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Remaining Needs: AL East

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With the new year upon us, MLBTR is going through all 30 teams’ remaining needs by division.  We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, AL Central, NL Central, and NL West. That leaves the American League East …

Baltimore Orioles [Offseason Outlook]

Outside of dealing away Dylan Bundy, it has been a quiet winter for sophomore GM Mike Elias. There just isn’t much pressing roster-building work to be done for a club that was badly in need of a full rebuild when Elias took the helm.

More than anything, the O’s will spend the next few weeks exploring further trade possibilities. Reliever Mychal Givens and slugger Trey Mancini are obvious candidates to be dealt. Hanser Alberto and a few others could also conceivably be of interest elsewhere.

Other than filling in for any further departures, the O’s still need to add a few pieces — both to keep some standard of MLB capabilities and to seek upside that might be turned into trade capital. The departure of Jonathan Villar leaves an opening at shortstop that hasn’t yet been filled. (Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Richie Martin, ought to get some dearly missed Triple-A seasoning.) The O’s could easily find space for a buy-low option at third base or the corner outfield as well. Adding Kohl Stewart and a pair of Rule 5 hurlers helps the pitching depth picture, but there’s still plenty of room to add arms onto the roster.

Boston Red Sox [Offseason Outlook]

Incoming chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was tasked with getting the Sox beneath the luxury line but staying competitive. He has taken several steps towards that goal by buying low on Martin Perez and Jose Peraza. Standing alone, however, those deals only add salary to the MLB roster.

It’d be a big surprise at this point if the Boston organization doesn’t swing a significant trade or two over the next several weeks. David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr. seem likeliest to be dealt, though Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and others probably can’t be ruled out entirely.

Back-filling for any departures will be a top priority. No matter who leaves, Bloom will be hunting for value in the bullpen, eyeing up rotation depth, and exploring bench improvements. The Sox could still stand to add another piece to the first base mix (perhaps a left-handed hitter to pair with Michael Chavis) and are hurting for catching depth. Just how much flexibility Bloom will have to pursue new adds will depend upon how much salary he sheds via trade.

New York Yankees [Offseason Outlook]

The one massive priority of the offseason was achieved when Gerrit Cole went rooting around his parents’ basement to dig up the sign he brought to Yankee Stadium as a kid. (“Mom! Where’s my sign?!?!”) Retaining Brett Gardner and adding Erik Kratz for depth also checked boxes.

Any follow-ups to the Cole signing will surely feel like lesser events. But they could yet make a big impact. The Yanks don’t really need anything, but have dabbled with some elite relievers and may have a major strike up their sleeve. There’s some amount of roster pressure involving young power hitters Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier, but they are assets the Yanks will surely put to use on the field or via trade. Moving J.A. Happ would help with payroll management.

Tampa Bay Rays [Offseason Outlook]

The Rays have not only exemplified, but driven baseball’s de-formalization of roles. Scanning their present roster really drives this fact home. The team is laden with multi-functional players and situational possibilities. This applies to both pitchers and hitters.

In theory, the Rays could add just about any player they like and make it work. Value is paramount. Those considerations explain the team’s pursuit of left-handed-hitting center fielder Shogo Akiyama despite the presence of Kevin Kiermaier, not to mention the addition of countrymate Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, who joins a roster with quite a few other quality lefty bats.

Without any glaring need, per se, the Rays can perhaps be expected to keep doing what they do. We’ve see this organization hammer out somewhat complicated trades involving under-the-radar players time and time again. But we’ve also seen targeted gambles, such as last winter’s wise inking of Charlie Morton. With the powerhouse Yankees cresting, the Rays will need to press hard — and consider going outside of their comfort zone — to add a finishing piece or two to this roster. Given the versatility on hand, just about any high-value opportunity seems plausible.

Toronto Blue Jays [Offseason Outlook]

Public pressure can’t be the sole explanation for the Jays’ big strike for Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it surely played a role. Now that Ryu, Tanner Roark, and others have been installed in a revamped rotation, the front office can breathe a bit easier.

That’s a far sight from declaring this roster a potential winner. But it does seem to have a fair bit of upside in the form of young, elite talent and post-hype bounceback candidates. The position-player unit is littered with names that populated top prospect lists. It’s an ultra high-variance mix, which seems generally appropriate for this stage of the organization’s rebuild.

It’s certainly arguable the Toronto org ought to grab an open-market option or two in favor of some of its preexisting players. The corner outfield seems particularly susceptible of improvement, though the Jays would rather not fully block some of the guys they’ve picked up in recent years. The other interesting area is the bullpen, which is loaded up with uncertainty … and which includes one of the top trade candidates on the market. It’d obviously hurt the team’s 2020 outlook to move Ken Giles, but it’s awfully tough to bypass a return — especially with what appears to be a favorable market situation — for a guy who’ll reach free agency at season’s end.

Will Harris: Overlooked Free Agent?

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For the most part, the upper end of the free-agent relief market emptied out quickly this offseason. Aroldis Chapman stuck with the Yankees, Will Smith and Chris Martin signed with the Braves, Drew Pomeranz reunited with the Padres, and Dellin Betances switched from the Yanks to the crosstown rival Mets. Now, going by the contract predictions MLBTR made at the beginning of the offseason, former Astros right-hander Will Harris looks like the No. 1 reliever left on a board that also includes Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek and Craig Stammen near the top of a shrinking class. We called for a two-year, $18MM payday for Harris, and although that still seems reasonable, he hasn’t generated much public attention this winter.

Almost two months since free agency opened, just one team – Minnesota – has come up as a rumored suitor for Harris. There could be unreported clubs chasing Harris, though it’s surprising that there hasn’t been more speculation centering on the 35-year-old. After all, since his 2013 breakout with the Diamondbacks, not many relievers have been more productive. Going back to then, Harris has pitched to a 2.59 ERA/2.97 FIP with 9.58 K/9, 2.28 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 378 2/3 innings.

There was no let-up last season for Harris, who posted a career-best 1.50 ERA in 60 frames. Judging relievers by ERA is dangerous, granted, and Harris was fortunate to prevent runs at such a stingy rate. But the rest of his numbers were also quite impressive, as he managed a 3.15 FIP/3.04 xFIP/3.18 SIERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate.

Altough Harris didn’t blow anyone away with his cutter-curve mix, both pitches were among the best of their kind, according to FanGraphs. Excellent spin rates had something to do with it. Harris ranked in the game’s 96th percentile in fastball spin and in its 86th percentile with the curve, per Statcast. Hitters had immense difficulty squaring up either offering, as shown by the lack of damaging contact Harris surrendered. He finished in the majors’ 84th percentile in hard-hit rate and in the 89th percentile in expected weighted on-base average against.

Once the playoffs rolled around, Harris’ lights-out performance continued. It’s true the Nationals did get the better of Harris in their Game 6 and 7 World Series wins over Houston, which wasn’t the way he wanted to go out last season. Still, Harris concluded the postseason with 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball, striking out 11 and issuing just one walk along the way.

Harris undoubtedly made a strong case for a quality payday throughout the year, but with 2019 about to turn to 2020, he remains on the market. Youth isn’t on Harris’ side, of course, and he doesn’t carry much experience as a closer. Those factors could be scaring off some teams, but as a hurler who has averaged 50-plus innings of terrific results for the past seven seasons, he has established himself as a high-end setup man. Perhaps Harris will be paid accordingly when the new year arrives.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Dominic Smith

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Plenty went wrong for the Mets in 2019, their third straight season without a playoff berth, but the oft-maligned franchise nonetheless turned in a fairly respectable campaign. They got off the mat after an awful start to win 86 games, right-hander Jacob deGrom won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award, and slugging first baseman Pete Alonso burst on the scene to mash 53 home runs en route to NL Rookie of the Year honors. Aside from Alonso, there were other legitimately encouraging developments among the Mets’ position player group, including the performance of fellow first baseman Dominic Smith.

It appeared entering the season that Smith was teetering on the brink of irrelevance, even though he wasn’t far removed from his days as a touted prospect. The 11th overall pick of the Mets in 2013, Smith debuted in the majors in 2017 as one of the game’s 100 best farmhands, but he fell way short of the hype at the outset of his career.

From 2017-18, a 332-plate appearance span, the lefty-swinging Smith put up a dismal .210/.259/.406 batting line. Smith’s minus-1.0 fWAR in that time frame ranked dead last among all 79 Mets who racked up at-bats, and he also struggled badly at the Triple-A level during the latter of the two seasons. As a result, fans, media and maybe even the organization were down on Smith, though he came back in 2019 to produce far better results than the average major league hitter.

Alonso’s presence and injuries to Smith helped keep him from playing a full season, but he still impressed during an 89-game, 197-PA sample. Playing his age-24 season, Smith batted .282/.355/.525 (133 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a lofty .243 ISO. Plus, after combining for a 28.4 percent strikeout rate with a 5.4 percent walk rate during the prior two years, he made serious strides in those departments. Smith went down on strikes at a 22.3 percent clip and drew free passes 9.6 percent of the time. He also chased fewer pitches outside the zone, made more contact and was equally effective against southpaws (132 wRC+) and righties (133 wRC+), though his success versus same-handed pitchers came over a much smaller sample size.

While Smith did take real steps forward last season, it appears there was some good fortune involved. Smith finished the season with a .368 weighted on-base average, but his .327 xwOBA (via Statcast) didn’t measure up. Even if you’re unconcerned by that and regard Smith as someone who could be a long-term offensive linchpin, it’s up in the air whether he’ll play another game for the Mets. Consider: Alonso has first base on lockdown, there’s no designated hitter option in the NL, and although Smith did get most of his playing time last season in the corner outfield, he’s part of a logjam there for the Mets. Not only could Yoenis Cespedes come back after a couple injury-crushed seasons, but the corner OF-capable foursome of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis remains on hand. Those players’ presences could help push Smith to the trade block and out of Queens.

As mentioned, Smith’s coming off a season in which he made clear progress. He also has another pre-arbitration season left and isn’t on track to reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign. All of those factors should buoy Smith’s trade value, as should the dearth of high-end first basemen in free agency, yet he’s still not going to bring back any kind of haul. Smith’s position, his lack of a track record in the bigs and a lack of demand for first basemen have likely tamped down his appeal on the market. Ultimately, it seems possible New York will use Smith to get rid of one of its undesirable contracts (Jed Lowrie? Jeurys Familia?), as Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Mets and Rangers were in talks on such a deal. The Rangers still haven’t upgraded at first, where Ronald Guzman was a disaster in 2019, so they might remain interested in Smith. The Red Sox, Royals and Twins also make for a few debatable landing spots.

For now, Smith looks like one of the most logical trade candidates in baseball. However, if the Mets don’t receive an offer to their liking, they keep Smith as a bench player or stash him as depth in Triple-A ball. Smith still has a pair of minor league options left, but he seems overqualified for anything below the majors at this point. Regardless, it doesn’t appear Smith will be able to carve out a regular role for himself as a Met, so a trade could be the best move for his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Remaining Needs: NL West

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With the offseason almost two months old, MLBTR is going through all 30 teams’ remaining needs by division.  We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, AL Central, and NL Central. Next up: the National League West.

Arizona Diamondbacks [Offseason Outlook]

The Snakes have overseen quite the busy offseason effort thus far. To an extent, though, the activity to date hints at more to come. If there’s an area that’s fully set, it’s the rotation … unless the organization decides to pull the trigger on a deal sending out pending free agent lefty Robbie Ray. That would be a strategic decision to turn a win-now asset into future value. It’s unlikely but not impossible that a hypothetical return would impact the immediate roster the way last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade did.

The position-player mix could be settled, too, though it’s also possible to imagine the club adding another piece. In the event that the D-Backs find good value on a center field-capable 4th outfielder or a second/third baseman, they could shuffle the assignments of existing players accordingly. Otherwise, the bullpen unit still feels susceptible of improvement. If the Diamondbacks don’t find other ways of investing their remaining available payroll space, they could pick up one or more of the experienced late-inning arms still waiting around in free agency.

Colorado Rockies [Offseason Outlook]

For some teams, the remaining needs are largely the same as the preexisting needs. The Rox really haven’t done much of anything this winter, picking up well-traveled veteran catcher Drew Butera and taking low-cost shots on pitchers Tyler Kinley and Jose Mujica. Adding better options in those areas remains a priority, albeit a seemingly unfunded one.

If there’s a dramatic move to be made this winter, it’ll happen on the trade side. The Rockies are at least chatting with rivals about Nolan Arenado. No doubt they’re fielding calls on Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Trevor Story as well. And it still seems plausible to imagine Charlie Blackmon being made available as a means of alleviating the team’s payroll pressures, though we’ve seen no real indication of talks on the well-compensated outfielder.

Los Angeles Dodgers [Offseason Outlook]

What do you get for the roster that has everything? A bigger star, of course. That’s what the Dodgers have reportedly set out to find, eschewing marginal upgrades and allowing Hyun-Jin Ryu to depart via free agency while stalking bigger game.

With the open market now rather picked over, the Dodgers appear to be focused on structuring complicated trades involving some of the game’s best players. Francisco Lindor? Mike Clevinger? Mookie Betts? Intriguing targets abound. Whether any will land in Chavez Ravine remains unknown.

If the Dodgers whiff on their primary objective, will the offseason be a bust? Perhaps, though there’s still ample talent on hand to sweep away the NL West for the eighth-straight time and the summer trade deadline will offer new opportunities to add. There’s an argument that the club could really use another quality late-inning arm, even after a $10MM roll of the dice on Blake Treinen, but that’s about as close to a true “need” as you get with this stacked roster.

San Diego Padres [Offseason Outlook]

If you think this offseason could be drawing to a close, look no farther than the Friars for one of several rosters that could still see major change. The club has certainly picked up some new pieces — skyrocketing reliever Drew Pomeranz, solid starter Zach Davies, outfielders Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham, and second baseman Jurickson Profar — but doesn’t look to have made overwhelming strides in advance of a critical season.

There’s certainly an argument to be made that the Padres can roll with their existing talent. There’s upside in quite a few places of the roster and more coming through the pipeline. But making a real run at the Dodgers-dominated NL West is not going to be easy, if it’s plausible at all. And the NL Wild Card figures to be tightly contested. Even breaking a nine-year run of losing records isn’t a sure thing.

With the threat of organizational change looming, the Padres should continue pushing for a blockbuster, win-now addition. And they probably ought to increase their pain tolerance for striking a deal. There’s still potential to improve in the outfield, especially in center, and at the top of the rotation. The Friars would like to upgrade behind the dish but will probably find that difficult to pull off. Finding a taker for Wil Myers is another notable possibility, with extension talks to follow during Spring Training.

San Francisco Giants [Offseason Outlook]

The Giants are in an awkward position, carrying a combination of underperforming, expensive veterans and cheaply acquired, still-not-established (but not necessarily youthful) players. President of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has made a few upside-oriented adds this winter but has yet to make any major moves.

Far more than plugging holes, Zaidi is looking for opportunities to build the organization’s talent base. But with the existing collection of established players and the team’s win-always market situation, there’s also some impetus to turn out a competitive product.

More than anything, the Giants could stand to improve at the back of the bullpen and in the outfield. Zaidi has gleefully churned through untold numbers of players at these precise areas since taking the helm. He has made a few finds but there’s plenty of work left to be done. Fortunately, there are some experienced relievers and higher-ceiling corner outfielders still floating around the open market, with trade opportunities perhaps also still alive, so the Giants could yet make more acquisitions.

Shogo Akiyama Gives The Reds Options

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What’s next for the Reds after reportedly agreeing to terms with outfielder Shogo Akiyama? That’s open to interpretation … and perhaps not part of a fully defined plan for the Cincinnati front office.

There’s no question that Akiyama will be tasked with significant playing time. He’s viewed by his new org as a top-of-the-order hitter who can line up at any outfield position, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. That suggests that Akiyama will see at least near-regular playing time … but also that he may not be tasked solely with playing in center.

These days, more than ever, it’s not strictly necessary to keep players in specific spots all year long. So … no big deal, Akiyama is now a part of the mix. But just how many ingredients can you have on one recipe card? The Reds already had loads of potential outfielders on hand.

Let’s start with the left-handed-hitting side. Former first-round draft pick Jesse Winker is the major carryover asset. He has obliterated right-handed pitching in the majors (.307/.396/.511) to about the same extent he has struggled against same-handed hurlers (.176/.295/.248). Utilityman Josh VanMeter spent time in the corners last year. Rule 5 pick Mark Payton had seemed slated to compete against holdover Scott Schebler and recent acquisitions Travis Jankowski and Nick Martini for roles. Now, with Akiyama joining Winker, it’s possible that none of those four players will be on the Opening Day roster.

That only begins to describe the crowd on hand. The outfield mix also features a bunch of righty bats. Highly touted youngster Nick Senzel — much more on him below — joins breakout performer Aristides Aquino as the major right-handed-hitting pieces of the picture. Phillip Ervin, Jose Siri, and even toolsy reliever Michael Lorenzen are also factors on the 40-man.

If nothing else, the Reds will surely end up bumping multiple outfielders from the 40-man roster. Ervin, Jankowski, and Schebler are all out of options. Payton must be kept on the active roster or sent back to the A’s. Siri appears to be at risk on the heels of an uninspiring 2019 season in the upper minors.

But the really interesting question isn’t how the Reds will resolve the margins of the 40-man. No doubt some of those calls will be made over the next two months, if and when the team makes other additions that create a crunch. Some of those players could hold appeal elsewhere, creating the possibility of trades and/or waiver claims.

What’s more intriguing is whether the Reds take a bolder path. It’s certainly possible the club will roll out an outfield foursome featuring Senzel and Aquino, from the right side, and Akiyama and Winker, from the left. But … just why did the organization gather up all of those platoon-able options of late?

Senzel had been the presumptive center fielder after being pushed out of consideration at his native second base position by the surprise signing of Mike Moustakas. With Moose joining stalwart corner pieces Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez in the infield, there’s really nowhere else for Senzel to go. Senzel has played on the left side of the infield, but never much at shortstop, where Freddy Galvis is presently the lone real option. (VanMeter has limited experience there in the minors.)

In theory, Senzel could play a major role in a shifting capacity. He’d play all over the outfield and spell the primary infielders. But that’s arguably not the best way to bring along a 24-year-old player who was not long ago a top-ten overall MLB prospect and presumptive franchise savior. That’s especially true given that he’ll be coming back from a less-than-excellent debut season that ended with shoulder surgery. Senzel still has loads of talent … and loads of trade value.

When you look at the roster, you’re left thinking … man, it’d all look so good if only Senzel could play shortstop. There’s nothing wrong with Galvis, but he has been a regular for a lot of non-competitive teams and seems misplaced as an everyday guy on a club with big aspirations. The Reds have dabbled with Senzel at short in the past, but he spent all of 2019 getting comfy in center. It feels unlikely he’ll be tasked with a big move to short on the heels of a winter spent rehabbing.

It’s not hard to connect the dots here. Adding Akiyama on the heels of the Moustakas signing hardly pushes Senzel out of the picture. But the combination of moves makes it easy to imagine the roster functioning without him. And Senzel would be just the kind of asset that would hold appeal to the teams that might consider giving up high-quality players at shortstop.

Who might that be? It’s far from clear that we’ll see a blockbuster at the shortstop position, but suffice to say there’s ample intrigue if you think creatively. We’ve seen the Reds tied to the Indians’ Francisco Lindor. Those teams have hammered out one recent major swap. It’s worth noting that the Dodgers are also in on Lindor, and that the Cincinnati club has sorted out major three-way arrangements with both of those organizations. Corey Seager would no doubt hold appeal as well. Other intriguing names that have arisen (largely speculatively) in rumors include Carlos Correa of the Astros and Trevor Story of the Rockies. The Athletics would have to listen on pending free agent Marcus Semien. Perhaps a player such as Dansby Swanson of the Braves could be acquired as part of some convoluted multi-team accord, though he wouldn’t necessarily be viewed as an impact addition.

The Reds wouldn’t be limited to shortstops, either. The club has pursued high-end catchers of late and could certainly benefit from an elite reliever or perhaps even a major corner outfield bat (with all the above discussion of the volume of outfielders applying with even greater force). Certainly, all of these areas remain ripe for improvement even if the Reds aren’t interested in dangling Senzel. There could yet be value to be had on the open market in the corner outfield, and the trade carousel may only just have begun to spin.

The point here isn’t to suggest that any particular scenario is likely to come to fruition. It’s that the Reds now have loads of avenues for finishing off their roster, depending upon what opportunities arise. For a club that has made no secret of its intention to win, and that has not shied from bold action of late, it’s an intriguing place to be.

As things stand, the Reds are improved. But Moustakas, Akiyama, and Wade Miley don’t collectively transform this roster (at least on paper) from a 75-win team into a surefire division winner. The moves to this point of the winter have put the organization in a place where it’ll be expected to contend even without further acquisitions … and where one well-conceived, major strike could make the roster stand out in the tightly bunched NL Central.

Taking Stock Of The Starting Pitching Market

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Entering the offseason, the market for rotation upgrades was robust — arguably one of the strongest groups of free-agent starters we’d seen. Two bona fide aces — Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg — headlined a group that also featured the NL Cy Young runner-up (Hyun-Jin Ryu), one of baseball’s hardest-throwing starters (Zack Wheeler), a 30-year-old four-time All Star and three-time World Series winner (Madison Bumgarner) as well as a host of quality veteran innings eaters and midrotation options.

The result has been 14 multi-year deals for starting pitchers and nearly $1.13 billion spent on hopeful rotation upgrades. Granted, Cole himself accounts for nearly 29 percent of that sum. Combining him and Strasburg accounts for 50.4 percent of the total issued to starters on MLB deals this winter. Their presence skews those total figures a bit, but it’s nevertheless been a healthier free-agent market than we’ve seen over the past couple of years.

The accelerated pace of the market and the unexpected aggression of some teams not expected to be prime players for free agents — the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks, in particular — have left teams still seeking rotation upgrades with a dearth of options to pursue in free agency. So with all the high-end options gone, what’s left on the market?

Steady Innings

Ivan Nova has averaged 30 starts per season dating back to 2016. He had a strong finish after a brutal start to the season with the White Sox in 2019. He’s probably going to post an ERA north of 4.00 with well below-average strikeout totals, but Nova is the best bet for serviceable bulk innings remaining in free agency. Other options in this mold include Jhoulys Chacin, Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas. They’ve all been roughly 30-start-per-season arms since 2017, although both Chacin and Cashner lost starting jobs and were put into the bullpen in 2019. There’s not much excitement among this bunch, but if you’re looking for 150+ innings that won’t kill you, this isn’t a bad place to start.

Injury Bounceback Candidates

Alex Wood will turn 29 in January and, in 2017-18, posted a combined 304 innings of 3.20 ERA ball (3.43 FIP) with 8.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate better than 50 percent. The lefty’s delivery has led to durability issues throughout his career, but when healthy he’s at least a midrotation arm, if not more.

Jimmy Nelson, long a top prospect with the Brewers, looked like an emerging ace in 2017 when he pitched 175 1/3 innings with a 3.49 ERA, an even more impressive 3.05 FIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 50.3 percent grounder rate. Shoulder issues wiped out most of his 2018-19 seasons, but Nelson won’t turn 31 until next June.

Let’s not forget Taijuan Walker, who’ll pitch all of next year at 27. Once one of baseball’s truly elite pitching prospects, he’s barely pitched since 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. Walker tallied 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate with the D-backs in ’17. He’s had no shortage of injury troubles in his career, but Walker offers as much upside as any still-unsigned player on the market.

Meanwhile, Danny Salazar has pitched in only one game (four innings) in the past two seasons but will pitch next year at 30 and has averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in his MLB career. Tyson Ross has completed just one healthy season in his past four but was an All-Star caliber pitcher back in 2014-15. Aaron Sanchez could technically slot into this bucket as well, but it’s still not fully clear when in 2020 he’ll be ready to pitch after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the season.

Veterans with a Bit of Upside

As improbable as it’d have sounded 12 months ago, Homer Bailey is probably among the more intriguing low-cost arms on the market. The 33-year-old never lived up to his $105MM contract in Cincinnati, but in 2019 he posted slightly below-average strikeout rates, better-than-average walk rates and solid ground-ball tendencies. Bailey’s 10.8 percent swinging-strike rate in 2019 was the second-best of his career.

Drew Smyly quietly turned in a solid showing with the Phillies down the stretch, and posted a huge 12.2 percent swinging-strike rate after signing in Philadelphia. His teammate, Jerad Eickhoff, is “only” 29 but hasn’t had a strong showing since the 2016 campaign.

Veteran Reclamation Projects

Several pitchers on the market carry name value but minimal results in recent years. Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey, Marco Estrada, Wei-Yin Chen, Clayton Richard, Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill are all free agents, but no one from that group has been particularly healthy or effective over the past few seasons (although Buchholz’s injury-shortened 2018 season in Arizona was undeniably impressive). Shelby Miller is younger than anyone in that group, but his struggles over the past several seasons are well-documented at this point.

And on the Trade Market?

Everyone knows that Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd is available for the right asking price, but the Tigers have a lofty asking price on his final three seasons of club control. The Diamondbacks could make Robbie Ray, a free agent next offseason, available now that the free-agent market is largely devoid of options.

Less clear is whether the likes of Jon Gray or Chris Archer are available. Both possess the type of high-end stuff that will appeal to other clubs, but the Rockies and especially the Pirates could be selling low if they made a move this winter. Colorado also hopes to contend in 2020, though that seems rather unlikely with the Dodgers and D-backs ahead of them in the NL West and so many strong clubs vying for two Wild Card spots.

The Marlins have a bevy of young pitchers, and Caleb Smith’s name has persistently been kicked about the trade circuit over the past several months. Miami trading him is hardly a surefire thing, but one can imagine that for the right combination of prospects and controllable big leaguers, the Marlins would consider it.

Could some veterans be on the move? The Red Sox have been trying to find a way to move a portion of the remaining $96MM on David Price’s contract. The Cubs, also operating under an ownership change of course that has placed substantial payroll constraints on the front office, could mull a trade involving Jose Quintana as a means of opening some payroll space.

Mike Clevinger’s recent emergence on the rumor mill immediately made him one of the most popular targets among fans, but it’d be a rather significant surprise if the Indians dealt him away — recent trade of Corey Kluber notwithstanding.

Who’s Still Looking?

The Angels and Twins, two of the teams viewed as most in need of pitching help heading into the winter, haven’t yet made an impact move. The Minnesota org brought back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda but still hasn’t improved its rotation over 2019. The Angels have acquired Dylan Bundy and signed Julio Teheran, but the big-name starter for which fans pined never materialized. Likewise, the Padres never found the top-of-the-rotation arm they’ve been seeking for awhile now.

The Dodgers were connected to the big fish, as they are every offseason, but once again opted against a substantial commitment to an open-market player. The Brewers have taken flak for their lack of starting pitching but continue to prioritize lower-scale value plays and depth over higher-priced options. That could put them in play for some of the upside candidates mentioned above, but it’s worth noting that they moved on from Jimmy Nelson already. The Astros have Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and a returning Lance McCullers Jr. (Tommy Johns surgery), but they have limited certainty beyond that group. The defending-champion Nationals are among the clubs looking for fifth-starter candidates.

How AL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2019

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We took a look earlier tonight at what the National League’s teams have done to improve their weakest position (as per bWAR) from the past season, and now let’s turn our attention to the 15 American League clubs….

Angels (Catcher, -0.7 bWAR): Amidst signing Anthony Rendon and bringing in pitching, the Halos have also been looking for catching help in trade talks and free agent negotiations, with potential targets Jason Castro and Robinson Chirinos still among the remaining available names.  The search for catching has yet to bear fruit, however, leaving Los Angels with Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom as its current backstop tandem, and hardly an improvement over even the position’s meager 2019 output.  First base was another negative (-0.1 bWAR) position last year, though the Angels are hoping Tommy La Stella keeps up his strong hitting while moving to the primary first base role, and anything can be mined from Albert Pujols in the declining slugger’s 20th Major League season.

Astros (First base, 2.4 bWAR): This is an ideal time to point out that the idea of a “weakest position” is all relative, as the Astros win the prize for the best “worst” position in all of baseball.  Houston would be perfectly happy with a repeat performance from Yuli Guerriel, and utility options Aledmys Diaz and Abraham Toro are on hand to back up the position.

Athletics (Designated hitter, 0.3 bWAR): After signing Khris Davis to a two-year, $33.5MM extension covering the 2020-21 seasons, the A’s couldn’t have been pleased to see Davis post the worst season of his seven-year career.  With just a .220/.293/.387 slash line and 23 homers, the bat-only Davis was a sub-replacement player himself and almost dragged the entire DH spot down with him into negative-bWAR territory.  Oakland can only hope that Davis gets back on track in 2020, or else the low-payroll A’s might find themselves in the awkward position of having to bench their highest-paid player if the club is in another pennant race.

Blue Jays (Right field, -0.1 bWAR): Speaking of highly-paid players coming up short, the Blue Jays received nothing from their right field spot despite the regular presence of Randal Grichuk, who signed an extension in April that guaranteed him $47MM in new money over the next four seasons.  While Grichuk didn’t hit much in 2019, he also wasn’t solely responsible for the lack of right field production, as the likes of Billy McKinney, Brandon Drury, Socrates Brito, and even Eric Sogard and Cavan Biggio all saw time in right while Grichuk was used in center.  It isn’t yet known if Grichuk will remain in right field or again be needed in center, but regardless, Toronto will need Grichuk or another right field option like Derek Fisher to be much more productive.

Indians (Designated hitter, 0.7 bWAR): While the Tribe will technically be keeping the DH spot open for multiple players, it’s probably safe to assume that Franmil Reyes will get the bulk of action at the position.  Acquired from the Padres as part of the Trevor Bauer blockbuster at last year’s trade deadline, a full season of Reyes’ power potential should give Cleveland the extra thump they were missing at DH last season whenever Carlos Santana was at his customary first base spot.

Mariners (Center field, -0.5 bWAR): It’s been a pretty quiet winter overall for the Mariners, and with the youth movement on, the M’s aren’t likely to bring in veteran help to either support or supplant Mallex Smith as the regular center fielder.  The Mariners will hope that Smith can improve on a lackluster 2019 that saw him take big steps backwards both offensively and defensively, with youngsters like Jake Fraley or Braden Bishop on hand to step in should Smith continue to struggle.

Orioles (Relief pitching -0.5 bWAR): As you might guess, the O’s bottomed out at numerous positions, including negative bWAR measures in left field (-0.4) and center field (-0.1).  The decision to deal Jonathan Villar to the Marlins in a virtual salary dump indicates that Baltimore won’t be spending much of anything on its MLB roster in 2020, so any relief additions will be low-cost veterans and minor league signings.

Rangers (Catcher, -2.0 bWAR): Good news for the Angels, as they didn’t have nearly the worst catching corps in the AL West!  Jose Trevino, Jeff Mathis, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Tim Federowicz are all still in the organization, however, with Nick Ciuffo’s minor league deal representing the only new addition.  Like the Angels and probably every other catcher-needy team still on the market, the Rangers have had talks with Chirinos and Castro.  Either would bring some type of stability to a position that was a major weak link for Texas in 2019, even while the club’s more heavily-publicized needs in the rotation and at third base have drawn more attention thus far in the offseason.

Rays (Catcher, 0.7 bWAR): Speaking of teams that need catching help, the Rays have seemingly spent years on a perpetual hunt for backstops, and now just saw Travis d’Arnaud depart for a two-year contract with Atlanta.  This leaves the Rays with Mike Zunino and Michael Perez, and since this combo wasn’t good enough for 2019, Tampa Bay is likely to continue looking throughout the winter.  They’re not equipped to sign Chirinos or Castro if it comes down to a bidding war against most well-heeled clubs, so a trade might be the Rays’ better bet.

Red Sox (Second base, -0.2 bWAR): The newly-signed Jose Peraza is probably Brock Holt’s replacement in the utility infield role, and the keystone looks like it’ll be Peraza’s primary source for playing time given how Boston is mostly set around the rest of the diamond.  Peraza will have to rebound from a poor 2019 campaign, as will re-signed utility infielder Marco Hernandez.  Former top prospect Michael Chavis is a more promising name in the mix, though for now it seems like the Red Sox will mostly deploy him at first base.  The x-factor is Dustin Pedroia, who is hoping for a midseason comeback after missing virtually all of the last two years due to knee injuries.  It isn’t exactly the most inspiring collection of second base candidates, though the Sox don’t have much to spend as they seem largely focused on getting under the luxury tax line.

Royals (First base, -1.9 bWAR): Ryan O’Hearn’s rough season leaves first base as an open question for Kansas City heading into 2020, though the addition of Maikel Franco at third base has shuffled the infield deck.  K.C. could go with a lefty/righty platoon of O’Hearn and Ryan McBroom, or Hunter Dozier or Whit Merrifield could now factor into the first base mix when they’re not in the outfield.  There’s room for the Royals to add an inexpensive first base bat if they aren’t fully prepared to go with the kids.

Tigers (Catcher, -2.2 bWAR): Detroit fielded the worst collection of position players in baseball last season, as the 0.2 bWAR generated in center field and in right field represented the team’s best positions.  The Tigers addressed second base (-0.9 bWAR) by signing Jonathan Schoop and first base (0.1 bWAR) by inking C.J. Cron, and for their biggest need behind the plate, another veteran free agent was acquired in Austin Romine.  The longtime Yankees backup has quietly hit .262/.302/.428 with 18 homers over the last two seasons and 505 plate appearances, and he’ll now get his first real crack at a regular starting job.  There’s no real downside in these one-year deals for Romine, Schoop, and Cron, as the Tigers inch their way back towards respectability.

Twins (First base and left field, 2.0 bWAR): Even the weakest links on the Bomba Squad were still pretty powerful, as Cron hit 25 homers as Minnesota’s primary first baseman and Eddie Rosario swatted 32 home runs in left field.  Cron, however, was non-tendered and the Twins have floated Rosario’s name in trade talks, so the club clearly feels improvement can be found.  Super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez can handle either position in a pinch and is currently slated for first base, though with the Twins in the hunt for Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano could find himself shifted from third base across the diamond to first.  If Rosario was dealt, Minnesota could continue its big-game hunting by getting into the Marcell Ozuna chase for the left field vacancy, or just rely on Gonzalez until star prospect Alex Kirilloff is potentially ready to make his big league debut later in the season.

White Sox (Right field, -1.8 bWAR): Chicago only had a cumulative 0.0 bWAR for its outfield as a whole (second-worst total in the majors), with right field being the biggest culprit.  While Nomar Mazara hasn’t been too far above replacement level himself during his four years in the majors, the White Sox are hoping that the newly-acquired right fielder will be a post-hype breakout now that he has landed in a new environment.  A right-handed hitting platoon partner for Mazara could still be pursued, though the Sox are reportedly more focused on bullpen additions than outfielders right now.  The Sox also had a negative bWAR (-0.4) from their designated hitters in 2019, though that position has been firmly bolstered with the signing of Edwin Encarnacion.

Yankees (Designated hitter, 1.8 bWAR): Another position that is only a “weakness” in relative terms, given how the Yankees got great contributions from all over the field despite an almost unimaginable string of injuries.  With these health concerns in mind, obtaining an actual full-time DH probably won’t happen, as New York will want to cycle multiple players through the designated hitter spot for the sake of partial rest days.  Giancarlo Stanton is the likely candidate to receive the majority of DH time in the wake of his injury-filled 2019 season.

How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2019

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Despite all of the free activity we’ve seen to date, a look at the calendar reveals that we’re not yet even halfway through the offseason, so there’s still plenty of time for teams to shore up obvious areas of need.  In this post, we’ll look at what each of the 15 National League teams have done so far to upgrade their weakest positions from the 2019 season (as determined by bWAR).  As you might expect, we ignore the DH category while dealing with NL clubs.  The breakdown…

Braves (Catcher, 0.1 bWAR): Brian McCann’s hot start gave way to a lackluster second half, and Tyler Flowers offered some elite pitch-framing but little else either offensively or defensively.  With McCann now retired and Flowers re-signed, Atlanta made a splash by signing Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year, $16MM deal.  It isn’t a huge investment, though the Braves are betting that d’Arnaud’s strong 2019 performance with the Rays is a sign that he has put his past injury woes behind him.  d’Arnaud was the top non-Yasmani Grandal free agent catcher available, so Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos made a decisive move to not just shore up his own backstop situation, but also remove d’Arnaud as an option for the many other clubs in need of catching help.

Brewers (Shortstop, -0.3 bWAR): After consecutive seasons of sub-replacement level play, Orlando Arcia is no longer Milwaukee’s top option at shortstop, though the former top prospect was retained on an arbitration-avoiding $2.2MM contract for the 2020 season.  It seems like Arcia will lose playing time to, ironically, another former blue chip prospect who has also struggled to hit MLB pitching.  Luis Urias was acquired as part of a four-player trade with the Padres, as San Diego decided after 302 plate appearances over parts of two seasons that Urias wasn’t their second baseman of the future (Fernando Tatis Jr. obviously has shortstop spoken for at Petco Park).  It should be noted that Urias is only 22 years old, and he has posted strong averages and on-base numbers in the minors, so it is certainly still possible that his bat can blossom with a change of scenery.  The Brewers also added veteran utilityman Eric Sogard as part of their near-total infield overhaul, and while Sogard is probably better suited for second or third base at this point in his career, he can provide further depth at the shortstop position.

Cardinals (Right field, 1.4 bWAR): Dexter Fowler and Jose Martinez handled the bulk of right field duties last year, with Fowler rebounding after a dismal 2018 season and Martinez taking a significant step back at the plate after posting impressive numbers in 2017-18.  Fowler’s hefty contract and no-trade clause makes him unlikely to be dealt, so he’s probably the favorite to return next season unless the Cards move him to left field as part of a wider outfield shakeup.  St. Louis has a lot of outfield candidates but are short on true everyday players, so the picture could become a lot clearer if the Cardinals move an outfielder or two to address other needs.  Star prospect Dylan Carlson could end up seeing some time in right field in 2020, though the Cards are probably likely to initially try him out as a center fielder as he makes his Major League debut.

Cubs (Second base, 0.0 bWAR): Addison Russell was non-tendered and Ben Zobrist is a free agent, leaving Nico Hoerner, David Bote, Ian Happ, Daniel Descalso, and the newly-acquired Hernan Perez as options at the keystone.  The Cubs would love it if one of their in-house candidates (particularly a former top-100 prospect like Hoerner or Happ), claimed the job, though Happ could also be considered for center field, another position of need — Cubs center fielders combined for only 0.2 bWAR in 2019.  There’s a ton of uncertainty surrounding these positions and around the Cubs as a whole, yet Chicago’s offseason seems to be at a standstill based on the twin factors of a payroll crunch and Kris Bryant’s service-time grievance.  Bryant’s case won’t be decided until January at the earliest, leaving the Cubs unsure of how to market one of their biggest trade chips as they look to cut salary by any means necessary, even if that means moving established stars like Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, etc.

Diamondbacks (Right field, 0.0 bWAR): Steven Souza Jr. spent the entire 2019 season on the injured list, leaving Arizona to have to make do with veteran Adam Jones taking the bulk of right field playing time.  Souza was non-tendered and Jones is off to Japan, so the D’Backs went with another experienced option by signing Kole Calhoun to a two-year, $16MM deal.  Long a solid performer over his career with the Angels, Calhoun badly struggled in 2018 before bouncing back to hit .232/.325/.467 with 33 homers over 632 PA last season.  In Arizona native Calhoun, the D’Backs hope they’ve found the reliable right field solution that they thought had been acquired in Souza two offseasons ago.

Dodgers (Relief pitching, 1.2 bWAR): Though the bullpen as a whole posted some very good numbers in league-wide categories, the twin concerns of Joe Kelly’s inconsistent year and Kenley Jansen’s uncharacteristically average season left L.A. fans with major questions at the back of the pen.  One possible solution has already been added in Blake Treinen, who was an elite closer in 2018 but was non-tendered by the A’s after a rough 2019 season.  A Treinen who approaches his 2018 form could single-handedly be all the late-game help the Dodgers need, though expect the club to bring at least a couple of new relievers into the mix, at least on minors deals.

Giants (Second base, 0.5 bWAR): Now that the Joe Panik era is over in San Francisco, the Giants hope that youngster Mauricio Dubon can thrive as a regular second baseman.  Dubon will be complemented by infielders Donovan Solano and newly-acquired Zack Cozart, picked up in a salary dump from the Angels.  The keystone is far from the only problem facing the Giants, as it was one of a whopping seven positions that posted a collective bWAR of 1.4 or lower, and the Giants’ 3.2 starting pitching bWAR was the third-lowest in the league.

Marlins (Outfield, -2.0 bWAR): While the right fielders generated 1.2 bWAR, Miami had the league’s worst left field (-1.4 bWAR) and center field (-1.8 bWAR) production.  Combined with the -0.5 bWAR from the bullpen and -0.1 bWAR at second base, that makes it a total of four sub-replacement positions for the 105-loss Marlins.  There’s clearly a lot of work to be done, though the Fish are making an honest effort to improve by adding several veteran players, including their recent agreement with Corey Dickerson on a two-year, $17.5MM contract.  Dickerson should instantly revive the moribund left field situation and add a proven bat to the Miami lineup.

Mets (Center field, 0.2 bWAR): Rumors continue to swirl about New York’s interest in Starling Marte, though the Mets have already made a lower-level center field improvement in acquiring Jake Marisnick from Houston.  Even if a Marte trade with the Pirates doesn’t happen, a full and healthy season from Brandon Nimmo with Marisnick spelling him against lefty pitching and as a late-inning defensive sub should give the Mets some long-awaited stability up the middle.

Nationals (Relief pitching, 0.1 bWAR): The Nats captured their first World Series title despite season-long bullpen issues, and the club has yet to do much to its relief depth besides inking Fernando Abad and Kyle Finnegan to minor league contracts and re-signing Javy Guerra.  With more pressing questions to address in the infield, the District might wait until later in the winter to pursue more veterans on low-cost deals.  Daniel Hudson is being targeted for a reunion, though it may depend on whether or not Hudson can find his desired multi-year contract elsewhere.

Padres (Catcher and first base, -0.2 bWAR each): With $99MM still owed to Eric Hosmer, there isn’t much San Diego can do at first base besides hope that Hosmer rebounds from a subpar 2019 campaign.  As for catcher, stay tuned, since the Padres’ seemingly nonstop trade explorations include a desire to improve behind the plate, with defensive specialist Austin Hedges more likely to be dealt than Francisco Mejia.  (Austin Allen was already traded to the Athletics as part of the swap that brought Jurickson Profar to San Diego.)  Even if no further trading takes place, some improvement could happen from within, as Mejia hit well despite battling injuries last year and was a consensus top-35 prospect heading into the season.

Phillies (Third base, 0.6 bWAR): Maikel Franco was non-tendered, leaving the hot corner open for Scott Kingery to finally claim a regular position in Philadelphia’s everyday lineup.  It’s probably safe to assume Kingery will still do his share of bouncing around the diamond, however, especially if Philly adds another part-time infielder (beyond Josh Harrison or T.J. Rivera) or if top prospect Alec Bohm forces his way into the picture partway through the season.

Pirates (Right field, -0.7 bWAR): Shoulder problems limited Gregory Polanco to only 42 games last season, so Pittsburgh is hoping that a healthy Polanco is enough to turn right field around in 2020.  It remains to be seen how actively the Bucs will shop for any veteran depth as a backup option, as speculation persists that new GM Ben Cherington could take the Pirates into a rebuild.

Reds (Second base, -0.6 bWAR): The Reds headed into the offseason intent on adding some major pieces to what they hope will be a contending team, and to that end they went big (if in a surprising manner) in solving their second base problem.  Cincinnati’s four-year, $64MM deal with Mike Moustakas was notable for being the biggest free agent deal in club history, and a guarantee far beyond any projections for the Moose’s latest sojourn into free agency, as he landed only modest one-year deals in each of the last two winters.  After spending virtually all of his career at third base, Moustakas played 47 games at second base for Milwaukee last season and apparently impressed the Reds enough to make him their long-term answer at the keystone.

Rockies (Center field, -1.0 bWAR): Left field was just behind with -0.9 bWAR, while the outfield as a whole combined for 0.4 bWAR, the third-lowest total of any outfield in baseball last year.  Colorado is another team mired in payroll problems, trying to figure out how to improve not just the outfield, but several sub-standard positions despite a lack of available funds.  Trading Nolan Arenado is the nuclear option that the Rockies may or may not be willing to explore in order to both free up payroll and add some talent to address Colorado’s many needs.  In terms of the outfield, the Rox might juggle some combination of David Dahl along with Sam Hilliard, Garrett Hampson, and Raimel Tapia in left field and right field, with Ian Desmond also still on hand and looking for his long-awaited Rockies breakout.

Free Agent Faceoff: Castellanos Vs. Ozuna

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The elite class of free agents – those capable of landing significant multiyear contracts – has shrunk to almost nothing since the market opened at the beginning of November. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, who could wind up with a contract in the $80MM vicinity (if not more) before next season begins, stands out as by far the No. 1 player available. For the most part, impact players without teams are a lot harder to find thereafter, though there are a couple other hitters who should join Donaldson in cashing in during the coming weeks.

Outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna entered the offseason as two of the top outfielders sans contracts. Almost two months later, they’re still looking for jobs. At the outset of the winter, MLBTR predicted a four-year, $58MM guarantee for Castellanos and a three-year, $45MM guarantee for Ozuna. Several teams have been connected to the two since, but neither player has found an offer to his liking. Now, it’s worth wondering who’s the more desirable player of the pair.

Castellanos, who will turn 28 in March, broke out with the Tigers in 2016 and has been a well-above-average offensive player since. During that four-year, 2,454-plate appearance span spent with the Tigers and Cubs, Castellanos slashed .286/.336/.504 with 94 home runs, a 6.5 percent walk rate and a 22.3 percent strikeout rate en route to a 121 wRC+ (meaning his production came in 21 percent above the average hitter’s) and 9.7 fWAR.

As has been covered time and again, Castellanos’ defensive limitations have somewhat offset his work at the plate. Castellanos couldn’t hack it at third base, which led the Tigers to move him to right field late in 2017. He has also endured no shortage of troubles in the outfield, having accounted for minus-35 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-25.7 Ultimate Zone. Although Castellanos did show some improvement last season, he still stumbled to a minus-9 DRS with a minus-5.2 UZR. So, if you’re adding him to your team, you’re probably not expecting much in the field.

On the other hand, DRS (plus-28) and UZR (plus-28.3) have given high marks to Ozuna in the outfield (primarily left) since his career began with the Marlins in 2013. Dating back to then, Ozuna has batted .273/.329/.455 with 148 homers (112 wRC+), a 21 percent strikeout rate against a 7.5 walk percentage, and 20.3 fWAR over 3,861 trips to the plate divided between Miami and St. Louis.

The 29-year-old Ozuna has been a more valuable player overall than Castellanos, though the latter has closed the gap in the past couple years. Castellanos was clearly the more productive batter in that span, as his 126 wRC+ trumped Ozuna’s 108 mark. But both players have been perennial Statcast favorites, evidenced in part by Castellanos’ .364 expected weighted on-base average and Ozuna’s even better .382 figure from 2019.

Bottom-line production aside, Castellanos and Ozuna have shown themselves to be pretty durable throughout their careers. Since his first full year in 2014, Castellanos has put up seasons of 148 games or more five times (including 151 in 2019). While Ozuna did miss 32 games because of broken fingers last season, he does have four years of 148-plus games on his resume.

Castellanos and Ozuna have looked similarly valuable of late, though the comparison between the two is admittedly imperfect. After all, they do line up at different positions, and Castellanos – unlike Ozuna – had the benefit of reaching free agency without a qualifying offer hanging over his head. Still, as the two top outfielders on the market, it at least makes some sense to group Castellanos and Ozuna together. Which player would you rather sign?

(Link for app users)

Who's the more appealing free-agent outfielder?
Nicholas Castellanos 50.26% (6,089 votes)
Marcell Ozuna 49.74% (6,025 votes)
Total Votes: 12,114

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Remaining Needs: NL Central

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We’re nearly halfway through what has been a vastly more active offseason than we saw in either of the past two winters. We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, and AL Central. Next up: the National League Central.

Chicago Cubs

Welp … it’s hard to know what to say here. If the baseball operations department is as hard up for cash as reports indicate, then it’s difficult to pinpoint opportunities that ought to be pursued. To this point, the Cubs have made only the cheapest of additions — Hernan Perez, Ryan Tepera, Brandon Morrow, Trevor Megill — while exploring significant trades — Kyle Schwarber? Willson Contreras? Yu Darvish? Kris Bryant?! Anthony Rizzo?!?! — that could set the stage for greater roster maneuverability. We don’t know where talks stand, but there’s no indication that a blockbuster is close to happening.

If and when the Cubs are able to free some resources, then they’ve certainly got holes to be filled. The team ought to bolster the back of the rotation, add one or more pieces to a highly uncertain bullpen mix, improve in center field, and figure out a way to put another big bat in the lineup. No doubt such a swap would accomplish one or more of those goals. Trouble is, any deal involving a highly paid, core player would create another opening — or, at least, inject some new uncertainty. It’s a tight balancing act that will put president of baseball ops Theo Epstein and co. to the test.

Cincinnati Reds

Sensing some vulnerability at the top of the division and tired of bringing up the rear, the Reds are pressing hard to win now. The club has done all it can in the rotation and filled its second base opening by signing Mike Moustakas. But it rather clearly hasn’t reached a stopping point if it really wants to maximize its chances at a 2020 postseason bid.

The Reds have irons in quite a few fires. They’ve already shown they can pull off a significant swap, having added Trevor Bauer at over the summer. But that cost a top prospect in Taylor Trammell, so it may be hard for the club to give up more significant young talent in trades. Trouble is, what’s left in free agency may not perfectly suit the Reds’ needs. Adding Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, or Corey Dickerson could make some sense, but the club has options in the corner outfield mix and may not see enough marginal gain to justify the cost.

What this team needs most is star-level performers up the middle. Nick Senzel is a valuable asset but may be mis-cast as a center fielder. Tucker Barnhart has a sterling defensive reputation behind the dish but doesn’t do much with the bat. And shortstop Freddy Galvis is better suited to utility work for a team with designs on winning a division. It’s possible to imagine marginal improvements in these areas through the addition of quality, semi-regular players — Shogo Akiyama, Jason Castro, Jose Iglesias — but that will also mean pushing other useful players off of the roster. Swinging a blockbuster may prove tricky, but will surely be the focus of the rest of the winter. It also wouldn’t hurt to add a veteran setup arm.

Milwaukee Brewers

Roster churn is all part of the plan for GM David Stearns. The value-hunting Milwaukee baseball operations department didn’t chase the market on several departing free agents, preferring instead to seek the next buy-low opportunities while also swinging a pair of notable asset-shifting trades. The initial additions look solid from a value perspective. And they’ve been so voluminous that it’s fair to wonder how much work is really left to be done.

The Brewers aren’t overly focused on pitching roles, but could probably still stand to add arms. Hurlers such as Corbin Burnes, Brent Suter, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, and Jake Faria could operate as short-outing starters, long-inning relievers, or as typical one-inning bullpen arms. That’s a fine strategy, but it’s one that depends upon digging up as many cost-efficient assets as possible. And it’s arguable the club ought to punctuate the unit by finding a way to add another premium pitcher to go with top starter Brandon Woodruff and ace reliever Josh Hader.

The Brewers currently project to come in well under last year’s $120MM+ payroll level. But you can bet they won’t spend money just to use up their budget. Stearns may at this point largely sit back, building out trade scenarios and scanning the bargain bin for finds.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Incoming GM Ben Cherington finds himself in a position not so different from the one that Stearns inherited a few years ago in Milwaukee. The Bucs don’t spend much, but they do have legitimate talent at the MLB level and in the upper levels of the pipeline, much like the pre-2016 Brew Crew. Cherington may follow the paths of Stearns and (former Cherington understudy) Mike Hazen of the Diamondbacks, both of whom have to this point found success — if not postseason glory — by eschewing both dramatic rebuilding and wild spending phases in favor of diligent, value-oriented roster maneuvering.

Presuming that sort of conceptual approach … well, we still don’t know what to expect. Cherington may not blow things up, per se, but he also surely won’t hesitate to move high-quality veteran players when it makes sense. Center fielder Starling Marte, reliever Kone Kela, and starter Chris Archer are the most obvious candidates; utilityman Adam Frazier and righty Joe Musgrove have reportedly drawn interest. If the trade offers meet or exceed the prices being paid in free agency, maybe Cherington will unleash an early-2020 onslaught of deals. But he really doesn’t have any veterans that he absolutely must move this winter.

As for additions, the team needs a long-term catcher first and foremost. It hasn’t settled on players at the 4-5-6 positions, but has plenty of internal options at or near the majors. Improving the rotation and bolstering the bullpen are theoretically desirable, but the focus will be on achieving value coming off of a rough 2019 campaign. Other buy-low desires will be dictated by which (if any) players are moved out via trade.

St. Louis Cardinals

At the moment, the Cards look exactly as they did when the 2019 season wrapped up, except without outfielder Marcell Ozuna and with lefty Kwang-Hyun Kim stepping into the shoes of Michael Wacha. There are, as always, a dozen or so outfield possibilities on hand. Perhaps it’s not unreasonable to expect some number of them — including, eventually, top prospect Dylan Carlson — to fill in adequately for Ozuna. This mix worked to the tune of a division title in 2019, so there’s no particular reason to think it can’t succeed again.

It’s a bit difficult to pick out a remaining free agent (Josh Donaldson aside, anyway) and say that the St. Louis roster would be improved drastically through that player’s addition. Sure, the team would rather have Nicholas Castellanos than not, but at what price would it make sense over the existing pieces? If there’s a specific position that feels unresolved, it’s probably center field and its questionable combination of Harrison Bader, Randy Arozarena, and Lane Thomas. But that’s precisely the wrong area to add this winter, with the aforementioned Marte leading a meager list of good possibilities.

What the Cards could use more than anything, it seems, is something we’ve mentioned previously with regard to this roster: to consolidate some of their solid MLB assets into really good ones. As it stands, only Paul DeJong finished the 2019 season with 4 or more fWAR (in his case, driven by glovework). Getting quality for volume is a tricky thing to pull off; it’s more or less what the team attempted, with still-questionable results, in last year’s Paul Goldschmidt deal. But it’s what president of baseball ops John Mozeliak ought to be seeking to swing — at more or less any area of the roster — over the next two months.

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