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Alex Bregman

Astros Notes: Bregman, Alvarez, McCormick

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Last week, Astros GM Dana Brown revealed that he hopes to talk about a new contract with third baseman Alex Bregman prior to the franchise third baseman hitting the open market this November. At the time of that interview, Brown indicated that he and Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, had briefly talked regarding Bregman’s future and agreed to wait to begin any sort of contract discussions until “things are over.” Now, Bregman himself has chimed in and expressed a similar desire to put his impending free agency out of mind until the 2024 season has wrapped up.

“I haven’t really thought about it too much, honestly,” Bregman told reporters yesterday when asked about the possibility of leaving Houston, as relayed by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “Just focused on trying to win a game and get this division clinched… Just been really focused on winning.”

Waiting until the end of the postseason (or for the Astros to be eliminated) before engaging in talks regarding Bregman’s future in Houston comes as something of a surprise, particularly given Brown’s long-standing commitment to talking with the third baseman and his representation before he hits free agency. With that being said, it’s not necessarily a shock from the player’s perspective that he would prefer to focus on the upcoming playoff run before turning to contract negotiations.

Generally, it’s extremely rare for players to re-up with their current club this close to free agency, particularly when it comes to stars of Bregman’s caliber. It does happen on occasion, though, as it did when the Mets retained closer Edwin Diaz on a record-breaking contract just days before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. That Bregman is represented by the Boras Corporation, which has generally advised its clients to establish their values on the open market, could be another potential roadblock to a deal coming together before he hits free agency. Of course, it must be noted that Boras clients do sign extensions with their clubs on occasion; Bregman himself did so earlier in his career, and fellow third baseman Matt Chapman inked a long-term extension with the Giants earlier this month despite a return to free agency being just two months away at that point.

While Bregman’s uncertain future looms over the club in the longer term, a much more immediate concern is the status of star slugger Yordan Alvarez with the playoffs just around the corner. Alvarez exited the club’s game on Sunday due to a right knee sprain, but seemed somewhat optimistic after speaking to reporters about the issue yesterday (X video link courtesy of KHOU11’s Luis Ortiz). Alvarez said that while he’s had an easier time walking in the days since his exit, he still has to wait for the inflammation in his knee to go down before he can return to playing. That will leave him out of action for the club’s final series of the season against Guardians, as manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) earlier today.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would have Alvarez take the remainder of the regular season off, given his importance to the club’s hopes of making noise in the postseason. After all, Houston clinched their fourth consecutive AL West title last night with a win over the Mariners, and it is no longer possible for them to catch either the Guardians or the eventual AL East champion in order to earn a bye through the upcoming Wild Card Series. That makes the final few games of the regular season largely meaningless for the club, offering them little incentive to rush Alvarez back and potentially worsen his injury woes.

It’s unclear at this point whether or not Alvarez will be ready to return to action in time for the Wild Card series, but even if he doesn’t it’s possible he’ll be available in later postseason rounds should the Astros continue to advance. His regular season comes to a close with a career-high 147 games under his belt and a typically excellent slash line of .308/.392/.567 with a wRC+ of 167 and 35 homers in 635 trips to the plate.

It’s a similar story for outfielder Chas McCormick, who has been on the injured list due to a fractured right hand for just over two weeks now. As relayed by Kawahara, Espada told reporters that McCormick is “moving in the right direction” and “looking pretty good” despite the fact that he won’t be joining the club for its final regular season games in Cleveland. The 29-year-old has resumed baseball activities, including reps in the batting cage and drills in the outfield, and could still be an option for the Astros in next week’s Wild Card Series. McCormick had a disappointing regular season where he hit just .211/.271/.306 (66 wRC+), but he was putting together something of a hot streak in the days prior to his injury as he went 10 for his last 24 with a double, a homer, and a walk in his final eight games of the regular season.

Astros Planning To Have Contract Talks With Alex Bregman

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Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is now just a few weeks away from becoming a free agent for the first time, but it seems there’s a chance he might not make it to the open market. General manager Dana Brown spoke with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and was asked about the situation, indicating that they still hope to approach Bregman at some point in the near future.

“We were in Anaheim the other day and I ran into [agent Scott Boras] and we started talking a little bit,” Brown said. “And we both said, ‘Look, once we get towards the end of the season and things are over, we’ll definitely engage and talk about it.’ We had a small conversation about it. Right now, we’re not in any discussions about contract offers. We both agreed we will meet back up.”

Brown was hired as the GM in January of 2023 and, from the beginning, has been consistent in saying that the club planned to talk to Bregman and his reps about a new contract at some point. Bregman and the Astros agreed to a five-year, $100MM extension in 2019. When Brown was hired and began talking about the desire to get a new deal done, there were still two years left on that pact but it’s now almost complete.

Getting a deal done at this point will be challenging but not impossible. While public reputation suggests Boras clients don’t sign extensions, there are a few examples that contradict that narrative, with the most recent coming less than two weeks ago. Matt Chapman, another Boras client, agreed to a six-year, $151MM pact with the Giants to prevent him from triggering his opt-out and returning to free agency.

Bregman will have an argument to top the Chapman deal. The two players have provided similar value on the field in recent years, with Bregman generally hitting more but Chapman providing better defensive value. But Bregman is a year younger, which should give him the edge. Both players had arguably their best seasons in 2018 and 2019. They have each fallen off a bit since then but have still been solidly above average players.

Bregman was undoubtedly better at that 2018-19 apex. He hit .291/.409/.561 over those two seasons for a 162 wRC+, while Chapman was at .263/.348/.507 and a 132 wRC+. Chapman provided more with the glove but still came up short overall, producing 11.9 wins above replacement compared to Bregman’s 16.2, per FanGraphs.

Since then, it’s been almost a dead heat. From 2020 to the present, Bregman has hit .260/.350/.442 for a 124 wRC+ while Chapman has a .231/.321/.434 line and 112 wRC+. Chapman makes up some of the difference with better baserunning but mostly defense: 44 Defensive Runs Saved and 33 Outs Above Average for Chapman compared to 10 DRS and 13 OAA for Bregman. Overall, Bregman has a 17 fWAR tally in that time while Chapman is narrowly behind at 16.7.

Given that similar production, Bregman and Boras should be able to use Chapman’s deal as a floor, with Bregman’s younger age justification in asking for an even greater guarantee. That kind of contract would be pretty unprecedented for the Astros, who have generally shied away from mega deals, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. They did give Jose Altuve an extension of five years and $151MM back in 2018, the largest deal in franchise history, but that deal began with Altuve’s age-29 season.

They were also near the start of their competitive window and had lots of payroll space at the time, which is no longer the case. The Astros are set to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time this year. They went over the CBT line in 2020 but the tax was paused during the pandemic and they have stayed under since.

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s CBT number is at $254MM for the year, well beyond the $237MM base threshold. Cot’s lists their 2025 number at $151MM but that doesn’t appear to include Ryan Pressly’s $14MM option, which he vested last month and is guaranteed as long as he’s healthy at season’s end. Adding that gets us to $165MM, then arbitration raises for Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker should add roughly $35MM or so, taking the number to about $200MM. Arb deals for guys like Bryan Abreu, José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Mauricio Dubón and others will add to that total as well.

Re-signing Bregman seems to be a priority for the club but they will naturally have other offseason business to attend to. Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi are set to become free agents, putting two holes in a rotation that has already been heavily bit by the injury bug. Perhaps Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. will be healthy and in the mix by next year, but adding to the starting group could be on the winter to-do list.

Addressing the pitching staff and adding a notable deal for Bregman would likely leave the club as a tax payor for a second straight year. Paying the tax in consecutive seasons comes with escalating penalties. A second-time payor sees its base tax rate go from 20% to 30%, with higher penalties for going beyond the additional tiers.

Whether the sides can get a deal done and keep Bregman in Houston remains to be seen. The club clearly wants it to happen based on how often Brown has talked about it, but it’s also never seemed like there’s been much momentum towards meaningful discussions. Even if Bregman eventually makes it to the open market, the Astros could re-sign him, but they would naturally have competition from the other clubs around the league. MLBTR ranked Bregman third on our most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, behind only Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic mentioned the Tigers as a speculative fit for Bregman this winter.

Tigers Notes: Keith, Jung, Offseason

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Tigers second baseman Colt Keith departed yesterday’s game after injuring his shoulder on a diving play. As noted by Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic, the 23-year-old initially stayed in the game after the incident but took himself out later on after he realized he couldn’t throw at full strength.

Keith will be sent for testing by the Tigers but the club is hopeful the injury won’t prove to be significant. As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Keith suffered an injury to the same shoulder as a prospect back in 2022 that limited him to 48 games that year, though the rookie told reporters after the game that yesterday’s issue “felt different” than his old shoulder ailment.

An absence of virtually any length could have a significant impact on the AL playoff picture with just over a week remaining in the regular season and Detroit just 1.5 games behind the Twins for the final AL Wild Card spot. Keith, who signed a pre-debut extension with the Tigers over the offseason that guaranteed him just over $28.5MM over six years, struggled early in his MLB career but has really turned things around in recent months, with a solid .293/.340/.444 slash line in his 403 trips to the plate that’s brought his full-season offensive performance to essentially league average (99 wRC+).

Utilityman Zach McKinstry, who has hit just .224/.284/.352 in 109 games with the club this year, would presumably see an uptick in playing time in the event that Keith misses any time or heads to the injured list. Top prospect Jace Jung is another option. He’s played third base exclusively since being brought up to the majors but has spent more time at second base in his minor league career. Jung is out to a .214/.337/.257 start through his first 83 MLB plate appearances, but he turned in a more impressive .257/.377/.454 slash in Triple-A prior to his promotion.

Both Keith and Jung have split their professional playing careers between second base and third base, with a bit more of an emphasis on the former. There’s potential for Jung to cement himself as the team’s everyday third baseman now that Keith increasingly looks to be the long-term second baseman, but Jung is still adapting at third base after spending his college career at second base. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Jung may not end up as a fixture at the hot corner, in part because the Tigers stand as a viable fit for free agent third baseman Alex Bregman, who obviously has longstanding ties to Detroit skipper (and former Astros manager) AJ Hinch.

That scenario is framed in speculative fashion, to be clear. Conceptually, however, it’s sensible for the Tigers to consider premium free-agent additions and to be willing to move from the top tiers of their farm system. The team only has likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal under club control through 2026, and while an extension is always possible, those chances are lessened given that he’s represented by the Boras Corporation. There will surely be efforts to keep Skubal, be they via extension or free agency, but the two remaining years he has with the team do create something of a window.

Skubal headlines a growing core that also includes Riley Greene, Reese Olson, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows and the aforementioned Keith, among others. They’re still hopeful of getting meaningful contributions from former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize, but neither has lived up to expectations thus far (though Torkelson has been productive since returning from Triple-A, hitting .267/.330/.448 — albeit with a 32% strikeout rate and .375 BABIP). Jung and young Justyn-Henry Malloy could both be prominent players, and Detroit has two of the game’s top overall prospects in outfielder Max Clark and right-hander Jackson Jobe.

It’s hard to imagine Clark or Jobe on the table in offseason trade talks, but the Tigers have surged into the postseason picture and figure to have a relatively aggressive offseason in store whether they reach the playoffs or narrowly miss. But with room for additions at third base, on the pitching staff (rotation and bullpen) and perhaps another corner bat in the first base/outfield/designated hitter mold, the Tigers have myriad paths to bolstering the roster, any number of which could be accomplished via trading from their non-Clark/Jobe prospect depth.

In terms of payroll capacity, while the Javier Baez contract looms large as an albatross, he and Keith are the only players signed to guaranteed contracts beyond the 2025 season. There’s considerable room for the Tigers to make a splash or two — if not from the top tier of available names then certainly in the three- or four-year range for mid-market free agents.

Astros Shut Down Penn Murfee’s Rehab Assignment

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Right-hander Penn Murfee began a rehab assignment last week but made just one appearance and will now be shut down. Per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, the righty has been returned from that rehab assignment due to what the team calls “a reoccurrence of right elbow discomfort.”

Murfee, now 30, got out to a strong start in his major league career. He made 80 appearances for the Mariners over the 2022 and 2023 seasons with a 2.70 earned run average. He posted a strong 27.9% strikeout rate in that time, with his 8.5% walk rate close to league average.

The latter of those two seasons was cut short midway through, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in July of last year. In the offseason, the M’s put him on waivers and he was claimed by the Mets and then Atlanta. The latter club non-tendered him, re-signed him to a split deal and then put him back on waivers, at which point the Astros claimed him.

Houston was undoubtedly hoping Murfee could provide a second-half jolt to their bullpen once he recovered from his surgery, but that’s looking less likely now. “It’s not ideal,” manager Joe Espada said. “It sucks because I know he’s worked really hard. He wants to get on the field, he wants to pitch for us this season. I still expect him to do it. It’s just, we’re going to have to slow him down a little bit here and see how he feels. It’s day to day right now.”

It seems Espada still left the window open for Murfee to come back this year, but it’ll be tight just based on the calendar. Whenever he’s cleared to restart his rehab, he’ll presumably need a few outings to get into game shape after so much down time. The Astros have taken the lead in the West division and could perhaps increase the chances of Murfee playing a role if they manage to play deep into October yet again.

Even if that doesn’t come to pass, Murfee could play a role on the club in the future. He came into this season with one year and 169 days of service time. Players on the major league injured list collect service time, so he’ll finish this year at 2.169 as long as he’s not activated and then optioned in the next few weeks. He will qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter but won’t be able to command a huge raise after so much missed time. The Astros can control him for four additional seasons beyond this one.

In another bit of Astros news, Chandler Rome of The Athletic relays on X that the club is going to give Alex Bregman some reps at first base. He recently missed a few games due to right elbow inflammation but has been in the last two contests as the designated hitter. Shay Whitcomb has been covering the hot corner of late while Bregman’s elbow is preventing him from making strong throws across the diamond, but perhaps he could handle first, where the throwing demands are lower.

While the club is surely glad to have Bregman’s bat back in the lineup, it currently makes for a slightly awkward fit as it forces Yordan Alvarez to play the field every day. The club has also given some DH time to Yainer Diaz this year, keeping his bat in the lineup whenever Victor Caratini is catching. If Bregman could slot in at first from time to time, it could give Espada a bit more flexibility in setting the lineup, getting Alvarez and Diaz a lighter workload as they approach the postseason.

First base has been a bit hole for the club this year, with José Abreu having been released after his immense struggles. Jon Singleton has largely taken over, with Zach Dezenzo also factoring in lately and Diaz moving there on occasion as well. Singleton is hitting .234/.314/.369 this year for a wRC+ of 97, almost league average but a bit below the expectations for a first baseman. Dezenzo has hit .188/.235/.313 in a small sample of 34 plate appearances. Bregman has hit .261/.319/.448 this year for a 117 wRC+ but has been even better lately. After cold start to the season, he has hit .296/.351/.512 since the start of June for a 145 wRC+.

Alex Bregman Discusses Elbow Soreness

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Alex Bregman returned to the Astros’ lineup this afternoon, hitting atop the order while playing designated hitter. Bregman’s leadoff homer accounted for the only run in a 4-1 loss to the Red Sox. That was his first at-bat in a week, as the two-time All-Star hadn’t played since last Wednesday because of inflammation in his right elbow.

Bregman’s return to the order doesn’t mean he’s at full strength. Breaking him back in at DH suggested the Astros were still concerned about him throwing the ball across the diamond. Bregman acknowledged that could be a problem for the foreseeable future. The third baseman told reporters after the game that his defensive work will be “a fluid situation” for the remainder of the season (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Bregman made clear that he wasn’t dealing with any structural damage in his UCL but noted he’d need to “try to mitigate” swelling on a daily basis.

That is far from a declaration that he won’t return to third base, yet it seems likely he’ll get a fair amount of run at designated hitter down the stretch. That could push Yordan Alvarez more frequently into left field. Houston has also given catchers Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini sporadic DH work as a means of keeping them fresh while getting both players into the lineup. Caratini, as the #2 option behind the plate, could lose a few reps. Diaz has started two of the past three games at first base, where the Astros had been using a Jon Singleton/Zach Dezenzo platoon. That’s another potential avenue for manager Joe Espada to keep both catchers in the lineup.

The bigger question is how the Astros would cover third base if Bregman’s playing time there is curtailed. Rookie Shay Whitcomb is evidently the first choice. Houston called him up on Thursday and has given him the past five starts at the hot corner. Whitcomb has had a great year in Triple-A, hitting .293/.378/.530 with 25 homers and 26 stolen bases. He’d struggled with strikeouts throughout his minor league career before taking a significant step forward in that regard this season.

At this point, there’s no indication that Bregman is dealing with anything especially worrisome. It’s nevertheless a situation worth monitoring as the Astros work to lock down another division title and into the upcoming offseason. Bregman will be a free agent for the first time and has a case as the second-best position player in the class behind Juan Soto.

As MLBTR explored in greater detail last week, Bregman has rebounded from a dismal start to the season. He has hit the ball harder as the year has progressed and has been on a power barrage this month. While his overall .261/.318/.450 season line is still below his standard level, that’s attributable to the poor start. Bregman is playing as well as ever over the past couple months.

Alex Bregman Has Returned To Form

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Alex Bregman did not have a good start to his platform year. The two-time All-Star hit .216/.283/.294 through the season's first month. His production in May was better (.221/.276/.442) but still far below his typical level. Bregman wasn't the biggest culprit for the Astros' rough start -- rotation injuries and a complete lack of production out of first base shouldered the majority of the blame -- but his underperformance was another red flag in a season that looked like it might go off the rails.

That's all changed in the past two and a half months. Player and team alike have found their stride since the start of June. The Astros are 39-22 going back to June 1. That includes an ongoing seven-game win streak that is the current best in MLB. A team that was once 12 games below .500 and 10 games back in the division race now holds a game and a half lead on the Mariners in the AL West. Houston and Seattle have almost completely pulled away from the defending champion Rangers, who have plummeted 9.5 back of a playoff spot.

Bregman is one of the biggest reasons for that resurgence. He has been a top 25 hitter in MLB since the start of June, hitting .302/.357/.516 with 12 homers. He's got five longballs in August alone, tying him for fifth (behind Jake Burger, Corey Seager, Ketel Marte and Juan Soto) in that regard. Bregman has put his early-season swoon behind him, albeit with one notable change from his pre-2024 production.

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Alex Bregman’s Slow Start Could Cost Him Millions

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Both the Astros and Alex Bregman are off to slow starts in 2024. There’s still lots of time left in the season for things to change, both for the club and for the player. But Bregman is set to be one of the top free agents available this winter and his slow start could have a significant impact on his earning power.

Bregman, 30, has appeared in 25 games this year and taken 108 trips to the plate. He remains tough to strike out, as his 12% clip is a match for last year’s rate and close to his career average. His 9.3% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 8.6% league average but well below Bregman’s previous form, as he drew free passes in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018 to 2023.

When he has put the bat on the ball, he hasn’t been able to do damage. Most notably, he has yet to hit a home run this season. He has just 21 hits, with his five doubles being the only knocks of the extra-base variety. His batting line for the year is .216/.287/.268, which translates to a wRC+ of 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than league average. His .247 batting average on balls in play is below average and below his career rate, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also down relative to his career marks.

As mentioned, there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, since we’re not even in the month of May yet. Bregman has been here before. The slump is not without precedent. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his .555 OPS this year is the seventh-worst of any 25-game stretch of his career. The six worse stretches all had a winter’s gap, as they each go from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023. That means Bregman is technically in the worst single-season slump of his career, but he also had a .558 OPS across May and June of 2022, not far off from his current woes.

Given that he’s had a tailspin like this before, it seems fair to expect him to pull out of it. However, that doesn’t mean teams won’t use it against him in free agency. As we just saw in the winter, clubs are quite willing to wave any red flags they can get their hands on if it helps their bargaining position.

Cody Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs last year and seemed poised for a huge payday, especially when also factoring in his 20 stolen bases and center field defense. But his mega contract never arrived, perhaps due to health concerns or perhaps due to his Statcast data being on the weak side. He was notoriously poor over 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery, and his 2023 bounceback season still saw him go on the injured list. While the end-of-season results were strong, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile of qualified league hitters while his hard hit rate was in the 10th.

On the other end of the spectrum was Matt Chapman, who had strong Statcast metrics but tepid results. Chapman’s exit velocity and hard hit rate were among the best in the league, finishing in the 98th and 100th percentile, respectively. But he hit .240/.330/.424 on the year overall, 110 wRC+, and in rather uneven fashion. As many pointed out, he hit .384/.465/.687 in April but then .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. That framing ignores the fact that Chapman was still good in July and got hurt in August, which may have made his post-April stats look worse than they were, but it may not have mattered.

When MLBTR previewed the upcoming free agent class, which is linked above, it was mentioned that a seven- or eight-year deal north of $200MM was a possibility for Bregman. Flawed-but-talented players have certainly gone over that line before, with Xander Bogaerts and Anthony Rendon some of the recent examples. The expectation of the industry was that players like Bellinger and Chapman could get nine-figure deals despite their own issues, but that’s not how it played out. Each had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs, hoping that continued strong performance could lead to a better deal down the road.

Bregman has plenty of attributes that he and his reps can point to. Injuries have not been a major factor for him, as he has played at least 155 games in five of the past six full seasons. His strikeout and walk rates are both consistently better than average, while his third base defense is rated well. The elite offense he showed in 2018 and 2019 might be gone, but he hit .261/.364/.447 over 2022 and 2023 for a 131 wRC+.

But his struggles this year could be used against him, even if they don’t last all year, which could be tricky for Bregman. Back in March of 2019, he signed a $100MM extension with the club which locked in some big money for him but also gave the club two years of extra control. That means that despite debuting in the big leagues at the age of 22, he’ll be going into free agency ahead of his age-31 season.

It seems fair to assume that Bregman and his representatives at the Boras Corporation would prefer to lock in as much money as they can this winter. Boras clients have pivoted to short-term deals when necessary, but Bregman’s age make that undesirable, as it will be harder for him to increase his earning power as he moves deeper into his 30s. He and the Astros have had some on-and-off talks about another extension in recent years, but the fact that nothing has come together yet perhaps suggests that he has been holding out for something big this winter.

The Astros under owner Jim Crane have been averse to lengthy contracts, having never gone longer than six years. Even the six-year extensions they did agree to were for much younger players. Jose Altuve got a six-year deal which started with his age-29 season while Yordan Alvarez got one starting for his age-26 campaign. However, they did just sign another extension with Altuve, a five-year pact that covers his age-35 through age-39 seasons, so it’s not as though going deep into a player’s 30s is completely off the table.

Perhaps Bregman can finish the season strong and the market conditions will eventually work in his favor. This past offseason, it seems like factors such as dwindling TV revenue and the competitive balance tax had negative impacts on free agents. It’s possible to imagine a correction this winter. Perhaps the Mets will be looking to get more aggressive after being relatively quiet. Maybe the new owner of the Orioles looks to make a headline-grabbing deal. Maybe the Red Sox come out swinging after some positive player development in 2024.

But even if those stars do align, those clubs will have other options, such as 26-year-old hitting savant Juan Soto, bona fide ace Corbin Burnes, consistent power threat Pete Alonso or everyday shortstop Willy Adames.

Even the teams looking to make a big splash next winter might not have Bregman atop their list as a 31-year-old third baseman who has been quite good but not necessarily elite in recent years. The longer this slump continues, the more they can use it as a bargaining tactic. Bregman and Boras surely noticed what happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who all had to lower their demands as the recent offseason slouched along. Even Snell’s Cy Young season couldn’t wash away concerns about his previous low points.

One thing that could work in Bregman’s favor is if the Astros keep struggling and he winds up traded at the deadline, which would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer. But Montgomery didn’t have a QO attached to him this past winter and that didn’t seem to matter much. Bregman and the Boras team are undoubtedly aware that there’s a wide range of outcomes for his free agency, making the next few months all the more important.

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings, Ohtani’s Stolen Money And The A’s Moving To Sacramento

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • How can a pitcher blow a save in the seventh inning? How early can a save be blown? (38:25)
  • Do you think the Tigers will release Javier Báez? It is painful to watch him. (41:15)
  • Who could the Braves target inside or outside the organization to replace Spencer Strider? (45:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

2024-25 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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The season is underway, which makes this a good time to look ahead to next winter with the first installment of the 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings! It’s an annual series here at MLBTR, wherein we try to rank the upcoming class of free agents by measure of their estimated earning power.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season. Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but two to three weeks into the season, it’s not a huge factor. By the end time the season draws to a close, however, 2024 results will weigh heavily into the rankings. A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. I worked with colleagues Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald as well as MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes for the first installment of this year’s rankings. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

Statistics are up-to-date through April 12.

* denotes players who are ineligible for a qualifying offer

1. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees

Were it not for Shohei Ohtani reaching the open market a year sooner, Soto might have a claim to the most coveted free agent ever. Because he skyrocketed through the minor leagues and took MLB by storm beginning at age 19, Soto’s final year of arbitration eligibility comes in just his age-25 campaign. He’ll play the entirety of his first free agent season at 26 years of age. For some context, Aaron Judge — who re-signed on a nine-year, $360MM contract with the Yankees upon reaching free agency — debuted at 24 and had 773 big league plate appearances heading into his own age-26 season.

Soto is a freak of nature who was one of MLB’s best hitters at an age when most top prospects are still in college or just entering the low minors. He hit .292/.406/.517 as a teenage rookie in 2018, and his preternatural plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills and raw power have only improved since. Through more than 3400 career plate appearances, Soto has walked at a staggering 18.9% clip and struck out in just 17% of his plate appearances. He entered the current season with 160 home runs, and while he’s never had a 40-homer campaign before, a move to Yankee Stadium and its notorious short porch in right field could help him get to 200 long balls before he turns 26.

Since his 2018 debut, Soto leads qualified big leaguers with a mammoth .422 on-base percentage. Mike Trout’s .415 mark ranks second, and Freddie Freeman (.402) is the only other hitter north of .400. Soto is “only” 16th in home runs in that time, but his 154 wRC+ — which indicates he’s been 54% better than an average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment — is tied with Mookie Betts for fourth-best in baseball, trailing only Trout, Yordan Alvarez and Judge.

If there’s one wart to Soto’s game, it’s that he’s limited to the outfield corners and isn’t regarded as an especially strong defender. He’s had seasons with positive grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, but on the whole he has negative marks from both in his career — both in left field and in right field. That said, he’s also only had two truly *bad* seasons per both of those metrics, and taken in totality, he sits around -2 DRS and -4 OAA per season. Obviously, that’s not great, but it’s also not exactly egregious. And given the otherworldly contributions he makes at the plate, playing a slightly below-average left or right field is more than an even trade-off.

Soto famously rejected a 14-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals before being traded to the Padres. Rejecting an offer of that magnitude led to plenty of jaws dropping, but when considering that it included his three final arbitration seasons and 11 free agent years, it’s not as jarring as it seems at first blush. Soto wound up earning $71.1MM over those three seasons, meaning he really “only” needs to earn $370MM or so in free agency to come out ahead. There’s already talk of a potential $500MM free-agent deal for Soto. Barring a catastrophic injury, he’ll likely come out ahead in that bet on himself. He’s the clear No. 1 free agent on next year’s market and will be one of the most sought-after free agents not only in baseball history but in all of professional sports.

2. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Orioles

Since his 2020 breakout, Burnes ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched, eighth in strikeout rate, fourth in K-BB%, second in opponents’ batting average, fifth in ERA, second in FIP and third in SIERA. Put another way — regardless of which metric you prefer to judge pitchers, Burnes ranks in the top-eight in just about any metric. He’s a bona fide No. 1 starter — very arguably one of the five best pitchers the sport has to offer at the moment.

Detractors might point to Burnes’ 2023 numbers as the potential beginning of a decline. His 3.39 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate were all more “very good” than elite. Through three starts in Baltimore, he’s trending back in the other direction. Small sample caveats obviously apply, but Burnes has opened his first season with his new club on a tear, tossing 18 2/3 innings of 1.93 ERA ball with a 28.6% strikeout rate and superlative 2.9% walk rate. His velocity is as strong as ever; his devastating cutter is averaging 95.1 mph — an exact match for his career-best mark, set back in 2021 when he won the National League Cy Young Award.

Burnes won’t turn 30 until October. He’s never been on the injured list due to an arm issue. His only IL stints were due to an oblique strain and Covid. Burnes might not be quite as dominant as he was when he was striking out more than 35% of his opponents from 2020-21, but he’s a workhorse ace and former Cy Young winner who still ranks among the game’s elite arms. Gerrit Cole’s nine-year deal with the Yankees began in his age-29 season. Teams have generally been wary of committing to long-term deals for pitchers that span beyond their age-37 season (though there are exceptions, as evidenced by Jacob deGrom’s current five-year deal).

Burnes is dominant enough that he could prove to be an exception, but even if he’s limited to eight-year terms, he’ll have a chance at surpassing a $250MM guarantee. With a big enough year, nine years and/or $300MM+ could be on the table.

3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros

Bregman would’ve hit free agency in the 2022-23 offseason were it not for a five-year, $100MM extension he signed upon first reaching arbitration. That locked in his first — but very likely not his last — nine-figure contract and still allowed him to hit the open market at a fairly standard point, heading into his age-31 season.

There’s perhaps a perception that Bregman is declining or trending in the wrong direction, as his production has dipped from the MVP-caliber levels he displayed in 2018-19. He also doesn’t have the most appealing batted-ball profile, which we saw work to Cody Bellinger’s detriment in free agency this offseason. Bregman’s 88.6 mph average exit velocity and 38.2% hard-hit rate in 2023 were both pretty pedestrian marks.

One key difference between Bregman and Bellinger, however, is that Bregman has never had gaudy Statcast numbers — even when he was putting up the type of numbers that led to consecutive All-Star nods and top-five MVP finishes in 2018-19. Bellinger, on the other hand, previously had top-of-the-scale exit velo and hard-hit numbers, leading to more questions about whether his resurgent 2023 showing was truly sustainable.

Bregman has always possessed sensational contact skills. He’s never fanned at higher than a 15.5% clip in a full season. The former No. 2 overall draft pick legitimately possesses one of the best hit tools in all of baseball. He couples that with elite plate discipline, too; Bregman has walked at a 12.6% clip in his career and a 13.7% rate dating back to 2018. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in four individual seasons and in the aggregate from 2018-24. His 41-homer campaign from 2019 looks like a clear outlier in what’s now known as the juiced-ball season, but Bregman still popped 48 homers from 2022-23.

Some may question how much power he can manufacture following a potential change of scenery. Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left field — the Crawford Boxes — seems practically tailor-made for Bregman’s fly-ball heavy, pull-side approach. (Or, perhaps alternatively, he reworked his swing to take advantage of that quirk in his home park.)

There’s little doubting that he’s had some home runs that are Crawford Box specials over the years, but a look at Bregman’s career splits don’t paint the picture of someone who is a product of his hitter-friendly home environment. Bregman’s a career .273/.377/.473 hitter in Houston and a .275/.368/.498 hitter on the road. He’s actually hit nine more homers on the road in his career despite having only 64 more plate appearances away from Minute Maid Park than at home.

Defensively, Bregman isn’t an elite third baseman, but he’s posted average or better marks in DRS and OAA nearly every season of his career. There’s no reason to expect a position change in the near future, but if he does need to move off the hot corner at some point, a shift to second base, left field or first base seems feasible for the former shortstop. And as someone who’s been 36% better than average at the plate in his career — and 25% better dating back to 2020 — he has more than enough bat to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond.

A seven- or eight-year deal seems plausible in free agency, and there’s always the chance that a luxury-paying team will gauge his interest in a longer-term deal with a non-premium AAV in order to tamp down the CBT hit. A deal north of $200MM seems plausible for Bregman. The Astros have said at multiple points in the past they’ll make an extension offer at some point, but there haven’t been serious talks on that front yet and Bregman can justifiably seek the type of long-term pact that owner Jim Crane has completely avoided over the years.

4. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

The Polar Bear is raw personified, bashing 40-plus homers on the regular since his 2019 debut. Alonso has not only established himself as one of baseball’s premier sluggers — he’s done so while maintaining a strikeout rate that’s lower than the league average. At a time when many prodigious sluggers are comfortable selling out for power, Alonso has the type of easy, plus-plus power that doesn’t require him to do so. He’s fanned in just 20.7% of his plate appearances dating back to 2021 and popped the fifth-most long balls in baseball along the way. He trails only Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani in that span. All four of those sluggers have whiffed at higher rates than Alonso.

Alonso’s extreme fly-ball approach does lead to a glut of pop-ups and some low BABIPs — though last year’s bottom-of-the-barrel .205 average on balls in play (and .217 average overall) were likely outliers. He’s a career .250 hitter who walks at around a 10% clip — enough to boost his OBP into the .340 range most seasons. Paired with his prodigious power, that’s plenty to make Alonso one of the most feared hitters in the National League.

After debuting as a 24-year-old back in 2019, Alonso is on pace to hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. He’s not unusually young like Soto but is reaching free agency at the same point that’s seen plenty of sluggers get paid. He’ll be two years younger than Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were when signing their current contracts (Freeman’s in free agency, Goldschmidt’s as an extension). That pair of contracts pays those star first basemen $26-27MM annually.

Alonso isn’t as good a pure hitter as either Freeman or Goldschmidt, nor is he the same defensively. He’s consistently graded out as a sub-par defender, per OAA, and a roughly average first baseman by measure of DRS. But Alonso is younger, has more power than either of those two former MVPs, and has the benefit of Mets owner Steve Cohen likely being extra-motivated to keep his franchise slugger. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Alonso follow a similar path to Judge. That’s not to say he’ll sign a $360MM deal — he won’t — but he could reject a qualifying offer, explore what the market has to offer, and then take the top offer back to the Mets and effectively ask that they match it.

A six-year deal would run through Alonso’s age-35 season. Seven years would take him through age-36. Either of those terms feels plausible, as does an AAV in the vicinity of — or even slightly in excess of — the Freeman and Goldschmidt deals.

5. Blake Snell, LHP, Giants*

Will the second time prove to be a charm for Snell? The $200MM+ contract he sought in free agency this past winter never materialized, likely due to a confluence of factors. Beyond the sheer scope of his ask, Snell hit free agency at a time when roughly half the league was experiencing uncertainty regarding its long-term television status. We’re also slated for a record number of CBT payors, including several big spenders — Yankees, Dodgers, Mets — currently paying a 110% tax that made a long-term deal for Snell wholly unpalatable. Further yet, recent high-profile spenders like the Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mets all took steps back in terms of their aggression.

None of that even touches on Snell’s command troubles, though his penchant for issuing free passes hasn’t stopped him from dominating opposing lineups over the past several seasons. Snell is now a two-time Cy Young winner — one of just 22 in MLB history — who’ll spend the 2024 season pitching in an even more spacious home park than he enjoyed in San Diego.

Snell will turn 32 in the coming offseason, so he won’t have age on his side. But he already rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres, meaning he’s ineligible to receive another one at any point in his career. That lack of draft pick compensation will be a bonus, and it’s possible next offseason’s market will bear more favorable circumstances. If the Mets, Red Sox, Rangers or Padres begin spending again and if even a couple of CBT payors are suddenly in position to dip back under the threshold, Snell could find more suitors this time around.

He’s not a lock to hit the market, of course. Snell’s two-year $62MM deal with the Giants allows him to opt out at season’s end, leaving a $30MM player option on the table. So long as he remains healthy and effective, he’ll be a lock to do so. The left-hander ranks 11th in ERA (3.05) and seventh in strikeout rate (31.7%) among qualified big league starters dating back to the 2018 season. He’s had a couple rough seasons along the way, but the broader body of work is genuinely excellent.

As previously mentioned, teams are typically wary of committing beyond a starting pitcher’s age-37 season. For Snell, hitting the market at 32, that’d make it tough to secure a contract lengthier than six years. A six-year deal checking in at $28MM or more would allow Snell to still claim that he topped $200MM in free agent earnings (when combined with his current $32MM in earnings). That type of offer seemingly wasn’t there this time around, but if Snell turns in a third straight dominant season — he had a 2.72 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 2022-23 — someone’s likely going to pony up with a big offer.

6. Max Fried, LHP, Braves

Few starters in baseball have been as consistent as Fried on a year-to-year basis. The former No. 7 overall draft pick has turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons, with the lone exception being a 3.04 mark in 2021. Fried’s strikeout rate has fallen between 22.3% and 25.7% for five straight seasons. His walk rates in that time have landed between 4.4% and 8.5% (though that 8.5% came in 2020’s short season and is something of an outlier, he’s been under 7% in every other full season). His ground-ball rate sits between 51.2% and 57.7% each year.

Fried isn’t an overpowering ace in the sense that he hits triple digits with his heater and strikes out a third of his opponents. He has above-average but not elite velocity, leading to average or slightly better strikeout rates. However, Fried has plus command and ground-ball tendencies, and he dodges hard contact at consistently excellent levels.

Prior to the 2023 season, Fried was also quite durable, ranking 19th in the majors in innings pitched and 21st in games started. That doesn’t include his 10 postseason starts (and four relief outings) — a total of 58 2/3 additional innings. A forearm strain suffered in early May last year, however, knocked Fried out of action for about three months. Though he was characteristically excellent when health — 2.55 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 3.38 SIERA — Fried was limited to 14 starts and 77 2/3 innings.

Proving that forearm strain is behind him will be paramount to his free agent platform. Another 30-plus starts won’t completely eliminate any trepidation stemming from last year’s injury, but another season with considerable missed time — particularly due to an arm injury of any nature — would create cause for clear concern.

Fried has been more durable than Carlos Rodon (six years, $162MM with the Yankees) and has a far lengthier track record of success. He and his reps will likely take aim at toppling that mark in free agency. Braves fans would surely like to see an extension, but it hasn’t happened in the past, and Fried is plenty justified in asking for the type of long-term deal and semi-premium AAV that the Braves have steered clear of in recent years. He seems likelier to follow Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson out the door than he does to receive an extension offer that’s commensurate with his market value.

7. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Cubs*

Bellinger didn’t get the mega-deal he sought this past offseason. Excellent as his 2023 campaign was, there were surely teams wary of his woeful 2021-22 showing on the heels of shoulder surgery. Beyond that, his exit velocity, hard-hit rate and other batted-ball metrics were decidedly pedestrian.

Agent Scott Boras has pointed to Bellinger’s massive decline in strikeout rate as a factor, painting his client as a hitter who adopted a two-strike approach more focused on putting the ball in play than on doing massive damage. There’s surely a blend of truth and garden-variety agent spin woven into that defense.

A repeat of his 2023 production — or anything close to it — would strengthen Bellinger’s case immensely. It’d further distance him from that awful 2021-22 showing, lending further credence to the notion that injuries played a significant role in his perceived decline. And whether Bellinger replicates his numbers by returning to his maximum-damage approach or simply proves that his newer brand of more well-rounded, low-strikeout offense is sustainable, either approach should prove lucrative.

Even though an opt-out would trigger Bellinger’s third trip to free agency, he’ll still be heading into just his age-29 season next year. He can still play a fine center field (or corner outfield, presumably) and remains a good option at first base as well. There’s plenty of defensive and baserunning value to supplement his bat.

Bellinger will pocket $30MM in the first season of his three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs, meaning he’ll be opting out from two years and $50MM. That seems likely, barring a 2021-22-esque collapse or a massive injury. Because of his age, that immense long-term deal that eluded him this past offseason still feels plausible. That he can no longer be saddled with a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last offseason — only strengthens his case.

8. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers

Adames joins Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Dansby Swanson as the latest in a line of high-end shortstops to reach free agency heading into his age-29 season. That trio signed for respective guarantees of $140MM (Tigers), $140MM (Red Sox) and $177MM (Cubs). Adames doesn’t have the individual accolades that group possesses. He’s never been an All-Star like each of that trio has. He hasn’t won Gold Gloves like Swanson and Baez. He hasn’t won the Silver Sluggers that Story has.

Yet despite the lack of hardware, Adames has a strong claim to be valued in similar fashion. It’s true that he had a down year at the plate in 2023, but that was in part driven by a career-low .250 average on balls in play. Since 2020, Adames is a .240/.316/.450 hitter. He’s been 8% better than average overall, by measure of wRC+, and he peaked with a 121 wRC+ (21% better than average) from 2020-21. Adames fanned at a sky-high 36.1% back in 2020 but has reduced that mark considerably; over his past 1300 plate appearances he’s punched out at a worse-than-average but far more manageable 26.2% rate. He struggled badly against lefties early in his career (despite being a right-handed hitter) but has improved against them in recent seasons.

From 2021-23, Adames averaged 26.67 homers per season — topping out at 31 round-trippers in 2022. He’s walked at an above-average but not elite 9.4% rate in his career — including a personal-best 11.1% in 2023. Adames has long been touted as having plus defensive tools, but his execution and consistency were lackluster early on, leading to some middling grades. Over the past two seasons he’s been outstanding, tallying 17 DRS and a flat-out elite 26 OAA.

If Adames can bounce back from last year’s .217/.310/.407 line and turn in something closer to the .251/.319/.471 slash he logged from 2020-22, he’ll have an easy case to be paid comparably to Story, Baez and Swanson. He’s likely to hit the market on the heels of four straight 20-homer campaigns. He’s a plus defender. He’s relatively young. He’s not the most consistent hitter on a year-over-year basis, but that was true of Baez, Story and Swanson. They all got paid. Adames will also draw bonus points for his gregarious personality and leadership skills. Both the Rays and Brewers have lauded him in that regard, and the primary reason Tampa Bay traded him — Wander Franco’s looming emergence — now looks regrettable (even if getting Drew Rasmussen in return for him has yielded plenty of value).

9. Ha-Seong Kim, SS/2B, Padres

Kim came to MLB with great fanfare as a 25-year-old KBO superstar who’d been posted by the Kiwoom Heroes. He signed a four-year, $28MM deal with San Diego that contains a mutual option for a fifth season. Mutual options are generally accounting measures and are almost never exercised by both parties. In Kim’s instance, it’s a no-brainer to decline his end of the option and hit free agency in search of a deal that could pay him three to four times his original MLB guarantee.

While Kim’s rookie season didn’t live up to the hype, he’s since acclimated to MLB quite nicely. Now 28, he posted a .256/.338/.391 batting line (109 wRC+) from 2022-23. His power has increased in each MLB season, resulting in a career-high 17 homers last year, and he swiped a hefty 38 bases in 47 tries for the Friars last season. Kim’s walk rate has climbed every MLB season as well, topping out at a robust 12% in 2023, and after fanning in 23.8% of his plate appearances as a rookie he’s dropped that mark to 18.5% in 2022-23.

Decent power, strong on-base skills and plus speed give Kim plenty of appeal, but his glove is perhaps his greatest selling point. Kim is an elite defensive infielder capable of handling any of second base, shortstop or third base. He won his first Gold Glove for his play at second base last season, though that’s unlikely to be his last. (He also won a Gold Glove in his final three seasons of KBO play.)

There’s no defensive metric that pegs Kim below average at any of those three positions. He’s logged more than 1000 innings at second base, nearly 600 at third base and more than 1600 at shortstop. Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating agree that he’s excellent at all three. The Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract and moved him to second base just one year later despite Bogaerts posting decent numbers at short in 2023. Kim has racked up 23 DRS and 10 OAA in his 1600+ innings at shortstop. He has fluid infield actions, sure hands and is a regular source of highlight-reel defense.

Kim doesn’t have a strong batted-ball profile, but it’s not out of the question that he could crack 20 homers, walk in more than 10% of his plate appearances, swipe 40 bags and play Gold Glove defense this season. He’ll play all of the 2025 season at 29 years old. A nine-figure contract isn’t out of the question.

10. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Diamondbacks

As the old adage goes, if at first you don’t succeed — hire a new agent and try again. Montgomery languished in free agency all winter, never landing the six- or seven-year contract he was seeking. He took a one-year, $25MM deal with the D-backs that’ll afford him a player option at $20-25MM basically just for staying healthy. The contract wasn’t finalized before Opening Day, meaning Montgomery can’t receive a qualifying offer this winter. Barring a major injury, he’ll likely decline that player option and return to the market.

Montgomery, 31, has made at least 30 starts in each of the past three seasons. In that time, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with a 22.5% strikeout rate, a 6.2% walk rate, a 44.5% ground-ball rate and just 1.00 HR/9. His 2023 campaign was the finest of his career, featuring a personal-best 188 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, plus another 31 innings of 2.90 ERA ball in the postseason — a strong performance that helped push the Rangers to their first-ever World Series title.

Though he doesn’t miss bats at an elite level, Montgomery is better than average in just about every meaningful category for starting pitchers and has been a workhorse since his 2020 return from Tommy John surgery. We at MLBTR erred in thinking a six-year deal was attainable heading into the 2023-24 offseason. Another typical Montgomery season could put him in position for a strong four-year or perhaps a five-year deal at a lighter AAV than we predicted last offseason. He should be able to top teammate Eduardo Rodriguez’s four-year, $80MM contract — and a deal in the $100-110MM range over five years doesn’t feel out of reach if Monty continues at his recent trajectory.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Walker Buehler, Matt Chapman*, Gerrit Cole^, Jack Flaherty, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Frankie Montas, Tyler O’Neill, Luis Severino, Max Scherzer*, Gleyber Torres, Justin Verlander*, Christian Walker

^=Cole is currently on the 60-day IL and expected to be out into June. He can opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his contract at season’s end, though if he signals his intent to do so, the Yankees can override his opt-out by tacking on a tenth year at another $36MM. Because Cole is currently injured and because the Yankees can effectively veto his opt-out, we’re not including him on the initial version of our rankings. If, as the season wears on, he’s pitching well enough to trigger that opt-out and there’s talk of the Yankees allowing him to walk, he could land on future installments of the list.

Brown: Astros, Alex Bregman Will Discuss Extension “At Some Point”

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Speaking to reporters on Thursday (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com), Astros general manager Dana Brown said that the team has not yet broached the subject of an extension with Alex Bregman. This aligns with comments Bregman made this spring, telling reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) that he had not received an offer and did not expect to before Opening Day.

However, Brown added that he still plans to discuss a new contract with his third baseman. “At some point,” the GM stated, “we will have some discussions with Bregman and make him an offer” (per McTaggart).

While there is often a long way to go between an initial offer and an agreement, this is a reassuring update for Astros fans hoping the two-time All-Star signs a long-term deal with the club. Brown made similar comments regarding Bregman ahead of spring training, which is often considered the best time for extension discussions. Although the spring has wrapped up and the season has begun, the executive’s more recent remarks clarify that the Astros are open to negotiations over the next several months. For his part, Bregman has also expressed a willingness to allow his agent, Scott Boras, to negotiate with Houston during the season (per Rome).

Bregman made back-to-back All-Star appearances in 2018 and ’19. He slashed .291/.409/.561 with 72 home runs across those two seasons, finishing in the top five in AL MVP voting each year. Leg injuries limited him to 133 games between 2020 and ’21, and although he has stayed healthy ever since, he has never quite returned to his 2018-19 form. Nonetheless, Bregman has remained a highly productive player, thanks to excellent plate discipline, plus power, and a capable glove at the hot corner. As he enters his age-30 season, he is still one of the better third basemen in the American League. With another strong showing in 2024, he will be one of the top free agents available if he hits the open market this coming winter.

Brown also told reporters that Kyle Tucker will receive an extension offer, though he noted that the two sides are not engaged in “deep discussions” (per McTaggart). The GM had previously expressed a desire to extend Tucker, but his words on Thursday suggest a further degree of certainty that the Astros will in fact make an offer. 

Tucker has blossomed into one of the better corner outfielders in baseball over the past four seasons. He won a Gold Glove in 2022, a Silver Slugger in 2023, and made the AL All-Star team both years. However, extending Tucker is less pressing business for the Astros; the right fielder won’t reach free agency until after the 2025 campaign. 

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