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Aaron Nola

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

The Opener: Nola, Yamamoto, Hall Of Fame Ballot

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As another week of the offseason kicks off, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball:

1. Phillies to hold press conference for Aaron Nola

The Phillies will host a press conference this afternoon at 12:30 PM CT to officially announce the re-signing of All-Star right-hander Aaron Nola. On Sunday, the two sides came to terms on a seven-year, $172MM contract to keep the longest-tenured Phillie in red pinstripes through his age-37 campaign. The deal marks the first nine-figure transaction of the offseason, and Nola becomes the first of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents to come off the board.

While his $24.57MM average annual salary is merely a few hundred thousand dollars lower than the $25MM figure we predicted at MLBTR, his total guaranteed salary is higher. What’s more, Nola reportedly took a hometown discount (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post), turning down even higher offers from other teams to stay with the club that drafted him seventh overall in 2014. Thus, it will be interesting to see how his deal influences the market for other starting pitchers in a similar tier, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted this week

Speaking of Yamamoto, the Orix Buffaloes are expected to post the righty sometime this week, kicking off the 45-day window MLB clubs will have to negotiate with the 25-year-old superstar. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests the three-time NPB Triple Crown winner will be posted as early as today, and the 45-day countdown will officially begin on Tuesday.

Yamamoto is widely considered the best arm available in free agency, and it would have been reasonable for a top pitcher like Nola to wait for him to set the market at some point in the next six weeks. However, it turns out Nola was the first domino to fall, so perhaps we’ll see the other clubs that were in the mix for his services pivot to Yamamoto instead.

3. Hall of Fame ballot to be revealed

The 2024 BBWAA ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be unveiled today. Returning names will include Todd Helton (6th year on the ballot), Billy Wagner (9th), Andruw Jones (7th), Gary Sheffield (10th and final), Alex Rodriguez (3rd), Manny Ramirez (8th), Omar Vizquel (7th), Andy Pettitte (6th), and Bobby Abreu (5th). Helton and Wagner each earned more than two-thirds of the vote on the previous ballot, and each has a solid chance to earn the necessary 75% of the vote this time around. Meanwhile, Sheffield will hope to jump from 55% to 75% in his final year on the ballot.

Newcomers to the ballot will include Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, and José Bautista. Beltré is a likely Hall of Famer and has a chance to enter on his first ballot. Mauer and Utley aren’t as likely to reach the threshold for enshrinement right away, but they will hope to begin drumming up support for an eventual election. Finally, Wright, Colon, Holliday, and Bautista are long shots to enter the Hall, but with their various accolades and career accomplishments, they should earn enough support to remain on the ballot.

Phillies Re-Sign Aaron Nola

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One of the offseason’s top free agents is staying put, as the Phillies announced that Aaron Nola has been re-signed to a seven-year deal.  Nola will earn $172MM over the course of the contract, which contains no opt-out clauses or club options.  Nola is represented by Paragon Sports.

Nola, 30, was selected seventh overall by the Phillies in the 2014 draft. The right-hander was a quick riser to the big leagues, making his MLB debut shortly after the All-Star break in 2015 at the age of 22. His rookie season saw him post a respectable 3.59 ERA (107 ERA+) and 4.04 FIP across 13 starts in the majors. It was a preview of the reliable, back-of-the-rotation production Nola would provide the Phillies with throughout his early twenties: he posted a 3.94 ERA (106 ERA+) across the first three seasons of his big league career, though a 3.38 FIP in that time suggested there was more potential yet to come for the young righty.

That potential was unleashed during the 2018 season. Nola posted a sterling 2.37 ERA while racking up 224 strikeouts across 212 1/3 innings of work. The performance not only earned Nola his first career All-Star appearance and a third-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting that year, but the Phillies also inked him to a new contract. The two sides agreed to a four-year extension with a club option for the 2023 season shortly before Opening Day 2019.

While Nola never quite replicated that incredible 2018 campaign over the life of his extension, he’s remained one of the most durable starters in the league over the past half-decade. Since the start of the 2018 season, only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings than Nola’s 1065 1/3 figure. While Nola’s ERA of 3.65 is dragged down by difficult 2021 and 2023 seasons that saw him post results closer to that of a league-average starter than an ace, his 3.38 FIP over the past six seasons is a top-ten figure among arms with at least 700 innings of work across that timeframe. That leaves him with a whopping 25.5 fWAR accumulated over the past six seasons, an excellent figure topped only by Cole, Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom.

Impressive as those numbers are, Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is a hefty one for a pitcher coming off a 4.46 ERA (96 ERA+) platform season. Though Nola’s struggles in 2023 could fairly be attributed, at least in part, to a deflated 66.4% strand rate and an elevated 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs, he’ll continue to call the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park home while pitching in front of a Phillies defense that ranked below average by measure of Outs Above Average last season and bottom-five per Defensive Runs Saved. While a full-time shift to DH for Kyle Schwarber and additional reps for Bryce Harper at his new position of first base should help the Phillies out in the field next season, the defensive holes created by Nick Castellanos in right field and Trea Turner at shortstop seem unlikely to be plugged any time soon.

Previous reporting indicated the Phillies were hesitant to give Nola a seven-year contract, but Philadelphia continued a trend that became more common — stretching deals for top free agents in terms of years to lower the contract’s AAV. It’s a tactic used with several positional free agents last offseason, including Turner’s own 11-year pact with the Phillies. While the deal between Nola and the Phillies will keep the right-hander on the payroll through the 2030 season, the club will pay Nola just $24.57MM yearly for luxury tax purposes.

That AAV comes in far below not only that of previous top-tier free agent starters like David Price ($31MM AAV), but also more recent arms like Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon ($27MM AAV). Nola’s annual figure is much more closely in line with that of previous free agent arms like Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin, none of whom entered free agency with a track record of success comparable to Nola’s. The lowered AAV could help the Phillies if they look to avoid surpassing higher levels of the luxury tax. In 2024, Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll just over $252MM for luxury tax purposes, putting them around $5MM below the second luxury tax threshold of $257MM. Of course, staying under that figure would require the Phillies to either trim payroll elsewhere on the roster or make virtually no additional moves this offseason, though Nola’s lower AAV could still come into play for luxury tax purposes in future seasons.

Nola clocked in at number five on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected the righty for a six-year, $150MM contract. While that projection ended up one year and $22MM light, it seems that Nola could have surpassed the deal he took with the Phillies had he decided to sign elsewhere as the New York Post’s Heyman reports that Nola took a lesser deal to remain in Philadelphia. It’s unclear which team or teams topped Philly’s offer, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan notes that the Braves were considered a “real threat” to land Nola while Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Tom Ackerman of KMOX this morning that he had been engaged with Nola’s agents during his free agency but that Nola had a “really strong desire” to return to the Phillies.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made fairly clear that the Phillies only plan on adding one arm to their rotation this offseason, and with Nola back on board it seems the club’s rotation is set headed into 2024. While it’s certainly feasible that the heavy lifting for the Phillies could already be done for the offseason, there are still holes on the roster the club could look to address. The club could look to add a bat to their left field mix rather than rely on Johan Rojas as an everyday player after a solid 59-game stint in the majors this year, while the club’s late-inning mix could use a right-handed arm to pair with Jose Alvarado after veteran closer Craig Kimbrel departed for free agency.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report that the agreement was in place, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $172MM figure. Nightengale and Jon Heyman of the New York Post respectively added the details about the no-trade clause and the lack of club options or opt-outs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Phillies Still Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Additional Depth Pitching

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Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.  A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.”  Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances.  Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.

That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent.  Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.

Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason.  Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A.  Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.

This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez.  If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.

In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training.  2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship.  The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.

Braves Interested In Sonny Gray

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The Braves have interest in Sonny Gray, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) describes Atlanta as “one of the top suitors” for the right-hander’s services.  The Twins (Gray’s former team), Cardinals, and Phillies have all been linked to the free agent at various points this winter, though Philadelphia is probably off the board after re-signing Aaron Nola earlier today.

Intriguingly, Morosi and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Atlanta also made a push to sign Nola, indicating that the Braves have their eyes on a big rotation upgrade.  Reports from last week suggested that the Braves were targeting pitching help, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier today that “at least front-line starter” seems to be on Atlanta’s wishlist

As Rosenthal and others have observed since Friday’s non-tender deadline, the Braves made a flurry of cuts to their arbitration class, as a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders resulted in 10 open spots on the 40-man roster and almost  $14MM shaved from the budget.  The Braves were planning to increase payroll anyway in 2024, yet naturally every dollar counts in a situation where Atlanta might have to outbid other teams for a top free agent hurler.

MLB Trade Rumors projected a four-year, $90MM deal for Gray, who ranked ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.  The three-time All-Star has been solid for most of his 11-year career, but 2023 was arguably Gray’s best season, as he delivered a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings for the Twins and finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting.  While Gray’s past injury history is a little checkered, his performance last year likely helped calm some doubts over whether or not Gray can remain a productive and durable arm as he enters his age-34 season.

It is possible that the Braves view Gray as, at the very least, a successor to Charlie Morton as the rotation’s veteran stalwart.  Morton came to Atlanta in advance of his age-37 season and has been very effective over his three seasons with the team, to the point that the Braves exercised their $20MM club option to bring Morton back for 2024.  Morton is now 40 years old and often considering retirement, while Max Fried can be a free agent next winter, so Atlanta could use another longer-term pitcher to pair alongside Spencer Strider.

Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has been pretty measured in his free agent pursuits in his six years running the front office.  Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal is easily the largest contract the Braves have given out in the Anthopoulos era, with most of their other signings trending towards one- or two-year deals with experienced veterans (i.e. Kenley Jansen, Josh Donaldson, Morton’s initial deal).  Because the Braves surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d also have to give up two 2024 draft picks and $1MM in international draft pool money to sign a qualifying-offer rejecting free agent like Gray.

However, it could be that this is simply an extra price that Anthopoulos is willing to pay to bolster the rotation.  While the Braves’ starting pitching has been more than solid in recent years, it has fallen short in the playoffs the last two years, plus the Braves navigated a lot of rotation injuries last year in particular.  Since there’s no indication that Atlanta’s powerful lineup is going to slow down, improving the pitching staff might be the last step necessary in getting the Braves back to the World Series.

Central Notes: Woodruff, Turnbull, Cardinals

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The Brewers parted ways with right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff ahead of the non-tender deadline late last week, making the 30-year-old a free agent for the first time in his career. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discussed the circumstances under which Woodruff became a free agent and his outlook entering the open market this morning, noting that the Brewers did receive interest from multiple clubs ahead of Friday’s deadline in acquiring Woodruff. The return in such a deal would have been negligible, however, and Rosenthal notes that Milwaukee decided to simply non-tender Woodruff rather than ship him to a team he might not prefer to join in exchange for a minimal return.

Now that the Brewers have allowed Woodruff to hit free agency, Rosenthal notes that the right-hander figures to receive two-year offers on the open market, suggesting that the total guarantee could clock in below the two-year, $30.35MM extension Rays righty Tyler Glasnow inked with the Rays last summer. Though Glasnow was in a somewhat similar situation to Woodruff at the time of the deal, having missed the entire 2022 season to that point due to Tommy John surgery, Glasnow was nearing a return from the procedure when he signed on to a deal that would cover his age-29 and -30 campaigns. Woodruff, by contrast, is expected to miss anywhere between six and eighteen months, per Rosenthal, and would be signing on for his age-31 and -32 campaigns.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

  • Joining Woodruff on the free agent market after being non-tendered by the Tigers is right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, president of baseball operations tried to trade Turnbull ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline but was unable to find any takers. The decision to non-tender Turnbull, McCosky notes, comes after a long-running saga of issues between the club’s decision to option Turnbull to Triple-A back in May (a move that was later rescinded due to an at-the-time undisclosed neck injury) and subsequent decision to option him a second time in August while he was working his way back from the neck injury and subsequent toe issue. Tensions between the sides got to the point that McCosky notes Turnbull requested a trade ahead of the trade deadline on August 1 this past summer, though of course no deal wound up occurring back then. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be among the more interesting rebound candidates on the rotation market this offseason, given his flashes of success from 2020-21 when he posted a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 20 starts.
  • While the Cardinals are known to be in the market for multiple starting pitchers and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referenced discussions he had with right-hander Aaron Nola’s representation in conversation with Tom Ackerman of KMOX, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the club’s interest in Nola never reached the point where the club met with the right-hander or made a formal offer prior to him re-signing with the Phillies earlier today. Though Goold notes that other NL clubs were “actively engaged” in attempting to lure Nola away from Philadelphia, he adds that the Cardinals were not among them, despite indications earlier in the offseason that the club would be interested in Nola’s services this winter. While Nola is now off the market, he’s far from the only top-of-the-market pitching free agent the Cardinals have been connected to this offseason, Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been connected to St. Louis multiple times so far this offseason, while the club also has reported interested in NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery.

Phillies Reportedly “Moving Closer” To Re-Signing Aaron Nola

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10:36AM: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Phillies and Aaron Nola are “moving closer” on a reunion. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki also confirmed Nightengale’s report that talks between the sides have heated up in recent days.

9:55AM: The Phillies and right-hander Aaron Nola have both made clear a desire to see the righty ace return to Philadelphia on a long-term deal this offseason, dating back to before Nola was even officially a free agent. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated this morning that there’s reason for optimism regarding a deal coming together between the two sides, noting that contract talks between the sides have “gained significant momentum” in recent days.

That, of course, doesn’t mean that an agreement between the two sides is imminent or even necessarily close, but it’s a notable development nonetheless. After all, it was just last week that reporting from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated the sides were “not at all close” to a new deal while The Athletic’s Jayson Stark suggested that Phillies may not “go all out” to retain Nola, adding that interest from rival clubs made a seventh year on Nola’s contract possible. That’s a level the Phillies reportedly weren’t willing to go to in extension talks last spring, though it’s possible that the club has changed its tune since then.

Nightengale’s report goes on to suggest that Nola’s camp is seeking a seven-year, $210MM deal while the Phillies have countered with a six-year, $150MM offer at this point. Those price points are substantially closer than the four-to-five year pact that the Phillies reportedly offered Nola last offseason and the eight-year counter from Nola’s camp. That apparent progress in reaching a deal appears all the more encouraging with Nightengale suggesting that the sides are “getting close to finding a middle ground” between the two figures.

With one year and $60MM separating the two offers, there’s plenty of room for the sides to meet somewhere in the middle. Of note, the Phillies’ reported offer to Nola comes in just $12MM under the total guarantee left-hander Carlos Rodon secured from the Yankees last offseason over the same term, meaning virtually any movement from Philadelphia would allow Nola to secure a guarantee above that of Rodon. Speculatively speaking, the Phillies could offer Nola a higher AAV than Rodon over the same term if they’re unwilling to offer a seven-year deal to Nola, who will celebrate his 31st birthday next summer. Such a deal could fall in the $168MM to $180MM range in terms of total guarantee.

A seven-year pact would see Nola turn 37 in the final year of the deal. That’s an age the Phillies have shown a willingness to sign position players through: superstar first baseman Bryce Harper and marquee shortstop Trea Turner are signed through their age-38 and -40 seasons, respectively. That being said, the club hasn’t shown the same appetite for deals that would take pitchers into their late thirties. Zack Wheeler signed with the club on a five-year deal to become Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation, though that deal will see him hit the open market next offseason following his age-34 campaign. That’s the same age former Phillies lefty Cole Hamels was signed through when he extended with the club back in 2012.

Even a six-year pact would be breaking new ground for the Phillies; while the club signed Hall of Famer Roy Halladay through his age-36 season, that deal was for just three years and $60MM. That’s a far cry from the nine-figure deal Nola figures to land. What’s more, any movement from the Phillies’ current price point of six years and $150MM would take Nola’s contract above what MLBTR projected for the right-hander in our annual Top 50 free agents list.

Despite all of this, it’s easy to see why the Phillies would make such a plunge to retain Nola’s services. Nola’s spent nine years with the club serving as a homegrown ace since his debut with the club back in 2015. In that time, he’s compiled a career 3.72 ERA (113 ERA+) and 3.38 FIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate. Since his breakout 2018 campaign where he earned his first career All Star appearance and finished third in NL Cy Young award voting, Nola has been even more impressive with a 3.65 ERA and 28% strikeout rate. On top of that quality production, Nola is among the most durable pitchers in the entire sport: he’s thrown more than 180 innings and made at least 32 starts in each of the last five 162-game seasons. Only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings since the start of the 2018 campaign, while only Cole, Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have accumulated more fWAR than Nola’s 25.5 figure since then.

Should Nola and the Phillies ultimately come together on a new contract, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has previously indicated that the club’s starting rotation will be set for the 2024 campaign, likely taking Philadelphia out of the rotation market for the rest of the offseason. If a deal between the sides doesn’t get done, however, the club figures to be aggressive in looking to replace Nola with NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the club’s reported hypothetical targets. Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray are among the other potential top-of-the-rotation arms to be had on the free agent market, though Stark reports the club is “lukewarm” on Snell. The trade market could hold other alternatives to Nola for the Phils, such as Brewers ace Corbin Burnes or White Sox righty Dylan Cease.

Red Sox Exploring Top Of Rotation Market

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Starting pitching is a clear priority for the Red Sox. Boston’s new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged as much last week, although they’re certainly not alone in that pursuit.

That could extend to the top end of the market. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday that the Sox were targeting front-line starting pitching. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Boston is looking to add multiple starters this offseason. It stands to reason Breslow and his staff could look to pair an impact acquisition with a more affordable, if lower ceiling, addition.

Free agency offers a few possibilities. The Red Sox surely have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani, but he wouldn’t be a factor in the 2024 rotation after his elbow procedure. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are generally regarded as the next tier of free agent starters. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray is probably below that group in earning power because he’s 34 years old but fits in terms of short-term impact.

This afternoon, Ian Browne of MLB.com suggested in an appearance on the ITM podcast that the Boston front office prefers Montgomery to Snell or Nola (Twitter link via Steve Perrault). Sox executives chatted with Montgomery’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during last week’s GM Meetings, although they’re presumably targeting multiple Boras clients to varying degrees. (Snell is also represented by the Boras Corp.)

Montgomery turned in a 3.20 ERA through 188 2/3 innings between the Cardinals and Rangers. It was third straight sub-4.00 showing over 30+ starts. Montgomery chipped in 31 frames of 2.90 ERA ball during Texas’ run to a World Series. During the regular season, the 30-year-old southpaw struck out a near-average 21.4% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 6.2% clip.

He may not have the upside of Nola or Snell, each of whom misses more bats. Montgomery has better control than Snell and hasn’t had the spotty ERA or home run issues that have troubled Nola in two of the past three seasons, however. He also has the advantage of not requiring a signing team to surrender draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered Montgomery ineligible for the qualifying offer. Snell, Nola and Gray all received the QO. Yamamoto, of course, is not subject to the QO as a foreign professional.

Roster Resource projects the Sox for roughly $189MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s well below the $237MM base threshold, leaving plenty of potential spending room for Breslow and his staff. It’s also possible the Sox look to the trade market for rotation help. It’s difficult to envision the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow in division. Players like Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber could be available as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Boston’s current rotation mix is a high-variance unit. Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have all shown substantial upside.They also come with uncertainty to varying degrees. Houck and Whitlock might be better suited for relief. That could also be true of Pivetta, although he finished the 2023 season pitching very well over multiple innings. Sale has battled injuries and Bello seemed to wear down in the second half of his first full MLB season.

Phillies Rumors: Nola, Yamamoto, Snell, Hader

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Aaron Nola unsurprisingly rejected the Phillies’ one-year qualifying offer this week and is now squarely on the open market in search of a long-term contract. The Phils haven’t been shy about their hope to bring him back, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski saying in an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove last week that the team “loves” Nola and remains hopeful of working out a new contract (video link to the full nine-minute interview).

“We were not able to get him signed in spring training, which was unfortunate for us, but we understood his scenario,” Dombrowski said. “Now he’s in a spot where he has the ability to talk to 29 other clubs, so it doesn’t get any easier. But I do think there’s mutual interest in both parties trying to get something done. Hopefully for us we can get it done, because we absolutely love Aaron and what he does for the organization, not only as a person but on the field.”

More recently, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark took a look at the Phillies’ offseason decisions, writing this morning that other clubs don’t get the impression that the Phillies are willing to “go all out” to win a bidding war to retain Nola’s services. Some of that stems from the reportedly sizable gap the two parties faced in spring training. Some clubs feel the demand in Nola is substantial enough to push him to a seven-year contract, per Stark.

The Phillies ostensibly weren’t willing to go to that length (at least not at a premium annual value) back in spring, so at least logically speaking, there’s reason to doubt whether they’d be willing to do that now that Nola has pitched to a second pedestrian ERA in three seasons — albeit with still-pristine strikeout and walk rates and a big showing in the postseason.

Dombrowski was rather clear last week in asserting that the Phillies are only looking to add one starter. He stated in that MLBN appearance that if the Phils are able to re-sign Nola, their rotation will be “set.” The veteran baseball ops leader pointed to Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker as locks for the rotation, adding that his club very much likes lefty Cristopher Sanchez — understandably so. The 26-year-old southpaw logged a 3.44 ERA in 99 1/3 innings, striking out 24.2% of his opponents against a brilliant 4% walk rate. Sanchez kept the ball on the ground at a terrific 57% clip as well.

While Nola may be the Phillies’ preference, bidding is expected to be competitive given his durability, command, ability to miss bats and his broader track record of run prevention. His ERA marks in 2021 and 2023 haven’t stood out, but teams regularly have demonstrated that they’re comfortable evaluating and projecting pitchers on far more than just their rudimentary earned run averages. Add in a perennially weak Phillies defense and homer-friendly home park, and it’s easy to see why other teams might be even more willing to take a pair of mid-4.00s from Nola with a grain of salt.

If Nola lands elsewhere, the Phillies will have to pursue other options, as Dombrowski alluded to. Longtime Phillies beat writer Jim Salisbury said in a radio appearance yesterday on WIP’s Midday Show that the Phils have “legitimate” interest in Yamamoto (Twitter link, with audio). They’re not connected to the 25-year-old NPB ace as frequently as other big-market clubs given the team’s general lack of success at luring star players from NPB and the KBO, but that shouldn’t expressly rule them out from making a winning bid and persuading Yamamoto to sign in Philadelphia, of course. Even teams with storied histories of signing NPB stars had to begin that track record at some point, after all.

One name not believed to be especially high on their list, per Stark, is that of likely Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Stark reports that the Phils are “lukewarm” on the lefty, though an eventual run at him could still take place if multiple preferred options land elsewhere.

It’s a similar story with closer Josh Hader, albeit for different reasons. While MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested Monday the Phillies could be a match with Hader, Stark indicates that opposite, writing that the Phils prefer not to head into the season with a dedicated closer, which is surely a role that Hader will prioritize in free agency. He’s been exclusively a ninth-inning (or later) option for the Brewers and Padres in each of the past three seasons and hasn’t worked more than one inning in an appearance since Sept. 2019. Even if the Phillies love Hader — and presumably, just about every team loves him from a pure talent perspective — their preferred usage of him might not align with Hader’s own goals on the market.

Readers — Phillies fans in particular — will want to check out Stark’s column in full, as it contains multiple quotes from Dombrowski and plenty of context on the former Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox front office leader’s tendencies in the offseason.

Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

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