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Mets To Promote Top Prospect Brett Baty

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The Mets are calling top infield prospect Brett Baty up to the Major League roster, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). The 2019 No. 12 overall draft pick will need to have his contract formally selected to the 40-man roster. Mike Puma of the New York Post further reports that the move to select Baty won’t officially take place until tomorrow (Twitter link).

New York also appears set to recall righty Stephen Nogosek from Triple-A, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that there’s a locker in the clubhouse for him. Nogosek will likely take the roster spot of Carlos Carrasco, who’s IL-bound due to an oblique strain.

Baty, 22, has split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, posting monster numbers at each stop (albeit through just six games in Triple-A thus far). Ranked as the game’s No. 26 prospect at FanGraphs, No. 28 at Baseball America and No. 38 at The Athletic, the lefty-swinging Baty has turned in an outstanding .315/.410/.533 batting line with 19 home runs and 22 doubles in a combined 420 plate appearances. He’s walked at a hearty 11.7% clip and fanned in 24.8% of his plate appearances so far.

Rumors of a potential Baty promotion were swirling over the weekend, although Mets skipper Buck Showalter briefly put an end to those yesterday, when he specifically indicated that a Baty promotion wasn’t in the cards. Whether that statement only applied to Monday or whether the organization simply had a change of heart matters little at this point. Baty will join the Mets in Atlanta and figures to see regular playing time with Luis Guillorme out up to six weeks and veteran Eduardo Escobar currently banged up. (Teams don’t call up prospects of Baty’s caliber just to sit them on the bench or deploy them in minimal roles.)

Scouting reports on Baty suggest that he’s both begun to elevate the ball more often in 2022 — resulting in an uptick in power output — and improved defensively at the hot corner. The Mets have also tried him out in left field on occasion, but with Guillorme shelved and Escobar not at 100%, Baty seems likely to be installed at his traditional position, third base, for the time being. It’ll be a telling trial run, as Baty has all the tools necessary to be the long-term option at the hot corner in Queens — and this could well be the onset of that anointment.

The Mets are surely more focused on their production over the season’s final few weeks than on Baty’s service time, but it’s still worth quickly touching on his outlook in that regard. Baty can’t get to a full year of service in 2022, nor will he be able to accrue enough time to push the boundaries of Super Two eligibility. Even he’s up for the rest of the season, he’ll still be on track to reach arbitration eligibility following the 2025 campaign and will remain under team control all the way through 2028. Future optional assignments could further push back those critical milestones, of course.

If Baty indeed cements himself as a viable regular in the coming weeks, Escobar’s role on the club will become increasingly murky. Signed to a two-year, $20MM contract in the offseason, the 33-year-old veteran has floundered en route to a .216/.269/.384 batting line through 409 plate appearances. With Baty at third base and Jeff McNeil at second, Escobar’s role would seemingly be relegated to that of a pricey bench piece.

Mets Place Luis Guillorme On Injured List

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The Mets are placing infielder Luis Guillorme on the 10-day injured list due to a groin strain, the team announced. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported the diagnosis and the potential 3-4 week recovery period that Guillorme will need shortly before the team made it official (Twitter link). Once Guillorme recovers from the injury, he’ll need some time to build back up and go out on a rehab assignment, so he could be on the shelf as long as six weeks, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets.

There’d already been some speculation about top prospect Brett Baty joining the Mets to make his big league debut in place of Guillorme, but manager Buck Showalter quashed those rumors in meeting with reporters today. Neither Baty nor Mark Vientos are viewed as options to take Guillorme’s spot on the roster at this time, DiComo tweets.

The loss of Guillorme is tough for the Mets, whose infield mix has thinned out a bit recently. Eduardo Escobar isn’t on the injured list but has been battling oblique discomfort. He’s in the lineup tonight, but the veteran switch-hitter is limited to batting left-handed for the time being. J.D. Davis, meanwhile, was traded to the Giants prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline.

Guillorme has been solid on both sides of the ball in 2022, batting .283/.355/.357 while taking a career-high 289 plate appearances. He’s offered next to no power but has also shown strong bat-to-ball and plate discipline skills, evidenced by a career-low 13.5% strikeout rate and a sharp 10% walk rate.

It’s not yet clear how the Mets will handle filling Guillorme’s spot on the roster, though Showalter indicated that someone is on the way to take that spot, specifically mentioning a need to add a player who can cover some middle infield work as needed, as well. (Guillorme is the team’s lone backup to shortstop Francisco Lindor.) Speculatively, the Mets have both JT Riddle and Deven Marrero as veteran options in Triple-A Syracuse, though there’s been no indication from the team that either is being selected to the MLB roster.

Guillorme isn’t the only player the Mets will be without for the time being, either. Showalter indicated that catcher Tomas Nido is away from the club due to illness, which has prompted the Mets to recall catcher Michael Perez from Triple-A. Perez, acquired from the Pirates in late July, will make his team debut if he gets into a game while Nido is unavailable.

Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

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Juan Soto’s presence on the trade market has, in many ways, held up activity in other areas. Teams like the Cardinals and Padres, generally viewed as two of Soto’s top suitors, are also involved in the market for starting pitching. But, both are surely wary of dealing prospects to acquire a starter (e.g. Oakland’s Frankie Montas) if those same players might eventually be used to pry Soto loose from Washington.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan takes a lengthy look at the logjam Soto has created, writing within that the Yankees are a “long shot at best” to make a play for Soto before the deadline and suggesting that the Rangers, for now, are not a prominent bidder. That meshes with recent reporting from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, who wrote last night that there was “no traction” between the Yankees and Nationals regarding Soto, even though the Yankees reached out as recently as yesterday evening. Heyman adds that the Nationals aren’t as high on top prospect Anthony Volpe as the Yankees and many other clubs are, which is a complicating factor in talks.

The Padres and Cardinals are the most oft-suggested fits for Soto, and with good reason, as both are win-now clubs with deep farm systems who could offer the blend of top prospects and controllable big leaguers the Nationals seek. Passan suggests that the Dodgers are “lurking,” however, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic similarly wrote this morning that the Dodgers have maintained talks with the Nats and should not be ruled out as a potential landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, tweeting that it’s actually the Dodgers — not the Cardinals or Padres — who have been making the most aggressive offers for Soto recently.

The Mariners, another regularly speculated fit for Soto, don’t appear likely to land him at this point. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells The Athletic’s Jim Bowden that while he checked in on Soto, he came away with the impression that there was not a realistic path to acquiring him (Twitter link). Presumably, that came prior to Seattle’s Friday acquisition of Luis Castillo — which cost the Mariners their top two prospects.

The Mets, too, have been speculatively listed as trade partners for the Nats. That’s due largely to the team’s huge payroll and aggressive past year under new owner Steve Cohen. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets believed “relatively quickly in the process” that there’d be such a large market for Soto that Washington wouldn’t have to consider trading him to a division rival. That certainly looks to be the case, although if the Nats do covet the Mets’ best prospects, there’s at least a slim chance of something coming together; both Sherman and SNY’s Andy Martino report that the Mets would only move their very best prospects if it were to acquire Soto or (an even longer shot) Shohei Ohtani. Both reports suggest catcher Francisco Alvarez is off limits unless it’s for one of Soto or Ohtani. Sherman adds third baseman Brett Baty to that list, and Martino suggests third baseman Mark Vientos is viewed similarly.

Regardless of whether Soto specifically changes hands, the market will erupt sometime between now and tomorrow’s 6pm ET deadline. The ticking clock is going to eventually drive teams into activity, and given the lack of movement thus far, we could be in for one of the most active and chaotic 24- to 30-hour spans of deadline dealing we’ve ever seen.

Big Hype Prospects: Baty, Miller, Dominguez, Cowser, Wiemer

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll look at more prospects who could find themselves on the move in the next few days. Check out last week’s Juan Soto Edition of Big Hype Prospects for more deadline trade candidates.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (AA)
350 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .303/.394/.507

The Mets are reportedly trying very hard to hang onto Francisco Alvarez and Baty. To accomplish all of their deadline trade goals, they might not be able to cling to both. Alvarez being the scarcer and flashier talent, I figure he’s less likely to be traded outside of a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani deal. Baty, however, would fit in a swap for any of the next tier of trade targets. Names like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Sean Murphy.

Baty is having a fine season after a bit of a slow start. His performance suggests a readiness for the next challenge. When I see a prospect of this caliber promoted slowly, it leads me to wonder if he’s been held down to ensure his trade value doesn’t take a hit from an untimely slump. Baty makes a ton of hard, low-angle contact. Despite a 26 percent strikeout rate, he regularly hits for a high batting average. He makes the most of his rare air-ball contact thanks to an over 20 percent HR/FB ratio. His batted ball profile reminds me of a slightly better Ryan McMahon.

Bobby Miller, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
76.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.36 ERA

Miller receives plenty of attention for his triple-digit velocity heater, but his results don’t always match the raw stuff. This season, his ERA is a full point higher than his FIP. In the past, we would have shrugged and assumed better days awaited. Unfortunately, it seems his fastball shape and middling command are the culprits. Both issues, should they remain, will only intensify once he reaches the Majors. They could prevent him from realizing his full potential. While some kind of rotation role is likely with a floor as an elite reliever, now could represent a good time for the Dodgers to sell Miller. Some clubs might believe they can fix him.

If the worst outcomes are reminiscent of Sixto Sanchez or Hunter Greene, that’s not a bad thing. Sanchez, you might recall, was dealt for multiple seasons of J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies also included Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot in the deal). Miller might not be quite as beloved as Sanchez was at the time. His plus command helped assuage doubts about a modest strikeout rate. Still, that implies the Dodgers can expect to add a substantial player if they part with Miller.

Jasson Dominguez, 19, OF, NYY (A+)
(A) 423 PA, 9 HR, 19 SB, .265/.373/.440
(A+) 27 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .292/.370/.500

Dominguez is best-known for having the physique of a mid-20s body builder as a 17-year-old. Now 19, the developmentally mature teenager recently earned a promotion to High-A where he’s one of the youngest players on hand (recently promoted Jackson Chourio is the youngest player at the level). Reports heading into this season were mixed with some notes emphasizing his physicality as potentially detrimental. He’s put those concerns to rest while display above average plate discipline with plenty of blistering contact. Presently, he makes a lot of hard, low-angle, pulled contact. He has time to make adjustments to unlock either a more balanced or more power-centric approach.

Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AA)
(A+) 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
(AA) 98 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .324/.480/.689

Cowser is a personal favorite of mine. He has fantastic discipline, a better-than-average swinging strike rate, and a batted ball profile maxed out for high BABIPs. In short, he is the ideal leadoff hitter. His game is a little bit like Alek Thomas – if the DBacks outfielder took a lot more pitches. While an adjustment isn’t strictly necessary, Cowser could probably stand to swing more often. Adding in a little bit loft wouldn’t hurt either. There are a lot of directions this profile can go, and most of them yield some type of really useful ballplayer. To reach a superstar ceiling, he’ll have to take bold risks regarding his approach and mechanics.

Depending on who you talk to, Cowser is the Orioles third- or fourth-best prospect. With their surprise contention, the front office is undoubtedly kicking around ideas. From the perspective of continued employment, it’s safer for Mike Elias to stay the course. If they do spend prospects on reinforcements, they’ll likely either be from the bargain bin or club-controlled for a long period. In the latter scenario, some of their better names like Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg will need to be in play.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, MIL (AA)
364 PA, 15 HR, 24 SB, .243/.321/.446

Wiemer has the look and the size of the notable prospect. At times, he puts up video game numbers as he did in High-A last season. Opinions are divided. Some scouts I spoke with last fall weren’t enamored with his playing style, believing he’d fade into a role player as he advanced through the system. Unaffiliated scouts who are plugged more into the fantasy baseball scene love his combination of power and aggression on the basepaths.

As reported earlier today, the Brewers are looking for mid-tier upgrades like Ramon Laureano. While the club would undoubtedly prefer to hold onto one of their few top prospects, they have one of the weaker farm systems behind Chourio. Their list of attractive trade assets might not extend much beyond Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Ethan Small.

Five More

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): In his latest outing – his first appearance since July 8 – Harrison fanned nine of 10 batters faced. It was a masterful performance. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is ready for the next challenge.

Oswald Peraza, NYY (22): With the Yankees eyeballing a late-October run, one of their young shortstops is probably going to wind up joining another club. While Peraza isn’t as impressive as Anthony Volpe, he still profiles as a future above average shortstop. He’s hit 13 home runs with 24 steals and a .258/.329/.446 triple-slash in 319 Triple-A plate appearances.

Royce Lewis, MIN (23): Lewis showed signs of a breakout in the spring of 2021 before missing the entire season. Then, after showing well in Triple-A and a 41 plate appearance stint in the Majors, he again suffered a season-ending injury. The Twins undoubtedly don’t want to sell Lewis. They stuck it out with Byron Buxton so it’s not as if they’re averse to players with the “injury prone” label. If they’re thirsty enough, he’s a highly valuable prospect who happens to be incapable of helping them contend this season.

Michael Busch, LAD (24): A Busch trade is beginning to feel inevitable. The oldest player featured today, Busch is having a decent but unspectacular campaign at Triple-A. He’s on a tear this month, batting .310/.384/.529 in July (125 wRC+). Since he looks like someone who might need awhile to adjust in the Majors, the Dodgers might prefer to skip that portion of his development by cashing out.

Ricky Tiedemann, TOR, (19): A youthful southpaw who has chewed through the competition, Tiedemann might just be the Blue Jays most sellable prospect. He has a bright and promising future after already succeeding in High-A as a teenager. However, TINSTAAPP applies, and the Jays current contention window may well be closed by the time Tiedemann is big league ready.

Astros Exploring Catching Market, Have Discussed Willson Contreras With Cubs

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The Astros have been linked to Josh Bell a few times in recent days, but the Nationals first baseman isn’t the only rental bat on Houston’s radar. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about catcher Willson Contreras.

More broadly, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning that Houston is looking into ways to add to the catching corps before next Tuesday’s trade deadline. The Astros have been without veteran backup Jason Castro for nearly a month, and manager Dusty Baker indicated over the weekend that Castro wasn’t progressing as hoped (via team field reporter Julia Morales). That has left the club relying on rookie Korey Lee to back up Martín Maldonado. Lee is one of the better prospects in the Houston farm system, but he’s struggled this year in his first extended crack at Triple-A.

Of course, there are myriad ways in which the Houston front office could address the catching group. If they’re committed to keeping Maldonado as the primary backstop, then a veteran depth option in the Tucker Barnhart mold could suffice. The Tigers would certainly be open to moving the impending free agent for a minimal prospect return.

Contreras, on the other hand, would require sending significant talent back to Chicago. He’s a virtual lock to change uniforms within the next week. Because MLB and the Players Association didn’t agree to an international draft, the qualifying offer system for free agents is set to remain in place. The Cubs could theoretically hold Contreras and recoup a draft pick once he signs elsewhere next winter, but they’re far likelier to land a more valuable return via trade.

Maldonado, who has started 70 of Houston’s 97 games behind the plate, is beloved in the clubhouse for his management of the pitching staff. He’s never been a good hitter, though, and his .237 on-base percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 260 hitters with 200+ plate appearances on the season. Maldonado has also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall defender in the eyes of public metrics this season. The Astros clearly believe he brings immense intangible value, but there’s room on paper for an upgrade.

Of course, if the Astros want to keep Maldonado behind the plate, they could make room for Contreras’ bat at other positions. The Cubs backstop has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher. He’s made strides from a pitch framing perspective in recent seasons, improving from one of the league’s worst-rated framers to roughly average in that regard. Passan notes, however, that some contenders have expressed concern about Contreras’ ability to manage a new pitching staff quickly — not an uncommon refrain for catchers who are dealt midseason. Contreras is talented enough a hitter than an acquiring team could plug him in more frequently at first base and/or designated hitter than at catcher for the season’s final few months while still upgrading their offense.

Houston has Yordan Álvarez at DH, although he’s seen sporadic time in left field as well. The clearer path for an offensive upgrade is at first base, where Yuli Gurriel has a disappointing .234/.287/.384 season line. Bell would be a more obvious direct replacement for Gurriel, but it’s not out of the question teams could eye Contreras — owner of a career-best .258/.373/.470 slash — as an option to rotate between DH, first base and catcher rather than as a full-time backstop.

The Astros aren’t the only team in contact with the Cubs about Contreras, of course. The Mets have been tied to him for a few weeks, and both Passan and Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated suggest today he remains a viable target for New York. Ragazzo reports that New York and the Cubs have discussed trade frameworks involving Contreras and Cubs closer David Robertson in a package deal that would send multiple prospects back to Chicago. Ragazzo adds that Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty — the top two prospects in the system in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 — would be off the table. The only other Mets farmhand to make BA’s top 100 is outfielder Alex Ramirez, but players like Matt Allan, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos have been in the recent Top 100 mix for various prospect outlets.

Alderson: Mets Seeking Another Bat, Bullpen Help

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The Mets dropped tonight’s contest against the Braves by a 4-1 score, shrinking their lead in the National League East to  1 1/2 games. At 54-34 with a +70 run differential, New York looks very likely to reach the postseason. Holding off Atlanta to secure a division title and a chance at a top-two seed in the NL (and the associated first-round bye under the new playoff format) is going to be of particular import for the club through the season’s second half.

New York heads into deadline season as obvious buyers, and team president Sandy Alderson shed some light on the club’s target areas today. Chatting with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post on The Show podcast, Alderson indicated the team was prioritizing adding another bat and bolstering the bullpen. He pointed specifically to designated hitter as an area that could be addressed, noting that New York hasn’t gotten the production they’d anticipated out of the position this season.

While he didn’t specifically single out any player who has underperformed in 2022, it’s not especially hard to read between the lines. Aside from quasi-rest days for star first baseman Pete Alonso, the Mets have given virtually all the DH playing time to the duo of J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith. Davis is hitting .240/.328/.353 through 192 plate appearances. Despite strong exit velocities, he’s compiled only 12 extra-base hits (including three home runs). Hitting for power is paramount for Davis, who’s not a strong defender anywhere and is striking out in north of 30% of his trips to the plate.

Smith has had an even tougher year, posting a .203/.281/.301 line in 139 tallies. He’s not connected on a single longball and spent some time on optional assignment to Triple-A Syracuse. Both Davis and Smith have pre-2022 track records of offensive productivity, but their combined .228/.313/.337 showing (entering Tuesday) hasn’t been sufficient for bat-first players.

Over the past few weeks, Heyman has linked the Mets to rental bats Trey Mancini and Nelson Cruz. With Alonso locked in at first base, interest in those players suggested the club was looking into DH possibilities. Alderson flatly stated there’s “probably an opportunity to improve there” and noted that the prospect acquisition cost for defensively-limited bats isn’t likely to be exorbitant.

That could also be true of the bullpen, which Alderson said “needs to be strengthened.” The prospect talent required to land relief help certainly varies depending on the target. Prying away Pirates star closer David Bednar, as an example, would take a massive haul. Yet there are various lower-impact relief arms with lesser windows of remaining control who’d not require a huge prospect return. Mike Puma of the Post suggests (on Twitter) that adding a left-hander could be particularly important; after releasing Chasen Shreve last week, the Mets are down to Joely Rodríguez as the sole southpaw in the bullpen.

Alderson didn’t tip his hand as to specific targets, but there are a number of middle or late-inning arms who look likely to be available. The Cubs (David Robertson and Mychal Givens) and Tigers (Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer and Joe Jiménez) both had multiple relievers placed among MLBTR’s top 50 trade candidates last week. Chafin is one of a handful of southpaws who could change hands, as are Rangers breakout hurler Matt Moore and the D-Backs Joe Mantiply.

While adding a bat and some relief pitching seem to be priorities, Alderson indicated the club didn’t feel a pressing need to address the starting rotation. He pointed to the high acquisition cost that’d be associated with landing an impact starter. Later in the conversation, New York’s president downplayed the possibility of dealing from the top of the farm system in any fashion. “We want to try to preserve the prospects we have,” Alderson told the Post. “We have to be careful about who we move, and for what reasons.” He name-checked catcher Francisco Álvarez and corner infielder Brett Baty as prospects the club was highly unlikely to deal. Alderson pointed to last season’s trade of former first-rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong for half a season of Javier Báez as a deal that dealt a big blow to the farm system in recognition of Crow-Armstrong’s excellent start to the 2022 campaign in Low-A.

The reluctance to deal from the top of the system jibes with a recent report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who wrote last week that the team was likelier to try to leverage their financial power than move top-tier young players. Alderson confirmed as much, saying they’d prefer to “err on the side of money, as opposed to the side of prospects” in trade talks. There’s no guarantee the opportunity to take on a higher-priced player will present itself, but the reluctance to deal from the top of the system seems to cast doubt on the chances of landing an impact starter in the Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas mold.

That may also be true of catcher, where the Mets have gotten lackluster production this season. Willson Contreras is the clear top player available at the position, but the Cubs are sure to land a strong return. New York has James McCann under contract for the next two seasons, but the veteran hasn’t provided much at the plate and is currently on the injured list. That’s left the club to rely on the light-hitting duo of Tomás Nido and Patrick Mazeika.

Álvarez is viewed by most evaluators as the franchise’s catcher of the future, but he’s only 20 years old and was just promoted to Triple-A for the first time. Alderson expressed a desire for him to get extended reps against Triple-A pitching before he’d be considered for an MLB look. That’d seemingly leave catching to Nido and Mazeika until McCann returns, particularly with a thin market at the position. Tucker Barnhart and Kurt Suzuki are impending free agents on non-competitive teams, but neither has played well this season. Roberto Pérez and Mike Zunino may have been trade candidates, but both suffered long-term injuries that take them out of that picture.

Big Hype Prospects: Cruz, Abrams, Volpe, Veen, Wiemer

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This week, we investigate a mix of prospects at a wide range of levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, Pirates (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 247 PA, 9 HR, 11 SB, .232/.336/.422

When Tim Dierkes suggested I run this column, Cruz was his first example of the type of player he wanted to see covered. I’d previously written a fantasy column about “Peripheral Prospects” in this same format covering lesser-known guys like Ken Waldichuk and Brett Kerry. It’s only fitting to touch upon Cruz one more time. While his Triple-A numbers don’t jump off the page, he eventually settled in to the level. Since early-May, he’s batted .280/.374/.520 with an 11.4 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Reportedly, he was disappointed by his initial demotion, and it contributed to his April-long slump.

Since rejoining the Majors, Cruz is 4-for-18 with a stolen base. In four games, he’s already hit four balls over 100-mph, including two lasers over 110-mph. This is consistent with his track record. Cruz is built like a young Aaron Judge, and he hits the ball nearly as hard. His typical angle of contact is geared towards ground ball and line drive contact which could limit his home run production. When he does lift the ball, you can expect to see it soar. Anytime he’s in the lineup, Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in the league.

C.J. Abrams, 21, SS, Padres (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 151 PA, 7 HR, 10 SB, .314/.364/.507

Like Cruz, Abrams had a previous brief taste of the Majors and recently returned for four games. He’s 2-for-15 with one strikeout. Unlike Cruz, his exit velocities have been outright poor – just 81.8-mph. Abrams’ selection to the Padres roster followed on the heels of a particularly torrid multi-week stretch. He hit .398/.442/.519 over his last 95 Triple-A plate appearances. Included in the fun were four home runs, a 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 11.6 percent strikeout rate.

Such production indicated immediate readiness, especially for a prospect of Abrams’ caliber who scouts adore. If there’s a shortcoming in his profile, it’s that he doesn’t walk. It’s not necessarily an issue of discipline. He expands the zone in part because his speed has allowed him to still reach base in the minors. It’s possible he’ll learn to lay off marginal pitches in the Majors to improve his outcomes. If he does, he’ll flower into a high-quality leadoff hitter. There are still questions about his eventual defensive home – and not only because he has to share a field with Fernando Tatis Jr.

The worst-case scenario for Abrams is as an over-aggressive, contact-oriented slasher who plays all over the field. Between injuries and his incredible talent, we haven’t seen Abrams make many adjustments as a professional.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, Yankees (AA)
270 PA, 9 HR, 25 SB, .233/.326/.427

Over the offseason, I was virtually cornered by several Yankees fans who not-so-calmly explained that Volpe was the best prospect since Mike Trout. To the glee of everybody who loves to hate the Yankees, he performed particularly poorly until mid-May. Through May 17, he slashed a meager .170/.297/.330. Optimists cited four reasons he would rebound. First, the talent remained evident. He was working counts (13.8 percent walk rate). His .195 BABIP indicated poor luck. Lastly, he wasn’t the first prospect to wilt in chilly early-season weather.

As the calendar has heated up, so too has Volpe. He’s slashing .292/.356/.517 since May 18, a span of 132 plate appearances. He’s also putting more balls in play (6.8 percent walk rate, 15.9 percent strikeout rate) with a normal .319 BABIP. Volpe is on the shortlist for top prospect remaining in the minors. He’s also making a strong case for promotion to Triple-A – possibly by the end of this month.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, Rockies (A+)
258 PA, 8 HR, 25 SB, .259/.368/.440

The Rockies don’t exactly have an illustrious reputation with prospects. It’s nice to see Veen continue to perform to his draft pedigree. Scouting reports uniformly express concern about his hit tool playing against elite competition. While he possesses considerable raw power, his swing has qualities that some might describe as grooved. Such hitters can still succeed in the Majors. Billy Wagner once ridiculed Pat Burrell’s one-path swing (after allowing a home run). Joc Pederson might be a more relevant groovy comparison as a left-handed hitter with a pretty, loopy swing.

In any event, Veen is on track to spend some time in Double-A this season and debut either late in 2023 or early 2024. He works counts (14.3 percent walk rate) though he is also whiff prone (23.6 percent strikeout rate, 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate). While he’s 25-for-26 on the basepaths this season, it’s not clear if Veen will continue to run as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, Brewers (AA)
267 PA, 15 HR, 20 SB, .272/.348/.531

A divisive prospect, Wiemer is gaining steam as one of those guys who might succeed – perhaps even thrive – despite glaring flaws. He changed his mechanics heading into 2021 and unlocked massive in-game power. He launched 27 home runs in 472 plate appearances last season before tearing through the Arizona Fall League – one home run and a .467/.568/.667 triple-slash in 30 plate appearances.

There’s question if the hit tool will play in the Majors, but the power is evident enough to easily support a low-average approach. A worst-case scenario might look something like Adolis Garcia with plate discipline. Or Adam Duvall with discipline and an eagerness to run. He sells out for pull-side, fly-ball contact. He’s posted high BABIPs at every level, but this is a hitting profile that usually yields low BABIPs due to a cacophony of pulled grounders and easy fly outs. We should see him tested in Triple-A before long. Milwaukee might even need his help in the Majors late in the season if they don’t add outfield depth at the trade deadline.

Having watched him play several games, the energy he gives off evokes Bryce Harper.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (21): Last week’s lead BHP (that’s Big Hype Prospect), I noted Henderson would soon jump from around the 50th prospect to somewhere in the Top 10 as listmakers prepare their midseason updates. Since then, Baseball Prospectus’ Jarrett Seidler indicated Henderson might be the top prospect left in the minors. A highly-placed source at another major industry outlet confirmed Henderson is on a shortlist of about five players for their top prospect. As I understand it, this excludes all prospect-eligible players currently in the Majors like Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, and C.J. Abrams.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): Currently shredding Double-A hitters, Perez is perhaps the most-precocious pitching prospect since Julio Urias. While Urias’ development was eventually delayed by injuries, Perez remains both healthy and effective. Most of what I would say about Perez was gleaned from the Marlins system update posted to FanGraphs earlier today. So, I’ll let you read what Eric Longenhagen has to say directly.

Jeter Downs, Red Sox (23): Downs made his debut recently, struck out three times in four plate appearances, and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A. Once a fairly well-regarded prospect, he’s fallen off the map since joining the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. He still possesses tantalizing power and speed along with decent plate discipline. Unfortunately, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the profile; the kind that’s readily exploitable by seasoned pitchers. The best-case scenario these days is a sort of Dylan Moore-like outcome.

Brett Baty, Mets (22): Baty was, for me, the most visibly impressive prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Like Volpe, he had a chilly start to his Double-A campaign – his second visit to the level. He currently has a 14-game hitting over which he’s tamed his strikeout rate and pulled his season-long batting line up to an above-average .282/.372/.450 performance. Like the most of the other Double-A bats we’ve profiled today, he’s seemingly on the cusp of a promotion.

Noelvi Marte, Mariners (20): Two weeks ago, I noted some in the scouting biz had indicated Marte’s early-career dominance might be linked to physical traits that won’t necessarily scale as he advances to higher levels. In plain English, the boy got big young. Last week, I issued something of a retraction because I’d misplaced my source. Since then, I rediscovered the initial note, and it comes from a highly reputable source with access to dozens of scouts. All of this is to say that Marte doesn’t seem to be the second-coming if you buy into this early-development narrative. Not everybody does! This has been the most contentious take to appear in BHP. I look forward to fomenting more discussion about Marte. For what it’s worth, his June-long slump has continued. He hit .214/.241/.250 over the last week and is at .191/.257/.324 for the month.

Mets Notes: Showalter, Rotation, Infield

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The Mets’ deal with incoming manager Buck Showalter was announced as a three-year contract, but while it was reported to be the most lucrative managerial deal in club history, terms weren’t reported at the time. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets some specifics now, however, reporting that Showalter will be guaranteed $11.75MM in total over the next three years in Queens. He’ll be paid $3.5MM this season before earning $3.75MM in 2023 and $4MM in 2024. The signing falls closely in line with the three-year, $12MM deal that Bob Melvin secured when joining the Padres as their new skipper earlier this winter.

A few more notes on the Mets as fans continue to await meaningful updates in CBA talks…

  • The Mets haven’t been afraid to jump into the deep end of the free-agent market this winter, but despite some recent speculation about the possibility of Clayton Kershaw as a fit, SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets didn’t have any contact with Kershaw’s camp prior to the lockout. As fun as it would be for Mets fans to dream on a rotation spearheaded by Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Kershaw, most expect Kershaw to either remain with the Dodgers or head to the Rangers, whose stadium is a short drive from Kershaw’s home. The Mets were linked to free agent Yusei Kikuchi prior to the lockout, while Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith — either of whom could conceivably be part of a deal to bring in some rotation depth — saw their names pop up on the rumor mill last month. Beyond Scherzer and deGrom, the Mets currently project to lean on Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco and some combination of Tylor Megill and David Peterson at the back of the rotation.
  • Matthew Roberson of the New York Daily News looks at the shortstop situation for both New York clubs, noting that Francisco Lindor’s presence at shortstop and a growing number of upper-level infield prospects could point to an eventual trade for the Mets. Ronny Mauricio is still just 20 years of age but has already reached Double-A, while 22-year-olds Mark Vientos (Triple-A) and Brett Baty (Double-A) will impact the third base situation in the not-too-distant future. There is, of course, room for the entire group to contribute to the Mets simultaneously, depending on position changes and injuries. That said, the presence of three well regarded left-side infield prospects gives the front office plenty of firepower to make deals at some point down the road if newly minted GM Billy Eppler finds a deal to his liking. Both Baty and Mauricio ranked among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects last week, while Vientos landed on a list of 15 more who “just missed.” There’s no indication that the Mets have seriously entertained moving any of Mauricio, Baty or Vientos just yet, but their names will surely be popular as teams talk with the Mets post-lockout and again at the July trade deadline.

Player Pool Additions: Giants, Mets, Rays, Nats

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Teams have been tinkering with their 60-man player pools throughout the 2020 season, at times cutting veterans to make room for prospects and at times cutting bait on some lower-tier organizational pieces in order to make room for more experienced additions (be they via waiver claim, free-agent signing, etc.). There have been several clubs to announce additions to their player pools already Friday, and while such moves seem innocuous, it’s of course worth pointing out that adding a player to the 60-man pool makes him eligible to be traded.

That doesn’t mean all of the players added to pools today are on the trading block — far from it. We’ve also already seen the Marlins (in the Richard Bleier trade) and the Blue Jays (in the Taijuan Walker trade) take advantage of using players to be named later to get around the rule that only players in a 60-man pool are eligible to be traded. Both sent a PTBNL to their trade partner, each of whom is expected to be a non-60-man player that will be announced after the season.

So while not all of today’s additions will change hands, it’s still notable that some of these players now could change hands without needing to be listed as a PTBNL. In that scenario, a new club could get a look at said player at its alternate training site and, if close enough to the Majors, perhaps even promote them in September.

Here’s a quick rundown…

  • The Giants announced that first baseman/outfielder Chris Shaw and righty Melvin Adon were added to the 60-man player pool. Shaw, 26, was San Francisco’s first-round pick (No. 31 overall) back in 2015 and rated among the club’s best prospects for several years. His shine has worn off, however, after some shaky showings in the upper minors and the Majors. Shaw carries a .280/.328/.538 slash in 1092 Triple-A plate appearances but has struck out at a 30 percent clip there. He’s hit .153/.244/.222 in 82 big league PAs. Speculatively, he seems like a change-of-scenery candidate. Adon, also 26, received an 80 grade on his heater at FanGraphs this offseason and was called the hardest thrower in the minors by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel. However, they also gave him just 30 command on the 20-80 scale and called his chances of realizing his ceiling low due to his inability to locate. Adon walked 34 batters, hit another and threw 11 wild pitches in 55 1/3 innings last year.
  • The Mets added third baseman Brett Baty, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Baty, 20, was the No. 12 pick in the 2019 draft and is considered to be among the organization’s top prospects. He divided last year between rookie and Low-A ball, where he batted .234/.368/.452 with seven home runs in 228 plate appearances. Now that Baty’s in the fold, the Mets have all of their top five prospects in the player pool — including Andres Gimenez in the Majors — as DiComo points out.
  • Right-hander Brent Honeywell has been added to the Rays’ pool and reported to their alternate site in Port Charlotte, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. The highly touted Honeywell underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2018, hasn’t pitched since and may not take the mound for the Rays this season. By adding Honeywell to their pool, though, the Rays will give the 25-year-old an opportunity to rehab while facing professional hitters, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes. For now, though, “there are still plenty of boxes” for Honeywell to check before he makes his MLB debut, according to manager Kevin Cash.
  • The Nationals already added righty Sterling Sharp and outfielder Jeremy De La Rosa earlier today (as covered here), and this afternoon they announced two more additions: infielders Jackson Cluff and Drew Mendoza. Both have reported to the alternate site in Fredricksburg. Cluff was a 2019 sixth-rounder who spent his first pro season in Single-A, where he batted .229/.320/.367 with five homers and 11 steals in 280 trips to the plate. The 23-year-old is now generally regarded as one of the Nationals’ top 20 prospects. Mendoza, another 2019 draft choice (third round, No. 94), hovers around Washington’s top 10 farmhands at multiple outlets. The 22-year-old also spent 2019 at Single-A, slashing .264/.377/.383 with four HRs and three steals in 239 plate appearances.

Mets To Sign First-Round Pick Brett Baty

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JUNE 14: The deal will be announced tomorrow, Healey tweets. Baty receives $3.9MM, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link), thus leaving the Mets some added room to work with.

JUNE 11: Mets first-round pick Brett Baty will take a physical and sign a deal with the club this weekend, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. Financial details aren’t known yet, but as the 12th overall selection, Baty’s pick comes with a recommended slot value of $4,366,400.

The 19-year-old Baty is a high school third baseman from Texas who entered the draft as a consensus top 20 prospect. FanGraphs was highest on the now-former University of Texas commit going into the draft, ranking him eighth. Baseball America had Baty at No. 15, while ESPN’s Keith Law and MLB.com placed him 17th.

Although there are concerns about Baty’s age and whether he’ll stick at third base, all of those outlets think a great deal of his power potential and general offensive upside. FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen compare Baty to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman, a first-round pick in 2018 who’s one of the majors’ best prospects.

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