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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins’ unfathomable postseason losing streak stretched to 18 games when they fell to the Astros during a Wild Card sweep. It’s back to the drawing board for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine as they look to secure a third straight division title and finally dispel the postseason curse.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $71MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option)
  • Miguel Sano, 1B: $23MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 option)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $22.75MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option)
  • Jorge Polanco, SS: $17.833MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option; contract also contains 2025  option)
  • Michael Pineda, RHP: $10MM through 2021
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $9MM through 2023 (contract contains $3MM annual base with up to $10.15MM of annual incentives)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $5MM club option on RHP Sergio Romo (paid $250K buyout)

Free Agents

The Twins put together more-than-competitive rosters in 2019-20, shining in the regular season before continuing their inexplicable postseason drought. The good news for Minnesota fans is that the core group remains largely in place beyond the 2020 season.

Nelson Cruz is the most notable exception, as the 40-year-old slugger will head back to the open market this winter — reportedly in search of a two-year deal. It’s hard to blame Cruz for seeking that guarantee if he’s intent on playing through his 42nd birthday; he’s been an absolute monster in his two years with the Twins, slashing a combined .308/.394/.626 with 57 home runs in 173 games.

If the Twins were willing to meet that two-year term, I imagine this deal would’ve already come together. That’s not to say the two sides won’t eventually get there, but it might require some market pressure to move the team’s urgency. Absent the implementation of a permanent designated hitter in the National League, it’s not clear such pressure will exist. Most contending clubs throughout the American League have their DH at-bats largely spoken for.

Cruz seems willing to wait until there’s clarity on an NL DH (or lack thereof); the Twins could wait along with him or more proactively pursue a replacement. Marcell Ozuna could slide right into that DH spot and see occasional time in the outfield corners. The same is true of Michael Brantley, who has an obvious connection to the Twins in the form of Falvey, who was a former assistant GM with the Indians when Brantley played in Cleveland. Ditto Carlos Santana, who could start at first base and push Miguel Sano to DH, giving the Twins a defensive upgrade.

After Cruz, the biggest question is what to do with left fielder Eddie Rosario. The 29-year-old upped his walk rate to a career-high 8.2 percent in 2020 after years of criticism over his free-swinging approach, and he did so while maintaining above-average power (.219 ISO) and a low strikeout rate (14.7 percent).

One year of Rosario at somewhere in the $9-11MM vicinity is a perfectly reasonable price, but the Twins have a pair of near-MLB-ready top 100 prospects who happen to call the corner outfield their home: Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Left field/first base prospect Brent Rooker also made his MLB debut in 2020 and hit quite well before a broken forearm ended his season. The Twins thought so highly of Kirilloff that they not only carried him on the postseason roster but allowed him to make his MLB debut as the starting right fielder in an elimination game. Kirilloff has at times ranked inside baseball’s 10 best overall prospects and is still widely considered in the top 25 to 50.

Given leaguewide revenue losses and the fact that Rosario will earn about 17 times as much as Kirilloff in 2021, it’s not a surprise that Rosario has been mentioned both as a trade candidate and a non-tender candidate. He’d be among the better players we’ve seen non-tendered in recent years, but it’s fair to wonder whether another club would take on his salary and surrender anything in return in a climate that saw Indians closer Brad Hand go unclaimed on waivers when he could’ve been claimed at $10MM. I wrote about Rosario’s trade candidacy back in April and again more recently for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, noting that there are some on-paper fits who could at least be intrigued by Rosario on a short-term commitment — the Nationals and Astros chief among them.

Outside of Cruz and Rosario/Kirilloff, the lineup is largely set — although there’s still room to be creative. Byron Buxton and Max Kepler should reprise their roles as center fielder and right fielder, barring a surprise trade of Kepler and his team-friendly contract. Who will seize the bulk of the time behind the plate isn’t certain, but both Mitch Garver (2019) and the younger Ryan Jeffers (2020) have turned in impressive seasons at the plate recently. Catcher isn’t likely to be a top priority outside of a potential depth add on a minor league deal. One could argue that the club should pursue J.T. Realmuto and make Jeffers/Garver available in trade, but that’s a reach.

So where’s the best spot to great “creative,” then? The middle infield — shortstop in particular — seems to present an opportunity. The Indians aren’t going to ship Francisco Lindor to their top division rival, but the free-agent market still has some quality options available. Polanco is a fine incumbent when healthy, but he’s undergone two ankle surgeries since signing his extension and was never a great defensive shortstop in the first place.

A pursuit of Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons could allow the Twins to shift one of Polanco or Luis Arraez into the super-utility role that has been vacated by Marwin Gonzalez’s free-agent departure. The other could get regular reps as the everyday second baseman. If the plan is to keep Polanco at shortstop, the Twins could pursue Kolten Wong and install a marked defensive upgrade while still deploying Arraez in that heavily used utility role.

Middle infield isn’t a “need” for this Twins team, but that was also true of third base last year when the club nevertheless won the bidding on Josh Donaldson, recognizing an opportunity to add a potent bat and upgrade the defense in one fell swoop. The shortstop market this winter looks somewhat similar to last year’s third base market in that there are a few clubs with notable holes — Reds, Phillies, Angels — but still a limited enough number that the Twins could jump the market if they strongly feel Semien or Gregorius would be an upgrade. At minimum, the Twins will likely add a shortstop-capable utilityman with backup options Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza now free agents.

As for the pitching staff, the rotation doesn’t look to be as glaring a need as it did this time last year. The Twins will return Cy Young finalist Kenta Maeda as well as righties Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda. In-house options Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer create options at the fourth and fifth spots, and the club has top 100 prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic not far from the Majors.

It still seems likely the Twins will add at least one veteran to this mix, and you could argue that anyone from Trevor Bauer all the way to a steady fourth/fifth starter like Mike Fiers would make sense. Bauer is another player connected to Falvey from his time with the Indians, and Twins bench coach Mike Bell was the D-backs’ farm director when Arizona drafted Bauer with the No. 3 pick.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins would outbid the field to sign Bauer, but they could technically have the payroll space to do it — especially if Rosario departs. Subtracting Rosario would put 2021 payroll at about $90MM — a hefty $43MM shy of 2020’s pre-pandemic $133MM payroll. The Twins can at best be characterized as a dark horse in the Bauer market, but they’re a data- and tech-focused contender that has been willing to take on some risk, so they check plenty of Bauer’s boxes.

The Twins’ playoff rotation would look pretty suspect right now if one of Maeda, Berrios or Pineda went down, so it seems more sensible to add a fourth starter with a playoff-rotation ceiling than a run-of-the-mill innings eater. We put the Twins down as our pick for Corey Kluber on our Top 50 free agent list, but they’d make sense for anyone in that high-caliber reclamation bucket (e.g. James Paxton). A more straightforward Jake Odorizzi reunion would also work, and the trade market could again create some opportunities; Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray and Blake Snell are all already seeing their names circulate on the rumor mill. The Twins reportedly offered Darvish $100MM as a free agent, and they were interested in Gray when the Yankees initially shopped him two years ago.

The Twins’ current slate of losses in the bullpen are tough to overlook. Trevor May has quietly been a lights-out power arm for them, and the potential departures of Romo and Clippard eliminate two more quality setup men. Clippard proved vital in 2020, as the Twins used the changeup specialist as a big weapon against left-handed batters early in the year when they were still absent a lefty setup complement to southpaw Taylor Rogers.

Speaking of Rogers, he’s coming off something of a down season and will likely see his arbitration price tick north of $5MM, though it’s tough to imagine a non-tender of the 29-year-old. Rogers, breakout righty Tyler Duffey and slider-spamming waiver gem Matt Wisler figure to handle plenty of high-leverage spots moving forward, but it’d be a surprise if the Twins didn’t bring in a veteran or two.

Reunions with any of May, Romo or Clippard seem plausible, but with regard to May, it’s important to note that the most expensive free-agent contract the Twins have promised to a reliever was Addison Reed’s two-year, $16.75MM deal. The club spent big to keep incumbent closers Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins at one point, but this is not an organization that has been willing to commit high-dollar contracts to free-agent relievers. If May’s elite velocity and strikeout rates make him one of the market’s buzzier relievers, as we expect at MLBTR, he could price himself past a point at which we’ve seen this team spend for a reliever in an open-market setting.

The extent to which any club will spend this winter can’t be known, but owner Jim Pohlad’s comments have been less grim than some of his ownership counterparts around the game. The Twins were one of the few organizations in MLB not to make an aggressive wave of layoffs and were among the first to commit to paying minor leaguers the weekly $400 stipend through season’s end.

“The pandemic is hard on everybody, and we have to have some degree of compassion and empathy in that regard as how difficult it is on individuals,” Pohlad told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III after the season. “If we are able to continue to pay people, we want to do that. It is a cultural philosophy.”

Pohlad also acknowledged to Neal that he has not yet gotten over another early playoff exit, and Falvey gave a similar stance while talking of taking the team to the next level. Asked about a potential major free-agent splash, Pohlad was guarded but not completely dismissive:

We could, but we don’t know what the market for such a player is going to be. In a sense there has been, in my view — and I’m not speaking for the players or the union — there has to be some degree of risk sharing here.

Perhaps Pohlad saying the Twins “could” make a splash was purely lip service. Certainly, pushing the notion of players sharing the risk doesn’t seem like a portent for a fast-and-loose spending spree. But the Twins might have a bit of wiggle room if they move on from Rosario, and it’s hard to imagine that yet another pair of playoff losses hasn’t enhanced the urgency to break that streak.

The Twins will need to determine what to do with the veritable engine of the “Bomba Squad” (Cruz) and look for some supporting characters on the pitching staff. As is the case with so many clubs following this year’s absence of fans, the primary unknown for the Twins is the extent to which ownership will spend to bring about those changes. Their payroll picture is in good enough shape that it’s reasonable to expect the Twins to be in on some mid-tier free agents and affordable trade targets regardless. And if Pohlad is willing to surprise again a year after spending on Donaldson, they could emerge as a dark horse for some bigger names.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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Thanks to the expanded postseason format, the Brewers were a playoff team in 2020, despite a 29-31 record and a lack of offensive production.  The club now heads into the winter looking to answer a lot of questions throughout the lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $205MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $35MM through 2022
  • Freddy Peralta, RP: $13.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; deal also contains $8MM club option for 2026)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $12MM club/mutual option for 2022, though buyout value could vary)
  • Josh Lindblom, SP: $5.5MM through 2022
  • Brent Suter, RP: $1.5MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Looking to build on postseason appearances in both 2018 and 2019, the Brewers made a number of short-term, relatively inexpensive signings last winter to reinforce the roster after Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departed in free agency.  It was a sound plan on paper and, overall, it worked considering that the Brew Crew again reached the playoffs.

The issue with such a strategy, however, is that the Brewers are now facing another reload on the open market.  Obviously the Brewers couldn’t have foreseen last winter that their already fairly tight payroll situation would impacted by a season of major revenue losses, but their budget figures to be even tighter in 2021.  It doesn’t seem likely that the team will match its (pre-adjusted schedule) 2020 payroll of roughly $97.5MM.

Between their roughly $47.5MM of guaranteed contracts, the above arbitration projections and a handful of pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster, Milwaukee is looking at nearly $81MM in projected payroll.  It remains to be seen how much money president of baseball operations David Stearns will have at his disposal for new additions.  On the plus side, Stearns has shown himself to be adept at finding low-cost gems in trades or free agency, so this will be nothing new for him.  More funds could be freed up in the form of non-tenders, as the Brewers could reasonably part ways with more than half of their 10-player arbitration class.

Cutting ties with Omar Narvaez would leave the Brew Crew without their starting catcher, yet Narvaez had such a tough offensive season that the team may decide he isn’t worth the investment.  Jace Peterson, Alex Claudio, and (especially) Daniel Vogelbach were all pretty productive in limited action with Milwaukee last season, but since lots of similar players are expected to be available in a flooded non-tender market, the Brewers could look for cheaper options elsewhere.  Corey Knebel struggled over 13 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, and with a projected $5.125MM arbitration salary, Knebel might be deemed too expensive to retain given the risk that he doesn’t get back to his old All-Star form.

Speaking of All-Star relievers, Josh Hader is obviously in no danger of being non-tendered, yet could Hader have already thrown his last pitch in a Milwaukee uniform?  The club is reportedly open to hearing trade offers, but as Stearns said in September, being willing to listen to another team’s proposal is much different than actively exploring deals. “We’ve never really looked to move [Hader], and I don’t really anticipate that changing,” Stearns said at the time.

Some might argue that Devin Williams’ emergence as a shutdown reliever makes Hader at least somewhat expendable, though Williams also serves as an argument for keeping Hader; having two outstanding relievers more fully reinforces a pitching staff that traditionally doesn’t extend starters deep into games in the name of efficient run prevention.

Past Milwaukee staffs have kept a pretty loose definition of “starter” and “reliever” rather than sticking to strict roles, though going into 2021, the Brew Crew has four starters in place.  Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes posted front-of-the-rotation results last season, while advanced metrics indicated that Josh Lindblom pitched better than his 5.16 ERA would indicate.  Adrian Houser struggled down the stretch after some good early outings, but the right-hander looks to have the inside track on a rotation spot.

The fifth spot could be filled internally.  Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, or Brent Suter are all candidates to take the job themselves, or perhaps they’ll share starts (or work as bulk pitchers behind an opener).  As much as the Brewers like being flexible with their hurlers, they’ll surely look to add more depth, and re-signing Brett Anderson could be a possibility.  Anderson had a good year in 2020, but since he is entering his age-33 season and doesn’t have the big strikeout numbers that many teams covet, he could be available to the Brewers on another one-year deal.  If not Anderson, expect Milwaukee to target similar veterans on short-term contracts.

The Brewers’ first round of financial decisions this offseason resulted in four declined club options, most notably the team passing on their side of a mutual option with long-time star Ryan Braun.  While not an unexpected move given Braun’s age, price tag, and his average hitting numbers, it is still noteworthy that Braun’s 14-season run with the franchise is done — barring another contract, that is.  Braun said in July that he was leaning towards playing in 2021, and if that stance hasn’t changed, it’s possible the two sides could reunite on an inexpensive one-year deal.  There might not be action on this front, of course, until the Brewers know if the DH will be available to National League teams next season.

Further complicating Stearns’ winter business is the lack of certainty at almost every position around the diamond.  The Brewers are looking for almost a lineup-wide rebound.  Each of Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Luis Urias and Narvaez struggled to varying extents, while Lorenzo Cain is expected to return after opting out of the 2020 season just five games into the year.  Yelich, Cain, and Hiura are the clear everyday building blocks, and Garcia will likely stay due to a lack of trade value.  Urias is still part of the Brewers’ future, and his lackluster 2020 numbers were likely impacted by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis that sidelined him for much of Summer Camp.

Where Urias plays next season depends on what the Brewers do with Orlando Arcia.  The former top prospect had a solid offensive showing (.260/.317/.416 in 189 PA) that resulted in a career-best 96 wRC+, but  this could be too little, too late.  Arcia is another player that could plausibly be non-tendered, but since Urias had yet to establish himself at the MLB level, the Brewers could see value in keeping Arcia around to hold the fort at shortstop.

That could leave Urias in line to play some third base, and Milwaukee will look to augment the position with an addition like last winter’s signing of Eric Sogard (ideally with more return on investment, given Sogard’s lack of production).  Players like Jake Lamb, Enrique Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Brad Miller may be within the Brewers’ price range, and Gyorko hit well enough that one would imagine the team would be interested in bringing him back.  Of the slightly more expensive options, Tommy La Stella could also be a target.  Even further up the financial ladder, the Brewers would make some sense as a bidder for Ha-Seong Kim once the Korean star is posted.  MLBTR projects Kim to land a $40MM contract, but for a 25-year-old with Kim’s skill set, potential, and multi-positional ability, Milwaukee could decide to take the plunge.

Even moreso than Arcia, Narvaez’s chances of being tendered a contract are helped by a lack of other options, as the Brewers would have to either acquire another backstop or roll with the in-house trio of Manny Pina, Jacob Nottingham, and David Freitas.  Known for his offense more than his defense heading into 2020, Narvez had a reversal of a year that saw his bat falter but his pitch-framing rise to elite levels.  An argument can be made that Milwaukee should hang onto Narvaez just to see what they really have in him, and if his hitting can recover in something of a more normal season.

Vogelbach is the favorite for first base if he is tendered a contract, but given his lack of track record, the Brew Crew could try to take advantage of a depressed free agent market to land a more proven hitter at something of a discount.  Carlos Santana stands out as a big bat whose stock is low coming off a down year in 2020.  Most of the aforementioned third base options also have first base experience, and Braun might also be a candidate for first base if the Brewers re-signed him.

If this seems like a lot of wait-and-see for a team hoping to contend, at least it helps the Brewers that their chief rivals in the very competitive NL Central all have big questions of their own.  Should 2020 prove to be an aberration and Yelich, Cain, Narvaez, and others all hit at something close to their past levels of performance, the Brew Crew will be a better team based on internal improvement alone.  Combine this with hitting on a few more short-term acquisitions, and a fourth straight postseason trip could be in the offing.

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Lance Lynn?

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Thus far, there’s been little movement on the free agent market. The couple of market-setting moves we have seen, however, involved starting pitchers: namely, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting $18.9MM qualifying offers, Drew Smyly taking a one-year, $11MM offer from the Braves, and Robbie Ray returning to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM deal. The Smyly and Ray deals say more than either Stroman or Gausman about the current market price for starting pitchers, as those qualifying offers come with a whole set of extenuating circumstances on both sides of the aisle. Regardless, we’re in the very early stages of the offseason and the first few deals don’t always set the pace.

In light of what we’ve seen so far, Lance Lynn’s one-year, $9.3MM deal looks like a more attractive trade piece now than it was even a week ago. But that doesn’t always help grease the wheels. The difficulty in trading a player on a great contract like Lynn is that for the acquiring team, Lynn’s value drops precipitously as the prospect value it takes to acquire him rises. Of course, the Rangers aren’t incentivized to move him without significant and/or talented youth coming back. To oversimplify, trading is hard.

Following a breakout 7.5 bWAR season in 2019, Lynn again posted solid production with a 3.32 ERA across 13 starts totaling a league-leading 84 innings in 2020. Admittedly, Lynn lost about a half mph off his four-seamer, and a career-high 28.1 K% in 2019 fell to 25.9 K% in 2020. That amounts to a difference of roughly 20 strikeouts over a full season.  That’s not a worrisome drop in either velocity or K-rate, but it’s still noteworthy for a guy entering his age-34 season.

Using Fangraphs metrics – which were less bullish on his 2020 than baseball-reference – Lynn’s 4.17 FIP put him on pace for a 3.7 fWAR full-scale season (with a similar workload to 2019). That’s closer to middle-of-the-rotation stalwart than it is unequivocal ace. And yet, brass tacks: that’s valuable.

Potential acquiring teams might look at the number of young players who stepped into roles at the Major League level last season and choose to ride it out with their own cheaper, younger, and yet more volatile assets. Lynn no doubt brings more certainty to a rotation, however, and even his one-year contact can be seen as a positive for a team that values financial flexibility. In this day and age, most teams qualify.

If the Rangers decide to move him, they’ll look to get pitching prospects in return, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Generally speaking, GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of their pool of position player prospects, complimenting their depth in that department. Pitching has long been an area for improvement for Texas, and it makes sense to seek pitching if subtracting a presence like Lynn.

There’s value in keeping Lynn, however. If Daniels is unable to get a blue-chip prospect in return, keeping Lynn isn’t the worst outcome. Besides, the AL West is arguably more wide open than at any point in the last five years. The Houston Astros stranglehold on the division finally lessened in 2020, the A’s could lose shortstop Marcus Semien in free agency, and the Angels are currently pivoting in the front office. The Mariners, meanwhile, have begun to put some solid pieces together, but they’re not a deterrent for Texas. Both are in the same boat, presumably near the bottom of the American League West.

Way-too-early oddsmakers peg the Rangers among the least likely MLB teams to win the World Series with odds around 80-to-1. It’s doubtful whether they have enough pitching beyond Lynn to truly compete, but stranger things have happened. Besides, Rangers’ fans might like to have a pitcher of Lynn’s pedigree in the rotation, even in the event that they struggle to keep pace. It’s easy to say from the outside that the Rangers are best served trading Lynn, but sometimes those living inside the house simply like living there too much to sell it.

So let’s hear from Rangers’ fans. Is it time to take the best prospect package available? Or do you want to see what happens to start the season? If you don’t consider the Rangers your favorite team, we want to hear from you too. There are more possible opinions than what I’m offering below, so do your best to choose the opinion closest to yours, then spell out the difference for us in the comments.

(Poll link for app users)

Transaction Retrospection: White Sox’s Yasmani Grandal Signing

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On this date a year ago, the White Sox signed All-Star catcher Yasmani Grandal to a four-year, $73MM free agent contract. That proved to be the biggest splash of an eventful 2019-20 offseason for the South Siders, who also extended face of the franchise (and future MVP) José Abreu and brought in Dallas Keuchel and Edwin Encarnación.

Chicago’s active offseason clearly signaled they believed their rebuild was through. The hope was that Grandal’s two-way prowess would help solidify the pitching staff and add some offense to a lineup that had been below-average in 2019. In the first year of the deal, the 32-year-old delivered.

Grandal posted a .230/.351/.422 slash line with eight home runs over 194 plate appearances. A spike in strikeouts contributed to that meager .230 batting average, but Grandal more than offset that by drawing plenty of walks and hitting for power. His 117 wRC+ indicates he was seventeen points better than the league average hitter this past season. That’s right in line with his career production and not too far off the pace of his prior two years.

Single-season defensive metrics are quite fluky; that’s all the more true in a season prorated to sixty games. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting Grandal also rated as a top five pitch framer in the sport in 2020, per Statcast. That’s par for the course, as the former first-rounder perennially rates as one of the league’s best at stealing strikes. He also cut down six of thirteen attempted base stealers. There’s no question Grandal was a key piece of Chicago’s 35-25 record, which was enough to qualify for the expanded postseason format.

Grandal’s continued presence on the roster is a big reason the Sox aren’t expected to re-sign James McCann, who profiles as the second-best catcher on the market this offseason on the heels of a monster 2020 effort. Wherever McCann ends up, the White Sox should still have one of the league’s best catching situations. GM Rick Hahn and the rest of the front office have to be pleased with the initial return on their biggest investment last winter.

Looking For A Match In A Nolan Arenado Trade

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Nolan Arenado’s future in Colorado — or perhaps the lack thereof — will be one of the main storylines throughout the 2020-21 offseason. The 29-year-old has publicly voiced dissatisfaction with the organization in the past, and another poor season followed comments from owner Dick Monfort that foreshadow a tight-budgeted winter don’t figure to improve the relationship.

In this week’s Offseason Outlook for the Rockies, I laid out the reasons that trading Arenado isn’t as simple as some might think. On the surface, a five-time All-Star who has won eight Gold Gloves in eight MLB seasons while hitting .293/.349/.541 and averaging nearly five WAR per season seems like a player who’d be highly in demand. As with any player, however, Arenado’s trade value is inextricably linked to his contractual status, and the franchise-record extension he signed in 2019 muddies the water.

Nolan Arenado | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Arenado is still owed a hefty six years and $199MM between now and the 2026 season. He’s due $35MM in 2021, and his contract allows him to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM at season’s end. Any club that acquires Arenado recognizes there’s a chance he’ll only be around for one season. If Arenado plays at the level an acquiring team would hope for upon making the trade, that team knows there’s a chance he’ll opt out. The Covid-19 pandemic has obviously changed the financial outlook for many clubs and altered the sports economy, but Arenado would surely look at Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM contract and wonder whether he could approach that level with a big 2021 showing.

On the other hand, Arenado had his worst season ever at the plate in 2020 and finished the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness. That’s enough to already make some clubs wary, particularly because if that proves to be the start of a trend, they’d be stuck paying more than $33MM annually to a player on the decline. There’s no way Arenado opts out if he repeats this past season’s .253/.303/.454 output, so there’s inherent risk of being stuck with an albatross contract here.

A trade is further complicated by the fact that the Rockies would of course want to receive quality young talent in return. The optics of dumping Arenado simply to be rid of his salary would be extraordinarily poor for Monfort and general manager Jeff Bridich. Given the risk associated with the contract and Arenado’s shaky 2020 campaign, it’s frankly difficult to imagine a team taking on Arenado’s contract and parting with considerable prospect capital. The Rockies might have to pay down some of the deal and/or take another sizable salary on in return if they hope to find a palatable trade.

As if that context doesn’t complicate matters enough, also consider that Arenado has a full no-trade clause baked into the deal. He may welcome the the opportunity for a fresh start, but it’s possible he’ll need to be incentivized to waive that clause as well. Topping things off is that he’s not even the only All-Star third baseman who could be moved this winter. The Cubs figure to seriously entertain the possibility of trading Kris Bryant. A former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP, Bryant is coming off a down season of his own but has a similar ceiling with none of Arenado’s long-term risk. Bryant is in his final year of arbitration and is a free agent next winter. Only one team can get Bryant, of course, so interested teams that miss out could turn to Arenado. It’s also possible that some clubs prefer the Arenado gamble — long-term risk and all. Regardless, Bryant’s presence on the market plays a factor in any potential Arenado talks.

Suffice it to say, trading Arenado is a daunting task for the Rockies. Based on name value alone, one might think nearly every team would be inclined to look, but the majority of clubs around the game can be written off almost immediately. We can rule out low-spending clubs like the Indians, Pirates, Rays, Athletics and Marlins, as Arenado’s contract would be considered too extravagant for their budgets. The D-backs are still paying Zack Greinke to play for someone else and traded Paul Goldschmidt away rather than meeting his $130MM extension price — far less than the $199MM owed to Arenado.

The Brewers already gave a mega-deal to Christian Yelich and wouldn’t risk a second one. The Angels signed Rendon to the aforementioned $245MM deal last winter, and the Twins are very likely out after inking Josh Donaldson for $92MM. Cincinnati has Eugenio Suarez at third base and probably couldn’t stomach paying a combined $60MM to Arenado and Joey Votto anyhow, as phonetically pleasing as that pairing might otherwise be. The Astros have Alex Bregman at third base and could conceivably move him to another position, but that’s a reach with Carlos Correa locked in at shortstop. The Phillies look set at the corners with Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins.

We can also eliminate any clubs that are in the midst of a rebuild. The Rangers appear to be just starting down that road, and the Orioles aren’t far enough along in the process to consider a splash of this magnitude. The Tigers and Royals are hoping to soon emerge from rebuilding efforts, but this doesn’t seem likely for either unless it’s part of a sudden and unexpected all-in push. Elsewhere in the AL Central, the White Sox have a strong infield as is and would probably prefer to allocate resources to the rotation and/or right field. Maybe they could try Yoan Moncada in right, but Arenado is something of a square peg in a round hole for the South Siders.

Over in St. Louis, the Cardinals have been connected to a heavy-hitting third baseman for years, be it Arenado or Donaldson. It hasn’t come to pass yet, and while the need very arguably still exists after Matt Carpenter floundered through a tough 2020 season, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals adding a contract of this magnitude. This is the same team that just declined Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM option in the name of financial flexibility, and the same club that seems to be grappling with whether it can afford to re-sign franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. brazenly lamented the baseball industry’s lack of profitability earlier this spring and more recently offered a very reserved assessment of his club’s payroll outlook.

That’s a whole lot of teams that don’t seem likely to jump in on Arenado, so let’s turn to run through some clubs that might not be immediately ruled out.

Mets: Now backed by baseball’s richest owner and suddenly spared the $20.25MM they previously owed to Robinson Cano in 2021, the Mets are seemingly connected to every big fish on the free-agent and trade markets alike. Arenado would add an all-world defender to a club whose defense has been miserable for several years running. Incumbents J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil are solid options, but McNeil can play second with Cano suspended and Arenado should be a big upgrade over Davis. The Mets could conceivably even put Davis in a package to acquire Arenado, as he’d give the Rox a controllable, quality alternative with a nice bat.

Nationals: The loss of Rendon was clearly felt throughout the Nationals’ lineup in 2020, as Carter Kieboom wasn’t able to step up and fill the void. The Nats have Max Scherzer’s contract off the books after the 2021 season and could reallocate those long-term dollars to Arenado while entrusting Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin to front the rotation. Washington’s payroll ranks toward the top of the league on a yearly basis, and GM Mike Rizzo isn’t afraid to make high-priced splashes. Adding Arenado would block Kieboom at third base, perhaps pushing him to second base or making him expendable in a trade — be it this hypothetical deal or another swap.

Braves: The Braves don’t have a clear third baseman in light of Austin Riley’s struggles, making this a solid on-paper fit. However, this is the exact type of move general manager Alex Anthopoulos has avoided since coming to Atlanta. He eschewed a long-term commitment to Josh Donaldson despite considerable fan backlash and has yet to acquire any player on more than a three-year deal (Will Smith). The seven- and eight-year deals for Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. were pre-arbitration bargains — the polar opposite of paying top-of-the-market value for a superstar already approaching his 30th birthday. Additionally, the club will likely still need to set aside some money to extend Freddie Freeman. This will be a frequently suggested landing spot for Arenado, but contextually, it doesn’t feel as strong as it looks at first glance.

Blue Jays: General manager Ross Atkins has already talked about acquiring “elite” players this winter, as the Jays have watched a strong young core emerge at the MLB level. Incumbent third baseman Travis Shaw is an obvious non-tender candidate, and while the Jays have some appealing youngsters down on the farm, a healthy Arenado is better than the ceiling of virtually any third base prospect. The Blue Jays quietly have quite a bit of financial flexibility, and if they could try to send Randal Grichuk back to Colorado as one of the pieces to offset a portion of the weight of Arenado’s contract (and fill a need for the Rockies at the same time).

Dodgers: A team with pockets as deep as the Dodgers and a farm system to match is of course going to be mentioned in connection to any high-profile trade target. They’ve been linked to Arenado in the past, and this morning while I was finishing this very piece, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote about their continued interest. Adding Arenado would effectively displace free agent Justin Turner, who is revered in the L.A. clubhouse, but at least for the moment, there’s a vacancy at the hot corner at Dodger Stadium. Of course, the Dodgers just locked up Mookie Betts on his own mega-deal and may not be keen on issuing another. And it’s anyone’s guess whether the Rockies would actually consider trading one of the best players in franchise history to a division nemesis.

Giants: Speaking of division rivals — the Giants look to be coming out of their own rebuilding effort and have the money to take on Arenado’s contract. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Johnny Cueto will all be off the books after the 2021 season, leaving the long-term payroll outlook wide open. Veteran Evan Longoria is a roadblock at third base for the moment, but the Giants could send him back to Colorado as a means of both giving the Rockies a ready-made replacement and also offsetting some of the considerable cost they’d be taking on with Arenado’s contract. Younger talent would surely need to be added to make this appealing for the Rockies, of course. President of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has spoken of a focus on the pitching staff and only looking at “complementary” position players, but he’s also said he hopes to return to the playoffs as soon as 2021.

Padres: We might as well get a little weird and round out the division-rival trifecta with an off-the-wall Padres suggestion. The Friars already have Manny Machado and his $300MM contract at third base and young superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop. There were at least rumblings of potentially moving Tatis to the outfield in the event of a Francisco Lindor acquisition by the Padres, however. Adding Arenado would require an even more elaborate position shuffle, with Machado going back to shortstop and Tatis moving to the outfield grass. It’s a long shot that would likely require the Rockies taking a bad contract back — e.g. Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer — with the Padres chipping in some notable young talent. We’ve all learned by now not to count San Diego general manager A.J. Preller out of any scenario, but there’d be a whole lot of moving parts to get Arenado down to the Gaslamp Quarter.

Yankees: Like the Dodgers, the Yankees are almost an obligatory entrant in these types of exercises. They’re looking to pare back payroll this winter after spending at record levels in 2020, and their primary focus appears to be on retaining DJ LeMahieu. Arenado would be a luxury rather than a necessity — and a risky one at that — but the Yankees aren’t short on MLB-ready talent they could send back. Either of Gio Urshela or Miguel Andujar could appeal to the Rockies, and the team has some young pitching to work in as well. Arenado would be a tough fit with both Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton both on the books long-term, of course.

Cubs: It seems unlikely that the Cubs would take on a major contract after consecutive offseasons of effectively sitting out free agency. Owner Tom Ricketts has spent two years claiming not to have additional resources to allocate to the roster and earlier this summer proclaimed that ownership losses during the pandemic have been “biblical” in nature. The Cubs just laid off 100-some employees, per The Athletic. But they’re also expected to be active in reshaping the roster under new president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer, and they could jettison enough salary that cramming Arenado onto the books doesn’t seem impossible. Some combination of Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish and Willson Contreras could be moved this winter. Fitting Arenado into the picture still could be a stretch, though.

Red Sox: Boston already has Rafael Devers at the hot corner, but there’s been some speculation about him sliding across the diamond due to defensive struggles at third base. It’s admittedly tough to see the Red Sox taking on a contract like this less than one year after trading Mookie Betts and dumping David Price’s contract in order to limbo under the luxury tax line, but they’re a big-market team with huge payroll capabilities and probably don’t want to be a division afterthought for too long.

Mariners: Saving the most fun suggestion for last, let’s not overlook Jerry Dipoto’s ability to surprise the baseball world. “Trader Jerry” has rebuilt this organization’s farm system in a matter of two years and brought a number of interesting young players to Seattle — many of whom have now reached the Majors. Adding Arenado to an infield that already has two young Gold Glove winners in J.P. Crawford and Evan White would give the club a defense for the ages, and before anyone questions whether Seattle can afford to pay Arenado $33MM per year, consider that as of 2022, the only players on the books for the M’s are Marco Gonzales ($5.75MM) and White ($1.4MM). Bringing Arenado into the mix likely pushes Kyle Seager to designated hitter for the final year of his contract, which might be for the best given his declining defensive metrics.

—

That’s a whole lot of words on trading Arenado, but it’s important to remember that a deal coming together shouldn’t be considered a given. Arenado is not a Francisco Lindor-esque guarantee to be traded prior to Opening Day due to the complexity of his contract and the difficulty the Rockies will have getting what they’d deem fair value in return. Any of the highlighted teams at the end of this exercise could emerge as a rumored trade partner, though some are obvious reaches. In my view, the best clubs for the Rockies to work with are the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Blue Jays and, yes, the Mariners. That’s not to say any of those clubs are in talks or are likely to acquire him, however.

Of course, any trade depends on the extent to which those clubs believe Arenado can rebound from a mediocre year at the plate and the extent to which they’re willing to gamble on the glaring downside that is inherently woven into his contract. Trading Arenado isn’t as simple as some will make it out to be this winter, but it’s a reality the Rockies will have to explore.

40-Man Roster Roundup

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This evening marked the deadline for teams to add Rule 5 draft-eligible players to their 40-man rosters. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained the process in full this morning). Accordingly, we’ve seen a large swath of transactions in the last few hours. Here, we’ll make note of the players each team protected from the Rule 5 draft, acquired from outside the organization, and removed from the roster before the deadline. We’ll also keep track of how many 40-man roster spots each team has left vacant.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

  • Added to roster: Rylan Bannon, Michael Baumann, Yusniel Diaz, Zac Lowther, Isaac Mattson, Alexander Wells
  • Designated for assignment: Renato Nunez
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Boston Red Sox

  • Added to roster: Eduard Bazardo, Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, Connor Seabold, Connor Wong
  • Designated for assignment: Matt Hall, Ryan Weber
  • Outrighted: Kyle Hart
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

New York Yankees

  • Added to roster: Roansy Contreras, Yoendrys Gomez, Oswald Peraza, Alexander Vizcaino
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Added to roster: Josh Lowe, Drew Strotman, Taylor Walls
  • Designated for assignment: Brian O’Grady, Hunter Renfroe
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Added to roster: Riley Adams, Otto Lopez, Gabriel Moreno, Josh Palacios, Ty Tice
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

  • Acquired: Emilio Vargas (from Diamondbacks)
  • Added to roster: Jake Burger, Tyler Johnson, Gavin Sheets
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Cleveland Indians

  • Added to roster: Gabriel Arias, Ernie Clement, Nolan Jones, Eli Morgan, Carlos Vargas
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Detroit Tigers

  • Added to roster: Alex Faedo, Alex Lange, Matt Manning, Joey Wentz
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Kansas City Royals

  • Added to roster: Khalil Lee, Sebastian Rivero, Daniel Tillo, Angel Zerpa
  • Designated for assignment: Glenn Sparkman, Gabe Speier
  • Outrighted: Chance Adams
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Minnesota Twins

  • Added to roster: Jordan Balazovic, Bailey Ober, Ben Rortvedt
  • Number of open roster spots: 2

AL West

Houston Astros

  • Added to roster: Tyler Ivey, Freudis Nova, Jairo Solis, Peter Solomon, Forrest Whitley
  • Traded: Brandon Bailey (to Reds)
  • Lost on waivers: Rogelio Armenteros (to Diamondbacks), Jack Mayfield (to Braves)
  • Number of open roster spots: 1

Los Angeles Angels

  • Added to roster: Brandon Marsh, Chris Rodriguez
  • Number of open roster spots: 2

Oakland Athletics

  • Added to roster: Wandisson Charles, Greg Deichmann, Miguel Romero
  • Number of open roster spots: 5

Seattle Mariners

  • Added to roster: Sam Delaplane, Juan Then, Taylor Trammell, Wyatt Mills
  • Number of open roster spots: 1

Texas Rangers

  • Added to roster: A.J. Alexy, David Garcia, Yerry Rodriguez
  • Number of open roster spots: 2

NL East

Atlanta Braves

  • Added to roster: Kyle Muller
  • Acquired: Jack Mayfield (from Astros)
  • Number of open roster spots: 2

Miami Marlins

  • Added to roster: Jose Devers, Jerar Encarnacion
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

New York Mets

  • Signed: Sam McWilliams
  • Number of open roster spots: 3

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Added to roster: Kyle Dohy, Bailey Falter, Damon Jones, Nick Maton, Francisco Morales, Simon Muzziotti
  • Number of open roster spots: 3

Washington Nationals

  • Added to roster: Joan Adon, Yasel Antuna
  • Number of open roster spots: 7

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

  • Added to roster: Cory Abbott, Christopher Morel, Keegan Thompson
  • Number of open roster spots: 3

Cincinnati Reds

  • Added to roster: Vladimir Gutierrez, Riley O’Brien, Jared Solomon
  • Acquired: Brandon Bailey (from Astros)
  • Number of open roster spots: 4

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Added to roster: Alec Bettinger, Mario Feliciano, Dylan File
  • Number of open roster spots: 1

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Added to roster: Rodolfo Castro, Max Kranick
  • Designated for assignment: Jose Osuna, Trevor Williams
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Added to roster: Ivan Herrera, Angel Rondon
  • Number of open roster spots: 1

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Added to roster: J.B. Bukauskas, Stuart Fairchild, Luis Frias, Matt Peacock, Geraldo Perdomo
  • Acquired: Rogelio Armenteros (from Astros)
  • Designated for Assignment: Junior Guerra, Joel Payamps
  • Outrighted: Domingo Leyba
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Colorado Rockies

  • Added to roster: Bret Boswell, Lucas Gilbreath, Helcris Olivarez, Colton Welker
  • Designated for assignment: Ashton Goudeau, Jesus Tinoco
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Added to roster: Gerardo Carrillo, Andre Jackson, Zach Reks, Edwin Uceta
  • Number of open roster spots: 3

San Diego Padres

  • Added to roster: Reggie Lawson, Tucupita Marcano, Mason Thompson
  • Designated for assignment: Luis Perdomo
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

San Francisco Giants

  • Added to roster: Alexander Canario, Kervin Castro, Camilo Doval, Gregory Santos
  • Designated for assignment: Aramis Garcia, Jordan Humphreys, Chris Shaw
  • Number of open roster spots: 0

Deadline To Protect Players From Rule 5 Draft Is Tonight

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As noted last month when we ran through various key dates for the offseason, tonight marks the deadline for teams to protect players from the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. Clubs wishing to protect Rule 5-eligible players must add them to their 40-man rosters by 6pm ET tonight or else risk losing them to another team during next month’s draft, which takes place on Dec. 10.

Eligibility is dependent on a player’s age and the timing of his entry to the professional ranks. A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster in advance of the deadline. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster tomorrow. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2017 class, high school draftees out of the 2016 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2016-17 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)

Players who meet those criteria but are not added to the 40-man roster by tonight’s deadline will be eligible to be conditionally drafted to another club at next month’s event. The new team will have to take said player and not only place him directly on its 40-man roster but also carry him on the Major League roster throughout the 2021 season. Rule 5 draftees must remain on the Major League roster for the entire season in order to be retained by their new club. They can be placed on the Major League injured list, of course, but a player must spend at least 90 total days on the active roster in order to shed his Rule 5 designation. Should he not spend 90 days on the active roster, his Rule 5 designation would roll over into the 2022 season and remain in place until his 90th (cumulative) day on a big league roster.

As those who’ve followed prior offseasons surely recall, tonight’s looming deadline will prompt plenty of action over the course of the day. Expect a handful of trades and waiver claims as well as a slew of DFAs today as teams look to create 40-man roster space to protect Rule 5-eligible prospects. Trades made in the runup to this deadline may not look like blockbusters at the time, but one need only look back three years to see that trades on this day can have enormous ramifications; on this day in 2017, the Astros traded a yet-to-debut outfielder named Ramon Laureano to the A’s for minor league righty Brandon Bailey (who was not Rule 5-eligible and thus did not need to be protected).

As you might imagine, it’s easier to account for protection of prospects for teams with extra 40-man roster space, but it’s not as simple as having an opening. That club also must be able to carry a player in that spot throughout the winter and into the season. Adding a player that wouldn’t have been selected (or wouldn’t have lasted on an active roster) therefore has its own risk: if you end up needing the space, you might have to expose such a player to outright waivers in the middle of the season.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has a breakdown of the Rule 5-eligible players from each team’s Top 30 prospects who’ll need to be added by tonight’s deadline or else exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Seven of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, headlined by Astros righty Forrest Whitley, need to be protected this year. Those seven will assuredly be protected, but not every player within a club’s top 30 rankings will be added to a 40-man roster today.

Not long ago, we’d already have seen a slew of 40-man additions and probably some minor transactions in the week leading up to this deadline as teams prepared. Today’s brand of general manager/president of baseball operations, however, seems wholly intent on waiting right up until every deadline to make final decisions — be it the trade deadline, Rule 5 protection deadline, non-tender deadline, etc. The Cardinals have made a pair of 40-man adds this week — catcher Ivan Herrera and righty Angel Rondon — but it’s been silence from the league’s other 29 teams.

This year’s Covid-19 pandemic, of course, only further obscures the already difficult task of determining which minor leaguers run the risk of being selected by another organization. Most clubs didn’t get to see the bulk of their prospects in a competitive setting in 2020. Even more difficult was their lack of looks at minor leaguers in other organizations. These decisions are never easy for any team, but the challenges of the 2020 make this year’s slate of roster protection transactions all the more complicated.

Here’s a look at how many 40-man roster openings each club has to work with at the moment, although it’s important to recognize that these totals will change within hours of this writing due to the aforementioned avalanche of transactions that looms:

Nationals: 9

Phillies: 9

Athletics: 8

Reds: 8

Dodgers: 7

Cubs: 6

Blue Jays: 5

Indians: 5

Orioles: 5

Mariners: 5

Rangers: 5

Twins: 5

Angels: 4

Brewers: 4

Mets: 4

Red Sox: 4

Tigers: 4

White Sox: 4

Yankees: 4

Astros: 3

Braves: 3

Diamondbacks: 2

Marlins: 2

Padres: 2

Rockies: 2

Cardinals: 1

Giants: 1

Rays: 1

Royals: 1

Pirates: 0

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The 2020 campaign represented a major step in the right direction for the Padres, who clinched their first playoff berth since 2006 and advanced in the postseason for the first time since 1998. While things are no doubt looking up for the franchise, its offseason hasn’t come without some drastic changes in the early going. The team found out earlier this week that right-hander Mike Clevinger won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and then executive chairman Ron Fowler stepped down from his role. Fowler’s exit leaves the Padres with a new control person in Ron Seidler.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Manny Machado, 3B: $240MM through 2028
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $79MM through 2025
  • Wil Myers, OF: $41MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout for 2023)
  • Drew Pomeranz, LHP: $22MM through 2023
  • Mike Clevinger, RHP: $11.5MM through 2022
  • Craig Stammen, RHP: $5MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)
  • Pierce Johnson, RHP: $3MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Padres are fortunate enough that they shouldn’t have to spend much time worrying about their catcher position or their infield in the coming months. In-season acquisition Austin Nola looks like the answer as the Padres’ primary backstop, though they may have to decide whether to deploy Francisco Mejia as his backup, use him as a trade chip and turn the role over to Luis Campusano, or shop for help from outside the organization. Other than that, the Padres look set with the superstar third base-shortstop tandem of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the left side of their infield and second baseman Jake Cronenworth and first baseman Eric Hosmer occupying the other positions. The main concern in that group is Tatis’ future, as the Padres have to worry about keeping him in the fold for the long haul with a contract extension. The two sides have already expressed interest in mapping out a long-term arrangement.

There is less certainty in the outfield, though the Padres appear to have their solution in center with Trent Grisham. Right fielder Wil Myers had a tremendous bounce-back year in 2020, but if the Padres had their druthers, perhaps they would move on from the pricey three seasons left on his contract in a trade. That looks unlikely unless San Diego takes back a similarly inflated contract, so Myers figures to remain with the team. While those two positions may be spoken for going forward, left field looks like less of a sure thing. The Padres could just keep Tommy Pham, but his production cratered during an injury-shortened 2020, and non-tendering him would save the Padres about $8MM. Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar – who played more games in left than any other Padre last season – is a free agent.

If the Padres say goodbye to Pham, there’s a case that they should just re-sign Profar, who had a respectable year. Otherwise, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner and Robbie Grossman are among those they could target in free agency. Of course, more choices will become available when teams announce which players they’re non-tendering.

With Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies and Chris Paddack comprising 80 percent of their starting staff, the Padres’ rotation seemed to be in enviable shape just a couple days ago. Their confidence probably took a hit Wednesday, though, with Clevinger’s out-of-nowhere TJ procedure. He won’t be a factor next year, but the Padres do still have most of their rotation settled with Lamet and Davies, who each broke out in 2020, and Paddack. They also feature MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi and Ryan Weathers as in-house options who could assume starting spots in 2021.

If the Padres don’t want to turn over spots to two members of that group, they’ll have plenty of free-agent possibilities. Southern California native Trevor Bauer is easily the cream of the crop, but signing him may require the Padres to hand out yet another nine-figure contract. More modest options include their own free agent, Garrett Richards, as well as Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, ex-Friar Corey Kluber, Jose Quintana and James Paxton, among others. The Padres also look like a realistic trade suitor for the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, who’s due a modest $8MM next year and whom his team seems likely to trade.

The bullpen may be an area of some emphasis in the offseason for the Padres, who could lose summer pickup Trevor Rosenthal in free agency. Former star closer Kirby Yates is also on the market, though he didn’t pitch much in 2020 because of injuries. That said, the Padres do have a lot of their 2021 bullpen already figured out with Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Craig Stammen set to reprise their roles. Austin Adams and Tim Hill are along among the veterans remaining in the mix, but it still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Padres seek bullpen help from elsewhere. The big prize could be Josh Hader, whom the Brewers are open to trading; otherwise, in no particular order, Rosenthal, Yates, former Padre Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Trevor May, Jake McGee, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene are some late-game hurlers who should draw their share of interest in free agency.

With the Padres in the throes of a seemingly endless playoff drought at this time last offseason, general manager A.J. Preller had his back up against the wall a winter ago. Preller and the team he built found a way to deliver, though, and now the Padres look like a club that should contend again in 2021 with another productive offseason. The Padres are short on glaring holes, but there is at least room for improvement in their pitching staff and perhaps their outfield.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made notable progress in 2020 (granted, there was nowhere to go but up after their previous campaign), but they still finished well under .500 for the fourth straight year. GM Al Avila has already hired A.J. Hinch to replace the retired Ron Gardenhire as the Tigers’ next manager. The next step is improving their roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH: $102MM through 2023 (including $8MM buyout for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Let’s start with the infield, which could see quite a shakeup this offseason. The Tigers had a couple of 20-something breakout players there in shortstop Willi Castro and third baseman/first baseman Jeimer Candelario, but it’s not clear where either will primarily line up next season.

In regards to Castro, Avila said after the season (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com), “We feel he has the athletic ability to play anywhere in the infield.”

Although Castro had a huge offensive year at short, that doesn’t mean the Tigers will keep him there. They may instead be tempted to pursue Korean star Ha-Seong Kim, a 24-year-old whom the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes will post this offseason. According to Baseball America, Kim’s a top 100-caliber prospect, so lots of teams – including rebuilding clubs – should be after him. From Detroit’s perspective, it would seemingly make sense to bring in Kim as a Day 1 starter, either as a third baseman or shortstop. If it’s the latter, the Tigers could put Castro at the keystone, move on from free agent Jonathan Schoop and eschew the rest of the middle class of second base free agents (Kolten Wong, Cesar Hernandez and Tommy La Stella are among those names).

Candelario, meanwhile, began the year as the Tigers’ third baseman, but he shifted to first after C.J. Cron underwent season-ending knee surgery in August. Cron’s a free agent who’s near the top of a weak class for free-agent first basemen; so, rather than go back to him or try for a different veteran first baseman (Carlos Santana and Justin Smoak are also a couple of names out there), perhaps the Tigers will leave Candelario at the position. A Candelario-Castro-Kim scenario from right to left would leave the Tigers with a potential need at third, though they may simply decide to let Isaac Paredes sink or swim there or sign someone like Jake Lamb or Marwin Gonzalez to man the spot. Paredes, for his part, had a very rough debut as the Tigers’ top third baseman in 2020, but he’s still just 21 years old and not far removed from top 100 status as a prospect.

Elsewhere in the Tigers’ lineup, it’s unclear how they’ll handle catcher or assemble their outfield. They signed former Yankees catcher Austin Romine to a $4.1MM guarantee last offseason with the hope that he’d emerge as a true full-time player, but he instead endured an awful season and is once again due to reach free agency. Detroit’s other choices, Grayson Greiner and Eric Haase, also produced next to nothing at the plate, while Jake Rogers still hasn’t established himself at the MLB level.

Avila said last month he’d like offensive help behind the plate, but he seemed to suggest he’d rather rely on the eventual emergence of Rogers. It’s unknown, then, whether the Tigers will seek veteran help at the position in the offseason. If they do, the Tigers probably won’t be be in on the two best free-agent catchers available, J.T. Realmuto and ex-Tiger James McCann. However, the GM’s son, former Tiger Alex Avila, as well as Yadier Molina, Jason Castro, Mike Zunino, Wilson Ramos, Kurt Suzuki, Robinson Chirinos and Tyler Flowers are available as Band-Aids if the team wants to bridge the gap to Rogers in free agency. Gary Sanchez could also end up in free agency or as an attainable trade target if the Yankees decide to move on from him.

The Tigers are probably content with two-thirds of their outfield with center fielder JaCoby Jones and corner man Victor Reyes. The other spot may be up for grabs, though, as Christin Stewart didn’t hit in either of the previous two seasons, they can’t count on Niko Goodrum as a regular, and Daz Cameron hasn’t shown he’s ready for a full-time major league role. MLBTR predicts the club will supplement its outfield with a Jurickson Profar signing, but Joc Pederson, Robbie Grossman, Kevin Pillar and Adam Eaton are among others it could spend on for short-term help.

Turning to the pitching side, the Tigers seem to have three-fifths of next year’s rotation set with Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Michael Fulmer. But Turnbull was the only member of the trio who performed well in 2020. Boyd looked like a breakout candidate as recently as the first half of 2019, but his production has fallen off a cliff since then. The Tigers will soon have to make a decision on whether to retain Boyd, as Anthony Franco of MLBTR explained last weekend. Like Boyd, Fulmer has shown flashes in the past, but he’s coming off a rough return from Tommy John surgery.

Beyond Boyd, Turnbull and Fulmer, the Tigers do have some rather promising young hurlers in Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Alex Faedo – four of their top prospects. Mize and Skuball debuted in the majors in 2020, though they had trouble keeping runs off the board in their first taste of MLB action.

Any of Mize, Skubal, Manning or Faedo could factor into the Tigers’ rotation next year, but it seems they’ll look to take some pressure off by adding at least one veteran this offseason. They’ve already shown interest in free agent Taijuan Walker, who could be a reasonably priced acquisition on a one- or tw0-year deal. Former Tiger Rick Porcello, Garrett Richards, Martin Perez and Mike Minor might also be among potential targets for the team.

Moving to the bullpen, the Tigers look to be mostly set with what they have. Daniel Norris blossomed in a relief role in 2020, while Jose Cisnero also turned in encouraging results. Bryan Garcia, Gregory Soto, Buck Farmer and Tyler Alexander also probably aren’t going anywhere, though there’s at least room for improvement over John Schreiber and Joe Jimenez (the latter looks like a non-tender candidate). That’s not to say the Tigers will shop near the top of the market for relief help, but with the wealth of veteran bullpen options looking for deals, they should be able to improve their late-game outlook in free agency.

The Tigers have had their share of aggressive offseasons in the past, but they have been relatively quiet of late during their rebuild. Once again, the Tigers probably won’t be that active this winter. That said, with some legitimate talent in or near the majors and a rising farm system led by last year’s No. 1 overall pick, first baseman Spencer Torkelson, Detroit’s time is coming.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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For a second straight offseason, Rockies owner Dick Monfort set the stage for a tight-budgeted winter for his club. “There will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality, and each club will have to adjust,” Monfort wrote in a letter to season ticketholders at the end of October.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $199MM through 2026 (Arenado can opt out of the contract after 2021)
  • German Marquez, RHP: $36MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Charlie Blackmon, OF: $21MM through 2021 (contract contains player options for 2022-23)
  • Trevor Story, SS: $17.5MM through 2021
  • Scott Oberg, RHP: $11MM through 2022
  • Ian Desmond, INF/OF: $10MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $15MM mutual option on RHP Wade Davis (paid $1MM buyout)
  • Declined $12MM mutual option on 1B Daniel Murphy (paid $6MM buyout)

Free Agents

Despite a 91-loss season in 2019 and an offseason that lacked any meaningful additions to the roster, Monfort projected a 94-win campaign for his club in 2020. The Rox got out to a hot start, but their eventual .433 winning percentage was actually worse than their .438 mark in 2019. Now, they’re faced with similar payroll constraints and the continued awkward saga with a franchise icon, Nolan Arenado.

Monfort opened the 2019-20 offseason by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility, and while he stopped a bit short of being so on the nose, his email to fans and a quick look at Colorado’s payroll ledger show that they’re likely in a similar boat. The Rox were set to open the 2020 season with a roughly $146MM payroll prior to prorating salaries, and despite the fact that the contracts of Daniel Murphy, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw are off the books, they’re not far from that range.

The Rox owe a combined $93MM to Arenado, Trevor Story, German Marquez, Ian Desmond and Scott Oberg. Even if they non-tender all of the candidates listed above, that figure could rise into the $115MM range. Add in pre-arbitration players and the $7MM worth of option buyouts they paid after the World Series, and the Rockies don’t seem like a club that is teeming with surplus cash. They may not quite be to 2020 levels of payroll, but that was already a franchise-record outlay. We can’t assume they’re comfortable returning to that level, so it appears spending will be measured.

It’s that financial outlook, paired with Arenado’s persistent frustration, that have led to overwhelming trade speculation. Onlookers ought to be plenty familiar with the public nature of Arenado’s dissatisfaction at this point; the five-time All-Star flatly said he felt “disrespected” by the organization last winter. Arenado was reportedly was frustrated with the team’s lack of offseason activity, despite a promise at the time of his extension to make consistent efforts to field a winning club. Arenado told Denver 7’s Troy Renck last February that general manager Jeff Bridich, in particular, is “disrespectful.”

Given another poor showing and playoff miss from the Rox, many fans and pundits alike expect an Arenado trade to be a focal point of the club’s offseason. It is indeed reasonable to expect that the club will explore the market, but the path to an actual trade is anything but straightforward. Arenado has six years and $199MM remaining on his contract — an enormous sum that is sure to cause owners around the game to balk at a time when most clubs are frantically cutting costs.

Looming beyond the overall commitment is the fact that Arenado can opt out of the contract next winter. In many ways, that creates a lose-lose situation for interested parties. Arenado could play at his customary superstar level, enjoy another lofty finish in MVP voting and bolt for free agency. Alternatively, if he struggles or sustains a major injury, any acquiring club would be left with the remaining five years and $164MM on the contract. When the best-case scenario is one year of elite play and the worst-case scenario is six years of a $33MM+ salary for a player whose production has taken a step back, how much surplus value is there for the Rockies to peddle?

The elephant in the room is that Arenado simply didn’t have a great 2020 season. He did still secure his eighth Gold Glove in his eighth Major League season, but Arenado logged a rather bleak .253/.303/.434 slash in this year’s 201 plate appearances — output that is miles from the .295/.351/.546 line he posted in his career prior to 2020. Arenado entered the year with a 120 wRC+ — production 20 percent better than a league-average hitter when weighted for home park and league — and turned in a mark of 76 in 2020 (24 percent worse than a league-average bat).

One could argue that there’s some bad luck at play, and that could be partly true. However, Arenado’s 87.3 mph average exit velocity, 33.7 percent hard-hit rate and 5.4 percent barrel rate were all far and away the lowest of his career. Paired with his enormous salary and the opt-out downside, some clubs may not feel Arenado has much positive trade value. That’s an outlandish-looking comment at first blush, but at the very least, the Rockies won’t be getting a king’s ransom in a trade. They’ll quite possibly have trouble convincing another team to pay the full freight of the contract.

If the Rox are looking to offload salary while adding some controllable young talent, shortstop Trevor Story is the easier piece to market, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored. We’ll avoid rehashing his argument at too great a length, but suffice it to say that a 28-year-old career .277/.343/.535 hitter (114 wRC+) with high-end defense of his own is a pretty desirable player under any circumstance — but certainly when he is playing on an eminently more reasonable one-year, $17.5MM pact. Any of the Phillies, Reds or Angels would stand out as a clear fit, and other contenders like the Yankees, Twins or Blue Jays could make sense if they shuffle some pieces around. Top prospect Brendan Rodgers, meanwhile, is on hand for the Rox as a potential heir to Story’s spot.

Of course, while the focus of this outlook thus far has been on the possibility of dealing away a star infielder, that would be a dramatic 180-degree turn from how this organization has operated. Monfort has been almost fatally optimistic about the players the Rockies have in house. In addition to last year’s 94-win proclamation, the Rockies functioned as buyers at this year’s trade deadline, dealing from an already thin farm to acquire Kevin Pillar and Mychal Givens. Monfort may yet hold out the belief that this core group can put together a legitimate World Series run.

Should that prove to be the case, it’s not clear just how the Rockies can piece together the requisite upgrades to supplement a flawed core. Even if the Rockies are able to clear some payroll space, the work needed is considerable.

Colorado starters ranked 20th in the Majors in both ERA (4.83) and FIP (4.88), and their bullpen was only spared from being the game’s worst because of a historically bad group in Philadelphia. Rox relievers logged a combined 6.77 ERA and 5.56 FIP this past season, and Oberg, their best reliever, is a question mark for the 2021 season after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery in September. (He did not pitch in 2020.) Yency Almonte and Daniel Bard were the only two Rockies relievers with 10-plus innings pitched and an ERA south of 5.00.

If there’s a silver lining for the Rockies in all of this, it’s that the market for relievers looks decidedly harsh for players. Brad Hand already went unclaimed on waivers at a rate of one year and $10MM, and we’ve seen several seemingly reasonable club options bought out. The Rox could have their share of affordable bullpen pieces to pursue — although they likely need to add several arms to pair with Bard, Givens, Oberg and perhaps Almonte to make this a serviceable unit. Waiting out the market and striking gold on some Bard-esque minor league pacts feels like a necessity.

In the rotation, the Rockies have several arms who have had success at various points, but only German Marquez has been particularly consistent. The trio of Gray, Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela have all had intermittent success but also endured brutal stretches. With little to no help on the horizon in the farm, the Rockies would likely need to add a veteran option if they plan to continue in win-now mode. It’s difficult to convince free agents to come pitch at Coors Field, though, which will impact their pursuits both in the ’pen and rotation. Then again, if money is as tight as it appears, they’d likely be shopping in the lower tiers of the market anyhow, or perhaps trying to acquire some non-tender candidates in buy-low trades prior to the tender deadline.

On the position-player side of the roster, the Rockies got no production whatsoever out of their catcher position in 2020, but that’s become par for the course as the club has steadfastly remained committed to light-hitting Tony Wolters. He’s a non-tender candidate again, though, and a solid defender with more ability at the dish (e.g. Jason Castro) might not cost that much more than Wolters’ projected arbitration price.

First base reps could be offered to any of Ryan McMahon (if he is tendered a contract), Josh Fuentes or prospect Colton Welker, and the free-agent market should have some affordable names (e.g. Carlos Santana, Mitch Moreland, C.J. Cron, Justin Smoak). Some outfield support behind David Dahl, who struggled in 2020 before undergoing shoulder surgery, would make sense as well; a Pillar reunion or a similar pursuit doesn’t seem far-fetched.

Frankly, however, the Rockies seem as though they’d be better served to take a step back. Marquez would instantly become one of the prizes of the trade market were he made available, and Story could return some young talent as well. Other Rox arms — Freeland and Givens among them — would hold ample appeal themselves. That has not been how this franchise operates, and while it’s commendable to see a team continue to push for competitive teams year-in and year-out, the process becomes more questionable when financial limitations prevent the front office from making any meaningful changes to the current group’s composition.

Perhaps the club will try to thread the needle of a long-term talent acquisition while still fielding a hopeful contender in 2021. If Bridich is able to find an Arenado trade, for instance, the Rox could reallocate some of those dollars to short-term deals for players to fill needs.

It’s still hard to envision this group contending with the World Champion Dodgers or upstart Padres in 2021, however. The Giants also continue to make strides, while the D-backs retain their own talented core in need of a rebound. The NL West looks like an increasingly tough division, and the Rockies’ avenues to assemble a competitive unit are limited if Monfort again opts not to spend this winter.

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