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2017 Opt-Out Clause Update

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Our most recent opt-out clause update was over two months ago, and plenty of things have changed since then. With the exception of up to two more potential starts for Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, all players with opt-out clauses are done playing for the season. Here’s an update on the decisions these eight players are facing within three days of the final game of the World Series…

Will Opt Out

  • Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Last week, Holland and agent Scott Boras decided that Holland will decline his player option. The news was first reported by Jon Heyman of FanRag, but was already widely expected after a season during which the right-handed closer pitched to a 3.61 ERA with 41 saves for Colorado during the regular season. Holland did fade a bit down the stretch, including a disastrous August during which he posted a 13.50 ERA and allowed a whopping .667 opponent slugging percentage (perhaps due to a drop in velocity). However, Boras blames some of that on fatigue in his first full season back from Tommy John, and there could be some truth to that argument. In any case, he finished strong, posting a strong 1.86 ERA to go along with a 11.17 K/9 in the season’s final month. He’ll likely be issued a $17.4MM qualifying offer, but it’s hard to believe he would accept an amount so close to his player option; it’s a good bet that Holland will reach the open market.

Likely To Opt Out

  • Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Back in late September, Castillo declined to comment on the decision ahead of him. But following a fantastic season during which the O’s catcher hit .282/.323/.490, hit 20 homers in just 365 plate appearances, contributed great defense and improved his pitch framing significantly, Castillo seems all but certain to decline his one-year player option. He mentioned to Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun that he enjoys playing in Baltimore, but if he does, expect it to be on a much more lucrative contract.
  • Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): Since our last update, Upton was traded from the Tigers to the Angels and crushed his way through the end of the season with a .253/.350/.578 batting line and 13 home runs between the two clubs. Fielding metrics remain high on him, and he’s still just 30 years old. While an average annual salary of $22MM might already be fairly close to what he’d earn on the open market, it makes plenty of sense to think he could get a contract longer than four years. The Angels have already been engaged in dialogue with Upton, which seems to suggest that they feel the need to convince him to remain in Los Angeles; that alone might imply that they expect him to opt out. It’s worth noting that he could end up on a more complete team than the Angels as well, which might be added incentive for him to test the market for his services.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s dominant second half (3.77 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.73 K/9, 1.65 BB/9) has continued into a dazzling trio of postseason performances through which he’s allowed just two runs over 20 innings while striking out 18 and holding opponents to a .145 batting average. It looked all but certain at the onset of the season that Tanaka would remain on his current deal, but a surge since the All-Star break has helped boost his earning power significantly. Though Tanaka’s 4.74 ERA during the 2017 regular season looks ugly, much of that can be attributed to a monstrous 21.2% homer/fly ball ratio that’s 5 points higher than his career average. Tanaka is only 28 years old, so at this point it looks as though he would be well-served to opt out of the remaining three years on his deal, or at least leverage his opt-out clause into more guaranteed years from the Yankees.

Unlikely To Opt Out

  • Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): Although Chen was at least able to take the field again since our last update, it would make no sense for him to walk away from the remaining dollars on his deal. The lefty tossed 33 innings across five starts and four relief appearances in September, pitching to a decent 3.82 ERA, but that small sample certainly won’t be enough to establish the value needed to exceed $52MM in guaranteed money. Questions about the health of his elbow only make things worse.
  • Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Nothing to see here. Since our last update, Wieters has somehow played even worse. From mid-August through September, Wieters batted .172/.274/.253, good for a wRC+ of just 41. We expect it won’t take long for the Nats backstop to exercise his option.
  • Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): Even when healthy, Cueto wasn’t his usual self in 2017. His 4.52 ERA and 3.24 BB/9 were the highest marks he’s posted since his rookie season with the Reds in 2008. His 34.6% hard contact rate was a career high, and he allowed 1.34 HR/9 despite pitching in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. He’s on the wrong side of 30, and is now surrounded by questions about the health of his arm. Going into 2017, it seemed as though Cueto would be a good bet to opt out, but now it seems all but certain he’ll remain in San Francisco for the time being. If that wasn’t enough, Cueto addressed his opt-out clause back in late August, stating that “My whole mentality has been for me to stay here,” (hat tip to Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group).

Will Not Opt Out

  • Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): After a season during which he pitched to a 5.38 ERA and was valued below replacement level, Kennedy does not plan to opt out of his current deal. He went as far as to tell Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star that “it would be pretty stupid” if he did. “You don’t go to the free-agent market pitching how I’ve been. No one is going to want that,” Kennedy candidly admitted. The Royals right-hander is 33 years of age and has been bad in his first two years with the Royals, at one point prompting Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron to calculate his negative trade value. During that time, he’s allowed hard contact 38.8% of the time and posted a 5.08 FIP.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a somewhat average first half, the Cincinnati Reds collapsed after the All-Star break and ultimately finished last in the NL Central. The result was a second consecutive 68-94 record and a fourth consecutive losing season. The organization will now need to answer some tough questions, including what they’ll do to improve a historically bad pitching staff, and whether or not they ought to try and sell off some established players like Billy Hamilton.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Overview

With about $68.7MM tied up in payroll commitments for the upcoming season, along with $18MM in projected arbitration salaries, the Cincinnati Reds face limited retooling options for their 2018 roster. Unfortunately for Cincinnati fans, it seems as though the small-market Reds have more holes to fill on their roster than space in the budget. Top prospect Nick Senzel is likely to contribute at some point next season (according to comments made by GM Dick Williams), but he’d only fill a hole in the lineup left by Zack Cozart, who will either depart or become expensive to retain. Within a fiercely competitive division that includes four other teams pushing to contend, it’s unlikely that a few cheap patches will vault the Reds into contention within the NL Central.

Williams has stated that the team is interested in discussing a new deal with Cozart, but the Reds won’t be the only team vying for his services. The Rays, Royals, and Padres are all in need of a shortstop for the long-term. The Orioles could take a look as well, considering incumbent Tim Beckham’s horrid September and relative uncertainty. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in using him at second base as well. His .297/.385/.548 slash line this past season and solid defense made Cozart the fourth-most valuable shortstop in baseball by fWAR. Even if the Reds are willing to shell out the cash needed to keep their All-Star shortstop, there’s still the chance he’d rather play with a more likely contender. If Cozart ends up elsewhere, former top prospect Jose Peraza seems like the best bet to take his place at short.

The first decision the Reds will need to make on Cozart this offseason will be whether or not to issue him a $17.4MM qualifying offer. The rules are different overall this season, but the implications for Cozart and the Reds would likely remain the same. Because the Reds received revenue sharing in 2017, they would gain a compensatory draft pick after the first round of the 2018 draft next June, if Cozart signs a contract with another team worth at least $50MM. The additional pick (and corresponding slot money) would be a great asset to the club’s rebuild. But for the Reds and their limited payroll space, $17.4MM could end up severely handcuffing them in a non-contending season. That salary, along with guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections and league minimum salaries for the rest of the roster, would push their payroll north of $111MM for 2018, which would fall just $4MM short of their 2015 club record payroll. Such a high payroll could hurt the organization’s capacity to fill other holes on the roster through free agency. With Peraza waiting as a shortstop option with some upside, there’s at least a small chance the Reds could decide not to take the risk of giving Cozart a QO.

Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan should be healthy enough in time for spring training to join Luis Castillo and Homer Bailey in a rotation that struggled mightily last year; Reds starters allowed the most homers in baseball and finished with the second-highest ERA and walk rate. Robert Stephenson, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed, Tim Adleman, Amir Garrett and top prospect Tyler Mahle are internal options for the fifth spot in the rotation if the Reds don’t sign anyone. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll be involved in the bidding for a top-tier starter due to their limited payroll space. There’s a chance they could give a three- or four-year contract to a number two or three starter type, but even that seems like a stretch given the risks involved and the fact that they aren’t likely to make the playoffs in the near future. Instead, they might end up exploring veteran options like Jaime Garcia and Andrew Cashner who have some upside and could eat innings for Cincinnati on less expensive contracts.

Outside of Raisel Iglesias, the Reds’ bullpen is still a disaster. After being so bad that they literally set records in 2016, their relievers combined to post the fourth-worst ERA in the majors this past year. 16 relievers pitched at least ten innings for Cincinnati this season, and nobody outside of Iglesias contributed more than 0.50 Win Probability Added (WPA). They’re likely to sign a couple of veterans in free agency, but it’ll be like trying to cover a bullet wound with a band-aid. It’s likely that we’ll see the Reds once again churn through a large number of relievers in hopes that someone will develop into a reliable setup option. Michael Lorenzen will be worth watching; he showed some promise as a multi-inning reliever before collapsing to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in the second half.

Even the lineup isn’t a true strength. Cincinnati finished middle of the pack in most offensive categories, even while playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Most of that lineup will be coming back, but it seems like the Reds will have to hope that high-pedigree hitters Peraza and Jesse Winker can take big steps forward. Even then, it’s not a sure bet that Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler will be able to replicate their 2017 breakout performances. On-base engine Joey Votto will anchor the lineup, but they’d need a lot to break right around him in order to consistently keep up with the runs their pitching staff is likely to allow.

Should the Reds decide to double down on their rebuild, they do have some assets that could help them further strengthen their farm system. Billy Hamilton and Gennett become free agents after the 2019 season. Neither is likely to play October baseball with the Reds before then; many of Cincinnati’s best prospects are still at least two years away, and the money owed to Bailey won’t make things easy on their payroll during that time. I already wrote about a few potential trade partners for Hamilton. Finding a partner for Gennett wouldn’t be too difficult; he’s capable of playing second, third and left field and is coming off the best offensive season of his career (though his continued struggles against lefties could limit his market).

Iglesias is another piece who could bring back a significant haul… recent deals for high-end relievers like Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Ken Giles have all brought back top 100 prospects to the selling teams. Though Iglesias hasn’t yet established himself to the level of Miller or Chapman, it’s easy to see him fetching a return similar to that of Giles.

Breakout infielder Eugenio Suarez could fetch a good return as well. However, since Iglesias and Suarez are both under control for another three seasons, they’re less likely to be traded. Joey Votto could be a trade asset, but his contract has a full no-trade clause, and he’s plainly stated that he doesn’t plan on waiving it.

There’s certainly no guarantee that the Reds will end up trading away Hamilton or Gennett. But if they do, they could look to fill holes in the center and the infield. Phil Ervin and Dilson Herrera are next on the depth chart respectively, but there are some free agent fill-in options as well. Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin and Rajai Davis are examples of free agent center fielders that might get a close look should Hamilton change uniforms. There are a few free agent veterans that could be candidates to fill in as a stopgap at second base until Senzel is ready to take a spot on the big league roster if the team decides to move Gennett, but it seems more likely they would look at internal options or waiver claims.

One big question for the Reds this offseason is whether or not they’ll attempt to unload Bailey’s contract. It’s likely they’d need to eat a significant portion of it even if they do manage to trade him, but it’s possible that a big-budget team might be willing to take a chance on the expensive right-hander. The Phillies, for example, have a lot of payroll space and could afford to take a chance on Bailey rebounding and reestablishing some value. However, it would be difficult to convince any team to take on more than $10MM of his contract. With his value at a low point, the Reds might be best served to open the season with him in the rotation, and hope he can bounce back a bit before the trade deadline. At the very least, he’s better than most of the internal options behind him, and they’d likely spend at least some money on a free agent starter if they traded him, anyway.

It’s difficult to imagine the Reds making any major splashes in free agency. They’ll might sign one or two cheap veteran relievers, but that’s not going to simply fix their bullpen. Perhaps they’ll explore the market for starting pitchers, but unless they manage to retain Cozart, they probably won’t dole out significant money to land a big-name player. Instead, we’ll probably see them make some pitching acquisitions via waiver claim and maybe even the Rule 5 Draft, the latter depending on whether or not they choose to sell off some key pieces.

While the odds are stacked against the Reds posting a winning season in 2018, there are some high-end prospects in their minor league system that are worth being excited about. The next few seasons could prove tough for Cincinnati fans if the Reds choose to have a fire sale, but there’s plenty of upside in the organization, both at the major league level and down on the farm. So, will the Reds tear down their roster even further to supplement that talent? If not, to what extent will they attempt to push through their disadvantages in an effort to win? The Reds’ offseason will be a fun one to track.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Pirates stumbled in 2017, but can bring back much the same core group of talent that was expected to support a contender.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $32MM through 2021 (includes buyouts on club options for 2022 & 2023)
  • Francisco Cervelli, C: $22MM through 2019
  • Starling Marte, OF: $20.5MM through 2019 (includes buyouts on club options for 2020 & 2021)
  • Ivan Nova, SP: $17MM through 2019
  • Josh Harrison, IF: $11.5MM through 2018 (includes buyouts on club options for 2019 & 2020)
  • Daniel Hudson, RP: $5.5MM through 2018
  • Sean Rodriguez, IF/OF: $5MM through 2018
  • David Freese, IF: $4.75MM through 2018 (includes buyout on 2019 club option)
  • Jung Ho Kang, IF: $3MM through 2018 (includes buyout on club option for 2019; will not earn salary unless/until reinstated from restricted list)

Contract Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Pirates Depth Chart; Pirates Payroll Information]

The spending complaints constantly nagging Pirates owner Bob Nutting are unlikely ever really to go away. They reached new heights in a disappointing 2017 campaign, amidst a few eyebrow raising decisions, and will once again feature over the winter.

That said, the Pittsburgh franchise’s well-established financial approach gives us a pretty clear idea of what it has to work with in the offseason to come. The Bucs have not yet topped $100MM in Opening Day salaries, landing just shy of that figure in each of the past two seasons. In all likelihood, that’ll be the general target for 2018.

If that’s the case, GM Neal Huntington — who was extended along with skipper Clint Hurdle at the end of the season — is going to have to get creative to bring in any significant outside additions. With around $60MM in guaranteed money, $20MM in expected arbitration commitments, and $14.5MM to pick up Andrew McCutchen’s option, the team is already pushing last year’s Opening Day payroll without accounting for the rest of the roster.

Of course, it may be that the Pirates won’t pursue any major changes in their roster composition. And the team surely feels it already made some allotments for 2018 and beyond with the midseason additions of Sean Rodriguez and George Kontos.

But that’s not to say there aren’t any areas in need of improvement, or paths to changing the team’s composition. As ever, the chief question is utterly simple and endlessly complex: will this be the stage when the Pirates finally trade their franchise icon?

Dealing McCutchen would remove a key player and major gate draw. It could well stir up a hornet’s nest of controversy. But it also represents a potential opportunity to open significant payroll space and acquire quality young talent in one fell swoop.

Cutch only just turned 31 years of age. While he’s clearly no longer the mega-star he once was, he also just wrapped up a strong season in which he put to rest some of the worst fears after a tepid 2016. McCutchen slashed .279/.363/.486 and launched 28 long balls while playing in over 150 games for the seventh time in eight seasons. He did not exactly excel defensively after moving back to center field, but did improve in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Most rivals would likely consider him a target to fill a corner spot.

Andrew McCutchen (featured)

It’s as difficult as ever to guess at McCutchen’s value. He’s a pure rental now, so it can only be so great. But the appeal is obvious, too: he’s not that old, is a highly respected player with a huge established ceiling, and represents a short-term alternative to an always-risky foray into the long-term contracts of the open market. Huntington & Co. will need to ponder whether there’s a particular combination of cost savings and assets received that will improve the team’s long-term outlook without harming the immediate product too badly. A return centered on lower-level prospects might offer the greatest future value, but could be a difficult move to make with the Pirates having some compelling young talent already playing at the major league level.

If the Pirates seriously consider moving McCutchen, that’d open questions about the outfield mix. Austin Meadows has yet to force his way into the MLB mix, though perhaps the club will anticipate a mid-season arrival from him. Jose Osuna will likely continue to factor, though he’ll need to improve, and the presence of versatile players such as Rodriguez and Adam Frazier will help with a hypothetical transition. Still, it stands to reason that the team would look to add another outfield piece, if not in the deal itself then through a value-seeking free-agent signing.

Otherwise, the position-player mix could largely carry forward in its present state. There could be some excess infielders if Jung Ho Kang finds his way back, though there’s no expectation of that as of yet. Even if he doesn’t, there’s loads of upper-level depth, so the club could even entertain a deal involving Josh Harrison, though that would make for a tough sell and an unfortunate loss of versatility. Some fiddling with the bench is always possible, especially if the Pirates see an interesting name lingering on the open market as Spring Training nears. Mostly, though, the Pirates simply need to hope that Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco restore their trajectories; that Josh Bell expands upon a promising season; that Francisco Cervelli gets healthy; and that the variety of other pieces on hand combine to fill in the gaps.

If there’s one obvious way to attempt to improve on the position-player side, though, it’s likely at short. Jordy Mercer is no longer all that cheap and has not really delivered as a regular at the position in recent years. Pittsburgh could conceivably seek to take advantage of a lack of demand at the position to land Zack Cozart, though he comes with a spotty health record and will be more expensive (and over a longer term) than is Mercer. Buy-low trade targets with future control remaining include Jurickson Profar of the Rangers, Jonathan Villar of the Brewers, and Aledmys Diaz of the Cardinals, though the Pirates have their own rising talents in Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker and therefore might focus mostly on 2018. The Bucs could also conceivably serve as a landing spot for Jose Iglesias or Adeiny Hechavarria, though both figure to cost nearly as much as Mercer. Pittsburgh could instead seek greater value in free agency, which features a variety of veterans — J.J. Hardy and Alcides Escobar among them — that will likely end up settling for affordable deals.

Less likely, but also hypothetically plausible, would be a move to reduce costs behind the dish. The catching position is thin enough leaguewide that some other teams might be willing to take on Cervelli’s contract, even though he has been a below-average offensive producer over the past two years and managed only 81 games in an injury-plagued 2017 season. The Bucs would have alternatives, including giving more time to Elias Diaz, picking up the cheap option over Chris Stewart, and signing one of the many veteran free agents that seem likely to settle for relatively marginal guarantees on short-term deals.

Beyond the ever-present Cutch question, though, perhaps the most intriguing trade possibilities surround righty Gerrit Cole. Though the 27-year-old power pitcher stumbled to a career-worst 4.26 ERA, due largely to a big jump in homers (31), he still carries an ace’s arsenal and a history of quality results. Plus, Cole took the ball for 33 starts and 203 innings last year.

Outside interest will be robust, and could even be strong enough to pique the Pirates’ interest, though moving Cole would arguably create an even tougher hole to patch than any such action regarding McCutchen. Pittsburgh’s rotation produced more hand-wringing than its middle-of-the-pack performance might suggest, and there’s plenty of talent in the mix, but there’s also no question that removing Cole would slice away a good bit of the staff’s upside and floor. Unless Huntington can engineer a slam-dunk deal to acquire a quality and controllable position player who’d step into everyday duties, it’s tough to see how such a transaction could make sense for the Pirates (or any hypothetical trade partners).

Otherwise, the rotation seems likely to closely resemble its 2017 form. Ivan Nova continues to look like a strong value. Jameson Taillon will hope to line up his results with his peripherals after putting testicular cancer in the rear-view mirror. Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams were each useful through over 150 frames in 2017; while their outlooks aren’t crystal clear, both at least profile as affordable sources of innings. And there are other interesting arms pressing for longer looks. Tyler Glasnow leads a list that also includes Steven Brault and Nick Kingham. That’s quite a lot of affordable and flexible (i.e., optionable) depth, even if most of the hurlers have yet to establish themselves fully (or at all) in the majors.

If the Pirates are to look for veteran pitching reclamation projects this winter, Tyler Chatwood has the features (velocity, groundball production) that has held appeal to the team in the past. But he will likely also draw attention from other organizations and will perhaps be more costly than the Pirates prefer given their existing slate of options. But there’s no shortage of other notable players that will be looking for an opportunity — ranging from Chris Tillman to hurlers such as Hector Santiago, Tyson Ross, and Ubaldo Jimenez — and will likely be available for quite a bit less. Should the team find an appealing target at a good price, it’s even possible that it could market one of its controllable starters to address another need.

Generally, though, the front office’s focus could land more on finding relief arms than on bolstering the rotation. The Bucs oversaw the full emergence last year of Felipe Rivero, but otherwise face quite a few questions in the relief corps. Daniel Hudson will hope to improve in the second year of his deal. Kontos gives the team another established arm at a reasonable price. A.J. Schugel produced excellent results, though they outstripped his peripherals, while the club also worked in younger pitchers such as Johnny Barbato and Dovydas Neverauskas. Still, with late-inning stalwarts Juan Nicasio and Tony Watson now out of the picture, there’s clearly room for additions. Just how much cash the Pirates have to dole out will no doubt depend upon how the team decides to proceed in the areas discussed above.

Fan scrutiny of the Pirates is plenty understandable. But those faithful to the Jolly Roger shouldn’t lose hope prematurely, as there’s still the makings of a quality core in place in Pittsburgh. While uncertainty still weighs on the club’s 2018 outlook, it’s also not difficult to imagine several paths to fielding a quality outfit once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

A disastrous 2017 season could have the Giants looking for some big moves this winter to try and spur a quick return to contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Buster Posey, C: $85.6MM through 2021 ($22MM club option for 2022 with $3MM buyout)
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $84MM through 2021 ($22MM club option for 2022 with $5MM buyout — Cueto can opt out of contract and receive buyout within three days after conclusion of 2017 World Series)
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $64MM through 2021
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $60MM through 2021
  • Jeff Samardzija, SP: $54MM through 2020
  • Mark Melancon, RP: $38MM through 2020 (can opt out of deal after 2018 season)
  • Hunter Pence, OF: $18.5MM through 2018
  • Denard Span, OF: $9MM through 2018 ($12MM mutual option for 2019 with $4MM buyout)
  • Matt Moore, SP: $9MM through 2018 ($10MM club option for 2019 with $750K buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

  • Matt Cain, SP: $21MM club option for 2018, $7.5MM buyout (option will be bought out, with Cain heading into retirement)
  • Madison Bumgarner, SP: $12MM club option for 2018 ($1.5MM buyout)
  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B: Minimum salary club options for 2018 and 2019 if Sandoval is still on MLB roster at season’s end (the Red Sox will pay the prorated remainder of $41MM owed through 2019)

Free Agents

San Francisco Giants Depth Chart; San Francisco Giants Payroll Information

After investing heavily in free agent signings and lucrative extensions for homegrown players over the last two offseasons, the Giants watched in dismay as virtually all of those core pieces underachieved in 2017.  It all added up to a shocking 64-98 record, the worst performance by a San Francisco team since the 1985 squad lost 100 games.

While it isn’t likely that another Murphy’s Law type of season will happen again, there are enough questions surrounding the club’s veteran core that standing pat isn’t an option.  The Giants can be pretty confident that they’ll get more than 111 innings from Madison Bumgarner, though they can hardly be sure that all of Johnny Cueto, Mark Melancon and Brandon Belt will be healthy, or that Brandon Crawford and Matt Moore will both return to form.

Some changes are clearly necessary to upgrade a team that finished near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, including last in homers and OPS and second-to-last in runs and on-base percentage.  San Francisco was also one of the league’s worst defensive teams, and recent comments from GM Bobby Evans indicate that the front office is looking to re-establish itself as a pitching-and-defense team first, without selling out that core identity in a pursuit of power hitters.

The outfield is the clearest area of concern, as left field was a revolving door all season and Denard Span and Hunter Pence combined for just 1.9 fWAR as the regulars in center and right field.  Defensive metrics haven’t been kind to Span’s center field glovework for years, while Pence’s work in right field has traditionally received above-average UZR/150 grades but below-average marks in terms of Defensive Runs Saved.  Since neither player has a strong throwing arm, the Giants are in a tough spot of having two high-priced outfielders best suited for a move to left field.

A free agent like Lorenzo Cain would be a great fit for the Giants’ needs, as the long-time Royal brings a major defensive upgrade to center field and some right-handed balance to the lineup.  Even if a big name like Cain is brought in to handle center field, however, simply going with Span and Pence in the corners may not be a recipe for success.  The outfield mix could be shaken up entirely with a big trade or two.

As of late August, the Giants were the team with the most interest in Giancarlo Stanton, who is a logical trade candidate for a Marlins team that seems poised for another payroll cut.  Stanton has clearly stated that he doesn’t want to be part of another Marlins rebuild, so his no-trade clause probably wouldn’t be an issue, especially since the California native is reportedly open to a move back to the west coast.  It also stands to reason that the Giants would ask Miami about Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, with Yelich perhaps being the best fit since he can play center field (even if the defensive metrics weren’t enamored with his glovework in 2017).

All three outfielders would come with big asking prices, and given the Giants’ thin farm system, other teams are better equipped to sway the Marlins with a package of prospects.  Stanton may cost the least in terms of players and prospects if a suitor is willing to absorb a significant chunk of the ten years and $295MM remaining on the slugger’s contract (provided Stanton doesn’t opt out after the 2020 season).

The lack of prospects won’t help the Giants in trade talks with the Marlins or other teams with outfielders for sale, and signing Cain or another expensive outfielder in free agency may also be tricky since the Giants have already made a number of long-term commitments.  San Francisco has at least $100MM in payroll on the books through the 2020 season, and that isn’t counting the possibility of an extension with Bumgarner.  Between guaranteed deals, projected arbitration payouts and the no-brainer pick-up of Bumgarner’s club option, the Giants have roughly $170MM committed to 16 players next year, putting them in danger of surpassing the $197MM luxury tax threshold.

While the Giants have slightly exceeded the tax limit in each of the past two seasons, they’ll face a larger penalty for repeated overages under the new collective bargaining agreement.  Like every other team in the game, the Giants also surely want to be under the tax limit to clear their path for next winter and the star-laden 2018-19 free agent class.

(One big salary could still potentially come off the books if Cueto exercises his opt-out clause after the World Series.  That said, it’s hard to fathom that Cueto would walk away from a four-year/$84MM guarantee after a season that saw him limited to 147 1/3 IP due to a minor flexor strain and blister issues.)

An existing contract could be moved as part of a trade, either as partial salary relief for someone like Stanton or simply to dump some money on a team willing to absorb a large contract in exchange for some young talent.  Complicating this strategy, of course, is that so many of the highest-paid Giants have either full (Melancon, Pence, Crawford, Buster Posey) or partial (Belt, Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija) no-trade clauses, and the club obviously isn’t going to deal cornerstones like Posey or Bumgarner.  The likes of Span or Joe Panik could become viable trade candidates almost by default since they’re two of the few notable Giants that can be freely dealt.

Span’s trade value is questionable, with a $9MM salary due in 2018 and so-so numbers last year.  If he was traded and the Giants acquired an established center fielder, they could go with internal options in left field (Jarrett Parker, Austin Slater, Mac Williamson and Gorkys Hernandez, plus top prospect Chris Shaw).  While Slater and Shaw are promising youngsters, it could be a tough call to entrust the position to unproven players, especially since San Francisco got so little out of its left fielders in 2017.

Moving Panik would open a hole at second base, though there is some question as to whether Panik is a long-term answer for the Giants at the keystone (Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News recently examined the idea of Panik as a trade chip).  The second baseman is entering arbitration eligibility for the first time and has posted solid numbers when healthy, though Panik’s history of concussions is a big concern, particularly for a Giants club that has already invested in a first baseman with similar health problems.

Speaking of Belt, he hit well when he was able to play in 2017, but his season was cut short in early August after he suffered the fourth documented concussion of his career.  There have been rumblings that manager Bruce Bochy would be open to a change at first base, though Belt’s health issues and the $64MM owed to him through 2021 don’t help his trade value.  (Plus, as noted earlier, Belt has partial no-trade protection in the form of a ten-team no-trade list.)

Elsewhere around the infield, Crawford is hoping for a rebound after a down season at the plate (which could possibly have been influenced by much more serious off-the-field concerns).  Third base is wide open, with Pablo Sandoval on hand as a veteran option and top prospect Christian Arroyo battling to win the job or at least earn a platoon role.

With this much uncertainty, a multi-positional infielder would be a good fit, and old friend Eduardo Nunez seems like a logical target in free agency.  Assuming the Giants don’t make the bold move of shopping Arroyo, Nunez’s versatility doesn’t outright block Arroyo at third base, whereas signing a Mike Moustakas would lock up the position over the long term (and, again, further muddy the luxury tax outlook).  A player like Nunez would get the bulk of third base time and, if Arroyo did break out, Nunez could be shifted all around the diamond rather than create a logjam at the position.

Todd Frazier would also make sense as a third base signing, as he wouldn’t require too long a deal and he could also shift over to first in the event that Belt again misses time.  (Acquiring an outfielder who can play first base would also help in this regard.)  Posey will also get his usual share of time at first in order to keep him fresh, though he is firmly ensconced behind the plate for the foreseeable future. Nick Hundley is a free agent, and there is mutual interest in a reunion between the two sides, so he’s probably the favorite for the backup catching job in 2018 unless he gets offered more playing time elsewhere.

Turning to the rotation, San Francisco has one of baseball’s best one-two punches (when healthy) in Bumgarner and Cueto.  Samardzija still hasn’t taken the step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation pitcher, though he has been durable and generally solid in his two years with the team.  The Giants already exercised their $9MM club option on Moore for next season, hoping the southpaw can return to his 2016 form after a rough 2017 season.

Ty Blach and Chris Stratton are the top choices for the fifth starter’s job, and with such inexperienced options in the mix and Moore coming off such a shaky year, the Giants could stand to bolster the back end of their pitching staff.  Like every other team in the game, the Giants have an interest in Shohei Otani, though they’ll be limited to offering him a $300K deal (due to exceeding international signing bonus limits in the past) and they don’t have a DH spot to offer the two-way star.

Barring a win in the Otani sweepstakes, the Giants could turn to the free agent market for veterans willing to sign a short-term deal, perhaps to rebuild their value pitching at AT&T Park.  Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, Doug Fister, or Ubaldo Jimenez fit this description, or perhaps Bartolo Colon would like to spend what is probably his final season playing for a potential contender.  CC Sabathia is already in the midst of a career renaissance, though the Bay Area native stands out as an intriguing target if he wants to make a homecoming.  On the trade front, San Francisco could again look for short-term veteran arms or perhaps go bigger by asking about a controllable young starter (i.e. Julio Teheran, Jake Odorizzi).  The latter option, of course, could again by limited by the Giants’ relative lack of available young talent.

The Giants’ bullpen was a problem area last year, thanks in large part to Melancon’s injury-plagued season and Will Smith missing the whole year recovering from Tommy John surgery.  The pen will improve simply by dint of those two relievers being back in the mix (Smith is tentatively expected to return in May), joining the right-handed trio of Cory Gearrin, Hunter Strickland and Sam Dyson atop the bullpen depth chart.  I’d expect San Francisco to target at least one more left-handed reliever given Smith’s status.  The team could shop on the free-agent market for one southpaw (e.g. Tony Watson, Brian Duensing, Jake McGee) and then turn to internal options (such as Josh Osich, Steven Okert or Blach) for further left-handed depth.

With so much talent on hand and big contracts on the books, the Giants don’t really have any choice but to try and compete in 2018.  As the Tigers or the pre-rebuild Phillies could tell you, this can be a dangerous spot for a team, though a teardown would also seem awfully hasty.  The Giants’ front office faces a challenge in fixing a roster that they didn’t at all think was broken heading into 2017, and it remains to be seen if the team is just one or two additions away from contending or if a more thorough roster shuffle is coming.

An Early Look At The Cardinals’ Search For A Closer

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As the Cardinals made a late push at a postseason spot this year, it seemed the club had finally sorted things out in the ninth inning — and done so for 2018 as well. Trevor Rosenthal, once the team’s lock-down closer, had rediscovered and even improved upon his former form.

The sense of certainty did not lost long. The grim UCL reaper came for the powerful righty in late August, knocking him out for most or all of the 2018 campaign. Whatever hope Rosenthal may have of returning late in the season to come, it likely won’t be sufficient for the team to tender him a contract at the projected rate of $7.9MM.

Seung-hwan Oh had taken over closing duties for Rosenthal when he faltered in 2016, but Oh himself stumbled last year and is in any event now a free agent. Brett Cecil rebounded from an ugly start to his time in St. Louis, especially in the peripherals, but was never really given a look in that role. Tyler Lyons turned in an exciting season but made way for Juan Nicasio, who was acquired despite the fact that he was not eligible for the postseason. And young flamethrower Sandy Alcantara continues to show eye-popping talent, but likely won’t be entrusted with such a key role early in 2018 after exhibiting some walk issues during his first MLB stint last year.

All said, it’s rather clear that the Cardinals will be looking for an outside acquisition to secure late-inning victories. The team’s leadership largely acknowledges as much, as Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Looking around the rest of baseball, it’s hard to identify any other team with such an evident need in the 9th. Among hopeful contenders, there are a few other clubs with potential openings — the Cubs, Twins, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Angels, especially — though some of those organizations may well look to internal options. Other organizations will consider adding high-leverage relievers, even if they already have ninth-inning options penciled in, so there is other competition. But the need for an established closer is more acute in St. Louis than anywhere else.

As the Cards begin mapping out an offseason strategy, here are some of the names they might be weighing:

Free Agents

Despite expressing a general aversion to “pay[ing] retail for closers,” GM Mike Girsch acknowledges a need to “evaluate the brand-name closers in the market.”

  • Wade Davis has emerged as the top target, as he carried a 2.30 ERA through the regular season and has come up big thus far in the postseason. Davis is still pumping mid-nineties heat, even if it isn’t quite at his peak, and set a career high with a 15.4% swinging-strike rate.
  • Greg Holland did not quite hold his edge for the entirety of a bounceback season, though surely his extensive absence also played a role. Holland also drew swings and misses on more than 15% of the pitches he threw despite a more significant velocity drop than Davis has experienced to this point. Though he got he job done for most of the year at altitude, Holland did end with a less-than-dominant 3.61 ERA.
  • Addison Reed stepped into the closer’s role for the Mets before his mid-season trade to the Red Sox and has plenty of high-leverage experience in his career. He has yet to reach 29 years of age and, unlike the prior two names on this list, brings elite control to the table and also set a personal best with a 13.7% swinging-strike rate. There’s certainly a case to be made that Reed represents a more palatable long-term investment and can be trusted to handle the ninth.
  • Juan Nicasio, as noted, ended up taking a surprising route to Cards late in the season. He ended up saving four games in 11 strong innings. Over the course of the year, Nicasio led the National League with 76 appearances and carried a 2.61 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While the converted starter has relatively minimal experience in the late innings, he might represent a more budget-friendly possibility.

There are other free agents with ample late-inning experience, including Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Koji Uehara, and Sergio Romo. Those and others could obviously be considered by the Cards, but likely wouldn’t be added with closing duties in mind.

One-Year Rentals

The Cards will surely also look into trade possibilities. With Alcantara and other good arms on the rise, though, perhaps the focus will be on shoring things up for 2018 rather than securing a longer-term piece (at a much higher price, no doubt).

  • Kelvin Herrera could represent an interesting target. The Royals dealt Davis away last year for a talented player (Jorge Soler) who had fallen out of favor with his contending team. St. Louis has quite a few intriguing assets (Aledmys Diaz, first and foremost) that could fit a similar description. Herrera is just 27 years old but will be entering his final season of arb control at a projected $8.3MM. He’s also coming off of a tepid 2017 season in which he managed only a 4.25 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 while permitting a sudden jump in home runs (1.37 per nine on a 14.5% HR/FB rate). Herrera is still throwing pure heat but did slip to an 11.5% swinging-strike rate. And some late-season forearm issues are a bit concerning from the perspective of an acquiring organization.
  • Zach Britton might also be a one-year bounceback target, though he could be in line for a $12.2MM payday and had some fairly worrying health and performance issues in 2017. Plus, the O’s presently insist they aren’t interested in dealing him. There’s still time for that stance to change, however, and the Cards would be one of many teams that could dream on a revived Britton. Teammate Brad Brach is also a quality late-inning arm and is set to earn just $5.2MM, though as with Britton it remains unclear whether he’ll truly be available at any kind of reasonable price.

Multi-Year Assets

While price tags figure to remain high for sought-after young relievers, there are quite a few interesting names to consider.

  • Brad Hand is earning a reasonable $3.8MM in his second-to-last season of arb control. Though the  Padres’ 27-year-old only just stepped into the closer’s role in the middle of 2017, that change didn’t seem to bother the breakout reliever, who worked to a 2.16 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over a healthy 79 1/3 frames. Hand can work deep and deliver top-line results, though his status as one of the game’s best southpaws will no doubt also lead to broad interest.
  • Raisel Iglesias continues to dominate and is still 27 years old. The Reds hurler will earn $4.5MM this year, as his contract calls for, and will likely opt into arbitration beginning in 2018 — when his salary figures to ramp up quite a bit. Still, with control through 2021, Iglesias has huge value. Plus, he may yet be on the come, as he boosted both his average fastball velo and swinging-strike rate in 2017.
  • Alex Colome will take home a projected $5.5MM from the Rays with two more years of control remaining. It’s still not clear what kind of course Tampa Bay will take this winter; though it seems more likely than not that the team will keep trying to contend, it’s still possible that Colome will be shopped around a bit. The 28-year-old failed to sustain his 2016 breakout, though, tallying a 3.24 ERA with a pedestrian 7.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 66 2/3 innings.
  • Arodys Vizcaino has had plenty of ups and downs for the Braves, who may prefer simply to hold onto him rather than trying to secure what may not be an exciting return. But Vizcaino did manage a 2.83 ERA last year while closing 14 games, so could hold appeal. He is slated to earn something in the realm of $3.7MM and can also be tendered arbitration for 2019, so there’s also somewhat less contractual upside than with some of the other pitchers discussed here — perhaps lowering the ask on Viz. In his favor? A blistering 98 mph heater and career-best 14.7% swinging-strike rate. Beyond questions about his ability to reliably handle closing duties for a full season, we’ll also need to wait to see what course the Braves take once their current front-office mess is resolved.
  • Dellin Betances could be an intriguing buy-low target if the Yankees decide to move on. While he has often been absurdly dominant, Betances showed a concerning loss of the strike zone down the stretch and into the postseason. But his overwhelming stuff and upside are undeniable. With a projected $4.4MM arb salary and another year of control, he’d draw big interest despite the struggles. Of course, there’s also good reason for New York to hold and hope for a rebound, and the risk may be too great for a team like the Cards to trust the ninth to Betances coming out of camp.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has also reported that the Cards have some interest in right-hander Yoshihisa Hirano — the longtime closer for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes. It seems unlikely that a big league club would sign the free agent and immediately hand him the keys to the ninth inning, though if he impresses early in his MLB tenure he could emerge as a closing option, as Oh did in his 2016 debut campaign.

There are a few other young names that could conceivably enter the mix here — most notably Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays, Edwin Diaz of the Mariners, and perhaps the Phillies’ Hector Neris. But all indications are that there’s no significant likelihood of these players being moved; Toronto and Seattle insist they will try again to contend, while the Phils probably won’t have much motivation to part with a pre-arb relief talent as their competitive window begins to re-open.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

As they continued to build back from a full roster teardown, the Phillies finished the 2017 season with a 66-96 record, good for last in the NL East. But their rebuilding process has begun to bear fruit. Thanks in part to contributions from some exciting young rookies, Philadelphia finished the season strong by posting a winning record in September (15-13). The team is now free of the veteran encumbrances that trailed its last competitive window, so it’ll face some questions on how to allocate financial resources.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $26.4MM through 2021 ($11.5MM club option for 2022, $2.5MM buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

[Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart; Philadelphia Phillies Payroll Overview]

The Phillies already announced in late September that Pete Mackanin will not return as manager in 2018, but will instead assume a role in the front office. Part of the organization’s focus this offseason will be to find a replacement manager who can get the most out of a very young group of players as they develop at the major-league level. Based on their record after the All-Star break (37-38), it seems as though the worst could finally be behind the Phillies after five consecutive losing seasons. Whoever GM Matt Klentak hires as Mackanin’s replacement will likely be managing the next contending team in Philadelphia.

In addition to steps forward for players like Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr and Aaron Nola, the Phillies also saw impressive contributions from many players promoted during the 2017 season. Rhys Hoskins, Andrew Knapp, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams all showed well in their first taste of major-league action, with Hoskins in particular looking like a star. Stud shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford saw some playing time in September as well; it’s widely expected that he and fellow infield top prospect Scott Kingery will make major contributions at some point in 2018. Put simply, a major-league club that saw a lot of success from young players this year will see even more reinforcements next season. It’s also worth wondering whether the Phillies will make a push to extend some of these young players. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd already mentioned Nola as an extension candidate. Beyond him, Altherr, Hoskins and Williams have all shown enough talent to be worth a look.

As the youth movement reaches its peak in Philadelphia, the payroll has reached its valley. The only contract on the books for the Phillies in 2018 is that of Herrera, who stands to make just $3.35MM. They owe $3.5MM more in the form of buyouts and debts to former players, for a total of less than $6MM guaranteed dollars. Beyond that, only five of their players are even eligible for arbitration, and most of them are either potential trade fodder or non-tender candidates. Given that the Phillies have averaged over $144MM in payroll over the past seven seasons, a big decisions facing the Phillies this winter is how they ought to allocate their dollars. It’s worth mentioning that they’ve got the payroll space and prospect depth to acquire Giancarlo Stanton, should the organization decide he’s a good fit. It will be interesting to see whether they give out any long-term contracts to free agents this season, or opt to make shorter commitments now and wait until next season when the market is flush with high-end talent. They’ll be one of the few teams who’ll be able to afford the services of 2018 free agent juggernauts like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon, any of whom might be worth waiting to negotiate with.

It’s possible that one or both of Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez will open the 2018 season in a different uniform. Galvis stands to make around $7.4MM in arbitration this offseason. Rather than pay that hefty figure for a shortstop with a .287 career OBP, the Phillies would probably prefer to see what they have in top prospect J.P. Crawford. While Hernandez is still under control for three more seasons, the Phillies will likely try to get a look at Kingery at some point in 2018. This could make Hernandez a potential trade asset as well, if the right offer comes along. With such a minuscule payroll, however, they certainly won’t face any pressure to move either player.

With a high-upside youngster tabbed for each position on the diamond, the Phillies are most likely to concentrate their financial resources on pitching. Their starters as a group finished in the bottom third of baseball in ERA last season, and their young staff could benefit from having a seasoned veteran in the rotation. They have the money to spend on a top-of-the market starter like Jake Arrieta, if the front office wants to be aggressive, or any other open-market hurler that holds appeal. Another option would be to make a big push for the coveted Shohei Otani. Indeed there are 29 other teams that will be doing the same, but the potential to join an organization with such a bright future could be a draw for the Japanese phenom. The Phillies will probably want to add a couple of veteran arms to their bullpen as well. Adam Morgan had an incredible second half and cemented himself as a clear fixture behind Hector Neris, but overall the relief corps is in need of support.

Philadelphia had some success last year in taking on bad contracts, eating the salaries of those players and then flipping them for prospects. They acquired left-hander McKenzie Mills for Howie Kendrick, and got infielder Jose Gomez along with right-handers J.D. Hammer and Alejandro Requena in a trade that sent Pat Neshek to the Rockies. Mills, Gomez and Hammer all currently rank within the Phillies’ top 30 prospects (via MLB Pipeline), with Gomez leading the way at #16 in the organization. In essence, the Phillies used their financial muscle to “buy” some upside prospects. It’s a sound strategy. If any of these prospects pan out, it will be as though the Phillies used their extra payroll space last year to save money in the future; more cost-controlled players on the major league club means fewer dollars spent on free agents. It’s easy to imagine the club employing the same strategy during the coming season.

Following five losing seasons and a complete teardown of the major-league roster, the Phillies’ farm is stacked. Even after promoting three top-100 overall prospects last season in Hoskins, Crawford and Alfaro, their system still has four more in Mickey Moniak, Sixto Sanchez, Adam Haseley and Kingery. They also own the #3 overall pick in 2018’s June amateur draft. This abundance of talent in the minors will give the Phillies a wealth of options when they decide to make a playoff push, including the ability to use some of these youngsters as trade chips to fill holes on the roster with established major league talent.

As it stands right now, the Phillies will open the 2018 season with Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation. Behind Nola, however, likely follows a messy group of struggling youngsters. Ben Lively, Mark Leiter, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Jake Thompson and Nick Pivetta all endured major ups and downs last season. Even if they don’t manage to add an elite starter like Arrieta through free agency, they’ll probably opt to sign at least one or two mid-tier options. Jason Vargas, Scott Feldman, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister and Andrew Cashner all come to mind as pitchers who could probably be had on short-term contracts.

With veteran Andres Blanco set to depart in free agency, the Phillies will need a backup infielder to open the season. Blanco himself could be brought back at a cheap price, but he performed below replacement level last year. Outside of Kingery, Philadelphia’s farm system doesn’t really have any major league-ready middle infield options. Stephen Drew, Erick Aybar, Danny Espinosa and Eric Sogard are some examples of cheap veterans they could use to fill in around the infield. On the other hand, they might simply opt to make a low-profile minor league signing instead. They could even test their luck with the Rule 5 Draft; they had great success in identifying Herrera in 2014 and could try to strike gold again.

Third baseman Maikel Franco had a tremendously disappointing 2017 campaign, and it might be time to start looking for other long-term options at the hot corner.  Mike Moustakas represents the top option on this year’s free agent market. Todd Frazier is another third baseman they could look into. However, since the Phillies would be considered long shots to contend in 2018, they might be better off giving the 25-year old another chance next season, and explore the free agent market next year if he doesn’t bounce back. At that time, superstars Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson will become available for bidding.

The Phillies will be an interesting team to watch this offseason. They have the financial resources to sign big-name free agents and take on a large contract in a trade, but it’s just as easy to imagine them making only small, short term signings while they continue to evaluate high-upside youngsters at the MLB level. Either way, expect the Phillies to improve on their 2017 record next season. With the wealth of young talent in the organization, the club should be on the rise for several years to come.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

In what most expected to be another transitional season, the Brewers spent much of the year in contention for the NL Central title and finished just shy of an NL Wild Card berth. With an 86-76 record under their belts and a promising core of controllable players, the Brewers will no longer enter the offseason with a “rebuilding” label and will instead likely add pieces with an eye toward winning in 2018 and beyond.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ryan Braun, OF: $57MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 option)
  • Eric Thames, 1B/OF: $12MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (Service time in parenthesis; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Milwaukee Brewers Depth Chart | Milwaukee Brewers Payroll Outlook]

General manager David Stearns and his staff caught some flak from Brewers fans this summer for not acting more aggressively to add pieces to a surprising contender. While flipping prospects Ryan Cordell and Eric Hanhold to add a pair of solid veteran rentals (Swarzak and Walker) definitely strengthened the roster, the division-rival Cubs went for broke and shelled out multiple top prospects for Jose Quintana, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. It’s possible that had the Brewers splurged in similar fashion, adding Quintana or Sonny Gray, that they could’ve emerged as the NL Central champs, but Stearns & Co. steadfastly refused to part with top-echelon prospects — most notably center field prospect Lewis Brinson. Now, they’ll spend the offseason looking for long-term help while holding onto the luxury of plugging Brinson and other top prospects into the lineup in the near future.

Starting on the position-player side of the equation, the Brewers made several then-unheralded moves in the 2016-17 offseason that now look to have helped form a solid nucleus. Manny Pina enjoyed a breakout behind the plate and should at the very least be in an even timeshare with Stephen Vogt (or another veteran backstop should Vogt be non-tendered). Eric Thames cooled after a Cinderella start to his comeback season in MLB, but his overall numbers were strong. Jesus Aguilar, a waiver claim out of the Indians organization last winter, gives Thames an affordable platoon partner. Travis Shaw, meanwhile, was deemed expendable by the Red Sox with Rafael Devers on the horizon and instead broke out as one of the NL’s best third basemen after the Brewers acquired him in a December trade.

Top prospect Orlando Arcia showed quite well at shortstop as the season wore on, and the Brewers will return Braun and Domingo Santana as corner outfield options with plenty of pop. (Thames, too, can play some corner outfield.) Keon Broxton saw the bulk of the time in center field in 2017 and could be reinstalled there to open the 2018 season if the Brewers want to play some service time games with Brinson. But center field should go to Brinson by midseason, assuming good health, so it’s possible that the Brewers will look to shop Broxton this summer. His 37 percent strikeout clip is an eyesore, but Broxton has plenty of speed and power, and he handles center field well enough. Brett Phillips gives the Brew Crew another option in center, should they ultimately move Broxton, or he could simply spell Braun, Broxton and Santana in a semi-regular role.

The biggest question mark for the Brewers, then, is at second base. Jonathan Villar had a breakout 2016 season, but the Brewers likely feel as though they dodged a bullet when Villar reportedly rejected a contract extension last offseason. The 26-year-old’s strikeout woes returned stronger than ever in 2017, and he hit just .241/.293/.372 in 436 PAs. Veteran Eric Sogard saw plenty of action at second base as Villar lost playing time, and Walker stepped in and hit well there following his acquisition. With both Walker and Sogard set to hit the open market, the Brewers will need to decide whether they can once again trust Villar or if external reinforcements are needed.

Re-signing Sogard to an affordable one-year deal could provide some insurance, but the Brewers must now also think more like a contender. If there’s an obvious hole to fill, they’ll likely covet more certainty. Milwaukee had interest in Ian Kinsler before the non-waiver deadline, and he’s all but certain to be traded by the Tigers this winter. Re-signing Walker would be more expensive than retaining Sogard, though he’d bring more reliable production. Other free-agent options are fairly thin, though Howie Kendrick and Eduardo Nunez could stabilize the spot. The trade front is more interesting, where Philadelphia’s Cesar Hernandez and Miami’s Dee Gordon will both be available. Gordon is owed $38MM over the next three seasons, but the Brewers can afford to take on some significant financial commitments this winter.

It’s also worth mentioning that Braun’s name figures to once again surface in trade rumors at least occasionally this offseason. However, he’s coming off his worst season since 2014 and has full veto power over any trades (to say nothing of the $57MM he’s still owed through 2020). A deal doesn’t seem particularly likely.

On the pitching front, things are far less clear for the Brewers. Emergent ace Jimmy Nelson will miss a yet-unreported amount of time in 2018 following shoulder surgery. That leaves Chase Anderson and Zach Davies as the two locks for rotation spots. Brent Suter performed well in 14 starts, but he’s averaged just 124 1/3 innings across the past three seasons. Relying on him for 170+ frames would be difficult, but he’ll certainly be in next year’s rotation mix. Righty Brandon Woodruff showed flashes of potential but didn’t cement himself, while Junior Guerra posted terrible numbers in his followup to his out-of-the-blue rookie success at age 31. Touted prospect Josh Hader shined in the bullpen, but the lefty will likely get a look as a starter next year.

The Brewers look as though they’ll need to add at least one established starter, and making a second, smaller-scale addition wouldn’t be unwise. One glance at the “guaranteed contracts” section above is evidence that they could afford to spend as aggressively as they wish this offseason, though the team’s lower payroll ceiling creates less margin for error when shelling out cash to a Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish. Second-tier names like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn seem much more plausible, though their last foray into that price range (Garza) didn’t pan out.

Alternatively, the Brewers have an exceptionally deep farm — deep enough that they can acquire both one-year rentals and more controllable options. Given the Brewers’ questionable on-paper rotation, relatively blank payroll slate and wealth of prospects, there are literally dozens of scenarios on which to potentially speculate. Suffice it to say — they’ll be connected to a plethora of arms this winter.

The Milwaukee bullpen brings a bit more clarity. Corey Knebel broke out as one of the game’s most dominant relievers, posting baseball’s fourth-highest strikeout percentage and second-highest K/9 rate in 2017. His walk rate is still troublesome, but Knebel functioned as a genuinely elite bullpen weapon in his record-setting 2017 season (most consecutive relief appearances with at least one strikeout). If Hader isn’t in the rotation, he’ll be back in the bullpen, pairing with Knebel to create a formidable duo. Jacob Barnes and Jared Hughes should return as additional right-handed options. Jeffress is a fan favorite in Milwaukee and showed improvement after returning in a July 31 trade, but his overall output makes less certain to be brought back. I’d still expect him to be tendered, though perhaps at a lower rate than the projected $2.6MM sum, as our algorithm doesn’t factor in context such as Jeffress’ off-the-field issues.

Swarzak was terrific after being acquired from the White Sox, so a potential reunion with him is something the Brewers will surely explore. Milwaukee also needs to add at least one left-handed reliever — if not two, depending on what happens with Hader. The Brewers were without a southpaw reliever for much of the year and certainly would prefer to have greater matchup flexibility in 2018 and beyond. Tyler Webb is one intriguing internal option, and the free-agent market bears names such as Jake McGee, Brian Duensing and Tony Watson. As ever, the trade market will be rife with options in this department, though Brad Hand stands out as the likeliest name to be bandied about on the rumor mill this winter.

An oft-overlooked component of the offseason among fans is the possibility of extending core pieces. While many focus on what pieces can be added to a contending core (or shipped off of a rebuilding roster), the Brewers are in a strong position to obtain some cost certainty and perhaps some additional club control over long-term cornerstones. After trying to do with Villar last winter, they’ll likely try once again with other targets as Spring Training nears in 2018. Arcia, Shaw and Davies all make sense as candidates for a long-term pact. Anderson does as well, to a lesser extent. He’s already controlled through his age-32 season, but the club could try to buy out his arbitration years in one fell swoop and possibly tack on a club option over his age-33 season in exchange for the up-front payday. As a late bloomer, he could be more amenable to that type deal than some younger arms would be.

The Brewers enter the 2017-18 offseason with a sizable portion of a contending club already in place, though they’ll still need to make some adjustments — most notably at second base and on the pitching staff. Their unexpected status as contenders in 2017 has undoubtedly accelerated their timeline to contention, though, and their deep stash of prospects and pristine long-term payroll ledger should give Stearns and his charges plenty of opportunities to creatively supplement a roster that roster that looks infinitely better than it did one year ago at this time.

Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade

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After a second consecutive 68-94 season, the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuilding process still has no clear end in sight. Complicating things further for the organization are the facts that they already owe $68.7MM in guaranteed contracts to five players for the 2018 season, and $56.6MM to four players in 2019. Although the organization has shown a willingness to spend in the past, they aren’t exactly a large-market payroll juggernaut, so it stands to reason that the Cincinnati front office is unlikely to spend big across the next two seasons in order to compete for a pennant amidst a highly competitive NL Central division.

Enter Billy Hamilton. A free agent at the end of the 2019 season, the speed demon will probably reach the open market before October baseball returns to Cincinnati. It makes perfect sense, then, that the Reds might seek to explore the trade market for their fleet-footed center fielder.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

The 27-year old’s value is largely tied up in his legs. Statcast’s sprint speed leaderboard ranks Hamilton as the second-fastest sprinter in the game (behind Minnesota’s Byron Buxton), while Fangraphs rated his defense third-best among qualifying center fielders in 2017. He’s stolen at least 56 bases in each of his four full seasons at the major league level, and has routinely created runs by through aggressive base running.

The well-known achilles heel of Hamilton’s game has always been his terrible offensive output. Despite tremendous speed down the first base line, Hamilton owns a putrid career .248/.298/.338 batting line across 2,180 plate appearances at the major league level, good for a 71 wRC+ since his promotion in September of 2013.

So, when exploring potential suitors for Hamilton, it makes the most sense to start with teams that have a dire need for a defensive upgrade in center field. It’s also worth noting that Hamilton’s base running skills aren’t as useful to teams that rely heavily on the home run ball, such as the Rays, Athletics and Yankees.

With the above factors in mind, the Giants could be a particularly good match. AT&T Park’s outfield is particularly large, making it difficult for their hitters to put runs on the board via the long ball. Hamilton’s base running prowess would surely be a great asset to a team that finished dead last in baseball with 128 homers, but ranked 8th-best in contact rate. What’s more, San Francisco center fielders ranked as the third-worst defensive group in all of baseball via Fangraphs’ defensive metric. Hamilton would provide a considerable upgrade over that of the aging Denard Span.

Similarly, the Dodgers’ pitching staff could benefit from having Hamilton manning center field in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium, with Chris Taylor sliding to second base. The Royals could be on the lookout for a center field option if they don’t retain Lorenzo Cain. Hamilton could provide an overall upgrade for the Brewers over the strikeout-plagued Keon Broxton, though they’re more likely to see what they have in Lewis Brinson before looking to external options.

Though Hamilton’s lifetime fWAR of 10.6 pegs him as only a slightly above-average player for his major league career, his skill set is unique. He could fill a hole for many major league clubs, and there’s a good chance he could help fortify the Reds’ farm system while they continue to rebuild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Santana

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The Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees may well go down as Carlos Santana’s last hurrah in Cleveland, an organization he has been a member of since 2008. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is slated to reach free agency next month and has the credentials to rake in one of the richest paydays of the offseason. It’s possible Santana’s next contract will come from the Tribe, of course, but the small-market club is only a year removed from handing fellow first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion a substantial deal. The Indians could opt for a cheaper free agent to replace Santana, then, or perhaps they’ll turn to someone already on their talent-rich roster for aid.

Carlos Santana

If Santana has played his last game as an Indian, the Octagon client’s void will be a difficult one for the team to fill. Not only is he a switch-hitter who has consistently provided above-average offensive production from both sides of the plate dating back to his 2010 debut, but Santana has also been quite durable. Since 2011, his first full season, Santana has appeared in no fewer than 143 games in any individual campaign. He played in 154 games this year, giving him six seasons with at least 150 appearances.

The 2017 season, in which he earned $12MM to close out a bargain contract (six years, $33MM-plus), didn’t begin in ideal fashion for Santana. His production was down through June, somewhat mirroring his team’s win-loss output. The Indians sat a mildly disappointing 42-36 through the season’s first three months before going on a 60-24 tear to wind up as the AL’s top seed.

Santana played a key role in the Tribe’s memorable second-half run, as he posted a wRC+ of 169 in July, 161 in August and 119 in September. For the year, he put up a 117 mark and slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and a .196 ISO across 667 plate appearances. Santana continued to show off his signature plate discipline along way, walking in 13.2 percent of trips and striking out only 14.1 percent of the time. It was the second straight year in which Santana struck out in under 15 percent of PAs, making him one of the few hitters trending in the right direction in a league with skyrocketing K totals.

Including his most recent output, Santana has batted .249/.365/.445 with a .196 ISO, to go with a 15.2 percent strikeout rate against a 17 percent walk mark, in his 4,782-PA career. And while Santana’s not known for his glove work, the former catcher excelled at first this season, setting career highs in games (140), Defensive Runs Saved (10) and Ultimate Zone Rating (4.8). Between his work at the plate and in the field, Santana was worth 3.0 or more fWAR for the second straight year and the fourth time in his career. He has never registered a worse fWAR than 2.1 during a full season and has accrued 23.0 in Cleveland.

To this point, Santana’s numbers look rather similar to the production former teammate Nick Swisher logged before signing a four-year, $56MM contract with the Indians as a 32-year-old in January 2013. In 5,013 PAs from 2004-12, the switch-hitting Swisher racked up 25.0 fWAR and hit a Santana-like .256/.361/.467, adding a .211 ISO and solid walk and strikeout rates (13.3 percent and 21.1 percent, respectively). Of course, the Swisher experiment failed miserably in Cleveland, which is a reminder that even free agents with seemingly safe skillsets can rapidly decline.

Although the Swisher signing came almost a half-decade ago, something in the vicinity of his contract still looks like a fair benchmark for Santana’s next deal. While the Indians, Red Sox, Mariners and Angels are among a few potential fits, it’s worth noting that most teams were averse to spending big on first base/DH types a year ago. The leaguewide reluctance to splurge on those positions played a part in the Indians unexpectedly reeling in Encarnacion for a three-year, $65MM guarantee, and if it carries into this winter, it might enable them to re-up Santana at a reasonable rate. Further, it probably won’t help Santana’s cause that fellow first base options Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda and teammate Jay Bruce will join him in free agency after quality seasons of their own.

Hosmer and Santana are the class of the group and the only two who figure to garner qualifying offers, which could also drive down their appeal on the market. But if Santana rejects a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Tribe and manages to land a guarantee of at least $50MM from another team, the Indians would be entitled to a compensatory pick after the first round because they’re a revenue-sharing recipient. So, while losing Santana would be a tough blow for Cleveland, at least there’s a chance the franchise would get a nice consolation prize in return.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Athletics posted their third straight last-place finish in the American League West in 2017, but for the first time since their fateful Josh Donaldson trade in November 2014, the franchise has a clear direction. Not only did the A’s commit to a full rebuild in the middle of the season, but a couple of their prospective long-term core pieces – first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Matt Chapman – burst on the scene to provide immediate hope and contribute to a roster that closed the season on a 17-7 run. Led by executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst, the A’s will continue with a mostly youth-oriented approach in 2018, which means a fairly quiet winter could be in the offing.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

  • None

Athletics Depth Chart; Athletics Payroll Information

Evidenced by its handful of veteran signings in free agency last offseason, Oakland’s hope was to piece together a roster capable of pushing for a wild-card spot in 2017. But the A’s ended up well out of contention by summertime, paving the way for them to cut ties with several established players, most of whom were on expiring contracts. The primary exceptions were relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson and starter Sonny Gray, a trio of controllable players whose trades brought back returns which could benefit Oakland for years to come.

Of the A’s top 15 prospects, five came from those deals, per MLBPipeline.com. Doolittle and Madson netted left-hander Jesus Luzardo (No. 5) and third baseman Sheldon Neuse (No. 14) from the Nationals (plus major league reliever Blake Treinen), while Gray’s two-plus years of team control garnered outfielder Dustin Fowler (No. 3), infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo (No. 4) and righty James Kaprielian (No. 10) from the Yankees.

The Gray deal was especially notable not just for the prospect haul the A’s picked up, but because it was the end result of multiple years of trade rumors centering on the hurler. The A’s orchestrated a weekslong bidding war for Gray before moving him at the non-waiver trade deadline on July 31, and though two of the farmhands they acquired for him are on the mend from significant injuries, they still made out well in the swap. Fowler’s recovering from a ruptured patellar tendon, but the soon-to-be 23-year-old will have a legitimate chance to serve as the A’s starting center fielder from the get-go in 2018, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. And Kaprielian, who’s working back from the Tommy John procedure he underwent in April, could enter Oakland’s rotation sometime next year.

The aforementioned prospects are each important pieces of an ascending farm system, one the A’s could further bolster by selling well-performing veterans such as slugger Khris Davis and infielder Jed Lowrie in the coming months. However, they seem inclined to keep the pair. Fresh off his second 40-home run season in a row, Davis has only two years of arbitration control remaining and is projected to earn upward of $11MM in 2018. Despite Davis’ declining control and increasing price tag, A’s brass wants him in the fold.

“He fits in perfectly here,” Beane said after the season, while Forst brushed off concerns about Davis’ rising salary.

“If it is, it is,” Forst said of Davis’ arbitration case potentially being difficult. “I don’t think you could overstate the impact he has on the rest of the lineup.”

Lowrie, meanwhile, is down to his last year of control, but the A’s will pick up his affordable option and write him in as their starting second baseman for 2018. Doing so will allow them to give top prospect Franklin Barreto further seasoning at Triple-A after a rough 2017 debut in the majors, albeit over just 76 plate appearances.

With Davis and Lowrie seemingly returning next year, the majority of the A’s lineup already looks set. The infield will typically feature Olson, Chapman, Lowrie and shortstop Marcus Semien, while Fowler, Davis, Matt Joyce, Boog Powell and Chad Pinder will divvy up most of the reps in the outfield. For now, the designated hitter slot looks as if it’ll primarily belong to corner infielder Ryon Healy, but the A’s could attempt to move him to strengthen their bullpen, according to Slusser. The 25-year-old Healy isn’t even scheduled to reach arbitration until after the 2019 season, which could certainly appeal to teams searching for a long-term offensive piece, though he’s coming off a so-so year at the plate. While Healy belted 25 homers for a team that finished fourth in the majors in long balls (234), his .271/.302/.451 line across 605 PAs hovered around league average, thanks in part to a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate (3.8). Healy wasn’t much better in that category in his 283-PA rookie year, 2016, when he logged a 4.2 percent mark that a .305/.337/.524 line helped mask.

Regardless of whether Healy sticks around, the A’s will have a chance to build on an offense that placed seventh in the league in wRC+ (102) this year, particularly if they get better production from behind the plate. The A’s catchers, primarily Bruce Maxwell, now-Brewer Stephen Vogt and Josh Phegley, combined to hit just .217/.298/.334 this year. The lefty-swinging Maxwell was the best of the three in 2017 and is likely to collect most of the playing time at catcher next season, but the A’s could at least stand to improve over the righty-hitting Phegley. The 29-year-old non-tender candidate batted a meek .201/.255/.336 in 161 trips to the plate and, like Maxwell, ranked among Baseball Prospectus’ worst pitch framers. Fortunately for Oakland, there will be a few reasonably priced upgrades over Phegley available in free agency, including Chris Iannetta, Nick Hundley and Rene Rivera.

It’s fair to expect the A’s to add a catcher via the open market, but taking that path to find a starting pitcher may not be in the cards.

“The preferred route is to create the pitching staff organically. That’s where we’ve had the most success,” Beane said.

A’s starters ranked 20th in the game in ERA (4.74) and 21st in fWAR (7.9) in 2017, and much of that production came from the departed Gray. Despite that subpar performance, though, the A’s still have a mishmash of 20-something rotation candidates they may prefer to go forward with, including two somewhat established options – Sean Manaea and Kendall Graveman – as well as Jharel Cotton, Andrew Triggs (recovering from hip surgery), Daniel Mengden, Jesse Hahn, Paul Blackburn and Daniel Gossett, among others. There’s also Kaprielian and lefty A.J. Puk, the sixth overall pick in 2016, knocking on the door. But even though Beane isn’t gung-ho on free agency, the A’s could still reel in one of the many soon-to-be available veteran stopgaps capable of eating innings. Notably, only three A’s surpassed 100 frames in 2017.

Oakland’s rotation clearly had problems this season, but the bullpen didn’t help the club’s cause. A’s relievers registered the majors’ sixth-highest ERA (4.57) and ranked just 19th in strikeout percentage (22.0). And remember, that was with Doolittle and Madson around for a large portion of the campaign. Treinen, who came over in that trade, was outstanding for Oakland, though he’s the only returning standout in its relief corps. Santiago Casilla, Ryan Dull, Liam Hendriks, Chris Hatcher and Daniel Coulombe remain controllable for 2018, but nobody from that group was a world-beater this year. So, whether it’s via trade or free agency, it would behoove the A’s to upgrade their bullpen. Beane hasn’t been hesitant to use the market to pick up relievers recently, having added Madson, Casilla and John Axford over the previous two offseasons, and could do so again. Free agency will overflow with possibilities, many of them appealing and affordable. Speculatively, with Coulombe as their only semi-established lefty option, the A’s could look to a southpaw like San Jose native Jake McGee, Brian Duensing, Tony Watson or Fernando Abad for late-game improvement.

Given their new course, any players the A’s go after in free agency during the coming months are likely to be modestly priced Band-Aids, meaning there won’t be another Edwin Encarnacion-type pursuit this winter. Beane noted at his season-ending press conference that the A’s are aiming to take a “disciplined” course in the early stages of their rebuild, revealing that their primary concern is to identify which youngsters are bona fide linchpins worth locking up for the long haul. As such, any lengthy deals the A’s hand out prior to next season are likely to go to players who are already in their organization.

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