge Alcala, Lane Thomas, Nico Hoerner, Adrian Morejon, Jared Walsh, Aristides Aquino, Kyle Finnegan, Jorge Mateo, JT Brubaker, Jake Cronenworth, Anthony Misiewicz, Brady Singer, Codi Heuer, Cristian Javier, David Peterson, Tejay Antone
One-plus: James Kaprielian, Chas McCormick, Akil Baddoo, Andrew Vaughn, Garrett Whitlock, Jake Brentz, Jonathan India

Put another way, if the league were to somehow succeed in not only canceling the first month of the season but also withholding service time, you’d see the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, Trey Mancini, Manuel Margot, Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas, Ryan McMahon, etc. all watch their gateways to free agency be delayed by a full year. The huge loss of earning power that comes with getting a year older — to say nothing of the potential for injury and/or decline — is where the aforementioned “hundreds of millions of dollars” in value to the Players Association that I referenced stems. And, if we see a portion of May, June, etc. canceled, further names will be added to this list.

Again, this is an exercise in hypotheticals, and I can’t imagine a scenario where the players willingly shrug and accept the loss of service time for days that were lost to a league-implemented lockout. But the two sides are absolutely going to negotiate over this, perhaps in heated fashion. If you find yourself asking “what’s the big deal” regarding the potential for missed service time — the “big deal” is another year that the likes of Ohtani, Alonso, Flaherty, etc. are under club control via arbitration rather than having a chance to hit the free-agent market.

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An Overlooked Lefty Slugger In Free Agency

By | at February 23, 2022 12:37pm CDT

Much of fans’ time during the lockout is spent playing armchair general manager and looking at ways to address their teams’ perceived needs — whether it be blockbuster trades, free-agent mega-deals, or under-the-radar value plays. There’s probably more focus on those first two, but we’ve already taken pretty lengthy looks at the top free agents and the top trade candidates who could change hands throughout the offseason here at MLBTR. As such, my own focus has turned to some of the lesser-heralded free agents who probably deserve a bit more love than they’ve gotten to this point in the winter. In the case of Brad Miller, his lack of appreciation probably pre-dates the current offseason.

Brad Miller | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past three years, Miller has played on a one-year, $1MM deal in Cleveland, a one-year, $2.5MM deal in St. Louis and a one-year, $3.5MM deal in Philadelphia. Those three teams have guaranteed a combined $7MM to Miller and received 40 home runs through 718 plate appearances, with an overall batting line of .236/.331/.480. Obviously, the batting average isn’t ideal, but the leaguewide average during that time is .248 (or .251 excluding pitchers). Miller hasn’t been that much below par in terms of his batting average, and he’s above average in terms of on-base percentage and, particularly, in his power output.

This isn’t to say Miller should be lumped into the mix of most appealing free-agent bats available. He’ll play the coming season at age 32, making him older than the market’s high-profile names, and his skill set has obvious flaws. We’ll get those out of the way first.

Miller’s lefty bat has been a nonfactor against southpaw pitchers, evidenced by a .168/.230/.336 output over the past three seasons. He’s punched out in nearly 38% of his plate appearances when facing same-handed opponents. It’s not a new phenomenon, as Miller’s career numbers indicate, but his struggles against lefties have increased in recent years, even as his output against righties has improved.

Defensively, Miller is something of a man without a position. His days as a shortstop early in his big league career never yielded strong ratings from metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. More rudimentary marks like fielding percentage and his error totals agreed that Miller probably wasn’t well-suited as an everyday shortstop. That’s all the more true as he trends toward his mid-30s. Miller has seen plenty of action at first base, second base, third base and in the outfield corners over the past few seasons; his best statistical showings in those relatively small samples have come at second base and in left field. He’s not a premium defender anywhere, but Miller can capably handle those two spots and fill in as needed around the diamond.

Setting aside those noted deficiencies, there’s one thing thing Miller also does quite well: mash right-handed pitching. Over the past three years, Miller has hit .251/.352/.512 against right-handed pitchers — good for a 127 wRC+ that ranks 47th among the 321 hitters who’ve tallied at least 400 plate appearances (that is to say, he’s been about 27% better than the league-average hitter). At least against right-handed pitching, that wRC+ puts him alongside heavy-hitting names like Jose Ramirez (126), Carlos Correa (126) and Marcus Semien (129). Miller obviously isn’t as good overall as anyone in that trio, and it’s not realistic to shield him from left-handed opponents entirely over the course of a season. Nevertheless, the damage he offers against right-handed pitching is real.

The productivity when holding the platoon advantage doesn’t appear fluky in nature, either. Miller has walked in 12.9% of his plate appearances against a more defensible 26.3% strikeout rate. His .293 average on balls in play doesn’t scream for regression. A quarter of his fly-balls against righties have left the yard, which is a strong mark — 19th among that previous subset of 321 hitters, right alongside George Springer and Nelson Cruz — but not so lofty that one should expect it to come crashing back down in a major way.

Moreover, the general quality of Miller’s contact is excellent. His 2021 percentile ranks in average exit velocity (91st), max exit velocity (91st), hard-hit rate (84th) and barrel rate (80th) all stand out. He’s also above average in terms of sprint speed (62nd percentile) and in his ability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone (71st percentile both in 2021 and in 2020). Miller’s contact rate on pitches in the zone is a good bit shy of the league average (about five percentage points), but he’s not going to get himself out too often by flailing at pitches off the plate.

Miller’s flaws are easy to see, and again, the point of this certainly isn’t to suggest he will or should be paid along the same lines as Kyle Schwarber, who just put up a fireworks display for the ages when healthy in 2021. But Miller’s .251/.352/.512 slash against righties over the past three seasons is a whole lot closer to Schwarber’s .247/.348/.555 slash against righties in that same time than their eventual price tags will suggest, and Miller has actually been a much better hitter against righties than free agents like Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario in recent seasons. Fans looking for left-handed bats might not have Miller high on their wishlist, but when used properly, his production is closer to some of the bigger names than most would expect. Whether the market will treat him as such this time around is yet to be determined, but the forthcoming addition of a universal designated hitter won’t hurt his stock.

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MLBTR Originals

Johnny Cueto Can Still Help A Rotation

By | at February 21, 2022 3:20pm CDT

If you were to sit down and make a list of the best pitchers in baseball from 2010-16, you’d be hard-pressed not to include Johnny Cueto in some capacity. The two-time All-Star finished among the top six in National League Cy Young voting three times in that stretch, including a runner-up finish to Clayton Kershaw in 2014. He received at least one down-ballot MVP vote in all three of those seasons as well. From 2010-16, Cueto turned in a 2.86 ERA, a 20.6% strikeout rate (at a time when that number was much more impressive than it is in 2022) and a terrific 6.2% walk rate. Cueto was viewed as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, and rightly so. He ranked fourth out of 228 qualified starting pitchers in ERA during that time, and his 1294 2/3 innings were the 16th-most in baseball.

Given that context, it’s no surprise that Cueto hit the open market as one of the most in-demand free agents in the game following the 2015 season. He’d struggled a bit following his trade from Cincinnati to Kansas City, but Cueto’s final impression on the Royals was a two-hit, one-run complete game in Game 2 of the World Series, which the Royals won 7-1. Not a bad way to set out into free agency for the first time.

Cueto’s six-year, $132MM contract with the Giants made him the third-highest-paid pitcher of the 2015-16 offseason, trailing only David Price and Zack Greinke‘s pair of $200MM+ deals (and beating MLBTR’s expectations by a year in the process). For the first year of his contract, the signing looked quite strong. Cueto hurled 219 2/3 innings of 2.79 ERA ball, made the All-Star team, and enjoyed both Cy Young and MVP votes in his first year with San Francisco. The Giants’ “even-year” dynasty was cut short at three years (2010, 2012, 2014) — but not for any fault of Cueto’s. He made one appearance in the playoffs that winter and took a brutal complete-game loss that saw him allow just one run on three hits and no walks with 10 strikeouts against the eventual-champion Cubs.

Cueto missed a handful of starts in 2017 due to an ongoing blister issue and wasn’t at his best when healthy. His 4.52 ERA that year was his worst since his rookie campaign back in 2008, and it was a particularly poorly-timed slump, as Cueto could’ve opted out of the final four years of his contract and tested the market a second time, had he turned in another healthy season of Cy-caliber results. Ankle and elbow injuries wound up hobbling Cueto in 2018, and by August of that season, he was headed for Tommy John surgery. Cueto returned late in the 2019 season and tossed 16 pedestrian innings, and his work in the shortened 2020 campaign was the worst of his career (5.40 ERA, career-high walk rate).

Expectations for Cueto were light heading into the 2021 season, then, which made his rebound effort with the Giants something of a pleasant surprise. Cueto missed nearly a month with a lat strain and was on the IL for much of September with an elbow strain. The latter of those two injuries is particularly concerning, since we didn’t see much from Cueto after he hit the IL. He made a lone rehab appearance in the minors (1 2/3 innings) and pitched 2 1/3 innings of relief in the Majors on Sept. 30.

It’s not a great note on which to end a season, but Cueto’s 92 mph velocity in that final outing was right in line with what he’d done throughout the season. And, when he was healthy, Cueto was the best version of himself fans and opponents had seen in years. No, this wasn’t Cy Young runner-up Cueto, but it was a very serviceable version of the quirky right-hander, who slotted nicely into the fourth spot in a deep San Francisco rotation.

At 35 years old, Cueto wasn’t the fireballer he was earlier in his career, but his 91.9 mph average fastball velocity was the highest mark he’d posted since that outstanding 2016 campaign. His 6.1% walk rate was also his best mark since that ’16 effort, and Cueto’s 9.7% swinging-strike rate and 31.4% opponents’ chase rate were his best marks since 2017. Cueto’s average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate were all better than the league average, and his walk rate was in the 81st percentile of MLB pitchers.

Cueto was much more effective through his first dozen starts of the season (3.63 ERA) than over his final nine appearances (4.72), but perhaps some late fatigue was to be expected. His first “full” season back from Tommy John surgery, after all, was the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. The 2021 season was the first time since 2017 that Cueto had started the season healthy in April and was still trying to pitch into August and September.

The end result of Cueto’s 2021 campaign was a respectable 4.08 ERA and peripherals that largely backed him up (4.05 FIP, 4.27 xFIP, 4.43 SIERA). It’s not necessarily a dominant profile, and projection systems are down on him by virtue of factoring in his ugly 2019-20 results in the wake of Tommy John surgery. ZiPS has him at 92 innings of 4.43 ERA ball. Steamer is more bullish in workload (144 innings) but much more bearish in results (5.05 ERA). You’re forgiven if you are not overly optimistic for Cueto’s outlook in 2022 and beyond. The past few years, taken as a whole, have not been great.

A team that’s more focused on Cueto’s 2021 characteristics — the increase in velocity over 2018-20, the upticks in swinging strikes and chases — might see things differently, however. Cueto shouldn’t be penciled in for a return to his halcyon days of 200-plus innings and 33 starts, but he did make all 12 of his starts in 2020 and was more healthy in 2021 than he’s been since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s not the complete-game threat and workhorse he once was, but Cueto averaged 5 1/3 innings per start in ’21 and had been averaging about 5 2/3 per outing up until the All-Star break. It’s not out of the question that he could bounce back a bit further and make 24 to 25 starts with average or better results. At his per-start output, that clocks in somewhere in the range of 130 to 140 innings.

Maybe 135 innings of low-4.00s ERA doesn’t jump up and excite fans, but for the right team, that’s plenty valuable. The prevailing, but often incorrect, mentality is that every team possesses some guys in Triple-A who could come up and fill that role. However, there were only 89 pitchers in MLB last season who pitched at least 80 innings and posted an ERA under 4.25 — about three per team, on average. Bulk sources of respectable innings don’t necessarily grow on trees.

Clubs that already have solid options in the top four spots of their rotation could look to Cueto as a fairly affordable means of rounding things out. The Mets, Mariners, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs and the incumbent Giants all fit that billing to varying extents. A team in need of filling out multiple rotation spots (e.g. Twins, Nationals, Rangers) might look for a bit more reliability, but perhaps even they’d see some merit in installing Cueto as a steadying presence while awaiting the arrival of some younger arms.

Regardless of Cueto’s eventual destination, it’s a bit surprising that he’s become something of a forgotten man this time around in free agency. There’s been nary a word about his market since the Giants opted for a $5MM buyout over a $22MM club option for the 2022 season. At a net $17MM, that option was never getting picked up, but Cueto had a decent rebound campaign in ’21 and probably ought to be getting a little more consideration as fans, pundits and teams alike consider the post-lockout market. He might not command more than a one-year deal, and that comes with serious bargain potential — relative to other names who’ve signed thus far, anyway.

Corey Kluber got $8MM from the Rays, and Cueto pitched as much in 2021 as Kluber has over the past three years combined. Jordan Lyles received a $7MM guarantee from the Orioles despite leading the Majors with 38 homers allowed last year and leading the Majors in earned runs allowed since 2020. Andrew Heaney got $8.5MM from the Dodgers. The Red Sox gave $7MM to Michael Wacha. This isn’t to disparage any of those deals individually. The teams paying those salaries are paying for varying levels of perceived upside, relative youth and/or bulk innings. However, it’s hard to see those figures and think Cueto won’t command something similar, if not better. And if he does clock in south of that range due to concerns over the late elbow issue, he has some significant bargain potential.

It seems silly to call a multi-time All-Star and former Cy Young candidate who just finished up a nine-figure deal “overlooked,” but Cueto hasn’t gotten much attention even in terms of pure free-agent speculation, despite the fact that he just turned in a pretty decent season overall.

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The Value Of The MLBPA’s Super Two Proposal

By | at February 21, 2022 10:57am CDT

In its most recent proposal, the Major League Baseball Players Association asked that 80% of players with at least two years of MLB service be considered arbitration eligible.  This is up from 22%, which has been the cutoff since 2013 when it was increased from 17%.  In the ongoing CBA negotiations, MLB has shown no interest in any change to the 22% figure.  The MLBPA started these CBA talks at a position of making all 2+ players eligible for arbitration, which had been the case from the inception of salary arbitration in 1973 up until 1985.

I thought it might be interesting to attempt to quantify the MLBPA’s request.  First, we should get an idea of how many additional players would be thrown into the arbitration system each year.  As I mentioned on Twitter last week, the 80% request, if in effect this offseason, would mean changing the current Super Two cutoff from 2.116 (two years and 116 days of MLB service) to 2.028.  Keep in mind that the Super Two cutoff is always a moving target.

By my count, under the 2.116 cutoff, 26 players currently qualify as Super Two this offseason, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Austin Riley, and Bryan Reynolds.

Under a cutoff reduced to 2.028, 79 additional players would qualify as arbitration eligible.  I’ve listed them below along with projected arbitration salaries from Matt Swartz.  Note that our arbitration projection model sometimes spits out a number below the league minimum, in which case we set the projection equal to the minimum.  For this exercise, we’ll use a minimum salary of $700K.

To calculate how much additional money MLB teams would be paying under this system in 2022, I found the difference between the projected arbitration salary, and a hypothetical $700K minimum.  So, for example, Yordan Alvarez and Bo Bichette would gain the most, an additional $3.9MM each in ’22.  Note that it’s possible a few star players might make more than the league minimum even as a pre-arbitration player, like when Mookie Betts was renewed for $950K in 2017, but we aren’t modeling that in.

So, for these 79 additional Super Two players under the MLBPA’s proposal, we estimate that teams would pay an additional $72.4MM in 2022.

By itself, MLB might be willing to stomach something of that nature.  They’ve shown a willingness to put $15MM into a pre-arbitration bonus pool, and I assume they could be pushed up higher if the players drop their request to change Super Two eligibility.

But there’s the rub: MLB doesn’t want any additional players thrown into the arbitration system.  Doing so, particularly for star players, would increase that player’s total arbitration earnings by a significant amount, and also help push up the pay scale.

To illustrate this, we asked Matt Swartz to model out a couple of players who have been through the arbitration system already.

The first is Francisco Lindor.  Lindor went through arbitration three times, earning salaries of $10.55MM in 2019, $17.5MM in 2020, and $22.3MM in 2021, for a total of $50.35MM.  Under the MLBPA’s proposal, Lindor would have been arbitration eligible four times.  This means he would have earned a lot more than the $623,200 he did in 2018 – 10.7 times as much, in our estimation.  Here’s how our model saw a Lindor who went to arbitration four times, keeping his actual statistics the same:

  • 2018: $623,200 -> $6.7MM
  • 2019: $10.55MM -> $14.9MM
  • 2020: $17.5MM -> $20.7MM
  • 2021: $22.3MM -> $23.4MM
  • Total: $50,973,200 -> $65.7MM
  • Difference: $14,726,800

Our other example is Josh Bell.  He’s also set to go through arbitration three times, earning $4.8MM in 2020, $6.35MM in 2021, and a projected $10MM in 2022 for a total of $21.15MM.  Here’s how that might have played out had he gone through arbitration four times:

  • 2019: $587K -> $2.8MM
  • 2020: $4.8MM -> $8.1MM
  • 2021: $6.35MM -> $9.6MM
  • 2022: 10MM (projected) -> $13.2MM
  • Total: $21,737,000 -> $33.7MM
  • Difference: $11,963,000

The Pirates traded Bell in December 2020, knowing he was set to get a bump from $4.8MM to $6.35MM.  MLB might argue that the Pirates would have traded Bell a year earlier if he was slated to jump from $2.8MM to $8.1MM.  They might say that not only would expanding Super Two be bad for their pocketbooks, it’d be bad for “competitive balance.”  I imagine the MLBPA would argue that the Pirates could have afforded Bell in either scenario.

There’s also the chance that shifting the arbitration pay scale a year earlier for a good number of players would simply result in them getting non-tendered a year earlier and hitting the free agent market.  If you look at the list of 79 players above, you can be assured that many of them will not make it all the way through arbitration even if they earn the league minimum in 2022.

Looking at a player like Bell, if he was coming off a poor 2020 season and was set to earn $9.6MM instead of $6.35MM, he might have simply been non-tendered.  As we’ve seen with an example like Kyle Schwarber, this is not necessarily a bad scenario for the player, since Schwarber earned more in free agency than he was projected to get in arbitration, and he’s set to parlay a strong bounceback year into a good multiyear contract.

If you wanted to model out the MLBPA’s 80% request further, you’d have to retroactively apply it to all the players who would’ve been affected and see how much money moves toward the players in that scenario.  But it’d be impossible to guess who would’ve been non-tendered when, so it’s not an exact science.  At any rate, we may learn this week whether MLB truly has any willingness to move off the 22% Super Two cutoff, even if it’s not to 80%.

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Who’s Blocking Alek Thomas?

By | at February 20, 2022 11:01pm CDT

In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Diamondbacks selected Alek Thomas, an outfielder from Mount Carmel High School in Chicago. Just 18 years old at the time, Thomas played 56 rookie ball games that year, 28 each on two different teams, hitting .333/.395/.463, wRC+ of 133, with a walk rate of 8.9% and strikeout rate of just 13.7%.

In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 91 games and hitting .312/.393/.479. His walk and strikeout rates were 10.7% and 17.9%, culminating in a 153 wRC+. He got promoted to High-A that year and struggled a bit, which isn’t terribly surprising given that he was more than three years younger than the average age for that level. But it was also a small sample of just 23 games.

The pandemic wiped out the 2020 season but didn’t slow Thomas down at all. In 2021, he started his season in Double-A and played 72 games there, hitting ten home runs and stealing eight bases. Along with a walk rate of 11.2% and strikeout rate of 19.8%, he hit .283/.374/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. He got promoted to Triple-A and took his game up another notch. Despite his walk and strikeout rates slipping to 9% and 20.5%, he hit eight home runs in just 34 games, adding five steals, finishing with a line of .369/.434/.658, wRC+ of 168. Thomas is now considered one of the top prospects in the game, with Baseball America ranking him #32, MLB Pipeline #40 and FanGraphs #23.

Thomas, 22 years old in April, has little left to prove in the minors, having now shown himself capable of playing well at the top parts of the D-Backs’ system. One thing standing in his way is the fact that he’s not on the team’s 40-man roster yet, since he’s still a year away from Rule 5 eligibility. Furthermore, as with all top prospects nearing MLB readiness at this time of year, there’s the possibility that they won’t get promoted until they are held back long enough for the club to gain an extra year of control over them. Though there’s also the possibility that the service time rules change, as they are currently being negotiated as part of the next CBA.

Thomas has played all three outfield positions throughout his minor league career, but more in center than the corners. FanGraphs, however, sees him as more of a left fielder in the long term. Even with that move to a less-demanding defensive position, they still view him as a future above-average regular.

At the big league level, the outfield picture for the Diamondbacks is quite murky at the moment. David Peralta is likely to continue as the team’s primarily left fielder, though this is the final year of his extension and he turns 35 in August. He also had a mediocre season at the plate last season, putting up a wRC+ of just 93, his lowest in years. Taking all that into consideration, he might not be a part of the long-term picture.

The attempts to turn Ketel Marte into a center fielder didn’t really work out and he seems poised to return to full-time second base work going forward. Daulton Varsho is a baseball oddity, capable of switching between outfield and catching duties. He was behind the plate for 41 games last year but also saw time on the grass in 54 contests. He hasn’t fully established himself as an MLB hitter just yet, but is just 25 years old and has an excellent minor league track record. Pavin Smith is in a similar position to Varsho, hitting just below league average in his MLB time thus far. But he just turned 26 and has carried himself well in the minors. Josh VanMeter is in the picture but mostly as a bench/utility option. Jordan Luplow came over from the Rays in a trade just before the lockout. He’s likely to be primarily used in a platoon capacity, given his excellent career numbers against lefties and the fact that Peralta, Varsho and Smith all hit from the left side. Thomas is also a lefty, but actually hit southpaws better than righties last year. (1.073 OPS versus lefties and .909 against righties.) Cooper Hummel was added to the 40-man roster in November but has yet to make his MLB debut. Jake McCarthy and Stuart Fairchild are also on the roster, but each has less than 25 games of MLB experience. There’s also another highly-touted outfield prospect in Corbin Carroll, though he’s only reached High-A so far.

In short, there are a lot of options written in pencil, but none in ink. The Diamondbacks had a nightmare season in 2021, going 52-110, tied with the Orioles for the worst record in the majors. They share a division with strong teams like the Dodgers and Giants. The Padres have a decent chance of being much better this year than last. The Rockies plan on spending some money and competing this year. Arizona will need a lot of things to go right if they’re going to bridge the gap with their competitors, including Thomas, and a few of these other names, cementing themselves as mainstays in the outfield.

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An Under-The-Radar Free Agent Option For Teams Seeking Rotation Help

By | at February 17, 2022 6:33pm CDT

The 2021-22 free agent market was highlighted by a historically talented group of shortstops, an unusually deep collection of starting pitchers and a good deal of power bats at the outfield and infield corners. This winter’s collection of free agents is the strongest in recent memory and quite likely the strongest we’ll see for a good while. Look ahead to the 2022-23 class, and while there are certainly a few star names, it pales in comparison to this year’s group.

With any deep free agent class, there are bound to be some names who slip through the cracks or simply don’t draw much in the way of appreciation or attention. We try to minimize this each offseason when ranking our Top 50 free agents and putting forth contract predictions, highlighting a handful of “honorable mentions” who seem likely to secure decent free-agent deals even though we’ve left them sitting outside the top 50. Even still, there’s usually a name or two we wind up wishing we’d considered more closely.

Of the non-top-50, non-honorable-mention free agents in this year’s class, former Cardinals lefty Kwang Hyun Kim fits that bill for me. A combination of age, lack of velocity and lack of bulk innings made us feel comfortable leaving him off the Top 50, but taking a retrospective look at his numbers, I’m not so sure that should’ve been the case. I’ve been asked a few times in recent chats here on MLBTR whether Kim was contemplating a return to the Korea Baseball Organization in light of the MLB lockout. My understanding is that he fully intends to continue on in the Majors and sign with a big league club whenever the transaction freeze lifts.

A very surface-level glance at Kim reveals a solid set of numbers. He’s pitched in 145 2/3 Major League innings, notched a 2.97 earned run average and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.1% clip. Kim doesn’t boast elite command, but his 8.4% walk rate is a bit better than the league-average 8.7%. He’s well below average in terms of strikeout rate (17.2% versus the league-average 23.2%), but the bottom-line results are there.

Had he remained healthier and worked a full season of innings, Kim would likely have a bit more buzz. That didn’t happen, however. He missed a portion of Spring Training and the first three weeks of the season due to a back injury — an issue that sent him to the injured list for another 10-day spell in mid-June. Kim later spent another two and a half weeks on the injured list owing to some elbow inflammation. It proved minor, but the Cardinals picked up a pair of veterans at the deadline (J.A. Happ and Jon Lester) and welcomed back several other injured starters while Kim was on the mend. He did not make a minor league rehab start despite pitching just once over a month-long period, and the Cards moved him to the bullpen when activating him in late August.

The other red flags on Kim were an 89.4 mph fastball and a sub-par strikeout rate led to questionable fielding-independent pitching marks; metrics like FIP (4.34), xERA (4.48), xFIP (4.70) and SIERA (4.85) all pegged Kim as more of a mid-4.00s type of pitcher. The sub-3.00 ERA he’s posted was clearly aided by an elite Cardinals defense, but he also created some of his own luck by limiting hard contact, keeping the ball on the ground and inducing pop-ups at an above-average rate.

Kim rates comfortably above average in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage. He also has a penchant for surprising hitters, as his 18% called-strike rate tied him with names like Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton and Steven Matz for the 30th-best mark among the 145 starting pitchers who’ve pitched at least 100 innings since 2020. It’s not an elite figure, but possessing the command and deception needed to freeze opponents does help Kim to offset a below-average swinging-strike rate, to an extent.

In terms of platoon splits, Kim — like most lefties — is more susceptible to right-handed opponents than lefties. That said, it hasn’t been a glaring deficiency. Lefties have posted a putrid .164/.263/.224 slash against him in 133 plate appearances, while righties are at a relatively tepid .248/.310/.397 output. Kim has only fanned a tiny 14.6% of right-handed opponents against a hefty 26.3% of the lefties he’s faced, but his walk rate, ground-ball rate and pop-up rate are all actually much better against right-handed opponents.

Some clubs may be intrigued by Kim as a reliever, given that he’s dominated opponents the first trip through a batting order, yielding a lowly .192/.260/.314 batting line the first time facing a hitter on a given day. That spikes to .290/.354/.425 the second time through a lineup, which is an obvious concern. Then again, Kim’s opponents have hit just .184/.253/.316 in 83 plate appearances when facing him for a third time, so it’s not as though he’s incapable of turning a lineup over with any success. Realistically, that third-time-through-the-order split would likely regress in a larger sample, but it’s also fair to wonder whether that second-time split might improve with more opportunities.

So, to this point, Kim has been primarily a five-inning starter — he’s completed six frames in just eight of his 28 starts — with below-average strikeout capabilities but solid command and a knack for inducing weak contact. He’s struggled a bit the second time through the order, due in no small part to a notable drop in strikeout rate in such settings, but there’s at least some reason to believe he could improve upon that when looking at his third-time splits.

It’s not necessarily an exciting package that teams should be falling over to sign, but the other reason I’ve come to expect we’ll have been light on Kim’s market is simply by looking at how the market has valued other arms this winter. Jordan Lyles can be relied upon for some bulk innings, but his results (5.60 ERA), batted-ball profile and other peripherals are all more questionable than those of Kim. He still signed for a $7MM guarantee. Michael Wacha matched that guarantee despite a third straight sub-par season. Steven Matz and Nick Martinez both beat expectations with four-year contracts — the latter being a particular surprise. The Cubs had the No. 7 waiver priority this offseason and pounced to claim Wade Miley at a year and $10MM. Miley provides more innings, but he’s two years older and, over the past few seasons, looks an awful lot like Kim on a per-inning basis.

Put more simply, it’s been a bull market for starting pitching help, and while Kim’s soft-tossing, weak-contact specialist profile isn’t necessarily a sexy one in the eyes of modern front offices, he’s managed to succeed with it to this point in his career. A team looking for a fairly steady fourth or fifth starter could do much worse than plugging in Kim for five to six innings every fifth day, and if I were reconsidering the remaining free agents on the market, I’d probably peg him for a two-year deal when the lockout lifts. Perhaps that simply won’t be in the cards — the middle class of free agents could be squeezed into some lackluster contract terms — but if he’s available on a one-year deal, it’d be a steal for the signing team.

The number of clubs still needing arms will work in the favor of Kim and other remaining free agents. The Mets still need a fifth starter, and the Mariners and Tigers are also on the hunt in that market. The Twins, Nationals and Rangers all have multiple rotation spots they’ll yet need to fill. The A’s might have a pair of starting jobs to fill, depending on their trade activity. The price tag on Kim shouldn’t be prohibitive one way or another, and the demand should get him a decent deal when all is said and done.

Admittedly, this a lengthier look than I’d normally take at a fourth starter type whose best-case scenario feels like a two-year deal. FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens predicted two years and $20MM back in November, and even after digging into Kim, I think I’m slightly lower than that figure. Still, for a pitcher who’s generated very little fanfare, Kim has a strong track record of results and, based on those first-trip-through-the-order splits, could at worst be deployed as a quality multi-inning reliever. He’ll likely prioritize a team with a clear rotation opening, which dampens the possibility of a Cardinals reunion, but there’s solid value to be had here.

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