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MLBTR Mailbag: Richard, Mets, Giants, Nova

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As more and more teams fall out of contention, the subject matter of the questions in our inbox (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com) increasingly turns toward the offseason — specifically free agency. That was eminently true this week, thus prompting the free-agency-themed edition of the Mailbag that follows…

(As a quick aside, remember that if we didn’t get to your question, you’re encouraged to join one of three weekly chats — Tuesdays at 2pm CST with myself, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CST with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CST with Jeff Todd — to ask questions in a lengthier forum.)

Is Clayton Richard this year’s Rich Hill, and how much do you think it would cost the Padres to bring him back? — Adam

Richard may be the most comparable case to that of Hill’s 2015 September renaissance, but Richard hasn’t been as dominant as Hill was in Boston. While Richard’s 1.15 ERA is eye-catching, he’s averaged 7.5 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings with San Diego, whereas Hill averaged 11.2 K/9 and just 1.2 BB/9 in last year’s run. The nature of Hill’s dominance made it more believable that he could repeat his performance and led to widespread interest on the free agent market. He was dominating hitters, whereas Richard has relied more heavily upon getting favorable results on balls in play. The latter isn’t as sustainable as the former.

All of that said, Richard has been impressive in his return to San Diego. His 67.7 percent ground-ball rate, in particular, will pique the interest of pitching-hungry clubs, and his age gives him a significant one-up on Hill when juxtaposing Richard’s 2016 with Hill’s 2015 campaign. Hill broke out while on the brink of his age-36 season, whereas Richard turned 33 yesterday. (Happy birthday, Clayton!) Given the dearth of starting options, I think it’s possible that a team is willing to sign Richard for something in the vicinity of the Hill contract (one year, $6MM). That certainly has to be the benchmark that Richard and his reps at ISE baseball are aiming to match (and, more likely, to surpass). For what it’s worth, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took the under on $6MM for Richard when we chatted about it earlier today.

As a Mets fan, I’d like to know if you think the Mets will re-sign the trio of Neil Walker, Yoenis Cespedes and James Loney. I think Loney is a better option at first base than keeping Duda. — Lou

I strongly disagree that Loney is a better option at first base than Duda. Loney has been one of the least productive first basemen in the Majors since taking over for Duda, having turned in the fifth-lowest slugging percentage (.381) and seventh-worst OBP (.304) among the 37 first basemen with at least 300 plate appearances this season. He’s been about 15 percent worse than a league-average hitter, per metrics like OPS+ and wRC+, whereas Duda was 35 percent better than the league-average bat from 2014-15. There’s no comparison between a healthy Duda and Loney, and even half a season of Duda figures to yield more productivity than Loney. The Mets could re-sign Loney to a minor league deal as a safety net due to uncertainty surrounding Duda’s back, but I wouldn’t offer any more than that. And as far as tendering Duda a contract, giving him a bump to $7-8MM in arbitration is still a reasonable risk to take given his 2014-15 numbers.

Between Walker and Cespedes, they’re more likely to be able to work something out with Walker’s camp. Cespedes is the premier free agent on this winter’s open market, and I don’t envision him having the difficulty he had on last winter’s market. He won’t have Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon to compete with this season and is clearly a cut above the next-best corner options, which include Michael Saunders, a much older Jose Bautista, a struggling Josh Reddick and possibly Mark Trumbo (though Trumbo is clearly better suited for first base than the outfield). Cespedes has an easy case for $125MM+ this winter and could end up in the $140-150MM range depending on whether he pursues another opt-out provision. That’s probably too steep for the Mets, given their recent free-agent pursuits.

Walker, meanwhile, looked ticketed to top Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM deal before news of his back surgery broke. If four years are still on the table, I’d peg him to come in below Headley in light of that surgical procedure, and he might even be looking at three guaranteed years now as a result of the injury. There’s risk due to his back, but that’s a palatable price point considering Walker’s capabilities.

What are the best options for the Giants in free agency? Seeking a big time relief option or a power bat in the outfield? — D. Randa

I’d imagine that the Giants will be in on big-name relief upgrades, including Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, though the asking price on each of those names is going to be sizable (especially the first two). While I see the merit of targeting a left fielder, third base looks like a larger priority for San Francisco. Eduardo Nunez can serve the Giants well as a utility player, but his disappointing performance in San Francisco has left his 2016 numbers looking virtually identical to his 2015 production. I wouldn’t bet on him outperforming those levels in 2017 when he hasn’t demonstrated a prolonged capability to do so at the age of 29.

Justin Turner would be a significant boost to the Giants, and Martin Prado would make a nice fit as well. While Prado offers the same high-contact/low-power profile as Nunez, he has a history of striking out even less, walking more and playing better defense than Nunez. Turner will be 32 next season and Prado will be 33, so there are some age-related concerns, admittedly.

If a left fielder is determined to be the priority, the Giants have both the funds and the need to make an earnest pursuit of Cespedes as well, though they’ll obviously face ample competition on that front. And, there will be more corner outfield options on the trade market than there will be legitimate third base upgrades.

Is Nova about to get “Happed?”  Could he get something like 3/24 this winter given the weak market, or will his career-long inconsistencies limit his earning potential? — Michael G.

Three years and $24MM feels light at this point. That’s just tacking one additional year onto what Mike Pelfrey got coming off a disastrous three-year run with the Twins. Phil Hughes got that exact contract with Minnesota three offseasons ago coming off a clunker of a season in his own right. Neither of those pitchers were a part of a market as thin as the 2016-17 market, either.

Nova will pitch next season at age 30, so he has relative youth on his side, and he’s been outstanding ever since the move to Pittsburgh. Some teams will probably view his breakout as a bit more questionable than the J.A. Happ breakout referenced in the your question because it’s due largely to Madduxian control — Nova has walked just two of the 177 batters he’s faced as a Pirate — as opposed to Happ’s sudden uptick in strikeouts. But, the comparison is apt, as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently examined at length, and I still believe that he can top $30MM on a three-year pact. Furthermore, I’m not fully closing myself off to the possibility of a fourth season. He’s more than three years younger than Happ was when he hit free agency, after all. Reaching four years would mean a concession in terms of average annual value, but the possibility isn’t outlandish.

Three Needs: Los Angeles Angels

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At this point of the season, the focus for many teams has largely shifted to the upcoming offseason. While ten American League clubs are still within shouting distance of postseason position, only six teams are clear contenders for the five N.L. berths (with the Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies all hanging on by a thread with losing records).

After the season concludes, we’ll be looking at every team in the league in depth with MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series. For the time being, though, we’re taking preliminary big-picture looks at what some of the non-contending clubs will need to focus on in order to reverse their current standing.

We’ll start with a disappointing Angels club:

[View Angels Depth Chart]

1. Increase the flow of the talent pipeline.

If you check in on the Angels’ top prospect list on MLB.com, you’ll find that the first four players listed were all taken in the first two rounds of the 2015 and 2016 drafts. That’s representative of the state of the Halos’ farm, which is in the beginning stages of a much-needed farm restocking. A top-ten pick in next year’s draft will help — plus, it’ll be protected if the club signs a qualifying offer-bound free agent — but GM Billy Eppler will need to find ways to ramp up the talent intake beyond waiting for the team’s turn to draft. Unfortunately, the Angels are still disqualified from handing out $300K+ bonuses in the current international signing period owing to the seemingly ill-fated signing of Roberto Baldoquin. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, the team has been trading its slots for speculative minor leaguers rather than spending all its available funds on even younger international talent. Whether that particular strategy will pay off remains to be seen, but it seems incumbent upon the Angels to turn over all the stones they can find to load up the pipeline with future big league assets — both to get cheap players onto the roster and to generate trade pieces. Taking on cash in trades to pick up prospects may be tough given that the organization already has $100MM on its books for 2017 and about $75MM for each of the three seasons that follow, but that’s something of the approach that they took in acquiring Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer from the Twins. If some kind of partial reboot can’t be pulled off while still trying to contend, the nuclear option — trading Mike Trout — will be increasingly plausible.

2. Build up rotation depth.

Matt Shoemaker was having a nice season before his unfortunate injury, but he is the sole member of the Angels’ rotation who has been worth even a single win above replacement in 2016. Health obviously played a major role, but that’s not exactly a surprise given the attrition rate of major league pitchers. The cross-town Dodgers also lost a host of starters, but managed to stay afloat; the A.L. entrant from Los Angeles simply wasn’t able to reach into the reserves that its neighboring N.L. competitors were. The Angels ended up making mid-season acquisitions (Tim Lincecum, Jhoulys Chacin) in a desperate bid to find useful innings, and it just didn’t work out. Whether Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs can turn in full seasons will obviously be critical to the 2017 campaign, but the organization needs to find a way not only to plug in quality rotation pieces, but also to fill in when the arm problems all-but-inevitably arise. There’s going to be plenty of competition for the few appealing free agent pitchers available, and the Angels already dealt away their two best pitching prospects last winter to get Andrelton Simmons. Eppler and co. will need to do a better job of identifying the right under-valued hurlers to cobble together a serviceable staff. Plus, the team will need to find a way to complete the development of upper-level pitching prospects such as Meyer, Nate Smith, and Victor Alcantara.

3. Improve on the bases.

The Angels’ position players have combined this year to produce the league’s ninth-best results at the plate (by measure of wRC+) and were collectively slightly above-average on defense, but the club as a whole ranks dead last in Fangraphs’ total baserunning metric (BsR). That hasn’t been the case in recent years, but many of the team’s roster changes have brought in poorly-rated baserunners (Yunel Escobar, especially). Clearly, the Halos need to consider much more than wheels in filling in their numerous areas of need, which (still) include second base, left field, and catcher as well as the bench. But perhaps infusing some speed — and contemplating ways that the organization can improve its general approach — would be a somewhat subtle way to find value with a limited supply of talent available on the upcoming free agent market.

MLBTR Originals

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MLBTR’s original features from the past week:

  • Zach Links was among the reporters who joined the Mets’ conference call after they signed Tim Tebow to a minor league deal Thursday. Both Tebow and Mets general manager Sandy Alderson spoke about the former NFL quarterback’s new career.
  • Jeff Todd examined the free agent stock of Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Brandon Moss, who has bounced back from a rough 2015 to serve as an important part of the Redbirds’ lineup in a contract year.
  • Steve Adams highlighted eight former top prospects who rejoined their major league teams this month and are now looking to make their respective marks in the season’s final weeks.
  • Before Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw returned Friday from his two-plus-month absence, I polled readers on whether the three-time Cy Young winner deserves serious consideration for the award this year.
  • Steve surveyed readers on the future of Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe, who could be a non-tender or trade candidate during the upcoming offseason.

Former Top Prospects Looking To Stand Out As September Call-Ups

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Yasiel Puig’s return to the Majors this month will be carefully monitored by both the Dodgers and the teams around the league as they look to decide if he’s worth pursuing as a potential trade candidate. However, while Puig might be the most high-profile case of a once-top-tier talent looking to rebuild his stock, he’s far from the only player looking to do so. September was once looked at as a trial grounds for top prospects to cut their teeth in the Major Leagues, but as ESPN’s Keith Law recently wrote (subscription required and recommended), the “traditional” September call-up has fallen to the wayside as teams rely more heavily than ever before on their top-rated prospects throughout the course of the regular season. Only a few select top 100 prospects are even making their Major League debut this September — Yoan Moncada, Jose De Leon, Yohander Mendez and David Paulino, thus far — but there are a number of former top-ranked prospects that have exhausted their rookie eligibility (or will do so quickly this month) without yet establishing themselves as big league regulars.

MLBTR’s Jason Martinez has kept track of all of this month’s transactions over at Roster Resource. Among them are the call-ups of some once-lauded youngsters that are looking to make good on a second, third, or even fourth opportunity at the major league level (statistics through 9/8/16):

  • Byron Buxton, Twins: Buxton has returned to Minnesota for another MLB stint after yet another demotion to Triple-A, and the Twins will hope this last bit of seasoning he received was enough for him to capitalize on the potential that made him the game’s No. 1 overall prospect in back-to-back years. Buxton’s overall .305/.359/.568 line in 49 Triple-A games this season is tantalizing when combined with his outrageous speed and defensive prowess, but he was hitting under .200 with a .578 OPS in the majors at the time of his recall. Buxton, however, has already shown signs of at last figuring out MLB pitching, as he’s homered on four occasions for the Twins in September en route to a .462/.481/1.077 batting line. It’s a small sample, but it’s encouraging.
  • Jose Berrios, Twins: Berrios entered the season as one of the very top pitching prospects in baseball and was supposed to be a polished, near-MLB-ready arm. Many, in fact, believed he should’ve made the Twins’ roster out of Spring Training. Berrios was knocked around considerably in his two big league stints prior to September, though, demonstrating uncharacteristically poor control and allowing an unthinkable 38 runs in 37 innings of work. The Twins, as has been the case for years now, are perilously thin on starting pitching, and a strong September effort could go a long way toward strengthening Berrios’ case for a rotation spot in 2017. Surrendering five runs in five innings in his first September start wasn’t a good beginning, though.
  • Luis Severino, Yankees: Severino looked to have gone a long way toward solidifying his standing in the Yankees’ rotation in 2015, but those rushing to proclaim him the team’s future ace received a kick to the gut in 2016 when Severino limped to a 7.19 ERA in 51 1/3 Major League innings. Severino’s strikeout and walk rates went in the wrong direction, and he struggled tremendously with home runs. He’s slated to work out of the bullpen for the final month of the season and could prove that he’s a weapon in that capacity. Fans may hope that Severino ultimately resurfaces in the rotation, but as Dellin Betances has demonstrated, there’s plenty of value to be had if Severino ends up working in relief when all is said and done. Six shutout relief innings have been a nice start for the 22-year-old.
  • Michael Conforto, Mets: Few would’ve expected the Mets to add a corner outfielder like Jay Bruce entering the season with Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson all in the fold, but Conforto struggled at the plate after a terrific 2015 debut and a brilliant start to the season. The 2014 first-rounder hit .365/.442/.676 in April but tanked thereafter, hitting .148/.217/.303 across his next 44 games before being optioned to Triple-A. Conforto would return the following month and struggle once again, leading to another demotion. His final stint in Triple produced comical numbers, as he obliterated Triple-A pitchers with an obscene .493/.541/.821 batting line, six homers and four doubles in 17 games. The Mets and Conforto both hope that’s the last Triple-A assignment he’ll ever require. With Cespedes likely to opt out of his contract this winter, it’d behoove Conforto to show that he can fill those shoes, if needed, with a strong September.
  • Cody Reed, Reds: Reed has been quite good at Triple-A, working to a 3.08 ERA with strong K/BB numbers, but he’s been pummeled for a 7.36 ERA and allowed a staggering 12 home runs in just 47 2/3 innings in the Majors this season. He ranked firmly among the game’s top 50 prospects entering the season and, according to some scouting reports, has a better shot to stick in the Cincinnati rotation than teammate Brandon Finnegan, who came to the Reds in the same trade as Reed (sending Johnny Cueto to Kansas City). There looks to be at least one spot up for grabs next season, and while he’ll be pitching out of the bullpen for the final month of the year (via the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan), a strong showing this month will help his chances next season. At the very least, it’d be a positive sign for the Reds if he could simply avoid the long ball in his limited work.
  • Joey Gallo, Rangers: Gallo may have the toughest time finding regular playing time of anyone on this list, as the presence of Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran, Mitch Moreland, Nomar Mazara and Carlos Gomez limits his ability to get into the lineup. However, Gallo could be used to spell any of the aforementioned corner bats this month, and a player with his game-changing power would figure to be a potential add to a playoff roster as well. He struck out in his lone plate appearance to date and will look to demonstrate an improved knack for contact as he closes out the year.
  • Justin Nicolino, Marlins: Nicolino turned in a solid, albeit unspectacular rookie season in 2015 before being torched for a 5.48 ERA in 70 2/3 innings earlier this year. Like Reed, he’s currently ticketed for bullpen duty, but with talk of possibly shutting Jose Fernandez down for the season if the Marlins fall out of contention, Nicolino could find himself making a few starts one way or another. He hasn’t missed bats in the Majors and will need to show an improved ability to do so, though his pristine control has been on display this season in the minors and should help offset the lack of whiffs to some degree.
  • Eddie Butler, Rockies: Another starter that will work out of the bullpen in the final month, Butler recently made some notable changes to his delivery that he feels were directly correlated with his late surge at Triple-A. Butler was shelled for a 6.96 ERA earlier this season and has a career 6.37 ERA in the bigs but did manage a 2.58 ERA in his final 45 2/3 innings at Triple-A (albeit with an unimpressive 15-to-10 K/BB ratio). With so many impressive young arms beginning to surface for the Rox, Butler could carve out a role as a hard-throwing reliever with a high ground-ball rate, and this September will be an early shot to prove that.

Beyond the listed names, players such as Kevin Plawecki, Andrew Susac and Dalton Pompey also fit the criteria specified for this post, but the former two are serving as third-string catchers while the latter looks to be solely in a pinch-running/defensive replacement role. Names like Robert Stephenson, Tyler Glasnow, Alex Meyer and others were also considered initially, but didn’t quite fit because they haven’t yet exceeded the rookie limits or haven’t really struggled in limited exposure. Among those three hurlers, for example, only Stephenson has even thrown ten MLB frames, and he owns a 3.12 ERA.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brandon Moss

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Entering the 2016 season, some questioned whether the Cardinals should tender slugger Brandon Moss a contract. Despite having given up a solid pitching prospect (Rob Kaminsky) to acquire him at the trade deadline, St. Louis received only average offensive production from Moss down the stretch in 2015. And he was set for a big salary in his final season of arb eligibility.

The Cards continued to show faith in Moss, though, ultimately tendering him and agreeing on a $8.25MM payday. And perhaps it was never a close call. After all, the team was willing to part with Kaminsky in that deal even though Moss had put up a meager .217/.288/.407 batting line with the Indians over the first half of 2015.

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As Moss puts the finishing touches on a strong 2016 season, St. Louis faces another question on him, but it’s at quite a different price point. Now, it’s an open question whether the team will make him a $16.7MM qualifying offer. If it does, Moss will at least need to consider accepting, given that he’ll be entering his age-33 season and would otherwise stand to enter the market with draft compensation attached.

Regardless, the fact that the QO could even potentially come into play is testament to Moss’s quality efforts. Over his 384 plate appearances in 2016, he owns a .247/.323/.532 batting line with 25 long balls. While he did miss a bit of action with an ankle injury, that isn’t likely to be a long-term issue, and he has kept hitting since his return.

So, what explains the lull? Is this season an outlier or was last? Ever since his 2012 breakout, Moss has walked in between 8.7% and 11.6% of his plate appearances while striking out between 25% and 30% of the time. His isolated power dipped in 2014 and fell further in 2015, moving in sync with his homer-per-flyball rate. But Moss posted a hard-hit ball rate in the 40% range last season. And now that the HR/FB has moved back to a lofty 21.7%, he is again doing damage.

There’s certainly some risk in this sort of profile. Interestingly, Moss’s best overall offensive campaigns have come when his swinging-strike rate was at its highest. For a player who already has a ton of whiffs in his game, and doesn’t add value through his legs or his glove, teams will rightly question what kind of investment to make.

Platoon splits, too, raise some questions. As you might have guessed, Moss has feasted on righties this year but has been merely average when facing same-handed pitching. That represents a return to the somewhat freer-swinging version of Moss from 2012-13, when he was most productive overall. In the intervening two seasons, Moss actually carried reverse platoon splits, showing less power but better on-base ability against southpaws. All said, it’s an interesting and varied profile, but clubs will likely expect to spell Moss at least occasionally when lefties take the mound.

One other notable aspect of Moss’s likely upcoming free agent case is his glovework. I noted already that he doesn’t really add value on defense, but he has actually received slightly positive lifetime UZR and DRS ratings in the corner outfield. Those metrics don’t love him at first base, but perhaps the glove will help keep his market more open than one might expect. While Moss isn’t any kind of stolen base threat, moreover, he has traditionally rated as a roughly league-average overall performer on the basepaths.

In the aggregate, even in his best years, Moss has been more of a 2 to 2.5 WAR player. Clearly, there are some limits to his game that may not make him a simple plug-and-play everyday regular. But with the right roster around him, Moss could be a highly valuable piece, bringing strong big-time left-handed pop and more competency in the field and on the bases than one might have expected.

Finding comps for a contract is a tricky business for a player like Moss. The qualifying offer question could loom large, as some teams may simply not be interested in punting a pick to sign him. And it’s not easy to assess whether most organizations will view Moss more as an oft-used platoon player or a plausible everyday presence in the lineup.

From where I sit, though, Moss isn’t particularly likely to get a QO. That ought to help maintain a reasonable spread of demand for the veteran, which could significantly impact how his market develops. A two-year arrangement could make some sense, and Moss might reasonably hope to land on the higher side of a set of price points that range from $12MM (Chris Young) all the way up to $32MM (Mike Napoli). Three years have been there for near-regular, non-QO outfielders like Gerardo Parra ($27.5MM) and Denard Span ($31MM), with Nick Markakis representing of a next tier with his deal (four years, $44MM). Pop typically pays more than other skills, but it seems a bit of a stretch to imagine Moss reaching the levels of Nelson Cruz (four years, $58MM), even though the Mariners slugger was slightly older and came with draft compensation.

Odds are that Moss will be looking more at two or three year offers than viable four-year scenarios. That may not represent a banner entry onto the free agent market for a player who has popped 24 bombs per year for the last five seasons, but Moss was a late-emergent talent and is already looking to sell seasons in his mid-thirties. Still, he has obviously pushed his earning power back northward with a quality campaign that makes his 2015 dud look like a bit of an outlier.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tim Tebow, Mets GM Sandy Alderson On Minor League Signing

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This post originally appeared on Pro Football Rumors.

When Tim Tebow was last in the New York market, he was under center for the New York Jets.  While the former University of Florida standout sold a whole bunch of No. 15 jerseys, he didn’t make a lot of plays for Gang Green and 2012 wound up being the last time Tebow was on an NFL regular season roster.  After trying his luck with the Patriots and Eagles, Tebow turned his attention to broadcasting.  After years of putting his charm, looks, and athletic background to use on television, he is returning to professional sports in New York.  This time, he’s trying to make it with the Mets organization as an outfielder.

Tim Tebow (vertical)

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Tebow, 29, has not played baseball full time in more than a decade.  In his recent audition for major league clubs, he reportedly struggled to hit off-speed pitches from former big-leaguers David Aardsma and Chad Smith.  One scout told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that Tebow showed a below-average 40 grade arm on the 20-80 scouts scale – a reminder of why Tebow was never able to make it as a quarterback on the professional level.  Even though he showed “undeniable hitting ability” in the view of Crasnick, one has to wonder how far Tebow can get given his age, rust, and athletic limitations.

Count Mets GM Sandy Alderson among those with faith in the polarizing athlete.  Alderson told reporters on a conference call today that Tebow is not being brought in as a ploy to sell merchandise.  While he recognizes that Tebow faces an uphill battle in many respects, the GM says that the Mets could not pass on “a tremendous opportunity for us to associate with excellence.”

“He has demonstrated through his personality a competitiveness that our players can see first hand,” said Alderson, who pointed to pitcher Seth Lugo and minor league standout T.J. Rivera as players who have come from obscurity to find success in the Mets organization. “I think any player evaluation starts with tools and from that standpoint, without grading everything out, suffice it to say that Tim has been a great athlete.  He has demonstrated more than rudimentary baseball skills and we think with his commitment to success that this is an opportunity that we think is worthwhile.  In terms of power, arm, foot speed, all of those things….we think he can be a baseball player.  I think that is underscored by his competitiveness and his determination to succeed and improve.”

Alderson indicated that the Mets will be patient with Tebow as he refused to put a timeline on when the former Heisman Trophy winner could potentially reach the majors.  The Mets will find out how ready Tebow is “over the next weeks, months, and possibly years,” though Alderson explained that he will be absent from his Instructional League commitments for “a few days each week” so that he can fulfill his TV obligations with the SEC Network.

So, why baseball and why now?  Tebow explained that walking away from baseball was the “second hardest decision” he ever had to make and, in fact, he planned on making this switch more than a year ago.

“[Then Eagles coach] Chip Kelly called in the middle of baseball training and, to me, that wasn’t just any opportunity. I figured Coach Kelly’s offense might fit me really well.  But, we all know how that turned out,” said Tebow with a self-deprecating laugh. “After that, I started doing a little [baseball] training.  Then, after the season, I really picked it up and now we’re here.”

Tebow explained that as he traveled the country doing speaking engagements over the last few years, the itch to play baseball would move him to call up a local team and take batting practice with them.  For UFC fans, this may be reminiscent of pro wrestler-turned-real fighter C.M. Punk telling the world that he has trained for MMA with the occasional jiu-jitsu class and a “background” in Kenpo karate.  But, in both cases, one can’t help but be impressed by the athlete’s positive attitude, competitive drive, and willingness to take a monumental risk in a brand new endeavor.   Punk does not speak of winning the welterweight title from Tyron Woodley and Tebow isn’t telling the world that he is an All-Star in the making.  For Tebow, this is about pursuing a dream – perhaps a little late in his athletic life – and making sure that he does not wake up one day as a 50-year-old baseball fan with enormous regret.

“For me, I would consider success giving everything I have,” Tebow said.  “That would be looking back on this journey and saying I did everything I could do to be the best I could be.  I don’t necessarily view success as how many rings, championships, or promotions you get.  I view it as whether I did everything I possibly could do to succeed.”

Zach Links is the editor and lead writer of Pro Football Rumors, MLBTR’s sister site for the NFL.  You can follow Pro Football Rumors on Twitter – @pfrumors.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Clayton Kershaw’s Cy Young Chances

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced Sunday that baseball’s preeminent ace, Clayton Kershaw, will make his long-awaited return to Los Angeles’ rotation against the Marlins on Friday. Before landing on the disabled list in late June with a herniated disc in his back, the left-hander was on track for an all-time great season. In addition to posting a 1.79 ERA in 121 pre-injury innings, Kershaw struck out 10.79 batters and walked a microscopic .67 per nine frames, giving him an incredible 16.11 K/BB ratio. The record for a season is a modest-by-comparison 11.63, a figure the Twins’ Phil Hughes put up in 2014.

Kershaw, 28, was clearly the best pitcher in the majors through the end of June and looked poised to ultimately collect his fourth National League Cy Young Award at the conclusion of the season. Now, despite his brilliance this year, the time Kershaw has missed makes racking up any personal hardware look like a long shot. It’s debatable whether that should be the case, however.

If he stays healthy down the stretch, Kershaw will likely close the regular season in the 150-inning range, which would put him far behind fellow NL Cy Young contenders like Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Fernandez and Madison Bumgarner, among others. Nevertheless, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron (an NL Cy Young voter) detailed Friday, Kershaw has easily outperformed the rest of his league’s elite this season. For instance, Hendricks leads qualifying NL starters in ERA (2.12), yet he has allowed 20 more earned runs than Kershaw in only 38 more innings. Thus, voters will have to weigh whether a truncated season of sheer dominance from Kershaw is superior to a full year of excellence from Hendricks or any of the other aforementioned options.

History suggests that voters tend to place significant value on workhorses, evidenced by the fact that Kershaw (198 1/3 innings in 2014) and former Dodgers closer Eric Gagne (82 1/3 in 2003) are the only two NL pitchers to throw fewer than 200 frames in a Cy Young-winning season since 1990. Still, Kershaw will finish 2016 with videogamelike numbers, and both results- and FIP-based WAR indicate that he has been among the most valuable pitchers in the NL despite a two-plus-month absence. Unfortunately for Kershaw, his extraordinary output over a limited number of innings might not be enough for him to garner serious Cy Young consideration. Do you think it should?

Does Clayton Kershaw Have A Legitimate Cy Young Case?
No. He won't amass enough innings. 51.31% (3,203 votes)
Yes. His performance can't be overlooked. 48.69% (3,039 votes)
Total Votes: 6,242

MLBTR Originals

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Here are MLBTR’s original features from this week:

  • To kick off September, Tim Dierkes updated his free agent power rankings for the upcoming offseason. Just two pitchers – a pair of relievers – cracked the top 10.
  • MLBTR was happy to welcome former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs, who wrote a piece questioning the Dodgers’ recent decision to trade catcher A.J. Ellis to the Phillies for fellow backstop Carlos Ruiz. Statistics aside, from Spilborghs’ experience, beloved teammates like Ellis are integral to a club’s success.
  • In his latest guest column, former reliever Burke Badenhop explained what became of his die-hard Braves fandom when he broke into the big leagues. Badenhop’s career began with the Marlins, one of the Braves’ NL East rivals, and his first outing against the team he grew up rooting for didn’t go particularly well, as he detailed.
  • Fourteen major league free agents signed contracts for four-plus years last offseason, but the upcoming winter’s weak-looking market means there could be fewer deals of that length handed out before the 2017 campaign. Tim addressed that and surveyed readers on which players are likeliest to end up signing for four or more years after this season.
  • Charlie Wilmoth examined the free agent stock of Pirates right-hander Ivan Nova, a trade deadline acquisition from the Yankees who has served as the Pittsburgh pitching staff’s latest unexpected success story since joining the team.
  • Former Pirates reliever and current Nationals closer Mark Melancon is also scheduled to hit free agency, so Mark Polishuk took a look at what the market could have in store for the shutdown righty.
  • Jeff Todd highlighted 10 under-the-radar free agents-to-be who are amid successful seasons and could soon receive nice deals as a result.
  • In another offseason-oriented piece, I ran down six impending free agents who haven’t performed up to expectations this year. Their disappointing seasons could weaken their earning power.
  • Jeff also updated a previous post by Steve Adams and Zach Links concerning notable contract extensions that were awarded in the previous five Septembers.

Recent September Extensions

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September isn’t a terribly active month on the trade front as players acquired after August 31 are not eligible to join an acquiring club’s postseason roster. However, in recent years, we have seen some notable extensions hammered out in the final full month of the regular season. While most such agreements represent short-term arrangements with veterans, every now and again there’s a more significant pact to be found. Could we see one go down in the next week and change? Here’s a look back at some notable September extensions over the past five seasons…

2015

  • None … but honorable mention to the Marlins’ early October agreement with Ichiro Suzuki on a one-year, $2MM extension with a club option. — The Fish pushed a 41-year-old Ichiro harder than had been expected in 2015, and he responded with a less-than-useful campaign. But he was still valued as a bench presence, and it didn’t hurt that 2016 promised a run at 3,000 hits. Ichiro not only passed that milestone, but has gone on to thrive in a more limited role this year, providing solid baserunning and glovework as well as a sturdy .292/.362/.363 batting line in 301 plate appearances to date.

2014

  • Rockies sign Jorge De La Rosa to a two-year, $25MM extension. — De La Rosa saw a strong uptick in his fastball velocity in 2014, his second full season back from Tommy John surgery.  With an average of 92.3 mph on his heater versus 91.1 mph in 2013, De La Rosa pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent ground-ball rate in 160 2/3 innings of work at the time of the signing.  This season, the hurler has pitched to a similar 4.17 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

2013

  • Padres sign Will Venable to a two-year, $8.5MM extension. — Venable had a breakout season in terms of his power production in 2013, so the Padres moved to lock in his remaining arbitration salaries, as further 20-homer/20-steal seasons would cause the price to soar. Unfortunately for the team, Venable’s decision to opt for security looks wise, in hindsight, as he batted just .224/.288/.325  in the first year of the deal and .248/.325/.356 in 2015.  This season Venable was moved to Texas in an August waiver trade as the Rangers looked to add outfield depth.
  • Marlins sign Greg Dobbs to a one-year, $1.75MM extension. — This extension drew plenty of public scrutiny, as Dobbs’ on-field performance in 2013 (.228/.303/.300) didn’t warrant the deal. It was eventually reported that owner Jeffrey Loria negotiated the deal without consulting former president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest. The Dobbs extension would be one of many stories that were referenced when describing the rift between Loria and Beinfest at the time of Beinfest’s dismissal.
  • Giants sign Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90MM extension. — The most notable of any extension in this post, Pence was positioned to be one of the top free agents in the 2013-14 class, but he took what looked to be market value at the time to remain in San Francisco. As it turns out, the market for outfield bats was more aggressive than many had thought, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo landing seven-year deals worth $153MM and $131MM, respectively. Last season, Pence hit .277/.332/.445 with 20 homers.  This season, Pence has put up a similar .275/.327/.478 line, though he has seen only 52 games on the year due to injury.

2012

  • Padres sign Chris Denorfia to a two-year, $4.25MM extension. — Denorfia’s strong season led former GM Josh Byrnes to lock in his final arb years with this modest extension, and Denorfia made the deal look like a good one in 2013 by hitting a solid .279/.337/.395 with a career-high 10 homers and excellent numbers against lefties. His production fell off in the contract’s second year, but the Padres’ triumvirate of interim GMs were still able to flip him to Seattle for outfielder Abraham Almonte and minor league righty Stephen Kohlscheen.
  • Rangers sign Colby Lewis to a one-year, $2MM extension. — Lewis went down for the season in mid-July back in 2012, but he’d been enjoying a strong season and was expected to return for the 2013 campaign, making a $2MM salary a potential bargain for Texas. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Lewis had multiple setbacks and wasn’t able to take the hill the following season, but it’s not hard to see why they were interested in the low-risk deal; Lewis had turned in a 3.93 ERA over his previous 506 1/3 innings with the Rangers.

2011

  • Cardinals sign Chris Carpenter to a two-year, $21MM extension. — Carpenter led the league in innings pitched in 2011 and had been generally excellent over the previous three seasons, prompting quite a bit of praise for this deal. He, in fact, restructured his contract and took what most expected to be less money in the long run, giving up a $15MM club option in favor of this two-year deal. Of course, Carpenter would sadly throw just 17 more innings in his career before injuries forced him to retire. While it looked good at the time, this deal didn’t pan out.
  • Mets sign Tim Byrdak to a one-year, $1MM extension. — While the extension wasn’t particularly memorable and didn’t have a large impact on the 2012 Mets, Byrdak fired 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball and was a strong weapon against lefties, making him worth his modest salary.
  • Cardinals sign Lance Berkman to a one-year, $12MM extension. — After a huge rebound campaign in 2011, Big Puma was rewarded with this contract, but he totaled just 97 plate appearances the following season due to knee injuries. He wasn’t able to recover with the Rangers in 2013 and retired following that season, putting an end to an excellent career.
  • Marlins sign Omar Infante to a two-year, $8MM extension. — This contract paid dividends in the sense that Infante was largely excellent for the Marlins over the next half-season before being dealt to the Tigers along with Anibal Sanchez. That trade netted former top prospect Jacob Turner, catcher Rob Brantly and lefty Brian Flynn — a respectable haul at the time but one that now looks lackluster. Miami dealt Turner to the Cubs for a pair of low-level relievers last season, and Brantly was passed over in favor of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
  • White Sox sign Sergio Santos to a three-year, $8.25MM extension. — Signed at the end of a breakout season as the White Sox closer, Santos found himself traded to the Blue Jays for pitching prospect Nestor Molina that offseason. Molina didn’t do much and was outrighted by the ChiSox in 2014, but they probably feel fortunate not to have had to pay Santos the money he was guaranteed, as shoulder injuries led to a 5.23 ERA and just 51 innings pitched over the life of his three guaranteed years with Toronto.

A previous installment of this post written by Steve Adams and Zach Links ran in September 2015.

10 Under-The-Radar 2017 Free Agents Posting Strong Seasons

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We often focus on free agents who are lined up for monster contracts — indeed, MLBTR’s most recent power rankings were just released today — but there are plenty of players who can command strong salaries even if they won’t likely receive four or more years worth of guaranteed money. Here are ten somewhat under-the-radar big leaguers who seem primed to hit the open market on a high note:

Steve Pearce, IF/OF, Orioles: Pearce hasn’t quite matched his top-end output since moving from the Rays to the O’s, and he has missed time due to injury, but Pearce is still delivering a strong .256/.341/.513 batting line for Baltimore. He’s running out a 144 OPS+ on the year, which qualifies Pearce as a highly intriguing, multi-position on the market to come.

Sean Rodriguez, IF/OF, Pirates: Always a versatile player, Rodriguez has upped his game this year with a career-best .250/.339/.482 batting line over 252 plate appearances. The 31-year-old doesn’t have the track record or slugging upside of Pearce, but he has enhanced his position quite a bit.

Martin Prado, 3B, Marlins: Though he has had a few poor stretches and no longer hits quite as many home runs as he used to, Prado has somewhat quietly hit rather well ever since he was dealt to the Yankees in the middle of 2014. This year, he’s swinging a .319/.371/.432 stick with typically solid glovework, making a three-year deal possible.

Angel Pagan, OF, Giants: Expectations were rather low heading into the year, as the 35-year-old Pagan has dealt with injuries and was coming off of a brutal 2015. But he has responded with a .293/.346/.437 slash and remains a quality baserunner and fielder. Age will be a major limitation, but Pagan should draw plenty of interest.

Matt Joyce, OF, Pirates: Few players have had as dramatic a turnaround as has Joyce, who just turned 32. He owns a rather remarkable .263/.404/.522 batting line with a dozen long balls in 230 plate appearances. Even if the vast bulk of that damage has come against right-handed pitching, he has been good against lefties in limited action and looks to be quite an appealing platoon candidate.

Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Mariners: Speaking of platoon candidates, the righty-swinging Gutierrez has followed up on a stunning 2015 comeback campaign with a sturdy effort this year. He has been more good than great, and has only really been useful against southpaws, but it’s still a nice place to be for a player who had seemed unlikely to be playing at all not long ago.

Doug Fister, SP, Astros: In retrospect, Fister’s 2015 campaign looks more like an injury-plagued down year than the beginning of the end. The peripherals don’t quite support the 3.60 ERA he carries over 157 1/3 innings this year with Houston, but the towering right-hander is in a strong position with few quality starters available this winter.

Joe Blanton, RP, Dodgers: Sure, Blanton’s reinvention as a reliever came about last year, but was anyone sure if it would last? He has now tallied 69 2/3 frames with the Dodgers in 2016, posting a 2.58 ERA with 8.7 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9, and looks like a high-quality relief target entering his age-36 campaign.

Travis Wood, RP, Cubs: Wood’s days as a pure starter may be over, but his swingman potential adds to the value. A 3.35 ERA over 53 2/3 innings is obviously appealing, even if it comes with rather drastic platoon splits (.937 OPS vs. righties, .500 vs. lefties).

Boone Logan, RP, Rockies: We have already talked Logan up a bit as a trade candidate who was (somewhat oddly) not traded. The 3.15 ERA is nice, but the real star is his 16.1% swinging-strike rate — which is accompanied by a robust 51.6% groundball percentage. Logan has finally translated the whiffs into good results after his two prior seasons were wrecked in part by a sky-high BABIP-against.

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