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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Brodie Van Wagenen

The Mets suffered through their second straight disastrous season in 2018, leading to major changes atop their baseball department. General manager Sandy Alderson stepped away in June to battle a recurrence of cancer, which proved to be the end of a tenure that was occasionally fruitful but recently disappointing.

Seeking a replacement for Alderson, the Mets mostly interviewed candidates who were already executives at the major league level. In the end, though, they made the unexpected decision to name longtime player agent Brodie Van Wagenen as their GM.

Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon were already plenty familiar with Van Wagenen, who counted big-name Mets Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes among his clients when he was with CAA Sports. Now that Van Wagenen is on the Mets’ side, Fred Wilpon believes his “high character, blend of analytics, scouting and development ideas” will help the franchise escape the doldrums.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets payroll outlook]

The Mets started 2018 a red-hot 11-1, but they began an epic nosedive soon after and sat 16 games under .500 at the All-Star break. By then, New York’s chances of contending were out the window, and the question was whether it was going to retain the deGrom/Syndergaard duo past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. That same month, the outspoken Van Wagenen proclaimed the Mets should trade deGrom if they weren’t going to extend him. Ultimately, the Mets didn’t reach an extension with deGrom or deal him or Syndergaard. Depending on the Mets’ GM hire, both deGrom and Syndergaard could have been trade candidates this offseason. But with Van Wagenen now calling the shots, the team’s not primed to kickstart a rebuild by parting with either of its superstar hurlers. Rather, according to Van Wagenen, the Mets “will win now,” and they “expect to be in on every free agent.”

In light of Van Wagenen’s free-agent declaration, visions of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may have been dancing in the heads of the most optimistic of Mets fans. However, even though the Mets play in the majors’ biggest market and have zero dollars on their books past 2020, it’s hard to imagine them reeling in either. For one, there’s no word on how much the Mets are willing to increase their payroll over last year’s $150MM-plus Opening Day sum. Landing Harper or Machado would require a sizable jump over that figure, as the Mets’ payroll is already nearing $135MM heading into 2019. Secondly, the Mets have never even doled out a $150MM guarantee, yet both Harper and Machado could push or exceed $400MM on their next deals.

While Harper and Machado seem likely to be out of New York’s price range, the club could still come away from free agency having made significant improvements. There are more realistic targets out there, including for the Mets’ bullpen, which is a focal point for the team this offseason. Per Van Wagenen, the Mets are seeking “multiple” relievers to upgrade over last year’s bullpen – a unit that was among the majors’ worst. As things stand, right-handers Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Drew Smith are the only current Mets relievers who were remotely effective over a fair amount innings in 2018 (lefty Daniel Zamora also impressed, but he did so over a mere nine frames). There’s a lot of work ahead as a result, though there are also several proven relievers available on the open market.

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Looking For A Match In A James Paxton Trade

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Earlier this week, the Mariners and Rays made the offseason’s first major trade, a five-player swap in which catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Mallex Smith changed teams. That may prove to be the first of multiple noteworthy deals Mariners trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto orchestrates this winter, especially considering his intention to “re-imagine” his team’s roster. The majority of that roster is available for trade, Jon Heyman of Fancred reported prior to the Zunino deal, though he added that outfielder Mitch Haniger, closer Edwin Diaz and left-handed Marco Gonzales appear safe.

The most interesting name missing from Heyman’s list is Gonzalez’s fellow southpaw starter James Paxton, who’s Seattle’s closest thing to an ace. With the 30-year-old Paxton down to his final two seasons of team control, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has heard that the Mariners will trade him this winter.

While Paxton does have a checkered injury history and has only exceeded 160 innings in a year once (last season, when he tallied 160 1/3), the fireballer is still one of the majors’ premier lefties. Paxton has averaged just 24 starts and 139 innings a season since 2016, his breakout campaign, but the Big Maple nonetheless racked up 11.9 fWAR during that three-year span. In that regard, only 12 starters bettered Paxton, who’s sandwiched between Noah Syndergaard and Luis Severino. And since 2017, Paxton ranks fourth among starters in K/9 (11.06), fifth in FIP (2.95), 11th in K/BB ratio (4.61) and tied for 21st in ERA (3.40).

Paxton’s projected to earn $9MM in 2019, a far lighter commitment than the best free-agent starters will rake in this winter, which only adds to his appeal. Acquiring Paxton would still sting a team to a degree, of course, as that club would presumably need to part with a big-time haul to land him. In shipping Paxton out, perhaps Seattle would significantly boost a farm system which has long languished at the bottom of the majors.

Here’s a look at potential suitors for Paxton, going from best to worst record in 2018:

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Astros fell just shy of their second straight World Series berth in 2018. Now, with the offseason underway, they’re facing multiple key departures in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Astros Depth Chart | Astros Payroll Information]

Elite starting pitching was a hallmark of the Astros from 2017-18, but at the outset of the offseason, their rotation has lost quite a bit of luster. The terrific tandem of Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton may exit in free agency, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month. Fortunately for Houston, it still boasts a tremendous one-two punch in ace right-handers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The team’s starting mix is murkier thereafter, though president and general manager Jeff Luhnow suggested when McCullers went under the knife that the Astros would turn back to Collin McHugh as a starter after he worked exclusively out of their bullpen in 2018.

The 31-year-old McHugh was quietly one of the majors’ most effective relievers last season, so deploying him as a starter would obviously weaken Houston’s bullpen. At the same time, it would give the Astros another viable starter, something McHugh served as from 2014-17. He relieved last season because Houston had incredible starting depth, which isn’t quite the case right now. That’s not to say the cupboard is empty after McHugh, though, as the Astros still possess arguably the game’s No. 1 pitching prospect – towering righty Forrest Whitley, 21 – not to mention fellow top-100 prospect Josh James and swingman Brad Peacock. But Whitley seems likely to open 2019 at Triple-A, a level he hasn’t yet reached, and Peacock could stay in a relief role after totaling just one start in 61 appearances last season. James may have the most realistic chance of the three to begin 2019 in the Astros’ rotation, and the 25-year-old flamethrower did stand out late last season in the majors – albeit over just 23 1/3 innings divided between the rotation and bullpen.

Beyond Whitley, James and Peacock, there are a slew of starting options in the minors who either carry limited track records in the majors or no experience at the game’s highest level, as Jake Kaplan of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required). With that in mind, it seems clear that restocking their rotation will be a priority for the Astros this winter.

There hasn’t been any word on whether the Astros will make an earnest attempt to re-sign Keuchel, a Scott Boras client who’s on a collision course with a substantial payday. On the other hand, Morton has made it known he’d welcome a return to Houston in 2019. Morton’s on the market unfettered after the Astros surprisingly decided against issuing him a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. It’s fair to surmise Morton’s age (35 next week) and lengthy injury history played a role in that call, and those factors will also tamp down his earning power on the open market. Regardless, Morton was stellar as an Astro over the past two years – including during a 167-inning, 3.13 ERA showing in 2018 – and would be difficult to replace.

With the futures of Keuchel and Morton in question, the Astros figure to be in on some of the top available starting pitchers in the coming weeks – especially considering Verlander, Cole and McHugh are each signed for just one more season. Luhnow swung blockbuster trades in the past to acquire Verlander and Cole, and he may again go that route to bolster his rotation. It helps that the Astros happen to have one of the game’s most impressive farm systems, which could give them a legitimate chance to win a bidding war for the Indians’ Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer (though the latter has had it out with Houston in the past), three front-line starters who each come with two or more years of control. The Indians will at least consider offers on that trio, while another high-caliber arm – James Paxton of the Mariners – may also find himself on the move.

Whether the Mariners would send Paxton to Houston, one of their AL West rivals, is anyone’s guess. The same concerns wouldn’t exist with Zack Greinke, whom the Diamondbacks could part with in a payroll-cutting measure. Even though he’s 35, Greinke remains an outstanding starter. However, he’s owed another $95.5MM through 2021, which not only limits his trade value but could scare off potential suitors (including Houston, though the club could likely afford to take on his contract). More reasonably priced targets may include hard-throwing lefty Robbie Ray, one of Greinke’s Arizona teammates, as well as the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy and the Yankees’ Sonny Gray. Aside from Gray, who’s slated to become a free agent in a year, all of those hurlers come with at least two controllable seasons. And while Stroman, Bundy and Gray struggled in 2018, it’s worth noting each were above average in terms of spin rate, in which the Astros are big believers.

Houston would likely be buying at least somewhat low on Stroman, Bundy or Gray, given the down years they had. Free agent Garrett Richards, another spin rate darling, also stands out as an intriguing buy-low candidate. Having undergone Tommy John surgery last July, Richards probably wouldn’t contribute in 2019. Although, if he inks a two-year deal, he’d be able to help Houston come 2020, when some or all of Verlander, Cole and McHugh could be off the team.

As far as healthy free-agent starters go, perhaps the Astros will explore the top of the market, where Patrick Corbin, Keuchel and Nathan Eovaldi are the headliners. The next tier includes J.A. Happ, Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi (if his team posts him), Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros come away with any of those starters, barring a trade(s).

A trade may be the Astros’ preferred way to upgrade behind the plate, which seems inevitable. With Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado and DH/onetime catcher Evan Gattis now unsigned, Houston’s down to Max Stassi and recent waiver claim Chris Herrmann as its backstops. Stassi was effective in 2018, especially as a defender, but his offensive production cratered after May. That could help point the Astros back to the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, the sport’s premier catcher in 2018. The Astros were in on Realmuto last winter, when they reportedly considered offering coveted young outfielder Kyle Tucker for him, but Miami ultimately retained its franchise player. However, now that Realmuto’s a year closer to free agency and still refuses to sign an extension with the Marlins, a trade’s probably coming sometime soon.

Houston’s certainly a logical fit for Realmuto, though it’ll have some alternatives in free agency if it’s unable to swing a deal with Miami. The leading member of the free-agent group, Yasmani Grandal, has already landed on the Astros’ radar. The 30-year-old Grandal’s the only catcher in the game who was a better pitch framer than Stassi in 2018, and he also brings a track record of quality hitting to the table.

While catcher looks like the Astros’ focus with respect to their position player cast, there are other concerns, including at DH. As excellent as the Astros were from 2017-18, their primary DHs – Carlos Beltran two years ago, Gattis last season – underwhelmed during that span. Sure, Gattis smacked 25 home runs in 2018, but he was a mediocre hitter overall (101 OPS+, 99 wRC+). Meanwhile, even though he was playing his age-38 season, the Mariners’ Nelson Cruz continued to serve as an offensive force. Cruz is now one of the foremost hitters available in free agency, and has drawn the Astros’ interest since the market opened.

Speculatively, the Astros may have other sluggers on their radar, including Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, Rays first baseman C.J. Cron and Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak. It’s true that Houston already has a starting first baseman in Yuli Gurriel, but he was mediocre in 2018 and may be better served as a utility player. Taking on such a role would enable Gurriel to at least partially replace free-agent Swiss Army knife Marwin Gonzalez, who appears to be on his way to landing a raise outside of Houston.

Gonzalez saw more left field action in 2018 than any other Astro, which could put them in the market for help there if the 21-year-old Tucker’s not ready to assume the reins. If next season began today, Houston would possibly be looking at a Tony Kemp/Jake Marisnick platoon in left. Needless to say, that’s not the most confidence-inspiring duo. If the Astros really want to swing for the fences (no pun intended), they could go after free agent Bryce Harper, whom they nearly acquired from Washington at last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline. On paper, Harper’s projected annual salary ($30MM-plus) would push the Astros’ 2019 payroll to around $165MM – roughly a $5MM boost over last year’s franchise-record Opening Day outlay, and that’s without any improvements at other positions. However, the Astros only have $50MM-plus tied up in their 2020 roster and just $29MM locked in from 2020-24. A Harper pursuit may not be wholly out of the question, then, though the Astros could deem it infeasible with no proven starting pitchers under control past next season and three core players (Bregman, Correa and Springer) possibly due for massive extensions in the coming years.

Should a Harper-Astros union prove to be a flight of fancy, the club could still better its outfield mix in free agency with someone like center fielder A.J. Pollock, who’d enable Springer to move back to a corner on a full-time basis, or a high-profile corner bat such as Michael Brantley or Andrew McCutchen. For the most part, corner outfield trade possibilities don’t look as enticing.

As is the case with every team, the Astros figure to dedicate at least some offseason attention to their bullpen. The unit may lose McHugh to the rotation and lefty Tony Sipp to free agency, after all. Still, with Peacock, Ryan Pressly, Roberto Osuna, Hector Rondon, Will Harris, Chris Devenski and Joe Smith slated to return, the Astros’ relief corps is in enviable shape. If Houston’s bullpen needs anything, it’s a southpaw to complement its septet of accomplished righties. It’s unclear whether the Astros are interested in re-signing Sipp, who bounced back in 2018 after two dreadful seasons. In the event Sipp’s on his way out, Houston may consider fellow free agents Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez and Jerry Blevins to replace him. It’s worth noting the Astros already have connections to four of those players. They unsuccessfully chased Britton and Wilson on the trade market in recent years, traded for Perez in 2015 (it didn’t go well), and made a generous offer to Miller during his previous trip to free agency in 2014.

It’s evident the Astros have an array of plausible paths they could take this winter in order to up their chances of winning a third straight AL West title in 2019 and recapturing World Series glory. Luhnow believes the Astros “have a championship-caliber roster already in place,” but don’t expect him to rest on his laurels in the coming months. With Keuchel, Morton and Gonzalez potentially leaving Houston, inactivity isn’t an option.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The youth movement is on in Toronto, as the Blue Jays will look to continue trading veterans and picking up controllable pieces for the future.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview]

It’s pretty unlikely that any player the Blue Jays acquire this winter will have as much impact on the franchise as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is expected to make his long-awaited MLB debut sometime early in 2019. The precise timing isn’t yet known, but there’s no question the club will wait until it is no longer possible for Guerrero to achieve a full year of MLB service time. The consensus top prospect in the sport, Guerrero represents the next generation of Jays baseball, when he and a host of other intriguing youngsters from Toronto’s farm system will theoretically become the core of the Jays’ next contending team.

Until those prospects arrive and develop, however, the Jays will spend their time (perhaps the next two seasons, as per GM Ross Atkins’ rough timeframe) figuring out who will be playing alongside them.  The club already began dealing some of its veterans once it faded out of contention last season, and it’s safe to assume the Blue Jays will be open to moving any and all remaining established names to make way for younger talent.

Since the Jays currently have a lot of options for both the infield and outfield spots, Atkins has already said that the team will prioritize moving some of its excess position players to add pitching.  The rotation is perhaps the biggest concern heading into 2019, as the Jays are poised to deploy a highly uncertain starting five. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are still in the mix. Otherwise, the unit is slated to be made up of largely untested hurlers — Ryan Borucki, and then some combination of Sean Reid-Foley, Sam Gaviglio, Thomas Pannone, and perhaps Jon Harris or Jacob Waguespack.

Stroman received trade interest last summer, even while in the midst of a down year that saw the right-hander post a 5.54 ERA over 102 1/3 IP while battling shoulder and blister issues. The Jays would be selling low on Stroman if they dealt him this offseason, and are perhaps more likely to explore a trade (if at all) during the season, provided the righty is healthy and showing some of his 2017 form.  Sanchez is an even greater longshot to be moved, as his stock has fallen after pitching only 141 innings total in 2017-18 due to persistent finger, nail, and blister problems.

Given that even the veteran names in the rotation aren’t certainties, Toronto will look at adding at least one experienced arm on a short-term contract, similar to their signing of Jaime Garcia last winter (obviously with better results, the team hopes).  Ervin Santana, Josh Tomlin, Drew Pomeranz, or Martin Perez are a few bounce-back candidates that could conceivably fit as targets on one-year deals, not to mention a familiar face like Marco Estrada, though Estrada’s own struggles in 2018 may lead the Blue Jays to pursue someone with more upside.

If the Jays looked at pitchers beyond one-year commitments, another old friend like J.A. Happ could be a possibility, should Happ value a familiar environment over a chance to compete for the playoffs in 2019.  Pitchers like Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, or Lance Lynn could fit. Looking to the future a bit, the Jays could consider Garrett Richards, who will miss 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be ready for 2020 when Toronto is a step closer to contention.  Getting even more creative with their starters, the Jays could potentially even use an “opener” for one of the rotation spots, though that is far from a certainty.

Any veteran starter the Jays acquire, of course, could also become a trade candidate at the deadline, and the same goes for any reliever the team might pick up.  The Blue Jays have signed and then flipped a number of inexpensive free agent relievers over the last two offseasons (Seunghwan Oh, Joe Smith, John Axford), so expect them to target similar bullpen arms this winter.  In terms of in-house relievers that could be traded, incumbent closer Ken Giles is the biggest name, though he might be another player who the Jays wait to properly shop until he improves his value during the season.  Giles posted a 4.65 ERA over 50 1/3 total innings with the Astros and Blue Jays in 2018, with some excellent peripherals (9.5 K/9, 7.57 K/BB rate) but also very poor numbers when not pitching in save situations.

The question of “when should an asset be traded?” will certainly linger over Toronto’s offseason, particularly in the wake of the relative lack of return the Jays received for Josh Donaldson last summer, when the former MVP could’ve netted much more prior to his injury-riddled 2018 season.  The Jays obviously aren’t going to rush to move a player purely as a reaction to Donaldson’s situation, though selling high on a few players now would make sense given the Blue Jays’ projected timeframe for contention.

Randal Grichuk, for instance, played quite well in his first year in Toronto, though he might not be part of the team’s future since he is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season.  Justin Smoak is only under contract through 2019, so it might make sense for the Jays to deal him this winter and create room to give Rowdy Tellez a longer look at first base.  Teoscar Hernandez offers five years of control and a lot of power, though his high strikeout totals and near-unplayable outfield glove could make him someone the Jays see as less of a long-term roster piece and more as someone to be dealt in a package for a true long-term asset.

Of course, the Jays would undoubtedly be much more open to dealing Troy Tulowitzki, Kendrys Morales, or Russell Martin, though these high-priced veterans are each more or less immovable.  Morales rebounded from a poor 2017 to post above-average hitting numbers (112 OPS+, 108 wRC+) last year, but it would take more than decent numbers to drum up much trade interest in a DH-only player with a $12MM salary.

Martin has at least a little theoretical trade value, perhaps in a swap of bad contracts with a team that needs a catcher, though even that scenario could be hampered by a larger-than-usual number of decent veteran catchers available in free agency.  Danny Jansen is slated for the bulk of catching duties for the Jays next season, leaving Martin as a well-paid backup and veteran mentor to Jansen, Luke Maile, and Reese McGuire (plus maybe some backup infield duty).

After missing all of the 2018 season due to heel injuries, Tulowitzki has no trade value whatsoever, and it remains to be seen exactly what the Jays will do with Tulowitzki if he is able to take the field come Opening Day.  The shortstop doesn’t appear open to a position switch, and while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. can play several positions around the diamond, the Jays are obviously interested in giving Gurriel more time at shortstop given his status as a franchise building block.  One answer could be to deploy Gurriel at third base until Guerrero is promoted, giving the Jays a few weeks to see if Tulowitzki can still contribute, but there is simply so much uncertainty around Tulowitzki’s health that the Blue Jays will consider anything they can get from him in 2019 as a bonus.

With Gurriel penciled in at shortstop, Aledmys Diaz or Brandon Drury are the favorites to be the pre-Guerrero third baseman, and both players should also vie for playing time with Devon Travis at second base.  Travis stayed healthy in 2018 but wasn’t very productive, while Drury only played 26 MLB games last season.  The Jays would be selling low on either, and could just keep everyone around to compete for the job in the short-term while keeping second base warm for prospects Bo Bichette or Cavan Biggio (or maybe even Gurriel, depending on who ends up playing where in the future).  Toronto already declined a club option on Yangervis Solarte and will likely part ways with him, given their other infield options.

More trade possibilities abound in the outfield, as any of Grichuk, Hernandez, or Kevin Pillar could be playing elsewhere on Opening Day.  Pillar’s elite center field glove showed some decline last season, dropping to a negative value (-2) in Defensive Runs Saved with only slightly positive grades from UZR/150 (+2.5) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (+1).  Pillar has never been a productive hitter, so if he isn’t offering excellent defense, he doesn’t bring much to the table as an everyday player.  At a projected $5.3MM arbitration salary, a case can be made for Pillar as a non-tender candidate, with some combination of Grichuk, Anthony Alford or Billy McKinney then handling center field. That said, it’s also quite possible that another club would like to take a shot on Pillar at that price, particularly since he has another season of arb eligibility remaining. He’s also a candidate to stay and play in hopes that he’ll be of interest at the trade deadline.

Though the Jays have just under $113MM in payroll commitments in 2019, that number drops to under $21MM the following year, and Gurriel is the only player under contract beyond the 2020 season.  This opens up more trade possibilities for the team, as Toronto could absorb a large salary from another team in order to also acquire some prospects or MLB-ready talents.

There’s really no shortage of what the Blue Jays “could” do this winter now that the rebuild is fully on, though it’s probably safer to expect a few deals and modest free agent signings (like last offseason) rather than a huge overhaul.  As noted, the Jays have so many possible trade candidates still looking to rebuild value (Stroman, Sanchez, Giles, Travis, Pillar) that much of the real heavy lifting on the trade front might not take place until the middle of the 2019 season.

The Jays have already made one intriguing move this winter, however, in hiring Charlie Montoyo as the team’s new manager.  Montoyo is a well-respected baseball man with 22 years of experience in the Rays organization as a minor league manager and a coach on the Major League staff, though he has no prior ties to either the Jays, Atkins, or team president Mark Shapiro.  This makes Montoyo a completely fresh voice within the dugout, and thus perhaps a fitting choice to steward the Blue Jays into their new era.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The White Sox will make pitching additions as they begin to see the light at the end of the rebuilding tunnel, and have the payroll flexibility to pursue the biggest names in free agency if they so choose.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Welington Castillo, C: $7.75MM through 2019.  Includes club option for 2020.
  • Nate Jones, RP: $4.65MM through 2019.  Includes club options for 2020 and ’21.
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $23.15MM through 2022.  Includes club options for 2023 and ’24.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Overview]

With two rebuilding years in the books, the White Sox figure to make a push toward opening their next competitive window this winter.  2019 might serve as a transitional year, with higher expectations and at least some small chance of reaching the playoffs.  GM Rick Hahn explained in September, “We’ve made no secret that when the time comes for as we’ve described adding more finishing pieces that we knew those were going to have to come via free agency.  While we are not yet in a position realistically to be adding so called finishing pieces, we are in a position where we need to be opportunistic with regards to the free agent market.”

Let’s take a look at the White Sox payroll situation.  With only Castillo, Jones, and Anderson under contract for a total of $13.3MM in 2019, it’s wide open.  We project the team’s six arbitration eligible players to total around $36.7MM, though the team could easily jettison Avisail Garcia, Leury Garcia, and Davidson if they feel they have better options.  So the team’s likely commitments are in the $38-50MM range.  An Opening Day 25-man roster payroll in the range of $110-120MM is plausible, based on the team’s historical spending.  Bottom line: this team can afford just about any contract.

In 2018, catching duties were handled by Omar Narvaez, Kevan Smith, and Welington Castillo.  Smith has already been lost to the Angels on a waiver claim.  Narvaez, 27 in February, has shown himself to be a capable hitter over the last two years.  He’s also been one of the game’s worst pitch framers and isn’t adept at throwing out attempted thieves.  Castillo was signed a year ago to take on primary catching duties, but he was popped in late May with an 80-game suspension for PED use.  The team is set to roll in 2019 with a Castillo-Narvaez tandem, with top catching prospect Zack Collins waiting in the wings.

Jose Abreu just finished his fifth season as Chicago’s first baseman.  Abreu, 32 in January, has offered a stabilizing veteran presence for the White Sox.  GM Rick Hahn has surely fielded offers over the years, but Abreu’s skillset isn’t one that would likely draw a large return on the trade market.  Now, he has only one year remaining until free agency and an ever-growing salary.  There’s no reason to push for an upgrade or trade this winter, but any contract extension would have to be fairly modest in nature.

Yoan Moncada, just 23 years old, put in his first full season as the White Sox second baseman.  The results were a mixed bag, with about league average offense and the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball.  It was still a decent season.  The idea of trying Moncada at third base or even center field has been broached, but may not be necessary for 2019.  Similarly, shortstop Tim Anderson, 25, put in a useful campaign but still has room to grow.  One of the two, more likely Moncada, may be pushed soon by 2018 first-rounder Nick Madrigal.  The Sox deployed Yolmer Sanchez at the hot corner this year, and the 26-year-old did acceptable work holding down the fort defensively and bringing energy to the team.  He may be best served back in a utility role.

Clearly, there is room for improvement in the team’s infield.  The name on everyone’s mind: Manny Machado.  Hahn made a trade offer for Machado in December, despite the shortstop’s impending free agency.  Perhaps the idea was to help sell Machado on Chicago in an attempt to sign him before he hit the open market.  The 26-year-old would easily plug in on the left side of the infield for the White Sox, though I’m guessing the team would have a slight preference to put Machado at third base rather than his preferred shortstop.  Still, I don’t think Anderson’s presence will be a major impediment to a possible pursuit.  The White Sox check all the boxes for Machado: they have the interest, need, and payroll space.

Though the franchise has never even done a $70MM contract,  let alone one that could be more than five times that, there is precedent from almost 20 years ago.  Back in 1996, the White Sox signed slugger Albert Belle to a five-year, $55MM deal that was the largest in baseball history at the time.  The deal even included a clause that required Belle to remain one of the “top three salaried players for the life of the deal,” as Claire Smith wrote in the New York Times, or else become eligible for free agency.  “We’re not being fiscally irresponsible because we can afford it,” said owner Jerry Reinsdorf at the time.  On the other hand, baseball salaries have grown well beyond inflation since 1996.  $55MM in 1996 is the same as $88MM now – not $350-400MM.

Beyond that, a push for Machado would be slightly wasted if the team wasn’t otherwise built up to contend in 2019 with major pitching additions.  Rebuilding teams have certainly signed star players “early” in the past, but getting a five-plus win season from Machado in 2019 is a key part of signing him.  So the work wouldn’t be done with just Machado. The Sox could, of course, also look to upgrade at third base with someone other than Machado.  They could attempt to trade for Maikel Franco, Kyle Seager, or Jake Lamb or sign Josh Donaldson or Mike Moustakas, for example.

Avisail Garcia is the incumbent in right field.  Garcia had multiple DL stints for a hamstring injury this year and was scheduled for knee surgery in October.  He’s been a replacement level player for his entire career outside of 2017, and he projects for an $8MM salary in his final season before free agency.  Keeping him and hoping for a rebound is a reasonable gamble given the team’s payroll space, but the White Sox could also trade or non-tender Garcia if they are thinking bigger.  Like maybe Bryce Harper bigger?  The rationale for Harper is much the same as Machado.  That said, the White Sox have a long and often contentious history with Harper’s agent, Scott Boras.  I don’t know whether Reinsdorf has an appetite for tangling with him on a record-setting contract for Harper, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Left field was manned by many different players for the White Sox in 2018, mainly Nicky Delmonico, Charlie Tilson, Leury Garcia, and Daniel Palka.  The team received little production from these players, though Palka showed big power against right-handed pitching.  Generally, everyone was just keeping the seat warm for Eloy Jimenez, who is MLB-ready and currently rates as the third-best prospect in baseball.  Jimenez figures to finally get the call in late April, allowing the White Sox to control him for the better part of the next seven seasons.  Even as a rookie, he might be the team’s best player.  Jimenez could be an option at either outfield corner, and he’ll surely be a regular once he’s promoted.

Palka, 27, was a nice waiver claim for the White Sox a year ago.  He hit 27 home runs in 449 plate appearances for the Sox this year, and even with a lot of strikeouts and scarce walks, his power plays against right-handed pitching.  His defense needs work, and he’s yet to show that he can hit lefties in the Majors.  He’s an option to replace or platoon with Garcia in right field, but may be better served in a DH platoon with Matt Davidson.  Depending on whether the Sox want to keep Garcia and how they feel about Palka’s defense, they could turn to the market for a better outfielder to pair with Jimenez.  Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, and Marwin Gonzalez are the best non-Harper options in free agency.  Hahn could also go down a tier to the likes of Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, though neither projects as a difference-maker on the field next year.  The trade market has a few decent options, perhaps including David Peralta, Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Martinez, Yasiel Puig, Kyle Schwarber, and Wil Myers.

The White Sox gave most of their center field playing time to Adam Engel, who got the job done defensively but served as one of the worst hitters in baseball.  A.J. Pollock is the only real free agent option.  He’d be a good fit for the Sox, except that they’d have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K since Pollock received a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks.  There’s a price at which that makes sense.  The Sox could also hit the trade market, perhaps for someone semi-interesting like Michael A. Taylor or Odubel Herrera.

The team also must weigh the considerable number of outfield prospects who could arrive in the Majors about a year after Jimenez: Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, Luis Alexander Basabe, Micker Adolfo, and Luis Gonzalez.  There’s an argument for simply adding a stopgap veteran to improve depth in 2019, and then evaluating which prospects are MLB ready for the following season.

The White Sox gave most of their DH time to Davidson and Palka this year.  The pair can make for an effective platoon.  Still, if the White Sox don’t mind tying up the spot with one player, Nelson Cruz would give an excellent boost to the offense without a long-term commitment or loss of a draft pick.

With James Shields hitting free agency, the White Sox are poised to lose their 2018 innings leader in the rotation.  They also lost top young pitcher Michael Kopech to Tommy John surgery in September.  Reynaldo Lopez, 25 in January, authored a dominant finish (five runs in his last 40 innings) to push his ERA under 4.00 for the year.  The Sox surely hope he’ll be a rotation fixture for the next five years or more.  Carlos Rodon, 26 in December, is under team control for three more seasons.  He limped to the finish line, allowing 28 earned runs over his last 27 1/3 frames.  Both pitchers are locked in for 2019, despite middling peripheral stats that should temper enthusiasm.

It’s difficult to find the bright spots in Lucas Giolito’s season.  The 24-year-old righty put up a 6.13 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.40 HR/9, and a 44.4% groundball rate in 32 starts.  Nonetheless, it sounds like Giolito is penciled in for 2019.  I imagine he won’t get another 32 starts if he doesn’t take a step forward.  Dylan Covey, a 27-year-old former first rounder, had a few flashes of brilliance and should be in the rotation mix.  Top White Sox pitching prospect Dylan Cease moved up to Double-A in June and dominated, suggesting a 2019 MLB debut.  Dane Dunning should arrive in 2019, as could Jordan Stephens.  The team’s 2015 first-round pick, Carson Fulmer, struggled mightily at both Triple-A and the Majors, and will have to pitch his way back into the picture.

Some kind of addition makes sense for this rotation.  Again, there’s really no one the White Sox can’t afford.  They can throw big money at Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi, or look at more affordable options, including Hyun-Jin Ryu, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, or even Shields.  If he can be sold on Chicago, 27-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi would fit better into the team’s likely window of contention.  Garrett Richards would be another forward-looking pickup, since he should return from Tommy John surgery in 2020.  The trade market could include Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray, Dylan Bundy, and Julio Teheran.

Hahn spoke recently of the need to “augment the rotation and the bullpen” this winter, and picked up former top prospect Manny Banuelos as a possible bullpen option.  Holdovers in the bullpen will likely include Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Aaron Bummer, and Juan Minaya.  DH/first baseman Matt Davidson could contribute more as a mop-up man, which would be a fun story.  The Sox also have interesting options who reached the Majors this year in Ian Hamilton, Jose Ruiz, Thyago Vieira, Ryan Burr, and Caleb Frare. Tommy John recipient Zack Burdi could join the mix. I wouldn’t expect the White Sox to spring for Craig Kimbrel, but there’s a slew of solid options they can go after in free agency depending on their willingness to spend.

The White Sox payroll situation cannot be stressed enough: they could theoretically add Machado ($30MM projected annual salary), Corbin ($21.5MM), Pollock ($15MM), and Jeurys Familia ($10MM) and still have a payroll within their historical norms.  Most likely, though, the White Sox are a year too early to go nuts in the offseason.  If the team falls short on or ignores Machado and other big names, fans can still dream on a strong 2019-20 free agent class.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Orioles are the only team in baseball that lost more games than the Royals in 2018, but the Kansas City organization has suggested it doesn’t plan to embark on a lengthy rebuild featuring multiple years of tanking. Significant improvement, however, remains a tall order for general manager Dayton Moore and his staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

[Kansas City Royals depth chart | Kansas City Royals payroll]

Free Agents

The Royals lost an abysmal 104 games in 2018. While it was never expected that they’d contend for a division title, general manager Dayton Moore expressed open disappointment and frustration with his team’s noncompetitive nature — both in the days leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline and again, more emphatically, after the conclusion of the season. “I think when you create a mindset that we’re rebuilding, you somehow build in or make an excuse that’s it’s OK to lose baseball games,” said Moore when speaking to reporters in mid-October. “It’s not. … That’s our responsibility — to win games.”

If Moore’s comments do indeed indicate that he’ll make a concerted effort to make the Royals a more competitive club in 2019, he could be walking a fine line. The Royals are reportedly aiming to cut payroll by as much as $35MM next season after spending at record levels, and that won’t leave Moore with a great deal of flexibility when pursuing upgrades. Much of the payroll cutting can be accomplished organically; the contracts of Hammel, Brandon Moss and Travis Wood are now all off the books, while 2018-19 free agents such as Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda and Jon Jay were moved during the season — most with some degree of salary relief being included in the deal. The Royals, Moore explained in July, deliberately sought players who were MLB-ready or close to it (e.g. Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Kelvin Gutierrez) — a further sign that ownership and management don’t want to see another prolonged stretch of futility.

The Royals have also already cut ties with would-be arbitration-eligible players like Nate Karns and Brandon Maurer, further reducing their 2019 payroll projections. At present, between the six guaranteed deals referenced above, the three arb-eligibles remaining and another 14 pre-arbitration players to round out the 25-man roster, Kansas City projects to enter the season with a payroll just north of $90MM. As such, they’re already looking at a savings of roughly $31.5MM over their 2018 Opening Day payroll. That falls within the reported $30-35MM target range, but doesn’t leave for much in the way of free-agent pickups or added salary on the trade market.

That’s not to say, of course, that the Royals are precluded from adding any pieces at all. Perhaps ownership recognizes that it’s simply not possible to add much to this roster, as currently constructed, and keep payroll in the $90MM range. Perhaps the front office will be permitted to apply any savings accrued in last year’s midseason trades toward the 2019 payroll. (The Royals, for instance, saved more than $4MM by trading Herrera to the Nationals in early June.) Kansas City has also habitually backloaded contracts during Moore’s time as GM — often utilizing mutual options with relatively notable buyouts as an accounting measure to effectively defer some of the guaranteed portion of the deal. Moustakas, Hammel, Moss, Wood, Mike Minor, Chris Young, Edinson Volquez, Joakim Soria and Kendrys Morales all had mutual options on their free-agent pacts with the Royals.

It doesn’t seem reasonable to expect that the Royals will add much salary to the books in 2019, but if we see yet another offseason of somewhat creative spending out of Kauffman Stadium, there are a few obvious areas of upgrade — starting with the bullpen. Kansas City, at present, will have Peralta back in a late-inning role after he enjoyed a rebound year, to an extent. The former Brewers starter posted a solid 3.67 ERA and averaged better than a strikeout per inning but also walked 23 batters in 34 1/3 innings. Beyond him, Flynn and Tim Hill are options from the left side while Jesse Hahn, Kevin McCarthy, Burch Smith and Jorge Lopez are options from the right side. With Hahn, Lopez and Flynn all out of minor league options, they’ll need to make the roster in some capacity or be exposed to waivers.

When a bullpen’s most established figure walked more than six batters per nine innings the season prior, there’s obviously plenty in the way of openings. It’d be a surprise to see the Royals spend on top-tier relief arms or even those in the second tier of free agents, but the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium and the allure of guaranteed innings could help draw rebound candidates like David Phelps and Drew Storen (2017 Tommy John surgery) or AJ Ramos and Carson Smith (2018 shoulder surgery). Relievers coming off down seasons (e.g. Tyler Lyons, Justin Wilson) could make some sense, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a backloaded two-year pact for a solid but non-elite reliever coming off a quality season — someone in the Bud Norris vein, perhaps. There’s little reason for the Royals not to be active on the waiver wire and in offering minor league pacts with Spring Training invites, as well.

In the rotation, things look to be more set. Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jakob Junis and Brad Keller (arguably the most successful pick in last year’s Rule 5 Draft) figure to have rotation spots more or less set in stone. Hahn, Lopez, Heath Fillmyer and Trevor Oaks are among the options in the fifth spot. That said, the back of the rotation does present the Royals with the opportunity to promise some innings to rebound candidate with some upside; Drew Pomeranz, Lance Lynn and Tyson Ross could all make some level of sense in that five spot.

As for the more expensive names who are already penciled into rotation slots, it seems rather unlikely that the Royals would move them. Selling low on Duffy, a core piece who a season ago looked like a solid trade chip, would be difficult for the Royals, and it’s unlikely that they’d be able to accomplish that goal without absorbing some of the $46MM remaining on his deal. Financial help would be all the more required to move Kennedy, who has floundered through 52 starts and allowed 54 home runs through 273 1/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Meanwhile, the lineup is perhaps a bit more set than some would expect. Salvador Perez is entrenched at catcher and unlikely to be traded despite the fact that there’d be interest. Whit Merrifield has quietly emerged as one of the better all-around players in the American League (9.4 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR over the past two seasons), while his double-play partner, Adalberto Mondesi, hit .276/.306/.498 with 14 homers and 32 steals in just 75 games last year. Mondesi badly needs to improve his plate discipline (3.8 percent walk rate, 37.1 percent chase rate, 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate), but he clearly has some pop and isn’t lacking in baserunning or defensive chops. At first base, Ryan O’Hearn emerged late in the season and bludgeoned right-handed pitching at a .313/.403/.705 clip. Some regression is coming, but he could be paired with an affordable righty free-agent pickup late in the season to form a platoon. Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert remain on hand as internal options for that role, but neither has hit in the Majors to date — even in favorable platoon matchups.

Looking to the outfield, Gordon is assured of his spot in left field. While his four-year, $72MM contract has been a flop, Gordon remains a premium defender in left and had his best year at the plate since 2015 this past season. Center field isn’t exactly a certainty, but the organization likely wants to get a further look at rocket-armed Brett Phillips, who opened eyes with three highlight-reel outfield assists in 33 games but hit just .188/.252/.313 in 123 PAs after being acquired for Moustakas. The former top 100 prospect is strikeout-prone but nonetheless brings an exciting skill-set to the outfield. Jorge Bonifacio should see some time in right field, perhaps in a split with left-handed-hitting Brian Goodwin, who can handle all three outfield spots. If that group proves unable to cut it, Merrifield has proven versatile enough to handle some time in the outfield and could shift off second base if prospect Nicky Lopez hits his way to the big leagues.

There’s room for Kansas City to add some depth in the outfield, but they have enough relatively young options that it probably won’t be deemed a priority. Still, given the manner in which some outfielders have been squeezed out in free agency in recent offseasons, if there’s an intriguing veteran available on a one-year deal or on a non-roster invite in February or early March, the Royals could act opportunistically (as they did with Jon Jay last winter).

Beyond a platoon partner for O’Hearn at first base and perhaps a backup to Perez at catcher — Cam Gallagher has not hit much, and depth is thin beyond him — third base is the most apparent spot for the Royals to upgrade. Cuthbert and Dozier, the top internal options, simply have not delivered at the plate in the Majors. Cuthbert has tallied 830 PAs with just a .252/.303/.378 slash to show for his efforts, while Dozier has batted .228/.279/.388 in 409 PAs.

Perhaps it’s too much to expect the same result for a second consecutive season, but the Royals once again seem like a logical landing spot for Moustakas in free agency. With no qualifying offer attached to him this time around and a better defensive showing with his 2016 ACL surgery further behind him, it seems likely that Moose will land a multi-year deal this time around. It’d be easy enough to backload that deal to go easy on the ’19 payroll, especially considering the fact that Gordon’s deal will come off the books in the 2019-20 offseason. If not Moustakas, veterans like Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and Asdrubal Cabrera could be options. If the Royals can look beyond his off-the-field issues, perhaps Jung Ho Kang could fit there on a short-term deal as well.

Regardless of the moves made by the Kansas City front office this winter, it’s difficult to see the Royals contending in 2019. Moore has plainly stated that his top priority is to improve the team’s farm system, but he’s coupled that with simultaneous desire to win more games. It’s a dichotomous pair of goals, and in recent baseball history, most teams (particularly, those with lesser resources) have focused on one or the other — either being content to accept some losing years in the short term in exchange for a prolonged run of success or showing a willingness to mortgage some of the future for a chance at immediate glory. The Royals, though, appear as though they’ll strive for some incremental improvements without detracting from the minor league ranks. Even though it’s hard to envision the strategy leading to a 2019 winner, despite a weak division, expect the Royals to add some second- and third-tier free agents to the margins of the roster as they aim to put a miserable 104-loss season behind them.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The 2018 season was a resounding success for the Athletics, who entered the campaign as underdogs but ended it as one of the majors’ premier teams. Despite opening the season with baseball’s lowest payroll, the Athletics notched the sport’s fourth-most wins (97) and earned their first playoff berth since 2014. The postseason was a one-off for the Athletics, whom the Yankees bounced in the American League wild-card game, but it’s obvious the franchise came a long way this past year. Now, with the A’s looking to build an even better club for 2019, they’re set to increase payroll, as just-extended executive vice president Billy Beane announced this week. Of course, with the A’s still at least a few years away from potentially opening a new ballpark in Oakland, it may be unrealistic to expect their payroll to make a substantial near-term jump.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Stephen Piscotty, OF: $29.5MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 club option)
  • Yusmeiro Petit, RP: $6.5MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Athletics Offseason Depth Chart | Athletics Payroll Information]

Here’s a statement which would have seemed believable in, say, 2010 instead of 2018: A team which saw Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Edwin Jackson total at least 17 starts apiece made the playoffs. Amazingly, Oakland accomplished that this past season after grabbing Cahill, Anderson and Jackson off the scrapheap. All three of those pitchers’ halcyon days were supposedly long gone, but each paid dividends for an A’s team whose starting staff dealt with a horrific rash of injuries, including to No. 1 option Sean Manaea and promising youngsters A.J. Puk and Jharel Cotton, among many others. Manaea easily led the A’s in innings (160 2/3) and ERA (3.59), but his season ended Aug. 24 because of a shoulder injury/surgery that could keep him out for all of 2019. Meanwhile, both Puk and Cotton missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and they’re also likely to sit out some portion of next year.

Because of the injuries to Manaea, Puk and Cotton, not to mention the fact that Cahill, Anderson and Jackson are now free agents, questions abound in the A’s rotation. Unsurprisingly, it’s a major area of concern for Beane, who said this week that he and general manager David Forst – who, along with manager Bob Melvin, also just received an extension – want to “create a starting pitching group that Bob can rely on every day.”

Piecing together a reliable starting group was an extremely difficult task for the A’s in 2018, which led them to deploy the “opener” on several occasions, including in their playoff loss to the Yankees. Veteran reliever Liam Hendriks was the main pick in such situations, totaling eight “starts” in September. With the exception of a subpar playoff showing, Hendriks pitched brilliantly in those short outings, thereby salvaging his season just a couple months after the A’s cut him from their 40-man roster. The 29-year-old is now among the A’s arbitration-eligible players, and it’s unclear whether they’ll retain him or how they’ll utilize Hendriks if they keep him. Whether it’s Hendriks or another pitcher(s), Oakland could take a page out of the 2018 Rays’ playbook and use an opener on a regular basis for the majority of the season, which would slightly lessen the need to acquire traditional starting pitchers over the winter.

Of course, even if the A’s do continue rolling with that unorthodox strategy next season, they’d still need more help. After all, the unspectacular Mike Fiers – acquired from Detroit in August – looks like the most proven healthy starter they have. The 33-year-old did good work during his two-month stint in Oakland in 2018, but he’s more of a mid- to back-end arm than a front-line type. Fiers also won’t be cheap in 2019, but given the uncertainty throughout the A’s rotation, he seems more likely than not to stick with the club.

Beyond Fiers, Oakland’s top healthy options look to be Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt. All three were reasonably effective last season, but each carry limited track records in the majors. Lefty Jesus Luzardo has never appeared in the bigs, on the other hand, but the 21-year-old is one of Oakland’s best hopes to find an ace from within. While Luzardo has only combined for 94 2/3 innings above the Single-A level, he’s regarded as a stud prospect, and Forst recently suggested he could vie for a starting spot with the A’s as soon as spring training.

No matter what happens with Luzardo in camp, it’s clear the A’s will have to augment their rotation from the outside prior to then. The question is whether they have the financial flexibility to make headline-grabbing moves. Including arbitration projections, the A’s are already looking at an Opening Day payroll of more than $86MM, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates. They began last season just under $66MM, and they’ve only gone past $86MM once (in 2016). The A’s could create spending room by non-tendering some players and perhaps extending expensive designated hitter Khris Davis in order to lower his 2019 salary. However, even if those scenarios come to fruition, it’s tough to envision them being in position to splurge on anyone.

The good news is that Beane and Forst proved they could bargain hunt on the starting pitching market recently with the additions of Cahill, Anderson and Jackson (plus Rich Hill in 2016). And looking at this year’s class of free-agent starters, there’s no shortage of available veterans who a.) have been successful and b.) won’t break the bank. A few of the many names include CC Sabathia (a Bay Area native), Lance Lynn, Derek Holland (Bay Area ties from spending 2018 with the Giants), Ervin Santana, Clay Buchholz and former Athletics Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz and Tyson Ross. On paper, nobody from that group is all that exciting, but they could be effective, affordable options for Oakland to pursue in free agency. Alternatively, the A’s may seek higher-upside types via trade.

Even though he bombed as a member of the Yankees, who acquired him from the Athletics in July 2017, a reunion with Sonny Gray could make sense. The Yankees are all but guaranteed to sell low on the soon-to-be 29-year-old Gray, who pitched well outside of New York in 2018 and who’s projected to earn $9.1MM next season. If the A’s want to go bigger than Gray, perhaps they’ll make a push for a member of the Indians’ stellar trio of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. Cleveland will reportedly listen to offers for each of those hurlers, but because all three are fantastic and relatively inexpensive, the Tribe would demand bounties for any of them. With that in mind, it’s worth noting the A’s farm system sits a middle-of-the-pack 15th in Baseball America’s latest rankings. They probably wouldn’t be in the catbird seat with regard to acquiring any of the Indians’ aces, then.

There are fewer pressing issues elsewhere on the A’s roster, but they aren’t devoid of concerns. While most of the A’s terrific, Blake Treinen-led bullpen remains intact, they could lose two important pieces from it in Jeurys Familia and Shawn Kelley, who are now free agents. Meantime, on the position player side, their biggest questions are at catcher and second base, where their 2018 starters are also free agents.

At the keystone, Jed Lowrie has been an extension target for the A’s since at least the summer. Oakland wasn’t able to lock the 34-year-old up before the market opened, but it still seems to want him back. Considering Lowrie was among the majors’ most valuable second basemen from 2017-18, that’s not surprising. But the A’s will have to consider his age and injury history, not to mention the presence of intriguing youngster Franklin Barreto, when determining how much they’re willing to pay Lowrie. In the event Lowrie walks, Oakland could simply turn second over to the soon-to-be 23-year-old Barreto – who, despite posting palatable production in the majors and minors, struck out and walked at untenable rates from 2017-18 – or add one of the many veteran stopgaps available in free agency as a fallback.

The A’s took the veteran stopgap route behind the plate an offseason ago, signing Jonathan Lucroy to a one-year, $6.5MM deal. Lucroy’s a free agent again as a result, and it’s possible the A’s will bring him back on another short-term agreement. Lucroy, 32, is nowhere near the player he used to be, though he seemed to fit in nicely with the Athletics in 2018. Aside from Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos, each of whom should be out of the A’s price range, free agency’s lacking in game-changing backstops. That could lead the A’s to at least kick the tires on baseball’s best catcher from 2018, J.T. Realmuto, whom the Marlins figure to trade this winter. However, as is the case with the aforementioned Indians starters, acquiring Realmuto would mean surrendering a haul. As such, the A’s may be more inclined to go with a Lucroy type and continue waiting for 24-year-old catching prospect Sean Murphy, who could arrive in the majors sometime next season.

While catcher and second base are clearly the A’s biggest problem areas among their position players, there’s an argument that they should also add to their outfield. However, they’re already crowded out there, and most of the returnees acquitted themselves well in 2018.

The A’s most established outfielder is right fielder Stephen Piscotty, one of their shrewdest acquisitions from last winter. Center fielder Ramon Laureano was also an impact pickup from an offseason ago, but his addition came with much less fanfare than Piscotty’s. Laureano joined the A’s via waivers from the division-rival Astros in November, and he surprisingly went on to emerge as a standout during a 176-plate appearance campaign. Along with playing tremendous defense, the righty-swinger held his own against same-handed pitchers and lefties alike, creating hope that he can be an everyday starter for the long haul. The unheralded trio of Mark Canha, Chad Pinder and Nick Martini also proved to be tough outs, and the A’s may be confident they’ll deftly hold down left field in 2019. There’s also Dustin Fowler, whom the A’s acquired in the Gray deal. Fowler, 23, had a difficult rookie year, though in fairness, it was his first action since he suffered a brutal knee injury while with the Yankees in 2017.

Evidenced in part by their outfield, there should once again be plenty to like about the A’s cast of position players in 2019. Superstar third baseman Matt Chapman – whom the A’s may try to extend – will continue to be their franchise player, while Davis, first baseman Matt Olson, shortstop Marcus Semien and at least a couple outfielders represent quality complements who remain on hand. The bullpen also continues to look formidable, leaving the A’s shaky starting rotation as their most significant issue this offseason. Between the unit’s injuries, its potential free-agent departures and the A’s payroll constraints, Beane and Forst have serious work ahead to turn the staff into a strength prior to next season. If they’re able to achieve that feat, it would go a long way toward helping the A’s stay among baseball’s elite in 2019.

Poll: Bryce Harper Vs. Manny Machado

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With free agency now open across Major League Baseball, it’s only a matter of time before we see a pair of players receive the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Outfielder Bryce Harper and shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, two in-their-prime, Hall of Fame-level talents, figure to dominate headlines as long as they’re unsigned. It seems inevitable that both players will reel in contracts in excess of $300MM, and that may be a conservative estimate. Indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd project Harper to land a 14-year, $420MM pact and Machado to sign a 13-year, $390MM deal. There would be substantial risk in either of those contracts, needless to say, but it’s not every winter that a couple 26-year-old superstars reach free agency.

For a little while longer, the richest free-agent contract in major league history will belong to now-retired third baseman Alex Rodriguez, whom the Yankees re-signed to a 10-year, $275MM accord after the 2007 season. However, a current Yankee, outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, owns the largest deal ever. He signed that contract – a 13-year, $325MM extension – in 2014 as a member of the typically small-spending Marlins, whose new ownership group felt it had no choice but to get Stanton’s money off the books last winter on the heels of an NL MVP-winning season.

It’s now conceivable that the Yankees will sign at least one of Harper or Machado to join Stanton in their lineup, but their interest in/need for either is unclear. Even if the Yankees do chase one or both of those players, they’ll face quite a bit of competition from other teams capable of handing out mega-deals.

Like Stanton, Harper already has an NL MVP on his resume, having won the award in 2015. That still easily ranks as Harper’s best season, but the longtime National has starred in nearly every campaign since he made his much-anticipated debut as a 19-year-old in 2012. Dating back to then, the lefty-swinging Harper ranks 10th in the majors in wRC+ (140, meaning he has been 40 percent better than the average offensive player) and 12th in position player fWAR (30.7, good for 4.6 per 600 plate appearance).

If there are any legitimate knocks on Harper, they may be his defense and injury history. Regarding the former, Harper ranked second to last among all major leaguers this past season in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-26) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-14.4). The defensive struggles he displayed in 2018 may be a reason to worry or simply a fluke, as the metrics viewed Harper as a competent outfielder during his previous seasons. Although Harper didn’t hold his own with the glove in ’18, he did appear in a career-high 159 games. The durability he showed off last season couldn’t have come at a better time for Harper, who missed 51 games in 2017 and whom injuries have limited to fewer than 120 contests two other times.

With the exception of 2014, in which he only played 82 games, availability hasn’t been a problem for Machado. Since 2013, his first full season, Machado has racked up at least 156 appearances on five occasions. He played 162 games this past year, which he divided between the lowly Orioles and the NL-winning Dodgers, and turned in his third campaign with at least 6.0 fWAR.

Going back to ’13, Machado sits seventh among position players in fWAR (29.0, which equals 4.5 per 600 PA), though he hasn’t achieved his value in quite the same way as Harper. From 2013-18, 47 players combined for a higher wRC+ than the righty-hitting Machado’s 121, though that’s still an outstanding number. Furthermore, he happens to be coming off a personal-best offensive campaign (141 wRC+) in which he belted 30-plus home runs (37) for the fourth straight year.

There’s little doubt Machado will continue to be a formidable offensive player in the coming years, but whether he’ll serve as a defensive force could hinge on his position. Machado has been an all-world third baseman throughout his career, yet he prefers shortstop – his primary position in 2018, when he logged minus-13 DRS and minus-6.5 UZR.

The biggest concern with Machado, though, may come down to character. He didn’t leave teams or fans with the best impression during this fall’s postseason, in which he was accused of being a dirty player. He also came under fire in the playoffs for a lack of hustle, including during the Dodgers’ World Series loss to the Red Sox, and admitted to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in mid-October: “Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”

That’s not the mindset a team wants from any of its players, let alone a face-of-the-franchise type. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely to deter some club from awarding the incredibly gifted Machado one of the two biggest pacts in baseball history. For better or worse, he and Harper are primed to occupy a massive chunk of their next teams’ payrolls for several years to come. The question is: Which of the two do you believe has a better chance to live up to his next contract?

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Here is the original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff over the past week…

  • Bryce Harper topped MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, as Tim Dierkes, Jeff Todd, and Steve Adams analyze the top 50 names on the market and try to forecast where each could end up by Opening Day.  The ranking also contains predictions on contract sizes, with Harper (14 years, $420MM) and Manny Machado (13 years, $390MM) each projected to surpass Giancarlo Stanton as the most expensive contract in baseball history.
  • This winter’s edition of the MLBTR Free Agent Tracker was also launched, to help keep track of the status of every single free agent on the open market.
  • Veteran reliever David Robertson will test the free agent market for the second time in his career, though Robertson will this time represent himself in negotiations, rather than deploy an agent.  In exclusive comments to MLBTR, Robertson explained his reasoning behind the unique choice.
  • Over two-thirds of readers polled (67.37%) by Connor Byrne predicted that Clayton Kershaw would be in a Dodgers uniform in 2019.  That prediction ended up being accurate, as while Kershaw could’ve opted out of the remaining two years of his contract and become a free agent, he instead signed a new three-year, $93MM deal that will commit him to Los Angeles for an extra year.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series continued, as we break down what each of the 30 teams has in store for the winter months.  The latest entries focused on the AL Central, as Steve covered the Twins, while Mark Polishuk looked at the Tigers.
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