Alex Bregman

Astros third baseman Alex Bregman spoke to reporters, including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, this afternoon and revealed that his camp has not yet received an extension offer from the Astros and that he does not expect to receive one before Opening Day this week. Bregman made clear, however, that he would be willing to negotiate during the season if the club were to approach him with an offer.

That Houston hasn’t made an offer to Bregman at this point is something of a surprise, given comments from both club owner Jim Crane and GM Dana Brown earlier this winter indicated that the club has every intention of making Bregman an offer before he hits free agency this November. That Bregman is willing to negotiate in-season keeps the door to the sides making progress on extension talks at some point this season open, though Spring Training is generally regarded by both players and club officials as the ideal time for contract negotiations, lest they become a distraction during the season.

Brown has long been candid about his desire to lock up the club’s core players long term, and since then has successfully extended the contracts of both right-hander Cristian Javier and, more recently, second baseman and franchise face Jose Altuve. The club reportedly explored extensions with both southpaw Framber Valdez and outfielder Kyle Tucker last offseason along with Javier, though those talks ultimately did not result in a deal. This winter, club officials have outwardly interest in retaining Bregman long-term in their public comments, with Brown even indicating last month that the club plans to reopen negotiations with Tucker but will likely prioritize Bregman for the time being.

Despite those comments indicating the club hopes to retain Bregman long term, the club appeared to prioritize extending Altuve over Bregman this winter with reports indicating that the Astros were skeptical of their chances regarding a deal with Bregman. Crane’s comments on the matter earlier this winter even acknowledged this, as the owner admitted that Bregman’s age makes him “a little different circumstance” to Altuve, who would have hit free agency prior to his age-35 season in contrast to Bregman, who will play the 2025 season at just 31 years old.

If the Astros are concerned about they’re ability to make an offer Bregman would consider accepting, they’re somewhat justified in their concerns. Third basemen of a similar caliber to Bregman have routinely found offers north of $200MM either in free agency or via extensions, as demonstrated by deals inked by players such as Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, and Anthony Rendon. By contrast, Marcus Semien’s seven-year $175MM pact with the Rangers during the 2021-22 offseason is the high-water mark for second basemen in free agency. That wasn’t far off from where they were ultimately willing to go for Altuve, who signed a five-year, $125MM extension last month.

Even if Bregman was willing to accept a deal with a similar AAV to Altuve’s recent extension, the disparity between their respective ages presents another hurdle. Six-plus year deals for infielders in their early thirties have become commonplace in recent years, as demonstrated by pacts such as those signed by Semien, Rendon, Kris Bryant, and even D.J. LeMahieu in recent years. It would hardly be a shock if Bregman was looking for a similar length, and the six-year, $115MM extension the club signed Yordan Alvarez to represents the only pact longer than five years in franchise history. A six- or seven-year deal worth $25MM or more, as Bregman might require to forgo free agency, would be a major departure from the club’s previous way of doing business.

On the other hand, the club figures to see more than $100MM come off the books during the coming winter, per RosterResource. Much of that money figures to go to arbitration-level players such as Tucker and Valdez, both of whom are set to earn eight-figure salaries in their final trip through arbitration next year, though even after accounting for that its certainly feasible the club could afford to offer Bregman a hefty deal. It’s also worth noting that Houston has expressed a new willingness to flex their financial muscle this winter. The club is set to pay into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history this year, and the club’s five-year deal with ace closer Josh Hader is the sort of top-of-the-market expenditure the club has tended to shy away from under Crane’s ownership. If these changes are a sign of a new approach, rather than an all-in effort to contend while the club’s current core remain under control, it’s certainly feasible that the club could work out a deal to retain Bregman at some point, whether that be during the season or after he hits free agency in the fall.

Feb. 8: The Astros spoke to Boras yesterday, GM Dana Brown said Thursday (X link via Rome). Brown stressed that there’s no timetable for extension talks but echoed Crane’s comments that the team “will make an [extension] offer” to Bregman.

Feb. 7: The Astros locked up one franchise icon yesterday, perhaps for the remainder of his career, when signing second baseman Jose Altuve to a five-year, $125MM deal that runs through his age-39 campaign. Altuve’s extension status has been a talking point for the past year, as the eight-time All-Star had been slated to reach free agency this coming offseason. Third baseman Alex Bregman finds himself in a similar scenario, entering the final season of a nine-figure extension and on the cusp of free agency. However, talks with the 29-year-old Bregman are another beast entirely — a reality owner Jim Crane acknowledged when speaking to Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle.

While Crane candidly stated that the organization will “definitely” make a long-term offer to Bregman before he reaches the market, he also acknowledged that Bregman’s age makes him “a little different circumstance.” That’s something of an understatement. Bregman, who like Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation, is currently slated to head into free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Altuve would’ve turned 34 in May of the first season of a potential free agent deal.

That gap in age sets vastly different market expectations — as does the difference in position. In recent offseasons, the market hasn’t rewarded pure second basemen at nearly the same levels as third basemen. And with Bregman hitting the market prior to his age-31 season, a deal ranging from seven to nine years in length seems plausible in a way that simply wouldn’t have been the case for Altuve entering his age-34 season.

A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights the discrepancy. Prior to Altuve’s new deal, the largest free-agent deal or extension inked by any second baseman in the past five years was Marcus Semien’s $175MM contract and Andres Gimenez’s $106.75MM extension. Flip the position to third base, and free agency has provided $300MM and $245MM deals to Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon, respectively, while the extension market has seen Austin Riley, Nolan Arenado and Rafael Devers all eclipse $200MM (and $300MM, in Devers’ case). When switching to age-based criteria, Aaron Judge’s $360MM contract began with his age-31 season, whereas no position player contract beginning at age 34 had topped Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM deal.

At today’s press conference to formally announce the Altuve extension, Boras was asked about the possibility of a Bregman extension. As one would expect, he didn’t rule anything out, telling reporters: “Alex has made it clear that he’s open to listening to whatever the Astros have to say” (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

But, as we’ve previously noted here at MLBTR and as Rome outlined concisely in his latest mailbag column (which Astros fans, in particular, will want to check out in full), the type of commitment it’ll require to sign Bregman long-term isn’t one that the Astros have been willing to make in the past. Owner Jim Crane has never signed a player for more than a $150MM guarantee and has never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year deal. Bregman, if he has a “typical” year in line with his career levels, figures to be positioned to top both of those figures by a wide margin.

Even assuming Bregman rejects a qualifying offer — which seems like a given if he produces at his usual levels — a seven-year deal would seem like the bare minimum, and a lengthier pact would be considered likely. Bregman would be the clear top third baseman on next year’s market and could wind up being considered the No. 2 or No. 3 overall free agent behind Juan Soto. He’ll be in a tier alongside stars like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames, among others, in that regard. Boras touched on this today, telling the Astros beat that because of the age at which they signed their previous contracts and the age at which they are (or were, in Altuve’s case) scheduled to hit free agency, that Bregman faces “a more normal free agency dynamic” than Altuve would have (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

From a payroll standpoint, the Astros could certainly make a Bregman deal work — even after inking Altuve. Roster Resource projects a bit more than $117MM in guaranteed money on the 2025 books. Adding in a new Bregman contract and arbitration raises for stars Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez could add as much as $65-75MM to that number, but Houston is set to trot out a $240MM payroll in 2024 and will exceed the luxury tax threshold this year. Extending Bregman would mean committing to having four players — Bregman, Altuve, Hader and Alvarez — all locked up through at least the 2028 season, but the frontloaded nature of Altuve’s contract will mean he’s only earning a $10MM salary in each of those seasons. As such, it’d be plenty plausible to have Altuve ($10MM), Hader ($19MM), Alvarez ($26MM) and Bregman and have that quartet account for well shy of $100MM.

An extension for Bregman shouldn’t be waved off as a sheer impossibility, but it’d take a change in the club’s contractual norms for one to come together this spring. Houston fans can point to the fact that the Josh Hader signing represented just that sort of philosophical shift, as it was a much larger deal than Crane has typically been willing to commit to a free agent, but a Bregman extension would represent an even larger departure from prior norms, given the dollars at stake.

The Astros and general manager Dana Brown have been open about their interest in signing extensions with infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, but the former may be more likely than the latter. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, a high-ranking executive with the club said they want Altuve for the rest of his career but are highly skeptical of getting something done with Bregman as well.

Bregman, 30 in March, already signed one extension with the Astros. Going into the 2019 season, he and the club agreed to a five-year pact with a $100MM guarantee. He already had a 2019 salary in place, with that deal covering the 2020-2024 seasons. That leaves just one year and $28.5MM left on the contract.

When pen was put to paper that time, Bregman was in between his two best seasons. In 2018, he launched 31 home runs and stole 10 bases, leading to a batting line of .286/.394/.532 and wRC+ of 157. He got strong grades for his defense at third and even played a passable shortstop for part of the year, leading to 8.0 wins above replacement per FanGraphs and a fifth-place finish in the voting for American League Most Valuable Player. The next year, he only stole five bases but his homer tally jumped to 41 and his on-base percentage was almost 30 points higher. That was the “juiced ball” season so his wRC+ only increased slightly to 167, but he finished second to Mike Trout in MVP voting that year.

Since then, Bregman has settled in a bit below that level, still a very good player but not quite MVP caliber. The past two seasons have seen him combine for 48 home runs and a .261/.364/.447 batting line, which translates to a wRC+ of 131. He produced 9.8 fWAR over the two years combined.

Though that technically qualifies as diminished production relative to his 2018-2019 peak, it’s still excellent work overall. Only 21 position players had a higher fWAR tally in 2022-2023, with Bregman fourth among regular third basemen behind just José Ramírez, Manny Machado and Austin Riley.

As of right now, Bregman is set to hit free agency in advance of his age-31 season, which still lines him up for a solid payday. Marcus Semien was also an above-average infielder who generally produced a bit below MVP levels when he got $175MM from the Rangers two years ago. Bregman’s former teammate George Springer was able to get $150MM going into his age-31 season. Freddie Freeman nabbed an MVP award in 2020 but was a bit limited as a free agent since he only played first base and was going into his age-32 season, though he nonetheless got himself $162MM.

Something in that range should be attainable for Bregman but it may not be from the Astros. The club has generally avoided long-term deals that run deep into a player’s career, letting guys like Springer, Carlos Correa and others walk away and get paid elsewhere. That strategy has continued to work out for them so far, as they just made the ALCS for a seventh straight season, but there are some pivot points coming up. Altuve and Bregman are both set to become free agents after 2024, with Justin Verlander perhaps joining them depending on his vesting option. One year later, it will be Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, José Abreu and others.

With such a significant chunk of their core nearing free agency, it’s not surprising that they want to pivot from their standard playbook in order to try to keep that mass exodus from coming to fruition. Things can always change but it seems the current feeling is that Altuve will get done but Bregman won’t. The club already has some significant deals for younger players on the books going forward, with Yordan Alvarez signed through 2028, Cristian Javier through 2027 and Lance McCullers Jr. 2026. Perhaps those deals, and a theoretical Altuve contract, don’t leave much room for Bregman. Or perhaps Bregman simply wants to test the open market after having already signed one significant extension and banking nine figures.

It’s unclear if there are any strict timelines on negotiations, with Spring Training being the most common time for extensions to be hammered out. At this time of year, clubs usually prefer to focus on bringing in new players from free agency and trades, before pivoting back to talks with their incumbent players in February and March. However, the Astros don’t seem to have a massive to-do list this winter, with Brown recently listing backup catcher and the bullpen as priorities. Perhaps that gives them a bit of breathing room this winter to have some detailed talks with Scott Boras, who represents both Altuve and Bregman, to see if anything can get done. Boras will certainly be busy though, as he is representing a pile of this winter’s free agents, including Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and many more.