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Mariners Won’t Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Haniger

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The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.

Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.

He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.

That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.

The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.

He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.

Dodgers Decline Club Option On Jimmy Nelson

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The Dodgers announced that they have declined their 2023 club option on right-hander Jimmy Nelson. They could have retained him at a $1.1MM salary but will instead let him return to the open market. There was no buyout attached to the option.

Nelson spent many years as a starter with the Brewers before being derailed by injuries. He missed the 2018 and 2020 seasons entirely and only threw 22 innings in 2019, putting up a 6.95 ERA in that brief window when he was healthy.

However, he seemed to get things back on track with the Dodgers in 2021. He made 28 appearances that season, throwing 29 innings with a 1.86 ERA. He walked 11.9% of batters faced but struck out 37.9% of them, well above that year’s 24% average for relievers. Unfortunately, that strong bounceback season was cut short when Nelson required Tommy John and flexor repair surgery in August.

Despite the surgery, the Dodgers re-signed him for the 2022 campaign, knowing he was unlikely to contribute that season. He received a league-minimum $700K salary while rehabbing, with the Dodgers able to trigger the $1.1MM option for 2023. The league minimum salary is jumping to $720K next year, meaning that $1.1MM figure is only $380K above. For a team that’s typically among the biggest spenders in the league, that would be a small risk to take on a pitcher who was so dominant when last healthy. However, the club has opted not to take that chance.

There’s no financial risk here for the Dodgers, since there is no buyout on the option. Their only risk is losing Nelson to a rival team now that he has the ability to pursue offers from all 29 other clubs. Though it’s also possible that he and the club could reconnect on another deal.

AJ Pollock To Decline Player Option

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White Sox outfielder AJ Pollock is declining his $13MM player option, per Buster Olney of ESPN, instead taking the $5MM buyout and returning to free agency.

The decision comes as something of a surprise since Pollock is coming of a noticeable down year in 2022. Going into 2019, he and the Dodgers agreed to a four-year, $60MM contract that came with a $10MM player option for 2023 or a $5MM buyout. That $10MM salary could be increased by $1MM for Pollock hitting 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances in 2022, maxing out at $15MM. Since Pollock got to 527 plate appearances on the year, he added $3MM to his potential total, though it ended up being a moot point since he is taking the buyout.

For the first three years of that deal, Pollock was excellent at the plate, hitting 52 total home runs and producing a batting line of .282/.337/.519. That production was 25% above league average, as evidenced by his 125 wRC+. The Dodgers traded him to the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel going into 2022, which precipitated a downturn at the plate. For the Sox this year, Pollock hit just .245/.292/.389 for a wRC+ of 92, or 8% below league average.

He also seems to have lost a step, which isn’t surprising as he’s about to turn 35. He’s racked up double-digit steals in multiple seasons, including 39 in 2015. However, his last time getting into two-figure territory was 2018 and he only swiped three bags here in 2022. Advanced defensive metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average also considered him to be average or below in the field this year.

If there’s one thing Pollock has going for him is that he still mashes lefties. His career batting line with the platoon advantage is .285/.335/.533, leading to a wRC+ of 129, compared to a 107 against righties. That split was even more pronounced in 2022, with Pollock hitting .286/.316/.619 against southpaws, leading a wRC+ 161 compared to a 69 against northpaws. 11 of his 14 home runs came against lefties despite getting only about a quarter of his plate appearances against them.

Whether that’s enough for Pollock to come out ahead in the end remains to be seen. Joc Pederson was coming off a somewhat similar down year in 2021 when he had to settle for a one-year, $6MM deal with the Giants for 2022. Pederson also has strong platoon splits for his career, but could play fairly regularly against right-handers since he hits from the left side. If any team has interest in Pollock for a platoon role, he would have less value since there are fewer lefties for him to play against.

For the White Sox, this removes one option from an outfield that’s in flux for 2022. Andrew Vaughn has been playing on the grass a lot despite being a natural first baseman. He had a nice season at the plate but was one of the worst defensive outfielders in the league by most measures. The club is reportedly leaning towards letting Jose Abreu depart in free agency, opening things up for Vaughn to return to first base. Pollock’s departure removes another corner option from the calculus. That leaves the oft-injured Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez as their primary remaining outfielders, though they also have Adam Engel, Gavin Sheets and Mark Payton on the roster. Even with Pollock around, it seemed that the Sox were a good candidate to look for outfield upgrades and his exodus should only increase the chances of them looking for additions there.

Brewers Exercise Kolten Wong’s Club Option

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The Milwaukee Brewers are picking up their club option on Kolten Wong, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. They will pay him a $10MM salary in 2023 instead of the $2MM buyout.

While most option decisions have a fairly obvious outcome, Wong’s was one of the few that was actually sort of difficult to predict. Long a defensive stalwart, he had perhaps his greatest offensive season in 2022 but took an odd step back in terms of his glovework. Faced with a net $8MM decision, it seems the Brewers have deemed Wong worthy of another go and have triggered his option for 2023.

The 32-year-old was drafted by the Cardinals and spent the first eight seasons of his career there from 2013 to 2020. He was fairly dependable in that regard, providing solid work on the dirt while hitting near a league-average level. Outside of his 2013 debut, he posted a wRC+ between 85 and 109 in each of his seasons in St. Louis, with 100 being the average mark. He never hit for much power, maxing out at 12 home runs as a single-season high as a Cardinal. However, he never struck out more than 16.4% of the time in that stretch and often proved a threat on the basepaths.

On the defensive side of things, Wong generally received positive reviews from the advanced metrics. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a positive number in each season from 2014 to 2020 except for 2017, with the highest being a 17 in 2019. That was easily the highest among second basemen that season, with Enrique Hernández coming in second at 12. Ultimate Zone Rating considered 2018 to be his standout campaign, giving him a 13.4 that year, nudging out DJ LeMahieu for the league lead at the keystone.

Prior to the 2016 season, he and the Cardinals agreed to a five-year extension that came with a $12.5MM option for 2021 with a $1MM buyout. Somewhat surprisingly, the Cards opted for the buyout and sent Wong to free agency, where he landed a two-year, $18MM guarantee from the Brewers with the option for 2023. Since coming to Milwaukee, Wong has had two consecutive above-average seasons at the plate, putting together a cumulative batting line of .262/.337/.439 for a wRC+ of 113. He’s found a little extra power, hitting 14 homers in 2021 and 15 in 2022 after never getting above 12 in previous seasons. He’s also continued to have his speed, swiping 29 bases over the past two years, including 17 in 2022.

As mentioned earlier, Wong’s typically strong defense took a turn for the worse in 2022. In terms of traditional stats, his 17 errors tied a career high from back in 2015. The advanced metrics weren’t keen either, with Wong pegged at a -1 DRS, -4.7 UZR and -9 Outs Above Average. “Defensively, it just wasn’t even my year,” Wong told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last month, before acknowledging that the club’s large arbitration class and impending arrival of prospect Brice Turang might lead to the Brewers choosing the buyout. “I’ve been a free agent one time already and it’s not the most enjoyable thing,” Wong added. “If I got to go through it again, it is what it is. It will be interesting to see where I’d end up landing. Milwaukee was a choice that I kind of had in mind going into free agency as a high pick for me. This next one, I just kind of want to keep an open mind and see how it goes.”

It seems Wong won’t have to worry about free agency for now, as the Brewers have decided he’s worth the $8MM investment. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel spoke to Wong, who said the he is “stoked” about the decision, before going on to detail that his legs weren’t 100% healthy in 2022, which contributed to his defensive shortcomings (Twitter links).

Yankees To Make Qualifying Offer To Anthony Rizzo

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The Yankees are expected to make a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Qualifying offers are due Thursday of this week. Rizzo will then have 10 days to gauge interest around the league before determining whether to accept or decline his QO. If he accepts, he’ll be considered signed as a free agent (and thus unable to be traded until June 15, 2023, without his consent). If he rejects the QO, he’ll become a free agent but will be tied to draft pick compensation — meaning a new team would need to surrender a pick(s) in next summer’s draft in order to sign him.

For Rizzo, declining his $16MM player option was a straightforward decision, even if he hopes to remain in the Bronx. Declining the option put the onus on the team to make this offer — which represents a $3.65MM raise over what he’d have earned by exercising the player option. And, had the team unexpectedly opted not to put forth a QO, he’d surely have been able to earn more than the year and $16MM value of his player option as a free agent with no draft strings attached.

Similarly, it’s an obvious call for the Yankees to make. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 and tied a career-high 32 home runs in just 548 plate appearances with the Yankees this past season. That .224 average was obviously a fair bit south of the .243 leaguewide average, but Rizzo’s walk rate and power output were vastly better than that of your average big league hitter.

Rizzo also turned in a better-than-average 18.4% strikeout rate, and with some limitations on infield shifts looming in 2023, it stands to reason that Rizzo could see a few more grounders break through the right side of the infield to help him find a few more singles and boost that average next year. Based on Rizzo’s 2022 output, the Yankees would surely be content to have him accept and return at a slightly larger rate of pay.

Rizzo found a two-year, $32MM deal with an opt-out/player option in free agency this past offseason, and that was on the heels of a .248/.344/.440 campaign that was noticeably less productive than his 2022 season. Granted, he’ll now have a QO with which to contend and is a year older, but he could still parlay the offer into a new two-year deal with the Yanks that could perhaps clock in below the QO rate but at or slightly above the $16MM he’d have otherwise earned.

Teams could very well be reluctant to part with a draft pick (or picks) in order to sign a first baseman to a contract beginning with his age-33 season, but the previously mentioned 10-day window will give Rizzo and his reps the chance to determine how receptive other teams might be to such an arrangement. At the very least, Rizzo’s decision to decline his $16MM player option has netted him the opportunity to lock in an additional $3.65MM in 2023.

Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura

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As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.

The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.

The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.

Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.

There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.

The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.

Anthony Rizzo Declines Player Option With Yankees

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NOVEMBER 7: Rizzo has officially exercised his opt-out clause, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

NOVEMBER 4: Aaron Judge will understandably dominate most Yankee-centric headlines for the foreseeable future, but he’s not the only pinstriped slugger who’ll have the opportunity to field interest from other clubs this offseason. First baseman Anthony Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM contract with the Yankees contained even salaries of $16MM per year and allows the longtime Cubs star to decline a 2023 player option and return to the open market if he chooses. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden writes that Rizzo is planning to do just that, which isn’t a huge surprise given the season that Rizzo put together in the Bronx.

Rizzo, 33, did post a low batting average but piled up walks and extra-base hits en route to a .224/.338/.480 batting line through 548 trips to the plate in 2022. He slugged 32 home runs, knocked 21 doubles and even chipped in a triple and six stolen bases. His 18.4% strikeout rate was his highest since 2014 but was still well shy of the 22.4% league average. Similarly, his 10.6% walk rate was a good bit higher than the league-average mark of 8.2%. All in all, wRC+ (which adjusts for his home park and league-wide offensive environment) pegged Rizzo’s bat at 32% better than an average hitter.

On the defensive side of the coin, Rizzo’s once-sterling defensive grades have taken a tumble, but not to the point where he ought to be considered a liability. He checked in with negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-2) but did so over the course of more than 1000 innings. Rizzo has battled back injuries the past couple seasons, which could help to explain some of the downturn with the glove. He received an epidural injection this summer and later began experiencing migraines, which cost him a couple weeks of action. Rizzo went 3-for-6 with a homer in his return contest following that IL stint.

Rizzo played in 11 fewer games in 2022 than in 2021, but at least with regard to his offensive performance, his 2022 season was better across the board. He had slightly more strikeouts but showed substantially more power (.256 ISO to .192), hitting more home runs in fewer plate appearances (32 vs. 22) and walking more often (10.6% vs. 9%). Overall, it was his best offensive showing since 2019. Though he will be another year older in 2023, the incoming ban on defensive shifts should benefit him. As a left-handed hitter without much speed, some of his grounders that were easy outs in 2022 could turn into singles going forward.

Given that this year’s production rather handily outpaced his 2021 output, there’s little reason to think Rizzo shouldn’t be able to expect at least the same type of two-year, $32MM pact he signed with the Yankees last offseason. The one scenario that might impact his earning power would be if he were to opt out and be saddled with a qualifying offer, but the $19.65MM value of this year’s QO represents a noticeable bump from the $16MM he’s scheduled to earn in 2023. Rizzo would be wise to decline the player option if only to push the Yankees to make that QO and put himself in a position to secure that raise. If they don’t make the QO, then another two- or even three-year deal could well be present for the slugger in free agency.

Bowden suggests that Rizzo would like to return to the Bronx on a longer deal. If that interest is reciprocated by the club, perhaps they could work something out even if the QO is involved. Such a scenario played out a few years ago when the White Sox gave a QO to Jose Abreu, who accepted it, but then they agreed to a three-year deal about a week later.

The Yankees have a good deal of uncertainty with their infield picture for next year, with not many players locked in. Josh Donaldson had a rough year at the plate and is about to turn 37, making it possible the Yanks look to move on from the last year of his contract. Gleyber Torres was decent at second but should see his contract rise to the $10MM range via arbitration. He’s still worth an investment like that but the club could also look to trade him and devote those resources to other parts of the roster. DJ LeMahieu should factor in here somewhere but he finished 2022 on the IL and will turn 35 next year. He’s probably best suited to a utility role as opposed to an everyday gig. Shortstop is a big mystery with Isiah Kiner-Falefa having a generally solid season with the glove but a few errors in the postseason cost him some playing time. There are youngsters available to take his job in Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera and Anthony Volpe but none of those guys have proven themselves locks to be MLB-capable just yet.

If Rizzo does indeed trigger his opt-out, it would create one more issue for the Yankees to deal with on the dirt. If they are able to give him a contract that entices him to stay, it would be one step towards stabilizing things. If the parties can’t find common ground, the alternatives available to the Yankees on the free agent market include Abreu, Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, among others.

Minasian: Angels Will Not Trade Shohei Ohtani This Offseason

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Angels general manager Perry Minasian informed reporters this evening that two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will open the 2023 season in Anaheim (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). The Angels are not giving any consideration to trading Ohtani, according to Minasian.

“Ohtani is not getting moved,” the GM told reporters. “He’s going to be here. He’ll be with us to start the season. I know there’s been rumors and all types of things, but he will be here. He’ll be part of the club. I said this before and I’ll say it again: We love the player. I think our goal is for him to be here for a long time.”

It’s a wholly unsurprising sentiment, as the Angels never seemed all that likely to move the 2021 AL MVP. Despite what would’ve surely been massive interest at this past summer’s trade deadline, Anaheim took Ohtani off the market almost immediately. Reports later indicated owner Arte Moreno directed his front office not to deal the two-time All-Star.

A few weeks later, Moreno announced he’s been exploring the possibility of selling the franchise. That process was reportedly already underway by the time the trade deadline rolled around, and the possibility of marketing an Ohtani-fronted roster to potential buyers figured to have played a role in the owner’s thinking. There hasn’t been much recent word on the sale process, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated last week that Moreno plans to go through with the sale.

The sale exploration could take most or all of the offseason, leaving the franchise in a state of uncertainty. The Halos are coming off a 73-89 season that marked their seventh straight below-average campaign. Anaheim dismissed Joe Maddon midseason and replaced him with Phil Nevin, but the managerial swap failed to reinvigorate a team that collapsed after a strong first month and a half. Minasian and his front office staff will set to work on trying to build around a core led by Ohtani and Mike Trout. The Halos have a promising rotation front four in Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, but they’re lacking in bullpen depth and don’t have much in the way of lineup certainty beyond Trout, Ohtani and, to a lesser extent, right fielder Taylor Ward.

How much money Moreno’s willing to allocate to build out a roster with which he’s ostensibly parting in the coming months is a question that looms over the offseason. The Angels opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the $188MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, the Halos have roughly $145.5MM in commitments on next year’s books. That includes salaries at or in excess of $30MM for each of Anthony Rendon, Trout and Ohtani.

The latter commitment was agreed upon last month, when the Angels and Ohtani agreed to a $30MM deal for his final season of club control. That set the record for the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in major league history, quickly foreclosing any possibility the parties would go to a hearing over his 2023 salary. There’s no indication they’ve recently discussed a longer-term deal, and Ohtani’s presently on track to be the top free agent in next winter’s class.

Minasian and company would surely love to keep the unique talent in Orange County for the long haul, but it remains to be seen if the 28-year-old is eager to engage in extension talks with the franchise’s present uncertainty. Fans of other teams will surely hold out hope the Angels change course in their resistance to dealing Ohtani, perhaps pointing to the other franchise currently up for sale as a hoped-for example. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo went on record in June to say the team would not trade Juan Soto, but they reconsidered and ultimately moved him at the deadline after Soto declined what proved to be their final long-term extension offer. That said, it’s generally rare to hear a baseball operations leader formally close the book on any potential roster maneuver, and it’d now register as great a surprise as ever if Ohtani is wearing anything other than an Angel uniform on Opening Day.

White Sox Exercise Tim Anderson’s Club Option, Decline Option On Josh Harrison

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TODAY: The White Sox officially announced that Anderson’s option has been exercised.  In addition, the Sox announced that they declined their $5.5MM club option on Josh Harrison, instead paying the veteran a $1.5MM buyout.

NOVEMBER 6: The White Sox intend to pick up shortstop Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option for the 2023 season, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.

As recently discussed in Tim Dierkes’ Offseason Outlook, the decision to pick up Anderson’s club option was relatively easy, as the two-time All-Star has been a strong shortstop when healthy. However, Anderson has had a tough time staying on the field. Since 2019, the 29-year-old has dealt with a right ankle injury, two right groin injuries, two left hamstring injuries, and a sagittal band tear on his left middle finger. Furthermore, since 2019 Anderson has not appeared in over 123 games, being limited to 123 games in both 2019 and 2021, while only playing 79 games in 2022.

But when he’s on the field, he’s worth every penny. Over the past four seasons, Anderson has put up a collective .318/.347/.474 slash line, earning two All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger. Additionally, during the past four seasons, Anderson has a wRC+ of 123 — the seventh-highest mark among shortstops. While Anderson put up a weaker .301/.339/.398 slash line in 2022, he reduced his strikeout rate to an extremely low 15.7% — 7.5% lower than his career mark.

With the top free agent shortstops likely commanding salaries of $30MM or greater, Anderson is a quality bargain for a White Sox team looking to return to playoffs after falling flat in 2022.

Jurickson Profar, Robert Suarez Opt Out Of Contracts; Padres Decline Wil Myers’ Club Option

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Outfielder Jurickson Profar and right-hander Robert Suarez exercised the opt-out clauses in their contracts with the Padres, according to the MLB Players Association (Twitter link).  The two players have now officially become free agents.  Both players will take a $1MM buyout, with Profar opting for free agency over a $7.5MM salary for 2023, and Suarez leaving a $5MM salary for 2023 on the table.  In addition, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that the Padres have declined their $20MM club option on Wil Myers’ services for the 2023 season, and Myers will also get a $1MM buyout.

After a solid performance in his first season in San Diego, Profar inked a three-year, $21MM deal (with a $10MM mutual option for 2024) to return to the Padres during the 2020-21 offseason.  Given Profar’s lack of a consistent track record during his MLB career, the size of the contract was a surprise at the time, and any concerns immediately seemed justified when Profar struggled in 2021.  However, Profar was a 2.5 fWAR player in 2022, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers and a 110 wRC+ while playing some respectable defense as the Padres’ everyday left fielder.

Profar’s three-year deal contained opt-outs after both 2021 and 2022, and Profar naturally didn’t exercise his opt-out after the 2021 season’s disappointment.  In hitting the open market now, Profar’s three-year deal will end up earning him $13.5MM in total salary, signing bonuses, and his buyout.

Once regarded as the top prospect in baseball, Profar is entering his age-30 season and is now looking more like a solid regular, rather than the superstar status initially predicted for him almost a decade ago.  It’ll be interesting to see what his next contract looks like, though his opt-out is a logical move since he’ll surely top the $7.5MM figure.  Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long had an affinity for Profar dating back those top-prospect days (when Preller worked in the Rangers’ front office), and another new deal with San Diego certainly doesn’t seem out the question.

On the flip side, last summer’s Juan Soto trade dramatically overhauled the Padres’ outfield picture, and Preller might choose to continue the remodel with Profar and Myers both hitting the open market.  There wasn’t any doubt Myers’ option would be declined, as the Padres have been trying to trade Myers for the last few years in order to get his contract off the books and ease up their luxury tax burden.  Since a trade partner couldn’t be found for Myers and the Padres had to eat virtually all of Eric Hosmer’s remaining salary in dealing him to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, San Diego ended up surpassing the tax threshold for the second consecutive season.

Myers inked a six-year, $83MM extension with the Friars in January 2017, and though San Diego obviously expected more from its investment, Myers still provided above-average (109 wRC+) over the life of the contract.  He hit .252/.327/.451 with 98 home runs over 2486 PA during the last six seasons, with injuries limiting his playing time in both 2018 and 2022.  In what might be Myers’ final season with the Padres, he missed close to two months recovering from knee inflammation, and played in only 77 games — Myers still had a respectable 104 wRC+ from a .261/.315/.398 slash line.

After spending his first six professional seasons in the Mexican League and in Nippon Professional Baseball, Suarez came to MLB in 2022, signing an $11MM deal that broke down as a $1MM signing bonus, $5MM in 2022, and a $5MM player option for 2023.  Though knee inflammation sent Suarez to the 60-day injured list, his rookie season was still quite a success, with a 2.27 ERA and a 31.9% strikeout rate over his first 47 2/3 innings in the majors.  He carried that success forward with a 3.00 ERA in nine innings during San Diego’s postseason run, though Suarez ended on the sour note of allowing Bryce Harper’s decisive two-run homer as the Padres were eliminated by the Phillies in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Suarez (who turns 32 in March) stands to build on that rookie year with a multi-year contract in his return to free agency.  He is another player the Padres will surely have interest in re-signing, but Suarez will draw plenty of suitors due to the vast number of teams eager to add velocity and strikeouts to their bullpens.

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