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Alex Bregman

The Best Fits For Alex Bregman

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MLBTR has looked at the potential markets for Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes in respective posts for Front Office subscribers. We'll continue that series with a look at the winter's #3 free agent.

Alex Bregman could land the largest contract for a non-Soto position player. MLBTR predicted the two-time World Series champ would get a seven-year pact valued at $182MM. Getting to seven years would distinguish Bregman from Matt Chapman, who would've been the offseason's other top option at third base had he not re-signed with the Giants for six years and $151MM. Bregman is a year younger and has a more consistent offensive track record, though he's not quite at Chapman's level defensively.

There have been a few small hints about how Bregman's market could shake out. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic suggested last month that the third baseman's camp might look for a deal that resembles Manny Machado's 11-year, $350MM extension from Spring Training 2023 rather than general market projections of a contract in the $175-200MM range.

Bregman getting to $300MM+ would be a huge surprise, though. Machado was already guaranteed $180MM at the time of his extension, so that contract amounted to five years and $170MM in new money. The Machado deal also came at a time when the Padres were signing off on a number of huge contracts during Peter Seidler's ownership tenure.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported a few weeks ago that the Astros were hoping to retain Bregman on something like a six-year, $156MM pact. That hasn't gotten a deal done, so his camp seems to be aiming higher. At the time, Nightengale wrote that Bregman and his representation at the Boras Corporation were at least looking to crack the $200MM mark.

Let's take a look at what teams could be involved.

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Astros Have Shown Interest In Jorge Polanco As Fallback At Third Base

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The Astros are focused on re-signing Alex Bregman but aren’t putting all of their eggs in that basket. They’ve been linked to Willy Adames — another likely nine-figure free agent — and have also checked in with a few contingency plans, including free agent Jorge Polanco, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Polanco, who’s coming off a down year in Seattle and underwent knee surgery in October, has typically been a middle infielder, first coming to the majors as a shortstop in Minnesota before moving over to second base due to defensive concerns. The 31-year-old does have a bit of experience at the hot corner, having logged a combined 180 innings there in two different seasons with the Twins (plus another 128 frames there as a minor leaguer). He played 103 innings at third base as recently as 2023 in Minnesota.

The 2024 season was a disaster for Polanco, who’s battled knee troubles for several seasons and saw those ongoing troubles culminate in offseason surgery. His lone year in Seattle produced a .213/.296/.355 slash in 118 games — a far cry from the combined .270/.338/.455 output Polanco posted in six years with the Twins from 2018-23. Polanco still cracked 16 home runs for the Mariners in 2024, but his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 29.2% and he posted some of the worst defensive grades of his career (-10 Outs Above Average).

Polanco underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee in early October. He’d previously had IL stints for that same knee in both 2023 and 2022, missing about seven weeks of action combined between the two instances. Given the recent knee struggles and ugly results in 2024, Polanco is likely ticketed for a one-year deal. At the very least, he’d be an affordable alternative to Bregman/Adames who could allow the ’Stros to perhaps spend elsewhere.

At this stage of his career, however, asking Polanco to hold down third base regularly feels like a stretch. He’ll turn 32 next July, is coming off that knee surgery and already ranks poorly in terms of arm strength on his throws in the infield, per Statcast. While throws from second base and third base can’t simply be compared in apples-to-apples fashion — throws from third base are inherently going to come in at a higher velocity — Polanco is well below average even when compared strictly to other second basemen; his average velocity ranked 48th among the 63 players who made at least 100 throws as a second baseman in 2024. Perhaps a healthier lower half will lead to better life on his throws moving forward, but the recent trends don’t bode well for a move to third base.

That said, it’s a pretty thin market at the hot corner this offseason — at least in free agency. Bregman is the clear top option, though some teams might prefer Adames, who’s reportedly willing to move off shortstop in the right setting. Virtually everyone beyond Bregman and Adames falls into the rebound candidate bucket, with Polanco joining names like Josh Rojas, Gio Urshela, Yoan Moncada, Brandon Drury and Luis Urias (among others). The trade market includes Alec Bohm and the pricier Nolan Arenado, to name a couple of the most prominent candidates.

Blue Jays Interested In Alex Bregman, Luis Severino

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The Blue Jays are known to be in the Juan Soto bidding, but like all teams, they have to consider backup plans. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet takes a look at their Soto pursuit and notes that they also have interest in Max Fried, Luis Severino, Anthony Santander and Alex Bregman. MLBTR has previously covered their interest in Fried and Santander.

Bregman, 31, is one of the top free agents available this winter. He has a career batting line of .272/.366/.483, which translates to a 135 wRC+, indicating he’s been 35% better than league average at the plate overall. His strikeout rate hasn’t been higher than 13.6% in any of the past six full seasons, barely half of league average. His walk rate dipped a bit in 2024 but has been above par for most of his career.

He also gets strong grades for his third base defense and is willing to move to second if he signs with a club that has a greater need there. His clubhouse and leadership qualities are often lauded by those who have played with him. MLBTR predicted Bregman for a seven-year deal worth $182MM at the start of the offseason. It’s well established that the Astros want him back, but he’s also been connected to the Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies and now Blue Jays.

For the Jays, third base and second base are both fairly unsettled. Ernie Clement was the primary option at the hot corner in 2024 and he had a serviceable season. His .263/.284/.408 batting line was slightly below average, translating to a 94 wRC+. But he also stole 12 bases and got strong grades for his glovework at third and shortstop, as well as brief looks at second base and left field.

The total package added up to 2.2 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and Clement is still on the roster, but he shouldn’t stand in the way of someone like Bregman coming aboard. If Bregman took over as the everyday guy at the hot corner, it could move Clement into a utility role, which could still allow him to contribute fairly regularly.

At second base, Spencer Horwitz and Davis Schneider got decent chunks of the playing time, alongside the now-departed Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Horwitz has hit well in his major league career so far but is not a natural second baseman, only moving there since his first base spot is taken by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A lot of the designated hitter plate appearances went to Justin Turner in 2024, who is no longer with the team. Perhaps that frees up Horwitz and Guerrero to share that spot and first base in 2025, depending on what other moves the Jays make this winter. Schneider is coming off a down season and can also play left field.

The Jays have some other players on the roster capable of playing either third or second base, including Addison Barger, Orelvis Martínez, Will Wagner and Leo Jiménez, but no one in that group has even 70 games of major league experience. With the Jays looking to quickly bounce back from a poor 2024 campaign, there’s logic in going for an established major leaguer like Bregman as opposed to hoping that someone in that group takes a step forward. The Jays have also been tied to shortstop Willy Adames, who is reportedly willing to move to third base with his new club if they already have a shortstop. The Jays have Bo Bichette at short but he’s only one year from free agency, so that’s a move that could potentially help in the short and long term.

The interest in Severino aligns with the club’s other rotation pursuits. As mentioned, they’ve been tied to Fried as well as Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, though Snell is now off the board due to his agreement with the Dodgers. Severino once seemed like a budding ace with the Yankees but he didn’t pitch much from 2019 to 2021 due to injuries. He was able to pitch partial seasons in 2022 and 2023 but with inconsistent results.

He’s coming off a solid bounceback year with the Mets. He made 32 starts and tossed 182 innings, his first time throwing more than 102 innings since 2018. On top of the quantity, there was also some quality, as Severino allowed 3.91 earned runs per innings. His 21.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average.

Severino isn’t as exciting as Burnes or Fried but he also won’t cost as much. MLBTR predicted Burnes for a $200MM guarantee and Fried a bit behind at $156MM. Severino, on the other hand, was projected for a three-year deal worth $51MM.

The Jays have a veteran rotation nucleus consisting of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. Another spot is likely ticketed to Bowden Francis after his strong second half. Options for the fifth spot include Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss but there’s sense in the Jays adding. Rodríguez has plenty of relief experience and the Jays need help in the bullpen, so he could be pushed there, at least until an injury opens up a need in the rotation. Bloss has less than 12 big league innings and only 112 in the minors, so he could get some more seasoning in Triple-A until a big league opportunity arises.

On the financial side of things, RosterResource projects the Jays for a payroll of $189MM next year. President Mark Shapiro has suggested the club will end up with a roughly similar payroll as they did in 2024. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged their Opening Day figure at $225MM last year, so that could leave them with about $35MM of wiggle room.

Adding one of these notable free agents could certainly fit into that window, though Soto would be a unique case. The average annual value of his contract will certainly eclipse that number but it’s been reported by Nicholson-Smith that the Jays would make an exception for Soto, willing to stretch the budget further than they would otherwise.

Each of Soto, Bregman, Severino, Fried, Burnes, Santander and Adames rejected a qualifying offer, so the associated penalties will also have to be a consideration. The Jays seemingly ducked under the competitive balance tax in 2024 with their midseason selloff, though it’s not yet official. If that proves to be the case, the Jays would have to surrender their second-best pick in the upcoming draft as well as $500K of international bonus pool space for signing one of these players.

Phillies Interested In Alex Bregman, Willy Adames

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Last week, it was reported by Matt Gelb of The Athletic that the Phils were giving some thought to trading outfielder Nick Castellanos, infielder Alec Bohm, prospect Justin Crawford or left-hander Ranger Suárez as they look to shake up their roster. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports along similar lines, noting that the club is making Bohm available and is expected to look to free agents Alex Bregman or Willy Adames if they succeed in trading Bohm.

As the Phils look to make some changes, they only have so many avenues. Many of their position players are expensive veterans who are entrenched on the roster, either due to their performance, their contracts or both.

Bohm, on the other hand, is still in his arbitration years, slated for free agency after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8.1MM next year and Bohm would be due another raise for 2026.

On top of that, his performance has been more good than great. To this point in his career, he has a batting line of .277/.327/.416. That translates to a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% better than the league average hitter. He did have a 115 wRC+ in 2024, but in lopsided fashion, with a 128 in the first half and a 90 in the second. Also, most of his damage has been done with the platoon advantage. He has a career 135 wRC+ against lefties in his career but a subpar 91 wRC+ against righties.

Defensively, he hasn’t been great overall, though he has shown signs of improvement. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -46 over the first four years of his career but then had him at league average in 2024. Outs Above Average had Bohm in negative territory from 2020 to 2022 but slightly better than par in the past two years.

Overall, he’s been a useful player but something below a star, and either Bregman or Adames could be seen as a clear upgrade. Bregman has hit .272/.366/.483 in his career for a 135 wRC+ and has been a considered a strong defender at third base to boot. Adames has hit .248/.322/.444 for a 109 wRC+ in his career while providing strong shortstop defense, but he’s reportedly willing to move to other infield positions. Most shortstops are capable of moving to other spots on the infield fairly smoothly, so it’s possible the Phils would expect Adames to provide better glovework than Bohm, even though it would be a new position for him.

Enacting these moves would have complications. Bohm’s modest projected salary is far less than what Bregman or Adames are likely to earn on their respective contracts. MLBTR predicted Bregman for $182MM and Adames  for $160MM over six years, both for average annual values in the $26-27MM range.

The payroll could be a notable story for the Phils this offseason. Chairman John Middleton has said he expects payroll to go up but it already has, in a way. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $263MM next year, which is $15MM higher than 2024 before they’ve even made any moves.

Their $282MM competitive balance tax number is already projected to be above the third tier of penalization. As a third-time payor, that means they are already looking at a 95% tax on any money they add up to the final line of $301MM. Anything they add beyond that line would have a 110% tax rate.

Swapping in Bregman or Adames for Bohm would make those numbers go up but it seems the Phils have at least some hope of making up the difference elsewhere. Nightengale notes that they have tried to use Bohm and Crawford to pry Garrett Crochet loose from the White Sox. Crochet had a massive breakout in 2024, tossing 146 innings with a 3.58 earned run average, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

That performance will make Crochet very popular on the trade market, but so will his salary. Since he spent the early parts of his career either injured or working out of the bullpen, he’s only projected for a $2.9MM salary in 2025, with one more arb pass after that. The Phils have a strong rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Suárez and Taijuan Walker, but Walker has fallen out of favor with the club, getting kicked to the bullpen for a time in 2024. Andrew Painter could be a factor in 2025 but he’s a big unknown since he still hasn’t made his major league debut and is coming back from a long Tommy John surgery layoff.

It would obviously be a wonderful series of chess moves if the Phillies could use Bohm to add a cheap ace to their rotation, perhaps finding a way to unload the two years and $36MM left on Walker’s contract, and then use the cost savings to get a star like Bregman or Adames to replace Bohm at third.

However, doing all of that would require the agreement of other teams. Bohm’s trade value won’t be that high on account of his aforementioned deficiencies. Nightengale adds that the Sox are worried by Bohm’s performance in the second half of 2024. He also wouldn’t have much value to the Sox anyway, since his control window is so short. After Chicago’s record-breaking loss tally in 2024, it’s hard to envision them return to contention in Bohm’s two remaining years of club control. The Phils might have to include some more prospect talent to get a deal done, which they might not want to do right now, given how much of the roster is filled with expensive veterans.

A far simpler outcome for Bregman would just be to re-sign with the Astros, where he has spent his entire career so far. It’s a far simpler fit and the two sides seemingly have had mutual interest in signing a new deal for years, but nothing has come together thus far.

It seems there might be a bit of a gap in terms of the financials, with Nightengale reporting that Houston wants Bregman back on a deal of about $156MM over six years but Bregman is looking to get to the $200MM line. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that the Astros have made an offer to Bregman. It’s unknown what they put on the table but the fact that he hasn’t yet accepted it suggests that it wasn’t up to his expectations. General manager Dana Brown has suggested the club might need to be creative with the budget this offseason but owner Jim Crane has suggested there’s money available for the right players and all signs have pointed to Bregman being the club’s highest priority.

Bregman has also been connected to the Tigers and Red Sox in the past week, with the latter club considering a move to first base for Rafael Devers, in order to accommodate Bregman. Adames has also been connected to the Red Sox, in addition to the Astros, Atlanta, Blue Jays and Giants. Both players rejected qualifying offers and would be subject to associated penalties, unless they re-sign with their respective 2024 clubs.

For the Phils, since they paid the CBT in 2024, they would have to forfeit $1MM of international bonus pool space as well as their second- and fifth-best picks in the upcoming draft if they sign a player that rejected a qualifying offer. The Astros wouldn’t forfeit anything, apart from the compensation pick they stand to receive if Bregman goes elsewhere, which would come after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Red Sox Reportedly Considering Moving Rafael Devers Off Third Base

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The Red Sox have held internal discussions regarding the possibility of moving longtime third baseman Rafael Devers off the position, per a report from MassLive’s Sean McAdam. McAdam goes on to suggest that the club views a trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado with the Cardinals as a potential option to fill their vacancy at the hot corner in the event Devers changes positions, whether that be a move to first base or DH.

The idea of Devers moving to first base has previously been floated by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and The New York Post’s Jon Heyman throughout the offseason so far, though McAdam’s report stands as the first confirmation that a position change for Devers is under internal consideration within the organization. Previously, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has declined to comment on the possibility of moving Devers off third beyond saying that the club wouldn’t seriously entertain the idea without first discussing it with Devers himself. That could be a complicating factor in a position change, as Devers’s agent, Nelson Montes de Oca, recently told Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that Devers has no plans to move off the hot corner.

“He is a third baseman,” Montes de Oca told Speier, “and he will continue to play third base and work hard to get better at it. That’s his position, that’s what he likes to play, and that’s what he will be playing.”

Resistance to a position change from Devers’s camp isn’t the only potential obstacle to a move. After all, the Red Sox have an extremely talented incumbent first baseman in Triston Casas, who at just 24 years old remains under team control for four more seasons and has previously expressed interest in signing with Boston on a long-term extension. The youngster missed much of the 2024 season due to injury but is a career .250/.357/.473 (125 wRC+) hitter since making his big league debut late in the 2022 season. There’s been speculation at times this winter that the Red Sox could consider moving on from Casas to land starting pitching, but Breslow was quick to shoot down those rumors earlier this month. Given that, a move to first base for Devers would require the front office to either reverse their stance on dealing Casas or else park him at DH on a regular basis, pushing Masataka Yoshida (and the three years and $55.6MM remaining on his contract) either to the bench or off the roster entirely.

Complicated as a position change for Devers would be, the potential benefits for the club could be substantial. Devers is among the worst fielding third basemen in the sport by most metrics, and a move across the diamond would surely improve the club’s infield defense dramatically. In 2024, Devers was worth -9 Defensive Runs Saved and posted a -5 in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric. That’s the lowest DRS and tied for the lowest FRV among all qualified (min. 750 innings) third basemen this year. Replacing Devers with an average or even slightly below average glove at third would improve the club’s infield defense considerably, but a position change for Devers would likely be just as motivated by it creating an avenue to improving the club’s offense.

If third base were to be opened by Devers moving to first, that would create an easy place for the Red Sox to add a right-handed bat to the lineup. Adding some thump from the right side has been a priority for Boston dating back to the trade deadline, and the club’s need for a right-handed hitter to add to their offense only grew more pronounced when outfielder Tyler O’Neill hit the open market earlier this month. Most attention on this need has been focused on the outfield at this point in the offseason given the club’s reported interest in either a reunion with O’Neill or pivoting to a deal with Teoscar Hernandez, but the club’s outfield remains crowded with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all in the mix for playing time already before considering top prospect Roman Anthony (or veterans Yoshida and Rob Refsnyder), who should be ready to take on a regular role at some point in 2025.

Complicated as that outfield picture already is, it’s easy to see why adding a right-handed bat to the infield could be a preferable, more straightforward option than adding another player to the club’s logjam on the grass. Given that, it’s perhaps no surprise that the club has been connected to both longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman and former Brewers shortstop Willy Adames in free agency. Both players have expressed an openness to moving to second base (as well as third, in the case of Adames) if their new club so desires, meaning the addition of either player wouldn’t necessarily require Devers to change positions. With highly-regarded second base prospect Kristian Campbell seemingly in the mix for starts in Boston as soon as Opening Day, however, it’s easy to see why the Red Sox may prefer to install Bregman or Adames at the hot corner and move Devers to first.

While the club’s interest in Bregman and Adames has been reported semi-frequently to this point in the winter, McAdam’s suggestion that Arenado could be a consideration for the Red Sox is the first connection between Boston and the veteran star. Unlike Bregman and Adames, it’s all but unfathomable that a ten-time Gold Glove award winner like Arenado would change positions in deference to Devers, meaning a deal for the 33-year-old would certainly require a position change for the younger star. Arenado is also coming off his second consecutive down season offensively. While he was a finalist for the NL MVP award back in 2022, he’s hit just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in two seasons since then.

That said, Arenado’s defense has remained well above average even if it’s no longer quite as elite as it was during his peak, and that’s allowed him to be a roughly three-win player in each of the past two seasons. While he may no longer offer the same level of impact as Bregman or Adames, the three years and $74MM remaining on the veteran’s contract pales in comparison to the nine-figure sums both free agents are expected to land and would likely do little to impede Boston’s pursuit of other top-of-the-market names like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell, especially if a deal involved the Cardinals either retaining some money or taking on a sizable portion of Yoshida’s contract in return. Any deal involving Arenado, of course, would require the veteran’s approval given his full no-trade clause. While the 33-year-old hasn’t requested a trade to this point, both he and the Cardinals appear to be open to parting ways if the right deal comes along given the club’s plans to retool and focus on youth in 2025.

Astros Have Made Offer To Alex Bregman

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The Astros have called re-signing Alex Bregman their top offseason priority. Whether that’ll happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their longtime third baseman. It’s unclear whether any other teams have made a formal proposal, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.

Terms of the Astros’ proposal aren’t known. If Houston is going to retain Bregman, it’d probably require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous organizational high is the five-year, $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot at six or seven years at more than $25MM annually. He’ll presumably view Matt Chapman’s recent six-year, $151MM extension as the floor and could look to beat $200MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that the Astros may need to creatively manage the books, potentially by trading a veteran or two who is playing on a notable salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team has the flexibility to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year.

That’d essentially be a prerequisite to re-signing Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base threshold. Even if the Astros trade veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and offload his $14MM salary, a Bregman contract will send them past the CBT mark. They’re also looking for help at first base and could try for a more affordable bullpen pickup if they deal Pressly.

This is the first direct tie between Bregman and the Tigers. That has been a longstanding speculative match with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch leading the charge in Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unsettled. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and prospect Jace Jung all took a decent number of at-bats at the position. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-positional players. Third base is the clearest fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers were to land Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson for playing time at first base. He’d also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to solidify the rotation behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson.

Finances are the much bigger obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch was running the franchise. The Tigers have dramatically reduced spending since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership tenure began in 2017. Much of that came amidst a rebuild that was firmly closed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have around $80MM on next year’s payroll, according to RosterResource, nearly $20MM below this past season’s Opening Day mark. They should be active on the free agent market, but a Bregman deal would almost certainly top the $140MM Javier Báez contract as Detroit’s biggest under Christopher Ilitch ownership.

The Red Sox appear more likely than either the Astros or Tigers to make a huge free agent splash. Boston brass continues to forecast an aggressive winter. A strike for a top starting pitcher is a clearer fit than a run at Bregman. Heyman suggests the Sox could move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That’d push Triston Casas to designated hitter and presumably force Masataka Yoshida off the roster.

The easier solution might be to leave Devers at third base for another season and deploy Bregman at the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB this year. Bregman has barely played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the star infielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.

Bregman declined a qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox would forfeit a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit would lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston would relinquish its second-highest pick and $500K from its international bonus allotment. The Sox’s penalty is higher because they do not receive revenue sharing, while the Tigers do. Houston wouldn’t give up anything to re-sign their own free agent, though they’d pass up the chance to collect a compensation pick after the fourth round if Bregman walks.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Alex Bregman Willing To Move To Second Base

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Earlier this month, Alex Bregman was awarded a Gold Glove for his defense at third base. He has been an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, and a World Series champion, but this was the first Gold Glove of his nine-year career. The honor was well deserved. According to Baseball Savant, Bregman set new career highs in Outs Above Average (OAA) and Fielding Run Value (FRV). The metrics at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus agree he was the most valuable defensive third baseman in the American League. Yet, Bregman’s agent Scott Boras revealed at the GM meetings this week that multiple teams have asked about his client’s willingness to move to second base – and Boras confirmed that Bregman would indeed be willing to make the change (per Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

It’s not necessarily surprising that Bregman would be amenable to switching positions. Extra versatility will only make him more appealing as a free agent. The more suitors he can attract, the more money he can command. Similar reports came out this week about fellow top free agent Willy Adames, a talented shortstop who would be willing to move to second or third base on the right deal. Moreover, it’s not as if Bregman would be completely new to the keystone. He played a handful of games at second base in each of his first three MLB seasons. He also has plenty of experience at shortstop from college and his early professional years.

What is slightly more surprising is the fact that teams would be interested in Bregman playing second base in the first place. He’s a good enough hitter that his bat could play anywhere around the diamond, but he is an experienced third baseman coming off the best defensive season of his career. It’s hard to imagine his glove would be quite as valuable at a new position – nor would his bat necessarily play any better at second base. Historically, second base has been a weaker offensive position than third, but the gap has nearly disappeared over the last two years. From 2023-24, second basemen have produced a .308 wOBA. Third baseman have put up a .309 wOBA in that time. Finally, there is more competition on the free agent market at second base than third. Adames and Ha-Seong Kim can play both positions, but each has more big league experience at second. In addition, two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres and Hyeseong Kim. Bregman is the only primary third baseman on our top 50 list.

On the other hand, Bregman has never had a good arm for a third baseman. What’s more, it’s quite possible he would have been a second baseman all along if it weren’t for Jose Altuve blocking the position in Houston. Considering Bregman’s arm looked weaker than usual in 2024 (and that he just had surgery on his throwing elbow), perhaps some of his suitors think he’ll be a better defender at second base in the long run. Alternatively, they might just be hedging their bets in case his elbow problems linger into next season.

Regardless, Bregman continues to be most strongly linked to Houston this offseason. GM Dana Brown told reporters (including Jon Heyman of the New York Post) at the GM Meetings that he thinks the Astros have “a really good chance” of re-signing their homegrown star. In that case, there is no doubt he would resume his duties at the hot corner in 2025. Altuve is coming off another All-Star season at second, and the face of the Astros franchise is under contract for another five years and $125 million.

Mariners Prioritizing Infield Bats

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The Mariners are once again looking to upgrade their offense this winter after 2024’s underwhelming results at the plate squandered a terrific season from their pitching staff. Unsurprisingly, general manager Justin Hollander tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the M’s view second base as a priority this offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that the M’s would also like to add at first base. Ideally, Seattle would add one bat to help out at second or third base — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore a potential platoon at the other spot — and another at first base. Hollander downplayed the idea of adding to the outfield, telling FanSided’s Robert Murray that between Randy Arozarena in left, Julio Rodriguez in center, Victor Robles in right and Luke Raley as a corner outfield/first base/DH option, the Mariners feel they have potential for a “pretty high-end outfield.”

With the offseason just days old, there are of course virtually limitless options to explore via free agency and trade. Morosi reports that Seattle is among the teams to have evaluated Hyeseong Kim, the star second baseman of the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes. Kim, 25, is scheduled to be posted for MLB clubs to bid on this winter. Rosenthal lists a reunion with Justin Turner as something Seattle could pursue. He cautions against the likelihood of the Mariners spending to the levels necessary to add longtime division rival Alex Bregman or (to a lesser extent) first baseman Christian Walker.

Kim, 26 in January, hit .326/.383/.458 with 11 home runs, 30 steals, an 8.3% walk rate and just a 10.9% strikeout rate for the Heroes this past season. He’s been a plus hitter three straight seasons in the KBO but is more of a contact-, speed- and defense-oriented player, as he’s not considered to have much home run pop. This past season’s 11 round-trippers were a career-high. Turner, of course, finished out the 2024 season in Seattle after coming over from the Blue Jays in a trade. He batted .264/.363/.403 in 190 plate appearances as a Mariner. His overall .259/.354/.383 slash is a ways from peak levels, and Turner will turn 40 later this month. That said, he was still a productive big league hitter this past season.

The Mariners’ expected focus on infield bats — and their flexibility to look at multiple positions — was laid out in our Mariners Offseason Outlook. As noted in that piece a few weeks back, Kim and Gleyber Torres are two particularly interesting options at second base, and both are likely to be relatively affordable. Former Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim could technically be a fit at second or third base, but he’s likely to miss the beginning of the season following his recent shoulder surgery and derives a good bit of his value from his plus glovework. He’d be a less-than-ideal fit if the goal is to bolster the offense from day one.

Meanwhile, signing Bregman or Willy Adames (perhaps with eye toward moving him to third base) would represent a major philosophical departure from the Mariners’ past mode of operation. The M’s have only given out one multi-year deal to a free agent position player under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto — that being last winter’s two-year, $24MM pact to Mitch Garver. Rosenthal suggests that signing a $100MM+ deal could be outside the team’s budget, but even beyond that, it’s simply not how Dipoto has historically operated.

The trade market could present various alternatives. The Rays will likely listen to offers on Yandy Diaz, making him one speculative fit at first base. He’d align well with Seattle’s desire to reduce their MLB-worst strikeout rate and is slated to earn $10MM next year with a $12MM club option for 2026. Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, owed $10.5MM with an $11.5MM club option for 2026, is another on-paper fit. He wouldn’t reduce the team’s strikeout rate, but he’s a potential impact bat with multiple years of club control. Cleveland could listen to offers on slugging first baseman Josh Naylor.

However things play out, the M’s will be looking to once again redraw an offense that has struggled to make contact at one of the most glaring rates in the league. In addition to tying the Rockies with an MLB-high 26.8% strikeout rate, Mariners hitters had the league’s third-lowest overall contact rate (74%) and were tied for MLB’s second-worst contact rate on swings at pitches within the strike zone (82.9%). The Seattle lineup actually chased pitches off the plate at the fourth-lowest rate in MLB … but their contact rate on those swings was still the third-worst.

Alex Bregman Has Bone Chip Removed From Elbow

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Agent Scott Boras spoke to the media at the general managers meetings in San Antonio today. He discussed the situations with many of his clients, noting that infielder Alex Bregman underwent a procedure to remove a bone chip from his right elbow. Per Boras, Bregman will resume swinging in a few weeks and should be fine for spring training. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the news on X.

The news doesn’t come out of nowhere, as Bregman dealt with some elbow soreness in August. He didn’t go on the injured list but did miss about a week and then served as the designated hitter for a few games once he returned to the lineup. He was back at third base at the end of August and through September but clearly the issue lingered enough that it needed offseason attention.

Assuming the timeline provided by Boras is accurate, it shouldn’t be a big deal for Bregman, as he will seemingly have plenty of opportunity to heal up. But it will nonetheless be something for clubs to monitor before making a sizable investment in Bregman.

He recently ranked third on MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents with a prediction that he could secure a guarantee of $182MM over a seven-year deal. As clubs like the Astros, Mariners, Blue Jays, Mets, Yankees, Tigers and others consider forking over that kind of cash, any kind of health situation will be something to watch closely. The free agent market doesn’t really have another viable everyday third baseman but the trade market could feature guys like Nolan Arenado or Eugenio Suárez.

Durability has generally been a strong suit in Bregman’s career. He missed a small amount of time in 2020 due to a right hamstring discomfort then in 2021 due to a left quad strain, but he appeared in at least 155 games from 2017 to 2019, then again in 2022 and 2023 before getting into 145 this past season. He’s hit .272/.366/.483 in his career with above-average defense at third base, allowing him to produce 39.7 wins above replacement so far, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

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