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Reds Acquire Kevin Newman

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The Reds and Pirates agreed to an intra-divisional trade that sends infielder Kevin Newman to Cincinnati for reliever Dauri Moreta. Both teams have announced the deal.

Newman changes organizations for the first time in his career. Pittsburgh selected him with the 19th overall pick in the 2015 draft, and he reached the majors roughly three years later. He struggled in 31 games down the stretch as a rookie, but he had a solid sophomore showing. The University of Arizona product hit .308/.353/.446 across 531 plate appearances in 2019, securing the primary shortstop job in the process.

He held the role for the next couple seasons, but his offensive productivity wilted. Newman had well below-average numbers in both 2020-21, combining to hit just .226/.268/.302 through 726 plate appearances. Even with strong defensive metrics in 2021, his overall production hovered right around replacement level. The rebuilding Bucs continued to give him opportunities, however, and he righted the ship enough this year they managed to find a trade partner.

The 29-year-old posted a .274/.316/.372 mark over 309 plate appearances this past season. He lost over two months to a left groin strain mid-year, but his rate production was his best since 2019. The righty hitter’s overall offensive profile hasn’t much changed throughout his career. Newman makes a ton of contact, putting the ball in play early in counts to suppress both his strikeout and walk totals. He has very little power, with just 20 career home runs — 12 of which came during a 2019 season that saw arguably the liveliest ball in league history. He’s reliant on a quality batting average on balls in play to prop up his numbers but looks like a decent bottom-0f-the-lineup option when enough singles drop in.

Newman’s calling card is his ability to play up the middle. He’s logged over 2500 big league innings at shortstop, typically rating at or a bit below league average. He drew quality marks in 2021, but for his career, he’s been an estimated nine runs below average according to Defensive Runs Saved and six runs below par in the estimation of Statcast. Public metrics have rated him slightly below average in just under 800 career frames at second base as well.

The presence of Oneil Cruz in Pittsburgh displaced Newman at shortstop. The Bucs could’ve relied upon him at second base, but they may prefer to take a longer look at 23-year-old Rodolfo Castro with an eye towards eventually turning things to a prospect like Nick Gonzales or Liover Peguero.

Cincinnati has less clarity at shortstop with José Barrero thus far failing to seize the position. The Reds dealt Kyle Farmer to the Twins this evening and could use a stable option to hold down the position until the arrival of top prospect Elly De La Cruz, who turns 21 in January and finished this year in Double-A. Newman is arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.8MM salary; he’s controllable through 2024.

Moreta, 26, received his first big league call late in 2021. The 6’2″ righty pitched in four games down the stretch but got some decent run this past season. The Reds called upon Moreta 35 times in relief, and he worked to a 5.40 ERA through 38 1/3 innings. Moreta punched out a decent 24.4% of opponents against an average 8.1% walk rate, but he was done in by major home run issues. He surrendered 10 longballs (an average of 2.35 per nine innings), thanks in large part to a very low 32.7% ground-ball rate.

That extreme fly-ball propensity made him a rough fit for Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home environment, but he could have a better go in the more spacious PNC Park. Moreta has a fastball that sits just under 96 MPH on average, and he missed bats on a solid 11% of his offerings this year. With a more favorable home park, it’s possible he translates those decent strikeout and walk numbers into viable middle innings work. He won’t reach arbitration until at least the end of the 2024 campaign, and he can still be optioned to the minor leagues in each of the next two seasons. He’s a big league ready middle relief depth option.

Ken Rosenthal and Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic first reported the Reds were acquiring Newman. Biertempfel was first to report Cincinnati would receive Moreta in return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Acquire Kyle Farmer

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The Reds and Twins agreed on a Friday evening trade sending infielder Kyle Farmer from Cincinnati to Minnesota. The Reds landed right-hander Casey Legumina in return. Farmer is second year arbitration-eligible, and is projected to make $5.9MM, according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ predictions.

Farmer, 32, turned in a solid, if unspectacular, season for the Reds, batting .255/.315/.386 with 14 home runs. That was good for a wRC+ of 90, or ten percent worse than league average. He split time between short (98 games) and third base (36 games), grading out better at third where he was worth two Outs Above Average, against -3 at shortstop.

Originally drafted as a catcher in the eighth round of the 2013 draft by the Dodgers, Farmer made his debut 2017 with L.A. He’d go on to make 97 plate appearances over the next two seasons, working mostly at catcher and third base, before going to the Reds as part of a blockbuster deal involving Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood.

The Reds used him in 15 games at catcher in 2019, but he mostly bounced around the infield positions and that wound up being the last of his time behind the plate. He’d spent the next couple of seasons as a utility infielder before winning their starting shortstop job for 2021. While he turned in a .263/.316/.416 line with 16 home runs that year, he did play some above-average defense, earning six Outs Above Average.

While Farmer’s numbers have never really stood out, he’s generally been a sound contributor and has been worth 3.3 fWAR across 292 games over the past couple of seasons. He can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons, so he won’t reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign.

It’s the second major trade of the day for the Twins, after they shipped out Gio Urshela and his projected $9.2MM salary. Urshela was a bit more valuable for the Twins last year (2.4 fWAR), but Farmer offers a saving of around $3MM, and greater positional flexibility. It’s entirely possible Farmer returns to a utility role in Minnesota. With Urshela out the door, the Twins could well go with Jose Miranda and Luis Arraez at the corners, with Jorge Polanco at second. That’d mean either Farmer or an external addition at shortstop, but regardless, the arrival of Farmer gives them a bit more flexibility there.

Legumina started 2022 at High-A but spent much of the season at Double-A. He struggled as a starter, making 16 starts this year with a 5.23 ERA, striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings. As a result of his struggles, the Twins moved him to the bullpen and he immediately stood out. There, the 25-year-old threw 22 1/3 innings of 3.57 ERA, with his strikeouts rising to 12.7 per nine innings. Legumina has a four pitch mix, combining a mid-90s fastball with a slider, changeup and curveball.

The eighth round draft pick from 2019 was added to the Twins 40-man roster a few days ago ahead of the Rule 5 draft protection deadline, so he’ll take a spot on the Reds 40-man moving forward as well.

Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of the Athletic first reported the Reds and Twins were in agreement on a trade sending Farmer to Minnesota. C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic was first to report Cincinnati would receive Legumina in return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Non-Tender Brian Anderson, Nick Neidert

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The Marlins have non-tendered third baseman Brian Anderson and right-hander Nick Neidert, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter links).

Anderson, 29, isn’t far removed from being a core contributor and potential extension candidate with the Marlins. The former No. 76 overall draft pick posted respectable numbers through 95 plate appearances at age 24 in his MLB debut back in 2017, and by the 2018 season he’d established himself as a fixture in the Miami lineup. From 2018-20, Anderson appeared in 341 games, tallied 1419 plate appearances and recorded a solid .266/.350/.436 slash line. He never posted huge home run totals — career-high 20 in 2019 — but showed plenty of doubles power in the Marlins’ spacious home park, logging 74 doubles in that time.

Originally a third baseman, Anderson spent much of the 2018 season in right field before beginning to split his time between right field and the hot corner in 2019. He’s logged average defensive grades across the board at third base in his career and been an above-average right fielder in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating (though Statcast, notably, pegs him as a below-average defender in right).

The past two seasons haven’t been as productive. Anderson has been dogged by oblique, shoulder and back injuries dating back to Opening Day 2021. He’s still managed a .233/.321/.359 batting line in that time (93 wRC+), but Anderson has only been healthy enough to take the field  for 165 games/647 plate appearances over the past two seasons. Coupled with a projected $5.2MM salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), Anderson was cut loose by a Marlins club that is seeking offense upgrades at multiple positions. He’d have been a free agent next winter anyhow, given his five-plus years of MLB service time, but Anderson will reach the market earlier than scheduled and now be able to field interest from all 29 other clubs.

Neidert, 26 on Sunday, was a more straightforward decision. While he once ranked as one of the better pitching prospects in Miami’s system, he’s totaled 49 big league innings across the past three seasons and worked to a 4.59 ERA with just a 13.3% strikeout rate against an 11.8% walk rate.

Neidert has posted strong numbers in Triple-A over the past couple seasons, so it’s possible the Fish will take advantage of the fact that today is the only time of year a player can be cut loose without having to be subjected to waivers — immediately removing him from the 40-man roster and quickly looking to re-sign him to a minor league contract. Neidert has one minor league option year remaining, though, and could appeal to some pitching-needy clubs around the league.

Tigers Non-Tender Jeimer Candelario

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The Tigers are non-tendering third baseman Jeimer Candelario, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press (Twitter link). He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7MM salary.

Candelario has been the Tigers primary third baseman for the past five seasons. Originally acquired from the Cubs in a 2017 trade, he was manning the hot corner at Comerica Park by the start of the following year. Candelario posted below-average numbers for his first two seasons, but the switch-hitting infielder showed some promise with a .297/.369/.503 line in 52 games during the abbreviated 2020 campaign.

It never looked likely he’d replicate quite that level of production over a full season, but Candelario backed up his numbers with another impressive year. Through 626 trips to the plate in 2021, he posted a .271/.351/.443 showing with 16 longballs and 42 doubles. That brought his two-year line to .278/.356/.458 in more than 800 plate appearances.

Candelario looked like an above-average regular at the hot corner, a productive middle-of-the-order bat with capable defensive marks. Like much of the Detroit lineup, he fell off sharply in 2022. Candelario’s .217/.272/.361 line across 124 games proved a major disappointment. He had some unfortunate batted ball marks, with a .257 average on balls in play well shy of both the .290 league figure and the career .308 BABIP which Candelario carried into the season.

A rebound in his ball in play results would go a long way towards getting things back on track, but the dip isn’t solely attributable to poor luck. Candelario’s 34.6% hard contact rate was almost five percentage points lower than his 2021 mark and down 12 points from where it sat in 2020. He saw a similar decline in his average exit velocity. He hit more ground balls and pop-ups than he had the previous two seasons, while his line drive rate sunk.

Whether to place a roughly $7MM bet on Candelario to right the ship for his final season of arbitration was a key early decision for new president of baseball operations Scott Harris. Detroit opted against doing so, and they could look for third base help this offseason as a result. The Tigers have Ryan Kreidler as an in-house option to play somewhere on the infield, with third base now standing as the clearest path to playing time. Should Detroit add depth at the hot corner in the coming months, Kreidler could push Jonathan Schoop for playing time at second base.

Further thinning their infield depth, Detroit non-tendered utility players Harold Castro and Willi Castro. Both were eligible for arbitration for the first time and projected for salaries in the $2MM range. They each have some infield versatility and bat-to-ball skills, but neither draws many walks or hits for power. The Tigers will look elsewhere for bench depth. Detroit also non-tendered a number of players — Michael Papierski, Miguel Díaz, Kyle Funkhouser and Brendon Davis — who’d previously been designated for assignment.

Candelario, despite his down year, is one of the better free agent options available in a weak third base class. Justin Turner is the top option after being bought out by the Dodgers, while players like Evan Longoria, Jace Peterson and fellow non-tender Brian Anderson make up the next tier.

Nationals Planning To Non-Tender Luke Voit, Erick Fedde

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The Nationals are planning to non-tender first baseman Luke Voit and right-hander Erick Fedde, according to Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post.

Voit, 32 in February, has been on quite the roller coaster over the past few years. Drafted and developed by the Cardinals, he went to the Yankees in a deadline deal in 2018 with Giovanny Gallegos and Chasen Shreve going the other way. There was a period where that seemed like a steal for the Yankees, as Voit hit 14 home runs in just 39 games after the deal in 2018. He followed that up with a generally solid 2019 campaign that saw him hit 21 long balls and slash .263/.378/.464 for a wRC+ of 126. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he somehow hit more home runs than the year prior, getting to 22, the most of anyone in the majors that year.

In 2021, however, he dealt with knee injuries for much of the campaign and only got into 68 contests. The club acquired Anthony Rizzo at the deadline to take over first base duties and then traded Voit to the Padres in the offseason. With San Diego, he posted a serviceable line of .225/.317/.416 for a wRC+ of 110, above league average but below his previous production. As the trade deadline neared, the Friars reportedly agreed to include Eric Hosmer in the trade that was to send Juan Soto and Josh Bell to San Diego. However, Hosmer used his limited no-trade clause to block the deal and the Padres sent Voit to Washington instead. After the deal, he hit .228/.295/.381 for a wRC+ of 90.

Voit initially qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player after 2020, meaning he was set to go through the process for a third time this winter. Because of his tremendous power, he earned a $4.7MM salary in 2021 and $5.25MM in 2022. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a raise to $8.2MM next year, but it appears the Nats aren’t willing to meet that price.

Voit will now become a free agent, joining a first base free agent market topped by names like Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Trey Mancini and Yuli Gurriel. Given his tremendous power, Voit will surely garner some level of interest. But he’s a one-dimensional contributor, having never been considered a strong defender or a burner on the basepaths.

As for Fedde, 30 in February, he was a first-round draft choice of the club back in 2014. He appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100 list in three straight years beginning in 2015. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to deliver on that hype so far, posting a 5.41 ERA in 454 1/3 innings since debuting in 2017. His 48.9% ground ball rate in that time is fairly strong, but his 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate are both subpar. He qualified for arbitration the first time a year ago and got a pay bump to $2.15MM. He was projected to get up to $3.6MM for next year but it seems the Nats will move on after he posted a 5.81 ERA here in 2022. He’ll head to the open market and see if another team wants to take a shot on him based on his former prospect pedigree.

Cardinals Non-Tender Alex Reyes

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The Cardinals announced they’re not tendering a contract to right-hander Alex Reyes or outfielder Ben DeLuzio. Both players head to free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had predicted a $2.85MM arbitration salary for Reyes, while DeLuzio is not eligible for arbitration.

Reyes was once touted as one of the best prospects in all of baseball, regularly featuring on various publication’s top-100 lists, including a fourth-place ranking on Baseball America’s pre-2017 list of the best prospects in baseball. The foundation of that was some elite stuff, headlined by a triple-digit fastball and a lethal curveball.

After blowing away minor league batters, he made his big league debut in 2016 and didn’t disappoint. The then-21-year-old tossed 46 innings of 1.57 ERA ball, giving up just one home run and striking out batters 27.5% of the time. He looked every bit a major league pitcher, and looked certain to be a atop Cardinal rotations for many years to come.

Tommy John surgery prior would wipe out his 2017 campaign, but he looked like he was back to his best on minor league rehab stints in 2018, striking out 44 batters across 23 innings and four starts. Yet disaster would strike after Reyes was activated, as he went down just four innings into his first start back, and eventually undergoing season-ending surgery on a torn tendon in his lat.

He’d return in 2019, but walked six batters in three innings and was immediately optioned to the minor leagues. That began yet another injury-plagued year and Reyes would only add 37 1/3 innings of 6.03 ERA ball in the minors, as he again spent most of the season on the injured list.

The Cardinals brought him back in 2020, but now opted to utilize him out of the bullpen. While the walks were still a concern (16.3%), Reyes posted the best season since his 2016 effort, tossing 19 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, striking out batters 31.2% of the time. He followed that up with a lights out start to the 2021 campaign, pitching to a 1.52 ERA as St Louis’ closer and earning a trip to the All Star game. The second half was a different story though, and Reyes was dropped from the closer role and wound up with a dismal 5.52 second half ERA.

Injury problems returned again in 2022, and Reyes underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in May wiping out his season and leading the Cardinals to move on from him today. As it went, that rookie season accounted for 1.3 of his career 1.7 fWAR, an unfortunate return for a player who was once seen as a foundation piece in St Louis.

With that being said, his raw stuff still appears to be there, and despite all the injury problems his velocity has remained steadily in the upper-90s. Depending on his health, Reyes could make a very attractive reclamation project for any number of teams. He’s only 28, and teams would certainly love the opportunity to take a chance on an arm like his.

DeLuzio is the other Cardinal to be non-tendered. The center fielder appeared in 22 games in 2022, mostly as a defensive replacement as he made just 25 plate appearances, batting .150/.292/.200. Though many of the players being non-tendered today are arbitration-eligible, it’s not uncommon to see non-arbitration players informed they won’t receive a contract, as the Cardinals have done here to free up a 40-man spot.

Angels Acquire Gio Urshela From Twins

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The Angels bolstered their infield depth on non-tender day, announcing the acquisition of Gio Urshela from the Twins. Pitching prospect Alejandro Hidalgo lands in Minnesota on a one-for-one swap.

It’s the second consecutive offseason in which Urshela finds himself on the move. Minnesota acquired him alongside Gary Sánchez in the Spring Training blockbuster that sent Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Yankees. The deal was in large part about offloading the final three years of Donaldson’s contract, but Sánchez and Urshela each played key roles on the 2022 club.

Urshela, 31, spent the year as the Twins’ primary third baseman. He hit .285/.338/.429 with 13 home runs and 27 doubles across 551 trips to the plate. It was a step up from the .267/.301/.419 showing he’d posted during his final season in the Bronx, particularly when one considers offense around the league dropped from 2021 to ’22. Urshela cut his strikeout rate from a career-worst 24.7% to just 17.4%, making contact on an above-average 81% of his swings.

The Colombian-born infielder now owns a .290/.336/.463 line in over 1600 plate appearances since breaking out in 2019. He’s a quality contact hitter with solid gap power who has twice topped 25 doubles in a season. Urshela has only once topped 14 longballs, when he hit 21 during a 2019 season that featured an especially lively ball, and he doesn’t draw many walks. Yet he consistently hits for solid batting averages with enough doubles to make a decent impact from a power perspective. Overall, his offensive production over the last four years has been 18 percentage points better than the league average, in the measure of wRC+.

Urshela has a strong defensive reputation, although he’s gotten mixed reviews from public metrics for his glovework. Defensive Runs Saved has typically been fond of his work, pegging him as a cumulative five runs better than average at the hot corner over the last four seasons. Statcast has been far more bearish, rating him as below average each season and pegging him a total of 14 runs below par. Its Outs Above Average metric has docked Urshela for his lateral range in both directions.

The general perception of Urshela’s glovework seems to lead more towards him being an average to slightly above-average defender. It’d appear the Halos feel similarly, as it’s possible he ends up assuming a more demanding position in Anaheim than he has in his previous stops. The Angels have Anthony Rendon locked in at third base, and while the two-time Silver Slugger award winner has battled his share of injury issues in recent years, he’ll surely be in the lineup most days when healthy.

That’d seem to point towards Urshela getting more action in the middle infield, particularly at shortstop. The Angels got almost no offensive production at shortstop this past season, with Andrew Velazquez taking the bulk of the workload. Anaheim has David Fletcher to man one of the middle infield positions, with the bulk of his MLB experience coming at second base. Urshela looks as if he’ll be penciled in as the primary shortstop, where he has just 288 career innings at the highest level. That’d push Luis Rengifo into a utility role, but Urshela would be capable of kicking back over to third base if Rendon battles renewed injury concerns.

Urshela’s a short-term solution, as he has between five and six years of major league service. He’s in his final season of arbitration eligibility and will be a free agent at the end of the 2023 campaign. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $9.2MM salary, which’ll bring the Halos’ projected payroll up past $181MM, per Roster Resource. That’s not far off their approximate $188MM Opening Day mark from this past season, which was a franchise record. With owner Arte Moreno exploring a sale of the franchise, it’s not clear how much budgetary space is available for general manager Perry Minasian and his staff. They’re clearly attempting to reload in an effort at snapping their playoff drought, previously adding starter Tyler Anderson on a three-year, $39MM free agent deal that also cost them a draft choice.

The Twins subtract from the big league roster, but they figure to allocate the money they would have had to commit to Urshela to upgrades elsewhere on the roster. As MLBTR explored last month, dealing the veteran to free some payroll space looked like a possibility in light of their infield depth.

Minnesota has young corner infielder José Miranda capable of stepping in at the hot corner after a .268/.325/.426 showing in 483 plate appearances as a rookie. The 24-year-old has some defensive question marks, but he came up through the minor league ranks as a third baseman. He spent the bulk of his innings at first base this year, but kicking him back up the defensive spectrum could allow them to incorporate players like Alex Kirilloff and Luis Arraez more often at first. It also opens the possibility of the Twins dipping into free agency or trade for a traditional first base/DH slugger.

Minnesota also adds a young arm to the lower levels of the farm system. Hidalgo is a 19-year-old righty out of Venezuela. He made 10 starts with the Angels’ Low-A affiliate in Inland Empire, allowing a 4.62 ERA across 39 innings. Hidalgo struck out an excellent 33.1% of opposing hitters, but a 10.9% walk rate demonstrates he’s still battling control issues common for teenage hurlers. Baseball America slotted him 18th in the Angels system midseason, praising a potentially plus curveball and writing that his fastball reaches into the mid-90s. He’s a lower-level developmental flier who’ll need to be added to Minnesota’s 40-man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft at the end of the 2023 season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Angels were acquiring Urshela for Hidalgo.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies Extend Tyler Kinley

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3:47pm: It’s actually a $6.25MM total for the three years, Alexander clarifies, noting that the $750K buyout on the 2026 option is part of that sum. Kinley will be paid $1.2MM in 2023, $1.3MM in 2024 and $3MM in 2025. The 2026 option is valued at $5MM and comes with a $750K buyout. The 2025 and 2026 seasons contain escalators and incentives based on games finished.

2:34pm: The Rockies announced Friday that they’ve agreed to a three-year contract extension with reliever Tyler Kinley, spanning the 2023-25 seasons. The contract also contains a club option for the 2026 season. Kinley underwent elbow surgery in July that was expected to sideline him for around one year. Ari Alexander of KPRC first reported the agreement, adding that it’ll guarantee Kinley $7MM — $6.25MM in total salary from 2023-25, plus a $5MM option with a $750K buyout.

Tyler Kinley

Kinley, 32 in January, appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season in Colorado prior to his injury. In 24 innings, he held opponents to just two earned runs on 21 hits and six walks with 27 strikeouts. That was good for a 0.75 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate, and Kinley’s sky-high 16.7% swinging-strike rate seemed to portend the potential for even more strikeouts.

The hard-throwing Kinley, whose fastball averaged just shy of 96 mph in 2022, has steadily improved upon his command each season since 2019, dropping his walk rate from a ghastly 16.3% all the way to this year’s 6% mark. Unsurprisingly, the improved command has radically bolstered his results.

Whether Kinley can sustain that level of command remains to be seen. In addition to the general uncertainty that comes with any elbow surgery for a pitcher, Kinley’s 57% first-pitch strike rate in 2022 was actually worse than the 58.8% mark he posted back in 2019, when he walked more than 16% of his opponents. Sustaining such massive gains in walk rate while getting ahead in the count at a lesser rate than when he posted one of baseball’s highest walk rates will be a challenge.

Even if Kinley is able to sustain most of the improvements in his walk rate, there’s still surely some regression in store. The right-hander excelled at limiting home runs in 2019-20, but he didn’t yield a single long ball in this season’s 24 innings. It’s not realistic to expect any pitcher to completely avoid the home run ball, and even a regression to the strong 0.86 HR/9 mark Kinley yielded in 2019-20 would cause a notable uptick in his otherwise pristine ERA.

There’s obviously great risk in extending a 32-year-old reliever — particularly one who’ll miss at least half of the contract’s first season while recovering from elbow surgery. That said, the $7MM term of the three-year deal presents fairly minimal risk. Kinley would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the contract’s first two seasons, with the third year and the potential club option season representing would-be free agent campaigns.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $1.3MM salary for Kinley in 2023, and if he returned in good health late in the summer, he’d likely have earned a modest bump on that number. If we assume his final two arb seasons would’ve cost something in the neighborhood of $3MM combined, the Rox are effectively paying $4MM for the right to control his first two free-agent years — only one of which is actually guaranteed to him. Viewed through that lens, the Rox are effectively guaranteeing Kinley’s final two arb seasons for the right to pay him about $8.25MM in his first two free-agent seasons. If Kinley is able to emerge as even a solid middle reliever, that’ll be a justifiable price tag. If not, the sting will be generally minimal, given the affordable nature of the guarantee.

Braves Sign Tyler Matzek To Two-Year Contract

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The Braves announced that they have signed lefty Tyler Matzek to a two-year deal worth $3.1MM. There’s also a $5.5MM club option for 2025 with no buyout. He’ll make $1.2MM in the first year and $1.9MM in the second, according to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Matzek had Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 season.

Matzek, 32, has been a feel-good story in recent years, as he was away from baseball for a while due to “the yips.” He pitched for the Rockies in 2014 and 2015 but then dealt with control problems so bad that he was relegated to the minors for chunks of the 2016-2019 period, including missing the 2017 season entirely and pitching in indy ball in 2018. He eventually made his way back to the majors and established himself as a useful piece of the Atlanta bullpen. From 2020 to the present, he’s thrown 135 2/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 38.2% ground ball rate and 27.4% strikeout rate, despite a high 13.4% walk rate.

Unfortunately, his story hit a snag at the end of this season, as he was left off the club’s NLDS roster due to elbow discomfort. The next day, it was announced that he would require Tommy John surgery. Given the typical 12-18 months required to recover from such a procedure, Matzek will almost certainly miss the entire 2023 campaign.

He went into this winter with just over four years of MLB service time, meaning he still had two more years of club control via the arbitration process. Given the lengthy absence he’s facing, Atlanta could have considered non-tendering him before tonight’s deadline, but they have instead agreed to a contract that will cover both his remaining arb seasons and potentially one free agent year as well. Matzek made $1.4MM in 2022 and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, prior to the Tommy John news, for a bump to $1.8MM. Atlanta will pay Matzek around the same rate he got in 2022 and won’t get anything for that investment in 2023 but could see it pay off down the line. For Matzek, it’s possible that he could have found a somewhat similar deal in free agency, as teams occasionally give two-year deals to injured pitchers even when they know they won’t be healthy for the first one. But he’s decided to stick with an organization he knows, continuing to earn a paycheck while rehabbing with the knowledge that he has a job waiting for him once he’s healthy.

Mets To Acquire Elieser Hernandez, Jeff Brigham From Marlins

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12:59pm: The clubs have each announced the deal. In addition to Sanchez, the Marlins will receive a player to be named later or cash.

10:39am: The Mets are set to acquire right-handers Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham from the Marlins, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Minor league righty Franklin Sanchez is headed back to Miami in return. Both Hernandez and Brigham were designated for assignment by the Marlins earlier this week.

The acquisitions of Hernandez and Brigham will give the Mets some needed depth in both the rotation and the bullpen, where they’re currently faced with the prospect of losing significant chunks of their staff. Starters Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker are all free agents, and while the Mets already re-signed Edwin Diaz, they’ve also seen Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Mychal Givens, Trevor May and Trevor Williams reach the open market.

Elieser Hernandez

Both Hernandez and Brigham have a minor league option year remaining — two, in Brigham’s case — and therefore shouldn’t be seen as locks to occupy a spot on next year’s Opening Day staff for the Mets. That said, Hernandez has four-plus year of MLB experience and Brigham has three, so they’re a bit more seasoned than the garden-variety DFA pickup.

Hernandez, in particular, has at times looked like a potentially solid big league starter. From 2020-21, he made 17 starts for the Fish and pitched to a 3.84 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates alike — 26.4% and 5.7%, respectively. That came in a sample of just 77 1/3 innings, thanks largely to a series of injuries. A lat strain in 2020, follow by biceps inflammation and a quad strain in 2021, combined to limit Hernandez’s time on the mound. Still, for a righty who’d been pitching in his age-25 and age-26 seasons, it was an encouraging sample from which to draw.

The 2022 campaign, however, was another story. Hernandez opened the season in Miami’s rotation but lost his spot and wound up splitting his workload evenly between 10 starts and 10 bullpen outings. The end result was a dismal 6.35 ERA, fueled in part by his strikeout rate (21.6%) and walk rate (7.9%) trending in the wrong directions. Home runs have long been an issue for Hernandez but never more so than this past season, when he yielded a staggering 2.74 homers per nine innings pitched. Put another way, a stunning 6.8% of the hitters who came the plate against Hernandez connected on a home run.

Those red flags notwithstanding, Hernandez is a 27-year-old righty who’s only one year removed from quality rotation work spread across two seasons. Since he can be optioned to Triple-A, he’s likely viewed as a sixth or seventh option in the rotation, should injuries necessitate such a move. An excellent Spring Training could put him in the mix for a spot on the Opening Day staff, of course, but even if he’s ticketed for Syracuse to begin the ’23 season, he’s a better rotation fallback than many clubs have in the upper minors. Hernandez is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.8MM in 2023. That’s more than some clubs might prefer to pay for a depth option, but the deep-pocketed Mets are likely more comfortable with that possibility (and could always look to sign Hernandez to a split contract with separate rates of pay in the Majors and Triple-A).

Turning to the 30-year-old Brigham, he’s coming off a more successful 2022 campaign. In 24 innings with the Marlins, he worked to a 3.38 ERA with a strong 27.7% strikeout rate against a 9.9% walk rate.

Brigham missed the entire 2021 campaign and much of this past season while dealing with a nerve injury in his right biceps, so durability is something of a concern, but dating back to 2019 he’s pitched about a full season’s worth of innings (63 1/3) with a 4.12 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. This past season’s 94.7 mph average heater was down from its 96.6 mph peak in 2019, but the results were still sound. As with recent waiver claim Stephen Ridings, Brigham is likely viewed as an optionable depth piece who can perhaps vie for one of the final spots in what should be a new-look Mets bullpen this winter. He’s projected for a modest $800K salary in 2023.

As for the Marlins’ return, they’ll acquire the 22-year-old Sanchez, who posted a combined 3.79 ERA in 35 2/3 innings across two Class-A levels in 2022. Sanchez fanned 27.1% of his opponents, a strong mark, but also walked an untenable 13.5% of hitters he faced. The Marlins sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he was tagged for nine runs in 7 1/3 innings and walked more hitters (six) than he struck out (five).

Sanchez didn’t rank among the Mets’ top prospects at any Baseball America, FanGraphs or MLB.com, though that’s not really a surprise for a pitcher who’s being swapped out for a pair of recent DFAs. He’ll give the Marlins a young arm with bat-missing capabilities but also some glaring command issues — the type of project arm often included as a lottery ticket in minor swaps of this nature.

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