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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers took care of business last night against he Atlanta Braves to win their third pennant in the last four seasons. Corey Seager took home NLCS MVP honors, but it was Enrique Hernandez and Cody Bellinger coming up with big home runs in the sixth and seventh innings to seal the win. Our 2020 World Series matchup is now set, as the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Dodgers, beginning with a pair of Dodgers’ home games (at Globe Life Field in Texas) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Odd at it sounds, it’s rare to see each league’s top seed make it to the World Series in the same season. This year’s match-up achieves even rarer air, however. The Rays and Dodgers boast the highest combined regular-season winning percentage of any World Series contenders all-time, per Stats by STATS. There is, of course, the short season caveat, but the 2020 World Series nonetheless pits two sterling contenders against one another in what should/could be a real barnburner.

In one corner, we have the small market Rays. Run by the finest wunderkinds MLB can offer, this era of Rays baseball has been known for three things: innovation, ridiculously strong farm systems, and a front office of baseball wizards who have thrice been poached by large market clubs (Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers). The best of the Rays prospect pool remains on the farm (Wander Franco), but less-heralded stars like Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Joey Wendle, Pete Fairbanks, and others have led the Rays to the World Series. Lest you think they’re merely a ragtag group of underdogs, remember that Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, and Blake Snell make up a surprisingly star-studded rotation for these “measly” Rays.

With manager Kevin Cash pulling the strings, Tampa finished 12th in runs scored during the regular season, 9th in wRC+, and 9th in batter fWAR. Arozarena, Choi, and somehow, Mike Zunino have steered the ship for the offense in the postseason thus far. They’ll look to get more from Lowe at the top of the order, and rest easy in knowing they don’t need to outscore the world forever, they just need to outscore the Dodgers in 4 games. The pitching should help in that regard, as their 3.56 team ERA was third in the majors.

The Dodgers, of course, boast a 3.02 team ERA during the regular season, the top mark in the majors. They also hit more home runs and scored more runs than any other team in the majors over the 60-game season. After coming back from a 3-1 NLCS deficit, they’ve now checked the ’faced adversity’ box as well. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger lead a star-studded offense, while Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler should be ready to start the first two games of the series. With rest days built in, the Dodgers’ ace duo should be more available to the Dodgers than at any other time this postseason.

And of course, there’s Andrew Friedman, the architect of these Dodgers who came to run a large market behemoth with the restraint and attention-to-detail he used to run the Rays. There aren’t gimmicks here, it’s just process building and sound decision-making. The philosophy works, and now we can sit back and enjoy the show as Friedman’s old team takes on his new one.

Let’s keep this simple, baseball fans: who is going to win the World Series? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Braves Or Dodgers?

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The National League pennant will be decided tonight. The Braves and Dodgers will kick off NLCS Game 7 in a few hours. The winner will take on the Rays next week in the World Series.

The Dodgers were the league’s most imposing offense in the regular season. Los Angeles has continued to mash in the postseason, averaging nearly six runs per game in the NLCS, thanks largely to Corey Seager’s recent home run barrage. Overall, L.A. has a 35-30 run differential edge for the series.

Atlanta’s lineup doesn’t have the depth of the Dodgers’ but the Braves obviously have ample high-end talent. Atlanta also has the more stable pitching outlook for Game 7. While the Dodgers will open with Dustin May, presumably to kick off a full-on bullpen game, Atlanta will hand the ball over to Game 2 starter Ian Anderson.

The 22-year-old Anderson has just six career regular season appearances under his belt, but he’s been downright stellar. The former third overall pick put up a 1.95 ERA over 32.1 innings as a rookie. Anderson punched out an impressive 29.7% of opposing hitters during the regular season while racking up grounders on over half the balls in play against him. The changeup artist also hasn’t been scored upon in 15.2 playoff innings.

The MLBTR readership was almost evenly split as to who would emerge victorious at the beginning of the series. (For what it’s worth, the Braves have since lost left fielder Adam Duvall to an oblique injury, unexpectedly forcing Cristian Pache into everyday duty). Predicting individual baseball games can be something of a fool’s errand, but we’ll turn it over to the readers nonetheless. Who will be celebrating a league championship tonight?

(poll link for app users).

MLBTR Poll: DJ LeMahieu’s Next Contract

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It was only two years ago that second baseman DJ LeMahieu reached free agency for the first time. The former Cub and Rockie hit the open market as someone who was regarded as a useful contributor, but hardly a star. He still did well for himself, inking a $24MM pact with the Yankees, but now finds himself on the verge of another trip to free agency. The difference this time is that LeMahieu will now be one of the most coveted players available.

While LeMahieu did have a batting title with the Rockies on his resume when the Yankees added him, he didn’t show off a ton of power prior to moving to New York. In all, he was a .298/.350/.406 hitter with a mediocre 90 wRC+ and 49 home runs across 3,799 plate appearances. Since then, though, LeMahieu has exploded for a .336/.386/.536 mark, a 146 wRC+ and 36 HRs, making him one of the sport’s elite hitters. He’s coming off a regular season in which he picked up another batting title (.364) and paced the American League in wRC+ (177).

One of the questions now is how far the Yankees may go to retain LeMahieu. He said before their season-ending ALDS loss to the Rays that there had not been any contract talks, but it’s hard to believe the Yankees won’t put forth an earnest effort to re-sign the 32-year-old before free agency opens. They may not make a competitive enough offer, however, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote earlier this week that the Yankees are likely to “hold the line” at a maximum of three years and $20MM per annum.

During our pre-free agency debates at MLBTR, we’ve set a floor of $80MM over four years, though we have entertained even higher guarantees. No matter what, it’s easy to see LeMahieu, a big hitter with defensive versatility, reeling in a far larger payday than he did the last time he was looking for a contract. For this exercise, we’ll place the over/under at $80.5MM. How well do you think LeMahieu will do? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

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It was just last season when the Rays battled back from down 2-0 to force a game 5 winner-take-all match with the Astros in the ALDS. That game featured a showdown of Gerrit Cole versus Tyler Glasnow, one that would be replayed this year, but with Cole wearing pinstripes. Cole fared better last year, when the Astros took down the Rays by a score of 6-1. The Rays got their revenge on Cole Friday night, and now they’re ready to check the Astros off their list as well. Easier said than done, however, as these Astros have proven they won’t go quietly.

The home team won every game in their playoff showdown last year. Of course, this season there will be no home crowd to contend with, but the tables have turned in that the Rays are the AL East champs who will enjoy last bats for games 1, 2, 5, and 7. As a wild card entrant, the Astros are a rare much-disliked underdog. They’re also a much different team from last year, at least on the pitching side of things.

Of course, their front offices know each other well. After the Astros were forced to fire Jeff Luhnow, James Click was hired away from the Rays to take over as General Manager. Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Click said about facing his former team, “On a scale from zero to weird, it’s going to be weird.”

This series will be played over 7 consecutive days, should it go the distance. Both the Rays and Astros have gone to “playoff style” in their pitcher usage, but a 7-game, 7-day series will stretch those staffs even further. For the Astros, there’s concern about the health of Zack Greinke. The 36-year-old enigmatic ace has been dealing with arm soreness for the past month, though doctors did not find any structural damage. Still, it’s a concern for the Astros, as Greinke hasn’t been at his sharpest, surrendering 5 earned runs in 8 2/3 postseason innings thus far.

They’ve survived without him largely due to the breakout of 26-year-old Framber Valdez, who will start game one on Sunday night. Lance McCullers Jr. will go in game two. They’re planning to remove a position player in favor of having an extra arm for the ALCS, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (via Twitter). Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are also options to start games, while Enoli Paredes stepped up in a multi-inning role for the Astros against the Athletics. As a staff, they’re breaking new ground with every new win. Even Ryan Pressly, one of their few veterans, is experiencing his first postseason as a closer.

Same as Houston, the Rays will add a 14th pitcher to the staff and drop a position player, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). That should help them cope with a drawn-out series, the but the Rays chart their own path in terms of managing their pitching staff, as evidenced by manager Kevin Cash bringing back Glasnow to serve as a glorified opener on 2-days rest for the clinching game of the ALDS. Blake Snell will get the game one start for the third round in a row, while Charlie Morton is expected – though not announced – as the game two starter.

Because they play in different divisions, these two teams haven’t faced off since last year’s ALDS. The series starts tomorrow night. MLBTR readers, who is going to win this series? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Yankees v. Rays: Who Will Advance?

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The rival Yankees and Rays entered the season as the two favorites in the AL East, and they did indeed finish atop the division. The Rays handily outdid the Yankees, though, finishing with a 40-20 record to New York’s 33-27 mark. The Rays got there in part because they dominated the Yankees in the regular season with eight victories in the teams’ 10 contests. However, the clubs have been much more evenly matched in their ALDS showdown. At 2-2, they’ll meet for the decisive Game 5 of the series on Friday.

To this point, the offensive excellence of designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton – who already has four home runs in the series – has led the Yankees. In all likelihood, though, New York will need a sterling performance from ace Gerrit Cole, a 30-year-old who’s starting on short rest for the first time in his career, in order to advance. The club signed Cole for this type of game when it landed the ex-Pirate and Astro on a record contract worth $324MM over nine years last offseason. Cole has since gone 2-0 in the playoffs, including a Game 1 victory against the Rays, and allowed five earned runs on 12 hits with a 21:2 K:BB ratio over 13 innings.

With a payroll that falls well short of the Yankees’, the Rays have used a mix of creativity and shrewdly acquired talent to earn a place among the game’s elite teams. They revolutionized the opener strategy a couple years ago, and they won’t be afraid to turn to it yet again Friday. Righty Tyler Glasnow, Cole’s former Pirates teammate, will take the ball in Game 5 at the start; however, Glasnow’s only on two days’ rest, and manager Kevin Cash said on Friday that the Rays will utilize 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell early if there’s a need for it, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Snell could further strengthen a bullpen that was one of the majors’ best during the regular season.

So far in the series, the Yankees have outscored Glasnow, Snell & Co. by a 23-19 count. But none of that matters heading into a do-or-die Game 5. Which team do you expect to finish with more runs Friday and advance to face the Astros in the ALCS?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The NLCS?

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The 2020 National League Champion Series is set, and for all the concern of a watered-down postseason field this year, we’ll see two of the league’s top three records square off when the 43-17 Dodgers take on the 35-25 Braves.

Atlanta and Los Angeles both feature powerhouse offenses, as the two were separated by just one run during regular season play atop the National League leaderboard; the Dodgers scored an NL-best 349 runs to the Braves’ 348. The Dodgers posted a team 122 wRC+ to the Braves’ 121.

It’s a different story on the pitching front, where an injury-plagued Atlanta club saw its rotation post an NL-worst 5.51 ERA to the Dodgers’ NL-best 3.29 mark. The Braves, however, have a pair of high-end arms fronting a top-heavy rotation: Cy Young candidate Max Fried and breakout rookie Ian Anderson. Former No. 5 overall pick Kyle Wright dominated in his postseason debut yesterday when he blanked the Marlins over six innings and piled up seven strikeouts. As for the bullpens? These are the National League’s two best in terms of both ERA and FIP.

Both teams swept a division rival in the NLDS. The Dodgers ended a breakout 2020 showing for the upstart Padres, while the Braves cut short a Cinderella season for a Marlins club that very few pegged as a playoff contender. The end result is a star-studded NLCS that will pit Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and the rest of the Dodgers against Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Fried and the Braves. We’ve yet to see these clubs square off in 2020, but this best-of-seven series should pack plenty of intrigue.

We’re three days out from Game 1, which will take place on Monday evening. MLBTR readers, who are you taking? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

MLBTR Poll: More Likely Comeback, Athletics or Yankees?

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Both American League Division Series move to their fourth games Thursday. That leaves a pair of AL clubs staring down elimination. The West-winning Athletics dropped the first two against the division-rival Astros but survived the first of three potential elimination games yesterday. The Yankees, meanwhile, are on the ropes after dropping two straight in their set with the top-seeded Rays.

Each of the A’s and Yankees will need to win the final two games of their upcoming series to advance to the ALCS. Oakland will turn to Frankie Montas this afternoon, while the Astros will counter with staff ace Zack Greinke. New York is relying on Jordan Montgomery tonight, while Rays’ manager Kevin Cash will open with Ryan Thompson, presumably before turning to Ryan Yarbrough.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Can the Yankees’ high-powered offense overcome the Rays’ stellar pitching staff? Will the A’s star-studded bullpen right the ship and keep the Astros’ scorching lineup in check? Which team is more likely to dig themselves out of their current hole?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Rays Or Yankees?

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The top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays are set to “host” division rival New York Yankees in a playoff-bubble, 5-game, 5-day ALDS contest beginning on Monday night. Without days off, this series will function differently from divisional rounds of years past. The Rays and Yankees will both need to rely on their pitching depth to get through this series, starting with a barnburner in game one as Blake Snell takes on Gerrit Cole.

The Rays are famous for relying on organizational depth, but throughout the course of the regular season they have the luxury of the railway between Triple-A and the big leagues to replenish the bullpen and keep fresh arms rotating into games. The Rays should still have plenty of depth to survive the five-game series if all goes according to plan, given 28-man rosters.

Still, expect to see a lot of different Rays’ arms cycling through games. Tampa starters went less than five innings per start during the regular season, and that’s true for their top trio as well as the rest of the staff. Tyler Glasnow will take the hill in game two, with Charlie Morton getting the start in game three, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (Twitter links). Glasnow, Morton, and Snell combined for an average of 4 2/3 innings per start during the regular season, and that’s not likely to change much during the playoffs, where each pitch registers as high-impact and stress levels reach season-highs.

In the bullpen, both the Rays and Yankees are used to relying on a number of different arms for high-leverage innings. That will be important if the series goes the distance. Yankees’ closer Aroldis Chapman probably carries the single biggest individual burden, but Zack Britton can expect at least equal usage coming out of the pen for stress outs in the middle-to-late innings. As they have all season, the Rays will go with a bullpen-by-committee approach, leaning heavily on the quartet of Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, and John Curtiss late in games.

On the offensive end, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris points out that the Rays strike out a lot and don’t homer very much, which isn’t a typically strong recipe for October. On the other hand, in a conversation with Lindsey Adler, he writes: “But what teams are we talking about? The Rays ran out 60 different lineups in 60 games! They called up Randy Arozarena and sent everyone running in September, and seemed like a different team.”

The Yankees, of course, have the advantage of Cole going in game one, who has a history of strong postseason starts. He’s also as close to a guarantee as there is in the game right now to provide length. That should get the Yankees off on the right foot. Plus, he’ll be backed by a potent offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weak spots. Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Giancarlo Stanton, even Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, and Brett Gardner have proven their potency in the postseason. It’s a scary lineup, any way you slice it.

Still, the Rays have the best record in the American League, an 8-2 record against the Yankees, and a chip on their shoulder. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides this quote from Kevin Kiermaier, “We’re a small-market team with a low payroll, not a whole lot of household names, but with a lot of very good, above-average, quality major-league baseball players. One through 28, or however many roster spots we’re allowed, we know we can play with anyone. We know we can beat anyone.”

The Rays 3.56 team ERA was 2nd-best in the American League, where the Yankees finished 8th. By FIP the gap closes a bit with the Rays finishing 3rd and the Yankees 7th. The Yankees led the Rays by just 0.4 offensive fWAR, though their 116 wRC+ as a team was the best mark in the American League. The Rays are no slouches in that department either, finishing fourth at 109 wRC+.

Austin Meadows has been a big part of that offense for Tampa Bay – at least in theory – and he’s working his way back to full health, per Toribio (via Twitter). Meadows might have the highest ceiling offensively in the Rays lineup, but it’s been a tough year for the outfielder, who managed just 36 games with a .205/.296/.371 line. He did not appear in their 2-game sweep of the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Without him, the Rays still have plenty of options, especially given the defensive prowess of Kiermaier and Manuel Margot, as well as the emergence of Arozarena, who could also continue to see time as the designated hitter.

As for the Yankees, they’ll be reliant as ever on an otherwordly offense that just continues to produce in key spots. Not even mentioned in their ridiculous collection of offensive talent above, DJ LeMahieu leads the way after winning the batting title in the America League. On the mound, Cole gives them a big-time punch in game one, but that could be his only appearance of the series. To pitch again, he’d have to come back on short rest in a potential game five. If the Yanks lose game one, it will certainly be interesting to see at what level of urgency they come to the park for game two. Masahiro Tanaka and J.A Happ are likely to follow Cole in the rotation, though manager Aaron Boone hasn’t officially set the rotation yet. High-profile rookie Deivi Garcia could get the ball in a potential game four.

All of which is to say: who knows? This is perhaps the preeminent series of the divisional round, which is saying a lot considering we have four divisional match-ups ahead. What say you? Who is going to come out on top to face the winner of the Astros and Athletics on the other side of the bracket? Save your personal preferences for the comments – I want to know who will win this series.

(Poll link for app users)

Padres v. Cardinals: Who Will Advance?

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There is only one first-round playoff series remaining, and it will be decided tonight when the Padres and Cardinals complete their matchup in Game 3. The Padres entered with the far better record (37-23 against 30-28), but injuries to top starters Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger – who have been unavailable – have impacted the series.

With Lamet and Clevinger on the shelf, San Diego turned to Chris Paddack and Zach Davies in the first two games, but the pair struggled. The team’s now so short on options that it will tap reliever Craig Stammen as the opener in a bullpen game Friday. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will have Jack Flaherty on the hill. Flaherty went through a very disappointing regular season, though he’s only a year removed from serving as one of the league’s most valuable starters.

On the offensive side, the Fernando Tatis Jr.-led Padres finished the season with one of the game’s most potent attacks, ranking third in runs and fifth in wRC+. The Cardinals weren’t nearly as good (28th in runs, 19th in wRC+), but the Paul Goldschmidt-helmed outfit has outscored the Padres 16-15 in the series.

The game’s about to get underway. Which team do you expect to advance? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Sustainable Hitter Breakout

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The trade deadline is approaching. Heck, the postseason races are already taking shape. But it’s still exceedingly early in this oddest of MLB seasons. With the action unfolding on a tightened timeline, it’s more necessary than ever not to ignore the short-sample alerts.

That said, it’s hard to ignore some of the unexpected names near the top of the WAR leaderboard with a quarter of a (partial-) season in the bag. Each of these six guys ranks among the top twenty fWAR accumulators in baseball. Four of ’em have added more value to this point of the season than living legend Mike Trout.

So … which player is likeliest to sustain something approaching their early 2020 star turn? (In alphabetical order.)

JaCoby Jones, OF, Tigers: .333/.391/.786 through 46 plate appearances. The 28-year-old hadn’t done much with his first thousand or so MLB plate appearances, but he’s suddenly knocking the socks off of the ball. Though his K/BB numbers are about as shrug-worthy as before, Jones is suddenly showing a whole lotta slug. He’s in the top ten percent leaguewide in barrel percentage and hard contact rate.

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners: .373/.440/.567 through 75 plate appearances. An elite draft prospect, Lewis saw his development stunted by injuries. He’s now coming into his own, though it’s hard to look past that glaring .512 batting average on balls in play. There are a lot of strikeouts, too, though Lewis is also walking at a decent clip (10.7%). While Statcast isn’t impressed with how hard he hits the ball, it does credit him with a strong barrel percentage and good wheels.

Dylan Moore, OF, Mariners: .333/.388/.689 through 49 plate appearances. This looks to be a pretty clear instance of a nice dozen-game hot streak that’ll be hard to keep up. Moore is carrying a 30.6% walk rate and 4.1% K rate while benefiting from a hefty .423 BABIP. Then again, Moore is legitimately hammering the ball, ranking among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and exit velocity. Perhaps he’s on to something here.

Austin Slater, OF, Giants: .333/.450/.667 through 40 plate appearances. Slater is running and gunning thus far, logging three homers and four swiped bags while sporting a solid 12.5% walk rate. That 208 wRC+ really pops for a guy that contributes in other areas of the game. Slater has had his chances before and hadn’t ever put it all together. But he was quite good at Triple-A and held his own in the majors in 2019. Could he be turning into a quality big leaguer?

Donovan Solano, INF, Giants: .458/.476/.661 through 63 plate appearances. This isn’t necessarily a whole new thing so much as a surprising continuation of a nice 2019 showing. But holy smokes, look at that batting average! It’s riding on a mind-blowing .520 BABIP … which follows a .409 mark from last year. Solano isn’t exactly mashing, but he sure is translating his contact ability into results — and not just because of good fortune. Statcast credits him with a 97th percentile expected batting average.

Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants: .306/.442/.629 through 77 plate appearances. Just another San Francisco superstar slugger, no big deal. Like Solano, Yaz 2.0 did turn in very good numbers last year. But we were all prepared to see him step back in 2020, right? Instead, there’s something all the more intriguing going on. Yasztrzemski has already drawn 15 walks to go with his 16 strikeouts on the season, providing yet more evidence that he has really figured things out.

So, which player is most likely to carry this forward? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

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