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Poll: Who’s The Best Starting Pitcher Remaining?

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The top remaining free agent starter came off the board last night, when right-hander Nick Pivetta agreed with the Padres on a backloaded four-year deal that includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons. It’s a major shift from last winter, when top-of-the-market lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery both lingered on the market deep into March and ultimately missed the start of the season while making up for lost Spring Training reps in the minor leagues. This winter, almost all of the top free agents have already landed somewhere as teams begin their first official workouts, with just five of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents of the offseason (and zero of the top 20) still unsigned.

Four of the five remaining free agents in our Top 50 are starting pitchers. None of them compare to Snell and Montgomery’s stature as free agents last winter, or even Pivetta’s stature as the last mid-market arm available in this year’s market. Even so, each is a clearly useful arm who would help the majority of pitching staffs around baseball this year if signed. Which one should pitching-hungry teams be most interested in, however? A look at all four, in the order they appear on the Top 50:

Andrew Heaney

Heaney is entering his age-34 campaign in 2025 in a different position than his previous trips through free agency. He signed with the Dodgers prior to the 2022 season as a bounce-back candidate coming off a disastrous 2021 campaign, and after delivering excellent results for L.A. in 72 2/3 innings he signed a fresh deal with the Rangers as a risky but high-upside mid-rotation addition. His performance over two years in Texas didn’t play to that high-risk, high-reward narrative that surrounded his free agency, however, as he performed as a fairly run-of-the-mill back of the rotation arm.

In 307 1/3 innings of work for Texas over the past two years, Heaney pitched to a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His 23.2% strikeout rate during that time is a far cry from not only the incredible 35.5% rate he flashed with the Dodgers, but also 26% clip he struck out opponents at from 2016 to 2021. Heaney has emerged from years of injury questions to serve as a fairly steady source of innings, with his 160 frames in 2024 being the most he’s posted in a season since 2018. There’s some room for upside in the veteran’s profile as well, with gains in walk rate (5.9%) and barrel rate (8.3%) last year suggesting he may be able to improve upon last year’s results.

Jose Quintana

Entering his age-36 season, Quintana has the most impressive resume of the pitchers discussed here. He’s a former All-Star who delivered front-of-the-rotation production at his peak with the White Sox. While those days are long behind him, he’s remained effective into his mid-30s. The southpaw signed with the Mets on the heels of a terrific 2022 with the Pirates and Cardinals where he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 2.99 FIP in 32 starts. The results in New York weren’t quite that good, but he was still capable of delivering solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation production in Queens with a 3.70 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.24 FIP in 246 innings of work.

Those results would be valuable in the No. 4 or 5 spot of most rotations, but a look under the hood reveals a somewhat more worrying profile. Quintana has struck out just 18.8% of opponents in each of the past two campaigns. His typically sharp command waned a bit in 2024, with an 8.8% walk rate that clocked in slightly north of average. That left him with the third-worst K-BB% among 58 qualified starters in the majors last year, ahead of only Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. On the other hand, his 47.4% groundball rate was tenth-best, and only six qualified starters allowed line drives at a lower clip. If he can continue those levels of contact management, it’s easy to imagine him having success in front of a strong defense.

Kyle Gibson

Gibson is the prototypical innings eater, a back-of-the-rotation arm who has posted an ERA below 4.00 just three times in his entire career who makes up for that with volume. Besides his half-season as a rookie back in 2013 and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Gibson has made at least 25 starts with at least 147 1/3 innings of work in every single season of his career. He’s averaged just over 30 starts and approximately 175 innings per season in those years. It’s a level of volume that’s hard to find in the the current era of pitching, and any team with instability in their rotation would stand to benefit from plugging Gibson into the mix.

However, Gibson’s status as one of the league’s more reliable arms comes with very limited upside. In 12 years as a big league pitcher, the right-hander has eclipsed 3.0 fWAR just once. He’s also begun to show some minor signs of decline that can’t be entirely ignored headed into his age-37 campaign; his 9.4% walk rate was elevated relative to his career norms, but more concerning was the 9.2% barrel rate he allowed that was tenth-worst among all qualified starters last year. Last year’s 13 quality starts were also the fewest he’s posted in a full season since 2019.

Spencer Turnbull

Turnbull stands out among this crowd of veterans as the youngest arm, entering his age-32 campaign this year. The righty also has by far the shortest track record of the four arms discussed here, with just 356 2/3 total innings in the majors under his belt across parts of six big league seasons. Once a promising young rotation prospect with the Tigers, Turnbull’s career was turned upside down by injuries. He hasn’t thrown more than 56 2/3 innings in a single season since 2019.

For all his lack of volume, Turnbull was excellent when healthy for the Phillies last year. He struck out 26.1% of opponents en route to a 2.65 ERA in a swing role, and while his 3.85 FIP and 3.67 SIERA are both less impressive they still paint him as a well above-average pitcher when healthy. Of all the pitchers listed here, Turnbull has the largest injury track record, but he’s also perhaps the best on a rate basis and the likeliest to deliver results that could put him in line for meaningful playoff innings.

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While the four pitchers discussed were the ones who made the cut for MLBTR’s Top 50 back in November, other interesting starters also remain available. Lance Lynn has flashed front-of-the-rotation production at points in his career and had a solid 3.84 ERA in 23 starts last year, but has also struggled badly at times and will pitch his age-38 season this year. Jakob Junis has pitched more out of the bullpen than the rotation in recent years but sports a strong 3.35 ERA in the past two seasons and started 17 games for the Giants in 2022. John Means is clearly quite talented but has only pitched 52 innings across the past three seasons due to multiple arm surgeries. He’ll be sidelined into the summer after UCL surgery last June.

Which of free agency’s remaining starters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:

Who's the best starting pitcher still on the market?
Jose Quintana 37.74% (1,481 votes)
Spencer Turnbull 22.63% (888 votes)
Andrew Heaney 20.80% (816 votes)
Kyle Gibson 14.96% (587 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 3.87% (152 votes)
Total Votes: 3,924

Free Agent Faceoff: Jose Quintana vs Andrew Heaney

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The starting pitching options available in free agency have begun to dwindle with the start of Spring Training less than a month away, but a few interesting options still remain available. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta are the top names still available in free agency at this point, though they figure to come with a high annual salary in the case of Flaherty and cost their new club draft capital as a qualified free agent in the case of Pivetta. Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer stands alone at the top of the market for veterans likely to accept one year deals after Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander all found homes earlier this winter.

Overlooked in this free agent class, however, is a pair of solid mid-rotation lefties. Veterans Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana have garnered little if any buzz in the rumor mill to this point, but at this late stage in the offseason they stand out among the remaining crop of starters as some of the more reliable options still available. Ranked #25 and #31 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, Heaney and Quintana figure to be among the best arms available for clubs looking to bolster their rotation that don’t have room in the budget for a player like Flaherty or Pivetta. Even Scherzer could land a higher annual salary.

Quintana and Heaney have a number of striking similarities. From 2019 to 2021, both players posted an ERA north of 5.00 in less than 300 innings of work as they struggled to stay healthy and effective. Both players then appeared to take a major step forward in 2022, however, and since then have proven to be a reliable mid-rotation option despite occasional injury issues persisting. In Heaney’s case, his 2021 breakout came as a member of the Dodgers. While he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings of work due to injuries that year, he was dominant when healthy enough to pitch with a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and an incredible 35.5% strikeout rate.

That breakout led Heaney to sign a two-year deal with the Rangers in free agency and, though he hasn’t quite reached that level of elite production since then, he’s managed to stay healthy and provide solid results to Texas. In 307 1/3 innings for the Rangers over the past two years, the lefty has pitched to a roughly league average 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to just 23.2% during his time in Dallas, but even in spite of that, he’s shown positive signs for the future. That’s particularly true of the 2024 season, when he cut his walk rate from 9.4% to a career-best 5.9% while his barrel rate dipped from 10.2% down to just 8.3%. Those improvements in batted ball results and walk rate allowed Heaney to post a 3.95 SIERA last year, good for 32nd among starters with 160 innings of work last year and sandwiched between Seth Lugo and Sean Manaea on the leaderboard.

By contrast, Quintana continued to get above average results this year with a 3.75 ERA (105 ERA+) in 31 starts for the Mets but started to show troubling signs in terms of peripherals. Quintana struck out just 18.8% of opponents for the second year in a row in 2024, but saw his walk rate climb to 8.8% while his barrel rate crept up to 6.7%. All that left Quintana with a 4.57 SIERA that ranks just 53rd among qualified starters. Father Time is also on Heaney’s side, as he’s roughly two-and-a-half years younger than Quintana, who will celebrate his 36th birthday later this month. Of course, that aforementioned barrel rate is still better than Heaney’s figure from 2024 and his career-best 47.4% groundball rate suggests he may be able to continue limiting damage and outperforming his peripherals going forward.

It’s also worth noting that Quintana has the stronger overall track record than Heaney. Although he experienced a blip in productiveness from 2019 to 2021, he had seven above-average seasons under his belt prior to that and since then has posted an excellent 3.39 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP in 411 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s struck out just 19.4% of opponents in that time, that ERA is tied for 22nd among qualified starters since the start of the 2022 campaign, on par with the likes of Dylan Cease and George Kirby. While it seems unlikely that Quintana would be able to replicate that elite production going forward without improving on his strikeout and walk numbers, it’s possible his grounder-heavy profile could work quite well in front of a strong defense.

If your club was looking to add a veteran southpaw to its rotation, which would you prefer? Would you value Heaney’s relative youth and stronger peripherals in his platform campaign? Or would you overlook Quintana’s age and concerning peripherals in favor of his more consistent track record and knack for keeping the ball on the ground? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Would You Rather Have For 2025?
Jose Quintana 62.01% (2,027 votes)
Andrew Heaney 37.99% (1,242 votes)
Total Votes: 3,269

Athletics Risk MLBPA Grievance Without Further Payroll Increases

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As they look to ramp up payroll ahead of their impending move to Las Vegas, the Athletics inked right-hander Luis Severino to the largest deal in franchise history last week as they look to capture the attention of a new city during their temporary move to West Sacramento. With that being said, a report from Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on Monday emphasized that getting fans into seats in 2025 isn’t the only motivation behind the club’s decision to increase spending. The duo reports that without a substantial increase to the club’s payroll this winter, the A’s run the risk of inviting a grievance from the MLB Players Association.

That risk of a grievance is due to the fact that A’s will collect 100% of their revenue-sharing dollars in 2025 for the first time under the current collective bargaining agreement. While the team received just 25% of their allotment in 2022, that figured increased to 50% in 2023 and 75% in 2024 before finally reaching 100% in 2025. The issue for the A’s stems from the fact that the CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll.

Drellich and Rosenthal go on to report that A’s could receive $70MM or more in revenue sharing after drawing the worst attendance figures in baseball last year, which would mean the club needs to reach a player payroll of $105MM or more for luxury tax purposes in 2025 in order to avoid risking a grievance. RosterResource currently projects the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $78.5MM for 2025, meaning they would need to add roughly $26.5MM in player payroll to avoid falling below that 150% figure. It’s worth noting that these numbers are inexact, as well, and if the A’s receive a larger revenue sharing check than currently expected they may wind up needing to float a luxury tax payroll of more than $105MM in order to avoid a grievance.

For a club that has struggled to lure in free agents this winter due to the fact that they’ll spend the next three seasons using a Triple-A stadium as their home ballpark, reaching that level of spending could be complicated. A separate report from Rosenthal suggests that the A’s have interest in adding another free agent starting pitcher alongside Severino, though he adds that such a signing would likely be a veteran pitcher from a lower tier of free agency. Rosenthal specifically name-checks Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Andrew Heaney as potential options the A’s could consider if any of them were willing to pitch in West Sacramento next season.

Of the three, Heaney was predicted to land the largest contract on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list with a two-year, $24MM pact. That $12MM AAV would bump the club’s luxury tax payroll up to $90.5MM, putting them just $15MM away from reaching their estimated $105MM target. The tough sell of pitching in West Sacramento and the projection-beating deals signed by other pitchers this winter could leave the A’s in a position where they’d need to offer more than that $12MM annual figure in order to land a veteran hurler, but they’d surely still need to find other ways to add salary in order to reach $105MM even if they signed a veteran starter to a deal that significantly outpaced projections.

Free agency isn’t the only avenue for adding talent (and payroll), of course. The trade market is one avenue for adding MLB talent that the club has been candid about exploring this winter. Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger and Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery are two high-priced players known to be available in the rumor mill who the club could swing deals for if they want to immediately put themselves in position to avoid a grievance in one fell swoop, but there’s a large swath of other players expected to be available this winter who could add to the club’s payroll in a less drastic fashion. Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Cardinals southpaw Steven Matz are among a handful of possible trade candidates who will make $10MM or more in 2025.

Another route the A’s could take to raise the luxury tax payroll that wouldn’t require convincing a free agent to sign or swinging a trade with another club would be signing a player already in the organization to an extension. Reporting over the weekend indicated that the Athletics have interest in negotiating an extension with breakout slugger Brent Rooker. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rooker to earn $5.1MM in his first trip through arbitration this winter, and any extension that would guarantee Rooker an AAV higher than that $5.1MM figure would increase the club’s luxury tax payroll. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted over the weekend, it’s possible that even if the A’s and Rooker aren’t interested in agreeing on a long-term deal that buys out some of Rooker’s free agent years, an extension that covers his arbitration years could offer certainty to both sides. Such an extension would come with an additional boon for the A’s in light of their current predicament by surely raising the AAV on Rooker’s 2025 contract, though no realistic extension could be expected to raise the club’s tax payroll by the $26.5MM needed to avoid risking a grievance by itself.

Tigers Interested In Walker Buehler, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney

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It’s no secret the Tigers are looking to improve their rotation over the offseason, and three more potential targets for the team have emerged. According to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, the Tigers are showing interest in right-handers Walker Buehler and Kyle Gibson and left-hander Andrew Heaney.

Buehler is the biggest name of that trio. Although he’s coming off a difficult, injury-plagued season, he was an ace-caliber pitcher when last healthy in 2021. Indeed, from 2018-21, he pitched to 2.82 ERA and 3.56 SIERA over 564 innings. His 14.4 FanGraphs WAR ranked 14th among all pitchers in that time. Still just 30 years old and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, he is widely considered one of the top bounce-back candidates on the free agent market. It helps his case that he looked excellent in the postseason. After a rough outing in the NLDS, he pitched 10 scoreless innings between the NLCS and the World Series.

Precisely because Buehler comes with more upside than Gibson or Heaney, he could be looking for a longer-term commitment. The MLBTR staff predicted a one-year, $15 million contract for Buehler at the beginning of the offseason but noted that a two-year deal with an opt-out was a possibility. Petzold also remarked Buehler could be seeking a two-year deal with an opt-out this winter, and he suggested that might be more than the Tigers are willing to give. Ideally, they’re looking to offer a one-year deal.

In that case, Detroit could pivot to Gibson or Heaney. Of the two, Gibson seems more likely to sign a one-year contract. Both pitchers appeared on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list: Heaney at no. 25 and Gibson at no. 41. Our staff predicted a two-year, $24 million deal for Heaney and a one-year $13 million deal for Gibson. The slightly higher AAV prediction for Gibson reflects his longer track record of success, but at 37 years old, he’s unlikely to command a multi-year deal. Heaney, on the other hand, is young enough (he’ll turn 34 next June) that he could feasibly land a two-year commitment, especially on a market that has been quite kind to mid-tier starting pitchers thus far. Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Matthew Boyd all signed for more guaranteed money than MLBTR predicted.

Gibson and Heaney are both coming off similar 2024 seasons. Gibson made 30 starts with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA, while Heaney made 32 appearances (31 starts) with a 4.28 ERA and 3.95 SIERA. Heaney’s underlying numbers were a little promising – he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate – but Gibson has been significantly more consistent and durable throughout his career. Ultimately, both are capable back-of-the-rotation starters but not much more. Either would raise Detroit’s floor, but neither would do much to lift the team’s ceiling.

If a pitcher like Gibson or Heaney is the only starter the Tigers add, they’ll need to hope that some of their younger arms step up to help ace Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation. That includes Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and potentially top prospect Jackson Jobe. More arms that could make up the rest of Detroit’s starting staff include Keider Montero, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda. In other words, this team isn’t short on back-end depth. What they could really use is a proven, postseason-caliber starter. However, such an acquisition seems far less likely. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, the Tigers have “some interest” in a reunion with Jack Flaherty, but the word “some” speaks volumes in that report.

Ultimately, despite their postseason appearance in 2024, it seems as if the Tigers aren’t planning to be particularly aggressive this winter. As Petzold points out, their interest in signing a starter to a one-year deal mirrors their strategy from the previous two offseasons, in which they signed Michael Lorenzen and Flaherty. There’s no doubt it paid off in both cases; Lorenzen and Flaherty both pitched well over a few months with Detroit before they were flipped for prospects at the trade deadline. However, the Tigers were still in the middle of a rebuild when they signed Lorenzen ahead of the 2023 season and Flaherty ahead of ’24. That’s no longer the case, so it’s odd to see they’re still looking for stopgaps rather than trying to sign a more impactful pitcher to a multi-year deal.

In the same vein, Petzold suggests the Tigers are interested in first baseman Christian Walker but says they might back off if “big-market teams” are also bidding on his services. Moreover, Petzold adds that they are unlikely to sign any free agents who rejected a qualifying offer. Walker is among that group. While the Tigers have been linked to Alex Bregman, who also received a qualifying offer, Petzold writes that they would probably only pursue him if he were still available entering spring training and his price tag plummeted. As is the case with Walker, the Tigers are interested but not interested enough to enter a bidding war. In other words, it seems as if they’d only be willing to sign a QO free agent at a significant discount.

Tigers Seeking Starting Pitching, Have “Some Interest” In Flaherty Reunion

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As the Tigers look to build on the scorching finish to the season that delivered them a trip to the ALDS in 2024, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reported yesterday that the club is expected to target “at least” one starting pitcher this winter. With that being said, Stavenhagen cautions that the club is hoping to stick with short-term additions who can be had on one- or two-year contracts. Stavenhagen also suggests that the club could be hesitant to land a pitcher who received a Qualifying Offer this winter due to the associated loss of draft capital.

That doesn’t mean the club is completely unwilling to explore higher-tier options, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported this afternoon that the club has at least “some interest” in a reunion with right-hander Jack Flaherty. The early movement on the free agent market has generally been focused on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation, ranging from lefty Blake Snell’s massive five-year deal with the Dodgers to smaller moves like the Angels’ signing of right-hander Kyle Hendricks on a one-year pact. Flaherty, who signed with the Tigers last winter and had a resurgent half-season with Detroit before being traded to L.A. over the summer, is the best pitcher remaining on the market who is unattached to draft pick compensation.

While pairing Flaherty with ace lefty Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation is surely a tantalizing idea to fans and would help fortify the Tigers after their surprise return to contention this fall, it’s also possible that they’ll simply look to sign “the next” Flaherty instead of pursuing a reunion; while Rosenthal suggests Flaherty figures to land a deal in the four-to-six year range, Stavenhagen notes that the club hopes to find a “high-upside” pitcher on the market who they believe they can help maximize as they did with Flaherty this past year rather than pay a premium for more established talent. Right-handers Walker Buehler and Michael Soroka as well as southpaw Andrew Heaney could be among the pitchers of that sort on Detroit’s radar this winter.

Stavenhagen goes as far as to note that Buehler could be the club’s “white whale” this winter, but adds that there’s questions about whether or not he’ll need to accept the sort of short-term deal the Tigers are looking to make this winter. That’s a valid concern, as Buehler has received plenty of interest from all corners of the league with the A’s, Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Mets among the teams with reported interest in the righty’s services. MLBTR ranked Buehler 37th on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month while predicting a one-year, $15MM pact for the righty. That’s surely a price tag the Tigers would be eager to have him at, but given the widespread interest he’s drawn to this point and the hot market for starting pitching that has seen multiple players exceed expectations it wouldn’t be a shock to see Buehler land a multi-year deal even after posting a subpar 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts for the Dodgers this year. If Buehler’s market does end up running that hot, it could be hard to justify targeting him rather than spending a bit more to secure a more reliable asset like Flaherty.

If Buehler proves to be out of Detroit’s price range this winter, Soroka and Heaney represent two opposite sides of the spectrum for free agent starters. Soroka, 27, turned in a dominant rookie season with the Braves back in 2019 en route to an All Star appearance, a second-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting and a sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young award. Since then, however, he’s struggled to stay on the field with just 46 innings of work combined between the 2020-23 seasons at the big league level. He was shipped from the Braves to the White Sox last winter and managed 79 2/3 innings of work last year while swinging between the rotation and bullpen.

His results were significantly better as a reliever in Chicago but that hasn’t stopped most interested teams from eyeing him as a rotation option this winter. If Soroka can build on the 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate he posted after being bumped from the White Sox rotation back in May, he would be a strong addition to a Tigers pitching staff that has plenty of depth options but little certainty behind Skubal and Reese Olson. Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda are among the hurlers who could be in the mix for starts with the club next year but none have staked a firm claim to a rotation spot, leaving plenty of opportunity for an unproven upside-arm like Soroka to break into the rotation.

Heaney, by contrast, is a fairly well-established veteran arm at this point. The 33-year-old has been a more or less league average starter for the majority of his career at this point, with a 4.45 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.28 FIP in 851 2/3 innings of work for the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers since the start of the 2018 season. While Heaney flashed some further upside in 2022 when he pitched to a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances (14 starts) for the Dodgers, his subsequent two years with Texas have seen him revert to his solid but unspectacular work as a back-end starter: 307 1/3 innings of work across 66 outings (59 starts) during which he posted a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.34 FIP. While Soroka would be a high-risk, high-reward addition for Detroit, signing Heaney would offer a more stable solution for the club’s rotation who could reliably lessen the workload expected from the club’s other rotation options.

While Stavenhagen only name-checked Buehler, Soroka, and Heaney as potential targets for the Tigers, there are plenty of other arms who could be had on short-term deals this winter. Plenty of fans and media members have speculated on the possibility that the club could look to reunite with either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in free agency this year. The two future Hall of Famers established themselves as among the game’s best pitchers in Detroit during the club’s last competitive window, and betting on one or the other to have something left in the tank in the twilight of their careers could be exactly the sort of short-term, high-upside gamble that Stavenhagen suggests president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are searching for. Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Gibson are among the other veteran starting pitching options expected to sign shorter-term deals this winter who could be plausible fits for the Tigers.

Young: Rangers Will Prioritize Pitching, Explore Reunions With Eovaldi, Heaney

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The Rangers went from the top of the MLB mountain to missing the playoffs in the span of one season, due in no small part to an offense that sputtered throughout the season. Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim were among the regulars who struggled at the plate, while Texas was plagued by injuries to Corey Seager, Josh Jung and Evan Carter, among others. As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News points out, the Rangers floundered against four-seam fastballs in particular.

Be that as it may, president of baseball operations Chris Young’s end-of-season press conference struck an optimistic tone regarding the in-house hitters the Rangers currently possess. “The biggest remedy, in my opinion, is improving the guys we currently have,” Young said (via Grant). The recently extended Rangers baseball ops leader called internal improvements to the lineup a “heavy priority” heading into next season.

With regard to outside additions, those will come more on the pitching side of the roster. MLB.com’s Kennedi Landri writes that Young specifically mentioned that he’d like to retain impending free agents Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Eovaldi triggered a $20MM player option this season when he reached a combined 300 innings between 2023-24, but he’s widely expected to decline that in favor of a return to the market (barring a hypothetical extension from his current club). Heaney exercised a player option following the 2023 season and returned to make 31 solid starts in this year’s rotation.

“As far as Evo and Andrew go, those are priorities for us,” said Young. “We love those guys. They helped us win a World Series. We would love to bring those guys back, and we’re going to explore every way we can to make that happen.”

Entering the 2025 season, Texas won’t be short on rotation options. Jacob deGrom should be the Opening Day starter now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, though counting on him for a full slate of 30-plus starts doesn’t feel realistic when he hasn’t reached that total since 2019. He’ll be joined by Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle (also in his first full season post-Tommy John) and some combination of Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. With deGrom and Mahle both facing workload concerns and the bulk of the team’s other options yet to pitch a full season in a big league rotation, it’s understandable that the Rangers feel it not just prudent but pivotal to fortify the starting staff.

Reunions with Eovaldi and/or Heaney won’t come cheaply, however. Eovaldi’s two-year, $34MM deal proved to be a bargain, even as incentives ballooned his guarantee to a total of $38.5MM over his two years. He signed that deal coming off an injury-shortened year with the Red Sox, who’d issued him a qualifying offer and thus tied him to draft pick compensation. Now healthy and unencumbered by the weight of a QO, he should be able to top that $34MM guarantee even though he’s two years older than during his last trip to the open market.

Heaney, similarly, was coming off a season of just 72 2/3 innings with the Dodgers. He hasn’t looked as dominant in Texas as he did during that abbreviated run with L.A., but he just gave the Rangers a combined 307 1/3 innings of 4.22 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 7.6%, respectively. He could find another two-year deal in the market, and it’s possible that would come with a larger guarantee than the $25MM term on his last pact.

The extent to which Texas will be able to spend in free agency is not yet clear. RosterResource pegs them with about $148MM worth of 2025 commitments, and that’s not including arbitration raises for Dunning, Heim, Sborz, Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras — a group that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a combined $25.5MM. Add in a slate of league-minimum players, and Texas is looking at around $185MM in total projected salary for next year’s 26-man roster. That’s $40MM shy of where they opened the 2024 season, so there’s clearly some room to spend, but that $40MM could dry up quickly if the Rangers are intent not only on adding at least one starter, but also on replacing effectively their entire late-inning relief corps.

To say Texas is likely to be active in the bullpen market would be putting things mildly. Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc and Jose Urena — their top four relievers by innings pitched — are all free agents. Deadline acquisition Andrew Chafin has a $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout) that is not a lock to be exercised. Robertson has a $7MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout) and will very likely decline his end of it. Yates, Robertson, Leclerc, Chafin and Josh Sborz — who missed most of the season due to shoulder problems — were the team’s go-to options in high-leverage spots.

Young didn’t comment on what level of increase will or won’t be possible. He plans to meet with majority owner Ray Davis in the near future to outline a spending plan. While Young avoided any firm declarations on payroll, he spoke about uncertainty regarding the team’s endeavors to create a proprietary regional sports network and pledged to build a “very good roster with whatever resources we have.”

On the surface, that’s a far cry from his Aug. 2021 comments wherein he pledged to be “very active” in free agency — and then followed through with blockbuster signings of Seager and Marcus Semien. More context on the Rangers’ potential spending figures to come to light as the onset of free agency draws nearer, but given the team’s current financial obligations and needs up and down the pitching staff, it’s hardly a shock that Young is prioritizing arms and hoping to see a talented core of hitters rebound at the plate next season.

Contract Notes: Kiner-Falefa, Heaney, Flexen

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The Pirates drew plenty of scrutiny for designating first baseman Rowdy Tellez for assignment when he was four plate appearances shy of reaching a $200K bonus in his contract, though management has publicly disputed that the bonus had anything to do with the decision. Another Pittsburgh veteran ultimately landed in a similar spot, but infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa tells Alex Stumpf of MLB.com that he declined an opportunity to enter the lineup and collect a $250K bonus. The infielder finished the season at 496 plate appearances, when his contract would’ve afforded him a $250K bonus for reaching 500 trips to the plate. Manager Derek Shelton initially omitted Kiner-Falefa from the Pirates’ Sunday lineup but, upon learning of the looming bonus, attempted to plug the infielder back into the lineup.

“I didn’t think it was fair to take a spot from [Liover Peguero], or one of the young guys, an opportunity to play at Yankee Stadium away from them,” says Kiner-Falefa, whom the Pirates acquired from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. “I got hurt this year. I missed a month. If that doesn’t happen, or if we’re actually in a real race, I crush those incentives by a long shot. So, at the end of the day, I feel like I didn’t deserve it from that aspect. It’s nothing the team did. They tried to make it right at the end. That meant a lot to me right there. I’m thankful to [Shelton] and the organization to give me that opportunity.”

A couple more interesting contract notes from the final weekend of the season…

  • Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney began his final start of the season Sunday at 156 innings, just four frames away from unlocking a $1.5MM bonus in his two-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that although he was hit hard through the first three innings of the game (seven runs allowed), Heaney was allowed to complete the fourth inning as a reward for the selflessness he’s shown in his two seasons with the club and for the value he’s provided as a teammate in the clubhouse. “[General manager Chris Young] said we are going to do the right things by people, by players and by fans,” Heaney tells Grant. “Chris and [manager] Bruce Bochy are baseball lifers and they understand what it means. I believed everything Chris told me when I signed here. It has been everything he presented and more.” The 33-year-old Heaney finished out the 2024 season with a 4.28 ERA in his 160 frames and logged an overall 4.22 ERA in 307 1/3 innings over his two years in Texas. He’s a free agent this winter.
  • Right-hander Chris Flexen has eaten innings at the back of the White Sox’ rotation amid the team’s historically feeble season, and the club made sure in his final start of the season that Flexen was able to reach the final incentive milestone in his one-year, $1.75MM contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale points out. Flexen’s deal called for $250K bonuses at each of 75, 100, 125 and 160 innings. The right-hander entered Sunday’s start with 153 2/3 innings under his belt. Flexen made the decision pretty easy for the Sox, as he tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Angels. Still, few would’ve questioned the decision to pull Flexen after six scoreless innings, 88 pitches and a 7-0 lead. But the Sox made sure to send Flexen back out for the seventh and only lifted him after he’d recorded that first out to get him to that 160-inning threshold. He finished out the season with a 4.95 ERA, leading the team in innings and ranking second to Garrett Crochet with 30 starts. Flexen will head back to free agency this winter.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Latest On Rangers’ Rotation, Trade Possibilities

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The Rangers have patched together their rotation for much of the season as they anticipate the returns of veterans Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer has already returned. Mahle is set to make his fifth minor league rehab start today and should make his Rangers debut before long. It’ll be a bit longer before deGrom makes it back, but he tossed a 40-pitch bullpen just yesterday, per Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. Left-hander Cody Bradford is on a minor league rehab assignment and expected to return soon, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that he’ll work out of the bullpen upon his return. Texas reinstated righty Dane Dunning from the injured list earlier today, too. He’s in the ’pen for now but could move back to a starting role depending on how the next week goes.

What once was a starting pitching hodgepodge looks increasingly enviable. If Mahle is cleared to return after today’s start, he’ll join Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Dunning as viable rotation options, with Bradford in the bullpen and deGrom looming on the horizon. That’s nine MLB-caliber starters, to say nothing of veteran starter Jose Ureña (who started six games but is in the bullpen presently).

With so many options suddenly at their fingertips, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Rangers trading from that stockpile of arms — even as they narrow the deficit in the postseason hunt. Texas has won four straight games. The Mariners have lost three straight. The Rangers now sit only three games back of the first-place Astros in the West and are just 5.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt. They’re not going to operate as a pure seller, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Lorenzen or perhaps even Gray could be moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Lorenzen, 32, signed with the Rangers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal in spring training. It was a bargain price for a veteran righty coming off a solid season, and he’s proven to be well worth the investment. He’s pitched 97 innings over the course of 17 starts and turned in a 3.53 ERA. Lorenzen’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both leave plenty to be desired and point to some likely ERA regression, but he’s been precisely the type of veteran rotation stabilizer the Rangers hoped to be acquiring when signing him.

As of deadline day, Lorenzen will have just $1.5MM of that base salary yet to be paid out. He’s already picked up $800K of innings-based incentives and will get another $200K when he reaches 100 innings, likely in his next start. Assuming that comes with the Rangers — he’s their probable starter Saturday — a new team would be on the hook for the remaining portion of his base and additional incentives he’d unlock by reaching 120 innings ($300K), 140 innings ($350K), 160 innings ($400K) and 180 innings ($450K). He’s on pace to barely reach that final milestone.

At most, a team adding Lorenzen would pay around $1.5MM in base salary and an additional $1.5MM worth of incentives. If Lorenzen is pitching well enough to reach that 180-inning mark, it’d be considered money well spent. If nothing else, a budget-conscious team looking to add a stable starter (e.g. Twins, Guardians) could view Lorenzen as an affordable option.

Gray would be a more surprising trade candidate. He’s in the third season of a four-year, $56MM contract that’s paying $13MM both this year and next. Thus far, he’s posted 94 innings of 3.73 ERA ball on the season. While Gray’s 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (aside from the shortened 2020 season), his 5.8% walk rate is a career-best mark. He’s still averaging 95 mph with his heater, while his opponents’ chase rate and swinging-strike rate are roughly in line with his 2022-23 marks.

Rosenthal also cites a pair of names the Rangers would prefer to hang onto even as they ponder trading from their rotation depth: Eovaldi and Heaney. The former is well on his way to vesting a $20MM player option for the 2025 season. That option would decrease his trade value — a new team would be stuck with the $20MM in the event of a major, post-trade injury. Beyond that, Eovaldi has been one of the team’s best arms this season, notching a 3.31 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 106 innings. He’d likely be ticketed for their playoff rotation, should they get there. And, even if they don’t, the Rangers might simply hope Eovaldi stays healthy and enjoys pitching in his home state enough that he’d pick up that player option for the 2025 season.

As for Heaney, he’s turned things around after a shaky first season in Texas. The veteran southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in exactly 100 innings. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so one would imagine he’s an on-paper trade candidate in this scenario where Texas deals from its excess. However, the Rangers don’t have an established left-hander in their bullpen. Brock Burke was excellent in 2022 but took a step back in ’23 and was optioned earlier this season after being shelled through 9 2/3 innings. Rookie Jacob Latz has a solid 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13.5% of his opponents. Bradford could possibly fill that role, but he’s yet to return from a stress reaction in his ribcage.

Heaney has experience pitching both as a starter and reliever, including during his time with Texas. He’s throwing well right now but would likely be pushed out of a theoretical postseason rotation. In that setting, he could slide into the bullpen and match up against tough lefties and/or provide multiple innings in long relief.

Andrew Heaney Exercises Player Option, Rangers Exercise Club Option On Jose Leclerc

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When the Rangers attempt to repeat their 2023 World Series championship next season, they’ll have two more familiar names on the roster. The club announced today that left-handed veteran Andrew Heaney exercised his $13MM player option for the 2024 campaign, while the club picked up a $6.25MM team option on the services of righty reliever Jose Leclerc for next season.

Heaney, 32, was regarded as a borderline candidate to opt out of his final year in Texas and return to the open market this offseason. MLBTR readers were polled on Heaney’s upcoming decision last month, with 62% of respondents suggesting that Heaney ought to exercise his player option for the 2024 campaign and return to the Rangers against 38% suggesting he return to the open market this offseason in search of a more lucrative deal.

It’s certainly an understandable decision. After signing in Texas on the heels of a strong albeit injury-shortened campaign with the Dodgers last year, Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023 but saw his results take a turn for the worse: while his 147 1/3 innings of work in 2023 more than doubled the 72 2/3 innings of work he posted in LA, his ERA ballooned from 3.10 last year up to 4.15 in 2023 while he struck out just 23.6% of batters faced after striking out a whopping 35.5% with the Dodgers. Given the downturn in results and his lengthy injury history, it was reasonable to wonder if Heaney would simply be better off hoping for a stronger platform season in 2024 rather than wading into a deep class of free agent starting options.

With Heaney locked in as a member of the Rangers pitching staff for 2024, it leaves Texas with a quality, mid-rotation veteran option available to them as a potential Opening Day rotation option next season. With Jordan Montgomery and Martin Perez both heading to the open market and ace righty Jacob deGrom rehabbing Tommy John surgery to open next year, Heaney’s return could theoretically round out a Rangers starting five that already contained Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning. With that being said, both Heaney and Dunning have seen plenty of time in relief roles in the past, leaving the door open for potential additions to the club’s starting group if they look to re-sign Montgomery or add another front-end starter to pair with Scherzer and Eovaldi atop the club’s rotation.

As for Leclerc, the Rangers’ decision to retain the 29-year-old righty is hardly a surprising one. After struggling in 2019 and missing time in 2020 and 2021 due to a shoulder strain and Tommy John surgery, Leclerc has been nothing short of excellent for the Rangers the past two seasons, with a 2.75 ERA (155 ERA+) and 3.67 FIP in 104 2/3 innings of work the past two seasons. 2023 in particular was a strong season for the righty, as he posted a 2.68 ERA and 3.62 FIP while striking out 28.8% of batters faced. Given those numbers, retaining Leclerc to help anchor the club’s bullpen next season was something of a no-brainer, particularly given the club option Texas holds for his services in 2025.

The bullpen figures to be a major area of focus for the Rangers this offseason. The club’s 4.77 ERA out of the bullpen in 2023 was the seventh-worst figure among all big league clubs, and the Rangers stand to lose flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman and veteran set-up options Will Smith and Chris Stratton to the open market this offseason. While the club has some interesting young arms like left-handers Brock Burke and Cody Bradford who could be relied on to help cover innings, the club will need to restock its relief corps with late-inning options who can surround Leclerc. Of course, a hypothetical addition to the starting rotation could help improve the club’s bullpen as well by kicking either Heaney or Dunning into a multi-inning relief role.

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