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Aaron Nola

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

By Steve Adams,Jeff Todd and TC Zencka | January 12, 2019 at 12:15pm CDT

The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

Read more

  • Outfielder David Peralta has a $7MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • Trevor Story has settled for $5MM with the Rockies, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
  • The Dodgers have lined up deals with all of their arbitration-eligible players, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports (Twitter links). Shortstop Corey Seager is slated to receive $4MM as a first-time arb eligible player. Seager had only a $2.6MM projection, but was clearly rewarded for the excellent output he turned in before missing all of the 2018 season due to Tommy John surgery. Reliever Josh Fields went for $2.85MM, Hoornstra adds on Twitter.
  • Yasiel Puig has struck a $9.7MM deal with his new team, the Reds, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (via Twitter).
  • The Mets have inked three notable players. Righty Zack Wheeler shook hands at $5.975MM, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. Likewise, outfielder Michael Conforto ($4.025MM) and lefty Steven Matz ($2.625MM) have agreed to terms, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links).
  • Staying in the division, the Braves also have a trio of new deals today. Starter Kevin Gausman agreed at $9.35MM, righty Dan Winkler at $1.61MM, and lefty Sam Freeman at $1.375MM, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link).
  • The Phillies have agreements in place with all of their arb-eligible players except for star righty Aaron Nola, the club announced. Per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, the salaries came in at $1.35MM for Aaron Altherr, $1.925MM for Jose Alvarez, $5.2MM for Maikel Franco, $7.75MM for Cesar Hernandez, $1.1MM for Adam Morgan, and $2.249MM for Vince Velasquez.
  • Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw has agreed to a $4.675MM salary, while righty Zach Davies settled at $2.6MM, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter).
  • Cubs righty Carl Edwards Jr. secured a $1.5MM salary, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter).
  • Southpaw Adam Conley will earn $1.125MM with the Marlins, Murray tweets.
  • The Marlins and J.T. Realmuto reached a $5.9MM agreement for the upcoming season, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. As perhaps the premier trade chip in baseball, Realmuto’s salary is of particular note for interested teams. He’d been projected at $6.1MM and can be controlled for another two seasons. Meanwhile, infielder Miguel Rojas will earn $3.155MM, per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (on Twitter). He’s controllable through 2020 and was projected to earn $2.6MM, so he quite nicely topped our projection.

 

  • Anthony DeSclafani agreed to a $2.125MM salary with the Reds, tweets Murray, which tops his $2.1MM projection by a narrow sum of $25K. The oft-injured righty will be expected to play a key role in an improving Cincinnati rotation this season and can be controlled through 2020.
  • The D-backs and third baseman Jake Lamb are in agreement on a $4.825MM salary for next season, Murray tweets. That closely resembles the $4.7MM projection for Lamb, who’ll look to bounce back from shoulder troubles and reestablish himself before reaching free agency after the 2020 season.
  • The Diamondbacks and Taijuan Walker settled at $5.025MM, tweets Murray. Walker, who’ll miss a portion of the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April, had been projected to earn the same $4.825MM he made last season, which is common for players who miss an entire season. However, he’ll get a small raise after making three starts. Walker is controlled through 2020.
  • Junior Guerra and the Brewers agreed at $2.225MM, Murray tweets, which checks in a bit south of Guerra’s $2.7MM projection. The late-blooming righty is controlled through the 2022 season. Murray adds that catcher Manny Pina will earn $1.6MM next year after being projected at $1.8MM. He’s controllable through 2021.
  • Padres right-hander Kirby Yates agreed to a $3.0625MM deal that falls nicely in line with his $3MM projection, Murray tweets. Controlled for another two seasons, Yates has established himself as a high-quality reliever in recent years and figures to be among the game’s more prominent trade chips this summer.
  • Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett has agreed to a $9.775MM salary for his final season of club control prior to free agency, tweets Nightengale Jr. He falls a bit shy of his $10.7MM projection, though a near-$10MM payday for Gennett is nonetheless indicative of how much he’s elevated his status since being claimed by the Reds two years ago.
  • Righty Michael Wacha and the Cardinals are in agreement on a $6.35MM salary that is within striking distance of his $6.6MM projection (Twitter link via Nightengale). Wacha will be a free agent next winter.
  • The Mets agreed to a $6MM salary with right-hander Noah Syndergaard, tweets Nightengale. That comes in $100K north of the $5.9MM projection for “Thor,” who is still controllable for another three seasons.
  • Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets that the Rockies agreed to a $960K salary for the 2019 season with catcher Tony Wolters. A rough season at the plate didn’t help Wolters’ earning power, and he’ll come in a bit shy of his $1.1MM projection. Murray tweets that the Rox are also in agreement with southpaw Tyler Anderson on a $2.625MM salary. He’d been projected for $2.9MM. Wolters is controllable for another four years as a Super Two player, while Anderson can be controlled for three.
  • Newly acquired Brewers left-hander Alex Claudio agreed to a $1.275MM salary for the 2019 season, Murray tweets. Claudio, who can be controlled by Milwaukee for three seasons, was projected to earn $1.3MM.
  • Trea Turner and the Nationals avoided a hearing by settling on a one-year deal worth $3.725MM, tweets Murray. That figures to represent one of the more significant misses from MLBTR’s arbitration algorithm this season, as Turner had been projected at $5.3MM as a first-time-eligible Super Two player. The star-caliber shortstop will nonetheless be poised for enormous earnings in arbitration, as he’ll be eligible three more times before reaching free agency after the 2022 season.
  • Cubs lefty Mike Montgomery avoided arbitration with a one-year, $2.44MM contract, tweets Wittenmyer. Montgomery, eligible for arbitration for the first time and controllable for another three years, was projected to earn $3MM.
  • The Rockies and right-hander Chad Bettis settled on a $3.35MM salary for 2019, tweets Nightengale. He’d been projected at $3.2MM and is controlled through the 2020 season.
  • Giants reliever Will Smith has agreed to a $4.225MM salary for his final season of team control, Nightengale tweets. Smith’s outstanding 2018 season will push his arbitration salary a bit north of his $4.1MM projection as he gears up for his final season before reaching free agency.
  • Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray is set to earn $6.05MM next season after agreeing to a one-year deal, per Nightengale. That lands with in $50K of Ray’s $6.1MM projection. The left-hander is controlled through the 2020 season.
  • The Marlins and right-hander Jose Urena settled at a $3.2MM salary for the 2019 campaign, Murray tweets, That figure checks in a bit shy of the $3.6MM projected for Urena, who is arb-eligible for the first time this offseason and remains under club control through the 2021 season. Meanwhile, Nightengale tweets that Dan Straily will earn a $5MM salary in 2019, topping his $4.8MM projection by $200K. Straily can be controlled through 2020.
  • Kyle Schwarber and the Cubs have avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $3.39MM, tweets Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. That checks in slightly north of his $3.1MM projection as a first-time eligible player. Schwarber is controlled for another three seasons.
  • The Braves and righty Dan Winkler settled at $1.61MM, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That tops MLBTR’s projection by the slightest of margins, at $10K. Winkler is controllable through the 2020 season.
  • Right-hander/pinch-hitter extraordinaire Michael Lorenzen and the Reds settled at $1.95MM, tweets Murray. He’d been projected to earn $1.9MM. Lorenzen is a Super Two player who’s eligible for arbitration for the second time this winter. Cincinnati can control him through the 2021 season, and he’ll be arb-eligible twice more. Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that Jose Peraza agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.775MM. The shortstop is a first-time eligible Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM.
  • The Braves announced that they’ve signed Charlie Culberson to a one-year deal worth $1.395MM, which lines up near perfectly with his $1.4MM projection. It’s his first trip through the arbitration process, and the Braves can control him through the 2021 season. Murray tweets that the Braves also settled at $2.875MM with outfielder Adam Duvall, who’d been projected at $3.1MM.
  • Corey Knebel and the Brewers settled on a one-year, $5.125MM salary for the upcoming season, tweets Murray. The right-hander is in his second trip through arbitration as a Super Two player and had been projected at $4.9MM. He’s controlled through the 2021 season.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Kyle Hendricks agreed to a one-year deal worth $7.405MM, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. He’d been projected at $7.6MM and will be arb-eligible once more next winter before reaching free agency.
  • Right-hander Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves settled at one year and $5.475MM, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today, which lines up very closely with his $5.5MM projection. Folty’s breakout season netted him a substantial raise from last year’s $2.2MM, and he’ll be arb-eligible twice more before reaching free agency after the 2021 season.
  • Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino has agreed to a one-year deal worth $4.8MM, tweets Robert Murray of The Athletic. That matches his $4.8MM salary projection on the dot. It’s the 28-year-old’s final season of arbitration eligibility, as he’ll be a free agent next winter.
  • The Diamondbacks avoided arbitration with lefty reliever Andrew Chafin by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.945MM, tweets Murray. He’ll top his $1.8MM projection by a slight margin and will be arb-eligible once more next winter before hitting free agency following the 2020 season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Transactions Washington Nationals Aaron Altherr Aaron Nola Adam Conley Adam Duvall Adam Morgan Alex Claudio Anthony DeSclafani Arodys Vizcaino Carl Edwards Jr. Cesar Hernandez Chad Bettis Charlie Culberson Chris Dickerson Chris Taylor Corey Dickerson Corey Knebel Corey Seager Dan Straily Dan Winkler David Peralta Dominic Leone J.T. Realmuto Jake Lamb Jameson Taillon Joc Pederson Joe Musgrove Jon Gray Jose Alvarez Jose Peraza Jose Urena Josh Bell Josh Fields Junior Guerra Keone Kela Kevin Gausman Kirby Yates Kyle Hendricks Kyle Schwarber Maikel Franco Manny Pina Marcell Ozuna Michael Conforto Michael Lorenzen Michael Wacha Miguel Rojas Mike Foltynewicz Mike Montgomery Noah Syndergaard Robbie Ray Sam Freeman Scooter Gennett Steven Matz Taijuan Walker Todd Zolecki Tony Wolters Travis Shaw Trea Turner Trevor Story Tyler Anderson Will Smith Yasiel Puig Zach Davies Zack Wheeler

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Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

By Jeff Todd and TC Zencka | January 12, 2019 at 9:15am CDT

Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).
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Arizona Diamondbacks Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Miami Marlins New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Philadelphia Phillies Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Aaron Nola Alex Wood Blake Treinen Carlos Correa Chris Devenski Dallas Keuchel Gerrit Cole Kyle Barraclough Luis Severino Michael A. Taylor Michael Fulmer Michael Taylor Nolan Arenado Ryan Tepera T.J. McFarland Tommy Pham Trevor Bauer

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East Notes: Eickhoff, Phillies, Cora, Gsellman, Lugo

By Kyle Downing | September 29, 2018 at 10:35am CDT

28-year-old righty Jerad Eickhoff gave the Phillies a feel-good story yesterday by tying a club record during his first MLB start in 13 months, as Joe Bloss details in a piece for MLB.com. Eickhoff managed to strike out seven consecutive Braves (eight overall) before allowing a homer to Johan Camargo and a single to Ozzie Albies, prompting an early hook by manager Gabe Kapler. Though Eickhoff was only allowed to throw 54 pitches, he recorded eight of his ten outs via the strikeout and didn’t walk a batter.

It stands to reason that a strong 2019 spring performance on the part of Eickhoff could have him back in the conversation for a rotation spot next year, though he’s likely to face some stiff competition. A rotation featuring Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin has done well in 2018, and each has accumulated at least 2.0 fWAR to date. That’s to say nothing of any potential offseason rotation additions, which the Phillies could certainly afford to purchase given their massive budget and relatively low 2019 payroll commitments. Still, Eickhoff made an intriguing opening statement to support his case last night.

More off the coast of the Atlantic…

  • Speaking of the Phillies and their big winter budget, Scott Lauber opens an article for Philly.com by bluntly stating that John Middleton is “ready to make it rain.” With less than $70MM in salary commitments for the 2019 season, Lauber echoes the oft-heard sentiments that Philadelphia is firmly in the mix to sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado (if not both). With that in mind, he embarked on a quest to discover who a panel of experts would prefer to sign. The criteria mentioned in Lauber’s excellent journalistic endeavor operates upon a slew of criteria including pure talent, durability/longevity and organizational fit.
  • Alex Speier of the Boston Globe recently wrote about how manager Alex Cora has changed the organizational culture of the Red Sox in regards to analytics. According to Speier, some front offices last year weren’t on the lookout for authority figures to serve as their club’s skippers as the were trying to identify someone who could “serve as a conduit for data-driven analysis”. Cora’s been able to do just that, as evidenced in a recent defensive shift detailed in Speier’s piece, though that’s far from the only example. “He’s kind of reformed the culture of how we’re going to integrate data into decision-making,” assistant GM Eddie Romero said of the rookie manager.
  • The Mets have elected to shut down right-handers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman for the season, per a report from Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The decision comes as a result of workload concerns, as the two relievers have combined for 181 1/3 innings on the season. Mickey Callaway offered his thoughts on the subject. “”We feel that those guys have had outstanding years,” he explained. “They both finished with a save, on a strong note. They’ve probably done more than we could have ever asked to this point. And we felt these last three games, we’re going to give these younger guys a shot to go out there and nail down the games for us. We feel this is taking care of them heading into the offseason, so they can come back and be even better next year.”

 

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Boston Red Sox New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Aaron Nola Alex Cora Bryce Harper Jerad Eickhoff Manny Machado Robert Gsellman Seth Lugo

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Quick Hits: Wong, Nola, Phillips, Sano

By Kyle Downing | September 23, 2018 at 3:01pm CDT

Per a tweet from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong received some bad news recently. An MRI showed damage in Wong’s knee that might need to be addressed in the offseason, though there’s no official word on that either way. The general belief from the Cardinals’ camp, Wong included, is that the aforementioned knee damage may be contributing to the recurring soreness in his hamstring. There’s also some concern that the severity of the damage could lead to a strain. Despite this issue, Wong’s still put up the most productive season of his career thus far, in part due to outstanding defensive marks that include 21 Defensive Runs Saved and a 19.8 UZR/150.

Other news and rumors from around the league…

  • Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets that the Phillies were “deep in meetings” this morning to plot the club’s final eight contests of the season. Gelb notes that Aaron Nola will pass 200 innings today (and in fact, has, as of me writing this sentence), which could spell the end of the season for the club’s emergent ace. Some in the organization had suggested earlier in the season that the Phillies were planning to limit Nola to 185 innings on the season, but contender status necessitated them to increase that total. Now, though, Philadelphia is no longer playing with October in mind, which may help to explain why Gelb ponders aloud whether today could be Nola’s last start of 2018.
  • Speaking of innings caps, Orioles rookie right-hander Evan Phillips won’t pitch again this season, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. He’s reached an innings limit after hurling a career-high 63 relief frames on the season between the Orioles, Braves and the Triple-A affiliates of the two clubs. Phillips, 24, has allowed 11 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in Baltimore; he became part of the Orioles organization by way of the deadline deal that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves.
  • A magnetic resonance imaging exam didn’t turn up any new leads as to the cause of Miguel Sano’s knee discomfort, Mike Berardino writes as part of a piece for the Pioneer Press. Twins manager Paul Molitor provided some words on the subject, which must be frustrating for club and fan base alike. “We tried to eliminate things that might be sources or causes of the aggravation that he continues to feel,” said Molitor. “A little bit of a puzzle that we haven’t been able to solve yet in terms of the discomfort he continues to experience. We’re hoping with treatment and maybe a little bit more rest, we’ll be in a better place come Tuesday.” Sano has only appeared in the lineup once since September 4th, which comes as another black mark on a miserable follow-up to the three strong campaigns with which he began his career.
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Baltimore Orioles Minnesota Twins Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals Aaron Nola Evan Phillips Kolten Wong Miguel Sano Philadelphia Phillias

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Looking Ahead To Phillies’ Offseason

By Connor Byrne | September 22, 2018 at 7:12pm CDT

The Phillies fell to the NL East rival Braves on Saturday, enabling Atlanta to clinch the division and continuing a difficult few months for Philadelphia. While the Phillies have gone just 25-34 since the All-Star break to fall out of playoff contention, the team’s still 78-76 and on pace for its first .500 or better campaign since 2012. And with plenty of spending room and multiple superstars set to reach free agency over the winter, the Phillies are in for a “fascinating” offseason, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports observes (video link).

The Phillies will head into the offseason with just under $70MM in guaranteed money on their books, as Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates, but that number could decrease, per Rosenthal. Aside from ace Aaron Nola and slugger Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies will be “open to trading” just about everyone during the winter, Rosenthal reports, though he notes it’s “unlikely” they’ll end up moving first baseman Carlos Santana. While Santana has come up as a speculative trade candidate, and moving him would open up first for Hoskins (who has struggled in the outfield), dealing the former “would be an admission by the Phils that they never should have signed Santana in the first place,” Rosenthal says. Santana was one of the prize pickups of last winter for the Phillies, who inked him to a three-year, $60MM deal and have since seen the longtime Indian, 32, turn in a respectable season.

Assuming both Santana and second baseman Cesar Hernandez return in 2019, the right side of the Phillies’ infield should be set. The left side may be another story, though, as the Phillies have gotten mediocre or worse production from their options at both shortstop and third base this year. That could put them in the market for pending free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado – a long-speculated target – and signing him or someone else could put the club in position to move third baseman Maikel Franco or another young infielder, Rosenthal observes.

Shifting to the outfield, Rosenthal floats the idea of the Phillies sending center fielder Odubel Herrera elsewhere to land a veteran for their rotation. After a terrific run from 2015-17, Herrera has taken steps backward this year. Nevertheless, as a soon-to-be 27-year-old with an appealing contract (he’s owed between $25.5MM to $46MM through 2023), Herrera would likely draw a fair amount of interest on the trade market. Parting with him would enable the Phillies to flip one of the younger members of their rotation “for something else they might need,” Rosenthal posits.

Whether the Phillies need to do anything of note with their starting staff is up for debate, though, as Nola, offseason signing Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin and Nick Pivetta have each amassed at least 23 starts and 2.1 fWAR so far this season. Thanks largely to that quintet, Philly’s rotation ranks sixth in the majors in fWAR (15.3). Further, each member of that group is under control next season, with Arrieta’s $25MM representing the lone lofty salary of the group.

Dating back to the July All-Star break, the Phillies have fallen well out of contention in the NL East – a division they led at the midway point- and the wild-card hunt, but it still seems they’re on the right track. Indeed, general manager Matt Klentak indicated as much a week ago. He and the rest of the Phillies’ brain trust are now set to spend the coming months trying to put the club in position to snap its soon-to-be seven-year playoff drought. With a good amount talent on hand to build around, plenty of money to spend, and Machado, Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw among the offseason’s potential free agents, the Phillies should be one of the majors’ most interesting teams to watch in the coming months.

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Philadelphia Phillies Aaron Nola Carlos Santana Odubel Herrera Rhys Hoskins

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Extension Candidate: Aaron Nola

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2017 at 4:20pm CDT

The Phillies have scrupulously maintained their future balance sheets, preferring not to make any commitments that might tie their hands in future seasons. But the organization has already made one exception, inking Odubel Herrera last winter, and could explore yet more extensions with core players this winter.

Aaron Nola | Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

One could probably make a case for a very early strike with one of the team’s less-experienced would-be stars — chief among them, Rhys Hoskins. But by far the likeliest candidate for a long-term deal is righty Aaron Nola, who was selected with the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft and has since established himself as one of the game’s better young starters.

Nola, 24, reached the majors after just 30 minor-league appearances, showing quite well in his 13-start debut at just 22 years of age. Last year, though, he faded after a strong opening and ended the season facing injury questions. Nola ultimately avoided surgery for some UCL and flexor tendon issues and was able to rehabilitate through the problem over the offseason.

It’s easy to forget now, but entering the current season, nobody was quite sure what to expect from Nola. He responded with 168 innings of 3.54 ERA ball. Nola also racked up 9.9 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 along with a 49.8% ground-ball rate in his 27 starts, showing career-best numbers in average fastball velocity (92.5 mph) and swinging-strike rate (10.8%).

Looking at Nola’s overall body of work, it’s hard not to be impressed. While he did struggle to keep runs off the board in 2016, advanced metrics have basically loved him from day one. Through 356 2/3 MLB frames, he carries a 3.38 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, and 3.52 SIERA.

The hugely positive outlook on his future makes Nola a bargain, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron suggested when ranking him 49th in all of baseball on his top 50 trade value rankings. Because he didn’t reach the Majors quite soon enough back in 2015, Nola will fall shy of Super Two qualification, meaning he’ll play at (or near) the league minimum in 2018 before reaching his three years of arbitration eligibility.

While Nola did take home over $3MM to sign out of LSU, he has another year to wait for significant Major League earnings. That means risk aplenty, which is true of any pitcher but perhaps especially so for Nola, given his prior injury scare. He and the team are aware of the details of the medical situation and thus can adequately account for the risk it entails, but that factor could also push him in the direction of weighing a contract extension.

It’s tempting to speak abstractly about a possible discount for the injury questions. In truth, though, the more interesting question is just what framework might be utilized as a starting point for talks. To this point, no pre-arbitration starter has scored a guarantee of over $40MM. Even Corey Kluber, a 2+ service-class pitcher like Nola, was promised $38.5MM over five years (while giving up two option years) in his 2015 contract. Kluber was more than five years older than Nola is now but also was coming off of a Cy Young Award at the time.

The Kluber deal largely fell in line with prior pre-arb starter contracts, though, and even moved the standard up a bit. Chris Sale ($32.5MM), Derek Holland ($28.5MM), and Trevor Cahill ($30.5MM) are a few of the prior 2+ service hurlers that took five-year deals with similar structures.

Though Nola has staked out a claim as a top-quality young starter, it’s hard to argue that he has shown more to this point than had Sale or Madison Bumgarner (who signed his own five-year, $35MM deal as a 1+ service-class player). Considerations of inflation could be somewhat offset by Nola’s health record, though his representatives would surely argue that his avoidance of surgery and a 2017 season free of arm issues render that a largely moot point.

Provisions could be worked in that would protect the team in the event of an elbow flare-up, such as the addition of cheap option years at the end of the pact. (For example, both Felix Hernandez and John Lackey have previously agreed to clauses that add a league-minimum option to the end of their deal in the event of Tommy John surgery) Or, perhaps the wealthy Phils would be willing mostly to look past Nola’s elbow questions in the hunt for upside, reasoning that the overall risk is minimal and that the open-market price for pitching has steadily risen in recent years and figures to do so between now and the point at which Nola himself would reach the open market.

The previously mentioned five-year structure would run through Nola’s age-29 season and buy out one free-agent year. That’s still a lucrative age at which to reach the open market, though the Phils may seek to add a club option or two that’d further delay his path to the open market. Reaching free agency in advance of his age-31 season would leave Nola with plenty of earning capacity, though tacking on a second club option (and thus delaying his free agency by three full years) could be a tough sell. Generally speaking, Nola and his reps at Paragon Sports would be weighing whether an immediate guarantee is worth forgoing the opportunity to reach free agency before his age-29 season — an age at which he’d almost certainly be one of the youngest starters on the market.

With a number of factors for both sides to weigh, it’ll be an interesting situation to watch if the Phillies and Nola do indeed sit down this winter. Nola could well become the latest Phillies player to secure a long-term commitment as part of the organization’s hopeful contending core, but his proximity to arbitration should reduce his urgency to take a deal to some extent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NL East Notes: Nola, Mackanin, Braves, Moore, Marlins

By Steve Adams | October 5, 2017 at 9:49pm CDT

Though Phillies righty Aaron Nola tells Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he hasn’t thought much about the potential of signing a long-term deal with the Phils, Gelb opines that Nola is a prime extension candidate for the team this winter. The 24-year-old’s recent arm troubles present some risk in approaching him about a long-term pact, but there’s inherent risk when extending any pitcher, and Nola has established himself as an above-average starter over his two-plus seasons of work, Gelb argues. With Nola still a year away from arbitration eligibility, the Phils could look to strike now in hopes of securing control over one or more free-agent years, as they did with center fielder Odubel Herrera in the 2016-17 offseason. Gelb’s piece includes a number of potential comparables as well as quotes from Nola and teammate Clay Buchholz, who signed a long-term deal himself at a similar point in his career.

More out of the NL East…

  • FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that one reason the Phillies might’ve made the surprising decision to remove Pete Mackanin as manager just months after giving him an extension was that the arrival of players like Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams and other young talents may have somewhat accelerated the team’s timeline. Heyman writes that the Phils viewed Mackanin as “more of a caretaker” than a long-term solution, and they may now look for a skipper who’ll hold down the fort for years to come. Heyman notes that having a more concrete manager in place could be a selling point next winter when the team could pursue multiple top names in free agency.
  • Heyman also reports that Braves chairman John Schuerholz and president of baseball ops John Hart are “said to be at odds” with one another, though Hart firmly denied the notion. “John and I are lifelong friends, and there is mutual baseball respect as well,” Hart tells Heyman. “Nobody totally agrees on every player, staff member, etc. That’s just baseball.” Heyman adds that Schuerholz “would love” to bring Royals GM Dayton Moore on board to run the team’s baseball ops department and groom Schuerholz’s son, Jonathan. The younger Schuerholz is currently the team’s assistant director of player development. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted yesterday that Moore is “more open” to leaving the Royals for the Braves than in the past, though the decision will likely boil down to whether he’s given full authority over the team’s baseball operations department. That’d suggest that Hart sticking around and holding onto the “president” title he’s held for the past few seasons would be a deterrent to hiring Moore.
  • Derek Jeter’s former teammates Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez and Andy Pettitte are all candidates for jobs with the Marlins, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. It’s not yet clear what role any would have with the organization, if hired, though Martinez’s first stint with the Marlins didn’t exactly end well, as he resigned from his post as hitting coach after allegations about being abusive with his players. In other Marlins news, Heyman writes that Jeter is “serious” about bringing Yankees exec Gary Denbo over to the Miami front office — likely as the head of player development and scouting. Michael Hill is expected to maintain his duties as the team’s president of baseball operations. Denbo’s contract with the Yankees is up soon, Heyman notes.
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Injury Updates: Hill, Forsythe, Doolittle, Nola, Capps

By Mark Polishuk | May 6, 2017 at 9:47am CDT

Here’s the latest on some of the many DL situations from around baseball…

  • Rich Hill will make another rehab start in Class A ball on Tuesday and then rejoin the Dodgers rotation, manager Dave Roberts told the L.A. Times’ Bill Shaikin (Twitter link) and other reporters.  Hill has twice been placed on the DL this season due to recurring blister problems, and while a potential move to the bullpen had been considered, the southpaw will instead resume his duties as a starting pitcher.  Hill’s first rehab outing (60 pitches split between a bullpen session and an in-game performance) last Thursday seemed to go well, as Hill told MLB.com’s George Alfano that his blister wasn’t an issue.
  • In other Dodgers injury news, Roberts also told the media (including Shaikin) that second baseman Logan Forsythe will resume his rehab assignment after the weekend.  Forsythe, who suffered a fractured big right toe two weeks ago, was tentatively slated to be activated from the DL this weekend before he felt some hamstring tightness during a rehab game earlier this week.
  • Sean Doolittle told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jane Lee) that an MRI revealed no structural problems in his ailing left shoulder.  Doolittle, who is no stranger to more serious shoulder issues, described his current injury as “more like tightness or soreness that’s just a little more intense than painful,” and “it feels more muscular than anything I’ve ever felt before.”  While this diagnosis is certainly positive news, there isn’t yet any timeline for Doolittle’s return, as Athletics manager Bob Melvin said yesterday that the team would likely “be conservative with” Doolittle given his prior injury history.
  • Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola also received good MRI news, as GM Matt Klentak told PhillyVoice.com’s Ryan Lawrence and other reporters that nothing seems to be amiss after Nola felt discomfort in his lower back while throwing a side session earlier this week.  Nola, who has been on the DL since April 24 with a lower back strain, will throw another bullpen this weekend and is on track to begin a rehab assignment next week if all goes well.
  • The Padres will likely ask for an extension of Carter Capps’ rehab stint from Tommy John surgery, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes.  The usual 30-day limit to rehab assignments can be extended three times for players recovering from TJ surgery, given the extensive nature of that particular recovery.  Capps, who underwent the surgery in March 2016, struggled at Triple-A and will now be moved to the Padres’ Spring Training complex.
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NL Notes: Thames, Posey, Dodgers, Phillies

By Connor Byrne | April 29, 2017 at 10:12pm CDT

Eric Thames’ agent, Adam Karon, was the driving force behind the now-Brewers’ slugger’s decision to sign with the Korea Baseball Organization in 2013, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. “My view was, ‘Look, you’ve always been successful when you’ve played every day, and you’re not going to get the opportunity here,’” Karon said. “He was the last man on the 40-man roster of the worst team in baseball.”

Then a member of the Astros organization and a participant in the Venezuelan Winter League, Thames scoffed at Karon’s suggestion initially. However, he had a change of heart and ended up inking a two-year deal with the NC Dinos. Thames became a sensation in Korea, where he toyed with the KBO’s offspeed-heavy pitchers from 2014-16. He parlayed that success into a three-year, $16MM pact with the Brewers this past winter, and the first baseman has certainly done his part to justify that investment so far. The 30-year-old entered Saturday leading the league in both home runs (11) and ISO (an absurd .506), and he has swung at just 19.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone – down from 36.3 percent with the Mariners and Blue Jays from 2011-12. There is skepticism toward Thames’ success, though, evidenced in part by the fact that the league administered him a random drug test for the third time in a 10-day span on Friday, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Thames seems more amused than bothered by the testing, but he’s not sure how “random” it actually is, relays Haudricourt (Twitter link).

More from the National League:

  • Giants catcher Buster Posey has long been a workhorse behind the plate, and while moving the 30-year-old to a different position could possibly help prolong his effectiveness, it’s not on the team’s agenda, details Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. “When you have a guy that’s led us to three titles, a lot of it is because of his preparation and guidance of the starting rotation and the bullpen,” said general manager Bobby Evans. “I think it distinguishes him from other positions — and other guys. My mindset is we’re a better team with Buster back there, and as long as we can keep him back there, we want to do it.” Posey wouldn’t fight a position change down the line, saying that “it’s about winning ballgames,” but he notes that “there’s value in having a good hitter behind the plate and being able to put a bat at first base as well.” The Giants plan to start Posey 115 to 120 times at catcher and in 15 to 20 games at first/designated hitter, per Crasnick,  potentially putting him on track for a sixth straight 140-plus-game season.
  • The Dodgers have considered shifting the blister-plagued Rich Hill to the bullpen, but manager Dave Roberts announced Saturday that the left-hander will return to their rotation when they activate him from the DL, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Hill, who landed on the shelf April 17 (already his second DL stint of the year), will throw a four-frame, 60-pitch rehab outing with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Thursday.
  • Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola isn’t making ideal progress in his recovery from a lower-back strain. Nola threw a two-inning simulation game Friday and then complained of back discomfort, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com was among those to report. That means Nola won’t come off the DL when he’s first eligible on Monday. When asked if Nola suffered a setback, manager Pete Mackanin said: “If you want to call it that. We’re being cautious with him this early in the season.” Mackanin added, though, that Nola is “improving.”
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NL East Notes: Nola, Braves, Nationals

By Steve Adams | April 24, 2017 at 2:28pm CDT

The Phillies announced today that righty Aaron Nola has been placed on the 10-day DL due to a strained lower back. “After receiving treatment over the last few days, the symptoms improved, but he still felt some tightness during his side session yesterday,” GM Matt Klentak said in a press release. “Our hope and expectation is that this will not be a lengthy DL placement and that Aaron will miss only one or two starts.” Nola joins right-hander Buchholz on the disabled list, thus creating a temporary avenue for another of the Phillies’ upper-level arms to get a look in the Majors. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki both suggest that right-hander Nick Pivetta (originally acquired in exchange for Jonathan Papelbon) could be the preferred option to start in Nola’s place (Twitter links).

More from the NL East…

  • Earlier today, the Braves traded veteran reliever David Hernandez, who was with the team’s Triple-A affiliate, to the Angels in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution adds a bit of context, tweeting that while Hernandez posted solid numbers in Gwinnett, he did not impress the club to the extent that fellow veteran Jason Motte has to this point while pitching in Triple-A. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, meanwhile, tweets that Hernandez had a May 1 opt-out, so Atlanta decided to move him while it was still possible to get a marginal return. Notably, O’Brien suggests that Motte could soon get a look in Atlanta’s Major League ’pen.
  • Nationals manager Dusty Baker confirmed that the team will give Jacob Turner a spot start tonight while Stephen Strasburg is out on paternity leave, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. While Turner’s track record in the Majors isn’t impressive, Baker suggested that the team wasn’t comfortable bringing someone up to make their first Major League start at Coors Field. “We thought about other guys, but we didn’t really want their first start in the big leagues to be in Colorado,” Baker said of that potentially daunting task. “He has big league experience and Stras is having a second child. If not, it would’ve been Stras out there.”
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