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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals’ 107 losses in 2022 tied the second-highest loss total in the franchise’s 54-year history in Washington and Montreal.  While the club hopes for some improvement next year, it may still be a relatively quiet offseason as the Nats continue their rebuilding path.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Nelson Cruz, DH: $16MM mutual option for 2023 ($3MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With the Lerner family expected to sell the Nationals, the ownership question is certainly the biggest-picture issue hanging over the team’s offseason.  Details about the potential sale have been in relatively short supply, which means that it could still be some time before a buyer emerges, and before the sale is officially approved by the league.

Until a new owner is officially confirmed, the Nats are in something of a limbo, though their direction was already clear even before the Lerners announced their exploration of a sale in April 2022.  The offloading of veteran talent began at the 2021 trade deadline (highlighted by the Nationals’ move of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers), and Washington was again a big seller at the last deadline, with Juan Soto and Josh Bell dealt to the Padres in another headline swap.

Those two blockbusters and a collection of other deals brought a wealth of young talent into the District, to the point that the Nationals hope a good chunk of their next winning core is already in place.  Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, James Wood, Lane Thomas, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Robert Hassell III are all viewed as potential long-term contributors, and the progress of this group (plus other homegrown products like Luis Garcia and Cade Cavalli, among others) in 2023 may help president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo determine the rebuild’s timeline.

During the last two offseasons, Rizzo’s front office targeted veterans on short-term contracts, first in an attempt to return to contention in 2021, and then mostly about filling roster holes last winter.  That strategy is likely to continue this offseason, though it can’t be assumed that the Nationals will only pursue stopgap-esque players.  Even with the arrow directly pointed in the rebuild direction last offseason, the Nats still spent $15MM on a one-year guarantee for Nelson Cruz, as the club was hopeful that Cruz could at least be a trade chip come deadline time.

Unfortunately for Cruz and the Nats, time finally seemed to catch up to the veteran slugger, as Cruz’s .234/.313/.337 slash line over 507 plate appearances resulted in his worst OPS since 2007.  It is possible that Cruz’s upcoming eye surgery will correct the vision problems that certainly contributed to this decline, but the Nats aren’t likely to take the $13MM risk (the cost of exercising their end of Cruz’s mutual option) on Cruz bouncing back at age 42.

It also seems like Washington has its first base/DH situation somewhat settled heading into 2023, so there isn’t an ideal spot for Cruz on the roster.  Luke Voit was the most experienced player who came to the Nationals in the Soto/Bell trade, and though Voit didn’t excel after the deal, his 102 wRC+ (from 22 homers and a .226/.308/.402 over 568 PA) for the entire season was still slightly above the league average.

Voit’s projected $8.2MM arbitration price tag is a little hefty, and it isn’t out of the question that the Nationals might non-tender him in search of a cheaper first baseman/DH type.  Voit was such a productive bat with the Yankees in 2018-20 that even though he has been more average in the last two seasons, the Nats might give him another chance to bounce back and potentially become a July trade chip.

Remarkably, Voit is more of a question mark in next season’s first base/DH mix than Joey Meneses, a longtime journeyman whose career took him to Mexico, Japan, and several stops in the minor leagues.  Signed to a minor league deal by the Nationals last winter, Meneses made his MLB debut on Aug. 2, and then surprisingly took the league by storm.  From Aug. 2 until the end of the season, only 11 qualified hitters in all of baseball topped Meneses’ 156 wRC+, as the 30-year-old hit .324/.367/.563 with 13 homers.

Meneses did benefit from a big .371 BABIP, and 240 plate appearances isn’t a big enough sample size to suddenly tag the 30-year-old as a surefire superstar.  That said, Meneses’ numbers are hard to ignore, and his 47.1% hard-hit rate is a sign that his inflated BABIP wasn’t sheer luck.  His unexpected breakout is already a great story, and from the Nationals’ perspective, there isn’t really any reason not to go with Meneses as the projected Opening Day first baseman.

If Meneses keeps hitting, he could even be a late-blooming addition to the Nationals’ rebuild plans, or perhaps a sneaky-valuable trade chip at the deadline if the Nats wanted to sell high.  Trading Meneses this winter can’t be ruled out, if another team is enamored enough by those 240 PA and Washington gets a good enough offer.  Such a swap would leave the Nats looking for more first base depth, however, and Meneses’ 2022 performance was so strong that the Nationals surely prefer to hang onto him a bit longer to see exactly what they have.

Most of the other infield spots are set, with Ruiz behind the plate, Abrams at shortstop, and Garcia at second base.  Ildemaro Vargas played well over 53 games of infield duty, and the Nats might just retain him at a projected $1.1MM arbitration cost to either serve as the utility infielder, or to take at least a platoon role at third base.

Carter Kieboom missed the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery, robbing the former top prospect of another opportunity to finally cement himself as a big league regular.  Kieboom has hit only .197/.304/.285 over 414 PA from 2019-21, and while that sample size still isn’t huge, he’s already 25 years old and now coming off a lost year.  The rebuild allows the Nationals some extra patience in giving Kieboom more time, and ideally, he’d return healthy and emerge as the top third base option over the course of the season.  Rizzo has already stated that Kieboom will compete for the job next spring.

If not Kieboom, Vargas is on hand to handle third base, and the Nationals could explore adding another multi-position veteran for further depth in both the infield and perhaps the outfield.  Jace Peterson, Donovan Solano, or old friend Josh Harrison could be options for this role on the free-agent market, and similarly lower-cost players could also be fits for D.C. in trade talks.  Re-signing Cesar Hernandez is a possibility, though he didn’t hit much in his first year with Washington.

Thomas is basically the only player assured of regular playing time in the outfield, though Thomas’ first full year in the District saw him deliver only a 96 wRC+ (.241/.301/.404 in 548 PA).  Meneses played some right field and could also be a factor on the grass, though defensive metrics suggest that Meneses is much better suited to a first-base role.  Late-season waiver claim Alex Call played well enough that the Nats will likely give him another look in a part-time role, and the Nats might simply just again pair Call and Yadiel Hernandez together as a left-field platoon.  Thomas’ ability to play center or right field gives Washington some flexibility in determining how they’ll address the other outfield spot.

This could include parting ways with former top prospect Victor Robles, who struggled at the plate for the third consecutive season.  Robles at least had an excellent defensive year, and at the cost of a projected $2.5MM arbitration salary, the Nationals might deem that an acceptable number for a plus glove in center field.  Robles’ defensive prowess would give the Nats something to market in trade talks before they consider a non-tender, and Robles’ prospect pedigree might interest a team who could view him as a change-of-scenery candidate.

Even if Robles was retained, the outfield still looks like a possible landing spot for a veteran hitter on a one-year deal, with any of Robles, Hernandez, or Call relegated to backup duty.  Again with an eye towards trading this player at the deadline, Washington could be a fit for such free agents as Michael Brantley, Tommy Pham, or Corey Dickerson.  Since the Nationals had the worst record in baseball, they also get some extra leverage in waiver priority to adding players who might get designated for assignment.

Moving to the rotation, Gray had a lot of struggles in his first full MLB season, allowing a league-high 38 homers over his 148 2/3 innings of work.  Gore got off to a great start in his rookie season, though started to struggle in June, and then didn’t pitch in the majors at all after July 25 due to elbow inflammation (and hasn’t officially made his debut in a Nats uniform).  Cavalli also had some shoulder inflammation late in the season, which limited him to a single outing in his first taste of the majors.

While not really a sterling year for any of the trio, the Nationals can only hope for better health and more improvement, as drastic improvement is needed from the starting pitching corps.  Washington had arguably the worst rotation in baseball in 2022, but the Nats into next season with a tentative top five already in place — Gray, Gore, Cavalli, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg.

Naturally, there isn’t much certainty in this group.  Corbin ate 152 2/3 innings but posted only a 6.31 ERA and a blue-tinged Statcast page, although his 4.34 SIERA indicates that he was hurt to some extent by the Nationals’ porous defense.  Still, this marks three straight subpar seasons for Corbin, who is still owed $59MM over the final two years of his six-year, $140MM contract.  Unless the Nationals can move Corbin for another team’s undesirable contract, the veteran left-hander holds no trade value, leaving the Nats to hope he can regain any of his old form over the final two years of the deal.

The situation is even more dire with Strasburg, who appeared in just one game last season, and has pitched only 31 1/3 total innings since the start of the 2020 season.  As thoracic outlet syndrome continues to plague Strasburg’s career, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to reliably pitch again, let alone pitch effectively or get anywhere close to his past All-Star form.

There is certainly plenty of cause for the Nationals to augment this projected rotation with some starting depth.  Erick Fedde might be tendered a contract simply due to this need for depth, though Fedde has also struggled to deliver results.  Advanced metrics didn’t care for Anibal Sanchez’s performance in 2022, but the veteran’s comeback had the solid bottom-line result of a 4.28 ERA over 69 1/3 innings.  He could serve as pitching depth on a minor league pact.  Whether Sanchez or another experienced pitcher or two, any new arms acquired would (once again) profile as possible deadline trade candidates, and would likely be on the more inexpensive side.

Some help will be needed for the bullpen, as Erasmo Ramirez and Steve Cishek are both free agents, and Tanner Rainey will miss most or all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery.  Kyle Finnegan pitched well in the closer’s role after Rainey was injured, so Finnegan probably has the inside track for ninth-inning work in 2023, though Washington might seek out a veteran with closing experience to provide Finnegan with competition.  Lefty Sean Doolittle has already expressed interest in a reunion with the Nats after missing most of the season due to elbow surgery.

Unexpectedly, the Nationals’ bullpen was something of a bright spot in the dismal 107-loss season, after the relief corps was so often a weak link for the Nats’ contending teams in the past decade.   They’ll return four relievers — Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Hunter Harvey and Andres Machado — who had at least 39 innings with ERAs of 3.51 or better.  Anyone from that group could be considered a trade candidate this winter, but it’s unlikely any of the four would draw a massive return.

Without any top-tier trade options remaining on the roster, it could be that a lot of the heaviest lifting is over with the rebuild.  The Nationals will now have to play the waiting game and see which of their current young players emerge in the majors, and which longer-term prospects continue to develop and climb the minor league ladder.  Since any additions to the MLB roster are likely to be relatively mild in nature,  the results of the ownership search will probably generate the biggest headlines of the Nationals’ offseason.

Eric Hosmer Gained Full No-Trade Rights With Deal To Red Sox

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Eric Hosmer’s contract with the Padres contained a limited no-trade clause, one which became a central topic for a few hours on the day of the deadline. Initially reported to be included in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell swap as a means of offsetting salary, Hosmer used his no-trade rights to block a move to a last-place Washington club.

The Friars and Nats went through with the Soto swap, subbing in Luke Voit instead. San Diego then pivoted and dealt Hosmer to the Red Sox — a team that was not on his no-trade list — along with minor leaguers Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson for pitching prospect Jay Groome. As part of that swap, San Diego agreed to pay down all the remaining money on Hosmer’s contract minus the league minimum.

Hosmer still has three years and $39MM remaining on that deal, as he’ll certainly bypass the chance to opt out and retest free agency this winter. For the next trio of seasons, he’ll also have complete no-trade protection. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Hosmer’s contract contains a stipulation that he’d receive a full no-trade clause if San Diego traded him. The move to Boston triggered that provision, giving Hosmer control over any future movement.

While it was hard for the Padres to find a taker for the 12-year veteran on his $144MM deal, a trade from Boston isn’t difficult to envision. With the Red Sox not responsible for any notable chunk of money, they could market Hosmer to other teams for virtually no financial penalty. Boston still would not receive an immense return in that scenario, but he’d be a plausible buy-low candidate for a team seeking a left-handed bat.

Hosmer hit .268/.334/.382 across 419 plate appearances this season. While he was actually far better against left-handed pitching than righties in a small sample this year, he has more typical platoon splits over a multi-year span. Dating back to the start of 2020, he owns a .270/.346/.414 line while holding the platoon advantage. With San Diego on the hook for the salary, Hosmer’s solid bat against right-handed pitching and strong clubhouse reputation could have some appeal on the trade market.

The Red Sox figure to be open to parting with the 32-year-old, as Boston broke in top prospect Triston Casas late in the season. Baseball America’s #19 prospect entering the year, Casas hit .273/.382/.481 across 317 plate appearances at Triple-A Worcester to earn an MLB call in September. While he only hit .197 in his first 27 MLB games, the former first-rounder slugged five home runs and took 19 walks against 23 strikeouts. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom praised Casas’ plate discipline last week (link via Christopher Smith of MassLive) and conceded he “(doesn’t) know yet” whether Boston would be prepared to devote active roster spots to both Hosmer and Casas. Each hits left-handed and is limited to first base or designated hitter. While the Sox will see DH J.D. Martinez hit free agency, they could certainly retain Martinez or bring in another bat in an effort to bolster a lineup that was a hair better than average this season.

Boston’s limited financial commitments to Hosmer mean they presumably wouldn’t have any qualms about releasing him if they felt they were squeezed for flexibility by carrying multiple first basemen. It stands to reason they’d prefer to trade him for even a modest return than release him altogether if it came to that, but the revelation that Hosmer can block any deal adds a wrinkle to that potential scenario, although it’s certainly one of which the Boston front office was aware at the time they acquired him.

White Sox Interview Joe Espada In Managerial Search

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The White Sox interviewed Astros bench coach Joe Espada today as part of their managerial search, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Chicago has also reached out to Braves third base coach Ron Washington, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN (on Twitter). It isn’t clear whether Washington plans to interview.

Espada becomes the second known candidate to sit down with Chicago. ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reported last week that Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol also had an interview set up with the Sox at some point. Both Espada and Grifol also interviewed for the Marlins vacancy this week, and the latter is a candidate to assume Kansas City’s vacant managerial position as well.

The 47-year-old Espada has never managed in the majors, but he’s certainly drawn a fair bit of interest on that front. The Puerto Rico native was reportedly a finalist in the Mets search that eventually led to Buck Showalter last winter, and he’s gotten past looks from the A’s, Giants, Cubs and Twins, among others. While he’s not gotten a managerial nod, Espada has held the bench coach role for a number of excellent Houston teams going back to 2018. He’s worked under both A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker, demonstrating the value multiple skippers have placed on his input.

Over the weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that the Sox preferred to hire a veteran manager to replace Tony La Russa. The interviews with Grifol and Espada suggest they’re not ruling out first-time candidates early in the process, at least. Still, it’s notable that Washington does have a fair bit of experience in the role. He managed the Rangers between 2007-14, leading Texas to back-to-back AL pennants in 2011-12. The 70-year-old has spent the past six seasons on the Atlanta staff as Brian Snitker’s third base coach.

Brewers Notes: Stearns, Wong, Turang

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The Brewers entered the 2022 season with high expectations on the heels of a 95-win campaign, but Milwaukee came up a bit short of a playoff berth. The Brew Crew finished 86-76 and were eliminated two days before the final game of the regular season.

President of baseball operations David Stearns met with reporters yesterday to discuss the team’s finish (link via Curt Hogg and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). He unsurprisingly expressed disappointment with missing the postseason, for which he took no small share of the blame. Asked about the team’s trade deadline approach — specifically the decision to deal All-Star reliever Josh Hader to the Padres for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet (who was almost immediately waived) and prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser — Stearns acknowledged he didn’t fully appreciate how much of an impact the trade would have in the clubhouse and on the field.

“The Hader trade clearly had an impact on the team,” Stearns said. “It had a more pronounced impact than I thought it would at the time, and the surrounding moves didn’t adequately fortify the team in Josh’s absence.” He stopped short of saying he regretted the move, pointing to the long-term window of club control the team has over Ruiz and Gasser. He nevertheless noted that not making the postseason despite having a lead in the division as late as August 5 leads to “(looking) back and (saying) what more could we have done, what different could we have done.”

Hader himself wasn’t lights-out for San Diego. Through 16 innings as a Padre, the hard-throwing southpaw allowed 14 runs with a 28.2% strikeout rate that is far below his career norm. Yet a key justification for the Milwaukee front office in pulling the trigger on the deal was the assumption Rogers would step in as a productive relief arm himself. Instead, he posted a 5.48 ERA in 23 innings down the stretch, struggling mightily with the home run ball. Home runs were also an issue for Matt Bush, whom the Brewers added in a separate trade with the Rangers and who pitched to a 4.30 mark in 23 frames. Milwaukee’s acquisition of Trevor Rosenthal from the Giants, meanwhile, fell flat when he suffered a lat injury while trying to rehab from a hamstring strain that had him on the injured list at the time of the swap. Overall, the Milwaukee bullpen blew an MLB-worst 16 leads from deadline day forward.

That certainly wasn’t all foreseeable for the front office, but there’s no question the Brewers tried to thread a needle between remaining competitive while adding longer-term talent to the organization. That’s partially because of the franchise’s payroll outlook. Milwaukee has a massive arbitration class this winter, with 18 players eligible for that process. They won’t all be tendered contracts, but stars like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for salaries north of $9MM during their penultimate years of club control. Hader, who’s headed into his final year of control, is projected for a $13.6MM salary.

Finances are always a consideration for a Milwaukee franchise that annually runs payrolls slightly below the league average. The hefty arbitration class could be a factor in the team’s decision whether to exercise a club option on second baseman Kolten Wong. Milwaukee holds a $10MM option or a $2MM buyout, leaving them with a net $8MM call as to whether to keep him for a third season. That’s a perfectly reasonable price in a vacuum, as Wong is coming off a .251/.339/.430 showing with 15 home runs across 497 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, that production was 16 points above that of this year’s league average hitter, the best hitting season of Wong’s career.

Nevertheless, the Brewers have to weigh those strong offensive marks against a bizarrely poor defensive season. Wong is a two-time Gold Glove winner and typically a plus defender, but Statcast pegged him as seven runs below average this year. Defensive Runs Saved estimated him as just one run below par, but all public metrics agreed it was the worst defensive season of his career. Wong himself shared that sentiment, telling Hogg (separate Journal-Sentinel post) “defensively, it just wasn’t even my year” and vowing to work over the offseason to better his glovework. While that’s certainly an encouraging attitude, it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be able to recapture his peak defensive form at age 32.

Wong also addressed his contract status. While he told Hogg he’d be happy to see his option picked up, he acknowledged Milwaukee’s hefty arbitration class and the presence of former first-round pick Brice Turang in the upper minors. Turang, 23 in November, spent all of last season at Triple-A Nashville. He hit .286/.360/.412 with 13 homers and 34 stolen bases through 603 plate appearances. Regarded as a quality defensive middle infielder, the lefty-swinging Turang will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason and could be a cheaper second base option if the Brewers decided to part with Wong.

While Wong indicated he’s not yet heard from the team one way or the other, he suggested he’d be content to explore his free agent options if it comes to that. “I’ve been a free agent one time already and it’s not the most enjoyable thing,” he told Hogg. “If I got to go through it again, it is what it is. It will be interesting to see where I’d end up landing. Milwaukee was a choice that I kind of had in mind going into free agency as a high pick for me. This next one, I just kind of want to keep an open mind and see how it goes.”

If Wong were sent back into free agency, he’d be arguably the top player in the second base class. Jean Segura, who’s likely to be bought out by the Phillies, and utilityman Brandon Drury are otherwise the best players who’ll be available.

Mets Outright Michael Perez

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The Mets have sent catcher Michael Perez outright to Triple-A Syracuse, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Perez was designated for assignment last week.

Perez, 30, made his MLB debut with Tampa in 2018 and spent his first three seasons there. He went to the Pirates on a waiver claim after the 2020 season and was with them until July of this year, when he was designated for assignment and then flipped to the Mets for cash considerations.

Perez has never been given an extended stretch of playing time in the big leagues, with last year’s 70 games a career high. He hasn’t produced much with the bat in those small samples, producing a career batting line of .174/.244/.301 for a wRC+ of 51. This year was roughly the same, as he hit .149/.214/.298 between the Bucs and Mets. He’s generally fared better in Triple-A, however, hitting .260/.341/.445 across parts of four seasons at that level.

Players with more than three years of MLB service time or those who have previously been outrighted in their career can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. Perez qualifies on both counts and will likely opt for the open market, though there’s no official word that he has done so just yet.

Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Upcoming Offseason

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After six straight winning seasons from 2015 to 2020, which included five postseason berths and a World Series title, the Cubs have entered a rebuild and finished below .500 the past two years. As the fans hope for better days ahead, club chairman Tom Ricketts released a statement as the team switches gears from the season to the offseason.

“We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster,” Ricketts says, as relayed by Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. “As [president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer] has demonstrated, we will be driven by intelligent decision-making as we build a roster that can win games in the postseason – year in and year out.”

The word “active” in that statement is likely attractive to some, though it’s worth pointing that it can mean many different things. The Cubs were certainly active in free agency last year, giving out 12 deals to players who were on the open market. However, Seiya Suzuki was a special case since he was 27 years old at the time and coming over from playing in Japan. Marcus Stroman got a substantial deal, but on a shorter-than-expected three-year term with an opt out after year two. Apart from that, the deals for veterans were all on the modest side, both in terms of dollars and years.

Hoyer talked about spending money “intelligently” last year and Rickets echoed that in his statement. Hoyer, too, doubled down on his own comments from a year ago. “I think last year we talked a lot about intelligent spending, and I think we’ll certainly look to do that again.”

The shape of that spending remains to be seen, but the club should have some money to work with. The club had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM this year, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, a far cry from their previous high of $203MM in 2019. For next year, their commitments are currently around $109MM without factoring in arbitration-eligible players, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Looking at the arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, retaining the entire class would cost the Cubs around $25MM, though not all of those players will be tendered contracts.

Even if the club plans to roll out a similar payroll in 2023 as they did this year, they would have some room to work with, though it’s possible that number could go up. “If we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players, I have no doubt that we’ll have his blessing,” Hoyer said during a recent conference, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

It’s been previously reported that the Cubs have interest in pursuing this winter’s crop of marquee free agent shortstops, though it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in that pursuit. Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are slated for free agency, with Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa widely expected to join them by opting out of their respective contracts. Each of those four will require a significant investment, of course, with all of them likely to earn nine-figure deals. The Cubs haven’t given out a contract of that size since the Yu Darvish deal back in 2018, when they were much more firmly in win-now mode. If they don’t shop in the expensive aisle, there’s a significant drop to the next-best available shortstops, with Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus highlighting the second tier.

Of course, it’s also possible that the club uses its resources on players already on the roster, locking them up for future seasons via extension. Two players who could be candidates are outfielder Ian Happ and infielder Nico Hoerner. When asked about whether the club has talked to those players about new contracts, Hoyer tells Lee that they have “taken the first steps.”

In the case of Happ, he has just a single year of team control remaining and is projected to earn a salary of about $10.6MM next season. Due to his approaching free agency, he was often mentioned in trade rumors this summer but ended up sticking with the Cubs beyond the deadline. 2022 was his sixth season in the big leagues, with Happ posting above-average offense in each of them. This year, his .271/.342/.440 batting line was 20% above league average, by measure of wRC+. His work in the outfield was also graded positively, leading to him producing 3.5 wins above replacement this year, in the eyes of FanGraphs. He just turned 28 and will therefore be heading into free agency shortly after his 29th birthday, meaning the Cubs would likely have to cut a decent check to get him to forgo that opportunity.

In Hoerner’s case, he’s just 25 and heading into his first arbitration season, projected to get a salary of $2.2MM next year. Given his extra control, it’s more likely that he will be playing for the next competitive Cubs team and could theoretically be a higher priority for the team. He had a very nice all-around season here in 2022, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 20 bases. He hit .281/.327/.410 for a wRC+ of 106 and also provided excellent shortstop defense, leading to a tally of 4.0 fWAR for the year.

Of course, if the Cubs succeed in convincing a free agent shortstop to join the club, they would have to figure out how to get that player into the lineup next to Hoerner. It seems the most likely path would be Hoerner moving over to second base, a position he has played before. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic relays that Hoyer doesn’t see a problem with moving Hoerner to the other side of the bag, especially with the new anti-shift rules that go into place next year. With less shifting, it’s possible teams will look to have an extra level of athleticism at the keystone to provide greater range, something that is less necessary with shifting.

“We have total confidence in Nico’s ability to play shortstop,” Hoyer says. “But, yes, the way the game is trending, athleticism in the middle infield will make a big difference.” It doesn’t seem like Hoerner would put up a fight if the club asked him to make the switch. “He actually gets mad when you talk about him, which is pretty amazing,” Hoyer said. “He wants to talk about the Cubs. He wants to talk about winning. He wants to talk about the culture. So it was pretty easy with him. As long as you’re talking about winning and what can make us great, Nico’s totally on board.”

There are still many directions the offseason can go for Chicago, and there are reasons to be slightly more optimistic than a year ago. Despite another losing season, the club finished strong, going 33-28 from the start of August until the end of the schedule. “We certainly want next season to look a lot more like our second half than our first half,” Hoyer says, per Lee. “And if it does, we do have a chance to be in the race and play meaningful games throughout the entire season. And, hopefully, that means competing in October.” How aggressive they are in bolstering their roster for next year will be determined in the months to come.

Billy Beane Discusses A’s Future

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Long-time fans of the Athletics are probably somewhat accustomed to the boom-and-bust cycle of the club by now, with the team oscillating between contenting and rebuilding throughout the 25-year period since Billy Beane took over as general manager. Although Beane was promoted to executive vice president of baseball operations in 2015 with David Forst taking over as GM, the cycle hasn’t stopped.

However, it’s possible that this up-and-down sequence is now in a deeper valley than ever before. After trading away just about every player making a meaningful salary in the past year, the club finished 2022 with a record of 60-102, their worst showing since losing 108 games in 1979. Financially, the club has stripped the payroll back about as close to zero as a team can get. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams laid out in his recent Offseason Outlook piece, the club has no guaranteed contracts and a small arbitration class, most of whom could plausibly be non-tendered or traded.

Still, the opinion of the front office seems to be that this is a road they’ve been down before. Forst and Beane both spoke to the media this week, with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara and John Shea both reporting on some of the comments. “As long as I’ve been here and worked with Billy,” Forst says, “we’ve worked with what we’ve got, done our best to put the most competitive team we can out there,” before adding, “I don’t think this is any different from what we’ve dealt with at various times over the last 20-plus years.”

Forst and Beane seem to be aware that the poor results were due to decisions made above field level and aren’t falling at the feet of manager Mark Kotsay. This was his first year at the helm after Bob Melvin departed for the Padres a year ago. “He lost some great players and some critical players, and he handled it as well as you could expect, particularly given your first year,” Beane says of Kotsay’s performance in his first season on the job. It seems that Kotsay won’t be evaluated based on wins and losses for the time being, which makes sense.

Climbing back into contention from this nadir won’t be easy, especially without financial resources. The A’s have never been big spenders, with 2019’s Opening Day payroll of $92MM a franchise record. This year, however, they were barely half that, coming in at $48MM, according to figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Beane tells Kawahara that next year’s payroll is “still in discussion.”

One thing impacting the club’s financial future is the ongoing uncertainty around the stadium situation. The club has been in negotiations with the city of Oakland for quite some time about an ambitious project at Howard Terminal. The club has long hoped to make progress on the $12 billion project this year, before upcoming municipal elections lead to a new mayor and change the face of the city’s council. However, Shea reports that it’s likely to get kicked down to the road until after the elections. If it doesn’t end up working out, the club has explored the possibility of following the example of the Raiders and moving to Las Vegas.

Regardless of the slow progression, Beane remains optimistic. “At some point, we will have a new stadium,” he says. “That’s what makes me feel good. I hope it’s within my tenure. But we will. I think the organization, the city deserve it, and it’ll happen.” Still, until there’s some progress, it seems the team will be in a sort or holding pattern. “The frustration from a team standpoint is, yeah, it would be nice to be at that point where we could have some continuity,” Beane added. “We don’t. And until we have a new venue, we’re not going to.”

Amid all that frustration, Beane doesn’t seem to have given any strong consideration to pursuing outside opportunities. About a year ago, the Mets obtained permission to speak to Beane about a position in their front office, though he withdrew himself from the running. Despite the uncertainty in other areas of the franchise, one thing that can seemingly be counted on is Beane’s presence. “If you project five years from now, I believe I will always have something to do with the A’s, until they don’t want me here,” Beane tells Shea. “What will continue no matter what, until they want to want to kick me out the door, is I will have some involvement and some association always with the A’s, is what I believe. I have no intention of ending that.”

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers spent half a billion dollars last winter and still lost 94 games in 2022. The focus was always more on the 2023 season than the 2022 campaign, given the timeline of the team’s top prospects. Still, ownership likely expected better results, as evidenced by the surprising August dismissal of president of baseball operations Jon Daniels — who’d been the third-longest-tenured baseball ops leader in the game. It’s now general manager Chris Young’s ship to steer.

Guaranteed Contracts

2023 commitments: $80MM
Total long-term commitments: $482.5MM

Option Decisions

  • Jose Leclerc, RHP: $6MM club option for 2023 with a $750K buyout (contract also contains $6.25MM club option for 2024)
  • Kole Calhoun, OF: $5.5MM club option for 2023 (no buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Player (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With Young installed as the baseball operations leader, the Rangers don’t need to go through a time-consuming search for a new front office boss. However, Young’s first order of business will be to determine whether interim manager Tony Beasley, who stepped up when manager Chris Woodward was fired (just two days before Daniels), is right for the permanent job. The 55-year-old Beasley’s time with the Rangers organization predates Young by years; Young, in fact, was still active as a player and won a World Series ring with the Royals in 2015 while Beasley was just getting started as a Rangers coach.

Given his eight-year stint on the Rangers’ staff, Beasley will likely have a role of some sort offered to him, even if he’s not tabbed as the long-term skipper. It’s common, however, for a newly minted general manager or president of baseball operations to want to bring in his own field staff. Young has already interviewed Beasley, but he’ll presumably be just one of several candidates.

Whether it’s Beasley or an outside hire, the new manager and Young will be tasked with finding a new pitching coach, as co-pitching coaches Doug Mathis and Brendan Sagara were ousted earlier this month. As with any managerial change — particularly one on the heels of a disappointing season — it’s possible the switch could bring about further turnover on the coaching staff.

As far as the roster is concerned, left-hander Martin Perez’s future is the first piece of the offseason puzzle for Young and his staff to consider. Originally signed by the Rangers more than a decade ago, the now-31-year-old Perez ranked as one of the game’s top overall prospects while rising through the minor league ranks. He had a solid, if unspectacular rookie campaign as a 22-year-old, and the organization saw enough to lock Perez up on a four-year extension with multiple club options.

As is too often the case with pitchers, injuries set in and quickly derailed the promising start to Perez’s career. He had Tommy John surgery in 2014, missed most of the 2014-15 seasons as a result, and upon returning settled in as a fifth starter — never recreating the 3.62 ERA that led to a sixth-place Rookie of the Year finish for him in 2013. Perez bounced from Texas, to Minnesota, to Boston, soaking up innings at the back of the rotation and generally beginning to look the part of a journeyman.

A one-year, $4MM reunion with Texas last offseason was met with a collective eye roll by many longtime Rangers fans, but Perez not only rebounded — he turned in far and away the best season of his career. Leaning more heavily on his changeup, Perez made 32 starts and piled up 196 1/3 innings with career-best marks in ERA (2.89), strikeout rate (20.6%), FIP (3.27) and Statcast’s “expected” ERA (3.59) — among other categories. Along the way, both he and Young publicly expressed interest in working out an extension, and the two parties are set to meet this week to discuss just that. Given Perez’s strong desire to remain in place and the Rangers’ arguably stronger need for reliable pitching, it seems quite possible that Perez won’t even reach the open market.

Even if the Rangers are able to secure a new contract with Perez — which would surely be a multi-year deal at a much heftier price than this year’s $4MM rate — that’ll just be the beginning of the team’s offseason quest for pitching. Re-signing Perez will give the club some direly needed dependable innings, but even an optimistic projection of Perez’s 2023-24 seasons would bake in some regression from this year’s peak performance. It’s sensible to view Perez as a No. 3/4 starter, but there’s a need for higher-impact arms to lead the starting staff, with or without Perez.

At the moment, right-hander Jon Gray is the only clearly above-average starting pitcher on the Texas staff. Signed to a four-year, $56MM contract last winter, Gray made 24 starts and pitched to a 3.96 ERA through 127 1/3 innings, striking out 25.7% of his opponents against a strong 7.5% walk rate. He had three brief IL stints, all unrelated to his arm (blister, knee strain, oblique strain), but was a solid performer with even better secondary metrics (3.80 FIP, 3.59 xERA, 3.46 SIERA).

Right-hander Dane Dunning, acquired two years ago in the trade that sent Lance Lynn to the White Sox, has proven a capable back-of-the-rotation arm, pitching to a 4.48 ERA in 271 frames since the trade. Both Dunning’s strikeout and walk rate are a bit worse than league average, though he offsets some of that with a very strong 53.6% grounder rate. So long as the hip surgery that ended Dunning’s season doesn’t impact him moving forward, he can be slotted into the fourth or fifth spot on the starting staff.

Righty Glenn Otto and lefties Taylor Hearn and Cole Ragans were the only other Rangers pitchers to work 40 or more innings out of the rotation this season, but the results were lacking. Hearn, who finished the year with a 5.13 ERA in 100 innings, might look like a non-tender candidate at first glance but posted a 3.51 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 41 innings as a reliever. That figures to be his role moving forward. Otto made 27 starts with a 4.64 ERA but more concerning under-the-hood numbers (18.2% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate, 5.21 FIP). Ragans posted a 4.95 ERA in 40 innings with just a 15.5% strikeout rate.

Suffice it to say, the Rangers have a clear, pressing need for both innings and, more importantly, for a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. The free-agent market this winter features several such arms, and it stands to reason that the rumors connecting longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to his hometown Rangers will again swirl this winter. For the bulk of the 2021-22 offseason, it was believed that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, allowing him to live in his Dallas-area home, commute to the park and spend more time with his wife and four young children.

Beyond Kershaw, the market will also include names like Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom, all of whom will opt out of their current contracts and return to the open market. Verlander and deGrom might prefer to sign with surefire contenders, but Rodon will be hitting the market in search of the first long-term deal of his career. If the Rangers are willing to put forth another nine-figure offer to lure a marquee free agent, he’s a viable target. Alternatively, Texas seems like a logical candidate to pursue star Japanese righty Kodai Senga, who boasts a 2.39 ERA over his past four NPB seasons, features a triple-digit heater, and is expected to be available to MLB clubs this winter.

That might seem unfathomable to some onlookers after the aggressive manner in which the Rangers spent last year, but despite doling out a half-billion dollars to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Rangers’ payroll outlook is relatively clean. Texas has just $80MM in contractual guarantees in 2023 and one of the smallest arbitration classes in MLB. By 2024, they have just $74MM on the books, and because each of the Gray, Seager and Semien contracts were slightly front-loaded, those commitments won’t be quite as cumbersome in their later stages as the typical free-agent deal (which is oftentimes backloaded).

The Rangers ran a payroll of more than $142MM this season and have previously taken that number to nearly $175MM. Between that history of spending and the fact they’re still in the early years of a new stadium, it stands to reason that the Rangers will be able to spend aggressively this winter, even after last year’s spending spree. Young, in fact, has already publicly stated that owner Ray Davis has given the green light to increase payroll with the specific focus of improving the pitching staff.

If this feels like a lot of focus on the rotation thus far, well… it is. That’s due both to the acuteness of the need and also due to the fact that the Rangers’ roster is perhaps more rounded than one might expect of a 68-win team. Picking up Jose Leclerc’s $6MM option is an easy call after he returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 2.83 ERA in 47 2/3 innings. He’ll be joined by fellow Tommy John returnee Jonathan Hernandez, 2022 team saves leader Joe Barlow, the aforementioned Hearn and lefty Brock Burke, who had one of the most quietly dominant rookie showings in recent memory: 82 1/3 innings, 1.97 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate.

Certainly, there’s room to add to the relief corps. Journeyman Matt Moore, like Perez, returned for a second stint in Texas this past season and (also like Perez) posted one of the finest seasons of his career. Moore, another once-vaunted starting pitching prospect who never fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, broke out as a successful high-leverage reliever this season, pitching 74 innings of 1.95 ERA ball. As with Perez, there’s good reason for the Rangers to want him back, but Moore should have no shortage of interest in free agency. Whether it’s Moore or another veteran, it’s fair to expect Young & Co. to bring in some reinforcements in the ’pen.

Turning to the lineup, things are mostly set. Seager and Semien will, of course, form the middle-infield duo. Former Rays prospect Nathaniel Lowe turned in a second half for the ages, elevating his stock from quality regular to potential All-Star. Lowe hit .339/.399/.566 following the All-Star break, and while his poor defensive ratings could portend an eventual move to designated hitter, he’s going to rack up as many plate appearances as possible.

Top prospect Josh Jung got a late-season look at third base, and although he struggled in 102 plate appearances, there’s not much left for him to prove in Triple-A. Jung missed most of the season following shoulder surgery but beat his originally projected recovery timeline by a notable margin and returned with a flourish in Triple-A Round Rock. He’s still appeared in just 58 total Triple-A games, so perhaps the organization will want him to spend a bit more time there, but Jung’s .316/.389/.598 batting line at that level doesn’t suggest there’s too much more minor league seasoning required.

Behind the plate, the Rangers entrusted Jonah Heim with the lion’s share of the workload and figure to do so again in 2022. While his .227/.298/.399 batting line isn’t going to win him any awards, Heim smacked 16 home runs and graded out as one of MLB’s top defensive catchers. Former Twins catcher Mitch Garver, the presumptive regular on Opening Day, missed most of the season with a flexor strain that eventually required surgery. He should be healthy again in 2023, but Garver has more than enough bat to mix in as a designated hitter while shouldering a lesser portion of the catching workload than Heim.

Former top prospect Sam Huff gives the Rangers the option of carrying three catching options on the big league roster, and former Royals prospect Meibrys Viloria is also still on the 40-man roster after a strong year in Triple-A — though he’ll be out of options next year.

The window is open for the Rangers to add a veteran corner infield/designated hitter option, but there’s enough depth that they shouldn’t deem it an absolute need. A veteran catcher on a non-roster deal — particularly if Viloria doesn’t hold his 40-man spot — could also be an option. It’s possible Kevin Plawecki will fill this role; Beasley praised Plawecki’s clubhouse presence when explaining the team’s rationale for bringing in a recently released pending free agent with under two weeks remaining in the season.

More broadly, however, if there’s a clear spot in the lineup where the Rangers could invest, it’s in the outfield. Adolis Garcia has cemented his spot in the outfield mix since being acquired from the Cardinals (for cash) prior to the 2021 season, belting 56 homers and swiping 41 bases while posting standout defensive metrics in both center field and right field. The Rangers would surely prefer an improvement on his .293 OBP in that time, but Garcia’s blend of power, speed and defense have generally offset that deficiency.

Elsewhere in the outfield, however, things are more open. Leody Taveras had a decent showing in center field, and fleet-footed rookie Bubba Thompson stole 18 bases despite tallying just 181 plate appearances. That said, Thompson hit only .265/.302/.312, and even that below-average output (77 wRC+) included a grisly 30.9% strikeout rate while being buoyed by a .389 BABIP he’s unlikely to sustain. Taveras’ .344 BABIP mark isn’t as suspect, but if it dips even slightly, his already tepid offense could become untenable.

There are other options on the roster, including 25-year-old Josh Smith, 27-year-old Nick Solak and 28-year-old Eli White. Smith, however, didn’t replicate his strong Triple-A numbers in the Majors. Solak will be out of minor league options next year and might well have played his way off the 40-man roster, whether it be via non-tender or trade. (He did have a solid showing in Round Rock.) White profiles best as a fourth outfielder.

If the Rangers prefer to find an outfield upgrade on the free-agent market, there’s no shortage of options. Brandon Nimmo headlines center field options, but Garcia’s defensive prowess — plus the presence of Taveras — don’t box the Rangers into searching for a center fielder only. Corner options range from clear multi-year candidates like Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Haniger to potentially shorter-term veterans like Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley. There’s enough of an outfield need and enough spending capacity to warrant an obligatory Aaron Judge mention, but it’s hard to envision Judge realistically landing in Texas with such a pronounced need for pitching and with last year’s Seager/Semien mega-deals still being so fresh.

The alternate route for the Rangers to explore, be it for outfield or pitching help, is the trade market. Texas has a quality farm from which to deal, ranking sixth on Baseball America’s midseason ranking of MLB’s minor league systems. Given the need for pitching, one would imagine it’d be hard to deal top prospects/former first-round picks like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Cole Winn. That said, the Rangers still have plenty of position prospects who are blocked long-term on the big league roster and/or who are far enough from the Majors that Young and his staff would consider dealing them in an effort to put a winner on the field now. The aforementioned Smith, outfielder Evan Carter, infielder Ezequiel Duran, and infielders Luisangel Acuna and Justin Foscue would all hold varying levels of value.

Certainly, there’s more than enough value in the Texas system to acquire a controllable outfielder, but the Rangers are also deep enough in minor league talent they can make a compelling offer for virtually any starting pitcher that hits the trade market. A lot will need to go right in 2023 for Texas to reverse course, but this is a team that already ranked eighth in the Majors in home runs (198) and 12th in runs scored (707). There are some organic improvements to the offense on the horizon, and Young will now try to pull the right strings with the pitching staff and in the outfield to position Texas as a surprise postseason contender in 2023.

Tyler Matzek To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek, who was left off the NLDS roster due to elbow discomfort, is undergoing Tommy John surgery today, manager Brian Snitker announced to reporters (Twitter link via Jeff Schultz of The Athletic). Given the timing of the surgery, Matzek will likely miss the entire 2023 season as well.

There’s never really a good time for a baseball player to undergo go Tommy John and then have to spend 12-18 months recovering, but the timing here is especially unfortunate for both Matzek and the team. After winning a fifth-straight NL East crown, the club just began its postseason run yesterday, leaving Matzek off the roster. Now that the prognosis is known, Matzek can be ruled out of the entire playoff run and then some.

2022 was his third season with Atlanta after a lengthy absence due to “the yips.” He pitched for the Rockies in 2014 and 2015 but then dealt with control problems so bad that he was relegated to the minors for chunks of the 2016-2019 period, including missing the 2017 season entirely and pitching in indy ball in 2018. He eventually made his way back to the majors and established himself as a useful piece of the Atlanta bullpen. From 2020 to the present, he’s thrown 135 2/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 38.2% ground ball rate and 27.4% strikeout rate, despite a high 13.4% walk rate.

In addition to that strong work in the regular season, Matzek has shown a knack for taking things up a notch in the playoffs. In 2020, he threw 8 2/3 innings with a 1.04 ERA and followed that up with a 1.72 mark in 15 2/3 frames last year, playing a big role in helping Atlanta grab their first World Series title since 1995. Unfortunately, he won’t get a chance to build on his track record of postseason heroics here in 2022. Without Matzek, the club will charge ahead in their attempt to repeat as champions with A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee as their only lefty relievers.

Looking ahead to next year, Matzek, who turns 32 next week, is eligible for arbitration again after earning $1.4MM here in 2022. He will be due a raise for 2023, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting his salary to come in around $1.8MM. The team could consider not tendering Matzek a contract since he likely won’t be able to contribute at all in 2023. However, if they did tender him a contract, they would still be able to control him for 2024. Since Matzek will likely miss the entire season, he wouldn’t be able to push his 2024 salary much beyond his 2023 number, if at all. Players who are free agents but about to embark on a significant absence will often sign two-year deals with the signing club aware they won’t see a return on their investment until the second half of the deal, and Matzek’s final two arb years could effectively function in that way if the Atlanta front office considers him worth the gamble.

Twins Outright Devin Smeltzer, Jhon Romero

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The Twins have continued a busy few days of 40-man roster management, outrighting pitchers Jhon Romero and Devin Smeltzer after the pair cleared waivers, the team announced. Romero was outrighted to the minors, while Smeltzer elected free agency, per his MLB.com transaction log. It comes after the team recently lost outfielder Jake Cave, catcher Caleb Hamilton and infielder Jermaine Palacios on waivers.

Smeltzer, 27, tossed 70 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball across 12 starts and three relief appearances for the Twins this season. Advanced metrics were less impressed with Smeltzer’s work, and his FIP sat at 5.23. The lefty struck out just 13.9% of batters this season while giving up walks 6.6% of the time.

The Twins acquired Smeltzer from the Dodgers in 2018 in the Brian Dozier deal, and he’s logged 140 innings of work through parts of four seasons as a swingman. Smeltzer’s out of minor league options and having already been outrighted previously in his career, he had the option to elect free agency after passing through waivers. It seems likely he’ll land somewhere on a minor league deal as pitching depth.

Romero, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Nationals during spring training and pitched out of the Twins bullpen to start the season, logging just five innings of 3.60 ERA relief before going down with what would wind up being season-ending biceps tendinitis on April 23. Romero was signed as an international free agent out of Colombia by the Cubs in 2015, and was traded to the Nationals in the Brandon Kintzler deadline deal in 2018.

He throws a fastball, slider, changeup mix and struck out roughly a third of the batters faced as he came up through the minors. Romero’s spent most of the season on the 60-day IL, meaning he wasn’t occupying a spot on the 40-man roster. There remains no clear timeline on his recovery, but regardless of his injury status the Twins would have needed to add him back to the 40 man before the start of the offseason.

Following their recent bevy of moves, the Twins’ 40-man roster now stands at 36 players.

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