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MLBTR Mailbag: Martinez, Orioles, Nicasio, Phillies

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For the most recent edition(s) of the MLBTR Mailbag, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd fielded questions on the Cardinals’ search for a bat, whether the Pirates are at a crossroads, the heavily active August trade period and the Giants’ offseason.

We also published a second special edition hosted by Twins right-hander Trevor May, who has been contributing to MLBTR’s Players’ Perspective series while working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Trevor gave perspective into his rehab from a major surgery, the feeling of being traded (from Philadelphia to Minnesota in 2012), pitch counts/innings limits and much more.

Onto this week’s questions…

What do you think J.D. Martinez’s earning potential will be in free agency? Do the Diamondbacks have a real chance to resign JD and if not which teams do you think will hold the most interest? — John H.

The D-backs’ ability to re-sign Martinez is one of the single most popular topics in our MLBTR chats, the Mailbag and on Twitter. Considering the fact that he’s batted .289/.358/.732 with 24 homers in 212 plate appearances since being traded to Arizona, it’s not especially surprising to see Diamondbacks fans extremely interested in whether the team will be able to retain him.

Unfortunately for D-backs fans, I’m not sure how they’ll be able to reasonably afford Martinez beyond 2017. Arizona opened the 2017 season with a payroll just north of $100MM, and they already have about $60MM committed to Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas, Paul Goldschmidt and Jeff Mathis next season. That would seem to indicate that there’s some room, but Arizona has one of the most significant arbitration classes in recent history as well.

The Diamondbacks will have A.J. Pollock, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Randall Delgado, Chris Owings, Taijuan Walker, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Nick Ahmed, Andrew Chafin, Chris Herrmann, J.J. Hoover and T.J. McFarland as arbitration-eligible players this winter. While Herrmann, Hoover and McFarland could all be non-tender candidates, core contributors make up the bulk of that group. Arbitration alone could push Arizona’s payroll beyond its 2017 Opening Day mark before they add a single player.

A deep postseason run could give the D-backs some extra financial help, the team inked a television contract worth more than a billion dollars back in 2015, and there’s still the matter of a new stadium, so it’s possible that there’s room for the payroll to advance. But, Martinez is probably looking at a minimum of a five-year deal in free agency — if not six years — at an average annual value that could land in the $23-26MM range. The D-backs would need an enormous payroll spike to realistically be able to retain Martinez.

The Snakes could try to shed some of Tomas’ contract to clear a bit of room, but doing so would very likely require paying a significant portion of the remaining contract. The team could also try to heavily backload a hypothetical Martinez contract, though that presents the possibility of paying more than $60MM annually to just Martinez and Greinke in the latter stages of their respective contracts. Frankly, I just don’t consider the situation all that likely.

As for other Martinez suitors, both the Cardinals and Giants will be looking for big bats to put in the heart of their order this winter. The Angels have been MLB’s worst team against left-handed pitching and have Josh Hamilton’s contract finally off the books, though they may not wish to celebrate by diving headfirst into another huge contract for an outfielder. The Dodgers have the money, of course, though this iteration of their front office has been more restrained in terms of spending. The Phillies have a virtually blank slate when it comes to long-term payroll, but they’d have to convince Martinez to join a club that doesn’t look ready to contend yet in 2018.

Watching the Orioles throughout the year it seems to be the same old need: pitching, pitching and more pitching. Who do you see as legitimate targets for the Orioles this offseason that they could go after to bolster one of the league’s worst starting rotations? — (a different) John H.

The Orioles are in a tough spot, as this winter will force them to ponder if they should trade franchise cornerstones like Zach Britton, Manny Machado and Adam Jones before they reach the open market next winter or keep the core together and make one more run with this group. It’s not entirely dissimilar to the position in which the Royals found themselves last winter, and my expectation is that the Orioles will go the same route the Royals did: make one more attempt and be prepared to sell in the summer if need be.

I don’t expect the O’s to be serious players at the very top of the starting pitching market — Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta (been there, done that), Masahiro Tanaka (assuming he opts out) — but the second tier of starters will feature some names for the O’s to consider. Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb are both more in the Orioles’ price range, and Baltimore has shown a willingness to part with draft picks in the past in order to sign free agents. (Both Lynn and Cobb are qualifying offer candidates.) Of course, adding such pitchers will likely mean taking on commitments past the point that those veteran core players will have reached the open market (assuming none is extended).

There will also be no shortage of reclamation projects for the O’s to pursue. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register has reported in the past that the O’s tried for Hector Santiago when he was with the Angels, and he’ll be available and affordable coming off an injury-wrecked season in Minnesota. Tyson Ross, Francisco Liriano and longtime rotation fixture Chris Tillman are all rebound candidates likely looking at one-year deals in free agency.

Ultimately, though, the Orioles’ best chance at dramatically improving the rotation is to get better results out of Kevin Gausman and more consistency out of Dylan Bundy in 2018.

Any chance the Cardinals re-sign Juan Nicasio for next year?  What kind of contract is he probably going to want? — Steve V.

We received multiple questions about the Cardinals retaining Nicasio this week as well. In short, I’d be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t make an effort to keep him. St. Louis knows it’ll be without Trevor Rosenthal in 2018 following Tommy John surgery. Seung-hwan Oh and Zach Duke are free agents. Brett Cecil has struggled and Kevin Siegrist is already gone. The bullpen is going to be a point of focus for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the Cardinals’ front office. They already demonstrated that they like Nicasio enough to trade a mid-range prospect for four weeks of his services.

Over the past three seasons, Nicasio has solid overall numbers that are dragged down by sub-par performances as a starter. If you look at his body of work solely as a reliever — when he can throw at max effort in short stints and doesn’t need to face hitters multiple times in an appearance — he’s pitched to a 3.44 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. FIP is even more bullish at 2.83, while SIERA pegs him at 3.33.

Nicasio just turned 31, and with a solid three-year platform in the bullpen under his belt, I’d imagine he’ll enter free agency looking for a three-year deal. Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp, Zach Duke and Mike Dunn have all signed three year deals in the $15-25MM range in recent offseasons. Nicasio’s reps could try to surpass those marks and get closer to  Darren O’Day’s four-year, $31MM pact, but that strikes me as a lofty goal. (Though I’d have said the same if asked about a four-year deal for Brett Cecil a year ago. Free agency can get weird.) A three-year deal comparable to those other contracts seems pretty readily attainable for Nicasio.

Not that the Phillies will get much in return, but what type of market could they have this winter for Cameron Rupp and Tommy Joseph? — Michael H.

Agreed that neither is going to bring them a huge return, though I think Rupp comes with quite a bit more value than Joseph. As a part-time/platoon catcher, teams could do far worse. He’s hitting .261/.387/.432 against lefties in 2017 and has a career .283/.365/.506 slash against them. He’s not a good framer, and he’s not as good at preventing steals as he once was (though some of that could be on an inexperienced Phillies rotation), but three arbitration years of a lefty-mashing catcher isn’t without value. The Rockies, Orioles, White Sox, A’s and Giants are among the teams that could conceivably poke around for backup catching help this winter.

As for Joseph, I just don’t see much in the way of interest. His power is way down (.248 ISO in 2016, .190 in 2017), his strikeouts are up and he’s not an above-average defender at first base — his only feasible position on the diamond. That’s not to say he couldn’t end up as a bench/platoon bat in an organization that happens to like him, but it’s hard to imagine a significant trade return.

This may seem elementary, but I’ve never gotten a decent answer, so I’m coming to you. What is the difference between “command” and “control”? Are they two words for the same thing? — Jude

As a general disclaimer, I’m not a scout nor will I pretend to be one. That said, the general difference is basically that “control” is the ability to consistently throw strikes — working ahead of hitters, limiting walks, etc. “Command,” meanwhile, is more about actually locating within (or around) the zone. Basically, being able to put the ball where the pitcher wants to with more consistency. You can be a great strike-thrower and have good control without necessarily having elite command. I tend to think of it similarly to the distinction between accuracy and precision.

Three Needs: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read entries on the Braves,  Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants and Mets.

After reaching the ALCS in the previous two seasons, the 2017 Blue Jays stumbled out of the gate to a brutal 2-11 start and simply never got on track.  The team did have some good stretches and was still hanging around the wild card race in late August, so it could be tempting to write the season off as a by-product of some brutal injury luck, as several Jays regulars spent significant time on the disabled list.  It could also be argued, however, that the injuries simply exposed some underlying issues with the roster that would’ve prevented Toronto from contending even at full strength.

A rebuild isn’t in the cards given the talent (and big contracts) still on hand, so the Jays are planning for a big rebound in 2018.  Here are a few of the areas that need to be addressed in order for the Jays to return to contention…

[Related: Blue Jays depth chart and payroll information at Roster Resource]

1. Make the lineup less one-dimensional.  The Jays ranked at or near the bottom of the league in just about every major offensive category except for home runs and walks, and this lack of versatility led to the third-worst offensive fWAR (9.0) of any club in baseball.  Justin Smoak’s breakout year was countered by Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales having sub-replacement level seasons, plus the light-hitting duo of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney getting the bulk of playing time at the middle infield spots thanks to Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis missing much of the year.  Lengthy DL stints for Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Steve Pearce also didn’t help matters.

A general lack of speed and positional versatility is baked into the Toronto roster given the presence of so many veteran players.  If the Jays are looking to add contact hitting, defense and perhaps more stolen bases into the mix, two positions that stand out are right field (which we’ll address in the next point) and second base.  The Jays simply don’t know what they have in Travis due to his already-extensive injury history, so getting a more reliable middle infield option is necessary.  Shortstop is another question mark thanks to Tulowitzki’s own continued injury problems, though he’s probably untradeable because of his big contract.  An everyday middle infielder that could play second base but handle short in a pinch would be ideal for the Jays, as it would give them flexibility in the increasingly-likely event that Tulowitzki or Travis will again hit the DL.

The Jays could also consider trading a veteran simply in order to create room for more versatile players, even if it wouldn’t free up any payroll space.  The Jays would have to eat money to move Tulowitzki, Morales or maybe even Pearce, but they could cut down on that financial outlay by taking on another “bad” contract in return.  Dealing one of those big contracts to add a somewhat pricey corner outfielder, starting pitcher or reliever in need of a change of scenery would allow Toronto to address a need while technically not really creating another roster hole, given how little the in-house veterans contributed in 2017.

A bigger-picture move would be to deal Donaldson or Smoak, though such a trade doesn’t seem likely since the Jays will be counting on those two as cornerstones of next year’s lineup.  The Jays will certainly talk to Donaldson this winter about an extension as he enters his last year under contract, and even if talks don’t go anywhere, it seems much more plausible that Toronto shops Donaldson at next July’s deadline (if at all) rather than move him this winter.

2. Add a new right fielder.  Bautista’s tenure with the club is all but certain to end, leaving a big hole in right field.  Teoscar Hernandez, acquired at the deadline for Francisco Liriano, is the most obvious in-house candidate, though he may also not be ready for an everyday role on a contending team.  Ezequiel Carrera, Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith and perhaps Dalton Pompey are other internal options if the Jays wanted to cobble together a platoon, but right field stands out as a clear opportunity to add a reliable everyday player to the lineup.

While the Jays will have some money to spend, signing the likes of a J.D. Martinez or another top-tier free agent bat doesn’t fit with the team’s usual M.O.  A trade could also be somewhat difficult; barring the type of bad-contract swap scenario I mentioned earlier, the Jays don’t have much in the way of MLB-ready prospects to offer in deals.  This could be a situation where Toronto uses the money freed up by Bautista’s departure to acquire an outfielder from a team primarily looking to move salary rather than add prospects.

3. Add at least one, preferably two starting pitchers.  The Jays head into 2018 with a rotation headlined by Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and (theoretically) Aaron Sanchez, provided that Sanchez can solve the blister and finger issues that limited him to just 36 innings.  Sanchez’s injuries have already been enough of a lingering concern that he can’t be entirely counted on until the spring, making it all the more important that the club reinforces its pitching staff.

One spot could be filled by a familiar face, as there is mutual interest in a reunion with impending free agent Marco Estrada.  That will be a boon if Estrada returns to his 2015-16 form, though even the inconsistent 2017 version of Estrada has still delivered 176 2/3 IP and 2.7 fWAR.

It seems like any pitching additions will have to come via signings or trades, as Toronto is lacking in MLB-ready starters at the Triple-A level.  Joe Biagini could be a candidate for a fifth starter’s role after a full Spring Training of preparing to be a full-time starting pitcher, though his up-and-down performance as a starter this year hints that his ultimate future could be in the pen.  The Blue Jays won’t be shopping at the high end of the free agent pitching market, but a mid-range signing akin to their deal with Happ two winters ago could fit.  The Jays have already been mentioned as one of the teams potentially targeting Alex Cobb this offseason.

Three Needs: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants and Mets.

The Braves were among baseball’s absolute worst teams in each of the previous two seasons, finishing near the bottom of the majors in both wins and run differential. While they’re still below average in those categories (22nd in winning percentage, 19th in run differential), there has been progress this season. At 67-80, the Braves should surpass the 70-victory mark for the first time since 2014. That would obviously be a baby step, but moving forward with a healthy Freddie Freeman and the game’s No. 1-ranked farm system give the Braves legitimate reasons for hope heading into 2018. A productive offseason from general manager John Coppolella probably wouldn’t transform Atlanta into a playoff contender overnight, though pushing toward the .500 mark next year wouldn’t be an unreasonable goal. Here’s how Coppolella could make that happen…

1.) Acquire a front-line starter:

This is certainly a lot easier said than done, but the Braves’ actions indicate that they’re motivated to add a top-caliber starter. They’ve attempted to trade for Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana and Michael Fulmer, to name some high-profile hurlers, dating back to last season. Sale, Gray and Quintana have since switched teams, taking them off the table for Atlanta, but Coppolella could still try for Archer and Fulmer, among others.

Fulmer, the Braves’ primary target at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, seems more likely than Archer to end up on the move in the offseason. The Tigers are at the very beginning of what should be a long rebuild, after all, so it would behoove them to listen to offers Fulmer. Considering how strong their pipeline is, the Braves may be in better position than anyone else to land Fulmer, who will enter his age-25 season and final pre-arbitration campaign in 2018.

There are a couple potential free agents to keep an eye on, too, with two-way superstar Shohei Otani reportedly set to emigrate from Japan and fellow countryman Masahiro Tanaka a possibility to opt out of his contract with the Yankees. As a 23-year-old ace who won’t significantly cash in because of the new collective bargaining agreement, most teams will kick the tires on the flamethrowing Otani during the offseason. The Braves could be among those clubs, though they’re in an especially disadvantageous position from an international spending standpoint. Where Otani will sign is extremely difficult to forecast, especially when factoring in his offensive prowess. For instance, will he strongly consider heading to the National League, where his only at-bats are likely to come on days he pitches and in pinch-hitting situations? That’s not a concern with Tanaka – who, unlike ace-caliber free agents-to-be in Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, is on the right side of 30. Set to turn 29 in November, Tanaka won’t come cheap, as vacating his pact with the Yankees would mean leaving $67MM on the table.

Whether it’s one of the above starters or another high-end type, the front of the rotation is certainly an area worth addressing for the Braves. The club’s starters rank 22nd in the majors in fWAR (6.7) – a good portion of that (1.5) came from now-Yankee Jaime Garcia, whose final Braves start was back on July 21 – and 23rd in ERA (4.89).

2.) Upgrade at third base:

The performance of Johan Camargo has prevented third base from being a complete disaster this year for Atlanta, but continuing to count on him would be a gamble. While the 23-year-old rookie has given the Braves respectable production (.303/.336/.474 in 225 plate appearances), it’s smoke and mirrors to a large degree. Camargo’s .373 batting average on balls in play isn’t going to last, and his success has come in spite of a K/BB ratio (.23) that’s well below the league average (.40). Further, as Statcast shows (via Baseball Savant), Camargo’s expected weighted on-base average (.299) pales in comparison to his actual wOBA (.347).

Fortunately for the Braves, there will be more proven options available in free agency. The length of a potential commitment they make at the hot corner could depend in part on how far away the Braves think prospects Kevin Maitan and Austin Riley are. For example, if they’re counting on either to come up in the next couple years, that could rule out Royals slugger Mike Moustakas, who will easily score the largest contract among impending free agent third basemen. Less expensive choices will include Todd Frazier, Eduardo Nunez and, if he’s willing to move from shortstop to third, Zack Cozart. Frazier or Cozart would provide some punch to a Braves lineup that ranks 27th in ISO (.152), while Nunez would give a team in need of a baserunning boost a notable jolt in that area. Nunez also happens to be an above-average hitter, and the Braves don’t have enough of those.

The trade route could also be a viable avenue, with Chase Headley (Yankees), Jed Lowrie (Athletics) and Asdrubal Cabrera (Mets) standing out as Band-Aid types who might end up on the block in the offseason.

3.) Improve the corner outfield:

Center fielder Ender Inciarte has been terrific during his two years as a Brave, but they haven’t given him adept complements in either season. That’s going to change sometime soon when all-world prospect Ronald Acuna comes to the majors, but the Braves could still use at least one better corner outfielder in the meantime.

While Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis would’ve made for an appealing duo several years ago, their days as decent starters appear long gone. Those two have combined for just 0.4 fWAR this year, making them the main culprits behind the Atlanta outfield’s 29th-place ranking in that category (2.1). The Braves’ nine non-Inciarte outfielders have combined for minus-0.6 fWAR. Even including Inciarte’s production, 26 individual major league outfielders have matched or bettered the output of the Braves’ group of 10.

All of the above is to say that the Braves need to stop living in the past with at least one of the Kemp-Markakis tandem. The problem is that they may be stuck with the pair. Kemp, who will turn 33 next Saturday, is owed $21.5MM per year through 2019. The Braves would likely have to swallow nearly that entire sum to have any hope of moving him. It would be easier (but still difficult) to deal the soon-to-be 34-year-old Markakis, who’s the better and cheaper of the two (he’s due $10.5MM in 2018, the final season of his contract). Continuing with Markakis as a regular until Acuna debuts at some point in 2018 wouldn’t be catastrophic – at least he still gets on base – but adding another corner man should still be a priority.

Among impending free agents, Jarrod Dyson stands out as a clear upgrade who wouldn’t require the Braves to break the bank. Dyson will turn 34 next summer and doesn’t offer much as a hitter, which are concerns, but the current Mariners center fielder is outstanding on the bases and with the glove. It just so happens that the Braves need help in those areas.

Alternatively, Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Avisail Garcia (White Sox), Brett Gardner (Yankees) and Stephen Piscotty (Cardinals), to name a few, may be worth looking into as possible trade candidates.

[RELATED: Braves News & Rumors On Facebook]

MLBTR Originals

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Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

  • Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has quietly been one of the majors’ best players this year, leading Steve Adams to make arguments for and against the team issuing the impending free agent an $18.1MM qualifying offer after the season. Steve also polled readers on whether the rebuilding Reds should extend the pricey offer to Cozart. The majority of voters believe they’d be wise to do so.
  • Next, Steve highlighted 10 soon-to-be free agents who have boosted their stock since signing one-year contracts last winter. Perhaps the greatest success story has been Rays first baseman Logan Morrison, whose $2.5MM salary has shockingly bought the club a .243/.348/.517 batting line with 36 home runs in 555 plate appearances.
  • Jeff Todd offered an update on the nine players who have vesting options for 2018 in their contracts. Options for Rockies closer Greg Holland and Nationals left-hander Gio Gonzalez have already vested.
  • Jeff also broke down how the players selected in last winter’s Rule 5 draft have fared this season, noting that several picks have likely done enough to stick with their teams into 2018.
  • MLBTR’s “Three Needs” series continued with pre-offseason looks at some of the decisions and moves the Tigers, Reds, Pirates and Mets could make over the winter.

Three Needs: New York Mets

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates and Giants.

Fresh off back-to-back playoff seasons, the Mets entered 2017 with championship aspirations but have instead endured a Murphy’s Law campaign. Injuries and subpar performances have been the norm this year for the Mets, who have limped to a 63-84 record and have allowed 84 more runs than they’ve scored (783 to 679). With the exception of right-hander Jacob deGrom, all of New York’s stars have missed significant time with injuries. Even the Mets’ brightest spot of 2017, breakout outfielder Michael Conforto, couldn’t get through the year unscathed. Conforto suffered a torn left shoulder capsule in August, though the Mets don’t expect it to negatively affect him next season. As the Mets hope Conforto fully recovers from surgery over the next several months, their general manager (be it Sandy Alderson or someone else) will use the offseason to upgrade their roster in the hopes of returning to contention in 2018. Here’s a look at a few things New York could do during the winter…

1.) Add reliable starting pitching:

Ace Noah Syndergaard hasn’t pitched since suffering a torn lat muscle in his right arm on April 30, thus depriving the Mets of one of the game’s elite starters for nearly the entire season. He and deGrom will front the Mets’ rotation next year, though, giving the team an enviable one-two punch and taking pressure off the remainder of the rotation. New York is in dire need of help behind that duo, however, as counting on any other in-house options entering 2018 would be a substantial risk.

Former ace and 2016 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery recipient Matt Harvey’s career has gone off the rails since last season, meaning the Mets will have to decide whether to bring the 28-year-old back in 2018 for his final arbitration-eligible campaign. Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz each endured rough seasons that ended early on account of injuries, which is all the more trouble considering they came into the year with durability questions. And both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo have taken sizable steps backward since serving as key starters for the Mets in 2016. Rafael Montero, the only other Met to log double-digit starts this season, has been passable (4.83 ERA, 4.09 FIP in 85 2/3 innings), but it’s unclear whether he has done enough to warrant a spot for next year. The soon-to-be 27-year-old won’t have any minor league options remaining when 2018 rolls around.

From 2014-16, the Mets had Bartolo Colon in the fold as someone to provide 30-plus starts of roughly 4.00 ERA ball to complement their top-of-the-rotation arms. They’ve clearly missed that type of starter this season, though the year Colon has had with the Braves and Twins suggests he wouldn’t have been part of the solution anymore for New York. Any of Jhoulys Chacin, Marco Estrada, Doug Fister (whom the Mets courted as a free agent earlier this year) or John Lackey could make sense if the Mets aren’t in big-spending mode on the open market. But if New York is willing to splurge on an expensive starter, Lance Lynn would be a strong fit. Lynn missed 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he has otherwise delivered nothing but quality seasons of 175 or more innings since 2012.

2.) Sort out the infield:

It’s safe to say Amed Rosario, one of the game’s premier prospects, will continue to man shortstop in 2018. Uncertainty abounds everywhere else in the Mets’ infield, including at third base, where injuries have ruined team captain and seven-time All-Star David Wright’s career. Neck, back and shoulder problems have limited the longtime superstar to 75 games since the start of the 2015 season, and he hasn’t played in a major league contest since May 1, 2016. The Mets can’t expect anything out of the 34-year-old going forward, then, especially considering he underwent right rotator cuff surgery earlier this month. Wright is due an astronomical $20MM salary in 2018, but the Mets will save 75 percent of that figure via insurance for as long as he’s on the disabled list.

Wright replacements Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera have been reasonably effective in his stead this year, but it’s no sure thing any will be the answer at third next season. Reyes and Cabrera aren’t even locks to be on the team in 2018, in fact, as the former is a free agent-to-be and the latter has a team option. Barring trades, Flores and Rivera will be back (notably, the latter is recovering from Tommy John surgery), but they’ve never been single-position players. Those two could continue to rotate among third, second and first next year, which, combined with a Cabrera return, would mitigate the need for a major infield acquisition in the offseason. Otherwise, the Mets could conceivably add an established player at any of those spots, depending in part on whether they think rookie first baseman Dominic Smith is already a capable starter. In the aggregate, the 22-year-old hasn’t been all that productive since the Mets promoted him in the first half of August, and he wasn’t a world-class minor league producer. While Smith’s September numbers are gaudy (.300/.375/.620 in 56 plate appearances), an unsustainable batting average on balls in play (.379) and below-average strikeout and walk numbers paint a less rosy picture.

If they’re not content with Smith and/or their other infield options, there should be some reasonably priced potential targets available for the Mets in the offseason. First base types in Yonder Alonso, old friends Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce, and Logan Morrison will be on the market as cheaper alternatives to Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana. Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier lead the way at third behind Mike Moustakas, who may prove to be too expensive for the Mets’ taste. Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could also entice third base-needy teams in free agency, though his lack of durability may scare away a Mets team that has dealt with a deluge of injuries lately. Considering his baserunning prowess, Nunez would be a good fit for New York, which ranks 25th in the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and 29th in steals. Nunez can also play second, where the upcoming free agent class lacks players who are obvious upgrades over what the Mets already have. The same is likely true of the trade market, as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Dodgers’ Logan Forsythe have underwhelmed this year. The Athletics’ Jed Lowrie has fared well, on the other hand, but injuries have been problematic for him during his career.

3.) Get relief help:

Mets relievers finished 2016 second in the majors in fWAR and sixth in ERA. One year later, they’re 19th and 29th in those categories. There’s currently little in the way of confidence-inspiring in-house options beyond AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Jeurys Familia, the latter of whom has been one of many high-profile Mets to suffer through an unexpectedly terrible season, perhaps leaving room for multiple additions. Indeed, the Mets are zeroing in on the bullpen as an area they’ll need to address in the offseason. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, former Met Addison Reed, Brandon Kintzler, Juan Nicasio, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek could land on the Mets’ radar over the winter. Those are just a handful of many soon-to-be available veteran relievers who would figure to better the team’s late-game situation.

Three Needs: Detroit Tigers

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Next up in our Three Needs series: the Detroit Tigers.

1. Trade Ian Kinsler. 

This is about as obvious as these sorts of decisions get. Kinsler is already 35. He’s going to cost either $11MM or $12MM, depending upon whether he wins the A.L. Gold Glove for second base. (More on that here.) And it’s perfectly plausible that he could, since he continues to draw top-notch reviews for his glovework. Though Kinsler has dipped at the plate this year — he’s at career lows in batting average (.234) and slugging (.397) and is fighting to stay ahead of his prior low in OBP (currently .309) — he has a lengthy record of above-average hitting. And he also carries only a .243 batting average on balls in play this year despite making more hard contact (37.2%) than he ever has before, indicating some positive regression could be on the way. Even in a down year, Kinsler will put up at around 2 WAR; last year, he topped five (and, by measure of the DRS-based rWAR measure, did the same for the three prior seasons as well).

Bottom line: teams are going to see appeal in adding such a high-quality veteran at a palatable price on a one-year deal. Detroit has no real business employing Kinsler at this point. While his partial no-trade clause could factor in, Kinsler will surely see the merit in finding a new home with a contender. Demand at second base may not be immense, but there should be enough to support a decent return. The Tigers should be, and likely are, laying groundwork now to begin an auction process for the veteran.

2. Listen on Michael Fulmer, but hold out for a huge return.

You’ve heard the phrase “controllable, top-of-the-rotation starter” — or some variation of it — discussed quite a bit in recent months and years. Everybody wants ’em, but there aren’t enough to go around. And as that class of pitcher goes, Fulmer is near the top.

Fulmer is still just 24 and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2016. He won’t reach arbitration until 2019 (as a Super Two) and won’t hit free agency until 2023. His overall ERA has sagged this year on the whole, but he carried an exact match to last year’s effort (3.06) following his start on July 15th. Fulmer faded as a nerve issue became problematic. While that did ultimately require surgery, it’s not expected to limit him next year — and, as an added bonus, his elbow ligaments just received a visual inspection and clean bill of health from the world’s most famous baseball surgeon (Dr. James Andrews). Though he doesn’t rack up all that many strikeouts, most agree it’s not a concern, as Fulmer dominates with a four-pitch power arsenal that may allow him to continue to suppress batting averages on balls in play.

We’ve already heard of some teams approaching the Tigers with interest, and that’ll surely continue. The market has produced huge returns for pitchers such as Chris Sale and Jose Quintana; while Fulmer doesn’t have the former’s excellence or the latter’s track record, he’s much younger and cheaper. Clearly, even with the surgery, he’s one of the game’s best trade chips.

Under the circumstances, the Tigers ought to listen in earnest to offers on Fulmer. But the club would be foolish to pre-commit to dealing him for less than a true haul of young talent. There’s always risk in hanging onto a pitcher that has immediate and long-term value. But that’s just what the team should be willing to do if suitors don’t come calling with packages featuring multiple players that project to be quality big leaguers.

3. Don’t be afraid to lose.

Of course, Detroit shouldn’t hold onto Fulmer or others out of any inclination to keep winning games. The pain will come, and already has; the danger now is in not embracing it fully. Nabbing a few more W’s in 2018 is likely only to cost draft position and extend the timeline of a successful rebuild. There’s nothing the Tigers can do but play Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmermann, and Victor Martinez (if he’s able to return). Other than those high-priced veterans, who’ll need to reestablish some value to be traded, the efforts should be directed toward developing players, finding hidden gems, and generating trade chips.

That’s not to say that the Tigers can’t give some money to veterans. But they ought to be the sort whose control rights come with some real upside — younger free agents who haven’t yet harnessed their talents or still-useful veterans that slipped through the cracks. While the team had its reasons this year for giving significant time this year to over-30 role players such as Andrew Romine (114 games) and Alex Presley (207 plate appearances despite lengthy DL stints), doing so next year may not be wise.

Instead, the Tigers ought to be willing to part with useful relievers such as Shane Greene and Alex Wilson if there’s something worthwhile to be brought back. They should keep running out Mikie Mahtook unless and until he proves he can’t sustain solid production. And they ought to find out what they have not only in Dixon Machado, but also in reserve catcher John Hicks (who has hit quite well) and newly acquired prospect Jeimer Candelario.

If some buy-low opportunities arise in free agency, that’s always worth considering, but the Tigers already maintain a hefty payroll. And the bet here is that a wide variety of other teams will provide competition (and thus raise salaries) for the sort of short-term assets that might be of interest. Instead, perhaps, working the waiver wire and minor-league free agency will be more fruitful avenues for Detroit. The club should be open to taking chances there and perhaps also pursuing a few Rule 5 players.

It seems likely there will be fewer teams than usual in 2018 that truly don’t care about winning. The Tigers may join the White Sox as the only teams that are really just focused on aggregating young talent (though that could change in the coming weeks and there are a few other organizations that won’t be looking to spend much to improve in the near-term). That’s actually a good thing for Detroit, because the club has a clean path to a top draft pick and can operate without worry of results while other, slightly more advanced rebuilders begin to feel demand for results. The front office already made the hardest call in trading Justin Verlander. There’s no reason to look back now.

2018 Vesting Options Update

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We previously checked in on the vesting option scenarios playing out around the game. In the interim, though, we learned of a previously unreported clause and also gathered quite a bit more information about which options will and will not vest.

Here’s where things stand with just two weeks to go:

Already Vested

  • Greg Holland: It didn’t take long for the Rockies closer to finish thirty games, which triggered a clause that turned his $10MM mutual option into a $15MM player option. All indications are that Holland will spurn that payday (and the qualifying offer that will surely follow in close succession) to test the open market, but it affords him injury protection the rest of the way. Holland has already earned $9MM in bonus money. With six more games finished over the final two weeks of the season, he’d tack on another $2MM.
  • Gio Gonzalez: After topping 180 frames in his most recent start, Gonzalez is now under contract for 2018 at $12MM. While he has hit a bit of a wall of late, that still looks like quite an appealing price for a pitcher that has worked to a 2.68 ERA on the year.

Open Questions

  • Ian Kinsler: It was learned recently that Kinsler’s 2018 option actually has a somewhat convoluted vesting provision. He’s guaranteed to earn $11MM upon reaching 600 plate appearances. And if he takes home another Gold Glove award, he’ll earn another $1MM in 2018. The option is going to be picked up regardless, but the 35-year-old can make things official if he strides to the plate 49 more times between now and the end of the season. He’ll likely get there if he plays more or less every day over the next two weeks.

Will Not Vest

  • Ricky Nolasco: It’s still theoretically possible that Nolasco can reach the 202 1/3 innings he needs to transform a $13MM club option into a player option, but with over forty to go that’s just not happening as a practical matter. Instead, he’ll likely receive a $1MM buyout on the option.
  • Matt Cain: Cain is even more certain to receive a buyout; he’ll get a cool $7.5MM when the Giants say no to the alternative of paying $14MM more to keep him for another season. The veteran has compiled 119 1/3 innings of 5.66 ERA ball to this point, far shy of the volume or quality needed for that option to come into play. (It would have vested at 200 frames.)
  • Hisashi Iwakuma: Though he needed only 125 innings for his $15MM vesting provision to be triggered, Iwakuma has managed just 31 to date and is still on the DL. Instead, the M’s will likely pay him a $1MM buyout rather than picking up his option at $10MM.
  • Andre Ethier: Though he made it back from the DL, it was far too late for Ethier to lay claim to a $17.5MM salary for 2017. Since it’s impossible for him to make it to 550 plate appearances, he’ll instead receive a $2.5MM buyout when the Dodgers all but certainly decline the club option.
  • Matt Garza: Garza will be controllable via a $5MM club option. He was not able to reach 110 total starts from 2014-17, so his option did not vest at $13MM. But he also did not miss 130 or more days of action on the DL this year, so he avoided a provision that would’ve left the Brewers with a $1MM option for 2018.
  • J.J. Hardy: Also now back from the DL, Hardy returned far too late to reach the 600 plate appearances he’d have needed for a $14MM club option to become guaranteed. Instead, he’s destined to receive a $2MM buyout from the O’s this fall.

2017 Rule 5 Roundup

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With just a few weeks left in the season, we have a pretty clear idea of which Rule 5 draft picks will stick with their drafting teams. At this point, having already carried the player this far and with expanded rosters easing any pressures, teams are quite likely to stay the course. Here’s how this season’s Rule 5 group has shaken out thus far:

Keepers

It isn’t official yet, but these

  • Miguel Diaz, RHP, kept by Padres (via Twins) from Brewers: As part of the Pads’ unusually bold Rule 5 strategy, the club kept three youngsters this year. Diaz, 22, has managed only a 6.21 ERA with a 31:22 K/BB ratio over 37 2/3 innings. But he is showing a 96 mph heater and will remain with the organization, quite likely heading back to the minors next season to continue his development.
  • Luis Torrens, C, kept by Padres (via Reds) from Yankees: The youthful backstop — he’s just 21 — has struggled badly on offense in limited action. Through 133 plate appearances, he’s slashing just.169/.246/.212 — with just four extra-base hits, none of them home runs.
  • Allen Cordoba, INF, kept by Padres from Cardinals: And then there’s Cordoba, who’s also just 21 years of age. He faded after a hot start at the plate, but on the whole his output — a .209/.284/.304 batting line and four home runs over 215 plate appearances — is fairly impressive given that he had never before played above Rookie ball.
  • Dylan Covey, RHP, kept by White Sox from Athletics: Technically, owing to a DL stint, Covey has only compiled 83 of the minimum 90 days of active roster time required to be kept. But he’s going to make it there before the season is up, meaning that the Sox will be able to hold onto his rights and option him back to the minors in 2018. Covey, 26, has struggled to a 7.90 ERA with 4.9 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 over 54 2/3 innings, allowing 18 long balls in that span.
  • Stuart Turner, C, kept by Reds from Twins: Turner has seen minimal action, appearing in just 33 games and taking only 77 trips to the plate. And he’s hitting just .141/.184/.268 in that sporadic action. Clearly, though, the Reds have seen enough to believe he’s worth the trouble to hang onto.

Still In Limbo

  • Kevin Gadea, RHP, selected by Rays from Mariners: Gadea has not pitched at any level this year owing to an elbow injury. He’ll remain with the Tampa Bay organization for the time being, but will still need to be carried on the 40-man roster over the offseason and then on the active roster for at least ninety days for his rights to permanently transfer.
  • Armando Rivero, RHP, selected by Braves from Cubs: It’s the exact same situation for Rivero as for Gadea, though he has had shoulder problems.
  • Josh Rutledge, INF, selected by Red Sox from Rockies: This was not your typical Rule 5 move. Boston snagged the veteran infielder after he signed a minors deal with Colorado. He ended up seeing minimal MLB time owing to injuries and his season ended recently with hip surgery. Rutledge is eligible for arbitration this fall and isn’t likely to be kept on the 40-man roster regardless.
  • Anthony Santander, OF, selected by Orioles from Indians: Since he only made it off of the DL late in the summer, Santander can accrue only 45 days on the active roster. If Baltimore wants to keep him, then, it’ll need to put him on the Opening Day roster next year. Santander has seen minimal playing time thus far, recording two hits in twelve trips to the plate, though he put up impressive numbers on his rehab assignment.

Kept By Other Means

  • Daniel Stumpf, LHP, signed with Tigers after electing free agency upon return to Royals: This is another unusual situation. As a previous Rule 5 returnee, Stumpf was eligible to elect free agency upon being returned to his original organization. That’s just what happened when Detroit sent him back to Kansas City; the southpaw then turned around and re-signed a MLB deal with the Tigers. He has ended up turning in a rather productive year, posting 32 1/3 innings of 2.78 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 at the major-league level and showing even more impressive numbers during his time at Triple-A.

Already Returned

  • Tyler Jones, RHP, returned to Yankees by Diamondbacks: Jones has thrown rather well at Triple-A since going back to the New York organization, posting 10.7 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 63 2/3 innings, though he has also allowed 4.38 earned per nine.
  • Caleb Smith, LHP, returned to Yankees by Brewers: Smith ended up earning a 40-man roster spot and spending some time in the majors after showing quite well as a starter in the minors. But he has been knocked around in his 18 2/3 MLB frames on the year.
  • Justin Haley, RHP, returned to Red Sox by Twins (via Angels): The 26-year-old didn’t stick with Minnesota, allowing a dozen earned runs in 18 innings before being returned to Boston. But he has thrown well since landing back at Triple-A Pawtucket, posting a 2.66 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 44 innings over seven starts.
  • Tyler Webb, LHP, returned to Yankees by Pirates: Webb also gained a 40-man spot with the Yankees after showing some intriguing K/BB numbers at Triple-A. He was ultimately dealt to the Brewers.
  • Aneury Tavarez, OF, returned to Red Sox by Orioles: Tavarez played his way back up to Triple-A upon his return to his former organization, but has hit just .244/.292/.400 in 145 plate appearances there.
  • Glenn Sparkman, RHP, returned to Royals by Blue Jays: Sparkman was bombed in his one MLB appearance and has been limited to just 30 1/3 minor-league frames due to injury.
  • Hoby Milner, LHP, returned to Phillies by Indians: Another player who has risen to the majors with the organization that originally let them leave via the Rule 5, Milner has turned in 24 1/3 frames of 1.85 ERA ball in Philadelphia. Of course, he has also managed just 15 strikeouts against ten walks in that span.
  • Mike Hauschild, RHP, returned to Astros by Rangers: The 27-year-old righty struggled badly in his eight MLB frames. Upon returning to the rotation for Houston’s top affiliate, Hauschild has uncharacteristically struggled with free passes (5.3 per nine).

Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

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Next up in our Three Needs series: the Cincinnati Reds.

[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart]

1. Don’t (completely) abandon the pitching strategy. 

Wait, what?! The Reds’ pitching staff has been the worst in all of baseball since the start of 2016, handily pacing the league in the volume of walks, long balls, and earned runs allowed. Actually, that doesn’t quite capture it: the Reds’ pitching staff has essentially defined replacement level since the start of 2016, making it a true outlier. By measure of fWAR, at least, the 2016-17 Reds hurlers have turned in a two-year stretch of futility that is orders of magnitude worse than any other organization of the past two decades, falling well shy of the dreadful 2004-05 Royals and 2002-03 Devil Rays units.

It goes without saying that there’s work to be done if the Reds hope to win at any point in the near future. But Cinci was largely justified in its recent approaching, having accumulated a significant number of interesting-enough pitching prospects at the upper levels of the farm. While few were seen as sure things, the club correctly assessed its chances of contention (not good) and declined to dole out significant contracts to back-of-the-rotation veterans. (Compare to the Braves and Phillies, who spent quite a lot of money on veteran pitching and ended no closer to contention than did the Reds.)

Clearly, the pitching hasn’t developed as hoped; there’s quite a lot of room for self-assessment and improvement. But injuries to Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Homer Bailey, and even Scott Feldman — the rare player the Reds did sign into the rotation — played a major role in the dreadful performance, too. The first three of those hurlers will have an offseason to rest up. Luis Castillo — acquired for Dan Straily, who was found last year as part of the budget-friendly strategy — looks like an arm to build around. And the Reds have seen enough moments of intrigue from a few younger arms to hope that one or more can round out the starting unit. Others will become affordable relievers, perhaps with some capacity to make longer relief appearances (an approach the organization has stressed, with some success thus far).

At this point, there’s little reason for the Reds to suddenly begin investing in expensive, aging starters. It would be nice to see some stability added into the mix over the winter — the Feldman signing could provide a guide, or the team could perhaps spend a bit more and take a shot on a higher-upside arm — and the Reds have enough talent on the position-player side to be a plausible contender as soon as next year. But continued restraint would be preferable to a move that ties the organization’s hands in future campaigns.

2. Shop Raisel Iglesias.

What do you do with the best pitcher on a historically awful staff? Trade him, of course! Sounds odd at first glance, I’ll admit, but the Reds could be in a position to cash in on the talented right-hander.

Iglesias could be the centerpiece of a big trade after turning in 71 1/3 innings of 1.89 ERA pitching (so far) with 11.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. The 27-year-old is guaranteed just $14.5MM over the next three seasons, though he can choose instead to opt into arbitration and would qualify next year as a Super Two. Iglesias can also be tendered arbitration in 2021, meaning the Reds control him for four more campaigns at what ought to be quite an appealing rate (though his outstanding pitching and saves tallies will boost his earning power in arbitration).

For organizations that will be looking into veteran free-agent closers, or that otherwise have interest in a multi-inning relief ace (and who doesn’t?), there ought to be a real willingness to part with significant young talent. Teams will no doubt notice that Iglesias has thrown harder and generated more whiffs than ever this year, elevating his trade stock to what may well be an all-time high. Given the risks inherent to any pitcher, let alone a flame-throwing reliever, it’s quite possibly an opportune time for the Reds to cash him in.

To be sure, it would be foolish to give up such a talented, controllable asset for less than a compelling return. But the guess here is that the club should have a good chance of prying loose some quality, near-MLB assets — all the better if that includes a young starter — that could be of greater long-term impact and help set the stage for a sustainable run of contention. Earnestly shopping Iglesias will at least give the organization a strong sense of his market value, and might just drum up a great trade opportunity.

3. Bid a fond farewell to Zack Cozart.

It’s unfortunate that the Reds were never able to cash in on the strong play of their veteran shortstop, who has turned from a light-hitting defensive whiz to an all-around star in 2017. Injuries and thin market demand make the failure to strike a match largely understandable from the front office’s perspective.

Now, though, the club is left with a decision to make — one that’ll be due just five days after the end of the World Series. Should the club choose, it can dangle a qualifying offer to the free-agent-to-be. If he declines, and signs for more than $50MM elsewhere, the Reds could score an extra draft pick just after the end of the first round. Of course, if Cozart falls shy of that amount in free agency, the team would receive only a choice after the second round.

When polled recently, MLBTR readers were split as to how the team should proceed, but most felt a QO was in order. Count me among the minority on that decision. Cozart is already 32 and has battled quite a few injuries in recent years. We have already seen the dearth of shortstop demand leaguewide; while he’ll no doubt land a solid, multi-year deal, Cozart likely won’t earn enough (with draft pick compensation required of a signing team) to earn the Reds the highest-possible pick. And he will need to strongly consider taking the ~$18.1MM payday for one year of work.

As good as Cozart has been, and as hard as it may be to see him walk away with nothing coming in return, the Reds simply can’t afford to take the chance that he takes the offer. The team already has over $60MM on the books and will owe some reasonably significant arbitration salaries. Rather than potentially adding an expensive veteran to the left side of the infield, Cincinnati should be anticipating how to clear the way for top prospect Nick Senzel, who destroyed Double-A pitching this year but is blocked at third by Eugenio Suarez — who has spent plenty of time as a professional at short.

Free Agents That Have Boosted Their Stock On One-Year Deals

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With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.

Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:

  • Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
  • Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
  • Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
  • Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
  • Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
  • Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in  recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
  • Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
  • Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
  • Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
  • Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.

Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.

Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.

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