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Poll: The Reds’ Deadline Approach

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Take one look at the Reds’ record – 43-48 – and it’s difficult to envision them as a team in position to buy prior to the July 31 trade deadline. On the other hand, the Reds certainly aren’t out of the playoff race, trailing the NL Central-leading Cubs by 5 1/2 games and sitting 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Cincinnati is also in possession of the NL’s fifth-best run differential (plus-33) and a more-than-respectable 49-42 Pythagorean record.

Despite the team’s .473 winning percentage and last-place status in its division, is a sleeping giant about to awaken in Cincy? That seems to be the hope for president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall, who have suggested over the past week that the Reds are more inclined to buy than sell before the month is out. Whether they should is another matter. The Reds will have to leapfrog four teams and overcome a significant deficit to jump the Cubs if they’re going to win their division this year. It seems unrealistic. They obviously have a better chance to secure a wild-card berth, but that would be a daunting task with eight teams ahead of them for the NL’s fifth and final playoff position.

Fortunately for the Reds’ front office, the club’s schedule during the two weeks leading up to the deadline could provide more clarity on whether to buy, sell or stand pat. The Reds are amid a three-game set against the Cubs, whom they beat Monday, and then have series against four other teams with better records (the Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Pirates). Their slate’s similarly imposing after the deadline, with the Braves, Angels, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, Padres and Pirates set to serve as almost all of the Reds’ August opponents. Furthermore, the Marlins, Mariners and Mets are the only teams left on the Reds’ schedule through year’s end that aren’t legitimately in playoff contention at the moment.

The lack of tomato cans remaining on the Reds’ schedule may make selling over the next two weeks easier, as could the short-term pieces on their roster who could bring something back in trades. Outfielder Yasiel Puig – who started the year poorly but has been on a blistering pace since the beginning of June – as well as starters Tanner Roark and Anthony DeSclafani, second baseman Scooter Gennett, utilityman Derek Dietrich, shortstop Jose Iglesias, and relievers David Hernandez and Jared Hughes are all potential trade chips who will be free agents either after this season or the 2020 campaign. With the possible exception of Puig, no one in that group seems to stand much of receiving qualifying offer from the Reds when his team control expires. As such, it could behoove the Reds to move as many of them as possible right now for as much as teams are willing to pay.

On the flip side, no member of that bunch is a premium short-term piece (again, with the possible exception of Puig). Therefore, maybe you’re of the mind they should keep what they have, if not add to it, in lieu of selling vets for minimal returns and actually take a run at a playoff berth. For a franchise that’s staring at its sixth consecutive season without playoff baseball, perhaps there’s something to be said for making an against-the-odds effort to contend. The Reds tried to up their chances over the winter when they acquired Puig, Roark and others, though the win-loss results surely haven’t gone to the team’s liking thus far. Nevertheless, they don’t seem ready to say die as the 2019 deadline approaches.

(Poll link for app users)

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Starters By K/BB Ratio

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If you’re a pitcher, there aren’t many more important skills than racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The on-the-block starters who have been adept in both categories in 2019 figure to be among the players who garner the most interest from other teams leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. With help from the trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams assembled last week, here’s a look at the five qualified, potentially movable starters who have stood out more than the rest in the K/BB department this year…

Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks: K/BB ratio: 7.13

  • Even though he’s 35 years old and has a fastball that clocks in just below 90 mph, Greinke remains one of the majors’ preeminent starters. Greinke has fanned 8.02 batters per nine this year and walked a paltry 1.13, helping him to a 2.95 ERA/3.20 FIP across 128 frames. Plus, in a game where home runs are becoming more prevalent, Greinke has yielded under one per nine. If the Diamondbacks go into sell mode, Greinke is theoretically someone who’d draw plenty of interest. However, his contract could serve as a major roadblock. Not only is Greinke owed roughly $79MM through 2021, but his partial no-trade clause gives him the right to say no to 15 teams.

Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: K/BB ratio: 6.33

  • A glance at Boyd’s MLBTR page shows no shortage of teams in pursuit of the breakout 28-year-old, who has evolved into a K/BB master this season. Boyd has struck out 12 per nine and issued just 1.89 BB/9 at the same time, though a low groundball percentage (37.1) has played in a part in recent difficulties preventing home runs. Boyd has allowed 10 in seven starts dating back to the beginning of June, when he owned a 3.01 ERA. He has now posted a 3.95 mark in 114 innings this year, albeit with a 3.47 FIP/3.35 xFIP and the majors’ 11th-highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent). Considering Boyd’s 2019 production, his $2.6MM salary and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control, it’s no wonder teams are lining up for him.

Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: K/BB ratio: 5.14

  • Despite their awful 42-51 record, the Mets probably aren’t going to trade deGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young winner whom they signed to a four-year, $120.5MM extension entering the season. The 31-year-old hasn’t been the otherworldly force he was in 2018, but that’s far more of a compliment to his work a season ago than a knock on what he has done in 2019. To this point, deGrom has pitched to a sparkling 3.21 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 115 innings. Should the Mets at least consider trading him? Many of you think so, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s unlikely to pull the trigger.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 4.84

  • It’s true Bumgarner isn’t the ace he was in his halcyon days, but the 29-year-old’s K/9 (9.33) and BB/9 (1.93 BB/9) are befitting of a front-line arm. His 3.86 ERA and 3.80 FIP tell another story, though they’re certainly not subpar. The multi-time playoff hero has drawn tons of interest in advance of the deadline, and is likely the top rental starter in the rumor mill. For a while, Bumgarner has looked like a surefire trade candidate for the Giants, but a recent hot streak has put them just three games back in the National League’s wide-open wild-card race. Still, odds are that they’ll move Bumgarner for a solid return in the next two weeks.

Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners: K/BB ratio: 4.72

  • Leake’s inclusion on this list comes as a surprise in light of the other hurlers on it, and he’s definitely not part of it because of an impressive strikeout total. To the contrary, Leake has fanned a meager 6.63 batters per nine over 115 1/3 frames. On the other hand, his 1.4 BB/9 is outstanding. The same can’t be said for Leake’s 4.60 ERA/4.99 FIP or his 88.2 mph average fastball velocity, though. As a back-end starter who’s owed the balance of $36MM through 2020 (including $9MM from his prior team, the Cardinals, and a $5MM buyout in 2021), there isn’t much trade value here despite Leake’s placement in this top five.

2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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We last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class at the end of April.  No extensions have been signed since then, but otherwise there’s plenty of movement in the rankings.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power. To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.

1.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole maintains his spot atop this list, earning a second consecutive All-Star nod and cementing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game.  We haven’t seen a starting pitcher sign a seven-year deal since Stephen Strasburg inked his $175MM extension in May 2016.  The largest contract signed by a starter remains David Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal from December 2015.  The way free agency has been trending, it’s difficult to say whether Cole can reach the $200MM heights of Price, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke.  For more on Cole’s free agency, click here.

2.  Anthony Rendon.  In the midst of his best offensive season yet, Rendon was finally voted into the All-Star game by his peers, though he was unable to participate.  Rendon quietly keeps putting up six-win seasons as the Nationals’ third baseman, and he’s on the cusp of a huge contract.  Rendon’s agent Scott Boras and the Nationals discussed an extension this month, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, but Boras suggested the ball is in the club’s court.  A six-year deal could be a reasonable goal.

3.  Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner is adding another fine season to his resume, if a bit homer-prone.  It’s shaping up to be his first three-win season since 2016.  He’s one of baseball’s most likely trade candidates this month, though the Giants are complicating matters by playing well of late.  San Francisco is only three games out of the Wild Card, and if that holds up over the next two weeks, I can see the club holding onto him.  That’s relevant to this post in that the team would saddle him with a qualifying offer in that case, reducing his earning power.  In such a scenario, an extension with the Giants could begin to make sense.

4.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler’s spot on this list is precarious, as the 29-year-old righty recently landed on the IL for shoulder fatigue.  The timing of the injury gives scant time for Wheeler to re-establish his health in advance of the July 31st trade deadline, and also stings from the pitcher’s standpoint if it leads to a qualifying offer after the season.  Mike Puma of the New York Post suggests a qualifying offer from the Mets “seems unlikely” for Wheeler, but I think if he pitches reasonably well to close out the year, he’ll get one.  Though Wheeler’s ERA is up to 4.69, he’s demonstrated skills that typically lead to something closer to 4.00.

5.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez has the ability to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract after this season.  He owns a solid 129 wRC+ to date, though that’s short of the lofty standard he set in years prior.  As a DH who turns 32 in August, I don’t believe Martinez would do much better than $62.5MM on the open market, but his earning power still secures a spot on this list.

6.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman can opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract after the season, and there’s a decent chance the Yankees’ closer exercises that right.  The Yankees could also get out ahead of the situation by adding, say, an extra year and $20MM to the deal.  But Chapman turns 32 in February, and the Yankees may be content to let him leave even after another excellent season.  Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal from December 2017 could be a target for Chapman if he hits the open market.

7.  Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Ryu’s 1.97 ERA in 15 starts last year seemed impossible to beat, yet this year his ERA sits at 1.78 and he started the All-Star Game for the NL.  The 32-year-old lefty has walked a mere 2.5% of batters faced this year, best in baseball.  Though Ryu has not pitched 150 innings in a season since 2014, his injuries have not involved his arm or shoulder following his September 2015 elbow debridement procedure.  If Rich Hill can get three years and $48MM heading into his age-37 campaign, it stands to reason that Ryu can get something similar heading into his age-33 season, particularly since he’s ineligible for another qualifying offer.

8.  Marcell Ozuna.  Ozuna is having a respectable bounceback season for the Cardinals, with a 118 wRC+ in 326 plate appearances.  However, he’s a bat-first left fielder and is currently on the IL with multiple finger fractures.  Ozuna will be just 29 in November, but he won’t be hitting the same market that saw Justin Upton snag a five-year, $106MM extension in November 2017.  Ozuna also may come with a qualifying offer attached, and seems like a player who could face a difficult free agency.

9.  Jake Odorizzi.  A new entrant to this list, Odorizzi made his first All-Star team this year and owns a 3.06 ERA through 94 innings.  30 in March, he should be in line for a healthy contract with a strong second half.  However, he may be saddled by a qualifying offer and could fail to reach the new standard of four years and $68MM set by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas.

10.  Yasmani Grandal.  Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM during the offseason before signing a one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee.  He’s matching last year’s excellent offense thus far and won’t have to contend with a qualifying offer this time, and should come out ahead on the gamble.

Honorable mentions: Stephen Strasburg (can opt of remaining four years and $100MM, Kenley Jansen (can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM), Josh Donaldson, Yasiel Puig, Didi Gregorius, Nicholas Castellanos, Will Smith, Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, Mike Moustakas

The Rising Athletics And The Starting Pitching Market

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One month ago today, the Athletics sat a dozen games off the pace in the AL West with a dead-even 36-36 record. The Oakland org was still a Wild Card contender but seemed all but buried in the division. That was a mild disappointment for a 2018 playoff team but hardly all that surprising given that the A’s were chasing a powerhouse Astros club.

To say that the fortunes have swung in the interim would be to put it lightly. The streaking A’s have dropped just five of their past 22 games. After blitzing past the Rangers in the standings, they’re laying siege to Houston. With the Astros encountering some choppy waters, particularly in the rotation, the lead has dwindled to a decidedly less-than-insurmountable 5.5 games.

Let’s be honest here: the Houston club still seems the prohibitive favorite. With rather deep pockets, some immense talent just reaching or knocking on the door of the majors, and one of the game’s best core groups at the MLB level, the ’Stros are a legitimate powerhouse. And the padding certainly still factors in; even if all else was equal, the existing 5.5-game lead represents a big head start.

Still, the increasing threat from the A’s creates an interesting dynamic in the division that will have a spillover effect onto the rest of the trade market. These clubs clash directly 11 more times this season, affording the ever-scrappy Oakland org plenty of opportunities to make up ground directly — or for their rivals to kick them back down the ladder. There’s enough of a threat here that the Astros can’t just presume they’ll cruise to a division win. At the very least, they’ll need to account for the rest of the regular season in making deadline acquisitions, rather than simply considering how to structure their roster for an easily assumed postseason run. (That’s a luxury that few teams can afford — only the Dodgers, this year — but it once seemed within reach for Houston.)

What’s most interesting, perhaps, is the fact that these two AL West rivals are set to compete (at least indirectly) in the trade market. The chief need in both cases is pitching, particularly starting pitching, which is also largely true of the other major American League competitors. Teams with controllable rotation pieces — many of whom feature on our recent ranking of the top sixty trade deadline candidates — are no doubt taking uniform measurements for the top prospects currently populating these contenders’ farm systems.

We’ll pause here to acknowledge the aforementioned, division-rival Rangers. While our focus in this post is on the two current division leaders, the Texas club still has an interesting role to play. If they fade a bit further back, the Rangers could have some of the most intriguing starters on offer, with veterans Mike Minor and Lance Lynn both throwing quite well on affordable contracts. If they move back into the picture, at least for the Wild Card, they’d surely be looking to add to their staff. It’s also possible they’ll simply hold. The Athletics’ run will likely weigh to some extent on the Rangers’ decisionmaking; with three game now separating the teams, it makes a surprising Texas postseason appearance feel all the less likely.

To be fair, the A’s and ’Stros haven’t exactly received problematic rotation work to this point. They’ve each had top-ten overall units by measure of ERA. Unfortunately, that doesn’t tell the whole story of where these clubs stand in terms of starting pitching.

As GM Jeff Luhnow’s latest comments reflect, the Astros have an immediate need for a rotation plug, a broader need for a high-level starter or two down the stretch, and a long-term need to account for multiple rotation spots. Brad Peacock’s setback, coupled with some struggles and health issues from young MLB pitchers and top prospects, have left the team with quite a few questions behind aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander and steady veteran Wade Miley. While the club has a few notable position players working back from injury, it’s far from clear that it’ll find solutions to its rotation needs from within.

Over in Oakland, rather improbably, the A’s have received sub-4.00 output from each of Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, and Chris Bassitt over 15+ start samples. Each of those pitchers has vastly outperformed his peripherals; they hover in the 5.00 range by measure of ERA estimators such as xFIP and SIERA. All of those things are true also of Daniel Mengden, albeit over just 33 1/3 frames and six starts. While the Oakland staff has collectively limited the long balls plaguing most of the rest of the league, it’s reasonable to anticipate regression — perhaps in no small amount.

The A’s just added Homer Bailey, who’ll help shore up the depth. But he’s no replacement for Frankie Montas, the breakout righty who’ll be able to return later this year from a PED suspension but won’t be eligible for the postseason. While the Oakland org has long hoped for late-season reinforcements from the injured list, it remains to be seen what they’ll get. Jesus Luzardo is back on the shelf and seems increasingly unlikely to make his MLB debut this season. A.J. Puk is still building up length and working out the kinks. And Sean Manaea just began his own rehab assignment. Whether and when those talented southpaws will arrive, and what they’ll be capable of contributing, won’t really be known before the trade deadline.

This all sets the stage for something of a showdown between the teams’ respective top baseball ops decisionmakers: Jeff Luhnow of the Astros and Billy Beane of the Athletics. Both have swung notable deadline deals for starters in the recent past. The Houston club’s dramatic acquisition of Verlander will have a prominent place on Luhnow’s GM gravestone. But that was nothing compared to Beane’s all-out 2014 effort, in which he pulled off a Fourth of July double-dip and followed that up with a stunningly clever (some would say too clever) strike for Jon Lester.

Luhnow and Beane have each been here before. They have some excellent trade chips to work with, several of which could instead be utilized as immediate (and long-term) pieces at the MLB level. Will the Astros seriously consider moving Kyle Tucker? What of top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley, a potential top-shelf ace who has run into trouble this season. Could they consider parting with the flamethrowing Josh James, currently working as a reliever, or can Luhnow convince a rival to accept a package of second-tier prospect talent to make the necessary rotation upgrades? On the A’s side, there are endless possibilities as well. Much of the team’s best upper-level talent is presently unavailable due to injuries or suspensions, but that doesn’t mean those players wouldn’t have value to other organizations. Though the A’s probably won’t want to go too wild in pursuit of rental talent, since the division remains a tall order, perhaps they’ll also see the deadline as an opportunity to add pieces for the future.

It’s equally possible to imagine either organization taking a fairly measured approach to this deadline. Luhnow has in the past been quite judicious in parting with top prospects that he sees as part of the long-term vision. And the A’s might not be willing to sell low on their own most interesting trade pieces, preferring to keep gathering affordable and decent depth pitching while waiting and hoping for a future with a rotation full of cost-controlled aces. But the potential for fireworks is certainly there, and the A’s mid-summer charge could just light the fuse.

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA

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Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332

  • Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350

  • Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343

  • The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.

Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353

  • There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337

  • Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).

Top 60 Trade Candidates At The All-Star Break

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This is the first update to our annual ranking of top trade candidates in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. You can check out the original list (and review the methodology) here. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.

It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Without further ado:

1-2. Will Smith, RP & Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants (Last Ranked: 1, 2): Yeah, the Giants are still within shouting distance of Wild Card position — but they still have the NL’s third-worst record. There are a host of teams ahead of them that look better on paper and have greater motivation to keep pressing to contend. The San Francisco club remains well-positioned to take advantage of holding arguably the two best rental chips on the market (along with other trade assets).

3. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets (LR: 47): With the Mets collapsing since our last ranking, Wheeler flies up the board. We’ll respect the results of our recent survey and list MadBum first, but there are probably some teams that will be more interested in the younger, cheaper, harder-throwing New York hurler. By most standards, Wheeler looks much the same as he did in his eye-opening 2018 campaign. he has allowed a few more long balls and a greater batting average on balls in play while carrying a lower strand rate, which helps explain why his ERA has ballooned from 3.31 to 4.69. He has allowed more hard contact, but Wheeler’s velocity and strikeout rates have headed northward.

4-5. Ken Giles, RP & Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays (LR: INJ, 3): Both Jays hurlers are controlled through the 2020 season, and both are throwing well. In fact, “well” is an understatement for Giles, who has pitched to a sensational 1.45 ERA with better than 15 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Stroman’s numbers aren’t quite so gaudy, but the ground-ball machine is on pace for his third 200-inning season in the past four years while maintaining an ERA in the low 3.00s. Smith and Bumgarner might be the top starter/reliever rental combo on the market, but this duo is the best starter/reliever pair with control beyond the current season.

6. Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers (LR: 8): We noted in our first ranking that the 27-year-old could move up the ladder if he kept up a hot streak, and he has done just that. He sprints into the rental-bat lead after a .354/.420/.532 run over his past twenty games. The return here probably won’t be that strong — even a red-hot J.D. Martinez netted the Tigers a lackluster return as a rental two summers ago — but Castellanos is among the game’s safest bets to be traded.

7-8. Sam Dyson (Giants) & Shane Greene (Tigers), RP (LR: 11, 12): We had this pair of quality relievers stashed a bit further down the list the last time around, owing to the fact that neither absolutely must be traded with another season of arbitration eligibility remaining. But that reasoning increasingly feels strained given the dearth of worthwhile rental relievers on the market this year. The quietly excellent Dyson doesn’t have quite the shiny ERA or recent save numbers of Greene, but he’s arguably as good or better. Both hurlers profile as groundball-heavy setup men for most contenders.

9. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers (LR: 9): There’s no rush or need for Detroit to move Boyd, who is controlled all the way through 2022, but interest in him is strong. Boyd’s strikeout rate has exploded in 2019, as he’s averaging 12 strikeouts against just 1.7 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s been plagued by the long ball of late — as has much of the league despite commissioner Rob Manfred’s claim of no intentional alterations to the ball — but Boyd is the best long-term arm that is likely to be available this month. We admittedly may use the term “controllable” too aggressively for players like Stroman, Giles and others signed for only one more season; Boyd is the epitome of a “controllable” trade asset, though.

10-11. Tony Watson (Giants) & Jake Diekman (Royals), RP (LR: 6, 7): Both of these pending-free-agent lefty specialists were tagged in their most recent outings, but teams will take broader views of their merits. They’re among the likeliest players to be dealt in the league.

12. Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees (LR: NR): Every day the Yanks go without another outfielder coming down with yet another injury seems one day closer to the departure of Frazier. It’s easy to imagine Frazier going to a non-contender, but there could also be some interesting scenarios where he ends up on a club that still has hopes of reaching the postseason this year.

13-15. Todd Frazier, 3B, Mets; Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants; Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays (LR: NR, 15, 4): As noted with regard to Wheeler, the free-falling Mets are likely to jettison any and all pricey vets on expiring deals. The resurgent Frazier, hitting .256/.340/.443 as of this writing, falls directly into that category, as he’s earning $9MM this season before a return to the open market. Over in San Francisco, the Kung Fu Panda has continued to rake since our last check-in on the game’s top trade chips. That’s less true of Smoak, who has been in a deep funk in recent weeks and hasn’t played up to expectations on the season as a whole. If you’re looking at the last few seasons on the whole, though, Smoak is easily the best bat of this trio of corner-infield rentals.

16. Mike Leake, SP, Mariners (LR: 22): Since last publishing this list, Leake has made two strong starts and two awful ones — highlighted (err… lowlighted?) by a seven-run drubbing at the hands of the Orioles. However, Leake has a superlative 21-to-1 K/BB ratio over 26 innings in that same stretch of time. He’s sitting on a 4.32 ERA and, in an era proliferated by five-inning starts, he’s averaging 6 1/3 frames per outing. Leake won’t front your rotation, but if you need durable innings and ground-balls to round out the starting five, he’s a solid option. The Cardinals are already paying part of his salary, and the Mariners would surely kick in some cash to get a deal finalized for Leake, who’s signed through 2020.

17-18. Mychal Givens, Orioles & Roenis Elias, Mariners, RP (LR: 17, NR): Call it a hunch, but the O’s seem well-positioned to move on Givens. He’s in his first year of arbitration with two more to go, so there’s no rush. And outwardly, the results make this an awkward time, as he has surrendered a home run-driven 4.76 ERA. But Givens has also racked up 20 strikeouts in his last 11 1/3 innings. He fits any budget and seems an obvious candidate to function in late innings for a contender. With the Orioles as far from contention as possible, I’m betting they’ll find a deal for their most talented relief pitcher. As for Elias, we examined him at length earlier. In short, he’s a solid, cheap reliever ($910K) controlled for two more seasons who currently plays on a rebuilding team that is run by Jerry Dipoto. Need we say more?

19. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres (LR: 5): With the Pads continuing to put out word that they’re chasing starting pitching, it’s feeling less and less likely that they’ll seriously pursue deals involving Yates. There’ll be a strong desire to keep him, both for this year and next, so long as the club is in the hunt for a Wild Card bid. But there’ll still be a pull towards a deal, as interest would be huge.

20. Corey Dickerson, OF, Pirates: This is by no means a declaration that we think the Pirates will be sellers. To the contrary, they’re very much in the NL Central and Wild Card races at the moment. But the emergence of Bryan Reynolds simply gives Pittsburgh too many outfielders. It’s the quintessential “good problem to have.” The team’s reported preference is to move Dickerson, a pending free agent making $8.5MM, rather than one of its other outfielders. Doing so could fetch them some needed bullpen help or a back-of-the-rotation arm to help solidify the pitching staff. The Buccos could also just accept a nominal prospect return and then use the saved funds to help take on a pitcher.

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Max Muncy: Not A Fluke

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Max Muncy rose from obscurity last year to become one of the majors’ most improbable success stories. The Athletics jettisoned Muncy in April 2017, a half-decade after they used a fifth-round draft pick on him. The Dodgers then scooped up Muncy on a minor league contract that has turned into one of the greatest low-risk deals in recent memory.

Muncy didn’t take a single at-bat with the Dodgers in his first year with the franchise, instead thriving for the entire season at the Triple-A level, but he broke out as a premier major leaguer in 2018. Muncy slashed a remarkable .263/.391/.582 (162 wRC+) with 35 home runs in just 481 plate appearances, all while seeing significant action at first and third base. The all-around package was worth an astounding 5.2 fWAR – the same amount Braves superstar Freddie Freeman totaled in 226 more trips to the plate.

Muncy was a good-not-great A’s prospect who wasn’t a remotely successful big leaguer prior to last season. As such, questions abounded over what he’d do for an encore this season after his eye-opening breakout in 2018. Three-plus months into the season, Muncy hasn’t quite been the force he was a year ago, but that’s a compliment to what he accomplished then – not an indictment on his current production. Having just earned the first All-Star nod of his career, Muncy is emphatically showing he’s not a fluke.

The 28-year-old has already accounted for 3.0 fWAR, good for a 20th-place tie among position players, through 359 trips to the plate. Once again, his offensive output has been fantastic, as the lefty’s slashing .265/.365/.529 (134 wRC+) with 22 homers. Muncy’s power has dropped in comparison to last year – his ISO has fallen from .319 to .265, and his launch angle has sunk from 17.8 degrees to 12.6 – though he has still been one of the game’s most imposing threats at the plate. Statcast backs up Muncy’s bottom-line production, evidenced in part by a .379 expected weighted on-base average that actually outdoes his .377 wOBA. Muncy’s xwOBA ranks in the league’s 90th percentile, while his hard-hit percentage (61st), expected batting average (73rd) and expected slugging percentage (83rd) are also comfortably above average.

Muncy, however, hasn’t achieved his resounding success the same way he did last year. A more aggressive approach (his swing rate’s up 5 percent since 2018) has helped lead to more swings and misses and fewer walks, yet Muncy is making more contact and striking out less. Unlike last season, Muncy’s doing more of his damage against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Once again, though, he has had little trouble with either, as shown by his 143 wRC+ versus southpaws and a 131 mark against righties.

For the second straight year, Muncy’s proving capable of helping his loaded team in multiple ways. The Dodgers, unafraid to heavily deploy players at two or more positions, have given Muncy between 23 and 46 appearances at first, second and third this year. He has risen to the challenge by offering plus defense at each position, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Adding up his work at all three spots, Muncy has accounted for 10 DRS and a 2.4 UZR.

With Muncy’s help last year, the Dodgers won their sixth straight NL West crown and their second consecutive pennant. With Muncy’s help this year, they’re shoo-ins to take home their seventh division championship in a row. More importantly, he may aid in the club’s first World Series title since 1988. Not bad for a player who’s only two years removed from joining the Dodgers off the scrapheap.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Breakout Reliever Emerges For Rays

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Rays reliever Emilio Pagan was not the headliner in a three-team offseason trade featuring Tampa Bay, Oakland and Texas. That honor went to infielder Jurickson Profar, whom the Athletics acquired from the Rangers in the swap. However, between Pagan and Profar – the two major leaguers involved in the deal – it’s the former who has been the more valuable player so far in 2019.

Although Pagan just debuted in the majors in 2017, he’s already something of a journeyman. Pagan spent his rookie season as a useful piece of the Mariners’ bullpen before going to the Athletics in a trade prior to the 2018 campaign. While Pagan wasn’t that effective in his lone year with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the Rays’ go-to relievers since they recalled him from the minors in mid-April.

Pagan, a 28-year-old right-hander, has recorded a 1.75 ERA with 11.75 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 36 frames, making him one of the majors’ premier relievers in the run prevention and K/BB categories. Pagan also ranks 11th among all pitchers in weighted on-base average against (.221) and an even better third in xwOBA (.220), trailing only elite relievers Josh Hader and Kirby Yates in the latter department.

Pagan’s transformation into a great reliever, at least this year, has come with a change in pitch mix. He has always leaned on two offerings – a four-seam fastball and a slider – but the usage of each has changed significantly since last year. Pagan’s throwing his four-seamer 55.5 percent of the time, down from 64.5 in 2018, and has upped his slider usage from 29.4 percent to 40.6 in the same span. Both pitches have produced excellent results to this point, especially his fastball. Hitters have mustered an awful .200 wOBA/.156 xwOBA against it, thanks in part to an increase in velocity. The pitch averaged 93.8 mph in 2018, but it has shot to 95.4 this season. Unsurprisingly, the whiff percentage on Pagan’s four-seamer has risen substantially since 2018, having gone from 25.8 to 34.9 percent.

As you’d expect, with his strikeout rate and velocity at an all-time high, Pagan has fooled more hitters this year. Pagan’s chase rate is almost 4 percent better than his career mark, hitters have made 4-plus percent less contact against him than usual, and his swinging-strike rate is roughly 2.5 percent superior to his lifetime mean. While the average reliever has drawn swings and misses at an 11.8 percent clip this season, Pagan’s at 17.1 – good for ninth in the majors.

When batters have made contact against Pagan this season, it hasn’t been as easy to elevate the ball. At a piddly 24.9 percent, Pagan posted the majors’ last-ranked groundball rate among relievers from 2017-18. That number has elevated to an even 40.0 since he joined the Rays. With help from his uptick in grounders, home runs have become rarer against Pagan, who rated last among relievers in HRs per nine (1.60) over his first two seasons. He’s now surrendering just one per nine, which checks in well south of the league average (1.34).

It’s true Pagan is benefiting from a .224 batting average on balls in play and a 90.2 percent strand rate, two figures that could be difficult to sustain. But he’s handling both same-handed and lefty hitters, and Statcast is quite bullish on his work. At this point, Pagan looks like one of the majors’ most underrated additions of last winter and someone who could help pitch the playoff-contending Rays to the postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Roenis Elias

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The trade market should pick up steam in earnest over the next week to 10 days, now that the All-Star break is behind us. Teams will play in pivotal series against divisional foes — some of which will dictate whether fringe contenders add pieces or wave a metaphorical white flag and begrudgingly sell off some veteran assets in exchange for youthful talent. Many of the names on the market are well known by now, as are others who could become available should their currently borderline teams ultimately sell. The Mariners are already known sellers, but there’s been little focus on lefty Roenis Elias, who has is in the midst of a second consecutive quality season.

Roenis Elias | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

None of what’s written here will be a means of suggesting that Elias is a premium trade chip, but he’s certainly a more appealing trade piece than one would think given the lack of attention he’s drawn. The Cuban-born southpaw will turn 31 the day after the deadline, so he’s not the type of young, controllable asset after which so many clubs pine. However, he is controllable for another two seasons, and over the past two years, Elias has been a perfectly serviceable relief option for Seattle skipper Scott Servais.

In his past 91 2/3 innings, Elias has turned in a 3.24 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9 and a 34.7 percent ground-ball rate. Elias throws hard for a lefty, averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball dating back to last season. He’s had some curious struggles against lefties in 2019 (some, but not all of which can be attributed to a .364 BABIP), but Elias has also held right-handed hitters to an awful .206/.272/.339 batting line through 257 plate appearances since the 2018 season opened.

If spin rate is your cup of tea, then Elias is all the more appealing. His fastball spin is in the 91st percentile among big league hurlers, per Statcast, while his curveball falls into a less-impressive but still-solid 76th percentile. The lefty has induced swinging strikes at a 10.6 percent clip over the past two seasons, including an 11.9 percent rate in 2019 that has been accompanied by an uptick in strikeout rate (from 6.0 K/9 in ’18 to 9.3 in ’19). Elias has even emerged as a late-inning option for Servais, locking down 11 saves. That said, he’s also no stranger to multi-inning relief outings.

The Nationals, Twins, Rays, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers and Red Sox (although Boston has already acquired Elias from the Mariners once, only to trade him back) are among the teams in the market for a bullpen arm or two. For a team with payroll concerns, Elias’ $910K salary is small enough that he can be squeezed into virtually any budget. It’s also affordable enough that he can be penciled onto a 2020 roster without forecasting too steep a raise in arbitration.

Elias isn’t an elite reliever, but he’s intriguing as a solid, perhaps too-seldom-discussed arm on a team that has been openly broadcasting its willingness to sell veteran assets since the beginning of the offseason. His eminently affordable salary makes him a fit for any team’s budget, and given the large number of clubs eyeing bullpen help, there should be a market for his services. He might not be any team’s “Plan A,” but Elias should nonetheless have a decent chance of changing hands over the next three weeks.

The Constant Gardner

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Raise your hand if you thought Brett Gardner would lead Yankees outfielders in fWAR at the All-Star break. Weeks-long, injury-forced absences to starting outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks helped Gardner ascend to the top of the heap in the season’s first three-plus months, but the long-productive 35-year-old has been legitimately good yet again. With 2.1 fWAR through 323 plate appearances, Gardner is tied for 46th among all qualified position players, having notched the same total as Juan Soto, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson and others. He’s also continuing to make a case as one of the most valuable Yankees ever in the eyes of that metric, which places him 24th among the storied franchise’s all-time position players.

Even though Gardner is enjoying his latest quality season, there is a chance it’ll be the last in pinstripes for the soon-to-be free agent and career-long Yankee. The club brought Gardner back last offseason for $7.5MM after declining its $12.5MM option over him. At that point, Gardner didn’t look as if he’d be in line for his typical amount of playing time. The team had Judge, Stanton and Hicks, after all, and while they (especially Stanton) have each sat out significant time this year, all three will reprise starting roles next season. The club could also have Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Andujar (yet another 2019 injury case), Clint Frazier (if he’s still with the organization by then) and an out-of-options Mike Tauchman further clouding the outfield and/or DH mix.

Of course, if you’re Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, there are more important matters at hand than worrying about 2020. He can map out Gardner’s future then. As of now, Cashman’s choice to retain Gardner last winter has proven to be a shrewd decision for a team that has jumped out to the American League’s leading record (57-31).

A roughly league-average offensive player since his career started in 2008, Gardner has posted a 109 wRC+ so far this year. If the season ended now, it would go down as the fourth-best figure of his career. Gardner’s more conventional output – his triple-slash line – checks in at .246/.328/.470. While Gardner has usually derived a sizable portion of his offensive value from his ability to get on base, having done so at a .343 lifetime clip, he’s one of countless major leaguers whose uptick in power has ruled the day in 2019.

Gardner has already piled up 15 home runs, six fewer than the high-water mark of 21 he hit in 2017, with a .225 ISO that comes in 90 points above his career mean. Unlike many other hitters, though, Gardner hasn’t needed to sell out for power by upping his strikeouts. In fact, Gardner has gone down on strikes a meager 15.5 percent of the time – his lowest since 2009 – and is tied with Mike Trout for the game’s eighth-ranked swing-and-miss rate (5.3 percent). Plus, having walked in better than 10 percent of trips to the plate, Gardner’s 0.66 BB/K ratio almost doubles the league average (0.37).

Gardner’s sturdy output this year has come in spite of a .248 batting average on balls in play, down 59 points compared to his .307 lifetime BABIP. Still one of the majors’ fastest runners, Gardner looks like a good bet on paper to see his BABIP skyrocket. That’s not a lock, though, if Gardner’s new approach holds up. He’s hitting more fly balls and fewer ground balls/line drives than usual. That’s not conducive to a high BABIP, and it’s worth noting that hitting the ball out of the park doesn’t count toward the stat.

The question is whether Gardner’s newfound power is here to stay. The fact that he’s pulling the ball at a career-high rate and going opposite field at a personal-low percentage bodes well in that regard. Furthermore, FanGraphs indicates Gardner’s hard-hit rate is his highest since 2012. It also may help that the left-handed Gardner plays his home games at Yankee Stadium, but the venue surprisingly has been a difficult one for lefties to amass HRs at this season, according to Baseball Prospectus. For his part, Gardner has been better on the road (114 wRC+) than at home (102) this year, though he has totaled eight of his homers in the Bronx. Historically, Gardner has offered league-average or better numbers both home and away.

Sticking with Gardner’s history, he has typically been usable, albeit unspectacular, versus same-handed pitchers (88 wRC+). But they’ve stifled Gardner this season, having limited him to a woeful .206/.260/.324 (53 wRC+) in 73 PA. Moreover, Gardner has been far from great in general in the estimation of Statcast, which puts his expected weighted on-base average (.314) significantly below his real wOBA (.339). It also indicates his expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected batting average are all worse than mediocre.

Elsewhere, however, Gardner remains a defensive and base running stalwart in spite of his advanced age. In almost 700 innings divided between left and center, he has accounted for 4 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. And while Gardner’s no longer the 40-steal threat he once was, the speedster has swiped eight of 10 bags this year and rated as one of FanGraphs’ top base runners.

The overall package has almost always been effective for Gardner, who has quietly been one of the Yankees’ greatest draft picks in recent memory after going in the third round in 2005. Fourteen years later, Gardner remains a legitimate major league regular and someone who could help the franchise to the second World Series title of his career this fall. Whether Gardner will stay with the lone organization he has ever known once its season ends will be one of the Yankees’ main questions when the offseason rolls around.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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