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Reds Decline Mike Minor’s Mutual Option

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The Reds announced they have declined their end of a  mutual option on left-hander Mike Minor, making him a free agent. He’ll receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $13MM salary for next year.

Prior to the 2021 season, Minor signed with the Royals on a two-year contract with a club option for 2023. In the event Minor was traded, that club option would become a mutual option, which indeed came to pass when the Royals flipped him to the Reds for Amir Garrett going into 2022.

In the first year of that deal, Minor made 28 starts for the Royals and tossed 158 2/3 innings. His 5.05 ERA certainly didn’t elicit much excitement, though there were reasons to think he could have deserved better. His 22.3% strikeout rate was just a shade under league average among starting pitchers that year, though his 6.1% walk rate was almost two ticks below the 7.8% par. His 66.4% strand rate was also much worse than the 72.5% median, leading advanced metrics to come in better than his ERA, such as a 4.38 xERA, 4.29 FIP, 4.32 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA.

Going into 2022, the Reds did some roster clearing, mostly for financial reasons. Wade Miley was put on waivers and claimed by the Cubs, while Sonny Gray was traded to the Twins. They held onto Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, but it was still expected that those guys would likely be moved later, which did indeed come to pass at the trade deadline. Taking all that into consideration, they needed a veteran to maintain a steady presence in the rotation and acquired Minor to be that guy.

There was some logic to this, as Minor had made at least 28 starts in the previous three full seasons as well as 11 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Unfortunately, that durability didn’t carry over into 2022, with Minor making multiple trips to the IL due to shoulder issues. He did end up taking the ball 19 times in 2022, though he was not able to be very effective when he did. He posted a 6.06 ERA on the year, with a diminished strikeout rate of 16.7%. Based on that disappointing season, it’s no surprise that the Reds have turned down their end of the bargain. Minor turns 35 years old in December and has also mulled retirement.

Despite losing Minor and the aforementioned traded pitchers, the rotation is one of the more interesting parts of the roster for the rebuilding Reds. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all made their debuts in 2022 and each showed varying levels of promise. That could give the club a strong nucleus of starters to build around as they look to move towards their next competitive window.

Rangers Considering Qualifying Offer For Martin Perez

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The Rangers and left-hander Martin Perez have voiced hope of working out an extension since this summer, but with the team’s five-day exclusive negotiation window nearing its end, a multi-year deal isn’t close, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Texas is “likely” to make a qualifying offer to Perez if a multi-year deal can’t be agreed upon, Morosi adds.

A $19.65MM qualifying offer for Perez would’ve seemed unthinkable not long ago, but the 31-year-old lefty parlayed his one-year, $4MM Rangers reunion into a legitimate case for a multi-year deal in free agency (and, thus, for a possible QO). Perez ranked tenth among all big league pitchers with 196 1/3 innings pitched in 2022, and his career-best 2.89 ERA ranked 14th among qualified starting pitchers (and 23rd among the 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched).

Perez’s breakout comes on the heels of a five-year stretch that saw him pitch to a 5.05 ERA in 611 2/3 big league innings for three different teams (Rangers, Twins, Red Sox). Despite persistently lackluster results, he continued to receive Major League deals in free agency, inking one-year pacts with the Twins, Red Sox and Rangers along the way. That, coupled with Perez’s longtime standing as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects (albeit more than a decade ago), suggested that teams see a bit more to him than his rudimentary numbers might otherwise indicate.

In 2022, Perez at last made good on those repeated shows of faith, but the reasons for his breakout are more subtle than other pitching breakouts we’ve seen in recent years. Perez didn’t add a lethal new breaking pitch, nor did he enjoy a pronounced spike in his velocity.

Rather, Perez made alterations to the same five-pitch mix on which he’s relied for some time now. This season’s 36.9% usage rate on his sinker was his highest since his last run with the Rangers in 2018. His 27.7% usage rate on his changeup was a career-high — but only by a matter of a couple percentage points over his 2020-21 levels. Perez has largely scrapped his four-seamer (6.5%) and curveball (3.5%), using them as show-me offerings that complement a heavier three-pitch reliance on his sinker, changeup and a cutter he implemented with the Twins in 2019. Neither the four-seamer nor the curveball, however, were prominently used pitches for Perez in recent seasons anyhow.

The biggest contributing factors to Perez’s success in 2022 might be ones that teams have a hard time buying into. His 0.50 HR/9 mark was miles better than his career 1.07 mark (and, particularly better than the 1.39 rate he’d yielded from 2018-21). Perez’s 77% strand rate is a hefty eight percentage points higher than his career norm. Add in the fact that he’ll turn 32 next year and again look to his modest track record prior to 2022, and there are enough red flags that Perez would seem likely to be ce capped at a three-year deal in free agency.

Granted, a three-year deal — even one at a lower rate than the qualifying offer — could still guarantee Perez quite a bit more than he’d earn by accepting a one-year commitment. That’ll be the question that he and his representatives at Octagon have to weigh; is it worth forgoing a guaranteed $19.65MM to lock that might be more in the $12-13MM range over a three-year term? Would a team even offer such a deal, knowing it’d also have to punt a draft pick (or multiple picks) in order to sign Perez?

Conversely, accepting the one-year term has its own risk-reward benefits. Repeating his 2022 excellence (or even approximating it) and returning to the market with a stellar two-year platform and without the burden of a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career — would set Perez up for a much larger deal than he could expect to command this winter. On the other hand, an injury or reversion to his 2018-21 form could potentially cost him $10-20MM over what he might get on a three-year deal.

Just where the two parties stand isn’t yet clear, but Perez has made no secret of his hope to remain in Texas long-term. “I want to be here and stay here, 100 percent,” the left-hander said back in July before adding: No — make it 300 percent.” Whether that exuberance manifests in a deal — and the extent to which the Rangers could be posturing in an effort to push Perez closer to a deal — will become clearer Thursday when qualifying offer decisions are formally due.

Locking in Perez, if he were to accept a qualifying offer, at $19.65MM would push the Rangers’ projected payroll to about $133MM, not including pre-arbitration players (hat tip to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That would already be within $10MM of 2022’s Opening Day mark of $142MM, but the Rangers have taken payroll as high as $173MM in the past (2017) — and that was before they opened a new ballpark. General manager Chris Young has already plainly stated that the team’s payroll will increase in 2023, so there’s little reason to view a potential $19.65MM salary for Perez as any kind of burden that would hinder them from making further additions.

Jorge Soler Will Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Marlins outfielder Jorge Soler will not trigger his opt out, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, keeping him with the Fish for 2023.

On the heels of his World Series MVP with Atlanta, Soler signed a three-year, $36MM deal to take his talents to South Beach, with Soler also having the opportunity to opt out after each of the first two years of the deal. Unfortunately, he slumped to a .207/.295/.400 line in 2022, production that was just below league average, finishing with a wRC+ of 98. He also missed most of the second half of the season due to back spasms, which meant he only got into 72 games on the year.

Based on that disappointing campaign, it never seemed like there was any chance of him leaving money on the table and choosing to return to the open market. He’ll earn $15MM in 2023 and will then have the choice between opting out or sticking with the Marlins on a $9MM salary for 2024.

For the Marlins, they were hoping that Soler would be a key piece of a more potent offense in 2022 to complement their strong pitching staff. They signed both Soler and Avisaíl García, in addition to trading for Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings. Neither of those moves really worked out and the club was fairly tepid with the bats yet again, producing a team-wide wRC+ of 88, placing them 25th in the league in that department.

For a second year in a row, the club will be going into the winter trying to find more offensive production. They will reportedly continue to consider using their pitching surplus in trades, though they will also have to hope for more from their four acquisitions from a year ago.

Soler has proven to be quite mercurial in recent years, oscillating between looking like one of the most dominant hitters on the planet and looking fairly lost at the plate. He had a tremendous breakout with the Royals in 2019, which included hitting 48 home runs. That was the infamous “juiced ball” season but wRC+, which controls for the surrounding offensive environment, still considered Soler to be 36% above the league-average hitter that year.

After a slight dip in production for the shortened 2020 season, Soler looked really rough in the first half of 2021. He slashed .192/.288/.370 before getting flipped to Atlanta at the deadline and turning things completely around. He hit .269/.358/.524 after the deal and then was even better in the postseason, leading to the aforementioned World Series MVP honors. Of course, as mentioned, Soler couldn’t sustain that into 2022.

The Marlins will now be hoping that the Soler seesaw has another bounce in it for 2023, though that would be something of a double-edged sword. If he gets things back on track in the coming season, he will have another opt-out chance with only one year and $9MM left on his deal. One year from now, Soler will be 31, about to turn 32. Even with his inconsistent track record, he would likely be able to top a $9MM guarantee if he goes into free agency on a high note again. But another poor season would leave the Marlins in the same position they’re in right now, crossing their fingers and hoping for him to turn things around.

Yankees To Make Qualifying Offer To Anthony Rizzo

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The Yankees are expected to make a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Qualifying offers are due Thursday of this week. Rizzo will then have 10 days to gauge interest around the league before determining whether to accept or decline his QO. If he accepts, he’ll be considered signed as a free agent (and thus unable to be traded until June 15, 2023, without his consent). If he rejects the QO, he’ll become a free agent but will be tied to draft pick compensation — meaning a new team would need to surrender a pick(s) in next summer’s draft in order to sign him.

For Rizzo, declining his $16MM player option was a straightforward decision, even if he hopes to remain in the Bronx. Declining the option put the onus on the team to make this offer — which represents a $3.65MM raise over what he’d have earned by exercising the player option. And, had the team unexpectedly opted not to put forth a QO, he’d surely have been able to earn more than the year and $16MM value of his player option as a free agent with no draft strings attached.

Similarly, it’s an obvious call for the Yankees to make. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 and tied a career-high 32 home runs in just 548 plate appearances with the Yankees this past season. That .224 average was obviously a fair bit south of the .243 leaguewide average, but Rizzo’s walk rate and power output were vastly better than that of your average big league hitter.

Rizzo also turned in a better-than-average 18.4% strikeout rate, and with some limitations on infield shifts looming in 2023, it stands to reason that Rizzo could see a few more grounders break through the right side of the infield to help him find a few more singles and boost that average next year. Based on Rizzo’s 2022 output, the Yankees would surely be content to have him accept and return at a slightly larger rate of pay.

Rizzo found a two-year, $32MM deal with an opt-out/player option in free agency this past offseason, and that was on the heels of a .248/.344/.440 campaign that was noticeably less productive than his 2022 season. Granted, he’ll now have a QO with which to contend and is a year older, but he could still parlay the offer into a new two-year deal with the Yanks that could perhaps clock in below the QO rate but at or slightly above the $16MM he’d have otherwise earned.

Teams could very well be reluctant to part with a draft pick (or picks) in order to sign a first baseman to a contract beginning with his age-33 season, but the previously mentioned 10-day window will give Rizzo and his reps the chance to determine how receptive other teams might be to such an arrangement. At the very least, Rizzo’s decision to decline his $16MM player option has netted him the opportunity to lock in an additional $3.65MM in 2023.

Rockies Decline Option On Scott Oberg

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The Rockies have declined their $8MM club option on right-hander Scott Oberg, as announced by the MLBPA this morning in their update to the growing number of players who’ve formally reached free agency (Twitter link).

The decision to decline Oberg’s option wasn’t really a decision at all, and while he’s technically a free agent, it’s not at all clear whether Oberg will pursue a return to the mound now or at any point in the future. Chronic blood clots completely derailed the promising right-hander’s career, and Oberg has since taken on a role in the Rockies’ scouting department to remain active with the team. The 32-year-old stated back in May that he was “not in a rush” to pursue a return to pitching, as in making any such attempt he’d be “running into the risk of having to go through all this again.”

The “all this” referred to by Oberg is a harrowing series of surgeries, beginning with a Sept. 2020 operation to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome but culminating with multiple surgeries to remove blood clots from his arm. At one point, he spent a night in the ICU after his hand went numb and the team’s trainers were unable to feel a pulse in his right wrist. Oberg underwent surgery the following day.

The unfortunate health troubles arose just when it appeared as though Oberg was on the cusp of cementing himself as a high-end, late-inning reliever. Oberg’s 2018-19 seasons saw him pitch to a sterling 2.35 ERA with 22 holds, five saves, a 25.5% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate as a key member of the Colorado bullpen. That netted him a three-year, $13MM extension, but the unexpected development of the career-altering — if not career-ending — blood clot issue kept Oberg from taking the mound over the life of that contract.

The Rockies have not yet announced whether Oberg will return as a scout, as a coach or in some other role moving forward, but general manager Bill Schmidt spoke glowingly of him back in May at the time Oberg acknowledged uncertainty about whether he’d again pursue pitching.

“What we’ve talked about is trying to figure out what he wants to do in the game,” Schmidt told Jack Etkin of Rockies Magazine at the time. “We’ll figure out a role for him. He’s a very bright guy. And I think the world of Scottie and want him involved.”

KBO’s Kia Tigers Re-Sign Socrates Brito

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The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they’ve re-signed outfielder Socrates Brito to a one-year deal, Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports. Brito will be guaranteed $800K and can earn an additional $300K via incentives. That’s a raise for his second season with the Tigers, after he earned a guaranteed $600K with $300K of incentives in 2022. Brito is represented by the MAS+ Agency.

Brito, 30, enjoyed a strong debut campaign in the KBO this past season when he batted .311/.354/.494 with 17 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and a dozen stolen bases. He walked at a tepid 6.1% clip but also struck out in only 14.6% of his plate appearances.

A longtime Diamondbacks prospect, Brito has appeared in parts of four Major League seasons. He’s managed just a .179/.216/.309 slash in 218 plate appearances between the D-backs and Blue Jays, but Brito has been much more productive with regular playing time both in the KBO and in Triple-A, where he’s a lifetime .287/.339/.467 hitter in just 1960 plate appearances. He’s played primarily right field (5126 innings) and center field (4883 innings) in his professional career, with the Tigers opting to deploy him as their primary center fielder this past season.

If Brito continues to thrive against KBO pitching and play display the ability to play a competent center field, he’s young enough that he could yet engineer a big league return, but for now he’ll focus on replicating his 2022 success next season.

Eric Hosmer Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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In one of the most obvious opt-out decisions in recent memory, Red Sox first baseman Eric Hosmer will forgo his opportunity to return to the open market, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s now locked into the final three years and $39MM of the contract, although the Sox are only on the hook for the league minimum in each of the next three seasons. The Padres are paying the remainder of Hosmer’s salary each season under the terms of the deadline trade that sent him to Boston.

The eight-year, $144MM contract Hosmer signed with San Diego prior to the 2018 season went south almost immediately. A then-27-year-old Hosmer posted a massive .318/.385/.498 slash and swatted 25 homers for the second consecutive season in 2017 — his final year with the Royals, who originally drafted him No. 3 overall in 2008. That led to the aforementioned eight-year deal for Hosmer, but his offensive production cratered in year one with the Friars, as he hit just .253/.322/.398 in his first year with the team.

Over the first five seasons of that nine-figure contract, Hosmer has been exactly average at the plate, by measure of wRC+. He’s hit .265/.325/.409 and averaged 18 home runs and 30 doubles per 162 games played. Hosmer hasn’t necessarily been a bad hitter, but his $18MM annual salary was promised to him under the assumption that he’d continue on as a well above-average, middle-of-the-order hitter.

That simply hasn’t been the case, due in large part to the fact that Hosmer’s bloated ground-ball rate with the Royals actually got even higher with the Friars. Since signing in San Diego, 56.5% of Hosmer’s batted balls have been hit on the ground — the fourth-highest mark among 315 qualified MLB hitters in that stretch. Perhaps the limitations on infield shifts that are coming in 2023 will help Hosmer in that regard, but his repeated inability to elevate the ball will continue to suppress his power output.

The Padres traded Hosmer and a pair of minor leaguers (Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson) to the Red Sox in exchange for former first-round pick Jay Groome, agreeing to pay Hosmer’s salary down to the league minimum as part of the contract. Hosmer also was granted a full no-trade clause as part of that deal, so he’ll have the final say on whether he’ll remain in Boston through 2025 unless the Sox ultimately release him. For now, he’ll give the Red Sox a cost-effective veteran first baseman or perhaps designated hitter, dependent on when the team is ready to give top prospect Triston Casas a full-time look in the big leagues.

The Opener: Angels, Senga, Options And QO Deadline

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As MLB’s offseason kicks into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Angels Won’t Trade Ohtani, But What Will They Do?

Few teams around baseball face as much uncertainty this offseason as the Angels do. Owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, and rumors of Shohei Ohtani being traded this offseason have swirled practically since the moment the trade deadline passed. Yesterday GM Perry Minasian announced that the team would not be fielding offers on Ohtani and he would remain with the team through Opening Day. With Ohtani set to test the free agent market after the 2023 season, the Angels will no doubt try to remain competitive, but a 73-89 showing in 2022 leaves Anaheim with a lot of work to do this offseason. Minasian notes that multi-year deals are on the table in spite of the club’s recent tendency toward one year agreements in previous offseasons, though it’s fair to wonder if Moreno would make major, long-term additions to a club’s payroll in the months running up to a sale. Starting pitching isn’t quite as big of a need as it has been in previous years due to the emergence of youngsters like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, but another arm for the middle of the rotation likely ought to still be a priority. Perhaps the biggest need the Angels will have to address this offseason if they want to compete in 2023 is the bullpen, where Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup disappointed last year, and closer Raisel Iglesias was moved to the Braves at the trade deadline. Almost as important is addressing the infield; Luis Rengifo looked like a serviceable regular in 2022, but both David Fletcher and Jared Walsh struggled in 2023, and Anthony Rendon’s injury woes in recent seasons leave third base up in the air as well. A righty-hitting complement to Walsh and a shortstop-capable bat could be other sensible additions to the Angels offseason shopping list.

2. Senga’s Market Begins To Develop

While the vast majority of free agency is still tied up in their club’s exclusive negotiating window, international free agent Koudai Senga faces no such restrictions, and a potential suitor has already emerged: the Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmeyer talked with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who noted the Cubs had been in contact with him about Senga and that Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, another Wolfe client, has “loved” his experience in Chicago thus far. Rumors about the Cubs having interest in Senga have percolated for months, and with plenty of space available in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks, they may be an attractive destination for Senga.

3. Options, Qualifying Offer Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview earlier this week, the deadline for option decisions, as well as for teams to extend the Qualifying Offer to their pending free agents, is this Thursday, November 10th. Many option decisions have already been made, with Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura among those who have most recently hit the free agent market officially. More option decisions remain, however. One particularly interesting example is James Paxton, whose dilemma Anthony Franco discussed yesterday. Anthony also previewed the upcoming QO decisions last week, with the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Haniger among the most interesting borderline cases. For a refresher on what draft picks are at stake with regards to the QO, you can check out Tim Dierkes’s post on the matter.

Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura

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As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.

The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.

The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.

Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.

There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.

The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.

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