Mark Trumbo Will Reject Qualifying Offer
“Indications are” that Orioles slugger Mark Trumbo will reject his qualifying offer, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, and Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets a similar sentiment, calling the market for Trumbo “bustling” and adding that he can be “cross[ed] off the list of players who might be inclined to accept a qualifying offer.” SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets more definitively that Trumbo will reject. After leading the Majors with 47 home runs, Trumbo has never seemed to be an especially likely candidate to accept the qualifying offer. Some teams, undoubtedly, will be scared off by his fairly one-dimensional nature, but power is always an in-demand commodity even in spite of the league-wide increase in home runs in 2016.
Trumbo, 31 in January, hit .256/.316/.533 in 667 plate appearances this past season, adding 27 doubles and a triple to his MLB-leading home run total. However, Baltimore deployed Trumbo as its primary right fielder, and while he has plenty of corner outfield experience from his days with the D-backs, the results have never been pretty, as one might expect for a player that is listed at 6’4″ and 235 pounds. In 791 outfield innings this year (all but eight of which came in right field), Trumbo graded out to 7.7 runs below average, per Ultimate Zone Rating, and an even less-flattering 11 below average, per Defensive Runs Saved. He also walked at a slightly below-average 7.6 percent and struck out in 25.5 percent of his plate appearances, hence the middle batting average and on-base percentage.
All of that said, Trumbo’s bat should still get him paid fairly handsomely. He’s topped 30 homers three times in his career to date (and fell one big fly shy of that mark in 2011), and while he’s never been a great defensive outfielder, he’s received solid marks at first base when playing there in the past. Trumbo’s presence on teams that have had established first basemen — Albert Pujols with the Angels, Paul Goldschmidt with the D-backs and Chris Davis with the Orioles — has forced him to the outfield grass with regularity (as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently noted in Trumbo’s free agent profile), but could be a nice fit on a team with a vacancy at first base and/or designated hitter.
MLBTR ranked Trumbo eighth on our top 50 free agent list and projected a four-year, $60MM contract for the 2016 home run king. The Orioles have expressed interest in retaining Trumbo, though GM Dan Duquette did caution that he wasn’t sure they’d be able to afford him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista To Reject Qualifying Offers
9:49am: Edwin Encarnacion, too, is rejecting his QO, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. That was among the most obvious calls in the entire class (or in any class of QO players). On the heels of a .263/.357/.529 batting line and 42 homers — his fifth straight season with at least 34 round-trippers — Encarnacion figures to cash on a substantial four-year pact and has a chance at a five-year deal worth in excess of $100MM. If both Encarnacion and Bautista sign elsewhere, the Jays will net a pair of compensatory picks in next year’s draft.
8:46am: Blue Jays right fielder/DH Jose Bautista will decline Toronto’s one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer before today’s 5pm ET deadline, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. That decision has long been viewed as likely even on the heels of a disappointing and injury-filled season for the 36-year-old slugger. In light of Bautista’s decision, the Jays will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round if he signs elsewhere.
Bautista spent roughly six weeks of the 2016 season on the disabled list due to a toe injury and a knee sprain. When healthy, the two-time MLB home run leader (2010, 2011) batted just .234, though his .366 on-base percentage, .452 slugging percentage and .217 isolated power mark were all considerably above the league average. Bautista walked at nearly a 17 percent clip and struck out in just a shade under 20 percent of his plate appearances, and he finished the year on the upswing, hitting .262/.401/.469 in 162 plate appearances after being activated from his second stint on the DL.
The most significant questions surrounding Bautista are his age and his defense in right field. Having just turned 36 in October, a significant multi-year deal would carry him into at least his age-38 season. While that’s certainly not unheard of — Carlos Beltran, for instance, just played out a three-year, $45MM deal that spanned his age-37 through age-39 seasons — there will certainly be teams that are wary about committing to such pacts for a player that’s closer to 40 than to 30. Beyond that, his defense has rated out quite poorly in each of the past two seasons; Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at 15.5 runs below average over his past 1825 innings in right field, while Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 in that same time frame.
Those factors will likely scare away numerous National League clubs, although since formally receiving the qualifying offer, Bautista has already drawn some level of interest from the Mets. He’s also been loosely linked to both the Red Sox and Yankees, and it stands to reason that other American League teams will at least kick the tires on Bautista, who has hit more home runs than anyone in baseball dating back to the 2010 season. The Blue Jays may yet express interest in retaining Bautista, although their three-year deal with Kendrys Morales, signed last Friday, certainly makes him a bit of a tougher fit on Toronto’s roster.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yoenis Cespedes To Reject Qualifying Offer
Yoenis Cespedes will reject his qualifying offer from the Mets, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Most of the qualifying offer decisions are no-brainers, but Cespedes’ decision was the easiest to foresee of them all, as the slugger had already opted out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his contract. His rejection is a pure formality and will allow the Mets to cash in on a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round of the 2017 draft in the event that he signs with a new team.
Cespedes, 31, signed a three-year, $75MM contract with the Mets last winter that guaranteed him $27.5MM in 2016 and contained an opt-out clause following year one of the deal. It was obvious all along that barring a catastrophic injury or a sudden and unexpected massive decline in performance, Cespedes would be opting out of the deal in search of a larger contract. Unlike last year when he had to compete with the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon on the market for corner outfielders, Cespedes is the top outfielder available this winter and quite arguably the top overall free agent on the market. He ranked first on MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents, where he’s projected to land a $125MM commitment over five years (although it’s certainly plausible that his market pushes him to a six-year deal as well).
A balky right quadriceps muscle limited Cespedes to 132 games this season, but he was outstanding when healthy enough to take the field and even surpassed his 2015 performance in many ways. Cespedes hit .280/.354/.530 and belted 31 homers this year, coming just four long balls shy of his 2015 total despite tallying 133 fewer plate appearances. He was miscast as a center fielder for much of the season and drew negative Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved marks there, but his defense in left field remained above average even in spite of his quad injury. And on top of that, his walk rate soared from 4.9 percent in 2015 to a career-best 9.4 percent in 2016 — a positive sign that should alleviate some concerns about his ability to consistently post a respectable on-base percentage.
Cespedes, of course, was one of two Mets to receive the qualifying offer. The other, Neil Walker, has a considerably murkier case coming off of season-ending back surgery that was performed in late September. From my vantage point, Walker is the lone free agent that has a reasonable chance of accepting the QO, though there’s no definitive word on whether he’ll do so or test the free agent market. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News tweets that the Mets are hoping Walker accepts the deal and returns on a one-year commitment for the 2017 season. He’d be used all around the infield in that scenario, per Martino, indicating that he’d be a backup option to Lucas Duda at first base and David Wright at the hot corner.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Blue Jays Reportedly Make Three-Year Offer To Brett Cecil
The Blue Jays have made a three-year offer to Brett Cecil in an effort to retain the free-agent left-hander, reports Sportsnet’s Jamie Campbell (via Twitter). The average annual value of the offer isn’t known at this time.
Cecil, 30, posted an abnormally high 3.93 ERA in 2016 but turned in excellent strikeout-to-walk numbers, averaging 11 strikeouts and just two walks per nine innings pitched. The primary factor behind his uncharacteristic ERA spike was a spike in his homer-to-flyball rate; Cecil saw 11.6 percent of the fly-balls against him turn into home runs from 2009-15, but that rate jumped to 20.8 percent in 2016. Homer-to-flyball rate is prone to year-to-year fluctuations, however, and it’s never been a significant problem for Cecil before, who has somewhat quietly dominated over the past four seasons, posting a 2.90 ERA with 11.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 50.2 percent ground-ball rate in 205 innings for the Jays. He’s held both left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters in check over that time as well, so he shouldn’t be limited to a specialist role like many southpaw relievers.
Outside of Aroldis Chapman, Cecil is very arguably the top free-agent lefty on the market. He ranked 26th on MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents, where he was projected to land a three-year, $18MM pact. Cecil already been connected to the Mariners in the past week and figures to draw widespread interest, as nearly every team in the league is looking for bullpen pieces early in the offseason, and the supply of quality left-handed arms is slimmer than the supply of quality right-handers. As it stands, Aaron Loup, Chad Girodo and Matt Dermody are the only left-handed relievers on Toronto’s 40-man roster, so their need to add some left-handed stability to the bullpen is evident.
Ian Desmond To Reject Qualifying Offer
Rangers outfielder Ian Desmond will reject his one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer, per reports from FanRag’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). As Sherman notes, Desmond figures to be in considerably more demand this time around than he was after rejecting the QO last winter.
Last year’s decision seemed logical at the time but ultimately proved to be a misstep, as Desmond settled for a one-year, $8MM deal with the Rangers that required him to switch positions. While that was certainly a disappointing outcome, it may have been a blessing in disguise, as Desmond showed well in the outfield and enjoyed a considerably stronger year at the plate in 2016, prompting him for a larger payday than he’d have otherwise received on a more modest multi-year commitment last winter. In 156 games with the Rangers, Desmond hit .285/.335/.446 with 22 homers and 21 stolen bases while playing above-average defense in left field and passable, albeit below-average defense in center. Considering that the 2016 season marked his first professional exposure to both positions, it’s perhaps not surprising that Desmond struggled in center. He could conceivably improve there if asked to reprise his role as a center fielder, though, now that he has more experience under his belt. And it’s certainly possible that he returns to the infield as well, or at the very least operates as a hybrid infielder/outfielder and moves around the diamond with regularity, as Ben Zobrist and others have done in recent years.
Desmond, though, isn’t without his red flags. He did slump to finish out the year, falling off the table with a .249/.297/.305 batting line over his final 229 plate appearances. Strikeouts have also long been an issue for Desmond, and though he improved in that regard in 2016, his 23.6 percent strikeout rate was still three percent worse than the league average, while his 6.5 percent walk rate was about two percent below average.
It seems likely that with the Rangers set to lose both Desmond and Carlos Gomez to free agency, they’ll at least talk to Desmond’s new representatives at CAA about a reunion, and if he elects to sign elsewhere, Texas will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round of the 2017 draft. To this point, the Orioles have already been rumored to have interest in Desmond, though comments from GM Dan Duquette call into question whether Desmond will fit into Baltimore’s price range. MLBTR ranked Desmond ninth on our Top 50 free agent list and pegged him for a four-year, $60MM pact on the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Ross, D’Backs, Black, Int’l Draft, Cubs
David Ross‘ pursuit of another World Series ring in his final season was one of the many great subplots of the Cubs‘ championship run, and now the veteran catcher is adjusting to retirement, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes. “There hasn’t been a big lull for me. I ended it the best way I could,” Ross said. “It’s a storybook and a dream. I was saying to my wife, ‘This offseason’ — and she said, ‘It’s no more the offseason; this is life.’” The widely-respected Ross has often been cited as a future manager or coach, and while he’ll be meeting with Theo Epstein after Thanksgiving to discuss a possible future role with the team, Ross is looking forward to more well-deserved time with his family. Here’s some more from around the majors as we start a new week…
- The Diamondbacks won’t face any payroll limitations in Mike Hazen’s first offseason as the team’s general manager, club president/CEO Derrick Hall tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. “It’ll become a challenge in the future,” Hall said. “We can’t have too many high-priced players on the roster at the same time in this market. You just can’t. At some point we’re going to have difficult decisions to make. But this year it’s not critical. That’s a good spot to be in as a new GM. (Hazen is) not looking at what he has committed and looking at having to move pieces to bring in others. It gives him time to breathe and look and make his own assessments.” While Hazen may not be required to make big payroll cuts, however, he may not have much spending room available if the D’Backs aren’t raising payroll.
- New Rockies manager Bud Black is certain that he can avoid the clash of personalities that soured the relationship between GM Jeff Bridich and former manager Walt Weiss, Jeff Saunders of the Denver Post writes. Black’s ability to communicate and learn throughout every stage of his playing and post-playing career is illustrated in this piece from MLB.com’s Thomas Harding, who explores some of the many relationships Black has made throughout his many decades in baseball.
- Commissioner Rob Manfred has stated that competitive balance and transparency are the league’s priorities in pushing for an international talent draft, though Baseball America’s Ben Badler feels neither of these issues will be helped (and in fact could be worsened) by further limiting contracts for international players within a draft framework. The league’s real priority, Badler argues, is limiting the amount of bonus money given to international players.
- How can the Cubs best position themselves for a repeat in 2017? MLB.com’s Phil Rogers has a few suggestions, including re-signing Dexter Fowler, acquiring Sean Doolittle (if healthy) from the A’s, and packaging some of the club’s top prospects together to trade for a front-of-the-rotation starter.
No “Substantive” Extension Talks Between Mets, Neil Walker
The Mets and second baseman Neil Walker have yet to engage “in any substantive discussions” about a multi-year extension that would keep Walker off the free agent market, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. The next step between the two sides seems to be tomorrow’s deadline (at 4pm CT) for players who have been issued qualifying offers to decide whether to accept or reject the one-year, $17.2MM offer.
Walker is one of ten players to receive QOs this offseason, and seemingly the only one who may yet accept his deal. In late August, Walker underwent season-ending back surgery to repair a herniated disk, a procedure that will keep him from resuming baseball activities until around the middle of December. Walker’s surgery wasn’t considered to be particularly dangerous nor were his chances at a full recovery in any way limited — the fact that the Mets issued him a qualifying offer at all is a good sign that the club expects him to be healthy. Still, if Walker has any doubts about how his injury status could impact his market, he could accept the QO to remain in New York, pocket a nice one-season payday and then look to re-enter free agency next winter on the heels of another good season and a clean bill of health.
Both Walker and the Mets expressed interest earlier this year in continuing their relationship into 2017 and beyond, though any notion of extension talks apparently went south in the wake of Walker’s back surgery. From the Mets’ perspective, they could’ve approached a Walker extension as they did their deal with Yoenis Cespedes last winter; a multi-year contract with a player opt-out after the first season, so Walker would’ve had the option of exploring free agency again if he was healthy.
It’s hard to know if Walker would’ve been amenable to a deal like that since, injury aside, he is still expected to land a healthy contract. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts Walker for three years and $36MM, so with that kind of market out there for his services, there wasn’t necessarily any urgency for Walker to rush into an extension with his former club. (New York probably also felt there wasn’t a real chance they could re-sign Walker to a team-friendly extension.) While Walker’s injury adds some uncertainty to his situation, it is still quite uncommon for major free agents to reach extensions with their teams so close to hitting the open market.
NL East Notes: Gio, Rizzo, Mets, Colon, Marlins
Some news from around the NL East…
- The Nationals have no plans to deal Gio Gonzalez, GM Mike Rizzo tells Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. With an enviable amount of young starting depth on hand, there had been speculation that the Nats could look to deal Gonzalez in order to address other roster needs (MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted this scenario in his recent Offseason Outlook piece on the Nationals.) Rizzo did hint, however, that Gonzalez’s rotation spot wasn’t set in stone, as the southpaw, Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, A.J. Cole and Austin Voth could all be competing for two starting jobs rather than just the fifth starter role. One would think that if at least two of these young arms perform well in Spring Training, the Nats could revisit the idea of a Gonzalez swap, though the team would be taking a risk in dealing a proven innings-eater. In addition, Rizzo said Washington is always looking to add young pitching as a general principle, given its value within the game.
- Bartolo Colon‘s departure is a blow to the Mets both in terms of rotation depth and clubhouse chemistry, though John Harper of the New York Daily News opines that by not re-signing the veteran, the Mets saved some money for more pressing offseason needs. With Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in the fold and (hopefully) their regular starters all healthy, spending $12.5MM to re-sign Colon would’ve been an expensive luxury. Harper feels the Mets could instead focus their offseason spending on re-signing Yoenis Cespedes, or adding bullpen depth.
- The Marlins‘ key offseason focus is pitching, though as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro notes, the team also wants to improve its roster depth, both on the Major League bench and within the farm system. Jeff Mathis, Jeff Francoeur and Chris Johnson could all return in backup roles, though Frisaro suggests Miami could also look to reunions with ex-Marlins like Emilio Bonifacio, Chris Coghlan or Alejandro De Aza. A higher-level upgrade would be a player like Steve Pearce, who Frisaro notes the Marlins have shown interest in acquiring in previous seasons.
AL East Notes: Encarnacion, Andujar, Duquette, Orioles
Here’s the latest from around the AL East…
- As of today, the Red Sox and Edwin Encarnacion‘s representatives had yet to engage in serious negotiations, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. Boston has often been cited as a logical landing spot for the free agent slugger, though Paul Kinzer (Encarnacion’s agent) recently said the Sox weren’t pursuing his client as aggressively as expected, and the club may have other targets in mind for the DH spot who would come at a cheaper price. The pro-Encarnacion argument for the Red Sox, Bradford notes, is simply that the long-term concerns may not outweigh the relatively safe value of adding his elite bat. “Because of his recent history, low-impact position, palatable age, and demeanor, it’s fair to suggest Encarnacion wouldn’t be one of those contracts that would make roster-building difficult to manage,” Bradford writes.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he has “a lot of teams asking me about” prospect Miguel Andujar, Brandon Kuty of NJ Advance Media reports. Andujar, 21, hit .273/.332/.410 with 12 homers over 570 plate appearances at the high-A and Double-A levels last season, performing significantly better at the lower level (.817 OPS in 251 PA) than the higher (.681 OPS in 319 Double-A PA), as one might expect. New York took big steps to reload its minor league system last year in the Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller trades, so it remains to be seen how eager the team is to deal Andujar or other notable prospects. If the Yankees were interested in moving a youngster for a proven big leaguer, however, it would stand to reason that they would move an intriguing but not upper-tier minor leaguer like Andujar than they would a blue chip prospect like Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier. MLB.com ranks Andujar as the seventh-best prospect in New York’s farm system.
- Outfield defense and catching depth continue to be offseason priorities for the Orioles, as Dan Duquette tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. At the recently-concluded GM Meetings, Duquette said the O’s “talked to a couple of clubs about potential trades and then we talked to some agents” about catchers. With Matt Wieters hitting free agency, Baltimore has a big vacancy behind the plate, as light-hitting Caleb Joseph is currently the top backstop in the organization.
- Also from Kubatko, the Orioles have parted ways with Rick Peterson, the club’s director of pitching development for the last five seasons. A longtime coach and coordinator in both the majors and minors, Peterson is perhaps best known as a former pitching coach for the Athletics, Mets and Brewers between 1998-2010.
- Earlier today on MLBTR, some more Red Sox and Orioles items were included in an edition of East Notes.
2016-17 Offseason Outlook Series
The MLBTR staff has been hard at work on our annual Offseason Outlook series. This post will be updated to include links to all the completed articles, and will be available under MLBTR Features on the right-hand sidebar on the desktop version of the site.
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West