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Tigers Seeking Starting Pitching, Have “Some Interest” In Flaherty Reunion

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As the Tigers look to build on the scorching finish to the season that delivered them a trip to the ALDS in 2024, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reported yesterday that the club is expected to target “at least” one starting pitcher this winter. With that being said, Stavenhagen cautions that the club is hoping to stick with short-term additions who can be had on one- or two-year contracts. Stavenhagen also suggests that the club could be hesitant to land a pitcher who received a Qualifying Offer this winter due to the associated loss of draft capital.

That doesn’t mean the club is completely unwilling to explore higher-tier options, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported this afternoon that the club has at least “some interest” in a reunion with right-hander Jack Flaherty. The early movement on the free agent market has generally been focused on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation, ranging from lefty Blake Snell’s massive five-year deal with the Dodgers to smaller moves like the Angels’ signing of right-hander Kyle Hendricks on a one-year pact. Flaherty, who signed with the Tigers last winter and had a resurgent half-season with Detroit before being traded to L.A. over the summer, is the best pitcher remaining on the market who is unattached to draft pick compensation.

While pairing Flaherty with ace lefty Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation is surely a tantalizing idea to fans and would help fortify the Tigers after their surprise return to contention this fall, it’s also possible that they’ll simply look to sign “the next” Flaherty instead of pursuing a reunion; while Rosenthal suggests Flaherty figures to land a deal in the four-to-six year range, Stavenhagen notes that the club hopes to find a “high-upside” pitcher on the market who they believe they can help maximize as they did with Flaherty this past year rather than pay a premium for more established talent. Right-handers Walker Buehler and Michael Soroka as well as southpaw Andrew Heaney could be among the pitchers of that sort on Detroit’s radar this winter.

Stavenhagen goes as far as to note that Buehler could be the club’s “white whale” this winter, but adds that there’s questions about whether or not he’ll need to accept the sort of short-term deal the Tigers are looking to make this winter. That’s a valid concern, as Buehler has received plenty of interest from all corners of the league with the A’s, Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Mets among the teams with reported interest in the righty’s services. MLBTR ranked Buehler 37th on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month while predicting a one-year, $15MM pact for the righty. That’s surely a price tag the Tigers would be eager to have him at, but given the widespread interest he’s drawn to this point and the hot market for starting pitching that has seen multiple players exceed expectations it wouldn’t be a shock to see Buehler land a multi-year deal even after posting a subpar 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts for the Dodgers this year. If Buehler’s market does end up running that hot, it could be hard to justify targeting him rather than spending a bit more to secure a more reliable asset like Flaherty.

If Buehler proves to be out of Detroit’s price range this winter, Soroka and Heaney represent two opposite sides of the spectrum for free agent starters. Soroka, 27, turned in a dominant rookie season with the Braves back in 2019 en route to an All Star appearance, a second-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting and a sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young award. Since then, however, he’s struggled to stay on the field with just 46 innings of work combined between the 2020-23 seasons at the big league level. He was shipped from the Braves to the White Sox last winter and managed 79 2/3 innings of work last year while swinging between the rotation and bullpen.

His results were significantly better as a reliever in Chicago but that hasn’t stopped most interested teams from eyeing him as a rotation option this winter. If Soroka can build on the 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate he posted after being bumped from the White Sox rotation back in May, he would be a strong addition to a Tigers pitching staff that has plenty of depth options but little certainty behind Skubal and Reese Olson. Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda are among the hurlers who could be in the mix for starts with the club next year but none have staked a firm claim to a rotation spot, leaving plenty of opportunity for an unproven upside-arm like Soroka to break into the rotation.

Heaney, by contrast, is a fairly well-established veteran arm at this point. The 33-year-old has been a more or less league average starter for the majority of his career at this point, with a 4.45 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.28 FIP in 851 2/3 innings of work for the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers since the start of the 2018 season. While Heaney flashed some further upside in 2022 when he pitched to a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances (14 starts) for the Dodgers, his subsequent two years with Texas have seen him revert to his solid but unspectacular work as a back-end starter: 307 1/3 innings of work across 66 outings (59 starts) during which he posted a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.34 FIP. While Soroka would be a high-risk, high-reward addition for Detroit, signing Heaney would offer a more stable solution for the club’s rotation who could reliably lessen the workload expected from the club’s other rotation options.

While Stavenhagen only name-checked Buehler, Soroka, and Heaney as potential targets for the Tigers, there are plenty of other arms who could be had on short-term deals this winter. Plenty of fans and media members have speculated on the possibility that the club could look to reunite with either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in free agency this year. The two future Hall of Famers established themselves as among the game’s best pitchers in Detroit during the club’s last competitive window, and betting on one or the other to have something left in the tank in the twilight of their careers could be exactly the sort of short-term, high-upside gamble that Stavenhagen suggests president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are searching for. Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Gibson are among the other veteran starting pitching options expected to sign shorter-term deals this winter who could be plausible fits for the Tigers.

Young: Rangers Will Prioritize Pitching, Explore Reunions With Eovaldi, Heaney

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The Rangers went from the top of the MLB mountain to missing the playoffs in the span of one season, due in no small part to an offense that sputtered throughout the season. Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim were among the regulars who struggled at the plate, while Texas was plagued by injuries to Corey Seager, Josh Jung and Evan Carter, among others. As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News points out, the Rangers floundered against four-seam fastballs in particular.

Be that as it may, president of baseball operations Chris Young’s end-of-season press conference struck an optimistic tone regarding the in-house hitters the Rangers currently possess. “The biggest remedy, in my opinion, is improving the guys we currently have,” Young said (via Grant). The recently extended Rangers baseball ops leader called internal improvements to the lineup a “heavy priority” heading into next season.

With regard to outside additions, those will come more on the pitching side of the roster. MLB.com’s Kennedi Landri writes that Young specifically mentioned that he’d like to retain impending free agents Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Eovaldi triggered a $20MM player option this season when he reached a combined 300 innings between 2023-24, but he’s widely expected to decline that in favor of a return to the market (barring a hypothetical extension from his current club). Heaney exercised a player option following the 2023 season and returned to make 31 solid starts in this year’s rotation.

“As far as Evo and Andrew go, those are priorities for us,” said Young. “We love those guys. They helped us win a World Series. We would love to bring those guys back, and we’re going to explore every way we can to make that happen.”

Entering the 2025 season, Texas won’t be short on rotation options. Jacob deGrom should be the Opening Day starter now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, though counting on him for a full slate of 30-plus starts doesn’t feel realistic when he hasn’t reached that total since 2019. He’ll be joined by Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle (also in his first full season post-Tommy John) and some combination of Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. With deGrom and Mahle both facing workload concerns and the bulk of the team’s other options yet to pitch a full season in a big league rotation, it’s understandable that the Rangers feel it not just prudent but pivotal to fortify the starting staff.

Reunions with Eovaldi and/or Heaney won’t come cheaply, however. Eovaldi’s two-year, $34MM deal proved to be a bargain, even as incentives ballooned his guarantee to a total of $38.5MM over his two years. He signed that deal coming off an injury-shortened year with the Red Sox, who’d issued him a qualifying offer and thus tied him to draft pick compensation. Now healthy and unencumbered by the weight of a QO, he should be able to top that $34MM guarantee even though he’s two years older than during his last trip to the open market.

Heaney, similarly, was coming off a season of just 72 2/3 innings with the Dodgers. He hasn’t looked as dominant in Texas as he did during that abbreviated run with L.A., but he just gave the Rangers a combined 307 1/3 innings of 4.22 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 7.6%, respectively. He could find another two-year deal in the market, and it’s possible that would come with a larger guarantee than the $25MM term on his last pact.

The extent to which Texas will be able to spend in free agency is not yet clear. RosterResource pegs them with about $148MM worth of 2025 commitments, and that’s not including arbitration raises for Dunning, Heim, Sborz, Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras — a group that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a combined $25.5MM. Add in a slate of league-minimum players, and Texas is looking at around $185MM in total projected salary for next year’s 26-man roster. That’s $40MM shy of where they opened the 2024 season, so there’s clearly some room to spend, but that $40MM could dry up quickly if the Rangers are intent not only on adding at least one starter, but also on replacing effectively their entire late-inning relief corps.

To say Texas is likely to be active in the bullpen market would be putting things mildly. Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc and Jose Urena — their top four relievers by innings pitched — are all free agents. Deadline acquisition Andrew Chafin has a $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout) that is not a lock to be exercised. Robertson has a $7MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout) and will very likely decline his end of it. Yates, Robertson, Leclerc, Chafin and Josh Sborz — who missed most of the season due to shoulder problems — were the team’s go-to options in high-leverage spots.

Young didn’t comment on what level of increase will or won’t be possible. He plans to meet with majority owner Ray Davis in the near future to outline a spending plan. While Young avoided any firm declarations on payroll, he spoke about uncertainty regarding the team’s endeavors to create a proprietary regional sports network and pledged to build a “very good roster with whatever resources we have.”

On the surface, that’s a far cry from his Aug. 2021 comments wherein he pledged to be “very active” in free agency — and then followed through with blockbuster signings of Seager and Marcus Semien. More context on the Rangers’ potential spending figures to come to light as the onset of free agency draws nearer, but given the team’s current financial obligations and needs up and down the pitching staff, it’s hardly a shock that Young is prioritizing arms and hoping to see a talented core of hitters rebound at the plate next season.

Contract Notes: Kiner-Falefa, Heaney, Flexen

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The Pirates drew plenty of scrutiny for designating first baseman Rowdy Tellez for assignment when he was four plate appearances shy of reaching a $200K bonus in his contract, though management has publicly disputed that the bonus had anything to do with the decision. Another Pittsburgh veteran ultimately landed in a similar spot, but infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa tells Alex Stumpf of MLB.com that he declined an opportunity to enter the lineup and collect a $250K bonus. The infielder finished the season at 496 plate appearances, when his contract would’ve afforded him a $250K bonus for reaching 500 trips to the plate. Manager Derek Shelton initially omitted Kiner-Falefa from the Pirates’ Sunday lineup but, upon learning of the looming bonus, attempted to plug the infielder back into the lineup.

“I didn’t think it was fair to take a spot from [Liover Peguero], or one of the young guys, an opportunity to play at Yankee Stadium away from them,” says Kiner-Falefa, whom the Pirates acquired from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. “I got hurt this year. I missed a month. If that doesn’t happen, or if we’re actually in a real race, I crush those incentives by a long shot. So, at the end of the day, I feel like I didn’t deserve it from that aspect. It’s nothing the team did. They tried to make it right at the end. That meant a lot to me right there. I’m thankful to [Shelton] and the organization to give me that opportunity.”

A couple more interesting contract notes from the final weekend of the season…

  • Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney began his final start of the season Sunday at 156 innings, just four frames away from unlocking a $1.5MM bonus in his two-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that although he was hit hard through the first three innings of the game (seven runs allowed), Heaney was allowed to complete the fourth inning as a reward for the selflessness he’s shown in his two seasons with the club and for the value he’s provided as a teammate in the clubhouse. “[General manager Chris Young] said we are going to do the right things by people, by players and by fans,” Heaney tells Grant. “Chris and [manager] Bruce Bochy are baseball lifers and they understand what it means. I believed everything Chris told me when I signed here. It has been everything he presented and more.” The 33-year-old Heaney finished out the 2024 season with a 4.28 ERA in his 160 frames and logged an overall 4.22 ERA in 307 1/3 innings over his two years in Texas. He’s a free agent this winter.
  • Right-hander Chris Flexen has eaten innings at the back of the White Sox’ rotation amid the team’s historically feeble season, and the club made sure in his final start of the season that Flexen was able to reach the final incentive milestone in his one-year, $1.75MM contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale points out. Flexen’s deal called for $250K bonuses at each of 75, 100, 125 and 160 innings. The right-hander entered Sunday’s start with 153 2/3 innings under his belt. Flexen made the decision pretty easy for the Sox, as he tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Angels. Still, few would’ve questioned the decision to pull Flexen after six scoreless innings, 88 pitches and a 7-0 lead. But the Sox made sure to send Flexen back out for the seventh and only lifted him after he’d recorded that first out to get him to that 160-inning threshold. He finished out the season with a 4.95 ERA, leading the team in innings and ranking second to Garrett Crochet with 30 starts. Flexen will head back to free agency this winter.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Latest On Rangers’ Rotation, Trade Possibilities

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The Rangers have patched together their rotation for much of the season as they anticipate the returns of veterans Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer has already returned. Mahle is set to make his fifth minor league rehab start today and should make his Rangers debut before long. It’ll be a bit longer before deGrom makes it back, but he tossed a 40-pitch bullpen just yesterday, per Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. Left-hander Cody Bradford is on a minor league rehab assignment and expected to return soon, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that he’ll work out of the bullpen upon his return. Texas reinstated righty Dane Dunning from the injured list earlier today, too. He’s in the ’pen for now but could move back to a starting role depending on how the next week goes.

What once was a starting pitching hodgepodge looks increasingly enviable. If Mahle is cleared to return after today’s start, he’ll join Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Dunning as viable rotation options, with Bradford in the bullpen and deGrom looming on the horizon. That’s nine MLB-caliber starters, to say nothing of veteran starter Jose Ureña (who started six games but is in the bullpen presently).

With so many options suddenly at their fingertips, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Rangers trading from that stockpile of arms — even as they narrow the deficit in the postseason hunt. Texas has won four straight games. The Mariners have lost three straight. The Rangers now sit only three games back of the first-place Astros in the West and are just 5.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt. They’re not going to operate as a pure seller, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Lorenzen or perhaps even Gray could be moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Lorenzen, 32, signed with the Rangers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal in spring training. It was a bargain price for a veteran righty coming off a solid season, and he’s proven to be well worth the investment. He’s pitched 97 innings over the course of 17 starts and turned in a 3.53 ERA. Lorenzen’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both leave plenty to be desired and point to some likely ERA regression, but he’s been precisely the type of veteran rotation stabilizer the Rangers hoped to be acquiring when signing him.

As of deadline day, Lorenzen will have just $1.5MM of that base salary yet to be paid out. He’s already picked up $800K of innings-based incentives and will get another $200K when he reaches 100 innings, likely in his next start. Assuming that comes with the Rangers — he’s their probable starter Saturday — a new team would be on the hook for the remaining portion of his base and additional incentives he’d unlock by reaching 120 innings ($300K), 140 innings ($350K), 160 innings ($400K) and 180 innings ($450K). He’s on pace to barely reach that final milestone.

At most, a team adding Lorenzen would pay around $1.5MM in base salary and an additional $1.5MM worth of incentives. If Lorenzen is pitching well enough to reach that 180-inning mark, it’d be considered money well spent. If nothing else, a budget-conscious team looking to add a stable starter (e.g. Twins, Guardians) could view Lorenzen as an affordable option.

Gray would be a more surprising trade candidate. He’s in the third season of a four-year, $56MM contract that’s paying $13MM both this year and next. Thus far, he’s posted 94 innings of 3.73 ERA ball on the season. While Gray’s 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (aside from the shortened 2020 season), his 5.8% walk rate is a career-best mark. He’s still averaging 95 mph with his heater, while his opponents’ chase rate and swinging-strike rate are roughly in line with his 2022-23 marks.

Rosenthal also cites a pair of names the Rangers would prefer to hang onto even as they ponder trading from their rotation depth: Eovaldi and Heaney. The former is well on his way to vesting a $20MM player option for the 2025 season. That option would decrease his trade value — a new team would be stuck with the $20MM in the event of a major, post-trade injury. Beyond that, Eovaldi has been one of the team’s best arms this season, notching a 3.31 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 106 innings. He’d likely be ticketed for their playoff rotation, should they get there. And, even if they don’t, the Rangers might simply hope Eovaldi stays healthy and enjoys pitching in his home state enough that he’d pick up that player option for the 2025 season.

As for Heaney, he’s turned things around after a shaky first season in Texas. The veteran southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in exactly 100 innings. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so one would imagine he’s an on-paper trade candidate in this scenario where Texas deals from its excess. However, the Rangers don’t have an established left-hander in their bullpen. Brock Burke was excellent in 2022 but took a step back in ’23 and was optioned earlier this season after being shelled through 9 2/3 innings. Rookie Jacob Latz has a solid 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13.5% of his opponents. Bradford could possibly fill that role, but he’s yet to return from a stress reaction in his ribcage.

Heaney has experience pitching both as a starter and reliever, including during his time with Texas. He’s throwing well right now but would likely be pushed out of a theoretical postseason rotation. In that setting, he could slide into the bullpen and match up against tough lefties and/or provide multiple innings in long relief.

Andrew Heaney Exercises Player Option, Rangers Exercise Club Option On Jose Leclerc

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When the Rangers attempt to repeat their 2023 World Series championship next season, they’ll have two more familiar names on the roster. The club announced today that left-handed veteran Andrew Heaney exercised his $13MM player option for the 2024 campaign, while the club picked up a $6.25MM team option on the services of righty reliever Jose Leclerc for next season.

Heaney, 32, was regarded as a borderline candidate to opt out of his final year in Texas and return to the open market this offseason. MLBTR readers were polled on Heaney’s upcoming decision last month, with 62% of respondents suggesting that Heaney ought to exercise his player option for the 2024 campaign and return to the Rangers against 38% suggesting he return to the open market this offseason in search of a more lucrative deal.

It’s certainly an understandable decision. After signing in Texas on the heels of a strong albeit injury-shortened campaign with the Dodgers last year, Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023 but saw his results take a turn for the worse: while his 147 1/3 innings of work in 2023 more than doubled the 72 2/3 innings of work he posted in LA, his ERA ballooned from 3.10 last year up to 4.15 in 2023 while he struck out just 23.6% of batters faced after striking out a whopping 35.5% with the Dodgers. Given the downturn in results and his lengthy injury history, it was reasonable to wonder if Heaney would simply be better off hoping for a stronger platform season in 2024 rather than wading into a deep class of free agent starting options.

With Heaney locked in as a member of the Rangers pitching staff for 2024, it leaves Texas with a quality, mid-rotation veteran option available to them as a potential Opening Day rotation option next season. With Jordan Montgomery and Martin Perez both heading to the open market and ace righty Jacob deGrom rehabbing Tommy John surgery to open next year, Heaney’s return could theoretically round out a Rangers starting five that already contained Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning. With that being said, both Heaney and Dunning have seen plenty of time in relief roles in the past, leaving the door open for potential additions to the club’s starting group if they look to re-sign Montgomery or add another front-end starter to pair with Scherzer and Eovaldi atop the club’s rotation.

As for Leclerc, the Rangers’ decision to retain the 29-year-old righty is hardly a surprising one. After struggling in 2019 and missing time in 2020 and 2021 due to a shoulder strain and Tommy John surgery, Leclerc has been nothing short of excellent for the Rangers the past two seasons, with a 2.75 ERA (155 ERA+) and 3.67 FIP in 104 2/3 innings of work the past two seasons. 2023 in particular was a strong season for the righty, as he posted a 2.68 ERA and 3.62 FIP while striking out 28.8% of batters faced. Given those numbers, retaining Leclerc to help anchor the club’s bullpen next season was something of a no-brainer, particularly given the club option Texas holds for his services in 2025.

The bullpen figures to be a major area of focus for the Rangers this offseason. The club’s 4.77 ERA out of the bullpen in 2023 was the seventh-worst figure among all big league clubs, and the Rangers stand to lose flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman and veteran set-up options Will Smith and Chris Stratton to the open market this offseason. While the club has some interesting young arms like left-handers Brock Burke and Cody Bradford who could be relied on to help cover innings, the club will need to restock its relief corps with late-inning options who can surround Leclerc. Of course, a hypothetical addition to the starting rotation could help improve the club’s bullpen as well by kicking either Heaney or Dunning into a multi-inning relief role.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Heaney, Twins

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The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey provided an update on a handful of Red Sox prospects today, headlined by top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer. A consensus top-15 prospect in the sport headed into the 2023 campaign, Mayer hit well enough in 35 games with Boston’s High-A affiliate last season to earn a promotion to Double-A, though his move to the upper levels of the minors was met with difficulties. Over 190 trips to the plate at the level, Mayer slashed just .189/.254/.355 with a 25.8% strikeout rate before ultimately seeing his 2023 campaign come to an end due to a nagging shoulder injury at the beginning of August.

Mayer has been been doing rehab work since the season ended, per McCaffrey, and is expected to have a normal offseason this winter. It’s surely a significant relief for the Red Sox, as Mayer could be on the radar to reach the majors sometime next year given the club’s lack of certainty in the middle infield. Boston figures to use Trevor Story as their everyday shortstop next year, though he slashed just .203/.250/.316 in 43 games this year after returning from surgery midseason. Alongside Story, the club sports a handful of options including Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela as potential contributors up the middle.

Also discussed in McCaffrey’s piece is right-hander Noah Song, who was returned to the Red Sox by the Phillies back in August after the Phillies selected Song in the Rule 5 draft last offseason. While McCaffrey notes that the club may decide to protect Song from the Rule 5 draft this year to avoid a similar situation, she suggests it’s also possible that Song’s inability to stick on the roster in Philadelphia in 2023 could leave him unlikely to do so in 2024, even if selected for a second time. As a member of the naval reserves, Song has certain obligations to the US military that have impacted his ability to play baseball professionally in the past. That being said, McCaffrey relays that Red Sox director of player development Brian Abraham believes Song’s military duties can be fulfilled during the offseason, allowing him to have a normal 2024 campaign.

More from the American League…

  • Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney discussed his decision to sign in Texas last winter recently with Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. Heaney acknowledged that he discussed potential deals with several teams, including the Red Sox, adding that he spoke with the team remotely and met with a member of the club’s medical staff during negotiations last offseason. Ultimately, Heaney notes that his decision to sign in Texas was influenced by the Oklahoma City native wanting to play for his hometown team. Heaney can opt out of the final year and $13MM on his deal with the Rangers this offseason. If he decides to do so on the heels of a season where he posted a 4.15 ERA in 147 1/3 innings of work it’s at least possible that the Red Sox, who figure to lose lefty James Paxton and righty Corey Kluber to free agency later this month, could be a suitor for his services once again.
  • Long-time Twins TV broadcaster Dick Bremer is stepping away from the booth after 40 years as the club’s play-by-play announcer, per an announcement by the club yesterday. Bremer, 67, will remain as a member of the Twins organization as a special assistant to the front office. Per the club’s press release, the Twins are currently “assessing potential broadcast options as well as a talent lineup for 2024 and beyond” with announcements expected later this offseason. Minnesota, of course, is among the teams impacted by Diamond Sports Group filing for bankruptcy back in March. The split with Diamond has left the club’s broadcast situation up in the air headed into the 2024 campaign.

MLBTR Poll: Andrew Heaney’s Opt-Out

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The 2022-23 offseason saw several mid-tier free agents sign similar two-year contracts, each of which featured an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. Josh Bell and Michael Conforto’s deals with the Guardians and Giants are two examples on the position player side of things, but the majority of these deals were offered to starting pitchers, such as Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling in San Francisco. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Seth Lugo also signed similar deals with the Cubs and Padres, respectively, that allowed them to return to the open market this offseason if they so chose.

Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.

Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.

That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.

Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.

Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.

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Rangers Likely To Put Martin Perez Back In Rotation

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The Rangers moved a then-struggling Martin Perez from the rotation to the bullpen in early August, but the left-hander has righted the ship and pitched well enough of late that they’ll likely plug him back into the starting staff for the final stretch of the season. “I think that’s fair to say,” manager Bruce Bochy replied when asked by Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today if Perez had pitched his way back into a rotation role.

The decision to move Perez into a relief role was sensible at the time. The veteran southpaw made 20 starts for Texas earlier this year but had limped to a 4.98 ERA in 108 1/3 innings in that role — a far cry from 2022’s stellar 2.89 ERA in 32 starts (196 1/3 innings). The bullpen move has helped Perez get back on track; in 13 relief appearances, he’s logged 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a 19-to-6 K/BB ratio and an enormous 65.9% ground-ball rate. That includes a particularly strong stretch over his past nine appearances, where he’s allowed just two runs in 15 2/3 innings while sporting a 15-to-3 K/BB mark.

Right-hander Jon Gray lasted just 2 1/3 innings yesterday before giving way to Perez, who came on to toss 4 2/3 innings of scoreless relief and earn his tenth win of the season in the process. Perez tossed 64 pitches, allowed three hits and a walk, and punched out five batters in that nearly spotless performance. It was a much-needed respite for a Rangers bullpen that had been tasked with covering 23 innings in the team’s past six games.

Southpaw Jordan Montgomery is locked in as the Rangers’ top starter now that Max Scherzer’s regular season is likely over due to a strained teres major. Nathan Eovaldi is still building back up from a lengthy IL stint due to a forearm strain. He pitched five innings in his most recent outing — his longest since originally hitting the IL back in July. Dane Dunning and Gray have also been making regular starts, although Gray has hit a wall of late, yielding 13 runs in 13 2/3 frames over his past four starts combined. Rookie left-hander Cody Bradford made a start earlier this week — his seventh of the year but his first since late July — and was tagged for six runs in three innings.

Texas also has veteran starter Andrew Heaney as an option to start down the stretch, but there’s financial motivation for them to keep him in the bullpen role to which he was recently shifted. The second season of Heaney’s two-year, $25MM contract is a player option valued at $13MM, but that would jump to a $20MM value if he pitches 150 innings in 2023. He’s currently at 138 1/3 innings on the year, and keeping him in a relief role will likely keep that player option at the lower of those two values.

Perez’s return to the rotation will come at a pivotal time in the game’s most tightly contested division. The Rangers and Mariners are tied with identical 84-68 records, both sitting just a half game behind the division-leading Astros. Beyond that, Texas and Seattle play seven of their final ten games this season against one another, making every start of critical importance. If Perez indeed makes another start or two and helps push the Rangers into the postseason, he’d be an option to take the ball in a playoff start as well.

A strong finish to the year in a return to a starting role would also bode well for Perez this offseason, when he’ll once again be a free agent. His work out of the ’pen has improved his season line to a 4.49 in 136 1/3 innings. This season’s 15% strikeout rate is down considerably from last year’s 20.6% mark, and it’s a similar story with his ground-ball rate (51.4% in 2022; 45.6% in 2023). That said, if Perez can close out the year on a high note and perhaps show well in the postseason, he’ll have a decent case as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater who should command interest from clubs in need of innings.

Rangers Move Martín Pérez To Bullpen

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The Rangers brought in some new additions to their rotation at the deadline, acquiring both Max Scherzer from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. One of them will replace Nathan Eovaldi, who recently landed on the injured list. Another opening will be created by veteran Martín Pérez getting bumped to the bullpen, reports Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News. “It doesn’t mean that’s where he’s going to stay,” manager Bruce Bochy said of the move for Pérez. “But for this time around, that’s the plan.”

Pérez, 32, has a long track of being a serviceable major league pitcher. By the end of the 2021 season, he had tossed 1102 2/3 innings, allowing 4.71 earned runs per nine innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 8.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball were both solid enough to allow him to be of use.

For 2022, he signed a one-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers and went on to have a career year. He made 32 starts and posted a 2.89 ERA over 196 1/3 innings, getting his strikeout rate up to a career high of 20.6% while still limiting walks and grounders. That earned him a well-deserved raise, as the Rangers issued him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he accepted.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that late-career breakout. His strikeout bump has vanished, as his 14.4% rate this year is low even by his standards. The walk rate is still solid at 8.6% but he’s only getting grounders at a 41% clip, a huge drop from last year’s 51.4% rate. His ERA on the year is 4.98, with only five qualified pitchers worse than him in that department this year. It’s also been trending in a bad direction, as he had a 2.41 ERA at the end of April but a 6.15 mark since the start of May.

With those results, it’s not shocking that he’s been nudged out of the starting mix. This is a road he has travelled down before, as the Red Sox bumped him to the bullpen in 2021, though he was able to get back on track with the aforementioned breakout in 2022. Perhaps he will do so again at some point but the Texas rotation will now seem to consist of Scherzer, Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning.

Dunning started the year in the bullpen but jumped into the rotation when Jacob deGrom landed on the injured list, later to require Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts since the start of May, Dunning has a 3.43 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate in that time isn’t especially impressive but he’s higher than Pérez in that department while also walking just 6.7% of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.9% clip.

It seems those strong results will allow him to keep his starting gig, at least for the time being. As Bochy mentioned, the club could mix things up again in the months to come, though the group could get a bit more crowded. Bochy expects the club to have Eovaldi back after a minimum IL stint, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which will make it harder both for Pérez to get back in the mix and for Dunning to keep his spot. Perhaps Eovaldi’s return would see Dunning hold his spot and Heaney get bumped to the bullpen since the latter has a lackluster 4.36 ERA on the season. But he has been trending better of late, with a 2.95 mark in his last four outings.

Of course, the final few months could also see some plot twists that change all of this, best laid plans and whatnot. The AL West is shaping up to be a fascinating race to watch in the final months, as the Rangers made their aforementioned rotation additions while the Astros got Justin Verlander and the Angels nabbed Lucas Giolito. The Rangers will undoubtedly be making whatever moves they feel give them the best shot at success in the weeks to come, with the large salary of Pérez not enough to keep him from the bullpen. He’ll return to the open market this winter while Dunning will qualify for arbitration for the first time.

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