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Kris Bubic To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Royals left-hander Kris Bubic will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. That will put him out of action for the remainder of 2023 and a portion of the 2024 season as well. The typical recovery timeline for Tommy John surgery is roughly 14-18 months. Bubic was placed on the 15-day injured list last week but the club will inevitably move him to the 60-day once they need a roster spot.

It’s a very unfortunate setback for Bubic, 25, who was showing some positive signs here in 2023. Coming into this year, he had a 4.89 ERA through 309 innings, a somewhat disappointing mark for a guy who was selected 40th overall in 2018 and had been a touted prospect in the years after that. But through his first three starts this year, he had a 3.94 ERA and possibly was even better than that number would indicate. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced and walked just 2.9%, big improvements over his 20% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate coming into the year. He also saw his ground ball rate jump to 52.1%, which was just 44.3% in prior seasons.

This is just three starts and small sample caveats certainly apply, but it’s also worth pointing out that Bubic had added a slider to his repertoire this year. Both Eno Sarris of The Athletic and Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs wrote pieces last week that highlighted Bubic’s improved arsenal in the early parts of the year, suggesting that his better results might have been for real and perhaps could have gotten better going forward. Though his 2023 ERA was about a full run better than his career mark, he had an even shinier 2.71 FIP and 3.45 SIERA. Again, it’s just three starts, but it was backed up by actual changes to his arsenal and might not have been just noise. Bubic and the Royals will now have to wait over a year to test those changes over a larger sample.

It’s obviously a blow for Bubic personally but also for the Royals, who have made some decisions that put their fortunes in the hands of young starters. They have used many of their early draft picks in recent years on pitchers, with not a lot of success. Between 2015 and 2018, Bubic, Brady Singer, Josh Staumont, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Jonathan Bowlan were all selected in the first 65 picks of their respective drafts. Up until last year, none of that group had found much major league success. Singer finally bucked the trend in 2022 by posting a 3.23 ERA in 153 1/3 innings and it seemed there was a chance that Bubic was following him. But now the latter is out for the remainder of the year and the former is struggling to a 8.14 ERA through his first four starts.

This loss will only compound the various struggles that the Royals are facing right now, as they have limped out to a 4-15 start, with their .211 winning percentage below all MLB teams except for the Athletics. Without Bubic, the Royals will proceed with four regular starters in Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brad Keller and Singer. Tonight, Taylor Clarke is serving as an opener in front of Ryan Yarbrough, who figures to get the bulk of the innings. Lynch is on the IL with a shoulder strain but could factor in whenever he’s healthy.

Bubic qualified for arbitration this past offseason as a Super Two player, meaning this is his first of four arb seasons. He and the club agreed to a $2.2MM salary for this year. Even though he’s going to miss the vast majority of the season, he’ll be in line for a similar salary next year, since the arb system is designed so that salaries almost never go down. He can then go through the arbitration system twice more after that before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

Reds Have Discussed Extension With Nick Lodolo

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The Reds locked down a hopeful core member for at least the next six years earlier this week when signing righty Hunter Greene to a $53MM extension, and they’re hopeful of doing so with another promising young arm. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Cincinnati has been discussing an extension with left-hander Nick Lodolo as well.

There are plenty of similarities between Lodolo and Greene. Both are former top-10 overall draft picks — Greene No. 2 in 2017, Lodolo No. 7 in 2019 — and both entered the 2023 season with exactly one year of Major League service after debuting for the Reds early in the 2022 season. Both pitchers were widely regarded as top-100 prospects in the sport before making their respective Major League debuts last year.

That’s not to suggest that Lodolo should or will sign on for identical terms, but the framework is likely one that could interest the Reds. Both Greene ($7.23MM) and Lodolo ($5.4MM) signed life-changing signing bonuses out of the draft, arguably creating less urgency for either pitcher to sign a long-term contract. That didn’t stop Greene from doing so, but every player’s personal motivations, appetite for risk, etc. are different, of course.

It’s not clear when or whether talks between the Reds and Lodolo’s reps at Excel Sports Management will gain steam, but the team’s interest in hammering out a long-term contract shouldn’t come as a great surprise. Lodolo made the transition from the upper minors to MLB rather seamlessly in 2022, pitching 103 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball in his debut campaign. His 29.7% strikeout rate trailed only his own teammate, Greene, and breakout Braves righty Spencer Strider among rookie starters last season. Loosening the parameters and looking at all MLB pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in ’22, Lodolo ranked 14th out of 124 in terms of strikeout rate.

Lodolo paired that innate ability to miss bats with a solid 8.8% walk rate and an above-average 46% grounder rate. Were it not for a lower back strain that wiped out all of May and June for the left-hander, Lodolo might well have factored into NL Rookie of the Year voting. The aforementioned Strider and his teammate Michael Harris were always the runaway favorites, but given the absolute tear on which Lodolo finished out the season, a larger number of innings might’ve had him in the running.

While Lodolo was hit hard in two of his first three starts off the injured list last season, he found his stride over his final 13 trips to the hill. In that time, he pitched 77 innings of 2.92 ERA ball with a 30% strikeout rate — including a 2.48 ERA and 35% strikeout rate in the season’s final month. At the very least, with better health, he might’ve wound up in third on the ballot rather than his eventual sixth-place finish.

In 2023, Lodolo was sharp through three turns, with a scoreless, seven-inning, 12-strikeout gem in Philadelphia standing out as the headliner. The Rays trounced him for eight runs earlier this week, ballooning his season ERA to 4.98 overall. However, Lodolo’s strikeout and ground-ball rates are near mirror images of his 2022 marks, and his walk rate is actually down two percentage points in 2023. The 25-year-old southpaw’s young career has produced an overall 3.89 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 46.2% ground-ball rate in 125 innings, giving the Reds’ front office plenty of reason to believe he can join Greene and righty Graham Ashcraft as cornerstones of the current rebuild.

As it stands, the Reds control Lodolo through the end of the 2027 season, and he’d be eligible for arbitration following the 2025 season. He still has all three minor league option years remaining, so it’s technically possible that those trajectories could be impacted if he struggles for an extended period and is optioned to Triple-A. Aside from a couple of hiccups (e.g. that clunker against the Rays), however, there’s not much in Lodolo’s first 23 big league starts that suggests he needs any additional seasoning in the upper minors.

Dodgers Select Jake Reed, Place Michael Grove On Injured List

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The Dodgers announced Friday that they’ve placed right-hander Michael Grove on the 15-day injured list due to a groin strain and selected the contract of fellow righty Jake Reed from Triple-A Oklahoma City in his place. Los Angeles transferred righty Ryan Pepiot from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Reed. Pepiot has been out all season thus far due to an oblique strain and will now be sidelined until the end of May, at the earliest.

Grove, 26, opened the season as the Dodgers’ fifth starter — a role that had initially been won by Pepiot before he suffered that oblique strain. While Grove is sporting a grisly 8.44 ERA, that number is particularly skewed by one disastrous outing in which the D-backs ambushed him for nine runs in three innings of work. He hasn’t exactly dominated in his other three outings but has kept the club generally competitive, with a 4.26 ERA in those three outings. The new injury will derail his ability to continue whittling away at that unsightly ERA for at least the next couple weeks.

This is the second big league season for Grove, who also pitched 29 1/3 frames of 4.60 ERA ball for the Dodgers late in the 2022 campaign. While he’s never been regarded as a premier prospect, he’s consistently ranked among the organization’s 20 to 25 best prospects since being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft. His 2022 campaign in the minors was particularly solid, as Grove logged a combined 3.79 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 76 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

The 30-year-old Reed has spent time with the Dodgers in each of the past two seasons, though he’s pitched just ten innings for them at the big league level. He’s allowed just three runs on 11 hits and three walks with seven punchouts during his time as a Dodger, but Reed has a 5.74 ERA in 26 1/3 innings as a big leaguer overall.

A fifth-round pick of the Twins back in 2014, Reed was once a promising bullpen prospect in Minnesota’s system but has yet to consistently produce in limited big league opportunities. Over the past three seasons, he’s bounced between the Dodgers, Rays, Mets, Orioles and Red Sox via waivers, with multiple stops in L.A. along that circuitous journey.

With Grove joining Pepiot and Tony Gonsolin on the injured list, the Dodgers are down to four healthy starters: Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard. That said, the team has a scheduled off-day next Monday, which will allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation. As such, they won’t need a fifth starter until April 30, at the earliest.

The Dodgers could opt for a bullpen game that day, as they don’t have any ready-made options on the 40-man roster outside of long reliever Andre Jackson. Alternatively, if the team wants to open some space on the 40-man roster, the Dodgers have top prospects Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone in Triple-A, as well as non-roster veterans Robbie Erlin, Dylan Covey and Matt Andriese. Grove will be eligible to return in early May, and the Dodgers are also expecting to get Gonsolin back sometime in the middle of next month.

NPB To MLB: 7 Players To Watch

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A new wave of NPB players have chosen to pursue their big-league dreams in recent years. Just this past offseason, Kodai Senga signed a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets, Masataka Yoshida signed a five-year, $90MM deal with the Red Sox, and Shintaro Fujinami signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Athletics. One offseason prior, Seiya Suzuki signed a five-year, $85MM deal.

Making the move from NPB to MLB is a complicated process. A player needs to have nine seasons of experience on the first team (i.e. the NPB “major league” club, as opposed to their minor league team) before they can become an overseas free agent. At the earliest, a player drafted out of high school becomes a free agent at age 27 and a player drafted out of college becomes one at age 31. This is a long period of time and can take even longer if a player misses time due to injury. Players who want to make the move sooner instead opt to use the NPB-MLB posting system. The posting system grants all 30 MLB teams the right to negotiate with a player after posting, but the team is subject to paying a posting fee based on the amount of guaranteed money in the contract.

The two main difficulties with the posting system are that 1.) players need their team’s permission to be posted, and 2.) players need to wait several years before being classified as “professionals” rather than “amateurs” under Major League Baseball’s international free agency standards. In order to be considered a “professional” and thus be exempt from MLB’s hard-capped bonus pool system for international amateurs, a foreign-born player must be at least 25 years of age and have at least six years of experience in a professional league (NPB, in this case). Shohei Ohtani knew this and chose to pursue a jump to MLB at age 23 anyway, limiting himself to a signing bonus a little north of $2.3MM because his age made him an “amateur.” Had he waited two more years, Ohtani could have potentially commanded 100 times that sum as a “professional” under MLB’s classifications. It was a sizable bet on himself, but it looks like one that will pay off.

Some teams are traditionally open-minded about letting players pursue their MLB dreams, most notably the Nippon Ham Fighters, while other teams such as the Yomiuri Giants and the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks have traditionally not given permission to their players when they ask to be posted for MLB clubs.

This series will keep track of NPB players who may be making their way to the MLB in the near future.

Let’s get started with players who may be available in the 2023 offseason.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a 24-year-old right-hander for the reigning Pacific League and Nippon Series champions Orix Buffaloes. He began his career as a starter but moved to the bullpen in 2018 and became one of the best relievers in NPB. He was moved back to the rotation in 2019 and established himself as an elite starter by leading the Pacific League with a 1.95 ERA.

Yamamoto has since become the undisputed ace of NPB. He’s won the Sawamura Award — the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young Award — and the Pacific League MVP Award in back-to-back seasons. He posted an insane 1.39 ERA, 206 strikeouts, 28% strikeout rate, and 5.4 walk rate in 2021, and followed that up with a 1.68 ERA, 205 strikeouts, a 27.4 strikeout rate, and a 5.6 walk rate in 2022. Yamamoto also won the Gold Glove award in each of those seasons. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote more on Yamamoto back in Februrary. Some scouts believe that Yamamoto is ahead of Senga.

The Pacific League MVP relies on a deep six-pitch repertoire and elite control to pile up strikeouts. Yamamoto primarily leans on his mid-90s fastball, splitter, and curveball, but he occasionally mixes in a cutter, two-seamer, and slider. The right-hander is known for his unique training style, with a focus on flexibility and mobility as well as using javelin-like and hammer-like tools. He also has a personal chef/nutritionist to manage his diet. While he has not had a major injury so far in his career, the only concerns with the Buffaloes ace are his slight frame (5’10″, 175 pounds) and adjusting to the grueling MLB schedule. Although he has not thrown on a four-day rest schedule, he has showcased his durability by throwing over 190 innings in each of the past two seasons.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote in his recent 2023 FA class power rankings, Yamamoto’s contract could exceed Masahiro Tanaka’s contract with the Yankees in 2014. Tim wrote: “Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.”

Yamamoto is off to another fantastic start this season. In the two games he’s started so far, he has a 0.75 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. 

2. Yuki Matsui

Yuki Matsui is a 27-year-old left-handed reliever for the Tohoku Rakuten Eagles. He has a career 2.46 ERA, 31.9% strikeout rate, 201 saves, and 68 holds in 447 appearances. Matsui has a four-pitch arsenal featuring a four-seam fastball that goes up to 96mph but averages between 92-94, a dominant splitter and slider, and a lesser-used curveball. 

Matsui is on track to become a true international free agent this offseason, so he won’t need to utilize the posting system to gauge interest from MLB clubs. Japanese media is already speculating that he may sign with an MLB team. Matsui has said he is focused on the upcoming season but is open to the move. Sports Hochi reported that Matsui and the Eagles have discussed future MLB plans during contract negotiations over the years.  

Matsui first hit the national spotlight as a high school player at the 2012 Summer Koshien Tournament, the Japanese equivalent of March Madness, where he set the tournament record for most strikeouts in a single game with 22, and the longest consecutive strikeouts with 10. He finished that tournament with the most strikeouts in a single tournament by a lefty with 68.

Matsui came into the league as a starter but was moved to the bullpen in 2015 and since then has consistently been one of the best closers in the NPB. Out of the seven seasons he was the primary closer, Matsui recorded over 30 saves in five of them. His only “down” year came in 2018 — he still posted a 3.34 that season — but he bounced back with a career-high 68 appearances and 38 saves in 2019.  He was moved to a starting role in 2020, before ultimately moving back to the bullpen at the end of the season where he has remained until now. Matsui struggled adjusting to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, so that may be a concern moving forward. 

Despite his difficulties at the WBC, Matsui had a terrific start to the season. He’s thrown five shutout innings, recorded four saves and fanned eight of his 18 opponents (44.4%). Dating back to 2021, Matsui has a 1.26 ERA in 99 2/3 innings of relief work.

3. Shota Imanaga

Shota Imanaga is a 29-year-old left-handed starting pitcher for the Yokohama DeNa Baystars. Fans might recognize Imanaga’s name after his start for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic final against Team USA. The left-hander has a 3.24 ERA, 24.3 strikeout rate, 7.3 walk rate and 854 2/3 innings in 136 career starts. He had a career year last season, posting a 2.26 ERA, 23.6 strikeout rate and 5.2 walk rate in 143 2/3 innings. He also recorded his first no-hitter in June. 

The Baystars ace primarily throws four pitches, including a 91-94 mph fastball, a changeup that is close to a split-change, a cutter, and a curveball, while occasionally mixing in a slider. While he does not have an overpowering fastball, he has elite command and uses his changeup to get strikeouts. He had shoulder surgery in 2020 but has made a full recovery, and shoulder trouble hasn’t been a recurring issue for him.

Imanaga has expressed his desire to pitch in the big leagues since 2021 but won’t be an overseas free agent until the 2025 season. Sponichi reported in December that Imanaga planned to sign with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement. The Baystars have never posted a player before, so it is unclear if they are open to posting Imanaga. However, Imanaga is set to become a domestic free agent within NPB this offseason, so if the Baystars do not allow Imanaga to go to the big leagues, he could potentially move to another NPB team.

Imanaga is yet to pitch for the first team this season as the Baystars manage his workload after pitching for Team Japan. He’s completed his minor league starts with no complications and is set to make his regular-season debut with the first team soon. 

4. Kona Takahashi

Kona Takahashi is a 26-year-old right-handed starter for the Saitama Seibu Lions who had his career-best season last year. In his 26 starts, Takahashi recorded a 2.20 ERA and struck out 18.2% of hitters faced in 175 2/3 innings. He was wilder earlier in his career, walking more than 12% of his opponents, but has improved his command more recently. Takahashi has a career 3.55 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, and 9% walk rate in 133 starts. He primarily relies on four pitches: a fastball that sits at around 93-95mph, a splitter, a slider, and a cutter, while occasionally throwing a curveball. 

Takahashi called MLB “the world’s greatest peak” and said he was inspired by former teammate and now Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. “Yusei-san changed my baseball career. I want to give back to him by performing at the highest level and even surpassing him,” Takahashi said. He attended Game 4 of the 2022 World Series in Philadelphia and said “The atmosphere was amazing and I thought that I’d love to pitch here [in MLB].”

Despite Takahashi’s wishes, the Lions may not post him this offseason. Lions GM Hisanobu Watanabe said that there are no plans as of right now to post Takahashi. “We’ve just listened to his [Takahashi’s] wishes at this point. We’ve discussed things of that nature with him before, but it’s not a story of when we are going to post him,” Watanabe said. The right-hander wants to be posted in the near future since the earliest he can earn his overseas free-agent rights is 2026. The good news for Takahashi is that his manager is former New York Met Kazuo Matsui, who is open-minded about the possible move. “If he reaches another level as an ace, he might get closer to that goal,” Matsui said. 

Takahashi is doing his best to reach that next level, with a 0.39 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 23 innings pitched in his three starts. He has not given up a run in 18 consecutive innings.

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa 

Naoyuki Uwasawa is a 29-year-old right-handed starter for the Nippon Ham Fighters who has a 3.29 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and 8% walk rate in 148 career starts. The right-hander throws a variety of pitches, including a low-90s fastball, cutter, slider, splitter, knuckle curve, changeup, and a two-seam fastball (usage in that order). His four-seam fastball was hit hard last season, with opponents batting .272 against it. 

Uwasawa announced his desire to pitch in the majors at his contract negotiations last December and requested to be posted in the 2023 offseason. He said that he was inspired when he participated in the 2018 MLB Japan All-Star Series. “I’ve always wondered what it’s like to play in a league with players coming from around the globe, and it’s the type of experience I can’t miss if I have the chance to. I only have a limited amount of time to take on the challenge, so if I have the opportunity I would take it,” Uwasawa said. Uwasawa began working with Driveline last offseason to help prepare his transition to the big leagues, looking to optimize his pitching mechanics and improve the quality of his slider. 

Uwasawa has had a poor start to the season, with a 6.46 ERA and 16.9% walk rate through 15 1/3 innings in his three starts.

Younger stars to keep an eye on

The following players are already some of the biggest stars in the NPB, but are likely unavailable until the 2025-26 offseason due to their age.

1. Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami, nicknamed Mura-Kamisama (Mura-God), is a 23-year-old corner infielder for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. He burst onto the scene in 2019, with 36 home runs and 96 RBIs, winning the Central League Rookie of the Year Award in the process. He was the back-to-back Central League MVP in 2021 and 2022. Murakami has a career slash line of .281/.405/.583, hitting 160 homers and driving in 430 runs, along with a .988 OPS and 166 wRC+. Murakami’s 2022 season was nothing short of historic. He batted .318/.458/.710 with 56 home runs and 134 RBIs, along with a jaw-dropping 1.168 OPS, 221 wRC+ and 10.3 WAR. He became the youngest-ever Triple Crown winner in NPB and set the single season record for home runs hit by a Japanese player. 

Murakami’s leap in 2022 can likely be attributed to overcoming hard-thrown fastballs. Hitting high velocities was a weakness early in his career, with batting averages of .088 in 2019, .167 in 2020, and .229 in 2021 against fastballs thrown over 150 km/h (93.75 mph). In 2022, Murakami hit .327 against those pitches. Consistent growth in this area will be essential to Murakami’s success in MLB, where the average velocity is higher than the NPB. Murakami is not necessarily known for his defense at third base. In 2022, he recorded 15 errors, the second-highest in all of NPB and the most among third basemen. If he cannot improve his defense as he did with his contact against higher velocity, he most likely projects to be a first baseman in MLB.

Murakami signed a three-year deal this past offseason that came with a guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-26 offseason. By 2025, Murakami will be 25 years old and shed his “amateur” status under MLB rules, thus exempting him from the bonus pool system. There is a clause that will allow him to get posted sooner if the age-25 rule is lowered.  

Murakami has had a slow start to the season, hitting just .189/.328/.373 with two homers and a 33.3% strikeout rate in a small sample of 66 plate appearances. The good news is that he is walking in 18.2% of plate appearances, and hitting .375 with runners in scoring position.

2. Roki Sasaki

Roki Sasaki is a 21-year-old right-handed starter for the Chiba Lotte Marines, known as “The Monster of Reiwa”, who is entering his fourth season in NPB. Sasaki has been highly scouted since his high school days, throwing 100mph fastballs with ease. He was drafted in 2019 by the Marines, who took a patient approach to his development. The 6’3″ right-hander clearly had an outstanding arsenal, but teams were concerned about his thin frame, in-game stamina, and the repeatability of his mechanics. He did not pitch in 2020 and only started in 11 games and pitched 63 1/3 innings in 2021.

The Marines’ patience paid off, with Sasaki quickly becoming one of the most dominant starters in NPB. In his first full year in the Marines’ rotation, the phenom recorded a 2.20 ERA and 1.70 FIP, striking out 35.3% of hitters while walking just 4.7% in 129 1/3 innings. Sasaki became the 16th pitcher in the history of NPB to pitch a perfect game last April, and followed up the performance by throwing eight more perfect innings in his next outing, before getting pulled with 102 pitches. In the 17 perfect innings, Sasaki struck out 33 of the 51 batters faced. Sasaki has a three-pitch mix, a fastball that averages between 99-101mph and tops out at 104mph, a devastating splitter, and a slider. 

As of right now, there is no clear timetable for Sasaki’s jump to Major League Baseball. Sasaki will not hit the professional experience threshold and does not turn 25 years old until 2026, so unless he takes the Ohtani route of posting before age 25, the earliest that Sasaki will make his MLB debut is in 2027. Sasaki said in March that “Before thinking about the timing of moving to the majors, playing in Japan comes first, and I think that things will become more clear after that.”

Sasaki has picked up right where he left off last season and has yet to allow a run in his two starts. Last week, he outdueled Yamamoto and shut down the Buffaloes, only allowing one hit and striking out 11 in seven innings.

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move:

Kazuma Okamoto, Corner Infielder, Yomiuri Giants; Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons

Twins Extend Pablo Lopez

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April 21: The Twins formally announced this morning that they’ve signed Lopez to a four-year extension, covering the 2024-27 seasons. FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the contract breaks down in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, an $8MM salary in 2024 and annual salaries of $21.5MM from 2025-27.

April 17: The Twins are keeping their big offseason trade acquisition for the long haul. Minnesota is reportedly in agreement with right-hander Pablo Lopez on a four-year, $73.5MM contract extension. The deal is pending a physical. Lopez is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Lopez, 27, came to the Twins alongside top shortstop prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio in the January trade that sent infielder Luis Arraez to the Marlins. He’s already locked into a $5.45MM salary for the ongoing 2023 season, which is his second of three scheduled arbitration seasons. The new contract with the Twins will buy out Lopez’s final arbitration season and what would’ve been his first three free-agent seasons; once completed, the Twins will have Lopez signed through his age-31 season.

Assuming Lopez would’ve landed somewhere in the $10MM range for his final arbitration season, the contract effectively buys out his first three free-agent years for a combined $63MM, give or take a bit. The deal values Lopez at somewhere around $20-21MM per free-agent season. That annual range takes him past the AAVs that mid-rotation arms like Taijuan Walker ($18MM) and Jameson Taillon ($17MM) agreed to this past offseason.

From a structural standpoint, there are some similarities to the recent extension between the Giants and their own top starter, Logan Webb. That $90MM deal, a record for the three-plus service class, also bought out three free-agent seasons. However, Webb’s deal bought out two arbitration seasons, and his first arbitration salary ($4.6MM) topped that of Lopez ($2.425MM), which helps to explain the gap between the final guarantees on the two deals.

Lopez could certainly have gone the year-to-year route, reaching free agency in advance of his age-29 season and perhaps setting himself up for a five- or even six-year deal in the process. Of course, that’d have been a gamble to some extent, given the ever-present risk of injury that’s inherent to all pitchers. That’s particularly notable for Lopez, who has thrice been on the injured list due to right shoulder troubles to this point in his career.

Through his first four starts with the Twins, Lopez has looked like a star. After pitching to a 3.75 ERA in a career-high 32 starts and 180 innings in 2022, he’s surged out to a 1.73 ERA through four starts and 26 innings with the Twins. Lopez’s 95.4 mph average fastball is a career-best mark, and his 33.7% strikeout rate trounces the 23.2% mark he posted in parts of five seasons in Miami. He’s managed to up his velocity and strikeout rate without sacrificing his pinpoint command; this year’s 6.1% walk rate tops the 6.7% mark he posted in his Marlins career.

Much of Lopez’s success to date can be attributed to a newly unveiled sweeper that has thus far befuddled opposing batters. Opponents are batting just .111 against the pitch with a massive 50% whiff rate, per Statcast. Between that and the gains on his fastball, Lopez is unsurprisingly boasting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. It’s only a sample of four starts, of course, but the results have generally exceeded even the most optimistic expectations for the righty. Time will tell whether he can sustain it all over a larger sample — a .236 BABIP and 89.1% strand rate both seem ripe for regression — but the Twins can only be thrilled with their end of that offseason trade.

With Lopez now locked in through at least the 2027 season, he joins Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton among the focal points of the Twins’ core. The Twins control catcher Christian Vazquez, second baseman Jorge Polanco and righty Chris Paddack through the 2025 season, but Correa, Buxton and now Lopez are the only players on guaranteed deals beyond that ’25 campaign. Of course, the Twins will have plenty of core players in arbitration at that point: closer Jhoan Duran, starter Joe Ryan and corner infielder Jose Miranda among them. Further cost certainty through extensions among that group or touted youngsters like Edouard Julien remain possible.

Looking to strictly the rotation, both Lopez and Ryan are now under club control through the 2027 season — which is slated to be Ryan’s final year of arbitration eligibility. Each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda will be up for free agency at the end of the current season, so it’s understandable that the Twins had extra incentive to lock up their top starter and lock in some additional continuity.

Minnesota also has towering 6’9″ righty Bailey Ober under club control through at least that same 2027 season, and while he opened the season in Triple-A St. Paul, his performance in the big leagues to date suggests he can be a part of that long-term starting staff (3.82 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate in 148 1/3 innings). The aforementioned Paddack is signed through 2025 under the three-year, $12MM deal he signed while rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Other in-house rotation options beyond the current campaign who’ve already had some big league seasoning include prospects Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder, though Winder’s frequent shoulder issues could eventually push him more toward to the bullpen.

Generally speaking, the Twins have shown increased willingness to spend in recent seasons, pushing their payroll up into the $150-160MM range in both 2022 and 2023. Assuming that’ll continue to be the norm in years to come, there’ll be plenty of room to supplement the core down the line. Lopez’s deal will likely land the Twins between $75-80MM in guaranteed money on the 2024 books, followed by something in the vicinity of $90-95MM in 2025 and around $70MM in both 2026-27 (depending on the extension’s exact year-to-year breakdown). The Twins aren’t and never have been at risk of paying the luxury tax, but they’ve also come quite a ways from their days as a perennial bottom-of-the-scale payroll club.

The trade bringing Lopez to Minnesota originally gave the Twins only two years of club control over Lopez, while Miami picked up three years of control over Arraez. The extension with Lopez more than balances out that disparity in club control, and it comes less than two years after the Twins begrudgingly made the decision to trade rotation stalwart Jose Berrios to Toronto after being unable to come to terms on an extension. Hindsight is always 20/20, but the seven-year extension Berrios inked with the Jays hasn’t panned out at all, and the Twins ultimately found their way to a prime-aged starter who was willing to commit to an extension on more favorable terms.

This surely isn’t exactly how they drew it up dating back to that pivotal trade deadline, but the Twins have added some long-term stability both in the lineup and in the rotation and done so without completely clogging the long-term payroll.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported the sides were nearing agreement on a four-year, $73.5MM agreement. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported the sides had agreed to terms.

The Opener: Season Debuts, O’Hoppe, Iglesias, MadBum

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As an eventful week draws to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the weekend:

1. Lucchesi, Musgrove set to make 2023 debuts:

A pair of starters figure to take the ball this weekend for the first time this season. Mets left-hander Joey Lucchesi is lined up to start tonight in San Francisco in place of the recently-injured Carlos Carrasco. Lucchesi will be taking the mound in the majors for the first time since 2021, when he posted a 4.46 ERA (90 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP in 38 1/3 innings across eleven appearances. Lucchesi underwent Tommy John surgery partway through the 2021 season and missed the entire 2022 season. He’s looked good in the minors since returning from surgery, posting a 2.22 ERA in 28 1/3 innings of work with a 23.9% strikeout rate.

Meanwhile, Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove is set to make his season debut tomorrow evening against the Diamondbacks. Musgrove fractured his toe during spring training, and his return was slightly delayed after he landed awkwardly on his shoulder while making a play in the field during a minor league rehab start. He received a cortisone shot and has since made a five-inning rehab start in High-A. With a 3.06 ERA (125 ERA+) in 362 1/3 innings of work since joining the Padres ahead of the 2021 season, Musgrove is perhaps the club’s best pitcher and will be a welcome addition to a pitching staff that’s struggled a bit to start the season.

2. O’Hoppe to be re-evaluated:

Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe is set to be re-evaluated today after leaving yesterday’s game with a shoulder injury, as noted by The Athletic’s Sam Blum. At this point, it’s unclear if O’Hoppe will miss any time, but if that’s the case, the club will have to add another catcher to the 40-man roster to play alongside Matt Thaiss. The only other catcher currently on the 40-man is Max Stassi, who has yet to play this season due to a hip injury. The Angels have an open 40-man spot, and Blum points out that Chad Wallach is on the team’s taxi squad. Any missed time for O’Hoppe would be a blow to the Angels; he’s slashed .283/.339/.547 in 16 games this season, good for a 143 wRC+.

3. Where will Iglesias, MadBum land?

Infielder Jose Iglesias is back on the free agent market after opting out of his minor league deal with the Marlins, leaving him as the best available option for clubs in need of infield depth at this point in the season. One such club is the Dodgers, who started Luke Williams at shortstop last night and gave Mookie Betts three innings late in the game, thanks to injuries to both Miguel Rojas and utility player Chris Taylor. The Red Sox are another team that could potentially look to add depth to their infield, with second baseman Christian Arroyo battling a hamstring issue and Adalberto Mondesi on the 60-day IL.

Iglesias isn’t the only player who’s expected to be looking for work going forward, as the Diamondbacks designated veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner for assignment yesterday. Bumgarner has struggled to a 5.23 ERA in 363 1/3 innings in three-plus seasons with the club, which registers 20% below average by measure of ERA+. His 2023 season has been particularly alarming. He’s allowed 19 earned runs on 25 hits (four homers) and a staggering 15 walks (plus a hit batter) in just 16 2/3 innings. Bumgarner’s formerly elite command is nowhere to be seen, and he’s averaging a diminished 89.6 mph on his fastball. He won’t be claimed on waivers with $34MM+ remaining on his contract through the 2024 season. Once he clears, he’ll be available to sign with another club for the prorated league minimum.

Diamondbacks Designate Madison Bumgarner For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks have designated left-hander Madison Bumgarner for assignment, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D-backs have formally announced the move. Left-hander Anthony Misiewicz has been recalled from Triple-A Reno to take Bumgarner’s spot on the 40-man roster.

The Bumgarner DFA comes on the heels of three-plus sub-par seasons for Bumgarner in Arizona, where he signed a five-year, $85MM contract prior to the 2020 season. The 33-year-old left-hander has been generally durable but ineffective for the Snakes, pitching to a lowly 5.23 ERA in 363 1/3 innings and 69 starts under that contract.

Things have taken a particularly pronounced downswing in 2023, however, as Bumgarner has been torched for 20 runs (19 earned) on 25 hits and 15 walks with just 10 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings. The D-backs have lost three of Bumgarner’s four starts this season, including a seven-run three-inning clunker against the Cardinals yesterday, wherein Bumgarner got into a verbal altercation with St. Louis catcher Willson Contreras after apparently taking objection to Contreras’ reaction to a swing and reaction on a pitch he fouled straight back. The team’s lone victory of the season with Bumgarner on the mound came when he was pulled after 4 2/3 innings, three runs and six walks.

Bumgarner’s current 89.6 mph fastball average is down more than three miles per hour from its 92.9 peak. His 11.1% strikeout rate and 16.7% walk rate are both career-worsts by wide margins, and he’s seen his ability to induce swinging strikes (just  6.3%) and chases off the plate (21.1%) evaporate in this season’s four starts.

In seasons past, the Diamondbacks could perhaps sell themselves on occasional glimmers of hope and at least accept that if nothing else, Bumgarner was a durable innings eater who could somewhat narrowly keep his ERA south of 5.00. The Diamondbacks didn’t enter 2021 or 2022 as hopeful contenders anyhow, after all, and Bumgarner gave them a bridge to some of their starting pitching prospects while those promising young arms continued to develop in the upper minors.

That’s no longer the case in 2023, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco outlined earlier this week in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, arguing within that the D-backs needed to move on as soon as possible. The D-backs entered the ’23 campaign with an emerging, exciting young core headlined by outfielder Corbin Carroll, and they have one of MLB’s top farm systems to further bolster that group in the near future. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are strong rotation arms, and with a talented collection of youth complementing them (e.g. Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and, sooner than later, Brandon Pfaadt), the starting pitching outlook is bright.

Arizona is out to an 11-8 start, and while the season is still quite young, expectations have shifted. Bumgarner simply hasn’t been a competitive pitcher for them in any capacity this season, and his body of work in three seasons prior gives little reason to hope for a turnaround. With the division looking more vulnerable than it has in years and the D-backs potentially on the rise, it’s just not feasible to continue on with what increasingly looks like a sunk cost.

Exactly how the rotation shakes out from this point forward remains to be seen. Piecoro tweets that 25-year-old left-hander Tommy Henry is expected to start in Bumgarner’s place next time around, though one would imagine that Pfaadt — one of the sport’s top pitching prospects — will get a look in the near future after opening the season in Triple-A. Veteran Zach Davies is also a factor, though he’s currently out with a strained oblique and figures to be sidelined into next month.

What’s clear is that Bumgarner’s time with the D-backs is virtually over. Given the left-hander’s woeful performance not only in 2023 but throughout his D-backs tenure as a whole, there’s no chance another team will roll the dice on the remaining $34.3MM on his contract. Bumgarner is being paid $23MM in 2023 and is still owed a $14MM salary for the 2024 campaign.

The Diamondbacks could technically place him on outright waivers, but he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining his salary, and no team would claim the contract anyhow. As such, he’ll likely be placed on release waivers in the coming days and, upon clearing, become a free agent who’s eligible to sign with any other club. Any team that signs Bumgarner would only need to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the D-backs owe the lefty, but Arizona is effectively committing to eating close to $34MM in dead money by parting ways with Bumgarner at this juncture of his contract.

Latest Details On A’s Stadium Process

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A potentially monumental change to the MLB landscape was announced late last night. A’s team president Dave Kaval confirmed the club was firmly turning its attention to Las Vegas in its stadium search after months of parallel discussions with both Vegas and Oakland.

The A’s entered into an agreement to purchase 49 acres in Las Vegas for what they hope to be the location of their next stadium. That led Oakland mayor Sheng Thao to announce the end of negotiations between the city and the franchise regarding a potential new Howard Terminal ballpark in Oakland.

Given yesterday’s events, it now seems very likely the A’s will relocate to Vegas within the next few years. Nothing has yet been finalized, however; the franchise’s land purchase is not the same as a binding stadium agreement, which involves many more hurdles at the government level. A’s leadership and Nevada politicians have both expressed general optimism about a stadium agreement getting done, though there’s still plenty of work to be done in sorting out the details.

Howard Stutz, Tabitha Mueller and Sean Golonka of the Nevada Independent shed more light on the proposal the A’s are likely to put in front of the state legislature within the next couple months. The A’s would invest around $1 billion for the construction of the new ballpark. The organization is seeking the creation of what Kaval calls an “incentives package” for half a billion dollars in public funding. According to the Nevada Independent, the general idea would be to use tax dollars created by the stadium project itself — primarily sales taxes of consumers at the new stadium and its surrounding area (Kaval suggested the end goal would be to create a mixed use development reminiscent of Atlanta’s Battery) — to pay off $500MM worth of bonds issued by the county.

According to the Independent’s report, Nevada legislators have been generally briefed on the proposal. They haven’t yet received concrete details nor made any firm commitments on the project. Various reports have suggested Nevada governor Joe Lombardo is generally supportive of the project, though a spokeswoman tells the Independent that “(t)here is no set timeline (for an official stadium agreement). The financial elements of the concept are still being discussed.” Stutz, Mueller and Golonka note that the legislature remains in session through June 5. If no agreement is in place by then, the legislature could call a special session to continue negotiations into the summer.

The A’s lease at RingCentral Coliseum in Oakland runs through the end of next season. Kaval has pegged 2027 as a target date for a new facility in Las Vegas. He told reporters last night the organization was hopeful of having a binding stadium contract in place by the end of this year and breaking ground on the stadium in 2024. (Under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, the A’s need to have a stadium agreement signed by next January 15 or they’d forfeit their status as revenue sharing recipients.)

Obviously, there’d be a two-year gap between the end of the A’s lease at the Coliseum and the target date for the new facility in Vegas. Kaval addressed that this afternoon, telling the media the organization was open to both extending their lease at the Coliseum by two years or finding a temporary home in Las Vegas (as relayed by Shayna Rubin of the Bay Area News Group). The A’s Triple-A club, the Aviators, play in Vegas and could potentially house the MLB team while ballpark construction is ongoing.

Kaval made clear the club has no plans to displace the Triple-A team over the long term (link via Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal). “The Aviators are going to stay as part of this,” Kaval said. “Kind of like how there’s the Golden Knights and Silver Knights, we’re going to have the A’s and Aviators both in the community. We’re going to have our major league team and our Triple-A team co-located.” He pointed out the Astros (Houston to Sugar Land) and Twins (Minneapolis to St. Paul) both have their top affiliates in close proximity to the major league club.

While there’s obvious optimism on the part of A’s leadership about their next steps in Las Vegas, there’s predictably disappointment and anger among some in Oakland. The Oakland mayor was critical of the A’s negotiating tactics in announcing the end of discussions regarding the Howard Terminal project last night. Thao doubled down this morning, accusing the franchise of pulling the rug out from under talks at a time when city officials perceived they were making progress.

“Based on the A’s desire to achieve certainty in 2023, we laid out a detailed and specific plan to bring the project forward to a City Council vote this summer,” she told reporters (link via Rachel Swan and Sarah Ravani of the San Francisco Chronicle). “But it has become clear that we are not able to reach acceptable terms and that the A’s are not good partners in the effort.” She added the city had recently hired a mediator to shepherd daily negotiations throughout this week, saying the sides “were the closest we had ever been to making a deal” until Kaval informed the city about the land deal in Vegas yesterday evening.

Swan and Ravani note that Thao has left open the possibility of reopening negotiations. That’d presumably require a major setback in the A’s efforts in Las Vegas at this point. For now, the organization’s focus is clearly on getting a stadium agreement hammered out in the Nevada legislature, which would then allow the A’s to petition MLB for relocation. Commissioner Rob Manfred has already expressed his support for the A’s efforts in Las Vegas, announcing last year the league would waive the A’s relocation fee if they went there. Formal relocation requires approval from 75% of the league’s ownership groups.

Alex Wood To Miss Several Weeks With Hamstring Strain

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Giants starter Alex Wood left his start on Tuesday in the third inning after straining his hamstring while fielding a bunt. San Francisco placed him on the 15-day injured list the next morning, and it seems he’s in for an absence well beyond that minimum.

San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler told reporters this evening Wood will be out “several weeks, at least” (relayed by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). There’s still not a ton of specificity in that timeline, but it’s clear he won’t be back in early May.

It’s another unfortunate issue for Wood, a typically effective pitcher who has battled various injury concerns throughout his career. The left-hander only topped 150 innings in four of his first ten MLB seasons. He’s had at least one IL stint in every year since 2015. Back and shoulder issues have typically been his most nagging concerns, but he’s now in for a notable absence due to a lower half injury.

While Wood missed a bit of time in both 2021-22, he managed to make 26 starts in each of those seasons. He posted a 3.83 ERA through 138 2/3 innings during his first year in San Francisco. The Giants re-signed him on a two-year, $25MM contract headed into 2022. Wood surrendered a 5.10 ERA over 130 2/3 frames last year.

That middling run prevention came with far better peripherals. He posted better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball marks. A .315 batting average on balls in play and very low 63.9% left-on-base rate were the main culprits for Wood allowing more than five earned runs per nine. Estimators like FIP (3.76) and SIERA (3.45) felt he deserved quite a bit better.

Wood had been off to an alright start in 2023. He’d allowed four runs (two earned) through his first 10 innings. The 32-year-old had walked six batters but fanned 11. He’ll have to put things on pause for a while before trying to reestablish himself in advance of next offseason’s free agency. Offseason signee Ross Stripling now looks likely to return to the rotation alongside Logan Webb, Sean Manaea, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani. Stripling had been set to work primarily as a multi-inning reliever after struggling with home runs through the season’s first couple weeks.

Padres Reinstate Fernando Tatis Jr.

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Fernando Tatis Jr. is back in the majors. The Padres officially reinstated him from the restricted list following the completion of his performance-enhancing drug suspension on Thursday evening. San Diego optioned infielder/outfeilder Brandon Dixon to Triple-A El Paso to open room on the big league roster. The Friars transferred reliever Robert Suarez from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list.

Tatis steps into the leadoff spot tonight against Arizona right-hander Ryne Nelson. He’ll play right field in his first MLB contest since October 3, 2021. Tatis is expected to play right field on a near everyday basis in 2023. He lost his former shortstop position when San Diego inked Xander Bogaerts to a $280MM free agent contract over the winter. With Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado rounding out the infield, Tatis gets kicked onto the grass.

While there’ll certainly be some intrigue about how he acclimates to a position at which he has just 151 1/3 innings of MLB experience, the primary question will be how quickly he finds his stride offensively. Tatis was one of the game’s best hitters over his first three seasons, combining to hit .282/.364/.611 between 2019-21. By measure of wRC+, that was the ninth-best offensive output among batters with at least 500 plate appearances.

Whether the 24-year-old can recapture that kind of production remains to be seen. Since his last MLB game, he’s undergone three surgeries — two on the left wrist he fractured in a motorcycle accident, one on his left shoulder that had ailed him back to 2021. He also tested positive for the performance-enhancing drug Clostebol and was handed an 80-game suspension at the start of last August. That carried into this season, with Tatis sitting out the Friars’ first 20 games. San Diego has opened with a middling 9-11 start, allowing ten more runs than they’ve scored.

Tatis was permitted to play in Spring Training. He got into 16 exhibition games, hitting .273/.340/.432. Shortly after the regular season opened, Tatis went on a rehab stint with El Paso. He was the best hitter in the Pacific Coast League for a week. Tatis blasted seven home runs, walked six times and struck out on just three occasions in eight games. He hit .515/.590/1.212 in 39 trips to the plate for the Chihuahuas before reporting to the Padres a few days ago.

Players on the restricted list don’t count against the 40-man roster. To clear a spot, San Diego transferred Suarez to the 60-day IL. That backdates to his Opening Day placement on the injured list but still officially rules him out until the final week in May.

Suarez opened the season on the IL with inflammation in his throwing elbow. He was shut down from throwing at the start of this month after feeling continued discomfort and is without a clear recovery timetable. It’s an inauspicious start to the five-year, $46MM contract he inked at the start of last offseason. The hard-throwing Suarez provided the Padres 47 2/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball during his initial MLB campaign last year, emerging as one of their highest-leverage relievers by the playoffs.

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