Tigers Release Nomar Mazara
JULY 21: Detroit has requested unconditional release waivers on Mazara. He’ll almost certainly clear after 48 hours, at which point he’ll be free to sign elsewhere.
JULY 16: The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve designated outfielder Nomar Mazara for assignment and optioned infielder Willi Castro to Triple-A Toledo. Outfielder Derek Hill and infielder Isaac Paredes are up from Toledo in a pair of corresponding roster moves. Detroit has also appointed lefty Miguel Del Pozo as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader against the Twins.
Still just 26 yeas old, Mazara once ranked as one of baseball’s elite prospects, entering the 2016 season as one of the consensus 25 most promising minor leaguers in the sport. He looked the part when he made his MLB debut that season, too, hitting .266/.320/.419 with 20 home runs in 145 games. It wasn’t a dominant showing, of course, but Mazara was just 21 years old at the time and was making the jump with only 23 Triple-A games under his belt. It was an impressive showing, and it was reasonable to expect that he’d only improve with more reps against big league pitching.
That, however, never really proved true. Mazara spent the next four seasons as the primary right fielder in Texas but more or less just kept repeating his 2016 season. He posted a 93 OPS and 91 wRC+ as a rookie in ’16 and, from 2017-19, posted collective marks of 94 and 92 in those same respective categories. He hit exactly 20 home runs again in 2017 and 2018 before hitting 19 in 2019. Essentially, he’d settled in as a slightly below-average hitter with well below-average defensive grades. The Rangers trade him to the White Sox during the 2019 Winter Meetings.
At that point, Mazara was a highly interesting change-of-scenery candidate. He’d plateaued in Arlington, to be sure, but he was a former Top 25 prospect who was heading into his age-25 season with two years of club control remaining. For the White Sox, it was a sensible enough roll of the dice to see if they could help Mazara take the next step. Instead, he turned in a career-worst .228/.295/.294 batting line with just one home run and a career-high 29.5 percent strikeout rate through 149 plate appearances last summer. Chicago non-tendered him in the offseason.
Mazara took a chance with his second AL Central club, landing with the Tigers on a one-year, $1.75MM deal late in the offseason. Things have gone a bit better in Detroit than in Chicago, but only by a slight margin. Mazara’s strikeouts are down a bit and he’s shown a little more pop. However, his overall .212/.276/.321 batting line through 181 plate appearances so far simply wasn’t enough for the Tigers to keep giving him at-bats over more controllable players who are hoping to emerge as long-term fits in Detroit.
The Tigers will have a week to trade Mazara, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or place him on release waivers. Mazara has more than five years of service time, so even if he does go through outright waivers without a claim, he can reject an outright assignment to the minor leagues and retain the entirety of his remaining salary. It’s unlikely that another club would claim that salary, given his poor showing at the plate. The likeliest outcome is that Mazara becomes a free agent, whether via unconditional release from the team or via rejecting an outright assignment. At that point, he’d be free to sign elsewhere for only the prorated league minimum. That amount would be subtracted from the roughly $753K the Tigers still owe him through season’s end.
Hill, 25, is a former Tigers first-rounder who has had some sparse big league looks but hasn’t yet had a lengthy audition. He’s hitting .320./.373/.508 in 133 Triple-A plate appearances, however, and he’ll now return to Detroit for his second stint of the 2021 campaign.
The 22-year-old Paredes has been ranked among the Tigers’ better prospects since coming to the Tigers alongside Jeimer Candelario in the 2017 trade that sent Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs. He hasn’t hit much in 145 prior MLB plate appearances, but his .261/.357/.412 slash in Triple-A will net him a look over the struggling Castro — another infield prospect who has stumbled to a .214/.278/.341 slash through 280 plate appearances with the big league club so far in 2021.
Padres Willing To Exceed Luxury Tax At Trade Deadline
It might have seemed silly a few years ago to suggest that the Padres would soon have to make any decisions regarding the luxury tax — San Diego only reached $100MM in total payroll once prior to the 2020 season — but the Friars now find themselves roughly $6MM from the $210MM luxury barrier. And while many teams who are so close to the tax line are loath to actually cross the threshold, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Padres ownership is willing to make that concession as the trade deadline approaches.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller recently indicated that he’d like to upgrade his lineup in an effort to coax more consistent production out of the group, and the Padres have struggled to unexpected levels in the rotation. Blake Snell hasn’t pitched up to his previous standards, and the Friars are currently without Dinelson Lamet (forearm inflammation), Ryan Weathers (fractured ankle) and Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery). Last summer’s big-ticket acquisition, Mike Clevinger, underwent Tommy John surgery over the winter, so it’s been known for quite awhile that he wouldn’t be a factor in 2021.
The Padres have consistently been connected to Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, whom Preller knows quite well from his time as a Rangers assistant general manager. Gallo would be an upgrade in right field over Wil Myers, and since he’s controllable through the 2022 season, he’d be a multi-year improvement for the lineup. Gallo is hitting .233/.391/.510 and pacing MLB in total walks and walk percentage, and he’s been one of the game’s hottest hitters since early June: .282/.444/.748 in his past 133 plate appearances.
That said, Gallo himself wouldn’t take the Padres over the tax barrier, and he’s just one of multiple possibilities. Passan suggests more broadly that the Padres are open to adding a “significant” bat (Gallo included). Several others would fit that billing as well. The Marlins and Cubs are expected to trade Starling Marte and Kris Bryant before the trade deadline. The Mariners and the Orioles will be getting offers on Mitch Haniger and Trey Mancini, even if the preference for both clubs would be to hold onto them. If the Reds’ current slide continues, it’s at least feasible that they’d consider deals involving Nick Castellanos, who can opt out of his contract at season’s end.
Regardless of which bat the Padres zero in on, it’ll likely be one of multiple moves the Padres make, given their aggressive front office and the simultaneous need in the rotation.
Dodgers Promote Josiah Gray
The Dodgers announced they’ve promoted top pitching prospect Josiah Gray. He’ll make his major league debut during tonight’s game with the rival Giants.
Selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2018 draft out of Division II Le Moyne College, Gray was traded to Los Angeles a few months later as part of the deal that sent Yasiel Puig to Cincinnati. The following season, he emerged as one of the game’s better pitching prospects. He dominated across three minor league levels in 2019, demonstrating a three-pitch mix and surprisingly advanced command for a player who didn’t convert to pitching full-time until his final season at Le Moyne.
Entering the year, Gray appeared on the top 100 prospect lists of each of Baseball America, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs and Keith Law of the Athletic. Longenhagen was the most bullish of that trio, slotting the 23-year-old as the #29 prospect leaguewide. In his scouting report, Longenhagen raved about Gray’s repertoire and strong fastball command, noting that he projects to be a “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak. BA and Law echoed those sentiments, pointing to Gray’s continued development of his secondary pitches and strong understanding of pitching as reasons for optimism he’ll continue to improve.
Gray has reached Triple-A Oklahoma City for the first time this year, but a shoulder injury sidelined him for two months. He’s only made four appearances because of that, but Gray’s shown no difficulty adapting to the minors’ highest level. He’s allowed just five runs across 15 2/3 innings, striking out 22 while issuing a pair of walks.
Adding rotation help before the July 30 trade deadline figures to be a priority for the Dodgers. Los Angeles trails the Giants by one game in a tightly-contested NL West. Gray pitching well right out of the gate would go a long way towards stabilizing the starting staff, although that’ll likely be a target area for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office regardless of Gray’s early performance.
Even if Gray is in the majors for good, he won’t reach free agency until the conclusion of the 2027 season. He’s not slated for arbitration eligibility until the 2024-25 offseason. Future optional assignments could push back that service time projection.
Spencer Turnbull To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
The Tigers’ rotation received some brutal news, as manager A.J. Hinch announced to reporters that right-hander Spencer Turnbull will require Tommy John surgery (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). The surgery will end Turnbull’s 2021 season and keep him out for the majority of the 2022 season as well.
It’s awful news for the player and a major blow to the Tigers as they begin to look toward turning the corner from their rebuild. The 28-year-old Turnbull established himself as an MLB-caliber hurler back in 2019 and has steadily improved since — culminating in this year’s no-hitter against the Mariners. Prior to landing on the injured list, he’d pitched to a 2.88 ERA with a below-average 21.9 percent strikeout rate, an excellent 6.0 percent walk rate and a huge 57.2 percent ground-ball rate. Dating back to 2019, Turnbull owns a 4.13 ERA in 255 innings.
The Tigers control Turnbull through the 2024 season, so there’s plenty of time for him to return to health and still make an impact with the club — if not in 2022 then certainly in 2023. In the meantime, he’ll head into his first trip through arbitration this winter with a strong but brief platform showing. He won’t have much of a chance in 2022 to build up innings and make a case for a substantial raise, making the injury a particularly poorly timed one from a financial perspective.
It’s also possible that were Turnbull healthy and continuing to thrive, as he had earlier this season, the Tigers would’ve been overwhelmed by a trade offer from a pitching-starved contender. Starting pitching is at a premium every year, but the supply is particularly thin in 2021 — and demand could be more robust than in a typical season. With three-plus years of club control remaining, the price would’ve been sky-high, but today’s injuries effectively removes the possibility altogether.
Giants Interested In Starling Marte
The Giants are a “key” team to watch as the Marlins market center fielder Starling Marte in the coming weeks, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Miami and Marte recently halted extension talks, and Mish now adds that the team balked at guaranteeing the 32-year-old Marte a fourth year on the contract.
Giants center fielders, buoyed by Steven Duggar‘s recent hot streak, are hitting .262/.337/.420 on the season, but Duggar’s .398 average on balls in play and 31.8 percent strikeout rate point to some likely regression on the horizon. Left field has actually been a bigger issue, as the Giants have put together a collective .219/.295/.394 batting line from that position. Those struggles have come in large part due to Alex Dickerson, who could stand to lose some playing time in the event of an acquisition of Marte or another outfielder.
Marte, a free agent at season’s end, is earning $12.5MM this season and is still owed about $5MM of that sum through season’s end ($4.37MM from the point of the deadline). He’s hitting .288/.389/.447 with a career-best 11.8 percent walk rate, seven homers and 19 stolen bases through 245 plate appearances so far in 2021. He missed about five weeks with a fractured rib earlier in the season but has looked healthy and productive since returning at the end of May.
From a payroll vantage point, the Giants needn’t have any concerns acquiring Marte or nearly any other player. San Francisco has about $151MM on the books for 2021 and only about $158MM worth of luxury-tax obligations, leaving them miles from the $210MM barrier. This is also an ownership group that has, in the past, given the green light to payrolls in excess of $200MM, so there’s ample room to take on salary in any deal.
The Giants have a solid farm system, though when we’re talking about one rental player, a deep stock of minor league prospects isn’t required anyhow. Mish suggests that top outfield prospect Heliot Ramos, in particular, is of interest to the Marlins — but that’d be a rather steep price to pay for a Marte rental. The Marlins have some relievers who could pique the Giants’ interest, though; Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt quite familiar with former Dodgers Yimi Garcia and Dylan Floro from his days in the Los Angeles front office, for instance.
Miami is also deep in young starting pitching. For a Giants club that could see nearly all of its rotation reach free agency this winter — Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Johnny Cueto and Aaron Sanchez are all free agents — the Marlins and their impressive crop of young starting pitching seem like a strong trade partner.
Because of the lack of center fielders on the market, the Giants will have plenty of competition for Marte. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, the Phillies and the Astros, and there are several other contenders who could look for help in center field — or just the outfield in general. Marte is certainly a capable defender in center, but he’d fit nicely in a corner for a team looking to more generally upgrade its lineup. The Padres are reportedly looking into some upgrades in right field. The Mets have been linked to center field help throughout the season, and the White Sox have been hit hard with outfield injuries, too. The Giants are as strong a fit as anyone, but the competition will be significant.
Luis Robert To Begin Rehab Assignment
White Sox star center fielder Luis Robert has been cleared to begin a minor league rehab assignment, the team announced. He’ll be assigned to High-A Winston-Salem and begin play on Wednesday. Robert has been out since early May after suffering a Grade 3 strain of his right hip flexor tendon.
Rehabbing position players can spend up to twenty days in the minors, so Robert’s in line to return to the major league club by the second week of August barring any sort of setback. He’ll follow shortly after left fielder Eloy Jiménez, who began a rehab assignment of his own a little more than a week ago.
At the time of his injury, it wasn’t clear whether Robert would be able to return at all this season. Not only is he line to do so, he’s returning to game action after about two and a half months. That’s a surprisingly welcome development after the initial prognosis suggested he’d need three to four months before even beginning baseball activities.
One of the game’s best defensive outfielders, Robert got off to a hot start at the plate before going down. Across 103 plate appearances, he’s hitting .316/.359/.463, a step up from the average offensive production he posted last year.
When Robert and Jiménez went down, outfield looked like a natural potential area for an upgrade. Chicago has coasted to a 7.5 game lead in the AL Central largely without that duo, though, and their impending returns lessen the need for GM Rick Hahn and the front office to explore that market before the July 30 trade deadline.
Setbacks from Robert and/or Jiménez could obviously change that, but the outfield no longer looks like a problem area for the South Siders. Indeed, the front office is expected to prioritize finding bullpen help over the next couple weeks, writes Bruce Levine of 670 the Score. On the position player side, Levine notes that the organization’s bigger concerns are now second base and catcher, where Nick Madrigal and Yasmani Grandal have gone down with respective injuries of their own.
Anibal Sanchez Not Planning To Pitch In 2021
Aníbal Sánchez is no longer planning to pitch this season, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). While Sánchez received some major league offers, according to Heyman, none were at his desired level. Specifically, Sánchez was seeking an incentive-laden deal that would’ve increased the contract’s value based on the number of games he started. Apparently, no teams put forth an offer of that kind to his liking.
Sánchez didn’t sign over the winter due to concerns about COVID-19 and accompanying protocols. He conducted a few showcases for teams during the early part of the regular season, but there’d been no word of his plans since late April. It’s now clear he won’t be signing anywhere this year.
There’s no indication Sánchez is contemplating formal retirement at this point, but it’s not out of the question he’s already made his last MLB appearance. Sánchez will be 38 years old by the start of the 2022 season, and it’s difficult to imagine he’ll receive loftier offers next winter after sitting out the year. The veteran righty was a productive member of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series winner, but he’s coming off a difficult 2020 campaign.
Sánchez has appeared in parts of fifteen major league seasons. He’s made 350 appearances (327 starts) and worked to a 4.05 ERA/4.08 SIERA across 1948 1/3 innings. Sánchez’s best season to date came with the Tigers in 2013, when he led the American League in ERA (2.57) and FIP (2.39) en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting.
Marlins, Starling Marte End Extension Talks; At Least Three Teams Interested In Trades
Reports from earlier today indicated that Starling Marte rejected the Marlins’ offer of a three-year, $30MM contract extension, making it all the more likely that the outfielder would be dealt prior to the July 30 trade deadline. Contract negotiations are now over between the two sides, according to The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (Twitter links), as Marte didn’t want the talks to become a distraction for him as the second half of the season progresses.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) adds the detail that the Marlins’ extension offer was greater than three years and $30MM, but regardless, it now seems that the team will focus on dealing Marte. As one might expect, Marte is already drawing interest from multiple suitors, as Heyman writes that the Astros, Phillies, and Yankees are three of the teams who have been in touch with the Marlins about the former All-Star.
Marte would be an upgrade for just about any team, considering his impressive .288/.387/.443 slash line, seven home runs over 249 plate appearances this season (though Statcast hints at some regression). In addition to his bat, the 32-year-old Marte also has 20 steals from 23 chances and he has displayed some impressive glovework in center field.
This is all music to the ears of outfield-needy teams like Houston, Philadelphia, and New York. The Astros have gotten very solid results both offensively and defensively from Myles Straw and Chas McCormick up the middle, but there is no doubt Marte would represent a big upgrade. For the Phillies and Yankees, center field has been a revolving door thanks to injuries.
In terms of contract, Marte is owed around $5.1MM of his original $12.5MM salary for the 2021 season. This adds another wrinkle to the trade market, as Marte’s three known suitors are all very close to exceeding the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Marte alone could conceivably be added with a bit of maneuvering under the tax line, but that would eliminate pretty much all available payroll space for further trade needs like pitching.
Throughout the winter and into the season, the Yankees and Astros have in particular made several moves indicating that staying under the tax line (and avoiding an escalating repeater penalty) is a priority, though both Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Astros GM James Click recently stated that they would go over the CBT line in the right circumstance. The Phils have never exceeded the luxury tax line, but owner John Middleton has said in the past that he would also be willing to make a tax payment for a difference-making addition.
An argument can certainly be made that Marte is such an addition, though it is also possible that he could be acquired in a trade that wouldn’t require any CBT overage. The Marlins could be more willing to eat most or all of Marte’s salary if they were offered higher-caliber prospects, though then it becomes a question of just how much prospect value any of the three teams would want to surrender for a rental player. Marte could also be included as part of a larger trade package that might see multiple players swap clubs, with perhaps a larger contract sent back Miami’s way as some kind of salary offset.
Angels Promote Brandon Marsh
The Angels announced they’re promoting top outfield prospect Brandon Marsh before today’s game against the Mariners. The 23-year-old will get the start in center field this afternoon, making his major league debut in the process. Infielder Kean Wong was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake to create active roster space. Marsh was already selected to the 40-man roster last winter to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft.
Marsh is a consensus top prospect, checking in among the game’s top 50 farmhands in the estimation of each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs entering the season. Longenhagen was the most bullish, slotting him 15th overall (and ninth on FanGraphs’ updated board). He wrote preseason that Marsh possessed All-Star upside thanks to a combination of solid bat-to-ball skills, above-average raw power, and athleticism that enables him to play a quality center field. Those sentiments were echoed by BA and Law, with each outlet lauding his ceiling on both sides of the ball.
Selected by the Angels in the second round of the 2016 draft out of a Georgia high school, Marsh hit very well over his first few seasons in pro ball. He posted strong numbers from 2017-18 before a breakout 2019 campaign. Despite spending that year in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment, Marsh hit a robust .300/.383/.428 over 412 plate appearances. That vaulted him near the top of prospect lists during the 2019-20 offseason, and he retained that status after spending all of last year at the alternate training site.
Marsh has spent this season with Salt Lake. A month-long injured list stint due to right shoulder inflammation has kept him to 110 plate appearances, over which he’s hit .255/.364/.468 with three homers. That’s less impressive than Marsh’s output at the lower levels — once one adjusts for the hitter-friendly Triple-A setting — but it’s still above-average production for a young player taking his first crack at the level.
The left-handed hitting Marsh has put up better than average numbers at every level of his minor league career, compiling an overall .288/.371/.440 slash line over four professional seasons. He’s demonstrated an advanced feel for the strike zone, walking at a lofty 11.2% clip against a slightly-elevated 24.3% strikeout rate.
Obviously, the center field job will go back to Mike Trout whenever the sport’s best player is ready to return from the injured list. Trout is still yet to embark upon a minor league rehab assignment, though, leaving room for Marsh to handle a regular workload for at least the next couple weeks. With Justin Upton also on the IL and recent free agent signee Adam Eaton in right field, there should be room for Marsh to stick around even after Trout’s return if his performance so merits.
Whether or not Marsh sticks with the big league club for good, his promotion comes late enough in the season to prevent him from accruing a full year of major league service. Marsh won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season at the earliest. The window for Super Two eligibility has also passed, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2025. Future optional assignments could push back that service timeline.
Starling Marte Reportedly Rejects Marlins’ $30MM Extension Offer
The Marlins offered star outfielder Starling Marte a three-year, $30MM contract extension, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Marte rejected the proposal, and Nightengale writes there’s now “a great chance” the impending free agent will be traded in advance of the July 30 deadline.
It’s not especially surprising to hear Marte and his representatives at Rep 1 Baseball passed on a $30MM proposal. Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported last month that Marte was seeking a three or four year deal that paid around $50MM.
Given how well Marte has played this year, that $50MM ask certainly doesn’t seem outlandish. He’s scheduled to hit free agency as the top center fielder available (excluding utilityman Chris Taylor) thanks to an impressive .286/.389/.443 line across 240 plate appearances. Marte has always been a productive player, but he’s hitting at a career-best level this year by virtue of a more patient approach. Marte’s chasing pitches outside the strike zone at the lowest rate of his career, enabling a personal-best 12.1% walk percentage. He’s making a strong rate of hard contact and barreling up a career-high 10.2% of batted balls, per Statcast, a mark that places him in the 66th percentile leaguewide.
Marte turns 33 years old in October, which will cap the length of any new deal. Still, he’s not yet shown any ill effects of aging. In addition to his strong offense, Marte’s still running the bases and defending at a high level. His sprint speed is down a bit relative to his physical peak, but he’s still an 85th percentile runner. And advanced defensive metrics have pegged his glovework as above-average to plus, so there wouldn’t seem to be any real concern about his ability to hold up in center field over the next couple seasons.
The Marlins’ books are almost completely empty for 2022 and beyond, so there’s room for the club to up their offer to Marte if they’d like him to stick around. If they’re unwilling to approach Marte’s asking price on a long-term investment, then a trade indeed seems the likeliest course of action. At 40-51, the Fish sit in last place in the NL East and are almost certain to miss the playoffs in 2021. The Marlins could hang onto Marte through the end of the year and make him a qualifying offer, but contending clubs seem likelier to offer a prospect return over the next couple weeks that’s more valuable than the compensatory draft choice Miami would receive if Marte rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.
A handful of contenders have received little to no production from their center fielders this season. The Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Rays, Reds, Blue Jays, Mariners, Brewers and Red Sox have all received below-average production at the position. A few of those teams (including Tampa Bay, Toronto, Milwaukee and Boston) have viable in-house alternatives that could dissuade them pursuing a center field upgrade. It’s not clear whether the Yankees and Mariners are in position to pursue an impending free agent at the deadline. The Braves’ and Phillies’ presence within the division could present an obstacle to a deal.
While there are potential roadblocks to a Marte trade in any specific case, it stands to reason a few of those center field-needy clubs will be in contact with Miami. Teams seeking corner outfield help could certainly look to Marte as well. He has plenty of early-career experience in left field, or an acquiring team could bump their incumbent center fielder to a corner to accommodate a Marte pickup. The reported lack of progress on extension talks will make Marte one of the top position player trade candidates over the next twelve days.