Andrew Heaney

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

By Steve Adams | April 19, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15 ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Rangers Sign Andrew Heaney To Two-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 9, 2022 at 5:45pm CDT

Dec. 9: The Rangers have officially announced the signing. Levi Weaver of The Athletic provides some specifics on the contract. Heaney will make $12MM plus incentives in 2023 followed by $13MM plus incentives in 2024. If he opts out after the first year, he’ll collect a $500K payout.

Dec. 6, 7:42pm: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Heaney will earn $12.5MM in guaranteed money in 2023, with the ability to earn up to $5MM more in performance bonuses.

4:40pm: The Rangers have an agreement with free agent pitcher Andrew Heaney, pending a physical. It will be a two-year, $25MM deal with incentives that could take it up to $37MM. Heaney will be able to opt out of the deal after the first season. Heaney is represented by Icon Sports Management.

Heaney, 32 in June, has long been an enticing hurler due to his incredible ability to rack up strikeouts. Since the start of the 2016 season, his 27.2% strikeout rate is well above average and ranks 21st among all pitchers in the majors in that stretch, minimum 500 innings pitched.

However, despite banking all those Ks, there have also been concerns around Heaney. One is his tendency to get tattooed by the long ball too often. For his career, 16.1% of his fly balls have left the yard, which is certainly on the high side. League wide averages fluctuate in this department as the ball seems to be changing from year to year, but the average in 2022 was 11.4%. Even in the “juiced ball” season of 2019, the rate only got as high as 15.3%, still below Heaney’s career rate. Those home runs are a big reason why he has a career ERA of 4.56 despite all those punchouts. Another knock on Heaney is health, as he’s only once reached 130 innings in a single season. That’s been due to a number of factors, including Tommy John surgery in 2016 and various bouts of elbow inflammation since then.

For 2022, Heaney seemed to take a step forward performance wise, but without completely eliminating those concerning tendencies. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $8.5MM deal and then changed his pitch repertoire. His curveball and sinker were eliminated in favor of a new slider to pair with his four-seamer and the occasional changeup. The results were excellent as Heaney struck out an incredible 35.5% of batters faced, well beyond his own track record and second to only Spencer Strider among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched on the year.

However, injuries were once again a problem, with Heaney making multiple trips to the IL due to shoulder issues throughout the year. In the end, he made 14 starts and two relief appearances, getting to 72 2/3 innings pitched for the whole season, with three more added in the playoffs. The long ball was still present as well, as he allowed 14 homers in that sample, leading to a HR/FB rate of 17.9%. Despite the massive strikeout rate, those home runs bumped his ERA up to 3.10.

Even with those concerns, MLBTR predicted that Heaney would get enough interest to land a three-year, $42MM deal, or $14MM per season. It’s possible that Heaney got a wide variety of creative contracts to address his high upside potential but also the big question marks. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that Heaney had nine different offers before agreeing to this Rangers deal, and recent reporting indicated he had three-year offers and was trying to get a fourth. The exact details of those other offers aren’t known, but Heaney has taken a deal with a solid $25MM guarantee, $12.5MM per year, but the possibility to earn much more.

For one thing, the opt-out after 2023 will give him the chance to return to the open market a year from now. If Heaney finally stays healthy and produces the elite results he’s clearly capable of, he could opt out and land himself a much larger contract at that point. There’s also the incentives in the deal, with the specifics not yet known, but that’s another avenue for Heaney to end up doing quite well for himself on the deal.

For the Rangers, this is the latest in a series of moves that has completely remade their rotation. Just about a month ago, their on-paper starting group consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch question marks. Since then, they’ve re-signed Martín Pérez, acquired Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta, signed arguably the best pitcher on the planet in Jacob deGrom and have now added Heaney into the mix. In a way, the Heaney deal is an echo of the deGrom deal, as both pitchers have excellent stuff when healthy but have injury concerns. deGrom is in another league compared to Heaney, but they are similar high-risk upside plays for the Rangers.

The collective moves also are something of a mirror to what the club did a year ago. Tired of rebuilding and looking for a return to contention, the Rangers spent aggressively to land two of the top middle infielders in available in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Those two players didn’t immediately turn around the fortunes of the franchise, as the Rangers went 68-94 in 2022. That was largely due to a poor rotation that, as mentioned, they have completely remade in the past month. The club’s starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA that was 25th among the 30 teams in baseball. But with deGrom, Heaney and Odorizzi in the fold, their odds of moving up the list in that category are quite strong.

Financially, this deal pushes the club’s payroll up to $182MM and their competitive balance tax figure up to $204MM, per Roster Resource. The club seems poised to blow well past their previous spending levels, as their highest Opening Day payroll in the past was $165MM back in 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s unclear how much more spending the club plans to do, but they still have almost $30MM of wiggle room before reaching the $233MM luxury tax threshold for 2023.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported the sides were nearing a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that an agreement was in place, pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the two-year structure with an opt-out. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first had the $25MM guarantee plus incentives. Alden González of ESPN first added the $37MM post-incentives figure.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Wong, Vazquez, Contreras, Heaney

By Mark Polishuk | December 6, 2022 at 4:50pm CDT

“No progress towards a deal was made” when the Red Sox and Xander Bogaerts’ agent Scott Boras met yesterday, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes. Earlier reports suggested that other teams had pulled ahead of the Sox in the race to sign the All-Star, though chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Bogaerts was still a major priority for the club.

As one might expect, Boras highlighted the amount of interest his client is generating from multiple teams, while not closing the door on any other suitor. In regards to the Red Sox, Boras said “I just know we continue to talk and have dialogue and continue the process with them. The Red Sox, they kind of have four-star ownership. These guys have proven over time that they win and they pursue winning….I think everyone around them understands the Sox without ‘X’ are So-So.”

While puns are part and parcel of the Boras experience, his agency’s general policy against letting a player’s former team make a so-called final offer is also notable in regards to Boston’s chances. “We’re not the matching kind. We let teams know that they have to assert,” Boras said. “We don’t ever hold back from reaching an agreement with any team and certainly we don’t give market preference to anyone. Otherwise, I think the free agent right would be dampened if you did.”

It remains unclear if re-signing Bogaerts is still a realistic proposition for the Red Sox, and many of the team’s actions over the last year (i.e. the signing of Trevor Story, or a low extension offer to Bogaerts last spring) would seem to suggest that the Sox are preparing for a future without Bogaerts on the roster. Another hint could be Boston’s interest in Kolten Wong, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that the Sox had some talks with the Brewers before Wong was dealt to the Mariners.

A source tells Speier that if the Red Sox had traded for Wong, “it 100 percent would not have taken [them] out of the market” to re-sign Bogaerts. The Sox would have hypothetically used Bogaerts, Story, and Wong in the middle infield mix, or possibly even flipped Wong to another team in a trade if Bogaerts had indeed been re-signed. While Wong seems overqualified for such a part-time role, “the Sox want to explore opportunities to add high-end depth” after injuries hampered the position-player mix in 2022.

If Bogaerts’ future in Boston is still up in the air, another familiar face might be a possibility for the team, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link) reports that the Red Sox were meeting today with Christian Vazquez’s agents. Cotillo did note that this meeting might not directly involve Vazquez, as MDR Sports Management also represents several other players, including free agent catchers Robinson Chirinos and Roberto Perez.

Reese McGuire and Connor Wong are Boston’s incumbent catchers heading into the 2023 season, with prospect Ronaldo Hernandez and recent waiver claim Caleb Hamilton also in the mix. It would seem like the Sox are at least exploring the market for more help behind the plate, given how Boston has been mentioned as one of the many teams with trade interest in the Athletics’ Sean Murphy. However, Cotillo reports that there is “nothing going on” between the Red Sox and the top catcher on the free agent market, Willson Contreras.

Andrew Heaney was also on Boston’s radar this offseason, and Cotillo tweets that the Sox were one of the many teams who made the left-hander a contract offer. The Red Sox fell short, however, as Heaney opted to sign with the Rangers for two years and $25MM in guaranteed money.

Andrew Heaney Has Three-Year Offers, Wants Fourth Year

By Simon Hampton | December 6, 2022 at 1:16pm CDT

1:16PM: The Giants and Rangers are also involved in Heaney’s market, Heyman tweets.

12:23AM: Free agent starter Andrew Heaney has multiple three-year offers on the table, but is looking for a contract that adds a fourth year, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The only known team to have made an offer thus far is a previously reported offer from the Blue Jays, per SportsNet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, although it’s not known if that was a three-year deal.

Heaney has been drawing widespread interest in free agency with as many as ten teams showing interest, including the incumbent Dodgers (via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic), aforementioned Blue Jays, as well as the Mets, Red Sox and others.

Although shoulder issues limited the left hander’s participation in the Dodgers’ season, he was very impressive when he did make it onto the mound, tossing 75 innings of 3.10 ERA ball. A new slider allowed him to punch out batters at a staggering 35.5% rate while walking them just 6.1% of the time. The long ball was still an issue, but there’s plenty there to suggest Heaney can be an incredibly effective starting pitcher moving forward, and clearly a number of major league teams think the same.

MLBTR predicted a three-year, $42MM deal for Heaney, and it’s probably not surprising that it appears teams are a bit hesitant to stretch to a fourth year. As mentioned, he missed three months this season with shoulder problems, while he’s also undergone Tommy John surgery in 2016 and landed on the IL twice in 2018 and ’19 with elbow inflammation.

There’s certainly some question marks over Heaney’s durability, as well as how his newfound success during ’22 with the Dodgers would translate to a new team, but a full season’s worth of Heaney’s output this year would give a new team a dominant, top-of-the-rotation arm, so there’s enormous upside there for teams as well.

Blue Jays Have Made Offer To Andrew Heaney

By Steve Adams | December 5, 2022 at 3:45pm CDT

The Blue Jays are actively exploring the market for rotation help and have put forth an offer to left-hander Andrew Heaney, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Heaney, however, has received varying levels of interest from at least 10 teams and has fielded multiple offers at this point, per the report.

Robust interest in Heaney comes as little surprise. The lefty reportedly drew interest from upwards of a dozen teams last year when he was a rebound candidate seeking a one-year deal in free agency, and while shoulder troubles limited his workload with the Dodgers in 2022, his performance when on the field could scarcely have gone better. Armed with a lethal new slider, Heaney pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 72 2/3 innings.

That’s an impressive mark in and of itself, but Heaney’s secondary metrics were even better. He remained far too susceptible to home runs (1.73 HR/9), but Heaney punched out a ridiculous 35.5% of the batters he faced in 2022 and only allowed walks at a 6.1% clip. No pitcher in baseball last year (min. 70 innings) topped Heaney’s sky-high 16.8% swinging-strike rate, and the only two pitchers who induced chases on pitches off the plate more frequently than Heaney’s 39.5% were Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase and Toronto righty Kevin Gausman.

Heaney has had more than his fair share of injury troubles over the years, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016 before landing on the IL twice with elbow inflammation (2018, 2019) and then missing three months this past season due to shoulder troubles. On a per-inning basis, however, he arguably turned in the best performance of any free-agent starter outside the top tier of Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. The questions teams have to weigh are how much of his newfound Dodgers success is repeatable and just what they feel comfortable projecting for him, workload-wise, in 2023 and beyond.

This marks the second straight offseason in which the Jays have made an offer to Heaney, as Toronto was reportedly among the interested parties to put forth a one-year offer for him last offseason as well. However, while a one-year deal was sufficient for Heaney’s services last November, he appears quite likely to land a multi-year commitment this time around.

Starting pitching has been a priority for the Jays throughout the winter, with Toronto showing interest in starters of a wide array of quality. Nicholson-Smith writes within his Heaney column, for instance, that Toronto was in the mix for Kyle Gibson before he agreed to terms with the Orioles, and he further reports (via Twitter) that the Jays were willing to go multiple years at a high annual value for Verlander before he landed with the Mets earlier today.

As it stands, the Blue Jays have Gausman, Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White as their primary options in the rotation. Manoah and Gausman turned in brilliant 2022 seasons and both received some recognition in Cy Young voting — Manoah finished third, Gausman ninth — but the other three struggled through dismal seasons. Berrios had been one of the game’s most consistent starters before stumbling to a 5.23 ERA in 2022. A pricey upside bet on Kikuchi’s blend of velocity and whiffs didn’t pay off (5.19 ERA), and White was tagged for a 7.74 ERA in 10 games after being acquired from the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery early in the summer.

Meanwhile, right-hander Ross Stripling became a free agent on the heels of the finest season of his career. In 134 1/3 innings, Stripling posted a 3.01 ERA with a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate but an elite 3.7% walk rate. The Jays could always look to re-sign the 33-year-old, but he’s fielding interest from all 30 teams now and seems a good bet to eventually land a multi-year deal himself.

Blue Jays Interested In Andrew Heaney

By Anthony Franco | November 11, 2022 at 11:14pm CDT

The Blue Jays enter the offseason in search of starting pitching, with a few names of note trickling out in the early going. Jon Morosi of MLB.com listed the Jays as a suitor for NPB star Kodai Senga earlier this week, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that southpaw Andrew Heaney is also of interest (Twitter link).

That’s hardly a surprise, as the Jays were one of the teams known to have pursued Heaney when he was a free agent last winter. The former first-rounder instead jumped early to join the Dodgers, inking an $8.5MM deal a few days into the offseason. Heaney will handily beat that sum this time around, as he showed immense promise during what may be his lone season as a Dodger.

Heaney pitched to a 3.10 ERA this past season, striking out an eye-popping 35.5% of batters faced. He’s always blended solid swing-and-miss stuff with decent control, but this year’s strikeout rate was on another level. Heaney also got a swinging strike on an incredible 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any major league pitcher to top 70 innings.

It’s fairly easy to identify reasons behind that success, as he overhauled his pitch mix on the heels of a 5.83 ERA showing in 2021. Heaney developed a slider that instantly became one of the best offerings of its kind, and he turned to that as his go-to secondary offering. He scrapped his curveball and scaled well back on the use of his changeup, and the results were excellent. Heaney did still give up a fair bit of hard contact — an issue that has plagued him throughout his career — but he missed so many bats he managed an ERA just above 3.00 despite serving up 1.73 home runs per nine innings.

Of course, the black mark on Heaney’s ledger was a pair of injured list stints related to discomfort in his throwing shoulder. Those kept him to 16 appearances (14 starts) and 72 2/3 innings, roughly half a season’s workload. Had Heaney stayed healthy the entire season, he’d quite likely have received a qualifying offer from L.A. The Dodgers were concerned enough with his lack of innings they opted against making a QO, even as they extended the offer to fellow offseason signee Tyler Anderson.

That decision does boost Heaney’s free agent stock for other clubs as he enters his age-32 campaign. Signing him won’t cost a team any draft choices and/or international signing bonus space. He’s already gotten hits from a few rotation-needy teams, with the Jays joining the Mets and Red Sox as clubs known to have checked in.

Certainly, Heaney will be one of a number of players under consideration for the Jays this offseason. General manager Ross Atkins told reporters at this week’s GM meetings the team was looking to add to both the starting rotation and the relief corps (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). That could obviously come via free agency or trade, with the team’s catching surplus sure to be a topic of frequent discussion.

Meanwhile, Nicholson-Smith tweeted this week the team has been in touch with Ross Stripling’s camp to express interest in bringing the swingman back. Stripling, who turns 33 this month, bounced back from rough 2020-21 seasons to unexpectedly emerge as one of Toronto’s more reliable arms this year. He started 24 of 32 outings, working to a 3.01 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.7% strikeout rate but a sterling 3.7% walk percentage across 134 1/3 innings. The veteran right-hander is a first-time free agent and looks to have pitched his way to a multi-year deal.

Toronto’s rotation will be anchored by one of the league’s top 1-2 punches: Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah. The final three spots are question marks to varying degrees. José Berríos will occupy a rotation spot but will look to bounce back from a surprising 5.23 ERA showing. The internal favorites for the fourth and fifth spots appear to be Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White, but neither should be a rotation lock for a hopeful contender. White was battered in 10 outings after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, while Kikuchi pitched himself out of the rotation in a dreadful first season of a three-year free agent deal.

Mets Have Interest In Andrew Heaney, Michael Conforto

By Steve Adams | November 11, 2022 at 8:55am CDT

Free agency is officially underway, and with the Mets staring down multiple holes in the rotation, bullpen and lineup, they’ll be among the sport’s more active teams again this winter. A pair of early targets for the team include left-hander Andrew Heaney, per Newsday’s Tim Healey, and old friend Michael Conforto, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.

The interest in Heaney is sensible on many levels. First and foremost, the Mets currently face the possibility of losing Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to free agency. Heaney certainly isn’t going to offset a potential deGrom loss, but the Mets figure to cast a wide net in sifting through starting pitching options, as it’s unlikely that they’ll come to a middle ground and re-sign all three of their rotation free agents. Secondly, GM Billy Eppler knows Heaney quite well, having spent the 2015-20 seasons as the Angels’ general manager; Heaney, while originally acquired when Jerry Dipoto was the Halos’ GM, was with the Angels for all six of those seasons.

Beyond the sheer need in the rotation and the familiarity with the pitcher and person in Heaney, his 2022 breakout with the Dodgers was nothing short of remarkable. A pair of shoulder troubles limited him to 72 2/3 innings, and that’s a concern for any pitcher but especially one with Heaney’s lengthy injury history. However, when he was able to take the mound, the 31-year-old southpaw worked to a tidy 3.10 ERA with the second-best strikeout rate (35.5%) and best swinging-strike rate (16.8%) of the 188 pitchers who tossed at least 70 frames in 2022.

Heaney’s emergence came on the heels of the Dodgers scrapping nearly his entire arsenal. Heaney continued throwing a four-seamer he debuted in 2021 — he’d previously used a sinker as his primary heater — but dumped his changeup and curveball in favor of a new slider that proved to be an absolute knockout offering. Heaney was almost all four-seamers and sliders in 2022, with the lone exception being a 5% usage rate on the aforementioned changeup (which he once threw at a 23% clip).

As for Conforto, a reunion makes some sense — though only if the Mets lose Brandon Nimmo to another club (or feel that his early asking price is simply beyond the pale). The longtime Mets slugger had a down season (by his standards) in 2021, though he still checked in as a slightly above-average offensive contributor. Unfazed by the dip in production, Conforto rejected a qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal but found a frosty market before suffering a shoulder injury that required surgery and ultimately kept him out of action for the entire 2022 season.

Ostensibly, that would set the table for a one-year, make-good deal wherever he signs, but agent Scott Boras has already suggested that Conforto is likely to target a two-year deal with an opt-out — similar to the structure that Carlos Rodon had with the Giants in 2022 (presumably at a decidedly lower total than Rodon’s $44MM). Whether such an offer materializes can’t be known so early in a months-long free agent period.

Signing Conforto would likely mean sliding Starling Marte over to center and bidding farewell to Nimmo, or perhaps committing to Conforto in more of a DH role. The latter scenario might not appeal to a 29-year-old who’s looking to reestablish himself as a credible all-around player, however, and it seems unlikely the Mets would jump the market to sign any outfielder who’d push Marte to center before having a full grasp on Nimmo’s situation.

Payroll shouldn’t be much of an issue for a Mets club that topped $280MM in 2022 and approached $300MM in luxury-tax obligations. Still, it’s worth noting that entering the market, the team projects to a payroll of about $238MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with a bit less than $249MM on the luxury ledger. Finding a taker for Dominic Smith or Darin Ruf (or simply non-tendering the former) could slightly drop those figures, but the Mets are already deep into luxury territory and figure to have little qualms about surpassing the newly implemented fourth tier of penalization for a second straight year.

Red Sox Showing Early Interest In Pitchers; Not Close On Devers Extension

By Simon Hampton | November 10, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

As the off-season gets underway, much of attention around the Red Sox has been focused on the free agency Xander Bogaerts and the ongoing contract talks with third baseman Rafael Devers, but it Boston is showing early interest in adding pitching this winter. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox are “digging around the pitching market”, and have been linked to Andrew Heaney and Seth Lugo among others. Jon Morosi of MLB Network has more on their interest in pitching, stating they’ve shown interest – alongside the Angels – in starter Tyler Anderson.

Boston does have a reasonable amount of pitching signed for next season, but a most of it comes with major question marks. Chris Sale is owed $27.5MM but has made just eleven starts in the past three years. James Paxton opted into his $4MM player option for next season, but he didn’t pitch at all in 2022. Brayan Bello showed promise in eleven starts in 2022 and could have a bright future, but those were the first eleven starts of his major league career and he’s still raw. The Red Sox are intending to use Garrett Whitlock as a starter in 2023, but he’s pitched better out of the bullpen and made just nine starts this season. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the only dependable option in Boston’s rotation at this stage, so it’s no surprise they’re looking to add pitching.

Anderson has enjoyed something of a late breakout with the Dodgers this past season. He generally checked in as a solid, back of the rotation starter across his first six seasons in the majors with the Rockies, Giants, Pirates and Mariners. With the Dodgers however, he tossed 178 2/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball, easily the best numbers of his career and first since 2016 where his ERA had finished under four. A lot of that was due to restricting the long ball, as Anderson’s HR/9 more than halved from 2021 (1.46 down to 0.71). Anderson did receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, so there’s every chance he accepts that one-year, $19.65MM deal and returns to LA.

Heaney, on the other hand, was not tendered a qualifying offer but also enjoyed his own breakout campaign. He pitched to a 3.10 ERA through 72 2/3 innings as a result of leaning more on his slider and less on his changeup. Those numbers came with a significant increase in strikeout rate, as he posted a 35.5% rate, well above his previous high of 28.9% in 2019. He did miss around three months across two separate IL stints with left shoulder problems, so there are some durability concerns.

Lugo has enjoyed six solid seasons pitching out of the Mets bullpen. He threw 65 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, maintaining a strong walk rate of 6.6% and a solid strikeout rate of 25.4%. While it’s not lights out stuff for a reliever, Lugo does have plenty of value as a durable middle reliever. While there’s a case to be made for any or all of these three pitchers finding their way to Boston this winter, it’s still early and the Red Sox will be casting a wide net in their pursuit of pitching.

On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox appear to be some way off agreeing to a contract extension with Devers. The star third baseman will be a free agent after the 2023 season, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that while there is some optimism towards a deal, the two sides remain far apart. Heyman reports that the Red Sox offered Devers a contract slightly above the ten-year, $212MM deal that Austin Riley received from the Braves, but Devers is seeking more than $300MM in an extension.

Devers had another brilliant season in 2022, mashing 27 home runs and compiling a .295/.358/.521 line in 141 games. His wRC+ mark of 140 was the best of his career, but his previous marks of 133, 108 and 132 show he’s regularly been a superb hitter. Defensively, he improved on 2021 but still graded out with negative numbers per Outs Above Average (-2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6). Given he’s already amassed 18.1 fWAR and will be hitting free agency entering his age-27 season, it’s no surprise Devers is seeking big money. The left-hander would be one of the top free agents available on the open market should the Red Sox fail to lock him in before then.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

By Anthony Franco | November 4, 2022 at 4:18pm CDT

The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

Chris Bassitt (Mets)
Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
Willson Contreras (Cubs)
Jacob deGrom (Mets)
Edwin Díaz (Mets)
Aaron Judge (Yankees)
Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
Carlos Rodón (Giants)
Dansby Swanson (Braves)
Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Mitch Haniger (Mariners)

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

Andrew Heaney (Dodgers)

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

Martín Pérez (Rangers)

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Mike Clevinger (Padres)

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Zach Eflin (Phillies)

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

Sean Manaea (Padres)

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Jurickson Profar (Padres)

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Ross Stripling (Blue Jays)

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Michael Wacha (Red Sox)

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

José Abreu (White Sox)
Josh Bell (Padres)
Andrew Benintendi (Yankees)
Carlos Correa (Twins)
Noah Syndergaard (Phillies)
Justin Verlander (Astros)

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

NL West Notes: Soto, Padres, Merrill, Wood, Giants, Heaney, Taylor

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2022 at 10:47pm CDT

Speculation continues to swirl over which team (if any) could pry Juan Soto away from the Nationals before the trade deadline, or even which clubs are the top contenders as we approach August 2. According to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post, the Nats may be “focusing on one or two teams at the moment,” with the Cardinals seen by some rivals as a likely contender to be one of those clubs due to St. Louis’ amount of MLB-ready talent. As far as the NL West goes, however, a rival executive tells The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that “I think San Diego is as likely as the other 28 teams combined. They have the players and they have [A.J.] Preller.”

Certainly, the Padres’ president of baseball operations is always open to bold moves, and that confidence extends to the team’s prospects in the sense that the Padres “are confident they can keep replenishing their farm system.” While San Diego has already dealt quality blue-chippers in other deals over the years, more intriguing new names keep emerging. For instance, Rosenthal writes that teams have shown interest in shortstop Jackson Merrill and outfielder James Wood, the Padres’ two top picks from the 2021 draft. Merrill and Wood were both high school selections who are still a few years away from the bigs, so in regards to Soto, the Padres could hang onto the young duo as future building blocks while dealing other prospects who better fit the Nationals’ demands.

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