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Padres Extend Brad Hand

By Kyle Downing | January 15, 2018 at 12:32pm CDT

MONDAY: Heyman has the full breakdown on Twitter. Hand will receive a $1.75MM signing bonus along with salaries of $3.5MM, $6.5MM, and $7MM in the three guaranteed years of the contract.

SUNDAY: The Padres have officially announced the deal.

SATURDAY, 7:15pm: Hand passed his physical, making the deal official, per Heyman. The club option is worth $10MM and comes with a $1MM buyout, Heyman adds (Twitter link).

9:54am: The Padres have agreed to terms on an extension with left-handed reliever Brad Hand, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s a three-year deal that also comes with a club option. Hand, who is represented by Matt Colleran, will be guaranteed $19.75MM, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. The deal is still pending a physical.

At the end of the day yesterday, we noted that Hand’s arbitration case was still unresolved, and obviously we now understand why arbitration filing figures had not been reported. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports notes in his own tweet that both sides had filed at $3.6MM, indicating that extension talks had almost certainly progressed to a point where both sides were quite confident that a deal would get done.

Sep 18, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Brad Hand (52) gestures during the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The pact, of course, means that the Padres will not need to worry about the arbitration process with their elite reliever again, as the deal is set to cover his final two arb years while giving the club at least one additional year of team control. The team option will allow the Padres up to four years of team control over the southpaw. As Rosenthal adds, that means he’ll be able to enter free agency prior to his age-32 season — though clearly this deal entailed a significant sacrifice of open-market earning upside in exchange for a life-changing guarantee.

Hand has long been considered a valuable candidate, and his new contract seemingly makes it less likely that he’ll be traded this offseason (though his trade value may have actually increased due to the added team control). A while back, MLBTR profiled his potential trade value, noting that he could warrant a return similar to that which the Yankees received from the Indians for Andrew Miller. Instead, the Padres have found a way to keep him in the fold a bit longer… perhaps even into their next window of contention.

The extension is another indication that a rebuilding Padres club could perhaps be gearing up for a return to contention. Earlier this winter, reports surfaced that the club had already made a seven-year contract offer to Eric Hosmer in the nine-figure range. 

Contention window implications aside, keeping Hand in the fold for an extra season or two will help detract from the workload of a fairly young Padres rotation. Last season, their starters averaged 5 1/3 innings per start during the 2017 season, while Hand ranked 6th in the majors with 79 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. Many things could change over the course of the next two seasons, but retaining Hand amidst a bullpen full of question marks will have at least a small benefit to the pitching staff.

The Marlins selected Hand in the second round of the 2008 draft. He came up through their system as a starter, but never gained much traction. Through the end of the 2015 season, he owned a career 4.71 ERA across 288 2/3 innings split between Miami’s rotation and bullpen. His 5.9 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 were also indicative of a below-average pitcher.

After the Padres claimed him off waivers in early April of the following season, they employed him as a reliever full-time and watched him rise to elite status. Over the course of his career in San Diego, Hand has tossed 168 2/3 sterling innings to the tune of a 2.56 ERA with 11.49 K/9 against just 2.99 BB/9. His 6.14 WPA during that time ranks fourth among qualifying relievers in baseball. After the Padres traded Brandon Maurer to the Royals prior to the 2017 trade deadline, the team began to deploy Hand as its closer; he rewarded them by collecting 19 saves across the remaining 2+ months of the season (in addition to the two he’d earned already that year). If he can continue to perform at a similar level, the Padres stand to earn fantastic value from the added year(s) they’ll gain from Hand as a result of this extension.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres Transactions Brad Hand

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Extension Records: Pending Free Agents & Other Veterans

By Jeff Todd | January 15, 2018 at 12:07pm CDT

We have already looked at the record-setting pre-arbitration and mid-arbitration extensions. Today, we’ll turn to those contracts that were struck with players who had already reached their final season of team control, as well as those that were agreed upon with veterans who had already moved past six years of MLB service (even if they had multiple contract years remaining at the time of the deal). You can explore more contracts beyond those we’ve covered with MLBTR’s Extension Tracker.

Biggest Contract, 5+ Service Class

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 7 years, $215MM (plus opt-out)

If you’ve read through the prior two posts in this series, the gulf between position-player and pitching contracts really stands out. But hurlers close the gap with vigor once they drawn near to (or reach) the open market. Kershaw’s deal is the largest, understandably, but hardly the only example of a quality starter getting something in the realm of open-market money when entering or in the midst of their final season of team control. Stephen Strasburg ($175MM), Rick Porcello ($82.5MM), and Danny Duffy ($65MM) have all inked such deals in recent years, with Cole Hamels ($144MM) and Homer Bailey ($105MM) scoring notable prior contracts.

Biggest Contract, 5+ Service Class Position Player

Matt Kemp, Dodgers: 8 years, $160MM

Interestingly, it has been quite some time since we’ve seen a 5+ service-class position player land a monster contract. Brett Gardner’s $52MM deal in early 2014 was the most notable since Andre Ethier ($85MM) and Miguel Montero ($60MM) in 2012. For really significant slugger contracts, you have to go back another year, when Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez ($154MM) got big bucks to forego the possibility of yet greater riches in free agency. At the time of his deal, Kemp was a 27-year-old who had just turned in an MVP-caliber campaign. This contract provides a notable marker for some high-quality players currently nearing free agency, should they agree to engage in talks.

Biggest Contract, 6+ Veteran

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 8 years, $248MM (plus two options)

In some regards, it’s not worthy considering veterans with over six years of service separately from 5+ players that are still in arbitration. Many (but not all) of the former group are, like the latter, just one season away from free agency. That said, there are some general differences — in particular, all highly-paid 6+ players have already sold at least one would-be free agent season — so we’ll break them out. Age is increasingly a factor at this point, though some 6+ players that agreed to earlier-career extensions have still wrangled new deals at young ages. For instance, Joe Mauer’s $184MM contract was signed before his age-27 season. The number of years on the odometer did not dissuade Detroit from re-upping Cabrera two seasons before his existing contract was set to run out. Questionable at the time, that decision is looking all the more troublesome after Cabrera stumbled in 2017. Other major contracts from this bucket include David Wright (link), Ryan Zimmerman (link), and Dustin Pedroia (link).

Biggest Contract, 6+ Veteran Pitcher

Justin Verlander, Tigers: 5 years, $140MM (plus option)

As noted in our mid-arb post, JV and Felix Hernandez (link) followed parallel paths in market-pacing salaries in each of their two extension situations. Other major 6+ pitching extensions include Johan Santana (link), CC Sabathia (link), and Matt Cain (link). While these contracts show that veteran pitchers nearing free agency can still cash in even as they build up mileage on their arms, age and wear-and-tear factor all the more for hurlers. Contract length, then, has proven somewhat harder to achieve. Cabrera, Mauer, Wright, Zimmerman, and Wright all secured eight-year guarantees, while all the pitchers just named settled for five or six-year terms.

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MLBTR Originals Extension Records

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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Gerrit Cole Swap

By Jeff Todd | January 15, 2018 at 8:25am CDT

Gerrit Cole is a highly visible player — a former first overall pick who landed fourth in the National League Cy Young vote in 2015 — so it’s natural there will be strong opinions about the return he drew in the recent swap between the Pirates and Astros. We have already seen a variety of industry opinions pour in (see here, here, here, and here), but I thought it’d be worth taking the temperature of the MLBTR readership.

There’s little reason to full describe the elements of the agreement. (MLBTR’s Conny Byrne discussed all relevant elements in detail in his post on the Cole trade.) But here’s a brief account for purposes of facilitating today’s poll:

Astros receive:

  • 2 years of control over SP Gerrit Cole ($6.75MM for 2018; arbitration for 2019) — following aforementioned 2015 season, Cole was limited by injury in 2016 and pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in a healthy 2017 season

Pirates receive:

  • 4 years of control over RP Michael Feliz — carries 5.13 ERA (allowing 1.5 HR/9) through 121 MLB innings, but has averaged 12.8 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9
  • 5 years of control over SP/RP Joe Musgrove — former first-round pick has been tagged for a .288/.339/.506 slash and 5.37 ERA over 25 MLB starts, but worked to a 1.26 ERA with 39:6 K/BB ratio in 35 2/3 innings last year after moving to the bullpen
  • 6 years of control over 3B Colin Moran — former sixth overall draft pick slashed .308/.373/.543 with 18 home runs in 338 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, but has yet to receive significant time in the majors
  • 6 years of control over OF Jason Martin — 22-year-old reached Double-A for first time in 2017, slashing .273/.319/.483 with 11 home runs in 320 plate appearances

Since there are two teams involved with their own set of needs, we’ll ask for grades from each organization’s perspective. For Pittsburgh, clearly, the move was designed to add multiple assets that can deliver value over a longer time frame. If even one of these players really succeeds, it could end up standing as a win. Also of note: the Bucs are said to have passed up a chance at gaining one higher-grade prospect (Clint Frazier of the Yankees) in order to add several contributors.

(Poll link for app users.)

Grade the Pirates' Trade of Gerrit Cole
C 33.24% (7,115 votes)
B 29.31% (6,274 votes)
D 19.00% (4,067 votes)
F 9.52% (2,038 votes)
A 8.93% (1,912 votes)
Total Votes: 21,406

On the Houston side, it’s all the more clear. The team resisted parting with its own blue-chip prospects, but gave a variety of useful pieces up to acquire just two seasons of Cole. If one views him as even a quality and durable mid-rotation starter, and does not think the assets parted with will come back to haunt the ’Stros, then this could be seen as a bargain. On the other hand, there are some questions surrounding Cole and it is not difficult to imagine one or more of the more controllable assets sent to Pittsburgh delivering greater value than will Cole’s final two arb years.

(Poll link for app users.)

Grade the Astros' Acquisition of Gerrit Cole
A 51.42% (9,850 votes)
B 36.50% (6,991 votes)
C 8.94% (1,713 votes)
D 1.90% (363 votes)
F 1.24% (238 votes)
Total Votes: 19,155
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Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates

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Quick Hits: Yanks, Pirates, C. Frazier, BoSox, JBJ, Kinsler

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2018 at 11:55pm CDT

The Yankees were reportedly willing to part with outfield prospect Clint Frazier in a trade for then-Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole earlier this offseason, but no deal come together between the teams. Although Pittsburgh ended up trading Cole to Houston on Saturday for a four-player package, the Pirates valued Frazier over everyone they got back from the Astros, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic. However, the Pirates liked the package they got from the Astros better than the offers the Yankees made, including a final pitch from the Bombers that consisted of three prospects, per Bowden (Twitter link).

More from around the game…

  • While Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. has been popular in trade rumors this offseason, they’re not going to deal him, Peter Gammons of The Athletic writes (subscription required/highly recommended). Boston’s front office regards Bradley as one of the team’s most important players, as it places great value on his “elite” defense and leadership, Gammons details.
  • When the Angels agreed to acquire Ian Kinsler from the Tigers in December, the second baseman had the Halos on his 10-team no-trade list. Kinsler explained to Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required/highly recommended) that it was “because of tax reasons.” He also pointed out that taxes led him to put the other California teams and both New York clubs on his no-trade list. Kinsler still waived his NTC for the Angels, though, thanks in part to the presence of good friend and teammate Justin Upton (whom he played with in Detroit). Kinsler revealed that the Halos were the only one of the 10 clubs for which he’d have waived his limited no-trade rights. His interview with Strang is worth checking out in full, as it includes Kinsler’s thoughts on prospects, new teammates Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, and the Tigers, among other subjects.
  • There are “ongoing” talks regarding pace of play between MLB and the MLBPA, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). Commissioner Rob Manfred sent the players a formal proposal to consider, Rosenthal adds. The two sides met on Thursday, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. While Olney regards their dialogue as a positive sign, he notes that MLB has the ability to impose whichever rules it wants, thus giving it all the leverage in negotiations. So, even if talks aren’t constructive, Olney at least expects the league to implement a 20-second pitch clock and limit mound meetings in 2018.
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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates Clint Frazier Ian Kinsler Jackie Bradley Jr.

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Brewers Sign Ji-Man Choi To Minor League Deal

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2018 at 10:55pm CDT

The Brewers have signed first baseman/outfielder Ji-Man Choi to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, his agency announced (via Naver Sports; h/t: Sung Min Kim of River Ave Blues, on Twitter). Choi’s deal comes with an $850K salary if he makes the Brewers’ roster and a chance to earn $650K more in incentives.

To this point, the 26-year-old Choi hasn’t done much in the majors, having batted .181/.279/.386 in 147 plate appearances. While Choi struggled across 129 PAs as an Angel in 2016, he was terrific over a much smaller sample with the Yankees last year, when he slashed .267/.333/.733 in 18 trips to the plate. The lefty-swinger spent the majority of the season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate and hit a robust .288/.373/.538 in 338 PAs.

On the heels of Choi’s strong showing in 2017, the Yankees were among a slew of clubs that offered him a contract. He’ll instead head to Milwaukee to vie for a big league role, though a path to immediate playing time at his positions isn’t evident. The Brewers have Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar at first base, Choi’s primary spot, and they’re loaded with outfielders.

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Milwaukee Brewers Transactions Ji-Man Choi

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NL Notes: Giants, L. Cain, Pirates, Musgrove, Cards, Ozuna

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2018 at 9:35pm CDT

The Giants aren’t dead set against signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, general manager Bobby Evans said this week (via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Ideally, Evans would rather not sign a player attached to draft pick compensation, though he “all but said” that the Giants are “talking to” center fielder and QO recipient Lorenzo Cain, Schulman reports. In adding Cain, who’s likely to ink one of this winter’s biggest contracts, the Giants would lose two 2018 draft picks (their second- and fifth-highest selections) and $1MM of international bonus pool space.

More from the National League…

  • The four-player return the Pirates got from the Astros for right-hander Gerrit Cole is “brutal,” one evaluator told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The evaluator believes that righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz have value as relievers, but he regards third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin as “throw-in types.” Meanwhile, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke to an evaluator who sees Musgrove as a potential No. 4 starter. (Twitter link.) However, the evaluator wonders if the 25-year-old is better suited to come out of the bullpen – something he did with great success in 2017. Musgrove, for his part, expects to start in Pittsburgh. Speaking with Mark Berman of Fox 26 about Saturday’s trade, Musgrove said: “Over the past 12 hours I’ve become more clear-minded about what’s happening here. I think it’s a good move for me. It’s a chance to go to an organization and get back in the rotation and try to help them build something special. Anytime I’m traded for a guy like Gerrit Cole, they’ve got big plans for me, and I plan on filling those big shoes” (Twitter links here).
  • Cardinals president John Mozeliak informed the Associated Press and other media this weekend that they’re continuing to “explore” ways to improve, though he’s confident in their current roster. Mozeliak is “hesitant” to surrender prospects for players who are low on team control, the AP writes. The Cards did make that type of trade last month, though, acquiring outfielder Marcell Ozuna’s two years of control from Miami in exchange for four prospects. Ozuna discussed his reaction to the deal this weekend, telling Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com and other reporters: “The first thing I heard [was] they were going to trade me to the Oakland A’s. I said, ’God, please, leave me over here.’ Then I heard they traded me to the Cardinals, and I said, ’OK, thanks.'”
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Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Colin Moran Joe Musgrove Lorenzo Cain Marcell Ozuna Michael Feliz

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Looking For A Match In A Starlin Castro Trade

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2018 at 7:48pm CDT

Middle infielder Starlin Castro has collected four All-Star appearances, 1,280 hits and a rich contract since he made his major league debut in 2010. It’s fair to say Castro has lived pretty well during his big league tenure, then, though team success has been difficult to come by for the 27-year-old.

Starlin Castro

Castro spent the first six years of his career with the Cubs, who only went to the playoffs once during that span. That season, 2015, proved to be Castro’s last in Chicago, which traded him to the Yankees during the ensuing winter. Less than a year later, Wrigleyville celebrated its first World Series title in 108 years.

The Yankees didn’t qualify for the playoffs in Castro’s first year in the Bronx, but they bounced back to play deep into October last season and take the eventual champion Astros to seven games in the ALCS. That looked like the beginning of what could be a long run of success for the talent-packed Yankees, but it was also the end of Castro’s run with them.

Not only did the Yankees trade Castro after the season, dealing him and two prospects to the Marlins for 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, but they sent him to a team that hasn’t won in years and won’t in the near future. The Stanton trade was primarily a payroll-cutting move by Miami, which later shipped fellow star outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals. Now in the early stages of an extensive rebuild, the Marlins’ already lengthy playoff drought (14 years) is likely to drag on for at least a few more seasons.

Castro, having had his fill of losing, would reportedly like to leave the Marlins before ever taking the field as a member of the franchise. With a guaranteed $22MM left on his contract through 2019, his only hope of escaping the Marlins in the near term is via trade. It’s unclear whether the Marlins are interested in dealing him, but it stands to reason they’re open to it, given that slashing costs seems to be the main motivation of neophyte owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter right now.

The trouble is that obvious fits for Castro, a longtime shortstop who lined up exclusively at second base as a Yankee, are hard to find. His All-Star nods notwithstanding, Castro has been more of an average player than a high-impact one in the majors, having slashed .282/.320/.413 (97 wRC+, 98 OPS+) and totaled 14.2 fWAR/13.5 rWAR across 4,847 plate appearances. His contract offers little to no surplus value, then, and there simply isn’t much league-wide demand right now at either short or second (where similarly valuable players in Eduardo Nunez and Neil Walker are still free agents).

Signs seem to point to Castro opening 2018 with the Marlins, but we’ll run it down team by team and try to find an ideal club for him, beginning with last year’s playoff qualifiers:

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Astros – Five words: Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.

Cubs – With Addison Reed, Javier Baez, Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist in the fold, a Castro-Cubs reunion isn’t happening.

Diamondbacks – Castro would be the most proven middle infielder on the Diamondbacks’ roster, but they still have enough acceptable options with potential breakout player Ketel Marte, Brandon Drury, Chris Owings and Daniel Descalso on hand. The D-backs have pushed to acquire shortstop Manny Machado from the Orioles this winter, though he’s a transcendent player who’d greatly improve their chances of returning to the playoffs in 2018. Castro isn’t in that class.

Dodgers – The great Corey Seager occupies short, but the Dodgers could do better than Logan Forsythe at second. Castro’s hardly a slam-dunk upgrade over Forsythe, though, and his salary would be problematic for a Dodgers team trying to stay under the $197MM competitive balance tax figure.

Indians – The Tribe’s not in position to pick up Castro’s money, nor does it need to, with Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez as its primary second base options and Francisco Lindor at short.

Red Sox – Boston has also shown interest in acquiring Machado, but he’s more of a luxury than a necessity for the back-to-back AL East champs. The Red Sox are fine at shortstop with Xander Bogaerts, after all. They could perhaps use a second baseman to fill in for Dustin Pedroia, whose offseason knee surgery will keep him on the shelf for some of 2018. Castro doesn’t make sense for the BoSox, however, as a healthy Pedroia will relegate his replacement to the bench or a utility role.

Nationals – Few teams are in better shape up the middle than the Nationals, who boast Daniel Murphy at second and Trea Turner at short.

Rockies – There’s nothing to suggest the Rox are dissatisfied with the cost-effective duo of second baseman D.J. LeMahieu and shortstop Trevor Story.

Twins – Minnesota has a much better second baseman than Castro in Brian Dozier. Elsewhere, the Twins aren’t going to move 24-year-old Jorge Polanco off shortstop for Castro – who hasn’t played the position since 2015.

Yankees – Over a month since acquiring Stanton, the Yankees still haven’t replaced Castro with an established second baseman to complement shortstop Didi Gregorius. Whether they’re all that interested in doing so is unclear, given the presence of elite prospect Gleyber Torres. Even if the Yankees don’t think the 21-year-old Torres is quite ready, and even if they like Castro enough to attempt to re-acquire him, financial concerns could stand in the way. The Bombers parted with Castro to help balance out money in the Stanton trade and keep them under the $197MM tax number in 2018. Staying south of that figure continues to be one of the Yankees’ driving forces, so the Marlins would likely have to swallow some of Castro’s money in a trade to make a reunion possible.

As for non-playoff teams from 2017 that may hope to contend this year. . .

Angels – The Halos already traded for veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler this winter, and they have all-world shortstop Andrelton Simmons.

Athletics – The A’s have been open to trading second baseman Jed Lowrie this offseason, though dealing him just to turn around and get Castro wouldn’t seem to make sense. Rather, a Lowrie trade would likely open the door for a Franklin Barreto–Marcus Semien double-play tandem.

Blue Jays – On paper, Castro may have been a fit for Toronto at the outset of the offseason. However, the Jays have since addressed their middle infield by acquiring Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte – two players capable of holding the reins if injury issues once again beset Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis.

Braves – The presences of middle-infield building blocks Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson rule out a Castro acquisition.

Brewers – There might be a match here. The Brewers do have second base-capable veterans in Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard and Hernan Perez, but only Sogard had a decent 2017 at the plate. Although, if the Brewers do pick up another vet for the keystone, they could opt to re-sign Walker – who thrived with them late last season after coming over in a trade – instead of swinging a trade for Castro.

Cardinals – If the Cards are going to trade for an infielder this winter, it’s likely to be a corner player who provides an impact bat. That’s not Castro, who wouldn’t be a clear upgrade over second baseman Kolten Wong or shortstop Paul DeJong.

Giants – San Francisco’s another team without a need in the middle infield, where it starts Joe Panik (second) and Brandon Crawford (short).

Mariners – Unless trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto acquires Castro to play the corner outfield (you never know), he won’t end up in Seattle. The Mariners are set all across the infield.

Mets – As with the Brewers, the Mets are prospective contenders who could stand to improve their situation at second. While New York has been in the market for aid at the position this offseason, multiple reports have suggested it has no interest in Castro.

Orioles – The O’s are in enviable shape at second with Jonathan Schoop, and they’ll go with Machado (if he’s still on their roster) or Tim Beckham at short.

Phillies – Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez has been an oft-speculated trade candidate for a couple years. He’s superior to Castro, though, and even if the Phillies do move Hernandez, they’d likely replace him with prospect Scott Kingery. At short, they’ve given the keys to J.P. Crawford.

Rangers – There won’t be a Castro pickup for the Rangers, who have the well-compensated tandem of Rougned Odor (second) and Elvis Andrus (short) in starting roles.

Rays – Castro may well be better than all of the Rays’ current middle infielders, Adeiny Hechavarria, Brad Miller, Matt Duffy and Joey Wendle. The problem is that Tampa Bay is aiming to reduce payroll, which makes a Castro acquisition look highly unlikely. They also have one of the premier middle infield prospects in baseball, shortstop Willy Adames, nearing the majors.

Beyond the aforementioned clubs, we’re left with the Royals, Tigers, White Sox, Padres, Reds and Pirates. Like Miami, both Kansas City and Detroit look to be in the early stages of a rebuild, which should stamp out any potential of a Castro pickup. The AL Central rival White Sox don’t figure to contend in 2018 either, and they’re certainly not going to displace either of second baseman Yoan Moncada or shortstop Tim Anderson. The Padres also have no shortage of big league middle infielders, even after trading away Solarte, with Cory Spangenberg, Carlos Asuaje and the recently acquired Freddy Galvis in the mix. The same goes for the Reds (Scooter Gennett, Jose Peraza, Dilson Herrera and Nick Senzel). The Pirates, whose Gerrit Cole trade on Saturday may signal the start of a rebuild, have plenty of options themselves (Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Adam Frazier and Sean Rodriguez). They could trade Harrison, but they wouldn’t do so in order to make room for the similarly expensive Castro.

Unfortunately for Castro, this doesn’t appear to be the right time for a roughly average second baseman who’s not cheap to push for a trade to a contending club. Teams like the Yankees, Brewers and Mets could certainly improve their second base situations by Opening Day, though none are clean fits for Castro. As such, he may have to at least begin the season in Miami, where a strong few months could potentially boost his trade value and lead to a deal by the summertime.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Looking For A Match In A Trade MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Starlin Castro

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Yelich, Yu, Cole, Bucs, Moustakas, Cards

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2018 at 6:22pm CDT

This week in baseball blogs…

  • Fish Stripes explores a potential Marlins-Braves trade involving Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto.
  • Everything Bluebirds ponders whether the Blue Jays should give up a haul for Yelich.
  • Chin Music Baseball ranks Yu Darvish’s top five potential landing spots.
  • Pirates Breakdown wonders how effective the Bucs’ rotation will be without Gerrit Cole.
  • STL Hat Trick argues that the Cardinals should steer clear of Mike Moustakas.
  • The Point of Pittsburgh has developed an algorithm to incorporate minor league stats for hitters and pitchers onto the 20-80 scouting scale.
  • Good Fundies and Mets Daddy respond to the team’s reunion with Jay Bruce.
  • Camden Depot looks at a potential contract extension for Jonathan Schoop.
  • FSH Baseball has high hopes for new Mariners center fielder Dee Gordon.
  • The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2, 3) opines that the Yankees shouldn’t sign Darvish, reacts to the Twins’ hiring of Justin Morneau as a special assistant, and profiles Astros prospect J.J. Matijevic.
  • Medium sees Jonathan Lucroy as a worthwhile target for the Blue Jays.
  • The Giants Cove is impressed with the Padres’ hiring of longtime FanGraphs guru Dave Cameron.
  • Bronx To Bushville explains why the Brewers’ quiet offseason could pay off later.
  • The Sports Tank isn’t thrilled with the offseason the Red Sox are having.
  • East Village Times highlights the best and worst of the A.J. Preller era in San Diego.
  • The Loop Sports would like to see the Cubs give Mike Montgomery a real chance to start.
  • Blue Jays Beat takes an in-depth look at the newest member of the team, Yangervis Solarte.
  • District On Deck names five Scott Boras clients to watch for the Nationals.
  • Off The Bench regards A’s first baseman Matt Olson as the game’s least predictable player.
  • Call to the Pen focuses on the Phillies’ pitching plans.
  • Pinstriped Prospects recaps the Yankees’ offseason to this point and writes about some potential moves they could still make.
  • 216Stitches believes MLB teams could hurt themselves by slow playing the market.
  • Believeland Ball finds the perfect everyday lineup for the Cleveland Indians in 2018.
  • Rox Pile hopes Rockies first base prospect Ryan McMahon bursts on the scene in Cody Bellinger-esque fashion.
  • Jays From the Couch remains bullish on Devon Travis.
  • The K Zone chats with Brewers pitching prospect Corbin Burnes.
  • Real McCoy Minor News profiles Indians prospects Logan Ice and Triston McKenzie.
  • Notes from the Sally previews the 2018 Delmarva Shorebirds, the Orioles’ South Atlantic League affiliates.
  • Clubhouse Corner’s Bernie Pleskoff offers his Arizona Spring Training Guide.
  • BP Toronto encourages Blue Jays fans to embrace the uncertainty of the offseason.
  • DiNardo’s Dugout answers listeners’ questions via Facebook Live and discusses the Bruce signing.
  • Nyrdcast shares its updated MLB Prospect Ranking Tracker.
  • NY Yankees Digest examines the club’s chances of making the playoffs and winning the World Series in 2018.
  • Jays Journal lists five under-the-radar Toronto prospects to watch in 2018.
  • Rotisserie Duck uses defense-independent pitching statistics to evaluate several hurlers.
  • Dodgers Way has an idea on how the franchise could honor a pair of its Hall of Famers.

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In

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Poll: Which Team Will Sign Yu Darvish?

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2018 at 4:14pm CDT

Two-plus months into what has been an abnormal MLB offseason, right-hander Yu Darvish remains one of several high-profile players without a contract. In general, the open market hasn’t been kind to rotation pieces this winter, as righty Tyler Chatwood’s fairly modest deal with the Cubs (three years, $38MM) ranks as the largest guarantee given to a starter thus far. He signed that pact Dec. 7, and it seemed unthinkable then that every one of the elite free agent starters – Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn – would still be available over a month later. And yet, all are without teams on Jan. 14.

Yu Darvish

Darvish is likely the best of the bunch, someone MLBTR predicted would land a six-year, $160MM contract entering the offseason, and has drawn the most headlines of the group this winter. Earlier this week, the 31-year-old top-of-the-rotation arm was reportedly deciding among six teams – the Rangers and Dodgers (his two previous employers) as well as the Yankees, Twins, Cubs and Astros. Houston is probably out of the race after acquiring righty Gerrit Cole from the Pirates on Saturday, thus giving the reigning World Series champions yet another quality starter in a rotation packed with them.

The Yankees and Twins were also among teams with interest in Cole this offseason, though the former isn’t necessarily in dire need of help in their rotation. With Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery comprising the Yankees’ starting quintet, general manager Brian Cashman likely doesn’t feel an urgency to splurge on anyone via free agency or trade. The Yankees don’t seem to be in position to reel in Darvish anyway, of course, as their goal of staying under the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold in 2018 looks like a major roadblock in this situation. Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) estimates that the Yankees have already committed around $167MM to 15 players, which makes a Darvish signing a long shot even if he inks a deal for significantly less than our roughly $27MM-per-year forecast. In an ideal world for the Yankees, they’d be able to dump a sizable portion of reserve outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury’s $68.4MM on someone to create spending room, but that’s a tall order.

Unlike the Yankees, both the Twins and Rangers clearly need to bolster their rotations prior to the upcoming season. Minnesota managed its first playoff berth since 2010 last year, but it did so with little in the way of answers beyond Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios in its starting staff. And now, with no money on the books past the 2019 season, the small-market Twins are in position to make a splash. Their front office also happens to include GM Thad Levine, who was with Darvish in Texas from 2012-16.

Darvish still has an affinity for the Rangers, with whom he has spent nearly all of his career, but they don’t seem to have the payroll wiggle room to make a reunion happen. Moreover, the Rangers may be the weakest of the teams pursuing Darvish, considering they won 78 games last year while the others made the playoffs. Still, as one of the clubs remaining in the race for Darvish’s services, we shouldn’t dismiss the Rangers outright. Needless to say, Darvish would be a far more exciting addition than Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore, all of whom have joined the Rangers’ still-shaky rotation this winter.

Shifting to the National League, the Cubs seem bent on reeling in another established starter – whether it’s Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb or a trade piece (Chris Archer?) – to join Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood. The fact that Chicago has the financial means and desire to upgrade its rotation in a notable way could make the team the favorite for Darvish on paper. The Dodgers have also been known for their financial might, but like the Yankees, tax concerns have helped shape their winter thus far. It has been a quiet couple months for the reigning NL champs, whose only impact newcomers are inexpensive relievers. The Dodgers have committed approximately $186MM to their 2018 roster, per Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource, making a Darvish reunion hard to envision.

Based on everything we know, the Twins and Cubs may be the best bets to win the Darvish derby. However, we’re still not going to rule out any of the other reported suitors or a mystery team from nabbing him. Where do you expect him to pitch in 2018?

(Poll link for App users)

Who Will Sign Yu Darvish?
Cubs 26.12% (7,483 votes)
Yankees 18.73% (5,366 votes)
Twins 17.67% (5,062 votes)
Someone else 15.95% (4,571 votes)
Rangers 12.91% (3,698 votes)
Dodgers 8.63% (2,474 votes)
Total Votes: 28,654

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Yu Darvish

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Quick Hits: Nationals, Atkins, Donaldson, Giants

By Mark Polishuk | January 14, 2018 at 2:21pm CDT

The competitive balance tax has been a significant offseason storyline, most notably in regards to big-market teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Giants are all looking to stay under the threshold this winter in order to reset their tax costs and further position them for bigger spending next offseason and beyond.  While much has been made about the value of avoiding the tax, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman notes that the actual financial cost is pretty minimal for teams (like the Nationals) who barely exceed the threshold.  For instance, the Nats’ current $199.2MM payroll puts them $2.2MM over the tax line, putting D.C. in line for a 30% tax on the overage since this would be the club’s second straight year over the threshold.  Since only the overage is taxed, however, the Nationals would only be paying an extra $660K.  Zuckerman figures that a contending team like Washington shouldn’t have any issue in paying a bit extra tax money in order to acquire a pricey trade addition during the season, especially if that player ends up helping the Nats finally enjoy some postseason success.

Some more from around the baseball world…

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins declined to say whether or not the team discussed a long-term deal with Josh Donaldson before the two sides settled on Donaldson’s 2018 contract, Atkins told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters.  Both the third baseman and the team have been quiet about what extension talks (if any) have taken place, which has only led to trade speculation as Donaldson enters the last year of his deal.  Toronto aims to contend this season, however, so it doesn’t seem like a Donaldson trade would happen until the July deadline, if at all.  The two sides already collaborated on one tricky negotiation — the $23MM Donaldson will earn in 2018, a single-year record for an arbitration-eligible player.  Davidi’s piece also contains quotes from Atkins on the Blue Jays’ other arbitration cases, plus Davidi’s estimation that the team has roughly $20MM left in payroll space to spend on further upgrades.
  • In his latest Insider-only piece, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney opines that the Giants’ desire to avoid giving up draft picks to sign qualifying offer-rejecting free agents may be short-sighted.  San Francisco’s veteran-heavy roster is built to win now, and signing the likes of a Lorenzo Cain would do wonders for the troubled Giants outfield, adding more immediate help than the theoretical value of the second-round pick the club would have be surrendering in order to sign Cain.
  • Also from Olney, he hears from front office executives that teams aren’t willing to overpay for the nebulous idea of clubhouse leadership.  While every club hopes to add players with good attitudes in general, one exec notes that “leadership is organic within each group of players,” and often dependent on a specific mix of personalities.  “A player might have a reputation for being a leader, but if he gets hurt or doesn’t play well, that disappears,” another executive said.
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