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Cardinals Rumors: Yamamoto, Gray, Trade Scenarios

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The Cardinals added the first two of what they expect to be at least three starting pitchers this week, agreeing to a reunion with veteran righty Lance Lynn on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $11MM and another one-year deal with Kyle Gibson worth $12MM. They’ll still look to add another arm, be it via free agency or trade. Among the more high-profile names they’re considering, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, are NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray. Goold’s report was published prior to the Cardinals’ agreement with Gibson, though it’s hard to imagine a one-year deal for a veteran innings eater would derail the club’s plans for higher-profile targets.

Pursuits of both right-handers were generally expected from a Cardinals club looking to add as many as three starting pitchers this winter — with at least one playoff-caliber arm among the presumed preferences. Goold has previously linked the Cards and Yamamoto, and he now writes that Yamamoto does not have any geographical preferences as he tests MLB free agency. He’s open to pitching on either coast or somewhere in between.

Despite his lack of MLB experience, the 25-year-old Yamamoto is widely projected to land the largest contract of any non-Shohei Ohtani pitcher this offseason. He’s considered by big league scouts to be a potential No. 1 or 2 starter in North American ball, and his combination of age and sterling track record make him an excessively rare type of free agent. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award, in three consecutive seasons and just wrapped up a career-best campaign with a 1.21 ERA. He’s posted a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons in NPB, fanning more than 27% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% walk rate during that stretch.

Bidding on Yamamoto is expected to be fierce, perhaps pushing north of $200MM. (MLBTR ranked Yamamoto second among this offseason’s free agents and predicted a nine-year, $225MM deal.) He’s already drawn interest from a wide array of teams, reportedly including the Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), D-backs, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs and surely more.

Gray, 34, would be a less-expensive but still high-profile upgrade to the St. Louis staff. He finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting this season on the heels of a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings for the AL Central-champion Twins. He rejected a qualifying offer at season’s end, so he’d cost the Cards a draft pick and $500K of their international bonus pool, though for a pitcher of his track record, that’s perhaps not a detriment.

Gray’s age figures to limit the length of offers he ultimately commands. It’d be somewhat surprising to see him sign for more than four years, as even a four-year pact would run through his age-37 season — an age at which teams have tended to cap long-term deals in free agency. Gray is also on the radar for the Phillies, Braves and Red Sox. The Twins have voiced that they’d love to keep Gray as well — and Gray has said publicly that interest in a return is mutual — but with Minnesota expected to scale back payroll by around $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding their television rights deal, it’s tough to envision them making the top bid.

In addition to their ongoing free-agent pursuits, the Cards are well-positioned to explore the trade market for potential rotation help. The team still generally has a glut of young position players, with more names on the roster than at-bats to go around. Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera simply don’t all have paths to regular playing time — particularly with veterans like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras locked into the infield corners and catching duties.

As has been the case dating back to the summer, the Cardinals appear open to trading O’Neill and Carlson, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. However, just as it was last offseason and this past summer, Nootbaar is expected to stay in St. Louis. The 26-year-old hit .261/.367/.418 last year and cemented himself as the team’s center fielder. Injuries have limited Nootbaar in his early career, but he’s proven he can draw walks at an elite level while displaying intriguing batted-ball metrics and showing enough pop to top 20 homers per year if he can avoid the injured list. Add in his speed and ability to play all over the outfield, and he’s a valuable player whom the Cards understandably view as a core piece.

It’s not long ago that Carlson was viewed as a core piece, but after a pair of lackluster seasons at the dish, it seems the Cards are largely ready to move on from the one-time top prospect. It was something of a surprise that the switch-hitting center fielder wasn’t traded at the deadline, and it’d be even more surprising if he went the whole offseason without changing hands. The 25-year-old Carlson has batted .230/.316/.364 over the past two seasons — a far cry from the .266/.343/.437 output he turned in back in 2021. With three seasons of club control remaining and a projected $1.8MM salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), he should still draw interest.

That said, it’s doubtful a trade of Carlson or O’Neill (a free agent next winter looking to rebound from a down year) can command the type of rotation upgrade that now looks increasingly necessary after signing Lynn and Gibson. If the Cards are indeed focused on upgrading the top half of their staff, they’d perhaps need to make more controllable members of the roster available. Woo writes, however, that the Cards “prefer to hang onto” infielders Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Presumably, first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson is in the mix of names that could be moved, but his own lackluster production through his first 400 MLB plate appearances (plus his limited defensive ceiling) has probably deflated his stock a bit.

All in all, it’s a bit surprising that the Cards jumped the market for a pair of back-end innings eaters. Doing so ensured the stable, bulk innings the front office no doubt coveted, but it also only ratchets up the pressure to come away with a more meaningful upgrade at the front of the group. “More moves to come,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today, per Goold.

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson

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The Yankees have discussed Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson as potential trade targets, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That duo are among a number of controllable Cardinals hitters who could find themselves in rumors over the offseason.

Donovan is the higher-profile and more desirable possibility. Over his two major league seasons, the South Alabama product is a .283/.381/.398 hitter. He has walked at an excellent 11.1% rate while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 14.7% clip. Donovan doesn’t have overwhelming power — he’s hit 16 home runs in 839 career plate appearances — but he’s a good pure hitter.

He also brings positional flexibility when healthy. He secured the National League Gold Glove award for utility players as a rookie, when saw notable action at second base, third base and in both corner outfield spots. He played mostly second, left field or first base in the early going in 2023. A forearm strain eventually prevented him from throwing, relegating him strictly to designated hitter in the middle of the summer. With the Cardinals reeling and selling off pieces at the trade deadline, Donovan shut things down entirely and underwent a season-ending surgery to repair the flexor tendon.

That could lead to some trepidation on the part of other teams regarding Donovan’s health. Yet there’s still plenty to like about the player. He’s a season away from qualifying for arbitration and is controllable for five years. He’s an above-average hitter who could either play regularly at the keystone or bounce around the diamond as needed.

The Yankees don’t have a need at second base. Gleyber Torres is on hand, and while New York could contemplate moving him before his final season of arbitration control, Oswald Peraza could step up. Donovan’s plus contact skills from the left-handed batter’s box would provide some balance to a Yankee lineup that skews towards right-handed power bats. New York general manager Brian Cashman suggested yesterday the club would prefer to add some lineup balance — preferably by bringing in an outfielder or two who fit the description. Donovan would be an option to see time in left field.

Burleson is strictly a corner outfielder. He struggled in his first extended major league action this past season, hitting .244/.300/.390 across 347 plate appearances. He struck out only 13% of the time but rarely walked and didn’t hit for much power. His season ended in September when he fractured his left thumb. Goold writes that he underwent surgery and is currently recovering.

A second-round pick in 2020, Burleson has a much better minor league track record than his middling ’23 campaign would indicate. He’s a .306/.356/.486 hitter over 641 Triple-A plate appearances. There’s risk considering he hasn’t yet shown the ability to hit MLB pitching. That could make him a more realistic trade option than Donovan for a St. Louis team looking to reload, however. At the very least, the asking price on Burleson figures to be quite a bit lower.

He doesn’t have a clear path to immediate playing time on a team that also rosters Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar. The Cards could keep him in the minors if they don’t find a deal to their liking. They could also trade one of their more experienced outfielders, of course. Carlson was a reported Yankee target back before the deadline.

There’s nothing to suggest the Yankees and Cardinals have any kind of traction on a trade, to be clear. St. Louis has reportedly set high asking prices on Donovan, in particular, in prior trade windows. The Yankees are surely casting a wide net as they identify targets in their search for outfield help. At the same time, it hints at the possibilities available for St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and his front office.

The Cardinals have been clear about their desire to bring in three starting pitchers this winter. It’s unlikely they’ll accomplish all of that via free agency. Mozeliak acknowledged yesterday the club would consider moving a hitter to acquire big league ready or upper minors rotation help (relayed by John Denton of MLB.com).

Cardinals Place Alec Burleson On Injured List With Thumb Fracture

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Cardinals outfielder Alec Burleson left yesterday’s game with a left thumb fracture, per John Denton of MLB.com. He jammed it into the third base bag on a head-first slide and initially stayed in the game but subsequently headed for an X-ray which revealed the fracture. The club today placed Burleson on the 10-day injured list, recalling catcher Ivan Herrera in a corresponding move.

The details on his expected absence haven’t been announced, but Denton reports that Burleson is likely done for the year, which is hardly surprising given the nature of the injury and the short amount of time left in the season. The Cardinals are buried in the standings with just over a week left to play, giving them little incentive to rush an injured player back out onto the field.

If his season is indeed done, Burleson will finish the year with eight home runs in 347 plate appearances. He only walked in 6.6% of those trips to the plate but his 13% strikeout rate is well below league average. The overall batting line of .244/.300/.390 amounts to a wRC+ of 89, indicating his production was 11% below league average.

It’s possible there’s a bit of bad luck in there, given his .261 batting average on balls in play and 60th percentile average exit velocity. But his barrel rate was only 5.9% this year, which is in the 24th percentile of qualified hitters, indicating he hasn’t been squaring the ball up with enough frequency. Given that he’s not a strong defender, he’ll have to produce better offensive results going forward, but he’s still just 24 years old and could still have room to grow.

The club is facing an interesting winter, as they are hoping to add three starting pitchers for next year’s rotation. Some of that work may be done via free agency, but they will also have to consider trading someone from their crowded position player mix. Burleson is part of an outfield mix picture could include Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Richie Palacios and Juan Yepez. Some of those players can also play the infield, but the Cards have Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt at the corners as Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman are also options for the middle infield.

That’s more players than jobs, which should push the front office to have many discussions in the coming months about which of these guys can be exchanged for pitching. Burleson drew some interest from other clubs at the deadline but ultimately stayed with the Cardinals. Perhaps those talks will pick up again but Burleson also still has a full slate of options, meaning the club could consider keeping him around as depth.

In other Cardinals’ news, manager Oli Marmol says Adam Wainwright won’t start during this weekend’s series in San Diego, per Denton. The 42-year-old righty recorded his 200th career win on Monday and would have been on schedule to pitch this weekend but Marmol said, if Wainwright makes another start, it will be in front of the home crowd. “We’re going to sit down. … We’ve started that conversation and we’ve decided that he will not take the start in San Diego,” Marmol said. “We’ll walk through what it looks like to finish the season, but we’ve yet to make the decision.”

Wainwright is retiring at season’s end and the club is playing out the string on a lost season. Since he’s also finished his personal mission of getting that 200th victory, it’s possible he’ll start winding down with that special night on Monday as his final game, but he may also make one more appearance in St. Louis. After the series in San Diego this weekend, the Cards head to Milwaukee before wrapping up the season at home against the Reds.

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Alec Burleson Drawing Trade Interest

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The Cardinals are going into the trade deadline as sellers and rival clubs are calling about outfielder Alec Burleson, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

It’s been a disappointing season in St. Louis. Despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations, they currently sport a record of 46-59, with only percentage points separating them from the Pirates and last place in the National League Central. They are 10.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and further back in the division.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted weeks ago that the club would have to make moves this summer that would improve the club’s chances in 2024. That makes it seem highly likely that impending free agents like Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks will wind up traded for players with more ability to help the Cards in the long-term.

Burleson wouldn’t fit into that category, as he’s on pace to surpass one-year of service time this year, meaning he’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign. But it’s quite apparent that the Cardinals have an outfield logjam, which will need to be cleared one way or another. The regular playing time is going to Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Tyler O’Neill right now, with Burleson and Dylan Carlson also in the mix.

That’s already crowded enough as it is, but it gets worse. Tommy Edman was pushed from shortstop into the outfield by the resurgence of Paul DeJong. He’s currently on the injured list but is beginning a rehab assignment shortly, putting him back in the picture. The Cardinals are expected to move DeJong in the coming days but one of their top prospects, Masyn Winn, is a shortstop currently playing in Triple-A. Whenever he gets an audition at the big league level, Edman could be back on the grass.

Brendan Donovan also got pushed into the outfield this year with Nolan Gorman taking over regular duties at second base. Donovan currently has a flexor tendon injury in his right arm that prevents him from playing the field, limiting him to designated hitter duties for now, but he should be in the outfield mix again at some point.

Given all of those options, it seems like something has to give. It was recently reported that O’Neill is unlikely to be traded, though Goold adds that the Cards are open to it but the proposals have been underwhelming. That’s not surprising given that he’s been posting diminished production while battling injuries in the past two years. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs while slashing .286/.352/.560, stealing 15 bases in the process. But since then, he’s made multiple trips to the injured list and has hit just .234/.312/.385. He returned from the IL over a week ago and Goold adds that the Cards plan to play him as often as possible, both to assess his health and see if he can improve his trade stock. He’s hit a strong .323/.432/.452 since being activated but in just nine games.

If O’Neill can’t get a nice trade return, then perhaps the Cardinals will have to move someone else in order to clear some space. Carlson has already received plenty of interest and could perhaps be the most likely to be moved, but rival clubs are apparently intrigued by Burleson enough to put in some calls.

The 24-year-old Burleson hasn’t hit much in the majors yet, having slashed .230/.284/.370 since first being called up last year. But that’s come in a fairly limited role, as he’s only received 282 plate appearances since being recalled in September of last year. Before getting called up, he was hitting .331/.372/.532 in Triple-A, producing a 137 wRC+. He was generally considered one of the club’s top 10 prospects in recent years on account of that bat.

Though he hasn’t yet broken out at the big league level, perhaps he would have a better chance of doing so on a club with the ability to give him regular playing time. It’s therefore pretty understandable why clubs would put in a call. He’s still a couple of years away from qualifying for arbitration and even further from free agency. That means the Cardinals could certainly hang onto him, but with the aforementioned crowding, perhaps an intriguing offer makes them pull the trigger.

The Cardinals figure to be one of the most interesting teams between now and the August 1 deadline, with plenty of impending free agents who make for logical trade candidates. They also have a cluster of controllable position players and seem likely to move at least one of them between now and Tuesday.

Cardinals To Recall Jordan Walker

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The Cardinals are planning to recall top outfield prospect Jordan Walker from Triple-A Memphis, reports Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Twitter link). He’ll be back in the majors for Friday’s series opener in Pittsburgh. The Cards will presumably announce their corresponding active roster move tomorrow.

Walker returns for a second MLB stint. The 21-year-old broke camp with St. Louis and started in right field on Opening Day. He wasn’t completely overmatched in his first month. Walker made headlines for a 12-game hitting streak early on and hit a roughly league average .274/.321/.397 through 20 contests.

Nevertheless, St. Louis made the decision to send him back to the minors at the end of April. Walker’s defensive marks weren’t good and his solid slash line belied mounting chase and ground-ball rates at the dish. The demotion wasn’t especially alarming considering Walker’s youth and that St. Louis had jumped him directly from Double-A to the majors in the first place.

While the former first-round pick got off to a bit of a slow start in Memphis, he’s turned things on of late. Walker is hitting .267/.376/.433 over his past 23 games, drawing free passes at a robust 11.9% clip against a decent 21.1% strikeout rate. His 44.6% grounder percentage in Triple-A is well shy of the 60.4% rate at which he put the ball on the ground in the majors.

The Cardinals determined he’s ready for another look at the highest level. St. Louis’ outfield has thinned over the past few weeks. Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson both landed on the injured list since Walker was optioned. O’Neill seems without a clear return timetable as he battles lingering back issues.

Utilityman Brendan Donovan has gotten the bulk of the right field work lately but can bounce around the diamond. Primary left fielder Alec Burleson has struggled to a .237/.289/.397 line on the year, including a meager .245/.293/.340 showing in May. The Cardinals are carrying Óscar Mercado on the MLB roster as a depth outfielder but have only given him five starts since selecting his contract two weeks ago. Mercado’s ability to back up Lars Nootbaar in center field gives him more defensive value than Burleson, though the Cards gave Tommy Edman his first career start there earlier in the week.

Walker will surely be in the lineup on a regular basis now that he’s back in the majors, probably most directly impacting Burleson’s playing time. While he’ll again be paid at the MLB minimum rate and collect service time, the option is likely to push back his path to free agency. Walker spent over a month in the minors and won’t get the 172 days on an MLB roster that’d get him a full service year this season.

Unless he earns “bonus” service time by finishing in the top two in NL Rookie of the Year balloting, he won’t be on track to reach free agency until after the 2029 season. If he’s in the majors from here on out, he’d qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player following the ’25 campaign. Future minor league assignments could alter that path, of course. This is the first of three years in which Walker can be optioned.

The Ongoing Cardinals Outfield Battle

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Even though the Cardinals traded away Harrison Bader last summer, they are still dealing with a crowded outfield mix. That’s thanks to the emergence of young players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker. Those two joined Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson in the battle for playing time. That’s five guys for three spots, since infielder Nolan Gorman has been taking the designated hitter slot on most days, with Willson Contreras getting a couple of nods there as well when not catching.

The crowding evidently got to be a bit too much, as Walker was surprisingly optioned down to the minors this week. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently addressed the move, as relayed by John Denton of MLB.com (Twitter links). Mozeliak said the move was about getting some more consistency from this group, hoping that subtracting one member would make it easier for everyone to get into a good rhythm.

The results of this jockeying for playing time will have consequences for the club in the short term, as they are off to a rough 10-16 start and will need to gain ground in the coming months. There will also be long-term ramifications, since all of those players are still under club control next year. If the Cards find themselves outside the playoff picture in July, they could consider moving someone and still have plenty of options to fill the outfield. And , as we saw last year with the Bader deal, they could make a trade even when they are in contention. Those decisions will surely be based on how the individuals perform in the next few months, so let’s take a look at where things stand now.

Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill is the oldest and most experienced of the bunch, turning 28 in June and having debuted in 2018. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he can be controlled via arbitration for one more year before reaching free agency after the 2024 season.

He has shown the ability to be an excellent all-around player, especially in 2021. O’Neill hit 34 home runs that year and slashed .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 144. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his glovework in left field, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs. That currently stands out as a career year for O’Neill, who was slowed by injuries last year. He only got into 96 games and had a diminished .228/.308/.392 batting line (101 wRC+). This year, he’s hitting just .256/.318/.385 for a wRC+ of 98.

O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol got in a public spat earlier in the year when the latter accused the former of improper hustle and spoke to the media about it. O’Neill disagreed with the sentiment that he wasn’t giving his all and also didn’t seem to care for the issue being aired so openly. He was benched for one game but has been getting regular playing time since, seeming to suggest there’s no lingering ill will from the dust-up. He got some time in center field earlier in the year but has been back in left for the past couple of weeks.

Some observers have pointed to the fact that Bader was also criticized by Marmol for a lack of hustle last year, just about six weeks before he was flipped to the Yankees, therefore suggesting the writing is on the wall for O’Neill. That’s pure speculation, but O’Neill is the most logical trade candidate since he’s the oldest and closest to free agency. However, dealing him would be selling low unless he can regain some of that excellent form he showed a couple of years ago.

Lars Nootbaar

Nootbaar is in his third major league season but was frequently optioned in the first couple, meaning he’s played just 178 games thus far. He initially hovered around league average at the plate but has taken steps forward over the past year or so, seeming to thrive when he got more regular playing time. Bader went on the IL June 27 of last year with plantar fasciitis, moving Carlson over to center and opening right field for Nootbaar. Bader was then traded before even recovering from that ailment. Since that time, Nootbaar has walked almost as much as he’s been punched out, getting a free pass 17.2% of the time compared to an 18.4% strikeout rate. That’s led to a .244/.373/.478 batting line and a 141 wRC+. His strong results at the plate are backed up by Statcast, who ranked him in the 90th percentile last year in terms of average exit velocity, 80th in hard hit rate and 85th in barrel rate.

That strong work at the plate is accompanied by excellent glovework as well. Nootbaar has played all three outfield positions and has tallied two Outs Above Average, six Defensive Runs Saved and a 6.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. In the comments from Mozeliak linked above, he said Nootbaar will be the regular center fielder going forward.

Nootbaar seems like a solid long-term piece for the Cardinals given his well-rounded contributions. He’s currently 25 years old and has between one and two years of service time. He won’t reach arbitration until after 2024 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2027. Over the winter, both the Athletics (in Sean Murphy discussions) and Marlins (in Pablo Lopez talks) brought up Nootbaar as a target of interest, but the Cardinals rebuffed those overtures.

Alec Burleson

Unlike O’Neill and Nootbaar, Burleson has fewer dimensions to his game. His defense is generally considered subpar, even when limited to the corners, and Statcast pegs him in the 24th percentile in terms of sprint speed. He’s seen a bit of time at first base, dating back to last season.

The appeal of Burleson is his bat, which has the potential to hit for both contact and power. Outside of a brief debut in High-A in 2021, he’s generally been difficult to strike out both in the majors and the minors. He’s had only 134 major league plate appearances so far but has been punched out at just a 14.2% rate, well below this year’s 23% league average. He’s hit three home runs so far and currently has a line of .236/.295/.444. That’s just slightly above average, translating to a 104 wRC+, but that’s not bad for a player still getting his feet wet in the majors. He hit 20 home runs in 109 Triple-A games last year and slashed .331/.372/.532 (137 wRC+).

Burleson is just 24 years old and has less than a year of service, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until 2028. He could be a long-term option in the corners for St. Louis, but he isn’t an exact match for their typical M.O. of placing an emphasis on defense.

Dylan Carlson

Carlson was considered one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago, with Baseball America having him in the top 10 league-wide in 2020 and 2021. He got regular playing time over the past two years and proved himself to be a serviceable player with average-ish hitting and defense. Carlson hit .253/.331/.412 for a wRC+ of 107 over 2021 and 2022, walking and striking out at roughly league average rates. All three of DRS, OAA and UZR considered his glovework average or slightly above.

He’s been the one most squeezed by the logjam so far, only starting 10 of the club’s 26 games. The part-time role hasn’t suited him, as he’s hitting just .250/.308/.333 on the season for a wRC+ of 83. Perhaps he is the player with the most to gain from Walker’s demotion, as he will hopefully get some more trips to the plate and get into a better groove. He’s 24 years old but has between two and three years of service time already. He’s on pace to qualify for arbitration this winter and reach free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

Jordan Walker

Walker parlayed a hot spring into an Opening Day roster spot despite being just 20 years old, turning 21 in May. He stayed hot to start the season, getting a hit in his first 12 games while slashing .319/.360/.489. He cooled off a bit from there, hitting just .192/.250/.231 since then. That latter line is a tiny sample of eight games, but the club still felt the best decision for everyone involved was for him to get regular at-bats in the minors and to spread his playing time around to the others. Between both of those stretches, he only walked in 3.8% of his trips to the plate.

Walker is still one of the best prospects in the game and will no doubt be back at some point. An injury to one of the other outfielders would quickly make space for him. He was on track to earn a full year of service this year but could wind up shy of that, depending how long he’s down on the farm.

Juan Yepez

Yepez has mashed in the minors over the past few years, hitting .252/.343/.487 in Double-A and .281/.362/.575 in Triple-A. He’s seemingly capable of carrying that over to the big leagues as well, having hit .257/.297/.453 for a wRC+ of 111 in 286 plate appearances. The problem is that he’s not considered a strong runner or defender. He could be a useful bat-first player in a corner spot, but the Cards have Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at first and third, in addition to the crowded outfield mix. Yepez is 25 years old and still has a couple of option years, meaning the Cards can keep him as a depth piece for quite a while if they so choose.

Moises Gomez

Gomez isn’t considered a great runner or defender, nor does he have strong bat-to-ball skills. His standout tool is his power. Gomez hit 39 home runs last year in 120 games between Double-A and Triple-A, but also struck out in 34.7% of his plate appearances. He was added to the 40-man roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency but is off to a slow start this year. Through 20 Triple-A games, he’s cut his strikeout rate to 24.7% but has gone deep just once and is walking just 4.7% of the time. His .234/.282/.351 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 58.

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There’s plenty of talent amid these options and it seems entirely possible that a trade will be on the table this summer, whether the Cardinals climb back into contention or not. They could easily move one of these players for some pitching, just like they did with Bader last year, and still have good options for filling out the lineup card every night. The club’s front office has just over three months to decide how to play it.

Cardinals To Select Jordan Walker

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells reporters, including MLB.com’s John Denton, that top prospect Jordan Walker has made the Opening Day roster in St. Louis. Walker, who is not on the 40-man roster, will require a corresponding move to be added. According to Denton, Mozeliak expects this move to come on Wednesday or Thursday. Outfielder Alec Burleson and left-handers Zack Thompson and Packy Naughton have also made the big league roster, according to Mozeliak.

Walker, 20, is a consensus top prospect in the sport, with MLB.com ranking him as the 4th best in the game. Should Walker finish in the top three of NL Rookie of the Year voting or the top five of NL MVP voting this year, the Cardinals will receive an extra draft pick thanks to Walker’s inclusion on the Opening Day roster.

That’s not out of the realm of possibility for Walker, a career .310/.388/.525 hitter in the minors who has yet to play above the Double-A level in his career. In skipping Triple-A entirely for Walker, the Cardinals are giving the potential superstar a notable vote of confidence. With Walker’s native third base occupied by 2023 NL MVP finalist Nolan Arenado, Walker figures to factor into the club’s outfield and DH mix alongside Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson.

Fellow Top 100 prospect Burleson, meanwhile, struggled in his 2022 big league debut, slashing .188/.264/.271 in 53 plate appearances. With that being said, he dominated to a .905 OPS in 109 games at the Triple-A level last season, leaving plenty of room for a big breakout for the 24 year-old.

Following St. Louis’s decision to option lefty Genesis Cabrera earlier today, it’s of little surprise to see Thompson and Naughton make the roster. Thompson dominated to a 2.08 ERA in 34 2/3 innings for the Cardinals last year, and though Naughton didn’t fare as well with a 4.78 ERA in 32 big league innings, he did dominate in Triple-A last year.

Big Hype Prospects: Luciano, Jung, Burleson, Hence, Naylor

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we bounce between the low and upper minors to check in on a couple handfuls of notable prospects.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Marco Luciano, 20, SS/3B, SFG (A+)
222 PA, 10 HR, .268/.342/.470

Once considered the “next big thing,” Luciano has turned out to be less athletic than originally believed. When he added strength prior to 2021, he lost speed and flexibility. He still has a bright future, but there are a number of questions related to his future position, ability to make contact, and work ethic. Teams can overlook questionable range at shortstop, but Luciano also suffers from an errant arm, making a move down the defensive spectrum more likely. The work ethic concerns seem overblown to me – sometimes players draw negative reviews because they take their failures in stride. Fans, in particular, often equate tantrums with caring and wistful shakes of the head with a lack of care. Scouts too sometimes rush to judgment.

He only has 249 plate appearances this season because he missed over two months with a lower back strain. Since returning on August 4, he’s batting .243/.341/.419 in 85 plate appearances. All told, he’s performed on par with expectations for a 20-year-old top prospect in High-A. His swing is geared for high exit velocity, fly ball contact. He profiles as a future 30-homer threat. Keep an eye on his strikeout rate as he advances into the upper minors next season.

Josh Jung, 24, 3B, TEX (MLB)
(AAA) 106 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, .273/.321/.525

Listed as a “snub” in last week’s edition of Big Hype Prospects because he wasn’t yet in the Majors, the Rangers have finally called upon their top prospect. Jung was on the cusp of an Opening Day assignment with Texas before an injury held him out until late July. Curiously, he’s actually performed poorly lately. After an initial thrashing of Triple-A pitching, he’s batting just .197/.232/.288 (.300 BABIP) over his last 69 plate appearances. Much of his recent woes can be boiled down to a 1.4 percent walk rate and 36.2 percent strikeout rate, both of which are uncharacteristic.

Jung is a hard contact machine that uses all fields. He generates substantial pull-side power. His overall profile is reminiscent of peak Josh Donaldson – a plus defender who can hit for average and power with a mid-lineup role. Given his ongoing slump, his debut might include a hiccup or two.

Alec Burleson, 23, OF, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 470 PA, 20 HR, 4 SB, .331/.372/.532

With Dylan Carlson on the injured list, the Cardinals get an opportunity to decide if Burleson will be a part of their postseason roster. A 2020 draftee, he raced through the minors without any setbacks. He’s a free-swinger with above-average plate coverage and an ability to use all fields. He’s a below-average runner who might best fit as a designated hitter long term. We might find his aggression is exploited by Major League pitchers. While his swing is often described as uncomplicated or simplistic – a trait usually associated with middling or worse power – Burleson is able to generate plenty of pop. The next step in his development is to improve his swing decisions.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (A)
52.1 IP, 13.93 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 1.38 ERA

The Cardinals have printed outfielders in recent years, and they’ve historically done well developing pitchers too. Hence has drool-worthy stats in Low-A, though it’s worth noting he’s pitching once every seven days. When he does appear, his outings are brief. He faced 16 batters on September 7 which also happens to be a career-high. He usually sees between 11 and 13 batters. It’s assumed Hence is being handled carefully due to his string-bean frame. He’s listed at 6’1’’ and 175 pounds. The FanGraphs crew compares his appearance to Triston McKenzie (he’s listed 6’5’’ and 165 pounds). For now, we can set workload concerns aside, but he’ll eventually need to work on a five-day schedule and face 20 or more hitters.

Hence wields a fastball and curve that fit the current meta. He works up in the zone with the heater and drops in the curve. It’s worth noting that hitters typically adjust to popular pitching strategies within a couple seasons. Hence might find his approach is less effective in 2025 than similar pitchers are experiencing today. He’s still working to develop a third offering. His changeup remains a work in progress per reports, drawing adjectives ranging from nasty to inconsistent.

Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 461 PA, 17 HR, 20 SB, .259/.397/.480

Naylor was generally well-regarded as of 2019. After the lost COVID year, he played so poorly in 2021 that some evaluators considered him a bust. Case in point, Baseball America ranked him 59th overall in their August update. When FanGraphs profiled Cleveland’s system in mid-April, Naylor ranked 28th – that’s just among Guardian farm hands.

He responded this season by thriving in Double-A and more than holding his own in Triple-A. The brother of fellow Guardian Josh Naylor, Bo has a discipline-forward approach that includes decent pop and a surprising feel for contact. As a left-handed hitter, he can take advantage of the friendlier aspects of Progressive Field’s park factors. The profile offers shades of former Guardians catching prospect Carlos Santana. Naylor happens to be a plus defender behind the dish, making a move down the defensive spectrum unnecessary. Like Santana, Naylor is liable to combine a poor batting average with a plus on base and slugging percentages. He has above-average foot speed for a catcher.

Five More

Shane Baz, TBR (23): Baz has just 40.1 big league innings split across two seasons so he’s still technically a prospect – and debatably the top pitching prospect. He’s eyeing a late-September or early-October return from an elbow sprain. At his best, he has a potent four-pitch repertoire though he still has room to improve his consistency. If he appears again this season, it will likely be as a high-leverage reliever.

Robert Hassell, WSH (20): A contact of mine casually mentioned a lot of the shine has come off Hassell this season. Despite struggling with the Nationals High-A affiliate, Washington opted to promote Hassell to Double-A based on his larger success with the Padres High-A club. Since arriving in Double-A, he’s batting .221/.310/.312 with a homer and a steal in 87 plate appearances. Personally, I’m starting to get Andrew Benintendi vibes. The swing is “sweet” but the quality of contact is not.

Logan O’Hoppe, LAA (22): O’Hoppe was the standout hitting prospect in the Phillies system heading into the trade deadline. However, Double-A Reading is notoriously hitter-friendly. It was unclear if his breakout was a product of the venue. Fast-forward 101 plate appearances, and it sure seems like O’Hoppe is the real deal. Since joining the Angels, he’s batting .297/.475/.689 with nine home runs and more walks than strikeouts.

Zac Veen, COL (20): Veen thrashed High-A pitching to the tune of .269/.368/.439 with 11 home runs in 400 plate appearances. The carrying trait, however, was his 50 steals in 54 attempts. He earned a promotion to Double-A where he’s made another 108 plate appearances. He’s struggling to adjust to the level – possibly due to fatigue. In 108 plate appearances, he’s batting .196/.269/.258 with one home run and four steals in nine attempts. It’s not super common for 20-year-olds to receive 508 plate appearances. The fatigue explanation passes a smell test.

Noelvi Marte, CIN, (20): It’s been a while since we last checked in on the contentious shortstop. He’s continued to perform well with the Reds, making incremental gains to his plate discipline and contact rates. He’s batting .292/.397/.443 in 126 plate appearances with Cincy’s High-A affiliate. Where he’ll eventually fit in a system that includes the inestimable Elly De La Cruz remains to be seen, but he’s certainly trending towards a long Major League career. Across both franchises, he has 520 plate appearances with a .279/.371/.458 triple-slash, 19 home runs, and 23 steals.

Cardinals Place Dylan Carlson On IL, Select Alec Burleson

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves today, placing outfielder Dylan Carlson on the 10-day injured with a left thumb sprain. His spot on the roster has gone to fellow outfielder Alec Burleson. Since Burleson wasn’t previously on the 40-man roster, outfielder Conner Capel has been designated for assignment to open a spot.

Burleson, 23, was selected by the Cardinals 70th overall in the 2020 draft. There were no minor leagues for him to play in that year due to the pandemic, but he took off in 2021. He started in High-A and mashed his way up to Double-A after just 11 games. In 63 games with the Springfield Cardinals, he hit .288/.333/.488, producing a wRC+ of 116. That was enough to get him up to Triple-A for the end of the season, his third level of the year.

While Burleson struggled in his first taste of Triple-A, he’s dominated here in 2022. In 109 games with the Memphis Redbirds, he’s hit 20 home runs while striking out in only 14.3% of his plate appearances. His slash line on the year is .331/.372/.532, leading to a wRC+ of 138.

Thanks to his strong performance in the minors, Burleson has been creeping up prospect lists since his draft. Last year, Baseball America ranked him the #26 prospect in the Cards’ system, before bumping him up to #10 at the start of this year and #4 at the midseason update. BA also considers him the #66 prospect in the entire league.

As for Carlson, it’s unclear when or how he sustained his injury, as he entered last night’s game in the eighth inning as a pinch hitter. The club has not yet provided any information on how long they expect him to be out. He’s hitting .240/.316/.386 for the year, producing a wRC+ of 102. He’s played mostly center field this season but has seen Tyler O’Neill take over the bulk of the playing time up the middle lately. Burleson has mostly played left field in the minors, with a bit of time in right as well. He’ll try to replace Carlson’s bat and take some corner outfield time but likely won’t be an option in center, leaving that spot for O’Neill and Ben DeLuzio.

As for Capel, 25, he was drafted by Cleveland but came to the Cardinals in the 2018 trade that sent Oscar Mercado the other way. He was selected to the big league roster for the first time this June, producing a tepid batting line in a tiny sample of just 19 plate appearances. In 87 Triple-A games, he’s hit .258/.361/.425 for a 112 wRC+. He’s shown strong work at the plate in that stretch, striking out in just 16.4% of his plate appearances while walking in 13.3% of them. He’s also popped 1o homers and stolen 19 bases.

Despite some signs of optimism there, it seems Capel has been nudged out of the plans in St. Louis. Since the trade deadline has passed, the Cards will place him on outright waivers or release waivers in the coming days. Given his full slate of options and limited service time, he could prove to be an intriguing option for the 29 other clubs.

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