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MLBTR Poll: Top-5 Free Agent Contracts

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With there’s always quite a lot of room to quibble over free agent rankings, there was really no debate regarding the top handful of talent in this year’s class. (At least, that is, once Marcus Stroman elected to accept the qualifying offer.) After Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, Marcell Ozuna, and DJ LeMahieu — in whatever order; that’s how we had it — the drop-off to the rest of the board was rather pronounced.

As it turned out, those players signed contracts that hewed fairly closely to MLBTR’s predicted ranges. But the market, as always, had a few surprises for our in-house brain trust. In particular, Springer and LeMahieu came away with a fair bit more money than we had anticipated.

Trevor Bauer to Dodgers for three years, $102MM (with two opt-outs): If you’re of the opinion that Bauer is an ace-level hurler, then this deal represents a steal. The Dodgers are paying a premium rate, sure, but without any of the long-term entanglements. Then again, it’s only fair to note that Bauer has completed just one full season with a sub-4.00 ERA.

J.T. Realmuto to Phillies for five years, $115.5MM: This is a lot of coin for a free-agent catcher, but Realmuto is arguably the game’s best all-around backstop and the Phils got an up-close look at him before committing. If you value the hard-to-quantify contributions of a top-shelf catcher, this could be viewed as a bargain. On the other hand, Realmuto will turn thirty before the deal begins and the rigors of the position represent an ever-present concern.

George Springer to Blue Jays for six years, $150MM: Speaking of age, that’s the one real demerit in the situation of Springer, who’ll turn 32 at the tail end of the 2021 campaign. He’s a well-rounded masher who adds value with a versatile glove. If he can turn in a few more premium seasons and then settle in as a high-quality regular at the tail end of his career, Springer could easily reward the Jays for this contract.

Marcell Ozuna to Braves for four years, $65MM: Ozuna is significantly younger than Springer and easily bettered him at the plate in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But Ozuna’s stretches of bliss have surrounded other spans of merely above-average play, and his glove is not as renowned as his bat. While there’s obviously some cause to temper expectations, there’s a realistic scenario where the Atlanta organization achieves huge value in this deal.

DJ LeMahieu to Yankees for six years, $90MM: The idea of a 32-year-old LeMahieu signing a contract like this … well, it still feels a bit preposterous to hot stove watchers of a certain age. But you can threw out what you thought you knew about the guy with the Rockies. He has been on a tear ever since he donned pinstripes. Throw in a quality glove and gravitas, and you’ve got a great finishing piece for any team with championship ambitions. The sixth year feels like a stretch, but it’s important to remember that it was designed to tamp down the annual luxury tax hit for the Bronx Bombers.

So, which of these contracts do you believe was the shrewdest investment from the team perspective? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Jackie Bradley’s Future

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After last night’s agreement between Justin Turner and the Dodgers, Jackie Bradley Jr. stands out as the top remaining free agent position player. The longtime Red Sox center fielder has earned a reputation as one of the game’s top defensive outfielders and is coming off a strong 2020 season at the plate.

It was reported earlier this month Bradley was seeking a long-term deal, potentially even targeting a five-year pact. That’s a rather lofty goal; entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff projected a two-year, $16MM contract for Bradley.

While a five-year deal would register as a major surprise, Bradley has drawn a decent share of reported interest this winter. The Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Astros, Cubs, Phillies and Blue Jays have all been tied to Bradley at various stages of the offseason. Toronto can safely be ruled out, having signed George Springer since engaging with Bradley very early on. The Phillies still have room for a center field upgrade, but it seems unlikely Philadelphia would be willing to make a run at Bradley after spending to re-sign J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius. The Cubs, meanwhile, have since signed Joc Pederson and Jake Marisnick to join Ian Happ and Jason Heyward in the outfield.

That leaves the Mets, Giants, Astros and Red Sox as the likeliest landing spots on paper. We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership to predict Bradley’s destination and contract length.

(poll links for app users)

 

Who Will Be The Last Top-50 Free Agent To Sign?

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After a slow start, the 2020-21 free agent market finally sprung to life over the last few weeks.  The result is a lot of red ink (i.e. signing details) on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only ten of the players that original list remaining without a contract for the 2021 season or beyond.

With less than two weeks to go before Spring Training camps are scheduled to open, the question has gone from “when will anyone sign?” to “who is left to be signed?”  There are still plenty of prominent names remaining, including multiple former All-Stars, Gold Glovers, a Cy Young Award winner, and former World Series champions — including a very prominent member of the defending champion Dodgers.

Any of these players could sign at any time, of course, but it’s possible Yadier Molina could be back with the Cardinals very soon, given the reports of an agreement that could be made official now that the Caribbean Series is over.  Justin Turner may also be down to a choice between four teams, and Jackie Bradley Jr. still has interest from a reported half-dozen teams.

With Trevor Bauer now a Dodger, interest seems to be picking up for starting pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker.  That could, in turn, spark some offers further down the ladder for veteran hurlers like Rick Porcello or Cole Hamels, as there hasn’t been much public buzz about either pitcher this winter.

On the bullpen front, Trevor Rosenthal has gotten interest from a few teams this winter, though several of his known suitors have since moved on to other late-game options.  However, the “no such thing as too much pitching” mantra would certainly seem to apply to relievers as well heading into a 2021 season that may see several starters on innings limits as they rebuild arm strength.  That would imply that the likes of Rosenthal and Mark Melancon could still be of interest to teams who already have a closer in place, in an effort to create a super-bullpen.

To add a couple more names to the mix, this poll also includes Brett Gardner and Brad Miller, who were honorable mentions on the original Top 50 list.  They were bumped up to the 50-player slate for MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest after Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman made early exits from the market by accepting qualifying offers.

Of these twelve, who is your pick as the last free agent standing?  (poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yankees’ Recent Deals

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The Yankees agreed to deals with a pair of high-profile players on Friday. They started the day off by coming to terms with their own free agent, infielder DJ LeMahieu, on a six-year contract worth $90MM. In the evening, they went outside the organization to add right-hander Corey Kluber. Unsurprisingly, that was a much shorter deal, with Kluber headed to the Bronx for a single year at $11MM.

LeMahieu’s contract came in a bit above pre-offseason expectations. Entering the winter, MLBTR forecasted a four-year, $68MM figure for the reigning AL MVP finalist. LeMahieu eclipsed that mark by more than $20MM, albeit over an additional two years. The six-year term is no doubt a luxury tax workaround. (Teams’ luxury tax figures are calculated by taking a contract’s average annual value, so extending the deal an extra year reduces the Yankees’ per-season luxury tax hit).

Kluber, on the other hand, landed right in line with MLBTR’s prediction (one-year, $12MM). The two-time Cy Young winner is a bit of a wild card after pitching just 36.2 innings combined over the last two seasons. But he’d generally impressed teams at a showcase earlier this week and has an atypical level of upside for an addition at that price point.

How does the readership feel about the Yankees’ recent acquisitions?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

MLBTR Poll: Let’s Be The Braves’ Arbitration Panel

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The Braves are heading to arbitration hearings with Dansby Swanson and Mike Soroka. That is, unless they sign multi-year deals beforehand, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Otherwise, Atlanta will have a pair of interesting arbitration cases on their hands.

Swanson enjoyed a BABIP-driven spike in production over 2020’s 60-game season, logging a career-high 2.9 bWAR while appearing in all 60 games. That’s not an extrapolated career-high, that was Swanson arguably accomplishing more in his 264 plate appearances than he’d managed in 545, 533, or 551 plate appearances in 2019, 2018, or 2017, respectively. Not knowing how the arbitration panel is going to treat the truncated season makes evaluating Swanson’s season a tough task. Still, team and player aren’t that far apart, with the Braves submitting $6MM to Swanson’s $6.7MM, per O’Brien.

Soroka might be an even tougher case to decide, as the 23-year-old heads to arbitration for the first time. Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular thus far with a 2.86 career ERA/3.40 FIP, a 50.9 percent groundball rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, and 6.3 percent walk rate. Injuries have been the bugaboo for the Soroka, however, evidenced by a mere 214 innings across three seasons. Shoulder issues limited Soroka to just five starts in 2018, and he tore his Achilles just three starts into 2020.

In between, however, Soroka blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. In 2019, he made 29 starts, logged 174 2/3 innings, and pitched to a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate. While Soroka’s heavy sinker seems to gift him with the ability to depress launch angles and burn worms, not all of Soroka’s advanced metrics are sterling. Even in 2019 he gave up a fair amount of hard contact (37.5 percent hard hit rate) and enjoyed a sub-average .280 BABIP that may not be repeatable. He finished the year with a 4.12 expected ERA, per Statcast.

O’Brien seems to think a long-term deal is a definite possibility for Soroka, but it would be a risky move for the Braves given Soroka’s injury history. Assuming Soroka doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll head to arbitration having submitted a $2.8MM salary for 2021, with the Braves countering at $2.1MM.

Predicting what arbitration panels will do is a fool’s errand, so let’s leave them to their work and decide this for ourselves. (poll links for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Francisco Lindor Trade

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The Mets and Indians made perhaps the biggest trade of the offseason earlier this week. Star shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco are now Mets. They represent the biggest pair of additions for a New York club that has been expected all offseason to pursue star-level talent.

Lindor, of course, was seen as a near-lock to be moved all winter. The Indians seemingly never came close to working out an extension with the four-time All-Star. With Lindor one season removed from hitting free agency, it looked apparent Cleveland would trade him away. Carrasco was less obviously going to be moved this winter, but it wasn’t a huge surprise the Indians parted with him, either. Carrasco’s two-year, $27MM deal (with a 2023 option) marked the biggest guaranteed contract on Cleveland’s books. Lindor’s projected arbitration range ($17.5MM — $21.5MM) would’ve easily been the Indians’ largest 2021 expense.

Each of Lindor and Carrasco remains a bargain at those rates relative to their on-field production. But Cleveland’s ownership has signaled a desire to cut payroll this winter; it wasn’t hard to foresee that coming via jettisoning the team’s highest-paid players. Cleveland’s estimated $40MM payroll, per Roster Resource, is now less than half the team’s 2020 season-opening outlay (prior to prorating).

While finances were an obvious element of the trade, it wasn’t a mere salary dump. The Indians brought in four young players, two of whom are immediate big leaguers. Amed Rosario is a former elite prospect who has been up and down over his first three-plus MLB seasons. Andrés Giménez was a highly-regarded farmhand himself and had a decent if unspectacular rookie year. The pair of prospects, right-hander Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene, are recent high school draftees. They rank 25th and 28th, respectively, in the Indians’ farm system at FanGraphs.

Turning things over to the readership, how did each team fare in this week’s blockbuster?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

MLBTR Poll: Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber’s Potential?

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In a sport known for its protracted regular season and voluminous historical records – playing for a franchise that had been without a championship crown for over a century – Kyle Schwarber established his legacy over a seven-game stretch of the 2016 playoffs. Though he only appeared in five games of the World Series, physical perseverance, inspired play and a confident batting eye turned Schwarber into a Chicago legend at the tender age of 23. His presence as a designated hitter for road contests at Progressive Field played no small part in turning the tide on a 3-1 series deficit (though starting Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks in consecutive games didn’t hurt either). Schwarber reached base in half of his 20 plate appearances, and the Cubs won three of four games in Cleveland to take the crown.

While the baseball community largely recognizes that playoff performance is not predictive – nor repeatable – Schwarber is living proof that small samples, at times, do prove enduring. Schwarber will be memorialized for generations in Chicago for his appearance against the Cleveland Indians in 2016.

His myth-making return from season-ending injury is also a warning against our tendency to muddle the narrative of heroes. In that World Series, Schwarber did lengthen the lineup and provide a fear factor that was easier to see in real-time than in box scores after the fact, but it’s fair to wonder if his impact in Cleveland didn’t unwittingly get conflated with his status as a top prospect and his gargantuan output in the 2015 playoffs, when he hit .333/.419/.889 with five home runs in nine playoff games. The years since have only further complicated our ability to manufacture a compact narrative for Schwarber as a ballplayer. For starters, even a .136/.321/.273 line with just one home run, one RBI, two runs scored, and a negative championship win probability over 10 playoff games since 2016 hasn’t totally erased his reputation as a “championship proven” bat.

Further, his stat line in any given year is like an optical illusion (is he black and blue or white and gold?). His production hasn’t matched his reputation, and the advanced metrics don’t match the on-field production. In 2018, Schwarber hit a high-water mark by measure of 3.2 fWAR despite a .238 batting average and career-low 41.5 hard hit percentage. In 2019, he actualizes his “slugger” persona with a .531 slugging percentage, 29 doubles, and 38 home runs. He posted new highs with a 120 wRC+, .282 ISO, and 50.9 hard hit percentage – the third-highest mark in the Majors. The total package still amounted to just 2.1 bWAR/2.6 fWAR – solid numbers, but shy of the line for a presumed All-Star.

Then 2020 happened. His launch angle plummeted, and his .219 BABIP, .204 ISO, .188/.308/.393 line, and 90 wRC+ were all career-worst numbers. When the Cubs non-tendered him rather than pay the projected $7MM to $9MM in arbitration, few were surprised.

But the Nationals paid him $10MM for the 2021 season anyway – and that wasn’t shocking either. After all, Schwarber’s batted ball numbers have made him a popular bounce-back candidate among the Statcast crowd, and it’s not hard to see why: His resume includes finishing in the 95th percentile by exit velocity in 2019 and 2020, the 92nd percentile by barrel percentage in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and that 99th percentile mark by hard hit percentage in 2019.

At the same time, it’s worth considering how much of a role his subpar speed and 28 percent career strikeout rate play in his “under-performance.” He’s not the worst defender in the world, but negative three defensive runs saved in each of the last two seasons doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll become a plus on that end of the field. Of course, with Victor Robles beside him in the outfield and Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg (hopefully) missing bats on a regular basis, the Nats seem to believe he doesn’t have to be a gold glove candidate. Besides, should the designated hitter make its way permanently to the National League, he may not have to spend every day in the grass.

The Nationals hope a reunion with Dave Martinez will provide Schwarber a comfortable environment to reset after a disappointing final season in Chicago. Beyond his relationship with Martinez – his bench coach for the first three years of his career – Schwarber will have a new social circle with whom to yuk it up about the ins-and-outs of hitting. That group will include hitting coach Kevin Long, his collegiate buddy Trea Turner, fellow new kid Josh Bell, and phenom Juan Soto. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato provides video of Schwarber himself breaking down his new team (via Twitter).

Still very much in his prime entering his age-28 season, Schwarber may yet fulfill the legendary potential he established in the 2016 World Series. Given the new faces in the division and the now-rote proficiency of the three-time defending division champion Braves, the Nationals are counting on a big season from Schwarber to help the franchise rebound from a difficult 2020.

All that said, let’s keep this simple. Will Dave Martinez and the Nationals be able to unlock Schwarber’s potential and see him become a devastating middle-of-the-order presence? Or will Schwarber’s Statcast profile continue to betray him as he hits the ball hard but not often enough to truly classify as an elite bat?

Of course, there are many different ways to skin this cat, so let me offer this final framework as one way to simplify. Schwarber’s value proposition is his bat. By wRC+, which attempts to measure offensive contribution, adjusted for park and league, Schwarber has created 13 more runs than the average player over his career. As noted above, his career-high over a full season is 120 wRC+. But he also produced a 131 wRC+ over 273 plate appearances as a rookie in 2015. For context, 35 players posted a wRC+ higher than 130 in 2019, 24 managed that mark in 2018. Can Schwarber be one of those guys in 2021?

(poll link for app users)

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Tomoyuki Sugano?

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Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window.  January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.

A move to North America is not guaranteed, however.  As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision.  As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.

Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number.  Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running.  The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract.  The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.

This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course.  Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020.  As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender.  Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.

The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman.  Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter.  Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.

The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano.  Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.

With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership.  Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade

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Right-hander Yu Darvish came close to winning his first Cy Young award last season, finishing second in the voting to Trevor Bauer, but that wasn’t enough to keep him in a Cubs uniform. The Cubs decided last Sunday to trade Darvish to the Padres in a deal that was officially completed earlier this week. Chicago received five players in return for Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini, though whether the team made the right call is certainly up for debate.

In moving Darvish, the cost-cutting Cubs saved almost all of the $62MM remaining ($59MM, to be exact) on the six-year, $126MM contract they gave the former Ranger and Dodger before 2018. Caratini, meanwhile, is only due a little over $1MM next season via arbitration, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2023. So, in the end, the Cubs let go of a front-line starter and a solid, inexpensive catcher in this deal. The Padres, who are clearly pushing for a World Series, should benefit in at least the near term. After all, they upgraded their roster – one that went 37-23 in 2020 – without surrendering any of their absolute best prospects.

For parting with Darvish and Caratini, the Cubs received a bit of immediate help in righty Zach Davies, who was outstanding in his lone season with the Padres last year. But the 27-year-old Davies is only controllable through next season, meaning he may not be a long-term piece for the Cubs, and the ex-Brewer has been more of a solid starter than a top-of-the-line hurler for most of his career. In other words, the Cubs can’t realistically expect the 2021 version of Davies to turn in production similar to the output Darvish gave them last season.

Along with Davies, the Cubs secured some good prospects in a pair of shortstops – Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana – as well as two outfielders in Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. All four ranked among the top 20 farmhands in a very good Padres system at the time of the trade. MLB.com now places Preciado 10th, Caissie 11th, Santana 17th and Mena 18th among Cubs prospects. The Cubs are dreaming on those four eventually turning into legitimate major leaguers, but even if that does happen, it’s going to take some time. Aside from Santana, who turned 20 last month, every member of the group is a teenager.

(Poll links for app users: Padres, Cubs)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Blake Snell Trade

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Not far removed from their first playoff season since 2006, the Padres have dominated headlines in Major League Baseball over the past couple days. They agreed to sign highly touted Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, and it’s possible they’ll follow it up by acquiring 2020 NL Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish from the Cubs before the day is out. And prior to reeling in Kim (and potentially Darvish), the Padres made a major addition to their rotation when they agreed to land left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays late Sunday night.

In Snell, the Padres are getting a 28-year-old former AL Cy Young winner (2018) who’s due a more-than-reasonable $39MM through 2023. Snell wasn’t able to replicate the numbers from his career season over the past two years, but he was hardly a slouch during that span. In his last season in Tampa Bay, which won the AL pennant, Snell threw 50 innings and put up a 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP with 11.34 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a personal-best 49.2 percent groundball rate, all while continuing to average upward of 95 mph on his fastball. The Padres’ hope is that Snell (and perhaps Darvish, if they’re able to complete that trade) will help replace righty Mike Clevinger – a blockbuster 2020 pickup who will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November.

Meanwhile, although some may roll their eyes at the small-budget Rays for trading a reasonably priced, high-end starter in the wake of a World Series-bound year, it does appear they’ll receive a significant haul in this swap. The club’s slated to get two promising righties – Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox – as well as a pair of young catchers in Francisco Mejia and Blake Hunt.

The 21-year-old Patino, who made a brief major league debut last season, was Baseball America’s 18th-best prospect entering the campaign; Wilcox was a third-round pick in last summer’s draft, but he was seen as a first-round talent – which led the Padres to give him a record bonus worth $3.3MM; Mejia was a star prospect in his own right in earlier years, though the 25-year-old hasn’t established himself as a quality major leaguer since he debuted in 2017; and Hunt, 22, looks like a top 100-caliber prospect now, per Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs.

All said, this looks like another win-now move for San Diego, which could emerge as a serious championship contender in 2021. On the other hand, in light of this deal, it’s easy to say the Rays will take a step back next year. However, it appears they got an impressive return, and considering the work the Rays’ front office has done with few financial resources, it may be wise to give them the benefit of the doubt.

How would you grade the trade? (Poll links for app users: Padres, Rays)

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